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on Central and South America |
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Issue of 2020‒09‒14
three papers chosen by |
| By: | Oliveira, Gabriel (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Chagas, André (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present some long-term effects of the largest Conditional Cash Transfers program in the world, and one of the pioneers, the Bolsa Fam´ılia Program (BFP). We focus on the effects on Schooling attained in early adulthood and Labor Market outcomes of individuals more or less exposed during their childhood. The estimates were enabled by linking identified data from Formal Labor Market, BFP Payment Records, and the Single Registry (SR). In this Natural Experiment, the main identification strategy relies on a rich set of control variables, and on the fact that the release of BFP resources for registered families is automatized and based on municipality poverty parameters estimated by the government. In an alternative identification strategy, we consider an instrumental variable, the observed proxy for the municipality effort to register vulnerable families. These strategies help to solve the potential selection bias of families to the SR, and consequently to the treatment. Nonetheless, since the program selects the most vulnerable families, the threats to the identification suggest that the estimates are lower bounds. Our main results show positive long-term effects on Schooling, and on the Formal Labor Market participation, while mixed results are observed for Earnings. Heterogeneity tests suggest that the effects are stronger for boys, for smaller cities, and for families with never formally employed parents. |
| Keywords: | Conditional Cash Transfers; Long-term effects; Human Capital; Labor Market; Bolsa Família |
| JEL: | I25 I38 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2020_009&r=all |
| By: | Leonardo Fabio Morales (Banco de la República de Colombia); Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía (Banco de la República de Colombia); Jose Pulido (Banco de la República de Colombia); Luz A. Flórez (Banco de la República de Colombia); Didier Hermida (Banco de la República de Colombia); Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha (Banco de la República de Colombia); Francisco Lasso-Valderrama (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | We assess the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdown of some economic sectors on the Colombian labor market. We exploit the variation between excluded and non-excluded sectors from the lockdown, as well as the timing of the restriction policies, to identify the effect of sector-specific restriction policies. These restrictions had negative effects on employment, accounting for approximately a quarter of the total job loss between February and April of 2020; the remaining three quarters of the job losses could be attributed to the regional patterns of the disease spread, and other epidemiological and economic factors affecting the whole country during this period. Therefore, we should expect important employment losses even in the absence of such restrictions. In contrast, we find no significant effect of sector-specific restrictions on average worked hours or wages, indicating that most of the adjustment of the labor market took place in the extensive margin. Moreover, sectorspecific restrictions only affect salaried workers, while self-employment is more responsive to the disease spread. **** RESUMEN: En este trabajo evaluamos el efecto de la pandemia de Covid-19 y las restricciones de movilidad sectoriales en el mercado laboral colombiano. Para identificar el efecto de estas políticas, explotamos la variación en el empleo y salarios en los sectores excluidos y no excluidos de las restricciones a la movilidad, así como el momento de su implementación. Las restricciones sectoriales a la movilidad tienen efectos negativos en el empleo, representando aproximadamente una cuarta parte de la pérdida total de empleo entre febrero y abril de 2020. Los patrones regionales de propagación de la enfermedad y otros componentes epidemiológicos y económicos, que afectaron al país durante este período, representan las tres cuartas partes restantes de la pérdida de empleos. Por lo tanto, debemos esperar importantes pérdidas de empleo incluso en ausencia de dichas restricciones. No encontramos un efecto significativo en el promedio de horas trabajadas o los salarios, lo que indica que la mayor parte del ajuste del mercado laboral tuvo lugar en el margen extensivo (empleos). Además, las restricciones a la movilidad sectoriales afectan principalmente a los trabajadores asalariados, mientras que el trabajo por cuenta propia responde principalmente a la propagación de la enfermedad. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, mobility restrictions, labor market, employment, Covid-19, mobility restrictions, labor market, employment. |
| JEL: | I14 I18 J21 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1129&r=all |
| By: | Matias Berthelon Author-Name: Diana Kruger Author-Name: Catalina Lauer Author-Name: Luca Tiberti Author-Name: Carlos Zamora |
| Abstract: | Ample empirical evidence has shown that access to childcare for preschool children increases mothers’ labor-force participation and employment. By estimating the causal effect of a school schedule reform in Chile, we investigated whether increased childcare for primary school children improved the quality of the jobs that mothers found. Combining plausibly exogenous temporal and spatial variations in school schedules with a panel of mothers’ employment between 2002 and 2015, we estimated a fixed-effects model that controlled for unobserved heterogeneity. We found a positive effect of access to full-day schools on several measures of the quality of mothers’ jobs, which were correlated to working full-time. We also found small, positive effects on the quality of fathers’ jobs. Our evidence suggests that the mechanism driving the effect was the effect of the reform’s implicit subsidy to the cost of childcare on the opportunity cost of mothers’ time. We also found that less-educated mothers benefited most from the reform. Childcare can increase household welfare by improving parents’ jobs and, thus, can play a role in reducing inequality. |
| Keywords: | Employment quality, job quality, women’s labor-force participation, women’s labor supply, full-day schooling, childcare, education reform, Chile |
| JEL: | H41 H52 I25 I28 J13 J16 J18 J22 O15 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:pmmacr:2020-07&r=all |