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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Bertoli, Simone; Mckenzie, David J.; Murard, Elie |
| Abstract: | Migration changes how families form and dissolve, and how one should conceptualize the family. This has implications for thinking about how the migration decision is modelled when individuals are unable to picture the counterfactual families they may have. Differences in marital status can induce two otherwise identical individuals to make different migration decisions. It also has implications for attempts to causally estimate impacts of migration, when the family composition changes with the migration decision itself. This paper shows empirically that changing marital status after migration is widespread, and that the traditional model of a fixed family sending off a migrant who remains part of that same family only describes a minority of migrants moving from developing countries to the U.S. The authors draw out lessons from thinking about counterfactual families for empirical research and for migration policy. |
| Date: | 2023–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10626 |
| By: | Cortina Toro, Magdalena; Jimenez, Juan Miguel; Rozo Villarraga, Sandra Viviana |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the main findings from 113 studies produced between 1990 and 2023, focusing on the impact of migration on various child groups affected through the migration path, including left-behind, migrant (voluntary and forced), and native children. The findings reveal that migration influences children’s outcomes in complex and context-dependent ways, and it interacts dramatically with household demographics and public policies. Key results include the following: (i) left-behind children benefit fr om remittances but experience dramatic declines in their cognitive and non-cognitive development due to parental absence; (ii) immigrant children generally fare better than those in their origin countries but still underperform compared to native children in host countries; and (iii) the impacts of migration on native children largely depend on the adjustment of public service supply to meet increased demand. In cases where education services expand to meet rising demand, the effect on native children can be minimal or even positive. This paper emphasizes the need for more experimental or quasi-experimental research to examine the effectiveness of programs that support migrant and minor host children, and it calls for longitudinal data collection to better understand the challenges and needs of migrant children, particularly in developing countries. |
| Date: | 2024–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10686 |
| By: | Bossavie, Laurent Loic Yves; Rozo Villarraga, Sandra Viviana; Urbina Florez, Maria Jose |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of exposure to extremist ideologies in the home country on the subsequent integration of refugees in host countries. For this purpose, it combines a rich census of Afghan refugees living in Tajikistan in 2023, following the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan, with uniquely scraped district-yearly data on the territories controlled by the Taliban, U.S. allies, and contested territories between the two factions between 2017 and 2021. The empirical strategy compares the integration outcomes of refugees who experienced varying exposure to extremism generated by the exogenous and sudden dramatic shift in Taliban’s territorial control in their province of birth between 2017 and 2021. Findings suggest that refugees who were born in provinces with increased Taliban territorial control between 2017 and 2021, despite having comparable pre-migration characteristics to refugees born elsewhere in Afghanistan, are less integrated into their Tajik host communities than the other refugees. These refugees also show lower educational levels and more mental health problems. |
| Date: | 2023–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10612 |
| By: | Di Maio, Michele; Elmallakh, Nelly Youssef Louis William; Leone Sciabolazza, Valerio |
| Abstract: | Changes in the sentiment of migration-related news published in destination countries affect the timing of migrants’ journeys to these countries. Using geo-localized data on migrants in Libya and the complete record of news articles in their country of destination, this paper shows that a worsening news sentiment leads to migrants staying longer in Libya, slowing down their journeys to their final destinations. The paper validates these results by showing that the effect is concentrated in locations with internet connections. The results indicate that changes in news sentiment have a significant impact only for some groups of migrants and under specific conditions, suggesting a limited effect on overall migrant movements. Finally, the paper provides suggestive evidence that a worsening news sentiment in the preferred destination induces substitution across destination countries, yet it does not make migrants return to their country of origin. |
| Date: | 2024–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10754 |
| By: | Vargas, Juan F.; Rozo Villarraga, Sandra Viviana |
| Abstract: | About a third of the 7.7 million Venezuelans who have left their country due to political and economic turmoil have settled in neighboring Colombia. The extent to which the Colombian schooling system can absorb the massive demand for education of Venezuelan children is key for their future trajectory of human capital accumulation, as well as that of Colombian students in receiving communities. This paper estimates the effect of Venezuelan migration on educational outcomes of children living in settlement municipalities in Colombia, distinguish between the effect of the migration shock on native and migrant students. Specifically, it estimates the effect of the migration shock on school enrollment, dropout/promotion rates and standardized test scores. The identification relies on a plausibly exogenous measure of the predicted migration shock faced by each Colombian municipality every year. The findings show that the migration shock increased the enrollment of Venezuelan students in both public and private schools and in all school grades, but also generated negative spillovers related to failing promotion rates and increasing dropout. This paper documents that these negative effects are explained by the differential enrollment capacity of schools, as well as by the deterioration of key school inputs. |
| Date: | 2024–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10720 |
| By: | Giles, John T.; Mu, Ren |
| Abstract: | Rural-to-urban migration in China has transformed the lives of millions of rural residents. This paper reviews empirical evidence on the impacts of migration on the welfare of individuals and households in rural communities. After first discussing the evolution of institutions that have shaped individual and household migration decisions, it next reviews data issues that arise when studying migration in China, docum ents long-term migration trends, and presents evidence on the impacts of migration on household earnings, consumption, and risk of falling into poverty within rural communities. The paper next reviews new research raising concerns associated with the impacts of migration on those left behind in rural villages, including school-age and younger children, women, and the elderly. For comparative purposes, relevant evidence and approaches used are drawn from analytical research from the international literature on the impacts of migration experience. The paper also highlights open questions, with suggestions for future research and a discussion of policy priorities. |
| Date: | 2024–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10784 |
| By: | Coulibaly, Mohamed; Hoogeveen, Johannes G.; Jourdan, Emilie Sandrine Celine; Aboudrahyme Savadogo |
| Abstract: | The Global Compact on Refugees recognizes the importance of responsibility sharing for hosting, protecting, and assisting refugees, while emphasizing the potential of economic participation to reduce the cost of humanitarian assistance. This note explores the relative importance of aid in caring for refugees hosted in Chad and the importance of the incomes earned by the refugees. It finds that the combination of aid and self-earned incomes falls far short of a minimum standard of living (the poverty line) as a consequence of which the vast majority of refugees lives in abject poverty. It is also finds that although refugees are hosted in camps with relatively few economic opportunities, self-generated income covers 54 percent of the poverty line and aid only 14 percent. As Chad has adopted a policy of refugee inclusion and dispersion, the note then explores how much these progressive policies might increase the income earning potential of refugees. This is found to be substantial. Economic participation policies are estimated to reduce refugee poverty from 88 to 50 percent (thus increasing the self-sufficiency of refugees dramatically), while increasing the incomes generated by poor refugees by more than 50 percent. The greatest participation benefits will be realized when refugees move to areas with more economic potential. |
| Date: | 2024–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10727 |
| By: | de Julian, Mikel |
| Abstract: | In the 1940s, almost 1.5 million african americans moved from the South to the North of the United States. Previous literature on the Great Migration has mostly focused on migrant outcomes and local effects in the North. This paper studies the impact of the Great Migration for those who stayed in the South. It employs linked, full-count census data for 1940 and 1950 as well as World War Two veteran records. Leveraging preexisting migrant networks and variation in war mobilization rates in the North, it identifies exogenous variation in out-migration from the South. It finds that a 10 percentage point increase in out-migration – the average rate in the 1940s – is associated with a 0.63 percentage point increase in a county’s income growth and a 0.72 years increase in its population’s educational attainment. Potential mechanisms include reductions in unemployment and farm mechanization. Taken together, these effects suggest the Great Migration led to economic convergence between the South and the North of the United States. |
| Date: | 2025–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5gw9p_v1 |
| By: | Wahby, Sarah Mohammad Osman; Assaad, Ragui A |
| Abstract: | Refugees face important barriers to participation in the formal market, which locks them in informal employment and makes them more vulnerable to shocks. Using data from Jordan, this paper compares the job finding and separation rates of Syrian refugees to those of their hosts before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings show the change in these rates over time for Syrians to be similar to those of their Jordanian hosts prior to the pandemic, with a significant divergence after the start of the pandemic. Distinguishing between Syrians living in camps and those living in host communities shows that the Syrian disadvantage was entirely explained by living in camps. |
| Date: | 2024–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10670 |
| By: | Alrababah, Ala; Beerli, Andreas Jürg; Hangartner, Dominik; Ward, Dalston |
| Abstract: | The main theories explaining electoral backlash against immigration focus on citizens' cultural, economic, and security concerns. We test these predictions in Switzerland, which opened its labor market to neighboring countries in the 2000s. Employing a difference-in-differences design, we document a substantial rise in immigrant workers in Swiss border municipalities after the border opened. This was accompanied by a 6-percentage-point (95% confidence interval: 2--10) increase in support for anti-immigrant parties, equivalent to a 32% rise at the mean. However, we find no adverse effects on citizens' employment, wages, or subjective perceptions of economic, cultural, or security threats. Instead, we describe how far-right parties introduced novel narratives related to overcrowding to advance hostility toward immigrants. We provide evidence that this rhetoric targeted border municipalities, where it had the greatest impact on voters susceptible to political persuasion. Together, these findings suggest that elites can play a role in driving anti-immigrant votes. |
| Date: | 2024–01–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hgczq_v1 |
| By: | Masaki, Takaaki; Madson, B. |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to understand the existing gaps in micro-level data on forcibly displaced people—refugees and internally displaced persons. The paper undertakes a comprehensive review of all existing micro-level data sets in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Microdata Library and the World Bank Microdata Library. It first identifies a corpus of micro-level data sets that are designed to have a representative sample of refugees and/or internally displaced persons and assesses gaps in geographical and thematic coverage. The paper then evaluates whether the data sets contain a core set of questions that are essential for the proper identification of refugees and internally displaced persons. The findings show that microdata on forcibly displaced people are comparatively rich in Sub-Saharan Africa in contrast to other regions. However, data scarcity is notably pronounced in countries facing fragility and conflict. Scarcity is also evident among internally displaced persons and on topics such as labor and employment, finance (for instance, credit, debt, and banking), agriculture/livestock/fishery, and education. The paper also highlights that many of the existing micro-level data sets on forcibly displaced people do not contain the core set of questions needed for proper identification of refugees or internally displaced persons according to international statistical standards. |
| Date: | 2023–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10631 |
| By: | Pavel, Md Eyasin Ul Islam Ul Islam |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the dimensions of immigration integration and engagement within the United States, utilizing a dataset provided by the International City/County Management Association (ICMA). The study's objective was to identify and understand the factors that significantly affect the incorporation of immigrant populations into the social and political life of American communities. Through meticulous preprocessing and rigorous validation processes, including factor analysis and comparative studies, we analyzed variables such as the size of the immigrant population, forms of local government, regional influences, and service provisions. The results highlighted the size of the immigrant population as a pivotal factor, with larger communities exhibiting more pronounced integration and engagement. The form of government and regional characteristics also emerged as influential, affecting policy-making and access to resources, which are instrumental in shaping the immigrant experience. Notably, services provided by educational institutions were found to be critical in supporting immigrant integration. |
| Date: | 2023–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wyz96_v1 |
| By: | Atamanov, Aziz; Hoogeveen, Johannes G.; Reese, Benjamin Christopher |
| Abstract: | When host countries allow refugees to earn income, two main groups benefit: refugees, who become financially autonomous, and international institutions that can reduce the humanitarian aid that would otherwise be needed to support refugees. Uganda is one of the more progressive countries when it comes to promoting the financial independence of refugees and shifting from humanitarian aid to development ways of working. This note considers how successful refugees in Uganda have been in becoming financially independent and estimates how assistance has been saved due to these efforts at economic inclusion. Using the international poverty line of US$2.15 in 2017 purchasing power parities to proxy the costs of basic needs, the results suggest that the amount of total aid needed was reduced by almost 45 percent. They also show that many refugees live in poverty, implying that the present combination of aid and work is inadequate to assure a decent standard of living. While more assistance is needed in the short run, reductions in development assistance are feasible but require upfront investments in refugee earning capacity to realize them. |
| Date: | 2024–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10679 |
| By: | Dahmani Scuitti, Anais; Knippenberg, Erwin Willem Yvonnick Leon; Kosmidou-Bradley, Walker Turnbull; Belanger, Johanna Lee |
| Abstract: | Given increasing levels of displacement due to conflict and climate change, it is important to establish robust monitoring systems. This paper explores how remote sensing data, particularly geospatial data, can be leveraged to monitor displacement flows. It draws lessons from northeastern Afghanistan, namely the 2018 drought, which is considered one of the worst in decades. The analysis identifies displacement patterns by combining displacement data from the International Organization for Migration Displacement Tracking Matrix with nighttime lights. The results suggest that the cumulated displacement movements from 2018 to 2020 can be proxied by trends in nighttime light imagery. Settlements with higher net inflows of displaced persons between 2018 and 2020 have comparatively larger nighttime light growth. Allowing for nonlinearity suggests decreasing marginal returns of displacement on nighttime lights, as settlements showing the largest expansion of nighttime lights are those with the lowest displacement inflows. The model uses data on nighttime lights to predict whether a settlement was a net receiver of displacement flows during 2018–20 and correctly classifies 63.2 percent of the settlements as net inflow or net outflow. This study provides a proof of concept to test whether population displacements can be proxied using geospatial data trained on administrative records in a data-scarce environment, where real-time insights can inform humanitarian assistance. This work was done before the political crisis of August 2021. |
| Date: | 2023–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10583 |
| By: | Carletto, Calogero; Letta, Marco; Montalbano, Pierluigi; Paolantonio, Adriana; Zezza, Alberto |
| Abstract: | Reliable microeconomic data to understand the climate-migration nexus are virtually nonexistent. Nationally representative multitopic household surveys are rarely, if ever, explicitly designed for studying migration issues. Despite this limitation, most countries have no alternatives to the use of household surveys when it comes to analyzing complex multidimensional phenomena such as the interrelationship between climate change and migration. This paper offers a critical reflection on current challenges faced by multi-topic household surveys in responding to this need, but also, more importantly, on the many opportunities embedded in their use. Specifically, using the Living Standards Measurement Study as a case study, a conceptual framework, practical empirical guidance, and a methodological agenda are proposed to address data gaps and contribute to a more solid understanding of the climate-migration nexus. |
| Date: | 2023–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10613 |
| By: | Hiller, Tatiana; Moya, Andrés; Rozo Villarraga, Sandra Viviana |
| Abstract: | By 2023, more than 108 million people were forcibly displaced worldwide, with children under 18 constituting 45 percent. This study examines the human development gaps between forcibly displaced migrant and host children and adolescents, focusing on cognitive and socioemotional skills and physical and mental health. The study also explores how access to services and regularization programs are correlated with these disparities using a unique and comprehensive longitudinal data set of around 2, 500 Venezuelan migrant and Colombian host children and adolescents, ages 5 to 17 and living in Medellín, Colombia. The findings reveal significant developmental delays among migrant children in physical and cognitive development, but interestingly, no significant differences in socioemotional and mental health outcomes. The research underscores how the availability of public services and engagement in regularization programs are crucial for mitigating these developmental gaps. |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10765 |
| By: | Lain, Jonathan William; Yama, Gervais Chamberlin; Hoogeveen, Johannes G. |
| Abstract: | Global poverty is increasingly becoming concentrated in conflict-affected settings. Therefore, assessing the welfare of those people displaced by conflict is of growing policy importance. Collecting and analyzing data on displaced people is challenging because sampling them is difficult, standard welfare metrics may not reflect their experiences, and they are highly heterogeneous. Assessing the welfare effects of displacement also hinges on constructing counterfactuals that show how internally displaced persons would have fared had they stayed in place. Displaced people typically come from a nonrandom subset of communities affected by conflict or other shocks, so comparing them with the rest of the population may be misleading. This paper addresses this issue using data from the Central African Republic, which recorded detailed information on displacement histories to isolate the communities from which those living in internally displaced person camps originated. Using these “catchment areas” for internally displaced person camps as a counterfactual suggests that although displaced households have lower monetary consumption and higher monetary poverty than the overall population, they may be no worse off on many key metrics than those left behind in the communities originally affected by conflict. Moreover, those left behind enjoy none of the benefits of being in camps, such as additional access to water and sanitation services. These results underline the importance of tailoring policies and data collection to consider those in communities originally affected by conflict, just as practitioners are doing for displaced populations. |
| Date: | 2024–03–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10725 |
| By: | Hopper, Robert Benjamin |
| Abstract: | This paper, along with its accompanying data, provides the first comprehensive analysis on financing for refugee education in low- and middle-income countries. By compiling and scrutinizing data on host government financing, foreign aid contributions, and philanthropic giving, a consolidated and quantified overview of all major sources of financing for refugee education in low- and middle-income countries is produced. This data is then analyzed to reveal key trends and patterns in refugee education financing, existing financing gaps, and potential biases in financing allocations. These findings are explored in the 10 facts and findings outlined in this paper, and summarized in Box 1 below. It is hoped that this dataset and analysis will help to improve the understanding of financing for refugee education in low- and middle-income countries and inform future discussion and debate on refugee education financing. |
| Date: | 2024–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10752 |
| By: | Himelein, Kristen; Pape, Utz Johann; Wild, Michael |
| Abstract: | The most common sampling approach for cross-sectional household surveys in the developing world is a stratified two-stage design, where the first stage is usually a sample from a census-based area frame, and the second stage is a random sample of households from each of the areas selected in the first stage. To overcome the problem of outdated census frame information, it is common to conduct a household listing operation within these areas. However, these listing operations come with severe implications for survey costs, timeframe, as well as quality. To avoid such second-stage operations, some surveys choose alternate approaches for their second-stage operation. This paper compares five of these approaches, namely, satellite mapping, segmentation, grid square, the north method, and random walk, through simulations based on a census conducted in a refugee camp in South Sudan. The paper compares the simulated approach with the estimates derived from the actual experiment and finds that all the resulting estimates are biased. Nevertheless, in addition to their practical challenges, the satellite mapping, segmentation, and grid square approaches exhibit the smallest bias. Although random walk shows the worst performance in the simulations, it regains ground in its implementation, especially vis-à-vis the north method, where implementation adds most significantly to its bias. In conclusion, most probability-based methods perform better than non-probability methods like random walk and are therefore preferrable when no traditional household listing can take place. Although it is important to consider the theoretical properties of sampling approaches, implementation is at least as important. Training, implementation modalities, and monitoring of compliance are key factors in the overall performance. |
| Date: | 2024–01–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10675 |