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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2024‒05‒20
fifteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Jaccard, Ivan |
| Abstract: | The evidence suggests that monetary policy transmission is asymmetric over the business cycle. Interacting financing frictions with a preference for liquidity provides an explanation for this fact. Our mechanism generates monetary asymmetries in a model that jointly reproduces a set of asset market and business cycle facts. Accounting for the joint dynamics of asset prices and business cycle fluctuations is key; in a variant of the model that is unable to produce realistic macro-finance implications, monetary asymmetries disappear. Our results suggest that asymmetries in the transmission mechanism critically depend on the macro-finance implications of monetary policy models, and that resorting to nonlinear techniques is not sufficient to detect monetary asymmetries. JEL Classification: E31, E44, E58 |
| Keywords: | asset pricing in DSGE models, money demand, nonlinear solution methods, stochastic discount factor, term premium |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242928&r=mac |
| By: | Nicolas Caramp; Dejanir H. Silva |
| Abstract: | We study the role of asset revaluation in the monetary transmission mechanism. We build an analytical heterogeneous-agents model with two main ingredients: i) rare disasters; ii) heterogeneous beliefs. The model captures time-varying risk premia and precautionary savings in a setting that nests the textbook New Keynesian model. The model generates large movements in asset prices after a monetary shock but these movements can be neutral on real variables. Real effects depend on the redistribution among agents with heterogeneous precautionary motives. In a calibrated exercise, we find that this channel accounts for the majority of the transmission to output. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, wealth effects, asset prices, aggregate risk, heterogeneity beliefs |
| JEL: | E21 E44 E52 G12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11049&r=mac |
| By: | François Gourio; Phuong Ngo |
| Abstract: | We develop a parsimonious New Keynesian macro-finance model with downward nominal rigidities to understand secular and cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia. Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation dynamics: a higher level of inflation makes prices more flexible, leading output and inflation to be more volatile, and bonds to become more risky. The model matches well the relation between the level of inflation and a number of salient macro-finance moments. Moreover, we show that empirically, inflation and output respond more strongly to productivity shocks when inflation is high, as predicted by the model. |
| Keywords: | term premium; Bond premiums; Phillips curve; Inflation; Asymmetry |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E43 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:98104&r=mac |
| By: | Ferrara, Federico Maria |
| Abstract: | This study provides new evidence on the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and auction cycles in the euro area. Using proprietary data on purchases of public sector securities implemented by the Eurosystem, the paper examines the flow effects of asset purchase programmes on 10-year government bond yields in secondary markets around dates of public debt auctions. The findings indicate that Eurosystem’s asset purchase flows mitigate yield cycles during auction periods and counteract the amplification impact of market volatility. The dampening effect of central bank asset purchases on auction cycles is more sizeable and precisely estimated for purchases of securities with medium-term maturities and in jurisdictions with relatively lower credit ratings. The analysis has broader implications for monetary policy and market functioning in the euro area. JEL Classification: E52, E58, G12, G14 |
| Keywords: | bond yields, Eurosystem, flow effects, public debt auctions, unconventional monetary policy |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242927&r=mac |
| By: | Mark Setterfield (Department of Economics, New School For Social Research, USA); George Wheaton (Department of Economics, New School For Social Research, USA) |
| Abstract: | The Goodwin pattern – a counter-cyclical rotation in real activity × wage share space – is an established stylized fact of capitalist macrodynamics. Existing models typically assume profit-led real-sector dynamics, together with a ‘reserve army’ or profit squeeze mechanism, in order to reproduce this pattern. We extend an animal-spirits-driven business cycle model, in which the demand regime determining real-sector outcomes is wage-led, by adding a reserve army effect determining real wage dynamics. We construct an agent-based simulation of the model and show that we are able to reproduce the Goodwin pattern. Our results add to the literature suggesting that the Goodwin pattern can arise from a variety of different macrodynamic ensembles – including some that feature wage-led real sectors. |
| Keywords: | Goodwin pattern, animal spirits, wage-led demand, reserve army mechanism, profit squeeze, agent-based model, cyclical growth |
| JEL: | C63 E11 E12 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2407&r=mac |
| By: | Karim Darban (University Hassan II [Casablanca]); Smail Kabbaj (UH2MC - Université Hassan II [Casablanca]); Mostafa El Jay (University Hassan II [Casablanca]) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how AI can greatly enhance green marketing strategies by improving customer targeting, providing personalized recommendations, optimizing supply chains, and accurately forecasting market trends. And addresses the challenges associated with data quality, privacy concerns, biases in algorithms, and transparency issues that need to be overcome for responsible AI implementation. The paper suggests practical recommendations for policymakers to promote ethical and sustainable use of AI in green marketing. It emphasizes the importance of collaboration among businesses, policymakers, and researchers to ensure responsible AI adoption. |
| Keywords: | Digital marketing, Social-Media, Sustainability, AI Digital marketing Green marketing strategies Social-Media Sustainability, AI, Green marketing strategies |
| Date: | 2023–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04523586&r=mac |
| By: | Wadim Strielkowski; Oxana Mukhoryanova; Oxana Kuznetsova; Yury Syrov |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes sustainable regional economic development and land use employing a case study of Russia. The economics of land management in Russia which is shaped by both historical legacies and contemporary policies represents an interesting conundrum. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia embarked on a thorny and complex path towards the economic reforms and transformation characterized, among all, by the privatization and decentralization of land ownership. This transition was aimed at improving agricultural productivity and fostering sustainable regional economic development but also led to new challenges such as uneven distribution of land resources, unclear property rights, and underinvestment in rural infrastructure. However, managing all of that effectively poses significant challenges and opportunities. With the help of the comprehensive bibliographic network analysis, this study sheds some light on the current state of sustainable regional economic development and land use management in Russia. Its results and outcomes might be helpful for the researchers and stakeholders alike in devising effective strategies aimed at maximizing resources for sustainable land use, particularly within their respective regional economies. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.12477&r=mac |
| By: | Narváez-Chaves, Miguel Ángel; Ramirez-Castro, José Federico; Romero-Ontibón, María Alejandra; Mojica, Laura Valentina Rosero; Riaño-Casallas, Martha Isabel; Palencia-Sánchez, Francisco (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana) |
| Abstract: | Workplace accidents are a major concern for the workforce, as they can have negative impacts on workers' health and well-being. Additionally, these accidents can result in significant costs for companies, reduce productivity, and limit a country's economic potential. This study presents a statistical analysis of the trends in occupational accidents, diseases, and mortality rates among companies and workers affiliated with the General System of Occupational Risks in Colombia from 2020-2023. The study also examines the relationship between these rates and the departmental competitiveness index. The study is based on quantitative and descriptive research using data from the Federation of Colombian Insurers (Fasecolda) and the Private Council of Competitiveness. The data shows an increase in the number of affiliated workers from 10, 564, 334 to 12, 574, 832, and a corresponding increase in affiliated companies from 925, 134 to 1, 154, 294. The occupational accident rates remained stable, but there was a significant decrease in occupational diseases from a rate of 4.8 to 0.8, with an approximate annual decrease of 40%. Similarly, the analysis by geographic region shows that central departments, which have more companies and affiliated workers, had higher accident rates. In contrast, peripheral areas, which have fewer companies and affiliated workers, had higher rates of disease and mortality. Note that these observations are based on objective data and not subjective evaluations. A positive association was identified between accidents and the competitiveness index, and a negative correlation was found between disease and mortality and the competitiveness index. However, these associations were not strong. To formulate public health policies in Colombia, further studies are required with longer follow-up periods to evaluate upcoming trends and the impact of occupational accidents on labor productivity. |
| Date: | 2024–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6h4dn&r=mac |
| By: | Thiago Luis dos Santos Pinto; Nicole Chama dos Santos; Diandra Carolina de Oliveira Vieira da Rocha (Conselho Administrativo de Defesa Econômica (Cade), Departamento de Estudos Econômicos) |
| Abstract: | O presente Documento de Trabalho tem por objetivo mensurar os benefícios esperados da atuação do Cade nos casos de investigação de condutas anticompetitivas e atos de concentração decididos no ano de 2023. |
| Keywords: | Mensuração dos benefícios; Atos de concentração; Cartel; Conduta unilateral. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:atg:wpaper:2024010&r=mac |
| By: | Claudia Ceci; Alessandra Cretarola |
| Abstract: | We investigate the optimal reinsurance problem in the risk model with jump clustering features introduced in [7]. This modeling framework is inspired by the concept initially proposed in [15], combining Hawkes and Cox processes with shot noise intensity models. Specifically, these processes describe self-exciting and externally excited jumps in the claim arrival intensity, respectively. The insurer aims to maximize the expected exponential utility of terminal wealth for general reinsurance contracts and reinsurance premiums. We discuss two different methodologies: the classical stochastic control approach based on the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation and a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) approach. In a Markovian setting, differently from the classical HJB-approach, the BSDE method enables us to solve the problem without imposing any requirements for regularity on the associated value function. We provide a Verification Theorem in terms of a suitable BSDE driven by a two-dimensional marked point process and we prove an existence result relaying on the theory developed in [27] for stochastic Lipschitz generators. After discussing the optimal strategy for general reinsurance contracts and reinsurance premiums, we provide more explicit results in some relevant cases. Finally, we provide comparison results that highlight the heightened risk stemming from the self-exciting component in contrast to the externally-excited counterpart and discuss the monotonicity property of the value function. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.11482&r=mac |
| By: | Carl White |
| Abstract: | A review of 2023 financial results shows that U.S. banks and their peers in Eighth District states generally started this year in sound financial condition. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve District, 8th; banking |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98106&r=mac |
| By: | HARDING Richard; NAUWELAERS Claire |
| Abstract: | The aim of this report is to investigate the potential for harnessing key features of Transformative Innovation to improve the design and the implementation of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies, based on empirical analyses. The study draws on the conceptual framework on this question previously defined for the JRC (European Commission, 2024), and the methodology for case studies, also articulated in the same report. The case study research covered several territories from across the EU and beyond, representing a diversity of approaches to CCA and transformative innovation. The framework takes the form of an analytical grid, structured into seven sections, each of them representing a key feature of the ‘transformative innovation’ approach – features understood as essential conditions for the design and implementation of CCA strategies with this high level of ambition. Each section sets out the main question(s) to be addressed in relation to its respective transformative innovation feature. This Report provides the findings for Iceland, as at September 2023, and is the result of a collaboration between the Joint Research Centre (JRC), DG CLIMA and DG RTD. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc137291&r=mac |
| By: | Miguel Ángel García Díaz |
| Abstract: | En 2023, la situación financiera del componente contributivo de las pensiones públicas en España reflejó un elevado gasto, representando cerca del 30% del gasto público total y el 13, 1% del PIB. A pesar de varias reformas y transferencias estatales adicionales para sostener este sistema, persistió un déficit estructural significativo. Las pensiones, que dependen principalmente de las cotizaciones sociales y otras tasas, aún requirieron transferencias estatales considerables y préstamos para cubrir sus déficits, señalando desafíos continuos en la sostenibilidad financiera del sistema de pensiones. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2024-14&r=mac |
| By: | Niebler, Valentin |
| Abstract: | Das Forschungsmonitoring Nr. 24 gibt einen Überblick über aktuelle Studien und Publikationen zur Arbeitswelt der Zukunft für den Berichtszeitraum September bis Dezember 2023. Es orientiert sich an den Schwerpunkten der Forschungsstelle "Arbeit der Zukunft": Digitalisierung und Arbeit der Zukunft, Standards für digitale Arbeitsformen, Beschäftigung im Wandel, Humanisierung der Arbeit 4.0, Atmende Arbeitszeiten und Zeitarrangements, Soziale Innovation, Künstliche Intelligenz und Sozial-ökologische Transformation. |
| Keywords: | Transformation, Arbeitsmarkt, Plattformarbeit, Digitalisierung, Pandemie |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:290404&r=mac |
| By: | CHOI , Jangho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); CHOI, Yoojeong (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes North Korea-China trade trends and statistics in 2023 to evaluate the extent of North Korea's trade normalization and its performance. North Korea's trade with China increased by more than 120% compared to the previous year as the country declared a COVID-19 Endemic and gradually eased border controls, but did not recover to 2018-19 levels, the year before the outbreak of COVID-19. Imports to China recorded 2.00 billion, 124.1% higher than the 0.89 billion in 2022. North Korea's imports from China in 2023 are estimated to be the maximum achievable given the lack of a full resumption of over-land trade. However, as the negative impact of UN sanctions on the North Korean economy is ongoing, making it difficult to normalize industrial production. North Korea mainly imported raw materials for processing trade (textile and garment raw materials), staple foods (rice and sugar), agricultural materials (fertilizer), and construction materials from China in 2023. North Korea’s exports to China stood at 0.29 billion, up 118.4% from 0.13 billion in 2023. Exports remain at the 16.9% of the level before the tightening of UN sanctions on North Korea, as the country has failed to diversify its products and expand exports of major export items. Exports were highly dependent on specific products, wigs and false eyelashes, a labor-intensive industry, accounting for 57.1% of total exports. In spite of increasing wigs export, North Korea failed to further expand its amount and diversify the export items in the second half of the year. According to the analysis of trade statistics, the main goals of North Korea's 2023 US foreign economic policy are: (1) resuming smuggling trade in textiles and clothing, (2) building irrigation canals in preparation for summer floods, (3) implementing state-led grain distribution, (4) building living houses in a rural area, and (5) increasing metal production for Russian arms exports. Despite the increase in imports from China in the transition to the coronavirus pandemic, it is difficult to say that it has yet led to the recovery of industrial production and economic development. The future of North Korea's trade with the rest of the world in 2024 will be determined by whether North Korea fully opens its borders and improves its relations with China. In 2024, both North Korea's exports and imports are expected to be slightly higher than in 2023. North Korea's exports are unlikely to increase significantly, as North Korea-Russia military cooperation is expected to continue and China is likely to maintain its checks on the growing Sino-Russian alignment. Increased imports will lead to a larger trade deficit, but it will be within North Korea's ability to manage for one to two years. |
| Keywords: | North Korea; North Korea and China Relation; Trade of North Korea; DPRK |
| Date: | 2024–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2024_009&r=mac |