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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
| By: | Charles Shaw |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the time series properties of cryptocurrency assets, such as Bitcoin, using established econometric inference techniques, namely models of the GARCH family. The contribution of this study is twofold. I explore the time series properties of cryptocurrencies, a new type of financial asset on which there appears to be little or no literature. I suggest an improved econometric specification to that which has been recently proposed in Chu et al (2017), the first econometric study to examine the price dynamics of the most popular cryptocurrencies. Questions regarding the reliability of their study stem from the authors mis-diagnosing the distribution of GARCH innovations. Checks are performed on whether innovations are Gaussian or GED by using Kolmogorov type non-parametric tests and Khmaladze's martingale transformation. Null of gaussianity is strongly rejected for all GARCH(p,q) models, with $p,q \in \{1,\ldots,5 \}$, for all cryptocurrencies in sample. For tests of normality, I make use of the Gauss-Kronrod quadrature. Parameters of GARCH models are estimated with generalized error distribution innovations using maximum likelihood. For calculating P-values, the parametric bootstrap method is used. Arguing against Chu et al (2017), I show that there is a strong empirical argument against modelling innovations under some common assumptions. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1804.07978&r=pay |
| By: | Mohammad Davoodalhosseini; Francisco Rivadeneyra |
| Abstract: | We present a policy framework for electronic money and payments. The framework poses a set of positive questions related to the areas of responsibility of central banks: payments systems, monetary policy and financial stability. The questions are posed to four broad forms of e-money: privately or publicly issued, and with centralized or decentralized verification of transactions. This framework is intended to help evaluate the trade-offs that central banks face in the decision to issue new forms of e-money. |
| Keywords: | Digital currencies; Monetary policy; Payment clearing and settlement systems |
| JEL: | E41 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:18-5&r=pay |
| By: | Benito Arruñada; Luis Garicano |
| Abstract: | By allowing networks to split, decentralized blockchain platforms protect members against hold up, but hinder coordination, given that adaptation decisions are ultimately decentralized. The current solutions to improve coordination, based on “premining” cryptocoins, taxing members and incentivizing developers, are insufficient. For blockchain to fulfill its promise and outcompete centralized firms, it needs to develop new forms of “soft” decentralized governance (anarchic, aristocratic, democratic, and autocratic) that allow networks to avoid bad equilibria. |
| Keywords: | blockchain, Platforms, Networks, hold-up, Coordination, relational capital, incomplete contracts, decentralized governance |
| JEL: | D23 L12 L22 L86 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1038&r=pay |
| By: | Haibo Chen |
| Abstract: | Money was invented to address the difficulty in the double coincidence of wants between the supply and demand when people exchanged their goods and services. There are two information states in society: one is the initial state that people have goods and services due to division of labor; the other is the final state that people have different goods and services with the initial state due to exchange of goods and services between them. The process is that the initial state is changed to the final state with the help of money. Because the direct exchanges of goods and services are difficult to achieve the double coincidence of wants in time and space, it can be achieved with the help of money which is as a medium and bridge. In this paper the changing process of the state information is analyzed through the matrix representation of money, and then the nature of money with a kind of information of reliable ledger is more apparently shown. This paper also analyzes the common characteristics of physical money, electronic money and digital currency, that is, reliable ledger and explores the future trend of money development from the perspective of history and security technology of money. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1804.06710&r=pay |
| By: | McAleer, M.J.; Oláh, J.; Popp, J. |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is to present arguments for and against the use of the Impact Factor (IF) in a rapidly changing digital world. The paper discusses the calculation of IF, as well as the pros and cons of IF. Editorial policies that affect IF are examined, and the merits of open access online publishing are presented. Scientific quality and the IF dilemma are analysed, and alternative measures of impact and quality are evaluated. The San Francisco declaration on research assessment is also discussed. |
| Keywords: | Impact Factor, Quality of research, Pros and Cons, Implications, Digital world, Editorial policies, Open access online publishing, SCIE, SSCI |
| JEL: | O34 O31 D02 |
| Date: | 2018–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:105877&r=pay |
| By: | Minou Weijs-Perrée; Jasper Van de Koevering; Rianne Appel-Meulenbroek; Theo Arentze |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, the usage of mobile technology increased and the attitude towards work changed, which made it possible to work anywhere at any time. However, workers are still looking for work environments that stimulate the work/life balance, networking and collaboration possibilities. This had led to the growing popularity of coworking spaces.Still little is known about the specific preferences of users of these coworking spaces. The aim of this research is therefore to analyze user preferences for coworking space characteristics.Stated choice data was collected by means of a questionnaire with 9 choice sets that was completed by 219 respondents of 16 coworking spaces in the Netherlands. In addition, respondents were asked about socio-demographic characteristics, work-related characteristics and their motivations to work at a coworking space. A mixed logit model was used to analyze the user preferences.Results provide owners or managers of coworking spaces with more insight about the preferences of users of coworking spaces. They could adapt to these preferences by offering coworking spaces with diverse workspaces, facilities and services. |
| Keywords: | Coworking spaces; mixed logit model; stated choice method; User Preferences |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_88&r=pay |
| By: | Joel Cariolle (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Maëlan Le Goff (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France); Olivier Santoni (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence on the impact of fast Internet on firm performance in developing and transition economies. Over the last three decades, international connectivity has been boosted by the laying of more than 300 submarine telecommunications cables (SMC). Almost all coastal developing and transition countries are plugged into the global Internet, so the remaining structural impediments to the Internet economy’s growth are twofold: first, the digital isolation induced by the distance of Internet users from key telecommunications infrastructures; and second, the country’s exposure to SMC outages. We therefore adopt an instrumental variable (IV) approach reflecting these two sources of digital vulnerability. Exploiting the hierarchical structure of the World Bank Enterprise Survey dataset, multilevel IV estimations are conducted on a large sample of firms from more than 2,600 locations in some 60 developing and transition countries. They stress the large local impacts of an increase in the local incidence of email use by firms, induced by a lesser digital vulnerability, on a firm’s average annual sales and sales per worker, and, to a lesser extent, on temporary employment. Estimated relationships are robust across a range of alternative sampling and specifications. |
| Keywords: | NICT,submarine cables,infrastructures,telecommunications,firm performance |
| Date: | 2018–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01758660&r=pay |
| By: | Katz, Raúl L. |
| Abstract: | En este documento se analiza la oferta de programas de capacitación en tecnologías digitales maduras en siete países de la región (Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia México, Perú y Uruguay). La mayoría de los programas censados incluyen cursos relacionadas con robótica / control, inteligencia artificial / aprendizaje de máquinas, o big data / analíticos. Como datos relevantes, el estudio indica que el país que ofrece el número mayor de cursos en tecnologías digitales avanzadas es Brasil y el menor, Uruguay. Asimismo, se observa una clara brecha de oferta en los programas de capacitación de alto nivel. Esto tiene un impacto en el nivel y recursos dedicados a investigación y desarrollo en la región. En lo que se refiere a la concentración en tecnologías de avanzada, la robótica y control tienden a concentrar la mayor parte de la oferta de capacitación.Por último, se ha identificado que la educación superior en la región se caracteriza por un sistema fragmentado y diversificado, en el que los sistemas de educación superior privados prevalecen sobre los públicos. En este sistema proliferan las instituciones destinadas a ofrecer programas de formación superior de forma descoordinada, sin responder a una matriz de desarrollo educativo uniforme orientada a aumentar la dotación de capital humano de los países. |
| Keywords: | INTERNET, SOCIEDAD DE LA INFORMACION, RECURSOS HUMANOS, FORMACION PROFESIONAL, TECNOLOGIA DIGITAL, PROGRAMAS DE EDUCACION, INDICADORES EDUCATIVOS, INTERNET, INFORMATION SOCIETY, HUMAN RESOURCES, VOCATIONAL TRAINING, DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY, EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMMES, EDUCATIONAL INDICATORS |
| Date: | 2018–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col026:43529&r=pay |
| By: | Linda Schilling; Harald Uhlig |
| Abstract: | How do Bitcoin prices evolve? What are the consequences for monetary policy? We answer these questions in a novel, yet simple endowment economy. There are two types of money, both useful for transactions: Bitcoins and Dollars. A central bank keeps the real value of Dollars constant, while Bitcoin production is decentralized via proof-of-work. We obtain a “fundamental condition,” which is a version of the exchange-rate indeterminacy result in Kareken-Wallace (1981), and a “speculative” condition. Under some conditions, we show that Bitcoin prices form convergent supermartingales or submartingales and derive implications for monetary policy. |
| JEL: | D50 E40 E42 E50 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24483&r=pay |
| By: | Schilling, Linda; Uhlig, Harald |
| Abstract: | How do Bitcoin prices evolve? What are the consequences for monetary policy? We answer these questions in a novel, yet simple endowment economy. There are two types of money, both useful for transactions: Bitcoins and Dollars. A central bank keeps the real value of Dollars constant, while Bitcoin production is decentralized via proof-of-work. We obtain a ``fundamental condition'', which is a version of the exchange-rate indeterminacy result in Kareken-Wallace (1981), and a ``speculative'' condition. Under some conditions, we show that Bitcoin prices form convergent supermartingales or submartingales and derive implications for monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin; cryptocurrency; currency competition; Exchange Rates; Indeterminacy |
| JEL: | D50 E40 E42 E50 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12831&r=pay |
| By: | Read, Brendan |
| Abstract: | This study considers the burden placed on participants, subjectively and objectively, when asked to usea mobile app to scan shopping receipts. Using data from both the Understanding Society SpendingStudy, and the ninth wave of the Understanding Society Innovation Panel allow measures of burden andrelated characteristics to be identified. Subjective and objective burden were found to be seeminglyunrelated to one another. There is evidence of older respondents facing greater objective burden,however there was some evidence that this did not correspond to an increase in the levels of subjectiveburden reported. Reported willingness to participate in a task of a similar nature proved to be indicativeof both objective and subjective burden. |
| Date: | 2018–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:ukhlsp:2018-04&r=pay |
| By: | Bourreau, Marc; Sun, Yutec; Verboven, Frank |
| Abstract: | We study a major new entry in the French mobile telecommunications market, followed by the introduction of fighting brands by the three incumbent firms. Using an empirical oligopoly model with differentiated products, we show that the incumbents' launch of the fighting brands can be rationalized only as a breakdown of tacit collusion. In the absence of entry the incumbents successfully colluded on restricting their product variety to avoid cannibalization; the new entry of the low-end competition made such semi-collusion more difficult to sustain because of increased business stealing incentives. Consumers gained considerably from the added variety of the new entrant and the fighting brands, and to a lesser extent from the incumbents' price response to the entry. |
| Keywords: | Entry; fighting brand; Mobile telecommunications; product variety; semi-collusion |
| JEL: | L13 L96 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12866&r=pay |
| By: | Viete, Steffen; Erdsiek, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the returns to mobile information and communication technology (ICT) in the workplace are contingent on granting employees autonomy over the structure of their workday through trust-based work time arrangements (TBW). Our regression analysis is based on a production function framework and exploits fine-grained firm survey data on ICT use and organisational practices for 1,045 service firms in Germany. We find empirical support for the argument that the returns to mobile ICT are higher when TBW allows for discretion over when, where and how to perform work-related tasks. The finding holds when we account for more limited forms of workplace flexibility, suggesting that the high degree of formal employee autonomy under TBW drives the complementarity between mobile ICT and organisational practices. |
| Keywords: | mobile information and communication technologies,ICT,trust-based work time,work organisation,complementarity,productivity,firm performance |
| JEL: | D22 L22 M10 O33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:18013&r=pay |
| By: | Krichene, Noureddine; Ghassan, Hassan B. |
| Abstract: | Historically, money is gold and silver, supplied by the market on profit criterion. Everywhere, government inconvertible paper money arose from bankruptcy. A government with balanced budgets would never need it. Imposed by force, inconvertible paper is a taxation mean, highly inflationary, and causes impoverishment. Unjust and bankrupt governments will continue to force this despotic money. Islamic Monetary Economics refutes the idea of money as a policy tool. Fully convertible paper is Shariah compliant. Shariah requires a just government to balance its budgets and restore fully gold and silver as lawful money. |
| Keywords: | Money, Gold-silver, Inconvertible paper, Inflation, Bankruptcy, Shariah. |
| JEL: | E42 E5 F33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:85798&r=pay |
| By: | Jeitschko, Thomas D.; Kim, Soo Jin; Yankelevich, Aleksandr |
| Abstract: | We study a Hotelling framework in which customers first pay a monopoly platform to enter the market before deciding between two competing services on opposite ends of a Hotelling line. This setup is common when modeling competition in Internet content provision. We find that standard taken-for-granted solution methods under full market coverage break down, and that in the unique full-coverage equilibrium, the competing service providers set substantially lower prices. Standard methods and prices are restored by giving service providers the first move. |
| Keywords: | Hotelling Model,First Mover Advantage,Two-Sided Market |
| JEL: | D21 D43 L0 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:286&r=pay |
| By: | Thorsten Heilker (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Gernot Sieg (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster) |
| Abstract: | Transportation network companies commonly enter the market for taxi ride intermediation and alter the market outcome. Compared to cooperatively organized radio-taxi dispatch service agencies, transportation network companies run larger fleets and serve more customers with lower fares, when the fixed costs of the dispatch office are relatively small. The same holds for private dispatch firms, when the fixed costs of a taxicab are not too small. These results are shown in a two-stage duopoly of fare and fleet size competition with fare- and waiting-time-dependent demand. |
| Keywords: | digitization, regulatory capture, taxi dispatch market, transportation network companies |
| JEL: | L91 R41 D43 L22 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:24&r=pay |
| By: | Fershtman, Chaim; Persitz, Dotan |
| Abstract: | We present a strategic network formation model which is based on membership in clubs. Agents choose a set of clubs with which they wish to be affiliated. The set of all club memberships (an environment) induces a weighted network in which two agents are directly connected if they are members of the same club. Two agents may also be indirectly connected using the multiple memberships of third parties. Agents gain from their position in the induced network and pay membership fees. Thus, both clubs and the network are formed simultaneously. Using two specifications of the weighting function we introduce two models based upon congestion - one, the club congestion model wherein the weight of each link depends upon the size of the smallest shared club and the other, the individual congestion model wherein each link's weight depends on the number of affiliations maintained by the two agents. In the club congestion model we focus on the trade-off between the size of the club, depreciation due to indirect connections and membership fees. In the individual congestion model the Grand Club environment is the unique efficient environment. However, a coordination failure arises due to the wide externalities incurred by the formation of new affiliations. We believe that this framework may serve as a basis for an empirical examination of the role of linking platforms in shaping real-life social networks. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12874&r=pay |
| By: | Iain M. Cockburn; Rebecca Henderson; Scott Stern |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence may greatly increase the efficiency of the existing economy. But it may have an even larger impact by serving as a new general-purpose “method of invention” that can reshape the nature of the innovation process and the organization of R&D. We distinguish between automation-oriented applications such as robotics and the potential for recent developments in “deep learning” to serve as a general-purpose method of invention, finding strong evidence of a “shift” in the importance of application-oriented learning research since 2009. We suggest that this is likely to lead to a significant substitution away from more routinized labor-intensive research towards research that takes advantage of the interplay between passively generated large datasets and enhanced prediction algorithms. At the same time, the potential commercial rewards from mastering this mode of research are likely to usher in a period of racing, driven by powerful incentives for individual companies to acquire and control critical large datasets and application-specific algorithms. We suggest that policies which encourage transparency and sharing of core datasets across both public and private actors may be critical tools for stimulating research productivity and innovation-oriented competition going forward. |
| JEL: | L1 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24449&r=pay |
| By: | Stanis{\l}aw Dro\.zd\.z; Robert G\k{e}barowski; Ludovico Minati; Pawe{\l} O\'swi\k{e}cimka; Marcin W\k{a}torek |
| Abstract: | Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst exponents and multiscaling effects. The findings are compared to the stylized facts of mature world markets. While early trading was affected by system-specific irregularities, it is found that over the months preceding April 2018 all these statistical indicators approach the features hallmarking maturity. This can be taken as an indication that the Bitcoin market, and possibly other cryptocurrencies, carry concrete potential of imminently becoming a regular market, alternative to the foreign exchange (Forex). Since high-frequency price data are available since the beginning of trading, the Bitcoin offers a unique window into the statistical characteristics of a market maturation trajectory. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1804.05916&r=pay |
| By: | Iván Abarca |
| Abstract: | Crowdfunding is a practice in which households and companies can, through digital platforms, present projects and receive public funding. Due to the growth rate of its transactions, it is acquiring international relevance, as well as in Chile. In countries where this practice has presented greater depth there are financial policy responses imposing limits and providing protections to its users. The paper presents a first diagnosis of this activity in Chile and compiles public statistics to December 2016, quantifying around US$ 180 million traded, mainly focused on loans to companies (which represent 96% of the amount and 85% of the projects). Of these last transactions, we observe an average annual interest rate of 13.4% nominal, which must be adjusted to the fees of platforms. Although the activity is possibly presented as a more convenient financial alternative than the traditional one, and references show that large companies pay lower interest rates than small and medium-size enterprises, it is not possible to induce a vis-à-vis comparison with the available rates of capital markets entities, since the latter’s operations are limited according to the regulatory perimeter and crowdfunding conditions are not necessarily subject to comparable credit risk standards. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:815&r=pay |
| By: | Del Rajan (Victoria University of Wellington); Matt Visser (Victoria University of Wellington) |
| Abstract: | A conceptual design for a quantum blockchain is proposed. Our method involves encoding the blockchain into a temporal GHZ (Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger) state of photons that do not simultaneously coexist. It is shown that the entanglement in time, as opposed to an entanglement in space, provides the crucial quantum advantage. All the subcomponents of this system have already been shown to be experimentally realized. Perhaps more shockingly, our encoding procedure can be interpreted as non-classically influencing the past; hence this decentralized quantum blockchain can be viewed as a quantum networked time machine. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1804.05979&r=pay |
| By: | Sebastián M. Palacio (GiM, Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Public transport smart cards are widely used around the world. However, while they provide information about various aspects of passenger behavior, they have not been properly exploited to predict demand. Indeed, traditional methods in economics employ linear unbiased estimators that pay little attention to accuracy, which is the main problem faced by the sector’s regulators. This paper reports the application of various supervised machine learning (SML) techniques to smart card data in order to forecast demand, and it compares these outcomes with traditional linear model estimates. We conclude that the forecasts obtained from these algorithms are much more accurate. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xrp:wpaper:xreap2018-3&r=pay |
| By: | Igor Rivin; Carlo Scevola |
| Abstract: | We describe the design of the CCI30 cryptocurrency index. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1804.06711&r=pay |
| By: | Gita Gopinath; Jeremy C. Stein |
| Abstract: | We explore the interplay between trade invoicing patterns and the pricing of safe assets in different currencies. Our theory highlights the following points: 1) a currency’s role as a unit of account for invoicing decisions is complementary to its role as a safe store of value; 2) this complementarity can lead to the emergence of a single dominant currency in trade invoicing and global banking, even when multiple large candidate countries share similar economic fundamentals; 3) firms in emerging-market countries endogenously take on currency mismatches by borrowing in the dominant currency; 4) the expected return on dominant-currency safe assets is lower than that on similarly safe assets denominated in other currencies, thereby bestowing an “exorbitant privilege” on the dominant currency. The theory thus provides a unified explanation for why a dominant currency is so heavily used in both trade invoicing and in global finance. |
| JEL: | E0 F0 G0 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24485&r=pay |
| By: | Shachmurove, Yochanan; Vulanovic, Milos |
| Abstract: | Specified Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) are a special type of public companies currently available to investors in financial markets. As an investment vehicle, modern SPACs are traced back to 18-th century England where blank checks were first mentioned as blind pools during the infamous South Sea Bubble. In the United States, the Security and Exchange Commission classifies SPAC as a blank check company. This chapter reviews the academic and financial literatures about SPACs, describes their institutional characteristics and analyses their market performance since Initial Public Offering (IPO). The sole purpose of SPACs is to use the proceeds to finance future acquisition. |
| Keywords: | Blank checks,,Initial public offering (IPO),,IPO survival,Mergers and Acquisition (M&A),Specified Purpose Acquisition Companies,SPACs |
| JEL: | G12 G32 G14 G24 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:177392&r=pay |
| By: | Inga Molenda (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Gernot Sieg (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster) |
| Abstract: | A shopping mall is a meeting platform for retailers and their customers, and may therefore subsidize one particular market side. We consider suburban malls as competitive bottlenecks, because shops are mainly opened up by retail chains which operate in many malls, but whose customers visit only one suburban mall, so as to save transport costs. If the consumer-to-shop externality is larger than the shop-to-consumer externality, parking is subsidized. If customers generate high revenue, the mall operator will generally refrain from charging an entry fee, and offer free parking to its visitors. This result is shown in a model with variety-loving consumers and two competing malls at the end point of a Hotelling line on which their potential visitors, and thus the retailers’ customers, are located. |
| JEL: | L91 R41 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:23&r=pay |
| By: | Michel Alexandre da Silva; Giovani Antônio Silva Brito; Theo Cotrim Martins |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of defaulting on one personal credit type on future default on other types of loan. Using Brazilian micro data, we run a logistic regression to estimate the probability of default on a given credit type, by including personal overdue exposure in the other debt types among the explanatory variables. Our results show that this effect is positive and significant, although quantitatively heterogeneous. We also discuss the rationale behind these results. Specifically, it was found that financing credit types (vehicle and real estate financing) contaminate the other credit types more, as defaulting may cause the debtor to lose the financed good. Moreover, riskier loan types (overdraft, non-payroll-educted personal credit, and credit card) are more contaminated by defaults on other credit types, which is explained by the fact that defaulting individuals have limited access to less risky debt types |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:476&r=pay |
| By: | Vincent Malardé (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, MARSOUIN - Môle Armoricain de Recherche sur la SOciété de l'information et des usages d'INternet - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de Analyse de l'Information - Rennes - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire); Thierry Pénard (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, MARSOUIN - Môle Armoricain de Recherche sur la SOciété de l'information et des usages d'INternet - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de Analyse de l'Information - Rennes - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire) |
| Date: | 2018–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01757813&r=pay |
| By: | Sorace, Miriam |
| Abstract: | The analysis compares voters' preferences in economic policy to political parties' economic written parliamentary questions during the 2009–2014 term of the European Parliament. The corpus of over 55,000 written questions was ideologically scaled via crowdsourcing. The analysis shows that parties are unresponsive to second-order and to disengaged voters. The results also suggest that there is no upper class bias in European Parliament political representation. The data highlight a strong tendency of EP7 political parties to cluster around the position of the average European voter, at the expense of their average supporter. The democratic deficit is therefore at most a pluralism deficit in the European Parliament, since substantive representation in the European Parliament is successful as far as the majoritarian norm is concerned. |
| Keywords: | crowdsourcing; democratic deficits; European Parliament; European Union; political representation |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:87625&r=pay |
| By: | Allen, Franklin; Qian, Meijun; Xie, Jing |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a framework to understand informal financing based on mechanisms to deal with asymmetric information and enforcement. We find that constructive informal financing such as trade credits and family borrowing that relies on information advantages or an altruistic relationship is associated with good firm performance. Underground financing such as money lenders who use violence for enforcement is not. Constructive informal financing is prevalent in regions where access to bank loans is extensive, while its role in supporting firm growth decreases with bank loan availability. International comparisons show that China is not an outlier but rather average in using informal financing. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric information; Firm Growth; Informal financing; social collateral |
| JEL: | G21 G30 O16 O17 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12863&r=pay |