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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Dodini, Samuel (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Lundborg, Petter (Dept. of Economics, Lund University); Løken, Katrine (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Willén, Alexander (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the welfare consequences of reallocating high-skilled labor across borders. A labor demand shock in Norway—driven by a surge in oil prices—substantially increased physician wages and sharply raised the incentive for Swedish doctors to commute across the border. Leveraging linked administrative data and a dose-response difference-in-differences design, we show that this shift doubled commuting rates and significantly reduced Sweden’s domestic physician supply. The result was a persistent rise in mortality, with no corresponding health gains in Norway. These effects were unevenly distributed, disproportionately harming certain places and populations. The underlying mechanism was a severe strain on Sweden’s healthcare system: shortages of young, high-skilled generalists led to more hospitalizations, premature discharges, higher readmission rates, and delayed care. Mortality effects were larger in low-density physician regions and concentrated in older individuals and acute conditions—circulatory, respiratory, and infectious diseases. Our findings show that even temporary, intensive-margin shifts in skilled labor can generate large and unequal welfare losses when public services are already capacity-constrained. |
| Keywords: | Brain Drain; Worker Mobility; Mortality |
| JEL: | H11 J12 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2025_009 |
| By: | Mahony, Michael; Rowe, Francisco (University of Liverpool) |
| Abstract: | The ways in which enclaves affect residents labour market outcomes are not fully understood, with outcomes varying substantially across countries, migrant and ethnic groups. In this study, we examine how co-national and co-ethnic enclaves influence migrants’ and ethnic minorities’ labour market outcomes within England. We account for residential sorting through a computational causal modelling framework. Our analysis reveals three key findings. First, migrants and ethnic minorities with poor human capital were disproportionately found in neighbourhoods with high co-ethnic and co-national concentration. This suggests residential sorting occurs in UK enclaves. Second, co-national enclaves were associated with higher employment probabilities (but not higher incomes) amongst male migrants, and neutral to negative employment probabilities and incomes amongst female migrants. Third, co-ethnic enclaves were generally not associated with higher employment probabilities or income, suggesting UK co-ethnic networks do not help most minority ethnic groups to find work. To our knowledge, this study represents the first evidence of positive co-national employment effects within the UK context. These findings could inform policy by highlighting groups whose employment rates are negatively affected by enclaves. These include female migrants and women of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi ethnicity. |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:834ad_v1 |
| By: | Alex Armand; Frederica Mendonca; Wayne Aaron Sandholtz; Pedro C. Vicente |
| Abstract: | Urbanization is a force for structural change. However, it has been slow in Sub-Saharan Africa, possibly due to conflicting political interests of national incumbents. We study the political impacts of a randomized program integrating rural migrants in a Mozambican city with the participation of local leaders. We find that the program increases the mobilization of local leaders, who conduct more electoral campaigning. We observe migrants to be more politically active and more supportive of the city incumbent (national opposition). Migrants’ contacts at the origin align with the national opposition and migrate to the city. We conclude that urbanization is political.. |
| Keywords: | Political economy, Urbanization, Rural migrants, Migrant integration, Political behavior, Mozambique, Africa |
| JEL: | D72 O18 J61 O12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp670 |
| By: | Yashodhan Ghorpade; Muhammad Saad Imtiaz |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between violent conflict and the willingness of potential migrants to accept lower skilled work (occupational downgrading). The paper develops a theoretical model of migration decisions and tests it using an innovative survey module administered to high-skilled youth in Myanmar. Consistent with the predictions of the model, the findings show that insecurity induced by conflict reduces the additional wage premium that individuals would typically demand for taking on lower skilled work, indicating greater amenability to occupational downgrading. These effects are particularly pronounced for disadvantaged groups, such as women, ethnic minorities, and those with weaker labor market networks or English language skills. The results are driven by respondents from areas under territorial contestation, and those interviewed after the sudden activation of a conscription law during the survey. This further confirms how security considerations may override the preference for skill-appropriate job matching, suggesting that conflict may worsen labor market outcomes and reduce potential gains from migration, especially for disadvantaged groups. |
| Date: | 2025–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11075 |
| By: | Tesseltje de Lange; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This policy brief draws on the findings of Tverdostup et al. (2025) to examine Austrian firms’ responses to labour shortages through automation and migration. Like many European nations, Austria has been grappling with labour shortages over the past decade. These shortages have been influenced by demographic shifts, economic cycles and evolving industry demands. Understanding these trends is crucial for formulating effective policy responses, particularly in the realms of migration, education and automation, three policy domains central to our Horizon Europe project formulating a Global Strategy for Skills, Migration and Development (GS4S). The referenced empirical evidence indicates that automation largely complements human labour, notably benefiting low-educated migrants who are not from the European Economic Area (EEA), but posing challenges for highly educated migrant workers. Policy recommendations include improving EU migration policies, streamlining the recognition of qualifications, developing targeted training initiatives, and incentivising responsible automation practices to foster inclusive labour market growth and resilience. |
| Keywords: | automation, labour migration, skills, labour shortages, substitution, EU |
| JEL: | F22 O15 K37 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:95 |
| By: | C. LE THI (INSEE, OECD); K. MILLOCK (PARIS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS, CNRS); J. SIXOU (INSEE) |
| Abstract: | The evidence on whether people adapt to climate extreme events by moving out of vulnerable areas is currently mixed. In this article, we analyse residential mobility following floods using comprehensive French data. Our identification strategy consists in comparing individuals living in areas exposed to flood risk which were actually subject to a flood, with individuals also residing in flood risk areas but which were not subject to flood. Our results suggest that residential mobility increases by 1 percentage point in the two years following a flood. Compared to the baseline inter-municipality mobility rate in our sample, it equates to a 30% increase in the probability of moving out of the municipality of residence following a flood. The effects are strongly heterogeneous. Mobility rates following a flood are observed to be lower for the bottom and the top quintiles of equivalised disposable income than for the middle quintiles. The effects are found to be more pronounced for private renters than for home-owners and others. An analysis of aggregate flows at the municipality level reveals no effect of flooding on residential mobility on average, confirming the importance of using granular individual data. However, the data do suggest changes in the composition of population outflows. We observe a lower share of homeowners in the population outflows from municipalities that have flooded. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Flood, Mobility, Natural Disasters, Residential location choice |
| JEL: | Q54 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nse:doctra:2025-06 |
| By: | Dodini, Samuel (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Willén, Alexander (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between labor market power and employer discrimination, providing new causal evidence on when and where discriminatory outcomes arise. We leverage job displacements from mass layoffs and firm closures as a source of exogenous job search and combine this with an exact matching approach. We compare native–immigrant worker pairs who held the same job at the same firm, in the same occupation, industry, location, and wage prior to displacement. By tracking post-displacement outcomes across labor markets with differing levels of employer concentration, we identify the causal effect of labor market power on discriminatory behavior. We document four main findings. First, wage and employment discrimination against immigrants is substantial. Second, discrimination is amplified in concentrated labor markets and largely absent in highly competitive ones. Third, product market power has no independent effect, consistent with the idea that wage-setting power is necessary for discriminatory outcomes. Fourth, observed gaps fade with sustained employer–immigrant interactions, consistent with belief-based discrimination and employer learning. Together, these findings show that discrimination is not fixed, but shaped by market structure and firm-level dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination; Immigration; Market Power |
| JEL: | J17 J42 J61 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2025_010 |
| By: | Bin Ramli, Muhammad Sukri |
| Abstract: | Malaysia has become a major refugee-hosting country in ASEAN, facing considerable strain as it shoulders a disproportionate burden of refugee protection despite the absence of a formal legal framework for refugee status. This paper examines the mounting challenges Malaysia faces at the intersection of increasing climate-induced displacement and the vulnerabilities of these populations. Malaysia is also struggling with severe climate change impacts, such as flooding, while managing growing refugee populations. Recurrent climate threats, notably severe monsoon flooding which disproportionately impacts refugees and asylum seekers residing in flood-prone, affordable areas, exacerbate these vulnerabilities. This research investigates the interplay between humanitarian protection and climate vulnerability, highlighting the precarious livelihoods and housing conditions of displaced individuals in Malaysia, and how the absence of legal recognition compounds their susceptibility to climate extremes, creating a dual crisis. Analyzing the dynamic relationship between climate threats, refugee vulnerability, and the resultant strain on Malaysia, this study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive climate action and a collective response within ASEAN to mitigate these challenges. Furthermore, it includes a comparative analysis of Malaysia’s challenges with other ASEAN countries. By examining the causal links between these factors and analyzing Malaysia's current situation, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the necessity for robust regional and national frameworks. These frameworks must not only address the immediate needs of displaced populations but also prioritize long-term climate resilience and sustainable development strategies across the ASEAN region. |
| Date: | 2025–03–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zra4x_v1 |