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on Public Economics |
| By: | Christina D. Romer; David H. Romer |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of changes in the level of taxation on economic activity. We use the narrative record -- presidential speeches, executive-branch documents, and Congressional reports -- to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This narrative analysis allows us to separate revenue changes resulting from legislation from changes occurring for other reasons. It also allows us to further separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions, such as countercyclical actions and tax changes tied to changes in government spending, and those taken for more exogenous reasons, such as to reduce an inherited budget deficit or to promote long-run growth. We then examine the behavior of output following these more exogenous legislated changes. The resulting estimates indicate that tax increases are highly contractionary. The effects are strongly significant, highly robust, and much larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes. The large effect stems in considerable part from a powerful negative effect of tax increases on investment. We also find that legislated tax increases designed to reduce a persistent budget deficit appear to have much smaller output costs than other tax increases. |
| JEL: | E32 E62 H30 N12 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13264&r=pbe |
| By: | Carone, Giuseppe; NicodÃÂème, GaÃÂëtan; Schmidt, Jan |
| Abstract: | The governments of the European Union are facing important challenges that may impact both their need and their capacity to collect taxes. First, ageing will increase some social spending while reducing the potential of some tax bases such as labour. Second, globalisation has the potential to increase the mobility of capital and of high-skilled workers, making it more difficult to rely on them as a source of revenues. Finally, the desire to shift tax away from labour and to make work pay while retaining the social models will force Member States to find alternative robust tax bases. This paper reviews the most recent trends in taxation in the European Union and discusses several tax policy issues in the light of those coming challenges. |
| Keywords: | Taxation; Welfare State; European Union; ageing; globalisation |
| JEL: | H20 H50 H10 |
| Date: | 2007–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:3996&r=pbe |
| By: | Dagsvik John. K.; Locatelli Marilena (University of Turin); Strom Steinar (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the properties of a particular sectoral labor supply model developed and estimated in Dagsvik and StrÃÂøm (2006). Agents have preferences over sectors and latent job attributes. Moreover, the model allows for a representation of the individual choice sets of feasible jobs in the economy. The properties of the model are explored by calculating elasticities and through simulations of the effects of particular tax reforms. The overall wage elasticities are rather small, but these small elasticities shadow for much stronger sectoral responses. An overall wage increase and, of course, a wage increase in the private sector only, gives women an incentive to shift their labor supply from the public to the private sector. Marginal tax rates were cut considerably in the 1992 tax reform. We find that the impact on overall labor supply is rather modest, but again these modest changes shadow for stronger sectoral changes. The tax reform stimulated the women to shift their labor from the public to the private sector and to work longer hours. A calculation of mean compensated variation shows that the richest households benefited far more from the 1992 tax reform than did the poorest households. |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:200706&r=pbe |
| By: | Harvie, Charles and Saleh, Ali Salman (University of Wollongong) |
| Abstract: | Since the onset of the Civil War in 1975 Lebanon has experienced burgeoning fiscal deficits and an unsustainable public debt overhang. Much of this arose from the loss of revenues during the period of the Civil War 1975-90 and attempts to maintain basic public expenditure, while from 1990-2006 it reflected post Taif rebuilding and reconstruction of key infrastructure with limited revenue capacity. Considerable progress from the 1990s has been achieved in rebuilding the shattered economy from both public and private international and domestic sources, but its legacy is a huge public debt and a servicing requirement that currently absorbs alone almost 30 per cent of total government revenue and is the highest in the world on a per capita basis. While the need to reduce this debt to a sustainable level would be daunting enough in itself, LebanonâÃÂÃÂs fiscal predicament was further compounded by the outbreak of war with Israel during July-August 2006. The consequence of this 34 day conflagration was the devastation of residential property, vital infrastructure, agricultural production, industrial production, exports, environmental damage, the collapse of tourism and a further erosion of the influence and power of the central government. Estimates of the direct and indirect costs for Lebanon of this relatively brief but devastating war conservatively vary from US$10-15 billion. The implications of such reconstruction and rebuilding costs for the budget and public debt are potentially calamitous for Lebanon. A key question is whether Lebanon can tackle this enormous task in insolation. This paper explores the background to the fiscal crisis, identifies from available literature the extent, nature and cost of the war damage, analyses the options available to the authorities in rebuilding the economy and highlights key policy issues and measures that will be required if a sustainable economic recovery is to be achieved. Despite its demonstrated and remarkable resilience to past trauma the paper concludes that the fiscal crisis makes it impossible for Lebanon to tackle the reconstruction and rebuilding task on its own and particularly in the wake of the events of summer 2006. The country will require substantial and ongoing financial support from international lenders and donors. The success of these efforts in the case of Lebanon is of particular interest as it could well be a microcosm of possible future outcomes for the region more generally. |
| JEL: | E60 E61 E62 E65 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp07-04&r=pbe |
| By: | John H. Mutti; Harry Grubert |
| Abstract: | Migration of intangible assets from the United States to foreign countries has become easier due to the ability of U.S. firms to create hybrid entities in their affiliates abroad and to reach favorable cost sharing agreements with them. This strategy was particularly encouraged by the U.S. adoption of "check-the-box" regulations in 1997. Rather than receive royalties from affiliates abroad, US parent firms have an incentive to retain abroad in low-tax countries a greater share of the return to their US R&D. Evidence from several sources for years that span the 1997 policy change indicate a significant response by US corporations in utilizing this strategy. BEA data indicate affiliate earnings and profits grew more rapidly than royalty payments to US parents. Payments to U.S. parents for technical services rose even faster, as would be called for under cost sharing agreements. Regression analysis of affiliate data shows that parent R&D was a more important determinant of royalty payments to U.S. parents than it was for affiliate earnings and profits in 1996, but by 2002 it played a larger role in earnings and profits than in royalties. Cost sharing payments from affiliates in Ireland and from pure tax havens (Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, and Luxembourg) are particularly significant, both economically and statistically. |
| JEL: | F23 H32 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13248&r=pbe |
| By: | Edward N. Wolff |
| Abstract: | I find here that the early 2000s witnessed both exploding debt and the middle-class squeeze. While median wealth grew briskly in the late 1990s, it fell slightly between 2001 and 2004, while the inequality of net worth increased slightly. Indebtedness, which fell substantially during the late 1990s, skyrocketed in the early 2000s. Among the middle class, the debt-to-income ratio reached its highest level in 20 years. The concentration of investment-type assets generally remained as high in 2004 as during the previous two decades. The racial and ethnic disparity in wealth holdings, after stabilizing during most of the 1990s, widened in the years between 1998 and 2001, but then narrowed during the early 2000s. Wealth also shifted in relative terms, away from young households (particularly those under age 35) and toward those in the 55âÃÂÃÂ64 age group. |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_502&r=pbe |
| By: | Orley Ashenfelter; Stephen Ciccarella; Howard J. Shatz |
| Abstract: | In early 2003, France actively tried to thwart the plans of the Bush administration to build international support for a war to depose Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein. In response, calls in the United States for a boycott of French products, wine in particular, rebounded through all forms of media. In the spring of 2003, French business people even reported that the boycott calls were hurting their U.S. sales. Using a dataset of sales of nearly 4,700 individual wine brands, we show that there actually was no boycott effect. Rather, sales of French wine dipped for two reasons. First, they experience a cyclical peak at holiday time, from November through early January, and the boycott was called during the February to May period. Second, sales of French wine have been in a secular decline in the United States. Sales in February through May 2003 merely stayed on trend. We contrast our results with other recent work that has found evidence of a boycott effect but that omits the holiday effect from several specifications. French wine producers may be having economic problems, but it is not because of their government's foreign policy. |
| JEL: | D12 F14 L66 Q17 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13258&r=pbe |