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on Labour Economics |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson |
| Abstract: | We find expectations are more sensitive to economic growth than traditional wellbeing metrics. We examine Eurobarometer micro data from 1973-2023 on movements in life satisfaction along with data from 1995-2022 on five expectations variables on and individual’s life and their financial and job situations plus their views on the economic and employment situation of their country in the year ahead. These expectations start to decline several months before the onset of downturns with especially large drops for the Great Recession and Covid. Annual GDP growth is positively associated with these expectations variables while it is uncorrelated with life satisfaction. The unemployment rate and the CPI reduce both. We analyze data for 29 European countries to predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead using individuals’ fears of unemployment in the presence of country and year fixed effects and lagged unemployment. We also use firms' expectations of future employment, which are also predictive of what happens to unemployment three months later. Using our preferred model specification, we present out-of-sample predictions that track actual movements in unemployment rates closely over a period in which there were two major recessions and unemployment shifted by a factor of two. |
| JEL: | J60 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32006&r=lab |
| By: | Mareen Bastiaans; Robert Dur; Anne C. Gielen |
| Abstract: | In many Western countries, a sizeable group of people live on welfare benefits for a long time. Many of them suffer from mental health issues. This paper studies the labor market and mental health effects of an activation program targeting these long-term inactive people. We exploit the staggered implementation of the program in a difference-in-differences design. We find that the activation program hardly affects labor market outcomes. However, for those on mental health medication prior to the start of the program, the use of mental health medication substantially drops in the years following the start of the program. This effect is particularly pronounced and statistically significant for men. We also study spillover effects on the children of those targeted by the program, finding some tentative evidence for improved learning and mental health outcomes. |
| Keywords: | activation program, long-term inactive, welfare beneficiaries, mental health, intergenerational spillovers |
| JEL: | H53 I19 I38 J68 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10830&r=lab |
| By: | Marianna Brunetti (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Annalisa Fabretti (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Mariangela Zoli (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | In developed countries women have now achieved educational parity with men. Yet disparities persist in reaching top positions in the job market, with academia making no exception. This paper assesses the gender gap in career advancements in Italian universities over the 2013-2021 period, and explores the potential role of a third factor, i.e. mobility, besides competitiveness and scientific productivity typically investigated in the literature. The results, strongly robust, show a gender gap in advancements to associate professorship of about 4 percentage points, which is only partially explained by competitiveness, while scientific productivity and mobility do not seem to play a role. The estimated gender gap almost doubles for transitions to full professorship, and it remains unaffected when both competitiveness and scientific productivity are considered. Interestingly, mobility in this case matters: the gap is still there but (as much as 5 times) smaller when career advancements occur along with a move to a different University. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, competitiveness, productivity, mobility, higher education, academia |
| JEL: | J16 J71 |
| Date: | 2023–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:570&r=lab |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R. |
| Abstract: | This paper is a review of the literature in economics up to the early 1980s on the issue of estimating the earnings return to schooling and labor market experience. It begins with a presentation of Adam Smith's (1776) analysis of wage determination, with the second of his five points on compensating wage differentials being "the easiness or cheapness, or the difficulty and expense" of acquiring skills. It then proceeds to the analysis by Walsh (1935) estimating the net present value of investments at various levels of educational attainment. Friedman and Kuznets (1945) also used the net present value method to study the earnings in five independent professional practices. Based on the net present value technique, Becker (1964) estimates internal rates of return from high school and college/university schooling, primarily for native-born white men, but also for other demographic groups. The first regression-based approach is the development of the schooling-earnings function by Becker and Chiswick (1966), which relates the logarithm of earnings, as a linear function of years invested in human capital, with the application to years of schooling. This was expanded by Mincer (1974) to the "human capital earnings function" (HCEF), which added years of post-school labor market experience. Attractive features of the HCEF are discussed. Extensions of the HCEF in the 1970s and early 1980s account for interrupted labor marker experience, geographic mobility, and self-employment and unpaid family workers. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Schooling Earnings Function, Human Capital Earnings Function, Schooling, Labor Market Experience, Women, Immigrants, Less Developed Countries, Self-Employed, Unpaid Workers |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J3 J46 J61 O15 B29 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1365&r=lab |
| By: | Breno Braga; Gaurav Khanna; Sarah Turner |
| Abstract: | In the United States, rural and low-income communities have difficulty attracting and retaining physicians, potentially adversely impacting health outcomes. With a limited supply of physicians completing medical school at US universities, foreign-born and educated physicians provide a potential source of supply in underserved areas. For international medical school graduates (IMGs) the terms of the commonly used J-1 visa require a return to the home country for two years following employment in medical residency. Our analysis examines the extent to which the Conrad 30 Visa Waiver impacts the supply of physicians at state and local levels, particularly in areas designated as medically underserved. Changes in the federal limit on the number of waivers per state, combined with variation in the state-level restrictions on eligible specialties, and geographies in which physicians can work, provide evidence on the role of visa restrictions in limiting the supply of doctors. Expansion of the cap on visa waivers increased the supply of IMGs, particularly in states that did not limit waiver recipients to primary care physicians or particular places of employment. There is little evidence of reductions in US-trained doctors in states where IMG increases were the largest, suggesting little evidence for crowding out. |
| JEL: | I20 J6 J68 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32005&r=lab |
| By: | AlAzzawi, Shireen; Dang, Hai-Anh; Hlasny, Vladimir; Abanokova, Kseniya; Behrman, Jere |
| Abstract: | Various challenges are thought to render female-headed households (FHHs) vulnerable to poverty in the Arab region. Yet, previous studies have mixed results and the absence of household panel survey data hinders analysis of poverty dynamics. We address these challenges by proposing a novel typology of FHHs and analyze synthetic panels that we constructed from 20 rounds of repeated cross-sectional surveys spanning the past two decades from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Mauritania, Palestine, and Tunisia. We find that the definition of FHHs matters for measuring poverty levels and dynamics. Most types of FHHs are less poor than non-FHHs on average, but FHHs with a major share of female adults are generally poorer. FHHs are more likely to escape poverty than households on average, but FHHs without children are most likely to do so. While more children are generally associated with more poverty for FHHs, there is heterogeneity across countries in addition to heterogeneity across FHH measures. Our findings provide useful inputs for social protection and employment programs aiming at reducing gender inequalities and poverty in the Arab region. |
| Keywords: | poverty, feminization, female-headedness typology, synthetic panels, Arab region, household surveys |
| JEL: | I3 J16 N35 O1 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1363&r=lab |
| By: | Erin M. Kelley; Gregory V. Lane; Matthew Pecenco; Edward A. Rubin |
| Abstract: | Many workers are evaluated on their ability to engage with customers. We measure the impact of gender-based customer discrimination on the productivity of online sales agents in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using a novel framework that randomly varies the gender of names presented to customers without changing worker behavior, we find the assignment of a female-sounding name leads to 50 percent fewer purchases. Customers also lag in responding, are less expressive, and avoid discussing purchases. We show similar results for customers around the world and across workers. Removing customer bias, we find women would be more productive than their male co-workers. |
| JEL: | J16 O12 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31998&r=lab |
| By: | Alessandra Fenizia; Raffaele Saggio |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run economic impact of dismissing city councils infiltrated by organized crime. Applying a matched difference-in-differences design to the universe of Italian social security records, we find that city council dismissals (CCDs) increase employment, the number of firms, and industrial real estate prices. The effects are concentrated in Mafia-dominated sectors and in municipalities where fewer incumbents are re-elected. The dismissals generate large economic returns by weakening the Mafia and fostering trust in local institutions. The analysis suggests that CCDs represent an effective intervention for establishing legitimacy and spurring economic activity in areas dominated by organized crime. |
| JEL: | H5 J08 P0 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32002&r=lab |
| By: | Alya Sakinah Zahirah (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Muhammad Ryan Sanjaya (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada) |
| Abstract: | The share of poor families with female heads of household is steadily increasing, from 14.41% in 2013 to 16.72% in 2019. This is in contrast to the declining poverty rate over the same period. We examine whether families with female heads of household tend to be less prosperous than those with male household heads using the wealth index constructed from the 2019 National Socioeconomic Survey data. In contrast to the hypothesized feminization of poverty theory, we find that households with female heads are more likely to be wealthier than those with male heads, even after controlling for sociodemographic factors of household heads as well as household characteristics. This finding sheds some light on the hypothesized feminization of poverty theory in the context of developing Asian countries. |
| Keywords: | gender, feminization of poverty theory, wealth index |
| JEL: | B54 I31 I32 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gme:wpaper:202312015&r=lab |
| By: | Giulia Ferrari; Anne Solaz; Agnese Vitali |
| Abstract: | Objective : The paper tackles the association between partners' relative earnings and union dissolution among couples in France. Background : With the increase in dual-earner couples and women’s educational level, couples in which women earn more than their partners are structurally becoming more widespread. Because female breadwinning challenges long-lived social norms regarding traditional gender roles, scholars have theorized a higher risk of union dissolution of female-breadwinner couples compared to couples in other income arrangements. Method : We estimate the risk of union dissolution using regression analyses on a unique longitudinal data from French administrative sources containing an unconventionally high number of couples (4% of the population) and separation events (more than 100, 000), as well as precise and reliable income measurement. Results : Female-breadwinner couples face a higher risk of union dissolution compared to other couple types. This result is robust to various definitions of female breadwinning and controls for both partners’ employment status. Contrary to recent research on other country settings, there is no sign of a fading effect among younger cohorts. However, younger, cohabiting couples and couples in civil partnerships enjoy a couple-stabilizing premium when both partners are employed with similar individual incomes, suggesting the emergence of a new egalitarian equilibrium within couple. Conclusion : The female-breadwinner penalty in union dissolution is in place also in gender-egalitarian France, it holds among married and cohabiting couples and registered partnerships, across all birth cohorts and levels of household income. |
| Keywords: | union dissolution, divorce, female-breadwinner couples, income, cohabitation, France, ANALYSE DE REGRESSION / REGRESSION ANALYSIS, DIVORCE / DIVORCE, COHABITATION / COHABITATION, COUPLE / COUPLE, ANALYSE LONGITUDINALE / LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, FRANCE / FRANCE, SEPARATION / SEPARATION, REVENU / INCOME |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:l5xgfiwb-5e4ngnwf5ny&r=lab |
| By: | Christian Ochsner |
| Abstract: | Does a short episode of conflict or exposure to hostile troops cause regional economic backwardness, and if so, why and how does it persist? I answer these questions by exploiting economic differences across the idiosyncratic and short-lived line of contact between the Red Army and the Western Allies in South Austria at the end of WWII. Spatial regression discontinuity estimates show that hostile presence of the Red Army for 74 days caused an immediate relative population decline of around 12%, amplified to 25% by today. Age-specific migration patterns and subsequent fertility differences explain the multiplying effects. Sector development and measures of local labor productivity in 2011 also lag behind in regions briefly seized by the Red Army, likely driven by skill-specific migration and hampered investment patterns after WWII. The findings provide novel insights into the long-run effects of wars and conflicts, and point to the isolated role of the Red Army’s hostile actions after WWII to understand the European economic East-West divide. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, Hostility, Population shock, Regional development, Red Army |
| JEL: | D74 J13 N44 O14 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp768&r=lab |
| By: | Andersson, Jonatan (Department of Economic History, Uppsala University); Molinder, Jakob (Department of Economic History, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | The process of industrialization is typically associated with urbanization and a widening urban-rural skills gap. To what extent were these disparities driven by the direct impact on occupational attainment of living in an urban area or the result of the positive self-selection of more-skilled individuals into cities? In this paper, we leverage exceptional Swedish longitudinal data that allow us to estimate the impact of rural-urban migration on skill attainment during Sweden’s industrialization from the 1880s to the 1930s using a staggered treatment difference-in-difference estimator. We attribute roughly half of the gap in urban-rural skills to a direct impact of living in an urban area, whereas the other half is driven by self-selection into cities. A third of the direct impact of residing in cities is explained by a static effect, reflecting better initial matching, while the rest is the result of a dynamic effect as individuals upgrade their skills over time in urban areas. We conclude that cities had a substantial effect on skill development in Sweden around the turn of the nineteenth century that is likely to extend to other European and North American economies that were industrializing around the same time. |
| Keywords: | Rural-urban migration; skills; industrialization |
| JEL: | J62 N33 N34 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uuehwp:2024_012&r=lab |
| By: | Nigussie, Likimyelesh; Minh, Thai Thi; Schmitter, Petra |
| Abstract: | Achieving gender equality in irrigation can result in greater production, income, and job opportunities for both men and women smallholder farmers from diverse social groups, while building climate resilience in sub-Saharan Africa. In Ethiopia, national irrigation agencies, donors, and researchers have been assisting project implementers to mainstream gender issues into the planning and implementation of irrigation programs. However, although efforts to close gender gaps in irrigation have been increasing, little is known about how interactions among institutions at different scales may determine the success of gender-mainstreaming strategies. This study presents a qualitative analysis of how the interaction of institutions at multiple levels can shape the success of gender-mainstreaming strategies. Specifically, the study analyzed how institutions' rules, roles, and capacities at state, market, community, and household levels shaped strategies in Ethiopia's nine small-scale and micro irrigation development projects. The findings show that ‘rule-based’ strategies adopted by small, scheme-based irrigation projects emphasize policies and rules for equal rights and opportunities for equal participation in individuals' and institutions' decision-making and capacity development. ‘Role-based’ strategies adopted by projects promoting small-scale and micro irrigation technologies focus on challenging social norms to address the imbalance of power and workloads by developing the capacity of all stakeholders. Both strategies focus on women and use participatory approaches to ensure gender equality. Negative stereotypes about women from families, communities, and the private sector often make it difficult for gender mainstreaming to succeed. Furthermore, institutional biases and limited capacities reproduce gender inequality by reinforcing stereotypical gender norms. Transformative gender mainstreaming strategies are critical to holistic approaches that facilitate change at different scales through broad-based partnerships between actors. It calls for 1) enacting policy, creating an institutional environment, and developing governance mechanisms for mainstreaming gender; 2) enhancing the accountability system and adoption of gender-transformative approaches to involve more women farmers in designing, planning, and management; 3) creating a supportive institutional environment at market, community and household level that helps women farmers invest in irrigation; and 4) applying an intersectional lens in gender analysis and mainstreaming. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, International Development |
| Date: | 2023–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iwmirr:339146&r=lab |
| By: | Valeria Cirillo; Francesco Massimo; Matteo Rinaldini; Jacopo Staccioli; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate the impact of monopoly power on the world of work within the logistics sector, particularly in the context of automation processes. We conduct a fieldwork analysis of three workplaces situated in Italy, each owned by distinct types of monopolies: a conventional monopoly, Phillip Morris, the global leader in tobacco and cigarette production; a state-owned monopoly, Poste Italiane, the exclusive public provider of mail services within the national borders; and a novel form of digital monopoly that holds control over intangibles and exhibits monopsonistic control over labour - Amazon. Through a comparative examination of these three diverse forms of monopolies, utilising corporate-level metrics and patent data, we scrutinise the impact on the labour process of individuals employed in the logistics sector and affected by the implementation of automation technology, such as Automated Guided Vehicles. Employing a qualitative analysis that includes semi-structured interviews with HR professionals, IT specialists, and workers, we underscore that powerful monopolies play a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of technological development, adoption, and utilisation. Despite notable distinctions observed among the three cases, we underscore a common trend of standardisation and codification of human activities when interfacing with automated machines. |
| Keywords: | automation; intangibles; monopoly power; labour process; case studies; tasks; organization of work |
| Date: | 2023–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2023/44&r=lab |
| By: | Pierre Pelletier; Kevin Wirtz |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between scientists' cognitive profile and their ability to generate innovative ideas and gain scientific recognition. We propose a novel author-level metric based on the semantic representation of researchers' past publications to measure cognitive diversity both at individual and team levels. Using PubMed Knowledge Graph (PKG), we analyze the impact of cognitive diversity on novelty, as measured by combinatorial novelty indicators and peer labels on Faculty Opinion. We assessed scientific impact through citations and disruption indicators. We show that the presence of exploratory individuals (i.e., cognitively diverse) is beneficial in generating distant knowledge combinations, but only when balanced by a significant proportion of exploitative individuals (i.e., cognitively specialized). Furthermore, teams with a high proportion of exploitative profiles tend to consolidate science, whereas those with a significant share of both profiles tend to disrupt it. Cognitive diversity between team members appears to be always beneficial to combining more distant knowledge. However, to maximize the relevance of these distant combinations of knowledge, maintaining a limited number of exploratory individuals is essential, as exploitative individuals must question and debate their novel perspectives. These specialized individuals are the most qualified to extract the full potential of novel ideas and integrate them within the existing scientific paradigm. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.10476&r=lab |
| By: | Lea Heursen (HU Berlin); Eva Ranehill (University of Gothenburg, Lund University); Roberto Weber (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | We study whether one reason behind female underrepresentation in leadership is that female leaders are less effective at coordinating followers’ actions. Two experiments using coordination games investigate whether female leaders are less successful than males in persuading followers to coordinate on efficient equilibria. In these settings, successful coordination hinges on higher-order beliefs about the leader’s capacity to convince followers to pursue desired actions, making beliefs that women are less effective leaders potentially self-confirming. We find no evidence that such bias impacts actual leadership performance, precisely estimating the absence of a gender leadership gap. We further show that this result is surprising given experts’ priors. |
| Keywords: | gender; coordination games; leadership; experiment; |
| JEL: | D23 C72 C92 J1 |
| Date: | 2023–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:472&r=lab |
| By: | Taniya Ghosh (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Yadavindu Ajit (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | With the transparency revolution across the world, this paper aims to investigate the effect of increased central bank transparency on inflation dynamics. We use the-oretical and empirical methods to show the importance of various institutional factors and their interdependence. Using a panel of advanced economies from 1998 to 2017, we investigate the role of central bank transparency in influencing inflation persistence in the presence of institutional factors such as central bank independence and labor market institutions, along with policy uncertainty. While previous research has examªined the role of these institutional variables independently, this paper focuses on how these variables influence the efficacy of central bank transparency. We find that while central bank transparency reduces inflation persistence, its overall effect depends on the level of other variables. The role of central bank transparency in reducing inflation persistence can further be enhanced when we have an independent central bank, colªlective wage bargaining happening at the central level, relaxed labor laws, and lower policy uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Inflation persistence, Central bank transparency, Central bank independence, Labor market institutions; Interdependence; Policy uncertainty |
| JEL: | D81 D82 E31 E52 E58 J51 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2023-012&r=lab |