|
on Labour Economics |
| By: | Hartung, Benjamin (University of Bonn); Jung, Philip (TU Dortmund); Kuhn, Moritz (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | A key question in labor market research is how the unemployment insurance system affects unemployment rates and labor market dynamics. We revisit this old question studying the German Hartz reforms. On average, lower separation rates explain 76% of declining unemployment after the reform, a fact unexplained by existing research focusing on job finding rates. The reduction in separation rates is heterogeneous, with long-term employed, high-wage workers being most affected. We causally link our empirical findings to the reduction in long-term unemployment benefits using a heterogeneous-agent labor market search model. Absent the reform, unemployment rates would be 50% higher today. |
| Keywords: | unemployment insurance, labor market flows, endogenous separations |
| JEL: | E24 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12001&r=all |
| By: | Pierre Cahuc (Département d'économie) |
| Abstract: | At the start of the XXI century, characterized by the rise of new forms of employment and of skills requirements, many countries need to adapt their labor market institutions to accompany technological changes and globalization. In this context, unemployment insurance is an essential tool to foster and smooth career paths. Its core components comprise unemployment benefits paid to full-time unemployed workers, monitoring, and counseling. But it is clear that they are not sufficient to cover all risks properly. To deal with this issue, part-time unemployment insurance, short-time work and wage insurance have been tried, at different scales, in several countries over the last decades. This paper surveys the evaluations of these schemes and draws lessons from their results for future research and for labor market institutions. |
| Keywords: | Part-time unemployment insurance; Wage insurance; Short-time work |
| JEL: | H5 J6 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/42uqs7948j8nfahfgmbdn90hje&r=all |
| By: | Lydon, Reamonn (Central Bank of Ireland); Matha, Thomas Y. (Banque centrale du Luxembourg); Millard, Stephen (Bank of England, Durham University Business School and Centre for Macroeconomics) |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level data from a large-scale European survey among 20 countries, we analyse the determinants of firms using short-time work (STW). We show that firms are more likely to use STW in case of negative demand shocks. We show that STW schemes are more likely to be used by firms with high degrees of firm-specific human capital, high firing costs, and operating in countries with stringent employment protection legislation and a high degree of downward nominal wage rigidity. STW use is higher in countries with formalised schemes and in countries where these schemes were extended in response to the recent crisis. On the wider economic impact of STW, we show that firms using the schemes are significantly less likely to lay off permanent workers in response to a negative shock, with no impact for temporary workers. Relating our STW take-up measure in the micro data to aggregate data on employment and output trends, we show that sectors with a high STW take-up exhibit significantly less cyclical variation in employment. |
| Keywords: | Firms, survey, crisis, short-time work, wages, recession. |
| JEL: | C25 E24 J63 J68 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:13/rt/18&r=all |
| By: | Thomas Baudin (IÉSEG School of Management); Robert Stelter (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research); ; |
| Abstract: | To assess the importance of the rural exodus in fostering the transition from stagnation to growth, we propose a unified model of growth and internal migrations. Using an original set of Swedish data, we identify the deep parameters of our model. We show that internal migration conditions had to be favorable enough to authorize an exodus out of the countryside in order to fuel the industrial development of cities. We then compare the respective contribution of shocks on internal migration costs, infant mortality and inequalities in agricultural productivity to the economic take-off and the demographic transition that occurred in Sweden. Negative shocks on labor mobility generate larger delays in the take-off to growth compared to mortality shocks equivalent to the Black Death. Deepening inequalities of productivity in the agricultural sector, like it has been done by enclosure movements, contributes to accelerate urbanization at the cost of depressed economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Demographic transition, Industrialization, Rural exodus, Mortality differentials, Fertility differentials. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O41 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e201715&r=all |
| By: | Jahn, Vera; Steinhardt, Max Friedrich |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes in how far immigration affects firm formation at the regional level. For this purpose, we exploit a placement policy in Germany in the 1990s for immigrants of German origin from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Our panel regressions suggest that immigration had a positive impact on regional firm formation. The most likely mechanisms driving this result are labor supply-side effects and positive implications of cultural diversity. Overall, our paper demonstrates that immigration induced changes in local labor supply can partially be absorbed by the creation of firms. |
| Keywords: | immigration,placement policy,economic impact,firms |
| JEL: | F22 L26 R11 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:787&r=all |
| By: | Pamela Jakiela (Center for Global Development; University of Maryland; BREAD; IZA); Owen Ozier (World Bank Development Research Group; BREAD; IZA) |
| Abstract: | Languages use different systems for classifying nouns. Gender languages assign many—sometimes all—nouns to distinct sex-based categories, masculine and feminine. We construct a new data set, documenting this property for more than four thousand languages which together account for more than 99 percent of the world’s population. At the cross-country level, we find a robust negative relationship between prevalence of gender languages and women’s labor force participation. We also show that traditional views of gender roles are more common in countries with more native speakers of gender languages. Our cross-country data also permit a novel permutation test, demonstrating that the patterns we find are robust to statistical correction for correlation in linguistic structure within language families. We also conduct within-country analysis in two regions where indigenous languages vary in terms of their gender structure. In four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and in India, we show that educational attainment and female labor force participation are lower among those whose native languages use grammatical gender. |
| Keywords: | grammatical gender, language, gender, linguistic determinism, labor force participation, educational attainment, gender gaps |
| JEL: | J16 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:500&r=all |
| By: | Thomas Baudin (IÉSEG School of Management); Koyel Sarkar (Center for Demographic Research, Université Catholique de Louvain); ; |
| Abstract: | In a developing setting like India, women have started their long way to emancipation both at the family and societal levels. In this context, we study what may be perceived as a key sign of emancipation regarding marriage and motherhood: childlessness. Using micro-level regressions, we show that the probability of a woman ending her reproductive life without children exhibits a U-shaped relationship with her educational attainment. This is indicative of the fact that poverty and sterility are not the sole determinants of childlessness, but that better economic opportunities and empowerment within couples also matter. This result is robust to the introduction of important control variables such as the development level of the state where women live, the husband’s education, age at marriage, religion, and caste. India seems to be joining a list of countries where adjustments to childlessness are much more than simple responses to boom-andbust poverty. |
| Keywords: | : Childlessness, education, poverty, sterility, development |
| JEL: | J11 O11 O40 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e201717&r=all |
| By: | Sara Signorelli (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In recent yearsWestern countries are expressing growing concerns about the regulation of migration flows and many are considering adopting some form of selective immigration policy. This paper analyzes the labor market effects of one of such reforms introduced in France in 2008 with the aim of encouraging the inflow of foreign workers with skills that are scarce among the local labor force. The analysis relies on administrative employer-employee data and it is based on a difference-in-differences approach. Results show that the reform increased the hiring of foreign workers in target occupations without causing any harm to native employment. As a result, the overall stock of labor grew in these jobs. Entry wages are lowered by 4% among natives and by 9% among foreigners, suggesting that these two groups may not be perfect substitutes, even when they are employed for the exact same task. Yet, the negative pressure on salaries seems to disappear after the first three years, as opposed to the positive impact on employment. The effects are stronger for the occupations with the most severe lack of native candidates and for those with an average salary largely above the minimum wage, indicating that the reform was successful in attracting candidates with rare skills and relatively high productivity. |
| Keywords: | Immigration,Employment,Wage,Occupations,France |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01983071&r=all |
| By: | Thomas Fackler; Yvonne Giesing; Nadzeya Laurentsyeva |
| Abstract: | Does the emigration of skilled individuals necessarily result in losses for source countries due to the brain drain? Combining industry-level patenting and migration data from 32 European countries, we show that emigration in fact positively contributes to innovation in source countries. We use changes in the labour mobility legislation within Europe as exogenous variation to establish causality. By analysing patent citation data, we further provide evidence that these positive effects are driven by knowledge flows that are triggered by emigrants. While skilled migrants are not inventing in their home country anymore, they contribute to cross-border knowledge and technology diffusion and thus help less advanced countries to catch up to the technology frontier. |
| Keywords: | migration, innovation, knowledge spillovers, patent citations, EU enlargement |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O33 O31 O52 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7420&r=all |
| By: | Morten Bennedsen; Elena Simintzi; Margarita Tsoutsoura; Daniel Wolfenzon |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of pay transparency on gender pay gap and firm outcomes. This paper exploits a 2006 legislation change in Denmark that requires firms to provide gender dis-aggregated wage statistics. Using detailed employee-employer administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the law reduces the gender pay gap, primarily by slowing the wage growth for male employees. The gender pay gap declines by approximately two percentage points, or a 7% reduction relative to the pre-legislation mean. In addition, the wage transparency mandate causes a reduction in firm productivity and in the overall wage bill, leaving firm profitability unchanged. |
| JEL: | G18 G28 J16 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25435&r=all |
| By: | Anna Gumpert; Henrike Steimer; Manfred Antoni |
| Abstract: | How do geographic frictions affect firm organization? We show theoretically and empirically that geographic frictions increase the use of middle managers in multi-establishment firms. In our model, we assume that the time of the CEO of a firm is a resource of limited supply that is shared among the headquarters and the establishments. Geographic frictions increase the costs of accessing the CEO. Hiring middle managers at an establishment substitutes for CEO time that is reallocated over all establishments. In consequence, geographic frictions between the headquarters and one establishment affect the organization of all establishments of a firm. Our model is consistent with novel facts about multi-establishment firm organization that we document using administrative data from Germany. We exploit the opening of high-speed train routes to show that not only the establishments directly affected by faster travel times but also the other establishments of the firm adjust their organization. Our findings imply that local conditions propagate across space through firm organization. |
| Keywords: | firm organization, multi-establishment firm, knowledge hierarchy, geography |
| JEL: | D21 D22 D24 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7435&r=all |
| By: | Clement Imbert; Marlon Seror; Yifan Zhang; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of rural-urban migration on urban production in China. We use longitudinal data on manufacturing firms between 2001 and 2006 and exploit exogenous variation in rural-urban migration due to agricultural price shocks. Following a migrant inflow, labor costs decline and employment expands. Labor productivity decreases sharply and remains low in the medium run. A quantitative framework suggests that destinations become too labor-abundant and migration mostly benefits low- productivity firms within locations. As migrants select into high-productivity destinations, migration however strongly contributes to the equalization of factor productivity across locations. |
| Keywords: | rural-urban migration, structural transformation, urban production |
| JEL: | D24 J23 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7440&r=all |
| By: | Laura D. Quinby; Gal Wettstein |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether pension cuts affecting current public employees encourage mid-career teachers and civil servants to separate from their employers. The analysis takes advantage of a 2005 reform to the Employees’ Retirement System of Rhode Island (ERSRI) that dramatically reduced the generosity of benefits for current workers. Importantly, the cuts applied only to ERSRI members who had not vested by June 30, 2005. Vested ERSRI members and municipal government employees in Rhode Island were unaffected. This sharp difference in benefit generosity permits a triple-differences research design in which non-vested ERSRI members are compared, before and after the reform, to vested members and to all members of the Municipal Employees’ Retirement System of Rhode Island. The results show that the pension cut caused a 2.4-percentage-point increase in the rate of separation, implying an elasticity of labor supply with respect to pension benefits of around 0.25. Rhode Island teachers were significantly less responsive to the benefit cut than other occupations, in line with an existing literature on teacher labor supply, suggesting that the results from that literature may not generalize to the broader workforce. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2019-03&r=all |
| By: | Bachmann, Ronald; Felder, Rahel; Tamm, Marcus |
| Abstract: | We use data from the adult cohort of the National Education Panel Study to analyse the changes in the employment histories of cohorts born after World War II and the role of atypical employment in this context. Younger cohorts are characterised by acquiring more education, by entering into employment at a higher age, and by experiencing atypical employment more often. The latter is associated with much higher employment of women for younger cohorts. A sequence analysis of employment trajectories illustrates the opportunities and risks of atypical employment: The proportion of individuals whose entry into the labour market is almost exclusively characterised by atypical employment rises significantly across the cohorts. Moreover, a substantial part of the increase in atypical employment is due to the increased participation of women, with part-time jobs or mini-jobs playing an important role in re-entering the labour market after career breaks. |
| Keywords: | atypical employment,regular employment,cohort differences,life cycle analysis,sequence analysis |
| JEL: | J21 J42 J81 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:786&r=all |
| By: | Cardullo, Gabriele (University of Genova); Conti, Maurizio (University of Genova); Sulis, Giovanni (University of Cagliari) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present a search and matching model in which firms invest in sunk capital equipment. By comparing two wage setting scenarios, we show that a two-tier bargaining scheme, where a fraction of the salary is negotiated at firm level, raises the amount of investment per worker in the economy compared to a one-tier bargaining scheme, in which earnings are entirely negotiated at sectoral level. The model's main result is consistent with the positive correlation between investment per worker and the presence of a two-tier bargaining agreement that we find in a representative sample of Italian firms. |
| Keywords: | unions, investment, hold-up, two-tier bargaining, control function |
| JEL: | J51 J64 E22 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12008&r=all |
| By: | Luca, Dara Lee (Mathematica Policy Research); Bloom, David E. (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the economic returns to parental health. To account for potential endogeneity between parental health and child outcomes, we leverage longitudinal microdata from Indonesia to estimate individual fixed effects models. Our results show that the economic returns to parental health are high. We show that maternal health not only significantly affects her children's health, but is also intrinsically linked to her spouse's labor market status and earnings. Paternal health appears to be more linked to child schooling outcomes, especially for girls. When both parents are in poor health, the negative effects on their children are compounded. Additionally, the consequences of poor parental health are enduring. Longer-run effects of poor parental health manifest in a lower likelihood of high school completion, fewer years of schooling, and poorer adult health. |
| Keywords: | parental health, spousal health, child health, education, family economics |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11987&r=all |
| By: | Simon Jäger; Benjamin Schoefer; Josef Zweimüller |
| Abstract: | We present a sharp test for the efficiency of job separations. First, we document a dramatic increase in the separation rate – 11.2ppt (28%) over five years – in response to a quasi-experimental extension of UI benefit duration for older workers. Second, after the abolition of the policy, the "job survivors" in the formerly treated group exhibit exactly the same separation behavior as the control group. Juxtaposed, these facts reject the "Coasean" prediction of efficient separations, whereby the UI extensions should have extracted marginal (low-surplus) jobs and thereby rendered the remaining (high-surplus) jobs more resilient after its abolition. Third, we show that a formal model of predicted efficient separations implies a piece-wise linear function of the actual control group separations beyond the missing mass of marginal matches. A structural estimation reveals point estimates of the share of efficient separations below 4%, with confidence intervals rejecting shares above 13%. Fourth, to characterize the marginal jobs in the data, we extend complier analysis to difference-in-difference settings such as ours. The UI-indiced separators stemmed from declining firms, blue-collar jobs, with a high share of sick older workers, and firms more likely to have works councils – while their wages were similar to program survivors. The evidence is consistent with a "non-Coasean" framework building on wage frictions preventing efficient bargaining, and with formal or informal institutional constraints on selective separations. |
| Keywords: | Efficient separations, unemployment insurance, job surplus, wage bargaining, complier analysis |
| JEL: | J63 J65 J30 C52 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:314&r=all |
| By: | Herr, Hansjörg; Ruoff, Bea |
| Abstract: | Labour market developments have Germany undergone two shocks: German reunification in the early 1990s, and the Hartz reforms in the early 2000s. They separated the German labour market into the traditional rather corporatist labour market segment, characterised by a high degree of coordination, and a new, less regulated labour market segment. The latter is characterised by low wages and precarious working conditions. A precariat living under conditions of high uncertainty developed. All these developments are mainly the result of legal changes in Germany - changes which, with respect to employment creation, were unneeded. |
| Keywords: | labour markets,Germany,Hartz reforms,German unification |
| JEL: | J50 J51 O11 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:1142019&r=all |
| By: | Ghirelli, Corinna (Banco de Espana); Havari, Enkelejda (European Commission – JRC); Santangelo, Giulia (European Commission – JRC); Scettri, Marta (Office of Statistics and Evaluation of the Umbria Region) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an evaluation of a training programme for graduates entitled "Work Experience for Graduates" (WELL - Work Experience Laureati and Laureate) that was recently implemented in Italy. The aim of the programme was to increase the career prospects of unemployed graduates in the region of Umbria. It consisted of two measures: (i) on-the-job training for unemployed graduates, and (ii) wage subsidies to firms and organisations for hiring the trainees at the end of the programme. We rely on administrative data and match- ing methods to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention in terms of the employability of participants. Results indicate that WELL participants are more likely to be employed and to sign an apprenticeship contract within the region. We also find substantial gender differences in employability and the type of contract obtained, with men having a higher probability of finding a job (permanent contract or apprenticeship). We show that this may be explained by different choices in terms of field of study, with males being more prone to enrolling in scientific areas and females in the humanities. |
| Keywords: | training; graduates; matching; propensity score; policy evaluation; Italy |
| JEL: | I0 J0 D04 J48 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:201814&r=all |
| By: | Christl, Michael |
| Abstract: | The Austrian Beveridge curve shifted in 2014, leading to ongoing academic discussions about the reasons behind this shift. While some have argued that the shift was caused by a supply shock due to labour market liberalization, others have stated that matching efficiency decreased. Using a new decomposition method, combined with detailed labour market flow data, we are the first to disentangle supply-side, demand-side and matching factors, which could potentially cause a shift in the Beveridge curve in Austria. We find empirical evidence to confirm that the increase in the unemployment rate in Austria after 2011 can indeed be attributed to a supplyside shock. But, contrary to other research, our analysis shows that the shift in the Beveridge curve after 2014 was mainly caused by a decrease in matching efficiency, indicating a rising mismatch problem in the Austrian labour market. |
| Keywords: | Beveridge curve,crisis,mismatch,unemployment,structural unemployment,vacancies |
| JEL: | J62 J63 E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:296&r=all |
| By: | Thomas Baudin (IÉSEG School of Management); David de la Croix (IRES, Université catholique de Louvain & CEPR, London); Paula E. Gobbi (ECARES, Université libre de Bruxelles & CEPR, London); |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an introduction to the analysis of childlessness, first by describing the stylized facts and the relevant literature, and then by proposing a theoretical framework. We show that both poverty-driven childlessness and opportunity-driven childlessness matter and are essential to a thorough understanding of childlessness as a socioeconomic phenomenon. |
| Keywords: | Childlessness, fertility, education, marriage, children, sterility, economic development, poverty-driven childlessness, opportunity-driven childlessness, female empowerment, childcare, Malthusian economy, educational homogamy, reproductive health, demographic economics, developed countries, developing countries, historical childlessness, quantity and quality of children, inequality |
| JEL: | J11 O11 O40 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e201716&r=all |
| By: | Reyer Gerlagh; Veronica Lupi; Marzio Galeotti |
| Abstract: | The historical increase in emissions is for one-fourth attributable to the growth of emissions per person, whereas three-fourths are due to population growth. This striking evidence is not represented in the majority of climate-economic studies, which mostly neglect the environmental consequences of individuals’ reproductive decisions. In this paper, we study the interactions between climate change and population dynamics. We develop an analytical model of endogenous fertility and embed it in a calibrated climate-economy model. Our results present family planning as an integral part of climate policies and quantify the costs of neglecting the interaction. |
| Keywords: | fertility, climate change, population, carbon tax, fertility tax, climate-economy models |
| JEL: | J11 J13 H23 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7421&r=all |
| By: | Chiara Mussida (DISCE, Università Cattolica); Raffaella Patimo (Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro.) |
| Abstract: | TPersistently low employment of women in some countries can still be attributed to a traditional perception of women’s role in society. According to observed data and prevailing social and cultural norms, women have been bearing the primary burdens of housework, childcare and other family responsibilities. The unequal share of these care responsibilities between women and men further worsens the disadvantages of women in balancing public and private life, with an impact on their employment and health outcomes. In this paper we investigate the role of family responsibilities in shaping employment and health outcomes by gender, in Italy and France before and after the economic downturn. We find results supporting the fact that gender differences in the share of responsibilities roles in the public and private sphere influence the employability and health perception of women. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Gender gap, Care responsibilities, Health |
| JEL: | C33 D13 I10 J13 J21 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie2:dises141&r=all |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the quantitative importance of collective agreements in explaining uctuations in Bulgarian labor markets. Following Maffezzoli (2001), we introduce a monopoly union in a real-business-cycle model with government sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016), and compare and contrast it to a model with indivisible labor and no unions as in Rogerson and Wright (1988). We find that the sequential bargaining between unions and firms produces an important internal propagation mechanism, which fits data much better that the alternative framework with indivisible labor. |
| Keywords: | business cycles,general equilibrium,labor unions,indivisible labor,involuntary unemployment |
| JEL: | E32 E24 J23 J51 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:191066&r=all |