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on Monetary Economics |
| By: | Alexei Kireyev |
| Abstract: | The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is a currency union with a fixed exchange rate and limited capital mobility and, therefore, an independent monetary policy in the short run. The Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) is conducting the single monetary policy with the main goal of preserving price stability and supporting economic growth. However, the effectiveness of its monetary policy remains low, with a weak reaction of market interest rates and inflation to BCEAO’s policy actions. The paper concludes that, while the institutional setup and the instruments of monetary policy are adequate, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy remains constrained by liquidity management practices, shallow and segmented financial markets, and interest rate rigidities. To improve the effectiveness of monetary policy the BCEAO should be more proactive in determining the stance of fiscal policies, develop financial markets, and liberalize controlled interest rates. The BCEAO is undertaking important reforms in these directions. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate regimes;Capital controls;Cabo Verde;Benin;Burkina Faso;Fixed exchange rates;Gambia, The;Ghana;Guinea;Guinea-Bissau;Monetary policy;Mali;Niger;Nigeria;Monetary transmission mechanism;Monetary policy instruments;Liberia;Senegal;Sierra Leone;Togo;West African Economic and Monetary Union;WAEMU, low-income countries, exchange rate, interest, exchange, interest rates, inflation, International Migration, Open Economy Macroeconomics, |
| Date: | 2015–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/99&r=all |
| By: | Sonali Das |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on the credit channel of monetary policy transmission in India. Using stepwise estimation of vector error correction models, the analysis finds significant, albeit slow, pass-through of policy rate changes to bank interest rates in India. There is evidence of asymmetric adjustment to monetary policy: the lending rate adjusts more quickly to monetary tightening than to loosening. In addition, the speed of adjustment of deposit and lending rates to changes in the policy rate has increased in recent years. |
| Keywords: | India;Lending rates;Monetary policy transmission, deposit rates, monetary policy, interest, interest rates, lending, bank interest rates, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), |
| Date: | 2015–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/129&r=all |
| By: | Rafael Portillo; Yulia Ustyugova |
| Abstract: | Uruguay has recently reverted to a money targeting (MT) framework in the context of a disinflation strategy. We develop a quantitative model for monetary policy analysis incorporating money targets in the policy framework while also retaining a central role for interest rates in the transmission of policy. We use the model to show that tight financial conditions for a period may be necessary for inflation to converge to the middle of the target band. We also discuss various aspects of the MT framework. Two issues stand out. Excessive focus on hitting money targets can result in undesirable changes in the policy stance; while targets that incorporate elements of money demand forecasting are superior to targets that are excessively smooth or do not adjust for base effects. |
| Keywords: | Central banks and their policies;Uruguay;Monetary policy;Inflation targeting;Demand for money;Econometric models;Forecasting;Money Targeting, money, inflation, demand, interest rates, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Forecasting and Simulation, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development, |
| Date: | 2015–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/170&r=all |
| By: | Benjamin Lester (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Roc Armenter (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | We provide a framework to understand the factors affecting current short-term interest rates in the federal funds market given the presence of excess reserves and liquidity facilities. The key ingredients of our model are as follows. There is a central bank that operates two facilities: one pays interest on excess reserves to qualified depository institutions (DIs), and another provides a positive rate of return for overnight reverse repurchase agreements. The latter (ON RRP) rate is lower than the former (IOER) rate, but is available to financial institutions with excess cash that do not qualify as DIs. Hence, there is an arbitrage opportunity: DIs should be willing to borrow cash at a rate below the IOER rate and pocket the difference. However, there are two potential frictions in this inter-bank market. First, we assume that the market is not perfectly competitive, but rather characterized by search frictions in order to capture the ``over-the-counter'' nature of the fed funds market. The second key friction in our model is that DIs incur balance sheet costs when they accept deposits from lenders; these costs capture both the direct costs of a DI expanding its balance sheet, like FDIC fees, as well as the indirect costs associated with requirements on capital and leverage ratios. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed015:586&r=all |
| By: | Ali Alichi; Kevin Clinton; Charles Freedman; Ondra Kamenik; Michel Juillard; Douglas Laxton; Jarkko Turunen; Hou Wang |
| Abstract: | The Fed has taken several steps towards strengthening its monetary framework over the past several years. Those steps have supported the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy through forward guidance despite being constrained by having policy rates at zero. We show that an optimal control approach to monetary policy, which includes the publication of a baseline forecast and a description of the uncertainties around that outlook, combined with an improvement in the Fed’s communications toolkit, could further enhance the effectiveness of Fed policy. In the current conjuncture, such a risk management approach to monetary policy would result in both a later liftoff of policy rates and a modest, but planned, overshooting of inflation. |
| Keywords: | Central banks and their policies;Monetary policy;Inflation targeting;United States;Optimal Control, inflation, interest, interest rate, central bank, General, |
| Date: | 2015–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/134&r=all |
| By: | Bernard Laurens; Kelly Eckhold; Darryl King; Nils Øyvind Mæhle; Abdul Naseer; Alain Durré |
| Abstract: | Countries with evolving monetary regimes that decide to embark on “the Journey to inflation targeting†may not be able to adopt a full-fledged inflation targeting regime immediately. Those countries would be better off adopting transitional arrangements that take advantage of the informational content of monetary aggregates, developing an economic analysis capacity, and concentrating on monetay operations aimed at steering money market interest rates. This approach would allow the central bank to buy time for developing the building blocks for effective monetary policy, support transparent central bank communication, and limit the potential for undesirable outcomes along the road. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy;central bank, exchange rate, interest rates, central banks, General, |
| Date: | 2015–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/136&r=all |
| By: | Ricardo Lagos; Shengxing Zhang |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of monetary exchange in over-the-counter markets to study the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and standard measures of financial liquidity, such as bid-ask spreads, trade volume, and the incentives of dealers to supply immediacy, both by participating in the market-making activity and by holding asset inventories on their own account. The theory predicts that asset prices carry a speculative premium that reflects the asset's marketability and depends on monetary policy as well as the microstructure of the market where it is traded. These liquidity considerations imply a positive correlation between the real yield on stocks and the nominal yield on Treasury bonds---an empirical observation long regarded anomalous. The theory also exhibits rational expectations equilibria with recurring belief driven events that resemble liquidity crises, i.e., times of sharp persistent declines in asset prices, trade volume, and dealer participation in market-making activity, accompanied by large increases in spreads and abnormally long trading delays. |
| JEL: | D83 E31 E52 E58 G12 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21528&r=all |
| By: | Bindseil, Ulrich; Domnick, Clemens; Zeuner, Jörg |
| Abstract: | In parts of the German media, with the support of a number of German economists, the ECB’s low nominal interest rate policy is criticised as unnecessary, ineffective and as expropriating the German saver. This paper provides a review of the relevant arguments. It is recalled that returns on savings are anchored to the real rate of return on capital. Good monetary policy tries to avoid being a source of disturbance in itself, and may be able to smooth the effects of temporary external shocks, but beyond that cannot structurally improve the real rate of return on capital. Against this general background, the paper critically analyses a number of recent arguments as to why low interest rate policies could actually be counterproductive. Finally, the paper reviews what can be done about the medium to long-term real rate of return on capital, which remains in any case the basic issue for the saver, focusing on the specific case of Germany. The key policies identified relate to demographics, education, labour markets, infrastructure and technology. Low growth dynamics in the coming decades and correspondingly low real rates of return on investments are not inevitable. JEL Classification: E43, E52, O40 |
| Keywords: | growth, natural rate, real interest rate, zero lower bound |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20150161&r=all |
| By: | Anh D. M. Nguyen; Jemma Dridi; D. Filiz Unsal; Oral Williams |
| Abstract: | The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks. |
| Keywords: | Zambia;Zimbabwe;Supply and demand;Vector autoregression;Congo, Democratic Republic of the;Congo, Republic of;Econometric models;Sub-Saharan Africa;Sudan;Swaziland;Tanzania;Togo;Uganda;Rwanda;Senegal;Seychelles;Sierra Leone;South Africa;Niger;Nigeria;Mozambique;Namibia;Monetary policy;Liberia;Gabon;Gambia, The;Ghana;Guinea;Guinea-Bissau;Inflation;Kenya;Lesotho;Madagascar;Malawi;Mali;Mauritania;Mauritius;Djibouti;External shocks;Equatorial Guinea;Eritrea;Ethiopia;Benin;Angola;Central African Republic;Chad;Comoros;Botswana;Burkina Faso;Burundi;Cameroon;Global VAR (GVAR), supply, supply shocks, demand, Time-Series Models, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), General, Sub-Saharan Africa., |
| Date: | 2015–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/189&r=all |
| By: | Stefan Laseen; Andrea Pescatori; Jarkko Turunen |
| Abstract: | We introduce time-varying systemic risk in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model to study whether a simple leaning-against-the-wind policy can reduce systemic risk and improve welfare. We find that an unexpected increase in policy rates reduces output, inflation, and asset prices without fundamentally mitigating financial risks. We also find that while a systematic monetary policy reaction can improve welfare, it is too simplistic: (1) it is highly sensitive to parameters of the model and (2) is detrimental in the presence of falling asset prices. Macroprudential policy, similar to a countercyclical capital requirement, is more robust and leads to higher welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy;Endogenous Financial Risk, DSGE models, Non-Linear Dynamics, Policy Evaluation, financial sector, welfare, prices, equity, |
| Date: | 2015–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/142&r=all |
| By: | Sidibe, Tidiani |
| Abstract: | The debate on the relevance of monetary cooperation agreements with France was back in the saddle by former Malian Prime Minister Moussa MARA July 23, 2015 during a radio broadcast; and Chadian President Idriss Deby Itno during the 55th anniversary of his country's 2015 Tuesday, August 11 The latter threw a big spanner in the franc zone, arguing that currency allows us to develop. Also, some harsh criticism, consider that the CFA franc, pegged to a strong euro hampers the competitiveness of our exports of raw materials quoted in dollars or pounds on the main financial centers in New York, London. This article shows the opposite, highlighting the arguments of stability and credibility enjoyed by the CFA franc. Indeed, the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the CFA franc jouie good parity level relative to trading partners, which means that the CFA franc is neither undervalued nor overestimates. Member countries become more competitive. The foreign reserves of the central banks (BCEAO and BEAC) represented the end of December 2014, only 4.9 months of imports. Monetary cooperation with France is not a zero sum game, it's a win-win partnership. Priority should be given to macroeconomic convergence. |
| Keywords: | Zone franc, central bank , currency, monetary maturity, foreign exchange reserves, real effective exchange rate ( REER) , exchange parity, unlimited convertibility guarantee, transaction accounts , devaluation , monetary policy, opportunity cost , common currency ECOWAS. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2015–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66426&r=all |
| By: | Qianying Chen; Andrew Filardo; Dong He; Feng Zhu |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of the US quantitative easing (QE) on both the emerging and advanced economies, estimating a global vector error-correction model (GVECM) and conducting counterfactual analyses. We focus on the effects of reductions in the US term and corporate spreads. First, US QE measures reducing the US corporate spread appear to be more important than lowering the US term spread. Second, US QE measures might have prevented episodes of prolonged recession and deflation in the advanced economies. Third, the estimated effects on the emerging economies have been diverse but often larger than those recorded in the US and other advanced economies. The heterogeneous effects from US QE measures indicate unevenly distributed benefits and costs. |
| Keywords: | Financial crises;Financial crisis;Spillovers;Monetary policy;Unconventional monetary policy instruments;United States;United States;emerging economies, global VAR, international monetary policy spillovers, quantitative easing, unconventional monetary policy, federal reserve, securities, reserve, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Studies of Particular Policy Episodes, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Forecasting and Simulation, |
| Date: | 2015–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/85&r=all |
| By: | Marcin Kolasa (National Bank of Poland); Krzysztof Makarski (National Bank of Poland); Michal Brzoza-Brzezina (National Bank of Poland) |
| Abstract: | This paper checks how international spillovers of shocks and polices are modified when banks are foreign owned. We build a two-country DSGE model with banking sectors that are owned by residents of one (big and foreign) country. Consistently with empirical findings we find that foreign ownership of banks amplifies spillovers from foreign shocks. Moreover, it also strenghtens the international transmission of monetary and macroprudential policies. Finaly, we replicate the financial crisis in the euro area and show how, by preventing bank capital outflow in 2009 Polish regulatory authorities managed to reduce its spillover to Poland. We also show that under foreign bank ownership such policy is strongly prefered to a recapitalization of domestic banks. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed015:595&r=all |
| By: | Juliana Dutra Araujo; Antonio David; Carlos van Hombeeck; Chris Papageorgiou |
| Abstract: | Using a newly developed dataset this paper examines the cyclicality of private capital inflows to low-income developing countries (LIDCs) over the period 1990-2012. The empirical analysis shows that capital inflows to LIDCs are procyclical, yet considerably less procyclical than flows to more advanced economies. The analysis also suggests that flows to LIDCs are more persistent than flows to emerging markets (EMs). There is also evidence that changes in risk aversion are a significant correlate of private capital inflows with the expected sign, but LIDCs seem to be less sensitive to changes in global risk aversion than EMs. A host of robustness checks to alternative estimation methods, samples, and control variables confirm the baseline results. In terms of policy implications, these findings suggest that private capital inflows are likely to become more procyclical as LIDCs move along the development path, which could in turn raise several associated policy challenges, not the least concerning the reform of traditional monetary policy frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows;Low-income developing countries;Cyclicality, Emerging Markets, capital inflows, private capital, international capital, developing countries, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Emerging Markets., |
| Date: | 2015–07–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/163&r=all |
| By: | Hajime Tomura (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a three-period model to analyze why banks need bank reserves for interbank payments despite the availability of other liquid assets like Treasury securities. The model shows that banks need extra liquidity if they settle bank transfers without the central bank. In this case, each pair of banks sending and receiving bank transfers must determine the terms of settlement between them bilaterally in an overthe-counter transaction. As a result, a receiving bank can charge a sending bank a premium for the settlement of bank transfers, because depositors’ demand for timely payments causes a hold-up problem for a sending bank. In light of this result, the large value payment system operated by the central bank can be regarded as an interbank settlement contract to save liquidity. A third party like the central bank must operate this system because a custodian of collateral is necessary to implement the contract. This result implies that bank reserves are not independent liquid assets, but the balances of collateral submitted by banks to participate into a liquidity-saving contract. The optimal contract is the floor system. Whether a private clearing house can replace the central bank depends on the range of collateral it can accept. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upd:utppwp:056&r=all |
| By: | Serkan Arslanalp; Dennis P. J. Botman |
| Abstract: | Portfolio rebalancing is a key transmission channel of quantitative easing in Japan. We construct a realistic rebalancing scenario, which suggests that the BoJ may need to taper its JGB purchases in 2017 or 2018, given collateral needs of banks, asset-liability management constraints of insurers, and announced asset allocation targets of major pension funds. Nonetheless, the BoJ could deliver continued monetary stimulus by extending the maturity of its JGB purchases or by scaling up private asset purchases. We quantify the impact of rebalancing on capital outflows and discuss JGB market signals that can be indicative of limits being within reach. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy;International financial markets;Capital outflows;Central bank policy;Japan;Asset management;Bond markets;quantitative easing, portfolio rebalancing, speed limits, portfolio, market, inflation, markets, General, Portfolio Choice, speed limits., |
| Date: | 2015–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/186&r=all |
| By: | Olivier J. Blanchard; Gustavo Adler; Irineu E. Carvalho Filho |
| Abstract: | Many emerging market economies have relied on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in response to gross capital inflows. In this paper, we study whether FXI has been an effective tool to dampen the effects of these inflows on the exchange rate. To deal with endogeneity issues, we look at the response of different countries to plausibly exogenous gross inflows, and explore the cross country variation of FXI and exchange rate responses. Consistent with the portfolio balance channel, we find that larger FXI leads to less exchange rate appreciation in response to gross inflows. |
| Keywords: | Central banks and their policies;Foreign exchange;Foreign exchange intervention;Capital flows;exchange rate, gross capital flows, exchange, market, General, |
| Date: | 2015–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/159&r=all |
| By: | Simon Gray; Runchana Pongsaparn |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the reasons for central bank (CB) issuance of securities, and reasons for choosing different approaches e.g. in maturities and target market. It provides evidence on the range of different approaches taken by those CBs which do issue, as well as suggesting reasons why some CBs do not; and provides operational guidelines on the major building blocks of the issuance of CB securities. |
| Keywords: | Central banks and their policies;Liquidity management;central bank securities, securities market development, securities, central bank, issuance, central banks, securities issuance, General, |
| Date: | 2015–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/106&r=all |
| By: | Tamim Bayoumi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines domestic policy cooperation, a curiously neglected issue. Both international and domestic cooperation were live issues in the 1970s when the IS/LM model predicted very different external outcomes from monetary and fiscal policies. Interest in domestic policy cooperation has since fallen on hard intellectual times—with knock-ons to international cooperation—as macroeconomic policy roles became highly compartmentalized. I first discuss the intellectual and policy making undercurrents behind this neglect, and explain why they are less relevant after the global crisis. This is followed by a discussion of: macroeconomic policy cooperation in a world of more fiscal activism; coordination across financial agencies and with macroeconomic policies; and how structural policies fit into this. The paper concludes with a proposal for a “grand bargain†across principle players to create a “new domestic cooperation.†|
| Keywords: | Crisis management;Central bank independence;Macroprudential Policy;Domestic Policy Cooperation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, central bank, international monetary fund, central banks, Structure and Scope of Government, General, |
| Date: | 2015–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/156&r=all |
| By: | Reuven Glick; Andrew K. Rose |
| Abstract: | In our European Economic Review (2002) paper, we used pre-1998 data on countries participating in and leaving currency unions to estimate the effect of currency unions on trade using (then-) conventional gravity models. In this paper, we use a variety of empirical gravity models to estimate the currency union effect on trade and exports, using recent data which includes the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We have three findings. First, our assumption of symmetry between the effects of entering and leaving a currency union seems reasonable in the data but is uninteresting. Second, EMU typically has a smaller trade effect than other currency unions; it has a mildly stimulating effect at best. Third and most importantly, estimates of the currency union effect on trade are sensitive to the exact econometric methodology; the lack of consistent and robust evidence undermines confidence in our ability to reliably estimate the effect of currency union on trade. |
| JEL: | F15 F33 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21535&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. African Dept. |
| Abstract: | KEY ISSUES Context. The region continued to experience strong growth in 2014, led by the continued economic expansion in Cote d’Ivoire. The outlook is for further strong growth, subject to a range of downward risks, in particular political instability ahead of upcoming elections in several countries, and security issues in Mali and Niger. With an elevated fiscal deficit exerting pressure on the balance of payments and the regional financial market, delays in fiscal consolidation or structural reforms pose the main medium-term risks. Policy recommendations: • Fiscal consolidation. Safeguarding external stability in the region will require governments to adhere to their budget deficit reduction plans while maintaining public investment efforts, which will require increasing tax revenue and controlling current expenditure. • Monetary policy. Macroeconomic conditions do not warrant a tightening of monetary policy at this juncture. However, if fiscal deficits do not decline as envisaged, the BCEAO should consider increasing its policy rates. In the mean time, the BCEAO should very closely follow the evolution of the macro-prudential risks flowing from its sharp increase in commercial bank refinancing. • Financial stability. The WAEMU authorities should enforce existing prudential rules and raise standards to international best practice. Ongoing reforms go in the right direction but need to be accelerated. • Structural transformation and regional integration. Policies to promote structural transformation should focus on addressing weaknesses, such as the lack of education and training, finance, and supportive regulatory environments. Countries should refrain from using the possibility to deviate from the common external tariff of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in force since January 1, 2015, in order to protect the gains from regional integration in WAEMU. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal consolidation;Economic indicators;Bank supervision;Economic growth;Fiscal reforms;Fiscal policy;Monetary policy;Press releases;Staff Reports;West African Economic and Monetary Union;West Africa;monetary fund, deficit, central bank, security |
| Date: | 2015–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/100&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy;Economic growth;Inflation;Banking sector;Loans;Bank supervision;Fiscal reforms;Selected Issues Papers;Euro Area;debt, investment, unemployment, productivity |
| Date: | 2015–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/205&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. African Dept. |
| Abstract: | CEMAC’s economic outlook has changed dramatically since the last discussions because of the significant decline in international oil prices. The financial sector is shallow, and financial intermediation and inclusion are limited. The regional institutions face considerable challenges, including from political interference and capacity constraints. Downside risks are important, as CEMAC is vulnerable to protracted low oil prices and a possible relapse in regional security crises. |
| Keywords: | Central African Economic and Monetary Community;Economic integration;Fiscal consolidation;External shocks;Economic growth;Oil prices;Millennium Development Goals;Monetary policy;Press releases;Staff Reports;investment, exchange, public investment, oil price |
| Date: | 2015–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/222&r=all |