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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Joshi, Heather (University College London); Bryson, Alex (University College London); Wilkinson, David (University College London); Ward, Kelly (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Using data tracking all those born in a single week in Great Britain in 1958 through to their mid-50s we observe an inverse U-shaped gender wage gap (GWG) over their life- course: an initial gap in early adulthood widened substantially during childrearing years, affecting earnings in full-time and part-time jobs. In our descriptive approach, education related differences are minor. Gender differences in work experience are the biggest contributor to that part of the gender wage gap we can explain in our models. Family formation primarily affects the GWG through its impact on work experience. Family composition is similar for male and female workers but attracts opposite wage premia. Not all of the GWG however is linked to family formation. There was a sizeable GWG on labour market entry and there are some otherwise unexplained gaps between the pay of men and women who do not become parents. |
| Keywords: | family formation, gender wage gap, work experience, life course, NCDS birth cohort |
| JEL: | J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12725&r=all |
| By: | Pascal Michaillat; Emmanuel Saez |
| Abstract: | This paper measures the unemployment gap (the difference between actual and efficient unemployment rates) using the Beveridge curve (the negative relationship between unemployment and job vacancies). We express the unemployment gap as a function of current unemployment and vacancy rates, and three sufficient statistics: elasticity of the Beveridge curve, recruiting cost, and nonpecuniary value of unemployment. In the United States, we find that the efficient unemployment rate started around 3% in the 1950s, steadily climbed to almost 6% in the 1980s, fell just below 4% in the early 1990s, and remained at that level until 2019. These variations are caused by changes in the level and elasticity of the Beveridge curve. Hence, the US unemployment gap is almost always positive and highly countercyclical—indicating that the labor market tends to be inefficiently slack, especially in slumps. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26474&r=all |
| By: | Javdani, Mohsen (University of British Columbia, Okanagan) |
| Abstract: | In this study we use Canadian linked employer-employee data to examine whether visible minority Canadian-borns experience any differences in their inter-firm and intra-firm job mobility, as well as wage returns associated with them, compared to white Canadian-borns. We also examine the extent to which any differences in intra-firm mobility operates within firms versus between firms. Our results suggest that both male and female visible minority Canadian-borns experience substantial differences in probability of promotion, number of times promoted, and wage returns to promotions, compared to their white peers. For male visible minorities, these differences with their white peers mainly operate within firms. For female visible minorities however, almost half of the gap is driven by their crowding into firms with fewer promotion opportunities. In terms of inter-firm mobility, while male visible minorities are similarly likely to move between firms compared to their white peers, female visible minorities are less likely to change employer. Both groups however receive similar wage returns to their inter-firm mobility. This seems to suggest that differences in intra-firm mobility do not translate into visible minorities moving more frequently between firms, or receiving higher returns to their inter-firm mobility. We find no evidence that these differences could be driven by differences in hierarchical level, career path, or immigration background. Labour market discrimination however remains a potential contributor to these differences, which is also consistent with some of our findings. Our results also suggest that for female visible minorities, different family responsibilities driven potentially by different cultural norms or family dynamics could also contribute to these differences. |
| Keywords: | promotions, inter-firm mobility, job mobility, visible minority, ethnic minority, discrimination |
| JEL: | J15 J62 J71 M51 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12736&r=all |
| By: | Martins, Pedro S. |
| Abstract: | Employee representatives in firms are a potentially key but not yet studied source of the impact of unions and works councils. Their actions can shape multiple drivers of firm performance, including collective bargaining, strikes, and training. This paper examines the impact of union rep mandates by exploiting legal membership thresholds present in many countries. In the case of Portugal, which we examine here, while firms employing up to 49 union members are required to have one union rep, this increases to two (three) union reps for firms with 50 to 99 (100-199) union members. Drawing on matched employer- employee data on the unionised sector and regression discontinuity methods, we find that a one percentage point increase in the legal union rep/members ratio leads to an increase in firm performance of at least 7%. This result generally holds across multiple dimensions of firm performance and appears to be driven by increased training. However, we find no effects of union reps on firm-level wages, given the predominance of sectoral collective bargaining. |
| Keywords: | Firm Performance,Union Delegates,Collective Bargaining |
| JEL: | J51 J31 L25 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:428&r=all |
| By: | Fernihough, Alan; Ó Gráda, Cormac |
| Abstract: | Are return migrants 'losers' who fail to adapt to the challenges of the host economy, and thereby exacerbate the brain drain linked to emigration? Or are they 'winners' whose return enhances the human and physical capital of the home country? These questions are the subject of a burgeoning literature. This paper analyze a new database culled from the 1911 Irish population census to address these issues for returnees to Ireland from North America more than a century ago. The evidence suggests that those who returned had the edge over the population as a whole in terms of human capital, if not also over those who remained abroad. |
| Keywords: | migration,brain gain,economic history,Ireland |
| JEL: | N N33 J61 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201908&r=all |
| By: | Alberto Alesina; Elie Murard; Hillel Rapoport |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between immigration and preferences for redistribution in Europe using a newly assembled data set of immigrant stocks for 140 regions in 16 Western European countries. Exploiting within-country variations in the share of immigrants at the regional level, we find that native respondents display lower support for redistribution when the share of immigrants in their residence region is higher. This negative association is driven by regions of countries with relatively large Welfare States and by respondents at the center or at the right of the political spectrum. The effects are also stronger when immigrants originate from Middle-Eastern or Eastern European countries, are less skilled than natives, and experience more residential segregation. These results are unlikely to be driven by immigrants' endogenous location choices, that is, by welfare magnet effects or by immigrants' sorting into regions with better economic opportunities. They are also robust to instrumenting immigration with a standard shiftshare approach or to controlling for regional growth prospects. |
| Keywords: | Income Redistribution;Population Heterogeneity;Welfare Systems;Immigration |
| JEL: | D31 D64 I3 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-15&r=all |
| By: | Bäckström, Peter (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how local labour market conditions influence the quality composition of those who volunteer for military service in Swe- den. I estimate a fixed-effects regression model on a panel data set containing IQ scores for those who applied for military basic training across Swedish municipalities during the period 2010 to 2016. The main finding is that low civilian employment rates at the local level tend to increase the mean IQ score of those who volunteer for military service, whereas the opposite is true if employment rates in the civil- ian labour market move in a more favourable direction. As such, the results suggest that the negative impact of a strong civilian economy on recruitment volumes is reinforced by a deterioration in recruit quality. |
| Keywords: | military labour market; military recruitment; self-selection; enlistment test; Roy model |
| JEL: | H56 J01 J20 J45 |
| Date: | 2019–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0964&r=all |
| By: | BEINE Michel; MACHADO Joël; RUYSSEN Ilse |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how countries' provision of migrant rights a ects potential migrants' destination choice. Combining data on bilateral migration desires from over 140 origin countries and data on migrant rights in 38 destination countries over the period 2007-2014, we nd that potential migrants tend to favor destinations that are more open to the inclusion of immigrants into their society. In particular, better access to and conditions on the labour market, as well as access to nationality and to permanent residency signi cantly increase the perceived attractiveness of a destination country. These results are robust across di erent speci cations and hold for subsamples of origin countries as well as of destinations. Moreover, some results vary across types of respondents. Educational opportunities for migrants, for instance, a ect the migration desires of individuals aged 15 to 24 years, but less so of individuals in other age groups. |
| Keywords: | Migration desires; Migrants' destination choice; Migrant rights; Quality of institutions; naturalization rights |
| JEL: | F22 O15 O57 P16 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2019-15&r=all |
| By: | Giorgio Barba Navaretti; Lionel Fontagné; Gianluca Orefice; Giovanni Pica; Anna Cecilia Rosso |
| Abstract: | Trade shocks in export markets may affect the employment composition and the organization of exporting firms. In particular, the imposition of new technological standards in destination markets may force exporters to adjust the firm's organization to comply and cope with the additional complexity of the new production process. This paper investigates the effects on firms' organization of shocks induced by the introduction of Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) in exporting countries. It relies on the Specific Trade Concern (STC) data released by the WTO to identify trade-restrictive TBT measures, combined with matched employer-employee data for the population of French exporters over the period 1995-2010. It also exploits information on the list of product-destinations served by each French exporter. Controlling for tariffs and for a given state of technology in the sector of the firm, it finds that exporters respond to increased complexity associated with restrictive Technical Barriers to Trade at destination by raising the share of managers at the expense of blue collars, white collars and professionals. This paper is related to the growing literature exploring how firms organize production in hierarchies to economize on their use of knowledge. It is also related to the well beaten literature on the labour market effects of trade, but from the perspective of exports rather than imports. |
| Keywords: | Skill Composition;Labor Demand;Job Polarization;Trade Barriers |
| JEL: | F13 F14 J53 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-14&r=all |
| By: | Rainer Franz Kotschy |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the long-run effects of major health improvements on income growth in the United States. To isolate exogenous changes in health, the econometric model uses quasi-experimental variation in cardiovascular disease mortality across states over time. The results show that there is a causal link between health and income per person, and they provide novel evidence that health dynamics shape life-cycle incomes. Compared to previous generations, life-cycle income profiles slope more strongly at the beginning and at the end of work life, such that age becomes a more prominent determinant of income dynamics. The channels for this transformation include better health, higher educational attainment, and changing labor supply. |
| Keywords: | age, mortality, life expectancy, productivity, education, labor supply |
| JEL: | I15 J11 J24 J31 O40 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7953&r=all |
| By: | Ayal Chen-Zion; James E. Rauch |
| Abstract: | We model network formation in a firm. Agents learn about the quality of their working relationships with each other. Their good relationships become their networks. Accumulating relationships becomes increasingly costly, however. Over time agents become less open to forming relationships with others unknown to them, leading their networks to be front-loaded with agents they met near the beginning of their careers. The interaction of this dynamic with turnover yields predictions about the time pattern of history dependence in an agent’s network as a function of his tenure. Mutual openness of newly arrived agents in a firm also leads to the cross-section prediction of “cohort attachment,” a tendency for members of an agent’s hiring cohort to be disproportionately represented in his network. When members of a network formed within a firm are subsequently split across many firms, the desire to renew their successful working relationships can lead to job referrals. Former co-workers who provide referrals will be drawn disproportionately from the referred workers’ hiring cohorts at their previous employers. |
| Keywords: | networks, history dependence, job referrals |
| JEL: | D85 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7952&r=all |
| By: | Berton, Fabio (University of Turin); Carreri, Anna (University of Verona); Devicienti, Francesco (University of Turin); Ricci, Andrea (INAPP – Institute for Public Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | Among the steps to improve a country's competitiveness, several commentators and international institutions include a general emphasis on deregulation and decentralization of industrial relations. In this paper, we contribute to this debate by studying whether and how firm-level unionism and collective agreements affect workplace training, a key ingredient to competitiveness. Theory provides inconclusive predictions on the various channels and processes through which firm-level industrial relations may affect workplace training. Quantitative and qualitative analyses, when used in isolation, have also proved insufficient for an adequate account of the various factors at play. This is where our paper mostly contributes. In the spirit of opening the "black box" of firm-level unionism and collective bargaining, we mix together quantitative and qualitative strategies. Our results suggest that workplace unionism, and especially decentralized collective agreements, favor workplace training in subtler and often more dynamic ways than commonly understood. |
| Keywords: | workplace training, industrial relations, firm-level bargaining, Italy |
| JEL: | J24 J52 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12712&r=all |
| By: | Yani Karavasilev (Asia Pacific Institute of Research); Chika Yamanami (Diversity & Engagement Dept.,Sony Corporate Services Corporation); Miki Kohara (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | Research on impression management has continuously highlighted the importance of a company’s brand equity in attracting talent. Whereas the determinants of company attractiveness are well documented, less is known about the effects of recruitment tactics, particularly in non-Western settings. We investigated these effects using survey data from 13 Japanese multinational companies (MNCs) and 436 international job seekers collected before and after a large-scale career fair held in Singapore in 2017. The unconventional setup of the fair allowed us to conduct the survey in a semi-experimental setting. Using endogeneity-robust linear, logit and probit models, we found that recruitment tactics significantly affect perceptions of company attractiveness regardless of job seekers’ pre-existing beliefs. The effect is larger in cases of high person-organization fit. The mechanism modulating this effect is the image of personnel heterogeneity a company is able to project through the characteristics of its recruiting staff. We identify the key dimensions of heterogeneity and provide estimates of the optimal personnel heterogeneity levels. Our findings build on previous research on targeted recruitment in Western settings, showing that the success of international recruitment is contingent not only on fixed firm characteristics, but also on a firms’ impression management tactics throughout the recruitment process. |
| Keywords: | Impression management, job matching, job fairs, international recruitment, company image, optimal staff heterogeneity |
| JEL: | M5 J5 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:19e012&r=all |
| By: | Breda, Thomas (Paris School of Economics); Bryson, Alex (University College London); Forth, John (Cass Business School) |
| Abstract: | Using panel data for nearly all service providers in a single industry sector, we examine productivity responses to changes in competition in the United States. The sector offers workplace employee representation through trade union branches which compete with one another for union members whose subscriptions they depend on to cover costs. As such, they have an interest in maximising productivity. Ours is the first study to measure service industry productivity using both price and quantity metrics. Consistent with manufacturing studies, we find market entrants have lower prices and higher Total Factor Productivity (TFP) than incumbents. Increased competition from new entrants leads incumbents to reduce the price of union membership; exit rates then rise among incumbents with the lowest prices who are constrained in adjusting their prices downwards. Those with higher TFP have higher survival probabilities. However, increased competition does not induce incumbents to raise their TFP. These findings are consistent with a market in which incumbents learn about market conditions but face high switching costs limiting their ability to invest in the new techniques that underpin the higher TFP of new entrants. |
| Keywords: | competition, productivity, TFP, trade unions, survival |
| JEL: | J5 L1 L2 L3 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12809&r=all |
| By: | Jacques Mairesse (Maastricht University (unu-merit); CREST-ENSAE; EHESS; NBER); Michele Pezzoni (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Fabiana Visentin (Maastricht University; UNU-MERIT) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the promotion dynamics at the largest European public research organization in basic science, the French Institute of Physics (INP) at CNRS. We construct a long panel combining a dataset on the career histories of INP scientists with information collected through an extensive survey. Using event history analysis, we find that, having controlled for scientific productivity, female and male physicists have the same promotion rate from junior to senior positions. However, promotion factors such as family characteristics, mentoring, professional network, research responsibilities have a different impact on female and male researchers. Our findings provide important hints to female and male researchers who intend to leverage these factors to develop a strategy for their promotion. |
| Keywords: | Gender parity, Promotion, Research productivity, Family characteristics, Research Responsibilities, Mentoring activities, Panel Data, Event history analysis |
| JEL: | I23 J13 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2019-36&r=all |
| By: | Colantone, Italo (Bocconi University); Matano, Alessia (University of Barcelona); Naticchioni, Paolo (University of Rome 3) |
| Abstract: | We study how firms and industries adjust to increasing international trade in intermediate inputs. In particular, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the effects of new imported inputs on wage dynamics, on the skill-composition of the labor force, on worker mobility, and on assortative matching between firms and workers. We employ matched employer-employee data for Italy, over 1995-2007. We complement these data with information on the arrival of new import-ed inputs at the industry level. We find new imported inputs to have a positive effect on average wage growth at the firm level. This effect is driven by two factors: (1) an increase in the white-collar/blue-collar ratio; and (2) an increase in the average wage growth of blue-collar workers, while the wage growth of white collars is not significantly affected. The individual-level analysis reveals that the increase in the average wage of blue collars is driven by the displacement of the lowest paid workers, while continuously employed individuals are not affected. We estimate the unobserved skills of workers following Abowd et al. (1999). We find evidence that new imported inputs lead to a positive selection of higher-skilled workers, and to an increase in the degree of positive assortative matching between firms and workers. |
| Keywords: | matched employer-employee data, wages, new imported inputs |
| JEL: | J01 J31 F14 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12715&r=all |
| By: | Ariell Reshef; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of labor shares in 1995-2014 while taking into account international trade based on value added concepts. On average, the decline in labor shares (starting around 1980) accelerates in 2001-2007, after which labor shares recover somewhat. In contrast, skilled labor shares consistently increase. The acceleration in the decline in labor shares is associated with increased intensity of intermediate input exporting; this manifests in a sharp increase in the foreign component in upstreamness of industries and countries in global value chains (GVCs). China's global integration accounts for much of this. Declines in the price of investment together with capital-skill complementarity can explain both the consistent increase in skilled labor shares and the reversal of trend in overall labor shares. Compared to shares in GDP, labor shares in gross national product (GNP) are higher in countries with positive net FDI positions; the uneven spread of multinational activity contributes to greater inequality through this channel. |
| Keywords: | Labor Share;Skilled Labor Share;Global Value Chains;Offshoring;Vertical Integration |
| JEL: | E25 F14 F15 F16 F66 J00 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-16&r=all |
| By: | Churchill, Brandyn (Vanderbilt University); Dickinson, Andrew (University of Oregon); Mackay, Taylor (University of California, Irvine); Sabia, Joseph J. (San Diego State University) |
| Abstract: | E-Verify laws, which have been adopted by 23 states, require employers to verify whether new employees are eligible to legally work prior to employment. In the main, these laws are designed to reduce employment opportunities for unauthorized immigrants, reduce incentives for their immigration, and increase employment and earnings for low-skilled natives. This study explores the impact of state E-Verify laws on crime. Using agency-by-month data from the 2004 to 2015 National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS), we find that the enactment of E-Verify is associated with a 5 to 10 percent reduction in property crimes involving Hispanic arrestees, an effect driven by universal E-Verify mandates that extend to private employers. Supplemental analyses from the Current Population Survey (CPS) suggest that E-Verify-induced increases in employment of low-skilled natives of Hispanic descent, and outmigration of younger Hispanics are important channels. We find no evidence that crime was displaced to nearby U.S. jurisdictions without E-Verify or that violent crime was impacted by E-Verify mandates. Moreover, neither arrests nor labor market outcomes of white or African American adults were affected by E-Verify laws. The magnitudes of our estimates suggest that E-Verify mandates generated $491 million in social benefits of reduced crime to the United States. |
| Keywords: | E-Verify, immigration, crime, employment |
| JEL: | K14 J61 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12798&r=all |
| By: | Andrei Matveenko; Sergei Mikhalishchev |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new role of quotas, e.g., labor market quotas: the attentional role. We study the effect of quota implementation on the attention allocation strategy of a rationally inattentive (RI) agent. Our main result is that a RI agent who is forced to fulfill a quota never hires the candidates without acquiring information about them, unlike an unrestricted RI agent who in some cases bases her decision on prior belief only. We also show that in our context quotas are equivalent to other types of affirmative policies such as subsidies and blind resume policy. We show how our results can be used to set a quota level that increases the expected value of the chosen candidate and also decreases statistical discrimination and discrimination in terms of how much attention is paid to each applicant. At the same time, quota implementation could be destructive if the social planner has imperfect information about the parameters of the model. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice; rational inattention; multinomial logit; quotas; |
| JEL: | D63 D81 D83 H23 J08 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp645&r=all |
| By: | Stark, Oded (University of Bonn); Jakubek, Marcin (Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences); Szczygielski, Krzysztof (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | We consider a tax-funded policy of admitting and integrating asylum seekers in a country in which the incomes of the native inhabitants are differentiated; for the sake of simplicity, we assume that there are just two groups of native inhabitants: high-income natives and low-income natives. As a consequence of their social preferences, the latter experience disutility caused by relative deprivation. Because integrating the asylum seekers into the mainstream labor force and thereby into the income distribution of the native population "from below" reduces the relative deprivation of the low-income natives, admitting and integrating asylum seekers can be socially beneficial. We derive the optimal number of asylum seekers by maximizing the natives' social welfare function that incorporates these considerations. We find that as long as the cost of admission and integration is not exceptionally high, this number is strictly positive. We then address the issue of how to distribute a given number of asylum seekers among several receiving countries. We find that, rather than allocating the asylum seekers in proportion to the population of each country, aggregate welfare will be maximized through an allocation that is increasing in the within-country difference between the incomes of the high-income natives and the low-income natives. Additionally, we formulate conditions under which admission of the optimal number of asylum seekers is socially preferable to a direct transfer of income from high-income natives to low-income natives. |
| Keywords: | admission and integration of asylum seekers, social preferences, relative deprivation, tax-funded integration policy, maximization of social welfare |
| JEL: | D60 F02 F22 I31 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12803&r=all |
| By: | Bozani, Vasiliki (University of Cyprus); Drydakis, Nick (Anglia Ruskin University); Sidiropoulou, Katerina (Anglia Ruskin University); Harvey, Benjamin (Anglia Ruskin University); Paraskevopoulou, Anna (Anglia Ruskin University) |
| Abstract: | This study provides empirical patterns regarding trans people's self-esteem-oriented reflections during observations of positive workplace actions. The case of a 2015 UK workplace guide is utilized to fulfil our aims. We adopt Rawls' political philosophy framework in order to evaluate whether trans people's self-esteem-oriented concepts might be enhanced by policy makers' positive actions. The study does find that trans people's self-esteem and self-respect are enhanced by policy makers' positive actions to promote inclusivity in the workplace. Due to these actions trans people feel more accepted, valued and trusted by the government. We suggest that if a workplace policy is perceived to be recognizing trans people's worth this may be internalized, resulting in positive self-evaluations by trans people. In addition, we present empirical patterns from HR departments which have been aware of the workplace guide. HR officers suggest that the workplace guide informs their strategies, and positively affects the creation of a more inclusive workplace culture, the corporate profiles of their firms and staff organizational behaviours (such as, achieving results, fostering collegiality, reducing complaints) and addresses LGBT business and trans staff-members' needs. We suggest that if employers adopt policy makers' positive workplace policies aiming to increase inclusivity, they may be able to realize positive organizational outcomes in their firms. |
| Keywords: | workplace guide, positive actions, self-esteem, gender identity |
| JEL: | K31 J11 D03 H11 H5 I18 J15 I31 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12732&r=all |
| By: | Daniel L. Dench; Theodore J. Joyce |
| Abstract: | Hoynes, Miller and Simon (2015), henceforth HMS, report that the national expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is associated with decreases in low birth weight. We question their findings. HMS’s difference-in-differences estimates are unidentified in some comparisons, while failed placebo tests undermine others. Their effects lack a plausible mechanism as the association between the EITC and prenatal smoking also fails placebo tests. We contend that the waning of the crack epidemic is a possible confound, but we show that any number of policies directed at poor women also eliminate the effect of the EITC when aggregated to the national level. Identifying small, causal effects of a national policy at a single point in time is exceedingly challenging. |
| JEL: | H24 I38 J13 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26476&r=all |
| By: | Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The future of employment and labour demand growth in the dawning era of intelligent robots and other new technologies is heavily debated. This paper argues that this discussion needs to be complemented by a second trend which has been unfolding in Europe for some time, namely the demographic decline. Various demographic scenarios for many EU countries point towards a significant decline in the working-age population in the near future which puts the functioning of labour markets at risk as labour shortages become increasingly more likely and subsequently threaten economic growth. In this context, this paper gives an overview of recent trends in the growth of real value added, labour productivity and employment as well as of demographic scenarios. Based on these trends, the hypothetical increase of labour productivity growth which would be required to keep real GDP growth at its current level, despite the projected reduction in the workforce, is calculated. Results show that the hypothetical labour productivity growth rate required is about one percentage point higher than the actual growth rate, suggesting that the current labour productivity growth rate in the EU needs to more than double. A complementary econometric analysis shows that even though robots exhibit a positive impact on labour productivity growth, this is not (yet) strong enough to close the gap between the recent and the hypothetical labour productivity trend growth rate which would be required. Disclaimer The paper has been written as part of the DG ECFIN FELLOWSHIP-INITIATIVE 2018-2019 The productivity challenge jobs and incomes in the dawning era of intelligent robots, Ref. 2018 ECFIN 005/B and can also be downloaded from the European Commission's website. |
| Keywords: | robotisation, ICT capital, productivity, demography |
| JEL: | J11 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:171&r=all |