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on Open Economy Macroeconomic |
| By: | Sara Eugeni |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the relationship between East Asian countries’ high propensity to save and global imbalances in a two-country OLG model with production. The absence of pay-as-you-go pension systems can rationalize the saving behavior of emerging economies and capital outflows to the United States. The model predicts that the country with no pay-as-you-go system can run a trade surplus only as long as the long-run growth rate of the economy is higher than the real interest rate (capital overaccumulation case). The low real interest rates in the US is evidence in favor of the hypothesis that there is a “global saving glut†in the world economy. The model can also explain why the US current account deteriorated gradually and only in the late 1990s, although the net foreign asset position had already turned negative in the early 1980s. Finally, this analysis implies that the introduction of a pay-as-you-go system in China would have the effect of reducing the imbalances. |
| Keywords: | global imbalances, capital flows, current account dynamics, OLG model, pay-as-you-go-system |
| JEL: | F21 F33 F34 F41 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:13/05&r=opm |
| By: | Pål Boug, Ådne Cappelen and Torbjørn Eika (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | The degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic goods prices has important implications for monetary policy in small open economies with floating exchange rates. Evidence indicates that pass-through is faster to import prices than to consumer prices. Price setting behaviour in the distribution sector is suggested as one important explanation. If distribution costs and trade margins are important price components of imported consumer goods, adjustment of import prices and consumer prices to exchange rate movements may differ. We present evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a cointegrated VAR model for the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector, paying particular attention to exchange rate channels likely to operate through trade margins. Embedding this model into a large scale macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy, which inter alia includes the pricing-to-market hypothesis and price-wage and wage-wage spirals between industries, we find exchange rate pass-through to be quite rapid to import prices and fairly slow to consumer prices. We show the importance of the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector in that trade margins act as cushions to exchange rate fluctuations, thereby delaying pass-through significantly to consumer prices. A forecasting exercise demonstrates that exchange rate pass-through to trade margins has not changed in the wake of the financial crises and the switch to inflation targeting. We also find significant inflationary effects of exchange rate changes even in the short run, an insight important for inflation targeting central banks. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate pass-through; pricing behaviour; the distribution sector; econometric modelling and macroeconomic analysis. |
| JEL: | C51 C52 E31 F31 |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:731&r=opm |
| By: | Claudio Bravo-Ortega |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of multilateral trade linkages on bilateral real exchange rate volatility by examining a particular channel —the extent of the effects of differences on import intensities (GDP’s share of imports of a given product and origin) between trade partners— of long-run real exchange rate volatility. I exploit a large panel of cross-country data over the years 1970–97 and construct a micro-founded index to capture this effect. In the estimations I address carefully endogeneity issues by testing not just exogeneity but also the presence of weak instruments. As robustness check and under the latter I estimate LIML and Fuller(1) regressions to ensure unbiased coefficients. Results strongly support the hypothesis that a pair of countries with a larger difference in the import intensities from the rest of the world faces a larger bilateral real exchange rate volatility. This result turns to be robust to the inclusion of bilateral trade a commonly argued moderator of volatility and other controls. These empirical findings are consistent with recent international trade models that highlight multi-country trade linkages. |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp377&r=opm |
| By: | Yothin Jinjarak (University of London); Kanda Naknoi (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This study constructs a new measure of nontradability of goods and demonstrates that it can explain the sectoral heterogeneity of the variance of sector-specific real exchange rate depreciation. Our measure of nontradability is the share of labor costs, including those incurred in the production of intermediate inputs. In the empirical analysis, we employ monthly data of US-Canada sector pairs and quarterly data of US-Germany sector pairs. We found that, for a certain range of nontradability, an increase in the degree of nontradability raises the variance of sector-specific real exchange rate depreciation. In addition, an increase in the degree of nontradability raises the fraction of variance of sector-specific real exchange rate depreciation accounted for by wage inflation differentials. |
| Keywords: | real exchange rate, wage stickiness, tradability |
| JEL: | F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2013-01&r=opm |
| By: | Olivier CARDI (Université Panthéon-Assas ERMES, Paris); Romain RESTOUT (Université de Lorraine BETA, Nancy, UCL IRES) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relative price and relative wage effects of a higher productivity in the traded sector compared with the non traded sector in a two-sector open economy model with imperfect substitutability in hours worked across sectors. The Balassa-Samuelson [1964] model predicts that a rise in the sectoral productivity ratio by 1% raises the relative price of non tradables by 1% while leaving unchanged the non traded wage-traded wage ratio. Applying cointegration methods to a panel of fourteen OECD countries over the period 1970-2007, our estimates show that the relative price rises by only 0.78% while the relative wage falls by 0.27%. Hence, our first set of empirical findings cast doubt on the quantitative predictions of the Balassa-Samuelson model. A second set of empirical findings highlights the role of imperfect labor mobility: interacting the ratio of sectoral labor share-adjusted total factor productivities with an index of labor mobility across sectors, we find that the relative price responds more to a productivity differential between tradables and non tradables while the reaction of the relative wage is more muted as the degree of labor mobility increases. We show that the ability of the two-sector model to account for our evidence quantitatively relies upon two ingredients: i) imperfect mobility of labor across sectors, and ii) physical capital accumulation. Finally, our numerical results are robust to the introduction of i) non-separability in preferences between consumption and labor, and ii) traded investment. |
| Keywords: | Relative price of non tradables; Sectoral wages; Productivity growth; Sectoral labor reallocation; Investment |
| JEL: | E22 F11 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2013–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2013002&r=opm |
| By: | Ceyhun Elgin; Tolga Umut Kuzubas |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bou:wpaper:2013/04&r=opm |
| By: | Onur Ince |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting with Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Taylor rule fundamentals for 9 OECD countries vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar over the period from 1973:Q1 to 2009:Q1 at short and long horizons. In contrast with previous work, which reports “forecasts” using revised data, I construct a quarterly real-time dataset that incorporates only the information available to market participants when the forecasts are made. Using bootstrapped out-of-sample test statistics, the exchange rate model with Taylor rule fundamentals performs better at the one-quarter horizon and panel estimation is not able to improve its performance. The PPP model, however, forecasts better at the 16-quarter horizon and its performance increases in panel framework. The results are in accord with previous research on long-run PPP and Taylor rule models. Key Words: Exchange Rate Forecasting, Taylor Rules, Real-Time Data, Out-of-Sample Test Statistics |
| JEL: | C23 C53 E32 E52 F31 F47 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:13-04&r=opm |
| By: | Onur Ince; Tanya Molodtsova |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the long-standing Meese and Rogoff puzzle by examining the importance of real-time data for exchange rate forecasting. Most of the existing literature on exchange rate predictability uses recent historical data, which are not available to the public at the time the forecasts are made. This paper evaluates short- and long-horizon out-of-sample exchange rate predictability using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Taylor rule fundamentals for 16 OECD currencies during the post-Bretton Woods era. Comparing the results with real-time and revised data, the evidence of short-run exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule models is stronger with real-time data. The models with Taylor rule fundamentals outperform the naïve no-change model at the 1-quarter horizon for 8 out of 16 currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar with real-time data and for 6 out of 16 currencies with revised data, with the strongest evidence coming from specifications that incorporate heterogeneous coefficients. The evidence of short-run predictability is much stronger with Taylor rule models than with conventional purchasing power parity model regardless of which type of data is used. The out-of-sample performance of both PPP and Taylor rule fundamentals improves at longer horizons, with PPP model performing best in the long run. At the 16-quarter horizon, the models with Taylor rule fundamentals outperform the random walk for 10 out of 16 currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar with either type of data, while the PPP model outperforms the naïve no-change model for 13 out of 16 currencies with real-time data and for 11 out of 16 currencies with revised data. Key Words: |
| JEL: | C2 E5 F3 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:13-03&r=opm |
| By: | Yue Zhao (Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | Following Jermann and Quadrini (2012), we apply the dynamic stochastic general equilib- rium modeling method (DSGE) to assess whether nancial shocks matter for the Japanese economy. We construct time series of nancial shocks and productivity shocks using Japan's quarterly data since 2001 and conduct simultaneous replication on major indi- cators of aggregate financial flows and real variables. Preliminary results tell us that in a closed economy, nancial shocks seem less important than they were in the U.S. economy. However, after extending the original model to a small open economy in which rms can borrow from overseas lenders but may have to pay a default risk premium on interest payments, simulated results show that nancial shocks have contributed heavily to the dynamics of aggregate debt and dividend flows. This is consistent with Jermann and Quadrini's (2012) nding on the U.S. economy. By contrast, however, productivity shocks seem to have been dominant in accounting for fluctuations of real variables, such as output, consumption ratio, and investment ratio in Japan. |
| Keywords: | DSGE model, financial friction, small open economy, simulation |
| JEL: | E44 E32 F41 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:849&r=opm |
| By: | Michał Brzoza-Brzezina (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics); Marcin Kolasa (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics); Krzysztof Makarski (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Since its creation the euro area suffered from imbalances between its core and peripheral members. This paper checks whether macroprudential policy applied to the peripheral countries could contribute to providing more macroeconomic stability in this region. To this end we build a twoeconomy macrofinancial DSGE model and simulate the effects of macroprudential policies under the assumption of asymmetric shocks hitting the core and the periphery. We find that macroprudential policy is able to partly make up for the loss of independent monetary policy in the periphery. Moreover, LTV policy seems more efficient than regulating capital adequacy ratios. However, for the policies to be effective, they must be set individually for each region. Area-wide policy is almost ineffective in this respect. |
| Keywords: | euro-area imbalances, macroprudential policy, DSGE with banking sector |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E58 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:138&r=opm |
| By: | Raphael A. Auer (Swiss National Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper starts by showing that in the European car industry, there exist cross-country taste differences along the product attribute dimension that signifcantly drive net trade patterns and reduce the volume of trade. Further it is shown that, after the creation of the European common market, these cross-country taste differences caused a sluggish response of trade volume to liberalization as it took time for each country's industry structure to adapt to the demand structure of the common market. To rationalize such trade patterns, a structural model of demand featuring consumers with homothetic preferences and heterogeneous tastes over attributes is developed. Allowing for international trade, the model predicts that consumption is home-biased in the immediate aftermath of trade liberalization since each country's industry structure is optimized for the preferences of domestic consumers and domestic output thus does not match well with preferences abroad. Along the transition to the open economy steady state, each country's industry specializes into market segments with comparatively large domestic demand, implying that domestic firms leave the market segments the foreign industry specializes in. This increasing specialization that underlies the "home market" effect increases the average demand for foreign goods, the volume of trade, and the average gains from liberalization. |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:szg:worpap:1301&r=opm |