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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Hayo, Bernd (University of Marburg); Roth, Duncan H.W. (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | A sizeable literature analyses how immigration affects attitudes towards migrants and discusses differences between socio-economic groups and their potential correlation with perceived concerns about labour market competition. Against the background of the large-scale influx of refugees into Germany between 2015 and 2016, this paper uses data from a unique and representative survey of the German population to assess whether respondents express fears of job loss due to immigration. We focus on the importance of perceptions of migrants' ability to do one's job in relation to these fears. Moreover, we compare concerns about refugees with those about EU migrants and propose several hypotheses. Our findings indicate that: (i) Respondents are more likely to view EU migrants as potential competitors in the labour market. (ii) Workers in blue-collar occupations and without tertiary education are more likely to view migrants as potential competitors on the labour market. (iii) The perception of potential competition from migrants strongly predicts fear of job loss. Once we control for this perception, occupation and skill levels are no longer significantly related to the probability of reporting fear of job loss. Moreover, there are no longer significant differences between the two migrant groups. (iv) Anti-migrant sentiments are also associated with concerns about job loss. |
| Keywords: | refugees, EU migration, immigration, labour market, perceptions, competition, job loss, Germany |
| JEL: | F22 J61 D84 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17278 |
| By: | Gökçe, Merve Betül (Bogazici University); Kirdar, Murat Güray (Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of the Syrian civil war and refugee status on the risk of physical intimate partner violence (IPV) among Syrian women in Jordan, the country with the second highest refugee-to-native ratio worldwide. We analyze data from the 2017-18 Jordan Population and Family Health Survey, which includes a nationally representative sample of Syrian refugees. Using the information on the timing of first violence after marriage within a discrete-time duration analysis, we examine the hazard rates of IPV exposure across different periods: prewar Syria, postwar Syria, and refugee status. Our findings demonstrate that war and refugee status increase the risk of IPV, and these findings persist for women who were married before the civil war. Additionally, the rise in IPV after the refugees' arrival in Jordan diminishes over time. The study identifies the economic strain resulting from lower household wealth and refugee husbands' employment losses as a driver of the rise in IPV. Moreover, our innovative approach utilizing GPS locations of refugee households to calculate refugee density reveals that greater social isolation, indicated by reduced proximity to other refugees, significantly exacerbates the risk of IPV among these women. In addition, we explore whether the civil war and refugee status alter marriage patterns, which could contribute to the observed effects on IPV. Both the civil war and forced migration lower the marriage age and increase the incidence of non-cousin marriages at the expense of cousin marriages—both of which are associated with a higher risk of IPV. |
| Keywords: | Syrian refugees, forced migration, intimate partner violence, physical violence, war and displacement, Jordan |
| JEL: | J12 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17284 |
| By: | Pascal Beckers; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ksenija Ivanović; Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Friedrich Poeschel; Alireza Sabouniha (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of labour shortages on migration aspirations and destination preferences among individuals from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. Using a two-stage Heckman selection model, we analyse data from the OeNB Euro Survey and the World Bank’s STEP Measurement Program. The results indicate that labour shortages significantly influence migration decisions individuals are more likely to aspire to migrate if there is a shortage of workers in their occupation in the aspired destination countries, while shortages in their home country reduce migration aspirations. These findings suggest that both origin and destination countries should consider labour market conditions when formulating migration policies. For destination countries, highlighting demand for specific skills can attract needed workers, while Western Balkan countries should address the education-labour market mismatch to mitigate local shortages. Policy co-ordination between regions is crucial to manage migration flows and address skill gaps without exacerbating local shortages. |
| Keywords: | migration drivers, migration aspirations/desires, destination decision, choice model |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:252 |
| By: | Brian Bell; Philip Johnson |
| Abstract: | We examine the wage and occupation outcomes for cohorts of immigrants who arrived in the UK since 2002. Using the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) with a matched migrant identifier, we can follow a 1% sample of all workers (native and migrant) within and across jobs. This also allows us to identify relative attrition rates between natives and migrants. The work focuses in particular on workers who arrived in the UK since 2004 as part of EU expansion. Consistent with prior work, we find substantial evidence of occupational downgrading for these migrants. Importantly, the panel data allows us to track these workers in subsequent years and we find very little evidence of substantial labour market improvement from initial entry. This result is robust to accounting for non-random attrition. |
| Keywords: | wages, immigration |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2032 |
| By: | Ghasemi, Parisa (University of Coimbra); Teixeira, Paulino (University of Coimbra); Carreira, Carlos (University of Coimbra) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the impact of the share of the foreign labor force on the wage of native workers in Portugal between 2010 and 2019 using linked employer-employee data from Quadros de Pessoal. By leveraging job characteristics from the O*NET skill taxonomy, we create more homogeneous skill groups, enabling a precise analysis of immigration's impact on specific skill sets. The empirical analysis, focusing on occupation-experience groups, reveals a positive association between native wages and immigrant shares. In contrast, when groups are based on education-experience, the relationship appears negative. These contradictory findings suggest that the impact of immigration on native wages varies significantly depending on how labor markets are segmented. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates a positive and statistically significant effect on native wages in high-skilled occupations, while native wages in low-skilled occupations are negatively affected due to increased competition. Our findings highlight the importance of considering occupation classification over simple education levels and suggest that diverse results in existing literature may be due to sample averaging. |
| Keywords: | immigration, native wages, native-immigrants' complementarities |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17266 |
| By: | Giovanni Bernardo; Pasquale Commendatore; Giovanni Fosco |
| Abstract: | People move for various reasons, including economic, social, political, demographic, and environmental factors. Environmental quality, in particular, plays a crucial role in migration decisions. This study examines the relationship between air pollution (measured as the maximum number of days in which at least one monitoring station detects an excess of 50 µg/m3 of PM10 above the established limit) and internal migration in Italy. Employing a difference-in-differences (diff-in-diff) strategy, our analysis reveals a negative relationship between air pollution and internal migration. We exploit two major legislative interventions in environmental regulation — LD 152/2006 and LD 155/2010 — as exogenous shocks affecting air pollution. We find that these environmental regulations significantly reduced the number of pollution exceeding days in municipal areas, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of those areas more committed to reducing urban emissions. Specifically, the combined effect of the two decrees led to an increase of approximately three new citizens per 1, 000 inhabitants in the more committed areas, highlighting the importance of proactive environmental policies in influencing migration patterns and improving urban livability. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, Migration, Environmental policy |
| JEL: | O15 Q53 Q56 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/312 |
| By: | Blit, Joel; Skuterud, Mikal; Zhang, Ruiwen |
| Abstract: | A key objective of Canada's International Education Strategy (2014) isto leverage Canada's postsecondary institutions to attract and retain the world's "best and brightest" students to raise the average skill of the Canadian population and boost economic growth. However, evidence suggests that Canada's former international students experience significant labour market integration challenges, and the Strategy overlooks these challenges. The earnings disparities of former international students, and Canadian immigrants more generally, are usually interpreted as evidence of skill underutilization owing to employer discrimination against racial and ethnic minorities. Hard evidence of skill underutilization is, however, scant due to a dearth of data providing direct measures of workers' skills. Our study brings new evidence to bear on the skill underutilization hypothesis by examining a unique linkage of student records from the University of Waterloo, including students' grades, with immigration data from Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada and T1 income tax returns from the Canada Revenue Agency. UWaterloo is best known for its academic programs in computer science, mathematics, and engineering, which has earned it the moniker the "MIT of the North." Evidence that UWaterloo's international student graduates struggle in Canadian labour markets relative to their Canadian-born counterparts graduating from the same academic programs with similar academic standing provides a direct test of the skill underutilization hypothesis. The evidence also offers critical lessons on whether policy efforts to realize the full economic potential of international students are best directed at augmenting employer hiring behaviour through DEI initiatives, for example, or at improving the attraction and selection of international talent and promoting skill formation, including language training. |
| Keywords: | Migration policy, Students, Strategy, Labor market integration, Canada |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:303035 |
| By: | Dardati, Evangelina; Laurent, Thibault; Margaretic, Paula; Thomas-Agnan, Christine |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive dataset of bilateral migration flows and employing the Palmer index as a proxy for climate change, we demonstrate that conflict acts as an amplifying mechanism for climate-induced migration. Our results show that, as drought conditions worsen, middle- and high-income countries experiencing conflict are more inclined to have higher rates of international out-migration. In particular, we find that one standard deviation contraction in the Palmer index, indicating drier conditions, is associated with a 12% increase in out-migration flows from middle/high-income countries experiencing conflict. We also explore spatial autocorrelation and observe positive and significant origin-and destination-spatial dependence effects. Our findings contribute to understanding the intricate dynamics of climate change, conflict, and international migration while offering insights into migration patterns across countries. |
| Keywords: | Migration flows, climate change, conflict, droughts |
| JEL: | C31 F22 Q34 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129726 |
| By: | Elías Albagli; Pablo García Silva; Gonzalo García-Trujillo; María Antonia Yung |
| Abstract: | This paper studies emigration pressures associated with climate change and sheds light on how they could evolve as climate degrades further. We start with a narrative approach focusing on four historical events. We document that severe climate disruption led to significant outward migration in the past, driven by social conflict, violence, and, in some cases, societal collapse. Then, we turn the analysis to the present. Using a regression panel approach for 154 countries between 1990 and 2020, we find a highly significant and nonlinear relationship between climate change and migration, with a U shape around a “temperature optimum.” The nonlinearity is stronger in poorer countries. Indeed, despite tropical climatic zones having experienced the smallest increase in temperature thus far, they exhibit the largest increase in outward migration due to their higher initial temperature and lower GDP per capita (limiting adaptation). Finally, we use the estimated model to project future migration under five IPCC scenarios and for a tipping point scenario (AMOC collapse). We find moderate effects on migration increase under moderate climate scenarios, but that migration would double for tropical areas in the most extreme scenario. In the AMOC collapse scenario, where regions close to the poles will freeze, we find much larger effects, with total outward migration being driven by cold and temperate climate countries. We conjecture that our results constitute a lower bound of the possible effects, given (i) the non-well-captured nonlinearities and (ii) the potential fall in income due to climate damages that limit adaptation. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1019 |
| By: | Yang, Dongkyu |
| Abstract: | The idea that labor scarcity can induce economic development has been long hypothesized (Hicks, 1932; Habakkuk, 1962), but the evidence is scarce, especially on non-agricultural development. In this paper, I assess the role of the Second Great Migration (1940-1970) on the subsequent structural change in the American South between 1970 and 2010. Empirical results using shift-share instruments show that out-migration incentivized physical capital investment and capital-augmenting technical change, increasing capital and output per worker in both agriculture and manufacturing at least until 2010. Labor reallocated from agriculture to nonagriculture. I then develop and calibrate a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that allows substitution between factors of production, factor-biased technical change, and Heckscher–Ohlin forces in trade. The quantitative results indicate that the adjustments to the Second Great Migration could have contributed to 7% of the total decrease in agricultural employment between 1940 and 2010 in the South. The contribution analyses suggest that labor-capital substitution played a leading role in economic adjustment to the migration, with capital-biased technical change and the quasi-Rybczynski effect playing important supplementary roles. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dtxn4 |
| By: | Andrew Glover; Jose Mustre-del-Rio |
| Abstract: | In the late 1990s, nearly 7 percent of young college graduates moved across state lines every year. These workers enjoyed 30 percent higher earnings three years after moving relative to similar stayers, but their gains were not immediate, amounting to only 7 percent in the first year post-move. By the mid-2010s, mobility fell by more than half, and average earnings gains among movers fell and became more front-loaded. At the same time, debt increased among all young college graduates. We propose a model of geographic mobility with incomplete markets, where moving to a new state can deliver earnings gains that are either front- or back-loaded. Incomplete markets and high interest rates on debt reduce workers’ acceptance of back-loaded opportunities, even if they have the same present-discounted increase in earnings as front-loaded opportunities. We find that lower potential gains account for most of the decline in mobility across periods, but that the lower initial wealth of young college graduates also reduced their mobility. The wealth effect on mobility is especially strong for poor individuals, so wealth changes generate an endogenous increase in income inequality later in the life cycle. Consistently, we find that tax-financed debt forgiveness policies generate higher mobility and earnings growth for low-wealth individuals and are, on average, welfare-increasing. |
| Keywords: | education; consumer economics; macroeconomic activity |
| JEL: | D60 E21 E44 |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:98815 |