Abstract: |
This paper explores the power of personality traits both as predictors and as
causes of academic and economic success, health, and criminal activity.
Measured personality is interpreted as a construct derived from an economic
model of preferences, constraints, and information. Evidence is reviewed about
the “situational specificity” of personality traits and preferences. An
extreme version of the situationist view claims that there are no stable
personality traits or preference parameters that persons carry across
different situations. Those who hold this view claim that personality
psychology has little relevance for economics. The biological and evolutionary
origins of personality traits are explored. Personality measurement systems
and relationships among the measures used by psychologists are examined. The
predictive power of personality measures is compared with the predictive power
of measures of cognition captured by IQ and achievement tests. For many
outcomes, personality measures are just as predictive as cognitive measures,
even after controlling for family background and cognition. Moreover, standard
measures of cognition are heavily influenced by personality traits and
incentives. Measured personality traits are positively correlated over the
life cycle. However, they are not fixed and can be altered by experience and
investment. Intervention studies, along with studies in biology and
neuroscience, establish a causal basis for the observed effect of personality
traits on economic and social outcomes. Personality traits are more malleable
over the life cycle compared to cognition, which becomes highly rank stable
around age 10. Interventions that change personality are promising avenues for
addressing poverty and disadvantage. |