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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2024‒08‒19
fifty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Julien Pascal |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature examining the consequences of heterogeneity in macroeconomic modeling, especially within the context of monetary and fiscal policy transmission. This review reveals that heterogeneity can significantly alter the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in macroeconomic models and suggests possible advantages from collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies. The paper also provides a critical evaluation of various analytical and numerical methods to solve macroeconomic models with heterogeneity, underscoring the need for a careful methodological choice based on specific circumstances. |
| Keywords: | Literature review, Heterogeneity, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomic Modeling, HANK model. |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E62 D31 C61 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp185 |
| By: | Cristiano Cantore; Pascal Meichtry |
| Abstract: | his paper studies the asymmetry in the macroeconomic effects of central bank asset market operations induced by state dependency and the associated role of household heterogeneity. We build a New Keynesian model with borrowers and savers in which quantitative easing and tightening operate through portfolio rebalancing between short-term and long-term government bonds. We highlight the significance of an occasionally binding zero lower bound in explaining a weaker aggregate impact of asset sales relative to asset purchases. In this context, when close to the lower bound, raising the nominal interest rate prior to unwinding quantitative easing mitigates the economic costs of monetary policy normalization. Furthermore, our results imply that household heterogeneity in combination with state dependency amplifies the revealed asymmetry, while household heterogeneity alone does not enhance the aggregate effects of asset market operations. |
| Keywords: | Unconventional Monetary Policy, Quantitative Tightening, Quantitative Easing, Heterogeneous Agents, Zero Lower Bound |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:955 |
| By: | Capasso, Salvatore; Foresti, Pasquale |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the design of monetary and fiscal policies in a currency union by focusing on the capacity to react to symmetric and asymmetric financial shocks. The model is constructed in order to mimic the institutional design adopted for the policy making in the EMU. The paper shows how a currency union set-up like the one adopted by the EMU can easily cope with symmetric financial shocks. However, it shows how in the face of asymmetric shocks more space for fiscal interventions is crucial, especially in more peripheral member countries. |
| Keywords: | financial shocks; monetary union; monetary-fiscal policy; EMU |
| JEL: | E52 E61 F36 |
| Date: | 2024–07–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124371 |
| By: | Barıs Alpaslan; Mevza Kurtulmuslar |
| Abstract: | This paper makes a contribution to the literature in a number of important ways: First, this paper offers a two-period OLG model of endogenous growth that incorporates both meritocracy and social capital: in our theoretical framework, meritocracy can promote social capital. Second, this paper provides a measure of the meritocracy degree to determine the extent to which there is an incidence of nepotism in the society this is because meritocracy is the opposite of nepotism, that is, the lower meritocracy degree, the higher nepotism is or the other way around. Third, this is the first study that has provided a solid evidence base for Turkey in linking the notion of meritocracy with social capital and explaining its implications for long-run growth. To this end, we calibrate our theoretical model based on a combination of theoretical restrictions and empirical observations. We conduct several policy experiments. We first consider an increase in the share of public spending on social capital building activities and infrastructure investment under two scenarios: each increase is financed by a cut in either other items or education. We also run a policy experiment associated with a decrease in the share of non-meritocratic political elites. In general, the findings of our policy experiments show that a higher meritocracy degree can promote social capital and therefore long-run growth. However, when an increase in the share of government spending on either social capital building activities or infrastructure investment is financed by a cut in education, in the benchmark case, the net impacts on long-run growth turn out to be negative or very small due to the trade-off effect because it seems that the cut in the share of government spending on education is detrimental to growth. |
| Keywords: | meritocracy, social capital, political capital, economic growth, Turkey |
| JEL: | D73 J10 J45 O10 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-47 |
| By: | Pawel Doligalski; Luis Rojas |
| Abstract: | We characterize the welfare effects of the informal sector by proposing a decomposition into efficiency and redistribution components. We focus on an economy where a planner wants to redistribute income with taxation and sets the optimal tax scheme. Since the informal sector can limit the taxation possibilities for the government but at the same time provide a shelter against tax distortions for individuals we show that the net welfare effect can be positive or negative. We show that the relative advantage between informal and formal employment across different income levels is the key dimension that shapes the welfare costs of the informal sector. Using the model estimated with Colombian microdata, we show that, conditional on the optimal tax policy, the Colombian shadow economy benefits efficiency at the expense of redistribution. Consequently, the presence of the informal sector reduces welfare only when preferences for redistribution are strong. |
| Keywords: | shadow economy, informal labor market, income taxation, redistribution |
| JEL: | H21 H26 J46 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1452 |
| By: | Werner, Caroline |
| Abstract: | Angesichts des Fachkräftemangels und der steigenden Nachfrage der Arbeitnehmer/-innen nach einem Arbeitsumfeld, welches Privat- und Berufsleben miteinander vereinbart, haben sich flexible Arbeitsformen zu einem weit umfassenden Forschungsthema entwickelt. Bislang gibt es jedoch nur wenige Studien, die sich mit der Flexibilität am Arbeitsplatz im Hochschulmanagement befassen. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die wahrgenommenen Auswirkungen durch die Einführung von Regelungen zur Arbeitszeit- und Arbeitsplatzflexibilität aus Sicht von Führungskräften und Verwaltungsmitarbeiter/-innen der Universität Münster. Mithilfe von Experteninterviews werden die Auswirkungen von Gleitzeitregelungen, Teilzeitbeschäftigung und Home-Office näher beleuchtet. Hinsichtlich der Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf, Work-Life-Balance, Arbeitszufriedenheit, Arbeitsproduktivität sowie Personalrekrutierung und Mitarbeiterbindung werden positive Auswirkungen festgestellt. Doch flexible Arbeitsformen sind eine Herausforderung für die Arbeitsplatzkommunikation und Zusammenarbeit. Eine formelle Definition und transparente Kommunikation der Arbeitsrichtlinien, die Unterstützung seitens der Hochschule und der Führungskräfte sowie eine geeignete IT-Infrastruktur beeinflussen die Beurteilung und Akzeptanz flexibler Arbeitsformen und müssen für eine erfolgreichen Implementierung berücksichtigt werden. |
| Abstract: | In view of the shortage of skilled workers and the increasing demand from employees for a working environment that reconciles private and professional life, flexible forms of work have developed into a wide-ranging research topic. To date, however, there have only been a few studies dealing with workplace flexibility in university management. This study examines the perceived effects of the introduction of regulations on working time and workplace flexibility from the perspective of managers and administrative staff at the University of Münster. With the help of expert interviews, the effects of flextime regulations, part-time employment and working from home are examined in more detail. Positive effects are identified with regard to the compatibility of family and career, work-life balance, job satisfaction, work productivity, staff recruitment and staff retention. However, flexible forms of work pose a challenge for workplace communication and collaboration. A formal definition and transparent communication of work guidelines, support from the university and management as well as a suitable IT infrastructure influence the assessment and acceptance of flexible forms of work and must be considered for a successful implementation. |
| Keywords: | Arbeitsplatzflexibilität, Flexible Arbeitsformen, Führungskräfte, Hochschulmanagement, Personalmanagement |
| JEL: | I21 M12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:300697 |
| By: | Alejandro Fiorito (Economist, Johns Hopkins University); José Juan Ruiz (Chairman, Elcano Royal Institute); Ernesto Talvi (Senior Analyst, Elcano Royal Institute) |
| Abstract: | A widespread notion in European capitals is that Latin America is an economic failure: a highly volatile region, prone to all kind of recurrent crises, and unable to develop and sustain a dynamic of convergence towards the income levels of advanced economies, as the Asian Tigers did. To paraphrase a well-known saying about Brazil, the established perception is that “Latin America is a land of the future and it always will be.” Data shows this view is biased and does not match reality. First, progress in macroeconomic management over the last 20 years has been very significant and the results are notable. An entire Latin American generation has grown up in an environment of low and relatively stable inflation, reasonably sound public finances, and regulatory and supervisory frameworks that have led to the strong financial systems the region has today. One striking achievement is the reduction in the frequency of exchange rate, sovereign debt, and financial crises: from an average of four crises per year between the mid-1970s and the early 2000s to less than one a year in the last 20 years. As a result of this greater macroeconomic stability, Latin America went from being a protagonist—one third of the world’s exchange rate, banking, and debt crises between 1974 and 2003 took place in the region—to just playing a supporting role: only one of every six crises have taken place in Latin America since 2003. Second, income convergence from underdevelopment to development is the exception that proves the rule, as non-convergence is a widespread phenomenon in most emerging markets and developing economies. To judge Latin America’s long-term performance by comparing it with the highly unlikely convergence processes only achieved by Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong in the post-war period is, to say the least, incorrect. The main challenge that Latin America faces is neither macroeconomic management nor trying to achieve the unlikely goal of convergence but consolidating sustainable and inclusive growth. The region’s per capita income has been stagnant for a decade. The prolonged absence of sustained economic growth inevitably results in a situation marked by a distributive competition for resources, which not only fosters social tensions but also diverts valuable sociopolitical resources towards managing these tensions, instead of focusing them on the pursuit of economic growth. |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:697 |
| By: | Chiet-Bing Wong ("Faculty of Accountancy, Finance & Business, Tunku Abdul Rahman University of Management and Technology, Malaysia." Author-2-Name: Tan Sharon @ Rebecca Author-2-Workplace-Name: "Faculty of Accountancy, Finance & Business, Tunku Abdul Rahman University of Management and Technology, Malaysia." Author-3-Name: Karen Esther Tan Author-3-Workplace-Name: "Faculty of Accountancy, Finance & Business, Tunku Abdul Rahman University of Management and Technology, Malaysia." Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - Creating an independent online store presents businesses with an opportunity to cultivate their brand and devoted customer base. To achieve long-term success, it is crucial to build a new customer base and establish initial trust. Prior research has explored various aspects of initial trust and identified factors crucial for businesses in devising strategies to attract customers. However, while some studies have investigated the impact of perceived relative advantage on initial trust, the findings remain inconclusive, leaving unexplored facets. This study aimed to scrutinize how perceived relative advantage influences customers' initial beliefs and intentions to trust an unfamiliar online store retailer. Methodology/Technique - Data gathered from a survey underwent statistical analysis using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Findings - The results revealed that perceived relative advantage significantly and positively impacted both initial trusting beliefs and intention. This research contributes to comprehending the relationship between initial trust and perceived relative advantage, especially in an underexamined context in Malaysia. Novelty - The study developed and validated a research model that extends the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) by incorporating perceived relative advantage as a key antecedent to initial trust. In practical terms, it provides valuable guidance for new online store retailers in formulating strategies to establish trust with their initial consumers, and brand-new online store retailers in conceiving strategies for establishing initial consumer trust. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Trust; Initial Trust; Perceived Relative Advantage; Trusting Beliefs; Trusting Intention, E-Commerce |
| JEL: | M15 M10 |
| Date: | 2024–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr333 |
| By: | Kendrick, Anita Ellen; Vinci, Vincenzo; Vincent, Xavier F. P.; Howell, Fiona J.; Nguyen, Son H. |
| Abstract: | Social protection and jobs programs (SPJ) can improve livelihoods and reduce vulnerability in coastal fishing communities in Solomon Islands, but these programs must be designed in a way that responds to socio-economic vulnerabilities and climate risks, recognizes the reliance of communities on fishing for nutrition and income, and integrates with community-level fisheries management. The Solomon Islands Government (SIG) has placed community-based resource management (CBRM) at the center of its strategy for coastal fisheries management. CBRM recognizes and builds on traditions of indigenous conservation and community rights to promote fisheries management and sustainable harvests. Supporting CBRM through expanded formal social protection (SP), linked with financial inclusion, climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction (DRR), and other complementary initiatives, has the potential to reduce vulnerabilities. |
| Date: | 2024–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:192603 |
| By: | Renaud Bourlès (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, Centrale Med., AMSE); Timothée Demont (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE); Sarah Vincent (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE); Roberta Ziparo (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE) |
| Abstract: | In developing countries, many policy interventions aim to enhance female entrepreneurship by giving access to cash inflows targeting women. However, important investment decisions are usually made at the household level and may be influenced by local cultural norms about female labour force participation. Using a standard collective household model, this paper studies spouses’ joint investment decisions. We show that the individual optimal investment levels are not necessarily aligned between spouses, though costly utility transfers can realign spouses’ incentives. The required transfer is increasing in the stringency of the gender norm against female labour participation, making investment potentially too costly. We test these predictions using two different empirical settings and strategies. First, we exploit original data from a field experiment in India, which gave access to new investment opportunities to women through microcredit. We find that treated women belonging to castes that are relatively more favourable to women investing are more likely to engage in home agricultural production and less likely to engage in casual low-wage jobs. Yet, they seem to enjoy lower utility levels in some dimensions such as health and freedom. To the contrary, we do not find any change in the occupation or independence of women belonging to castes that traditionally impose strong restrictions on women’s behaviour, suggesting that investment is then too costly. Second, we exploit India’s accession to the GATT in 2005 as a natural experiment and use Indian household surveys to study the effect of the termination of quotas imposed on textile exports, a female-dominated activity, on women’s well-being. We find that in districts that are more suitable for cotton growing, a feminine-oriented occupation, removing the quotas increases specialization in garments and decreases health indicators for women belonging to castes that are relatively more in favour of women working. Those empirical findings are consistent with our model, showing that, in the presence of gender norms, female entrepreneurship entails intra-household transfers that impact female well-being and can eventually prevent investment. |
| Keywords: | Female Entrepreneurship, gender norms, Intra-household allocation |
| JEL: | C71 D13 D81 J16 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2422 |
| By: | Ángel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | En esta nota se analiza la liquidación del sistema de financiación de las comunidades autónomas de régimen común correspondiente a 2022, que ha sido hecha pública recientemente por el Ministerio de Hacienda. Con los datos que se aportan en ese documento, se calcula la financiación definitiva a competencias homogéneas e igual esfuerzo fiscal del ejercicio 2022, introduciendo también algunos ajustes a las cifras oficiales con el fin de hacerlas más comparables entre comunidades. Por otra parte, se construyen índices de financiación aumentada, que recogen también los recursos extraordinarios aportados por el Gobierno Central fuera del sistema. Seguidamente, se cuantifican los flujos redistributivos interregionales canalizados a través del sistema de financiación autonómico y se analiza la evolución de los recursos sujetos a liquidación aportados por el sistema entre 2022 y 2025. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2024-26 |
| By: | Ana Aguilar; Jon Frost; Rafael Guerra; Steven Kamin; Alexandre Tombini |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between digital payment innovation, economic growth and informal activities in 101 economies over 2014–19. Following the economic growth literature, panel regressions relate growth rates of GDP per capita, total factor productivity (TFP) and the share of informal sector employment to lagged levels of these variables, the extent of digital payments use and various controls for endogeneity. We find that a one-percentage point increase in digital payments use is associated with increases in the growth of GDP per capita of 0.10 percentage points over a two-year period, and a decline in the share of informal sector employment of 0.06 percentage points over a two-year period. Insofar as the reported share of the population making digital payments ranges nearly from 0 to 100 percent, this is substantial. Digital payments do not appear to be significantly associated with rises in TFP, once controlling for general measures of digitalisation and government effectiveness, but they are linked to greater financial inclusion and credit access. Our results reinforce the case for government policies to encourage digital payments and, as complementary factors, access to the financial sector and information technology. |
| Keywords: | digital innovation, informal economy, productivity, economic growth |
| JEL: | G21 G23 O32 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1196 |
| By: | Davide Bosco; Mario Gilli |
| Abstract: | We study effort provision and incentivisation in a Tullock group-contest with m ≥ 2 groups that differ in size. A novel algorithmic procedure is presented that, under a symmetry assumption, explicitly characterises the equilibrium. Endogenous, optimal incentivisation schemes are then determined. Four results ensue. First, strategic interactions endogenously come in mean-field form: individual effort provision responds to the aggregate effort and average egalitarianism across groups. Therefore, the game is aggregative. Second, individuals endlessly cycle between zero and positive effort provision at some incentivisation schemes: no pure-strategy equilibria exist in these cases. Third, group size determines whether the egalitarianism of endogenous schemes increases or decreases in the average egalitarianism across groups. Fourth, all groups provide effort at the endogenous schemes if incentivisation is properly restricted. |
| Keywords: | Collective-action problem, Conflict, Selective incentives, Strategic complements and substitutes. |
| JEL: | D74 D71 C72 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:540 |
| By: | Janssen, Thilo; Lübker, Malte |
| Abstract: | Real wages in the European Union continued their decline in 2023-despite an acceleration in nominal wage growth and falling inflation rates. For the current year, there are tentative only signs of a slow recovery of the purchasing power of wages. A resumption of real wage growth would stabilize the functional distribution of income and Trends in negotiated wage rates in the eurozone, 2000- 2023 Change from prior year, in per cent Source: European Central Bank (Indicator of negotiated wage rates) and European Commission, AMECO Database (current as of 15 May 2024), authors' calculations. strengthen domestic demand. However, even under this benign scenario, the crisis is not over from workers' point of view: They have borne the brunt of the real income losses associated with the energy price shock resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The lingering reduction in real wage levels means that wage policy still needs to catch up to contribute to a fairer distribution of the buren between labour and capital. |
| Abstract: | Auch im Jahr 2023 sind die Reallöhne in der Europäischen Union weiter gesunken - trotz anziehenden Wachstums der Nominallöhne und fallender Inflationsraten. Erst für das laufende Jahr zeichnet sich eine langsame Erholung ab. Dies stabilisiert die Einkommensverteilung zwischen Arbeit und Kapital und stärkt die Binnennachfrage. Aus Sicht Entwicklung der Tariflöhne in der Euro-Zone, 2000-2023 Veränderungen zum Vorjahr in Prozent Quelle: Europäische Zentralbank (Tariflöhne) und AMECO-Datenbank der Europäischen Kommission (Version: 15. Mai 2024), Berechnungen des WSI. der Beschäftigten ist damit die Krise nicht überwunden: Sie haben den Großteil der realen Einkommenseinbußen getragen, die mit dem Energiepreisschock infolge des russischen Überfalls auf die Ukraine verbunden waren. Aus der nachwirkenden Absenkung des Reallohnniveaus ergibt sich für die Lohnpolitik weiterhin Aufholbedarf, um zu einer gerechteren Lastenverteilung zwischen Arbeit und Kapital beizutragen. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsirep:300552 |
| By: | Shen, Shiran V; Wang, Qi; Zhang, Bing |
| Abstract: | The legislator primarily uses institutions and implements campaigns to achieve effective governance. Institutions foster regularized implementation, while campaigns, which are organized courses of action with some level of coercion to achieve specific goals, happen ad hoc and achieve quick but transient results. This paper fills theoretical gaps in the social sciences by systematically exploring how campaigns can enhance institutions and how regularized campaigns as a new institution creates persistent effects beyond the periods when campaigns are actively ongoing. We theorize that institutions can become ineffective when special interests capture the bureaucracy, in which case campaigns are needed to weaken the regulated entities’ bargaining power. Using an original firm-level dataset, we test our theory on industrial firm responses to changes in air pollution regulation in China and find that the higher-contributing the firms, the more standard violations they committed before the central government started waging waves of campaigns but not after. This suggests that when bureaucratic capture undermines the promise of institutions, campaigns can improve compliance, and their effects can persist when regularized. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, governance, institution, campaign, regulation, environment |
| Date: | 2023–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt0d83b2rw |
| By: | Stan Hurn (Queensland University of Technology); Vance Martin (University of Melbourne); Peter C. B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation, Yale University, University of Auckland); Jun Yu (University of Macau) |
| Abstract: | Financial econometrics is a dynamic discipline that began to take on its present form around the turn of the century. Since then it has found a permanent position as a popular course sequence in both undergraduate and graduate teaching programs in economics, finance, and business schools. Because of the breadth of the subjectÕs foundations, its extensive coverage in applications and because these courses attract a wide range of students with accompanying interests and skill sets that cover diverse areas and technical capabilities, teaching financial econometrics presents many challenges to the university educator. This chapter addresses some of these challenges, provides helpful guidelines to educators, and draws on the combined experience of the authors as teachers and researchers of modern financial econometrics as well as their recent textbook Financial Econometric Modeling (Hurn et al., 2021). The focus is on students converting to finance and econometrics with limited technical background. |
| Keywords: | University education, econometrics, financial theory, financial data, financial industry, software implementation, teaching econometrics |
| JEL: | A22 A23 C58 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2397 |
| By: | FUJII Kojiro; MUROMACHI Shunya |
| Abstract: | In order to operationalize the DFFT initiative promoted by the Japanese Government, it is important how government access to data held by the private sector is disciplined. In the EU GDPR, an interpretation and practice has developed that protection from government access in third countries is a prerequisite for cross-border data transfers. At the international level, the Declaration on Government Access to Personal Data Held by Private Sector Entities was adopted at the OECD. In addition, some trade agreements include provisions to promote the free flow of data while ensuring the protection of personal data. On the other hand, in promoting the free flow of data, it is also important from the perspective of effective law enforcement to ensure appropriate and effective government access, including the collection of electronic evidence located not only in the country's own territory, but also at the destination of the cross-border transfer. In this regard, the US CLOUD Act provides a framework for executive agreements on cross-border data disclosure requests for the purpose of countering crime. This could be a means of ensuring the effectiveness and propriety of cross-border government access to data between like-minded countries. In light of these trends, this paper explores the future directions for cooperation among like-minded countries that will allow for the operationalization of DFFT with a focus on government access. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:24018 |
| By: | Martin Pomares Calero |
| Abstract: | Entropy is a very useful concept from physics that tries to explain how a system behaves from a point of view of the thermodynamics. However, there are two ways to explain entropy, and it depends on if we are studying a microsystem or a microsystem. From a macroscopically point of view, it is important to describe if the system is a reversible system or not. However, form the microscopically point of view, the concept of chaos is related to entropy. In such case, entropy measures the amount of disorder into the system. Otherwise, the idea of connecting at the same time the analysis of the macro and micro system with the use of entropy it is not very common. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.00022 |
| By: | Londoño Mesa, Alejandro (Universidad de los Andes); Martínez, Thomas (Universidad de los Andes); Vélez, María Alejandra (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Las iniciativas para la Reducción de Emisiones por Deforestación y Degradación Forestal (REDD+) son una de las estrategias globales para la reducción de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Estas permiten la compensación de la huella de carbono de terceros, beneficiando a comunidades vulnerables, para retribuir por las actividades de conservación que llevan a cabo. Las iniciativas REDD+ siguen la lógica de los pagos por servicios ambientales (PSA), pero su escala global y la presencia de intermediarios ha representado un obstáculo para su implementación. Detrás de los proyectos REDD+ se han establecido salvaguardas sociales y ambientales, que no se han cumplido en la práctica. A nivel internacional, los proyectos han enfrentado retos en temas de gobernanza, de distribución de beneficios y efectividad en los resultados. Para Colombia, se han identificado problemas similares, como tensiones en la gobernanza, desconocimiento por parte de las comunidades, intereses lucrativos de los intermediarios, entre otros, que evidencian la dificultad para implementar satisfactoriamente los proyectos REDD+. El acompañamiento del Estado, la mejora en las instancias de verificación y el activo involucramiento de las comunidades, se vuelven criterios esenciales para que estas iniciativas cumplan con sus objetivos ambientales y sean una alternativa viable para las comunidades beneficiarias. |
| Keywords: | REDD+; gobernanza comunitaria; conflictos internos; Colombia; distribución de beneficios; salvaguardas; política pública. |
| JEL: | A12 H41 N56 Q20 Q28 Q33 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021160 |
| By: | Maldonado, Jorge Higinio (Universidad de los Andes); Moreno-Sánchez, Rocío del Pilar (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Colombia es un país megadiverso. Alberga más del 10% de la biodiversidad del planeta, de la cual, una parte importante se concentra en el bioma amazónico colombiano (BAC), que cubre más del 43% de la superficie del país. A pesar de su relevancia ecológica, esta región enfrenta amenazas de deforestación, que conducen a la pérdida de biodiversidad y a la degradación de los servicios ecosistémicos. La deforestación en el BAC se asocia a conflictos socio-ambientales como el acaparamiento de tierras, el cultivo de coca y la minería ilegal, todos ellos reforzados por el largo conflicto armado del país. Las condiciones socioeconómicas de la población del BAC afectan y son afectadas por este contexto. Sin embargo, la información socioeconómica es limitada, lo que hace difícil comprender estas relaciones. En este documento, definimos y estimamos una serie de indicadores en cuatro dimensiones: i) socioeconómicos y demográficos, ii) ecosistemas terrestres (bosque), iii) ecosistemas asociados a agua dulce, iv) conflictos socio-ambientales. Además, analizamos las interacciones entre los indicadores y categorías dentro y entre cada una de las dimensiones. El análisis resalta las condiciones precarias de la población en la región, que son aún más extremas entre las comunidades indígenas. A la vez, municipios con mayor proporción de población indígena corresponden a mayores niveles de conservación de bosque natural. A nivel regional, la zona noroccidental es la más amenazada. Estos hallazgos se discuten a la luz de la conferencia del Convenio de Diversidad Biológica. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversidad; Indicadores; Condiciones socioeconómicas; Deforestación; conflictos socio-ambientales; Pobreza; Colombia |
| JEL: | C31 C36 D62 O13 O44 Q01 Q15 Q23 Q24 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–07–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021165 |
| By: | Cristiano Arbex Valle |
| Abstract: | Portfolio optimisation is widely acknowledged for its significance in investment decision-making. Yet, existing methodologies face several limitations, among them converting optimal theoretical portfolios into real investment is not always straightforward. Several classes of exogenous (real-world) constraints have been proposed in literature with the intent of reducing the gap between theory and practice, which have worked to an extent. In this paper, we propose an optimisation-based framework which attempts to further reduce this gap. We have the explicit intention of producing portfolios that can be immediately converted into financial holdings. Our proposed framework is generic in the sense that it can be used in conjunction with any portfolio selection model, and consists of splitting the portfolio selection problem into two-stages. The main motivation behind this approach is in enabling automated investing with minimal human intervention, and thus the framework was built in such a way that real-world market features can be incorporated with relative ease. Among the novel contributions of this paper, this is the first work, to the best of our knowledge, to combine futures contracts and equities in a single framework, and also the first to consider borrowing costs in short positions. We present extensive computational results to illustrate the applicability of our approach and to evaluate its overall quality. Among these experiments, we observed that alternatives from literature are susceptible to numerical errors, whereas our approach effectively mitigates this issue. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.00887 |
| By: | Wätzold, Marlene Yu Lilin; Abdulai, Issaka; Cooke, Amanda; Krumbiegel, Katharina; Ocampo-Ariza, Carolina; Wenzel, Arne; Wollni, Meike |
| Abstract: | Voluntary sustainability standards offer potential for sustainable development by improving the livelihoods of smallholder cash crop farmers while conserving biodiversity. However, their overall implications remain poorly understood, as studies have mostly focused on assessing their effects on single sustainability dimensions. Here, we use an interdisciplinary approach to understand the simultaneous effects of sustainability standards on socioeconomic and ecological outcomes in Ghana’s cocoa sector. Our study is based on a rich dataset comprising representative household data from 814 smallholder cocoa-producing households from five major cocoa regions and ecological data from 119 cocoa plots. Results from the endogenous switching regression approach suggest that sustainability standards have positive effects on socioeconomic outcomes such as cocoa yield, net cocoa income and net returns to land. However, using generalized linear mixed effects models, we do not find any significant associations with ecological outcomes related to vegetation structure and animal diversity. Our results indicate that sustainability standards in Ghana’s cocoa sector lead to socioeconomic benefits but not to ecological benefits for the plot environment. Nevertheless, yield increases do not come at the expense of biodiversity. We conclude that sustainability standards have the potential to improve socioeconomic outcomes, without significantly creating trade-offs with ecological outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:344223 |
| By: | Gao, Fengnan; Wang, Tengyao |
| Abstract: | We introduce a new method for two-sample testing of high-dimensional linear regression coefficients without assuming that those coefficients are individually estimable. The procedure works by first projecting the matrices of covariates and response vectors along directions that are complementary in sign in a subset of the coordinates, a process which we call ‘complementary sketching’. The resulting projected covariates and responses are aggregated to form two test statistics, which are shown to have essentially optimal asymptotic power under a Gaussian design when the difference between the two regression coefficients is sparse and dense respectively. Simulations confirm that our methods perform well in a broad class of settings and an application to a large single-cell RNA sequencing dataset demonstrates its utility in the real world. |
| Keywords: | high-dimensional data; linear model; minimax detection; sparsity; two-sample hypothesis testing |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2022–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115644 |
| By: | Shi, Xiangyu |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I provide the first cross-country empirical analysis to establish three stylized facts on electoral incentive dynamics, national leaders' capability, and economic performance, using a novel data set of national leaders' personal and tenure characteristics and countries' institutional features: (1) In democracies with (exogenous) term limits, the positive association between leaders' performance and their capability is significantly less pronounced in their last term, when they do not have any re-election incentives; (2) In democracies with term limits, the positive association between leaders' performance and their capability is decreasing over time on average in their entire tenure, but exhibits a jump in the term right before the last term; and (3) The above patterns are more salient in presidential democracies with binding term limits than parliamentary democracies while non-existent in non-democracies where leaders are not appointed via elections. These facts are consistent with a theoretical model of the dynamic decision-making of a politician with re-election concerns. |
| Keywords: | leader; institution; economic performance; election and re-election incentives; electoral dynamics |
| JEL: | D7 H5 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121574 |
| By: | Goodrich, Jimmy |
| Abstract: | China’s leadership, under Xi Jinping, has initiated a significant strategic shift toward a "fortress economy" designed to bolster national self-sufficiency and resilience against external shocks, and ultimately allow the nation to withstand “extreme situations” including protracted armed conflict. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of China’s fortress economy policy, tracing its roots from early warnings about international instability to its formalization in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and subsequent policy actions. By examining official speeches, policy documents, and strategic initiatives, the paper explains how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is operationalizing this strategy through key domains such as food security, energy independence, and critical supply-chain resilience. The analysis highlights the CCP’s perception of an increasingly hostile international environment, prompting a paradigm shift that prioritizes national security and economic self-reliance. This research contributes to understanding China’s strategic intentions and provides a foundation for further exploration of the implications of China’s fortress economy on global economic and geopolitical dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Self-sufficiency, economic security, fortress economy, wartime economy |
| Date: | 2024–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt9q53t1sz |
| By: | Hashimoto, Barry; Park, Sanghoon; Wu, Victor Y. |
| Abstract: | We computationally reproduce the central findings in Mehmood (2022), which studied the effect of a 2010 reform in Pakistan replacing the presidential appointment of high-court judges with peer appointments. Mehmood leveraged judicial records interpreted and coded by lawyers in Pakistan at the levels of cases, districts, benches, and individual judges. We successfully execute all Stata code in the author's replication archive without any errors, then translate and execute that code in R, again finding no serious errors. Consequently, we reproduce the article's main findings from regressions in Tables 2-4. Additionally, we successfully reconstruct the primary treatment variables of these regressions, after corresponding with the author to clarify precisely how to do so. We then replicate the main findings from regressions in Tables 2-10. Finally, we identify several minor errors which left the article's findings intact. Overall, this report reveals no serious defects in Mehmood (2022). We publicly archive our replication code and a spreadsheet of our results. |
| Keywords: | comparative politics, judicial politics, rule of law, constitutions, replication, computational social science, Pakistan |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:135 |
| By: | Michele Fornino; Mahmut Kutlukaya; Caterina Lepore; Javier Uruñuela López |
| Abstract: | The study provides forward-looking estimates for economic damages from floods and tropical cyclones (TC) for a wide range of countries using global datasets. Damages are estimated for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and aggregated at the country level, building them from geographically disaggregated estimates of hazard severity and economic exposures across 183 countries. The results show that, for most countries, floods and TC’s damage rates increase (i) during the estimation span of 2020 to 2100, and (ii) with more severe global warming scenarios. In line with other global studies, expected floods and TCs damages are unevenly distributed across the world. The estimates can be used for a wide range of applications, as damage rates represent the key variable connecting climate scenarios to economics and financial sector risk analysis. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Forward-looking climate projections; Climate scenario analysis; Economic losses; Damage functions; Tropical Cyclones; Floods |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/141 |
| By: | Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Giammarco Alderotti (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Cecilia Tomassini (Università del Molise) |
| Abstract: | Objective As populations age, family dynamics are inherently intertwined with health issues. This paper addresses the correlates of silver splits – i.e., voluntary union dissolutions after the age of 50 – in Europe by focusing on the role of partners’ health status. Background Family diversity at later ages is growing in wealthy countries, with late union dissolutions increasingly occurring through separation and divorce rather than widowhood. Nonetheless, we know little about the correlates of silver splits in Europe, especially regarding the role of health status. Method We use data from the European Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement, and employ discrete-time event history analysis to model the probability of silver splits, separately for couples in which both partners are aged 50–64 and for couples in which at least one partner is 65 or older. We inspect three different health dimensions for both partners within a couple: the self-rated health, the Global Activity Limitations Index, and depression. Results Our results indicate a non-negligible association between health status and union dissolution among couples aged 50–64, with gender playing a crucial role. When the male partner has poor self-rated health or activity limitations, but the female partner is healthy, the risk of union dissolution remains similar to that of healthy couples. However, if the female partner has poor self-rated health or activity limitations while the male partner is healthy, the risk of union dissolution increases significantly. Additionally, poor mental health in either partner (or both) raises the risk of union dissolution. The results regarding couples in which at least one partner is aged 65 are less informative, suggesting that the role of health in shaping silver splits may weaken with age. Conclusion Researchers should consider how health operates as a stressor on union stability and should exercise caution in interpreting cross-sectional studies as evidence of the benefits of unions. Among couples in the early phase of old age (50–64), gendered health-related selection effects are at play, with men struggling more than women with a partner’s deteriorating health, jeopardizing the couple’s stability. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the European Union – Next Generation EU, in the context of The National Recovery and Resilience Plan, Investment Partenariato Esteso PE8 “Conseguenze e sfide dell'invecchiamento†, Research Program Age-It (Ageing Well in an Ageing Society, PE8-B83C22004800006). The authors are thankful to the colleagues from the Unit of Population and Society (UPS) of the University of Florence, to the members of the Laboratory on Longevity and Ageing (LoLA), to Damiano Uccheddu and to Francesca Zanasi for their comments. |
| Keywords: | grey divorces; silver splits; union dissolution; ageing; Europe |
| JEL: | J12 I14 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2024_07 |
| By: | Jérémie Pellet; Ibrahima Wade |
| Abstract: | Les pays et les populations prennent davantage conscience, jour après jour, de l’urgence du changement climatique et de ses conséquences négatives sur la Planète, et de la nécessité d’adopter des pratiques plus durables. Il est évidemment essentiel que le mouvement olympique montre la voie en embrassant davantage d’initiatives écologiques et en structurant de manière plus durable les Jeux olympiques. L’exemple de Paris 2024, avec son ambition affichée dès le départ d’un bilan carbone deux fois moindre que les éditions précédentes et l’accent mis sur leur héritage, est à cet égard éclairant et porteur de leçons pour l’avenir. Cependant, et même si aucun retour en arrière ne serait ni souhaitable ni sans doute possible, l’inclusion de cette exigence dans les grands événements sportifs qui doit devenir la règle ne peut être une barrière à l’entrée infranchissable pour leur organisation dans d’autres endroits que les pays développés. Les travaux menés sur ce sujet dans le cadre des Jeux Olympiques de la Jeunesse qui se tiendront à Dakar en 2026, premier événement olympique de cette importance en Afrique, s’inscrivent dans cette perspective de conciliation d’un objectif de développement durable des Jeux au profit de tous les peuples et de toute la jeunesse du monde.Alors que les Jeux olympiques et paralympiques s’ouvrent dans quelques jours à Paris, il apparaît utile d’analyser comment cet événement et les suivants peuvent s’inscrire dans les objectifs internationaux plus larges partagés par les États membres du mouvement olympique et dans le cadre fixé notamment lors du Pacte de Paris pour les Peuples et la Planète de juin 2023 |
| Keywords: | Afrique, Sénégal |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr16981 |
| By: | Yifei Cai (University of South Australia); Jamel Saadaoui (University of Paris 8); Gazi Salah Uddin |
| Abstract: | Recent increasing partisan conflicts in the US strain the relationship between the US and China, leading to a decrease in oil demand and a temporary rise in oil prices. Conversely, positive news shocks regarding Sino-U.S. political relations reduce political conflicts in the US, resulting in decreased oil demand and prices. Last, positive shocks to good and bad news have asymmetric effects on the oil market. |
| Keywords: | China, oil market, political relation news, partisan conflict, asymmetries |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2024.12 |
| By: | Mario Gilli (Department of Economics, Management and Statistics, University of Milano-Bicocca); Andrea Sorrentino (Department of Economics, Management and Statistics, University of Milano-Bicocca) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we consider a deterministic complete information two groups contest where the effort choices made by the teammates are aggregated into group performance by the weakest-link technology (perfect complementarity), that is a “max-min group contest”, as defined by Chowdhury et al. (2016). However, instead of a continuum effort set, we employ a binary action set. Further, we consider private good prizes, so that there is a sharing issue within the winning group. Therefore, we include two stages: the first one about the setting of a sharing rule parameter and the second one about simultaneous and independent actions’ choices. The binary action set allow us to innovate on the existing literature by (i) characterizing the full set of the second stage equilibrium actions; (ii) computationally characterizing in MATLAB the set of within-group symmetric subgame perfect Nash equilibria in pure strategies in the entire game. We find conditions such that the set of within-group symmetric subgame perfect Nash equilibria in pure strategies have the cardinality of the continuum. We also check whether this paper’s results are due to discreteness or to binary choice, proving that in this case there are no subgame perfect Nash equilibria in pure strategies, as proved in the continuum case in Gilli and Sorrentino (2024). |
| Keywords: | Group contests, Sharing rules, Indeterminacy |
| JEL: | D74 D71 C72 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2024.08 |
| By: | Duradi, Ali; Weigt, Hannes (University of Basel) |
| Abstract: | The electricity sector plays a key role in achieving zero-emission targets. The required transition will lead to substantial changes in the supply, demand, and distribution of electricity but also in stakeholder roles. Future market designs may change substantially to accommodate these changes, address challenges, and take advantage of new opportunities. This paper reviews the characteristics of future carbon-neutral electricity systems and electricity market design options. To provide a guiding framework for the literature review, we transfer the complexity of electricity systems into a three-layer structure: firstly, we analyze the papers that rely on techno-economic modeling of the physical electricity system. As a case study, we analyze various studies focusing on a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050. Secondly, we review papers that investigates the economic behavior and effects of self interest-seeking stakeholderssuch as producers, network operators, and consumers. Finally, we review papers focusing on policy and market design questions that guide policymakers to achieve a target physical asset combination while considering the behavior of stakeholders. We highlight common trends and disagreements in the literature, review the main drivers of future markets, and finally provide a mapping between those drivers, challenges, and opportunities. The review concludes that the most promising next step toward a fully comprehensive assessment approach is to combine the existing approaches across topical and disciplinary boundaries. |
| JEL: | L94 Q4 |
| Date: | 2024–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2024/06 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; David Krisztian Nagy; Alex Trew; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how cities’ industrial structure shapes their life and death. Our analys is exploits the large heterogeneity in the early composition of English and Welsh cities. We extract built-up clusters from early historical maps, identify settlements at the on set of the nineteenth century, and isolate exogenous variation in the nature of their rise during the transformation of the economy by the end of the nineteenth century. We then estimate the causal impact of cities’ population and industrial specialization on their later dynamics. We find that cities specializing in a small number of industries decline in the long run. We develop a dynamic spatial model of cities to isolate the forces which govern their life and death.Intratemporally, the model captures the role of amenities, land, local productivity and trade in explaining the distribution of economic activity across industries and cities. Intertemporally, the model can disentangle the role of aggregate industry dynamics from city-specific externalities. We find that the long-run dynamics of English and Welsh cities is explained to a large extent by such dynamic externalities `a la Jacobs. |
| Keywords: | specialization; cities over time; quantitative economic geography. |
| JEL: | F63 N93 O14 R13 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2023_09 |
| By: | Akira Kawamura (Faculty of Human Sciences, Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the causal impact of the local unemployment rate on child death cases due to unintentional drowning – a common consequence of child neglect – using vital statistics from Japan. We use predicted overall and gender-specific local unemployment rates derived from a shift-share research design, rather than the raw local unemployment rates. Our estimation results reveal that a one-percent increase in the overall local unemployment rate correlates with a 7.13% rise in child death cases due to unintentional drowning. When analyzing gender-specific unemployment rates, we find that only increases in female unemployment rates are associated with an uptick in tragic cases. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of female local unemployment rate is more pronounced in regions characterized by lower socioeconomic status, higher proportions of younger parents, a greater prevalence of single-parent households, and fewer public resources. Furthermore, our findings suggest that younger single parents are particularly susceptible to the mental health impacts of increases in female local unemployment rates. |
| Keywords: | child neglect; child death cases; unemployment rate; shift-share research design |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2405 |
| By: | Sachin Sharma (Department of Economics, Chaudhary Ranbir Singh University, Jind, India.); Vijay Kumar (Department of Economics, Chaudhary Ranbir Singh University, Jind, India.); Babloo Jakhar (Department of Economics, Central University of Rajasthan, Ajmer, India) |
| Abstract: | T his paper contributes to the growing body of literature exploring the ramifications of AI-driven technological singularity and its economic implications. The exploration unfolds in three key segments. First, it sheds light on the concepts of artificial general intelligence (AGI), AI superintelligence, and singularity itself. Subsequently, it discusses the AI alignment problem, addressing the potential outcomes of superintelligent AI on human civilisation. Further, Giddens' structuration theory is used to highlight the prominent role of AI-based "authoritative resources" in determining the allocation of resources and ensuring distributive justice in a techno-utopian society. The paper also explores the idea of utopia and the "end of history" and concludes with the suggestion that achieving a technological utopia with superintelligent AI is a mechanism design problem. |
| Abstract: | Niniejszy artykuł stanowi wkład w rosnącą literaturę poświęconą konsekwencjom technologicznym osobliwości napędzanej przez sztuczną inteligencję (SI) i jej skutkom gospodarczym. Analiza skupia się na trzech kluczowych aspektach. Po pierwsze, uwagę poświęcono koncepcji ogólnej sztucznej inteligencji (AGI), superinteligencji AI i samej osobliwości. Następnie omówiono problem dostosowania SI, odnosząc się do potencjalnych skutków superinteligentnej SI dla ludzkiej cywilizacji. Wykorzystując teorię strukturacji Giddensa, podkreślono także znaczącą rolę „autorytatywnych zasobów" opartych na sztucznej inteligencji w określaniu alokacji zasobów i zapewnianiu sprawiedliwości dystrybucyjnej w społeczeństwie technoutopijnym. W artykule przeanalizowano również ideę utopii i „końca historii", a we wnioskach zasugerowano, że osiągnięcie technologicznej utopii z superinteligentną sztuczną inteligencją stanowi problem projektowania mechanizmów. |
| Keywords: | economic convergence, technological singularity, end of history, alignment problem, superintelligent AI, konwergencja ekonomiczna, osobliwość technologiczna, koniec historii, problem dopasowania, superinteligentna SI |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04078104 |
| By: | Yann Raineau (UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marianne Lefebvre (UA - Université d'Angers); Chantal Le Mouël (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Jesus Barreiro Hurle (Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy); Thomas M Chappell (Texas A&M University System); Marius Wolf; Marco de Toffol; Dimitri Dubois (Groupama); Sylvain Coutu (AXA Climate); Niklas Möhring (Universität Bonn = University of Bonn); Marco Rogna; Emilio Rodriguez Cerezo (Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy); Manuel Gomez-Barbero (Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Plant pests and diseases can cause considerable impacts on crop yields, and in turn food and feed security. Pesticides are one of the most frequent tools used to control or eliminate these pests and diseases playing a crucial role to assure food security. However, pesticide use also leads to undesired environmental and health impacts. The European Commission´s Joint Research Centre organized a workshop in November 2023 to explore innovative alternative business models that are emerging to facilitate reductions in pesticide use and risk while minimizing impacts in food security. This report summarizes the contributions presented at the workshop covering the legislative framework for pesticide reduction, theoretical considerations on pesticide reduction behaviour, examples of new technologies and business models being developed and insights from research on their potential to facilitate the transition to a low-pesticide use agriculture. The overall message stemming from the workshop is that outcome-based services and insurance policies can be key tool to enable farmers to achieve this reduction. However, the existing empirical evidence of the performance of these tools is still very scarce and these new business models still have to show their potential when upscaling from pre-commercial stage. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04628080 |
| By: | Caroline Klein; Jonathan Smith |
| Abstract: | The Danish labour market is strong, but tensions have increased since the pandemic. The post-pandemic recovery boosted labour demand, but structural factors, such as late labour market entry by the young, changing skills requirements and obstacles to the recruitment of migrants, contribute to persistent shortages and impact the wider economy. Lowering the effective tax rate on labour income could reduce disincentives to higher working hours and to moving from part-time to full-time employment. Adapting the workplace to an ageing population and adjusting early retirement schemes could help to extend working lives. Targeting the tenth grade to students with greater learning needs, reducing student allowances and introducing an income-contingent loan system for master’s students could also encourage faster entry into the labour market. There is room to increase the recruitment of foreign-born workers, as well as improving their integration. The demographic, digital and green transitions will transform jobs and skills requirements, demanding an agile education and training system throughout the working life. Encouraging vocational education and training, notably by facilitating mobility between vocational and academic tracks, would ensure strong skills in areas where workers are lacking. |
| Keywords: | Denmark, education, gender, labour market, migration, pension, skills, taxation |
| JEL: | I28 J16 J20 J24 J26 J60 M53 |
| Date: | 2024–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1811-en |
| By: | CARAYANNIS Elias |
| Abstract: | The aim of this report is to investigate the potential for harnessing key features of Transformative Innovation to improve the design and the implementation of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies, based on empirical analyses. The study draws on the conceptual framework on this question previously defined for the JRC (European Commission, 2024), and the methodology for case studies articulated in the same report. The case study research comprises overall 14 case study reports covering 16 different territories from across the EU and beyond, casing various institutional contexts, a variety of climate risks within different biogeographical regions, different ranges of population sizes, and representing a diversity of approaches to CCA and transformative innovation. The framework takes the form of an analytical grid, structured into seven sections, each of them representing a key feature of the ‘transformative innovation’ approach where the features are understood as essential conditions for the design and implementation of CCA strategies with this high level of ambition. Each section sets out the main question(s) to be addressed in relation to its respective transformative innovation features. This Report provides the findings for the regions of Attica and North Aegean regions, Greece, as at November 2023 and is the result of a collaboration between the Joint Research Centre (JRC), DG CLIMA and DG RTD. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc137322 |
| By: | João A. Bastos; Fernando Cascão |
| Abstract: | We examine the factors influencing equity market liquidity through explainable machine learning techniques. Unlike previous studies, our approach is entirely nonparametric. By studying daily placement orders for equity securities managed by a European asset management institution, we uncover multiple nonlinear relationships between market liquidity and placement characteristics typically not captured by a traditional parametric model. As expected, the results show that liquidity tends to increase in highly active markets. However, we also note that liquidity remains relatively stable within certain trading volume ranges. Price volatility, broker efficiency, and the market impact of the trade are important predictors of liquidity. Price volatility shows a linear relationship with bid-ask spreads, whereas broker efficiency and market impact have non-symmetric convex effects. Large bid-ask spreads are linked to increased uncertainty and weak economic activity. |
| Keywords: | Market liquidity; Equity markets; Bid-ask spreads, Nonparametric models; Machine learning, Explainable AI. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03322024 |
| By: | Hepburn, Cameron; Stern, Nicholas; Xie, Chunping; Zenghelis, Dimitri |
| Abstract: | China's economy has seen rapid development ever since its reform and opening-up strategy was launched in 1978. Strong economic expansion over the past four decades has taken China from low-income to upper-middle-income status. Looking back at the transformation that China has made, however, we must recognise that the old growth story is coming to an end. The phase of development driven by investment in physical capital will be increasingly supplanted by investment in assets such as knowledge and social capital as well as investment in preservation of natural capital. Recognising the challenges that China is facing, with this paper we aim to offer an approach to growth and development that could spell out a new development strategy for the country as the 21st century progresses. China will focus on the technologies with high-quality growth prospects: modern service sectors, including health, education, transport, communications and IT, artificial intelligence, finance, logistics, sustainable urban infrastructure and new food and land-use systems. With today's technologies, China can help the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries embark on a much more sustainable, more efficient and greener form of development, avoiding historical problems of pollution and congestion, with China itself moving up the value chain at the same time. |
| Keywords: | 14th Five-Year Plan; China's economy; climate change; global governance |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2023–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124057 |
| By: | Jacquemin, Philippe; Gräf, Miriam; Hendriks, Patrick; Wahl, Nihal |
| Abstract: | The metaverse is becoming a new way of working for virtual teams, providing an immersive environment that is redefining how we collaborate and work in an interconnected world. Recognizing the necessity to enhance the dynamics of team collaboration in the evolving virtual workspace, we take a closer look at virtual team meetings by employing a design science research (DSR) approach. Through conducting eleven in-depth interviews, we systematically explored and identified the specific problems encountered in virtual team meetings. Following a thorough analysis, based on the identified problems, we primarily derived design principles for virtual environments and design metaverse-specific digital nudges that positively influence the behavior of team members to enhance team collaboration. |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:146701 |
| By: | Kemper, Nathan |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession, Farm Management, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343902 |
| By: | Volker Ziemann |
| Abstract: | Slovenia's current housing challenges are characterised by strong demand and inadequate supply, exacerbated by rising construction and financing costs. High ownership rates mask the affordability challenge for younger cohorts or those who want to move amid limited rental markets and insufficient residential construction activity. This paper proposes a range of policy options to make housing more efficient, inclusive and sustainable. Streamlining spatial planning and permitting systems would foster housing supply responsiveness. Levelling the playing field in rental markets and overhauling real estate taxation can boost market efficiency. Enhancing access to mortgage financing and improving framework conditions for the provision of social housing would expand housing options for households. Finally, housing policies should aim at accelerating the transition to a net-zero economy by aligning energy taxation more closely with the carbon content of the source, strengthening the support programmes for renovation works and improving framework conditions for the deployment of district heating and electrification. |
| Keywords: | Housing affordability, Housing decarbonisation, Housing policy, Housing supply, Property taxation, Rental markets, Residential construction, Social housing, Spatial planning |
| JEL: | H23 H77 R31 R38 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1810-en |
| By: | Bloebaum, Anke; Schmidt, Karolin; Böcher, Michael; Arlinghaus, Julia; Krause, Friederike; Matthies, Ellen |
| Abstract: | The overall research objective of the present study is the investigation of the effects of a strongly expressed restriction-oriented climate change mitigation heuristic (SER heuristic) on people's attitudes towards and acceptance of climate change mitigation technologies such as Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU). Furthermore, we want to examine the effects of a scenario-based communication intervention approach on the promotion of a supportive attitude towards and acceptance of CCU, especially referring to people characterized by a SER heuristic. Against this background, we present empirical findings based on an online experiment including a scenario-based intervention in an initial sample of 401 German participants. In line with our expectations, our findings show that participants characterized by a SER heuristic report a significantly lower supportive attitude towards CCU as well as a lower acceptance of CCU, compared to participants who are not characterized by a SER heuristic. Furthermore, our findings imply the examined scenario-based communication intervention approach to be an effective tool for the promotion of participants’ supportive attitudes towards CCU and acceptance of CCU. Taken together, the present study provides further valuable insights for the promotion of people’s supportive attitude towards as well as of their acceptance of necessary new climate change mitigation technologies such as CCU. |
| Date: | 2024–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dqt4u |
| By: | Giordano, Nicola; Aston, Thomas; Wadeson, Alix Sara; Adamseged, Elias; Michalscheck, Mirja; Minh, Thai Thi |
| Abstract: | The "Rethinking Food Markets and Value Chains for Inclusion and Sustainability†Initiative aims to provide evidence on what types of bundled innovations, incentive structures, and policies are most effective for creating more equitable sharing of income and employment opportunities in growing food markets while reducing the food sector’s environmental footprint. The Initiative targets approximately 30, 000 individuals across six geographical areas, focusing on four key innovation areas: vertical coordination models, product quality certification, digital logistics, and finance innovations, along with global knowledge assessment. The approach to evaluating the initiative's impact is based on a combination of theory-based methodologies, explicitly focusing on Process Tracing (PT) for the impact evaluation phase. The evaluation is designed to reflect on the success and learnings of the initiative while strengthening CGIAR's practice of theory-based methods such as PT and integrating innovative techniques like "causal hotspots" and Outcome Harvesting for more nuanced analysis. At its core, this evaluation prioritizes and focuses on detailed case studies of selected innovation bundles. This distinctive feature allows for an in-depth analysis of significant outcomes within the initiative. The selection process is guided by the "causal hotspot" strategy for Contribution Analysis (CA) combined with Outcome Harvesting (OH), which helps identify key areas of impact prior to the PT application. The PT methodology is then rigorously applied to examine the plausibility of each innovation's contributions and the strength of supporting evidence. This provides valuable insights to scaling efforts and evidence-based decision-making. |
| Keywords: | decision making; impact assessment; innovation; methods |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:149085 |
| By: | MOLICA Francesco (European Commission - JRC); MARQUES SANTOS Anabela (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The EU operates at least three major instruments supporting R&I across its regions: cohesion policy, Horizon Europe, and the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Cohesion policy and Horizon 2020 combined contribute critically to the R&D expenditure in most regions of Eastern Europe (often to the extent of 20% or higher) as well as many Mediterranean regions. R&I cohesion policy and Horizon 2020 funds exhibit very different regional concentration levels along North-South and East-West lines. However, Horizon 2020 funds are much more territorially concentrated than cohesion policy ones, with the bulk going to few areas leading in R&I, which may heighten the risk of regional disparities. In Eastern Europe and some parts of the Mediterranean even middle-income and more developed regions in Eastern European countries fail to attract higher amounts of Horizon 2020 than their cohesion policy allocation. RRF Third, the RRF provide substantial support to R&I in both countries with a weak and good innovation performance, placing it in-between cohesion policy and Horizon in terms of concentration. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136780 |
| By: | DREONI Ilda (European Commission - JRC); MAIER Sofia (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | With the hike of global energy prices of 2022-2023 and the fairness challenges of the green transition, energy poverty is again back to the forefront of economic policy debates in Europe. However, the absence of consensus on energy poverty measurement complicates policy formulation and evaluation in this domain. This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the EU-wide distribution and profiles of the ‘energy poor’. We use four well-known measures of energy poverty, two subjective and two based on expenditures, coming from two different household surveys, i.e., HBS and SILC, which we statistically match. With this, we fill an important gap in the literature by measuring the extent of overlap between these indicators. Our results reveal that expenditure-based indicators cover larger shares of the population, especially in middle and high-income EU countries, with very small overlap between energy poverty measures. In the EU, only 0.3% of the population qualifies as ‘energy poor’ when considering all four indicators, while four out of ten (40%) would enter this club by at least one of these indicators. Overall, by providing a characterization of the profiles of those who would be covered or ‘left behind’ by each of these indicators, as well as their relationship with incomes and expenditures, we shed new light on the heterogeneous distributional effects from policy-targeting based on these indicators. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202405 |
| By: | Kahrl, Fritz; Lin, Jiang |
| Abstract: | Concerns around reliability in Chinas electricity sector have rekindled interest in a traditional solution: building more coal-fired generation. However, over the past decade Chinas electricity sector has seen significant changes in supply costs, demand patterns, and regulation and markets, with falling costs for renewable and storage generation, peakier demand, and the creation of wholesale markets. These changes suggest that traditional approaches to evaluating the economics of different supply options may be outdated. This paper illustrates how a net capacity cost metric - fixed costs minus net market revenues - might be a useful metric for evaluating supply options to meet peak demand growth in China. Using a simplified example with recent resource cost data, the paper illustrates how, with a net capacity cost metric, electricity storage and solar PV may be a more cost-effective option for meeting peak demand growth than coal-fired generation. |
| Keywords: | Economics, Energy Modelling, Energy management, Energy systems |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt83v0m2zw |
| By: | Anujit Chakraborty (University of California); Luca Henkel (University of Chicago & University of CEMA) |
| Abstract: | In prosocial decisions, decision-makers are inherently uncertain about how their decisions impact others’ utility – we call this interpersonal uncertainty. We show that people's response to interpersonal uncertainty shapes well-known patterns of prosocial behavior. First, using standard social allocation decisions, we replicate the classic patterns of ingroup favoritism, merit-based fairness ideals, and self-favoring behavior in dictator games. We then show that these patterns also arise in non-social decisions which have no consequences for others and instead solely reflect responses to interpersonal uncertainty. Behavior across social and non-social decisions is highly correlated, and self-reported interpersonal uncertainty predicts behavior in both situations. Moreover, exogenously varying interpersonal uncertainty shifts prosocial behavior in the direction that avoids such uncertainty. Our results quantify how beliefs in the form of interpersonal uncertainty influence prosocial behavior, which we estimate to be of similar importance to social preferences. |
| Keywords: | Prosocial behavior, social preferences, ingroup versus outgroup decisions, dictator games, fairness preferences, interpersonal uncertainty |
| JEL: | C91 D01 D91 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:327 |
| By: | Weni Susanti (Universitas Tridinanti Palembang, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Kamaludin Author-2-Workplace-Name: "Universitas Bengkulu, Indonesia " Author-3-Name: Berto Usman Author-3-Workplace-Name: "Universitas Bengkulu, Indonesia " Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - This study investigates the phenomenon of herding behavior among investors in Indonesia's Shariah banks. In this situation, market participants tend to follow prevailing market trends without engaging in comprehensive fundamental analysis. Methodology/Technique – Specifically, the research examines the influence of investors' religious understanding as a mediating variable on their decision-making processes within the Shariah financial sector. Notably, the study addresses whether investors are more inclined to mimic market movements or rely on independent analysis when investing in Sharia-compliant banks. It is commonly observed that rumors can precipitate rash trading decisions among investors, leading to the buying or selling of shares even in the absence of substantial changes in asset fundamentals (Bommel, 2003). Findings – Employing a quantitative approach, this study utilizes path analysis to explore the impact of religious understanding on herding behavior. Although prior research has extensively investigated herding behavior, the introduction of religious understanding as a mediating variable offers a new dimension to assess the correlation between religiosity and market behavior. This aspect has not been widely examined in previous segmentations. The sample comprises data from 15 Islamic Banks in Indonesia, analyzed using associative data analysis techniques with AMOS software. Findings indicate significant positive relationships between stock returns and herding behavior, trading volume and herding behavior, and the level of Islamic understanding and herding behavior in these banks. Novelty – However, these relationships do not hold when Islamic understanding is applied as a mediating variable. This suggests that the level of religious understanding acts as a direct influencer rather than a mediator in herding behavior among investors in Indonesian Islamic banks. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Herding behavior, Stock returns, Trading volume, Level of Understanding of Islam. |
| JEL: | G41 D81 C58 |
| Date: | 2024–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr222 |
| By: | Marc-Antoine Faure; Bárbara Polo Martin; Fabio Cremaschini; César Ducruet |
| Abstract: | Conflicts, whether political, commercial or military, affect transport networks. Operators seek to avoid the most tense areas or reconsider certain routes. Certain links can be disrupted in case of local geopolitical tensions, which can have a significant global impact. The article is devoted to studying Ukraine’s maritime network and identifying changes in these structures because of the conflict that started in 2014. The purpose of the paper is to measure and visualise the main changes in the Ukrainian seaport system and maritime forelands from 2010 until the most recent data available (December 2023), from a network models, bilateral trade and route simulation framework. The principal results confirm the huge impact of military conflict on port connectivity, thereby contributing to the recent literature on shipping network vulnerability. |
| Keywords: | Black Sea, Complex networks, Shipping Trade, Russian-Ukrainian War |
| JEL: | F14 F51 R40 L91 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-24 |