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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Similan Rujiwattanapong (Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | Standard search theory suggests that (1) job search intensity increases with the relative gain from searching, and that (2) job search intensity increases the job finding probability. Firstly, this paper presents new empirical findings that are at odds with these theoretical predictions when workers are categorised by their unemployment insurance (UI) history. Unemployed workers who either are currently receiving or used to receive UI search harder than those who never take up UI during their unemployment spells. What’s more, despite their higher search intensity, those with a UI history have a lower job finding probability. Subsequently, I introduce unproductive and inefficient job search, consistent with these empirical findings, to an otherwise standard stochastic equilibrium search-and-matching model with endogenous search intensity. Three key results emerge from these job search imperfections: (1) aggregate search intensity becomes acyclical leading to an underestimated matching efficiency, (2) the general equilibrium effects of UI extensions and the labour market fluctuations are dampened, and (3) unemployment and its duration are more persistent. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles, job search intensity, matching efficiency, unemployment insurance, unemployment dynamics |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J24 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2441 |
| By: | Felder, Rahel; Frings, Hanna; Mittag, Nikolas |
| Abstract: | Recent papers identify the effects of unemployment insurance and potential benefit duration (PBD) on unemployment duration and reemployment wages using quasi-experiments. To make known problems of heterogeneity in quasi-experiments tractable, they often use models of job search, but we argue that letting the data speak without restrictions remains surprisingly informative. We focus on two broad questions: How informative are the local average effects quasi-experiments identify and what can we learn about causes and mechanisms from quasi-experiments in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects? We first line out a framework for treatment effect heterogeneity with two interdependent outcomes, such as duration and wages, and then re-examine the effects of longer PBD in Schmieder, von Wachter and Bender (2016). Local average effects become more informative when amended with other parameters identified by (quasi-)randomization: Duration effects of PBD almost exclusively prolong few long spells, which helps to explain differences between studies. Dynamic selection into reemployment timing is non-monotonic, but does not change with PBD at short durations so dynamic treatment effects are identified at short durations. For wage effects of PBD, we find neither evidence of positive effects nor meaningful heterogeneity. Even though key structural parameters are not identified because LATE confounds average effects with the covariance of first and second stage effects, the data remain informative about causes and mechanisms. A wage decomposition shows that wage loss operates through the firm fixed effect, which speaks against individual-based causes such as skill depreciation or bargaining. Using dynamic treatment effects and mediation analyses, we find PBD to affect wages even for workers who do not change unemployment duration, i.e. directly. The negative direct effect we find casts doubt on key assumptions of common models of job search. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, unemployment insurance, benefit duration, heterogeneous treatment effects |
| JEL: | J31 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:306841 |
| By: | Lahoti , Rahul (UNU-WIDER); Abraham , Rosa (Azim Premji University); Swaminathan, Hema (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of marriage and childbirth on women’s labor market participation in rural India. In the absence of panel data, we employ a novel approach using Life History Calendar data to analyze women’s labor market trajectories from age 15 onward. Our event study models reveal that marriage leads to a significant and sustained increase in women’s labor supply, particularly in informal agricultural work. This increase is more pronounced among women from poorer households and those with working mothers. Notably, childbirth does not negatively impact labor supply; this differs from findings in developed countries. We attribute these results to early marriage and motherhood, low levels of economic development, and prevalence of informal employment. Our research highlights the crucial role of socioeconomic context in shaping the impact of life events on women’s labor market outcomes in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | marriage; motherhood penalty; women’s labor force participation; event studies; life history calendar (LHC) |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0757 |
| By: | Mussida, Chiara; Sciulli, Dario |
| Abstract: | We explore the female employment-fertility relationship for a wide period, 2004-2019 in Italy. We adopt a dynamic approach when modelling both employment and fertility choices and allow for possible feedback effects from employment to future fertility decision. We also consider different employment outcomes and subgroup analysis. Our findings suggest childbirth has reduced the probability of female employment. The childbirth effect, however, evolved over time, and the related negative impact has increased after the Great Recession and the application of austerity measures. Full-time and permanent jobs were greatly affected by childbirth than part-time and temporary employment. Childbirth increases the probability of being a high-pay worker, indicating a greater ease to combine career and family, possibly because of the better accessibility of childcare services. Childcare tends to increase work intensity, suggesting a compensative role of other familymembers in terms of household labor supply. Sub-groups analysis reveals negative childbirth-effect is stronger for younger females, in the North-Centre regions, among non-poor household and in presence of employed husbands. |
| Keywords: | female employment, childbirth, dynamic model, feedback effects |
| JEL: | E24 J13 C61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1526 |
| By: | Pia M. Orrenius; Chloe N. Smith; Madeline Zavodny |
| Abstract: | Hiring someone who is not authorized to work in the United States is illegal, and employers who knowingly hire unauthorized immigrant workers may face civil and criminal penalties. The federal government uses a variety of actions, including worksite raids and paperwork audits, to enforce the prohibition on hiring unauthorized workers. Compliance costs and the possibility of becoming the target of an immigration enforcement action may affect U.S. businesses’ decisions about whom to hire as well as how many workers to employ and how much to pay them, but little previous research has studied such potential impacts. We find that increases in worksite enforcement actions in an industry raise employment but reduce the average wage. Enforcement also boosts both hires and separations, so worker turnover rises. Actions that target employers—audits, investigations, fines and criminal charges—have larger effects than raids, which target workers. The results are consistent with businesses shifting to on-the-books or legal workers when immigration enforcement activity increases. However, tougher enforcement does not lead to an increase in business sign-ups in E-Verify or IMAGE, which are two federal government programs that can help businesses determine whether workers are authorized. This suggests that, even in the face of tougher enforcement, employers find it costly to use programs that check workers’ employment eligibility. |
| Keywords: | unauthorized immigration; Immigration enforcement; raids; audits; E-Verify |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J63 K37 |
| Date: | 2024–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99175 |
| By: | David Escamilla-Guerrero; Miko Lepistö; Chris Minns |
| Abstract: | This paper uses newly digitized Canada-Vermont border crossing records from the early twentieth century to document substantial differences in how female and male migrants sorted across US desti nation counties by earnings potential. Income maximization largely explains sorting patterns among men. For single women, gender-based labor market constraints were important, with locations offering more work opportunities attracting women with higher earnings capacity. Among married women, destination choices were much less influenced by labor market characteristics. These findings reveal how labor market constraints based on gender and marriage influence the allocation of migrant talent across destinations. |
| Date: | 2025–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_214 |
| By: | Pedro Portugal; Rodrigo Barrela; Eduardo Costa |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence showing, for the first time, that the sensitivity of real wages to the business cycle is much stronger for higher-wage workers than for lower-wage workers. Using matched employer-employee data for Portugal covering the period 1986-2021, we show that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a decrease in real hourly wages of workers in the 90th percentile of the conditional wage distribution of around 1.3%, contrasted with 0.8% for those in the 10th percentile. This gap is even larger for newly hired workers – the estimates for the 90th percentile workers are double of those in the bottom decile. This pattern also holds for bargained wages and the wage cushion. These results can be explained by composition effects and heterogeneous sensitivities of firms and collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) to the cycle. First, the considerable gap in new hires’ cyclicality arises mostly from match quality fluctuations over the business cycle and is sharply attenuated after we account for job match composition. Second, by estimating cyclicality coefficients for each firm/CBA, we find that firms and CBAs tend to provide a lower degree of insurance against aggregate cyclical fluctuations to higher paid individuals. These findings provide strong empirical evidence on the role of business cycles as amplifiers of inequality trends. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J64 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202408 |
| By: | Olivetti, Claudia (Dartmouth College); Pan, Jessica (National University of Singapore); Petrongolo, Barbara (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This chapter traces the evolution of the study of gender in the labor market, focusing on how academic thinking on this topic has evolved alongside real world developments in gender inequality from the 1980s to the present. We present a simple model of female labor supply to illustrate how various forces discussed in the literature (e.g., productivity differentials, unequal gender roles, wage markdowns) affect the gender earnings gap. A major development in the literature is a clearer distinction between intrinsic differences in preferences and skills between men and women versus differential constraints in driving gender gaps. We discuss insights from research on the relative importance of these explanations, and the implications for economic efficiency. We highlight that much of the literature today emphasizes the relevance of gendered constraints, where women and men typically face differential trade-offs between family and career, with implications for job sorting, job search, and earnings. These constraints have their roots in gender roles within the household that are shaped by wider societal norms. We review recent research that establishes the relevance of identity and norms for understanding gender inequalities in the labor market, both on the supply-side and on the demand-side, as well as what drives the formation and evolution of these norms. Finally, we conclude with suggestions for future research. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17559 |
| By: | Boinet, Césarine (University of Strathclyde); Norris, Jonathan (University of Strathclyde); Romiti, Agnese (University of Strathclyde); Shi, Zhan (University of Kent); Telemo, Paul (University of Strathclyde) |
| Abstract: | Mothers may face pressure to sort out of the labor market due to perceptions that women have an absolute advantage in child-rearing, even when their earnings potential matches that of men. Guided by a simple model, we use a survey experiment where we equalize earnings potential across gender and show that women are perceived to hold an absolute advantage in childrearing. We then experimentally test mechanisms underlying these beliefs, finding that mothers are expected to spend more time on skill investments with their children than fathers who have equivalent time available. Finally, we find that when mothers work full-time, children's actual performance is generally underestimated, but providing factual information about their outcomes, leads to more accurate beliefs and reduced expectations of harm to the child. Our results show that beliefs about an absolute advantage for women in child-rearing are indeed present and highlight the need for targeted interventions to address misinformation about children's outcomes when mothers pursue careers. |
| Keywords: | motherhood penalty, absolute advantage, belief elicitation, information |
| JEL: | D13 D83 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17574 |
| By: | Singhal, Karan (University of Luxembourg, LISER); Sierminska, Eva (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)) |
| Abstract: | This chapter presents evidence of the challenges faced by women and underrepresented minorities in Economics. It, first, examines the demographics of the economics profession, highlighting significant disparities in representation. Despite some progress, under representation remains prevalent at different educational levels and at higher academic positions, for the most part. Subsequently, the chapter reviews research on existing barriers and biases contributing to this under representation. Recent work has emphasized the crucial role of attitudes and institutional practices throughout the career pipeline. The chapter highlights evidence of these barriers across different stages of the academic journey, including research endeavors, publication processes, employment opportunities, and promotion and tenure considerations, as well as recent developments related to COVID-19 and the #MeToo movement, which have further influenced discussions on inclusivity and diversity in the field. This chapter underscores the continued need for collective efforts from the economics community to confront these barriers through targeted research and innovative interventions. By enhancing the experiences and opportunities for underrepresented academics, the field of economics could be enriched through fostering a broader range of perspectives, which could also facilitate a deeper understanding of complex societal issues. In line with this objective, the chapter also provides valuable data sources that researchers can utilize to investigate disparities and offer information about collectives and programs dedicated to promoting inclusivity and diversity through mentoring initiatives, research grants, and other forms of support. |
| Keywords: | promotion, tenure, economics, minorities, gender, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | A11 A20 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17584 |
| By: | Brenøe, Anne Ardila (University of Zurich); Eyibak, Zeynep (University of Zurich); Heursen, Lea (Humboldt University Berlin); Ranehill, Eva (University of Gothenburg); Weber, Roberto A. (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | Economic research on gender gaps has focused on variation based on the binary classification of "men" and "women". We explore whether a self-reported continuous measure of gender identity (CGI) explains variation in economic decisions and outcomes beyond the relationship with binary gender. We analyze data from four diverse populations (N=8, 018), including measures of economic preferences and educational and labor market outcomes. We find that CGI is significantly associated with economic outcomes, with stronger relationships for men than women. Our results indicate that incorporating measures of self-reported gender identity could enhance our understanding of gender gaps in economic behavior and outcomes. |
| Keywords: | gender identity, non-binary gender, economic preferences, economic outcomes |
| JEL: | C91 J16 J2 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17564 |
| By: | van de Kraats, Coen (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Galama, Titus (University of Southern California); Lindeboom, Maarten (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Deng, Zichen (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence that the social norm (expectation) that adults work has a substantial detrimental causal effect on the mental well-being of unemployed men in mid-life, as substantial as, e.g., the detriment of being widowed. As their peers in age retire and the social norm weakens, the mental well-being of the unemployed improves. Using data on individuals aged 50+ from 10 European countries, we identify the social norm of work effect using exogenous variation in the earliest eligibility age for old-age public pensions across countries and birth cohorts. |
| Keywords: | mental well-being, social norm of work, retirement institution |
| JEL: | I10 I31 J60 D63 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17586 |
| By: | Yoosoon Chang (Department of Economics, Indiana University and Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP) at the BI Norwegian Business School); Steven N. Durlauf (University of Chicago); Bo Hu (Department of Economics, Indiana University); Joon K. Park (Department of Economics, Indiana University) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a fully nonparametric model to investigate the dynamics of intergenerational income mobility for discrete outcomes. In our model, an individual’s income class probabilities depend on parental income in a manner that accommodates nonlinearities and interactions among various individual and parental characteristics, including race, education, and parental age at childbearing. Consequently, we offer a generalization of Markov chain mobility models. We employ kernel techniques from machine learning and further regularization for estimating this highly flexible model. Utilizing data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we find that race and parental education play significant roles in determining the influence of parental income on children’s economic prospects. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational income mobility, ordered multinomial probability model, nonparametric estimation, heterogeneous treatment effects, reproducing kernel Hilbert space, effects of parental education |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2024008 |
| By: | Govind, Yajna (Copenhagen Business School); Melbourne, Jack (Bocconi University); Signorelli, Sara (CREST); Zink, Edith (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Does the labeling of neighborhoods affect their outcomes? Place-based policies targeting disadvantaged areas aim to improve their conditions, but the labels they impose carry consequences of their own. In this paper, we examine Denmark's Ghetto Plan which designated public housing areas with a large share of immigrant population, high crime, and high unemployment as "ghettos", with minimal additional implications. We exploit Danish administrative data, and adopt a Difference-in-Differences approach at the neighborhood and individual level. We find that the policy led to worsening average characteristics at the neighborhood level, largely due to compositional changes driven by Danish new entrants with lower income and education levels. Following individuals affected by the policy, we find significant negative effects on their income with no discernible effects on criminal behavior. We estimate that Danes are willing to accept a 3% drop in income to move out of labeled neighborhoods. In all, the Danish ghetto policy was largely ineffective, and in some aspects, even detrimental. |
| Keywords: | residential segregation, place-based policies, migration, neighborhood effects |
| JEL: | J15 J18 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17573 |
| By: | Hermes, Henning; Krauß, Marina; Lergetporer, Philipp; Peter, Frauke; Wiederhold, Simon |
| Abstract: | This field experiment investigates the causal impact of mothers' perceptions of gender norms on their employment attitudes and labor-supply expectations. We provide mothers of young children in Germany with information about the prevailing gender norm regarding maternal employment in their city. At baseline, over 70% of mothers incorrectly perceive this gender norm as too conservative. Our randomized treatment improves the accuracy of these perceptions, significantly reducing the share of mothers who misperceive gender norms as overly conservative. The treatment also shifts mothers' own labor-market attitudes towards being more liberal - and we show that specifically the shifted attitude is a strong predictor of mothers' future labor-market participation. Consistently, treated mothers are significantly more likely to plan an increase in their working hours one year ahead. |
| Keywords: | gender equality, gender norms, maternal employment, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | C93 J16 J18 J22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:308051 |
| By: | Kovacic, Matija; Orso, Cristina Elisa |
| Abstract: | This research investigates why some women like STEM occupations more than others. We show that this phenomenon is rooted in historical kin-based norms and specific aspects of cognition, perceptions, and aspirations enforced by the normative demands of ancestral societies. Using a sub-population of second-generation immigrants from the European Social Survey (ESS), we find that intensive kinship ties, supported by strong cousin-marriage preferences, co-residence of extended families, and community endogamy, which resulted in the enforcement of stricter social norms and greater conformity while discouraging individualism, independence, and analytical thinking, had a persistent negative impact on women's current STEM occupation choices. In addition to the individual-level analysis, we also document that kinship intensity reduces the proportion of women in STEM across countries, thereby widening the documented gender gaps. Furthermore, we show that the causal link between norms, cognition, and occupation is both direct and indirect, passing through contemporary cultural traits. At the same time, ancestral kin does not significantly affect men's occupational choices, while it increases the likelihood of having a gender-biased opinion about the role of women in the labour market. The results are robust to a rich set of potential confounding factors at the country of origin level and a battery of sensitivity checks. |
| Keywords: | Kin-based institutions, gender-based norms, analytic cognition, STEM |
| JEL: | D03 J16 N30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1522 |
| By: | Christl, Michael; Kiss, Aron; Nagl, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines labour market matching in Austria since 2008, with a particular focus on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic at the regional and sectoral level. We use comprehensive monthly administrative data and apply a standard matching model to estimate Beveridge curves for different labour market segments. Despite the disruptive effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, overall labour market conditions were relatively stable, with mismatched unemployment returning to pre-pandemic levels. This return to prepandemic levels is confirmed at the regional level. However, a sectoral analysis, as well as a sectoral regional analysis, reveals lasting effects in the hospitality and health care sector. |
| Keywords: | Beveridge curve, unemployment, matching efficiency, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | J21 J64 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1521 |
| By: | Kagerl, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "I study the ramifications of the German short-time work (STW) scheme using novel administrative data on STW and drawing on evidence from establishment surveys that are linked to the administrative data. I show that, besides financial reasons, firms value and use STW because it allows them to hoard labor in a tight labor market. During the pandemic, I document a strong negative selection into STW based on measures of firm quality and productivity, a pattern not observed during the financial crisis. This selection pattern is explained by the differing types of crises and their impact on establishments. Adjusting for selection, I then investigate the employment effects of STW in the pandemic and find 3-4% higher employment levels for firms utilizing STW. This relationship, however, vanishes quickly after firms exit STW, a result driven by outflows among STW firms being initially lower, but being higher after the end of STW. Partly due to eased access rules, I additionally find that the policy’s windfall effects, or deadweight losses, are large: While back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that up to half a million jobs were saved by STW in 2020, millions of jobs were supported in total, indicating an insufficient degree of targeting." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Pandemie ; IAB-Datensatz BeCovid ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Determinanten ; Finanzkrise ; IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel ; IAB-Betriebspanel ; Kurzarbeit ; Kurzarbeitergeld ; Mitnahmeeffekte ; Arbeitskräftehortung ; Umsatzentwicklung ; Unternehmen ; Arbeitsplatzsicherheit ; Arbeitsproduktivität ; 2009-2022 |
| JEL: | E24 J20 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202414 |
| By: | Pepin, Gabrielle (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Truskinovsky, Yulya (Wayne State University, Detroit) |
| Abstract: | As the U.S. population ages, family caregivers face substantial out-of-pocket costs and financial risks while providing the majority of long-term care. The Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC), a tax credit based on income and care spending, subsidizes caregiving expenses but has low participation among adult caregivers. This paper evaluates the CDCC's current structure, documenting its limited impact on reducing caregiving costs and examining reforms to increase its utility for adult caregivers. Simulations of proposed changes—higher benefits, refundability, and relaxed eligibility requirements—demonstrate potential to expand access and enhance support for family caregivers within the existing policy framework. |
| Keywords: | adult care, Child and Dependent Care Credit, American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, participation, eligibility |
| JEL: | H24 J14 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17560 |
| By: | Martín-Román, Ángel L.; Moral, Alfonso; Pinillos-Franco, Sara |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the gender gap in workplace sick leave duration, focusing on the underlying economic and biological factors that contribute to this disparity. Using a novel methodological approach, we combine the stochastic frontier technique with an Oaxaca-Blinder-type decomposition to separate sick leave into medically justified and "opportunistic" days. Our analysis, based on detailed administrative data of workplace accidents in Spain, reveals that men and women recover at different rates for the same injuries, with biological differences explaining the majority of the observed gender gap. Additionally, we identify that men tend to use more sick leave days for reasons unrelated to health recovery. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and employers, providing an empirical foundation for targeted policies that reduce gender-based discrimination in the workplace and ensure fairer resource allocation. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the gender gap in occupational health and offers implications for improving workplace equality. |
| Keywords: | Gender Gap, Sick Leave Duration, Workplace Accidents, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Occupational Health |
| JEL: | I12 I13 J16 J28 C21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1542 |
| By: | Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); López Molina, Gonzalo (Analistas Financieros Internacionales) |
| Abstract: | What is the future of international migration flows? The growing availability of bilateral international migration data has resulted in an improved understanding of the determinants of migration flows through the estimation of theory-based gravity models. However, the use of these models as a prediction tool has remained a mostly unexplored research area. This paper estimates simple gravity models of bilateral migration flows for the whole world and projects these models into the future. Our results confirm a limited role for economic factors and a large one for demographic ones, in line with the literature. As a novel contribution, we show that estimates based on net flows are substantially lower than those based on gross flows. The reason is that network effects are historically more correlated with gross than with net flows. |
| Keywords: | international migration, prediction, gravity model |
| JEL: | F22 J11 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17572 |
| By: | van de Beek, Jan (Amsterdam School of Economics); Hartog, Joop (University of Amsterdam); Kreffer, Gerrit (Independent Researcher); Roodenburg, Hans (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | We use very detailed microdata on fiscal contributions and benefits of the entire population to calculate the discounted lifetime net contribution of the immigrant population present in The Netherlands in 2016. We differentiate by immigration motive and up to 87 source regions. Labour migrants' net contribution is positive, study, family and asylum immigrants' contributions are negative. Second generation scholastic performance scores at age 12 by social background are similar to scores for native Dutch children, highest education attained for given test scores is also similar, but incomes for given education levels are lower, and so are net contributions. The gap between net contributions of individuals with immigrant background and without immigrant background does not root in attained levels of schooling but in the benefits from schooling. Regional cultural distance to Protestant Europe is associated with large fiscal net contributions. |
| Keywords: | fiscal incidence, immigrants, cultural distance |
| JEL: | H5 J6 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17569 |
| By: | Deepa Dhume Datta; Robert J. Vigfusson |
| Abstract: | Relative to diversity, inclusion is much harder to measure. We measure inclusion of women in economics using novel data on coauthoring relationships among Federal Reserve Board economists. Individual coauthoring relationships are voluntary, yet inclusion in coauthoring networks can be central to research productivity and career success. We document gender affinity in coauthoring, with individuals up to 34 percent more likely to have a same-gender coauthor in the data relative to what would be predicted by random assignment. Because women account for under 30 percent of Federal Reserve Board economists, gender affinity in coauthoring relationships may reduce research opportunities for women relative to their men peers. Whereas commonality of research interests is not sufficient to explain observed gender affinity in coauthoring, we find that paper outcomes may encourage gender affinity, in that papers authored by only men are more downloaded and more likely to be published than papers by mixed-gender teams. Gender affinity may contribute to the gender gap in authoring as well: women make up only 23 percent of authors in the later part of our sample, about 4 percentage points below their share of the economist population. We estimate that reducing gender affinity by men could eliminate between 1.5 to 3 percentage points of the gender gap in observed research output by women. Our findings on gender affinity in coauthoring provide an empirical assessment of the state of inclusivity in economics. |
| Keywords: | Central banks; Coauthoring networks; Diversity; Gender affinity; Inclusion; Leaky pipeline |
| JEL: | A14 J16 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-91 |
| By: | de Vries, Sander (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Ketel, Nadine (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Lindeboom, Maarten (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | There is a clear consensus that childhood experiences shape adult success, yet there is limited understanding of their impact on future generations. We proxy parental investments during childhood with birth order and study whether disadvantages due to lower investments are transmitted to future generations. Birth order effects on the first generation are large, apply to 80% of the population, and can be identified with relatively mild assumptions. Using cousin comparisons in Dutch administrative data, we find that around 20 percent of the income disadvantages are transmitted. Additionally, we find sizeable decreases in children's education and increases in boys' criminal behavior. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, birth order, extended family, education, crime |
| JEL: | D19 I24 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17570 |
| By: | Jirjahn, Uwe |
| Abstract: | This article reviews quantitative research on unions and collective bargaining in Sub-Saharan Africa. It discusses the consequences of unions for wages, inequality, economic performance and employer-employee relations. The article also highlights the role of unions in society, a role that goes beyond the economic sphere. Moreover, the article discusses evidence on how the specific situation in Sub-Saharan Africa influences unionization and collective bargaining. The informal sector, ethnic divide and globalization entail serious threats to workers' unionization. The increasing influence of China and neoliberal policy prescriptions by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are challenging factors, too. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Industrial Relations, Political Spillover, Informal Sector, Ethnic Diversity, Globalization |
| JEL: | J51 J52 F66 O10 O55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1550 |
| By: | Halla, Martin (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Schmidpeter, Bernhard (Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide and a critical public health concern. We examine the hypothesis of suicide contagion within in the workplace, investigating whether exposure to a coworker's suicide increases an individual's suicide risk. Using high-quality administrative data from Austria and an event study approach, we compare approximately 150, 000 workers exposed to a coworker's suicide with a matched group exposed to a "placebo suicide". We find a significant increase in suicide risk for exposed individuals, with a cumulative treatment effect of 0.04 percentage points (33.3 percent) over a 20-year post-event period. Exposed individuals who also die by suicide are more likely to use the same method as their deceased coworker, strongly suggesting a causal link. Two placebo tests bolster this interpretation: workers who left the firm before the suicide and those exposed to a coworker's fatal car accident do not show an elevated suicide risk. |
| Keywords: | suicide, workplace, contagion hypothesis, Werther-effect, mental health |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I18 D81 J10 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17580 |
| By: | Guarav Khanna; Nicolas Morales |
| Abstract: | We study how US immigration policy and the Internet boom affected not just the US, but also led to a tech boom in India. Students and workers in India acquired computer science skills to join the rapidly growing US IT industry. As the number of US visas was capped, many remained in India, enabling the growth of an Indian IT sector that eventually surpassed the US in IT exports. We leverage variation in immigration quotas and US demand for migrants to show that India experienced a 'brain gain' when the probability of migrating to the US was higher. Using detailed data on higher education, alumni networks, and work histories of high-skill workers, we show that changes in the US H-1B cap induced changes in fields of study, and occupation choice in India. We then build and estimate a quantitative model incorporating migration, heterogeneous abilities, trade, innovation, and dynamic occupation choice in both countries. We find that high-skill migration raised the average welfare of workers in each country, but had distributional consequences. The H-1B program induced Indians to switch to computer science occupations, and helped drive the shift in IT production from the US to India. We show that accounting for endogenous skill acquisition is key for quantifying the gains from migration. |
| Keywords: | High-skill migration; H-1Bs; India; computer scientists; IT sector; brain gain |
| JEL: | F16 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:99351 |
| By: | Galán, Juan Sebastián (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the intergenerational effects of providing land to the rural poor. I use ID numbers to track applicants to the 1968 Colombian agrarian reform and their children in various administrative data. Exploiting discontinuities in the allocation of parcels, I find that the children of recipients exhibit higher intergenerational mobility. In contrast to the view that land would tie them to the countryside, today these children participate more in the modern economy. They have better living standards and are more likely to work in formal and high-skilled sectors. These findings appear driven by a relief of credit constraints that allowed recipient families to migrate to urban centers and invest in the education of their children. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational mobility; agrarian reform; modern economy; Colombia. |
| JEL: | E24 J62 N36 O15 Q15 |
| Date: | 2024–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021266 |
| By: | Borjas, George J. (Harvard University); Breznau, Nate (German Institute for Adult Education (DIE)) |
| Abstract: | When studying policy-relevant topics, researchers' policy preferences may shape the design, execution, analysis, and interpretation of results. Detection of such bias is challenging because the research process itself is not normally part of a controlled experimental setting. Our analysis exploits a rare opportunity where 158 researchers working independently in 71 research teams participated in an experiment. After being surveyed about their position on immigration policy, they used the same data to answer the same well-defined empirical question: Does immigration affect the level of public support for social welfare programs? The researchers estimated 1, 253 alternative regression models, producing a frequency distribution of the measured impact ranging from strongly negative to strongly positive. We find that research teams composed of pro-immigration researchers estimated more positive impacts of immigration on public support for social programs, while anti-immigration research teams reported more negative estimates. Moreover, the methods used by teams with strong pro- or anti-immigration priors received lower "referee scores" from their peers in the experiment. These lower-rated models helped produce the different effects estimated by the teams at the tails of the immigration sentiment distribution. The underlying research design decisions are the mechanism through which ideology enters the production function for parameter estimates. |
| Keywords: | impact of immigration, social cohesion, meta analysis |
| JEL: | C90 I38 J69 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17561 |
| By: | Möhlmann, Axel; Vogel, Edgar |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically analyses the effect of unemployment on mortgage loan late payments using German household panel data. Regressions with individual fixed effects suggest that for each person who becomes unemployed, the probability of missing a mortgage payment increases by two percentage points. The effect intensifies with the length of unemployment. When examining the interaction between mortgage late payments and households' debt service, we find that higher borrower-based risk amplifies the effect of unemployment. Crucially, the effect is non-linear. The odds of individuals who have lost their jobs making a late mortgage payment increases disproportionately for those with a debt service ratio of 30% to 40% of their income. This implies that capping debt service to income ratios can reduce the risk of mortgage defaults and buffer against labour market shocks, which is relevant for financial stability analysis and macroprudential regulation. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage loans, default, unemployment, DSTI, macroprudential policy, financial stability |
| JEL: | D14 G28 G21 G33 G51 J63 L85 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:308093 |
| By: | Deepa Dhume Datta; Nitzan Tzur-Ilan |
| Abstract: | To better understand the stalled progress of women in economics, we construct new data on women's representation and research output in one of the largest policy institutions—the Federal Reserve System. We document a slight increase in women’s representation over the past 20 years, in line with academic trends. We also document a significant gender gap in research output, especially for years in which economists have greater domestic responsibilities, but nearly absent gender gaps in policy output and career progression. This work complements existing research on women in academia, allowing a more comprehensive examination of progress in the economics profession. |
| Keywords: | Central banks; Diversity; Gender inequality; Leaky pipeline; Research output |
| JEL: | J16 A14 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-92 |
| By: | Yuchen Lu (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | Due to liberalized immigration policies in recent years, the number of foreign residents in Japan has surged. However, the issue of some foreign residents lacking public health insurance persists. This situation can negatively impact their future utility and may also generate negative externalities for the public health system due to their inability to access timely medical services, thereby leading to broader social and economic uncertainties. Given that the payment method for National Health Insurance essentially makes it a voluntary system, this study is the first to utilize nationwide microdata to investigate the factors that prevent foreign residents from enrolling in National Health Insurance. This study offers several new insights. Specifically, in companies where enrollment in Employees’ Health Insurance is not mandatory, foreign residents working as regular full-time employees are significantly less likely to enroll in National Health Insurance. Additionally, individuals who are job-seeking or unemployed, those engaged in other forms of employment including family workers and trainees, and those who have no concerns about their own health status all exhibit a significantly lower likelihood of enrollment. In the analysis of non-full-time regular employee samples, the economic conditions of the prefecture of residence, and whether the individuals country of nationality has implemented universal health insurance significantly affect enrollment in National Health Insurance. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that, compared to the large number of new cases following the prolonged spread of the pandemic, the initial panic caused by the outbreak may have served as a significant incentive for foreign residents in Japan to enroll in National Health Insurance. |
| Keywords: | Foreign residents, Public health insurance, Health coverage, Pooled cross-sectional data, Probit regression analysis |
| JEL: | I13 J15 F22 |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2024-026 |