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on Open Economy Macroeconomics |
| By: | Sangyup Choi; Gabriele Ciminelli; Davide Furceri |
| Abstract: | Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that an increase in uncertainty in one country scares away foreign investment. But, due to the limited availability of cross-country uncertainty data, empirical evidence remains scarce, and mostly confined to a limited set of countries. This paper provides a systematic analysis of how foreign capital inflows react to an increase in political and economic uncertainty, proxied using the World Uncertainty Index. We focus on bank credit, portfolio debt, and portfolio equity capital inflows into 143 countries from 51 source countries. We find that an increase in domestic uncertainty induces a substantial and persistent decrease in bank credit and portfolio debt inflows, and (to a lesser extent) in equity inflows. The effects on portfolio inflows are larger for countries with more open capital markets. We also uncover important differences in the response of portfolio inflows through actively-managed versus passive funds. The formers are similarly sensitive to changes in uncertainty that are country-specific (purely local uncertainty) and common across countries (global uncertainty), while the latter are only sensitive to global uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, Capital flows, World Uncertainty Index, Mutual funds, ETFs, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | F21 F32 F42 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2022-64&r=opm |
| By: | Matschke, Johannes; Lovchikova, Marina |
| JEL: | F36 F38 F41 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc22:264039&r=opm |
| By: | Mangal Goswami (South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre); Victor Pontines (South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre); Yassier Mohammed (South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre) |
| Abstract: | Using high-frequency, proprietary data on daily net non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets, our study finds in the time domain connectedness framework that, to varying degrees, there is less interconnectedness in non-resident debt and equity portfolio flows to our sample of emerging market (EM) economies during normal times. In contrast, during times of uncertainty and stress, the interconnectedness of portfolio flows intensifies. This indicates the notion of asymmetry in the spillovers of these portfolio flows during periods of stress relative to normal times. More importantly, over most of the sample period, we find that shocks in the broad EM US dollar exchange rate can have important effects on these interconnections where, based on estimates of the net directional spillover index, the broad EM US dollar exchange rate is a net transmitter of shocks to debt and equity portfolio flows of the EM economies. Using the more recent frequency domain approach to connectedness, we find that the broad EM US dollar exchange rate is a net transmitter of shocks to the EM economies' debt and equity flows with the impact of such shocks hitting portfolio capital flows within at least a week to 100 days. In addition to the importance of pre-emptive prudential policy levers, efforts toward better monitoring of risks can contribute to creditors and investors in EM economies becoming more resilient to global shocks, particularly, during times of US dollar appreciations when these portfolio flows tend to reverse. |
| Keywords: | portfolio debt flows, portfolio equity flows, connectedness, directional spillover |
| JEL: | C58 F31 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sea:wpaper:wp48&r=opm |
| By: | Laurent Ferrara; Aikaterina Karadimitropoulou; Athanasios Triantafyllou; Theodora Bermpei |
| Abstract: | Exchange rates of commodity exporting countries, generally known as commodity currencies, are often considered to be driven by some specific commodity prices. In this paper, we show that the uncertainty common to a basket of commodity prices is also a significant driver of exchange rate dynamics for a panel of commodity exporting countries. In particular, a positive shock on global commodity price uncertainty leads to a short-run depreciation of the effective exchange rate in commodity currency countries, followed by a medium-term overshooting. We document that this pattern is specific to commodity currencies and is not visible on benchmark currencies like the euro or the U.S. dollar, the latter acting as a typical safe haven currency. We refer to this pattern as the “commodity uncertainty currency” property. |
| Keywords: | Commodity currencies, Uncertainty co-movement, Commodity prices, SVAR model |
| JEL: | F43 F31 C50 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2022-24&r=opm |
| By: | Rubayat Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The role of the exchange rate as a ‘shock absorber’ is often undermined in resource-dependent developing countries when a negative commodity price shock hits the economy. Rather than pursuing greater flexibility, the policymakers rely more on intervention strategies which further aggravates the balance of payment crisis by leading to a forex crisis. This paper presents an empirical study of Papua New Guinea which has been facing a severe shortage of foreign currency since 2013. It examines if a sudden depreciation shock to the exchange rate stimulates the overall trade balance while simultaneously evaluating its impact on inflation. Employing a structural vector autoregression model I find that the positive trade balance effect outweighs the negative inflationary effect. Further, I find external shocks as the major sources of real business cycles and a negative response of the non-resource economy to a positive resource shock. |
| Keywords: | SVAR, natural resource, commodity shocks, forex market, exchange rate, devaluation, Papua New Guinea |
| JEL: | C51 E32 F43 F62 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2022-50&r=opm |
| By: | Cloyne, James S.; Hürtgen, Patrick; Taylor, Alan M. |
| Abstract: | Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy meetings between 1974 and 1998. German monetary policy shocks produce conventional effects on the German domestic economy: activity, prices, and credit decline significantly following a monetary contraction. But given Germany's central role in the European Monetary System (EMS), we can also shed light on debates about the international transmission of monetary policy and the relative importance of the U.S. Federal Reserve for the global cycle during these years. We find that Bundesbank policy spillovers were much stronger in major EMS economies with Deutschmark pegs than in non-EMS economies with floating exchange rates. Furthermore, compared to monetary spillovers from the U.S., German spillovers were comparable or even larger in magnitude for both pegs and floats. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy,Bundesbank,trilemma,exchange rate,spillovers |
| JEL: | E32 E52 F42 F44 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:342022&r=opm |
| By: | Leonie Bräuer (University of Geneva; Swiss Finance Institute, Students); Harald Hau (University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI); Swiss Finance Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)) |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade foreign bond portfolio positions in US dollar assets have risen above the reciprocal US investor positions in foreign currencies. In periods of increased economic uncertainty, institutional investors hedge their international bond positions, which creates a net hedging demand for dollar assets that depreciates USD rates in both the forward and spot markets. We document the time-varying nature of this net hedging demand and show how it relates to economic uncertainty and the US net foreign bond position in various currencies. Based on a parsimonious VAR model, we find that changes in FX hedging pressure can account for approximately 30% of all monthly variation in the seven most important dollar exchange rates from 2012 to 2022. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate, Hedging Channel, Institutional Investors |
| JEL: | E44 F31 F32 G11 G15 G23 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2277&r=opm |
| By: | Birkner, Matthias; Scheuer, Niklas; Wälde, Klaus |
| JEL: | C61 D31 E21 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc22:264080&r=opm |