|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Hafedh Bouakez; Takashi Kano |
| Abstract: | The neo-Fisherian effect typically refers to the short-run increase in inflation associated with a permanent increase in the nominal interest rate. This positive comovement between the two variables is commonly viewed — and empirically identified — as being conditional on permanent monetary shocks, which are often interpreted as permanent shifts in the inflation target. Such a view, however, implies that inflation and the nominal interest rate share a common stochastic trend, a property that is hardly supported by the data, especially during episodes of stable inflation. Moreover, in countries that have adopted formal inflation targeting, changes in the inflation target occur very infrequently, if at all, calling into question the interpretation of inflation target shocks identified within standard time-series models based on quarterly data. In this paper, we propose a novel empirical strategy to detect the neo-Fisherian effect, which we apply to U.S. data. Our procedure relaxes the commonly used identifying restriction that inflation and the nominal interest rate are cointegrated, and, more importantly, is agnostic about the nature of the shock that gives rise to a neo-Fisherian effect. We find that the identified shock has no permanent effect on the nominal interest rate or inflation, but moves them in the same direction for a number of quarters. It also accounts for the bulk of their variability at any given forecasting horizon, while explaining a non-negligible fraction of output fluctuations at business-cycle frequencies. Using Bayesian techniques, we show that the data favors the interpretation of the identified shock as a liquidity preference shock rather than an inflation target shock. |
| Keywords: | identification, inflation, liquidity preference, neo-Fisherian effect |
| JEL: | E12 E23 E31 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-49 |
| By: | Bank of Japan (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | On May 21, 2024, the second workshop on the "Review of Monetary Policy from a Broad Perspective, " entitled "Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy over the Past 25 Years, " was held at the Bank of Japan's Head Office. At the workshop, economists and financial and economic experts participated in a lively discussion. Session 1 provided a review of economic and price developments in Japan since the late 1990s and a presentation on recent changes in the environment. Participants then discussed issues such as the impact of "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing" on the economy and prices, the reasons why behavior and a mindset based on the assumption that wages and prices would not increase easily had become entrenched as the norm in society, and whether the norm should be judged as changing. Session 2 provided a presentation on the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy through the "expectations channel" under the effective lower bound on interest rates and on the economic implications of moderate price increases. Participants then discussed issues such as the mechanisms of inflation expectations formation, the evaluation of the effects of monetary policy on expectations, and the consistency of theoretical views on the benefits of moderate price increases with reality. In the panel discussion in Session 3, participants started by discussing reasons why the norm had formed and recent changes in the norm. Participants highlighted reasons for the formation of the norm since the late 1990s, such as the fact that maintaining employment had become the top priority, leading to a suppression of wages, and the fact that price competition continued to be severe. Meanwhile, while one view was that the norm was changing due to factors such as the growing shortage of labor, another view was that there had been no major structural changes in the labor market and that the recent increases in wages and prices may have been a temporary phenomenon caused by exogenous shocks. In addition, panelists reviewed the lessons learned from the monetary policy of the past 25 years. With regard to unconventional monetary policy, some argued that it had had positive effects such as improving the output gap even under the effective lower bound on interest rates, while others pointed to the difficulty of influencing expectations and the side effects of prolonged monetary easing on productivity. |
| Date: | 2024–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojron:ron240809a |
| By: | Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez; Saiz, Lorena; Stoevsky, Grigor; Tóth, Máté; Warmedinger, Thomas; Grigoraș, Veaceslav |
| Abstract: | The monitoring and analysis of the business cycle is a central element of inputs to monetary policy decision-making. This report contributes to the analysis of business cycles in the euro area in three dimensions. First, in terms of business cycle dating, it proposes automated procedures to characterise the business cycle situation of the euro area and its main components, across countries and sectors. Second, it investigates how business cycle synchronisation has evolved over the last 20 years. Third, it analyses business cycle drivers from several perspectives, including the financial and international dimension, interconnectedness, demand and supply. It also features an early analysis of the economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather than reaching strong conclusions on the history of the euro area business cycle, the primary aim of the report is to promote sound methods and approaches that are part of ongoing enhancements of the analytical infrastructure designed to analyse hard-to-ascertain questions on the nature and characteristics of euro area business cycle dynamics. JEL Classification: C10, E32, E37 |
| Keywords: | business cycle dating, characteristics, drivers, synchronisation |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024354 |
| By: | Ben Knox; Yannick Timmer |
| Abstract: | We study investors’ perceptions of inflation through the lens of a high-frequency event study and document that they have a stagflationary view of the world. In response to higher-than-expected inflation, investors expect firms’ nominal cash flows to remain stagnant while discount rates increase, resulting in lower stock prices. Both the equity risk premium and nominal risk-free yields rise. However, longer-term real yields remain unchanged, and policy-sensitive real yields even decline, with increases in nominal yields offset by larger increases in inflation expectations. Consistent with a stagflationary view in which investors interpret inflation as a marginal cost shock, investors expect firms with low market power to suffer larger declines in cash flows. Cash flow expectations of equity investors are aligned with those of professional earnings analysts, both in the time series and across the market power distribution. |
| Keywords: | inflation, stock returns, stagnant cash flows, market power |
| JEL: | G12 E31 E44 L11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11236 |
| By: | Marijn A. Bolhuis; Jakree Koosakul; Mr. Neil Shenai |
| Abstract: | Since the Global Financial Crisis, fiscal policy in advanced economies has become more “active” – that is, increasingly unresponsive to rising debt levels. This paper explores tensions between active fiscal and monetary policies by introducing the concept of “fiscal r-star, ” which is the real interest rate required to stabilize debt levels when the primary balance is set exogenously, output is growing at potential, and inflation is at target. It is proposed that the difference between monetary r-star and fiscal r-star—referred to as the “fiscal monetary gap”—is a proxy for fiscal-monetary policy tensions. An analysis of over 140 years of data from 16 advanced economies shows that larger fiscal-monetary gaps are associated with rising debt levels, higher inflation, financial repression, lower real returns on bonds and cash, with elevated risks of future debt, inflation, currency, housing, and systemic crises. Current estimates indicate that fiscal-monetary tensions are at historic highs. Given the tepid growth outlook, growth-enhancing reforms and fiscal consolidation, among other policy adjustments, may be needed to attenuate fiscal-monetary tensions over time. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal r-star; fiscal-monetary gap; fiscal-monetary interactions; fiscal dominance; inflation; fiscal consolidation; monetary policy; fiscal policy; policy space; financial repression; debt liquidation |
| Date: | 2024–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/174 |
| By: | Jia, Yilei; Wang, Gangyi |
| Abstract: | China is one of the countries with the richest Animal genetic resources (AnGR) in the world, and also the largest producer and consumer of pigs.The pig industry is huge, but more than 90% of pork consumption relies on imports, while local pig breeds are neglected, and many of them are even on the verge of extinction.In order to study the utilization status of local pig breeds and promote the protection、development, and utilization, this study conducted an in-depth analysis of the utilization status of local pigs by combing the utilization status and cost-benefit analysis.The results showed that the overall population of Min pig has increased and has been extensively used in production. However, due to the high input cost and low output income, the income is negative and production efficiency is low. Therefore, the pigs have not been fully and effectively utilized by the people.The study further observed that in the general commercialization environment over the years, a range of incentives and protection measures have achieved a balance. This has resulted in a certain level of balance between policy implementation and commercial development, leading to an increase in the number of pigs and improving the situation of endangered varieties. The findings of this study provide a theoretical foundation for the preservation, development, and sustainable utilization of local pig genetic resources. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344287 |
| By: | Jos\'e A. Tapia Granados; Edward L. Ionides |
| Abstract: | Data for many nations show a long-run increase, over many decades, of income, indexed by GDP per capita, and population health, indexed by mortality or life expectancy at birth (LEB). However, the short-run and long-run relationships between these variables have been interpreted in different ways, and many controversies are still open. Some authors have claimed that the causal relationships between population health and income can be discovered using cointegration models. We show, however, that empirically testing a cointegration relation between LEB and GDP per capita is not a sound method to infer a causal link between health and income. For a given country it is easy to find computer-generated data or time series of real observations, related or unrelated to the country, that according to standard methods are also cointegrated with the country's LEB. More generally, given a trending time series, it is easy to find other series, observational or artificial, that appear cointegrated with it. Thus, standard cointegration methodology cannot distinguish whether cointegration relationships are spurious or causal. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.15755 |
| By: | Krahé, Max |
| Abstract: | Seit einigen Jahren wird diskutiert, wie Europas Souveränität gestärkt werden kann. Dieses Papier bringt drei Punkte in die Debatte ein. Erstens: Es gibt einen guten Grund, weswegen diese Absicht seit 2017 intensiv debattiert wird. Europas jüngere politische Ordnung, die Maastricht-EU, zielte auf die Überwindung von Souveränität, nicht auf deren Stärkung. In den 1990ern war dieses Ziel vielleicht plausibel. In einer Welt von Krieg und Industriepolitik, Putin und Trump ist es überholt. Ein Paradigmenwechsel ist notwendig. Souveränität liegt jenseits von Maastricht. Zweitens: Die bisherige Souveränitätsdebatte berührt wichtige Felder, würde aber von einer engeren Verbindung mit institutionellen Reformdebatten profitieren. Ohne klare Entscheidungsstrukturen führt auch eine starke materielle Basis weder zu Selbstbestimmung noch zu Sicherheit. Drittens: Eine Klärung von Entscheidungsstrukturen ist politisch herausfordernd. Um hier Fortschritte zu erzielen, liegen ehrliche Kuhhandel nahe: das Verschieben, Teilen oder Abgeben von Kompetenzen aus kalkuliertem Eigeninteresse. Solche Kuhhandel sind komplex und werden erschwert durch Vertrauensdefizite auf verschiedenen Ebenen. Zivilgesellschaft und Wissenschaft könnten einen konstruktiven Beitrag leisten, indem sie mögliche Elemente solcher Verhandlungen ausleuchten, insbesondere in Bereichen mit stabilen mitgliedsstaatlichen Präferenzen, zum Beispiel Energie, Finanzen oder Verteidigung. |
| Keywords: | Souveränität, Europa, Fiskal, Energie, Sicherheit |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:300903 |
| By: | Sangyup Choi (Department of Economics, Yonsei University); Inkee Jang (Department of Economics, The Catholic University of Korea); Kee-Youn Kang (Department of Economics, University of Liverpool); Hyunpyung Kim (Department of Economics, Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | Leveraging the universe of transaction-level data from the Korean tri-party repo market, we examine how repo contract terms interact with collateral quality. We find that both the haircut and the interest rate increase with collateral risk, consistent with previous findings. However, conditioning on the same collateral quality, we uncover the trade-off between the haircut and the interest rate: A 1% point increase in the interest rate is associated with a 1.3% point reduction in the haircut. Moreover, the rate at which the interest rate substitutes the haircut decreases in market uncertainty, suggesting that the relative importance of insurance instruments increases with default risk. We theoretically show that the interaction between lenders' incentives to acquire information about collateral quality and borrowers' incentives to default opportunistically in a collateralized debt market is key to rationalizing the positive (negative) unconditional (conditional) relationship between the haircut and the interest rate. |
| Keywords: | Repo market, collateralized debt, haircut, collateral quality, costly information acquisition, uncertainty |
| JEL: | D53 D8 E44 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202411 |
| By: | Ariza Ruiz, Efrén Danilo; Garza, Nestor |
| Abstract: | We document and analyze the emergence and consolidation of neoliberalism in higher education in economics in Colombia. The research focuses on four interrelated categories through which the neoliberal ideology changed the scientific field of economics by replacing endogenously developed analytical traditions during the 1980s -1990s: 1) homogenization of curricula; 2) neoclassical mathematization; 3) use of textbooks; and 4) quantitative assessment (scientometrics) of academic quality. The results show how a generation of economists combined their networks of social capital and legitimacy from international academic connections, to simultaneously impose their worldview in academia, the public administration, and private sector. Our analyses highlight the transfer of the neoliberal values to the education field through the concepts of quality assessment and scientometrics, which institutionalized the exercise of power to discipline intellectual inquiries and scholarship. |
| Keywords: | Higher Education, Economists, Research Policy, Cultural Capital, Sociological Studies, Neoclassical Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:300688 |
| By: | KAWAKUBO Takafumi; SUZUKI Takafumi |
| Abstract: | The rising trend in markups documented in the United States and many other countries posed concerns in recent decades. This paper estimates firm-level markups using Japanese data during 2000--2021. First, we find that the markups overall have barely changed in the past 20 years. However, when we restrict the sample to the manufacturing sector, the markups decreased between 2000 and 2009 and increased between 2010 and 2021. There appears to be little change over the period of COVID-19. Second, we additionally exploit firm-level buyer-supplier linkage information to study the relationship between buyer and supplier markups. Our findings show that there is positive and significant correlation between markups of firms on both sides of the transactions. This result suggests the potential pass-through of prices along the supply chains. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24068 |
| By: | Carla Rowold (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | While research emphasized the risk of gendered sample selection bias among the elderly decades ago, the empirical literature on old-age inequalities remains largely unaware of it. This research note addresses this issue by investigating gendered sample selectivity for individuals aged 65 or older employing two common sample criteria: self-reported retirement status and pension receipt in countries covered by the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Findings show that more than half of older women are excluded when these criteria are applied. Gender selection bias varies widely across countries and is less pronounced in post-socialist or social-democratic welfare states. Visualizing work trajectories by sample status reveals that women with long unpaid care work periods and men with high self-employment, unemployment, and extended education levels are particularly likely to be excluded. Studies employing such sample criteria risk underestimating gender inequalities in pensions, health, and life satisfaction. The implications are severe for Southern, conservative, and liberal welfare states, and for cross-country comparisons, where sample bias often goes undetected due to its variability across contexts. While this article cannot offer a universal recommendation for sample definitions, it aims to promote less biased sample conceptualizations in studies of the elderly population. |
| Keywords: | bias, gender, life cycle, old age, pension schemes, retirement, retirement pensions, samples |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-025 |
| By: | Rosa Sanchis-Guarner; Nikodem Szumilo; Antoine Vernet |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of improved rail access on entrepreneurship rates in England and Wales. We use data from the Census spanning 2001, 2011, and 2021 to analyse self-employment rates in granular geographic areas of around 200 residents. Specifically, we study how they respond to changes in the distance to the nearest train station occurring due to 56 new station openings. We find that all else equal, moving 1 km further away from a station reduces self-employment rates by 0.12 percentage points, with the effect dissipating beyond 7 km. Secondary results suggest that access to rail makes it easier to become self-employed while not making it more attractive compared to employment. Our findings suggest that rail infrastructure improvements can support local entrepreneurship and economic activity, contributing to regional development and reducing economic inequality. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, rail, self-employment |
| JEL: | L26 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11227 |
| By: | Mgomezulu, Wisdom Richard; Machila, Kennedy; Edriss, Abdi-Khalil; Pangapanga-Phiri, Innocent |
| Abstract: | Different scholars have modelled the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) with a goal of improving farmer’s adaptive capacity to climate change. Nonetheless, through the conventional way of defining adoption decisions as one-time survey decisions, many scholars have failed to understand inconsistencies in adoption decisions and dis-adoption of such practices. Through a survey of 2100 maize farming households, the current study employed multivariate probit models to understand and compare one-time survey season adoption decisions and sustained (consistent) adoption decisions. The study notes that dis-adoption rates of SAPs range from 20 to 27 percent. As such, the determinants of dis-adoption were estimated to build a case for going beyond one-time adoption survey decisions. Furthermore, the study employed a Cox Proportional hazard model to understand the relative risk to adoption of Sustainable Agricultural Practices over time. The findings reveal the need for a modelling paradigm shift in understanding adoption decisions for sustainable benefits. Lastly, the findings reveal the need for intensifying knowledge and information dissemination on SAPs through field demonstrations, extension visits, trainings and radio programs in order to reduce dis-adoption and ensure sustained adoption. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344289 |
| By: | Bromwich, Talitha; White, Thomas; Bouchez, Alice; Hawkins, Isobel; zu Ermgassen, Sophus; Bull, Joseph W.; Bartlett, Harriet; Bennun, Leon; Biggs, Elizabeth; Booth, Hollie (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | The use of Life cycle assessment (LCA) methods is rapidly expanding as a means of estimating the biodiversity impacts of organisations across complex value chains. However, these methods have limitations and substantial uncertainties, which are rarely communicated in the results of LCAs. Drawing upon the ecological and LCA literature on uncertainty and two worked examples of biodiversity footprinting, we outline where different types of uncertainty occur across multiple stages of the LCA process, from input data to the choice of biodiversity metric. Some uncertainties are epistemic, incorporating structural (e.g., the types of pressures included in models), parametric (e.g., uncertainty around conversion factors), and measurement uncertainty, as well as natural variability, stochasticity, and information gaps. Other uncertainties are linguistic (e.g., ambiguity around definitions of biodiversity) and decision-based (e.g., choices made when matching company data to inventory categories). We provide suggestions for understanding, reducing, and navigating uncertainties when using LCAs for biodiversity footprinting. Understanding the risks posed by these uncertainties, weighing them against the costs of inappropriate action or inaction, and ensuring decisions are robust to these uncertainties, is vital for designing effective biodiversity strategies. With a full understanding of these uncertainties, opportunities exist to utilise LCAs for high-level risk screening to prioritise action and highlight areas where focused effort and more granular data are needed, to track progress towards abating impacts year-on-year and identify low risk actions. However, biodiversity strategies should not be based solely on absolute LCA impact results. Instead, LCAs should be used alongside other approaches to guide location-specific and robust action to deliver a Nature Positive future. |
| Date: | 2024–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:th8j6 |
| By: | Soe, T.T.; Myint, T.; Aye, H.M.; Moh, M.; Hnin, C.H. |
| Abstract: | The health crisis has posed a threat not only to people’s health but also to their well-being after the COVID-19 pandemic. It has prompted a shift in dietary patterns and drinking habits based on people’s preference toward healthier behaviour and items with affordable prices. The objective of this research is to assess the drinking water and beverage intake among selected households in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar. Based on the selected respondents (n=400), majority of selected households were from the public sector, with a high level of education. On the average, food costs constituted 70% of the total expenditure and 60% of the income. An observed intake is that a significant percentage of households allocate spending to drinking water, coffee, and tea mix, excluding alcohol. In contrast to the average monthly per capita consumption, drinking water, coffee and tea mix and alcohol are commonly consumed. The commonly purified drinking water among the selected respondents leans toward a healthy food system and signifies a positive preference. Consequently, it is proposed that preferences and for various types of drinking water and coffee and tea mix be strengthened to meet local demand, thereby enhancing household health and nutrition. This behavioural and preference could also accelerate a healthy lifestyle for everyone. For further research and development, the accessibility of purified drinking water and beverages could be promoted to improve a healthy lifestyle and sustainable intake. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea24:344454 |
| By: | Marc Bénard (EREN [CRESS - U1153 / UMR_A 1125] - Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team | Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A 1125) - Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Statistics | Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistiques - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Margaux Robert (EREN [CRESS - U1153 / UMR_A 1125] - Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team | Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A 1125) - Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Statistics | Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistiques - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Caroline Méjean (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, EREN [CRESS - U1153 / UMR_A 1125] - Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team | Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A 1125) - Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Statistics | Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistiques - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Benjamin Allès (EREN [CRESS - U1153 / UMR_A 1125] - Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team | Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A 1125) - Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Statistics | Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistiques - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot (EREN [CRESS - U1153 / UMR_A 1125] - Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team | Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A 1125) - Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Statistics | Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistiques - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Pauline Paolassini Guesnier (EREN [CRESS - U1153 / UMR_A 1125] - Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team | Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A 1125) - Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Statistics | Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistiques - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); France Bellisle (EREN [CRESS - U1153 / UMR_A 1125] - Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team | Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A 1125) - Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Statistics | Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistiques - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Fabrice Etilé (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Gérard Reach (Hôpital Avicenne [AP-HP] - AP-HP - Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP)); Serge Hercberg (EREN [CRESS - U1153 / UMR_A 1125] - Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team | Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A 1125) - Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Statistics | Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistiques - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Hôpital Avicenne [AP-HP] - AP-HP - Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP)); Mathilde Touvier (EREN [CRESS - U1153 / UMR_A 1125] - Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team | Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A 1125) - Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Statistics | Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistiques - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sandrine Péneau (EREN [CRESS - U1153 / UMR_A 1125] - Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team | Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CRESS (U1153 / UMR_A 1125) - Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Statistics | Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistiques - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Objectives: Consideration of future consequences (CFC) distinguishes individuals who adopt behaviors based on immediate needs and concerns from individuals who consider the future consequences of their behaviors. We aimed to assess the association between CFC and diet, and testing the mediating role of food choice motives on this relationship. Design: Individuals (age≥18 years) completed the CFC-12 questionnaire in 2014, at least three 24-h dietary records, and a food choice motive questionnaire. A multiple mediator analysis allowed to assess the mediating effect of food choice motives on the cross-sectional association between CFC and diet, adjusted for socio-demographic factors. Setting: Data from the NutriNet-Santé cohort study. Participants: 27, 330 participants. Results: CFC was associated with all food choice motives (P < 0.001), with the strongest positive associations for avoidance for environmental reasons, absence of contaminants and health motives, and the strongest negative associations for innovation and convenience). Positive total effects were found between CFC and the consumption of healthy food groups (fruits and vegetables, whole-grain foods, legumes); and negative total effects for alcohol, meat and poultry and processed meat (P < 0.001). CFC was positively associated with diet quality (P < 0.001). Across food groups, major mediators of these relationships were higher health (8.4-32.6%), higher environmental (13.7-22.1 %) and lower innovation (7.3-25.1 %) concerns. Conclusions: CFC was associated with healthier dietary intake, essentially mediated by a greater motivation of future-oriented participants for self-centered and altruistic outcomes, including health and environment. Focusing on the awareness of future benefits in public health interventions might lead to healthier dietary behaviors. |
| Keywords: | Consideration of future consequences, Food intake, Food choice motives, Adults, France |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04447169 |
| By: | KAWAKUBO Takafumi; SUZUKI Takafumi |
| Abstract: | Recently, supply chains have been disrupted worldwide. Using 12-year panel data on buyer-supplier linkages in Japan, we study how the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 affected firm performance and their supply chains. We focus on buyer firms located outside the disaster area that were not directly hit by the earthquake and compare those firms with and without suppliers inside the disaster area before 2011. Exploiting difference-in-differences designs, we first find that treated firms, on average, were not differentially hurt. This is confirmed with various firm performance indicators including sales, employment, profit, investment, and productivity measures. Second, we find that treated firms increased the share of suppliers located outside the disaster area, which suggests that they substantially adjusted their supplier relationships. Moreover, we show that treated firms disproportionately accumulated new suppliers closer to their headquarters. The results suggest that it is important for firms to swiftly adjust their supplier network when they face huge, sizeable shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24067 |
| By: | Lim Hao Shen Keith |
| Abstract: | In portfolio risk minimization, the inverse covariance matrix of returns is often unknown and has to be estimated in practice. This inverse covariance matrix also prescribes the hedge trades in which a stock is hedged by all the other stocks in the portfolio. In practice with finite samples, however, multicollinearity gives rise to considerable estimation errors, making the hedge trades too unstable and unreliable for use. By adopting ideas from current methodologies in the existing literature, we propose 2 new estimators of the inverse covariance matrix, one which relies only on the l2 norm while the other utilizes both the l1 and l2 norms. These 2 new estimators are classified as shrinkage estimators in the literature. Comparing favorably with other methods (sample-based estimation, equal-weighting, estimation based on Principal Component Analysis), a portfolio formed on the proposed estimators achieves substantial out-of-sample risk reduction and improves the out-of-sample risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio, particularly in high-dimensional settings. Furthermore, the proposed estimators can still be computed even in instances where the sample covariance matrix is ill-conditioned or singular |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.08748 |
| By: | Roussel, Yannick; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | The paper delves into the intricate relationship between economic growth, tourism arrivals, and climate change, focusing specifically on the European economy over the period 1990-2019 using panel data analysis. The empirical framework examines the interplay between these variables and sheds light on their implications for environmental sustainability and economic development. The econometric analysis reveals several noteworthy findings. Firstly, the equation assessing economic growth underscores the positive correlation between tourist arrivals, energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, openness to trade, and economic growth. These results align with the prevailing literature, highlighting the multifaceted drivers of economic expansion in the context of tourism and trade. However, the study diverges from conventional wisdom by challenging the notion of a strictly positive correlation between tourism and climate change. While previous research predominantly suggests a positive association, our findings suggest an alternative hypothesis, wherein tourist arrivals exhibit a negative correlation with climate change indicators. This nuanced perspective underscores the complex dynamics at play and emphasizes the need for further investigation into the environmental implications of tourism. Furthermore, the application of fixed effects and GMM-system techniques provides additional insights into the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions. Income per capita and energy consumption emerge as significant drivers of CO2 emissions, highlighting the role of economic prosperity and energy consumption patterns in shaping environmental outcomes. Interestingly, tourism arrivals and squared income per capita demonstrate a negative correlation with CO2 emissions, suggesting that higher levels of tourism and income per capita may mitigate environmental pressures. Additionally, the analysis of tourism arrival determinants reveals that income per capita, openness to trade, and energy consumption exert a positive effect on tourism arrivals. These findings underscore the role of economic prosperity, trade openness, and energy infrastructure in driving tourist inflows, highlighting the interconnectedness of economic and tourism dynamics. The paper contributes to the growing body of literature on the nexus between economic growth, tourism, and climate change, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders. By elucidating the complex relationships between these variables, the study informs evidence-based policy interventions aimed at promoting sustainable tourism practices and mitigating the environmental impact of economic growth. Ultimately, a holistic approach that balances economic development objectives with environmental stewardship is essential for fostering long-term prosperity and sustainability in the European economy and beyond. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Energy Consumption, GMM-System Techniques, Income Per Capita |
| JEL: | C33 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121529 |
| By: | Carlo Nicolini; Monisha Gopalan; Jacopo Staiano; Bruno Lepri |
| Abstract: | We present the first application of modern Hopfield networks to the problem of portfolio optimization. We performed an extensive study based on combinatorial purged cross-validation over several datasets and compared our results to both traditional and deep-learning-based methods for portfolio selection. Compared to state-of-the-art deep-learning methods such as Long-Short Term Memory networks and Transformers, we find that the proposed approach performs on par or better, while providing faster training times and better stability. Our results show that Modern Hopfield Networks represent a promising approach to portfolio optimization, allowing for an efficient, scalable, and robust solution for asset allocation, risk management, and dynamic rebalancing. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.17645 |