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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Shunsuke Haba (Bank of Japan); Kimihiko Izawa (Bank of Japan); Yui Kishaba (Bank of Japan); Yusuke Takahashi (Bank of Japan); Shunichi Yoneyama (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the policy effects of the Bank of Japan's expansionary monetary policy measures since the introduction of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) in 2013 using the Bank of Japan's large-scale macroeconomic model, the Quarterly Japanese Economic Model (Q-JEM). Specifically, we generate "counterfactual paths" for key financial variables, including nominal interest rates, as well as inflation expectations, in a hypothetical scenario where these policy measures are absent. Then, we conduct counterfactual analysis using Q-JEM to simulate the developments of real GDP and the CPI under those counterfactual paths, and estimate the policy effects as the differences between the actual values and the simulation results. The analysis shows that, during the period from the introduction of QQE in 2013 to the April-June quarter of 2023, the policy measures have on average pushed up the level of real GDP by around +1.3 to +1.8 percent and the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (less fresh food and energy) by around +0.5 to +0.7 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Policy effect; Large macroeconomic model; Simulation |
| JEL: | C53 E37 E43 E47 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp25e02 |
| By: | Eckhard Hein; Moritz Marpe; Karolina Schütt |
| Abstract: | Ederer/Rehm (2020b) empirically calibrated long-run equilibrium wealth distribution for ten European countries, mainly using 2010 Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) data. Measuring wealth inequality through the capitalists’ share of wealth, they find that seven out of ten countries deviate from Piketty’s (2014) prediction that under the condition of r > g wealth distribution will become ever more unequal. With the actual capitalists’ share in 2010 below the calibrated equilibrium, however, they forecast increasing wealth inequality. Our research extends this analysis in two ways. Firstly, using the 2010, 2014, 2017, and 2021 HFCS data, we recalibrate the equilibrium based on 2010 data and track the capitalists’ share of wealth over the decade. We observe convergence tendencies towards the stable long-run equilibrium in some but not in all countries. Secondly, we expand the Ederer/Rehm (2020b) model to include real estate assets and mortgage debt. Recalibrating the long-run equilibrium for this extended model using 2010 values produces a similar pattern: For three countries, Piketty’s prediction holds, while for the remaining seven the equilibrium capitalists’ wealth share is lower than 100 per cent. The extended model shows a much lower actual capitalists’ share of wealth, supporting the idea that real estate assets, adjusted for mortgage debt, are more equally distributed than other types of wealth. Wealth inequality for the extended model is also predicted to rise. Based on 2014, 2017 and 2021 HFCS data, we indeed find a convergence of actual wealth distribution towards the stable long-run equilibrium for some, but not for all countries. In several countries, the stable long-run equilibrium distribution itself varies over time, partly in line with actual distribution which points to potential endogeneity of the former towards the latter. The channels remain to be explored. |
| Keywords: | Wealth distribution, post-Kaleckian model, model calibration |
| JEL: | D31 E12 E21 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2506 |
| By: | Engelbert Stockhammer; Quirin Dammerer; Andreas Maschke |
| Abstract: | This paper charts the rise and decline of post-Keynesian economics (PKE) in Austria. Keynesianism arrives in Austria via economic policy debates in social democratic circles where it is used to develop a policy strategy later known as Austro-Keynesianism. PKE gets a foothold at the Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (WIFO), Austria’s foremost applied economics research institute, and the Chamber of Labour, before establishing itself at the University of Linz. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s the centre of gravity shifts from Linz to the Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien (WU). During the same period, a lot of applied and policy-oriented research is carried out at WIFO, most of it in German. In the 2000s a blooming of heterodox economics occurs at WU, followed by a rapid dissolution of the heterodox community there. Since around 2010 mainstream economics has reasserted itself and PKE is no longer present at economics departments across Austria. Many of the current generation of post-Keynesian scholars either work abroad, in other disciplines, or in policy-oriented institutions. The main themes of Austrian PKE include income and wealth distribution, finance and financialisation, and ecological economics. In a comparative perspective, the intricate link between the post-Keynesian academic milieu and progressive economic policy is particularly interesting. |
| Keywords: | Keynesianism, post-Keynesian economics, Austro-Keynesianism, Austria, economic policy |
| JEL: | B20 B24 B51 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2503 |
| By: | Janani Rangan (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi, India); Abhiman Das (Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad) |
| Abstract: | FIn this paper, we examine the dynamics between inflation uncertainty, beliefs and inflation expectations of firms. Inflation uncertainty and beliefs influence a firm’s perception of the inflation levels, thereby impacting its expected inflation. Using novel survey data on firm inflation expectations, we examine the extent to which crises influence the relationship between inflation uncertainty and inflation expectations. We find that the effect of crisis-led inflation uncertainty on inflation expectation is asymmetric. The COVID-19 pandemic increased the impact of high inflation uncertainty on inflation expectations. On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine war reduced inflation expectations. The war effect may be attributed to geopolitical factors that helped India procure crude oil from Russia on favourable terms. Additionally, we find that the disagreement in expected inflation across firms seems to have increased in the period postpandemic. Further, this paper analyses whether firms’ beliefs about their own performance influence inflation expectations. Performance can impact the perception of cost structure, thereby, inflation expectations. The findings suggest that firms’ beliefs about their performance are negatively associated with inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations, Inflation uncertainty, beliefs, firms |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E58 E60 |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:179 |
| By: | Ayoze Alfageme |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes a connection between non-financial corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and the rise of large firms, decline productive investment, concentration of markets and profits, and rising markups. First, using Refinitiv M&A deals data, I briefly recount the history of corporate M&A deal making in the last four decades in which this study focuses (1980-2020), with special attention to its sector dynamics. Second, the paper presents a literature review highlighting the gap for the type of study presented here, in terms of both methods and time scope. An articulation of the process from which M&A are linked to the new corporate environment is presented in the form of 6 hypothesis. Third, using Compustat firm-level data I present stylised evidence poiting towards the potential validation of those 6 hypothesis. I found that M&A has become an important corporate growth strategy (hypothesis 1). A steeper drop in capital expenditure among firms with the highest acquisition spending points to scrapping capex for M&A (hypothesis 2). Fed’s flow of funds data suggests corporate funds are redirected to the household sector for M&A payments, potentially depleting corporate funds. A micro-macro tension arises (hypothesis 3), where individual firms grow larger in total assets through M&A to achieve corporate growth goals, while their capex declines, dampening aggregate corporate investment. M&A is also connected to the rise in market concentration (hypothesis 4) and the accumulation of intangibles that create barriers to entry (hypothesis 5). Finally, firms with the most acquisitions, account for 40% of total profits and have higher markups (hypothesis 6). In a period where efforts are aimed at curbing M&A deals, these findings highlight the implications of leaving the M&A market unrestricted. |
| Keywords: | Mergers and Acquisitions, Market Concentration, Corporate Investment, Firm Growth |
| JEL: | D22 G34 L11 L40 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2505 |
| By: | Bruno Merlevede; Pablo Muylle (-) |
| Abstract: | Since the late 2000s, shocks and crises of various types have led to a revival of state intervention around the world. This paper builds a large firm-level dataset to analyze state ownership of firms in Europe for the period 2002-18. We confirm the underperformance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) relative to privately-owned enterprises (POEs) found in earlier literature for this recent period for a range of firm-level performance indicators. We also examine the impact of SOEs on private firms. We find that larger SOE presence in an industry is associated with lower productivity growth and lower productivity levels among private firms in that industry, but does not affect industry dynamics in terms of entry and exit. This suggests potential aggregate productivity gains from reallocating resources from SOEs to POEs. Further, we show that employment is more stable and crisis-resistant at SOEs, and that SOEs are a more stable source of downstream input demand for other firms. Leveraging our dataset's cross-country nature, we find that SOEs are complements to, rather than substitutes for, lower quality institutions. |
| Keywords: | State ownership, Firm performance, Productivity, Spillover e ects, Privatization, Business dynamism |
| JEL: | H11 L25 L32 O47 P31 P52 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1105 |
| By: | Diab, Osama |
| Abstract: | By emphasising the role of historical contingency in determining the losers and winners of economic interaction, the article argues that barter terms of trade (BTT) evolution is key to understanding central phenomena of the modern capitalist era apart from Weberian and Sombartian culturalist interpretations. By examining BTT data between Egypt and Britain in the long 19th century, the article demonstrates how it was a rational choice by an independent economy to commit to a 'peripheral' comparative advantage as future value evolution could not have been predicted at the onset of such commitment. Relying on previously unpublished archival records, the article also explores the role of empire and political power in determining supply and demand and hence value evolution, challenging neoclassical assumptions about the central role of consumer choice in influencing supply, demand and commodity value. The article argues that the BTT evolution is key to understanding two central phenomena of the modern capitalist era away from Weberian- and Sombartian-style culturalist interpretations. First is the growing uneven development–known as the Great Divergence–between the 'core' and the 'periphery' of the global economic system, and second is the rise of anti-colonial sentiments and policies in the Global South. |
| Date: | 2023–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:africa:g69ed_v1 |
| By: | David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson; Maggie R. Jones; Bradley Setzler |
| Abstract: | This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors such as medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominantly exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions. |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J31 J62 L6 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33424 |
| By: | Kevin Corinth; David Coyne; Naomi E. Feldman; Craig Johnson |
| Abstract: | For a place-based policy to succeed, it must target the right areas—typically those with lower economic development and resident well-being. The U.S. has two major place-based tax policies: the New Markets Tax Credit (NMTC), where government approved entities select investments, and Opportunity Zones (OZs), where private investors choose projects. Despite underlying design differences, both target census tracts with relatively high poverty rates, low median income and weak labor markets. However, OZs tend to attract more investment in areas with higher pre-existing private investment, often located in prosperous counties and high-growth regions. Census tracts lacking investment from either program generally have less private investment, lower home value growth, and lower population growth, suggesting that additional policies may be needed to reach areas less primed for investment. |
| JEL: | D61 E22 H23 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33414 |
| By: | Martin Iseringhausen; Konstantinos Theodoridis |
| Date: | 2025–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:wpaper:68 |
| By: | Fan, Shibo; Jiao, Jie; Lin, Pengfeng; Meng, Qingzuo |
| Abstract: | The employment of multiple AUVs is to perform missions while maintaining a geometric formation designated. In this paper, communication mechanism based on blackboard is introduced to support cooperation between AUVs, messages are typed according to artificial intelligence. The hierarchical formation control algorithm is proposed, including designing level, generating level, behavioural level, evaluating level. Several formation patterns are designed according to different tasks and requirements. Orderly‐Quaternion sets and control matrix are defined for the design of accurate formation geometry. Behaviours of following subgoals and avoiding obstacles enable AUVs team move forward to destination by keeping ideal pattern. Formation length rate and formation maintaining rate are utilised for AUVs team to evaluate the effect of formation. Finally, the presented approach is verified by a simulation of a swarm of AUVs moving through a constrained environment. |
| Keywords: | control nonlinearities; distributed control |
| JEL: | O10 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127126 |
| By: | Kuusi, Tero; Kotamäki, Mauri; Kirkko-Jaakkola, Mikael |
| Abstract: | Abstract Our analysis indicates that high marginal tax rates may diminish economic activity and weaken public finances in Finland. The existing literature credibly demonstrates that, particularly among highly productive workers, the distortive effects of taxation are more pronounced, impeding both career progression and intangible investments. Supporting research and development (R&D) activities can partially offset the adverse effects of stringent taxation. However, the innovation system should be optimized to effectively internalize the externalities associated with innovations. |
| Keywords: | Taxation, Marginal tax rate, Laffer curve, Externalities, Intangible capital |
| JEL: | D6 E6 H2 H3 J2 J3 |
| Date: | 2025–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:158 |
| By: | Zugasti Tom (LAMSADE - Laboratoire d'analyse et modélisation de systèmes pour l'aide à la décision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AFPCNT - Association Française pour la Prévention des Catastrophes Naturelles et Technologiques); Merad Myriam (LAMSADE - Laboratoire d'analyse et modélisation de systèmes pour l'aide à la décision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AFPCNT - Association Française pour la Prévention des Catastrophes Naturelles et Technologiques); Verrhiest-Leblanc Ghislaine (AFPCNT - Association Française pour la Prévention des Catastrophes Naturelles et Technologiques) |
| Abstract: | The floods in Western Europe in July 2021 have highlighted the inadequacy of flood management. More than ever before, Germany and Belgium witnessed the extreme events that can affect territories in the context of climate disruption, and were directly hit by devastating floods causing tens of billions of euros in material damage, and hundreds of deaths. The violence of the disaster was widely publicized in the media, providing an opportunity to draw up a comprehensive feedback report on the events, and to identify gaps in risk management. A concatenation of sources has enabled us to highlight a phase of crisis management that has been particularly singled out: warning. This phase of risk management is a special one, as it is subject to time constraints and improvised choices and decisions. So, starting with the legislation on alert management in Germany, we will try to understand the gap between what is prescribed in the legal texts and the reality on the ground, which could explain certain shortcomings in the management system. Cooperation and communication between players are the fundamental skills required for optimal information transmission, and this may well hold the key to integrated warning management. |
| Abstract: | Les inondations en Europe de l'Ouest en juillet 2021 ont mis en exergue une gestion lacunaire des inondations. Plus que jamais témoin des événements extrêmes qui peuvent toucher les territoires dans ce contexte de dérèglements climatiques, l'Allemagne et la Belgique ont été frappées directement par des inondations dévastatrices provoquant des dizaines de milliards d'euros de dégâts matériels, et des centaines de morts. La violence de la catastrophe a été très exposée médiatiquement, permettant de dresser un retour d'expérience complet des événements afin d'identifier les points lacunaires dans la gestion du risque. Un travail de concaténation des sources a permis de mettre en avant une phase de la gestion de la crise particulièrement pointée du doigt : l'alerte. Cette phase de la gestion du risque est spéciale car soumise à la contraction du temps et à l'improvisation des choix et des décisions. Ainsi, en partant de la législation sur la gestion de l'alerte en Allemagne, nous tenterons de comprendre quel est le gap entre le prescrit dans les textes de loi, et la réalité du terrain qui pourrait expliquer certaines défaillances dans le système de gestion. La coopération et la communication entre les acteurs sont les compétences fondamentales pour une transmission optimale des informations, ainsi, réside peut-être ici la clé d'une gestion intégrée de l'alerte. |
| Keywords: | Inondation, Alerte précoce, Retour d'expérience, Coordination, Communication, Mots-clefs -Inondation alerte précoce coordination communication retour d'expérience Flooding early warning coordination communication feedback, Mots-clefs -Inondation, alerte précoce, coordination, communication, retour d'expérience Flooding, early warning, feedback |
| Date: | 2024–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04878701 |
| By: | Siar, Sheila V.; Lorenzo, Pauline Joy M. |
| Abstract: | Local government units (LGUs) are at the forefront of the Philippine government’s COVID-19 pandemic response. One of their crucial functions is crisis and risk communication to ease public fear, mitigate the pandemic’s damage, and promote the adoption of health and safety protocols. However, only a few studies have examined LGUs’ COVID-19 experience, and no study has delved deeply into the crisis and risk communication strategies of Philippine LGUs. To fill this gap, this study investigated how LGUs communicated with their residents during the pandemic, particularly from 2020 to 2021, following the Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication model. It utilized a mixed method approach encompassing desk review, a cursory audit of national COVID-19 plans and policies, key informant interviews with representatives from Pasay, Manila, Caloocan, and Navotas, and a content analysis of COVID-19-related Facebook posts from these LGUs. The results revealed the LGUs’ lack of a strong preparation phase, highlighting their reactive approach to the pandemic. All four LGUs did not have a communication plan and a monitoring and evaluation system, which hindered the systematic implementation, monitoring, and assessment of their communication strategies. A closer look at their interventions showed that they used a combination of traditional, electronic, and digital communication channels. Digital channels, such as social media, virtual meetings and groups, and online messaging platforms, were largely used and proved useful amid mobility restrictions and the need for physical distancing. Traditional channels remained useful, particularly face-to-face communication whenever possible, printed materials, and interpersonal channels on the ground like barangay officials and health personnel. While social media was largely used, LGUs failed to maximize its potential to combat fake news and enhance their responsiveness to the public. The analysis of the LGUs’ Facebook messages indicated a need for clearer communication by using local languages more frequently, simplifying technical terms, and increasing the use of visual communication. Several contextual factors affected the LGUs’ communication functions during the pandemic. These included delays in receiving official memos on new policies from the national government, rapidly changing guidelines, difficulty in communicating a novel disease, inadequate training in science, risk, and crisis communication, insufficient resources, personal health risks of COVID-19, and spread of false information. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19;crisis and risk communication;social media;pandemic response |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:rps_2025-01 |
| By: | Steinführer, Annett (Ed.); Osterhage, Frank (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | Im Mittelpunkt unseres Forschungsinteresses stand das Binnenwanderungsgeschehen in Deutschland zwischen 2000 und 2022 (Makroebene) und, mit einem Fokus auf den Zeitraum 2015 bis 2020, die dafür auf der Mikroebene der Haushalte ausschlaggebenden Entscheidungen. Als Wohnstandortentscheidungen untersuchen wir vergangene Wanderungen (also Wohnstandortwechsel, bei denen mindestens die administrative Grenze einer Gemeinde überschritten wird), Rückwanderungen und residentielle Multilokalität sowie das längerfristige Bleiben in ländlichen Räumen. Auch beabsichtigte Wohnmobilität findet Berücksichtigung. Wohnstandortentscheidungen definieren wir als im Lebensverlauf immer wieder stattfindende Abwägungs- und Aushandlungsprozesse von Haushalten in Bezug auf einen subjektiv angemessenen Wohnstandort. Typische Auslöser sind haushaltsinterne Veränderungen (Statuspassagen) und haushaltsexterne Faktoren. Auch Zufälle und Gelegenheiten spielen für Wohnstandortentscheidungen eine Rolle... |
| Abstract: | Our research focused on internal migration in Germany between 2000 and 2022 (macro level) and, restricted to the period 2015 to 2020, on the decisions behind these migration patterns at the micro level of households. Subsumed under the concept of residential location decisions, we analysed past migration (i.e., relocations in which the administrative boundary of a municipality is crossed), return migration and residential multilocality as well as long-term staying in rural areas. Intended future residential mobility was also taken into account. We define residential location decisions as recurrent household-related processes of deliberating and negotiating subjectively appropriate residential locations. Typical triggers are internal household changes (so-called status passages) and external factors. Chance and housing opportunities also play a role in residential location decisions... |
| Keywords: | Wanderungsgeschehen, Wohnstandortentscheidungen, Binnenwanderungen, Bleiben, ländliche Räume, städtische Räume, Bevölkerungsbefragung, Deutschland, residential location decisions, migration patterns, internal migration, staying, rural areas, urban areas, population survey, Germany |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:311819 |
| By: | Gunawan, Ce |
| Abstract: | Teknologi digital telah mengubah kehidupan manusia di berbagai bidang dan mengikis kehidupan konvensional, salah satunya dalam hal mencari informasi. Hal ini memicu anggapan penting bagi pengusaha Indonesia bahwa media digital akan mengikis media konvensional dan perlunya untuk bertransformasi dari konvensional ke media digital. Perkembangan Teknologi digital mengubah gaya hidup masyarakat secara umum, dapat dilihat dari perubahan perilaku masyarakat, termasuk cara pembelian barang dan jasa, baik yang dilakukan secara online untuk meningkatkan pelayanan, efektifitas, kecepatan, maupun dari segi keamanan untuk memberikan kemudahan. bagi nasabah Hal tersebut memnicu usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (UMKM) untuk beralih ke digital. |
| Date: | 2023–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:thesis:67wud_v1 |
| By: | Schnell, Theresa |
| Abstract: | Steht die als frei und unabhängig angenommene Kunst und Kulturarbeit im Widerspruch zu ihrer bürokratisch und an Sachzwängen orientierten Finanzierung? Das Diskussionspapier prüft diese These auf der Grundlage von anonymisierten Gruppengesprächen mit den Akteur:innen aus zwei Kunstvereinen. Es versucht das genannte Spannungsfeld genauer zu fassen und stellt zudem die Frage, wie die Akteur:innen mit den erlebten Dissonanzen umgehen. Für die Fallstudie nutzt das Diskussionspapier die dokumentarische Methode. Durch die Analyse der beiden Gespräche - einzeln und im Vergleich - werden erste Begriffe entwickelt, die helfen können, sowohl das Spannungsfeld als normativen Rahmen als auch die darin entwickelten Handlungsweisen (Orientierungsschemata im engen sowie im weiten Sinn) besser zu greifen. |
| Keywords: | Kulturarbeit, Kulturorganisationen, Finanzierung, dokumentarische Methode, Habitus, Orientierungsschema |
| JEL: | A12 A13 A14 H41 Z11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cuswps:311205 |
| By: | Francisco E. Ilabaca; Vy Nguyen |
| Abstract: | Digital-asset platforms and other intermediaries play important roles in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. They facilitate trading between buyers and sellers, engage in large volumes of daily transactions, and have recently expanded to provide more complex financial services. However, the extent of their activities and the potential risks they pose to financial stability are still largely opaque to regulators (Brief no. 23-02). |
| Date: | 2023–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:briefs:23-02 |
| By: | Paul Dutronc-Postel (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Arthur Guillouzouic (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Clément Malgouyres (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Rachel Paya (ESSEC Business School, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Laurent Bach (ESSEC Business School) |
| Abstract: | Présentation Qui sont les entreprises françaises qui contribuent le plus aux émissions de CO2 de l'industrie française, et quelles sont leurs caractéristiques ? Quels dispositifs de réduction des émissions de CO2 s'appliquent à elles, et selon quelles modalités ? Quel rôle insoupçonné peuvent avoir les outils fiscaux généraux, a priori sans visée environnementale ? Cette note répond successivement à ces trois questions, et propose un premier cadre d'analyse pour l'évaluation ex ante des mesures de politiques publiques à destination des entreprises. Nous documentons la distribution de l'intensité carbone dans le tissu industriel français, ainsi que les tarifications effectives du carbone auxquelles sont soumis différents types d'entreprises. Enfin, nous examinons le ciblage carbone implicite de différents dispositifs fiscaux sans visée environnementale. Résultats clés Les émissions de CO2 du secteur industriel sont extrêmement concentrées ; 10 % de la valeur ajoutée représentent 75 % des émissions de CO2. Cette forte concentration est en grande partie tirée par des effets sectoriels ; la métallurgie, la chimie, les minéraux métalliques (comme le ciment), et le papier/carton sont les secteurs les plus intenses en CO2. Deux grands régimes de tarification effective du CO2 cohabitent dans l'industrie : celle des établissements soumis au marché du carbone (SCEQE, 70 % des émissions), dont la tarification effective augmente avec le temps ; et celle des établissements hors SCEQE (30 % des émissions), gelée de 2018 à 2024. En 2019, la tarification effective du CO2 des entreprises les plus émettrices est plus faible (31€/tCO2e) que celle des entreprises les moins émettrices (47€/tCO2e). En 2022, elle est plus élevée (84€/tCO2e contre 60€/tCO2e). L'allocation de quotas gratuits, dont le volume représente, en 2022, 90 % des émissions réalisées par le secteur industriel, abaisse considérablement le poids effectif du marché carbone pour les entreprises qui y sont soumises. Par leur ciblage implicite, les dispositifs fiscaux sans visée environnementale peuvent avoir un effet sur les émissions industrielles totales. En 2019, le niveau de la contribution économique territoriale (les « impôts de production », fortement allégés dans le plan France Relance) est substantiellement plus élevé pour les 10 % des entreprises les plus intenses en CO2 (3 % de la valeur ajoutée), que pour les 10 % les moins intenses (1, 2 %). Une suppression de ces impôts bénéficie donc davantage aux entreprises très émettrices. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04439232 |
| By: | Matthew Fisher-Post (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This article builds and analyzes a new database on the distributional incidence of taxes and transfers in 151 countries from 1980 to 2019. Our estimates allocate the entirety of tax revenue and public expenditure to individuals, combining household surveys, national accounts, government budgets, tax simulators, and existing fiscal incidence studies. We establish five main findings. (1) Tax-and-transfer systems always reduce inequality, but with large variations. (2) About 90% of these variations are driven by transfers, while only 10% come from taxes. (3) Redistribution rises with development, but this is entirely due to transfers; tax progressivity is uncorrelated with per capita income. (4) Redistribution has increased in most world regions, except in Africa and Eastern Europe, where it has stagnated. (5) About 80% of variations in posttax inequality are driven by differences in pretax inequality ("predistribution"), while 20% are driven by the direct effect of taxes and transfers ("redistribution"). Countries with higher redistribution display lower levels of pretax inequality, however, pointing to a potentially large role of redistributive policies in indirectly shaping the distribution of market incomes. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04423529 |
| By: | Nobumichi Teramura (Universiti Brunei Darussalam); Luke Nottage (The University of Sidney); Bruno Jetin (Universiti Brunei Darussalam, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | In parallel with their strong economic growth, Asian jurisdictions have scaled up campaigns against bribery and other illegal misconduct by foreign investors by adopting international anti-corruption frameworks. Nonetheless, corruption remains common in many places and there is also still a lack of consensus on the influence of corruption and illegality over foreign direct investment (FDI), as well as in investor–state arbitration cases. There is also a paucity of literature considering how Asian countries have dealt with such serious misconduct by foreign investors. The foregoing chapters have started to fill the gaps, finding that there are some ‘Asian approaches' to corruption and bribery in investment arbitrations: some individual jurisdictions have started to address the issues of corruption and illegality through treaty (re)drafting and/or investment disputes. However, a uniform Asian approach towards corruption and illegality in investment arbitration has not yet been established. Thus, this chapter proposes a roadmap for a more harmonised regional approach to corruption and illegality in Asian investment arbitration. It recommends that Asia should (1) establish a forum for all jurisdictions to discuss corruption and other serious misconduct involved in FDI, (2) develop more unified rules on corruption and illegality specifically in Asian investment arbitration and (3) consider creating an independent institution or permanent court to better handle Asian investment disputes—not necessarily limited to allegations of corruption and illegality. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Bribery, International trade and investment agreements, Arbitration, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04554334 |
| By: | Hammond, Peter J (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Quantum randomness evidently transcends the classical framework of random variables defined on a single comprehensive Kolmogorov probability space. One prominent example is the quantum double-slit experiment due to Feynman (1951, 1966). A related non-quantum example, inspired by Boole (1862) and Vorobev (1962), has three two-valued random variables X, Y and Z, where the pairs X; Y and X ; Z are perfectly correlated, yet Y ; Z are perfectly anti-correlated. Such examples can be accommodated using a "multi-measurable" space with several different algebras of measurable events. This concept due to Vorobev (1962) allows construction of : 1) a measurable metaspace whose elements combine a point in the original sample space with a variable "contextual" Boolean algebra ; 2) a parametric family of probability metaspaces, each of which is a Kolmogorov probability space that represents a two-stage stochastic process where a random choice from the original sample space is preceded by the random choice of a contextual Boolean algebra in the multi-measurable space. Subsequent work will explore how quantum experimental results can be described using a quantum measurement tree with one or more preparation nodes where an experimental configuration is determined that governs the probability distribution of relevant quantum observables. |
| Keywords: | Quantum measurement tree ; quantum challenge ; double-slit ; experiment ; quantum contexts ; multi-measurable space ; measurable metaspace ; multi-probability space ; probability metaspace. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wcreta:90 |
| By: | Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sergei Guriev (Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Andrei Markevich (New Economic School) |
| Abstract: | This survey discusses recent developments in the growing literature on the Russian economic history of the 19th and 20th centuries. Using novel data and modern empirical methods, this research generates new insights and provides important lessons for development economics and political economy. We organize the discussion around four strands of this literature. First, we summarize and put in comparative perspective research on the long-term trends in economic development and living standards, which shows that throughout history Russia significantly underperformed advanced economies. We also compile reliable quantifications of the human cost of Stalin's dictatorship. Second, we discuss new studies of imperial Russia that partially confirm Gerschenkron's classic conjecture on the institutional explanation for Russia's relatively low level of economic development and on the causes of the revolution. The third strand of the literature focuses on the Soviet period and explains its slowdown over time and the eventual collapse of the system by the command economy's inability to provide incentives to individual agents. The fourth strand documents the long-term economic, social, and political consequences of large-scale historical experiments that took place during both the imperial and the Soviet periods. We conclude by discussing the lessons from these four strands of the literature and highlight open questions for future research. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04316019 |
| By: | Madden, David J. |
| Abstract: | There is broad recognition today that there is a link between the crisis of social reproduction and the housing problem. But their precise relationship is not always clear. This paper is an attempt to clarify their connection. Housing, this paper argues, is not merely the location or container of the crisis of social reproduction. Rather, there are elements of the contemporary housing system which intensify and shape the crisis of social reproduction. Drawing on feminist political economy and critical housing research, this paper identifies four major pathways by which the housing system exacerbates the crisis of social reproduction: depletion, disruption, redomestication, and recommodification. It also considers housing as a site for repoliticising social reproduction. Ultimately, the paper argues that a complete account of the housing question cannot ignore social reproduction as a political‐economic process. |
| Keywords: | social reproduction; housing; housing crisis; housing politics; political economy of housing |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126344 |
| By: | Aurélie Ringeval-Deluze (CRIEG - Centre de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Economie Gestion - MSH-URCA - Maison des Sciences Humaines de Champagne-Ardenne - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, REGARDS - Recherches en Economie Gestion Agroressources Durabilité et Santé - CRIEG - Centre de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Economie Gestion - MSH-URCA - Maison des Sciences Humaines de Champagne-Ardenne - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne) |
| Abstract: | In a context of strong evolution of ecologic concerns, we study the motivations and obstacles of champagne producers to the environmental transition and certification through the prism of the value chain. We highlight the individual strategies at work. We also raise the difficulties inherent to organic certification, which is not adapted to the constraints of champagne production. Finally, we identify levers of action in order to better take into account the specificities of the industry and thus favour the transition. |
| Abstract: | Dans un contexte de forte évolution des préoccupations écologiques, cet article présente les motivations et freins des producteurs champenois à la transition environnementale et à la certification au prisme de la chaîne de valeur. Il met en lumière les stratégies individuelles à l'oeuvre. Il soulève également les difficultés inhérentes à la certification biologique, peu adaptée aux contraintes liées à la production de champagne. Enfin, il identifie des leviers d'action permettant de mieux prendre en compte les spécificités de la filière et ainsi favoriser la transition. |
| Keywords: | Value chain, environmental strategy, environmental certification, organic viticulture, champagne industry, Chaîne de valeur stratégie environnementale certification environnementale viticulture biologique filière champagne JEL Codes : L1 L66 M31 Q57 R11 Value chain environmental strategy environmental certification organic viticulture champagne industry, Chaîne de valeur, stratégie environnementale, certification environnementale, viticulture biologique, filière champagne JEL Codes : L1, L66, M31, Q57, R11 Value chain |
| Date: | 2024–01–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04384564 |
| By: | Dorothée Brécard (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | How do environmental information and awareness interact to improve environmental quality by changing consumer behavior and firm strategies? This article provides theoretical insights using an original differentiation model within a general framework whose specific cases have been studied previously. On the demand side, only informed consumers differentiate brown from green product quality, while uninformed consumers consider these perfect substitutes. Moreover, all informed consumers value the green product and devalue the brown product as a result of an aversion effect but are heterogeneous in their environmental awareness. On the supply side, two firms offer different environmental qualities and compete on price. We consider two types of environmental campaigns: one that increases the number of informed consumers and one that increases the environmental awareness of informed consumers. We show that these campaigns crucially determine three market configurations: segmented; fragmented, with a brown product that appeals to both uninformed consumers and a fraction of informed consumers; and covered. Assuming that the greenest consumer behavior is abstention, we find that both campaigns do not always lead to better environmental quality; that is, a situation in which all consumers are informed and some highly environmentally aware is not necessarily the greenest situation. Depending on the aversion effect, the budget of the campaign organizer, and their relative cost-effectiveness, information and awareness-raising campaigns must be carefully combined to achieve the best possible environmental quality. |
| Keywords: | Information campaign, NGO campaign, Environmental awareness, Environmental quality, Vertical product differentiation |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04883877 |
| By: | Mr. Atilla Arda; Jan Nolte |
| Abstract: | The technical note and manual "Sibling Rivalry in the Financial Safety Net, " authored by Atilla Arda and Jan Nolte, examines the governance structures essential critical for effective bank resolution and deposit insurance functions. Considering the vulnerabilities exposed during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the note emphasizes the interconnectedness of these two critical functions, both of which aim to safeguard depositors and maintain financial stability. The authors discuss various institutional arrangements, highlighting the choice between integrating both functions within existing agencies or establishing new entities. The note then identifies potential conflicts of interest among resolution authorities, deposit insurance systems, other safety net participants such as central banks and supervisory agencies, and the financial sector. These potential conflicts underscore the necessity of robust governance frameworks to address these challenges and ensure autonomy, operational independence, and accountability of the two functions. The note emphasizes the need for strong legal protections for individuals in charge of resolution and deposit insurance, ensuring they can take decisive actions during crises. By exploring best practices and case studies, including Denmark's integrated framework, the authors provide valuable insights into optimizing institutional and governance arrangements by integrating the deposit insurance function within the resolution authority. This could support effective cooperation among authorities which is vital for creating resilient financial safety nets. |
| Keywords: | deposit insurance; bank resolution; crisis preparedness; crisis management; financial crisis; financial stability; governance; independence; autonomy |
| Date: | 2025–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imftnm:2025/005 |
| By: | Fitzgerald, Jack (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Researchers applying regression discontinuity design (RDD) often test for endogenous running variable (RV) manipulation around treatment cutoffs, but misinterpret statistically insignificant RV manipulation as evidence of negligible RV manipulation. I introduce novel procedures that can provide statistically significant evidence that RV manipulation around a cutoff is bounded beneath practically negligible levels. The procedures augment classic RV density tests with an equivalence testing framework, along with bootstrap methods for (cluster-)robust inference. I apply these procedures to replication data from 36 RDD publications, conducting 45 equivalence-based RV manipulation tests. Over 44% of RV density discontinuities at the cutoff cannot be significantly bounded beneath a 50% upward jump. Obtaining equivalence testing failure rates beneath 5% requires arguing that a 350% upward RV density jump at the cutoff is practically equal to zero. My results imply that meaningful RV manipulation around treatment cutoffs cannot be ruled out in many published RDD papers, and that standard tests frequently misclassify the practical significance of RV manipulation. I provide research guidelines and help researchers conduct more credible equivalence-based manipulation testing in future RDD research. The lddtest estimation routine is available in R, Stata, and Python. |
| Date: | 2025–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:metaar:2dgrp_v1 |