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on Open MacroEconomics |
| By: | Rebecca Hellerstein; William Ryan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of cross-border flows of U.S. dollar banknotes, using a new panel data set of bilateral flows between the United States and 103 countries from 1990 to 2007. We show that a gravity model explains international flows of currency as well as it explains international flows of goods and financial assets. We find important roles for market size and transaction costs, consistent with the traditional gravity framework, as well as roles for financial depth, the behavior of the nominal exchange rate, the size of the informal sector, the amount of remittance credits, the degree of competition with the euro, and the history of macroeconomic instability over the previous generation. We find no role for official trade flows of goods. Our results thus confirm several hypotheses about the determinants of using a secondary currency. |
| Keywords: | Flow of funds ; Dollar, American ; Currency substitution |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:400&r=opm |
| By: | Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal; Makarski, Krzysztof |
| Abstract: | We construct an open-economy DSGE model with a banking sector to analyse the impact of the recent credit crunch on a small open economy. In our model the banking sector operates under monopolistic competition, collects deposits and grants collateralized loans. Collateral effects amplify monetary policy actions, interest rate stickiness dampens the transmission of interest rates, and financial shocks generate non-negligible real and nominal effects. As an application we estimate the model for Poland - a typical small open economy. According to the results, financial shocks had a substantial, though not overwhelming, impact on the Polish economy during the 2008/09 crisis, lowering GDP by a little over one percent. |
| Keywords: | credit crunch; monetary policy; DSGE with banking sector |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E44 |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:18595&r=opm |
| By: | Mei Li, (Department of Economics,University of Guelph); Junfeng Qiu (Central University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the optimal appreciation path of an under-valued currency in the presence of speculative capital inflows that are endogenously affected by the appreciation path. A central bank decides the optimal appreciation path based on three factors: (i) Misalignment costs associated with the gap between the actual exchange rate and the fundamental exchange rate, (ii) short-term adjustment costs due to fast appreciation, and (iii) capital losses due to speculative capital inflows. We examine two cases in which speculators do and do not face liquidity shocks. We show that, in the case without liquidity shocks, the central bank should appreciate quickly to discourage speculative capital, and should appreciate more quickly in initial periods than in later periods. In the case with liquidity shocks, the central bank should pre-commit to a slow appreciation path to discourage speculative capital. The central bank should appreciate slowest when the probability of liquidity shocks takes middle values. If the central bank cannot commit and can only take a discretionary policy, appreciation should be faster. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate, appreciation, capital flows |
| JEL: | F31 F32 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gue:guelph:2009-5&r=opm |
| By: | Michael Woodford (Columbia University - Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Dani Rodrik (2008) offers a provocative argument for policies that seek to maintain an "undervalued" exchange rate in order to promote economic growth. The key to his argument is the empirical evidence that he presents, indicating correlation of his measure of undervaluation with economic growth in cross-country panel regressions. Rodrik does not really discuss the measures that should be undertaken to maintain an undervalued exchange rate, and whether it is likely that a country that pursues undervaluation as a growth strategy should be able to maintain persistent undervalu- ation. For example, he remarks (as justification for interest in the question of a causal effect of undervaluation on growth) that "one of the key findings of the open-economy macro literature is that nominal exchange rates and real exchange rates move quite closely together." But while this is true, and while it is widely interpreted as indicat- ing that monetary policy can affect real exchange rates (since it can obviously move nominal rates), it hardly follows that monetary policy alone can maintain a weak real exchange rate for long enough to serve as part of a long-run growth strategy. Indeed, conventional theoretical models with short-run price stickiness, that are perfectly consistent with the observed short-run effects of monetary policy on real exchange rates, imply that monetary policy should not have long-run effects on real exchange rates. Rodrik also cites evidence showing that sterilized interventions in the foreign-exchange market can affect real exchange rates. But economic theory suggests that interventions not associated with any change in current or subsequent monetary policy should have even more transitory effects. And the experiences of countries that have sought to use devaluation to boost economic growth have often found that the real exchange rate effect of a nominal devaluation is not long-lasting. Nonetheless, the point of the paper is to provide evidence that undervaluation favors growth, on the assumption that policies to maintain undervaluation are avail- able, and it is that central contention that I shall examine here. I find the evidence less persuasive than the paper suggests, for two reasons. First, I believe that the paper exaggerates the strength and robustness of the association between the real exchange rate and growth in the cross-country evidence. And second, even granting the existence of such a correlation, a causal effect of real exchange rates on growth is hardly the only possible interpretation. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clu:wpaper:0809-13&r=opm |
| By: | Domenico Giannone; Michele Lenza |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that general equilibrium effects can partly rationalize the high correlation between saving and investment rates observed in OECD countries. We find that once controlling for general equilibrium effects the saving-retention coefficient remains high in the 70’s but decreases considerably since the 80’s, consistently with the increased capital mobility in OECD countries. |
| JEL: | C23 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15519&r=opm |
| By: | Martin Bodenstein; Christopher J. Erceg; Luca Guerrieri |
| Abstract: | In a two-country DSGE model, the effects of foreign demand shocks on the home country are greatly amplified if the home economy is constrained by the zero lower bound for policy interest rates. This result applies even to countries that are relatively closed to trade such as the United States. The duration of the liquidity trap is determined endogenously. Adverse foreign shocks can extend the duration of the liquidity trap, implying more contractionary effects for the home country; conversely, large positive shocks can prompt an early exit, implying effects that are closer to those when the zero bound constraint is not binding. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:983&r=opm |
| By: | Bettina Landau (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Frauke Skudelny (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyse in a mark-up framework the pass-through of commodity price and exchange rate shocks to the main components of producer and consumer prices. Thereby we link movements in prices at the different production stages as firms set their prices as a mark-up over production costs. The empirical results reveal significant linkages between different price stages in the euro area. The overall results are roughly in line with the literature and provide insight into the effects at different stages of the production chain. Non-energy commodity prices turn out to be important determinants of euro area prices. JEL Classification: E31, E37. |
| Keywords: | Pass-through, producer prices, consumer prices, commodity prices, exchange rate. |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091104&r=opm |
| By: | Florentina Manea |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices, producer prices and several different measures of consumer prices indices for Romanian economy. In order to determine the size, describe the dynamics and identify the asymmetries in ERPT the paper employs an array of econometric methods belonging to the VAR family. The methods range from RVARS (on different price indices and/or on a rolling window), Sign-restriction VARs (also using different consumer inflation measures), MS-VAR, TAR and SETAR, the last three methods being naturally equipped to capture various types of asymmetries. The results point to an almost complete pass-through into import prices and incomplete passthrough into producer and consumer prices. In all cases except import prices the ERPT displays a decline in magnitude over the analysed time interval. The paper also finds important asymmetries with respect to sign and size of the exchange rate, size of inflation and time period. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate pass-through, MS-VAR, TAR, SETAR |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cab:wpaefr:34&r=opm |