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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2014‒08‒25
159 papers chosen by Soumitra K Mallick Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management |
| By: | Takatoshi Ito (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo, and NBER (E-mail: t-ito@grips.ac.jp )) |
| Abstract: | The four major banks (BOJ, FRB, BOE and ECB) have adopted unconventional monetary policy, or broadly-defined quantitative easing (QE), in the last several years. The broadly-defined QE can be classified into comprehensive easing (CE) and pure-QE. The former is aimed at purchasing assets of dysfunctional markets and the latter is aimed at expanding monetary base to stimulate demands. The objective of this paper is three-fold. First, various QE adopted by four central banks are classified into CE and pure-QE. Second, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is a harbinger for most QE measures in its earlier QE period of 2001-2006. Third, effects of BOJfs QE measures are empirically investigated with focus on the three possible transmission channels with monthly data since January 1999. The long-term interest rate tends to be lower and the yield curve tends to be flattened when the monetary base expands faster than nominal GDP. The yen vis-a-vis the US dollar tends to depreciate when the Japanese monetary base expands faster than the US monetary base. An impact of monetary base expansion on the inflation expectation is not confirmed. Findings are consistent with a view that QE is effective, by lowering the long-term interest rate and the currency depreciation. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative Easing, unconventional monetary policy, inflation targeting, inflation expectation, central bank balance sheet, zero interest rate policy |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:14-e-07&r=mac |
| By: | Burgert, Matthias; Schmidt , Sebastian |
| Abstract: | How does the need to preserve government debt sustainability affect the optimal monetary and fiscal policy response to a liquidity trap? To provide an answer, we employ a small stochastic New Keynesian model with a zero bound on nominal interest rates and characterize optimal time-consistent stabilization policies. We focus on two policy tools, the short-term nominal interest rate and debt-financed government spending. The optimal policy response to a liquidity trap critically depends on the prevailing debt burden. While the optimal amount of government spending is decreasing in the level of outstanding government debt, future monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, triggering a change in private sector expectations that helps to dampen the fall in output and inflation at the outset of the liquidity trap. -- |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy,Fiscal Policy,Deficit spending,Discretion,Zero nominal interest rate bound,New Keynesian model |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E62 E63 D11 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:72&r=mac |
| By: | Fabio Milani (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine); Sung Ho Park (Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the implications of globalization for the dynamics of macroeconomic variables over the business cycle for a small open trade-dependent economy, such as South Korea. We study the impact of globalization through the lens of a structural model. Globalization is modeled as a time-varying degree of openness in the economy. We estimate the model allowing for non-fully rational expectations, learning by economic agents, and incomplete international financial markets. The empirical results show that globalization led to important changes in the macroeconomic environment. Domestic variables have become much more sensitive toward global measures over the 1991-2012 sample. In particular, domestic output and inflation are significantly affected by global output. Fluctuations in Korean output, inflation, and interest rates, which were driven for the most part by domestic shocks in the early 1990s are, by the end of the sample, due in large part (roughly 70%) to global shocks (and shocks that are open-economy in nature). |
| Keywords: | Globalization; Inflation dynamics; Global slack hypothesis; Inflation expectations; Openness; Small open eonomy DSGE model; Korea |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E50 E52 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irv:wpaper:141502&r=mac |
| By: | BLINOV, Sergey |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the possibility of conducting an unconventional monetary policy of Quantitative easing (QE) at high interest rates using the example and experience of Russia. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has raised the key interest rate on three occasions during the 7 months of 2014. The Central Bank has been coming in for criticism for such an increase. However, this criticism is unfair, as sometimes interest rate reduction or failure to raise interest rate result in adverse consequences. Luckily, interest rate is not the only and often far from being the most efficient tool of successful monetary policy. During the hardest phase of the most recent crisis, the central banks worldwide, for example, U.S. Federal Reserve System, resorted to another tool, i.e. Quantitative easing (QE), rather interest rates (which, by that time, had been virtually dropped down to zero). Some experts recognize those to be an important innovation devised by Ben Bernanke, Head of the U.S. Fed during 2006 - 2014. The Central Bank of Russia now has an opportunity of employing a still more innovative policy, i.e. to have “quantitative easing” at high interest rates rather than at zero rates. The experience of the «Golden Decade» (the decade of robust economic growth in Russia between September 1998 and September 2008) proves the efficiency of such monetary policy. The criterion for «sufficiency» of quantitative easing must be the growth rate of the real money supply. In June 2014, the real money supply decreased. That has happened for the first time since December 2009. It shows that there is a need for urgent action on the part of the Central Bank. To bring about steady economic growth, it is required that such quantitative easing be put in place as would make real money supply grow at a pace no slower than the target growth rate for GDP. According to preliminary estimate, the volume of necessary easing would be in the range between RUR 0.5 and 1.7 trillion. Such a program may make itself felt as soon as 3-4 months after its launch. |
| Keywords: | денежно-кредитная политика; политика центральных банков; количественное смягчение; процентные ставки; экономический рост; денежная масса |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E40 E43 E50 E51 E52 E58 E65 G01 N10 O11 |
| Date: | 2014–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58008&r=mac |
| By: | Martha López |
| Abstract: | In this paper we expanded the closed economy model by Bernanke and Gertler (1999) in order to account for the macroeconomic effects of an asset price bubble in the context of a small open economy model. During the nineties emerging market economies opened their financial accounts to foreign investment but it generated growing macroeconomic imbalances in these economies. Our goal in this paper is twofold: first we want to analyze if the conclusions of Bernanke and Gertler (1999) remain in the case of a small open economy. And second, we want to compare the results in terms of macroeconomic volatility of the model for a closed economy versus the model for a small open economy. Our results show that the conclusion about the fact that the Central Bank should not react to asset prices remains as in the case of a closed economy model, and that small open economies are more vulnerable to asset prices bubbles due to capital inflows and the exchange rate mechanism of the monetary policy. Therefore in small open economies the business cycle is deeper. Finally, in the face of a boom followed by a bust in an asset price bubble, macroeconomic volatility would be dampened if the monetary authority focus only on inflation. |
| Keywords: | Exogenous bubble, monetary policy, macroeconomic volatility, DSGE model. |
| JEL: | E32 R40 E47 E52 |
| Date: | 2014–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:012023&r=mac |
| By: | Amélie Barbier-Gauchard; Francesco De Palma; Giuseppe Diana |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of union bargaining power on inflation and employment in a case of efficiency bargaining, in a context of a strategic game between Central Bank and social partners. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, employment, inflation, union bargaining power, efficiency bargaining. |
| JEL: | E24 E52 E58 J52 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2014-15&r=mac |
| By: | Bell, Peter Newton |
| Abstract: | Review of the book titled 'Rethinking Housing Bubbles The Role of Household and Bank Balance Sheets in Modeling Economic Cycles' by Steven D. Gjerstad and Vernon L. Smith. Published by Cambridge University Press in May 2014. |
| Keywords: | Housing, Bubble, Balance Sheet, Cycles |
| JEL: | B53 E02 E44 E58 E65 G00 G01 G1 G10 G20 N10 N2 N20 R20 |
| Date: | 2014–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58024&r=mac |
| By: | Pierre L. Siklos, Matthias Neuenkirch (Wilfrid Laurier University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the policy rate recommendations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council (GC) and the C.D. Howe Institute’s (CDHI) Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since 2003. We find, first, that differences in the median recommendations between the MPC and the GC are persistent but small (i.e., 25 bps). The median MPC recommendation is based on a higher steady state real interest rate. However, the response of the MPC and the GC to output and inflation shocks are, for the most part, comparable. Second, we are also able to examine the individual recommendations for the MPC. Estimates of the determinants of consensus inside the MPC or disagreement with the GC yield some useful insights. For example, disagreements are more likely when rates are proposed to rise than at other times. Equally interesting is the finding that the Bank of Canada conditional commitment on the overnight rate in 2009-10 has a relatively larger restricting impact on the MPC’s median recommendation than the GC’s target rate. |
| Keywords: | Bank of Canada, central bank communication, committee behaviour, monetary policy committees, shadow councils, Taylor rules. |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 E61 E69 |
| Date: | 2014–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:0075&r=mac |
| By: | Christian Friedrich |
| Abstract: | Inflation dynamics in advanced countries have produced two consecutive puzzles during the years after the global financial crisis. The first puzzle emerged when inflation rates over the period 2009-11 were consistently higher than expected, although economic slack in advanced countries reached its highest level in recent history. The second puzzle - still present today - was initially observed in 2012, when inflation rates in advanced countries were weakening rapidly despite the ongoing economic recovery. This paper specifies a global Phillips curve for headline inflation using inflation expectations by professional forecasters and a measure of economic slack at the global level over the period 1995q1-2013q3. Phillips curve data points in the period after the global financial crisis show a significantly different but consistent pattern compared to data points in the period before or during the crisis. In the next step, potential explanatory variables at the global level are assessed regarding their ability to improve the in-sample fit of the global Phillips curve. The analysis yields three main findings. First, the standard determinants can still explain a sizable share of global inflation dynamics. Second, household inflation expectations are an important addition to the global Phillips curve. And third, the fiscal policy stance helps explain global inflation dynamics. When taking all three findings into account, it is possible to closely replicate global inflation dynamics over the post-crisis period. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Inflation and prices, International topics |
| JEL: | E E3 E31 E5 F F4 F41 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-36&r=mac |
| By: | Pablo Federico (BlackRock (E-mail:pablo.federico@blackrock.com)); Carlos A. Vegh (Johns Hopkins University and NBER (E-mail: cvegh1@jhu.edu)); Guillermo Vuletin (The Brookings Institution (E-mail:gvuletin@brookings.edu)) |
| Abstract: | Based on a novel quarterly dataset for 52 countries for the period 1970-2011, we analyze the use and cyclical properties of reserve requirements (RR) as a macroeconomic stabilization tool and whether RR policy substitutes or complements monetary policy. We find that (i) around two thirds of developing countries have used RR policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool compared to just one third of industrial countries (and no industrial country since 2004); (ii) most developing countries that rely on RR use them countercyclically; and (iii) in many developing countries, monetary policy is procyclical and hence RR policy has substituted monetary policy as a countercyclical tool. We interpret the latter finding as reflecting the need of many emerging markets to raise interest rates in bad times to defend the currency and not raise or lower the interest rate in good times to prevent further currency appreciation. Under these circumstances, RR policy provides a second instrument that substitutes for monetary policy. Evidence from expanded Taylor rules (i.e., Taylor rules that include a nominal exchange rate target) supports these mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | macroprudential, reserve requirement, monetary policy, exchange rate, business cycle |
| JEL: | E32 E50 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:14-e-06&r=mac |
| By: | Federico Etro (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Lorenza Rossi (Department of Economics, University Of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | We derive a New Keynesian Phillips Curve under Calvo staggered pricing and price competition. Firms strategic interactions induce price adjusters to change their prices less when there are more firms that do not adjust. This reduces the slope of the Phillips curve and generates an additional source of real rigidity that magnifies the impact of monetary shocks on the economic activity. Endogenous entry amplifies the impact of both monetary and real shocks. We study the design of the optimal Taylor rule in the case of a fixed number of firms and we characterize the optimal monetary policy to restore the social planner allocation and the optimal Ramsey steady state in the case of endogenous entry. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Real rigidities, Sticky prices, Optimal monetary policy, Inflation, Endogenous entry |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2014:11&r=mac |
| By: | Carlos Carrillo-Tudela (University of Essex, CESifo and IZA) and Ludo Visschers (The University of Edinburgh & Universidad Carlos III, Madrid) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In this model three different types of unemployment arise: search, rest and reallocation unemployment. We document new evidence on unemployed workers’ gross occupational mobility and use it to calibrate the model. We show that rest unemployment is the main driver of unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle and causes cyclical unemployment to be highly volatile. The resulting unemployment duration distribution generated by the model responds realistically to the business cycle, creating substantial longer-term unemployment in downturns. Finally, rest unemployment also makes our model simultaneously consistent with procyclical occupational mobility of the unemployed, countercyclical job separations into unemployment and a negatively-sloped Beveridge curve. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, Business Cycle, Rest, Search, Occupational Mobility. |
| JEL: | E24 E30 J62 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2014–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edn:esedps:241&r=mac |
| By: | Leyla Baştav (Department of Legal Affairs, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA), Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyze the structural traits of the US (1990-2011) and Turkish economy (2000-2012) with regards to hysteresis (persistent unemployment) in labor markets. Under the New Keynesian framework two major lines of thought explain unemployment patterns: Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemploymet - NAIRU (or the natural rate of unemployment) and the alternative theory of hysteresis. Following pioneering work of Blanchard and Summers (1986) empirical research has emerged on hysteresis for OECD countries. Following, Jaeger and Parkinson (1991), Roed (1996), Mitchell (1993), Arestis&Mariscal (2000) have conducted studies on unemployment series for various OECD countries. Although with different methodologies, studies diagnose the presence of hysteresis in many countries. Ball in 1997 has revealed significant relation between change in NAIRU, fall in inflation and length of disinflation policies for OECD countries for 1980’s where the only relevant labor market explanatory variable magnifying hysteresis isunemployment benefits. In a similar work dated 1999 Ball detected monetary policy variable as explanatory for NAIRU (and alternatively hysteresis) dependent variable . There are even fewer studies on Turkish labor market hysteresis. While Ener and Arıca (2011) refuted (only refuting work) hysteresis with panel unit root stationarity tests, Gözgör (2012) has detected hysteresis by the same tool of analysis. Bildirici, Ersin, Türkmen &Yalçınkaya (2012), Küçükkale (2002) have also detected hysteresis by statistical analysis and econometric estimation respectively. Nonstationarity of the unemployment series provide us preliminary evidence due to possible presence of hysteresis in both economies. Following, separate wage inflation equations are estimated in the form of New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve (NKWPC) and New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) by OLS and GMM methodologies (for Turkey and USA respectively) with employment (and unemployment) vs rate of change of employment (and unemployment) as explanatory variables Alternatively wage and price equations are further estimated against output gap and growth of excess demand variables. Analysis results did reveal hysteresis patterns for the rate of change of excess output estimations for both economies, whereas employment, unemployment variables turned economically and statistically insignificant/unmeaningful which hint that hysteresis patterns are not due to Insider-Outsider mechanism of labor markets but rather macroeconomic environment and policy which fit better into Long Term Unemployment (human capital) hypothesis framework. Low turnover and shooting long term unemployment are also detected during times of recession in US, whereas in Turkey turnover (total separations) is high during busts with high unemployment along with long run unemployment hike. As opposed to US, pattern in Turkey fits more into human capital framework where rising long term unemployment can be reversed with job creation by appropriate policy measures. Unfavorable shocks and economic policy response or labor market structure may trigger hysteresis according to which economic policy choice should be made: demand management policies vs structural reforms in labor markets. Although there is capturing picture around recessions (and/or depressions) in the form of stylized facts, there is stil need for further research to reach solid empirical background to build up the theoretical dynamics. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian economics, business cycles, labor market structure, hysteresis, time series models |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:230&r=mac |
| By: | Harold Ngalawa |
| Abstract: | Although informal finance forms a large part of their financial sector, nearly all low income countries exclude informal transactions in official monetary data. Usually, informal finance data are nonexistent and occasionally, they are available only from surveys that often occur at irregular intervals and mostly with incomparable data. Using two survey datasets, indigenous knowledge, and elements of Friedman’s data interpolation technique, this study constructs monthly time series of informal credit and interest rates for Malawi. The study argues that datasets constructed in this manner may be used with minimal loss of substance in place of the actual but nonexistent data. |
| Keywords: | Informal financial sector, low income countries, interpolation |
| JEL: | Z13 E43 E44 E51 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:446&r=mac |
| By: | Rosengren, Eric S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | In a speech at the Central Bank of Guatemala, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren discussed “new” monetary policy tools (including forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases) and shared his opinion on how U.S. monetary policy could evolve. |
| Date: | 2014–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbsp:84&r=mac |
| By: | Sarah Rotman |
| Keywords: | Fiscal and Monetary Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Private Sector Development - E-Business Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18418&r=mac |
| By: | Kota Watanabe (Chuo University and University of Tokyo); Tsutomu Watanabe (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | We construct a T¨ornqvist daily price index using Japanese point of sale (POS) scanner data spanning from 1988 to 2013. We find the following. First, the POS based inflation rate tends to be about 0.5 percentage points lower than the CPI inflation rate, although the difference between the two varies over time. Second, the difference between the two measures is greatest from 1992 to 1994, when, following the burst of bubble economy in 1991, the POS inflation rate drops rapidly and turns negative in June 1992, while the CPI inflation rate remains positive until summer 1994. Third, the standard deviation of daily POS inflation is 1.1 percent compared to a standard deviation for the monthly change in the CPI of 0.2 percent, indicating that daily POS inflation is much more volatile, mainly due to frequent switching between regular and sale prices. We show that the volatility in daily inflation can be reduced by more than 2daily inflation rate 0 percent by trimming the tails of product-level price change distributions. Finally, if we measure price changes from one day to the next and construct a chained T¨ornqvist index, a strong chain drift arises so that the chained price index falls to 10-10 of the base value over the 25-year sample period, which is equivalent to an annual deflation rate of 60 percent. We provide evidence suggesting that one source of the chain drift is fluctuations in sales quantity before, during, and after a sale period. |
| Keywords: | scanner data; consumer price index; T¨ornqvist index; chain drift; trimmed means; regular and sale prices; deflation |
| JEL: | E31 C43 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upd:utppwp:021&r=mac |
| By: | Luis Viceira (Harvard Business School); Carolin Pflueger (University of British Columbia); John Campbell (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | The exposure of US Treasury bonds to the stock market has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1960-2011, it was unusually high in the 1980s and negative in the 2000s, a period during which Treasury bonds enabled investors to hedge macroeconomic risks. This paper explores the effects of monetary policy parameters and macroeconomic shocks on nominal bond risks, using a New Keynesian model with habit formation and discrete regime shifts in 1979 and 1997. The increase in bond risks after 1979 is attributed primarily to a shift in monetary policy towards a more anti-inflationary stance, while the more recent decrease in bond risks after 1997 is attributed primarily to an increase in the persistence of monetary policy interacting with continued shocks to the central bank's inflation target. Endogenous responses of bond risk premia amplify these effects of monetary policy on bond risks. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:137&r=mac |
| By: | Samad Sarferaz (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Francesco Furlanetto (Norges Bank, Norway); Francesco Furlanetto (Norges Bank, Norway) |
| Abstract: | We estimate demand, supply, monetary, investment and financial shocks in a VAR identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions on US data. We find that financial shocks are major drivers of fluctuations in output, stock prices and investment but have a limited effect on inflation. In a second step we disentangle shocks originating in the housing sector, shocks originating in credit markets and uncertainty shocks. In the extended set-up financial shocks are even more important and a leading role is played by housing shocks that have large and persistent effects on output. |
| Keywords: | VAR, sign restrictions, financial shocks, external finance premium, housing, uncertainty |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E32 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:14-364&r=mac |
| By: | Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca |
| Abstract: | Building on Calvo (1988), we develop a stochastic monetary economy in which government default may be driven by either self-fulfilling expectations or weak fundamentals, and explore conditions under which central banks can rule out the former. We analyze monetary backstops resting on the ability of the central bank to swap government debt for its monetary liabilities, whose demand is not undermined by fears of default. To be effective, announced interventions must be credible, i.e., feasible and welfare improving. Absent fundamental default risk, a monetary backstop is always effective in preventing self-fulfilling crises. In the presence of fundamental default risk and institutional constraints on the balance sheet of the central bank, a credible monetary backstop is likely to fall short of covering government's financial needs in full. It is thus effective to the extent that it increases the level of debt below which the equilibrium is unique. |
| Keywords: | Debt monetization; Lender of last resort; Seigniorage; Sovereign risk and default |
| JEL: | E58 E63 H63 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9358&r=mac |
| By: | Afanasyeva, Elena |
| Abstract: | Credit boom detection methodologies (such as threshold method) lack robustness as they are based on univariate detrending analysis and resort to ratios of credit to real activity. I propose a quantitative indicator to detect atypical behavior of credit from a multivariate system - a monetary VAR. This methodology explicitly accounts for endogenous interactions between credit, asset prices and real activity and detects atypical credit expansions and contractions in the Euro Area, Japan and the U.S. robustly and timely. The analysis also proves useful in real time. -- |
| Keywords: | Credit,Bayesian VAR,Conditional Forecasts |
| JEL: | C11 C13 C53 E51 E58 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:70&r=mac |
| By: | HASUMI Ryo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the short-term and long-term effects of tax policy changes on the Japanese economy by using a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with endogenous stochastic trends. The parameters of the model are estimated by a usual Bayesian method based on Japanese quarterly macroeconomic data from 1980 to 2010. A simulation analysis of a 1% to gross domestic product (GDP) scale corporate tax reduction has been implemented, in which fiscal neutrality is kept by raising the consumption tax rate. The real GDP increases by about 1.1% and the consumer price index (CPI) (excluding the effect of the consumption tax change) rises by about 0.2% within two years. This result suggests that such tax policy change induces short-term increases in the growth and inflation rate. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:14040&r=mac |
| By: | Sumru Altug; Serdar Kabaca |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of labour input in the context of a business cycle model with a financial friction. We document significant variation in the hours worked per worker for many emerging-market economies. Both employment and hours worked per worker are positively correlated with each other and with output. We show that a search-theoretic context in a small open-economy model requires a small income effect to explain these regularities at the expense of a smaller wage response. On the other hand, introducing a financial friction in the form of a working capital requirement can explain the observed movements of labour market variables such as employment and hours worked per worker, as well as other distinguishable business cycle characteristics of emerging economies. These include highly volatile and cyclical real wages, labour share, and consumption. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; Labour markets; Development economics; International topics; Interest rates |
| JEL: | F41 E44 J40 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-35&r=mac |
| By: | Pınar Kaynak (TOBB ETU, Center for Social Policy Research, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to make a comparison between how countries with inflation targeting (IT) fared compared to their non-IT peers in general during the period of 2003 and 2011, which is based on Kaynak (2012). The dataset, which is used in the analysis, has been provided through the database of International Financial Statistics (IFS) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). First to detect the existing correlation between IT and economic performance outcomes Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression has been used. Second, to filter out business cycle fluctuations, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) dynamic panel data estimator has been used. The results presented here is not necessarily at odds with the prescriptions of the standard IT literature. Despite the evidence demonstrates that IT countries have a better economic performance in general and in the global financial crisis in particular, it does not establish a causality relationship. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting, Generalized Method of Moments, Causality |
| JEL: | C51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:220&r=mac |
| By: | Adam, Klaus; Zhu, Junyi |
| Abstract: | We document the presence of sizable distributional effects from unexpected price level movements in the Euro Area (EA) using sectoral accounts and newly available data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The EA\ as a whole is a net winner of unexpected price level increases, with Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain being the biggest beneficiaries, and Belgium and Malta being the largest losers. Governments are net winners of inflation, while the household (HH) sector is a net loser. HHs in Belgium, Ireland, Malta and Germany incur the biggest per capita losses, while HHs in Finland and Spain turn out to be net winners of inflation. Considerable heterogeneity exists also within the HH sector: relatively young middle class HHs are net winners of inflation, while older and richer HHs are losers. As a result, wealth inequality for the EA as a whole decreases with unexpected inflation, although in some countries (Austria, Germany and Malta) inequality increases due to presence of relatively few young borrowing HHs. We document that HHs inflation exposure varies systematically across countries, with HHs in high inflation EA countries holding systematically lower nominal exposures. -- |
| Keywords: | inflation,redistribution,Euro Area,household survey |
| JEL: | E31 D31 D14 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:100005&r=mac |
| By: | Bagnall, John; Bounie, David; Huynh, Kim P.; Kosse, Anneke; Schmidt, Tobias; Schuh, Scott; Stix, Helmut |
| Abstract: | We measure consumers' use of cash by harmonizing payment diary surveys from seven countries: Australia, Austria, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United States (conducted 2009 through 2012). Our paper finds important cross-country differences, for example, the level of cash usage differs across countries. Cash has not disappeared as a payment instrument, especially for low-value transactions. We also find that the use of cash is strongly correlated with transaction size, demographics, and point-of-sale characteristics, such as merchant card acceptance and venue. -- |
| Keywords: | money demand,payment systems,harmonization,payment diaries,crosscountry comparison |
| JEL: | E41 D12 E58 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:132014&r=mac |
| By: | Ferrarini, Benno (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International Monetary Fund are used as a benchmark against which to derive a comparative measure of the accuracy of ADO forecasts, or skill. ADO is found to be ‘more skillful’ than WEO in estimating both current-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index (CPI) inflation of Asian economies. WEO may have an edge over ADO when it comes to year-ahead GDP forecasts, while ADO’s inflation forecasts tend to be more accurate. By and large, and notwithstanding much heterogeneity across economies and years, both sets of forecasts display a high degree of inaccuracy during the crisis years. |
| Keywords: | economic forecasts; forecast skill; Asian Development Outlook; Asian Development Bank; World Economic Outlook; International Monetary Fund |
| JEL: | E17 E37 |
| Date: | 2014–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0386&r=mac |
| By: | Choy, Marylin (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú); Cerna, Jorge (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | Una de las consecuencias de las políticas monetarias expansivas en los países desarrollados, especialmente de EEUU, fue el ingreso masivo de inversionistas no resientes en activos emergentes. Muchos analistas advertían que estos flujos eran de corta duración y que la eventual normalización de la política monetaria de la Fed llevaría a una salida masiva de inversionistas de los mercados emergentes, especialmente de renta fija. El Perú ha experimentado un ingreso importante de no residentes en el mercado de bonos del gobierno en moneda local (BTP). Sin embargo, el elevado porcentaje de participación de los no residentes en los montos emitidos de BTP conlleva riesgos asociados a la capacidad del mercado de enfrentar una salida abrupta de estos inversionistas, considerando la limitada liquidez de los mercados locales. En este sentido, el objetivo de este documento es analizar el comportamiento de los mercados financieros peruanos y de sus participantes luego que la Fed anunció, en mayo del 2013, la posibilidad del inicio del tapering. El documento pone especial énfasis en el comportamiento de los inversionistas no residentes y las medidas tomadas por el BCRP. |
| Keywords: | Derivados, monedas, bonos, política monetaria |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 F31 G12 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2014-011&r=mac |
| By: | Baglan, Deniz (Howard University); Yoldas, Emre (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | Using data on developing economies, we estimate a flexible semiparametric panel data model that incorporates potentially nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. We find that inflation is associated with significantly lower growth only after it reaches about 12 percent, which is notably lower than the comparable estimate obtained from a threshold model. Our results also suggest that models with restrictive functional form assumptions tend to underestimate marginal effects of inflation on economic growth. We also document significant variation in the effect of inflation on growth across countries and over time. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; economic growth; semiparametric panel data model; series estimation; bootstrap |
| JEL: | C23 O40 |
| Date: | 2014–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-51&r=mac |
| By: | Gamze Demiray; Yasin Kursat Onder; Ibrahim Unalmis |
| Abstract: | Until about more than a decade ago, central banks were traditionally run by individual governors. However that trend has changed and countries have started to establish monetary policy committees. Potential disadvantage of an individualistic committee (i.e., through voting) over collegial decision making is the possibility of confusing the markets by speaking with too many voices so the effects of central-bank's forward guidance are muted. This paper shows that a central bank run by a governor who is acting alone does a better job in terms of \forward guidance". |
| Keywords: | forward guidance, voting, communication |
| JEL: | E58 D71 D78 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1425&r=mac |
| By: | Mustafa İsmihan (Atilim University); Burcu Dinçergök (Atilim University); Seyit Mümin Cilasun (Atilim University) |
| Abstract: | Empirical results on the link between financial development and economic growth is mixed in Turkey. However, existing studies did not take into account the fact that Turkey has experienced endemic political and economic instabilities over extended periods. As a consequence of such instabilities, Turkish economy has shown frequent growth accelerations and collapses. Moreover, Turkish banking sector preferred to finance public borrowing rather than lending to the private sector due to the prevalence of high real interest rates on government bonds particularly during the 1990s. This study, therefore, aims to analyze the role of overall macroeconomic instability and public borrowing on finance-growth nexus in Turkey by using time series econometric techniques over the 1980-2010 period. After taking into account the effects of overall instability and public borrowing, we found a significant finance-growth link. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development, Public Debt, Macroeconomic Instability, Growth, Turkey |
| JEL: | E10 E44 E20 O40 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:271&r=mac |
| By: | Peicuti, Cristina |
| Abstract: | The decades preceding the Great Depression and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis have close similarities. Both decades were characterized by rapid growth without major contractions, by an increase in liquidity, a lack of inflation, and a generalized decrease in risk premiums. Additional similarities included significant changes in the financing of real estate by commercial banks along with a consolidation of the banking sector and high hopes that the efficiency of monetary policy would prevent financial crises. These decades were also characterized by the consolidation of the powers of young central banks (the Federal Reserve System in the 1920s and the European Central Bank in the 2000s), by unsuccessful attempts to control market speculation, by their international dimensions, and by the eruption of crises after the failure of a major American financial institution that could have been avoided. Understanding these analogies help us better identify the causes of the subprime mortgage crisis and prevent history from repeating itself to the extent of such large-scale devastating consequences. |
| Keywords: | financial crisis, Great Depression, credit, subprime mortgage crisis, liquidity,inflation, central bank, commercial bank |
| JEL: | E51 F01 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57883&r=mac |
| By: | Helmut Herwartz; Konstantin A. Kholodilin |
| Abstract: | We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty -- approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts -- to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods are determined and subjected to panel logit regressions conditioning on macroeconomic indicators and expectation uncertainty. Measures of macroeconomic uncertainty improve the ex ante signalling of stock price booms and bubbles. |
| Keywords: | Stock market bubbles, out-of-sample forecasting, consensus forecasts, macroeconomic uncertainty, OECD countries |
| JEL: | G01 G17 E27 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1405&r=mac |
| By: | Bachmann, Rudiger (Goethe University Franfurt); Cooper, Daniel (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | In the United States, 15 percent of households change residence in a given year. This result is based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on gross flows within and between the two segments of the housing market — renter-occupied properties and owner-occupied properties. The gross flows between these two segments are four times larger than the net flows. From a secular perspective, housing turnover exhibits a hump-shaped pattern between 1970 and 2000, which this paper attributes to changes in the age composition of the U.S. population. At higher frequencies, housing turnover is procyclical and tends to lead the business cycle and real house prices. By taking a two-segment view of the U.S. housing market and by carefully documenting the empirics of turnover within and between these segments, the paper provides important moments for and gives empirical guidance to the design, calibration, and evaluation of micro-founded, dynamic, and quantitative models of the U.S. housing market. |
| Keywords: | housing market; PSID; turnover; net and gross flows |
| JEL: | E30 E32 R21 |
| Date: | 2014–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:14-3&r=mac |
| By: | Rosengren, Eric S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | In a speech at Husson University in Bangor, Maine, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren advanced his view that monetary policy should remain highly accommodative until the economy is on more solid footing. He also explored the Fed's "forward guidance" challenges, and whether certain economic behaviors will return to pre‐crisis norms. |
| Date: | 2014–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbsp:83&r=mac |
| By: | Bassett, William F. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Marsh, Blake (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | In the mid-2000s, federal bank regulatory agencies became alarmed by steadily increasing concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) loans at many banks, particularly loans used to finance construction and land development (CLD). In January 2006, they issued guidance that required banks with specific high concentrations in those asset classes to tighten managerial controls. This paper shows that banks with concentrations in excess of the thresholds set in the guidance subsequently experienced slower growth in their CRE and CLD portfolios than can be explained by changes in the health of their balance sheets and economic conditions. Moreover, banks that were above the CRE thresholds also tended to have slower growth in C&I loans but faster growth in loans to households after the guidance was issued. The results highlight the potential for this type of macroprudential regulation to have a significant and broad influence on bank behavior. |
| Keywords: | Credit channel; government regulation; bank lending; real estate |
| JEL: | E44 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2014–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-49&r=mac |
| By: | Sheila C Dow (University of Stirling) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to argue that awareness of the epistemological issues arising from an open-system ontology is critical to understanding the crisis and the policy response, to challenging that understanding and to encouraging a radical policy shift. The argument is couched in terms of belief as an epistemological concept. In particular the paper addresses the misleading impression, persuasively conveyed by mainstream economists, that their argument for austerity is ‘scientific’ and independent of ideology, power and ethics. The resulting widespread belief in austerity policies as scientifically justified has prevented arguments against austerity gaining more traction. The critique of austerity policies would therefore be strengthened by a critique of this rhetorical (mis)representation of economic theorising. |
| Keywords: | fiscal austerity; science; belief |
| JEL: | B4 E1 E62 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1409&r=mac |
| By: | Hale, Galina (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Jones, Peter (University of California, Berkeley); Spiegel, Mark M. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | Using a large sample of private international bond issues, we document a substantial decline in the share of international bonds denominated in major reserve currencies over the last two decades, and an increase in bonds denominated in issuers’ home currencies. These secular trends appear to have accelerated notably after the global financial crisis. Observed increases in home currency foreign bond issuance was larger in countries with stable inflation and lower government debt, and in emerging markets that adopted explicit inflation targeting policies. We then present a model that demonstrates how the global financial crisis could have a persistent impact on home currency bond issuance. Firms that issue for the first time in their home currencies during disruptive episodes, such as the crisis, find their relative costs of issuance in home currencies remain lower after conditions return to normal, due to the increased depth of the home currency market. Empirically, we show that countries with more stable inflation and lower government debt were more likely to benefit from the opportunity to switch to home currency foreign bond issuance presented by the crisis. |
| Keywords: | bond; original sin; inflation targeting; debt; crisis; currency |
| JEL: | E52 F34 F36 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2014-19&r=mac |
| By: | Natasa Bilkic (University of Paderborn); Ben Carreras Painter (University of Paderborn); Thomas Gries (University of Paderborn) |
| Abstract: | As a direct effect of the financial crisis in 2008, public debt began to accumulate rapidly, eventually leading to the European sovereign debt crisis. However, the dramatic increase in government debt is not only happening in European countries. All major G7 countries are experiencing similar developments. What are the implications of this kind of massive deficit and debt policy for the long term stability of these economies? Are there limits in debt-ratios that qualitatively change policy options? While theory can easily illustrate these limits, where are these limits in real economies? This paper examines the relationship between sovereign debt dynamics and capital formation, and accounts for the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on debt sustainability for the four largest advanced economies. We contribute to the literature on fiscal sustainability by framing the problem in an OLG model with government debt, physical capital, endogenous interest rates, and exogenous growth. For the calibration exercise we extract data from the OECD for Germany as a stabilization anchor in Europe, the U.S., the U.K., and Japan for almost two decades before the 2008 crisis. Except for intertemporal preferences all parameters are drawn or directly derived from the OECD database, or endogenously determined within the model. The results of the calibration exercise are alarming for all four countries under consideration. We identify debt ceilings that indicate a sustainable and unsustainable regime. For 2011, all four economies are either close to-, or have already passed the ceiling. The results call for a dramatic re-adjustment in budget policies for a consolidation period and long-term fiscal rules that make it possible to sustain sufficient capital intensity so that these economies can maintain their high income levels. Current conditions are already starting to restrict policy choices. However, the results also make it very clear that none of these economies would survive a second financial crisis such as the one in 2008. |
| Keywords: | fiscal sustainability, primary deficit, debt ceiling, fiscal rules, OLG, calibration, advanced economies |
| JEL: | H62 H63 E62 G01 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:ciepap:56&r=mac |
| By: | Finn Marten Körner (University of Oldenburg - International Economics & ZenTra); Hans-Michael Trautwein (University of Oldenburg - International Economics & ZenTra) |
| Abstract: | It is frequently argued that credit rating agencies (CRAs) have acted procyclically in their rating of sovereign debt in the European Monetary Union (EMU). They are believed to have under-rated sovereign risk in the early years of EMU, when integrated financial markets provided easier access to liquidity, and to have contributed to the recent Eurozone debt crisis by over-rating the lack of (individual) monetary sovereignty that EMU entails for its member states. Yet, there is little direct evidence for this so far. While CRAs are quite explicit about their risk assessments concerning public debt that is denominated in foreign currency, the same cannot be said about their treatment of sovereign debt issued in the currency of a monetary union. We examine the major CRAs’ methodologies for rating sovereign debt and test their ratings for a monetary union bonus in good times and a malus, akin to the ‘original sin’ problem of emerging market countries, in bad times. Using a newly compiled dataset of quarterly sovereign bond ratings from 1990 until 2012, we find some evidence that EMU countries received a rating bonus on euro-denominated debt before the global financial crisis and a large penalty after 2007. |
| Keywords: | Credit rating agencies, rating methodologies, sovereign debt, monetary union |
| JEL: | E42 F32 F33 G24 H63 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zen:wpaper:35&r=mac |
| By: | Briglevics, Tamas (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Schuh, Scott (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | Models of money demand, in the Baumol (1952)-Tobin (1956) tradition, describe optimal cash management policy in terms of when and how much cash to withdraw, an (s, S) policy. However, today, a vast array of instruments can be used to make payments, opening additional ways to control cash holdings. This paper utilizes data from the 2012 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice to simultaneously analyze payment instrument choice and withdrawals. We use the insights in Rust (1987) to extend existing models of payment instrument choice into a dynamic setting to study cash management. Our estimates show that withdrawals are rather costly relative to the benefits of having cash. It takes 3-8 transactions to recoup the fixed withdrawal costs. The reason is that the shadow value of cash decreases substantially with the number of available payment instruments and, correspondingly, individuals are less likely to make withdrawals. |
| Keywords: | money demand; inventory management; payment instrument choice; payment cards; Diary of Consumer Payment Choice |
| JEL: | E41 E42 |
| Date: | 2014–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:14-5&r=mac |
| By: | Andreas Georgiadis; Alan Manning |
| Abstract: | The first contribution of this paper is to use UK monthly firm-level data to show that there is a large amount of transitory volatility in firm-level average earnings from month to month. We conclude that this cannot all be explained away as the consequence of measurement error, composition effects or variation in remunerated hours i.e. we suggest this volatility is real. The second contribution of the paper is to argue that this volatility cannot be interpreted as high flexibility in the shadow cost of labour to employers because of sizeable frictions in the labour market. Indeed we point out that it is the existence of frictions that allow the volatility to exist. Consequently we argue that this volatility would be expected to have only small allocational consequences and that measures of base wages are more useful in drawing conclusions about wage flexibility. |
| Keywords: | Wages, wage flexibility |
| JEL: | E24 J30 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1290&r=mac |
| By: | Ahdi N. Ajmi (College of Science and Humanities in Slayel, Salman bin Abdulaziz University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia); Vassilios Babalos (Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata,Department of Finance and Auditing, Kalamata, Greece); Fotini Economou (Faculty of Economics and Management, Open University of Cyprus, Cyprus); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic effects of uncertainty on the conditional volatility of US-listed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). To this end we employ three widely accepted US REITs indices and the two uncertainty indices constructed by Baker et al. (2013). Our sample is extensive covering the period from 4th of January 1999 to 28th of June, 2013. We employ the recently developed test of causality in variance by Hafner and Herwarz (2006) and then we track the response of REITs conditional volatility to various key events as marked by the evolution of the uncertainty indices. Our results provide some useful insights for the causal nexus between real estate and macroeconomic environment. We provide evidence in favor of a two-way transmission channel between REITs conditional volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. Moreover, equity REITs appear rather sensitive to deteriorating investors' sentiment. Our results entail policy implications for investors, regulators and monetary authorities. |
| Keywords: | Real estate investment trusts, uncertainty shocks, causality, volatility impulse response function |
| JEL: | C22 C32 E52 R31 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201436&r=mac |
| By: | Filipa Fernandes; Alexandros Kontonikas; Serafeim Tsoukas |
| Abstract: | Using a large panel of unquoted euro-area firms over the period 2003-11, this paper examines the impact of financial pressure on firms’ employment. The analysis finds evidence that financial pressure negatively affects firms’ employment decisions. This effect is stronger during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, especially for firms in the periph-ery area compared to their counterparts in the core European economies. We also find that impact of financial pressure on employment is more potent for firms classified as financially constrained and operating in periphery economies during the financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Financial pressure; Firm employment; Euro area; Financial crisis |
| JEL: | J23 D22 E44 G01 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2014_09&r=mac |
| By: | Maito, Esteban Ezequiel |
| Abstract: | The article presents an estimate of the rate of profit in United Kingdom between 1855 and 2009. By isolating some of the countervailing forces specified by Marx of the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, it demonstrates that the law impose despite those countervailing forces, which do not reverse the tendency in the long term. Finally, the article deals with the tendency and economic cycles based on the historical development of the rate of accumulation and the rate of growth of employees. A statistical annex is included at the end. |
| Keywords: | United Kingdom - Rate of profit - Countervailing forces - Marx - Law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall |
| JEL: | B51 E22 P10 P16 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58007&r=mac |
| By: | Ternyik, Stephen I. |
| Abstract: | The physicality of monetary agency is presented in 10 brief theses and 2 basic calculations or simple formulae/equations. Monetary reform is proposed to being guided by the measure of a natural index of clean energy; the text is composed for didactical purposes. |
| Keywords: | money, energy, cycles, crises, traps, sustainability |
| JEL: | B41 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57888&r=mac |
| By: | Leonardo Villar; David Forero |
| Abstract: | "El presente documento está compuesto por cuatro capítulos, excluyendo esta introducción, en donde se cuantifican esas sensibilidades y se estiman las necesidades de recursos tributarios que pueden surgir en consecuencia, para lo cual se utiliza el Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable de Fedesarrollo. Específicamente, el primer capítulo expone la trayectoria de las cuentas fiscales de la economía colombiana, según lo propuesto por el gobierno en el MFMP, describiendo los supuestos macroeconómicos y las sendas proyectadas de ingresos, gastos y balance fiscal. El Capítulo 2 analiza la posibilidad de choques internacionales en el comportamiento de las economías emergentes, en el precio de los productos básicos y en las condiciones de financiamiento internacional. El capítulo 3 examina las razones por las cuales habrá probablemente un incremento sustancial en el nivel de inversión pública con respecto a lo que actualmente se proyecta en el MFMP. El capítulo 4 se explican las otras tres fuentes de probable incremento del gasto asociadas a prioridades de política, en particular el sistema pensional, la salud, y los nuevos gastos que se espera realizar en los sectores agropecuario y rural, considerando allí el papel que podría cumplir un escenario de postconflicto." |
| Keywords: | Sostenibilidad fiscal, Economía Colombiana, Gastos públicos, Política pública, Política fiscal, Cuentas fiscales, Sistema pensional, Salud, Sector agropecuario |
| JEL: | E62 H5 H51 H55 |
| Date: | 2014–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:012020&r=mac |
| By: | Julian A. Parra-Polania; Carmiña O. Vargas |
| Abstract: | We study financial crises in a model of a small open production economy subject to a credit constraint and to uncertainty on the real value of debt repayments. We find that, unlike most of the previous literature, the decentralized equilibrium exhibits underborrowing. The future possibility of reducing the severity of crises gives the incentives to the central planner (CP) to increase both current debt and the crisis probability. We also find that the CP equilibrium can be implemented by means of a tax on debt (a macro-prudential policy) and, only during crises, subsidies on consumption and a tax on non-tradable labor. The welfare gain of moving to the CP equilibrium is small for the baseline scenario but very sensitive to changes in debt volatility and the degree of openness of the economy. Classification JEL: F34, F41, H21. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:839&r=mac |
| By: | Özdemir, Zeynel Abidin (Gazi University, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey); Balcılar, Mehmet (Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics, Famagusta, North Cyprus, via Mersin 10, Turkey); Tansel, Aysıt (Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we first examine the labor force participation rates (LFPR henceforth) for Australia, Canada and the USA and endogenously determine several structural break points in the series and discuss their possible causes. We employ a class of generalized univariate processes, called fractionally integrated processes (Granger and Joyeux, 1980; Hosking, 1981) with structural breaks. They are flexible enough to capture the mean-reverting dynamics in the series. Therefore, they allow modeling the Labor force participation rate movements over time better than the standard time series models. In order to examine the possibility of mean reversion, we use a test developed by Robinson (1994) which permits testing I(d) hypothesis allowing for breaks at known times. The results of our analysis indicate that the LFPRs that we consider are stationary. As a result we can conclude that the informational value of the unemployment rates about the behavior of labor markets and the causes of joblessness are useful in Australia, Canada and the USA. In these countries we can talk about one-to-one correspondence between the long-term changes in unemployment rates and the long-term changes in employment rates and that unemployment rate is a useful indicator of joblessness. |
| Keywords: | Labor force participation rate, LFPR. |
| JEL: | C22 E24 J21 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:308&r=mac |
| By: | Alberto Bagnai (Department of Economics, Gabriele d'Annunzio University) |
| Abstract: | It is frequently claimed that the economic and financial crises in the Eurozone peripheral countries depend on different, country-specific causes. In one case the crisis would depend on a real estate bubble (Ireland, Spain), in another on deceitful government manipulating the national accounts (Greece), in still another on corrupted government postponing essential reforms (Italy). While these claims can always be supported by anecdotal evidence, one may wonder whether a unified framework exists that provides a more consistent explanation of the most massive failure in macroeconomic management since 1929. In this paper we try to interpret the Eurozone peripheral crises in the light of the Minskyan cycle theory, and in particular of its recent applications to developing countries crises. A closer look at the pattern of the macroeconomic fundamentals shows that the different Eurozone crises are actually consistent with this unified framework, thereby providing some important lessons to European policy makers. |
| Keywords: | Eurozone, Financial crisis, Exchange rate regimes, Post-Keynesian economics. |
| JEL: | E12 F36 G01 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ais:wpaper:1301&r=mac |
| By: | Azis, Iwan J. (Asian Development Bank); Yarcia, Damaris Lee |
| Abstract: | In contrast to the situation that preceded the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis, Asia today is a region with excess savings where corporate savings dominate. In the mid-2000s, the extent of liquidity was further amplified by massive capital flows, particularly bank-led flows. The flows were briefly interrupted by the global financial crisis, before debt-led flows began to dominate, following the Quantitative Easing (QE) policy in the United States. Using flow-of-funds data, this study determines that the surge in liquidity in Asian financial systems has changed the behavior of agents and institutions. The general trend shows that agent references for investing in financial instruments have increased as financial liberalization provides more opportunities to do so. This can have economy-wide repercussions, ranging from financial instability to widening income disparity and falling employment elasticity. In the banking sector, an increase in non-core sources of funding influences banks’ asset allocation, with loans increasing rapidly, escalating the risks of pro-cyclicality and asset bubble creation. |
| Keywords: | Excess Savings; International Fund Flows; Financial Risks; Volatility |
| JEL: | E44 F32 |
| Date: | 2014–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbrei:0136&r=mac |
| By: | Tokatlıoğlu, Yağmur (Gazi University, Department of Econometrics, Ankara, Turkey); Saraçoğlu, Bedriye (Gazi University, Department of Econometrics, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | 2008 küresel kriz ile birlikte özellikle az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik sermaye akımlarında artış gözlemlenmiştir. Bu durum, bahsi geçen ülkelerin finansal sistemlerinde kırılganlık yaratmıştır. Ayrıca günümüzde birçok merkez bankasının hedefi, fiyat istikrarını sağlamanın yanında finansal istikrarı sağlama olmuştur. Merkez bankaları, finansal sistemlerinin kırılganlığını azaltacak yeni para politikası araçları arayışlarına başlamışlardır. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası da finansal sistemdeki kırılganlığı önlemek için geleneksel olmayan para politikaları geliştirmeye başlamıştır. Bunlardan biri de rezerv opsiyon mekanizmasıdır. Rezerv opsiyon mekanizması, bankalara Türk lirası zorunlu karşılıklarının belli bir bölümünü yabancı para veya altın olarak tutabilmelerine imkan tanıyan bir uygulamadır. Bu imkanın bankalar tarafından ne kadar kullanılacağı rezerv opsiyon oranı ve rezerv opsiyon katsayısı ile belirlenir. Otomatik dengeleyici olarak kullanılan rezerv opsiyon mekanizmasının döviz kuru ve piyasa likiditesi oynaklığını azaltmada etkisinin olduğu söylenmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası tarafından bir para politikası aracı olarak kullanılan rezerv opsiyon mekanizmasının tanıtılması, işleyişinin açıklanması ve Türkiye’deki finansal sisteme olan etkisinin araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır.Keywords: Rezerv opsiyon mekanizması, geleneksel olmayan para politikası, finansal istikrar |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:291&r=mac |
| By: | Marek Dabrowski |
| Abstract: | Apart from threats to its national security and territorial integrity, Ukraine faces serious economic challenges. These result from the slow pace of economic and institutional reform in the previous two decades, the populist policies of the Yanukovych era and the consequences of the conflict with Russia.The new Ukrainian authorities have made pro-reform declarations, but these do not seem to be supported sufficiently by concrete policy measures, especially in the critical areas of fiscal, balance-of-payment and structural adjustment. Also, the international financial aid package granted to Ukraine has not been accompanied by sufficiently strong policy conditionality.Ukraine urgently needs a complex programme of far-reaching economic and institutional reform, which will include both short-term fiscal and macroeconomic adjustment measures and medium- to long-term structural and institutional changes.Energy subsidies and the low retirement age are the two critical policy areas that require adjustment to avoid sovereign default and a balance-of-payments crisis. Introduction Since the end of 2013 Ukraine has faced a series of dramatic geopolitical, domestic political and economic challenges. First, there was mass protest in Kyivâ??s central square against former president Viktor Yanukovych after he declined to sign an association agreement with the European Union. After collapse of Yanukovychâ??s regime, the internal Ukrainian conflict became internationalised with the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia, and Russiaâ??s active role in a â??proxyâ?? war in the Donetsk and Lukhansk regions. For this reason, international attention is concentrated on geopolitical threats and the violation of Ukraineâ??s territorial integrity. The geopolitical and security challenges are also at the top of the agenda for the new president and government of Ukraine. As result, the economic situation and economic reform are less prioritised, domestically and internationally. However, pressing economic questions must also be addressed. The unsatisfactory results of previous reform rounds were very much responsible for the recent political crisis and the fragility of the Ukrainian state. Most importantly, successful economic and institutional reforms are critical for attempts to consolidate both state and society and to prevent any new authoritarian drift. The new Ukrainian authorities have made general pro-reform declarations, but these do not seem to be supported sufficiently by concrete policy measures, especially in the critical areas of fiscal, balance-of-payment and structural adjustment. The same must be said about the international financial aid package granted to Ukraine in April and May 2014, which has not been accompanied by sufficiently strong policy conditionality. History of half-hearted reform The recent developments in Ukraine are not the first time since independence in 1991 that the country has found itself at a critical juncture. In 1991-92, under Leonid Kravchukâ??s presidency and on a wave of independence enthusiasm, Ukraine had the chance to build new democratic and market institutions as was done, for example, by the Baltic countries. Unfortunately, all the political energy went to giving old Soviet institutions â??newâ?? Ukrainian names. The macroeconomic and social populism of that period led to hyperinflation at the end of 1993. After Leonid Kuchmaâ??s victory in the 1994 presidential election, some market reforms were finally enacted: most prices were liberalised, the exchange rate system was unified, subsidies and the fiscal deficit were reduced (but not eliminated), the issuing of money was brought under control and, finally, a new currency, the hryvna (UAH), was introduced in September 1996. This half-hearted reform process was stalled by a coalition of emerging oligarchs â?? the early winners from partial liberalisation and the macroeconomic disequilibria of early the 1990s, and the beneficiaries of various rents created by them â?? and old-style â??redâ?? directors in industry and agriculture. The next reform push came after the financial crisis of 1998-99 and Kuchmaâ??s re-election in 1999 alongside Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko, the former governor of the National Bank of Ukraine. There was some fiscal adjustment, reform of the management of public finance and attempts were made to restructure the loss-making and heavily corrupted energy sector. However, the political life of Yushchenkoâ??s government was short (17 months) and it was soon replaced by a government that was again dominated by â??redâ?? industrialists and oligarchs. After the Orange Revolution at the end of 2004 and Yushchenkoâ??s election as the third president of Ukraine, there was a political window of opportunity to start serious political, institutional and economic reform. Unfortunately, this was prevented by a political split inside the â??Orangeâ?? camp, in particular, the permanent political infighting between Yushchenko and twice Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (2005 and 2007-10). The only success of the period were entering the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2008 and starting negotiations with the EU on the association agreement. The economic boom of 2000-07 did not create pressure for serious reform either. The macroeconomic situation improved: after 10 years (1990-99) of steep output decline and thanks to reforms that were partially completed at the beginning of the new millennium (especially privatisation of the larger part of the manufacturing industry), a rapid recovery started. This was also fuelled by the 2003-07 global boom (high prices of metals and agriculture commodities, Ukraineâ??s main exports) and an oil boom in Russia. The UAH exchange rate stabilised against the dollar, inflation diminished for a while, and the fiscal deficit and public debt to GDP ratio declined as result of rapid GDP growth. On the institutional front, the economic system could be considered largely a market system, but heavily distorted by pervasive corruption and nepotism, poor governance (which made implementation of market-related legislation and definition of the rules of the game a permanent problem) and state capture by oligarchic groups, similar to most other post-Soviet countries. The era of relative prosperity came to the abrupt end with the global financial crisis in 2008. The era of relative prosperity came to the abrupt end with the global financial crisis in 2008. Ukraine was particularly heavily hit, recording in 2009 a decline in GDP of 14.8 percent (Table 1), one of the steepest falls of all emerging-market economies. Despite a low public-debt-to-GDP level (12.3 percent of GDP in 2007), Ukraine was cut off from international markets because of a current account deficit (-7.1 percent of GDP in 2008), external debt exceeding 50 percent of gross national income, external debt service costs equal to 20 percent of export proceeds, and expectations of devaluation. Between September 2008 and January 2009, the UAH depreciated by almost 60 percent, from 4.85 to 7.70 UAH to the dollar, and then further down to 8 UAH to the dollar in 2009 (see Figure 1). Ukrainian authorities had to ask for the International Monetary Fund Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) in the second half of 2008. Legacy of the Yanukovych era After the victory of Viktor Yanukovych (who had been prime minister in 2002-04 and 2006-07) in the February 2010 presidential election, and the formation of the government of Mykola Azarov, a new reform effort was declared. Legislation was adopted related, among other issues, to social policy (a gradual increase in the retirement age of women from 55 to 60, lengthening the service period needed to obtain a minimum pension and, for various privileged groups, limiting the maxi-mum pension to 10 times the subsistence mini-mum), Ukraineâ??s WTO membership commitments, and preparing the legal ground for the forthcoming EU-Ukraine association agreement (including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, DCFTA). However, corruption and predatory pressure from the narrow oligarchic elite around the president and his family led to a deterioration in the already poor business climate and further declining confidence in state institutions. The continuously deteriorating total investment rate, and the declining gross national savings rate (see Table 1) illustrate well the macroeconomic consequences of dysfunctional governance. Governance failings and authoritarian drift created fertile social ground for the wave of civil unrest that erupted as the Euro-Maidan protest movement in November 2013, after it became clear that the government would not sign the association agreement with the EU (see the next section). Another source of social disappointment was the deteriorating economic situation. After the 2008-09 crisis, Ukraine failed to return to its pre-crisis GDP level (Table 1). In 2010 and 2011, GDP grew by 4.1 and 5.2 percent, respectively (not enough to compensate for the 2009 output decline), followed by stagnation in 2012-13. Stagnation was a result of weak external demand (a consequence of the European debt and financial crisis), increasing domestic imbalances, a deteriorating business and investment climate and increasing Russian import restrictions â?? Russia wanted to discourage the government of Ukraine from signing the association agreement with the EU. The Azarov governmentâ??s populist policies, such as keeping domestic energy prices low and generous wage1 and pension increases, led to deteriorating fiscal and current account balances, a typical manifestation of the twin deficits. These policies also effectively derailed the two subsequent IMF SBAs (of 2008 and 2010), both backed by the EUâ??s Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA). As result, from summer 2013, Ukraine started to face the growing danger of the subsequent balance-of-payments crisis (the two previous balance-of-payments crises happened in 1998-99 and 2008-09). Relations with the EU In 1990s and early 2000s, the EUâ??s relationships with countries of the former Soviet Union other than the Baltic states were based on the bilateral Partnership and Cooperation Agreements (PCA) which included, in the economic sphere, the Most-Favoured Nation clause, and technical, legal and institutional cooperation in such sectors as transportation, energy, competition policy, and some legal approximation in the areas such as customs law, corporate law, banking law, intellectual property rights, technical standards and certification. Ukraine signed the PCA in June 1994 and the agreement entered into force on 1 March 1998. The next steps, after the start of the European Neighbourhood Policy in May 2004 and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine at the end of 2004, were the signing the of the EU-Ukraine Action Plan and the granting of market economy status to Ukraine (both in 2005). The action plan was updated and upgraded into the EU-Ukraine Association Agenda3 in 2009 and then, once again, updated in June 2013 with the focus on implementation of the forthcoming association agreement4. In March 2007, the EU and Ukraine started negotiations on a new enhanced agreement to replace the PCA. At the Paris EU-Ukraine Summit in September 2008, the negotiated agreement was upgraded to the association agreement and included the DCFTA as an integral part. The negotiation was concluded in December 2011, and the text of the association agreement was initialled on 30 March 2012 and signed on 27 June 2014 after a series of dramatic political events in 2013 and first half of 2014. These included the failure of Yanukovychâ??s administration to meet the political preconditions for signing the association agreement stipulated by the EU (related to fair elections, judicial reform and so-called selective justice against opposition leaders5), the subsequent last-minute refusal to sign the association agreement during the Third Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius on 28-29 November 2013, the resulting Euro-Maidan mass protests in Kyiv and regime change (November 2013 â?? February 2014), Russian annexation of Crimea and war in eastern Ukraine (since March 2014). The association agreement, in particular, its DCFTA component, will offer Ukrainian companies partial access to the European single market. At the same time, it might stimulate regulatory and institutional reforms in trade and investment-related spheres, and ease the business climate for domestic and foreign firms. It can also help to bring the countryâ??s legal system, public administration and infrastructure services closer to EU standards (the acquis), depending on the political will and determination to reform on the Ukrainian side. Economic challenges posed by the current crisis The combination of recent dramatic political developments and the deteriorating economic situation has made the current crisis particularly serious and severe. Ukraine faces an existential threat to its independence and territorial integrity caused by Russiaâ??s aggressive policy, and must also overcome the adverse consequences of its past failures in economic and institutional reform to secure its survival and rebuild domestic and international confidence. As result of the violent conflict in eastern Ukraine and the related political uncertainty, real GDP will decline in 2014. According to the IMF estimate built into the SBA assumptions, the decline could reach 5 percent; according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development May 2014 forecast it could even reach 7 percent. Decline in GDP and political turmoil, including war in the east, have undermined seriously the revenue flow to Ukraineâ??s budget and have created additional expenditure needs, especially in the area of national defence and security, humanitarian assistance and infrastructure repair. The same IMF estimates of April 2014 predicted an increase in the general government deficit to 5.2 percent of GDP in 2014 from 4.8 percent in 2013, despite the recommended fiscal adjustment. If the quasifiscal deficit of Naftogaz (the state-owned monopoly in charge of natural gas imports and distribution) is added, the combined deficit will increase from 6.7 percent of GDP in 2013 to 8.5 percent of GDP in 2014. Generally, the IMF projections are based on optimistic assumptions. They might underestimate the downside risks in the national security sphere, potential further disruption to trade relations with Russia and bank recapitalisation needs. In the first half of 2014, the hryvna depreciated from 8 UAH to more than 11.5 UAH to the dollar, i.e. more than 45 percent. In the face of a looming balance-of-payments crisis, such an adjustment was both unavoidable and necessary to improve trade and current account balances. However, it has also put an additional burden on the balance sheets of unhedged banks, companies (including Naftogaz) and households. The ratio of non-performing loans (NPL) to total loans in the banking sector amounted to 23.5 percent at the end of 2013, i.e. before the UAH depreciation. Overcoming these negative tendencies requires not only political stabilisation but also far-reaching fiscal adjustment and structural and institutional reforms to help eliminate macroeconomic disequilibria and unlock Ukraineâ??s long-term growth potential, as we detail in the next section. International aid package The international community supported the new Ukrainian authorities with a generous financial aid package. At the core of this package is the 24-month $17.1 billion IMF SBA, i.e. 800 percent of Ukraineâ??s quota in the Fund6, provided under so-called exceptional access7. The first tranche, which was disbursed immediately after the SBAâ??s approval (on 30 April 2014), amounted to about $3.2 billion, of which $2 billion could be used as budget deficit financing. In April 2014, the IMF SBA was backed by an EU MFA loan of â?¬1 billion available in two instalments and the EUâ??s grant of â?¬355 million (also in two instalments) under the State Building Contract. Recently, the World Bank approved two loans to Ukraine â?? the District Heating Energy Efficiency Project of $382 million and the Social Safety Nets Modernisation Project of $300 million. The US Government provided loan guarantees amounting to $1 billion. Investment loans can be provided by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank. Weak conditionality Even the most generous international aid package can provide only temporary respite to Ukraineâ??s balance of payments. To ensure the sustaining effect, aid must be supplemented by a domestic adjustment and reform package which aims at removing the roots of domestic and external imbalances. This is why the conditionality attached to financial aid should require reform of policies and institutions. However, such conditions are not obvious in the content of the IMF SBA and EU assistance. The IMF SBA said the following reforms should be implemented: Changes to the monetary policy regime, i.e. replacing the de-facto fixed but adjustable peg of the UAH to the dollar by a flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting, with the targeting of monetary aggregates as the intermediate solution in 2014; Financial sector stability, i.e. in-depth diagnosis of Ukrainian banks and their recapitalisation needs (if necessary), and bringing banking regulations into line with best international practices; Gradual reduction of the structural fiscal deficit; Modernisation and restructuring of the energy sector, gradual adjustment of end-user energy prices accompanied by development of the respective social safety net; Structural and governance reforms, improving the business climate. At first glance, this looks like a comprehensive approach that aims to address key challenges faced by the economy of Ukraine. However, detailed proposals raise some doubts. In fact, structural and governance reforms which are essential for improving the business climate and investorsâ?? confidence have not been detailed in the SBA at all. There are no structural bench-marks â?? they are to be the subject of a separate diagnostic study. The memoranda signed between the Government of Ukraine and the European Commission on the occasion of both the MFA and the State Building Contract are a bit more concrete in this respect. They set out some detailed conditions on fighting corruption, avoiding conflicts of interest for public servants, government transparency, changes in public procurement legislation and practices, public access to information, civil service reform, constitutional reform, election law and financing for political parties. However, very important areas such as deregulation of business activity, simplifying public administration structures and procedures, reform of the judiciary and law enforcement agencies and decentralisation (building genuine local and regional self-government) are virtually absent. As we have noted, exchange-rate adjustment was crucial in avoiding a full-scale and uncontrolled currency crisis earlier this year. Similarly, attempts to make the exchange rate more flexible, together with the abandoning of existing restrictions on current account convertibility, should be welcomed. However, moving to inflation targeting in a one-year period does not look feasible, especially in a time of political and security turmoil and continuous fiscal pressure on monetary policy, and considering the limited legal and actual independence of the National Bank of Ukraine. In order to create room for more independent monetary policy and an inflation-targeting regime, serious fiscal adjustment is needed, but on this the IMF programme looks rather weak and unconvincing. The fiscal adjustment target of 2 percent-age points of GDP annually plus another 1 percentage point of GDP of quasi-fiscal adjustment by Naftogaz cannot prevent further rapid increases in Ukraineâ??s fiscal deficit and public debt. According to the SBA targets, the general government deficit will stay at the level of 4.2 per-cent of GDP (without Naftogaz) and 6.1 percent of GDP (including Naftogaz) in 2015. Furthermore, several risks have been evidently underestimated in this projection, as we have noted. As result of lax fiscal policy, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will jump from 40.9 percent in 2013 to 56.5 percent in 2014 and further up to 62.1 percent in 2015. Then it will reduce slowly to 51.9 percent in 2018, under the assumption that the economy will grow by at least 4 percent annually from 2016. So far, the government of Ukraine faced problems accessing private financial markets even at a much lower level of public debt. Similar public-debt funding constraints have been experienced by other post-Soviet and developing countries with similar characteristics to Ukraine. In practical terms, this means that despite the IMF programme, Ukraine will remain cut off from private debt markets for several years, and will be totally dependent on official financial aid. Furthermore, without bolder fiscal adjustment there is no chance to increase substantially the very low rate of gross national savings (6 percent of GDP in 2013), because most private savings are absorbed by the public sector borrowing requirements, or to improve the current account balance. In turn, this will mean continuous balance-of-payments vulnerability and a limited pool of resources to finance investment. Some of the proposed fiscal adjustment measures go in the right direction, such as abandoning the previous populist decision to replace the 20 per-cent VAT rate with two much lower rates. However, the fiscal effects of some one-off steps, for example, fighting tax fraud, might be overestimated. Wage and hiring freezes in the public sector might complicate the badly-needed reform of the civil service and public services such as education and healthcare. The Ukrainian public sector suffers from an excessive number of employees, who are poorly paid and managed. In such a situation, targeting the public-sector wage bill would be a better strategy to create both financial room and incentives for deep restructuring of both public administration and major public-service sectors. In two areas of fiscal adjustment, the SBA looks particularly disappointing: elimination of energy subsidies and social welfare reform. Energy subsidies According to the IMF estimate8 post-tax energy subsidies in Ukraine amounted to 7.6 percent of GDP in 2012. They are much higher than in other countries of central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, apart from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Most subsidies have the quasi-fiscal form (periodical recapitalisation of Naftogaz) and are aimed to support low house-hold tariffs for natural gas and district-heating services (which use natural gas as an input). The price paid by Ukrainian households for natural gas covers only about 20 percent of the cost-recovery level, and is ten times or more lower than the price paid by Lithuanian and Estonian households. Low domestic energy prices are not only responsible for high fiscal and quasi-fiscal deficits and the deteriorating current account balance. They do not help to reduce excessive energy consumption and increase energy efficiency, which in Ukraine is among the lowest in the world and has hardly improved since 1990 (Table 2). Furthermore, low energy prices do not create incentives to increase domestic energy production and invest in energy-saving technologies. They do not allow the elimination of one of the most obvious sources of corruption â?? trading in, and distribution of, subsidised energy imports â?? and they prevent the reorientation of the energy sector towards a competitive market environment. As long as Naftogaz is obliged to deliver gas at price below the cost-recovery level, its reorganisation, de-concentration and privatisation will not be possible. Low energy prices are also counterproductive for reducing Ukraineâ??s energy dependence on Russia. In this context, the discussion on economic sanctions against Russia has limited merit as long as the international community is ready to support financially Ukraineâ??s overconsumption of Russian gas. Unfortunately, despite a correct diagnosis, the IMF SBA sets only a very gradual price adjustment schedule with the aim of eliminating Naftogazâ??s deficit only by 2018. The first round of tariff increases, for gas by 56 percent (from May 2014) and for district heating by 40 percent (from July 2014) looks drastic, but only if one disregards their very low initial level. In fact, the 2014 increase only compensates for the effect of UAH depreciation earlier this year. The next planned rounds of tariffs increases (by 40 percent in 2015 and by 20 percent in 2016 and 2017) might bring them closer to the cost-recovery level, but only if the UAH exchange rate and other cost components remain unchanged. And there is no certainty that the tariffs will reach the cost-recovery level even in 2017. Oversized and inefficient welfare state The general government total expenditure in Ukraine is close to the level of 50 percent of GDP, one of the highest in Europe and among emerging-market economies. In 2014, it might even exceed 50 percent of GDP. The biggest expenditure item is various social benefits (23.1 percent in 2013), of which public pensions account for 17.2 percent of GDP, again one of the highest shares in Europe and the world. The limited pension reform of 2011 (discussed previously) has stopped the growth in pension expenditure, but is unable to ensure system sustainability over the long term in the context of one of the least favourable demographic trends in Europe. The retirement age, both statutory and effective, remains low by international standards and taking into consideration the rapid ageing of Ukrainian society. Numerous group privileges and special pension schemes offer opportunities for earlier retirement and generous benefits. As result, 13.6 million pensioners account for about one third of the Ukrainian population. This implies dependency ratio of 1 or higher. Both the public components of benefits to better-off groups instead of lower-income groups. According to the World Bankâ??s Atlas of Social Protection, only 13.4 percent of total social-protection and labour-programme benefits went to the poorest 20 percent of the Ukrainian population in 2006. What should be done? Our analysis suggests there is an urgent necessity for the new Ukrainian authorities with the help and support of international community to elaborate a complex programme of far-going economic and institutional reforms. These should include both short-term measures of fiscal and macro-economic adjustment (much bolder than currently planned) and medium- to long-term structural and institutional changes. These are closely interlinked. For example, without removing energy subsidies, fiscal and balance-of-payments adjustment looks unrealistic and deeper reform of the energy sector (especially Naftogaz) cannot start, leaving serious distortions and sources of rents and corruption intact. Public pensions are a similar case: without increase in both the statutory and actual retirement age, the fiscal cost of the pension system will further expand, and labour market distortions and widespread informal employment will not be reduced. Fiscal adjustment must play a central role in short-term policies, i.e. in 2014-15 because of deep dis-equilibria and sovereign insolvency risk. The concern that a too-radical fiscal adjustment can hurt growth prospects through the demand channel might not be justified in the Ukrainian economy in which eliminating distortions (for example, in the energy sector) and uncertainties (related to macroeconomic imbalances), and returning business confidence, can boost both investment and consumption. Long-term growth will be impossible without increasing the national savings rate, which requires, in first instance, the elimination of fiscal imbalances. Discussion on the speed of reform must take into account both politics and economics. Obviously, fiscal adjustment which is crucial for rebuilding macroeconomic equilibrium and business confidence, will include politically unpopular measures, especially in relation to energy prices and the pension system. There will be social costs and various special interests will be threatened. How-ever, the unfavourable social consequences for the poor can be mitigated by well-targeted social safety nets. In turn, overcoming the resistance of special interest groups requires political mobilisation around the reform programme. A time of geopolitical confrontation with a powerful neighbour might be considered to be an unlikely opportunity for difficult economic and political reform. However, Ukraine does not have any more time to waste. It must quickly rebuild confidence in its state institutions and economy. Perhaps the current patriotic mobilisation of Ukrainian society in the face of a threat to the countryâ??s independence and after political change can create sufficient window of opportunity for difficult reforms. Past experience tends to illustrate that such a window of opportunity is usually short-lived. Revolutionary mobilisation does not last long. People who do not see visible positive changes become disappointed, and enthusiasm is replaced by apathy and impatience. This opens door to populism and authoritarianism as experienced by Ukraine itself after the failure of the Orange revolution, or recently in Egypt. Easing social pain over longer period does not necessarily make life easier compared to a more radical and upfront reform package. The resignation of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyukâ??s government on 24 July 2014 with the objective of facilitating early parliamentary election in October 2014 might help build a stable pro-reform majority. However, it also means a further delay in implementation of reforms, and additional instability and uncertainty, which will accompany the forthcoming election campaign in the environment of the unresolved conflict in the east. For international donors, the best strategy is to offer a substantial aid package to Ukraine (which has partly happened) but with more stringent conditions on reform compared to the current pack-age, and immediate technical assistance. This means upgrading the existing aid package built around the IMF SBA, EU and World Bank programmes to ensure faster macroeconomic adjustment in short-term and deeper institutional and structural reform in the medium-to long-term, backed by more international resources. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:843&r=mac |
| By: | Anna Sabadash (European Commission – JRC - IPTS) |
| Abstract: | While the EU economy is struggling with the joint consequences of the 2008-2009 recession and the sovereign-debt crisis, the theoretical and policy debate largely revolves around the role ICT play in the structural dynamics of the labour markets. However, despite a wealth of theoretical speculation and empirical evidence, a consensus regarding the employment effect of ICT remains elusive. This report provides an overview of current perspectives on the employment impact of ICT. The main objective of this paper is to convey the need for a careful and open-minded assessment of the relation between employment and ICT. This assessment is needed in order to capture the full complexity of the factors influencing this relation, the transmission mechanisms involved, and the associated labour market effects. Our review devotes equal space to each mainstream economic theory on the complex connection between ICT and employment, while giving greater emphasis to those studies which provide empirical support to sound theoretical grounds. |
| Keywords: | ICT, technological progress, innovation, employment, skills, occupations |
| JEL: | E24 J21 J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc76143&r=mac |
| By: | Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau; Etienne Wasmer (Département d'économie) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that goods-market frictions drastically change the dynamics of the labor market, bridging the gap with the data both in terms of persistence and volatility. In a DSGE model with three imperfect markets - goods, labor and credit - we find that credit- and goods-market imperfections are substitutable in raising volatility. Goods-market frictions are however unique in generating persistence. The two key mechanisms generating autocorrelation in growth rates and the hump-shaped pattern in the response to productivity shocks are related to the goods market: i) countercyclical dynamics of goods market tightness and prices, which alter future profit flows and raise persistence and ii) procyclical search effort in the goods market, by either consumers, firms or both, raises both amplification and persistence. Expanding our knowledge of goods market frictions is thus needed for a full account of labor market dynamics. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1787nsa6d1927a90u4bkkombn4&r=mac |
| By: | Céspedes-Reynaga, Nikita (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú; Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú); Orrego, Fabrizio (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú; Universidad de Piura) |
| Abstract: | Estimamos el indicador de competencia H de Panzar y Rosse (1987) en la industria bancaria en el Perú para el periodo enero de 2001 hasta diciembre de 2013. Encontramos que este índice se encuentra alrededor de 0.5, consistente con una estructura de mercado de competencia monopolística. No obstante, en los últimos años el comportamiento de H sugiere que la competencia en la industria bancaria en el Perú habría crecido. Estos resultados están en línea con la trayectoria creciente del número de bancos y la reducción del margen de intermediación promedio durante el periodo en consideración. Extendemos el análisis a la industria de las cajas municipales y encontramos que el grado de competencia es mayor que en la industria bancaria. Asimismo, el indicador de competencia tiene una tendencia creciente desde inicios de la muestra, aunque se habría estabilizado en los últimos años. Este resultado está en línea con la trayectoria del margen de intermediación y no guarda relación con el número de competidores. |
| Keywords: | Competencia bancaria, concentración bancaria, márgenes de intermediación |
| JEL: | D43 E44 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2014-010&r=mac |
| By: | Bergh, Andreas (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | In most OECD-countries, immigrants have lower employment and higher unemployment than natives. This paper compares nine potential explanations of these gaps. Results are obtained for 21–28 countries using bivariate correlations, OLS-regressions and Bayesian model averaging over all 512 theoretically possible model specifications. Two robust patterns are found. The unemployment gap is bigger in countries where collective bargaining agreements cover a larger share of the labor market. The employment gap is bigger in countries with more generous social safety nets. Five variables have explanatory value in some specifications: Xenophobia, employment protection laws, social expenditure, asylum applications, and the share of immigrants in the population. The education of immigrants and migrant integration policies have no explanatory value. A trade-off seems to exist such that countries with smaller labor market gaps have higher income inequality. |
| Keywords: | Labor market segregation; Immigration; Insider-outside hypothesis |
| JEL: | E24 J51 J60 J71 |
| Date: | 2014–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1036&r=mac |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Pacific Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | The Monitor provides an update of developments in Pacific economies and explores topical policy issues. |
| Keywords: | timor-leste, papua new guinea, nauru, vanuatu, cook islands, palau, solomon islands, marshall islands, kiribati, fiji, tuvalu, micronesia, samoa, tonga, png, gdp, economic growth, inflation, pacific, regional cooperation and integration, trade, consumer price index |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rps135800&r=mac |
| By: | Carroll, Christopher D.; Parker, Jonathan A.; Souleles, Nicholas S. |
| Abstract: | This paper explains why the collection of panel (reinterview) data on a comprehensive measure of household expenditures is of great value both for measuring budget shares (the core mission of a Consumer Expenditure survey) and for the most important research and public policy uses to which CE data can be applied, including construction of spendingbased measures of poverty and inequality and estimating the effects of fiscal policy. -- |
| Keywords: | Panel Data,Consumer Expenditure Survey,Survey Methods |
| JEL: | E2 G1 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:465&r=mac |
| By: | Jacques Pelkmans (Senior Fellow at the Centre of European Policy Studies (CEPS), Visiting Professor at the College of Europe) |
| Abstract: | The initial ‘framing’ (in the summer of 2012) of the ‘genuine EMU’ for the wider public suggested to design an entire series of ‘unions’. So many ‘unions’ are neither necessary nor desirable – only some are and their design matters. The paper critically discusses first the negative fall-out of the crisis for EMU, and subsequently assesses the fiscal and the banking unions as accomplished so far, without going into highly specific technical details. The assessment is moderately positive, although there is ample scope for further improvement and a risk for short-term turbulence once the ECB has finished its tests and reviews. What about the parade of other ’unions’ such as economic union, social union and political union? The macro-economic imbalances procedure (MIP) and possibly the ESRB have overcome the pre-crisis disregard of macro competitiveness. The three components of ‘economic union’ (single market, economic policy coordination and budgetary disciplines) have all been strengthened. The last two ‘unions’, on the other hand, would imply a fundamental change in the conferral of powers to the EU/ Eurozone, with drastic and possibly very serious long-run implications, including a break-up of the Union, if such proposals would be pushed through. The cure is worse than the disease. Whereas social union is perhaps easier to dismiss as a ‘misfit’ in the EU, the recent popularity of suggesting a ‘political union’ is seen as worrisome. Probably, nobody knows what a ‘political union’ is, or, at best, it is a highly elastic notion: it might be thought necessary for reasons of domestic economic reforms in EU countries, for a larger common budget, for some EU tax power, for (greater) risk pooling, for ‘symmetric’ macro-economic adjustment and for some ultimate control of the ECB in times of crisis. Taking each one of these arguments separately, a range of more typical EU solutions might be found without suggesting a ‘political union’. Just as ‘fiscal capacity’ was long an all-or-nothing taboo for shifting bank resolution to the EU level, now solved with a modest common Fund and carefully confined but centralised powers, the author suggests that other carefully targeted responses can be designed for the various aspects where seen as indispensable, including the political say of a lender-of-last-resort function of the ECB. Hence, neither a social nor a political union worthy of the name ought to be pursued. Yet, political legitimacy matters, both with national parliaments and the grassroots. National parliaments will have to play a larger role. |
| Keywords: | Economic and Monetary Union; Banking Union; Political Union; Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | E02 O47 N24 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:coe:wpbeep:34&r=mac |
| By: | Tuhkuri, Joonas |
| Abstract: | There are over 3 billion searches globally on Google every day. This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future unemployment rate in Finland. Predicting the present and the near future is of interest, as the official records of the state of the economy are published with a delay. To assess the information contained in Google search queries, the report compares a simple predictive model of unemployment to a model that contains a variable, Google Index, formed from Google data. In addition, cross-correlation analysis and Granger-causality tests are performed. Compared to a simple benchmark, Google search queries improve the prediction of the present by 10 % measured by mean absolute error. Moreover, predictions using search terms perform 39 % better over the benchmark for near future unemployment 3 months ahead. Google search queries also tend to improve the prediction accuracy around turning points. The results suggest that Google searches contain useful information of the present and the near future unemployment rate in Finland. |
| Keywords: | Big Data, Google, Internet, nowcasting, forecasting, unemployment, time-series analysis |
| JEL: | C1 C22 C43 C53 C82 E27 |
| Date: | 2014–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:31&r=mac |
| By: | Rahel Studer-Suter; Alexandra Janssen |
| Abstract: | To counter the sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc that set in in the wake of the European sovereign debt crisis, on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank announced to enforce a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of CHF 1.20. We find that the simple, though elegant model for the exchange rate within a target zone proposed by Krugman (1991) describes the behavior of the Swiss franc since the inception of this lower bound. Being a prime example of a safe haven currency, the Swiss franc systematically appreciates when global market conditions tighten. But as Krugman's model predicts, the sensitivity of the Swiss franc exchange rate to state variables that indicate such risky times declines as it approaches its lower bound. In particular, the Swiss franc is well described as an S-shaped function of the option prices implied probability for EUR/CHF exchange rate realizations below the lower bound. This state variable not only indicates times of increased global risk, but also quantifies appreciation pressure on the Swiss currency at the lower bound. We conclude that the Swiss franc lower bound helps stabilizing the value of the Swiss currency. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate target zone, safe haven currency, volatility smile |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F31 G01 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:170&r=mac |
| By: | Kaiji Chen; Edouard Wemy |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the importance of investment-specific technology changes in anticipated TFP fluctuations. To this end, we identify two types of news shocks with the maximum forecast error variance approach: news shocks to TFP and news shocks to the relative price of investment. We show in a model with IST diffusion and spillover that the correlation of these two empirically identified shocks can be used to quantify the importance of the IST shocks in aggregate TFP fluctuations. Using postwar U.S. data, we find that these two news shocks are almost perfectly colinear, if both are identified to capture the long-run movement of the corresponding variable. Moreover, these two news shocks can explain a significant, and surprisingly similar fraction of the fluctuations in other important macro variables over business cycles. Our findings suggest that embodied technological changes are the main driver of the anticipated TFP fluctuations via spillover to the productivity of the rest of the economy. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emo:wp2003:1401&r=mac |
| By: | Luis N. Lanteri |
| Abstract: | Las reservas internacionales han sido empleadas como una fuente de protección contra la vulnerabilidad de la balanza de pagos, o alternativamente, para intentar mantener un tipo de cambio real competitivo y promover las exportaciones. En este trabajo se analiza la correlación existente entre los flujos netos de capital y las reservas y se evalúa el efecto de algunos choques macroeconómicos en dicha variable. Las estimaciones se realizan con modelos de VEC (modelo de corrección de errores) y datos trimestrales de la economía argentina, que cubren el período 1994-2013. Los resultados muestran una correlación negativa entre las reservas internacionales y los flujos netos de capital (acumulación de reservas a través de excedentes en la cuenta corriente). A su vez, las políticas fiscales expansivas y los aumentos persistentes y generalizados de precios afectarían negativamente a las reservas. |
| Keywords: | Reservas internacionales; flujos netos de capital; choques macroeconómicos; modelos de VEC; Argentina |
| JEL: | C1 E6 F3 |
| Date: | 2014–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:012029&r=mac |
| By: | Aghion, Philippe; Hemous, David; Kharroubi, Enisse |
| Abstract: | What are the effects of cyclical fiscal policy on industry growth? We show that industries with a relatively heavier reliance on external finance or lower asset tangibility tend to grow faster (in terms of both value added and of labor productivity growth) in countries that implement fiscal policies that are more countercyclical. We reach this conclusion using Rajan and Zingales׳s (1998) difference-in-difference methodology on a panel data sample of manufacturing industries across 15 OECD countries over the period 1980–2005. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:faseco:12585130&r=mac |
| By: | Uluc Aysun (University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL); Ralf Hepp (Fordham University, Bronx, NY) |
| Abstract: | This paper finds that factors determined outside of a country are more closely related to the global bank loans she receives. These loans are more stable when global banks are less competitive and have a higher presence in the recipient country. We obtain our results by using data on the bilateral loans positions of 15 countries and a unique methodology to identify and compare the independent effects of external and internal factors. We find support for our empirical results and draw more detailed inferences for competition and global bank presence by solving a simple model of global banking. |
| Keywords: | Cross-country loans, global banks, competition, overlapping generations model |
| JEL: | E44 F34 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfl:wpaper:2014-01&r=mac |
| By: | Rappaport, Jordan (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City); Willen, Paul S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | The expansion of Federal Housing Administration lending has let households with imperfect credit or the inability to make a large down payment maintain access to mortgage borrowing. Rather than excluding such households, lenders have been applying strict underwriting conditions on all borrowers. Clarifying what constitutes approved lending may help relax credit conditions with minimal increase in risk. |
| JEL: | E66 |
| Date: | 2014–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcq:2014_001&r=mac |
| By: | Carlos Gustavo Cano |
| Abstract: | Recientemente, las alteraciones de las condiciones climáticas, cada vez con mayor frecuencia e intensidad, vienen afectando la producción de alimentos en Colombia y en el resto del mundo, provocando por consiguiente una creciente volatilidad de los precios de los alimentos, la cual se suma al cambio de los hábitos de nutrición de la población en las economías emergentes hacia el consumo de mayores contenidos de proteína animal, y al notable aumento de la producción de biocombustibles a partir de granos y oleaginosas. Como resultado, la presión de los precios de los alimentos se ha convertido en un factor de enorme peso en la determinación de la inflación total. Presión que por representar un típico choque ajeno a la demanda interna, se escapa del alcance de los instrumentos convencionales de la política monetaria. Por tanto, son otras políticas públicas las que deben responder. De un lado, la política agraria en materia de ciencia y tecnología, de la superación del conflicto entre la vocación agroecológica y el uso de la tierra principalmente a través del impuesto predial, y de la inclusión financiera en las áreas rurales. Y del otro, la tributación ambiental, en particular el establecimiento de un impuesto a las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y de un régimen de créditos tributarios originados en la inversiones que sus contribuyentes adelanten en proyectos de ‘adaptación’ enmarcados dentro de objetivos de desarrollo sostenible orientados a mitigar el impacto adverso del cambio climático sobre el recurso hídrico y la producción agrícola. |
| Keywords: | Inflación, alimentos, biotecnología, tierra, impuesto predial, impuesto al carbono. |
| JEL: | E31 O13 L65 |
| Date: | 2014–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:012022&r=mac |
| By: | Rosengren, Eric S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | In a speech in Hartford, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that despite recent improvements in economic conditions, "we remain far from where we need to be." |
| Date: | 2014–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbsp:80&r=mac |
| By: | Tran, Vivian |
| Abstract: | Recent trends in inequality and poverty across Western Canada, a region known for its energy resources, seem to correspond to movements in energy prices, with much of the rise in inequality and decline in poverty taking place during the energy boom from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s. These trends had previously been more pronounced in the provinces containing greater energy resources as compared to the provinces with fewer of these resources. The economic benefits from an energy boom could potentially alter the aggregates of inequality and poverty, depending on how these gains are distributed across the distribution. In a CLSRN paper entitled “The Distributional Impacts of an Energy Boom in Western Canada†(CLSRN Working Paper no. 137), Joseph Marchand (University of Alberta) investigates the relationship between inequality, poverty, and energy booms in Canada, by specifically focusing on the local labor markets of the western region. Overall, the evidence indicates that inequality modestly increased and poverty drastically decreased due to the recent boom. However, there were also a few notable cases where inequality slightly declined and poverty modestly increased. Growth in income inequality has been surprisingly low in Canada over the last fifteen years. But, does this mean that inequality in material well-being has been flat? CLSRN affiliates Sam Norris (Northwestern University) and Krishna Pendakur (Simon Fraser University) find evidence to the contrary in their new study, “Consumption Inequality in Canada 1997 to 2009†(CLSRN Working Paper no. 138). They show that although inequality in household income has been essentially flat over the period 1997-2009, inequality in household consumption has grown moderately over the same timeframe. Since consumption is closer to material well-being than income, this suggests that there has been an important increase in economic inequality. |
| Keywords: | distribution, energy boom, inequality, local labor markets, poverty, consumption, inequality, Canada |
| JEL: | J31 Q33 R23 E21 D63 |
| Date: | 2014–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubc:clssrn:clsrn_admin-2014-35&r=mac |
| By: | Shuvojit Banerjee (Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) |
| Abstract: | Asia-Pacific economies are increasingly concerned about the impact of the public debt crisis in a number of European economies. In recent months, the scale of public debt in Greece in particular, but also in Ireland, Portugal and Spain, has led to credit downgrades and increases in the debt servicing costs of those countries. In response, their Governments have pledged to close their fiscal deficits and decrease their levels of debt in the coming years through stringent programmes of budget cuts, as affirmed recently by the G-20.1 Further compounding the fiscal gap are ageing societies and decades-old weak economic growth which will require additional resources as well as leading to declining tax proceeds. Consequently, the global financial markets have yet to be convinced that the affected countries will be able to reduce budget deficits sufficiently to lower public debt to the level required. The worst-case scenario of sovereign debt defaults in one or more European countries at some point remains a concern. For Asia-Pacific economies, two questions arise: (a) To what degree will these difficulties translate into reduced growth prospects as the region continues its V-shaped recovery from the global economic crisis? While some impact on Asia-Pacific is inevitable given the global linkages of economies in this region, it is important to establish whether the impact will be restricted to a limited moderating of their otherwise robust ongoing recovery, or whether the impact will threaten a downturn in Asia-Pacific akin to a double-dip recession; (b) As the crisis has exposed policy tensions inherent to the European integration process, how will the Asia-Pacific region evolve its exchange rate and fiscal policy coordination? |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb4&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17784&r=mac |
| By: | Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, with inputs from the Social Development Division, ESCAP. Insightful comments and written contributions received from Erlinda Capones, Director IV, National Economic and Development Authority, Philippines, are acknowledged with appreciation. |
| Abstract: | The triple threats to development1 in 2008 and 2009 highlight the need to strengthen social protection systems in Asia and the Pacific. This Policy Brief provides reasons why this strengthening should be a critical component of the region’s development agenda, and shows that a number of innovative initiatives in this area have already been implemented, pointing the way forward. There is a need to build on such initiatives so that their full countercyclical macroeconomic stabilizing effect can be tapped into before threats materialize. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb3&r=mac |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Pacific Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | This economic report on Tonga is the result of a joint project of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Australian Agency for International Development. It is part of ADB’s Pacific Islands Economic Report series, which aims to assist governments in formulating policy by analyzing a country’s economic and socioeconomic situation, key issues, and development prospects. The report provides a longitudinal study of the Tonga economy covering the last 2 decades. |
| Keywords: | tonga, economic growth, growth domestic product, public sector reform, economy tonga, economic forecast tonga, government tonga |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rps135755-2&r=mac |
| By: | Cevriye Aysoy; Cem Aysoy; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | [EN] Using a national panel of housing units, this paper analyzes the rate of nominal rigidities in housing rents in Turkey between 2008 and 2011. We find that, on average, 31.5 percent of the rents did not change from year to year in nominal terms. We then ask if the incidence of nominal rigidity depends on the turnover status of the housing unit. We show that 35.4 percent of the non-turnover units had rigid rents, while for only 17.1 percent of the turnover units rents did not change. We also present evidence that grid pricing is responsible for more than half of the observed nominal rigidities in housing rents. Implications of these results for monetary policy, inflation accounting, and asset prices are discussed. [TR] Bu çalýþmada, TÜÝK tarafýndan 2008-2011 yýllarý arasýnda uygulanan Gelir ve Yaþam Koþullarý Araþtýrmasý verisi kullanýlarak Türkiye’de konut kiralarýndaki katýlýðýn derecesi ölçülmektedir. Nominal kiralarýn yýllýk bazda ortalama yüzde 31,5’inin deðiþmediði bulunmuþtur. Sonraki aþamada, kiralardaki katýlýðýn kiracýlarýn ev deðiþtirme oranýyla iliþkisi incelenmiþtir. Katýlýk derecesi evlerinideðiþtirmeyen birimlerde yüzde 35,4’e kadar çýkarken, ev deðiþtirenlerde bu oran yüzde 17,1’e kadar düþmektedir. Bunun yanýsýra, kiralarda gözlenen katýlýðýn yarýsýndan fazlasýnýn da yuvarlama etkisinden kaynaklandýðý gösterilmiþtir. Ayrýca, para politikasý, enflasyon ve varlýk fiyatlamasýgibi konulardaki etkilerde tartýþýlmýþtýr. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1412&r=mac |
| By: | Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo |
| Abstract: | Using non-linear methods, this paper finds that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. For industrial countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary to one's priors, it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions (i.e., acting countercyclically). In almost as many cases, government spending is actually going down (i.e., acting procyclically). Since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases, the"true"long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2.3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In the case of developing countries, the bias results from the fact that the multiplier for recessions and government spending going down (the"when-it-rains-it-pours"phenomenon) is larger than when government spending is going up. |
| Keywords: | Urban Economics,Economic Stabilization,Public Sector Fiscal Adjustment,Debt Markets,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures |
| Date: | 2014–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6993&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund; World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Mutual Funds Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Non Bank Financial Institutions |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16743&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16526&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund; World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Finance and Financial Sector Development - Deposit Insurance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Mutual Funds Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16713&r=mac |
| By: | Crass, Dirk; Licht, Georg; Peters, Bettina |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role intangible capital plays for economic growth in different sectors in Germany. It consists of two major parts. In the first part, we aim at measuring investment in intangibles at the sector level. We shed light on differences across sectors but also compare these figures with investment in physical capital and with investment in intangibles in the UK as European benchmark. The second part explores the role of intangible assets for stimulating growth at the sector level by performing growth accounting analyses. We find that German firms have boosted investments in intangible capital from 1995-2006 by 30%. Furthermore, results reveal differences in the investment patterns among the UK and Germany. In nearly all sectors investments in design and computerized information are larger in the UK. In contrast, German firms invest a higher proportion of gross output in R&D in all sectors, and advertising is also more common except for the sector trade & transport. Intangible assets have stimulated labour productivity growth in all sectors. The contribution varies between 0.17 (construction) and 0.59 (manufacturing) percentage points. In manufacturing, financial and business services innovative property capital is the most influential type of intangible capital for labour productivity, followed by economic competencies and computerized information. In all other sectors, economic competencies play the most prominent role for labour productivity growth. -- |
| Keywords: | intangible assets,economic growth,sector |
| JEL: | E22 O47 L60 L80 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:14049&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16640&r=mac |
| By: | Devarajan, Shantayanan; Dissou, Yazid; Go, Delfin S.; Robinson, Sherman |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze and derive simple budget rules in the face of volatile public revenue from natural resources in a low-income country like Niger. The simulation results suggest three policy lessons or rules of thumb. When a resource price change is positive and temporary, the best strategy is to save the revenue windfall in a sovereign fund, and use the interest income from the fund to raise citizens'consumption over time. This strategy is preferred to investing in public capital domestically, even when private investment benefits from an enhanced public capital stock. Domestic investment raises the prices of domestic goods, leaving less money for government to transfer to households; public investment is not 100 percent effective in raising output. In the presence of a negative temporary resource price change, however, the best strategy is to cut public investment. This strategy dominates other methods, such as trimming government transfers to households, which reduces consumption directly, or borrowing, which incurs an interest premium as debt rises. In the presence of persistent (positive and negative) shocks, the best strategy is a mix of public investment and saving abroad in a balanced regime that provides a natural insurance against both types of price shocks. The combination of interest income from the sovereign fund, transfers to households, and output growth brought about by public investment provides the best protective mechanism to smooth consumption over time in response to changing resource prices. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Emerging Markets,Investment and Investment Climate |
| Date: | 2014–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6984&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17792&r=mac |
| By: | Gnann, Till; Plötz, Patrick; Kühn, André; Wietschel, Martin |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to reduce green house gas emissions from the transport sector. However, the limited electric range of EVs could impede their market introduction. Still some potential users are willing to pay more for EVs. The combined effect of these and other influencing factors as well as the resulting future market evolution are unclear. Here, we study the market evolution of EVs in Germany until 2020. Our results reveal a great deal of uncertainty in the market evolution of EVs due to external conditions and the users' willingness to pay. We find the future share of EVs in German passenger car stock to range from 0.4% to almost 3% by 2020. Energy prices have a large impact on EV market evolution as a 25% increase in fuel prices would double the number of EVs in stock by 2020 compared to a reference scenario. The high uncertainty of the market evolution implies that policies to foster market diffusion of EVs should be dynamically adaptable to react to changing framework conditions. We find a special depreciation allowance for commercial vehicles and a subsidy of 1,000 Euro as the most effective and efficient monetary policy options. -- |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s122014&r=mac |
| By: | Roland-Holst, David (University of California, Berkeley); Sugiyarto, Guntur (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | After two generations of economic growth, the next phase of structural transformation for Asia will have several salient features. Our results suggest that no single policy orientation, pathway, or even destination will apply to all economies. The main driver for each economy’s structural change will be demand, both domestic and external. These demand sources can have very different sector emphasis, however, and drive domestic resource allocation in different directions. Asian economies with high export shares will be drawn to more intensive primary and industrial resource allocation, while those with larger domestic demand shares will become more service-oriented. Our long-term forecasts for the Asian economies suggest that factor productivity growth continues to be essential to improving livelihoods generally and promoting regional convergence in particular. Of particular importance is potential for reducing regional inequality through more inclusive growth—productivity improvements are more cost-effective in lower-income countries and they have a bigger relative income dividend. Our research also reveals that services are essential contributors to average living standards in high-, medium-, and even low-income Asian economies. For this reason, policies that improve the efficiency of service sector labor allocation, as well as skill and productivity improvements via determined education and training programs, will be essential to sustaining higher living standards and transition to long-term growth sustained by demand from an ever-expanding middle class. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation; factor productivity; Asian financial integration; service sector |
| JEL: | C51 C53 E37 F17 F18 O47 |
| Date: | 2014–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0392&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17793&r=mac |
| By: | Edwin A. Goñi Pacchioni; Adriana Sabogal Moreno; Roberto Asmat |
| Abstract: | En este documento se presentan los principales resultados del levantamiento de línea de base sobre minería informal de oro en cuatro departamentos colombianos (i.e. Antioquia, Bolívar, Chocó y Caldas). Este levantamiento de datos se realizó entre noviembre y diciembre de 2012. La selección de estos departamentos se debe a su importancia dentro de la producción aurífera y al mismo tiempo sus altos niveles de informalidad en la actividad minera. El objetivo de este levantamiento de línea de base es contar con información que permita caracterizar de mejor manera la actividad aurífera informal, conocer la cadena de valor del oro informal, realizar una caracterización socioeconómica del conductor minero, entre otros. Esta línea de base parte del marco muestral de las Unidades de Producción Minera de Oro Informales (UPMOI) del Censo Minero (2010-2011) y busca complementar la información ya existente y servir de base para la elaboración de una estrategia para la formalización minera en el país. |
| Keywords: | Minería informal, Oro, Línea de base, Unidades de Producción Minera de Oro Informales, Minería y energía |
| JEL: | L71 E26 L78 |
| Date: | 2014–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:012021&r=mac |
| By: | Aurélien Kruse; Roshan Darshan Bajracharya; Deb Narayan Mahato |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16633&r=mac |
| By: | Çelik, Orkun (Gumushane University, Department of Economics, Gumushane, Turkey); Selim, Sibel (Celal Bayar University, Department of Econometrics, Manisa, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Ücret farklılıkları konusu, Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerin emek piyasalarında sıkça rastlanan bir sorun olmaktadır. Oluşan bu ücret farklılıkları, piyasa aksaklıklarından kaynaklanabildiği gibi bireylerin nitelik farklılıklarından da kaynaklanabilmektedir. Özellikle kırsal ve kentsel kesimdeki çalışanların eğitim, sağlık hizmetlerine erişimlerinin farklı olması, kalkınma düzeylerindeki farklılıklar ve daha birçok nedenden dolayı bireysel gelir farklılıkları oluşmaktadır. Bireysel nitelik farklılıklarından oluşan ücret farklılıkları, İnsan Sermayesi Teorisi’nde genişçe yer bulmaktadır. Oluşan nitelik farklılığı ücretlere zamanla yansımakta ve bireyler arasında gelir farklılıklarına yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışmada amaç, Türkiye geneli, kentsel ve kırsal kesimdeki kamu ve özel sektörde çalışan kadın ve erkekler arasında oluşan gelir farklılıklarının analiz edilmesidir. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK)’nun hazırlamış olduğu 2011 yılı Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması mikro veri seti kullanılarak elde edilen En Küçük Kareler (OLS) ve Kantil Regresyon (QR) model sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. İşgücü piyasasındaki ücret farklılıkları ve QR modeli kapsamında literatürde yapılmış olan çalışmalar sayıca sınırlıdır. Bu çalışma, sınırlı olan literatüre hem temel insan sermayesi hem de genişletilmiş modeller açısından katkıda bulunacaktır.Keywords: Ücret farklılıkları, İnsan Sermayesi Teorisi, Kantil Regresyon Yaklaşımı |
| JEL: | J30 J31 E24 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:276&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17787&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Private Sector Development - Business Environment Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - Competitiveness and Competition Policy Private Sector Development - Business in Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16681&r=mac |
| By: | John Komlos |
| Abstract: | Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction as the engine of capitalist development is well-known. However, that the destructive part of creative destruction is a social cost and therefore biases our estimate of the impact of the innovation on NNP and on welfare is hardly acknowledged, with the exception of Witt (1996). Admittedly, during the First and Second Industrial Revolutions the magnitude of the destructive component of innovation was probably small compared to the net value added to employment, NNP or to welfare. However, we conjecture that recently the new technologies are often creating products which are close substitutes for the ones they replace whose value depreciates substantially in the process of destruction. Consequently, the contribution of recent innovations to NNP is likely biased upward. This note calls for a research agenda to estimate innovations into their creative and destructive components in order to provide improved estimates of their contribution to NNP, welfare, and employment. |
| JEL: | E01 O10 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20379&r=mac |
| By: | Hasan, Zubair |
| Abstract: | Some recent writings on Islamic finance have resuscitated the old ‘no risk, no gain’ precept from the earlier literature in the wake of current financial crisis. They argue that the basic reason for the recurrence of such crises is the conventional interest-based financial system that rests purely on transfer of risks. In contrast, Islam shuns interest and promotes sharing of risks, not their transfer. The distinction is used to make a case for replacing the conventional system with the Islamic; for that alone is the way to ensuring the establishment of a just and stable crisis free economic system. Islamic banks have faced the current crisis better than the conventional is cited as evidence. This paper is a critique of this line of argument and concludes that the case is for reform not for replacement of the current system marked with increasing duality. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis; Risk-Sharing; Risk-Transfer; Islamic system; KL Declaration |
| JEL: | E6 G2 G28 |
| Date: | 2014–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58006&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17609&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Public Sector Expenditure Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16718&r=mac |
| By: | Johannes Koettl; Elizabeth Mata; Gady Saiovici; Indhira Santos |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Governance - Youth and Governance Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Social Protections and Assistance Economic Theory and Research Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16956&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Banks & Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development-Currencies and Exchange Rates Finance and Financial Sector Development-Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Theory & Research Private Sector Development-Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16644&r=mac |
| By: | Theresa Osborne; Maria Claudia Pachon; Gonzalo Enrique Araya |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Transport Economics Policy and Planning Transport - Airports and Air Services Economic Theory and Research Roads and Highways |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17845&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Public Sector Expenditure Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17364&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Energy - Energy Production and Transportation |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16568&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank; International Monetary Fund |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18242&r=mac |
| By: | W. Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and School of Economics, Australian School of Business, the University of New South Wales); Kevin J. Fox (School of Economics, Australian School of Business, the University of New South Wales) |
| Abstract: | Caves, Christensen, Diewert introduced Malmquist output, input and productivity indexes into production theory in a systematic way. This paper revisits the debate on how to decompose Bjurek’s concept of a Malmquist productivity index into explanatory factors, with a focus on extracting technical progress, technical efficiency change, and returns to scale components. In order to define these components, a reference technology is required. The paper does not make any convexity assumptions on the reference technology but instead follows the example of Tulkens and his coauthors in assuming that the reference technology satisfies free disposability assumptions. The existence and properties of the underlying distance functions of the productivity decomposition are proven under relatively unrestrictive assumptions. The paper provides for the first time a theoretical justification for the geometric average form of the Bjurek productivity index. |
| Keywords: | Productivity indexes, Malmquist indexes, technical efficiency, technical progress, returns to scale, Data Envelopment Analysis, Free Disposal Hulls, nonparametric approaches to production theory, distance functions |
| JEL: | C43 D24 E23 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:swe:wpaper:2014-33&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Transport Economics Policy and Planning Transport Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16708&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Policy Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16793&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16565&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16642&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - E-Business Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - E-Finance and E-Security |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16729&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17353&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - Business Environment Private Sector Development - Competitiveness and Competition Policy Private Sector Development - Business in Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16783&r=mac |
| By: | KAWAMURA Satoshi; TAKEDA Haruhito |
| Abstract: | 1) The second series of the History of Japan's Trade and Industry Policy , comprising 12 books (the first volume with a general overview and the remaining 11 volumes with detailed expositions on the main policy items) were published that not only record objective facts about the drafting process of the policy at the time and the situation of the industry and the economy that required such drafting, but also analyze and evaluate policy for the period 1980 through 2000. 2) However, it is not easy for people to read all 12 books and understand the history of policy. Subsequently, we made an abstract of each book to assist in using it in policy evaluation and policy making. The 12 abstracts describe the main points of the policy clearly and collect policy evaluation, and our hope is that they are utilized as the guide for each book. 3) This PDP is abstract of Takeo Kikkawa, History of Japan's Trade and Industry Policy (10) Natural Resources and Energy Policy , Keizai Sangyo Chosakai, 2011. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:14017&r=mac |
| By: | Mario Gomes |
| Keywords: | Private Sector Development - Competitiveness and Competition Policy Private Sector Development - Business Environment Education - Education For All Access and Equity in Basic Education Education - Primary Education |
| Date: | 2012–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17064&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Private Sector Development - E-Business Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17554&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction - Poverty Impact Evaluation Water Supply and Sanitation - Sanitation and Sewerage Economic Theory and Research Environment - Coastal and Marine Environment Poverty Reduction - Poverty Reduction Strategies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16594&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18650&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18656&r=mac |
| By: | Duc Minh Pham; Deepak Mishra; Kee-Cheok Cheong; John Arnold; Anh Minh Trinh; Huyen Thi Ngoc Ngo; Hien Thi Phuong Nguyen |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Transport Economics Policy and Planning Transport - Airports and Air Services Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - E-Business |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16785&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16688&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18659&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16564&r=mac |
| By: | International Finance Corporation |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Governance - National Governance Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Private Sector Development - E-Business Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16711&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16596&r=mac |
| By: | Papworth, Sarah K.; Kang, Aili; Rao, Madhu; Chin, Suk Teng; Zhao, Huaidong; Zhao, Xiaoyan; Carrasco, L. Roman |
| Abstract: | Tibetan brown bears Ursus arctos pruinosus in the Tibetan Plateau attack and kill livestock and ransack homes for food, causing significant economic costs for local herders. Although a government fund compensates herders for livestock lost to bear attacks in the Tibetan Autonomous Region (China), compensation may not reflect the real cost of losing livestock and payments can be delayed. We investigate whether bear-proof fences are a cost-effective method for reducing bear attacks and livestock losses. In January 2009, 14 bear-proof fences were constructed from wire mesh and steel posts around households which had previously experienced substantial losses to bear attacks in the Nagqu Prefecture of the Tibetan Autonomous Region. These households lost 162 animals to bears in the year before fence construction, whereas just three animals were lost in the year after fence construction. Fences were still standing 4.8 years after completion and any small damage has been repaired by households. For households that suffer substantial losses to bear attacks, bear-proof fences appear to be an effective and cost-saving intervention to reduce human-bear conflict. |
| Keywords: | Conservation Biology, Ecological Economics |
| JEL: | Q5 Q57 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57764&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Environment |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16781&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16563&r=mac |
| By: | Michael Fertig; Martin Kahanec |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU’s 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population. |
| Keywords: | Migration, free movement of workers, European Union, Eastern Partnership, EU enlargement, migration potential, out-of-sample forecasting |
| JEL: | F22 C23 C53 |
| Date: | 2013–10–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:18&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16549&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16529&r=mac |
| By: | Francisco Carneiro; Marina Bakanova |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy and Planning Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Transport |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18931&r=mac |
| By: | Hanspeter Mattes (GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies) |
| Abstract: | Am 27. Juli 1999 verstarb König Hassan II. von Marokko nach 38 Jahren Regentschaft. Drei Tage später erfolgte die Inthronisierung des 36-jährigen Kronprinzen als König Mohammed VI. In seiner ersten Thronrede am 30. Juli 1999 kündigte der neue König politische Reformen an. Der Ankündigung folgten verschiedene Maßnahmen, die nach Beginn der Protestbewegungen des sogenannten „Arabischen Frühlings“ Anfang 2011 ausgeweitet und beschleunigt wurden. Ein konkretes Ergebnis der Proteste, die in Marokko haupt¬sächlich von der Bewegung des 20. Februar getragen wurden, war die Überarbeitung der Verfassung, die im Juli 2011 per Referendum angenommen wurde. Diese Verfassungsmodifikation brachte weitere Verbesserungen in den Bereichen Menschenrechte und Justiz und eröffnete neue Möglichkeiten für eine allmähliche Stärkung des Parlaments. Die politischen Reformen werden seit 1999 von Reformen im Sicherheitsbereich flankiert, deren Zielrichtung jedoch primär die Effizienzsteigerung der königlichen Streitkräfte, der Polizei, der Gendarmerie und des Nachrichtendienstes bei der Stärkung der Landesverteidigung und der Bekämpfung von Terrorismus und Kriminalität ist. Eine Neuregelung der Verantwortlichkeit und Rechenschaftspflicht des Sicherheitsbereiches zugunsten von Regierung und Parlament ist in der aktuellen politischen Umbauphase Marokkos und vor dem Hintergrund der gegenwärtigen sicherheitspolitischen Herausforderungen in der Maghrebregion durch islamistische terroristische Gruppen (noch) nicht intendiert und folg¬lich auch in absehbarer Zeit nicht zu erwarten. |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:248&r=mac |
| By: | Karen Stephanie Coulibaly; Mame Fatou Diagne |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Investment and Investment Climate Public Sector Expenditure Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18934&r=mac |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Office of Regional Economic Integration, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | The Asian Development Bank has been working closely with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, and the Republic of Korea—collectively known as ASEAN+3—to promote the development of local currency bond markets in the region through the Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI). ABMI was launched in 2002 to help channel regional savings toward long-term investments within the region. ABMI was established with the goal of improving the resilience of the region’s financial systems by helping reduce the double mismatches (maturity and currency) of companies’ investment financing. Since the launch of ABMI, local currency bond markets in the region have grown rapidly in recent decades in terms of size and diversity of issuers. This study was undertaken under ABMI and funded by the Government of Japan. It focuses on measures to expand the investor base for local currency bonds in ASEAN, the PRC, and the Republic of Korea, with the goal of generating greater variety in investment objectives and a wider range of investment strategies. |
| Keywords: | local currency bonds, investors, regional integration, ASEAN+3, ASEAN, asian bonds, asian bond markets initiative, mutual funds, buy and hold portfolios, emerging market debt, financial institutions, government securities, china, prc, indonesia, korea, malaysia, philippines, singapore, thailand |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt15462-2&r=mac |
| By: | Altantsetseg Shiilegmaa; Khandtsooj Gombosuren; Gregory Smith |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16495&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Education - Education Reform and Management Science and Technology Development - Science Policies Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor - Employment and Unemployment Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Knowledge Economy |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16750&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Policy Banks and Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16684&r=mac |
| By: | Artuc, Erhan; Iootty, Mariana; Pirlea, Ana Florina |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the gravity model to analyze whether the varying export performance of Croatian counties can be explained by their proximity to border gates, ports, and other county-specific characteristics. The analysis finds that longer distances to border gates increase trade frictions significantly for many product categories, although these frictions have been decreasing between 2007 and 2012. The paper analyzes the county specific factors that are associated with variation in export performance, net of distance. Results show that exports are strongly and positively correlated with motorway and road density, the size of the labor force, low-skill ratio, and the number of patents. These variables are also associated with a greater diversity of exports in terms of products and destinations. Several general policy implications are highlighted. The significant association between motorway and road density and export volume, number of destinations, as well as the diversity of exported products may indicate that improvements in connectivity and facilitation of transport could still play a significant role in enhancing regional trade outcomes. Similarly, good performance in research and development may significantly help to spur competitiveness and allow local producers to enter new markets in products and destinations, which in turn can increase the level of diversification and boost resilience to global economic shocks. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Trade Policy,Tax Law |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6999&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy and Planning Industry - Common Carriers Industry Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - E-Business Transport and Trade Logistics Transport Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18739&r=mac |
| By: | Vahap Taştan (Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat, İstanbul) |
| Abstract: | Güney Gaz Koridoru, Avrupa Birliği’nin enerji politikalarında önemli bir yere sahiptir. Alhaiji’ye (2007) göre, 1970’lerdeki petrol krizlerinin literatüre en büyük katkısı “Enerji Arzı Güvenliğidir”. Aynı çalışmada Enerji Güvenliği, batılı devletlerin kullandığı bir kavram olarak ifade edilmektedir. Avrupa Birliği’nin özellikle Rusya-Ukrayna krizinden sonra konuya bakış açısı değişmiştir. Ortadoğu’daki siyasi istikrarsızlık ortamı ve Rusya-Gazprom’un politikaları, Avrupa Birliği’ni güvenli enerji arzı arayışına itmiştir. Zira Avrupa Birliği Gazprom’un politikalarından son derece rahatsızdır. Ayrıca Avrupa’nın kullandığı gazın, Rusya’dan ithal edilen kısmının %30’u geçmesi Enerji Güvenliği açısından önemli bir tehdit unsurudur. Bu bağlamda Güney Gaz Koridoru, yeni ve güvenli arz kaynağı olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Türkiye ise “Yeni Enerji Düzeni’nde” transit ülke olarak artık masada yer almaktadır.Çalışma, Güney Gaz Koridoru’nun Yeni Enerji Düzeni’nde önemini “oyun teorik” çerçevede tartışmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ayrıca Gazprom-Ukrayna krizi ve Güney Gaz Koridoruna karşı strateji olarak karşımıza çıkan Güney Akım’ın da varlığı farklı modeller çerçevesinde irdelenecektir. |
| Keywords: | Enerji, Doğalgaz, Arz Güvenliği, Rusya, Güney Kafkasya, Türkiye |
| JEL: | Q41 Q43 C73 F02 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:240&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring and Evaluation Public Sector Expenditure Policy Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16701&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Banks and Banking Reform Public Sector Economics Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18944&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17002&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Economics Social Development - Social Accountability Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18960&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16720&r=mac |
| By: | Edirisa Nseera |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to understand the relative importance of Agriculture, Textile and Diamond sectors in Lesotho by examining their growth and istributional impact.The results show that agriculture and textiles are important as key sectors of the economy. These sectors are highly integrated with relatively high forward and backward linkages. Diamonds, however, remains a backward oriented sector mainly having strong linkages as a purchaser of inputs from other sectors which limits its influence on the rest of the economy. This means that investment in highly integrated sectors of agriculture and textiles has a relatively higher potential to spur growth in other sectors of the economy. Additionally, agriculture has the greatest impact on value added further underlining its relativeimportance and centrality in generating growth.In terms of distribution, it emerges that there is a huge gap between the rural and urban areas and the greatest benefits accrue to the later. The istribution of income is skewed towards the urban household groups which call for policies to redress the inequalities in order to benefit the rural areas which harbour the majority of the poor households.Cognizant that unemployment is likely to hit those in the lower income distribution than others, it has an inequality generating effect. In this respect, agriculture which employs majority of the poor has the greatest impact on improving the incomes of the rural households given that it has the highest pure indirect effects. Given that agriculture has high backward and forward linkages as well as a relatively higher impact on value added compared to its counterparts, progressive redistribution and growth are not in conflict.In view of this, part of the support should be tailored towards removing the critical constraints in the sector. This will allow the sector to quickly respond to exogenous increase in demand. Doing nothing to eliminating constraints to agriculture will have economy wide impact to sectors benefiting from its extensive backward and forward linkages as well as on distribution. Similarly, textile remains better placed compared to diamonds to simultaneously support growth and distribution. The present pattern of sector support tends to make income distribution skewed because it is an outcome of sector spending and notthe multiplier system. |
| Date: | 2014–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2137&r=mac |
| By: | Vincent Leyaro; Priscilla Twumasi Baffour; Oliver Morrissey; Trudy Owens |
| Abstract: | This paper presents analysis of urban areas in the Tanzania Integrated Labour Force Survey (ILFS) for 2000/01 and 2006 and the Urban Household Worker Survey (UHWS) for 2004, 2005 and 2006. The main aims are to estimate returns to education and to identify, conditioned on education and labour market experience, earnings differentials by gender and across sectors (public, private and informal). We confirm the general pattern that returns to education are increasing in level and years of education but note differences across sector of employment and the earnings distribution. Public sector workers (who tend to be more educated with longer tenure) and the self-employed with employees (small and micro enterprises) have the highest earnings whereas informal sector (self-employed without employees) and private sector wage earners have similar earnings on average (except for wage earners in large firms who have considerably higher earnings). Post-primary education is important in determining selection into wage employment, especially for the public sector. Allowing for selection, education has no additional effect on public sector wages, returns to education are concave for the self-employed but non-concave for the private wage sector. Quantile regressions reveal differential returns to education across the earnings distribution: primary and secondary education are inequality-reducing (more beneficial to those on lower earnings) whereas tertiary education is inequality-increasing. JEL No.:J6, J62, J69 |
| Keywords: | Labour Earnings, Returns to Education, Urban Labour, Tanzania |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:14/03&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Governance - E-Government Governance - E-Government Education - Education for the Knowledge Economy Private Sector Development - E-Business Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18941&r=mac |
| By: | Claudia Nassif; Omar Joya; Guillemette Sidonie Jaffrin |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16510&r=mac |
| By: | Ejaz Ghani; Lakshmi Iyer; Saurabh Mishra |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Poverty Reduction - Achieving Shared Growth |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17028&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Public Sector Expenditure Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Transport Economics Policy and Planning Public Sector Development Transport |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16779&r=mac |
| By: | Erlat, Haluk (METU, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | In our previous research on the pattern of Turkish trade (Erlat and Erlat, 2012) we tried to establish if this pattern had a persistent nature or whether it was dynamic. In doing so we used tools originally developed by Gagnon and Rose (1995) and later used by Carolan, Singh and Talati (1998) and Carter and Li (2002, 2004). These involved (i) classifying the sectors as surplus, balance and deficit sectors and constructing 3x3 contingency tables indicating whether sectors, say, that showed a deficit at the beginning of a period, remained deficit sectors at the end of the period or became balance and surplus sectors; (ii) testing whether the pattern at the end of the period was independent of the pattern at the beginning period, and (iii) constructing histograms regarding the distribution of how long the sectors have been showing surpluses over the period. We consider three aspects of this approach that may require improvement: (i) The results are highly aggregated even though the data used, at least in Erlat and Erlat (2012), are at the SITC 5 digit level. (ii) The results refer to the comparison between the beginning and ending of two periods that are years apart. Thus, how the patterns at the end of the period are reached is not investigated. (iii) The only tools that take the individual sectors and how they behave during the period into account are the histograms. To remedy these shortcomings, we followed Carolan, Mora and Singh (2012)’s lead and applied time series methods to individual sectors to obtain information about the path their trade balances took over the period under consideration. This also allowed us to pinpoint those sectors that have been successful in trade. We first constructed two series using export and import data for the sectors to be considered. First, we have the normalized trade balance for sector i at time t, NBit, to be used as the subject of the time series analysis. Second, we have the normalized trade volume for sector i at time t, NVit, to be used in presenting the results of the time series analysis. The sum of the NVit across i for any t is always 100. It, thus, shows the significance of the ith good (or sector) in overall trade. Since the focus of our time series analysis was the NBit, we established if the trade balance of a given sector increased, decreased or remained the same. This means that we needed to be interested in the long run movement of the NBit; in other words, the trend component in the series. This component may be stochastic, implying the presence of a unit root, or deterministic, implying a trend stationary series. In the second case, the sign of a statistically significant coefficient for the linear trend term will indicate to us the direction of the change while a statistically insignificant coefficient would imply that there has been no significant change in the trade balance of that sector. We used two tests for this purpose. The first one had the existence of a unit root as its null hypothesis and our test for this was the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The second had stationarity as its null and the test we used was Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) test. The joint use of the ADF and KPSS tests leads to the classification of the sectors into eight groups. Groups IV-VII contain results where there are no conflicts. Of these IV indicates that the series are nonstationary while VI-VII indicate that they are stationary. Groups I-III and VIII indicate conflicts. However, we used the results in I-III by regarding the stationarity obtained by the KPSS test as an indication that ADF lacks power in the sense that the null of a unit root would have been rejected. The conflict in VIII implies that the NBit has neither a unit root, nor is it stationary. Thus, these sectors were ignored. The data are the same ones used in Erlat and Erlat (2012) and will enable us to compare our results with those obtained in that paper. They are from 5-sectors but we eliminated those sectors that either had no exports or imports or both at any year during the period in question. This reduced the number of sectors to be analyzed to 1118. We also used the technological classification of the data and the presentation of the results as in Erlat and Erlat (2012). When we look at the aggregate results of this paper, we find that there is not much that is new compared to those in Erlat and Erlat (2012). But, when we consider the disaggregated results, we find information about the nature of the dynamism in the sectors classified as such. We find that the number and share in 2001 trade of positive change sectors is larger in all categories except Raw-Material Intensive Goods, a category including more traditional export sectors. sectors but we eliminated those sectors that either had no exports or imports or both at any year during the period in question. This reduced the number of sectors to be analyzed to 1118. We also used the technological classification of the data and the presentation of the results as in Erlat and Erlat (2012). When we look at the aggregate results of this paper, we find that there is not much that is new compared to those in Erlat and Erlat (2012). But, when we consider the disaggregated results, we find information about the nature of the dynamism in the sectors classified as such. We find that the number and share in 2001 trade of positive change sectors is larger in all categories except Raw-Material Intensive Goods, a category including more traditional export sectors. By the same token, Difficult-to-Imitate Research Intensive Goods appears to be the most dynamic sector with 21 top dynamic 5-digit sectors. Hence, we are able to say that Turkey not only has a dynamic tra |
| Keywords: | Not available |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:300&r=mac |
| By: | Suzuki, Sanae |
| Abstract: | How are different positions reconciled under decision making by consensus in international agreements? This article aims to answer this question. Consensus rule provides each participant a veto, which risks resulting in non-agreement. Taking ASEAN as a case study of international organizations that have adopted consensus rule as the main decision-making procedure, this article presents the chairship system as an analytical scheme to examine how different positions are or are not reconciled under consensus rule. The system is based on conventional knowledge regarding the chair in international conference, which can be defined as an institution where the role of the chair is taken by one member state in an international organization and plays a role in agenda-setting. The agenda-setting power given to the chair varies across organizations. This article assumes that the chair in ASEAN is given a relatively strong agenda-setting power to enable the chair to reach agreements and bias such agreements in its own favor. |
| Keywords: | Southeast Asia, International organization, International relations, Decision making, Politics, ASEAN, Chair, Agenda-setting |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper471&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Environmental Economics and Policies Environment |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17047&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Development Environment |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16727&r=mac |
| By: | Edmark, Karin (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Frölich, Markus (University of Mannheim); Wondratschek, Verena (Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)) |
| Abstract: | This study analyses whether the Swedish school choice reform, enacted in 1992, had different effects on students from different socio-economic backgrounds. We use detailed geographical data on students’ and schools’ locations to construct measures of the degree of potential choice. This allows us to study the effects of choice opportunities among public schools, whereas previous studies have focused on newly opened private schools. Our results suggest small positive or no effects of choice opportunities, depending on specification and outcome. We find no strong evidence of differences between subgroups; if anything, effects tend to be slightly more positive for disadvantaged groups, such as students from low-income families. Taken together, the results indicate that students from a socio-economically disadvantaged or immigrant background were not harmed by the reform. |
| Keywords: | School choice; school competition; treatment evaluation; cognitive and non-cognitive skills |
| JEL: | C21 I24 |
| Date: | 2014–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2014_016&r=mac |
| By: | Jean Guillaume Forand (University of Waterloo); John Duggan (University of Rochester) |
| Abstract: | We establish existence and continuity properties of equilibria in a model of dynamic elections with a discrete (countable) state space and general policies and preferences. We provide conditions under which there is a representative voter in each state, and we give characterization results in terms of the equilibria of an associated “representative voting game.†When the conditions for these results are not met, we provide examples that uncover new classes of dynamic political failures. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:153&r=mac |
| By: | Beata Javorcik; Steven Poelhekke |
| Abstract: | The literature has documented a positive effect of foreign ownership on firm performance. But is this effect due to a one-time knowledge transfer or does it rely on continuous injections of knowledge? To shed light on this question we focus on divestments, that is, foreign affiliates that are sold to local owners. To establish a causal effect of the ownership change we combine a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score matching. We use plant-level panel data from the Indonesian Census of Manufacturing covering the period 1990-2009. We consider 157 cases of divestment, where a large set of plant characteristics is available two years before and three years after the ownership change and for which observationally similar control plants exist. The results indicate that divestment is associated with a drop in total factor productivity accompanied by a decline in output, markups as well as export and import intensity. The findings are consistent with the benefits of foreign ownership being driven by continuous supply of headquarter services from the foreign parent. |
| Keywords: | divestment; foreign direct investment; Indonesia; productivity |
| JEL: | F23 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:435&r=mac |
| By: | Liana Ribeiro dos Santos; T.Diana L. van Aduard de Macedo-Soares |
| Abstract: | In response to growing competitive pressures and changes, a growing number of companies have established alliances as a way to complement their resources and ensure their competitive advantages. Although these alliances are a good strategic option for companies, there is evidence of a high rate of failure. Many studies have examined partnerships’ critical success factors , but few have investigated the difficulties and risk factors. The objective of this paper is to present the results of a research that aimed at identifying risk factors for alliances established in the scope of IT projects. The research was exploratory, and focused on five strategic IT projects of the Central Bank of Brazil, developed in partnership with other public and private, both national and foreign institutions. Although the projects have been successful, the following major risk factors were identified: lack of alliance planning, lack of partner negotiation , lack of partner commitment and lack of institutional support for the alliance. The research provided some significant lessons for managing project alliances that can benefit other IT projects |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:352&r=mac |
| By: | Monica Parra-Torrado |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring and Evaluation Governance - Youth and Governance Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18999&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Social Development - Social Accountability Private Sector Development - E-Business Education - Knowledge for Development Transport Economics Policy and Planning Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures Public Sector Development Transport |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16456&r=mac |
| By: | Lazar Sestovic; Peter Miovic |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Knowledge and Information Systems Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Rural Development Agriculture |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17015&r=mac |