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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Kangasharju, Aki |
| Abstract: | Abstract This memorandum summarises recent research findings on the effects of immigration to Finland. Analysed research papers are published mainly in 2024. The memorandum was sent as background material to the growth working group led by Risto Murto in November 2024. The memorandum consists of five perspectives: migration needs, structure, employment and income of immigrants, studies and qualifications, and macroeconomic impacts. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Economic effects, Destination country |
| JEL: | J61 D6 |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:146 |
| By: | Andersson, Fredrik W. (Statistics Sweden); Wadensjö, Eskil (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | The number of immigrants to Sweden has increased significantly in the last two decades. In 1990, 9 percent of the population was born abroad. Just over 60 percent of them were born in Finland, Norway and Denmark. Thirty years later, the corresponding figure of foreign born is 20 percent. The composition has also changed. Many have arrived as refugees mainly from countries outside Europe until the great wave of refugees from Ukraine in 2022. We concentrate in this article on one group, those who have come from Afghanistan, and examined how it has gone for them to establish themselves in the labour market in Sweden. |
| Keywords: | Swedish labour market, employment, migrants, Afghanistan |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J21 J60 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17562 |
| By: | van de Beek, Jan (Amsterdam School of Economics); Hartog, Joop (University of Amsterdam); Kreffer, Gerrit (Independent Researcher); Roodenburg, Hans (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | We use very detailed microdata on fiscal contributions and benefits of the entire population to calculate the discounted lifetime net contribution of the immigrant population present in The Netherlands in 2016. We differentiate by immigration motive and up to 87 source regions. Labour migrants' net contribution is positive, study, family and asylum immigrants' contributions are negative. Second generation scholastic performance scores at age 12 by social background are similar to scores for native Dutch children, highest education attained for given test scores is also similar, but incomes for given education levels are lower, and so are net contributions. The gap between net contributions of individuals with immigrant background and without immigrant background does not root in attained levels of schooling but in the benefits from schooling. Regional cultural distance to Protestant Europe is associated with large fiscal net contributions. |
| Keywords: | fiscal incidence, immigrants, cultural distance |
| JEL: | H5 J6 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17569 |
| By: | Diego A. Martin (Harvard's Growth Lab); Jose Ramon Morales Arilla (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Alvaro Morales |
| Abstract: | Do refugees settle in destinations that are ecologically similar to their origins? We assess the relevance of “climate matching” theories of migration for Venezuelan refugees in South America. Leveraging social media data, we build and validate the first local bilateral matrix of Venezuelan flows across the region. We measure bilateral ecological similarities in terms of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the coastline. Performing Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood gravity models of migration, we show that Venezuelan flows are more likely between ecologically similar areas. Model predictions explain independent measurements of Venezuelans’ settlement choices at both bilateral and destination levels. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Mass migration, Climate matching, Gravity migration models, Social media |
| JEL: | F2 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:237 |
| By: | Sallam, Hend; Christl, Michael |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the direct average net fiscal impact (ANFI) of migration in Germany, taking into account both indirect taxes and in-kind benefits such as health and education spending. Using a status quo approach with data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for 2018 and microsimulation techniques to impute both indirect taxes and in-kind benefits, our results show that migrants, especially first-generation migrants, have a more favorable net fiscal impact on average compared to natives. However, we demonstrate that this result is mainly driven by the favourable age structure of migrants. When controlling for demographic differences between these groups, we show that second-generation migrants contribute very similarly to natives to the German welfare state. Nevertheless, both natives and second-generation migrants, respectively, contribute more than first-generation migrants. These differences persist even when we do not account for indirect taxes and benefits-in-kind. |
| Keywords: | immigration, net fiscal impact, public finances, tax-benefit system |
| JEL: | F22 H24 H50 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1530 |
| By: | Duncan, Brian (University of Colorado Denver); Trejo, Stephen J. (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | Many U.S.-born descendants of Mexican immigrants do not identify as Mexican or Hispanic in response to the Hispanic origin question asked in the Census and other government surveys. Analyzing microdata from the 2000 U.S. Census and the 2001-2019 American Community Surveys, we show that the age at arrival of Mexican immigrants exerts an important influence on ethnic identification not only for these immigrants themselves but also for their U.S.-born children. Among Mexican immigrants who arrived as children, the rate of "ethnic attrition"—i.e., not self-identifying as Mexican or Hispanic—is higher for those who migrated at a younger age. Moreover, the children of these immigrants exhibit a similar pattern: greater ethnic attrition among children whose parents moved to the United States at a younger age. We unpack the relative importance of several key mechanisms—parental English proficiency, parental education, family structure, intermarriage, and geographic location—through which the age at arrival of immigrant parents influences the ethnic identification of their children. Intermarriage turns out to be the primary mechanism: Mexican immigrants who arrived at a very young age are more likely to marry non-Hispanics, and the rate of ethnic attrition is dramatically higher among children with mixed ethnic backgrounds. Prior research demonstrates that arriving at an early age hastens and furthers the integration of immigrants. We show here that this pattern also holds for ethnic identification and that the resulting differences in ethnic attrition among first-generation immigrants are transmitted to their second-generation children. |
| Keywords: | Hispanic, Mexican, immigrant integration, ethnic identification, immigrant age at arrival |
| JEL: | J15 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17579 |
| By: | Maczulskij, Terhi |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study examines the relationship between immigration and firmlevel innovation in the Finnish manufacturing sector. The analysis leverages unique matched data, including employees’ immigration status, firm-level patenting, process and product innovation activities, and innovation inputs spanning the 2000–2018 period. To address the potential endogeneity of a firm’s immigrant employment, an instrumental variables approach is employed using the historical geographic distribution of immigrants in the region where the firm is located. The results reveal that an increase in immigrant employment positively influences process and product innovation, and skilled foreign knowledge boosts the number of patent applications. Additionally, immigration leads to reduced external R&D expenditures, indicating that immigrant workers may substitute outsourced innovation inputs. The study also finds no evidence that immigration adversely affects native workers’ employment in Finnish firms. By contrast, it may benefit natives with complementary skills. |
| Keywords: | Firm-level, Immigration, Innovation |
| JEL: | D22 F22 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:124 |
| By: | Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); López Molina, Gonzalo (Analistas Financieros Internacionales) |
| Abstract: | What is the future of international migration flows? The growing availability of bilateral international migration data has resulted in an improved understanding of the determinants of migration flows through the estimation of theory-based gravity models. However, the use of these models as a prediction tool has remained a mostly unexplored research area. This paper estimates simple gravity models of bilateral migration flows for the whole world and projects these models into the future. Our results confirm a limited role for economic factors and a large one for demographic ones, in line with the literature. As a novel contribution, we show that estimates based on net flows are substantially lower than those based on gross flows. The reason is that network effects are historically more correlated with gross than with net flows. |
| Keywords: | international migration, prediction, gravity model |
| JEL: | F22 J11 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17572 |
| By: | Barboni, Giorgia (Warwick University); de Roux, Nicolás (Universidad de los Andes); Perez-Cardona, Santiago (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We conducted a telephonic survey experiment with 2, 214 Venezuelan migrants to examine how their perceptions of Colombian’s social acceptance influence their engagement with the financial system. We find that 66% of the subjects we interviewed underestimate the extent to which natives are open towards migrants. We then show that providing accurate information reduces belief errors by 23 percentage points. This correction increases migrants’ willingness to interact with the financial system. In particular, individuals who initially underestimated Colombian’s acceptance of migrants are 15% more likely to visit a bank and request financial information in the next two months relative to the control group. These individuals also show a 12% increase in the willingness to open a digital wallet and an 18% increase in the willingness to open a savings account. These effects are concentrated among individuals who have not experienced episodes of discrimination in Colombia. We find no effects on the willingness to apply for a loan or an insurance product, consistent with the idea that supply barriers play a significant role for the financial inclusion of vulnerable populations. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we show that the increased willingness to engage with the financial system is driven by belief updating. Our findings highlight that misperceptions about native’s social acceptance of migrants can drive self-exclusion from the financial system. |
| Keywords: | Financial Inclusion; Migration; Beliefs; Social Acceptance |
| JEL: | D83 D91 F22 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021278 |
| By: | Kauhanen, Antti |
| Abstract: | Abstract The number of foreign experts arriving in Finland has been growing in the 2000s. Finland is thus able to attract foreign talent, although they focus on certain sectors, such as higher education and the information and communication sector. However, a significant proportion of foreign talent leaves Finland fairly quickly. In five years after arriving in Finland, already about half have left Finland. According to an indicator developed by the OECD, Finland is an attractive country for foreign experts. Finland’s strengths are a high quality of life and a high level of skills. Finland is also a good place to live from the point of view of families. Finland’s challenges in attracting foreign talent, on the other hand, are related to immigrants’ opportunities in the labour market, income and taxes, and the inclusiveness of society. Attitudes towards immigrants are more negative than in the other Nordic countries. However, Finland’s challenges can be met with policy measures. Productivity, and thus earnings, can be improved by maintaining a high level of skills and increasing investments in research and development. Research also shows that attitudes and policy views related to immigration can be influenced by disseminating research-based information on the social impacts of immigration. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Foreign professionals |
| JEL: | J61 J31 D24 |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:145 |
| By: | Pia M. Orrenius; Chloe N. Smith; Madeline Zavodny |
| Abstract: | Hiring someone who is not authorized to work in the United States is illegal, and employers who knowingly hire unauthorized immigrant workers may face civil and criminal penalties. The federal government uses a variety of actions, including worksite raids and paperwork audits, to enforce the prohibition on hiring unauthorized workers. Compliance costs and the possibility of becoming the target of an immigration enforcement action may affect U.S. businesses’ decisions about whom to hire as well as how many workers to employ and how much to pay them, but little previous research has studied such potential impacts. We find that increases in worksite enforcement actions in an industry raise employment but reduce the average wage. Enforcement also boosts both hires and separations, so worker turnover rises. Actions that target employers—audits, investigations, fines and criminal charges—have larger effects than raids, which target workers. The results are consistent with businesses shifting to on-the-books or legal workers when immigration enforcement activity increases. However, tougher enforcement does not lead to an increase in business sign-ups in E-Verify or IMAGE, which are two federal government programs that can help businesses determine whether workers are authorized. This suggests that, even in the face of tougher enforcement, employers find it costly to use programs that check workers’ employment eligibility. |
| Keywords: | unauthorized immigration; Immigration enforcement; raids; audits; E-Verify |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J63 K37 |
| Date: | 2024–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99175 |
| By: | Govind, Yajna (Copenhagen Business School); Melbourne, Jack (Bocconi University); Signorelli, Sara (CREST); Zink, Edith (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Does the labeling of neighborhoods affect their outcomes? Place-based policies targeting disadvantaged areas aim to improve their conditions, but the labels they impose carry consequences of their own. In this paper, we examine Denmark's Ghetto Plan which designated public housing areas with a large share of immigrant population, high crime, and high unemployment as "ghettos", with minimal additional implications. We exploit Danish administrative data, and adopt a Difference-in-Differences approach at the neighborhood and individual level. We find that the policy led to worsening average characteristics at the neighborhood level, largely due to compositional changes driven by Danish new entrants with lower income and education levels. Following individuals affected by the policy, we find significant negative effects on their income with no discernible effects on criminal behavior. We estimate that Danes are willing to accept a 3% drop in income to move out of labeled neighborhoods. In all, the Danish ghetto policy was largely ineffective, and in some aspects, even detrimental. |
| Keywords: | residential segregation, place-based policies, migration, neighborhood effects |
| JEL: | J15 J18 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17573 |
| By: | Tumen, Semih (Amazon); Vlassopoulos, Michael (University of Southampton); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impact of a large-scale Turkish language training program on the academic performance, school participation, and mental well-being of Syrian refugee children in T¨urkiye. Using rich administrative data and a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that the program led to improvements in Turkish language and Math scores of refugee students, along with a significant reduction in their school absences. The language gains and associated improvements in school outcomes are more pronounced for younger refugee children with lower pre-program academic performance, which suggests that early language interventions are more effective for integration. In addition, we provide evidence that the language training program generated modest positive spillovers on native students. Finally, we identify mental health as a potential key channel through which the program enhanced educational outcomes, as alleviating language barriers improved concentration, reduced anxiety, and decreased bullying. Our findings underline the critical role of language training in improving refugee students' educational outcomes and mental well-being, and fostering social cohesion. |
| Keywords: | language, refugee integration, school outcomes, mental health |
| JEL: | I21 I31 J15 J24 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17593 |
| By: | Wolfgang Stojetz; Piero Ronzani; Sarah Fenzl; Ghassan Baliki; Tilman Brück |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the social protection of refugees during a pandemic. A pandemic adds to the many existing challenges refugees face, creating a dangerous polycrisis. Drawing on detailed household-level data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees just before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyse the economic impacts of granting work permits to Syrian and Iraqi refugees in Jordan. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Social protection, Crisis, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-83 |
| By: | Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Vargas, Anna Rita P.; Baino, Madeleine Louise S.; Ruiz, Mark Gerald C.; Astilla-Magoncia, Danika |
| Abstract: | The Philippines has introduced initiatives to attract retirement migrants, including visa and residence permit programs and various incentives. Central to these efforts is the Special Resident Retiree’s Visa (SRRV), managed by the Philippine Retirement Authority (PRA). The SRRV offers a nonimmigrant visa to foreign nationals and former Filipinos, allowing for indefinite stays and multiple entries. This paper, part of a three-part research series, aims to assess the competitiveness of PRA’s retirement program compared to neighboring countries, profile prospective retirees, and identify ways to enhance program effectiveness. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study integrates quantitative and qualitative analyses, including competitor SWOT analysis, customer feedback, and value chain evaluation. It examines literature on retirement migration trends and conducts key informant interviews with retirees and PRA-affiliated entities. Findings reveal that while the Philippines' SRRV program is attractive due to lower financial requirements and indefinite stay privileges, it lags behind countries like Thailand and Malaysia in attracting retirees. Issues such as visa processing delays, unclear requirements, and limited post-visa services detract from its appeal. Additionally, retirees are often younger than expected, and most come from high-income backgrounds. To improve, the PRA must address processing delays, enhance after-sales services, and expand the retirement care industry. Collaboration with stakeholders and better information dissemination are essential. The study concludes that a comprehensive industry roadmap is needed to position the Philippines as a leading retirement destination amidst evolving global trends and local challenges. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | retirement migration;competitiveness;retirement visa program;retirement care industry |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-11 |
| By: | Yuchen Lu (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | Due to liberalized immigration policies in recent years, the number of foreign residents in Japan has surged. However, the issue of some foreign residents lacking public health insurance persists. This situation can negatively impact their future utility and may also generate negative externalities for the public health system due to their inability to access timely medical services, thereby leading to broader social and economic uncertainties. Given that the payment method for National Health Insurance essentially makes it a voluntary system, this study is the first to utilize nationwide microdata to investigate the factors that prevent foreign residents from enrolling in National Health Insurance. This study offers several new insights. Specifically, in companies where enrollment in Employees’ Health Insurance is not mandatory, foreign residents working as regular full-time employees are significantly less likely to enroll in National Health Insurance. Additionally, individuals who are job-seeking or unemployed, those engaged in other forms of employment including family workers and trainees, and those who have no concerns about their own health status all exhibit a significantly lower likelihood of enrollment. In the analysis of non-full-time regular employee samples, the economic conditions of the prefecture of residence, and whether the individuals country of nationality has implemented universal health insurance significantly affect enrollment in National Health Insurance. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that, compared to the large number of new cases following the prolonged spread of the pandemic, the initial panic caused by the outbreak may have served as a significant incentive for foreign residents in Japan to enroll in National Health Insurance. |
| Keywords: | Foreign residents, Public health insurance, Health coverage, Pooled cross-sectional data, Probit regression analysis |
| JEL: | I13 J15 F22 |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2024-026 |
| By: | Borjas, George J. (Harvard University); Breznau, Nate (German Institute for Adult Education (DIE)) |
| Abstract: | When studying policy-relevant topics, researchers' policy preferences may shape the design, execution, analysis, and interpretation of results. Detection of such bias is challenging because the research process itself is not normally part of a controlled experimental setting. Our analysis exploits a rare opportunity where 158 researchers working independently in 71 research teams participated in an experiment. After being surveyed about their position on immigration policy, they used the same data to answer the same well-defined empirical question: Does immigration affect the level of public support for social welfare programs? The researchers estimated 1, 253 alternative regression models, producing a frequency distribution of the measured impact ranging from strongly negative to strongly positive. We find that research teams composed of pro-immigration researchers estimated more positive impacts of immigration on public support for social programs, while anti-immigration research teams reported more negative estimates. Moreover, the methods used by teams with strong pro- or anti-immigration priors received lower "referee scores" from their peers in the experiment. These lower-rated models helped produce the different effects estimated by the teams at the tails of the immigration sentiment distribution. The underlying research design decisions are the mechanism through which ideology enters the production function for parameter estimates. |
| Keywords: | impact of immigration, social cohesion, meta analysis |
| JEL: | C90 I38 J69 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17561 |
| By: | David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon Hanson; Maggie R. Jones; Bradley Setzler |
| Abstract: | We analyze the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors like medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery instead stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominately exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions. |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J31 J62 L6 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-78 |
| By: | Patrick A. Imam; Mr. Kangni R Kpodar; Djoulassi K. Oloufade; Vigninou Gammadigbe |
| Abstract: | This paper delves into the intricate relationship between uncertainty and remittance flows. The prevailing focus has been on tangible risk factors like exchange rate volatility and economic downturn, overshadowing the potential impact of uncertainty on remittance dynamics. Leveraging a new dataset of quarterly remittances combined with uncertainty indicators across 77 developing countries from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in remittance-sending countries negatively affects remittance flows. In contrast, uncertainty in remittance receiving-countries has a more complex, dual effect. In countries with high private investment ratios, rising domestic uncertainty leads to a decline in remittances. Conversely, in countries with low public spending on education and health, remittances increase in response to uncertainy, serving as a social safety net. The paper underscores the heterogeneous and non-linear effects of domestic uncertainty on remittance flows. |
| Keywords: | Remittances; Uncertainty; Shocks; remittance flow; remittance dynamics; IRF of remittance; remittances in times; uncertainty indicator; Migration; Private investment; Health care spending; Global |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/244 |