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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Bijwaard, Govert (NIDI - Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of unemployment on out-migration by distinguishing between return and onward migration and controlling for total earnings. We use Timing-of-Events models and control for the endogeneity of total earnings, unemployment and out-migration using administrative data from the Netherlands. Our findings suggest that unemployment triggers return migration more than onward migration. When total earnings are low unemployment increases the hazard of return migration. When total earnings are high the hazard rate of onward migration for unemployed immigrants increases. Thus, these findings highlight that out-migration is affected both by unemployment and by total earnings as well as by the interaction between the two. |
| Keywords: | migration dynamics, temporary migration, target savers, unemployment |
| JEL: | F22 J61 C41 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15148&r= |
| By: | Martin González-Rozada; Hernan Ruffo |
| Abstract: | Unemployment insurance transfers should balance the provision of consumption to the unemployed with the disincentive effects on the search behavior. Developing countries face the additional challenge of informality. Workers can choose to hide their employment state and labor income in informal jobs, an additional form of moral hazard. To provide evidence about the effects of this policy in a country affected by informality we exploit kinks in the schedule of transfers in Argentina. Our results suggest that higher benefits induce moderate behavioral responses in job-finding rates and increase re-employment wages. We use a sufficient statistics formula from a model with random wage offers and we calibrate it with our estimates. We show that welfare could rise substantially if benefits were increased in Argentina. Importantly, our conclusion is relevant for the median eligible worker that is strongly affected by informality. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment Insurance, Sufficient statistics, Regression kink design, Instrumental Variables. |
| JEL: | C41 I38 J65 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpecon:2022_01&r= |
| By: | Hirsch, Boris; Lentge, Philipp; Schnabel, Claus |
| Abstract: | In Germany, employers used to pay union members and non-members in a plant the same union wage in order to prevent workers from joining unions. Using recent administrative data, we investigate which workers in firms covered by collective bargaining agreements still individually benefit from these union agreements, which workers are not covered anymore, and what this means for their wages. We show that about 9 percent of workers in plants with collective agreements do not enjoy individual coverage (and thus the union wage) anymore. Econometric analyses with unconditional quantile regressions and firm-fixed-effects estimations demonstrate that not being individually covered by a collective agreement has serious wage implications for most workers. Low-wage non-union workers and those at low hierarchy levels particularly suffer since employers abstain from extending union wages to them in order to pay lower wages. This jeopardizes unions' goal of protecting all disadvantaged workers. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining,union wage,uncovered workers,Germany |
| JEL: | J31 J53 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:faulre:123&r= |
| By: | Hall, Robert E. (Stanford University); Kudlyak, Marianna (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups—those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded tremendously in April 2020, at the trough of the pandemic recession. They wait out periods of non-work with the understanding that their jobs still exist and that they will be recalled. We show that the resulting temporary-layoff unemployment mostly dissipated by the end of 2020. Potential workers without jobs constitute what we call jobless unemployment. Shocks that elevate jobless unemployment have much more persistent effects. Historical major adverse shocks, such as the financial crisis in 2008, created mostly jobless unemployment and consequently caused extended periods of elevated unemployment. Jobless unemployment reached its pandemic peak in November 2020, at 4.9%, modest by historical standards, and has declined at a faster-than-historical pace since. |
| Keywords: | business cycle, recovery, unemployment, recession, layoffs, temporary layoff, recall, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E32 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15136&r= |
| By: | Doran, Kirk (University of Notre Dame); Gelber, Alexander (University of Pennsylvania); Isen, Adam (U.S. Department of the Treasury) |
| Abstract: | We compare winning and losing firms in lotteries for H-1B visas, matching administrative data on these lotteries to administrative tax data on U.S. firms and to approved U.S. patents. Winning one additional H-1B visa crowds out about 1.5 other workers at the firm. Additional H-1Bs have insignificant and at most modest effects on firm innovation. More general evidence from the universe of U.S. firms and the universe of H-1B visas using alternative estimation strategies is consistent with these results. Firms that hire H-1Bs grow faster and innovate more because they are different in other ways from firms that do not. |
| Keywords: | immigration, highly skilled workforce, innovation, employment |
| JEL: | J00 J08 J15 J23 J24 J48 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15146&r= |
| By: | Anne Portlock (Department of Economics and Geosciences, US Air Force Academy) |
| Abstract: | The Nurse Licensure Compact forged an environment of multi-state professional licensing. Under the compact, registered nurses licensed in one of the now twenty-five party states may legally practice in the other participating states. This paper examines how mutual reciprocity of occupational licensing reduces barriers to employment. A sample of active duty military spouses, who do not have the luxury of making relocation decisions based on license transferability, was constructed using the American Communities Survey from 2001 to 2015 in order to identify effects on labor market participation. One would otherwise be confounded by the influence of employment opportunities on location selection. Both logistic regression and a linear probability model with state and year fixed effects are used to estimate the effect of multistate licensing. The treatment group consists of nurses whose military spouse was relocated from one party state to another participating state and consequently would be eligible for license reciprocity. The control group is composed of similar nurses whose spouse's military reassignment was not between compact states for whom re-entering the workforce would require certification in the new state. Results indicate significant reductions in departures from the labor force, identifying the labor market inefficiencies created by single-state professional licensing. |
| Keywords: | Occupational Licensing, Professional Licensing, Nurse Licensure Compact, License Reciprocity, Multi-state Licensing, Military Assignments, Military Spouses, Geographic Mobility in Health Professions |
| JEL: | J44 I18 J08 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ats:wpaper:wp2022-3&r= |
| By: | Serrano-Serrat, Josep |
| Abstract: | Different strands in social sciences have analyzed the role of specific skills on distinct political stances, however, a consensus has not been reached yet. This is so because some scholars stress the fact that specific skills tend to shelter workers from job loss (replaceability thesis), while others that it decreases re-employment potential (portability thesis). To tackle these contradictory results, in the current paper I argue that OSS are a key element in shaping labor market prospects, and for studying this relation scholars should move beyond theories about firm-specific skills (FSS). The main difference outlined is that, contrary to FSS, occupational context moderates how OSS shape labor market prospects. I claim that OSS affect two key elements that allow to explain redistribution preferences: social mobility and social risks. Both of these effects are moderated by occupational context. After a discussion about how OSS shape labor market prospects, a simple formal model of redistribution preferences is presented. I show the relevance of this new approach using different rounds from the ESS and the ISSP. |
| Date: | 2022–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rz9c6&r= |
| By: | Sara Rellstab (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Pieter Bakx (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Pilar Garci‡-G—mez (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of a miscarriage on mental health care use, labour market and family outcomes of women and their partners using Dutch linked ad- ministrative data. Miscarriages are common and largely random conditional on age. We estimate event study models using women with a completed pregnancy as a control group. A first miscarriage increases womenÕs use of mental health ther- apy compared to the control group. These effects disappear over time. Partners are equally likely to use any mental health care as the control group. There are differences in labour market outcomes and probability of living together. |
| Keywords: | health investment, education, human capital, health capital, dynamic optimal control, longevity |
| JEL: | J13 J16 I1 |
| Date: | 2022–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220027&r= |
| By: | Abbritti, Mirko; Consolo, Agostino |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how labour market heterogeneity affects unemployment, productivity and business cycle dynamics that are relevant for monetary policy. The model matches remarkably well the short and long run dynamics of skilled and unskilled workers. Skill mismatch and skill-specific labour market institutions have three main effects on business cycles and growth dynamics. First, as the composition of labour market skills leads to supply segmentation, the relative scarcity of skilled workers increases the natural rate of unemployment and reduces total factor productivity with long-run effects on the growth rate of output. Second, skill heterogeneity in the labour market generates asymmetric outcomes and ampli.es measures of employment, wages and consumption inequality. Finally, the model provides important insights for the Phillips and Beveridge curves. Skill-specific labour market heterogeneity leads to a flattening of the Phillips curve as wages and unemployment are affected differently across skill types. Also, the model generates sideward shifts of the Beveridge curve following business cycle shocks that are related to the degree of skill heterogeneity. JEL Classification: E24, E3, E5, O41, J64 |
| Keywords: | Beveridge curve, consumption inequality, endogenous growth, labour market, monetary policy, Phillips curve, skill heterogeneity, unemployment fluctuations |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222651&r= |
| By: | Davis, Steven J.; Haltiwanger, John C.; Handley, Kyle; Lerner, Joshua; Lipsius, Ben; Miranda, Javier |
| Abstract: | The effects of private equity buyouts on employment, productivity, and job reallocation vary tremendously with macroeconomic and credit conditions, across private equity groups, and by type of buyout. We reach this conclusion by examining the most extensive database of U.S. buyouts ever compiled, encompassing thousands of buyout targets from 1980 to 2013 and millions of control firms. Employment shrinks 13% over two years after buyouts of publicly listed firms - on average, and relative to control firms - but expands 13% after buyouts of privately held firms. Post-buyout productivity gains at target firms are large on average and much larger yet for deals executed amidst tight credit conditions. A post-buyout tightening of credit conditions or slowing of GDP growth curtails employment growth and intra-firm job reallocation at target firms. We also show that buyout effects differ across the private equity groups that sponsor buyouts, and these differences persist over time at the group level. Rapid upscaling in deal flow at the group level brings lower employment growth at target firms. |
| Keywords: | administrative data,business cycle,credit conditions,employment,private equity,productivity |
| JEL: | D24 G24 G32 G34 J23 J63 L25 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:102022&r= |
| By: | Hammer, Luisa; Hertweck, Matthias S. |
| Abstract: | EU Eastern Enlargement elicited a rise in (temporary) labour market oriented immi-gration to Germany starting in May 2011. Taking into account that not all immigrantsstay permanently and that outmigration flows are selective, this paper classifies recent EUimmigrants into 'new arrivals' and 'stayers' drawing on administrative social securitydata (2005-2017). This novel strategy allows us to separately identify their potentiallyopposing short- and medium-run effects on labour market outcomes in Germany. We finda transitory negative wage effect among German nationals, particularly at the bottom ofthe wage distribution; and a permanent positive effect on full-time employment. |
| Keywords: | EU Eastern Enlargement,immigration,wages,employment,Germany |
| JEL: | E24 F22 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:022022&r= |
| By: | Hall, Robert E. (Stanford University); Kudlyak, Marianna (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was fairly tightly distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. In the aftermath of a recession, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment declines slowly and smoothly at a near-constant proportional rate. We show that similar properties hold for other measures of the US unemployment rate and for the unemployment rates of many other emerging and advanced countries. |
| Keywords: | business cycle, recovery, unemployment, recession |
| JEL: | E32 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15135&r= |
| By: | Jay Rappaport; Carlo Pizzinelli; Ms. Era Dabla-Norris |
| Abstract: | Labor markets in the UK have been characterized by markedly widening wage inequality for lowskill (non-college) women, a trend that predates the pandemic. We examine the contribution of job polarization to this trend by estimating age, period, and cohort effects for the likelihood of employment in different occupations and the wages earned therein over 2001-2019. For recent generations of women, cohort effects indicate a higher likelihood of employment in low-paying manual jobs relative to high-paying abstract jobs. However, cohort effects also underpin falling wages for post-1980 cohorts across all occupations. We find that falling returns to labor rather than job polarization has been a key driver of rising inter-age wage inequality among low-skill females. Wage-level cohort effects underpin a nearly 10 percent fall in expected lifetime earnings for low-skill women born in 1990 relative to those born in 1970. |
| Keywords: | Job polarization, Occupational choice, Life-cycle, Cohorts, Intergenerational inequality |
| Date: | 2022–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/042&r= |
| By: | Hufe, Paul (University of Bristol); Kobus, Martyna (Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences); Peichl, Andreas (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München); Schüle, Paul (Ifo Institute for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Are the United States still a land of opportunity? We provide new insights on this question by invoking a novel measurement approach that allows us to target the joint distribution of income and wealth. We show that inequality of opportunity has increased by 77% over the time period 1983-2016. Increases are driven by two distinct forces: (i) a less opportunity-egalitarian distribution of income until 2000, and (ii) a less opportunity-egalitarian distribution of wealth after the financial crisis in 2008. In sum, our findings suggest that the US have consistently moved further away from a level playing field in recent decades. |
| Keywords: | fairness, intergenerational mobility, time trends, measurement |
| JEL: | D31 D63 J62 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15149&r= |
| By: | Joachim Kahr Rasmussen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, a vast literature has documented how yearly transmissions of wealth through inheritances constitute a non-negligible share of GDP in Western economies. However, it is still somewhat unclear whether these transmissions are invested in human capital and thereby help families sustain social and economic status across many generations or rather represent transmission of mere consumption. In this paper, I exploit detailed wealth records from Denmark along with multi-generational family linkages in order to investigate the extent at which inheritances from grandparents are invested children. Leveraging heterogeneity in inheritances along with variation in the relative timing of grandparent death and school examination years, I find that inheritances have a substantial impact on child human capital accumulation as measured by school performance if received around the time of birth, while the impact is smaller in later years. In a series of event studies, I rationalize this finding. In particular, I provide evidence of substantial reductions in parental labor supply in response to receiving inheritances, and this reduction is stronger when parents have young children. In addition, I find that parents move to neighborhoods with better schools — but once again only if their children are small. |
| Keywords: | Inheritances, Intergenerational Mobility, Early Childhood Development |
| JEL: | E21 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2022–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2203&r= |
| By: | Mette Foged (Mette Foged); Cynthia van der Werf (Cynthia van der Werf) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether proximity to language classes raises refugees’ language proficiency and improves their social and economic integration. Our identification strategy leverages the opening, closing and gradual expansion of local language training centers in Denmark, as well as the quasi-random assignment of the refugees to locations with varying proximity to a language training center. First, we show that refugees’ distance from the assigned language training center is as good as random. Second, we show that language skills decrease monotonically with commuting time such that a one-hour decrease in commuting time increases fluency in the Danish language by 4 to 6 percent relative to the sample mean. The exogenous variation in language proficiency generates substantial positive effects on post language training human capital acquisition and on the integration of the refugees in the local communities where they were initially placed, as measured by the lower exit rates from those same communities and lower mobility to the largest, most immigrant-dense, cities in Denmark. |
| Keywords: | refugee integration, language skills |
| JEL: | J24 J60 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2210&r= |
| By: | Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina; Martín-Román, Ángel L. |
| Abstract: | Okun's law is an extremely influential parameter in empirical research and policy analysis, based on the sizable number of estimates from this perspective. Nevertheless, it is also subject to considerable heterogeneity. We first show graphical and statistical evidence on the existence of a high level of heterogeneity among Okun's law estimates in existing research, then analyze potential sources of heterogeneity. Using 1,213 estimates of Okun's law for various countries, regions, and time periods, separate metaregressions are estimated; one using estimates with the unemployment rate as the dependent variable, and the other with output as the dependent variable. Our findings indicate that the specification of the underlying model of the relationship has an effect on the magnitude of Okun's parameter. Differential labor market characteristics may also explain part of the observed heterogeneity. Finally, the results are also found to be influenced by methodological issues, such as the type of data (time series or panel data), the frequency of the data (annual or quarterly), the spatial coverage of the estimates (country, region, or group of countries), whether more variables are included in estimations, and whether a dynamic or static, symmetric or asymmetric model is estimated. This paper contributes to highlight the heterogeneity affecting the estimates of Okun's law and that needs to be taken into account. In order to know the "true" relationship between unemployment and economic growth, researchers should bear in mind that there are a number of methodological choices that have consequences for the results. |
| Keywords: | Okun’s Law,heterogeneity,metaregression |
| JEL: | C55 E23 E24 J60 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1069&r= |