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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Arsenii Shcherbov |
| Abstract: | Recent years have spurred significant migration movements, underscoring the need to understand their impacts. This study explores a widely-debated correlation between crime and migration. Specifically, I investigate the 2014 migration wave, studying the response of Russian crime rates to the influx of immigrants from Ukraine. I approximate local crime rates using court data on sentencing decisions and describe relevant migration flows with internet search activity. The application of the difference-in-differences method reveals positive effects for property crime sentencing and the heterogeneous response of violent crime sentencing. The findings of this study are policyrelevant and could prove beneficial in understanding and mitigating the effects of future migration waves. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Migration |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp782&r= |
| By: | Kaz Miyagiwa (Department of Economics, Florida International University); Yunyun Wan (Department of Humanities and Regional Studies, Akita University, Akita, Japan) |
| Abstract: | A search-theoretic model of illegal immigration is presented to examine the effect of deportation and other policy measures on unemployment, crimes and immigration flows. It is found that deporting immigrants who commit crimes lowers the unemployment rate and causes an increase in native labor force. However, if hiring immigrants is more profitable than hiring natives, deportation increases the immigrant population and the number of crimes they commit. Anti-crime policy and higher minimum wages generate similar effects. |
| Keywords: | illegal immigration, deportation, unemployment, crimes, minimum wages |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2408&r= |
| By: | Helen Dempster (Center for Global Development); Martha Guerrero Ble (Refugees International); Stéphanie López Villamil (Independent consultant) |
| Abstract: | Economic migrants and refugees can bring both benefits and costs to their hosting countries. If well-integrated, they can support themselves, their families, and their hosting countries as producers and consumers. Both economic migration and forced displacement are therefore integrally linked with development outcomes. Recognizing this, multilateral development banks (MDBs) are supporting their beneficiary member countries to improve outcomes for economic migrants and refugees, in the form of billions of dollars in grants and loans, as well as technical assistance, policy dialogues, and knowledge exchanges. This paper provides an introductory snapshot of some of the financing instruments, projects, and strategies used; particularly innovative approaches; and challenges MDBs face in expanding their engagement. It is hoped this paper will be useful to anyone who engages with MDBs and wants to understand how they engage on economic migration and forced displacement, particularly as these issues continue to grow in importance. |
| Date: | 2024–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:328&r= |
| By: | Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Over the past few decades, immigration has become the primary factor contributing to population growth in the European Union (EU) due to rapid population ageing and declining fertility rates. However, the traditional migration source countries – namely, the EU countries in Central and East Europe (EU-CEE) and the EU neighbourhood countries – have limited potential to supply much-needed labour to Western Europe due to own their grim population prospects. Immigration from non-EU, non-European Free Trade Association (EFTA) or non-EU candidate countries as of 2015 (i.e. Georgia, Moldova, Turkey and Ukraine) appears to be the only factor that can prevent population decline in the long run, as third-country nationals are, on average, younger than natives or immigrants from the EU neighbourhood. However, current evidence suggests that higher immigration has only a limited capacity to stabilise population decline and offset labour shortages in the EU countries most affected by negative demographic trends, as they receive fewer immigrants relative to other EU countries. Moreover, the labour market integration of immigrants from non-traditional source countries, including Middle Eastern and African countries, has proved challenging for both legal and infrastructural reasons. This has resulted in an immense pool of untapped talent and skills, which will require the appropriate policy steps to be fully identified and effectively employed in the labour market. These policies, like the ones proposed in this report, will become increasingly important as the EU moves steadily towards new immigration source regions. |
| Keywords: | demographic trends, labour shortages, migration, refugees, integration policies |
| JEL: | J11 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:78&r= |
| By: | Adar, Sinem; Aydın, Yaşar; Günay, Cengiz; Seufert, Günter |
| Abstract: | The AKP leadership's diaspora policy has created tensions between Turkey and European countries. Turkey's gradual slide into authoritarianism, Islam's steady expansion into public life and the increasing divergence between the foreign and security policies of Turkey and the EU have deepened the mistrust in relations between that country and the Union. Concerns abound about Ankara's "long-arm" influence and the loyalties of Turkish migrants and their foreign-born children to their countries of residence. Meanwhile, the mainstreaming of anti-migration and anti-Islam sentiments in European countries has led to a conflation between Ankara's ambitions and the diaspora's attitudes and demands in the public discourse. While it is crucial not to overstate the AKP's ability to mobilise the diaspora, the genuine grievances of individuals with a migration background should be taken seriously. At the same time, European governments should continue to advocate the greater independence of mosque communities from Turkey's influence in order to maintain a balanced diaspora landscape. |
| Keywords: | Diaspora policy, Justice and Development Party, AKP, Turkish migrants, Kılıçdaroğlu, Diyanet, DITIB, assimilation, new subjectivity, islamophobia, Gülenist network |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:297228&r= |
| By: | Johnstone Kotut (International Rescue Committee); Anneleen Vos (International Rescue Committee); Helen Dempster (Center for Global Development); Harrison Tang (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The majority of refugees worldwide live in urban areas. It is often assumed that these urban-based refugees are self-reliant, and therefore no longer require external support. This paper challenges this assumption by reviewing secondary literature on the experience of 136, 887 refugees who live in Kampala, Uganda and the 96, 348 refugees who live in Nairobi, Kenya. It identifies three distinct challenges that these urban-based refugees face compared to their camp- and settlement-based peers: access to essential services without recognised documentation, access to decent housing, and access to social and professional networks. It then reviews whether and how the largest bilateral and multilateral donors in Uganda and Kenya support urban-based refugees, and concludes by offering recommendations for those donors interested in expanding their support. While this paper and its recommendations have specific relevance for those urban-based refugees in Kampala and Nairobi, they have broader relevance to urban refugee populations in all low- and middle-income countries. |
| Date: | 2024–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:323&r= |
| By: | Helen Dempster (Center for Global Development); Sam Huckstep (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The green transition is widely expected to lead to high levels of net job creation, with roles distributed across the pay and skill spectrum. To fill these roles, many countries of destination will need to use migration alongside their domestic labour supply. Yet few countries of origin have enough skilled workers to meet their own green transition targets. As a result, any green-skilled migration facilitated by countries of destination should be linked with investments in the training, recruitment, and retention of workers into ‘green’ jobs within countries of origin. This paper explores three models that link training and migration in a partnership framework—fixed-term migration; Global Skill Partnerships; and migration with parallel investments—to maximise both economic development and carbon reduction benefits. For each model, the paper outlines key considerations that should be taken into account along with a worked example. It also includes a "guide, " walking policymakers through the different models to understand which would best meet the needs of countries of origin, countries of destination, and employers. |
| Date: | 2024–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:330&r= |
| By: | van Elk, Roel (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Jongen, Egbert L. W. (Leiden University); Koot, Patrick (Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment); Zulkarnain, Alice (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | A key measure of equality of opportunity is intergenerational mobility. Of particular interest is the extent to which children of immigrants catch up with natives. Using administrative data for the Netherlands, we find large gaps in the absolute income mobility of immigrants relative to natives (-23%), suggestive of large, persistent income gaps for future generations as well. Important drivers are differences in household composition and in personal incomes. However, we also uncover substantial heterogeneity by country of origin. Children of immigrants from China actually have higher incomes than natives, which is closely related to their educational outcomes. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, immigrants, Netherlands |
| JEL: | D31 J15 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17035&r= |
| By: | Ortega, Francesc (Queens College, CUNY); Connor, Phillip (Queens College, CUNY) |
| Abstract: | We present a novel imputation for legal immigrant status in 2023, which identifies likely DACA recipients, and provide estimates of the short-term and long-term income losses stemming from the potential elimination of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. Our estimates account for the youth of DACA recipients, which implies that their current earnings underestimate their potential lifetime contribution to the U.S. economy due to incomplete educational attainment and the early stage of their professional careers. We estimate that losing work authorization would lower the income of the average DACA recipient by about $5, 300 annually, adding up to $2.9 billion for the approximately 530, 000 current recipients. Cumulatively over their remaining working lives, the income loss grows to approximately $70, 000 per recipient and $38 billion in the aggregate. If the elimination of the program leads to deportation and a complete exit from the U.S. labor market, per-person income losses increase six-fold to $32, 000 annually, $430, 000 over the lifetime, and $233 billion in aggregate. The losses become substantially larger if the program's rescission also affects the earnings of spouses and other Dreamers (undocumented immigrants who entered the country as children). |
| Keywords: | migration, undocumented, DACA, legalization |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J08 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17066&r= |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Karel Mertens; Hannah Rubinton |
| Abstract: | An analysis of work patterns suggests that the rise in interstate migration since 2020 has largely been the result of an increased share of people working from home. |
| Keywords: | interstate migration; work from home; remote work |
| Date: | 2024–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98403&r= |
| By: | Zareei, Afsaneh (Stockholm University); Falahi, Mohammad Ali (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Wadensjö, Eskil (Stockholm University); Sadati, Saeed Malek (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad) |
| Abstract: | Sanctions have severe adverse effects on societies. Even though sanctions are used against governments, the population is punished for its government's behavior. Sanctions can create problems due to international migration. Iran is an unique case study because it faced the most and hardest sanctions in the world until February 2022. Many negative effects on the economy have been observed such as losing the Rial's value against the US Dollar by 80 percent, increasing poverty, and reducing exports and imports. At the same time, Iran had a very fast growth of emigration with an increase of 141 percent. Sanctions have been imposed on Iran's economy in different ways, but so far, it has not been determined how each type of sanctions will affect emigration. The aim of this study is to study the relationship between different kinds of economic sanctions and labor emigration using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Different types of sanctions as oil and nonoil exports and three different import sanctions on consumer, capital, and intermediate goods are considered. The results show that sanctions on nonoil exports are most influencing emigration. Sanctions on the imports of intermediate and consumer goods, as well as sanctions on oil exports, are in the next steps, but not as much as the non-oil exports. It can be noticed that out of approximately 24 million people working in Iran, up to 4 percent of the working force have a desire to leave the country as migrant workers due to the sanctions. |
| Keywords: | international sanctions, labor emigration, DSGE Models, Iran |
| JEL: | B22 C02 C11 C68 F22 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17062&r= |