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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Kurt Graden Lunsford |
| Abstract: | I show that business cycles can generate most of the low-frequency movements in the unemployment rate. First, I provide evidence that the unemployment rate is stationary, while its flows have unit roots. Then, I model the log unemployment rate as the error correction term of log labor flows in a vector error correction model (VECM) with intercepts that change over the business cycle. Feeding historical expansions and recessions into the VECM generates large low-frequency movements in the unemployment rate. Frequent recessions from the late 1960s to the early 1980s interrupt labor market recoveries and ratchet the unemployment rate upward. Long expansions in the 1980s and 1990s undo this upward ratcheting. Finally, the VECM predicts that the unemployment rate will be near 3.6 percent after a 10-year expansion and that lower unemployment rates are possible with longer expansions. |
| Keywords: | cointegration; common trend; HP trend; labor flows; longer-run unemployment rate |
| JEL: | C32 E24 E32 J64 |
| Date: | 2023–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:96582&r=mac |
| By: | Juan Paez-Farrell (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK) |
| Abstract: | In a New Keynesian model where the trade-off between stabilising the aggregate inflation rate and the output gap arises from sectoral asymmetries, the gains from commitment are either zero or negligible. Thus, to the extent that economic fluctu- ations are caused by sectoral shocks, policies designed to overcome the stabilisation bias are aiming to correct an unimportant problem. |
| Keywords: | optimal monetary policy, stabilization bias, discretion, commitment, inflation target |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2023018&r=mac |
| By: | Kollmann, Robert; Roeger, Werner |
| Abstract: | The unprecedented global recession triggered by the Covid pandemic was met with a broad range of massive monetary, fiscal and financial policy interventions to support households, businesses and financial institutions. The legacy of the Covid crisis includes record public debt, a global inflation surge, and uneven productivity and employment dynamics across sectors and nations. This special issue of the European Economic Review consists of twelve papers that offer novel perspectives on the economic effects of the Covid shock, and on economic policy responses. All papers were presented at a conference held at the European Commission in Brussels on October 6-7, 2022, organized by the European Economic Review, the European Commission and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). The guest editors of the special issue were Evi Pappa, Robert Kollmann and Werner Roeger. |
| Keywords: | Covid shock, new macroeconomic landscape, public debt, global inflation |
| JEL: | E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 F3 F6 |
| Date: | 2022–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118053&r=mac |
| By: | Constanza Martínez-Ventura; Julián A. Parra-Polania; Tatiana Mora-Arbeláez; Angélica Lizarazo-Cuéllar |
| Abstract: | This document reviews the potential macroeconomic effects of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the use of individuals and businesses. A careful selection of the architecture, and the economic and technological design aspects of this digital form of central bank money that best suit the needs of Colombian economy is made to frame the analytical approach used to study these issues. The most salient results of the related literature are reviewed to establish the consequences of undertaking this initiative. For the set of selected assumptions, we find that the expected macroeconomic consequences are negligible. ******RESUMEN: Este documento revisa los potenciales efectos macroeconómicos de emitir una moneda digital de banco central (CBDC) para uso de las personas y negocios. Se realiza una selección cuidadosa de la arquitectura, y de los aspectos de diseño económico y tecnológico de esta forma de dinero digital que mejor se ajustarían a las necesidades de la economía colombiana, para enmarcar la aproximación analítica que se usa para estudiar estos temas. Se revisan los resultados más destacados de la literatura relacionada para establecer las consecuencias esperadas de adelantar esta iniciativa. Para el conjunto de supuestos seleccionados, encontramos que los efectos macroeconómicos esperados son muy pequeños. |
| Keywords: | CBDC, macroeconomic effects, digital money, financial intermediation, efectos macroeconómicos, dinero digital, intermediación financiera |
| JEL: | E42 E51 E44 E52 E41 G21 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1247&r=mac |
| By: | Kohlstruck, Tobias; Drechsler, Sina |
| Abstract: | Die getroffenen politischen Haushaltsentscheidungen während der Corona-Pandemie haben zu Grauzonen im Regelwerk der Schuldenbremse geführt, zum Beispiel hinsichtlich der Höhe und Dauer der Inanspruchnahme der Ausnahmeregelung und der Buchungspraxis in Bezug auf die Sondervermögen und Kreditermächtigungen. War zu Beginn der Pandemie die fiskalische Ausgangslage mit niedriger Schuldenstandsquote und niedrigen Zinsen ausgesprochen günstig, so hat sie sich seitdem deutlich verschlechtert, da nicht nur die Steuereinnahmen langsamer wuchsen als ursprünglich angenommen, sondern auch die Belastung des Bundeshaushalts durch Zinszahlungen sprunghaft angestiegen ist. Der Übergang von der Inanspruchnahme der Ausnahmeregelung, die mit einer höheren Verschuldung einhergeht, zurück zur Einhaltung der Schuldenbremse, ist durch die gestiegenen Tilgungskosten zusätzlich erschwert. Um die Tragfähigkeit der deutschen Staatsschulden zukünftig zu gewährleisten, besteht dringender Reformbedarf in Bezug auf das Regelwerk der Schuldenbremse, damit diese in die Lage versetzt wird, explizite Staatsverschuldung nicht nur zu begrenzen, sondern auch abzubauen. Nur so kann sichergestellt werden, dass der Staat auch bei zukünftigen Krisen in der Lage sein wird, mit fiskalpolitischen Mitteln angemessen zu reagieren. Daher ist auch aus polit-ökonomischer Perspektive eine Rückkehr zur haushaltspolitischen Normalität dringend geboten. Sollte sich die Schuldenbremse - unabhängig von akuten Krisensituationen - zum Spielball politischer Ausgabenwünsche entwickeln, kann sie ihrem ursprünglichen Zweck nicht mehr gerecht werden. Daher sollte die Politik der Verlockung, beispielsweise der Kreditermächtigungen des Wirtschaftsstabilisierungsfonds für eine Subventionierung des Industriestrompreises zu missbrauchen, widerstehen und zu einer nachhaltigen, glaubwürdigen und transparenten Haushaltspolitik zurückkehren. |
| Keywords: | Öffentliche Finanzen, Staatsschulden, Nachhaltigkeit |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:smwarg:170&r=mac |
| By: | Ioannis Papageorgiou; Ioannis Kontoyiannis |
| Abstract: | A hierarchical Bayesian framework is introduced for developing rich mixture models for real-valued time series, along with a collection of effective tools for learning and inference. At the top level, meaningful discrete states are identified as appropriately quantised values of some of the most recent samples. This collection of observable states is described as a discrete context-tree model. Then, at the bottom level, a different, arbitrary model for real-valued time series - a base model - is associated with each state. This defines a very general framework that can be used in conjunction with any existing model class to build flexible and interpretable mixture models. We call this the Bayesian Context Trees State Space Model, or the BCT-X framework. Efficient algorithms are introduced that allow for effective, exact Bayesian inference; in particular, the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) context-tree model can be identified. These algorithms can be updated sequentially, facilitating efficient online forecasting. The utility of the general framework is illustrated in two particular instances: When autoregressive (AR) models are used as base models, resulting in a nonlinear AR mixture model, and when conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) models are used, resulting in a mixture model that offers a powerful and systematic way of modelling the well-known volatility asymmetries in financial data. In forecasting, the BCT-X methods are found to outperform state-of-the-art techniques on simulated and real-world data, both in terms of accuracy and computational requirements. In modelling, the BCT-X structure finds natural structure present in the data. In particular, the BCT-ARCH model reveals a novel, important feature of stock market index data, in the form of an enhanced leverage effect. |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2308.00913&r=mac |
| By: | Anders Brownworth; Jon Durfee; Michael Junho Lee; Antoine Martin |
| Abstract: | Permissionless blockchains, which support the most popular cryptocurrency networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum, have shown that it is possible to transfer value without relying on centralized trusted third parties, something that is new and remarkable (although perhaps most clearly useful for less developed financial markets). What makes permissionless blockchains able to transfer value without relying on a small number of trusted third parties is the combination of several components that all need to work together. The components themselves are not particularly new, but the combination of these components is more than the sum of its parts. In this post, we provide a high-level overview of these components and how they interact, taking Bitcoin as an example. |
| Keywords: | cryptocurrencies; Crypto; digital currencies; Bitcoin; blockchains; permissionless; trust |
| JEL: | G1 |
| Date: | 2023–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:96570&r=mac |
| By: | Carolina Crispin-Fory; Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra; Diego Alexander Restrepo-Tobón; Diego Vásquez-Escobar |
| Abstract: | Este estudio examina la eficiencia de las Instituciones Prestadoras de Servicio de Salud (IPS) en Colombia, entre 2017 y 2021. Para la estimación se aplica un enfoque de frontera estocástica, empleando una función de distancia orientada a los insumos, con el fin de dar cuenta del carácter multi producto de las IPS. Después de controlar por el tamaño de las entidades, la participación en atención de enfermedades de alto costo y la capacidad administrativa, se encuentra que la eficiencia técnica promedio encontrada es del 75% y no hay ganancias en eficiencia durante el periodo analizado. Además, utilizando la metodología CAMEL se realiza un análisis de la solidez financiera de las IPS y se evalúala relación con los resultados de eficiencia de las entidades. Los resultados encuentran una asociación positiva entre la eficiencia de las IPS, y los indicadores de rentabilidad y liquidez, sugiriendo que las instituciones con una mayor estabilidad financiera y una mejor gestión de recursos exhiben niveles más altos de eficiencia.******ABSTRACT: This study evaluates the technical efficiency of the Health Service Provider Institutions (IPS) in Colombia, between 2017 and 2021. We use a stochastic frontier approach to estimate an input-oriented distance function to account for the multi-product nature of the IPS. After controlling for entity size, participation in high-cost disease care, and administrative capacity, the findings reveal an average technical efficiency of 75% with no efficiency gains during the analyzed period. Additionally, using the CAMEL methodology, an analysis of IPS financial soundness is conducted, evaluating its relationship with efficiency outcomes of the entities. The results identify a positive association between IPS efficiency and profitability and liquidity indicators, suggesting that institutions with greater financial stability and better resource management exhibit higher levels of efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Eficiencia técnica, Funciones de distancia orientada a insumos, Frontera estocástica, IPS, Colombia, Technical efficiency, Input-oriented distance functions, Stochastic frontier |
| JEL: | D24 I12 L25 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1248&r=mac |
| By: | Mr. Philip Barrett; Euihyun Bae |
| Abstract: | This paper is the second update of the Reported Social Unrest Index (Barrett et al. 2022), outlining developments in global social unrest since March 2022. It shows that the fraction of countries experiencing major social unrest events has been stable. Reasons for social unrest can be broadly categorized as stemming from sdebate over constitutional issues, protests connected to specific policies, and other generalized disorder. |
| Date: | 2023–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/168&r=mac |
| By: | Pape Sakho (Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Sénégal); Gaele Lesteven (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Momar Diongue (Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Sénégal); Pascal Pochet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | [Short excerpt] Africa's major cities are growing at a rapid pace. In Dakar, Senegal's capital, for instance, the population has almost doubled in 20 years, reaching 4 million inhabitants today. But in most metropolises, like Dakar, planning isn't keeping up with the expansion. One example of this is the city's transport system. Public transport plays a fundamental role in providing access to any city. However, in many cities, it's lacking, particularly in areas of urban sprawl. This worsens the quality of life for people living in these areas, where there is a shortage of jobs and amenities. |
| Keywords: | Dakar -- Senegal, Daily urban mobility, Clandestine taxi, Informal transport, Transport system |
| Date: | 2023–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04023754&r=mac |