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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Javier Bianchi; Louphou Coulibaly |
| Abstract: | Financial integration generates macroeconomic spillovers that may require international monetary policy coordination. We show that individual central banks may set nominal interest rates too low or too high relative to the cooperative outcome. We identify three sufficient statistics that determine whether the Nash equilibrium exhibits under-tightening or over-tightening: the output gap, sectoral differences in labor intensity, and the trade balance response to changes in nominal rates. Independently of the shocks hitting the economy, we find that under-tightening is possible during economic expansions or contractions. For large shocks, the gains from coordination can be substantial. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic and financial spillovers; Monetary policy cooperation |
| JEL: | E23 E43 E52 E21 E62 E44 F32 |
| Date: | 2024–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:97546&r=mac |
| By: | Brent Bundick; Logan Hotz; Andrew Lee Smith |
| Abstract: | The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates can generate substantial downward pressure on longer-term inflation expectations. We use data on interest rate options and inflation compensation to estimate how the probability that the zero lower bound will bind in the future has weighed on inflation expectations in the United States. Over the 2008–19 period, we estimate that the zero lower bound imparted only a small drag on longer-term inflation expectations of around 10 basis points. We argue that the Federal Reserve's forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases largely offset the potential disinflationary effects of the zero lower bound, even prior to the formal adoption of an average inflation-targeting framework. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; inflation expectations; zero lower bound; forward guidance; asset purchases |
| JEL: | E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:97575&r=mac |
| By: | von Schweinitz, Gregor |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to a better understanding of the important role that credit demand plays for credit markets and aggregate macroeconomic developments as both a source and transmitter of economic shocks. I am the first to identify a structural credit demand equation together with credit supply, aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy in a Bayesian structural VAR. The model combines informative priors on structural coefficients and multiple external instruments to achieve identification. In order to improve identification of the credit demand shocks, I construct a new granular instrument from regional mortgage origination. I find that credit demand is quite elastic with respect to contemporaneous macro-economic conditions, while credit supply is relatively inelastic. I show that credit supply and demand shocks matter for aggregate fluctuations, albeit at different times: credit demand shocks mostly drove the boom prior to the financial crisis, while credit supply shocks were responsible during and after the crisis itself. In an out-of-sample exercise, I find that the Covid pandemic induced a large expansion of credit demand in 2020Q2, which pushed the US economy towards a sustained recovery and helped to avoid a stagflationary scenario in 2022. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian proxy SVAR, credit demand, credit-driven business cycles, granular instrument |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E44 G10 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:281058&r=mac |
| By: | Leo Kaas; Etienne Lalé; Nawid Siassi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a macroeconomic model that combines an incomplete-markets overlapping-generations economy with a job ladder featuring sequential wage bargaining, endogenous search effort of employed and non-employed workers, and differences in match quality. The calibrated model offers a good fit to the empirical age profiles of search activity, job-finding rates, wages and savings, so that we use the model to examine the role of age and wealth for worker flows and for the consequences of job loss. We further analyze the impact of unemployment insurance and progressive taxation for labor market dynamics and aggregate economic activity via capital, employment and labor efficiency channels. Lower unemployment benefits or a less progressive tax schedule bring about welfare losses for a newborn worker household. |
| Keywords: | search and matching, job-to-job transitions, incomplete markets, overlapping generations, wealth accumulation |
| JEL: | E21 E24 H24 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10847&r=mac |
| By: | Kaas, Leo (Goethe University Frankfurt); Lalé, Etienne (York University, Canada); Siassi, Nawid (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a macroeconomic model that combines an incomplete-markets overlapping-generations economy with a job ladder featuring sequential wage bargaining, endogenous search effort of employed and non-employed workers, and differences in match quality. The calibrated model offers a good fit to the empirical age profiles of search activity, job-finding rates, wages and savings, so that we use the model to examine the role of age and wealth for worker flows and for the consequences of job loss. We further analyze the impact of unemployment insurance and progressive taxation for labor market dynamics and aggregate economic activity via capital, employment and labor efficiency channels. Lower unemployment benefits or a less progressive tax schedule bring about welfare losses for a newborn worker household. |
| Keywords: | search and matching, job-to-job transitions, incomplete markets, overlapping generations, wealth accumulation |
| JEL: | E21 E24 H24 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16664&r=mac |
| By: | Nsirimovu, Okwuwada |
| Abstract: | The emphasis is on attaining a swift post-COVID economic recovery in Nigeria. This paper attempts to objectively analyze the complicated link between excessive borrowing, fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and its effect on income per capita in Nigeria. This study offers important insights into the factors influencing income levels in Nigeria by looking at an extensive number of macroeconomic variables, such as capital expenditure, recurrent expenses, domestic and external debt, money supply, crude oil price, inflation, interest rates, GDP growth, and income per capita. The study estimates the model parameters and investigates both long-run and short-run equilibrium relationships using the novel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulation technique, a method renowned for its dependability and consistency in time series analysis. The result shows that present per capita income is strongly impacted by lagged per capita income. The findings demonstrate the stability of income levels across time. Additionally, there are notable short-term impacts of interest rates and the GDP growth rate on per capita income, demonstrating the significance of monetary and fiscal policies in promoting economic expansion and revenue generation. The result emphasizes how inflation and the volatility of crude oil prices affect per capita income, highlighting how susceptible Nigeria's economy is to changes in oil prices and how important it is to control inflation. The analysis finds no evidence of a substantial correlation between capital formation, spending patterns, debt stock, and per capita income, indicating the necessity for a thorough evaluation of resource allocation and debt management strategies. The research results highlight the significance of sustainable economic growth, diversified portfolios, effective debt management, and synchronized fiscal and monetary strategies in order to raise per capita income and advance the well-being of Nigerians. These findings have important ramifications for policy formulation and post-COVID economic recovery efforts in Nigeria. |
| Keywords: | Reflecting, Appetite, Borrowing Volatility, Crude, Rapid, Post-COVID, Recovery, Nigeria, Implications, Per capita Income, Dynamic, ARDL, Simulation, Approach |
| JEL: | A10 A11 |
| Date: | 2023–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119532&r=mac |
| By: | Kim, Ki-Dong; Shim, Gyuhun; Choi, Hyun-Im; Kim, Dong-Hyun |
| Abstract: | This study provides novel insights into the policy effects of timber legality verification methods, specifically Due-diligence (under the European Union Timber Regulation (EUTR)) and Due-care (under the Lacey Act), on coniferous and non-coniferous lumber trade, highlighting their significance in the context of global lumber trade. Timber legality verification plays a pivotal role in the global timber trade. We comprehensively assess the impact of verification methods on coniferous and non-coniferous lumber trade, utilizing two decades of trade data (1997–2017) across approximately 160 countries. We employ the difference-in-differences method based on the gravity model of international trade, utilizing robust export–import data and demographic profiles. Our findings demonstrate that the effect of EUTR on coniferous lumber imports ranged between −0.32% and −0.05%, and that on non-coniferous lumber imports ranged between −0.44% and −0.05%, whereas the effect of the Lacey Act on coniferous lumber imports ranged between −0.93% and −0.09%. Non-coniferous lumber imports remained unaffected. The Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA) led to decreased exports to the EU and US. Our findings hold two key implications. First, Due-diligence exhibits more consistent policy effects than Due-care. Second, supporting VPA-participating countries is crucial for facilitating timber trade. These insights inform timber trade policies and sustainable practices. |
| Keywords: | timber legality requirement system; lumber trad; VPA; gravity model; difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2023–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121106&r=mac |
| By: | Mozgovaya, Oksana (Мозговая, Оксана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Phain, Boris (Файн, Борис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tyomnaya, Olga (Темная, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Vasily (Кузнецов, Василий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this research is valuation the impact of comparative method regulation to the financial results of default electricity suppliers and prepare practical recommendations for improving the methodology of comparative method regulation usage. The research tasks are methodology establishment and estimation of the comparative method regulation effects for default electricity supplier’s financial results, and preparing recommendations for the comparative method optimization. The thematic justification consists in necessity to evaluate the practical results of comparative method implication in different aspects of default electricity supplier’s financial results and further development of the comparative method as part of Russian Energy strategy 2035 and realization of tariff transparency policy. The research methods include factor and data analysis, as well as financial analysis. Information (including financial reports) published by default electricity suppliers in accordance with the information disclosure standards was used as the information base of the research. The scientific novelty of the study is establishment and practical approval of methodology of estimation of the comparative method regulation effects for default electricity supplier’s financial results and prepare recommendations for the comparative method optimization. According to the results of the research the increasement of the big part of default electricity suppliers’ financial stability after transition to the comparative method in activity regulation of default electricity suppliers have been revealed. Prospects for further work on the subject of the study are to develop a methodology for reference regulation in other areas of regulated activity. |
| Keywords: | sales markups, guaranteed (default) electricity supplier, tariff policy, financial results, financial condition, method of analogues comparison, yardstick regulation, electricity retail market |
| JEL: | E64 L94 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220294&r=mac |
| By: | Rostislav, Konstantin (Ростислав, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Radchenko, Darina (Радченко, Дарина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The development of agglomerations in Russia is a priority of spatial policy. To enhance agglomeration effects and accelerate the growth of the Russian economy it is necessary to understand the mechanisms of agglomeration effects. To compare the strength of Marshall agglomeration effects using the Ellison-Glaser-Kerr approach, the degree of concentration of Russian industries was measured using data on all organizations without exception as of January 1, 2020. The estimates show that pairs of industries in Russia tend to be dispersed relative to each other: most industries have significantly lower concentration than would be expected based on the overall location of these industries. On average, of the three external benefits of concentration according to Marshall, Russia's large labor market is the most important. Proximity to suppliers/buyers, their diversity is least related to the placement of industries in the same areas. The example of Kaliningrad region shows that regardless of the method of selection of organizations for comparison, there is no truncation of the distribution traits. Although the choice of the geographical unit of observation determines the estimation of the strength or even direction of the net agglomeration effects, the general conclusion about the lack of selection of enterprises, which we could take for the benefit of concentration, was unchanged. To verify this conclusion, we used various methods of territorial grouping of enterprises and the boundaries of clusters (agglomerations) of enterprises were estimated using the DBSCAN method. The resulting estimates of the relationship of concentration to various sources of its external benefits support those public policies that seek to encourage the development of large urban agglomerations with large and constant markets for skilled labor. When forming particularly dense clusters, it is advisable to set activity requirements for areas with a special entrepreneurial regime, which would be consistent with estimates of the intensity of possible knowledge exchange between industries. |
| Keywords: | agglomerations, agglomeration effects, mechanisms, boundary delimitation, machine learning |
| JEL: | R1 C02 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220295&r=mac |
| By: | Eleonora Trappolini (Sapienza University of Rome); Giammarco Alderotti (University of Florence); Alyce Raybould (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Although the relationship between health and fertility in low-income settings has been well explored by demographers, it is surprisingly lacking from equivalent studies in high-income contexts. In this study, we use data from the 1958 National Child Development Study to understand how self-rated health and BMI reported at age 23 relate to achievement of fertility goals by age 46. We found that worse self-reported health and being outside of the healthy weight BMI category at 23 was strongly associated with having fewer children and underachieving fertility goals set at age 23 by 46. These results remained when controlling for socioeconomic controls like education and union history. Our findings suggest that health in early adulthood is an important determinant, whether direct or indirect, for individuals’ family life course trajectories. This paper strongly endorses the inclusion of health as an explanatory variable for all studies of fertility in high-income contexts. |
| Keywords: | health; fertility; fertility intentions; BMI; self-rated health; life course; United Kingdom |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2024_12&r=mac |
| By: | Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Navarro, Adoracion M.; Uy, Jhanna; Moreno, Neil Irwin S.; Puyat, Vicente Alberto R.; Antonio, Victor Andrew A.; Flaminiano, Clarisa Joy A.; Abrigo, Michael R.M. |
| Abstract: | The second semester issue of the Philippine Journal of Development contains articles on sexual education and behavior, the Oil Price Stabilization Fund (OPSF), digital services trade, and health service coverage. The first article explores how knowledge on sexually transmitted infections affects sexual behavior among subpopulations of female young adults in the country. The second article traces the OPSF history and contextualizes the reasons behind its abolition and the downstream oil industry’s subsequent deregulation. The third article assesses measures for the Philippines’ regional integration in terms of its effects on digital services trade. The last article analyzes trends and disparities in health service coverage using data from the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation on insurance claims, membership information, and accredited facilities, merged with auxiliary datasets from the Department of Health and the Philippine Statistics Authority. |
| Keywords: | Health behavior;sex education;Oil Price Stabilization Fund;oil price regulation;downstream oil industry deregulation;policy reversal;fossil fuel subsidies;price unbundling;strategic oil reserves;digital services trade;WTO GPA;local loop unbundling;data retention policy;copyright enforcement;universal health care;health service coverage;spatiotemporal analysis;PhilHealth |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:pjdevt:pjd_2023_vol__47_no__2x&r=mac |
| By: | Fabrice Hervé (CREGO - Centre de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); Sylvain Marsat (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on a survey of 671 French individual investors, we document for the first time the connection between emotions towards the environment and investment in green funds. Both eco-anxiety and connectedness to nature have a significant impact on deciding to invest in green funds, but, interestingly, do not exert any influence on the amount invested. Hence, investing in green funds seems to be a way to buy a good conscience towards the environment, but the good deed ends there since the amount itself is not linked to environmentally related emotions. |
| Keywords: | Green Investment, Green Funds, Eco-anxiety, Connectedness to nature, Emotions, Behavioral Finance |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04150758&r=mac |
| By: | Jacomien van der Merwe; Tom de Jong |
| Abstract: | Addressing unemployment and income inequalities in transport and land-use policies is important, particularly in South Africa, which is currently experiencing one of the highest unemployment rates and income inequality in the world. This research investigates the horizontal (geographical distribution) and vertical (distribution between income groups) impact of job accessibility within the City of Cape Town. |
| Keywords: | Accessibility, Spatial inequality, Job–housing mismatch, Developing countries, Transport accessibility |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-148&r=mac |