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on Monetary Economics |
| By: | Ansgar Belke |
| Abstract: | The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms of an efficient future crisis management framework one has to ask what follows after the EFSF and the EFSM expire in 3 years time. In this vein, this briefing paper addresses the question of the political and economic medium-to long-term consequences of the recent decisions. Moreover, we assess what needs to be done using this window of opportunity of the coming 3 years. Which institutions need to be formalized, into what format, in order to achieve a coherent whole structure? This briefing paper presents and evaluates alternatives as regards the on-going debate on establishing permanent instruments to support the stability of the euro. Among them are the enhancement of the effectiveness of the Stability and Growth Pact combined with the introduction of a "European semester" and a macroeconomic surveillance and crisis mechanism, fiscal limits hard-coded into each country's legislation in the form of automatic, binding and unchangeable rules and, as the preferred solution, the European Monetary Fund. |
| Keywords: | EU governance, European Financial Stability Facility, European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism, European Monetary Fund, policy coordination, Stability and GrowthPact |
| JEL: | E61 E62 P48 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1076&r=mon |
| By: | D'Adamo, Gaetano |
| Abstract: | Interest Rate rules are often estimated as simple reaction functions linking the policy interest rate to variables such as (forecasted) inflation and the output gap; however, the coefficients estimated with this approach are convolutions of structural and preference parameters. I propose an approach to estimate Central Bank preferences starting from the Central Bank's optimization problem within a small open economy. When we consider open economies in a regime of Inflation Targeting, the issue of the role of the exchange rate in the Monetary Policy rule becomes relevant. The empirical analysis is conducted on Sweden, to verify whether the recent stabilization of the Krona/Euro exchange rate was due to “Fear of Floating”; the results show that the exchange rate might not have played a role in monetary policy, suggesting that the stabilization probably occurred as a result of increased economic integration and business cycle convergence. |
| Keywords: | Interest Rate Rules; Inflation Targeting; Central Bank Preferences; Fear of Floating. |
| JEL: | C32 E58 E52 |
| Date: | 2010–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:26575&r=mon |
| By: | Sanchita Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of capital market openness on exchange rate pass-through and subsequently on the social loss function in an inflation-targeting small open economy under a pure commitment policy. Applying the intuition behind the macroeconomic trilemma, the author examines whether a more open capital market in an inflation-targeting country improves the credibility of the central bank and consequently reduces exchange rate pass-through. First, the effect of capital openness on exchange rate pass-through is empirically examined using a new Keynesian Phillips curve. The empirical investigation reveals that limited capital openness leads to greater pass-through from the exchange rate to domestic inflation, which raises the marginal cost of deviation from the inflation target. This subsequently worsens the inflation output-gap trade-off and increases the social loss of the inflation targeting central bank under pure commitment. However, the calibration results suggest that the inflation output-gap trade-off improves and the social loss decreases even in the presence of larger exchange rate pass-through if the capital controls are effective at insulating the exchange rate from interest rate and risk-premia shocks. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy ; Inflation targeting ; Foreign exchange |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1018&r=mon |
| By: | Barbara Annicchiarico (Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Alessandro Piergallini (Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | The adoption of a Taylor-type monetary policy rule and an inflation target for emerging market economies that choose a flexible exchange rate regime is often advocated. This paper investigates the issue of exchange rate determination when interest-rate feedback rules are implemented in a continuous-time optimizing model of a small open economy facing an imperfect global capital market. It is demonstrated that when a risk premium on external debt affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the Taylor principle is not a necessary condition for determinacy of equilibrium. On the other hand, it is shown that exchange rate dynamics critically depends on whether monetary policy is active or passive. In terms of optimal monetary policy, it is demonstrated that the degree of responsiveness of the nominal interest rate to inflation should be related to the stock of foreign debt. Specifically, it is optimal to implement a more passive monetary policy stance in response to larger levels of the outstanding foreign-currency-denominated debt. |
| Keywords: | Risk Premium on Foreign Debt; Taylor Rules; Exchange Rate Dynamics. |
| JEL: | F31 F32 E52 |
| Date: | 2010–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:174&r=mon |
| By: | João Valle e Azevedo; Ana Pereira |
| Abstract: | We show how monetary aggregates can be usefully incorporated in forecasts of inflation. This requires fully disregarding the high-frequency fluctuations blurring the money/inflation relation, i.e., the projection of inflation onto monetary aggregates must be restricted to the low frequencies. Using the same tools, we show that money growth has (little) predictive power over output at business cycle frequencies. |
| JEL: | C51 E31 E32 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201024&r=mon |
| By: | Florian Verheyen |
| Abstract: | The past years were characterized by unprecedented rises in prices of commodities such as oil or wheat and inflation rates moved up above the mark of two percent per annum. This led to a revival of the debate whether commodity prices indicate future CPI inflation and if they can be used as indicator variables for central banks or not. We apply various econometric methods like Granger causality tests and SVAR models to US data. The results corroborate the notion that there was a strong link between commodity prices and CPI inflation in the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. For a more recent sample, the relationship has weakened, respectively diminished. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; commodity prices; infl ation; United States; SVAR |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0216&r=mon |
| By: | Rageh, Rania |
| Abstract: | The main objective of the paper in hand is to examine the validity of using Taylor rule as a robust rule for conducting monetary policy in case of Egypt. In this context, the paper works through two main pillars. First: parts two and three; critically analyze the theoretical grounds for using an interest rate rule in conducting monetary policy. Second: part four; emphasize how the Taylor rule can be empirically estimated and evaluated. Consistently; this exercised while estimating and evaluating both simple backward and forward-looking Taylor rule for Egypt, guided by lessons from selected countries` experiences in estimating Taylor rule like U.S.A., U.K and Chile. JEL Classification Numbers: E52; E58 |
| Keywords: | Keywords: central bank; monetary policy; Taylor rule. |
| JEL: | E58 E52 |
| Date: | 2010–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:26639&r=mon |
| By: | Coulibaly, D.; Kempf, H. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we empirically examine the effect of inflation targeting on the exchange rate pass-through to prices in emerging countries. We use a panel VAR that allows us to use a large dataset on twenty-seven emerging countries (fifteen inflation targeters and twelve inflation nontargeters). Our evidence suggests that inflation targeting in emerging countries contributed to a reduction in the pass-through to various price indexes (import prices, producer prices and consumer prices) from a higher level to a new level that is significantly different from zero. The variance decomposition shows that the contribution of exchange rate shocks to price fluctuations is more important in emerging targeters compared to nontargeters, and the contribution of exchange rate shocks to price fluctuations in emerging targeters declines after adopting inflation targeting. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Pass-Through, panel VAR. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F41 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:303&r=mon |
| By: | Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Wan Ngah, Wan Azman Saini; Abdul Karim, Bakri |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate the relevance of bank-lending channel (BLC) of monetary policy in a small-open economy, i.e. Malaysia by using disaggregated bank-level data set. A dynamic panel data method namely GMM framework proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991), Arellano and Bover (1995), and Blundell and Bond (1998) have been used in estimating the dynamic of banks’ loan supply function. The empirical evidence has stated that monetary policy shocks is significantly and negatively influenced the banks’ loan supply, and therefore has supported the existence of BLC in Malaysia. In addition, several bank-characteristics variables namely bank liquidity and bank capitalization (capital adequacy ratio) are also statistically significant in influencing the banks’ loan supply. Therefore, the implementation of monetary policy is effective in influencing economic activity via bank balance sheet position, in particular bank loans. |
| Keywords: | Bank-lending channel; monetary policy; dynamic panel data |
| JEL: | E58 E52 C33 |
| Date: | 2010–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:26157&r=mon |
| By: | Gaffeo, E.; Petrella, I.; Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel explanation of the vast empirical evidence showing that output and prices react asymmetrically to monetary policy innovations over contractions and expansions in the business cycle. We use VAR techniques to show that monetary policy exerts stronger e¤ects on the U.S. GDP during contractionary phases, as compared to expansionary ones. As to prices, their response is not statistically different across different cyclical stages. We show that these facts are consistent with a New Neoclassical Synthesis model based on the assumption that households' utility partly depends on deviations of their consumption from a reference level below which aversion to loss is displayed. In line with the theory developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), losses in consumption utility loom larger than gains. This implies state-dependent degrees of real rigidity and elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption that generate competing effects on the responses of output and inflation following a monetary innovation. The key predictions of the model are in line with the data. We then explore the state-dependent trade-o¤ between inflation and output stabilization that naturally arises in this context. Greater elasticity of inflation to real activity during expansionary stages of the cycle promotes a stronger degree of policy activism in the response to the expected rate of inflation under discretion, compared to what is otherwise prescribed during contractions. |
| Keywords: | Reference-dependent Preferences;Asymmetry;Monetary policy. |
| JEL: | E32 E52 D11 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2010111&r=mon |
| By: | Mehrotra, Aaron (Bank of Finland Research) |
| Abstract: | This thesis consists of four essays in empirical macroeconomics. The first three essays examine the conduct of monetary policy during a disinflationary and deflationary era, with the policy interest rates close to or at the zero bound. The questions of interest include the potency of the interest rate channel, the stability of broad money demand, and the possibility to use the exchange rate channel in order to affect economic activity and the price level. We use time series econometrics techniques, mainly vector autoregressions, focusing on Japan. While we find that basic relationships between the variables appear unaltered by deflation, a further stimulative impact is difficult to implement once the zero bound is hit. This can be due to political reasons, as in the case of introducing a tax on currency in order to bring about negative interest rates, or because the needed stimulus is very big, as in the case of yen depreciation to increase the price level. The last essay focuses on the fiscal policy aspects of the European Union’s most recent enlargement. We examine whether the fiscal austerity required by the Maastricht criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact would be harmful for the socio-economic development of the new Member States. Introducing an indicator for socio-economic development and utilizing instrumental variables regressions, we find that fiscal retrenchment, including a lower level of public debt, would be advantageous for development. A policy implication is to maintain the Stability and Growth Pact or an equivalent intergovernmental fiscal rule to curb public spending and debt. |
| Keywords: | deflation; disinflation; zero lower bound; broadly defined liquidity; socio-economic development; Stability and Growth Pact; EU enlargement |
| JEL: | E00 E31 E60 N00 |
| Date: | 2010–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofism:2006_034&r=mon |
| By: | Eliana González; Luis F. Melo; Luis E. Rojas; Brayan Rojas |
| Abstract: | Three methodologies to estimate the natural interest rate, NIR, are implemented for the Colombian economy. Two methods are statistical filters and the third involves some economic theory. The first method is based on unobserved components decomposition of the real interest rate and explores the statistical characteristics of the data. The second is a multivariate version of the Hodrick-Prescott filter augmented by an economic relationship, HPMV. The NIR in both cases is defined as the trend component of the market real interest rate; then, the NIR may be considered as a long-run real interest rate anchor for monetary policy. The third method consists in estimating a semi-structural model for a small open economy. In this case the NIR is defined as the interest rate that does not affect the output dynamics in the short run and assures output and inflation convergence to their long run equilibriums. This implies that the NIR is a medium-run anchor for monetary policy. Three features are observed in the dynamics of the NIR estimates for the period 2000-2009. The first part of the sample (2000-2003) shows a downward trend, followed by a period of stabilization and upward trend (2004-2008) and at the end of the sample the NIR start decreasing again. The NIR in the last quarter of the sample, 2009Q2, is around 3.1 in average. |
| Date: | 2010–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:007667&r=mon |
| By: | Ippei Fujiwara |
| Abstract: | When a small open economy experiences a sufficiently large negative export shock, it is vulnerable to falling into a zero bound trap. In addition, such a shock can have very large impact on the economy compared to the case when the zero bound is not a binding constraint. This could be one possible explanation as to why a country like Japan experienced much larger drop in output than the United States during the recent financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy ; Banks and banking, Central ; Global financial crisis ; Interest rates ; Japan |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:63&r=mon |
| By: | Cizakca, Murat |
| Abstract: | The claims that the Islamic gold dinar will avoid inflation and other ills of current economic crises are examined by studying how coinage systems actually functioned in history.The article shows that not only these claims are baseless but also that coinage would increase the prevailing interest rate in an economy - hardly an Islamic position. It is argued that a gold or silver based dinar would be harmful for Islamic societies and attempts to introduce them should therefore be prohibited. |
| Keywords: | Islamic gold dinar; interest rate; Gresham's Law; barter; commodity money; money as a medium of exchange; fiat money |
| JEL: | Z12 O53 |
| Date: | 2010–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:26645&r=mon |
| By: | Jennifer L. Castle; Jurgen A. Doornik; David F. Hendry; Ragnar Nymoen |
| Abstract: | The new-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) includes expected future inflation as a major feedforward variable to explain current inflation. Models of this type are regularly estimated by replacing the expected value by the actual future outcome, then using Instrumental Variables or Generalized Method of Moments methods to estimate the parameters. However, the underlying theory does not allow for various forms of non-stationarity in the data - despite the fact that crises, breaks and regimes shifts are relatively common. We investigate the consequences for NKPC estimation of breaks in data processes using the new technique of impulse-indicator saturation, and apply the resulting methods to salient published studies to check their viablility. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian Phillips curve, inflation expectations, structural breaks, impulse-indicator, saturation |
| JEL: | C51 C22 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:510&r=mon |
| By: | Ojo, Marianne |
| Abstract: | Rescue cases involving guarantees (contrasted with restructuring cases) during the recent Financial Crisis, have illustrated the prominent position which the goal of promoting financial stability has assumed over that of the prevention or limitation of possible distortions of competition which may arise when granting State aid. The recent Financial Crisis has also illustrated how the traditional role of central banks has been extended to incorporate more innovative roles. The reduction of interest rates by central banks to all time lows – along with other unprecedented actions which have been undertaken by central banks, as evidenced by the recent Financial Crisis, have been regarded as „extensions of traditional methods of operation which have resulted in a new territory in which tools have been implemented in very new ways.“ As well as providing an analysis of how the traditional role of central banks has evolved through the duration of the Financial Crisis, this paper attempts to highlight how far central banks and governments should intervene and how far distortions of competition should be permitted during periods of financial crises. |
| Keywords: | competition; central banks; recapitalisation; stability; regulation; financial crises; fundamentally sound financial institutions; macro prudential; Basel III; systemic risk; supervision; liquidity; state aid; monetary policy |
| JEL: | K2 E58 |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:26605&r=mon |
| By: | Giorgio Gomel (Banca d'Italia); Angelo Cicogna (Banca d'Italia); Domenico De Falco (Banca d'Italia); Marco Valerio Della Penna (Banca d'Italia); Lorenzo Di Bona De Sarzana (Banca d'Italia); Angela Di Maria (Banca d'Italia); Patrizia Di Natale (Banca d'Italia); Alessandra Freni (Banca d'Italia); Sergio Masciantonio (Banca d'Italia); Giacomo Oddo (Banca d'Italia); Emilio Vadalà (Banca d'Italia) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses Islamic finance from the central bank and supervisory authorityÂ’s perspective, focusing on the European and Italian context. It depicts a rapidly expanding sector, with recent annual growth rates of between 10 and 15 percent and a geographical presence that now reaches several Western countries. Future prospects, however, could be hampered by problems concerning the standardization of products, governance structure, supervisory regulation, monetary policy instruments, and liquidity management. Islamic intermediaries are not necessarily riskier than traditional counterparts but their operational structure tends to be more complex. Key issues in supervision include the treatment of investment accounts and transparency. It has been seen that there are limits to the efficiency of the monetary policy instruments developed so far to remedy the prohibition of interest; moreover, the growth of interbank and money markets is hindered by a shortage of "Shari'ah-compliant" products. Problems arising from the participation of Islamic banks in payment systems are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | Islamic finance, Islamic financial institutions, supervision, monetary policy instrments, payment systems |
| JEL: | G20 F39 Z12 |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_73_10&r=mon |
| By: | Andrew Coleman (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the uncovered interest parity hypothesis using the dollar-sterling exchange rate during the gold standard era. This period is interesting because the exchange rate was seasonal, because transactions costs were high, and because occasions when uncovered interest rate speculation did not occur can be identified. The paper shows UIP speculation frequently did not occur, that speculation occurred more in response to expected exchange rate changes than interest rate differentials, and that profitability varied systematically with interest rate differentials. The estimated UIP equations are substantially improved by distinguishing occasions when sterling was borrowed not lent. |
| Keywords: | Uncovered interest parity, gold standard |
| JEL: | N21 F31 |
| Date: | 2010–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:10_02&r=mon |
| By: | Cruijsen, C.A.B. van der; Eijffinger, S.C.W. (Tilburg University); Hoogduin, L.H. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-4163962&r=mon |
| By: | Pavlina R. Tcherneva |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s recipe for deflation fighting and the specific policy actions he took in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Both in his academic and in his policy work, Bernanke has made the case that monetary policy is able to stem deflationary forces largely because of its "fiscal components," and that governments like those in the United States or Japan face no constraints in financing these fiscal components. On the other hand, he has recently expressed strong concerns about the size of the federal budget deficit, calling for its reversal in the name of financial sustainability. The paper argues that these positions are fundamentally at odds with each other, and resolves the paradox by arguing on theoretical and technical grounds that there are no fundamental differences in financing conventional government spending programs and what Bernanke considers to be the fiscal components of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Bernanke; Deflation; Monetary Policy; Crowding Out; Financial Sustainability |
| JEL: | E31 E42 E58 E63 E65 |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_636&r=mon |
| By: | Trabelsi, Emna |
| Abstract: | In earlier theoretical framework, Morris and Shin (2002) highlight the potential dangers of transparency policy. In particular, public announcements may be detrimental to social welfare. Later, Morris and Shin (2005) uphold that more precise communication can degrade the signal value of prices. Researchers suggest reducing the precision of public information or withholding it. Cornand and Heinemann (2008) suggest rather limiting the publicity degree. We found that the same effect can be reached by establishing fragmented public information, but in presence of private signal. |
| Keywords: | transparency ; central bank communication ; semi public information ; private information ; coordination |
| JEL: | E58 D83 D82 |
| Date: | 2010–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:26647&r=mon |
| By: | Mark J. Holmes (Department of Economics, Waikato University Management School); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Jesus Otero (Facultad de Economia, Universidad del Rosario) |
| Abstract: | The validity of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is examined for a sample of Asian countries. A panel stationarity testing procedure is employed that addresses both structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence. Asian term structures are found to be stationary and supportive of the expectations hypothesis. Further analysis suggests that international financial integration is associated with interdependencies between domestic and foreign term structures insofar as cross-term structures based on differentials between domestic (foreign) short- and foreign (domestic) long-rates are also stationary. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous dynamic panels, term structure, mean reversion, panel stationarity test |
| JEL: | C33 F31 F33 G15 |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2010_18&r=mon |
| By: | Komulainen, Tuomas (Bank of Finland Research) |
| Abstract: | The financial crises in emerging markets in 1997-1999 were preceded by financial liberalisation, rapid surges in capital inflows, increased levels of indebtedness, and then sudden capital outflows. The study contains four essays that extend the different generations of crisis literature and analyse the role of capital movements and borrowing in the recent crises. Essay 1 extends the first generation models of currency crises. It analyses bond financing of fiscal deficits in domestic and foreign currency, and compares the timing and magnitude of attack with the basic case where deficits are monetised. The essay finds that bond financing may not delay the crisis. But if the country’s indebtedness is low, the crisis is delayed by bond financing, especially if the borrowing is carried out with bonds denominated in foreign currency. Essay 2 extends the second generation model of currency crises by adding capital flows. If these depend negatively on crisis probability, there will be multiple equilibria. The range of country fundamentals for which self-fulfilling crises are possible is wider when capital flows are included, and thus more countries may end up in crisis. An application of the model shows that in 1996 in many emerging economies the fundamentals were inside the range of multiple equilibria and hence self-fulfilling crises were possible. Essay 3 studies financial contagion and develops a model of the international financial system. It uses a basic model of financial intermediation, but adds several local banks and an international bank. These banks are able to use outside borrowing, the amount of which is determined by the value of their collateral. The essay finds that the use of leverage by local and global banks and the fall in collateral prices comprise an important channel and reason for contagion. Essay 4 analyses the causes of financial crises in 31 emerging market countries in 1980–2001. A probit model is estimated using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector indicators. The essay finds that traditional variables (eg unemployment and inflation) and several indicators of indebtedness (eg private sector liabilities and banks' foreign liabilities) explain currency crises. When the sample was divided into pre- and post-liberalisation periods, the indicators of indebtedness became more important in predicting crisis in the postliberalisation period. |
| Keywords: | currency crises; banking crises; emerging markets; borrowing; collateral; contagion; liberalisation |
| JEL: | E50 E60 F00 N20 O10 O40 |
| Date: | 2010–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofism:2004_029&r=mon |