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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Anna Maria Mayda; Francesc Ortega; Giovanni Peri; Kevin Y. Shih; Chad Sparber |
| Abstract: | The United States' H-1B visa program, which allows private firms to hire highly skilled foreign workers, was so severely over-subscribed in the years since 2014 that H-1B status was distributed by lotteries to a subset of applicants. Using data on H-1B applications and on a range of outcomes for publicly traded companies, we find that employers using the H-1B program experienced reduced employment, sales and profits, compared to non-users in the years since 2014. We also find that some employers anticipated the rationing of H-1Bs and retained a larger share of H-1B workers, mitigating the damaging effects of H-1B rationing on their performance. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27730&r=all |
| By: | Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Sydney); Dahmann, Sarah C. (University of Sydney); Gielen, Anne C. (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | We use a quasi-experimental design and national administrative data to analyze the intergenerational effects of introducing non-search activity requirements for unemployment benefit recipients. The Mutual Obligations Initiative (MOI) required people aged 18-34 receiving unemployment benefits to undertake a range of non-search activities (e.g., volunteering, training) in addition to job search. The young adults (aged 23-28) we study were in early adolescence in 1999 when the MOI was introduced. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we find that those young adults whose fathers were subject to the MOI have a lower incidence of unemployment benefit receipt in comparison to those whose fathers were not. More detailed investigation suggests that completion of the mandated activities, role modeling, changes in attitudes, improved health, and greater support and stability are potential channels for this effect. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, active labor market policy, Mutual Obligations Initiative, intergenerational treatment effects |
| JEL: | J68 J64 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13618&r=all |
| By: | Cortes, Matias (York University, Canada); Forsythe, Eliza (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we show that the COVID-19 pandemic led to a loss of aggregate real labor earnings of more than $250 billion between March and July 2020. By exploiting the panel structure of the CPS, we show that the decline in aggregate earnings was entirely driven by declines in employment; individuals who remained employed did not experience any atypical earnings changes. We find that job losses were substantially larger among workers in low-paying jobs. This led to a dramatic increase in inequality in labor earnings during the pandemic. Simulating standard unemployment benefits and UI provisions in the CARES Act, we estimate that UI payments exceeded total pandemic earnings losses between March and July 2020 by $9 billion. Workers who were previously in the bottom third of the earnings distribution received 49% of the pandemic associated UI and CARES benefits, reversing the increases in labor earnings inequality. These lower income individuals are likely to have a high fiscal multiplier, suggesting these extra payments may have helped stimulate aggregate demand. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, earnings inequality, unemployment insurance |
| JEL: | J31 J65 J68 H53 H84 E24 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13643&r=all |
| By: | Fiaschi, Davide (University of Pisa); Tealdi, Cristina (Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | We aim to identify winners and losers of a sudden inflow of low-skilled immigrants using a general equilibrium search and matching model in which employees, either native or nonnative, are heterogeneous with respect to their skill level and produce different types of goods. We estimate the short-term impact of this shock for Italy in the period 2008-2017 to be sizeable and highly asymmetric. In 2017, the real wages of low-skilled and high-skilled employees were 8% lower and 4% higher, respectively, compared to a counter-factual scenario with no non-natives. Similarly, employers working in the low-skilled market experienced a drop in profits of comparable magnitude, while the opposite happened to employers operating in the high-skilled market. Finally, the presence of non-natives led to a 10% increase in GDP and to an increment of approximately 70 billions € in Government revenues and 18 billions € in social security contributions. We argue that these results help rationalise the recent surge of anti-immigrant sentiments among the low-income segment of the Italian population. |
| Keywords: | immigration, welfare, search and matching |
| JEL: | J61 J64 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13600&r=all |
| By: | Kouki, Amairisa (Nottingham Trent University); Sauer, Robert M. (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | Using data on American women and the health status of their children, this paper studies the effect of remote work on female earnings. Instrumental variables estimates, which exploit a temporary child health shock as exogenous variation in the propensity to work at home, yield an hourly wage penalty of 77.1 percent. Earnings losses together with positive selection, and alternative first stage regressions, suggest that task re-assignment or lack of social interaction are likely mechanisms. The estimates also have implications for the costs of social distancing during a pandemic and may be especially applicable when children must be temporarily quarantined. |
| Keywords: | female labor supply, female earnings, remote work, fertility, health, instrumental variables, COVID-19, pandemic, quarantine, lockdown |
| JEL: | C26 J13 J22 I19 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13648&r=all |
| By: | Mansour, Hani (University of Colorado Denver); Medina, Pamela (University of Toronto); Velasquez, Andrea (University of Colorado Denver) |
| Abstract: | We study gender differences in the labor market reallocation of Peruvian workers in response to trade liberalization. The empirical strategy relies on variation in import competition across local labor markets based on their industrial composition before China entered the global market in 2001. We find that exposure to Chinese imports led to short-run declines in the employment share of women and men. However, the adverse employment effects are only persistent for women, leading to a reduction in their labor force participation. Lack of job market opportunities in the non-tradable sector act as a significant friction that prevents women from fully offsetting trade-induced displacements. |
| Keywords: | import competition, female employment, gender discrimination |
| JEL: | E24 F14 J16 J71 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13608&r=all |
| By: | Gevrek, Deniz (Texas A&M University Corpus Christi); Gevrek, Z. Eylem (Universidade Catolica Portuguesa, Porto); Guven, Cahit (Deakin University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of health and economic conditions at birth on the adult outcomes of child immigrants using the Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Study. Our sample consists of children from 39 countries who were brought to the United States before the age of 13. We estimate immigrant outcomes as a function of the infant mortality rate (IMR) and GDP per capita of their home country in the year of birth, controlling for birth-year, year-of-arrival and country-of-birth fixed effects, as well as demographic characteristics. IMR has a significant negative impact on English reading ability and GPA in middle school. IMR significantly decreases first job prestige, years of schooling, working hours, log earnings and income satisfaction. Some of these effects appear to be working through the lower middle school GPA. IMR does not influence self-rated health or labour market participation in adulthood, and there is no statistically significant relationship between GDP per capita and adult outcomes. Our estimates are of economic significance: the impact of being born in 1975 versus 1976 in Nicaragua in terms of the impact of IMR on earnings is equal to the gender effect on earnings, while the effect on income satisfaction of being born in Cuba in 1975 versus 1976 in terms of the impact of IMR is about equal to the father's high school completion effect. Our results cannot be explained by selection on observables: the pre-migration characteristics of children and parents are not associated significantly with the health and economic conditions at birth. Also, several tests show that our results cannot be explained by potential selection on unobservables. These results are robust to sample attrition and the inclusion of cohort trends and interaction effects between age-at-arrival and home country conditions. |
| Keywords: | adult outcomes United States, infant mortality, birth conditions, immigrants |
| JEL: | I14 J13 J15 J28 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13602&r=all |
| By: | Barth, Erling (Institute for Social Research, Oslo); Roed, Marianne (Institute for Social Research, Oslo); Schone, Pal (Institute for Social Research, Oslo); Umblijs, Janis (Institute for Social Research, Oslo) |
| Abstract: | Using novel matched employer-employee register data with firm-level information on the introduction of industrial robots, this paper analysis the impact of robots on the wages of workers in the manufacturing sector. The results show that industrial robots increase wages for high-skilled workers relative to low-skilled workers, hence robots increases the skill-premium within firms. Furthermore, we find that employees in managerial positions benefit more from robotisation than those in STEM or professional occupations. Overall, our results suggest that the introduction of industrial robots has a positive effect on the average wages of manufacturing workers in Norway. |
| Keywords: | automation, robotisation, labour economics, wages, technological change |
| JEL: | J01 J08 O33 E24 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13605&r=all |
| By: | Chen, Shuo (Fudan University, China); Xie, Bin (Jinan University) |
| Abstract: | The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 banned Chinese immigration and institutionalized discrimination against Chinese in U.S. society. This study examines the impact of institutional discrimination on the assimilation of Chinese by exploiting the passage of the Act and the state-level variation in the intensity of discrimination, measured by the voting outcomes of the Act and the number of anti-Chinese incidents. Our difference-in-differences estimates show that discrimination substantially slowed the occupational assimilation of Chinese in the Exclusion Era (1882–1943) and that Chinese in the U.S. reacted to discrimination by investing in human capital, improving English skills, and increasingly adopting Americanized names. The triple difference estimates show that these effects are significantly stronger in states with higher support rates of the Act or greater numbers of anti-Chinese incidents. These findings are not driven by the selection in migration and fertility. |
| Keywords: | the Chinese Exclusion Act, assimilation, human capital, name Americanization |
| JEL: | J15 N31 K37 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13647&r=all |
| By: | Huw Beynon (WISERD, Cardiff University); Helen Blakely (WISERD, Cardiff University); Alex Bryson (SRI, University College London); Rhys Davies (WISERD, Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | Spatial variance in union membership has been attributed to the favourable attitudes that persist in areas with an historical legacy of trade unionism. Within the UK, villages and towns located in areas once dominated coalmining remain among the strongest and durable bases for the trade union movement. This paper empirically examines the effect of living within or near these areas upon union membership. Those residing in ex-mining areas retain an increased propensity for union membership. However, this effect diminishes sharply with distance. The analysis reveals that particular places can serve as conduits of trade unionism, long after employment within traditional industries has vanished. |
| Keywords: | Union Membership, Spatial Variance, Spill-Over, Coalmining |
| JEL: | J50 J51 |
| Date: | 2020–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:2007&r=all |
| By: | Molina, Teresa (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Rivadeneyra, Ivan (University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of a 2008 policy that eliminated tuition fees at public universities in Ecuador. We use a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits variation across cohorts differentially exposed to the policy, as well as geographic variation in access to public universities. We find that the tuition fee elimination significantly increased college participation and affected occupation choice, shifting people into higher-skilled jobs. We detect no statistically significant effects on income. Overall, the bulk of the benefits of this fee elimination were enjoyed by individuals of higher socioeconomic status. |
| Keywords: | higher education, tuition reduction, Ecuador |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I28 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13638&r=all |
| By: | Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos (World Bank); Vazquez, Emmanuel (Universidad Nacional de la Plata); Winkler, Hernan (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Evidence about the effect of exports on welfare at the local level is scarce. Using a unique dataset of international trade and poverty maps for almost 2,000 Mexican municipalities between 2004 and 2014, the study presented in this paper provides new evidence on the impact of a significant rise in exports on poverty and inequality at the local level. The analysis implements an instrumental variable approach that combines the initial structure of exports across municipalities with global trends in exports from developing to developed countries by sector. The results show that a 10 percent increase in the ratio of exports to workers reduces income inequality measured by the Gini coefficient by 0.17 points (using a 0 to 100 scale), but no significant effects on poverty reduction or average household incomes are identified. The lack of impacts on average incomes is driven by a rise in the supply of labor at the local level because municipalities with higher export growth experienced an increase in labor force participation and attracted more net migration, particularly of unskilled workers. Therefore, while total labor incomes grew in response to an increase in exports, average labor incomes per worker did not change. Declining remittances also blunted the effect of growing exports on household incomes. |
| Keywords: | international trade, exports, poverty, labor markets, migration |
| JEL: | F14 F16 I3 D3 J61 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13610&r=all |
| By: | Ho, Christine (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Myong, Sunha (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | Women’s economic empowerment has been hailed as one of the most remarkable revolutions in the past 50 years (Dunlop, 2010). Access to affordable childcare is one of the key determinants of fertility and maternal employment, with grandparents and governments often stepping up to provide much needed support to families. This chapter proposes a synthesis of the state of knowledge on child care and discusses policy relevant issues applicable to the Singapore context. Selected policies are documented and lessons from the international landscape are discussed. The chapter discusses how child care costs may affect fertility and maternal labour supply in Section 10.2. Raising children incurs both direct costs in the form of child care and opportunity costs in the form of career costs. As women struggle to jungle between the pressures of raising children and contributing as breadwinners, many delay motherhood. The trade-offs between child care, maternal employment, and fertility are discussed. The feminization of child care also seems to be an important contributor to such pressure, especially in many Asian countries. In Section 10.3, common child care support available to parents are documented and their implications on fertility and maternal labour supply are discussed. Child related support such as baby bonus and parental leave may help boost fertility. Formal child care subsidies may also help incentivize both fertility and maternal employment. Similarly, the availability of informal care support from grandparents and domestic helpers may also help boost both fertility and maternal employment. Future directions for child care policy research are discussed in Section 10.4. Providing opportunities for greater gender equality in household child care may help increase the efficacy of child care policies in boosting fertility and parental labour supply. Such policies may include flexible parental leave coupled with campaigns to reduce the stigma associated with child care leave. Policies may also include formal and informal child care subsidies coupled with good quality child care. |
| Date: | 2020–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2020_018&r=all |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development); Mendola, Mariapia (University of Milan Bicocca) |
| Abstract: | How does immigration affect incomes in the countries migrants go to, and how do rising incomes shape emigration from the countries they leave? The answers depend on whether people who migrate have higher or lower productivity than people who do not migrate. Theory on this subject has long exceeded evidence. We present estimates of emigrant selection on both observed and unobserved determinants of income, from across the developing world. We use nationally representative survey data on 7,013 people making active, costly preparations to emigrate from 99 developing countries during 2010–2015. We model the relationship between these measures of selection and the income elasticity of migration. In low-income countries, people actively preparing to emigrate have 30 percent higher incomes than others overall, 14 percent higher incomes explained by observable traits such as schooling, and 12 percent higher incomes explained by unobservable traits. Within low-income countries the income elasticity of emigration demand is 0.23. The world's poor collectively treat migration not as an inferior good, but as a normal good. Any negative effect of higher income on emigration within subpopulations can reverse in the aggregate, because the composition of subpopulations shifts as incomes rise—an instance of Simpson's paradox. |
| Keywords: | international migration, economic development, self-selection |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13612&r=all |
| By: | Jacques Mairesse; Michele Pezzoni; Fabiana Visentin |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate what are the factors of the promotion of female and male scientists at the French Institute of Physics (INP) at CNRS, one of the largest European public research organizations. We construct a long panel of INP physicists combining various data sources on their research activities and career. Using event history analysis, we find that female and male physicists have the same rate of promotion from junior to senior positions when controlling for research productivity and a variety of other promotion factors. Our results also suggest that promotion factors such as family characteristics, mentoring, professional network, research responsibilities have different impacts on female and male researchers. |
| JEL: | I23 J16 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27789&r=all |
| By: | Orazio Attanasio (University College London); Áureo de Paula (University College London); Alessandro Toppeta (University College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the evolution of socio-emotional skills over the life cycle and across generations. We start by characterising the evolution of these skills in the first part of the life cycle. We then examine whether parents’ socio-emotional skills in early childhood rather than in adolescence are more predictive of their children’s socio-emotional skills. We exploit data from the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) and focus on two dimensions of socioemotional skills: internalizing and externalizing skills, linked respectively to the ability of focusing attention and engaging in interpersonal activities. When looking at the evolution of socio-emotional skills over the life cycle, we notice a considerable amount of persistence which leads to a rejection of the simple Markov dynamic models often used in the literature. The BCS70 contains data on the skills of three generations. Moreover, the skills for cohort members and their children are not observed at the same calendar time, but at similar ages. We establish that parents’ and children’s socio-emotional skills during early childhood are comparable and estimate intergenerational mobility in socio-emotional skills, examining the link between the parent’s socio-emotional skills at age 5, 10 and 16 and the child’s socio-emotional skills between ages 3 and 16. We show that the magnitudes of intergenerational persistence estimates are smaller than the magnitude of intergenerational persistence estimates in occupation and income found for the United Kingdom. Finally, we estimate multi-generational persistence in socio-emotional skills and find that the grandmother’s internalizing skill correlates with the grandchild’s socio-emotional skills even after controlling for parental skills. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, Inequality, socio-emotional skills, spectral gap mobility index |
| JEL: | J62 D63 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2020-066&r=all |
| By: | Giovanni Peri; Derek Rury; Justin C. Wiltshire |
| Abstract: | We examine the economic impact of the large migration of Puerto Ricans to Orlando after Hurricane Maria. Using a synthetic control approach, we find that employment in Orlando increased, especially in construction and retail, and find positive aggregate labor market effects for non-Hispanic and less-educated workers. While we find that earnings for these workers decreased slightly in construction, this was balanced by earnings growth in retail and hospitality. These results are consistent with small negative impacts on earnings in sectors exposed to a labor supply shock, offset by positive effects in sectors impacted by an associated positive consumer demand shock. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J21 J61 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27718&r=all |
| By: | Yudai Higashi (Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Okayama University and Junior Research Fellow, Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of industrial agglomeration on a non-working individual's decision to search for a job. The theory implies that agglomeration reduces search costs, enabling non-working individuals to search for jobs. The empirical analyses, using Japanese microdata, find that agglomeration raises the probability of searching for a job, supporting the theoretical prediction. Furthermore, this effect is significant only for females who are less educated, middle-aged and older, and married without children. Such groups tend to benefit from agglomeration because they have relatively higher potential search costs than do other groups. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration; Local labor market; Labor force participation; Heterogenous individual |
| JEL: | J64 R11 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2020-26&r=all |
| By: | Abhay Aneja; Guo Xu |
| Abstract: | We link personnel records of the federal civil service to census data for 1907-1921 to study the segregation of the civil service by race under President Woodrow Wilson. Using a difference-in-differences design to compare the black-white wage gap around Wilson's presidential transition, we find that the introduction of employment segregation increased the black wage penalty by 7 percentage points. This gap increases over time and is driven by a reallocation of already-serving black civil servants to lower paid positions. Our results thus document significant costs borne by minorities during a unique episode of state-sanctioned discrimination. |
| JEL: | J15 J45 M5 N4 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27798&r=all |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower (Dartmouth College); Alex Bryson (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Although there is a substantial literature indicating that unemployment and joblessness have profound adverse impacts on individuals’ health and wellbeing, there is relatively little evidence of their impact on sleep. Using data for over 3.5 million individuals in the United States over the period 2006-2019 from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey series we show sleep disruption patterns that vary by labor market status. We look at sleep measured by hours in a day and days in a month and whether sleep is disturbed over a fortnight, as indicated by problems falling or staying asleep or staying asleep too much. We find the short-term unemployed suffer more short and long sleep than the employed and are more likely to suffer from disturbed sleep. These problems are greater still for the long-term unemployed and for the jobless who say they are unable to work. |
| Keywords: | : sleep; short sleep; long sleep, disturbed sleep; unemployment; unable to work; joblessness; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I31 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:2013&r=all |
| By: | Yu, Yewen (Peking University); Fan, Yi (National University of Singapore); Yi, Junjian (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | This study finds that China's one-child policy (OCP), one of the most extreme forms of birth control in recorded history, has amplified economic inequality across generations in China since its introduction in 1979. Poor Chinese families, whose fertility choices are less constrained by the OCP than rich ones, have more children but invest less in human capital per child. Since human capital is a major determinant of earnings, the income inequality persists and enlarges across generations as a consequence. Based on nationally representative longitudinal household survey data, our estimation results show that the OCP accounts for 32.7%-47.3% of the decline in intergenerational income mobility. The OCP has significant ramifications for Chinese society, not only intragenerationally but also intergenerationally. |
| Keywords: | One-Child Policy, differential fertility, child quantity-quality tradeoff, intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | E24 J13 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13617&r=all |
| By: | Giuliano, Paola (University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature on gender and culture. Gender gaps in various outcomes (competitiveness, labor force participation, and performance in mathematics, amongst many others) show remarkable differences across countries and tend to persist over time. The economics literature initially explained these differences by looking at standard economic variables such as the level of development, women's education, the expansion of the service sector, and discrimination. More recent literature has argued that gender differences in a variety of outcomes could reflect underlying cultural values and beliefs. This article reviews the literature on the relevance of culture in the determination of different forms of gender gap. I examine how differences in historical situations could have been relevant in generating gender differences and the conditions under which gender norms tend to be stable or to change over time, emphasizing the role of social learning. Finally, I review the role of different forms of cultural transmission in shaping gender differences, distinguishing between channels of vertical transmission (the role of the family), horizontal transmission (the role of peers), and oblique transmission (the role of teachers or role models). |
| Keywords: | gender, culture, social norms |
| JEL: | A13 J16 Z1 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13607&r=all |
| By: | Wang, Feicheng (University of Göttingen); Kis-Katos, Krisztina (University of Goettingen); Zhou, Minghai (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of import liberalization induced labor demand shocks on male and female employment in China. Combining data from population and firm censuses between 1990 and 2005, we relate prefecture-level employment by gender to the exposure to tariff reductions on locally imported products. Our empirical results show that increasing import competition has kept more females in the workforce, reducing an otherwise growing gender employment gap in the long run. These dynamics were present both in local economies as a whole and among formal private industrial firms. Examining channels through which tariff reductions differentially affect males and females, we find that trade-induced competitive pressures contributed to a general expansion of female-intensive industries, a shift in sectoral gender segregation, reductions in gender discrimination in the labor market, technological upgrading through computerization, and general income growth. |
| Keywords: | trade liberalization, import competition, gender employment gap, China |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F16 F66 J16 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13626&r=all |
| By: | Pierre Azoulay; Benjamin Jones; J. Daniel Kim; Javier Miranda |
| Abstract: | Immigration can expand labor supply and create greater competition for native-born workers. But immigrants may also start new firms, expanding labor demand. This paper uses U.S. administrative data and other data resources to study the role of immigrants in entrepreneurship. We ask how often immigrants start companies, how many jobs these firms create, and how these firms compare with those founded by U.S.-born individuals. A simple model provides a measurement framework for addressing the dual roles of immigrants as founders and workers. The findings suggest that immigrants act more as "job creators" than "job takers" and that non-U.S. born founders play outsized roles in U.S. high-growth entrepreneurship. |
| JEL: | J15 L26 M13 O3 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27778&r=all |
| By: | Bellani, Luna (University of Konstanz); Hager, Anselm (University of Konstanz); Maurer, Stephan (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the persistence of the Southern slave owning elite in political power after the end of the American Civil War. We draw on a database of Texan state legislators between 1860 and 1900 and link them to their or their ancestors' slaveholdings in 1860. We then show that former slave owners made up more than half of nearly each legislature's members until the late 1890s. Legislators with slave owning backgrounds differ systematically from those without, being more likely to represent the Democratic party and more likely to work in an agricultural occupation. Regional characteristics matter for this persistence, as counties with higher soil suitability for growing cotton on average elect more former slave owners. |
| Keywords: | wealth inequality, elites and development, US South, intergenerational persistence, slavery |
| JEL: | D72 J62 N31 H4 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13611&r=all |
| By: | Angelucci, Manuela (University of Texas at Austin); Angrisani, Marco (University of Southern California); Bennett, Daniel (University of Southern California); Kapteyn, Arie (University of Southern California); Schaner, Simone G. (Dartmouth College) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and respiratory health for remote workers (i.e. those who can work from home) and non-remote workers in the United States. Using a large, nationally-representative, high-frequency panel dataset from March through July of 2020, we show that job losses were up to three times as large for non-remote workers. This gap is larger than the differential job losses for women, African Americans, Hispanics, or workers without college degrees. Non-remote workers also experienced relatively worse respiratory health, which likely occurred because it was more difficult for non-remote workers to protect themselves. Grouping workers by pre-pandemic household income shows that job losses and, to a lesser extent, health losses were highest among non-remote workers from low-income households, exacerbating existing disparities. Finally, we show that lifting non-essential business closures did not substantially increase employment. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, employment, working from home |
| JEL: | J2 J6 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13620&r=all |
| By: | Philipp Pfeiffer; Werner Roeger; Jan in ’t Veld |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a macroeconomic model to analyse the transmission of the COVID19-pandemic and its associated lockdown and quantify the stabilising effects of the economic policy response. Our simulations identify firm liquidity problems as crucial for shock propagation and amplification. We then quantify the effects of short-term work allowances and liquidity guarantees - central policy strategies in the European Union. The measures reduce the output loss of COVID19 and its associated lockdown by about one fourth. However, they cannot prevent a sharp but temporary decline in production. |
| JEL: | E32 E6 F45 J08 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:dispap:127&r=all |
| By: | Jeehoon Han; Bruce D. Meyer; James X. Sullivan |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing timely and accurate information on the impact of the current pandemic on income and poverty to inform the targeting of resources to those most affected and assess the success of current efforts. We construct new measures of the income distribution and poverty with a lag of only a few weeks using high frequency data from the Basic Monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), which collects income information for a large, representative sample of U.S. families. Because the family income data for this project are rarely used, we validate this timely measure of income by comparing historical estimates that rely on these data to estimates from data on income and consumption that have been used much more broadly. Our results indicate that at the start of the pandemic, government policy effectively countered its effects on incomes, leading poverty to fall and low percentiles of income to rise across a range of demographic groups and geographies. Simulations that rely on the detailed CPS data and that closely match total government payments made show that the entire decline in poverty that we find can be accounted for by the rise in government assistance, including unemployment insurance benefits and the Economic Impact Payments. Our simulations further indicate that of those losing employment the vast majority received unemployment insurance, though this was less true early on in the pandemic and receipt was uneven across the states, with some states not reaching a large share of their out of work residents. |
| JEL: | H53 I32 J65 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27729&r=all |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Many governments seek to reduce emigration from low-income countries by encouraging economic development there. A large literature, however, observes that average emigration rates are higher in countries with sustained increases in GDP per capita than in either chronically poor countries or established rich countries. This suggests an emigration life cycle in which average emigration rst rises, then falls with development. But this hypothesis has not been tested with global datasets controlling for unobserved heterogeneity between countries. This paper finds that emigration rises on average as GDP per capita initially rises in poor countries, slowing after roughly US$5,000 at purchasing power parity, and reversing after roughly $10,000. Before this reversal, the within-country elasticity of rising emigration prevalence to rising GDP per capita is +0.35 to all destinations, and +0.74 to rich destinations. This relationship between emigration ows and economic growth is highly robust to country and time effects (xed or random), specication (linear, log, nonparametric), emigration measure (stock or ow), country subsamples (rich destinations, large origins), and historical period (1960–2019 or 1850–1914). Decomposition of channels for this relationship highlight the joint importance of demographic transition, education investment, and structural change, but question a large role for transportation costs or policy barriers. |
| Keywords: | migration, development, hump, inverse-u, mobility, transition, pressure, poverty, immigration, emigration, demand, growth, opportunity, employment |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13614&r=all |
| By: | Bennett, Patrick (Norwegian School of Economics); Blundell, Richard (University College London); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Roughly one third of a cohort drop out of high school across OECD countries, and developing effective tools to address prime-aged high school dropouts is a key policy question. We leverage high quality Norwegian register data, and for identification we exploit reforms enabling access to high school for adults above the age of 25. The paper finds that considerable increases in high school completion and beyond among women lead to higher earnings, increased employment, and decreased fertility. As male education remains unchanged by the reforms, later life education reduces the pre-existing gender earnings gap by a considerable fraction. |
| Keywords: | adult education, returns to education, fertility, gender inequality |
| JEL: | I26 I28 J13 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13592&r=all |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower (University of Stirling, GLO, Bloomberg and NBER); Alex Bryson (University College London, NIESR and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Using data from 68 countries on over 8 million respondents over forty years we show union membership peaks in midlife – usually around workers’ late 40s or early 50s. In doing so we extend Blanchflower’s (2007) earlier study, incorporating a further 39 countries and another decade or so of data. We also found it in every US state and the District of Columbia as well as across industries. The fact that this relationship exists in virtually every country across the world challenges a key precept in industrial relations, namely that institutions matter: they appear to matter little, at least in the case of the hump-shaped relationship between unionization and age. The union membership rates at the age peak in the United States and the United Kingdom have lowered over time, while the age at which the peak has occurred has increased in both countries. In part this is due to increasing union membership rates among those over the age of sixty-five. Declines in membership by birth cohort have lowered union density rates as the older cohorts with historically higher membership rates leave labour markets. Although we have yet to fully understand why union membership peaks in midlife we are able to examine some of the possible explanations. The findings have important implications for our understanding of trade unionism across the world. |
| Keywords: | union membership; age; union density; cohort |
| JEL: | J14 J50 J51 |
| Date: | 2020–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:2006&r=all |
| By: | Remi Jedwab (George Washington University); Noel D. Johnson (George Mason University); Mark Koyama (George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | *This paper is part of a Symposium organized by Dr. Remi Jedwab of the George Washington University that will appear in the Journal of Economic Literature.* The Black Death was the largest demographic shock in European history. We review the evidence for the origins, spread, and mortality of the disease. We document that it was a plausibly exogenous shock to the European economy and trace out its aggregate and local impacts in both the short-run and the long-run. The initial effect of the plague was highly disruptive. Wages and per capita income rose. But, in the long-run, this rise was only sustained in some parts of Europe. The other indirect long-run effects of the Black Death are associated with the growth of Europe relative to the rest of the world, especially Asia and the Middle East (the Great Divergence), a shift in the economic geography of Europe towards the Northwest (the Little Divergence), the demise of serfdom in Western Europe, a decline in the authority of religious institutions, and the emergence of stronger states. Finally, avenues for future research are laid out. |
| Keywords: | Pandemics; Black Death; Institutions; Cities; Urbanization; Malthusian Theory; Demography; Long-Run Growth;Middle Ages; Europe; Asia |
| JEL: | N00 N13 I15 I14 J11 O10 O43 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2020-14&r=all |
| By: | Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales); Cheng, Zhiming (University of New South Wales); Mendolia, Silvia (University of Wollongong); Paloyo, Alfredo R. (University of Wollongong); Savage, David (University of Newcastle, Australia) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and the policy measures to control its spread – lockdowns, physical distancing, and social isolation – has coincided with the deterioration of people's mental well-being. We use data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) to document how this phenomenon is related to the situation of working parents who now have to manage competing time demands across the two life domains of work and home. We show that the worsening of mental health in the United Kingdom is worse for working parents, and that it is especially related to the increased financial insecurity and the time spent on childcare and home schooling. We find that this burden is not shared equally between men and women, and between richer and poorer households. In crafting public policy responses to the pandemic, better outcomes can be achieved if policymakers are cognizant of these inequalities. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, working parents, United Kingdom, childcare, mental health, financial insecurity |
| JEL: | I14 J16 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13588&r=all |
| By: | Alisa Tazhitdinova |
| Abstract: | Moonlighting is increasingly popular in OECD countries, with 5 to 10% of workers holding two or more jobs. However, little is known about the responsiveness of moonlighting to financial incentives due to the lack of identifying variation. This paper studies a unique reform in Germany that allowed workers to hold small secondary jobs tax-free, decreasing the marginal tax rate by between 19.5 to 66pp. I show that the reform resulted in a dramatic increase in moonlighting that was not offset by reductions in primary earnings, and that hours constraints is the key determinant of moonlighting. |
| JEL: | H2 J01 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27726&r=all |
| By: | Mbara, Gilbert (University of Warsaw); Tyrowicz, Joanna (University of Warsaw); Kokoszczynski, Ryszard (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model where employers may avoid making social security contributions by offering some workers "secondary contracts". When calibrated using aggregate tax revenue data, the model delivers estimates of secondary "off the books" employment that are consistent with survey evidence for the EU14 and United States. We investigate the fiscal and welfare effects of varying the avoidable and unavoidable shares of labor income tax while keeping the total wedge constant, and find that increasing the employer component raises hours worked, output, and welfare. Partial labor tax evasion makes tax revenues more elastic, but full tax compliance need not be a welfare enhancing policy mix. |
| Keywords: | Laffer Curve, tax evasion, labor market duality |
| JEL: | H2 H26 H3 E13 E26 J81 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13631&r=all |