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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
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Issue of 2022‒07‒11
23 papers chosen by |
| By: | Raphael Auer; Marc Farag; Ulf Lewrick; Lovrenc Orazem; Markus Zoss |
| Abstract: | The phenomenal growth of cryptocurrencies raises important questions about their footprint on the financial system. What role are traditional financial intermediaries playing in cryptocurrency markets and what drives their engagement? Are new nodes emerging? We help answer these questions by leveraging a novel global supervisory database of banks' cryptocurrency exposures and by synthesising a range of complementary data sources for other types of institutions. We find that major banks' exposures currently remain at very modest levels. Across countries, higher innovation capacity, more advanced economic development, and greater financial inclusion are associated with a higher likelihood of banks taking on cryptocurrency exposures. We show that substantial activity is concentrated in lightly regulated crypto exchanges. This "shadow crypto financial system" serves both retail and institutional clients, such as dedicated investment funds. An uneven regulatory treatment across banks and crypto exchanges and significant data gaps suggest that a proactive, holistic and forward-looking approach to regulating and overseeing cryptocurrency markets is needed. It should focus on ensuring a more level playing field with regard to financial services provided by established financial institutions and intermediaries in the emerging crypto shadow financial system by introducing more stringent regulatory and supervisory oversight for the latter. |
| Keywords: | cryptocurrencies, decentralised finance, digital currencies, financial regulation, financial supervision, exchange, stablecoin, Bitcoin, Ethereum |
| JEL: | E42 G12 G21 G23 G28 O33 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1013&r= |
| By: | Anantha Divakaruni; Peter Zimmerman |
| Abstract: | The Lightning Network (LN) is a means of netting Bitcoin payments outside the blockchain. We find a significant association between LN adoption and reduced blockchain congestion, suggesting that the LN has helped improve the efficiency of Bitcoin as a means of payment. This improvement cannot be explained by other factors, such as changes in demand or the adoption of SegWit. We find mixed evidence on whether increased centralization in the Lightning Network has improved its efficiency. Our findings have implications for the future of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment and their environmental footprint. |
| Keywords: | bitcoin; blockchain; cryptocurrency; Lightning Network; payments |
| JEL: | E42 G10 |
| Date: | 2022–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:94363&r= |
| By: | Oksana Bashchenko (Swiss Finance Institute - HEC Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | I propose a new methodology to construct interpretable, fundamental-based pricing factors from news to explain Bitcoin returns. Each news article from a specialized cryptocurrency website is classified in a semi-supervised manner into one of the few predefined topics. Topic sentiments become factors contributing to the price variation. I use a cutting-edge NLP algorithm (SBERT network) to embed linguistic data into a vector space, which allows the application of an intuitive classification rule. This approach permits the exclusion of news pieces that describe the price movements per se from the analysis, thus mitigating endogeneity concerns. I show that non-endogenous news contains fundamental information about Bitcoin. Thus I reject the concept of Bitcoin price being based on pure speculation and show that Bitcoin returns are partially explained by fundamental topics. Among those, the adoption of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology is the most important aspect. On top of that, I study the media expressed attitude toward Bitcoin from the functions of money perspective. I show that investors consider Bitcoin as the store of value rather than the medium of exchange. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, Natural Language Processing, BERT. |
| JEL: | C45 C55 C80 G12 G19 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2248&r= |
| By: | Oz Shy |
| Abstract: | Digital forms of payment are either not accessible or highly costly for unbanked consumers. This is because these forms of payment must be "funded" by some source of money, such as cash or a bank account. That creates the "last-mile" problem for the unbanked. This article examines various solutions for the funding problem that have been proposed in the literature, by regulators, and in bills submitted to Congress. |
| Keywords: | payments inclusion; financial inclusion; unbanked; digital currency; digital payments; central bank digital currency |
| JEL: | G28 G59 O33 O35 O38 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:a00001:94158&r= |
| By: | Huyền, Đoàn Thị Ngọc |
| Abstract: | BITCOIN – “NGỖNG ĐẺ TRỨNG VÀNG” hay LŨNG ĐOẠN THỊ TRƯỜNG? |
| Date: | 2022–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5byf7&r= |
| By: | Dirk Zetzsche; Linn Anker-Sørensen; Maria Lucia Passador; Andreas Wehrli |
| Abstract: | Financial law and regulation have, to date, assumed that regulated activities and functions are concentrated in a single legal entity responsible and accountable for operations and compliance. Even with regard to financial market infrastructure where the regulatory perspective acknowledges the need for interoperability of many entities as a system, each entity is subject to its own rules and regulations, and can thus meet its own compliance requirements independent of other system participants. The entity-focused regulatory paradigm is under pressure in the world of DLT-based payment arrangements where some ledgers, and thus the performance of the services as such, are distributed. DLT arrangements could provide an alternative to the traditional reliance on a mutually trusted central entity to transfer funds and enable the creation of new foundational infrastructures by distributing technical functions or linking existing systems. As such, we identify and outline concepts for use cases where DLT is potentially improving the efficiency of cross-border payments, namely a Best Execution DLT, a DLT application for a Network of Central Banks, a DLT as an AML/KYC utility, as well as DLT arrangements for an Identity Platform, a Small Payments Platform and, finally, an Interoperability Platform connecting multiple closed-loop and proprietary banking systems. |
| Keywords: | distributed ledgers, blockchain, payments, central banks, cross-border payments, law |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G28 E42 E58 K23 K24 O16 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1015&r= |
| By: | Jean-Claude Kouladoum (University of Moundou, Chad); Muhamadu Awal Kindzeka Wirajing (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Tii N. Nchofoung (University of Dschang, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The study investigates the digital technology-financial inclusion nexus in 43 Sub-Saharan African countries between 2004 and 2019. The methodologies are the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) to take care of double causality and country heterogeneity and IV-Tobit to take into account the limited range in the dependent variables. At all levels, digital technology measured by ICT indicators of the subscription rate of fixed and mobile telephone users, fixed broadband, internet users and a composite indicator of digitalization have positive significant effects on financial inclusion. A further robustness check is conducted by computing a composite indicator of financial inclusion to determine how it is affected by digital technology. The findings indicate that the rate of financial inclusion in Sub Saharan Africa rises with increasing digital technologies. There should be more investments in terms of promoting financial and technological infrastructures and also in the human capital sector since financial literacy can play an important part in promoting financial stability and inclusive finance in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Digital Technologies; Financial inclusion; Sub Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/034&r= |
| By: | Joop Age Harm Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Panu Poutvaara |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present theory and global evidence on how mobile internet access affects desire and plans to emigrate. Our theory predicts that mobile internet access increases desire and plans to emigrate. Our empirical analysis combines survey data on 617,402 individuals from 2,120 subnational districts in 112 countries with data on worldwide 3G mobile internet rollout from 2008 to 2018. We show that an increase in mobile internet access increases the desire and plans to emigrate. Instrumenting 3G rollout with pre-existing 2G infrastructure suggests that the effects are causal. The effect on the desire to emigrate is particularly strong in high-income countries and for above-median-income individuals in lower-middle-income countries. In line with our theory, an important mechanism appears to be that access to the mobile internet lowers the cost of acquiring information on potential destinations. In addition to this, increased internet access reduces perceived material well-being and trust in government. Using municipal-level data from Spain, we also document that 3G rollout increased actual emigration flows. |
| Keywords: | migration aspirations, migration intentions, internet access |
| JEL: | F20 L86 D83 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9758&r= |
| By: | Rafael Jimenez-Duran |
| Abstract: | Social media platforms ban users and remove posts to moderate their content. This "speech policing" remains controversial because little is known about its consequences and the costs and benefits for different individuals. I conduct two field experiments on Twitter to examine the effect of moderating hate speech on user behavior and welfare. Randomly reporting posts for violating the rules against hateful conduct increases the likelihood that Twitter removes them. Reporting does not affect the activity on the platform of the posts' authors or their likelihood of reposting hate, but it does increase the activity of those attacked by the posts. These results are consistent with a model in which content moderation is a quality decision for platforms that increases user engagement and hence advertising revenue. The second experiment shows that changing users' perceived content removal does not change their willingness to pause using social media, a measure of consumer surplus. My results imply that content moderation does not necessarily moderate users, but it marginally increases advertising revenue. It can be consistent with both profit- and welfare-maximization if out-of-platform externalities are small |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:natura:00754&r= |
| By: | Nurrahmah, Faiza |
| Abstract: | Online business is a kind of business that has emerged since the widespread use of the Internet in society. This business offers convenience for people who want to shop without leave their house. Only by using a device connected to the internet, everyone can order an item and wait for the courier to come to the house to bring the purchased item. In addition to buyers, online businesses also provide benefits for sellers. With an online business, a seller does not need to rent a shop to sell his wares because wares is only stored in a warehouse and only be taken out when someone wants to buy the wares. |
| Date: | 2021–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fq2zd&r= |
| By: | Syed Abul, Basher; Perry, Sadorsky |
| Abstract: | Bitcoin has grown in popularity and has now attracted the attention of individual and institutional investors. Accurate Bitcoin price direction forecasts are important for determining the trend in Bitcoin prices and asset allocation. This paper addresses several unanswered questions. How important are business cycle variables like interest rates, inflation, and market volatility for forecasting Bitcoin prices? Does the importance of these variables change across time? Are the most important macroeconomic variables for forecasting Bitcoin prices the same as those for gold prices? To answer these questions, we utilize tree-based machine learning classifiers, along with traditional logit econometric models. The analysis reveals several important findings. First, random forests predict Bitcoin and gold price directions with a higher degree of accuracy than logit models. Prediction accuracy for bagging and random forests is between 75% and 80% for a five-day prediction. For 10-day to 20-day forecasts bagging and random forests record accuracies greater than 85%. Second, technical indicators are the most important features for predicting Bitcoin and gold price direction, suggesting some degree of market inefficiency. Third, oil price volatility is important for predicting Bitcoin and gold prices indicating that Bitcoin is a substitute for gold in diversifying this type of volatility. By comparison, gold prices are more influenced by inflation than Bitcoin prices, indicating that gold can be used as a hedge or diversification asset against inflation. |
| Keywords: | forecasting; machine learning; random forests; Bitcoin; gold; inflation |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G17 |
| Date: | 2022–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113293&r= |
| By: | Fuyuki Saruta (Faculty of Commerce, Doshisha University and Junior Research Fellow, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | We investigate a two-sided market model in which two platforms compete for sellers and buyers who can participate in multiple platforms (multihoming), and one of the two platforms can make exclusive contracts with sellers. The platform faces a trade-off when it enters into exclusivity agreements with sellers, which gives it an advantage when competing for buyers but reduces its revenue from the seller side. In addition, we expect that the existence of multihoming buyers weakens the platform’s incentive to have an exclusive contract with sellers. Even when buyers can multihome, does a platform have an incentive to make exclusive contracts with sellers? If so, how does exclusive dealing affect social welfare? We obtain the following results. First, in equilibrium, the platform makes exclusive contracts with all sellers or not at all. It offers exclusive contracts to all sellers if the revenue from the buyer side is expected to be somewhat higher than the revenue from the seller side; if sellers' network externality on buyers is sufficiently large (small), it chooses fully exclusive dealing (nonexclusive dealing). Second, exclusive dealing is preferable (detrimental) to social welfare when the network externality is sufficiently large (small). Exclusive dealing encourages the multihoming of buyers, which allows agents to have more interactions on one platform and prompts more buyers to obtain stand-alone benefits from multiple platforms. |
| Keywords: | Matching; Exclusive contracts; Two-sided markets; Multihoming; Platform competition |
| JEL: | D43 D62 L13 L14 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2022-26&r= |
| By: | Nobuyuki Hanaki; Takahiro Hoshino; Kohei Kubota; Fabrice Murtin; Masao Ogaki; Fumio Ohtake; Naoko Okuyama |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the results of an experiment conducted both in the laboratory and online with participants recruited from the same subject pool using the Trustlab platform. This platform has been used to obtain incentivized and internationally comparable behavioral economics measures of altruism, cooperation, reciprocity, trust, and trustworthiness, employing representative samples in many countries. We find little significant difference between the results from sessions conducted in the laboratory and online. While the existing literature shows that the choice between laboratory and online experiments can cause differences in results in some cases, our findings support the hypothesis that they do not cause differences in the behavioral economics measures when using the Trustlab platform. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1168r&r= |
| By: | Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Emmanuel Gbolonyo (University of Cape Town, South Africa); Marcel A. T. Dossou (Chengdu, Sichuan, China.); Richard K. Nkrumah (University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana) |
| Abstract: | The study employs macro data on 42 African countries to examine whether remittances and financial development (including its sub-components of access, depth and efficiency) contribute to the equalisation of incomes across the continent. Robust evidence from the dynamic GMM estimator shows that: (i) remittances heighten income inequality in Africa, (ii) Africa’s financial system is not potent enough for repacking remittances towards the equalisation of incomes, and (iii) vis-Ã -vis financial access and depth, inefficiencies characterising Africa’s financial institution is the main reason remittances contribute to the widening of the income disparity gap. Nonetheless, the optimism which we provide by way of threshold analysis shows that channelling efforts into the development of Africa’s financial sector could yield shared income distribution dividends. In particular, efforts should be made to achieve a minimum of 23.05 per cent of financial access, and 3.02 per cent for that of efficiency of financial institutions if Africa’s financial sector is to repackage external finance towards the equalisation of incomes. A few policy recommendations are provided in the end. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Financial Development, Financial Sector Efficiency; Income Inequality, Remittances |
| JEL: | F22 F24 G21 I3 N37 O11 O55 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/035&r= |
| By: | Galenianos, Manolis; Gavazza, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | We build a framework to understand the effects of regulatory interventions in creditmarkets, such as caps on interest rates. We focus on the credit card market, in whichwe observe U.S. consumers borrowing at high and very dispersed interest rates despitereceiving many credit card offers. Our framework includes twomain features to accountfor these patterns: the endogenous effort of examining offers and product differentiation.Our calibration suggests that most borrowers examine few ofthe offers they receive, andthereby forego cards with low interest rates and high non-price benefits. The calibratedmodel implies that interest-rate caps reduce credit supplyand significantly curb lenders’market power, thereby increasing consumer surplus. Moderate caps may yield largergains in consumer surplus than tighter ones. |
| Keywords: | 771004 |
| JEL: | D83 D14 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:113612&r= |
| By: | Barragán-Tandapilco, Jonathan Xavier |
| Abstract: | An introduction to the field of cryptocurrencies is made, to later develop the central idea, which deals with whether cryptocurrencies are a benefit or a curse for Ecuadorians, analyzing together with what the ECB and the Monetary and Financial Code tell us about this matter. Finally, a conclusion is made that adapts to the new era of new technological and financial innovation, without the desire to infer personal financial decisions, and as explained in this article, due to price volatility, there may be large losses. economic, so all the information compiled is left to the free interpretation of the readers. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrencies, Digital Economy, DAO, Crypto-Economy |
| JEL: | A22 G33 O16 Z00 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113259&r= |
| By: | \.Ibrahim Halil Efendio\u{g}ku |
| Abstract: | With the rapid increase in the use of social media in the last decade, the conspicuous consumption lifestyle within society has been now transferred to the social media. Along with the changing culture of consumption, the consumer who witnesses such portrayals on social media aspires to and desires the same products and services. Having regard to this situation, this study examines the impact of the conspicuous consumption trend in social media on purchasing intentions. Accordingly, the study aims to discover whether social media is being used as a conspicuous consumption channel and whether these conspicuous portrayals affect purchasing intentions |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2205.12026&r= |
| By: | Douglas Arner; Ross Buckley; Thomas Lammer; Dirk Zetzsche; Sangita Gazi |
| Abstract: | In October 2020, the G20 endorsed a significant initiative to enhance cross-border payments. Faster, cheaper, more transparent, and more inclusive cross-border payment services will deliver widespread benefits for citizens and economies worldwide, supporting economic growth, international trade, global development, and financial inclusion. Enhancing cross-border payments requires more than mere adoption of technical standards. The best outcome involves aligned technological, regulatory, and legal frameworks. This paper analyzes such payment integration projects. Each border adds to the costs of a cross-border payment if crossing the border means entering into a different technological, regulatory and legal environment, with different systems, regulators, and courts. Under ideal circumstances, cross-border payments will be processed as seamlessly as comparable domestic payments, even where various currencies are processed. While this highly ambitious target is unlikely to be achieved globally in the short to medium term, regionally, the gap between cross-border and domestic payments has already been narrowed. At the global level, mismatches between the inter-institutional framework on the back-end and the contractual relationship with clients on the front-end represent potential costs for the payment services provider and increase legal risk, prompting costly legal, due diligence manual adjustments in payments processes. A high degree of cross-border harmonization via rulebooks along the technological, regulatory, and legal dimensions has been instrumental for successful regional integration projects and has promoted straight-through-processing. Potentially costly events such as rejects, returns, and revocations of payment orders have been reduced, sanction screening and financial crime compliance processes agreed. Drawing on this insight, this paper suggests globally coordinated action to develop a comprehensive framework to guide and support regional payment integration. This we call a "Single Rule Book." Such a Single Rule Book could be instrumental in enhancing safety, efficiency, and integrity in cross-border payments. We explore its potential contents, and importantly, the minimum standards it would impose. |
| Keywords: | payments, cross-border payments, central banks, harmonization of law |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G28 E42 E58 K23 K24 O16 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1016&r= |
| By: | Mary Amiti; Oleg Itskhoki; Jozef Konings |
| Abstract: | There are around 180 currencies in the world, but only a very small number of them play an outsized role in international trade, finance, and central bank foreign exchange reserves. In the modern era, the U.S. dollar has a dominant international presence, followed to a lesser extent by the euro and a handful of other currencies. Although the use of specific currencies is remarkably stable over time, with the status of dominant currencies remaining unchanged over decades, there have been decisive shifts in the international monetary system over long horizons. For example, the British pound only lost its dominant currency status in the 1930s, well after Britain stopped being the leading world economy. In a new study, we show that the currency that is used in international trade transactions is an active firm-level decision rather than something that is just fixed. This finding raises the question of what factors could augment or reduce the U.S. dollar’s dominance in world trade. |
| Keywords: | currency invoicing; exporters; trade; US dollar |
| JEL: | E2 F0 |
| Date: | 2022–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:94360&r= |
| By: | \.Ibrahim Halil Efendio\u{g}lu; Adnan Talha Mutlu; Yakup Durmaz |
| Abstract: | The aim of the study is to determine the effect of the brand on purchasing decision on generation Y. For this purpose, a face-to-face survey was conducted with 231 people in the Y age range who have purchased mobile phones in the last year. The study was conducted with young academicians and university students working in Harran University Vocational High Schools. The collected data were analysed with AMOS and SPSS statistical package programs using structural equation modelling. According to the results of the research, the prestige, name and reliability of the brand have a significant impact on the purchase decision of the Y generation. Price, advertising campaigns and technical services of the brand also affect this decision less. On the other hand, the place where mobile phone brands are produced and the importance they attach to social responsibility projects do not affect the purchasing decision. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2205.13367&r= |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this special issue is to contribute to the growing body of literature on the externalities of information technology within the specific remit of the relationship between information technology and sustainability outcomes in developing countries, not least because of the sparse scholarship on the subject focusing on developing countries. Each of the seven selected contributions to knowledge solidly stands on its own merits, as summarized in three main strands, notably: (i) information technology usage; (ii) the nexus between ICT and growth outcomes at the urban and national levels and (iii) leveraging on ICT for poverty reduction. |
| Keywords: | Information technology; sustainability; developing countries |
| JEL: | D10 D14 D31 D60 O30 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:22/028&r= |
| By: | Arvind Krishnamurthy; Wenhao Li |
| Abstract: | Bank-created money, shadow-bank money, and Treasury bonds all satisfy investors' demand for a liquid transaction medium and safe store of value. We measure the quantity of these three forms of liquidity and their corresponding liquidity premium over a sample from 1934 to 2016. We empirically examine the links between these different assets, estimating the extent to which they are substitutes, and the amount of liquidity per unit delivered by each asset. Treasury bonds and bank deposits are imperfect substitutes, in contrast to the findings of perfect substitutes of Nagel (2016). This result is directly relevant to the monetary transmission mechanism running through shifts in asset supplies, such as quantitative easing policies. Our results on the imperfect substitutability of bank and shadow-bank money also inform analyses of the coexistence of the shadow-banking and regulated banking system. We construct a new broad monetary aggregate based on our estimates and show that it helps resolve the money-demand instability and missing-money puzzles of the monetary economics literature. |
| JEL: | E41 E43 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30051&r= |
| By: | Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul |
| Abstract: | The Western-dominated Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) is considered the cornerstone of global financial transactions. It was founded in 1973 as a diplomatic alternative to the intense rivalry between New York and London. SWIFT is designed to make international payments quickly and efficiently. However, past examples show that SWIFT can also be used as a weapon, even though it is nominally independent. Alternative global financial transaction systems have been founded due to this possibility of SWIFT being used a weapon. Russia’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) managed one-fifth of all Russia’s financial communications by the end of 2020. China’s Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is tiny compared to SWIFT, but already has users in over a hundred countries. CIPS will likely expand its reach and will be seen as an alternative to US and EU-driven Western banking systems. The EU, on 2 March 2022, announced that the Union "agreed to exclude key Russian banks from the SWIFT system". Given that there are already small yet viable alternative global financial transaction systems to SWIFT, it would be prudent not to exclude the possibility that this sanction will cause tectonic shifts on the global financial system. |
| Date: | 2022–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bu37a&r= |