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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Bossler, Mario (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Chittka, Lars (Destatis); Schank, Thorsten (University of Mainz) |
| Abstract: | We present the first empirical evidence on the 22 percent increase in the German minimum wage, implemented in 2022, raising it from € 9.82 to € 10.45 in July and to € 12 in October. Leveraging the German Earnings Survey, a large and novel data source comprising around 8 million employee-level observations reported by employers each month, we apply a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to analyze the policy's impact on hourly wages, monthly earnings, employment, and working hours. Our findings reveal significant positive effects on wages, affirming the policy's intended benefits for low-wage workers. Interestingly, we identify a negative effect on working hours, mainly driven by minijobbers. The hours effect results in an implied labor demand elasticity in terms of the employment volume of −0.2 which only partially offsets the monthly wage gains. We neither observe a negative effect on the individual's employment retention nor the regional employment levels. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, labor market effects, empirical evaluation, Germany |
| JEL: | J38 J31 J21 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17575 |
| By: | Gathmann, Christina (LISER); Grimm, Felix (LISER); Winkler, Erwin (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | How does Artificial Intelligence (AI) affect the task content of work, and how do workers adjust to the diffusion of AI in the economy? To answer these important questions, we combine novel patent-based measures of AI and robot exposure with individual survey data on tasks performed on the job and administrative data on worker careers. Like prior studies, we find that robots have reduced routine tasks. In sharp contrast, AI has reduced non-routine abstract tasks like information gathering and increased the demand for 'high-level' routine tasks like monitoring processes. These task shifts mainly occur within detailed occupations and become stronger over time. While displacement effects are small, workers have responded by switching jobs, often to less exposed industries. We also document that low-skilled workers suffer some wage losses, while high-skilled incumbent workers experience wage gains. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, tasks, skills, reallocation, robots, patents |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17554 |
| By: | Pabilonia, Sabrina Wulff (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics); Vernon, Victoria (SUNY Empire State University) |
| Abstract: | Using the panel component of the Current Population Survey and questions on work-from-home intensity, the authors examine the relationships between partners' work location arrangements, weekly hours worked, and within-couple labor hours inequality. Fixed-effects estimates suggest a strong positive relationship between partners' decisions to work from home. On average, remote workers work fewer hours than onsite workers, while hybrid workers work more. Both partners switching from onsite to hybrid work is associated with a 5.4% increase in couple-level hours, while both switching to fully remote work is associated with a 3.2% decrease in couple-level hours. When women switch to hybrid work while their partners switch to remote, within-couple labor hours inequality decreases; women switching to remote work increases inequality. Results suggest that hybrid, but not remote, work could improve women's position in the labor market. |
| Keywords: | working from home, telework, hybrid, remote, hours, gender inequality |
| JEL: | J20 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17588 |
| By: | Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University); Bussotti, Carolina (Rome Economics Doctorate (RED)); Nunley, John M. (University of Wisconsin, La Crosse); Seals Jr., R. Alan (Auburn University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the initial job-market matching of new US college graduates with a largescale audit study conducted during 2016 and 2017, in which 36, 880 résumés of college seniors were submitted to online job postings for business-related positions. We simulate the experience of US college students by incorporating variation in curricular and extracurricular activities. Our analysis reveals significant variation in callback rate returns to majors, with Biology and Economics majors receiving the highest rate, particularly in occupations involving high intensity of analytical and interpersonal skills. However, minors in History and Mathematics have precisely estimated zero effects on callback rates. Internship experiences that are social skills-oriented positively influence callbacks, yet this is not the case for analytical internships. Study abroad experiences enhance callback rates, predominantly in high interpersonal skill-intensive occupations. Listing both programming and data analysis skills significantly boosts callback rates. Our study provides a comprehensive characterization of which features of the college experience are more and less valuable during the high-stakes, first-job matching process. |
| Keywords: | returns to college, first job, majors, minors, audit study |
| JEL: | I26 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17552 |
| By: | Burdin, Gabriel (University of Siena); Kambayashi, Ryo (Musashi University); Kato, Takao (Colgate University) |
| Abstract: | This study provides the first analysis of Japan's 2018 Work Style Reform (WSR) and its effects on firms and workers, using payroll and survey data in a difference-in-difference design. We find that the reform's introduction of an overtime cap reduces average monthly overtime hours by 5 hours (-25%) and compresses the distribution of overtime within establishments. Total earnings decrease by 2% due to reduced overtime pay, while hourly wages remain unchanged. Notably, the reform improves life and leisure satisfaction, but these well-being gains are observed only among women. This gender difference is not explained by variations in perceived work intensification or time use. Instead, we find evidence that men (but not women) substitute paid overtime for unpaid overtime, which is consistent with the lack of well-being gains for men. Finally, we document that the reform leads to women taking more career jobs (standard employment) relative to non-career jobs (nonstandard employment) as compared to their male counterparts, highlighting the potential of working-hour regulations to promote gender equality in the labor market. |
| Keywords: | working time regulations, overtime, wages, employment, subjective well-being, gender, Japan, work style reform |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J23 J41 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17583 |
| By: | Anderlik, Jasmin (Ministry of Labor and the Economy (Vienna)); Jumaniyozova, Malika (Johannes Kepler University Linz); Schmidpeter, Bernhard (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf (Johannes Kepler University Linz) |
| Abstract: | Using linked vacancy-employer-employee data from Austria, we investigate how monopsony power affects firms' posting behavior and wage negotiations. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that firms with greater monopsony power post lower wages and offer fewer non-wage amenities, suggesting that wages and non-wage benefits are complementary. However, we find no evidence that monopsonistic firms demand higher levels of skill or education. Instead, our results indicate that they require more basic skills, particularly those related to routine tasks. On the workers' side, we find that employees hired in monopsonistic labor markets face significantly lower wages, both initially and in the long run. These lower wages are driven by both lower posted wages and reduced bargaining power, as well as reduced opportunities to climb the wage ladder later. |
| Keywords: | monopsony, wages, bargaining, upskilling |
| JEL: | J12 J16 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17585 |
| By: | Bachmann, Ronald; Janser, Markus; Lehmer, Florian; Vonnahme, Christina |
| Abstract: | Using a text-mining approach applied to task descriptions of occupations together with worker-level administrative data, we explore the growth in the greenness of employment in Germany between 2012 and 2022. We first show that the greening of occupations over time ("within-effect") is as important for the overall greening of employment as shifting occupational employment shares ("between-effect"). Second, we examine which occupations and task types contribute most to the within-effect, and which worker flows are mainly responsible for the between-effect. Third, we demonstrate that the employment prospects of foreign and of low-skilled workers are most at risk from the green transition. |
| Abstract: | In diesem Papier untersuchen wir die Entwicklung der ökologischen Transformation auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt zwischen 2012 und 2022. Wir zeigen zunächst, dass diese Entwicklung sowohl durch eine Zunahme umwelt- bzw. klimaschutzbezogener beruflicher Tätigkeiten als auch durch einen Rückgang von umwelt-/klimaschädlichen Tätigkeiten erfolgt. Darüber hinaus ist diese Veränderung innerhalb von Berufen im Laufe der Zeit ('Within-Effekt") mindestens ebenso wichtig für die Gesamttransformation der Beschäftigung wie die Verschiebung von Beschäftigungsanteilen zwischen Berufen ('Between-Effekt"). Zweitens zeigen wir, welche Berufe und welche Tätigkeiten ('brown" oder 'green") am meisten zum Within-Effekt beitragen und welche Beschäftigtenflüsse hauptsächlich für den Between-Effekt verantwortlich sind. Drittens untersuchen wir die Folgen der ökologischen Transformation der Beschäftigung auf individueller Ebene. Wir stellen fest, dass die Beschäftigungsaussichten von Menschen mit ausländischer Staatsangehörigkeit und gering qualifizierten Beschäftigten am stärksten durch die ökologische Transformation gefährdet sind, was wiederum bestehende Ungleichheiten auf dem Arbeitsmarkt verstärken kann. |
| Keywords: | Green transition, job tasks, occupational mobility, worker flows |
| JEL: | J23 J24 O33 Q55 R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:306826 |
| By: | Sousso Bignandi (ULiège); Cédric Duprez (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium); Céline Piton (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of digitalisation on firm-level employment and workforce composition in Belgium from 2003 to 2019, using a novel dataset that merges ICT expense data with administrative employment records. We find that digitalised firms experienced higher employment growth relative to non-digitalised firms, driven by both increased hiring and higher retention rates. The effect is particularly pronounced in large firms and reflects both faster employment growth in expanding firms and slower declines in shrinking firms. Digitalisation also significantly altered workforce composition, leading to a decrease in the share of low-educated workers and an increase in the share of highly educated workers, alongside shifts in the age distribution towards middle-aged workers. Our analysis employs a long-difference regression approach, well suited to capturing the gradual nature of ICT investments. While endogeneity concerns prevent causal interpretation, we show robust correlations between digitalisation and employment growth. The study contributes to the literature by providing a granular measure of digitalisation at firm level, offering new insights into the dynamics of worker turnover and sectoral differences, and by shedding light on the heterogeneous impact of digitalisation across worker education levels and age groups. |
| Keywords: | Digitalisation, employment, firms |
| JEL: | D22 D25 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202410-463 |
| By: | Falck, Oliver; Guo, Yuchen; Langer, Christina; Lindlacher, Valentin; Wiederhold, Simon |
| Abstract: | Job training is widely regarded as crucial for protecting workers from automation, yet there is a lack of empirical evidence to support this belief. Using internationally harmonized data from over 90, 000 workers across 37 industrialized countries, we construct an individual-level measure of automation risk based on tasks performed at work. Our analysis reveals substantial within-occupation variation in automation risk, overlooked by existing occupation-level measures. To assess whether job training mitigates automation risk, we exploit within-occupation and within-industry variation. Additionally, we employ entropy balancing to re-weight workers without job training based on a rich set of background characteristics, including tested numeracy skills as a proxy for unobserved ability. We find that job training reduces workers' automation risk by 4.7 percentage points, equivalent to 10 percent of the average automation risk. The training-induced reduction in automation risk accounts for one-fifth of the wage returns to job training. Job training is effective in reducing automation risk and increasing wages across nearly all countries, underscoring the external validity of our findings. Women tend to benefit more from training than men, with the advantage becoming particularly pronounced at older ages. |
| Keywords: | automation, entropy balancing, human capital, job training, technological change |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:308050 |
| By: | Valeria Maggian (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Giacomo Pasini (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; NETSPAR); Paola Profeta (Bocconi University); Ludovica Spinola (University of Milano Bicocca) |
| Abstract: | Does the gender of the supervisor matter for career trajectories and compensation of both male and female subordinates? This paper exploits a fine-grained longitudinal personnel data on workers from an Italian insurance company over the period 2014-2021 and identifies the gender composition of supervisor-subordinate dyads. Employing an individual fixed effect model, we show that while male and female supervisors evaluate similarly the performance of male and female subordinates, female supervisors are less likely to award one-off bonuses to both genders compared to their male counterparts. Additionally, both male and female subordinates are less likely of receiving promotions from employee to middle-manager when their supervisor is a woman compared to when their supervisor is a man. We interpret these findings as suggestive of female supervisors facing heightened scrutiny, leading to fewer promotions and bonuses being granted. |
| Keywords: | gender gaps; career; workers’ outcomes; leadership |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 M51 M52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2024:21 |
| By: | Becerra, Oscar (Universidad de los Andes); Piñeros, Juana (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the green transition on the Colombian labor market. Using a task-based approach and data from the 2022 Colombian Household Survey, we find that approximately 22.6% of Colombian employment is linked to green tasks, with 15.9% directly affected by the green transition. While these figures are in line with global estimates, most jobs will not change significantly. Green jobs are concentrated among men, urban residents, and higher-educated workers with STEM degrees in managerial roles, who also earn more and are located at the top of the income distribution. In addition, the tasks and skills of occupations of workers with a lower prevalence of jobs limit their mobility to green jobs. This suggests a need for targeted training programs to facilitate the transition of non-green workers to green occupations, given the limited transferability of skills between these types of jobs. |
| Keywords: | Green jobs; energy transition; task-based approach; Colombia |
| JEL: | J24 O13 Q52 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021270 |
| By: | Baktash, Mehrzad B. |
| Abstract: | Increased wages and productivity associated with performance pay can be beneficial to both employers and employees. However, performance pay can also entail unintended consequences for workers' well-being. This study is the first to systematically examine the association between performance pay and loneliness, a significant social well-being concern. Using representative survey data from Germany, I find that performance pay is positively associated with incidence, dimensions, and intensity of loneliness. Correspondingly, performance pay is negatively associated with social life satisfaction of the workers. The findings also hold in sensible instrumental variable estimations addressing the potential endogeneity of performance pay and in various robustness checks. Investigating the potential role of moderating factors reveals that the association between performance pay and loneliness is particularly large for private sector employees. Finally, implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Performance Pay, Loneliness, Social Life, Well-Being, SOEP |
| JEL: | J33 I31 J32 I10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1524 |
| By: | Blau, Francine D. (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the trends in women's economic outcomes in the United States focusing primarily on labor force participation, occupational attainment, and the gender wage gap. The author first highlights considerable progress on all dimensions prior to the 1990s followed by a slowing or stalling of gains thereafter, with a plateauing of female labor force participation trends and a slowing of women's occupational and wage convergence with men. She considers the likelihood of a resumption of progress in narrowing gender gaps in these areas, concluding it is unlikely without policy intervention. She then considers some new policy initiatives addressing work-family issues and labor market discrimination that may hold potential for increasing female labor force participation and narrowing gender inequities in the labor market. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, gender, female labor force participation, occupational segregation, labor market discrimination, labor market policy |
| JEL: | J16 J18 J21 J24 J31 J48 J71 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17558 |
| By: | Goulas, Sofoklis (Brookings Institution) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the preference for remote work by sending thousands of randomized messages to tutors advertising on an online platform across Greece. The messages requested either in-person or online tutoring. Requests for online lessons were roughly 50 percent more likely to receive a callback (10.7 vs. 7.3 percent). Female tutors, STEM tutors, and those in high-competition areas showed stronger preferences for online lessons. Tutors favoring remote work also demanded higher premiums for in-person sessions. Survey findings suggest that online tutoring aligns with higher job satisfaction, more employment opportunities, improved instructional effectiveness, and increased tutoring hours. |
| Keywords: | remote work, wages, in-person wage premium, online learning, tutoring, experiment |
| JEL: | J2 J3 J4 J6 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17592 |
| By: | Hugo Reis; Joop Hartog; Pedro Raposo |
| Abstract: | We estimate a dynamic model of individual labour market careers (turnover and search, wage development) on Portuguese panel data of graduates from vocational and general secondary education. We find that vocational graduates benefit more from the internal labour market than from the external market. This holds even more for mature than for young individuals. This hurts as among the mature, vocational has higher lay-off probability. To the common result that vocational education trades early employment advantage for later disadvantage we add a decomposition of employment status in its dynamic components. To the literature on wage effects we add a breakdown of variances in heterogeneity and risk. |
| JEL: | J3 J64 I26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202405 |
| By: | Papps, Kerry L. (University of Bradford); Strain, Michael R. (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how output prices are affected by increases in the minimum wage. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first examination of how the prices of an entire menu of items at a single business adjust in response to a minimum wage increase. Using data we gather form a fast-food chain, we find that a $1 minimum wage rise increased average prices by 7 cents, implying a pass-through elasticity of around 0.13. We also study how the price response across individual goods varies with the labor intensity in production of those goods. Consistent with a theoretical framework we describe, the prices of items that require more labor to produce increased by more due to the minimum wage increase. A $1 increase in the minimum wage raised the item price by an extra 0.3 cents for every additional preparation step. We also find that more price adjustment takes place at the store level than at the item level, and that it takes longer for prices to respond to a minimum wage increase than the existing literature suggests. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, prices, restaurants, menus |
| JEL: | J23 J38 L11 L81 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17594 |
| By: | Arindrajit Dube; Attila Lindner (UCL) |
| Abstract: | This chapter surveys the literature on the impact of minimum wages on low-wage labor markets. We describe and critically review the empirical methods in the new minimum wage literature, particularly those leveraging quasi-experimental variation. We provide a quantitative overview of the most recent evidence on the employment and wage effects of the policy, while also exploring emerging research on its impact on other margins, including amenities, other inputs (such as capital and high-skilled workers), firm entry and exit, output prices and demand, profits, and productivity. This approach allows us to present a comprehensive picture of how minimum wage policies affect firms, workers, and labor markets. We also review the evidence on the policy’s impact on wage inequality and income distribution. Finally, we discuss how these effects can vary depending on the economic context and the level of a country’s development. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, labor demand, employment and wage effects, margins of adjustment, inequality |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2425 |
| By: | Zhong, Jiatong |
| Abstract: | This paper explores learning-by-doing in the context of creative tasks using detailed data on fiction writers from a digital publishing platform. I construct measures to quantify authors' performance over time and document significant variation in both starting levels and rates of improvement. Learning manifests as an improvement in quality instead of the speed of production. Quality improvement can last for several years, much longer than typically observed in manufacturing settings, and authors do not improve fastest at the beginning. These findings show that human capital accumulation has distinctive features in the context of creative and complex tasks, which institutions should consider in the training and evaluation of new workers in creative occupations. |
| Keywords: | learning by doing, learning curves, creative tasks |
| JEL: | D83 J24 J46 L82 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:308082 |
| By: | Brüll, Eduard; Rostam-Afschar, Davud; Schlenker, Oliver |
| Abstract: | We study how the threat of entry affects service quantity and quality of general practitioners (GPs). We leverage Germany's needs-based primary care planning system, in which the likelihood of new GPs reduces by 20 percentage points when primary care coverage exceeds a cut-off. We compile novel data covering all German primary care regions and up to 30, 000 GP-level observations from 2014 to 2019. Reduced threat of entry lowers patient satisfaction for incumbent GPs without nearby competitors but not in areas with competitors. We find no effects on working hours or quality measures at the regional level including hospitalizations and mortality. |
| Keywords: | Entry regulation, general practitioners, healthcare provision, threat of entry, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | I11 I18 J44 J22 L10 L22 R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1537 |
| By: | David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon Hanson; Maggie R. Jones; Bradley Setzler |
| Abstract: | We analyze the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors like medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery instead stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominately exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions. |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J31 J62 L6 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-78 |
| By: | Peede, Lennert (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stops, Michael (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "We study how artificial intelligence (AI) affects labour demand at the establishment level. We use the share of AI related vacancy postings at the establishment level to measure efforts to develop, implement or use AI technologies. Low overall AI vacancy shares show that we study a phase of early AI adoption. At the establishment level, the AI vacancy share relates to a small reduction in those skills which are not related to AI technologies. We further find no effects on overall employment growth but slightly higher employment growth in jobs for highly skilled workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Kompetenzprofil ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Betrieb ; Entwicklung ; Jobbörse ; künstliche Intelligenz ; Anwendung ; Qualifikationsanforderungen ; IAB-Stellenerhebung ; Stellenanzeige ; Stellenausschreibung ; Arbeitskräftenachfrage ; 2015-2019 |
| JEL: | E23 J24 J63 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202415 |
| By: | Vandenberghe, Vincent |
| Abstract: | Labour turnover is a crucial element of contemporary economic life. It can improve productivity if more productive workers replace less productive ones. However, in the short run, it generates sizeable labour adjustment costs (LACs), including productivity losses. This paper sheds new light on the turnover-productivity relationship focusing on productivity LACs. We use firm-level 2014-2022 Belgian data with information on stayers, new hires and leavers: those who are fired, those leaving voluntarily, and those who are about to retire. We use the Hellerstein-Neumark (HN) framework to quantify the productivity of these different labour types, using stayers as a benchmark. We posit that evidence of significant productivity handicaps is a good indicator of productivity LACs. Results suggest no productivity LACs for new hires. By contrast, for leavers, they point to significant ones. What is more, findings for prospective (early) retirees indicate a very sizeable drop in productivity during their last year of employment. |
| Keywords: | Labour Turnover, Labour Adjustment Costs, Labour Productivity Differences, Prospective Retirees, Short Horizon |
| JEL: | J24 J63 J26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1549 |
| By: | Coschignano, Eliana (RWI); Jessen, Robin (RWI) |
| Abstract: | Men at the bottom quintile of the German male earnings distribution had lower average earnings in 2019 than in 2001. In contrast, female earnings have increased throughout the distribution. What explains these diverging trends and how did they translate into changes in net income? Data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) reveal that the drop in bottom male earnings is mostly due to a decrease in work hours, while hours worked of females with low earnings have increased. Changes in socio-demographic characteristics explain little of the evolution of income inequality. Households and the welfare state have cushioned much of low-earning men's income drop, while disposable incomes of women have increased by less than their earnings. Finally, earnings poverty is persistent: About half of individuals in the bottom quintile are still in the bottom quintile after five years. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, earnings inequality, working hours, decomposition |
| JEL: | D31 I38 J3 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17567 |
| By: | Corblet, Pauline (NYU Abu Dhabi); Dupuy, Arnaud (University of Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | We model monopsony on the labor market using a separable matching model a la Choo and Siow (2006). We propose a simple method that estimates 1) the multidimensional determinants of productivity and non-wage preferences separately and 2) the variance of unobserved heterogeneity on both sides of the market. Simulations show the effectiveness of the method. An application to Portuguese data reveals that the variance of unobserved heterogeneity is one order of magnitude larger for workers than for firms and represents about 29% of the variance in nonwage preferences of workers, while observed characteristics of workers and firms explain 71%. |
| Keywords: | monopsony, amenities, matching models, unobserved heterogeneity, Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood |
| JEL: | C25 C78 J28 J31 J32 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17563 |
| By: | Iakovlev, Vsevolod |
| Abstract: | This work aims to determine whether the difference between skill and education-based measures of labour mismatch affects the estimates of the labour mismatch-earnings relationship as specified by Verdugo and Verdugo's (1989) version of over, required and undereducation (ORU) Mincer earnings function. The analysis employs crossectional data for 26 countries from the 1st Cycle of the OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) conducted between 2011 and 2012. The preliminary results of the graphical analysis show that education and skill mismatch may exhibit opposite relationships with earnings at the country level. Specifically, over and under-education are found to be positively associated with median earnings, whereas over and under-skilling show a negative association. To investigate the source of the opposite correlations, an error components model is used. Additionally, the paper explores the heterogeneity in earnings and labour mismatch across a set of commonly used controls. The analysis produces mixed coefficient estimates for under and over-education but predominantly negative estimates for under and over-skilling at both individual and market levels. The market-level unobserved heterogeneity is found to be driving the coefficients away from zero. Although removing it often leads to a slight loss of magnitude, some exceptions exhibit a change of sign or loss of statistical significance. It is, thus, concluded that education and skill mismatch should be distinguished both conceptually and empirically and, if used as a proxy for each other, are unlikely to produce accurate results in the analysis of the Mincer earnings function. |
| Keywords: | Earnings, Education, Skill, Labour Mismatch |
| JEL: | D31 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwuaef:308057 |
| By: | Tucker Smith |
| Abstract: | Structural changes to labor demand can have lasting consequences on the employment and earnings of workers in affected industries and geographies. However, individuals coming of age may avoid similar fates if they internalize salient changes to the returns to education and adjust their human capital investments. This paper studies the effects of exposure to structural labor demand shocks during youth and adolescence on human capital accumulation and later-life earnings. I use student-level administrative data from Texas and a modified difference-in-differences design that compares changes in outcomes across cohorts of students living in areas that were more or less exposed to Chinese import competition. Students exposed to larger shocks were 4% more likely to enroll in college and 8% more likely to earn a bachelor’s degree. I provide evidence that these adjustments, along with shifts of fields of study away from those directly exposed to import competition in both high school and college, shielded students from more than 90% of the shock’s negative effects on later-life earnings. My results contribute a silver lining to the gloomy findings of prior work on the long-term effects of “the China shock” and other negative labor demand shocks: if individuals coming of age sufficiently adjust their human capital investments, they can emerge relatively unscathed. |
| Keywords: | human capital; returns to education; structural change; import competition; labor demand |
| JEL: | F16 H73 I24 I26 J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–11–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99269 |
| By: | Isaak, Niklas (RWI); Jessen, Robin (RWI) |
| Abstract: | Women born later experience greater earnings growth volatility at given ages than older cohorts. This implies a welfare loss due to increased earnings risk. However, German registry data for the years 2001-2016 reveal a moderation in higher-order earnings risk: Men and women born later face higher skewness in earnings changes, indicating fewer large decreases than increases, and lower kurtosis at younger ages, implying fewer large earnings changes. These trends point at a welfare increase and persist for 5-year earnings changes, which are more reflective of persistent changes. During the Great Recession, males' skewness dropped sharply; younger women were unaffected. |
| Keywords: | wage risk, income dynamics, life cycle, business cycle |
| JEL: | D31 J31 E24 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17568 |
| By: | Isaak, Niklas (RWI); Jessen, Robin (RWI) |
| Abstract: | How much does society value redistribution? The common method to derive inverse-optimum welfare weights is by inverting an optimal-tax model. Our alternative imposes fewer restrictions on labor supply and enables comparisons across household types. We use a structural labor supply model to calculate the marginal value of public funds for various small tax reductions, directly linked to welfare weights. An application to Germany finds: i) The tax-transfer system is optimal if society values one additional Euro for the bottom decile three times as much as for the median. ii) At low-medium incomes, weights for couples exceed those for singles substantially. |
| Keywords: | inverse optimum, microsimulation, marginal value of public funds, social welfare function, optimal taxation, labor supply, efficiency |
| JEL: | H21 H31 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17566 |
| By: | Jerbashian, Vahagn |
| Abstract: | I estimate a nested CES production function for 9 European countries over 1996- 2020 using EU KLEMS data, distinguishing between information and communication technologies (ICT), intellectual property (IP) capital, and traditional capital. I assume that the aggregate output is produced using labor and these capital types and allow for differences in the elasticities of substitution between labor, an aggregate of ICT and IP capital, and traditional capital. The estimated elasticity of substitution between ICT and IP capital is strictly below one implying gross complementarity. ICT and IP capital together are gross substitutes for labor while traditional capital is a gross complement. The results imply that the fast pace of technological progress and accumulation in ICT and IP capital are responsible for almost the entire fall in labor income share. The imputed labor-aggregate capital elasticity exceeds 1, rising from 1996 to 2008 and falling afterward. |
| Keywords: | CES Production Function, Elasticities of Substitution, System of Equations, ICT, IP Capital, Traditional Capital |
| JEL: | E22 E25 J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1523 |
| By: | Christl, Michael; Cubells Enguídanos, Andrea; di Pietro, Filippo |
| Abstract: | Our paper examines the effects of the significant 2019 minimum wage hike in Spain on labour market outcomes, prices, and firm bankruptcies. We use the synthetic control method (SCM) to analyze the impact of the policy on the Spanish economy. We find no significant impact of the minimum wage increase on labour market outcomes for low-skilled individuals, suggesting no major job losses or increased unemployment among this group. However, we observe a significant increase in prices, especially for services and processed food, with treatment effects reaching up to 3 percentage points in 2021 relative to the synthetic control group. In addition, we observe a slight increase in firm bankruptcies in industry and construction during the COVID-19 pandemic. While our results suggest that the minimum wage increase did not lead to significant job losses among vulnerable groups, it did lead to higher prices in certain sectors, which could negatively affect consumers. This is consistent with recent research from Germany, which found minimal effects on labour market outcomes but significant effects on prices following the introduction of a minimum wage. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, Synthetic Control Method, labour market, prices, employment |
| JEL: | J20 J38 J48 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1533 |
| By: | Hayashi , Ryotaro (Asian Development Bank); Kim , Hyuncheol Bryant (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Matsuda, Norihiko (Florida International University); Pham , Trinh (Korea Development Institute) |
| Abstract: | We use data from two separate randomized control trials to examine whether career mentoring influences the educational preferences and career choices of Bhutanese students in grades 10 and 12. These mentoring programs provide information on technical and vocational education and training (TVET) for grade 12 students and science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education systems for grade 10 students; labor market outcomes; and mentors’ experiences in each field. Despite the contrasting levels of recognition and stigma associated with TVET and STEM, both programs are generating greater interest among students, as indicated in their stated preferences. While there are also positive changes in the mindset and attitudes of students in grades 10 and 12, the increased interest does not translate into increased applications and enrollments. We interpret these findings as supporting the importance of nonmonetary factors in shaping educational decision-making. |
| Keywords: | STEM; TVET; career mentoring; education choices; Bhutan |
| JEL: | I23 I24 J24 J40 |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0762 |
| By: | James (Jim) C. MacGee; Joel Rodrigue |
| Abstract: | Gross domestic product (GDP) per adult in Canada fluctuated between 70% and 90% of that of the United States between 1960 and 2020. Behind this gap lie large, systematic differences in relative incomes across the Canadian and US income distributions. There are small differences in average incomes among lower percentiles of the income distribution while large gaps exist for high-income earners, with larger gaps for business owners and the university-educated. Using data from the World Inequality Database, we find that the top 10% of the income distribution accounts for three-quarters of the gap in GDP per adult between Canada and the United States and up to two-thirds of the measured labour productivity gap. While average hours worked per working-age adult in Canada and the United States were similar in 1970 and 2019, persistent shifts in relative hours worked per adult appear to play a significant role in measured labour productivity differences between 1970 and 2019. Our work suggests that selective emigration of high-ability workers—commonly referred to as brain drain—to the United States may play a significant role in accounting for the gaps in GDP per adult and labour productivity. The lower level of innovative activities in Canada is consistent with larger income gaps for high-income earners. |
| Keywords: | Productivity |
| JEL: | D31 E24 J24 J61 N12 O47 O51 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-49 |
| By: | Ichiro Fukunaga (Bank of Japan); Yoshihiko Hogen (Bank of Japan); Yojiro Ito (Bank of Japan); Kenji Kanai (Bank of Japan); Satoshi Tsuchida (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper looks back on the background of the sluggish potential growth and the slowdown in labor productivity growth since the 1990s in Japan, and raises some issues on their concepts and measurement, as well as on their relationship with prices and wages. Specifically, we point out that (1) there is a great deal of uncertainty in estimating the potential growth rate due to differences in approaches; (2) a decline in the potential growth rate could be accompanied by an even sharper decline in aggregate demand, leading to a worsening of the output gap; (3) the slowdown in labor productivity growth, combined with the decline in the labor share and the deterioration in the terms of trade, has exerted downward pressure on real wages; (4) the slowdown in labor productivity growth has also led to upward pressure on prices through rising unit labor costs; and (5) the prolonged deflation and low inflation themselves might have adversely affected productivity through suppressing demand for capital investment and other factors. While the sluggishness of potential growth and the slowdown in labor productivity growth are serious problems in themselves, monitoring these trends is also necessary for conducting monetary policy with the aim of maintaining price stability. It is also important to look at the relationship between productivity, prices, and wages from a variety of perspectives, while being mindful of the uncertainties in these estimates. |
| Keywords: | Potential growth rate; Labor productivity; Prices; Wages; Japan's economy |
| JEL: | E20 E30 J30 O47 |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e16 |
| By: | Kosuke Aoki (University of Tokyo); Yoshihiko Hogen (Bank of Japan); Yojiro Ito (Bank of Japan); Kenji Kanai (Bank of Japan); Kosuke Takatomi (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze determinants of price markups and their relationship with aggregate productivity based on long-term estimates of price markups and wage markdowns for Japanese firms. The main results are summarized as follows. First, we find that, in order to maintain profitability, Japanese firms have raised their wage markdowns while their price markups have declined since the late 1990s. Both the U.S. and Japanese firms experienced rising wage markdowns, but Japanese firms differ in that they experienced declining price markups. Second, regarding determinants of price markups for Japanese firms, we find that firms' investment in intangible assets has significantly contributed to raising price markups across industries. Meanwhile, in manufacturing, a decline in Japan's share of global exports due to changes in the international competitive environment has worked as a force for exerting downward pressure on price markups. In non-manufacturing, the number of stores per capita increased which worked as a force for enhancing the severity of price competition and exerted downward pressure on price markups. Third, we find that TFP growth in Japan was mainly driven by (1) the efficiency improvements from declining price markups, and (2) contributions from technological progress was much smaller than those of the United States. We also show that Japan's technological frontier, as measured by actual output and price markups, did not expand as much as in the United States. |
| Keywords: | Price markup; Wage markdown; Competition; Productivity; Resource allocation |
| JEL: | E24 E31 J30 J42 L12 |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e15 |
| By: | Herget, Anna (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg); Riphahn, Regina T. (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Many countries subsidize low-income employments or small jobs. These subsidies and their phasing out can generate labor market frictions and distort incentives. The German Minijob program subsidizes low-income jobs. It generates a 'Minijob trap' with substantial bunching along the earnings distribution. Since 2003, the newly introduced Midijob subsidy aims to reduce the Minijob-induced notch in the net earnings distribution. Midijobs reduce payroll taxes for employments above the Minijob earnings ceiling. We investigate whether introducing Midijobs reduced the Minijob trap. We apply a regression discontinuity design using administrative data and a difference-in-differences estimation using survey data. While in both cases our results show a small positive overall effect of Midijobs on transitions out of Minijobs, they are effective only for a narrow treatment group. |
| Keywords: | Midijobs, Minijobs, payroll tax subsidy, causal effects, difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, SOEP, SIAB |
| JEL: | J21 J38 H24 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17587 |
| By: | Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. (Humboldt University Berlin); Bald, Fabian (European University Viadrina, Frankfurt / Oder); Roth, Duncan H.W. (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Seidel, Tobias (University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | Using a quantitative spatial model as a data-generating process, we explore how spatial frictions affect the measurement of quality of life. We find that under a canonical parameterization, mobility frictions - generated by idiosyncratic tastes and local ties - dominate trade frictions - generated by trade costs and non-tradable services - as a source of measurement error in the Rosen-Roback framework. This non-classical measurement error leads to a downward bias in estimates of the urban quality-of-life premium. Our application to Germany reveals that accounting for spatial frictions results in larger quality-of-life differences, different quality-of-life rankings, and an urban quality-of-life premium that exceeds the urban wage premium. |
| Keywords: | housing, spatial frictions, rents, prices, productivity, quality of life, spatial equilibrium, wages |
| JEL: | J2 J3 R2 R3 R5 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17549 |
| By: | D. BABET (INSEE); M.CHABAUD (INSEE) |
| Abstract: | We use a chained version of the French matched employer-employee dataset (BTS-postes) to analyze the wage dynamics of people who change employers during the 2005-2019 period. First, we show that almost half of the moves that we interpret as being chosen are accompanied by a decrease in the hourly wage. To understand why workers might voluntarily quit a job for another one that pays less, we follow Sorkin (2018) to measure non-wage amenities offered by firms using the structure of employer-to-employer transitions. We find that in the French context, non-pay characteristics of jobs play a similar role than in the US, explaining about 10% of the variance of (log)-wages. By comparing estimates based on annualized and hourly wages, we see indications that workers value more firms in which they can work longer hours. |
| Keywords: | Firm-to-firm mobility, wage gap, non-wage amenities |
| JEL: | J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nse:doctra:2024-19 |
| By: | Görlitz, Katja; Heß, Pascal; Tamm, Marcus |
| Abstract: | This study provides a policy evaluation of laws allowing early school enrollment of children, i.e., enrollment before the official school starting age. It investigates the effects of early enrollment on educational attainment, wages and employment. While the school starting age is usually determined by children's date of birth and legal cutoffs, some German states allowed early enrollment in some years. Exploiting state and cohort variation, the results show that male early enrollees attain fewer years of schooling, enter the labor market earlier and have a larger labor market attachment at around age 16. Positive wage effects persist until approximately age 35. Results for women roughly resemble those for men but they are less convincingly estimated. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie umfasst eine Evaluation von Einschulungsgesetzen, die eine vorzeitige Einschulung von Kindern erlauben. Sie untersucht die Auswirkungen einer vorzeitigen Einschulung auf die Bildungsabschlüsse, die Löhne und die Beschäftigung. Eine vorzeitige Einschulung ist/war lediglich in einigen Bundesländer und in ausgewählten Jahren erlaubt. Diese Unterschiede und Änderungen zwischen den Bundesländern und Schülerkohorten werden genutzt, um die Wirkung zu messen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass männliche Schüler mit vorzeitiger Einschulung weniger Schuljahre absolvieren, früher in den Arbeitsmarkt eintreten und im Alter von etwa 16 Jahren häufiger erwerbstätig sind. Außerdem sind die Löhne dieser Schüler im Erwachsenenalter höher als bei regulär eingeschulten Personen. Die positiven Lohneffekte bleiben bis zum Alter von 35 Jahren bestehen. Die Ergebnisse für Frauen ähneln grob denen für Männer, sie sind jedoch weniger überzeugend geschätzt. |
| Keywords: | Early enrollment policy, early school entry, wages, employment, school starting age |
| JEL: | I28 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:306834 |
| By: | Marco Caliendo; Katrin Huber; Ingo E. Isphording; Jakob Wegmann |
| Abstract: | Surveys are an indispensable source of data for applied economic research; however, their reliance on self-reported information can introduce bias, especially if core variables such as personal income are misreported. To assess the extent and impact of this misreporting bias, we compare self-reported wages from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) with administrative wages from social security records (IEB) for the same individuals. Using a novel and unique data linkage (SOEP-ADIAB), we identify a modest but economically significant reporting bias, with SOEP respondents underreporting their administrative wages by about 7.3%. This misreporting varies systematically with individual, household, and especially job and firm characteristics. In replicating common empirical analyses in which wages serve as either dependent or independent variables, we find that misreporting is consequential for some, but not all estimated relationships. It turns out to be inconsequential for examining the returns to education, but relevant for analyzing the gender wage gap. In addition we find that misreporting bias can significantly affect the results when wage is used as the independent variable. Specifically, estimates of the wage-satisfaction relationship are substantially overestimated when based on survey data, although this bias is mitigated when focusing on interpersonal changes. Our Findings underscore that survey-based measures of individual wages can significantly bias commonly estimated empirical relationships. They also demonstrate the enormous research potential of linked administrative-survey data. |
| Keywords: | reporting bias, measurement error, wage, income, administrative data, survey data, data linkage |
| JEL: | J01 J30 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_619 |
| By: | Emek Basker; Lucia Foster; Martha Stinson |
| Abstract: | Tipping is a significant form of compensation for many restaurant jobs, but it is poorly measured and therefore not well understood. We combine several large administrative and survey datasets and document patterns in tip reporting that are consistent with systematic under-reporting of tip income. Our analysis indicates that although the vast majority of tipped workers do report earning some tips, the dollar value of tips is under-reported and is sensitive to reporting incentives. In total, we estimate that about eight billion in tips paid at full-service, single-location, restaurants were not captured in tax data annually over the period 2005-2018. Due to changes in payment methods and reporting incentives, tip reporting has increased over time. Our findings have implications for downstream measures dependent on accurate measures of compensation including poverty measurement among tipped restaurant workers. |
| Keywords: | tipping, restaurants, tip reporting |
| JEL: | J33 L82 H26 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-68 |
| By: | Ichiro Fukunaga (Bank of Japan); Yoshihiko Hogen (Bank of Japan); Yoichi Ueno (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of economic activity and prices in Japan since the 1990s, based on discussions mainly in academia as well as the survey of corporate behavior, and then discusses some issues related to the signs of change in recent years. In the 1990s, monetary policy faced a lower bound on nominal interest rates as the economy fell into stagnation and mild deflation due to various factors both on the demand and supply sides. In the 2010s, the economy recovered thanks to the effects of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing and other measures, which brought about a situation of no longer being in deflation. However, the "price stability target" of 2 percent could not be achieved while people's mindset and practices based on the assumption that wages and prices were unlikely to rise remained. After the pandemic in the 2020s, as the economic recovery and the tightening of labor markets as well as the surge in import prices have strengthened the virtuous cycle between wages and prices, it came in sight that the "price stability target" would be achieved in a sustainable and stable manner. Against this background, signs of change have been seen in the global economic landscape, labor markets, and firms' price-setting behavior. The mindset and practices based on the assumption that wages and prices were unlikely to rise, which took root during the deflation period, appear to be dissolving. |
| Keywords: | Japan's economy; Prices; Labor market; Globalization; Monetary policy |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 F62 J20 O53 |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e14 |
| By: | Nguyen, Manh-Hung; Hoang, Viet-Ngu; Nghiem, Son; Nguyen, Lan Anh |
| Abstract: | Mandatory vaccination for COVID-19 has received intense political and ethical debates, while the literature on the causal effects of vaccination mandates on vaccination outcomes is very limited. In this study, we examine the effects of the announcement of vaccine mandates (VMs) for workers working in three sectors, including health, education, and state governments, on the uptake of first-dose and second-dose vaccination across 50 states in the United States of America. We show that VM announcements have heterogeneous effects; hence, standard two-way fixed effects and difference-in-differences estimators are biased. We present evidence for the heterogeneous treatment effects using recently developed estimators of de Chaisemartin and D’Haultfœuille (2020b) in single and two-treatment settings. In the setting of a single treatment, when treating all VM announcements equally, our results show that VM announcement was associated with an increase of 20.6% first-dose uptake from 1 July to 31 August 2021. In two-treatment settings, our results suggest that VM announcements for workers in health or state government sectors have significant causal effects on first-dose vaccination. Additionally, VM announcements do not have significant causal effects on second-dose uptake. Our results are robust to the choice of differing outcome variables and periods after controlling for state-level covariates, including COVID-19 death, unemployment, and cumulative two-dose vaccination. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; heterogeneous treatment effects; multiple treatment effects; Difference-in-Differences estimator |
| JEL: | I12 I15 I18 J18 J21 J23 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129950 |
| By: | Fernandez, Guzman Gonzalez-Torres; Parker, Miles; Usman, Sehrish |
| Abstract: | The projected increase in extreme climate events in the coming decades is likely to exacerbate the existing productivity and demographic challenges facing Europe. We study the dynamic, medium-run macroeconomic effects of heatwaves, droughts and floods in 1160 EU regions through the lens of a local projections, difference in difference framework. Summer heatwaves and droughts lower medium-term output, but the impact from floods depends on regional income levels. High-income regions witness reconstruction activity, less wealthy regions do not. We find evidence of population decline in affected regions as well as adaptation spending post-event, which lowers regional productivity. JEL Classification: D24, E24, J22, R11, Q54 |
| Keywords: | difference in difference, extreme climate, labour market, local projections, potential output, productivity, weather |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20243002 |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | CBO’s distributional analysis of household income shows that from 1979 to 2021, income after transfers and taxes among households in the lowest quintile (or fifth) of the income distribu¬tion increased significantly, after adjusting for inflation. However, the Census Bureau’s official poverty measure (OPM) has not decreased significantly over that same period. In this report, CBO investigates that seeming disparity by examining how its method for analyzing the distribution of household income differs from the Census Bureau’s method for calculating the OPM. |
| JEL: | H20 H24 H50 I32 J30 |
| Date: | 2025–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:60809 |