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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Sushant Acharya; Ozge Akinci; Silvia Miranda-Agrippino; Paolo Pesenti |
| Abstract: | As covered in the first post in this series, the international transmission of monetary policy shocks features positive output spillovers when the so-called expenditure-switching effect is sufficiently large. Departing from textbook analysis, this post zooms in on the implications of differences across market participants with respect to their consumption preferences and ability to insure against income risk. The key message is that these features can, at least theoretically, change the impact of spillovers from positive to negative as well as alter their overall magnitude. These aspects of the international transmission mechanism are especially relevant when addressing spillovers from advanced to emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | Global spillovers |
| JEL: | E32 E44 F41 |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:99794 |
| By: | Moritz Kuhn; Iourii Manovskii; Xincheng Qiu |
| Abstract: | Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities across these countries in the spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, and job filling, finding, and separation rates. The novel facts on the geography of vacancies and job filling are instrumental in guiding and disciplining the development of a theory of local labor market performance. We find that a spatial version of a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous separations and on-the-job search quantitatively accounts for all the documented empirical regularities. The model also quanitatively rationalizes why differences in job-separation rates have primary importance in inducing differences in unemployment across space while changes in the job-finding rate are the main driver in unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Local Labor Markets, Unemployment, Vacancies, Search and Matching |
| JEL: | J63 J64 E24 E32 R13 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_609 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Gender-Gender and Law Social Development-Social Conflict and Violence Gender-Gender and Health Social Development-Social Inclusion & Institutions Poverty Reduction-Inequality |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40185 |
| By: | Natsuki Arai; Shian Chang |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers' economic projections with identities published after 2007 and presents three sets of results. First, the dispersion of projections across policymakers is associated with the regional economic conditions they represent and their monetary policy preferences. Second, the policymakers' reaction function is consistent with the Taylor rule and satisfies the Taylor principle for stability. Their projections align with Okun's law and the Phillips curve. Finally, the efficiency evaluations to test the unpredictability of forecast errors and revisions indicate that the efficiency is rejected by many policymakers, with rejections concentrated in the years following the Great Recession. |
| Keywords: | FOMC, Individual Projections, Regional Influence, Policy Preference, Forecast Efficiency |
| JEL: | C53 E43 E47 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2025-003 |
| By: | Moritz Piatti-Fünfkirchen; Ali Winoto Subandoro; Timothy Williamson; Kyoko Shibata Okamura |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population-Nutrition Health, Nutrition and Population-Health Economics & Finance |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39856 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment-Adaptation to Climate Change Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40052 |
| By: | Thünen Institute Forest Sector Modelling (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | This working paper details the underlying structure of the Timber market Model for policy-Based Analysis - TiMBA - as well as the data and parameters used for modeling. TiMBA is a partial economic equilibrium model for the global forest sector. The market equilibrium is subject to market clearance and constraints, balancing raw materials, product manufacturing, and consumption while limiting international trade (Paul A. Samuelson 1952). The model structure distinguishes three types of roundwood (fuelwood, coniferous and non-coniferous industrial roundwood), two additional raw products for paper production (other fiber pulp and waste paper), two intermediate products (mechanical and chemical wood pulp) and eight finished products (coniferous and non-coniferous sawnwood, veneer sheets and plywood, particle board, fibreboard, newsprint, printing and writing paper, and other paper and paperboard). Except for sawnwood, intermediate and end products are produced from a mix of coniferous and non-coniferous industrial roundwood... |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:jhimwp:355886 |
| By: | Daouia, Abdelaati; Stupfler, Gilles |
| Abstract: | The use of quantiles forms the basis of the overwhelming majority of current risk management procedures. Yet, there exist alternative instruments of risk protection that are not (unlike quantiles) based solely on the frequency of tail observations and instead take their severity into account, while adhering to axiomatic requirements. These alternative risk measures have seen increasing interest in the past decade. The current state of development of risk measures beyond quantiles is discussed with a particular focus on three prominent classes: (i) Expected Shortfall (ES) and extremiles, part of the class of spectral and distortion risk measures, (ii) expectiles, which constitute a particular case of generalized M-quantiles, and (iii) systemic risk measures including Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES). A structured overview of their strengths and weaknesses with respect to axiomatic theory, estimation properties, and ease-of-use by risk practitioners will be given. In addition, challenges arising in the asymptotics and mathematical developments will be discussed and the use of each of the ES, extremile, expectile and MES risk measures will be illustrated with real data applications to storm losses in China, tornado losses in the United States, and financial returns series. |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130486 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population-Health Systems Development & Reform Information and Communication Technologies-ICT Applications Information and Communication Technologies-ICT Policy and Strategies |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40284 |
| By: | Georgarakos, Dimitris; Kenny, Geoff; Laeven, Luc; Meyer, Justus |
| Abstract: | We field a series of experiments in a population-representative survey of European consumers to examine their attitudes towards the possible introduction of a digital euro. First, we show that a short video explaining the key features of the digital euro is effective in changing consumers’ beliefs about such a new form of payment and increases the likelihood of adoption by 12pp relative to a control group that is not shown the video. Second, we find that on aggregate consumers would allocate a relatively small fraction from a positive wealth shock to digital euros and their allocation to other liquid assets would be little affected. Third, holding limits in the range of €1, 000 to €10, 000 have insignificant differential effects on the composition of liquid asset holdings. We also show that a non-trivial fraction of consumers report that they will not adopt the digital euro due to strong preferences for existing forms of payment. JEL Classification: E41, E58, D12, D14, G51 |
| Keywords: | Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), consumer expectations survey, household expectations, household finance, money, payments, Randomized Control Trial (RCT) |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253035 |
| By: | Shahidur R. Khandker; Douglas F. Barnes; Hussain A. Samad; Bonsuk Koo |
| Keywords: | Energy-Electric Power Energy-Energy and Economic Development |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40238 |
| By: | Irto, Giuseppe; Kharitonov, Ivan; Nishikawa, Taro; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just 0.1% of their annual GDP on bilateral aid for Ukraine - a minor effort To replace US aid flows and keep total support at the same level: Europe needs to double its yearly support to an average level of 0.21% of GDP. This is less than half of what Denmark and the Baltics are already doing and on a level of what Poland and the Netherlands do. In short: Europe as a whole would need to follow Scandinavia's or Poland's example. In absolute terms (billions of Euro), the biggest European countries and the EU Institutions will be decisive. To replace US aid and get to 0.21% of GDP, Europe as a whole needs to increase its yearly aid flow from currently €44 bn per year to €82 bn per year. The biggest donors for that effort will be the EU institutions (Commission and EIB), who will need to increase their annual support from currently €16 bn to €36 bn per year. Next comes Germany (from currently €6 billion to at least €9 billion per year), then Great Britain (from €5 to € 6.5 bn per year), then France (from currently just €1.5 bn to €6 bn per year), Italy (from currently just €0.8 bn to €4.5 bn) and Spain (from just €0.5 bn to €3 bn per year). All remaining European donors would need to move from €14 bn to €16.5 bn per year. To avoid freeriding, we recommend offering financial incentives to those countries giving aid to Ukraine. Big Ukrainian donors (in % of GDP) could get priority access to any new EU-level defense financing scheme. Large Ukraine aid could also be exempt from EU fiscal rules, or deducted from each nations' contributions to the EU budget. (...) |
| Keywords: | Military aid, Foreign aid, War, Ukraine, Europe, Russia, Arms Trade, United States, US, Geoeconomics, Militärhilfe, Auslandshilfe, Krieg, Ukraine, Europa, Russland, Waffenhandel, Vereinigte Staaten, USA, Geo-Ökonomie |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:313634 |
| By: | Simoens, Mathieu; Tamburrini, Fabio |
| Abstract: | We examine whether loan portfolio sectoral specialization provides informational advantages to banks, enabling better credit risk assessment. Using euro area credit register data, we compare probabilities of default assigned by specialized and non-specialized banks to the same borrowing firm several quarters before the borrower defaults. We find that banks specialized in the borrower’s sector are better in predicting future defaults. This is mostly driven by specialized banks actively raising probabilities of default earlier, not by higher probabilities of default when loans are issued. As a result, specialized banks also increase provisions to these borrowers. We do not observe differences in credit risk assessment towards healthy borrowers, suggesting that the effect is not attributable to general conservatism but to more accurate evaluation of credit risk in the sectors of banks’ specialization. Our results are more pronounced for smaller firms and when banks do not have long-term relationships with their defaulting borrowers. JEL Classification: G21, G32, D82 |
| Keywords: | default, euro area banks, informational asymmetries, specialization |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253041 |
| By: | Volker, Jamey M.B.; Kim, Keuntae; Hernandez Rios, Kevin |
| Abstract: | A robust body of empirical research demonstrates that as roadway supply increases, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) generally does, too. The evidence is particularly strong with respect to major roadways, like interstate highways (class 1), other freeways and expressways (class 2), and principal arterials (class 3). However, previous literature reviews have found limited empirical evidence as to the relative magnitude of the induced travel effect of expanding minor arterials, collector streets, and local roads. Previous reviews have similarly not reported empirical research on the induced travel effects of other types of roadway facilities, such as auxiliary lanes, ramps, or other types of interchanges. In this project, the authorsconducted a systematic literature review on the induced travel effects of minor arterials, auxiliary lanes, and interchanges (including simple on/off ramps). The authors found that the empirical literature remains limited with respect to auxiliary lanes and interchanges. They found eight studies that include minor arterials in their empirical estimates of induced travel, which collectively indicate that the induced travel elasticity for class 4 minor arterials could be similar to that of class 1-3 facilities. However, none of the studies isolated the induced travel effect from minor arterials specifically. Going forward, the report suggests avenues for future research to help close these research gaps. For example, the authors recommend using case studies of individual roadway expansions to better understand the induced travel effects specific to ramps, interchanges, minor arterials, and auxiliary lanes within specific contexts, especially where larger studies (across multiple facilities, geographies, etc.) have not yet been done. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Induced travel, VMT, travel demand, road construction, traffic, arterials, auxiliary lanes, interchanges |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3xg2q30p |
| By: | Rajveer Jat (University of California, Riverside, USA); Bharat Ramaswami (Ashoka University) |
| Abstract: | The literature has debated whether the productivity gap between agriculture and non-agriculture reflects mobility barriers or selection. Non-agriculture is not a homogenous category. In developing countries, most of non-agricultural employment is informal. Could it be that the productivity gap is driven by formal sector firms that are numerically small but economically substantial? This paper compares the productivity of agriculture to the informal and formal non-farm sectors in India. The comparison controls for sectoral differences in hours worked, human capital and labor share of value added. The paper finds substantial productivity gaps with the formal sector but small and negligible gaps with the informal non-farm sector. Between 40-50% of non-farm workers are in sectors not more productive than agriculture. These findings suggest that the primary dualism in development is between the formal non-farm sector and the informal sector including agriculture. |
| Date: | 2024–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:130 |
| By: | Behringer, Jan; van Treeck, Till; Westrich, Zarah |
| Abstract: | In der öffentlichen Debatte in Deutschland wurden in den vergangenen Jahren - so zuletzt auch im Bundestagswahlkampf 2025 - kontroverse Positionen zum Thema Arbeitszeit diskutiert. Dabei wurden sowohl kürzere Arbeitszeiten (z.B. 4-Tage-Woche) als auch längere Arbeitszeiten (z.B. Steuerfreiheit von Überstundenzuschlägen) gefordert sowie innovative Ideen zur kollektiven Arbeitszeitgestaltung (z.B. soziale Dienstzeit) präsentiert. • Aus individualistischer Sicht sind Arbeitszeitwünsche Privatangelegenheit der Individuen, die grundsätzlich vor der Frage stehen, ob sie ein höheres Einkommen und weniger Freizeit oder mehr Freizeit und ein geringeres Einkommen bevorzugen. Angesichts der steigenden Produktivität pro gearbeiteter Stunde und steigender realer Stundenlöhne wäre eine zunehmende Freizeitnachfrage und eine gesellschaftliche Arbeitszeitverkürzung (abnehmende Arbeitszeit pro Kopf der Bevölkerung) aus theoretischer und aus historischer Sicht naheliegend. • Aus einer gesellschaftlichen Perspektive könnte es wünschenswert sein, dass die Menschen mehr oder weniger arbeiten, als es ihren selbst formulierten Wünschen entspricht. Gründe für kollektive Mehrarbeit könnten der internationale Standortwettbewerb oder ein möglicher Bedarf an gesellschaftlicher Mehrarbeit zur Bewältigung der ökologischen Transformation sein. Gründe für kollektive Arbeitszeitverkürzung könnten die Ermöglichung von Geschlechtergerechtigkeit, die Förderung ökologisch nachhaltiger Lebensstile und die Vermeidung von Überbietungswettbewerben zwischen Beschäftigten in der Konkurrenz um Karriereperspektiven sein. Verbindliche kollektive Arbeitszeitregelungen (etwa durch Tarifverträge oder Gesetze) können dann zu besseren Ergebnissen für die Individuen führen als individuelle Arbeitszeitentscheidungen. • Gesamtwirtschaftlich ist das Arbeitsvolumen pro Kopf der Bevölkerung seit der Wiedervereinigung vor 30 Jahren in etwa konstant, es gab also keine gesellschaftliche Arbeitszeitverkürzung. Die Erwerbstätigkeit ist um etwa 7 Millionen Personen gestiegen, vor allem aufgrund der gestiegenen Erwerbstätigkeit bei Frauen, die häufig mit kurzen Wochenarbeitszeiten arbeiten, und insgesamt aufgrund der Zunahme der geringfügigen Beschäftigung. Entsprechend ist die jährliche Arbeitszeit pro erwerbstätiger Person gesunken. • Wenn bezahlte und unbezahlte Arbeit zusammen betrachtet werden, arbeiten Frauen etwa so lange wie Männer. Frauen und Männer haben daher ähnlich viel Freizeit. Sowohl Männer als auch Frauen würden im Durchschnitt gerne ihre Erwerbsarbeit verkürzen und dafür auf Einkommen verzichten. Der Wunsch nach kürzeren Arbeitszeiten ist bei Männern im Durchschnitt stärker ausgeprägt als bei Frauen. Das bedeutet, dass Verdienstnachteile von Frauen gegenüber Männern sinken würden, wenn die Arbeitszeitwünsche realisiert würden. • Während Anfang der 1990er Jahre noch Personen mit niedrigen Stundenlöhnen länger bezahlt gearbeitet haben als Personen mit hohen Stundenlöhnen, weisen heute Beschäftigte mit hohen Stundenlöhnen längere Arbeitszeiten auf als Personen mit niedrigen Stundenlöhnen. Diese Entwicklung hat zum Anstieg der Lohn- und Einkommensungleichheit beigetragen. Bei Besserverdienenden ist der Wunsch nach kürzeren Arbeitszeiten im Durchschnitt stärker ausgeprägt als bei Geringverdienenden. Das bedeutet, dass die Verdienstungleichheit sinken würde, wenn die individuellen Arbeitszeitwünsche realisiert würden. • Eine im Herbst 2024 durchgeführte repräsentative Befragung bestätigt, dass die Beschäftigten in Deutschland kürzere individuelle Arbeitszeiten wünschen, vor allem wenn andere Beschäftigte ebenfalls die Arbeitszeit verkürzen. Die Zustimmung zur 4-Tage-Woche (auch ohne vollen Lohnausgleich) ist durchweg sehr hoch, insbesondere bei Frauen und jüngeren Beschäftigten. Jüngere Beschäftigte befürworten die 4-Tage-Woche noch stärker, wenn sie auf betrieblicher Ebene oder deutschlandweit eingeführt wird, statt nur als individuelle Wahloption. Die Steuerfreiheit von Überstundenzuschlägen findet geringere Zustimmung. Junge Beschäftigte sind zwar in hohem Maße individuell zu Überstunden bereit, sehen eine deutschlandweite Überstundenkultur aber skeptischer. Für eine soziale Dienstzeit (einjährige gemeinnützige Tätigkeit in 30-Stunden-Woche, unabhängig vom Alter) herrscht grundsätzlich Offenheit unter den Beschäftigten. Interessanterweise ist die Zustimmung zu einer für alle Bürger*innen verpflichtenden sozialen Dienstzeit mit guter Bezahlung bei Besserverdienenden größer als die Zustimmung zu einer freiwilligen Variante. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsoex:315189 |
| By: | Siddharth, L. |
| Abstract: | Technological evolution depends not only on the invention of new artefacts but also on how their knowledge is structured, represented, and propagated. In this study, we examine how the modularity of artefact knowledge influences technological impact. We utilize a dataset of 33, 803 patents from the United States Patent & Trademark Office (USPTO) and their knowledge graphs constructed using the facts extracted from patent descriptions. Using a regression analysis controlling for several structural properties of the knowledge graphs, we establish a significant positive relationship between modularity of the graph structures—measured using the Louvain method and the technological impact, as quantified by normalized forward citations. To further examine this relationship, we develop a predictive framework integrating Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and regression models to estimate normalized citation scores from patent knowledge graphs. We then apply this framework to conduct a counterfactual analysis, wherein, we tune the modularity of knowledge graphs and assess the enhancement in expected citations. The analysis reveals that patents with less or no citations could benefit the most from modularization of their knowledge, as a citation gain could help initiate their knowledge propagation. We also discuss with a few examples as to how re-representation of artefact knowledge is necessary in addition to re-designing artefacts for modularity. |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fd36m_v1 |
| By: | Nan Liu (Xiamen University); Yanbo Liu (Shandong University); Peter C.B. Phillips (Yale University, University of Auckland, Singapore Management University); Yajie Zhang (Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | Predictive regression models are often used to evaluate the predictive capability of economic fundamentals on bond and equity returns. Inferential procedures in these regressions typically employ parameter constancy or piecewise constancy in slope coefficients. Such formulations are prone to misspecification, more especially during periods of disturbance or evolution in prevailing economic and financial conditions, which can lead to size distortion and spurious evidence of predictability. To address these issues the present work proposes a semiparametric predictive regression model with mixed-root regressors and time-varying coefficients that allow for smooth evolution in the generating mechanism over time. For estimation and inference a novel variant of the self-generated instrument approach called Sieve-IVX is introduced, giving a robust approach to inference concerning time-varying predictability that is applicable irrespective of the degrees of persistence. Asymptotic theory of the Sieve-IVX approach is provided together with both pointwise and uniform inference procedures for testing predictability and model specification. Simulations show excellent performance characteristics of these statistics in finite samples. An empirical exercise is conducted to examine excess S&P 500 returns, \ applying Sieve-IVX regression coupled with pointwise and uniform tests to reveal evidence of time-varying patterns in the predictive capability of commonly used fundamental variables. |
| Date: | 2025–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2431 |
| By: | Holmberg, Johan (Department of Economics at Umea School of Business, Economics and Statistics, and Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies (UCFS)); Selin, Håkan (Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU) and UCFS) |
| Abstract: | An increase in the dividend tax on shares of Swedish closely-held corporations, scheduled for January 1, 2018, was canceled at short notice. In a difference-in-difference setting, we examine how firms reacted to the canceled reform. We find that dividends payments increased in 2016 and 2017 and declined sharply in 2018, especially for cash-rich firms. However, cash holdings recovered quickly in 2018 and 2019, and the excessive dividend payouts did not affect investments. Paradoxically, the discontinued reform implied an additional tax burden for those engaged in intertemporal tax arbitrage. |
| Keywords: | Owner level taxes; tax planning; investments; employment |
| JEL: | G35 H32 |
| Date: | 2025–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_003 |
| By: | Yatish Arya (Department of Economics, Ashoka University); Amit Chaudhary (Gillmore Centre for Financial Technology, Warwick Business School, United Kingdom); Anisha Garg (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | Religious groups sometimes resist welfare-enhancing interventions, impacting human capital. Can resistance to secular education arise when rulers sharing religious identity with a group are deposed by foreign powers? Focusing on colonial India, we analyze the impact of shared religious identity between deposed local rulers and religious groups on literacy. Muslim literacy is lower where British authorities replaced a Muslim ruler, and Hindu literacy is lower when the ousted ruler was Hindu. Addressing OVB, we use literacy differences, complemented by an IV approach. Our results show that the effect of shared religious identity on literacy rates depended on the historical ties between deposed rulers and their subjects: in districts where ousted rulers had historical connections to their co-religionists, there was greater resistance to education introduced by the colonizers. |
| Date: | 2025–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:138 |
| By: | FABBRI Emanuele (European Commission - JRC); ZIVKOVIC Lazar; STRBAC Dijana; LJUMOVIC Isidora |
| Abstract: | This report, aligned with the JRC's efforts under the Global Gateway strategy as EU flagship investment plan underpinning the external dimension of EU policy across the world, provides insights into Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) collaboration in the Western Balkans, crucial for advancing regional development agendas. It addresses urgent questions on leveraging ICT for digitalisation and green transformation, recognizing high stakes for economic growth and sustainability. Through a mixed-methods approach, it identifies a strong commitment to ICT cooperation among Western Balkan economies, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to overcome financial constraints and limited awareness. Key possible policy implications include establishing regional cooperation platforms, creating regional support financial instruments for Smart Specialisation Strategies (S3) implementation, and harmonising legal frameworks to foster cross-border cooperation, all essential for enhancing regional competitiveness and innovation capacity. The report underscores the importance of regional partnerships, digital skill enhancement, and strategic alignment to unlock the full potential of the ICT sector in driving economic resilience and growth in the Western Balkans. This study sheds light on the main challenges ahead and opportunities in the region, to be possibly tackled also in the context of the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc140887 |
| By: | Anna Bindler |
| Abstract: | Weltweit stirbt laut offiziellen Statistiken alle zehn Minuten eine Frau oder ein Mädchen aufgrund von Gewalt innerhalb der eigenen Familie. In Deutschland erfährt laut den vom Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend (BMFSFJ) veröffentlichten Zahlen ungefähr jede vierte Frau mindestens einmal in ihrem Leben körperliche oder sexualisierte Gewalt durch ihren Partner oder Ex-Partner. Die individuellen und gesellschaftlichen Kosten dieser Gewalttaten sind hoch und sollten von Politik und Gesellschaft ernst genommen werden. Dabei müssen – auch aus ökonomischer Sicht – neben der Strafverfolgung insbesondere Prävention und Opferschutz eine größere Rolle spielen. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwakt:110de |
| By: | Aparajita Dasgupta (Ashoka University); Devvrat Raghav (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | How does access to infrastructure mediate the processes of structural transformation in the presence of climate shocks? By exploiting a large-scale rural road construction program in India, we ask whether rural road connectivity can preserve the gains from structural transformation in emerging markets. In comparison to the existing literature, we provide a newer framework to study the effects of road infrastructure access in mitigating the impact of climate shocks on structural transformation. The program roll out criteria allows us to employ a fuzzy difference-in-discontinuity design to provide the first line of causal evidence in this area. Overall, we find a mixed effect of rural road connectivity on agricultural participation. Interestingly, we find that while road connectivity enables exits from farm labour it also raises the share of households in cultivation. Importantly, while temperature shocks drive down local demand, this effect is somewhat counteracted by access to paved roads. Our results suggest the role of rural infrastructure policies in alleviating the burden of rising temperature, which has first order policy relevance in the context of designing policy instruments to tackle long-term climate change, not just within the country but for all rural regions across the developing world. |
| Keywords: | Climate Shocks; India; Infrastructure; Labour markets; Road access |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:122 |
| By: | Brian Blankespoor; Susmita Dasgupta; Wheeler, David |
| Abstract: | Biodiversity is essential for ecological stability, human well-being, and economic progress, providing critical ecosystem services such as clean water, food, and climate regulation. However, it faces unprecedented threats, with extinction rates accelerating to 1, 000 times the natural baseline due to habitat destruction, overexploitation, pollution, invasive species, illegal trade, and climate change. Effective conservation requires urgent, coordinated global action, as ecosystems and species habitats often transcend national borders. Collaboration among governments, industries, and communities is essential to restore habitats, protect endangered species, strengthen policies, and enforce conservation measures. The challenges of biodiversity conservation are particularly acute in geopolitically sensitive and overlapping regions, including non-determined legal status territories, fragile and conflict-affected situations, and transboundary ecosystems. In these areas, effective conservation is hindered by weak policies, inconsistent enforcement, and institutional fragility. This paper addresses these challenges by providing baseline data to guide conservation strategies. Using newly developed World Bank species occurrence maps based on open-access, date-stamped records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the study evaluates species richness, endemism, and extinction risks across 35 non-determined legal status territories, 19 conflict-affected countries, 20 fragile states, 18 marine joint regimes, and 311 international river basins. The data sets reveal that these regions host numerous, often vulnerable, species. Biodiversity conservation emerges as a pathway for trust-building and collaboration, aligning stakeholders around shared goals such as climate resilience and sustainable livelihoods. Reliable and comparable data sets are critical for evidence-based planning, fostering dialogue and cooperation among divided groups. The estimates presented in this paper aim to support robust, data-driven strategies to safeguard biodiversity in geopolitically sensitive and overlapping regions, with far-reaching implications for global conservation and international cooperation. |
| Date: | 2025–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11076 |
| By: | Patrick Premand; Pascale Schnitzer |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the direct effects and local spillovers of a low-cost multifaceted economic inclusion program through a randomized controlled trial in Chad. The intervention included group savings promotion, micro-entrepreneurship training, and a lump-sum cash grant delivered to poor female beneficiaries of a regular cash transfer program. It was designed to address multiple constraints to productivity and livelihoods, but at a much lower cost (approximately $104 per household) than most stand-alone nongovernmental organization graduation pilots and government-led economic inclusion programs. The results show substantial impacts on food consumption 18 months after the intervention. A reallocation of labor between economic activities is observed, along with higher revenues from agriculture and off-farm micro-enterprises. The intervention improved women's empowerment and some dimensions of social well-being. The findings show evidence of positive local spillovers, with improvements in food consumption and economic activities among households that were not assigned to the economic inclusion program in targeted villages. The results are consistent with the intervention broadly improving saving, sharing, and financial support mechanisms, as well as potential demand-side effects in the labor and product markets. Once spillovers are accounted for, the intervention becomes cost-effective without assuming that any impact persists past the follow-up survey at 18 months. |
| Date: | 2025–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11084 |
| By: | Abu Sayed Toyon, Mohammad |
| Abstract: | Juggling work, personal responsibilities, and academic obligations can be challenging for many students, who work while studying, potentially leading to difficulties in adapting to the academic demands and compromising academic success. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between life domain (e.g., work, personal, and university) obstacles and academic adaptation among working university students in Estonia. Using the data from the Eurostudent-VII survey, the study estimated quantitative measures of association. The findings suggest that work-related issues negatively affect academic adaptation, while concerns related to childcare and the financial situation did not have any statistically significant impact. In contrast, issues with unsuitable and demanding academic programmes were found to significantly affect academic adaptation for working students. This study sheds light on the challenges faced by working students and the manner in which these obstacles can affect academic experiences, underscoring the need for support for employed university students in Estonia. Such knowledge can be put to further research use, and it can also inform initiatives aimed at assisting students, who are simultaneously working and pursuing higher education. |
| Date: | 2023–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:af8rw_v1 |
| By: | Nauges, Céline; Wheeler, Sarah Ann; Grafton, Quentin R. |
| Abstract: | The allocation of water across space and time is a key challenge of water governance, with demand and supply often not well matched over time and place. Best practice water pricing and markets may promote water conservation, yet their application is limited. We highlight the governance principles needed for best practice water pricing and water markets, describe differences across regions, and provide six key water demand governance recommendations, for both Global North and Global South countries. |
| Keywords: | Global South; Global North; water trade; water markets; water crisis; water security; climate change; sustainable development; taxes; costs; tariffs; subsidies. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130501 |
| By: | Koppel, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Die Stärke Deutschlands im globalen Patentwettbewerb bemisst sich nicht an jenen Patentanmeldungen, die hierzulande hervorgebracht werden, sondern vielmehr an jenen, die von Deutschland aus kontrolliert werden. Die industriepolitisch relevante Frage lautet folglich, wer als Global Ultimate Owner (finaler Eigentümer) eines Patents fungiert und in welcher Region der Welt demnach die zugehörigen Kontrollrechte liegen. In der Entstehungsperspektive vereint Deutschland aktuell zwar 16, 5 Prozent aller transnationalen Patentanmeldungen der Jahre 2017-2021 auf sich, in der Kontrollperspektive dagegen lediglich 14, 7 Prozent. Per Saldo verliert Deutschland folglich in einem relevanten Ausmaß hierzulande hervorgebrachte intellektuelle Eigentumsrechte an das Ausland. Eine in diesem Zusammenhang große Herausforderung für das deutsche Geschäftsmodell stellen Unternehmensübernahmen dar. Aktuell sind rund 4.400 verschiedene Unternehmen am Forschungsstandort Deutschland patentaktiv, die samt ihren Patenten von einem Global Ultimate Owner aus dem Ausland kontrolliert werden. Als unmittelbare Konsequenz befinden sich zum aktuellen Zeitpunkt rund 39.700 oder 26 Prozent aller in Deutschland hervorgebrachten transnationalen Patentanmeldungen in ausländischem Besitz, während rund 25.000 im Ausland entstandene Patentanmeldungen von Deutschland aus kontrolliert werden. Hinter den USA fließen die drittmeisten Patente bereits nach China ab. Angesichts der aktuellen geopolitischen Entwicklungen müssen nicht nur letztere, sondern auch erstere kritisch hinterfragt werden. Diesen Ergebnissen und auch der pessimistischen Stimmungslage zum Trotz behauptet Deutschland in zahlreichen Technologiebereichen trotz hoher Volumina der entsprechenden Patent-Weltmärkte einen hohen Anteil. Liegt eine derart dominante Position vor, so ist der zugehörige Weltmarkt stark von deutscher Technologie abhängig. Insbesondere im Maschinen- und Fahrzeugbau kontrolliert Deutschland zahlreiche wichtige Technologie, so bei Maschinen aus den Bereichen Druck, Landwirtschaft und Bearbeitung von Werkstoffen, bei Schienenfahrzeugen, aber auch im Bereich der Elektromobilität, etwa beim Laden des elektrifizierten Antriebsstrangs. Und auch in einigen Technologiebereichen der erneuerbaren Energien zählt Deutschland zur internationalen Spitze und kontrolliert beispielsweise 36 Prozent aller transnationalen Patentanmeldungen bei Windkraftanlagen sowie 32 Prozent bei Wärmepumpen. Besonders stark ausgeprägt ist die Abhängigkeit des Weltmarkts von deutscher Technologie bei Flüssigkristall-Materialien, die in Displays, optoelektronischen Bauelementen sowie polymeren Werkstoffen zum Einsatz kommen. Mit einem Anteil von 73 Prozent kontrolliert Deutschland in diesem Bereich nahezu drei Viertel aller transnationalen Patentanmeldungen weltweit. |
| Abstract: | Germany's strength in global patent competition is not accurately measured by patent applications emerging from Germany, but rather by those that are actually controlled by Germany. The relevant question in terms of industrial policy is therefore who acts as the global ultimate owner of a patent and in which region of the world do the associated control rights lie. From a emergence perspective, Germany currently accounts for 16.5% of all transnational patent applications in the years 2017-2021, but only 14.7% from a control perspective. On balance, Germany is therefore losing a relevant amount of intellectual property rights generated in Germany to other countries. In this context, company takeovers represent a major challenge for the German business model. Currently, around 4, 400 different companies are patent-active in Germany as a research location, which are controlled by a global ultimate owner from abroad, together with their patents. As a direct consequence, around 39, 700 or 26 percent of all transnational patent applications generated in Germany are currently owned by foreign entities, while around 25, 000 patent applications generated abroad are controlled from Germany. After the USA, the third most patents already flow to China. In view of current geopolitical developments, not only the latter but also the former must be critically scrutinized. Despite these results and the pessimistic mood, Germany maintains a high share in numerous technology areas despite the high volumes of the corresponding global patent markets. With such a dominant position, the corresponding global market is heavily dependent on German technology. In mechanical engineering and vehicle construction in particular, Germany controls numerous important technologies, such as machines in the fields of printing, agriculture and the processing of materials, rail vehicles, but also in the field of electromobility, for example in the charging of electrified powertrains. Germany is also an international leader in some areas of renewable energy technology, controlling 36% of all transnational patent applications for wind turbines and 32% for heat pumps, for example. The global market is particularly dependent on German technology for liquid crystal materials, which are used in displays, optoelectronic components and polymer materials. With a share of 73 percent, Germany controls almost three quarters of all transnational patent applications worldwide in this area. |
| JEL: | O31 O57 F20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:313656 |
| By: | Tsvetelina Nenova |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel empirical evidence on portfolio rebalancing in international bond markets through the prism of investors' demand for bonds. Using a granular dataset of global government and corporate bond holdings by mutual funds domiciled in the world's two largest currency areas, I estimate heterogeneous and time varying demand elasticities for bonds. Safe assets such as US Treasuries or German Bunds face especially inelastic demand from investment funds compared to riskier bonds. But spillovers from these safe assets to global bond markets are strikingly different. Funds substitute US Treasuries with global bonds, including risky corporate and emerging market bonds, whereas German Bunds are primarily substitutable within a narrow set of euro area safe government bonds. Substitutability deteriorates in times of stress, impairing the transmission of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | international finance, portfolio choice, safe assets |
| JEL: | F30 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1254 |
| By: | Tushar, Hasanuzzaman; Giao, Ha Nam Khanh |
| Abstract: | The goal of this research is to examine the influence of transformational leadership (TL) on employees’ job-related outcomes, noting the mediating roles of public service motivation (PSM) as well as the moderating effect of power distance orientation (PDO). Surveys were collected from 605 civil servants currently working in local governments in Vietnam and the researcher used the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) technique with SmartPLS 3.0 software to test hypotheses. The findings showed that there was a positive influence of trans- formational leadership on employees’ work outcomes; this relationship was mediated partially through public service motivation. Also, the finding revealed the moderating effects of power distance orientation on the effect of perceived trans- formational leadership on public service motivation, job satisfaction, and job performance. Civil servants with high power distance orientation tended to dampen the positive relationship between transformational leadership and public service motivation which led to decreased job satisfaction and job performance. Based on the findings, it is recommended that managers or leaders in Vietnamese local governments should apply transformational leadership in practice to improve the level of employee work outcomes. Finally, this study broadens new knowledge to the existing literature on transformational leadership and job-related outcomes by proposing an alternative model of how this relationship exists. Besides, the findings showed that although transformational leaders can lead to good behavioral out- comes, high power distance orientation could mitigate this benefit. |
| Date: | 2023–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:avsnr_v1 |
| By: | Davine, Michelle |
| Abstract: | Rantai pasok sejauh ini digambarkan sebagai garis lurus dari ekstraksi bahan mentah hingga pasokannya ke produsen, yang mengirimkan produknya ke konsumen akhir melalui distributor. Kelanjutan dari model ini berarti menipisnya sumber daya planet selama beberapa dekade mendatang. Untungnya, kesadaran akan pentingnya menciptakan ekonomi sirkular semakin meningkat. Banyak industri bereaksi terhadap urgensi iklim. Namun, mengalihkan bisnis ke model yang berkelanjutan tidaklah mudah dan implementasinya membutuhkan pemikiran kepemimpinan dan inovasi. Ekonomi sirkular didasarkan pada tiga prinsip: kurangi, gunakan kembali, dan daur ulang (Miebach, 2023). |
| Date: | 2023–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h2tsj_v1 |
| By: | Matteo Ferrazzi; Francesca Guadagno (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Jochen Schanz; Tomáš Slačík; Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The Draghi Report recommended actions to secure the long-term EU competitive position but did not discuss the challenges related to specific countries or regional groups, including those of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. While CEE economies remain focused on manufacturing, especially the automotive industry, they are gradually shifting from being the EU's manufacturing hub to developing higher value-added activities. However, income convergence has slowed, suggesting the need to rethink their growth model. Our research highlights growth opportunities and suggests ways to reduce barriers to innovation. Policy should focus on three areas strengthening human capital, fostering innovation, and addressing energy intensity and its relatively high costs. Key actions include increasing labour market participation, ensuring access to start-up finance and risk capital, and reducing the region’s reliance on brown energy, particularly through grid and generation investment and the development of greener businesses. |
| Keywords: | Competitiveness, trade, innovation, Central Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | F14 F15 O11 O47 O52 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:93 |