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on Intellectual Property Rights |
| By: | Immaculada Martinez-Zarzoso; Ana Maria Santacreu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of cross-border patenting on the margins of international trade using disaggregated data on international patenting and trade flows. We develop a theoretical framework of trade and firms' patenting decisions that motivates our empirical analysis. The main results reveal that cross-border patenting has a larger effect on the extensive margin of trade compared to the intensive margin. This finding suggests that firms tend to seek patent protection in international markets prior to entering those markets with new products, rather than with their existing products. |
| Keywords: | cross-border patents; gravity model; margins of trade; trade agreements |
| JEL: | F63 O14 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98864 |
| By: | Talia Bar (University of Connecticut); Heshan Zhang (PNC Bank) |
| Abstract: | We examine gender differences in US patent outcomes -- forward citations, triadic grants (related patents in EU and Japan), and renewals. We find that differences in workplace explain a significant part of the gap. After accounting for technology, application years, examiners and patent assignees, we show that while on average, patent teams with at least one woman-inventor have slightly weaker outcomes, for solo-inventor patents there are no significant gender differences in any of the outcomes. But men-lead mixed gender teams have on average slightly weaker outcomes than men-only teams, even when we control for the identity of the first inventor. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2024-04 |
| By: | Sahana Simha; M. P. Ram Mohan |
| Abstract: | Trademark law is primarily viewed as a consumer protection law. Proprietary and consumer interests are not always balanced. This is especially evident in the doctrine of exhaustion of rights in trademarks, where the trademark owner loses control over the further distribution of their trademarked product once sold. Existing statutory exceptions to this doctrine allow the proprietor to take action against resellers only when the product has been impaired or changed. The exceptions do not account for harm or damage to the reputation and goodwill associated with a trademark as a ground to override exhaustion. This paper analyses legislative and judicial decisions regarding exceptions to exhaustion under Indian trademark law, with a comparative examination of rulings from the US and EU jurisdictions. We then highlight the theoretical differences between trademark and copyright law, exploring moral rights in copyright law and the anti-dilution theory of trademarks. In doing so, we examine the feasibility of expanding exceptions to the doctrine of exhaustion to include proprietary concerns, in addition to consumer and market considerations. |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14715 |
| By: | Park, Jaeyoung |
| Abstract: | The escalating global demand for Asian movies and TV shows indicates a shift away from a Western-centric focus, particularly the United States, with Korean intellectual properties playing a pivotal role. Since the late 1990s, Korean productions have established a regional network within East Asia and, with the advent of digital platforms, achieved a transnational reach. However, investments from global platforms like Netflix, while fostering Korean intellectual properties, often result in these platforms retaining complete content rights, limiting further utilization by local producers. Additionally, there are concerns that platform-driven production may diminish the innovativeness of content by standardizing storytelling and formats. Therefore, Korean content productions need to develop their own transnational network to fully leverage the benefits of transnationalization. Among transnationalization strategies, this paper focuses on transnational inbound innovation as a valid strategy, given that acquiring innovative IP is critical in the content business. To address this, the study proposes a decision model for Korean productions to source original intellectual properties from Asian countries using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Focusing on select Asian countries—Indonesia, Thailand, and India—known for significant Korean content consumption and collaboration experience, the study aims to measure the priorities of alternatives and criteria influencing this decision-making process. |
| Keywords: | Transnationalization, innovation management, inbound innovation, Korean content production, Asian original IP, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), multicriteria decision-making |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302479 |
| By: | Ghaffari Hadigheh, Alireza (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Sinjorgo, Lennart (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Sotirov, Renata (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:06c3099c-0eda-4ae5-9f79-72242a78810f |
| By: | Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal relationship between domestic investment and economic growth in Argentina over the period 1980-2022, utilizing cointegration analysis and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The empirical results indicate that domestic investment has no significant long-term effect on economic growth. However, economic growth has a positive long-term impact on domestic investment, suggesting that growth stimulates investment rather than the reverse. In the short term, a bidirectional relationship exists between domestic investment and economic growth. These findings provide important policy implications for fostering sustainable economic development in Argentina. |
| Keywords: | Domestic Investment, Economic Growth, Argentina, VECM. |
| JEL: | C32 E22 O40 O54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121799 |
| By: | Laorrojwong, Benyathip; Makarathat, Natchaya |
| Abstract: | The Open RAN model has recently been put to the forefront of debate on how the open networking technologies would benefit the telecom operator, vendors and tech sectors in terms of competition, freedom, and openness. The Open RAN has introduced an open interface which allows telecom operators to choose their own combinations of hardware and software. In other words, Open RAN might be replacing the traditional/old model, which offers bundle hardware and software, already integrated , in a monolithic architecture. The traditional 5G tech architect uses proprietary equipment to connect devices to the network. This means all parts (hardware and software) of 5G network are manufactured by the same company. While this architecture guarant ees compatibility and operability of the network, it also leads to the conduct of monopolies in the market as well as technology dependency. The new invention of Open RAN model, in contrast, supports the disaggregation of hardware and software. In the simple terms, the operating system will come from Company A, antennas and cells will come from Company B, and a microchip will be used from Company C. This type of network architecture is designed to reduce the risk of dependencies and disrupt the nature of 5G monopolistic market. The initial purpose of the Open RAN, in this sense, is aimed at developing 5G network technology by using open interfaces, allowing operators to be able to use equipment from different manufacture. From the economics perspective, Open RAN model promotes competition and innovations, avoids the formation of tech oligopolies, diversifies suppliers and mitigates risks, and importantly leads to a decoupling of bi-polarization of the U.S. and Chinese technology. |
| Keywords: | Open-RAN, Economics, Competition, Geopolitics, Bi-polarization, Conflicts, Technology policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302455 |
| By: | Pradeep Dubey; Siddhartha Sahi |
| Abstract: | Consider a noncooperative game at whose outcomes commodities accrue to players, which are both valued by them and susceptible to transfer between them. In this situation, outcome-contingent transfers of commodities form a natural schema for incentivizing cooperation, in the following sense. Transfers agreed upon by the players give rise to a new noncooperative game whose Nash Equilibria (NE) may engender a Pareto-improvement over some designated status quo NE of the original game. However, as in the folk theorem for repeated games, an embarrassingly large set of NE may be sustainable via transfers. The main source for this pathology is the possibility of “threats†, which can be understood as “off-shell†transfers, i.e. transfers at outcomes that are not actually being reached with positive probability at the NE under consideration. Our endeavor is to restore the discriminatory nature of NE by means of two simple ideas. We say that an NE of the post-transfers game is transparent if there are no off-shell transfers. This can also be viewed via the lens of “credibility†, of something being seen in order to be believed. The other condition is budget balance, i.e., at the NE, there should be no need for a net injection of commodities from the outside in order to sustain transfers. An NE is considered eligible by us if it satisfies these two conditions, in addition to engendering Pareto-improvement. If a social welfare function is specified, then one may seek to determine eligible NE that maximize welfare on the domain of feasible transfers. We carry out this analysis for three classical noncooperative games. These are the Centipede Game, Contest, and the Prisoners’ Dilemma; the last of which we discuss in some detail. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:24-03 |
| By: | El Weriemmi, Malek; Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This study aims to investigate the impact of CO2 emissions, domestic investment, and trade openness on economic growth in North African countries over the period 1998 to 2022. Utilizing a panel static gravity model, the results reveal that domestic investment exerts a negative influence on economic growth, while CO2 emissions and exports demonstrate a positive contribution. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that imports have an adverse, though statistically insignificant, effect on economic growth. The findings underscore the importance of fostering policies that promote exports and mitigate CO2 emissions, while carefully considering the potential negative implications of imports on the economic growth of North African countries. |
| Keywords: | CO2 Emissions, Domestic Investment, Trade Openness, Economic Growth, North African Countries, Panel Data, Gravity Model. |
| JEL: | C33 F43 O13 O55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122152 |
| By: | Liu, Sheng (School of Economics and Trade, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies); Feng, Haibo (School of Economics, Jinan University); Xu, Yongyi (School of Economics, Jinan University); Xu, Fei (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | Tax incentive policies are an important means for governments to encourage corporate innovation. The issue of policy composite fallacy exists under certain conditions, which has been overlooked by existing studies. Based on China's tax survey data from 2008 to 2016 and employing the method of constructing the marginal effective tax rate for enterprises, this paper empirically tests the effects of tax rate-based incentives, tax base-based incentives, and their combined policy effects. The following findings are obtained: tax base-based incentives consistently promote corporate innovation through the innovation risk-sharing mechanism. Whether tax rate-based incentives promote innovation depends on the extent to which the expectation of compensating for innovation risk loss through tax rate incentives is met. The combined policy effect of tax base- and tax rate-based incentives also depends on the level of government risk-sharing and the expectation of compensation for corporate innovation risk loss, with empirical results showing that the combination of the two policies impedes corporate innovation; compared with tax rate-based incentives and their combination, tax base-based incentives have a greater and more lasting impact in terms of lagged effects. Finally, the paper conducts a heterogeneity analysis on enterprises with different levels of innovation and different property rights. The conclusions of the article provide theoretical and practical bases for optimizing the combination of tax incentive policies and improving the quality of innovation. |
| Keywords: | Tax incentives; Risk sharing; Innovation |
| JEL: | H20 O10 O31 |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1027 |
| By: | Miller, Anne |
| Abstract: | Bounded cardinal utility theory (BCUT), built on the seminal work of Van Praag (1968), is based on three axioms. • The leaning-S-shaped utility function reflects the individual’s experiences of fulfilment of a need – deprivation (increasing marginal utility (MU)), subsistence (a point of inflection), sufficiency (diminishing MU), and either satiation at finite consumption with the possibility of surfeit, or satiation at infinite consumption, and with an intensity-of-need parameter. • Bounded cardinal utility, (between 0 and 1), enables interpersonal welfare comparisons to be made and partially solves the non-measurability problem of utility (Van Praag, 1968). • A separability rule states that the utilities of commodities fulfilling the same need are weakly separable (multiplicative) and those of commodities fulfilling two separate needs are strongly separable (additive). Walasek et al (2024) point out that ‘there was never a clear psychological theory about the causes of loss aversion’. BCUT identifies (variable) MU as ‘the psychological value of losses compared to equivalent gains’ associated with endowments of unearned consumption. A leaning-S-shaped utility function represents increasing ‘gain appeal’ when the individual’s endowments are less than subsistence, and the theory predicts that (decreasing) loss aversion occurs only if the individual experiences sufficiency and thus is not deprived of consumption. The steepness parameter, lambda, could be measured by subsistence / intensity-of-need, for choices within one need, or by an individual’s relative-intensities-of-need parameters (ratio of intensities-of-need parameters), for choices involving two needs. This note suggests that BCUT might provide a clearer psychological basis for the analysis of loss aversion than current practice. |
| Keywords: | loss aversion, prospect theory, valuation, leaning-S-shaped utility, diminishing marginal utility |
| JEL: | D11 D81 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121997 |
| By: | Jana, Arjun; Goli, Srinivas |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts * 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted ‘U-shape’ relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961-2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Population Growth; Agricultural Land; Land-Population Relationship; Dynamic Panel Data Analysis; Spatial Econometrics; Malthusian-Boserupian Debate |
| JEL: | J11 Q15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121803 |
| By: | Tehrani, Radin; Ramezanian, Hasan |
| Abstract: | Consumer purchases are largely shaped by their assessment of a product's benefits, drawbacks, and emotional aspects. Psychological and marketing research suggests that emotions influence customers at various points in the buying process. This research seeks to identify the factors that may affect consumer emotions when buying luxury cosmetics. To examine the different facets of customer emotions, a qualitative study was carried out through in-depth semi-structured interviews with 23 users of high-end cosmetics and health products in Telegram groups. This study revealed various emotional dimensions and identified factors that trigger emotions in the target market. The subsequent phase involved determining the variables that influence customer emotions, based on collective agreement. This phase included a panel of 15 experts in marketing, psychology, luxury cosmetics import businesses on digital platforms, and managers of online luxury cosmetics and hygiene groups. Using a three-step consensus approach, the experts identified and evaluated 36 factors influencing customer emotions based on their importance and perceived impact. These factors were then grouped into three categories: personal variables, group and product variables, and contextual variables. |
| Date: | 2024–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pwv2r |
| By: | Vladimir A. Karamychev (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | Aftermarket social welfare is largely determined by a procurement auction design. Auctions select firms for operating aftermarkets, and auctions may also impose restrictions on aftermarket prices the winner can charge. This paper compares aftermarket social welfare generated by first-price and second-price procurement auctions. It reveals that the social welfare ranking depends on the monotonicity properties of the augmented demand elasticity, defined as a product of the demand elasticity and the firm’s relative markup. When the augmented elasticity is price independent, first-price and second-price procurement auctions are welfare-equivalent. When it increases (or decreases) with price, first-price (or second-price) auctions are welfare-superior. |
| Keywords: | Aftermarket, Procurement auctions, Social Welfare, Monopoly |
| JEL: | D44 H57 L12 |
| Date: | 2023–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230081 |
| By: | Claude DIEBOLT; Magali Jaoul-Grammare |
| Abstract: | School choice factors play a different role according to gender. According to the literature, women have “adaptative exceptations” whereas men have so called “static exceptations”. Men and women adopt also different attitudes to expected payoffs, to risk or towards their level of aspiration. Finally, women generally associate their career plans with their life plans, which influences their choice of studies. But, what about social prestige, i.e. does the prestige of profession play an identical role in the demand for education among men and women? More specifically and over the long term, is the phenomenon of substitutability between prestigious career paths equally true for men and women? Finally, does the medical sphere regulate the male and female education systems equally? The ambition of this contribution is to contribute to the discussion using an unpublished historical dataset for France in the long 20th century. |
| Keywords: | Study choice, Gender, Prestige of professions, France. |
| JEL: | I21 J24 N34 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-37 |
| By: | Shurong Lin; Eric Kolaczyk |
| Abstract: | In a data-driven world, two prominent research problems are record linkage and data privacy, among others. Record linkage is essential for improving decision-making by integrating information of the same entities from different sources. On the other hand, data privacy research seeks to balance the need to extract accurate insights from data with the imperative to protect the privacy of the entities involved. Inevitably, data privacy issues arise in the context of record linkage. This article identifies two complementary aspects at the intersection of these two fields: (1) how to ensure privacy during record linkage and (2) how to mitigate privacy risks when releasing the analysis results after record linkage. We specifically discuss privacy-preserving record linkage, differentially private regression, and related topics. |
| JEL: | C0 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32940 |
| By: | Ardila Brenøe, Anne (Department of Economics, University of Zurich); Eyibak, Zeynep (Department of Economics, University of Zurich); Heursen, Lea (Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin,); Ranehill, Eva (Department of Economics, Lund University); Weber, Roberto A. (Department of Economics, University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | Economic research on gender gaps in preferences and economic outcomes has focused on variation with respect to sex —a binary classification as either a “man” or “woman.” We validate a novel and simple measure of self-reported continuous gender identity (CGI) and explore whether gender identity correlates with variation in economic decisions and outcomes beyond the relationship with binary sex. We use four datasets (N=8, 073) measuring various dimensions of economic preferences and educational and labor market outcomes for which prior research has documented gaps between men and women. Our analysis rejects the null hypothesis that CGI has no relationship with behaviors and preferences beyond the relationship with binary sex, particularly for men, and suggests that incorporating self-reported measures of gender identity may have value for understanding gender gaps and for targeting policy. However, when considering specific domains, the relationships vary in statistical significance and are often small. |
| Keywords: | Gender identity; non-binary gender; economic preferences; economic outcomes |
| JEL: | C91 J16 J20 |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2024_006 |
| By: | Martin C. Arnold; Thilo Reinschl\"ussel |
| Abstract: | We propose sieve wild bootstrap analogues to the adaptive Lasso solution path unit root tests of Arnold and Reinschl\"ussel (2024) arXiv:2404.06205 to improve finite sample properties and extend their applicability to a generalised framework, allowing for non-stationary volatility. Numerical evidence shows the bootstrap to improve the tests' precision for error processes that promote spurious rejections of the unit root null, depending on the detrending procedure. The bootstrap mitigates finite-sample size distortions and restores asymptotically valid inference when the data features time-varying unconditional variance. We apply the bootstrap tests to real residential property prices of the top six Eurozone economies and find evidence of stationarity to be period-specific, supporting the conjecture that exuberance in the housing market characterises the development of Euro-era residential property prices in the recent past. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07859 |
| By: | Paliński, Michał (University of Warsaw); Aşık, Gunes A. (TOBB University of Economy and Technology); Gajderowicz, Tomasz (University of Warsaw); Jakubowski, Maciej (University of Warsaw); Nas Özen, Efşan (World Bank); Raju, Dhushyanth (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study expands the inventory of green job titles by incorporating a global perspective and using contemporary sources. It leverages natural language processing, specifically a retrieval-augmented generation model, to identify green job titles. The process began with a search of academic literature published after 2008 using the official APIs of Scopus and Web of Science. The search yielded 1, 067 articles, from which 695 unique potential green job titles were identified. The retrieval-augmented generation model used the advanced text analysis capabilities of Generative Pre-trained Transformer 4, providing a reproducible method to categorize jobs within various green economy sectors. The research clustered these job titles into 25 distinct sectors. This categorization aligns closely with established frameworks, such as the U.S. Department of Labor's Occupational Information Network, and suggests potential new categories like green human resources. The findings demonstrate the efficacy of advanced natural language processing models in identifying emerging green job roles, contributing significantly to the ongoing discourse on the green economy transition. |
| Keywords: | AI, text mining, occupational classification, green jobs, green economy |
| JEL: | J23 Q52 O14 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17286 |
| By: | Weißmann, Markus |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examined reasons for ethnic differences in parental support at the transition to apprenticeship training in Germany and their consequences for the likelihood of finding a training position and the likelihood of premature training termination. We extended previous research by focusing on three different types of parental support: help with writing applications, information about open training positions, and efforts towards getting their children a position. Using longitudinal data from Starting Cohort 4 (SC4) of the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS), we show that part of ethnic differences in these types of support can be explained by measures of ethnicity-related background characteristics. Moreover, the relations of receiving-country-specific resources to parental support propensities seem to be domain specific. Furthermore, we find that only minority trainees benefit from writing support in terms of finding training and training success. In contrast, if parents made efforts to get their children a position, both minority and majority school-leavers are less likely to start training and, in the case of majority trainees, to finish training successfully. These are important findings as they give new insights into the reasons for ethnic disadvantages in parental support during the transition to apprenticeships and into the relation of different types of parental support to the training search success and premature termination risks. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:apf2m |
| By: | Kevin L. Kliesen |
| Abstract: | At their September 2024 meeting, the FOMC began reducing the federal funds target rate and indicating the likelihood of additional reductions by the end of the year and into 2025. The FOMC took this action because of favorable inflation trends and some developing weakness in labor markets. A similar dynamic was at work from 1994 to early 1996. During this period, the FOMC undertook, first, a pre-emptive tightening in policy to combat emerging price pressures and then, second, a pre-emptive easing of monetary policy to counter the expectations of slower real GDP growth or outright recession. One key difference between the two episodes was the marked acceleration in inflation rate in 2021-2022 compared to 1994-95. Nevertheless, the end result of the 1994-96 episode was that the US economy avoided a recession and inflation by the end of 1997 was effectively at a level that is now deemed price stability. The purpose of this article is to outline the key arguments that Chairman Greenspan and the other FOMC participants deployed during the 1995-96 pre-emptive easing episode. |
| Keywords: | Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); monetary policy; macroeconomy; inflation; recession |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 N1 |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98865 |
| By: | Dax Enshan Koh; Kaavya Kumar; Siong Thye Goh |
| Abstract: | The volunteer's dilemma is a well-known game in game theory that models the conflict players face when deciding whether to volunteer for a collective benefit, knowing that volunteering incurs a personal cost. In this work, we introduce a quantum variant of the classical volunteer's dilemma, generalizing it by allowing players to utilize quantum strategies. Employing the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein quantization framework, we analyze a multiplayer quantum volunteer's dilemma scenario with an arbitrary number of players, where the cost of volunteering is shared equally among the volunteers. We derive analytical expressions for the players' expected payoffs and demonstrate the quantum game's advantage over the classical game. In particular, we prove that the quantum volunteer's dilemma possesses symmetric Nash equilibria with larger expected payoffs compared to the unique symmetric Nash equilibrium of the classical game, wherein players use mixed strategies. Furthermore, we show that the quantum Nash equilibria we identify are Pareto optimal. Our findings reveal distinct dynamics in volunteer's dilemma scenarios when players adhere to quantum rules, underscoring a strategic advantage of decision-making in quantum settings. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.05708 |
| By: | Corinth, Kevin (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research); O’Rourke, Thomas (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research); Winship, Scott (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | There have been several attempts to measure social capital—the value inhering in relationships—at an aggregate level, but researchers lack comprehensive individual-level social capital measures. Using a combination of direct linkage and imputation across several nationally representative datasets, we produce a comprehensive measure of social capital at the individual level. We validate our measure by aggregating it to the state level, finding strong correlations with existing state-level social capital measures. We document substantial social capital disparities between white Americans, on the one hand, and black and Hispanic Americans, on the other, as well as a strong educational gradient, which is comparatively weaker for Hispanics. We also provide new evidence on the relationship between income and social capital, using a comprehensive measure of income. We find that social capital increases with income but at a decreasing rate. The source of income matters, as an extra $10, 000 in market income is associated with a 0.23 standard deviation increase in social capital for those with the lowest levels of market income, while an extra $10, 000 in government transfer income is associated with a 0.08 standard deviation decrease. |
| Keywords: | social capital, comprehensive income, inequality |
| JEL: | Z13 J12 D31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17257 |
| By: | Maximilian Fuchs; Johannes Stroebel; Julian Terstegge |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of carbon price uncertainty on firms' decisions to decarbonize their operations. We first use information on the pricing of options on emission allowances in the European Emissions Trading System to create the Carbon VIX, a market-based high-frequency measure of carbon price uncertainty. Carbon price uncertainty is high, varies substantially over time, and experiences persistent shocks around major climate policy events. To explore the effects of carbon price uncertainty on expected aggregate decarbonization investments, we analyze its effect on the stock returns of firms that help other businesses decarbonize. To identify these "carbon solution providers, " we extract common types of decarbonization investments from a large survey of firms, and then identify companies that offer the associated goods and services. We find that the stock returns of these carbon solution providers vary positively with carbon prices, but negatively with carbon price uncertainty. The effect of increases in carbon price uncertainty on our proxy for expected decarbonization investments is economically large and of similar magnitude as the effect of declines in carbon prices. These findings support predictions from real options theory that firms may delay investments in decarbonization when faced with uncertainty about the future costs of emissions. |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32937 |
| By: | Magne Mogstad; Alexander Torgovitsky |
| Abstract: | This chapter synthesizes and critically reviews the modern instrumental variables (IV) literature that allows for unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects (UHTE). We start by discussing why UHTE is often an essential aspect of IV applications in economics and we explain the conceptual challenges raised by allowing for it. Then we review and survey two general strategies for incorporating UHTE. The first strategy is to continue to use linear IV estimators designed for classical constant (homogeneous) treatment effect models, acknowledge their likely misspecification, and attempt to reverse engineer an attractive interpretation in the presence of UHTE. This strategy commonly leads to interpretations of linear IV that involve local average treatment effects (LATEs). We review the various ways in which the use and justification of LATE interpretations have expanded and contracted since their introduction in the early 1990s. The second strategy is to forward engineer new estimators that explicitly allow for UHTE. This strategy has its roots in the Gronau-Heckman selection model of the 1970s, ideas from which have been revitalized through marginal treatment effects (MTE) analysis. We discuss implementation of MTE methods and draw connections with related control function and bounding methods that are scattered throughout the econometric and causal inference literature. |
| JEL: | C26 C36 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32927 |
| By: | Gulener, Kaan |
| Abstract: | This study examines the complex relationship between unemployment and inflation in Turkey over a 64-year period, from 1960 to 2023. Utilizing correlation analysis and simple linear regression, we investigate the long-term connection between these two key macroeconomic indicators. Our findings reveal a moderate positive correlation between unemployment and inflation, challenging the traditional inverse relationship proposed by the Phillips Curve. This unexpected result suggests that, in Turkey's economic context, periods of higher unemployment have generally coincided with higher inflation rates. The paper provides a comprehensive review of relevant literature, analyzing the historical data within the framework of Turkey's evolving economic landscape. Our research contributes to the ongoing debate on the validity of the Phillips Curve in emerging economies and offers insights into the unique economic dynamics of Turkey. The study's results highlight the need for tailored economic models and policies that account for Turkey's specific economic conditions. Furthermore, our analysis reveals patterns of economic stability and turbulence throughout the studied period, providing a valuable historical perspective on Turkey's economic development. These findings have significant implications for policymakers navigating the complex interplay between unemployment and inflation in Turkey and potentially in other emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Unemployment; Phillips Curve; Turkish Economy |
| JEL: | E31 J60 |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121932 |
| By: | Luis Ayala (UNED); Olga Canto (Universidad de Alcala); Rosa Martinez (UNED); Carolina Navarro (UNED); Marina Romaguera-de-la-Cruz (UNED) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to propose a set of dimensions and indicators to measure the incidence and trends of unmet social needs related to well-being and aggregate them into a composite index. We contribute to the current literature on the measurement of social needs through broader and more systematic indicators based on the principles of access, quality, and equity. Using different microdata sources, we take a selected sample of European countries that are representative of different welfare regimes to illustrate the possibilities of this proposal. Our results are not very sensitive to the use of different weighting schemes or aggregation methods and show that the degree of unmet needs is related to the country's type of welfare regime. |
| Keywords: | unmet social needs, composite index, Europe, welfare regimes |
| JEL: | I31 I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2024-677 |
| By: | Helm, Carsten; Neugart, Michael |
| Abstract: | With ideological parties being better informed about the state of the world than voters, the true motivation of policy proposals is hard to judge for the electorate. However, if reform proposals have to be agreed upon by government members with heterogeneous policy preferences, it may become possible for the government to signal to the voters its private information about the necessity of reforms. This provides a rationale why coalition governments may find it easier to implement reforms than single-party governments, why oversized coalitions are formed, and why governments sometimes have cabinet members from opposing parties. |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149718 |
| By: | Jacopo Gambato; Bernhard Ganglmair; Julia K. Krämer |
| Abstract: | This chapter explores the interaction between the enforcement of and compliance with difficult-to-enforce rules in the context of data regulation. We focus on the effect of the introduction of the GDPR and its transparency principle on the readability of privacy policies for a large sample of German firms. Germany has a system of state-level data protection authorities. These data regulators enforce the same rules but face diverse funding situations, allowing for an ideal setting to study the role of a regulator's capacity in firms' compliance decisions. We find that while, on average, the GDPR lead to less readable policies, firms active in industries that have in the past received more regulatory scrutiny and those active in jurisdictions of better-funded data regulators exhibit a stronger compliance with the GDPR's readability requirement. These results exemplify a more general interaction between regulators' enforcement activity and firms' regulatory compliance. |
| JEL: | D22 K20 L51 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32913 |
| By: | Laurent, Monique (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Polak, Sven C. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Vargas, Luis (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:f5737473-6fb4-4af5-b848-885bb5a567cc |
| By: | Nasser Bouchareb (UFAS1 - Université Ferhat-Abbas Sétif 1 [Sétif]) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how Artificial Intelligence (AI) can improve Hotel PropertyManagement Systems (PMS) in the hospitality industry. It traces the evolution of PMS from manual to modern AI-infused counterparts, demonstrating how AI improves effectiveness and guest satisfaction. AI-driven PMS significantly improve efficiency in operations, making hotels more competitive in a dynamic landscape, by focusing on dynamic pricing strategies, real-time brand monitoring, and streamlined customer experiences. The paper highlights the practical significance of AI in the hospitality industry, promoting to a better understanding of technology's role in providing customized services and operational excellence, ultimately improving the quality of travel experiences. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence (AI) Channel manager Hospitality industry Property Management Systems (PMS) Revenue Management JEL Classification Codes: C88 L83 O32, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Channel manager, Hospitality industry, Property Management Systems (PMS), Revenue Management JEL Classification Codes: C88, L83, O32 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680595 |
| By: | Taylor, Linnet; de Souza, Siddharth P. |
| Abstract: | Over centuries, globalisation has led to the adoption of norms as a strategy for governing actions that have implications beyond the national level. This paper explores the potential of international norm-making for scaling up the governance of digital technologies and infrastructures, which have trans- and supra-national effects but are currently only governed within national jurisdictions. We chart the international neoliberal consensus currently being formalised, which affirms that data is primarly an economic commodity and must be treated according to free-market principles. We argue that this is inadequate because it cannot address interests beyond the commercial, namely data’s connections to bodies, land, community and labour. We then explore the history of norm-making and offer two assertions: first, that a norm-making lens can frame challenges to the primacy of market logics in law and governance, and second, that the conceptual exclusion of civil society actors as norm-makers is an obstacle to the recognition of counter-power in data governance. We therefore outline the features of existing norm-making work by civil-society movements with regard to data and its uses (including AI). Naming this as norm-making – in the form of the norm ‘nothing about us without us’ – answers the urgent need to foreground civil society actors’ agency in relation to the international governance of data. The main function of this norm is to place consent, or refusal, squarely in the gift of those groups represented (rather than identified) in the data, and to channel negotiation and permission through structures of democratic representation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a2utr |
| By: | Jens-Uwe Franck; Martin Peitz |
| Abstract: | This paper explains the novelties for sector inquiries as a result of the 11th amendment to the German Competition Act. The Bundeskartellamt is now authorized to impose measures ranging from behavioural requirements to the unbundling of a company in order to remedy identified competition problems. The new regulatory instrument supplements antitrust law in an appropriate manner. |
| Keywords: | Competition law, sector inquiry, market investigation, New Competition Tool, Bundeskartellamt, divestiture |
| JEL: | K2 L41 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_598 |
| By: | Jonathan Lafky; Robin Ng |
| Abstract: | We examine how product ratings are interpreted in the presence of heterogeneous preferences among both raters and consumers. Raters with altruistic motives should rate for the benefit of future consumers, however an ambiguity arises when preferences are heterogeneous. Multiple equilibria exist in which ratings may reflect the preferences of raters or the preferences of future consumers. In an online experiment, we examine how ratings are selected by raters and interpreted by consumers, and how information about rater preferences or product attributes can influence equilibrium selection. We show how both raters and consumers update their evaluation of what a rating represents in each environment, doing so in similar ways. |
| Keywords: | Ratings and Reviews, Altruism |
| JEL: | C91 D64 D83 L86 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_594 |
| By: | Dardati, Evangelina; Laurent, Thibault; Margaretic, Paula; Thomas-Agnan, Christine |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive dataset of bilateral migration flows and employing the Palmer index as a proxy for climate change, we demonstrate that conflict acts as an amplifying mechanism for climate-induced migration. Our results show that, as drought conditions worsen, middle- and high-income countries experiencing conflict are more inclined to have higher rates of international out-migration. In particular, we find that one standard deviation contraction in the Palmer index, indicating drier conditions, is associated with a 12% increase in out-migration flows from middle/high-income countries experiencing conflict. We also explore spatial autocorrelation and observe positive and significant origin-and destination-spatial dependence effects. Our findings contribute to understanding the intricate dynamics of climate change, conflict, and international migration while offering insights into migration patterns across countries. |
| Keywords: | Migration flows, climate change, conflict, droughts |
| JEL: | C31 F22 Q34 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129726 |
| By: | Francisco Blasques (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Janneke van Brummelen (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Paolo Gorgi (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Siem Jan Koopman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | The equivalence of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and the trend-cycle decomposition is well established. In this paper we argue that this equivalence is almost immediate when a Gaussian score-driven location model is considered. We also provide a natural extension towards heavy-tailed distributions for the disturbances which lead to a robust version of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. |
| Keywords: | trend and cycle, filtering, autoregressive integrated moving average model, score-driven model, heavy-tailed distributions |
| JEL: | C22 E32 |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240003 |
| By: | Yu Zhang; Claudio Tessone |
| Abstract: | When analyzing Bitcoin users' balance distribution, we observed that it follows a log-normal pattern. Drawing parallels from the successful application of Gibrat's law of proportional growth in explaining city size and word frequency distributions, we tested whether the same principle could account for the log-normal distribution in Bitcoin balances. However, our calculations revealed that the exponent parameters in both the drift and variance terms deviate slightly from one. This suggests that Gibrat's proportional growth rule alone does not fully explain the log-normal distribution observed in Bitcoin users' balances. During our exploration, we discovered an intriguing phenomenon: Bitcoin users tend to fall into two distinct categories based on their behavior, which we refer to as ``poor" and ``wealthy" users. Poor users, who initially purchase only a small amount of Bitcoin, tend to buy more bitcoins first and then sell out all their holdings gradually over time. The certainty of selling all their coins is higher and higher with time. In contrast, wealthy users, who acquire a large amount of Bitcoin from the start, tend to sell off their holdings over time. The speed at which they sell their bitcoins is lower and lower over time and they will hold at least a small part of their initial holdings at last. Interestingly, the wealthier the user, the larger the proportion of their balance and the higher the certainty they tend to sell. This research provided an interesting perspective to explore bitcoin users' behaviors which may apply to other finance markets. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.10407 |
| By: | Brian Pustilnik |
| Abstract: | The welfare effects of trade policy are shaped by the outcomes of imports reallocation and price changes. In this paper, I show that these outcomes crucially depend on whether importing firms are matched with multinational suppliers or with single-country suppliers. I study an antidumping duty imposed by Colombia on the imports of Chinese truck tires. I observe the full network of Colombian importers and their foreign suppliers. More importantly, plant location data shows that a few suppliers engage in multinational production, while most suppliers produce in only one country. Due to the policy, approximately 75% of Chinese tire imports were replaced with those from other origins, predominantly involving multinational suppliers in a diverse array of interactions. I estimate a quantitative trade framework to match the reallocation and price changes in the data. The model isolates three distinct channels of reallocation, influenced by connections with multinational suppliers and other complex market dynamics. This nuanced approach reveals that traditional reduced-form strategies to quantify reallocation may overlook these channels, potentially skewing welfare effect predictions of tariff -and similar- shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1009 |
| By: | Martin Peitz; Anton Sobolev |
| Abstract: | A seller can offer an experience good directly to consumers and indirectly through an intermediary. When selling indirectly, the intermediary provides recommendations based on the consumer’s match value and the prices at which the product is sold. The intermediary faces the trade-off between extracting rents from consumers who strongly care about the match value versus providing less informative recommendations but also serving consumers who do not. We analyze the allocative and welfare effects of prohibiting price parity clauses and/or regulating the intermediary’s recommender system. Prohibiting price parity clauses is always welfare decreasing in our model. |
| Keywords: | intermediation, digital platforms, price parity, recommender system, MFN clause, e-commerce |
| JEL: | L12 L15 D21 D42 M37 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_595 |
| By: | D’Annunzio, Anna; Russo, Antonio |
| Abstract: | We study transaction fees applied by marketplace platforms where sellers (e.g., app developers) adopt freemium pricing. An ad valorem transaction fee reduces quality distortions introduced by the price-discriminating seller, thereby increasing consumer surplus. Moreover, a small fee increases welfare, implying that the agency model may be socially preferable to integration between platform and seller. However, the platform may set the equilibrium fee above the socially optimal level. Providing devices needed to access the marketplace (e.g., phones) induces the platform to raise the fee, whereas providing a product that competes with the seller induces a lower fee. |
| JEL: | D4 D21 L11 H22 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129704 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Interim measures are enforcement tools available to competition authorities to prevent harm to competition that may occur before a final decision on the existence of an infringement. Most often these decisions are related to an ongoing business practice that may potentially constitute an abuse of dominance infringement, when a dominant market player illegally engages in practices limiting competition. In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries, most competition authorities dispose of interim measures in their legal frameworks and many have used them in past years (e.g. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Paraguay and Peru). This paper provides an overview of the state of play of interim measures in the region covering legal frameworks, recent enforcement experiences, as well as challenges and particularities of LAC countries. The paper highlights that interim measures represent a powerful tool for competition authorities and should be carefully used to mitigate enforcement errors and related reputation risks. |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaac:312-en |
| By: | Peilun He; Gareth W. Peters; Nino Kordzakhiac; Pavel V. Shevchenko |
| Abstract: | The Nelson-Siegel model is widely used in fixed income markets to produce yield curve dynamics. The multiple time-dependent parameter model conveniently addresses the level, slope, and curvature dynamics of the yield curves. In this study, we present a novel state-space functional regression model that incorporates a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model and functional regression formulations applied to multi-economy setting. This framework offers distinct advantages in explaining the relative spreads in yields between a reference economy and a response economy. To address the inherent challenges of model calibration, a kernel principal component analysis is employed to transform the representation of functional regression into a finite-dimensional, tractable estimation problem. A comprehensive empirical analysis is conducted to assess the efficacy of the functional regression approach, including an in-sample performance comparison with the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. We conducted the stress testing analysis of yield curves term-structure within a dual economy framework. The bond ladder portfolio was examined through a case study focused on spread modelling using historical data for US Treasury and UK bonds. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00348 |
| By: | Di Wu |
| Abstract: | The year 2024 witnessed a major development in the cryptocurrency industry with the long-awaited approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This innovation provides investors with a new, regulated path to gain exposure to Bitcoin through a familiar investment vehicle (Kumar et al., 2024). However, unlike traditional ETFs that directly hold underlying assets, Bitcoin ETFs rely on a creation and redemption process managed by authorized participants (APs). This unique structure introduces distinct characteristics in terms of premium/discount behavior compared to traditional ETFs. This paper investigates the premium and discount patterns observed in Bitcoin ETFs during first four-month period (January 11th, 2024, to May 17th, 2024). Our analysis reveals that these patterns differ significantly from those observed in traditional index ETFs, potentially exposing investors to additional risk factors. By identifying and analyzing these risk factors associated with Bitcoin ETF premiums/discounts, this paper aims to achieve two key objectives: Enhance market understanding: Equip and market and investors with a deeper comprehension of the unique liquidity risks inherent in Bitcoin ETFs. Provide a clearer risk management frameworks: Offer a clearer perspective on the risk-return profile of digital asset ETFs, specifically focusing on Bitcoin ETFs. Through a thorough analysis of premium/discount behavior and the underlying factors contributing to it, this paper strives to contribute valuable insights for investors navigating the evolving landscape of digital asset investments |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00270 |
| By: | Bukvić, Rajko |
| Abstract: | This article deals with the matter of determining the level of monopolization in the insurance sector of Central Serbia during the period 2011–2022. The basis of the research were data on the total insurance premium of insurance companies, for which we calculated the market concentration coefficient and the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI), as the most popular and most commonly used measures of concentration. Their values show a (relatively) high level of concentration, but without clear tendencies in its movement, and with minimal decline overall. Based on the equivalent number, as the reciprocal (inverse) value of the HHI coefficient, an index called the monopoly market ratio or boundary index of market monopolization was proposed, showing the degree to which the market is monopolized. The values of this index during the observed period range from around 75 to 60, with a clear downward tendency, significantly more intense than the minimal decline in the concentration coefficient values. This indicates that the insurance market in Serbia is reducing the influence of monopolistic (and oligopolistic) structures during the given period and is becoming increasingly competitive, despite the decrease in the number of insurance companies in the first half of the observed period and their unaltered number since 2018. |
| Keywords: | monopolization, concentration, competition, insurance, Serbia, indicators, market shares, number of companies, equivalent number |
| JEL: | C38 D43 G22 L11 L84 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122020 |
| By: | Owens, Jeffrey; Wamuyu, Ruth |
| Abstract: | The international tax framework has undergone several changes that present constraints to the use of tax incentives. This Perspective highlights these constraints and explores the potential opportunities, beyond the corporate tax realm, available to countries to attract foreign direct investment. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:302797 |
| By: | Cruces, Guillermo (CEDLAS-UNLP); Tortarolo, Dario (World Bank); Vazquez-Bare, Gonzalo (UC Santa Barbara) |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework to analyze partial population experiments, a generalization of the cluster experimental design where clusters are assigned to different treatment intensities. Our framework allows for heterogeneity in cluster sizes and outcome distributions. We study the large-sample behavior of OLS estimators and cluster-robust variance estimators and show that (i) ignoring cluster heterogeneity may result in severely underpowered experiments and (ii) the cluster-robust variance estimator may be upward-biased when clusters are heterogeneous. We derive formulas for power, minimum detectable effects, and optimal cluster assignment probabilities. All our results apply to cluster experiments, a particular case of our framework. We set up a potential outcomes framework to interpret the OLS estimands as causal effects. We implement our methods in a large-scale experiment to estimate the direct and spillover effects of a communication campaign on property tax compliance. We find an increase in tax compliance among individuals directly targeted with our mailing, as well as compliance spillovers on untreated individuals in clusters with a high proportion of treated taxpayers. |
| Keywords: | partial population experiments, spillovers, randomized controlled trials, cluster experiments, two-stage designs, property tax, tax compliance |
| JEL: | C01 C93 H71 H71 H26 H26 H21 H21 O23 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17256 |
| By: | Wataru ISHIDA; Yusuke IWASE; Taro KUMANO |
| Abstract: | Matching markets often encounter admissibility issues due to social concerns and regulations that must be respected. A key situation that has not been thoroughly analyzed in the literature involves the market-clearing requirement, which ensures balance in allocations across multiple matching markets, similar to supply-and-demand dynamics. To address these admissibility issues, we introduce the concept of an admissible set for such problems. We propose two solutions. The first solution is the "fairness-guaranteed stable solution." We identify a requirement on admissible sets that is necessary and sufficient for the non-emptiness of this solution. This requirement ensures that an allocation where no agent is assigned any resources is admissible. We then conduct welfare analysis and comparative statics of this solution. The second solution is called "efficiency-guaranteed stability, " which focuses on maximizing efficiency within the constraints of the admissible set. We show that only specific admissible sets allow this solution to be non-empty. |
| Keywords: | Efficiency, Fairness, Matching |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-24-004 |
| By: | Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS; Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Division of Insurance Medicine, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet); Maximilian Hess (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria); Markus Gerschberger (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, University of Applied Sciences Upper Austria); Stefan Thurner (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS; Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Santa Fe Institute) |
| Abstract: | The steel industry is a significant contributor to global CO2 emissions, accounting for 7% of emissions. The European steel industry aims to reduce emissions by transitioning towards electric arc furnaces (EAFs), which can produce steel from scrap, a crucial step towards a circular steel economy. This paper uses trade and business intelligence data to show that this shift necessitates a profound restructuring of global and European scrap trade and a significant expansion of the business ecosystem. We find that scrap imports in European countries with major EAF installations have steadily decreased since 2007, while global scrap trade has recently increased. Statistical modeling indicates that for every 1, 000 tonnes of EAF capacity installed, annual scrap imports increase by 550 tonnes and exports decrease by 1, 000 tonnes, suggesting increased competition for scrap metal as EAF capacity expands. Furthermore, each scrap company supports around 79, 000 tonnes of EAF-based steel production per year in the EU. Extrapolating current EAF expansion plans, we estimate that an additional 730 companies may be required, creating approximately 35, 000 jobs and generating USD 35 billion in turnover. This analysis suggests that scrap metal is likely to become a strategic resource, highlighting the need for a major restructuring of the industry’s supply networks and identifying growth opportunities for companies. |
| Keywords: | Electric Arc Furnaces, Circular Economy, Trade Networks, Ferrous Waste, Steel Industry, Supply Chain, European Steel |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:wpaper:003 |
| By: | Jaehyun Kim; Hyungbin Park |
| Abstract: | This study develops a BSDE method for the long-term decomposition of pricing kernels under the G-expectation framework. We establish the existence, uniqueness, and regularity of solutions to three types of quadratic G-BSDEs: finite-horizon G-BSDEs, infinite-horizon G-BSDEs, and ergodic G-BSDEs. Moreover, we explore the Feynman--Kac formula associated with these three types of quadratic G-BSDEs. Using these results, a pricing kernel is uniquely decomposed into four components: an exponential discounting component, a transitory component, a symmetric G-martingale, and a decreasing component that captures the volatility uncertainty of the G-Brownian motion. Furthermore, these components are represented through a solution to a PDE. This study extends previous findings obtained under a single fixed probability framework to the G-expectation context. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00535 |
| By: | Mukherjee, Krishnendu |
| Abstract: | Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) face two extreme situa-tions, namely, high demand and low demand. In high demand, TNCs use surge multiplier or surge rate to balance the high demand of riders with available drivers. Willingness of drivers, willingness of riders to pay more and appropriate surge rate play a crucial role in maximizing profits of TNCs. Otherwise, a considerable number of trips can be dis-carded either by drivers or riders. This paper explains an application of a combined classification and regression model for surge rate pre-diction. In this paper, twenty-six different machine learning (ML) al-gorithms are considered for classification and twenty-nine ML algo-rithms are considered for regression. A total of 55 ML algorithms is considered for surge rate prediction. This paper shows that estimated distance, trip price, acceptance date and time of the trip, finishing time of the trip, starting time of the trip, search radius, base price, wind velocity, humidity, wind pressure, temperature etc. determine whether surge rate or surge multiplier will be applied or not. The price per mi-nute applied for the current trip or minute price, base price, cost of the trip after inflation or deflation (i.e. trip price), the applied radius search for the trip or search radius, humidity, acceptance date of the trip with date and time, barometric pressure, wind velocity, minimum price of the trip, the price per km etc., on the other hands, influenced surge rate A case study has been discussed to implement the proposed algorithm. |
| Keywords: | Machine Learning, Surge Rate Prediction, Surge Price, Classification, Regression, Random Forest, Light GBM, XGBoost |
| JEL: | C63 C88 Y10 |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122151 |
| By: | Sophie Witter (Institute for Global Health and Development; Queen Margaret University; Edinburgh & ReBUILD for Resilience research consortium); Pete Baker (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Launched in December 2023, the Lusaka Agenda laid out a set of shifts and actions to strengthen financing for universal health coverage (UHC). A process for establishing mutual accountability for delivery is ongoing, including within the African Union, but metrics for assessing progress have not yet been established. In this paper, we propose a Lusaka Agenda Tracker. Specially, we aim to provide an independent, technical perspective on indicators that may be useful to track progress on the Lusaka Agenda, focusing in particular on the three global health initiatives (GHIs)—the Global Fund, Gavi, and the Global Financing Facility (GFF)—which are most involved in the financing components of national health systems. Tracking these indicators can support the organisational changes that are needed to enable better alignment at country health system level. We developed a long list of 33 potential indicators and milestones, working from the Lusaka Agenda, other relevant documents, and using interviews with experts from a range of relevant organisations, including the Global Fund, Gavi, and the GFF. These were sorted into near-term milestones and medium-term indicators, and prioritised according to their importance, measurability, and coverage of key shifts and health system blocks. The near-term milestones help to prepare for the more important shifts covered in the medium-term. This includes establishing a cross-board governance mechanism, developing roadmaps to implement reforms in each GHI, completing pilots, and agreeing common definitions, baseline values, and transparent annual reporting across the GHIs on the suggested priority medium-term indicators. Seven in total, these indicators will be key to supporting progress on the Lusaka Agenda. We believe that this independent proposal addresses an important missing piece in discussions about taking forward the Lusaka Agenda to strengthen the effectiveness of the support GHIs provide to national health systems. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:336 |
| By: | Senlin Miao (NUAA - Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics [Nanjing]); Zhaobo Zhu (Audencia Business School); Xiaohua Deng (University of New South Wales [Kensington]); Fenghua Wen (Central South University [Changsha]) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the interplay between politics and law enforcement in China and its effects on firm financing decisions. By examining a sample of corporate lawsuits involving listed firms in China, we find that politically connected firms are less likely to be defendants, have higher win rates, and experience shorter litigation durations than non-connected firms. Additionally, we observe that firms with higher legal risk extend more accounts receivable and receive less accounts payable, but this relationship holds only for non-connected firms. Our findings support the financing advantage theory for politically connected firms and the legal risk compensation view for non-connected firms. Moreover, reforms in China's judicial system do not appear to mitigate the disadvantages faced by non-connected firms in terms of lawsuit outcomes and trade credit provision. Our findings suggest that well-functioned judicial independence might be still lacking in China, and that political connections continue to negatively impact law enforcement and corporate policies. |
| Keywords: | Lawsuits, Judicial reforms, Political connections, Trade credit |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04670162 |
| By: | Vasily Melnikov |
| Abstract: | The abstract theory of risk measures is well-developed for certain classes of solid subspaces of $L^{0}$. We provide an example to illustrate that this framework is insufficient to deal with the subtleties of incomplete markets. To remedy this problem, we consider risk measures on the subspace generated by a closed, absolutely convex, and bounded subset $K\subset L^{0}$, which represents the attainable securities. In this context, we introduce the equicontinuous Fatou property. Under the existence of a certain topology $\tau$ on $\mathrm{span}(K)$, interpreted as a generalized weak-star topology, we obtain an equivalence between the equicontinuous Fatou property, and lower semicontinuity with respect to $\tau$. As a corollary, we obtain tractable dual representations for such risk measures, which subsumes essentially all known results on weak-star representations of risk measures. This dual representation allows one to prove that all risk measures of this form extend, in a maximal way, to the ideal generated by $\mathrm{span}(K)$ while preserving a Fatou-like property. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.05194 |
| By: | Mathur, Maya B; Shpitser, Ilya |
| Abstract: | By revisiting imputation from the modern perspective of missing data graphs, we correct common guidance about which auxiliary variables should be included in an imputation model. We propose a generalized definition of missingness at random (MAR), called “z-MAR'', which makes explicit the set of variables to be analyzed and a separate set of auxiliary variables that are included in the imputation model, but not analyzed. We provide a graphical equivalent of z-MAR that we call the “m-backdoor criterion”. In a sense we formalize, a standard imputation model trained on complete cases is valid for a given analysis if and only if the m-backdoor criterion holds. As the criterion indicates, the standard recommendations to use all available auxiliary variables, or all that are associated with missingness status, can lead to invalid imputation models and biased estimates. This bias arises from collider stratification and can occur even with non-causal estimands. Instead, the set of auxiliary variables should be restricted to those that affect incomplete variables or missingness indicators. These auxiliary variables will always suffice to have a valid imputation model, if such a set does exist among the candidate auxiliary variables. Applying this result does not require full knowledge of the graph. |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zqne9 |
| By: | Itzhak Ben-David; Alex Chinco |
| Abstract: | All of asset-pricing theory currently stems from one key assumption: price equals expected discounted payoff. And much of what we think we know about discount rates comes from studying a particular kind of expected payoff: the earnings forecasts in analyst reports. Researchers typically access these numbers through an easy-to-use database and never read the underlying documents. This is unfortunate because the text of each report contains an explicit description of how the analyst priced their own earnings forecast. We study a sample of 513 reports and find that most analysts use a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio not a discount rate. Instead of computing the present value of a company’s future earnings, they ask: “How would a firm with similar earnings have been priced last year?” Even if other investors do things differently, it does not make sense to put discount rates at the center of every asset-pricing model if market participants do not always use one. There are other options. Trailing twelve-month P/E ratios account for 91% of the variation in analysts’ price targets.We construct a new kind of asset-pricing model around this fact and show that it explains the market response to earnings surprises. |
| JEL: | G12 G14 G32 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32942 |
| By: | Blit, Joel; Skuterud, Mikal; Zhang, Ruiwen |
| Abstract: | A key objective of Canada's International Education Strategy (2014) isto leverage Canada's postsecondary institutions to attract and retain the world's "best and brightest" students to raise the average skill of the Canadian population and boost economic growth. However, evidence suggests that Canada's former international students experience significant labour market integration challenges, and the Strategy overlooks these challenges. The earnings disparities of former international students, and Canadian immigrants more generally, are usually interpreted as evidence of skill underutilization owing to employer discrimination against racial and ethnic minorities. Hard evidence of skill underutilization is, however, scant due to a dearth of data providing direct measures of workers' skills. Our study brings new evidence to bear on the skill underutilization hypothesis by examining a unique linkage of student records from the University of Waterloo, including students' grades, with immigration data from Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada and T1 income tax returns from the Canada Revenue Agency. UWaterloo is best known for its academic programs in computer science, mathematics, and engineering, which has earned it the moniker the "MIT of the North." Evidence that UWaterloo's international student graduates struggle in Canadian labour markets relative to their Canadian-born counterparts graduating from the same academic programs with similar academic standing provides a direct test of the skill underutilization hypothesis. The evidence also offers critical lessons on whether policy efforts to realize the full economic potential of international students are best directed at augmenting employer hiring behaviour through DEI initiatives, for example, or at improving the attraction and selection of international talent and promoting skill formation, including language training. |
| Keywords: | Migration policy, Students, Strategy, Labor market integration, Canada |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:303035 |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo; Drago, Carlo; Arnone, Massimo |
| Abstract: | The article explores the diffusion of online sales tools among Italian enterprises with at least ten employees, considering regional inequalities through methods that help address economic policy. The study gives an overall assessment of the adoption of e-commerce among Italian SMEs, using multiple methods that help to identify regional disparities and provide insight for policymakers. The data were obtained from the ISTAT-BES database. Analysis was applied using the k-Means machine learning algorithm by comparing the Silhouette coefficient vs. the Elbow method. The elbow method reveals greater expository capacity, and the optimal number of clusters equals 3. The econometric analysis used the following methods: Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Weighted Least Squares-WLS, and Dynamic Panels at 1 Stage. The results show that cultural and creative employment and regular internet users are positively associated with SMEs active in e-commerce while negatively associated with the family's availability of at least one computer and internet connection. Finally, the article compares different machine learning algorithms to predict the future value of SMEs active in e-commerce. The results are discussed critically. |
| Keywords: | e-Commerce, Small and Medium Enterprises, Regional Inequalities, Panel Data, k-Means, Machine-Learning. |
| JEL: | O3 O30 O31 O32 O33 O34 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122115 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Stephen J. Redding; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion that occurred in the second half of the 19th century. We use a newly-created dataset on population, employment by sector, property values, and poor law transfers for over 10, 000 parishes in England and Wales from 1801–1901. In response to this trade shock, we show that locations with high wheat suitability experience population decline, rural-urban migration, structural transformation away from agriculture, increases in welfare transfers, and declines in property values, relative to locations with low wheat suitability. We develop a quantitative spatial model to evaluate the income distributional consequences of this trade shock. Undertaking counterfactuals for the Grain Invasion, we show that geography is an important dimension along which these income distributional consequences occur. |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F66 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32958 |
| By: | Marie Laclau; Péter Vida; Helmuts Azacis (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | We show that essentially every correlated equilibrium of any finite game with complete information with four players can be implemented as a perfect Bayesian equilibrium of an extended game, in which before choosing actions in the underlying game, players exchange cheap talk messages. In particular, we improve on the result of B´ar´any (1992) and Gerardi (2004). And our result generalizes to sequential equilibria and to games with incomplete information, i.e. to the set of (regular) communication equilibria. |
| Keywords: | nmediated communication; sequential rationality; correlated equilibria; communication equilibria; communication protocols |
| JEL: | C72 D82 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2024-07 |
| By: | Ihle, Hans; Marsden, Richard; Frizlen, Yasmine |
| Abstract: | The adoption of 4G and 5G technologies has led to a remarkable surge in mobile data consumption, prompting regulators worldwide to make substantial amounts of new spectrum available to mobile operators through spectrum auctions. This paper aims to examine the trends in spectrum pricing and to address the question of how much spectrum mobile networks will need in the long term. Spectrum auction prices should reveal the market value of spectrum which will provide an indication of its scarcity. Therefore, to address this question, the paper utilizes a global dataset of more than 400 spectrum auction prices from 2007 to 2023 to demonstrate that spectrum prices have generally declined over the past two decades. This decline suggests that while mobile data traffic has expanded, the release of new spectrum has generally kept pace and helped avoid capacity issues on mobile networks. In Section 2, we1 examine the trends for different types of spectrum, including low band, lower mid-band, and upper mid-band spectrum, which serve different purposes in mobile networks. The results indicate an overall decline in spectrum prices, with the steepest decline observed in low-band spectrum. This suggests that incremental coverage spectrum is no longer essential, as successive releases of this spectrum have adequately met market demands. Lower mid-band spectrum prices have also decreased, while prices for upper mid-band capacity bands have remained relatively stable, indicating their continued importance in providing capacity. In Section 3, we turn to mobile data consumption. Industry statistics generally show an accelerating growth rate in the early days of 4G, but a decline in the later 5G era. A possible implication is that data consumption is following an S-shaped curve typical for technological innovation. We fit a generalized logistics function to OECD data using least squares and then use it to forecast mobile data demand in the future. These forecasts are then compared to other projections which assume exponential growth. We find that the S-curve provides a more plausible path for mobile data growth, based on historical data, implying that exponential forecasts significantly overestimate future data consumption. Higher growth forecasts may only be justified if there is a significant future change in how we use phones, such as widespread adoption of data-intensive extended reality (XR)2 technology, This finding has significant implications for regulators planning future spectrum releases. Even with slowing data growth, the absolute expansion in data traffic carried by mobile networks over the next ten years will be substantial. Nevertheless, it may be possible to accommodate this with relatively modest increases in spectrum allocation for mobile, as opposed to the huge increases that would be required to support exponential growth in mobile traffic. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302457 |
| By: | Christof Schmidhuber |
| Abstract: | Conformal field theories with central charge $c\le1$ on random surfaces have been extensively studied in the past. Here, this discussion is extended from their equilibrium distribution to their critical dynamics. This is motivated by the conjecture that these models describe the time evolution of certain social networks that are self-driven to a critical point. The time evolution of the surface area is identified as a Cox Ingersol Ross process. Planar surfaces shrink, while higher genus surfaces grow until the cosmological constant stops their growth. Three different equilibrium states are distingushed, dominated by (i) small planar surfaces, (ii) large surfaces with high but finite genus, and (iii) foamy surfaces, whose genus diverges. Time variations of the order parameter are analyzed and are found to have generalized hyperbolic distributions. In state (i), those have power law tails with a tail index close to 4. Analogies between the time evolution of the order parameter and a multifractal random walk are also pointed out. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.05547 |
| By: | Höcker, Martin Christian; Voll, Kyra; Bachtal, Yassien Nico; Pfnür, Andreas |
| Abstract: | As a result of the transformation of work, organisations and employees find themselves in a hybrid working world. Due to the perceived personal and work-related benefits, employees prefer to perform large parts of their work from home. At the same time, some organisations would like to see their employees back in the office more often. While, in the accompanying return-to-office debate, some organisations are focusing on restricting employee flexibility, others are asking themselves how they can increase the desire of employees to work in the office again through an attractive workplace design. The discussion about increasing employees' desire to work in the office focuses on improving the physical workplace, but the role of organisational culture has so far been excluded from the debate. Organisational cultures influence employee behaviour; therefore, an office-centric organisational culture could influence the desire to work in the office. Against this background, this study uses hierarchical moderated multiple regression analysis to examine the significance of real estate resources and organisational culture for the desire to work in the office. The empirical analysis considers survey data from N = 453 German employees. The study results suggest that employees can be lured back to the office by upgrading the quality of the workplace. In addition, the study demonstrates the moderating influence of an office-centred culture on the relationship between employees' satisfaction with their office workplace and the share of working hours they want to spend in the office. The study thus provides guidance in the debate on strategies for returning employees to the office and offers indications for workplace planning and organisational and management-related adaptation. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149747 |
| By: | Lo\"ic Mar\'echal; Nathan Monnet |
| Abstract: | We use a methodology based on a machine learning algorithm to quantify firms' cyber risks based on their disclosures and a dedicated cyber corpus. The model can identify paragraphs related to determined cyber-threat types and accordingly attribute several related cyber scores to the firm. The cyber scores are unrelated to other firms' characteristics. Stocks with high cyber scores significantly outperform other stocks. The long-short cyber risk factors have positive risk premia, are robust to all factors' benchmarks, and help price returns. Furthermore, we suggest the market does not distinguish between different types of cyber risks but instead views them as a single, aggregate cyber risk. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08728 |
| By: | Louise Taupin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Télécom Paris); Pascal Le Masson (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Télécom Paris); Blanche Segrestin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Télécom Paris) |
| Abstract: | The prospect of solving ‘grand challenges' through technological innovation justifies the interest shown in deep-tech start-ups. These companies develop technological solutions, which they then seek to implement on a massive scale during their scale-up phase. They nevertheless encounter difficulties at this stage, which starts with the validation of their business model. This research supplements the results reported in the literature on business models in the scale-up phase, with a design-oriented approach, which is better suited to the case of technology companies. Based on intervention research carried out in an urban agriculture deep-tech start-up, an axiomatic design tool is used to highlight the importance of distinguishing between the validation of elements of the business model and their preservation. This ensures that the deep-tech start-up's subsequent developments are aligned with the goals of resolving major challenges. |
| Abstract: | La perspective d'une résolution des grand challenges par l'innovation technologique justifie l'intérêt porté aux start-up deeptech. Celles-ci développent en effet des solutions technologiques, qu'elles cherchent à déployer massivement lors de leur phase de scale-up. Néanmoins, elles restent confronter aux difficultés de cette étape, qui démarre à partir de la validation du modèle d'affaires. Cette recherche propose de compléter les résultats de la littérature sur les modèles d'affaires sur la phase de scale-up par une approche issue de la conception, plus adaptée au cas d'entreprises technologiques. À partir d'une recherche-intervention menée au sein d'une start-up deeptech de l'agriculture urbaine, le recours à un outil de la conception axiomatique permet de mettre en évidence l'intérêt de distinguer la validation des éléments du modèle d'affaires de leur préservation, pour garantir un alignement des développements ultérieurs de la start-up deeptech avec les enjeux de résolution des grands défis simultanément. |
| Keywords: | start-up deeptech, scale-up, patrimoine de création, conception, modèle d'affaires |
| Date: | 2024–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04687759 |
| By: | David Piovesan (Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | La réinvention de la librairie ou la formulation d'un nouvel espace-tempsDavid Piovesan Maître de conférences HDR en sciences de gestion, Magellan, université Lyon 3 La crise sanitaire a mis en lumière l'importance des librairies qu'il s'agisse de leur rôle social ou de leur poids économique. Le secteur du livre a fait l'objet de nombreux travaux mais ceuxci se sont consacrés principalement à la sociologie de la lecture ou aux stratégies des éditeurs face à la révolution digitale. Concernant la librairie, s'il existe quelques rares travaux du côté des sciences de gestion (Poirel, 2015), il faut plutôt aller du côté de l'économie de la création (Salvator et Benghozi, 2021) ou de la sociologie (Chabault, 2022) pour trouver matière à comprendre les transformations que cette organisation de l'industrie culturelle et créative a connu. Ces transformations ont été puissantes ces deux dernières décennies. Il existe quelques rares tentatives de dessiner un modèle d'analyse de ces mutations (Paris et Massé, 2021) mais la notion d'espace-temps apporte une touche supplémentaire et fournit ainsi un prisme de lecture et de compréhension particulièrement fécond. Nous considérons en effet la notion d'espace-temps comme un loupe grossissante des mutations à l'oeuvre dans les organisations contemporaines décrite comme de plus en plus déstructurées (Rosa, 2006 et Bauman, 2006) ou hybrides (Welté, 2018). |
| Keywords: | Gestion, Librairie, Industries cultuelles |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04691610 |
| By: | Hufbauer, Gary Clyde |
| Abstract: | Subsidies to the semiconductor industry have been massive ever since chips were created in the 1950s. Yet, semiconductor subsidies have never been challenged in the GATT or WTO, and rarely in bilateral commercial relations. Reasons suggest a permanent vacuum of subsidy discipline for this and kindred industries. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:302798 |
| By: | Hazarika, Gautam (The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley) |
| Abstract: | Rice and wheat are India's staple cereal crops and there is significant regional variation in the suitability to the cultivation of each. Both are so-called 'plough-positive' crops, whose cultivation is benefited by ploughing. It has previously been argued that the ancient adoption of the plough, a heavy implement better suited to handling by men, was a factor in the evolution of cultural norms prescribing a domestic role for women in society (Boserup, 1970). This study contends that rice is an anomalous plough-positive crop in that its cultivation, highly labor-intensive, has traditionally required much female labor. This, it is argued, may have led to a local loosening of plough culture's strictures against work by Indian women proportional to the local relative, to wheat, suitability to rice cultivation. To distinguish between a cultural effect and the technical effect of the labor-intensivity of rice cultivation, this study considers the workforce participation of urban women, spatially removed from agricultural operations. It is found that the district urban female workforce participation rates in both the 2001 and 2011 Censuses of India significantly increase in the district relative suitability to rice cultivation. Further, the increase in the district urban female workforce participation rate between 2001 and 2011 was significantly more pronounced in districts potentially better suited to growing rice than wheat. In addition, analysis of microdata from the 1999-2000 National Sample Survey of Employment and Unemployment reveals that the urban female propensity to work significantly increases in the district relative suitability to rice cultivation, though, tellingly, only so in the case of natives of the district, those whose culture will have been shaped by the local agro- ecology. Finally, urban females principally engaged in domestic duties are likelier to report that they are required to be so occupied, the compulsion probably cultural in nature, the less relatively suitable the district is to rice cultivation, with this effect too confined to natives of the district. Taken together, these findings suggest that rice cultivation has played a cultural role in Indian women's workforce participation. |
| Keywords: | deep roots of culture, female labor force participation, India |
| JEL: | Z1 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17250 |
| By: | Josée St-Pierre; Annie Royer; Crispin Enagogo; Jean Pierre Dany Menguele |
| Abstract: | The biofood industry is a vital part of the Quebec economy and plays a major role in its cultural identity. It encompasses a wide range of activities related to the production, processing, distribution, and consumption of food and beverages from both organic and conventional agriculture. By 2021, the biofood industry's contribution to Quebec's gross domestic product was estimated at over 6% of the economy. Quebec biofood exports reached a record $11.4 billion in 2022. However, SMEs are still under-represented among exporting companies. This under-representation may result from significant financial issues specific to SMEs and other export-related characteristics of the biofood sector. In this study, the authors provide a deeper understanding of the financial issues involved in SME export activities, which can be critical at any point in the process, to propose a tool to help them plan the different expenses they are likely to incur. L'industrie bioalimentaire revêt une importance capitale dans l'économie québécoise et joue un rôle majeur dans son identité culturelle. Elle englobe un large éventail d'activités liées à la production, à la transformation, à la distribution et à la consommation d'aliments et de boissons provenant à la fois de l'agriculture biologique et de l'agriculture conventionnelle. En 2021, la contribution de l'industrie bioalimentaire au produit intérieur brut du Québec était estimée à plus de 6 % de l'économie. Les exportations bioalimentaires du Québec ont atteint un record de 11, 4 milliards de dollars en 2022. Cependant, les PME sont toujours sous-représentées parmi les entreprises exportatrices. Cette sous-représentation peut découler d’enjeux financiers importants et propres aux PME et autres particularités du secteur bioalimentaire en matière d'exportation. Dans cette étude, les auteurs approfondissent les connaissances sur les enjeux financiers des activités d’exportation des PME qui peuvent se révéler critiques à tout moment du processus, afin de proposer un outil d’aide à la planification des différentes dépenses que les PME seraient susceptibles d’engager. |
| Keywords: | Financial Self-Sufficiency, Quebec, SME, Biofood Exports, Planning Tool, Autonomie financière, Québec, PME, Exportations bioalimentaires, Outil dâaide à la planification |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2024rp-16 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Stephen J. Redding; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion that occurred in the second half of the 19th century. We use a newly-created dataset on population, employment by sector, property values, and poor law transfers for over 10, 000 parishes in England and Wales from 1801-1901. In response to this trade shock, we show that locations with high wheat suitability experience population decline, rural-urban migration, structural transformation away from agriculture, increases in welfare transfers, and declines in property values, relative to locations with low wheat suitability. We develop a quantitative spatial model to evaluate the income distributional consequences of this trade shock. Undertaking counterfactuals for the Grain Invasion, we show that geography is an important dimension along which these income distributional consequences occur. |
| Keywords: | international trade, income distribution, geography |
| Date: | 2024–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2033 |
| By: | Stutzer, Alois; Matter, Ulrich; Balles, Patrick |
| Abstract: | In this survey, we investigate the general mechanisms underlying the political economy of attention and review their empirical relevance, in particular for electoral accountability. The focus is on exogenous or stimulus-driven attention that political actors try to win or divert when pursuing their private interests. The corresponding evidence refers to representatives' reactions to general shifts in media attention and persuasive content as well as to short-term fluctuations in attention when exploiting anticipated attention shifts or attention shocks. In the context of digitization and the Internet, we consider the substitution effects between alternative media sources, the role of algorithmic content selection in informational segregation (or echo chambers), and the new opportunities of individual-level targeting strategies to steer attention. |
| Keywords: | accountability, attention, media, representative democracy, re-election |
| JEL: | D72 D83 L82 L86 |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2024/10 |
| By: | Vitalis, Kyriacos (University of Cyprus); Stefanidis, Dimosthenis; Pallis, George; Dikaiakos, Marios; Nicolaou, Nicos; Nicolaides, Christos (University of Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | We leverage a rich online social network and entrepreneurial performance dataset to identify the effect of entrepreneurs’ social network activity on their professional success. We focus our analysis on ~79K founders of organizations listed in Crunchbase with an active personal Twitter account. We employ Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple linear regression, where the dependent variable is the founder’s career success indicator as extracted from Crunchbase, and the predictor variables are the social network presence and activity indicators as extracted from Twitter. We find that the founder’s average annual number of tweets is negatively associated with different success indicators, demonstrating a significant adverse impact of mere tweeting on success. To address endogeneity concerns, we implement panel data analysis with Fixed Effects (FE) and Instrumental Variables (IV) by the means of Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression, the results of which are largely consistent with those of OLS main analysis. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:x6vda |
| By: | Vincent P. Roberdel (Eindhoven University of Technology); Ioulia V. Ossokina (Eindhoven University of Technology); Vladimir A. Karamychev (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Theo A. Arentze (Eindhoven University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency improvements in low income housing are increasingly used as a policy instrument to alleviate poverty. Our paper shows that this may come at the expense of reduced environmental benefits. We follow 125, 000 Dutch low-income households during eight years and exploit a quasi-experimental policy that diminished the heat losses in their homes. We pay specific attention to the policy effects at the very left tail of the income distribution. While the average after-policy reduction in natural gas consumption for heating amounts to 22%, the poorest only save 16%. We build and calibrate a microeconomic model explaining this pattern from substitution between thermal comfort and other goods, and use it to compute welfare trade-offs of the policies. |
| Keywords: | Energy-efficient homes, Social housing, Poverty, Quasi-experiment, Retrofit, Welfare effects |
| JEL: | D12 Q4 Q48 Q5 |
| Date: | 2023–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230082 |
| By: | Tao, Guannan; Zheng, Feifan; Li, Wei |
| Abstract: | In the digital age, users in China are increasingly inclined to adopt taskoriented chatbots for task-driven work. This study, based on the Task Technology Fit model combined with the UTAUT model, collected 700 valid questionnaires. It employed Amos 24.0 for descriptive statistical analysis, reliability and validity testing, and correlation analysis of the collected data. The Harman single-factor test method was used to examine common method bias, and the Bootstrap method and simple slope analysis method were applied to verify hypotheses. SPSS 28.0 was used for multiple linear regression analysis and mediation effect analysis to test hypotheses. The study empirically investigated the factors influencing users' behavior in using task-oriented chatbots in China, focusing on seven impact factors: two dependent variables of AI communication anthropomorphism and interactivity, one independent variable of behavior, two mediating variables of performance expectancy and usage intention, and three moderating variables of task characteristics, technology characteristics, and task-technology fit. The results indicate that the factors of AI anthropomorphism and interactivity have a significant impact on the residents of the Yangtze River Delta region using task-driven Chatbots for task-driven work. Moreover, through the mediating effects and moderating roles of other variables, a complex networked structure is formed. The adaptability of technology and the individual's willingness to use it in varying scenarios together constitute the influencing factors of behavior. |
| Keywords: | Task-Driven chatbots, User Behavior, Influencing Factors, TTF Model, UTAUT Model |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302512 |
| By: | Antoine Ebeling |
| Abstract: | This paper study the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) climate related speeches on European stock markets. Using the database of 2594 speeches between 1997 and 2022 of the European Central Bank, we employ advanced textual analysis techniques, including keyword identification and topic modeling, to isolate speeches related to climate change. We then conduct an event study to estimate the differences in abnormal returns of a large panel of listed companies in response to the European Central Bank’s speeches on climate change. Our analysis reveals that the ECB’s communication on climate issues has intensified significantly since 2015. Using topic modelling methods, we classify climate speeches into two main themes: (i) green finance and economic policies, and (ii) climate-related risks The event study shows that financial markets tend to reallocate portfolios towards greener ones in the days following the ECB’s climate speeches. Our results show that following a climatic speech by the ECB, green financial markets are benefiting from positive abnormal returns by around 1 percentage point. More specifically, we find that climate speeches dealing with green monetary policy and other economic policy instruments have a larger effect on green stock prices than speeches dealing with different types of climate risk. |
| Keywords: | Central bank communication ; Climate change ; Event Study ; Textual Analysis. |
| JEL: | E52 G14 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-38 |
| By: | Mingpu Ma |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the concept of "momentum" in sports competitions through the use of the TOPSIS model and 0-1 logistic regression model. First, the TOPSIS model is employed to evaluate the performance of two tennis players, with visualizations used to analyze the situation's evolution at every moment in the match, explaining how "momentum" manifests in sports. Then, the 0-1 logistic regression model is utilized to verify the impact of "momentum" on match outcomes, demonstrating that fluctuations in player performance and the successive occurrence of successes are not random. Additionally, this paper examines the indicators that influence the reversal of game situations by analyzing key match data and testing the accuracy of the models with match data. The findings show that the model accurately explains the conditions during matches and can be generalized to other sports competitions. Finally, the strengths, weaknesses, and potential future improvements of the model are discussed. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.02872 |
| By: | Mario Tamez; Hans Weenink; Akihiro Yoshinaga |
| Abstract: | Well-designed legal frameworks and institutional arrangments support the legitimacy of central banks’ autonomous decision-making when grounded on sound legal basis and can prevent over-stepping in the remit of other authorities. This paper explores the key legal intersections of climate change and central banks. Climate change could impact price and finanical stability, which are at the core of a central bank’s mandate. While central banks’ legal frameworks can support climate change efforts they also determine the boundaries of the measures they can adopt. Central banks need to assess their mandate and authority under their current legal frameworks when considering measures to contribute to the global response to climate change, while taking actions to fulfill their legal mandates. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Central Bank; Legal Framework |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/192 |
| By: | Omer Faruk Akbal |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for regime-switching dynamic factor models provides satisfactory performance relative to other estimation methods and delivers a good trade-off between accuracy and speed, which makes it especially useful for large dimensional data. Unlike traditional numerical maximization approaches, this methodology benefits from closed-form solutions for parameter estimation, enhancing its practicality for real-time applications and historical data exercises with focus on frequent updates. In a nowcasting application to vintage US data, I study the information content and relative performance of regime-switching model after each data releases in a fifteen year period, which was only feasible due to the time efficiency of the proposed estimation methodology. While existing literature has already acknowledged the performance improvement of nowcasting models under regime-switching, this paper shows that the superior nowcasting performance observed particularly when key economic indicators are released. In a backcasting exercise, I show that the model can closely match the recession starting and ending dates of the NBER despite having less information than actual committee meetings, where the fit between actual dates and model estimates becomes more apparent with the additional available information and recession end dates are fully covered with a lag of three to six months. Given that the EM algorithm proposed in this paper is suitable for various regime-switching configurations, this paper provides economists and policymakers with a valuable tool for conducting comprehensive analyses, ranging from point estimates to information decomposition and persistence of recessions in larger datasets. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/190 |
| By: | Jiao, Yang (Singapore Management University); Kwon, Ohyun (Drexel University); Lee, Saiah (Ulsan National Institute of Science & Technology) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the internationalization of Renminbi (IoR) since 2006 by examining its increased utilization among Korean exporters to China. Employing proprietary data fromKorean customs, which includes detailed invoicing information, our analysis reveals that products invoiced, either fully or partially, in RMB have experienced more rapid export growth. Furthermore, firms adopting RMB invoicing also exhibit faster export growth to China after controlling for relevant observables. Our findings remain robust when employing an instrumental variable approach to address potential endogeneity concerns. With the help of a currency invoicing model that demonstrates different impact channels, we show that the increased trade volume is due to Chinese importers facing lower currency costs when purchasing RMB-invoiced products compared to USD-invoiced products. |
| Keywords: | RMB internalization; invoicing currency; international trade |
| JEL: | D22 F14 F31 |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2024_013 |
| By: | Liu, Tingjun (The University of Hong Kong); Bernhardt, Dan (University of Illinois & University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We consider a classical auction setting in which an asset/project is sold to buyers who privately receive signals about expected payoffs, and payoffs are more sensitive to the signal of the bidder who controls the asset. We show that a seller can increase revenues by sometimes allocating cash-flow rights and control to different bidders, e.g., with the highest bidder receiving cash flows and the second-highest receiving control. Separation reduces a bidder’s information rent, which depends on the importance of his private information for the value of his awarded cash flows. As project payoffs are most sensitive to the information of the bidder who controls the project, allocating cash flow to another bidder lowers bidders’ informational advantage. As a result, when signals are close, the seller can increase revenues by splitting rights between the top two bidders. |
| Keywords: | Control and cash flow rights ; separation of rights ; mechanism design ; interdependent valuations JEL Codes: D44 ; D82 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1516 |
| By: | Gary Cornwall; Marina Gindelsky |
| Abstract: | Inequality statistics are usually calculated from high-quality, comprehensive survey or administrative microdata. Naturally, this data is typically available with a lag of at least 9 months from the reference period. In turbulent times, there is interest in knowing the distributional impacts of observable aggregate business cycle and policy changes sooner. In this paper, we use an elastic net, a generalized model that incorporates lasso and ridge regressions as special cases, to nowcast the overall Gini coefficient and quintile level income shares. National accounts data, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, are used (starting in 2000) as features instead of the underlying microdata to produce a series of distributional nowcasts for 2020–2022. These nowcasts predict turning points with at least 85 percent accuracy across all metrics and minimal errors relative to na¨ıve models. We find we could plausibly create advance inequality estimates approximately one month after the end of the calendar year, reducing the present lag by almost a year. |
| Keywords: | inequality, income distribution, national accounts, nowcasting, machine learning |
| JEL: | C52 C53 D31 E01 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2024-003 |
| By: | Ackah, Charles; Hanley, Aoife; Hecker, Lars; Kodom, Michael |
| Abstract: | Our analysis of over 500 Ghanaian firms sheds light, for the first time, on how certain firms managed to extract value from mobile money. Our regressions point to the usefulness of this form of cashless payments in stabilizing sales during the COVID pandemic. Perhaps the most important message from our analysis is the recognition that the benefits from mobile money extend beyond its purpose as a tool for transacting cashless payments. We reveal that firms using these additional tools supported by MoMo (e.g. for planning or saving purposes) report higher sales resilience, all things equal. Our findings appear to echo the literature on private householders (e.g. Jack and Suri, 2014). However, while the latter report a positive effect due to remittances, our finding is more likely driven by enhanced ability of businesses to streamline their planning and sales. |
| Keywords: | Mobile Money, Africa, Firm, Urbanization |
| JEL: | G23 G21 L25 O14 O18 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kcgwps:303046 |
| By: | Joel Bowman (NSW Treasury); Jonathan Hambur (Reserve Bank of Australia); Nathan Markovski (NSW Treasury) |
| Abstract: | Occupational entry regulations (OER) are legal requirements that people need to meet to enter certain professions. They are intended to protect consumers by ensuring providers are of sufficient quality – but they can also create costs by making it harder for new workers to enter a profession or for new firms to open and grow. In this paper we construct a database of OER stringency across three states and a number of occupations to better understand these potential costs. We find that for services provided to consumers (businesses), OER tend to be more (less) stringent in Australia compared with the average OECD country. In most occupations OER are more stringent in Australia compared to the least stringent OECD country. We find that more stringent OER are associated with lower business entry and exit rates, and a slower flow of workers from less to more productive firms, both of which may have negative implications for productivity. We also find some tentative evidence that OER tend to be associated with skill shortages. These results do not necessarily suggest that OER should be less stringent. But they fill a gap in our understanding of the effects of OER, which can help policymakers going forward. |
| Keywords: | productivity; dynamism; occupational regulations |
| JEL: | E24 J24 K23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2024-06 |
| By: | Pauline Lam; Jeffrey Wurgler |
| Abstract: | Green finance emphasizes “additionality, ” meaning funded projects should offer distinct environmental benefits beyond standard practice. Analysis of U.S. corporate and municipal green bonds, however, indicates that the vast majority of green bond proceeds is used for refinancing ordinary debt, continuing ongoing projects, or initiating projects without green aspects that are novel for the issuer. Only 2% of corporate and municipal green bond proceeds initiate projects with clearly novel green features. Investors and market participants also do not distinguish among levels of additionality: Offering yields, announcement effects, green bond index inclusion, and green bond fund holdings are uncorrelated with additionality. |
| JEL: | G10 G32 Q50 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32960 |
| By: | Marion Ravit (CEPED - UMR_D 196 - Centre population et développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Benjamin Fomba; Martine Audibert (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Développer des méthodes fiables de mesure de la mortalité maternelle est indispensable dans les pays du sud où elle reste élevée, afin d'évaluer l'efficacité de soins dédiés aux femmes enceintes. |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04689740 |
| By: | Dahmouni Khelidja (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes) |
| Abstract: | This study has analyzed Algerian non-hydrocarbon exports, revealing a promising trend in the past three years. It has explored Algeria's major trade partners and governmental efforts to boost exports, in addition to highlighting significant obstacles.Several potential solutions were proposed. However, despite government efforts, nonhydrocarbon exports have been adversely affected due to bureaucratic challenges, warranting further attention in enhancing their growth for the country's economic development. |
| Keywords: | exports non-hydrocarbons exports foreign trade trade barriers JEL Classification Codes: F13 F31 N7 P33, exports, non-hydrocarbons exports, foreign trade, trade barriers JEL Classification Codes: F13, F31, N7, P33 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680581 |
| By: | Ronak Jain |
| Abstract: | Street vending is an important source of self-employment for the urban poor. I combine observational, survey, and experimental data from Delhi to study this market. Partnering with vendors to randomize prices and passersby they solicit, I find that even with identical goods, child vendors are 97% more likely to make a sale and earn 2x more than adult vendors. Despite no differences in valuations, couples and women are 90% and 28% more likely to buy than men and they are targeted more often and quoted higher prices. I show that sellers strategically leverage insights about social preferences to influence buyer decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Social preferences, child labor, price discrimination, consumer behavior |
| JEL: | C93 D91 J46 L10 O17 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:451 |
| By: | Akhtar, Farida; Kreitmeir, David; Newman, Luke; Ploeckl, Florian; Tarlinton, Boyd |
| Abstract: | Guo et al. (2023) examine the impact of early-life experiences of politicians on their policy implementations. They utilize differential exposure of Chinese county party secretaries to the Great Famine of 1959-1961 as a natural experiment and investigate the impact on their policy preferences, in particular fiscal expenditure on agriculture and social security. In their baseline analytical specification, the authors find that exposure to a one percentage point more severe famine led counties governed by these politicians to a 0.8% higher fiscal expenditure on agriculture and a 1.1% higher expenditure on social security subsidies. Their point estimates are statistically significant at the 1%, respective 5% levels depending on the included set of controls. First, we successfully computationally reproduce all quantitative claims, more precisely all tables and figures, of the paper, using the provided replication files. We uncover a minor coding error in a specification in a robustness check, though correcting it does actually strengthen the studies' main result, as well as a typo and rounding error in another robustness check. Additionally, the summary statistics and exploratory data analysis of the paper were also computationally reproduced using a different software package. Second, we directly replicate the results by systematically varying the sample size in two ways. One, we drop one individual control variable which increases the sample by retaining the observations that have missing values for that control variable, and two, we restrict the sample for the estimation of the impact on social security subsidies to only those observations that also report values for the agricultural fiscal subsidies. We find that retaining the observations with missing educational information values reduces the magnitude of all coefficients of interest (so interactions of famine severity with birth year indicators) with the impact on agricultural expenditure remaining statistically significant while the impact on social security subsidies is no longer statistically significant in three specifications and remains weakly significant in one. Similarly, the impact of estimating the impact on social security subsidies with the restricted sample of observations that have agricultural subsidy values also reduces the magnitude substantially and turns the coefficient statistically insignificant. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:155 |
| By: | Byrnes, Alex |
| Abstract: | Sanders et al. (2024) made the central claim that effects found in eight meta-analyses are "strong evidence" (P |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:154 |
| By: | Yang, Liang |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the core principles that should guide the construction and governance of identity in the metaverse and identifies the critical challenges that need to be addressed. Drawing on multidisciplinary theories and perspectives, we propose two core principles for metaverse identity: Equivalence and Alignment, and Fusion and Expansiveness. The first principle contends that metaverse identities should be consistent with real-world identities in terms of norms and standards, which is crucial for establishing guidelines and safeguarding rights. The second principle emphasizes the necessity for seamless integration and boundless expansion of metaverse identities, transcending real-world limitations to accommodate diverse needs and foster inclusive participation. We argue that these two principles are vital for ensuring the accountability, inclusiveness, and consistency of identity in the metaverse. We also identify five critical challenges: Identity Interoperability, Legal Implications, Privacy and Identity Management, Deepfakes and Synthetic Identities, and Identity Fragmentation and Psychological Well-being. We discuss potential strategies to navigate these challenges. The paper concludes by underscoring the importance of a proactive and collaborative approach to shaping the future of metaverse identity. As the metaverse continues to evolve, it is imperative that we cultivate a thorough understanding of the principles and challenges surrounding identity in this uncharted territory and work collectively to build a metaverse that fosters responsible identity construction and expression. |
| Keywords: | Metaverse, Identity, Governance, Principles, Interoperability, Privacy, Deepfakes, Synthetic Identity, Identity Fragmentation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302504 |
| By: | David Frayman |
| Abstract: | Governments of developed countries are facing growing pressures from the fiscal demands of an ageing population. To cope with this, they have tried to get individuals to work longer, primarily by raising the ages at which state pensions can be claimed. In the UK, where government spending on pensioner benefits represents over 5% of GDP2, state pension age has already been increased to 66 (from 60 for women and 65 for men). It is currently scheduled to increase to 67 between 2026 and 2028 and to 68 between 2044 and 2046. The Government is considering bringing the increase to 68 forward to the period 2037-2039. This chapter evaluates these proposed changes from a wellbeing perspective. |
| Keywords: | pensions, government spending |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepops:66 |
| By: | Hayo, Bernd (University of Marburg); Roth, Duncan H.W. (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | A sizeable literature analyses how immigration affects attitudes towards migrants and discusses differences between socio-economic groups and their potential correlation with perceived concerns about labour market competition. Against the background of the large-scale influx of refugees into Germany between 2015 and 2016, this paper uses data from a unique and representative survey of the German population to assess whether respondents express fears of job loss due to immigration. We focus on the importance of perceptions of migrants' ability to do one's job in relation to these fears. Moreover, we compare concerns about refugees with those about EU migrants and propose several hypotheses. Our findings indicate that: (i) Respondents are more likely to view EU migrants as potential competitors in the labour market. (ii) Workers in blue-collar occupations and without tertiary education are more likely to view migrants as potential competitors on the labour market. (iii) The perception of potential competition from migrants strongly predicts fear of job loss. Once we control for this perception, occupation and skill levels are no longer significantly related to the probability of reporting fear of job loss. Moreover, there are no longer significant differences between the two migrant groups. (iv) Anti-migrant sentiments are also associated with concerns about job loss. |
| Keywords: | refugees, EU migration, immigration, labour market, perceptions, competition, job loss, Germany |
| JEL: | F22 J61 D84 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17278 |
| By: | Philip Brookins; Jennifer Brown; Dmitry Ryvkin |
| Abstract: | Reward schemes may affect not only agents' effort, but also their incentives to gather information to reduce the riskiness of the productive activity. In a laboratory experiment using a novel task, we find that the relationship between incentives and evidence gathering depends critically on the availability of information about peers' strategies and outcomes. When no peer information is available, competitive rewards can be associated with more evidence gathering than noncompetitive rewards. In contrast, when decision-makers know what or how their peers are doing, competitive rewards schemes are associated with less active evidence gathering than noncompetitive schemes. The nature of the feedback -- whether subjects receive information about peers' strategies, outcomes, or both -- also affects subjects' incentives to engage in evidence gathering. Specifically, only combined feedback about peers' strategies and performance -- from which subjects may assess the overall relationship between evidence gathering, riskiness, and success -- is associated with less evidence gathering when rewards are based on relative performance; we find no similar effect for noncompetitive rewards. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.06248 |
| By: | Johannes Boehm; Thomas Chaney |
| Abstract: | What caused the end of antiquity, the shift of economic activity away from the Mediterranean towards northern Europe? We assemble a large database of coin flows between the 4th and 10th century and use it to document the shifting patterns of exchange during this time period. We build a dynamic model of trade and money where coins gradually diffuse along trade routes. We estimate the parameters of this model and recover time-varying bi-lateral trade flows and real consumption from data on the spatial and temporal distribution of coins. Our estimates suggest that technical progress, increased minting, and to a lesser degree the fall in trade flows over the newly formed border between Islam and Christianity contributed to the relative growth of Muslim Spain and the Frankish lands of northern Europe and the decline of the Roman-Byzantine world. Our estimates are consistent with the increased urbanization of western and northern Europe relative to the eastern Mediterranean from the 8th to the 10th century. |
| Keywords: | gravity models, international trade, market access, diffusion |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2030 |
| By: | Daniele Ballinari; Nora Bearth |
| Abstract: | Machine learning techniques are widely used for estimating causal effects. Double/debiased machine learning (DML) (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) uses a double-robust score function that relies on the prediction of nuisance functions, such as the propensity score, which is the probability of treatment assignment conditional on covariates. Estimators relying on double-robust score functions are highly sensitive to errors in propensity score predictions. Machine learners increase the severity of this problem as they tend to over- or underestimate these probabilities. Several calibration approaches have been proposed to improve probabilistic forecasts of machine learners. This paper investigates the use of probability calibration approaches within the DML framework. Simulation results demonstrate that calibrating propensity scores may significantly reduces the root mean squared error of DML estimates of the average treatment effect in finite samples. We showcase it in an empirical example and provide conditions under which calibration does not alter the asymptotic properties of the DML estimator. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.04874 |
| By: | Connolly, Marie; Djamaldiev, Oumar; Munteanu, Andrei |
| Abstract: | Overall, the results of this study are replicable using the clean dataset provided by the authors. However, the process of transforming the raw data into this clean dataset is at times unclear, and certain essential codes are missing from the replication materials, which may hinder complete replication. Despite these challenges, the paper's findings remain robust to a small number of robustness checks that we conducted, providing confidence in the reliability and stability of the results. Moving forward, efforts to enhance transparency in data transformation steps and inclusion of all necessary codes would facilitate more seamless replication and validation of the study's outcomes. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:153 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Emeride F. Kayo (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Vanessa S. Tchamyou (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Therese E. Zogo (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – This article analyses the effect of bank concentration on women's political empowerment in 80 developing countries over the period 2004-2020. Design/methodology/approach – Banking concentration (BC) is measured by the assets held by the three largest commercial banks as a percentage of total commercial bank assets in a country. We use several indices to measure political empowerment, namely: the political empowerment index, composed of three indices (i.e., the women's civil liberties index, the women's participation in civil society index and the women's political participation index). The empirical evidence is based on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Fixed Effects (FE) techniques. Findings – The following findings are established. Banking concentration reduces women's political empowerment. Furthermore, information sharing offices (i.e. public credit registries and private credit bureaus) mitigate the negative effect of bank concentration on women’s political empowerment. Information sharing thresholds that are needed to completely dampen the negative effect of bank concentration on women’s political empowerment are provided. Policy implications are discussed, notably: (i) that governments in developing countries increase competition by easing barriers to entry for potential banks, to facilitate the transition from confiscatory concentration to distributive concentration favorable to all stakeholders; and (ii) information sharing offices should be consolidated beyond the established thresholds in order to completely crowd-out the unfavorable effect of bank concentration of women’s political empowerment. Originality/value – The paper provides new empirical evidence that helps to advance the debate on the effects of banking concentration and information sharing in the banking sector on women's political empowerment in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Banking concentration; women political empowerment; OLS; Fixed Effects |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:24/006 |
| By: | Oktafien, Shinta; Santoso, Anton Budi; Rahmayanti, Rima; Qibtiyah, Mariah Rabiatul |
| Abstract: | Human resources have a very important role in efforts to achieve the goals of an organization or company, both in small and large organizations or companies. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of effective organizational communication, quality of work life, and work environment on improving employee performance at PT. Astra Honda Motor Sampurna. The population in this study were all employees working in this company with the number of samples taken as many as the population of 32 people. Thus, the sampling technique used in this study was in the form of saturated sampling (census). Meanwhile, the research method used in this study is included in quantitative research, with data processing and analysis techniques in the form of multiple regression analysis. A brief conclusion from the results of this study shows that partially the quality of work life and work environment do not show a significant effect on employee performance, while organizational communication has a significant effect on employee performance. Meanwhile, organizational communication, quality of work life, and work environment simultaneously have a significant effect on employee performance. |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:n7sjk |
| By: | Alam, Mahim; Kabir, Janesar; Rajia, Sultana; Sen, Topon |
| Abstract: | This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the various economic and social determinants that have shaped Bangladesh's developmental journey. It traces the country's evolution, from its pre-independence struggles to its post-independence recovery, resilience, and eventual emergence as a development success story. The study investigates Bangladesh’s transformation from a war-torn, least-developed country into a rapidly growing middle-income economy, emphasizing key elements such as the macroeconomic policy framework, trade and investment environment, agricultural technology adoption, and remittance inflows. The paper also examines demographic shifts, education, healthcare, gender dynamics, and urbanization's effects on social transformation. Additionally, the study highlights ongoing challenges, including poverty, inequality, environmental sustainability, and governance, alongside the need for technological innovation. Through this comprehensive exploration, the paper aims to identify the policies that facilitated Bangladesh's past growth and those necessary to sustain and enhance future progress. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh; History; Growth; Social Progress |
| JEL: | A1 A14 A2 B0 E0 E3 F1 F2 N1 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121999 |
| By: | Günther, Maria; Höcker, Martin Christian; Pfnür, Andreas |
| Abstract: | In the current dynamic business environment, companies are faced with a wide range of economic and social changes. Through the ongoing war for talent, employer branding is becoming increasingly relevant for companies to attract and retain employees. Simultaneously, the change in social values leads to sustainability becoming a decisive criterion for many employees when choosing their employer. In response to these changes, many companies are focusing on a sustainability-oriented employer brand. Corporate real estate (CRE) can contribute to the employer branding success by meeting the employee’s sustainability requirements and communicating the sustainability-oriented employer brand. However, the increasing pluralisation of social values means that the sustainability orientations and employee requirements can differ greatly from one another. Therefore, companies and their corporate real estate management (CREM) must know their employer brand target group and which sustainability requirements they place on CRE. The aim of the present study is to analyse these real estate-related sustainability requirements of employees. By examining the relevance of the respective sustainability dimensions (ecological, economic, social) from the employees' perspective, a "fit" between employee requirements and CRE can be established in order to contribute to successful employer branding. This study analyses survey data from N = 937 German office workers. Hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to identify employee groups and their assessment of the relevance of the sustainability dimensions in the real estate context. The cluster analysis reveals a general importance of all three sustainability dimensions for the identified employee groups. However, user satisfaction and, thus, social sustainability are rated highest for all identified groups. The results suggest that the perception of sustainability-related impacts of office properties has a decisive influence on the employees' assessment. Thus, CREM can positively influence the perception of the company's real estate as well as the company itself through sustainable action. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149745 |
| By: | Elias Albagli; Luis Ceballos; Sebastian Claro; Damian Romero |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the behavior of the UIP relationship around monetary policy and global uncertainty shocks using event studies. We find that the covariance between exchange rate movements and changes in long-term yield differentials is conditional on the nature of shocks. A model of partial arbitrage between domestic and US bond markets predicts that tighter US monetary policy appreciates the dollar while increasing US yields relative to domestic bonds, a response that is consistent with UIP forces, while global uncertainty shocks appreciate the dollar while raising domestic yields relative to US bonds, exacerbating the widely documented UIP violation. The empirical analysis supports these mechanisms, specially for developed economies. For emerging economies, both relationships are weaker, consistent with more pervasive currency stabilization policies that mute the FX response at the expense of higher volatility in longer yields. Our results suggest a more nuanced interpretation of the unconditional failure of the UIP. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1007 |
| By: | Rachid Touil (Université d'Oran 2 Mohamed Ben Ahmed [Oran]); Ouyahia Zoubida (Université d'Oran 2 Mohamed Ben Ahmed [Oran]) |
| Abstract: | Our study aims to know the CSR practices of the first company in Africa, SONATRACH, we opted for a semi-directive interview with three senior executives who answered economic questions, questions relating to the company's internal and external society, and questions relating to environmental issues. The results show that SONATRACH's responsible practices are a corporate citizen par excellence, the company opts for a responsible policy that applies international standards of behavior, ethics, and the environment, which makes this company a model for any other large company. |
| Keywords: | Social responsibility Environment Social Iso26000. JEL Classification Codes: Q56 M14, Social responsibility, Environment, Social, Iso26000. JEL Classification Codes: Q56, M14 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680588 |
| By: | Mingpu Ma |
| Abstract: | In the field of fresh produce retail, vegetables generally have a relatively limited shelf life, and their quality deteriorates with time. Most vegetable varieties, if not sold on the day of delivery, become difficult to sell the following day. Therefore, retailers usually perform daily quantitative replenishment based on historical sales data and demand conditions. Vegetable pricing typically uses a "cost-plus pricing" method, with retailers often discounting products affected by transportation loss and quality decline. In this context, reliable market demand analysis is crucial as it directly impacts replenishment and pricing decisions. Given the limited retail space, a rational sales mix becomes essential. This paper first uses data analysis and visualization techniques to examine the distribution patterns and interrelationships of vegetable sales quantities by category and individual item, based on provided data on vegetable types, sales records, wholesale prices, and recent loss rates. Next, it constructs a functional relationship between total sales volume and cost-plus pricing for vegetable categories, forecasts future wholesale prices using the ARIMA model, and establishes a sales profit function and constraints. A nonlinear programming model is then developed and solved to provide daily replenishment quantities and pricing strategies for each vegetable category for the upcoming week. Further, we optimize the profit function and constraints based on the actual sales conditions and requirements, providing replenishment quantities and pricing strategies for individual items on July 1 to maximize retail profit. Finally, to better formulate replenishment and pricing decisions for vegetable products, we discuss and forecast the data that retailers need to collect and analyses how the collected data can be applied to the above issues. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.09065 |
| By: | Rademacher, Philip |
| Abstract: | This paper applies machine learning to forecast business cycles in the German economy using a high-dimensional dataset with 73 indicators, primarily from the OECD Main Economic Indicator Database, covering a time period from 1973 to 2023. Sequential Floating Forward Selection (SFFS) is used to select the most relevant indicators and build compact, explainable, and performant models. Therefore, regularized regression models (LASSO, Ridge) and tree-based classification models (Random Forest, and Logit Boost) are used as challenger models to outperform a probit model containing the term spread as a predictor. All models are trained on data from 1973-2006 and evaluated on a hold-out-sample starting in 2006. The study reveals that fewer indicators are necessary to model recessions. Models built with SFFS have a maximum of eleven indicators. Furthermore, the study setting shows that many indicators are stable across time and business cycles. Machine learning models prove particularly effective in predicting recessions during periods of quantitative easing, when the predictive power of the term spread diminishes. The findings contribute to the ongoing discussion on the use of machine learning in economic forecasting, especially in the context of limited and imbalanced data. |
| Keywords: | Business Cycles, Recession, Forecasting, Machine Learning |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:303050 |
| By: | Sophia Baum (Complexity Science Hub Vienna); Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS; Complexity Science Hub Vienna) |
| Abstract: | India's proposed rice export restrictions, potentially affecting 40% of the global rice supply, may have severe consequences for several African and Middle Eastern countries. Projected losses of up to 304 kg per capita, as seen in the case of Djibouti, pose a significant threat to food security. The indirect effects through production and further trade can impact the availability of a range of secondary products such as meat, eggs, sweeteners, and alcohol. For example, Liberia’s losses over secondary products, excluding rice itself, accumulate to 5.2 kg per capita. While a diverse portfolio of import sources and domestic production can mitigate these losses to a certain extent, it cannot completely eliminate them. |
| Keywords: | Food Security, Rice Embargo, India, Global Trade, African Countries, Middle Eastern Countries, Secondary Products, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:asciis:001 |
| By: | Francesco G. Caloia (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Kees van Ginkel (Deltares Delft); David-Jan Jansen (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We study whether floods can affect financial stability through a credit risk channel. Our focus is on the Netherlands, a country situated partly below sea level, where insurance policies exclude property damages caused by some types of floods. Using geocoded data for close to EUR 650 billion in real estate exposures, we consider possible implications of such floods for bank capital. For a set of 38 adverse scenarios, we estimate that flood-related property damages lead to capital declines that mostly range between 30 and 50 basis points. We highlight how starting-point loan-to-value ratios are one important driver of capital impacts. Our estimates focus on property damages as the main transmission channel and are also subject to a number of assumptions. If climate change continues, more frequent floods or flood-related macrofinancial disruptions may have stronger implications for financial stability than our estimates so far indicate. |
| Keywords: | floods, financial stability, real estate, credit risk, climate change |
| JEL: | G21 Q54 R30 |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230083 |
| By: | Andrey Itkin; Yerkin Kitapbayev |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a semi-analytical approach to pricing options on SOFR futures where the underlying SOFR follows a time-dependent CEV model. By definition, these options change their type at the beginning of the reference period: before this time, this is an American option written on a SOFR forward price as an underlying, and after this point, this is an arithmetic Asian option with an American style exercise written on the daily SOFR rates. We develop a new version of the GIT method and solve both problems semi-analytically, obtaining the option price, the exercise boundary, and the option Greeks. This work is intended to address the concern that the transfer from LIBOR to SOFR has resulted in a situation in which the options of the key money market (i.e., futures on the reference rate) are options without any pricing model available. Therefore, the trading in options on 3M SOFR futures currently ends before their reference quarter starts, to eliminate the final metamorphosis into exotic options. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.04903 |
| By: | Victoria Dimond (Center for Global Development); Roland Rajah (Lowy Institute); Georgia Hammersley (Lowy Institute) |
| Abstract: | The World Bank’s concessional lending arm, the International Development Association (IDA), provides significant assistance to small states for fostering long-term development and responding to climate change. Around half of all small states have access to IDA. While only 3 percent of IDA’s resources go to small states, these countries comprise nearly a third of IDA-eligible countries. IDA plays a large role in the external financing of these countries, making up a third of official development assistance. The IDA Small States Exception plays a critical function in providing these countries access to IDA, and we argue accounts for the climate vulnerability faced by small states compared to alternative proposals being explored. We show that small states use IDA for adaptation to a greater extent than non-small states and, given large unmet financing needs, discuss how IDA might scale up its adaptation finance to these countries. We evaluate recent World Bank initiatives to scale up disaster finance and conclude with a discussion of key aspects for small states within the World Bank’s SimplifIDA reforms. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:335 |
| By: | Battaglia, Fabio |
| Abstract: | Gross domestic product (GDP) is frequently used as a proxy for well-being. Such use of GDP is problematic for many reasons, for GDP excludes activities that contribute to well-being and includes others that have a negative impact instead. As a result, a vast array of metrics has been developed to complement or replace it and put well-being at the heart of policymaking. Nonetheless, previous research has shown that their use and impact on policymaking has been limited. This article examines the use and impact of well-being metrics according to their own developers and intended users in the crucial cases of Scotland and Italy, focusing specifically on the two countries' official well-being frameworks. Despite being at the forefront of the well-being debate, both countries have never been studied in this regard before. This article fills this gap, collating views from more than 100 stakeholders, including statisticians, members of interest groups, policymakers and journalists. Findings show that the vast majority of informants could not cite any examples of cases in which either framework impacted on policymaking, or in which they themselves had used these. In some cases, this was due to them not being aware of what such frameworks were in the first place. Those who could identify some examples were those who were or used to be part of the government. Examples would, however, tend to be vague, in some instances remarkable yet merely anecdotal, and still in others the result of an ‘ex-post rationalisation’. |
| Keywords: | GDP; Italy; policymaking; Scotland; use and impact of frameworks; well-being |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124638 |
| By: | Umar Isah, Yahaya |
| Abstract: | The study investigates effect of monetary policy variables on performance of prices of stock in Nigeria. The study covered the period 1986 –2022. Data were generated from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2023 edition. The method of data analyses used are ARDL technique as All Share Index (ASI) was used to measure stock price, while explanatory variables included inflation rate (INF), Broad money supply (M2), Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and Real exchange rate (REXR). The ARDL bound test result indicates a long run association between monetary policy variables and stock prices in Nigeria. The long run estimates shows that only real exchange rate has significant effect on stock prices further findings reveal that monetary policy rate has significant impact on prices in stock market. The findings inform the conclusion that most monetary policy variables do not create necessary directions in market prices in Nigeria and recommends that the Nigerian stock market cannot yet be regarded as good policy monetary policy channel in Nigeria as the market is yet to absorb monetary policy impulses to an extent that monetary policy tools and instruments may significantly influence its direction and development. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; stock market prices; Exchange rate; Money supply; ARDL |
| JEL: | G18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122083 |
| By: | Shin, Sunkyung; Park, Joo-Yeun |
| Abstract: | The development of Metaverse technology is transforming our lives by shifting our daily activities from the offline to the online world. Metaverse has begun to be recognized as a key industry and future technology by leading the onlineization of daily life that is impossible in reality due to the disaster situation of COVID-19. Metaverse, which is based on the meaning of the expansion and extension of the physical world to the virtual world, is opening a new chapter in human communication and is recognized as a space with new possibilities (Lee et al., 2021). However, the new opportunities and possibilities offered by Metaverse are accompanied by both the positive functions and effects that were expected and targeted in the development and introduction of early metaverse, as well as the unintended negative functions and effects (Dwivedi et al., 2023). In other words, from a future perspective, Metaverse is a revolutionary technology that will change our living environment, and it is quickly permeating our daily lives more than any other technology, but the side effects associated with it are also quickly expanding their influence into our lives. As the industrial importance of the Metaverse has increased, Metaverse technology has been applied to various fields, and new services and platforms based on the Metaverse have emerged, and the number of users has also increased rapidly (Barrera & Shah, 2023). As a result of this situation, the influence of the Metaverse has expanded beyond the industrial dimension to social influence such as individuals and society. In particular, the innovative characteristics of the Metaverse, which are different from existing technologies, have allowed users to experience new side effects that they have never experienced before, and have even expanded to the form of social conflict. These side effects of using the Metaverse are presented as a new challenge and task that must be overcome for the development and future of the Metaverse industry. In response to this situation, this study starts from a critical perspective on the fact that previous studies on Metaverse technology and services have focused too much on the technical aspects and have been discussed only from an optimistic point of view (Bogicevic et al., 2021; Book, 2004; Flavián et al., 2019). In particular, just as all digital media technologies and services have a double-edged sword, the Metaverse also has a double-edged sword, and behind its positive effects lie the risks of negative effects. In this study, we aim to identify and address the risks and threats inherent in Metaverse technologies and services, and to specify and categorize the risks that arise from the use of Metaverse technologies and services, in the context of extending digital risk research and initiating Metaverse risk research. In addition, this study aims to conduct an empirical study on the experiences and perceptions of users who actually use Metaverse technologies and services regarding the risks associated with the use of Metaverse technologies and services. Therefore, this study, considering the situation that instability exists due to the spread and use of the Metaverse, but sufficient discussion has not been made on this, intends to discuss the Metaverse risk from a comprehensive perspective for the stable use and spread of the Metaverse. Starting with this, we aim to establish a theoretical foundation that can continue to expand Metaverse research in the future. |
| Keywords: | Metaverse, Extended reality, Virtual environments, Digital Risk |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302464 |
| By: | Jörg Drechsler; James Bailie |
| Abstract: | The concept of differential privacy (DP) has gained substantial attention in recent years, most notably since the U.S. Census Bureau announced the adoption of the concept for its 2020 Decennial Census. However, despite its attractive theoretical properties, implementing DP in practice remains challenging, especially when it comes to survey data. In this paper we present some results from an ongoing project funded by the U.S. Census Bureau that is exploring the possibilities and limitations of DP for survey data. Specifically, we identify five aspects that need to be considered when adopting DP in the survey context: the multi-staged nature of data production; the limited privacy amplification from complex sampling designs; the implications of survey-weighted estimates; the weighting adjustments for nonresponse and other data deficiencies, and the imputation of missing values. We summarize the project’s key findings with respect to each of these aspects and also discuss some of the challenges that still need to be addressed before DP could become the new data protection standard at statistical agencies. |
| JEL: | C42 C81 C83 D82 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32905 |
| By: | Anthony Harding; Juan Moreno-Cruz |
| Abstract: | With the rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence, there are expectations for a proportional expansion of economic activity due to increased productivity, and with it energy consumption and its associated environmental consequences like carbon dioxide emissions. Here, we combine data on economic activity, with early estimates of likely adoption of AI across occupations and industries, to estimate the increase in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions at the industry level and in aggregate for the US economy. At the industry level, energy use can increase between 0 and 12 PJ per year, while emissions increase between 47 tCO$_2$ and 272 ktCO$_2$. Aggregating across industries in the US economy, this totals an increase in energy consumption of 28 PJ per year, or around 0.03% of energy use per year in the US. We find this translates to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 896 ktCO$_2$ per year, or around 0.02% of the CO$_2$ emissions per year in the US. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.06626 |
| By: | Titouche Souhila (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes); Arkoub Nabila (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes) |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy in Algeria aims to control money supply to stimulate economic growth. This study examines the role of monetary policy tools in achieving economic growth from 1990 to 2020, focusing on the impact of Law 90-10. The findings suggest that monetary policy has had limited success in boosting growth due to the economy's heavy dependence on oil revenue for financing development projects. Despite efforts in implementing reforms and developmental schemes, desired growth rates have not been achieved. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy economic growth money supply code of money and credit JEL Classification Codes: E52 E63 F43 O23 O40 The Theoretical Framework of Economic Growth. Third Axis: The Reality, Monetary policy, economic growth, money supply, code of money and credit JEL Classification Codes: E52, E63, F43, O23, O40 The Theoretical Framework of Economic Growth. Third Axis: The Reality |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680589 |
| By: | Chetan Ghate (Indian Statistical Institute – Delhi); Kenneth Kletzer (University of California); Mahima Yadav (Indian Statistical Institute – Delhi) |
| Abstract: | India accumulated a sizable stock of foreign reserves over the past two decades, in common with many other emerging economies. Its current reserves comfortably surpass conventional thresholds for adequacy used by the International Monetary Fund and others. An assessment of whether the stock of reserves is appropriate should depend on an evaluation of the benefits and costs of reserves looking forward. Reserves provide self-insurance against sudden financial outflows by non-resident investors or resident savers and liquidity for managing exchange rates. While India’s reserves appear to be ample for meeting both these needs, additional reserves can reduce vulnerability to capital flow reversals that can be crisis inducing. The empirical analysis of India’s external portfolio capital flows finds that reserves lower outflows in the event of global financial distress at the margin. Reserve holdings reduce the volatility of portfolio debt flows in response to relative policy interest rate shocks. The results indicate that additions to reserves reduce the economy’s exposure to global financial risk. The precautionary benefits of reserves could well increase as India becomes further integrated to international financial markets. Estimates of the costs of holding reserves give evidence that increases in the reserves to output ratio reduce the risk premium on reserves, so that the sovereign interest rate spread overestimates the marginal cost of reserves. |
| Keywords: | Foreign exchange reserves, foreign portfolio flows, precautionary reserves, global financial shocks. |
| JEL: | F31 F32 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:168 |
| By: | Nila Warda; Abdullah Faqih; Asep Kurniawan; Dimitri Swasthika Nurshadrina; Dyan Widyaningsih; Sylvia Andriyani Kusumandari |
| Keywords: | indigenous Papuans, adaptive social protection, transformative livelihood development, multidimensional vulnerability, Papua Special Autonomy Law |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:4144 |
| By: | Klebaner, Samuel |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to demonstrate that the “Corporate Welfare” policies are embedded in a complex, dynamic and unstable mode of regulation. Based on qualitative and quantitative evidences from France since the 2008 financial crisis, we identify the five canonical institutional forms derived from the Régulation Theory that are coherent with industrial policies in favour of corporation without any counterparts. We consider that the deindustrialisation, the wage moderation, the fragmentation of national value chains is at the beginning of a race to the bottom of the public policy to compensate the profit loss. Behind the transfer of funds, we show that there is also a transfer of power to corporations, especially on the social welfare system. Finally, we will consider that this system is compatible as long as public debt creditors accepts to finance the difference between the quick transfers to corporations and the slow reduction of public expenditures, and second, that household have political and financial capacity to support this system. |
| Keywords: | Régulation ; Corporate welfare ; France |
| JEL: | B52 L53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121965 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Competition authorities have developed various tools to detect cartels and substantiate the basis for opening investigations. Ex officio investigations, meaning investigations initiated by the authorities themselves, are derived from detection tools that require a higher level of proactivity from the agency, for instance, industry monitoring and cartel screenings. New technologies such as artificial intelligence also provide competition authorities with greater opportunities to improve their detection tools. This paper provides an overview of detection tools to launch ex officio cartel investigations, including recent trends and experiences from Latin America and the Caribbean. It concludes by highlighting the need for competition authorities to implement a variety of approaches to complement one another and enhance cartel detection. |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaac:311-en |
| By: | Takuma Okura |
| Abstract: | In Terao [24], Hiroaki Terao defined and studied "admissible map", which is a generalization of "social welfare function" in the context of hyperplane arrangements. Using this, he proved a generalized Arrow's Impossibility Theorem using combinatorial arguments. This paper provides another proof of this generalized Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, using the idea of algebraic topology. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.14263 |
| By: | Ewan McGaughey |
| Abstract: | How has our economic constitutional order developed, and which laws make our economy democratic? Democracy in politics is familiar and starts with ‘one person, one vote’, but economic democracy is less familiar. In its ideal, it means ‘three stakeholders, one voice’. Workers, investors, and service-users make different contribution types in the economy, so rules to give them voice differ and are still evolving. This paper gives a brief history of how economic democracy developed, the evolving theories, and practices for democratic workplaces, capital, and public enterprise. It then unpacks the laws that make it. First, a board of directors will answer to an enterprise’s stakeholders, not simply appointing itself via so called ‘independent’ directors. Second, workers elect at least one-third or properly one-half of a board of directors, rather than shareholders monopolising all votes, and worker cooperatives are encouraged. Third, all capital fund directors, whether pensions or mutuals, are majority-elected by beneficiaries, and they set the shareholder voting policies, not allowing asset managers or banks to vote on other people’s money in what they deem to be the interests of the ultimate investor. Fourth, in public enterprises, where private competition fails and consumers cannot truly ‘vote with their feet’, service-users hold voting rights for representatives on the board, rather than appointments being monopolised by the state or board incumbents. These norms are spreading, and overcoming evidence-free theories that excuse illegitimate corporate power. |
| Keywords: | Economy, democracy, labour, capital, public services, enterprise, vote |
| JEL: | K0 K11 H40 K22 K23 K31 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp539 |
| By: | AUTERI Davide (European Commission - JRC); ATTARDO Carmelo (European Commission - JRC); BERZI Matteo (European Commission - JRC); DORATI Chiara (European Commission - JRC); ALBINOLA Federico; BAGGIO Lara; BUCCIARELLI Giuseppe; BUSSOLARI Ioris; DIJKSTRA Lewis (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Quantitative indicators at the local level play an increasingly important role in the formulation and evaluation of regional policies. Regional statistical indicators are available from several sources, but comparability of their time-series is often affected by breaks caused by boundary changes (split or merge of regions) that modify the shape of the concerned areas over time. ARDECO (Annual Regional Database of the European Commission) aims to offer full comparability of long and harmonised time-series of demographic and socio-economic variables at the regional and sub-regional level. ARDECO is released on a quarterly basis, with two major releases in correspondence of the public availability of the AMECO Spring (May) and Autumn (November) economic forecasts. The two major releases are complemented by a release in March, which includes the annual update of regional accounts from Eurostat, and by an interim release during the summer. In case of need, minor versions are also released at other times of the year. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202402 |
| By: | Di Wu |
| Abstract: | In the context of financial credit risk evaluation, the fairness of machine learning models has become a critical concern, especially given the potential for biased predictions that disproportionately affect certain demographic groups. This study investigates the impact of data preprocessing, with a specific focus on Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), on the fairness and performance of probability of default models. Using a comprehensive dataset sourced from Kaggle, various preprocessing techniques, including SVD, were applied to assess their effect on model accuracy, discriminatory power, and fairness. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.15452 |
| By: | Ray, Soumyajit; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Bhanjdeo, Arundhita; Heckert, Jessica |
| Abstract: | Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs)—farmer collectives, often legally registered - can mitigate some of the constraints smallholder farmers face by improving their access to extension, services, and markets, especially for women. We evaluate the effects of a set of interventions delivered through women-only FPOs in Jharkhand, India, using a panel of 1200 households and a difference-in-difference model with nearest neighbor matching. A complementary qualitative study in the same areas helps triangulate and interpret our findings. The interventions aimed to improve agricultural productivity by coordinating production and improving access to services, while also providing gender sensitization trainings to FPO leaders and members. We collect household data on asset ownership and agricultural outcomes and individual data on women’s and men’s empowerment using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI). Our results for asset ownership, land cultivated, cropping intensity, and per acre yields, revenues or costs are statistically insignificant. Effects on men’s and women's empowerment are mixed. While we see positive effects on women’s decisionmaking, asset ownership, control over income and attitudes towards intimate partner violence, the program is associated with an increase in workload and a reduction in active group membership for both men and women. Men appear to cede control over resources and decisionmaking to other household members. Additional analyses suggest that while some effects can occur in the short-term, others take time to accrue. FPO based interventions that aim to empower women or other marginalized groups likely require sustained investments over multiple years and will need to go beyond improving FPO functioning and increasing women’s participation to transforming social norms. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; farmers organizations; cooperatives; markets; prices; yields; empowerment; smallholders; women; gender; India; Asia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2267 |
| By: | Moramarco, Domenico; Brunori, Paolo; Salas-Rojo, Pedro |
| Abstract: | In this paper we discuss some limitations of using survey data to measure inequality of opportunity. First, we highlight a link between the two fundamental principles of the theory of equal opportunities – compensation and reward – and the concepts of power and confidence levels in hypothesis testing. This connection can be used to address, for example, whether a sample has sufficient observations to appropriately measure inequality of opportunity. Second, we propose a set of tools to normatively assess inequality of opportunity estimates in any type partition. We apply our proposal to Conditional Inference Trees, a machine learning technique that has received growing attention in the literature. Finally, guided by such tools, we suggest that standard tree-based partitions can be manipulated to reduce the risk of compensation and reward principles. Our methodological contribution is complemented with an application using a quasi-administrative sample of Italian PhD graduates. We find a substantial level of labor income inequality among two cohorts of PhD graduates (2012 and 2014), with a significant portion explained by circumstances beyond their control. |
| Keywords: | equality of opportunity; machine learning; PhD graduates; compensation; reward |
| JEL: | C30 D31 D63 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125442 |
| By: | Antoni, Manfred; Gerner, Hans-Dieter; Jäckle, Robert; Schwarz, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Internships are an important and often mandatory part of academic education. They offer valuable insights into the labor market but can also expose students to negative aspects of the working world, such as gender pay disparities. Our paper provides first evidence of a gender pay gap in mandatory internships, with women earning up to 7% less per hour than men. Notably, this gap is not due to women choosing higher-quality internships over higher pay. Further analyses show that the internship pay gap is similar in magnitude to the labor market entry wage gap among graduates. We discuss potential mechanisms by which the internship pay gap may contribute to the graduation wage gap and present empirical evidence to support this. |
| Keywords: | Gender Pay Gap, Internship, Higher Education |
| JEL: | I23 J24 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122018 |
| By: | Howell, Bronwyn; Potgieter, Petrus H. |
| Abstract: | The services that run on telecommunications providers' infrastructure have evolved from essential to the day-to-day functioning to hyper critical to the minute-by-minute functioning of modern society. Telecommunications firms have however been increasingly exposed to competition and diminishing profitability. In order to face this challenge, it is essential to understand the micro-economic realities of the interaction between content providers and connectivity access providers. In this paper, we unravel options and discuss the insights revealed by micro-economic modeling of the interaction between a retailer of online content and a broadband provider. We show that heterogeneity among consumers leads to heterogeneous outcomes for the firms even where average trends are clear. One of the main results is that the absence of commercial cooperation between the content and the broadband provider delivers bad outcomes in almost all cases. The economic theory underlying the analysis is consumer willingness-to-pay and the resulting economic surplus (often, Marshallian surplus) comprising of the consumer surplus and the producer surplus. It is assumed that the content product increases the cost of delivery of the broadband product due to increased network use. The parameters that are variable are (a) the correlation between consumer valuations of the two products and (b) the additional cost of broadband provision for users of the content product. The paper presents the results of extensive simulation models for different distributions of consumer valuations and incremental additional cost for content product users. Our discrete modelling approach differs from the more common approach of assuming a continuum of consumers (i.e. not only infinitely many but uncountably infinitely many!) and solving for an optimal expected outcome. Our first step is to solve the problem for a finite number of customers and a single allocation valuations (drawn from a specified distribution). This allows one to see what might happen in concrete cases. We then do this many times and compute averages which approximates the expected outcome in the continuum case, of course. This approach allows us to identify more detail than an expected outcome does. We would like to remind the reader than the expected outcome from the roll of a die is 31 2 which is never an actual outcome. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302480 |
| By: | Adjlane Sabah (CRSTRA - Center for Scientific and Technical Research on Arid Regions); Khiari Reguia (CRSTRA - Center for Scientific and Technical Research on Arid Regions); Mokhnane Tarek (CRSTRA - Center for Scientific and Technical Research on Arid Regions) |
| Abstract: | Algeria is seeking to achieve sustainable agricultural development due to its increasing effects in providing the growing food needs of the population and providing job opportunities for current and future generations. .The agricultural sector is the main source of food and also contributes to providing inputs for many industries that depend mainly on agricultural products. It is also a source of hard currency through its ability to achieve a surplus for export, in addition to creating new job opportunities through various projects.The aim of this study is to introduce the state of Oued Souf is rich in natural, human and water resources. It is especially known for producing some agricultural crops such as potatoes, wheat, barley, peanuts and more. It also aims at identifying the most important challenges it faces so that we can suggest a number of recommendations that contribute to addressing these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Desert agriculture sustainable agricultural development constituents obstacles JEL Classification Codes: Q1 Q01, Desert agriculture, sustainable agricultural development, constituents, obstacles JEL Classification Codes: Q1, Q01 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684570 |
| By: | Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre (Sabanci University); Akyol, Pelin (Bilkent University); Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. (Sabanci University); Demirci, Murat (Koc University); Kirdar, Murat Güray (Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the intergenerational effects of the 1997 compulsory schooling reform in Turkey, which extended compulsory schooling from five to eight years, on the developmental outcomes of children aged 36 to 59 months. We draw upon data from the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, which features a comprehensive module on early childhood development (ECD), and estimate the impact of mothers' exposure to education reform using RDD. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in maternal educational attainment and corresponding enhancements in children's readiness to learn. Exploring the underlying mechanisms, we find a notable expansion in the number and variety of activities parents, especially fathers, engage in with their children. In a further examination of parental outcomes, we find evidence pointing to narrower educational and age disparities between partners, suggesting an improvement in mothers' agency—aligned with the heightened engagement of fathers with their children. Despite the typical emphasis on mothers in ECD research, our study indicates a significant enhancement in fathers' involvement with their children accompanied by improvement in children's cognitive outcomes. |
| Keywords: | compulsory education, early child development, parental investment, mother's agency, cognitive skills |
| JEL: | H52 I26 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17249 |
| By: | Lee, Seungmin; Abay, Kibrom A.; Barrett, Christopher B.; Hoddinott, John F. |
| Abstract: | Resilience measurement has received substantial attention over the past decade or so. Existing measures, however, relate resilience to a single well-being indicator. This may be problematic in contexts where households face deprivations in multiple dimensions. We explore how sensitive estimates of household-level resilience are to the specific well-being indicator used and show that measures are only weakly correlated across different, reasonable indicators based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings. We then introduce a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating the probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approach of Cissé and Barrett (2018) with the multidimensional poverty measurement method of Alkire and Foster (2011). Applying the new method to household panel data, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. |
| Keywords: | assets; consumption; dietary diversity; livestock; nutrition; poverty; resilience; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2268 |
| By: | Moisés Kopper |
| Abstract: | The article explores the ways in which the opening of new imaginative horizons is linked to the appropriation and consumption of the house among beneficiaries of public housing in Brazil. It argues for a total and processual notion of the home: simultaneously a political, symbolic, and affective construction in flux. It also suggests that the economic and temporal investments beneficiaries make while availing themselves of and consuming the house shape new ethical, material, and stratifying sensibilities. These sensibilities coalesce around the quest for upward social mobility. The article tells the housing story of a family that moved, in 2014, from an informal settlement to a middle-class condominium in order to reconstruct, ethnographically, the connections between the built environment, its political and vital materialities, and the construction of subjective spaces for imagination and social mobility. |
| Abstract: | El artículo explora cómo la apertura de horizontes imaginativos del futuro está ligada a la apropiación y consumo de la casa propia entre los beneficiarios de las políticas de vivienda brasileñas. Aboga por una noción total y procesual de hogar: simultáneamente una construcción política, simbólica y afectiva en flujo. También se sugiere que las inversiones económicas y temporales que realizan los beneficiarios en la apropiación y consumo de la vivienda conforman una nueva sensibilidad ética, material y estratificadora que se consolida en torno a la búsqueda por movilidad socioeconómica ascendente. El artículo narra la trayectoria habitacional de una familia que se mudó, en 2014, de un asentamiento informal a un condominio de clase media para reconstituir, etnográficamente, los vínculos entre el espacio construido, sus materialidades políticas y vitales, y la construcción de espacios subjetivos de imaginación y movilidad social. |
| Abstract: | O artigo explora como a abertura de horizontes imaginativos de futuro se articula à apropriação e ao consumo da casa própria entre beneficiários de políticas habitacionais brasileiras. Argumenta-se por uma noção total e processual de casa: simultaneamente um constructo político, simbólico e afetivo em fluxo. Sugere-se ainda que os investimentos econômicos e temporais realizados por beneficiários na apropriação e consumo da casa compõem uma nova sensibilidade ética, material e estratificante que se consolida em torno da busca por mobilidade socioeconômica ascendente. O artigo conta a trajetória habitacional de uma família que se mudou, em 2014, de um assentamento informal para um condomínio de classe média para reconstituir, etnograficamente, os nexos entre o espaço construído, suas materialidades políticas e vitais, e a construção de espaços subjetivos de imaginação e mobilidade social. |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/377983 |
| By: | Schatto-Eckrodt, Tim; Frischlich, Lena (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Conspiracy theories are a social phenomenon that has been researched by several academic fields: From philosophy, historical and cultural science, to psychological research, conspiracy theories are and have been a topic of interest for many scholars. Taking a political communication perspective, this entry outlines the different approaches to define conspiracy theories and summarizes the current literature on the effects of conspiracy thinking on society. As the phenomenon of conspiracy theories is nowadays deeply connected to the networked dynamic of the social web, we also illustrate how conspiracy theories are spread, staged, and combatted in a digital, network media landscape. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:wt8v3 |
| By: | Engel, Julia F.; Nüß, Patrick; Rudolph, Meike; Schwarz, Julia |
| Abstract: | We conduct a computational replication of Atanasov et al. (2023). In total, our analysis covers three variations: we use the cleaned dataset provided in the replication package, we clean the original data ourselves, and finally we extend the dataset to encompass an additional three years of data using the webscraper provided by the authors. The additional data boosts the final observation count by approximately one-quarter. We find that the results are robust; the data in the replication package results in nearly the same estimates and an extension of the data and specifications reduces the effect size and statistical significance, but does not change the conclusions. We further conduct a wide range of robustness checks. While some estimates have smaller effect sizes and lower statistical significance, all results support the original findings. |
| Keywords: | Replication, Analysis of Collective Decision-Making, Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs, Gender Discrimination |
| JEL: | D7 J3 J7 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:151 |
| By: | Bita PUSPITASARI; Tomoki SEKIGUCHI |
| Abstract: | This study examines human resource management (HRM) practices in Continuous Employment Support Offices, Japan’s context of work integration social enterprise (WISE) which provides employment and training to people with disabilities (PwD). Investigation from an HRM perspective is relevant for the Offices' distinctive workforce while ensuring business profitability. Utilizing the constructivist grounded theory approach, interviews with 21 Offices across Japan were conducted. This study identifies key HRM practices: tasks/job design and assignment, sought specifications, recruitment, pay policy, and user mobility, which vary depending on the Office’s classification as either Type A (employment provider) or Type B (training provider) organization. This finding elucidates power dynamics between the Offices, the government, and PwD within the context of welfare service provision. Drawing from power-dependence relations, the subsequent analysis suggests the Office as a less powerful actor within the dyadic relations between the government and PwD. Offices employ a balancing operations mechanism to reduce this power disadvantage by regaining control and minimizing risk. The study contributes to the understanding of WISE by intersecting HRM practices and power-dependence relations and offering insights into Japan’s unique context. |
| Keywords: | human resource management, power-dependence relations, continuous employment support, work integration social enterprise, Japan |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-24-005 |
| By: | Carroll, Carlos; Noon, Barry; Masino, Susan; Noss, Reed F. |
| Abstract: | Effective conservation of old-growth ecosystems, along with their unique biodiversity and climate benefits, requires coordinated actions from the scale of individual trees to broad regions. The US government is currently developing a conservation strategy for old-growth forest on federal lands, and similar efforts are occurring globally as nations implement the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. An effective strategy must include elements at three spatiotemporal scales: immediate restrictions on harvest of old-growth and mature forests and old trees, standards to ensure management activities do not degrade old growth at the stand scale, and longer-term planning for old-growth restoration and recruitment across landscapes. Lessons from previous US forest policy, especially the Northwest Forest Plan, can inform efforts to strengthen each of these three components in the US old-growth conservation strategy. Ecosystem-based standards are needed to ensure protection of sufficient mature forest so that recruitment into the old-growth stage shifts ecosystems closer to historic proportions of old growth. In addition to clarifying existing goals related to ecological integrity, comprehensive old-growth policy must incorporate specific goals for recovering at-risk species based on empirical relationships across scales of biodiversity between forest habitat and species viability that are relevant across varied ecological contexts. Reversing extinction debt and ensuring long-term adaptation potential requires designation of large landscapes anchored by remaining old-growth stands, surrounded by areas managed for restoration of ecological integrity, native biodiversity, and ecosystem services including climate change mitigation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:c7fek |
| By: | Martin Grote; Jean-François Wen |
| Abstract: | Property taxes are often under-exploited sources of local public revenues. A broad-based tax, raised at modest rates, can potentially generate significantly higher revenues in many countries, and meet most of the costs of improved local public services. This note provides a practical guide to designing and implementing reforms to recurrent taxes on immoveable property and real estate transfer taxes. It addresses the fundamental policy choices regarding the property tax base and tax rate, and the key functions of the tax administration for managing collections – valuation, billing, and enforcement. The advice in the note stems from a review of the literature and insights gained from the experiences of the Fiscal Affairs Department in delivering capacity development on property taxes. It covers and updates some of the analytical work by Norregaard (2013) while providing granular advice on practical aspects of reforming property taxes. The note is motivated by the resource mobilization needs of developing countries, but the design considerations are also pertinent for advanced and emerging market economies seeking to increase the revenue productivity of property taxes. |
| Keywords: | property tax; recurrent tax; real estate; real property transfer tax; tax reform; implement property tax reform; property tax tax collection; revenue identity; property tax administration; property tax system; Tax administration core functions; Transaction tax; Estate tax; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfhtn:2024/006 |
| By: | Mircea V. Duca (Baia-Mare, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Democracy represents the engine of societal evolution from an economic and legal standpoint but with a profound impact on the psycho-emotional relationships between individuals engaged in the mechanisms of communal life. Inherent to human beings is only natural right, that ensemble of harmoniously related and innate principles to man, a system that finds its origin in the a priori space of ontological nature. The majority of constitutions pertaining to free states affirm democracy as the sole instrument capable of providing citizens with freedom of conscience, expression, opinion, and last but not least, the decency of life as the primary condition for lifelong education and cultural refinement. This article explores the intricate relationship between democracy, natural law, moral consciousness, and individual autonomy, emphasizing their interconnected roles in developing a just and equitable society. |
| Keywords: | democracy, natural law, positive law, society, religion, culture, education |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0370 |
| By: | Freak-Poli, Rosanne (Monash University); Jenkins, Stephen P. (London School of Economics); Shields, Michael A. (Monash University); Trinh, Trong-Anh (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Despite a substantial literature on the links between social relationships and mortality, the size of the relative risks from loneliness, social isolation, and living alone, remain controversial. Further research is therefore important given demographic changes meaning that more people are living alone, for longer, and with chronic health conditions. Using 19 waves of high-quality Australian longitudinal data we provide new evidence using multiple measures of social relationships, model specifications, and adjustments for confounding. We focus on chronic measures of (poor) social relationships and provide separate estimates by gender. We find that both functional and structural aspects of social relationships are independently strongly associated with all-cause mortality. We estimate a hazard ratio for loneliness of 1.41, which is greater for males (1.55) than females (1.24). These hazard ratios are larger than found for social isolation (1.19). We also find a strong relationship between being an active member of a club and reduced mortality risk, but no evidence that living alone is an independent risk factor. We provide useful comparisons with the mortality risks associated with smoking and household income. Overall, our findings suggest that interventions should focus on reducing both loneliness and social isolation, as well as encouraging active social participation. |
| Keywords: | mortality, social relationships, loneliness, social support, social isolation, club membership, living alone, smoking, income, survival analysis |
| JEL: | I14 I18 I31 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17274 |
| By: | Christian Brownlees; Gu{\dh}mundur Stef\'an Gu{\dh}mundsson; Yaping Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes bounds on the predictive performance of empirical risk minimization for principal component regression. Our analysis is nonparametric, in the sense that the relation between the prediction target and the predictors is not specified. In particular, we do not rely on the assumption that the prediction target is generated by a factor model. In our analysis we consider the cases in which the largest eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the predictors grow linearly in the number of predictors (strong signal regime) or sublinearly (weak signal regime). The main result of this paper shows that empirical risk minimization for principal component regression is consistent for prediction and, under appropriate conditions, it achieves optimal performance (up to a logarithmic factor) in both the strong and weak signal regimes. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.03606 |
| By: | Joao Guerreiro; Jonathon Hazell; Chen Lian; Christina Patterson |
| Abstract: | How costly is inflation to workers? Answers to this question have focused on the path of real wages during inflationary periods. We argue that workers must take costly actions (“conflict”) to have nominal wages catch up with inflation, meaning there are welfare costs even if real wages do not fall as inflation rises. We study a menu-cost style model, where workers choose whether to engage in conflict with employers to secure a wage increase. We show that, following a rise in inflation, wage catchup resulting from more frequent conflict does not raise welfare. Instead, the impact of inflation on worker welfare is determined by what we term “wage erosion”—how inflation would lower real wages if workers' conflict decisions did not respond to inflation. As a result, measuring welfare using observed wage growth understates the costs of inflation. We conduct a survey showing that workers are willing to sacrifice 1.75% of their wages to avoid conflict. Calibrating the model to the survey data, the aggregate costs of inflation incorporating conflict more than double the costs of inflation via falling real wages alone. |
| JEL: | E24 E31 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32956 |
| By: | Shengkun Wang; Taoran Ji; Linhan Wang; Yanshen Sun; Shang-Ching Liu; Amit Kumar; Chang-Tien Lu |
| Abstract: | The stock price prediction task holds a significant role in the financial domain and has been studied for a long time. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have brought new ways to improve these predictions. While recent financial large language models (FinLLMs) have shown considerable progress in financial NLP tasks compared to smaller pre-trained language models (PLMs), challenges persist in stock price forecasting. Firstly, effectively integrating the modalities of time series data and natural language to fully leverage these capabilities remains complex. Secondly, FinLLMs focus more on analysis and interpretability, which can overlook the essential features of time series data. Moreover, due to the abundance of false and redundant information in financial markets, models often produce less accurate predictions when faced with such input data. In this paper, we introduce StockTime, a novel LLM-based architecture designed specifically for stock price data. Unlike recent FinLLMs, StockTime is specifically designed for stock price time series data. It leverages the natural ability of LLMs to predict the next token by treating stock prices as consecutive tokens, extracting textual information such as stock correlations, statistical trends and timestamps directly from these stock prices. StockTime then integrates both textual and time series data into the embedding space. By fusing this multimodal data, StockTime effectively predicts stock prices across arbitrary look-back periods. Our experiments demonstrate that StockTime outperforms recent LLMs, as it gives more accurate predictions while reducing memory usage and runtime costs. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08281 |
| By: | Serdar Birinci; Kurt See |
| Abstract: | We digitize state-level and time-varying unemployment insurance (UI) laws on initial eligibility, payment amount, and payment duration and combine them with microdata on labor market outcomes to estimate UI eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level. We document how levels of income and wealth affect unemployment risk, eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates both upon job loss and over the course of unemployment spells. We evaluate whether these empirical findings are important for shaping UI policy design using a general equilibrium incomplete markets model combined with a frictional labor market that matches our empirical findings. We show that a nested alternative model that fails to match these findings yields a substantially less generous optimal UI policy compared to the baseline model. Our empirical results are also relevant for researchers estimating the effects of UI policy changes on labor market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | unemployment insurance; fiscal policy; household behavior; job search |
| JEL: | E24 H31 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98801 |
| By: | Michael Giegrich; Roel Oomen; Christoph Reisinger |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show how $K$-nearest neighbor ($K$-NN) resampling, an off-policy evaluation method proposed in \cite{giegrich2023k}, can be applied to simulate limit order book (LOB) markets and how it can be used to evaluate and calibrate trading strategies. Using historical LOB data, we demonstrate that our simulation method is capable of recreating realistic LOB dynamics and that synthetic trading within the simulation leads to a market impact in line with the corresponding literature. Compared to other statistical LOB simulation methods, our algorithm has theoretical convergence guarantees under general conditions, does not require optimization, is easy to implement and computationally efficient. Furthermore, we show that in a benchmark comparison our method outperforms a deep learning-based algorithm for several key statistics. In the context of a LOB with pro-rata type matching, we demonstrate how our algorithm can calibrate the size of limit orders for a liquidation strategy. Finally, we describe how $K$-NN resampling can be modified for choices of higher dimensional state spaces. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.06514 |
| By: | Doron Yeverechyahu; Raveesh Mayya; Gal Oestreicher-Singer |
| Abstract: | Generative AI (GenAI) has been shown to enhance individual productivity in a guided setting. While it is also likely to transform processes in a collaborative work setting, it is unclear what trajectory this transformation will follow. Collaborative environment is characterized by a blend of origination tasks that involve building something from scratch and iteration tasks that involve refining on others' work. Whether GenAI affects these two aspects of collaborative work and to what extent is an open empirical question. We study this question within the open-source development landscape, a prime example of collaborative innovation, where contributions are voluntary and unguided. Specifically, we focus on the launch of GitHub Copilot in October 2021 and leverage a natural experiment in which GitHub Copilot (a programming-focused LLM) selectively rolled out support for Python, but not for R. We observe a significant jump in overall contributions, suggesting that GenAI effectively augments collaborative innovation in an unguided setting. Interestingly, Copilot's launch increased maintenance-related contributions, which are mostly iterative tasks involving building on others' work, significantly more than code-development contributions, which are mostly origination tasks involving standalone contributions. This disparity was exacerbated in active projects with extensive coding activity, raising concerns that, as GenAI models improve to accommodate richer context, the gap between origination and iterative solutions may widen. We discuss practical and policy implications to incentivize high-value innovative solutions. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08379 |
| By: | Incerti, Trevor (Yale University); Miyano, Sayumi; Stanescu, Diana; Yamagishi, Hikaru |
| Abstract: | Political economists have long speculated about the effects of connections between bureaucracies and the private sector. However, data tracing flows of civil servants from the bureaucracy to the private sector remains rare. This article presents a new dataset, Amakudata, which contains individual-level data of virtually all Japanese bureaucrats retiring into positions outside of the bureaucracy from 2009 to 2019. We first present how the dataset was created and validated. Next, we describe what the data reveals about the revolving door in Japan and beyond, and show that some sectors may be larger hirers of government personnel than previously thought. We conclude by discussing how the data can be used to investigate empirical and causal questions in diverse subjects such as corruption and regulatory capture; procurement, pork, and government waste; bureaucratic representation; and international trade and investment. |
| Date: | 2024–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fqnkz |
| By: | Kory Kroft; Ismael Mourifi\'e; Atom Vayalinkal |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal effect of job training on wage rates in the presence of firm heterogeneity. When training affects worker sorting to firms, sample selection is no longer binary but is "multilayered". This paper extends the canonical Heckman (1979) sample selection model - which assumes selection is binary - to a setting where it is multilayered, and shows that in this setting Lee bounds set identifies a total effect that combines a weighted-average of the causal effect of job training on wage rates across firms with a weighted-average of the contrast in wages between different firms for a fixed level of training. Thus, Lee bounds set identifies a policy-relevant estimand only when firms pay homogeneous wages and/or when job training does not affect worker sorting across firms. We derive sharp closed-form bounds for the causal effect of job training on wage rates at each firm which leverage information on firm-specific wages. We illustrate our partial identification approach with an empirical application to the Job Corps Study. Results show that while conventional Lee bounds are strictly positive, our within-firm bounds include 0 showing that canonical Lee bounds may be capturing a pure sorting effect of job training. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.04589 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; João Jalles; Sofia Monteiro |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of geopolitical risk and global uncertainty on energy prices, conditioned by different exchange rate regimes, for 185 economies over the period 1980-2023. The central question is how uncertainty impacts energy prices and whether exchange rate flexibility mediates these effects. Using panel data techniques, including OLS and Panel VAR, we assess both demand and supply-side channels, exploring country-specific differences. Our key findings indicate that uncertainty shocks significantly raise energy prices, particularly in countries with flexible exchange rates, where currency depreciation amplifies global price fluctuations. Asymmetric results are found regarding emerging markets, with flexible exchange rates, which tend to have lower energy prices, while oil-exporting countries and OPEC members experience distinct pricing dynamics. These results underscore the importance of exchange rate policy choices in shaping energy market responses to global shocks. Policymakers may need to adopt complementary measures to manage the volatility arising from global uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk; World Uncertainty Index; Global Energy Markets; Exchange Rate Regimes; Asymmetric Effects. |
| JEL: | C23 E44 G32 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03442024 |
| By: | Ms. Paola Giuliano; Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo |
| Abstract: | A growing body of work has shown that aggregate shocks affect the formation of preferences and beliefs. This article reviews evidence from sociology, social psychology, and economics to assess the relevance of aggregate shocks, whether the period in which they are experienced matters, and whether they alter preferences and beliefs permanently. We review the literature on recessions, inflation experiences, trade shocks, and aggregate non-economic shocks including migrations, wars, terrorist attacks, pandemics, and natural disasters. For each aggregate shock, we discuss the main empirical methodologies, their limitations, and their comparability across studies, outlining possible mechanisms whenever available. A few conclusions emerge consistently across the reviewed papers. First, aggregate shocks impact many preferences and beliefs, including political preferences, risk attitudes, and trust in institutions. Second, the effect of shocks experienced during young adulthood is stronger and longer lasting. Third, negative aggregate economic shocks generally move preferences and beliefs to the right of the political spectrum, while the effects of non-economic adverse shocks are more heterogeneous and depend on the context. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/195 |
| By: | Souryabrata Mohapatra (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Sanjib Pohit (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | How can India leverage its potential and implement effective strategies to become a developed nation by 2047? In his 2022 Independence Day speech, the Prime Minister (PM) outlined an ambitious vision for transforming the nation into a developed country by 2047—‘Viksit Bharat (VB)’. It aims to reshape India into a technologically advanced, economically strong and socially inclusive nation. This paper delves into the various aspects of VB, examining the critical strategies and policies required to achieve this transformation. It highlights significant progress in green energy, infrastructure development and socio-economic programmes and discusses the necessary reforms to achieve Viksit Bharat and a $30 trillion economy. The goal of achieving a $30 trillion economy by 2047 is a cornerstone of the VB vision, encompassing a broad vision for holistic development, renovating India into a prosperous, inclusive and sustainable nation. The study explores India’s unique opportunities in the context of its demographic dividend, technological advancements and socioeconomic initiatives. By drawing insights from historical transformations, the paper presents a strategic roadmap for India, emphasising the importance of coordinated efforts across energy, infrastructure, agriculture, services and governance sectors. It underscores the interlinked nature of these initiatives and the vital role of governance, technology and economic growth in realising ‘India@2047’—India’s future on the occasion of its 100th anniversary of independence. This paper provides a comprehensive guide for policymakers, outlining the path to a prosperous and developed India. |
| Keywords: | : Viksit Bharat; Energy efficiency; Sustainable agriculture; Enhanced infrastructure; Inclusive service and governance |
| JEL: | O10 O22 R11 Q01 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:167 |
| By: | Giraldo, Carlos (Latin American Reserve Fund); Giraldo, Iader (Latin American Reserve Fund); Huertas, Cristian (Universidad Nacional de Colombia); Sánchez, Juan Camilo (Dirección de impuestos y aduanas nacionales) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of hedging practices among commodity-producing companies in Latin America. The extractive sector's significant economic importance in the region makes understanding these firms' hedging decisions highly relevant. The findings reveal several key insights. Firm size, leverage, and commodity prices are important factors consistent with prior research. Additionally, the region's exchange rate exposure means that firms' acquisition of US dollar-denominated debt is a significant determinant of their hedging activities, as well as the firms’ access to the international markets. Notably, the type of ownership also significantly impacts hedging, as state-owned firms are more likely to hedge to reduce volatility in their revenues for the case of oil-firms. In contrast to the limited research on Latin American extractive firms, an extensive literature has explored hedging strategies in developed countries' extractive companies. This study aims to address the gap by investigating the determinants of hedging practices among commodity-producing companies in Latin America. |
| Keywords: | hedging; risk management; derivatives; commodity-producing companies; |
| JEL: | C23 D81 G30 G32 Q02 |
| Date: | 2024–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000566:021196 |
| By: | Daniel, Lyrian; Lang, Michaela; Barlow, Cynthia; Phibbs, Peter; Baker, Emma; Hamilton, Ian |
| Abstract: | Housing that is in poor physical condition has direct negative health impacts for occupants, is more expensive to run and reduces Australia’s ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This research investigates what is needed to lift the quality of Australian housing to align with international standards so as to address problems associated with aged and ill-performing housing stock in both the owned and rented sectors. The research explores different strategies for improving housing through voluntary programs and mandatory legislation, and found: a national strategy to improve residential building quality should be developed mandatory disclosure of dwelling energy performance could improve how markets consider the performance of houses offered for sale or lease more appropriate accounting methods of the benefits provided by improved housing standards are needed. To improve the building quality of Australian housing stock, it is important to investigate how and why governments make policy about the quality of Australian housing stock. Change is difficult because of both the challenges of getting government attention and pressure from strong property industry lobbyists, but it is not impossible. One of the sharp lessons from the case studies is that having research evidence is not enough; change needs key elements such as building a convincing narrative to tell a plausible story of a social problem (including coverage of the evidence in the popular media) together with a ‘coalition of support’. A national strategy to improve residential building quality should be developed and include the following regulatory mechanisms: improved performance standards for new houses; mandatory disclosure of dwelling energy performance; and minimum housing standards for the rental sector. |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6592m |
| By: | Mauricio Calani; Lucas Rosso |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how differences in portfolio choice across households help explain the highly unequal wealth distribution seen in the data. It has been well documented that participation rates in investment in risky assets are substantially smaller than the ones predicted in standard models of portfolio choice. Also, both participation rates and risky shares are highly increasing in wealth. However, both features are usually absent in workhorse models of wealth accumulation. We introduce portfolio choice and adjustment frictions into an otherwise standard model of household saving behavior. Calibrating it to U.S. household-level data, we show that the model is able to provide a better fit of the wealth distribution while being consistent with well-known facts of households’ portfolio choices. In particular, the model explains roughly half of the gap between top wealth shares predicted by traditional models of wealth accumulation (e.g. Aiyagari, 1994) and the data. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1016 |
| By: | Uysal, Busye; Estrella, Ronny |
| Abstract: | While policymakers are beginning to address AI-generated content on social media, there remains a notable gap in regulatory approaches towards Virtual Influencers. The capability of Virtual Influencers to autonomously upload content presents significant challenges, especially in distinguishing between human and AI-generated content, which in turn affects user trust. To tackle this issue, this study proposes the implementation of disclosure flags specifically for content created by Virtual Influencers. This research involved a questionnaire administered to 189 Instagram users to explore how disclosure flags influence their perceptions and acceptance of Virtual Influencer's content. The findings reveal that although disclosure flags increase awareness, they do little to foster critical engagement with the content. The study emphasizes the importance of professional oversight and user-driven content moderation through disclosure flags to maintain the integrity of digital content. These insights are crucial for policymakers and platform designers working towards a transparent digital environment. The evident lack of transparency around Virtual Influencers highlights the urgent need for clearer regulatory frameworks. Therefore, this research advocates for comprehensive strategies that integrate these flags with broader educational and regulatory measures to enhance digital literacy and critical engagement among users. |
| Keywords: | Virtual Influencers, Social Robots, Social Media, Cognitive Dissonance, Affective Behavior, Disclosing Flags |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302466 |
| By: | Anna Josephson; Jeffrey D. Michler; Talip Kilic; Siobhan Murray |
| Abstract: | The availability of weather data from remotely sensed Earth observation (EO) data has reduced the cost of including weather variables in econometric models. Weather variables are common instrumental variables used to predict economic outcomes and serve as an input into modelling crop yields for rainfed agriculture. The use of EO data in econometric applications has only recently been met with a critical assessment of the suitability and quality of this data in economics. We quantify the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in EO data in the context of smallholder agricultural productivity. We find that different measurement methods from different EO sources: findings are not robust to the choice of EO dataset and outcomes are not simply affine transformations of one another. This begs caution on the part of researchers using these data and suggests that robustness checks should include testing alternative sources of EO data. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07506 |
| By: | Sonalde Desai (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Debasis Barik (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Pallavi Choudhuri (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi) |
| Abstract: | With a growing economy and declining poverty, India faces a curious challenge in providing a social safety net to its citizens. Using data from three rounds of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS), collected in 2004-5, 2011-12, and 2022-24, this paper shows that households face considerable transition in and out of poverty as the economy grows. Historically, India’s approach to social safety nets has involved identifying the poor and providing them with priority access to various social protection programmes that include both in-kind and cash assistance—however, the nature of poverty changes with economic growth. This churn in households’ economic circumstances makes it difficult to identify and target the poor precisely. Traditional approaches to identifying the poor through the provision of Below Poverty Line (BPL) cards, now dubbed priority cards, assume long-term stability of poverty and tend to focus on chronically poor households that usually come from poor regions or have enduring characteristics that predispose them to poverty (e.g., belonging to Scheduled Castes and Tribes). The IHDS data shows that with a decline in chronic poverty, transient poverty begins to dominate. This suggests that our approach to social protection must pay greater attention to circumstances of life that push people into poverty rather than circumstances of birth associated with social identity or region of birth. This paper discusses various approaches to providing safety nets and examines the experiences of some critical programs in reaching the poor. |
| Keywords: | Social Welfare |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:171 |
| By: | Claude DIEBOLT; Faustine Perrin |
| Abstract: | En octobre 2023, Claudia Goldin, professeure à l’Université de Harvard, a été récompensée par l’attribution du Prix Nobel de Sciences Économiques, en reconnaissance de ses contributions pionnières à l’économie, notamment pour son analyse approfondie de la place des femmes sur le marché du travail. Goldin a, en effet, exploré l’évolution du revenu et la participation des femmes au marché du travail dans la longue durée, mettant en évidence les causes de ces changements et les raisons de la persistance des inégalités entre hommes et femmes. Première femme titularisée au Département d’économie de Harvard et désormais première femme à remporter seule le Prix Nobel d’économie, son parcours illustre le franchissement des barrières académiques et l’élargissement des horizons. Ses recherches ont joué un rôle clé dans la reconnaissance et la valorisation du rôle des femmes dans le domaine économique, motivant ainsi une nouvelle génération de chercheurs à intégrer les dynamiques de genre et les perspectives à long terme dans leurs travaux. |
| Keywords: | Claudia Goldin, Nobel, inégalités de genre, cliométrie. |
| JEL: | J16 N3 J2 J7 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-36 |
| By: | Heidebrecht, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Digitalisation has developed into a central political issue of the 21st century. The European Union is championing its distinctive “human-centric” model for the digital sphere amid growing concerns about disinformation, surveillance and excessive market power. Facing external challenges and perceived lagging in the digital economy has created a need to promote digitalisation in the EU, leading to policy changes and a redefined approach to internet governance. It has also led to institutional changes within the EU. To address the challenges of the digital economy, the EU adopted several legislative packages that ultimately changed the role of the Commission and gradually empowered a central executive. However, it is one thing to have more powers and another to use them responsibly. Therefore, more public intervention powers may require greater democratic control. |
| Date: | 2024–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kwrzg |
| By: | Anja Janischewski (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Chemnitz University of Technology, Germany); Katharina Bohnenberger (German Institute for Interdisciplinary Social Policy Research, University of Bremen, SOCIUM, Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany); Matthias Kranke (Freiburg Institute for Advanced Studies (FRIAS), University of Freiburg, Germany); Tobias Vogel (Department for Philosophy, Politics and Economics, Fakulty of Economy and Society, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany); Riwan Driouich (Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Spain); Tobias Froese (Chair for Corporate Sustainability, ESCP Business School, Germany); Stefanie Gerold (Institute of Philosophy and Social Science, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Germany); Raphael Kaufmann (ZOE Institute for Future-Fit Economies, Germany); Lorenz Keyßer (Institute of Geography and Sustainability, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Switzerland); Jannis Niethammer (ICLEI European Secretariat, Germany); Christopher Olk (Otto Suhr Institute for Political Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany); Matthias Schmelzer (Norbert-Elias-Center for Transformation Design and Research, University of Flensburg, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Germany); Aslı Yürük (Urban Transformation and Global Change Laboratory (TURBA), Universitat Oberta Catalunya, Spain); Steffen Lange (Centre for Pluralist Economics, University of Siegen, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Many socio-economic systems require positive economic growth rates to function properly. Given uncertainty about future growth rates and increasing evidence that economic growth is a driver of social and environmental crises, these growth dependencies pose serious societal challenges. In recent years, more and more researchers have thus tried to identify growth-dependent systems and develop policies to reduce their growth dependence. However, the concept of "growth dependence" still lacks a consistent definition and operationalization, which impedes more systematic empirical and theoretical research. This article proposes a simple but powerful framework for defining and operationalizing the concept of "growth dependence" across socio-economic systems. We provide a general definition consisting of four components that can be specified for different empirical cases: (1) the system under investigation, (2) the unit of measurement of growth, (3) the level of growth and (4) the relevant functions or properties of the system under investigation. According to our general definition, a socio-economic system is growth-dependent if it requires a long-term positive growth rate in terms of a unit of economic measurement to maintain all its functions or properties that are relevant within the chosen normative framework. To illustrate the usefulness of our scheme, we apply it to three areas at the heart of the existing literature on growth dependence: employment, social insurance systems and public finance. These case studies demonstrate that whether or not a system is growth-dependent hinges not only on the empirical properties of the system itself but also on the specification of the concept of growth dependence. Our framework enables coherent, robust and effective definitions and research questions, fostering comparability of findings across different cases and disciplines. Better research can lead to better policies for reducing growth dependence and thus achieving stable and sustainable economies. |
| Keywords: | growth dependence, growth independence, post-growth, green growth, degrowth, growth imperative |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep064 |
| By: | Sara MacLennan |
| Abstract: | Being on the move can spiral our mood up or down. There is well-known evidence that walking and cycling can directly improve our mental health as well as our physical health1; many of us have experienced feelings of freedom when driving a car or riding a bicycle; as well as the moments of calm when sitting in a comfortable train, being carried across the country. Yet public transport can induce stress when crowded, as can a commute by car and evidence tends to show that commuting in general is not enjoyed. Not moving when we should be is even worse: surveys of wellbeing 'in the moment' show that one of the very few things which people rate as worse than commuting is waiting while commuting: waiting in a traffic jam, or waiting for a bus that seems like it will never come. |
| Keywords: | transport, roads, travel |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepops:65 |
| By: | Fernando, Gonzalez Laxe; José Francisco, Armesto Pina; Patricio Sanchez, Sanchez Fernandez |
| Abstract: | In today's world, geopolitics is leading the decisions, generating opportunities in a more inclusive globalization for many countries, while at the same time giving rise to a more fragmented economy, with fewer common rules of the game. Therefore, we are witnessing a series of overlapping crises or simultaneous crises, in which issues as disparate as tariff increases on numerous products from all corners of the world; problems arising from the supply of raw materials and food products; the effects of the emergence of artificial intelligence; China's maritime expansion; or the repercussions generated by migratory movements are intertwined. |
| Keywords: | National Accountability, Ukrania, China, international trade. |
| JEL: | E01 E02 H00 J08 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122150 |
| By: | L. Elisa Celis; Amit Kumar; Nisheeth K. Vishnoi; Andrew Xu |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the scenario in which there are multiple institutions, each with a limited capacity for candidates, and candidates, each with preferences over the institutions. A central entity evaluates the utility of each candidate to the institutions, and the goal is to select candidates for each institution in a way that maximizes utility while also considering the candidates' preferences. The paper focuses on the setting in which candidates are divided into multiple groups and the observed utilities of candidates in some groups are biased--systematically lower than their true utilities. The first result is that, in these biased settings, prior algorithms can lead to selections with sub-optimal true utility and significant discrepancies in the fraction of candidates from each group that get their preferred choices. Subsequently, an algorithm is presented along with proof that it produces selections that achieve near-optimal group fairness with respect to preferences while also nearly maximizing the true utility under distributional assumptions. Further, extensive empirical validation of these results in real-world and synthetic settings, in which the distributional assumptions may not hold, are presented. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.04897 |
| By: | Toru Kitagawa; Jeff Rowley |
| Abstract: | Static supervised learning-in which experimental data serves as a training sample for the estimation of an optimal treatment assignment policy-is a commonly assumed framework of policy learning. An arguably more realistic but challenging scenario is a dynamic setting in which the planner performs experimentation and exploitation simultaneously with subjects that arrive sequentially. This paper studies bandit algorithms for learning an optimal individualised treatment assignment policy. Specifically, we study applicability of the EXP4.P (Exponential weighting for Exploration and Exploitation with Experts) algorithm developed by Beygelzimer et al. (2011) to policy learning. Assuming that the class of policies has a finite Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension and that the number of subjects to be allocated is known, we present a high probability welfare-regret bound of the algorithm. To implement the algorithm, we use an incremental enumeration algorithm for hyperplane arrangements. We perform extensive numerical analysis to assess the algorithm's sensitivity to its tuning parameters and its welfare-regret performance. Further simulation exercises are calibrated to the National Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) Study sample to determine how the algorithm performs when applied to economic data. Our findings highlight various computational challenges and suggest that the limited welfare gain from the algorithm is due to substantial heterogeneity in causal effects in the JTPA data. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00379 |
| By: | Ro’i Zultan (BGU); Aniol Llorente-Saguer (Department of Economics, Queen Mary University of London); Santiago Oliveros (Department of Economics, University of Bristol) |
| Keywords: | information acquisition, representative heuristic, base-rate neglect, laboratory experiment |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:2411 |
| By: | Gherbi Laid (Echahid Hamma Lakhdar University) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to shed light on the role of business incubators in supporting entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship development in the university environment, as incubators are considered one of the most important support and accompaniment mechanisms that contribute to the development of entrepreneurial projects, The study adopted a case study approach through the preparation and development of a questionnaire, which was distributed, The study concluded that Algeria is striving to develop a diverse and integrated system to support, accompany and promote entrepreneurship in various aspects that affect it directly or indirectly, The business incubator at the University of the Valley is one of the most important of these mechanisms, as there is a positive impact of the business incubator's activity on entrepreneurship among students at the University of the Valley. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, business incubator, support and accompaniment mechanisms, University of the Valley. JEL Classification Codes: L26 L31 D2 O3, University of the Valley. JEL Classification Codes: L26, L31, D2, O3 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680590 |
| By: | Claude DIEBOLT; Faustine Perrin |
| Abstract: | This chapter lays the theoretical foundations of long-run economic growth. After providing an overview of the three fundamental regimes that have characterized the process of development over the course of human history on the basis of the seminal work of Galor and Weil (2000), we review existing theories offering explanations of the different stages of development. In particular, we examine the predictions and underlying mechanisms of the traditional theories of economic growth and the theories of demographic transitions. We then show the relevance of the Unified Growth Theory to explain and capture the underlying mechanisms of the development process. Finally, we highlight the importance of integrating a gendered perspective in the study of long-run economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Economic History; Economic Development; Growth; Demographic Transition; Unified Growth Theory; Gender. |
| JEL: | A33 N1 O1 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-35 |
| By: | Lins, Karl V.; Roth, Lukas; Servaes, Henri; Tamayo, Ane |
| Abstract: | During the revelation of the Harvey Weinstein scandal and the reemergence of the #MeToo movement, firms with a nonsexist corporate culture, proxied by having women among the five highest-paid executives, earn excess returns of 1.3% relative to firms without female top executives. These returns are driven by changes in investor preferences toward firms with a nonsexist culture. Institutional ownership increases in firms with a nonsexist culture after the Weinstein/#MeToo events, particularly for investors with larger holdings and investors with a lower ESG focus ex ante. Firms without female top executives improve gender diversity after these events, particularly in more sexist states and in industries with few women executives. Our evidence attests to the value of having a nonsexist corporate culture and indicates that changes in societal norms toward women are permeating into capital markets and corporations. |
| Keywords: | culture; sexism; gender equality; #MeToo; valuation; returns; investor preferences; institutional ownership; ESG; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | J16 G12 G30 |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122737 |
| By: | David Landriault; Bin Li; Hong Li; Yuanyuan Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces an economic framework to assess optimal longevity risk transfers between institutions, focusing on the interactions between a buyer exposed to long-term longevity risk and a seller offering longevity protection. While most longevity risk transfers have occurred in the reinsurance sector, where global reinsurers provide long-term protections, the capital market for longevity risk transfer has struggled to gain traction, resulting in only a few short-term instruments. We investigate how differences in risk aversion between the two parties affect the equilibrium structure of longevity risk transfer contracts, contrasting `static' contracts that offer long-term protection with `dynamic' contracts that provide short-term, variable coverage. Our analysis shows that static contracts are preferred by more risk-averse buyers, while dynamic contracts are favored by more risk-averse sellers who are reluctant to commit to long-term agreements. When incorporating information asymmetry through ambiguity, we find that ambiguity can cause more risk-averse sellers to stop offering long-term contracts. With the assumption that global reinsurers, acting as sellers in the reinsurance sector and buyers in the capital market, are generally less risk-averse than other participants, our findings provide theoretical explanations for current market dynamics and suggest that short-term instruments offer valuable initial steps toward developing an efficient and active capital market for longevity risk transfer. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08914 |
| By: | Jingru Jia; Zehua Yuan |
| Abstract: | This study explores the potential of large language models (LLMs) to conduct market experiments, aiming to understand their capability to comprehend competitive market dynamics. We model the behavior of market agents in a controlled experimental setting, assessing their ability to converge toward competitive equilibria. The results reveal the challenges current LLMs face in replicating the dynamic decision-making processes characteristic of human trading behavior. Unlike humans, LLMs lacked the capacity to achieve market equilibrium. The research demonstrates that while LLMs provide a valuable tool for scalable and reproducible market simulations, their current limitations necessitate further advancements to fully capture the complexities of market behavior. Future work that enhances dynamic learning capabilities and incorporates elements of behavioral economics could improve the effectiveness of LLMs in the economic domain, providing new insights into market dynamics and aiding in the refinement of economic policies. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08357 |
| By: | Bernardi, Marta; Zeller, Sarah; Rotich, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | The study provides empirical evidence that a targeted policy can backfire because information signals affect non-targeted units. Specifically, the analysis of the policy aimed at regulating the harvesting of juvenile fish in Peru's Anchovy Fishery, by temporarily closing areas with high juvenile catch percentages, reveals an unintended increase of 48% in the overall seasonal juvenile catch percentage. This appears to be due to substantial spatial and temporal spillovers generated by the policy that reduces search costs for fishers. The study combines administrative micro-data used by the regulator to generate closures with biologically richer data from fishing firms. All results are easily computationally reproducible within a 5-hour time frame, except for the synthetic controls robustness check, which takes a considerable amount of time (appr. 64 hours) but works. We stress the robustness and reproducibility of the study by testing whether the analysis is robust to the use of different types of standard errors, and the findings appear unaffected. Overall, the full analysis and graphic outputs of the paper are reproducible using the publicly available complementary data and code from the AEJ website despite minor code interpretability challenges. |
| Keywords: | information spillovers, targeted policies, place-based policies, fisheries, Peru |
| JEL: | Q28 O13 Q56 D83 Q22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:156 |
| By: | Keller, Bryan; Wong, Vivian C (University of Virginia); Park, Sangbaek; Zhang, Jingru; Sheehan, Patrick; Steiner, Peter M. |
| Abstract: | Within-study comparisons (WSCs) use real, rather than simulated, data to compare estimates from observational studies against a benchmark randomized controlled trial (RCT). A primary goal of WSCs is to assess whether well-designed quasi-experimental designs (QEDs) can produce internally valid causal effect estimates comparable to those from RCTs. In this paper, we describe the design and implementation of a new type of WSC. Motivated by Shadish et al. (2008), we examine the impact of a mathematics training intervention and a vocabulary study session on posttest scores for mathematics and vocabulary, respectively. We extend the original design in three ways. First, before random assignment, we ask participants to express a preference for either the mathematics or vocabulary training session, after which they are randomly assigned regardless of preferences. This allows us to experimentally identify and estimate the overall average treatment effect (ATE) and two conditional ATEs: the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and the average treatment effect on the untreated (ATU). Second, participant recruitment and sample size (N = 2200) were determined through power analyses for comparing RCT and QED estimates, ensuring sufficient power for methodological comparisons. Finally, the study’s eligibility criteria, recruitment, treatment allocation, and analysis plan were preregistered on the Open Science Foundation platform, and the data are publicly accessible. We believe that this WSC design and the resulting data set will be valuable for researchers seeking to evaluate causal inference methods and test identification assumptions using real-world data. |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:2gur9 |
| By: | Jiwon Jung; Kiseop Lee |
| Abstract: | Managing high-frequency data in a limit order book (LOB) is a complex task that often exceeds the capabilities of conventional time-series forecasting models. Accurately predicting the entire multi-level LOB, beyond just the mid-price, is essential for understanding high-frequency market dynamics. However, this task is challenging due to the complex interdependencies among compound attributes within each dimension, such as order types, features, and levels. In this study, we explore advanced multidimensional sequence-to-sequence models to forecast the entire multi-level LOB, including order prices and volumes. Our main contribution is the development of a compound multivariate embedding method designed to capture the complex relationships between spatiotemporal features. Empirical results show that our method outperforms other multivariate forecasting methods, achieving the lowest forecasting error while preserving the ordinal structure of the LOB. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.02277 |
| By: | Voll, Kyra; Höcker, Martin Christian; Bachtal, Yassien Nico; Pfnür, Andreas; Schlereth, Christian |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149746 |
| By: | Pablo D. Azar; Adrian Casillas; Maryam Farboodi |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the “DeFi intermediation chain”—the market structure that underlies the creation and distribution of ETH, the native cryptocurrency of Ethereum—to examine how information asymmetry shapes intermediation rents. We argue that using proof-of-stake blockchain technology in DeFi leads to a novel limit to arbitrage, arising from the tension between arbitrageurs' privacy needs and blockchain transparency. Using a new dataset which distinguishes private and public transactions in Ethereum, we find that a 1% increase in private information advantage leads to a 1.4% increase in intermediaries' profit share. We develop a dynamic bargaining model that predicts information market power stems exclusively from participants' private information advantage. Our analysis illustrates how blockchain technology can sustain arbitrage opportunities despite low entry barriers. |
| JEL: | C83 D82 D86 G23 G29 L86 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32949 |
| By: | Jinyang Li |
| Abstract: | In this research paper, we investigate into a paper named "A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for the Financial Portfolio Management Problem" [arXiv:1706.10059]. It is a portfolio management problem which is solved by deep learning techniques. The original paper proposes a financial-model-free reinforcement learning framework, which consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. Three different instants are used to realize this framework, namely a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a basic Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The performance is then examined by comparing to a number of recently reviewed or published portfolio-selection strategies. We have successfully replicated their implementations and evaluations. Besides, we further apply this framework in the stock market, instead of the cryptocurrency market that the original paper uses. The experiment in the cryptocurrency market is consistent with the original paper, which achieve superior returns. But it doesn't perform as well when applied in the stock market. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08426 |
| By: | Sule Alan; Michela Carlana; Marinella Leone |
| Abstract: | We evaluate an intervention designed to increase teachers’ awareness of social isolation by providing them with their own students’ social network and information on developmental risks associated with social exclusion. Using friendship data and incentive-compatible measures of antisocial and prosocial behavior, we find that the intervention reduces social isolation and antisocial behavior without improving prosocial behavior. The reduction in antisocial behavior leads to better economic outcomes in treated classrooms, measured by average payoffs and the Gini coefficient. Our findings highlight the personal and communal benefits of alleviating social exclusion and antisocial peer relationships in schools. |
| JEL: | C93 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32954 |
| By: | Brzezinski, Adam; Palma, Nuno; Velde, François R. |
| Abstract: | Debates about the nature and economic role of money are mostly informed by evidence from the twentieth century, but money has existed for millennia. We argue that there are many lessons to be learned from monetary history that are relevant for current topics of policy relevance. The past is a source of evidence on how money works across different situations, helping to tease out features of money that do not depend on one time and place. A close reading of history also offers testing grounds for models of economic behavior and can thereby guide theories on how money is transmitted to the real economy. |
| Keywords: | identification in macroeconomics; monetary history; monetary policy; natural experiments; policy experiments |
| JEL: | E40 E50 N10 |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125356 |
| By: | Patrick T. Harker |
| Abstract: | Patrick T. Harker delivered a lecture to students at the Tulane University A.B. Freeman School of Business on the work and mission of the Federal Reserve Bank System. He discussed the varied career opportunities available at the Fed, noting that building “a more secure economic future that benefits all Americans requires attracting and retaining a diverse and dynamic set of individuals committed to service.” In discussing the Fed’s role in monetary policy, Harker emphasized the importance of data-driven decision-making, saying the Fed has remained “dependent on surveying all the available data and, importantly, taking a longer-look approach and not over- or under-reacting to one particular month or one particular dataset.” Harker additionally highlighted several collaborative, groundbreaking research projects conducted across the System, stating that “economic research goes far beyond monetary policy and into areas that can help us better understand the totality of life in our communities.” He concluded with thoughts on the increasing role of technology in the financial sector, citing the Fed’s efforts to assemble “teams needed to ensure that the sector’s future is safe and secure so that customers — and the global economy — can have faith in it.” |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpsp:98804 |
| By: | Ro’i Zultan (BGU); Yamit Asulin (BGU); Yuval Heller (Bar Ilan University); Nira Munichor (Bar Ilan University) |
| Keywords: | Social image, social distance, field experiment, crowding up, prosocial behavior |
| JEL: | C93 D64 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:2410 |
| By: | Sebastian Horn; David Mihalyi; Philipp Nickol; César Sosa-Padilla |
| Abstract: | How reliable are public debt statistics? This paper quantifies the magnitude, characteristics, and timing of hidden debt by tracking ex post data revisions across a comprehensive new database of more than 50 vintages of World Bank debt statistics. In a sample of debt data covering 146 countries and 53 years, the paper establishes three new stylized facts: (i) debt statistics are systematically under-reported; (ii) hidden debt accumulates in boom years and tends to be revealed in bad times, often during IMF programs and sovereign defaults; and (iii) in debt restructurings, higher hidden debt is associated with larger creditor losses. The novel data is used to numerically discipline a quantitative sovereign debt model with hidden debt accumulation and an endogenous monitoring decision that triggers revelations. Model simulations show that hidden debt has adverse effects on default risk, debt-carrying capacity and asset prices and is therefore welfare detrimental. |
| JEL: | F34 G01 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32947 |
| By: | Saloua Zgoulli-Swalhi (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School); Antoine Chollet (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - UM - Université de Montpellier); Bernard Fallery (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School) |
| Abstract: | Cette communication repose sur la pièce de théâtre écrite et jouée par un groupe d'enseignantschercheurs dans le cadre de leurs activités de médiation scientifique. Cette pièce, dans le plus grand respect de l'esprit de Molière, devient aujourd'hui une satyre des « Messieurs Jourdain » assez naïfs, qui prétendent acquérir tous les codes de la New tech ou de la Start-up Nation pour faire partie de l'élite ou de la nouvelle génération. Autour de ces utilisateurs ébahis par la technologie gravitent bien sûr de nombreux profiteurs. La controverse se déroule donc avec ceux qui ont une autre vision de la place du numérique dans la société, comme les "Mesdames Jourdain". Dans une première partie on revient d'abord ici sur le cadre théorique qui permettent d'éclairer la position des universitaires dans la médiation scientifique. Un extrait de la pièce est présenté en deuxième partie. En conclusion on décrit le dispositif scénique proposé en tant que communication au Colloque de l'AIM. |
| Keywords: | médiation scientifque, théâtre, intelligence artifcielle, société du numérique |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680897 |
| By: | Saigh Malika (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes) |
| Abstract: | OPEC continued its efforts to strengthen and stabilize the global oil market in the 2000. Increasing market volatility and the collapse of the global financial sector have unfortunately led to an economic recession. The Organization then began to support the oil sector to address the crisis. The purpose of this article is to provide an explanation from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. To begin with, we will give some general information on this organization and with the help of statistical data we will give an analysis of the evolution of the price of oil correlatively with the events which marked the oil industry which will enable us to see that the principle of supply and demand is respected in the form, because oil prices fluctuate with supply and demand levels. |
| Keywords: | OPEC Global Production Oil reserves Oil production . JEL Classification Codes: D51 E23 L11 R32 R48, OPEC, Global Production, Oil reserves, Oil production . JEL Classification Codes: D51, E23, L11, R32, R48 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680606 |
| By: | Ramos Rodríguez, Pablo David (Universidad de los Andes); Mejía, Daniel (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Este estudio analiza la variación en la luminosidad nocturna capturada con imágenes satelitales con el objetivo de estimar las condiciones que explican el efecto de la iluminación en espacios públicos sobre la indicencia del crimen. Para esto, se estima un modelo panel mensual de efectos fijos con grillas de 463 metros cuadrados de las 6 principales ciudades de Colombia entre 2014 y 2018. Ante aumentos de una desviación estándar en el histórico de luminosidad para cada grilla, se encuentra un aumento en los delitos contra la vida (+3, 2% a +9, 6 %) en lugares exteriores por aumento en las oportunidades de cometer crimen por mayor actividad económica y social; así como una disuasión de los delitos contra la propiedad (-1, 9% a -4, 4 %) y contra la vida (-3, 3% a -4, 5 %) en lugares interiores por mayores posibilidades de ocupación legal en vez de criminal. Aunque no predomina, hay evidencia que sugiere que el mecanismo de disuasión por vigilancia natural opera y atenúa el efecto del mecanismo de oportunidades de crimen. |
| Keywords: | Luminosidad nocturna; crimen urbano; imágenes satelitales. |
| JEL: | D91 I38 K14 |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021194 |
| By: | Abdullahi, Isah Usman; Muhammad, Umar Farouq; Yahaya, Umar Isah |
| Abstract: | This study used a disaggregated macroeconomic model and an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) to analyze the effects of non-oil exports (NOE) on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980 to 2021. Before estimating the model, unit root and co-integration tests were conducted to determine the stationarity and long-run properties of the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test results indicated that all-time series were non-stationary at level but became stationary after first differencing. The Johansen co-integration test results revealed that the variables are co-integrated, suggesting a long-run equilibrium relationship among them. The ECM findings indicated that NOE components positively impacted Nigeria's economic growth in both the short and long run, although the impact was largely insignificant. Based on these results, it was recommended that Nigeria's export development strategy be refocused and reinforced to address supply capacity constraints in various NOE sectors. The argument is that the government can initially manage and develop these non-oil sectors and later transfer them to private enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth: Non-Oil Export (NOE): Trade Openness: Exchange Rate |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122084 |
| By: | Bernard Deschamps; Philippe Gachon; Michel Leclerc; Mathieu Boudreault (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | In Québec, flood damage costs have risen sharply over the past 40 years, partly due to population and property growth in flood-prone areas. This phenomenon is exacerbated by extreme weather events, such as torrential rains, some of which are on the rise in southern Québec in spring. Today, these costs are primarily covered by provincial and federal financial assistance programs and, to a lesser extent, by private insurance. These cost-sharing mechanisms give rise to moral hazard because they do not encourage municipalities or disaster victims to reduce risk. Municipalities need to be included in cost sharing because of their crucial role in land use planning and risk management. Similarly, disaster victims need to be included because they also have a role to play in reducing risk. This paper proposes and analyzes an economic contribution mechanism for municipalities that distributes the cost of damage to residential buildings more equitably. (Equity refers to a fair and just distribution of the financial burden based on the relative level of exposure to risk and the ability to reduce the risk for all parties involved.) The contribution is calculated for three medium-sized municipalities in Québec based on the sum of the average annual damage to each of the residential buildings located in their jurisdictions, and on property values. Three observations are drawn from this analysis: 1) a municipality's level of exposure is not correlated with its property value; 2) the low damage rate of a majority of buildings located in flood-prone areas justifies maintaining these buildings in these zones, provided that mitigation measures are implemented; and 3) relocating a minimum number of buildings would considerably reduce the municipality's economic contribution to damage costs. Implementing an economic contribution mechanism for municipalities and exposed citizens is intended to reduce the moral hazard and inequity generated by the current approach and encourage municipalities to implement mitigation and risk reduction measures. All stakeholders could equitably finance these measures. |
| Keywords: | flood damage, flood risk sharing, moral hazard, economic equity, municipal contribution |
| JEL: | H76 H84 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:69 |
| By: | Matilde Bombardini; Andres Gonzalez-Lira; Bingjing Li; Chiara Motta |
| Abstract: | The latest resurgence in the U.S. of policies aimed at reducing imports and bolstering domestic production has included the expansion of Buy American provisions. While some of these are new and untested, in this paper we evaluate long-standing procurement limitations on the purchase of foreign products by the U.S. Federal Government. We use procurement micro-data to first map and measure the positive employment effects of government purchases. We then calibrate a quantitative trade model adapted to include features relevant to the Buy American Act: a government sector, policy barriers in final and intermediate goods, labor force participation, and external economies of scale. We show that current Buy American provisions on final goods purchase have created up to 100, 000 jobs at a cost of between $111, 500 and $137, 700 per job. However, the recently announced tightening of the policy on the use of foreign inputs will create fewer jobs at a higher cost of $154, 000 to $237, 800 per job. We also find scant evidence of the use of Buy American rules as an effective industrial policy. |
| JEL: | F1 F13 H41 H57 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32953 |
| By: | Kim, Minseong |
| Abstract: | Typical New Keynesian models assume that the aggregate price level P can be treated as a given constant in firm optimization problems as the number n of firms goes to infinity. We show that this always holds only when there are actually infinitely many firms and not for the infinitely many firms limit. While largely an irrelevant issue for the flexible-price model, it becomes critical for the flexible-price limit of the sticky price model. Although the flexible-price model has a unique equilibrium, there are infinitely many flexible-price limits of the sticky-price model without interventions even in non-nominal real terms. This does not require dynamic effects, such as the binding zero lower bound. We discuss other defenses of the New Keynesian model assumption and find them either implausible or in need of further discussion due to significant deviations from the conventional analysis. |
| Date: | 2024–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fvc9x |
| By: | Ratna Sahay (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Navya Srivastava (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Mahima Vasishth (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi) |
| Abstract: | TGlobally, women’s share in corporate leadership has been steadily rising, including in India. The female director mandate under The Companies Act (2013) in India marked a significant step toward gender-inclusive corporate leadership, requiring listed firms to have at least one woman on their board. Within a year, the percentage of listed firms without women on board plummeted from 53 percent to less than 10 percent. Despite this progress, India still lags in the share of women in middle and senior management roles at only 17 percent, compared to nearly 33 percent for the world. This paper documents the status of gender-inclusive corporate leadership and uses the woman director mandate in the Act to study its relationship with firm outcomes, including financial performance and corporate culture in India. Interestingly we find that firms, on average, were appointing more women than mandated by the Act, suggesting the favorable impact of the current government’s signal to foster women-led development and the positive experience gained by firms. At the same time, newly appointed women were younger and more educated than their male counterparts and their average directorship “stretch factor†increased significantly compared to men. Combining personnel-level data from NSE-listed firms with firm performance data and employing a reverse difference-in-difference econometric strategy, we find that having at least one woman on board is associated with higher economic performance, financial stability, and lower financial risk. Additionally, using almost 400, 000 employee reviews scraped from a company review platform, we find that higher shares of women in board positions correlate positively with employee ratings and sentiment scores only when firms also hire women in top management positions. This analysis highlights the business case of appointing more women at the top. |
| Keywords: | Women’s Leadership, Firm Performance, Firm Culture |
| JEL: | J16 L25 M59 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:170 |
| By: | Dagiene, Eleonora (Mykolas Romeris University); Larivière, Vincent; Dix, Guus; Waltman, Ludo |
| Abstract: | Performance-based funding systems have significantly impacted the research systems in many countries. This study examines the evolution of the performance-based funding system in Lithuania. Using a multi-level, multi-actor, and multi-issue approach, we investigate how various actors influenced policy choices and outcomes. Through a combination of policy analysis, interviews, and bibliometric analysis, we explore tensions between international aspirations and domestic realities, the interplay between national policies and publishing behaviour, and challenges of metrics-based research assessment. Our findings reveal how the dominant role of scientific elites at all levels of governance had both intended outcomes (increase in publications in general and international publications in particular) and unintended consequences (proliferation of institutional journals and strategic publishing practices). Our study provides insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to develop effective and sustainable policies amidst calls for research assessment reform. |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9yq38 |
| By: | Jaramillo Erazo, Natalia (Universidad de los Andes); Bonet De Vivero, Mariana (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Los programas de crianza han demostrado ser una estrategia efectiva para reducir desigualdades entre poblaciones vulnerables (UNICEF, 2021; OMS, 2018; Heckman, 2017). Este estudio evalúa la rentabilidad de Semillas de Apego, un programa psicosocial comunitario que se enfoca en la salud mental de cuidadores de niños de 0 a 5 años afectados por el conflicto armado y el desplazamiento forzado en Colombia, buscando mejorar el desarrollo infantil. Utilizando los resultados de la evaluación de impacto del programa y basándonos en la literatura, vinculamos los efectos con la monetización en cinco dimensiones: costos médicos evitados, ausentismo laboral y productividad, criminalidad, ingresos, y educación. Dado que el programa solo cuenta con evidencia de impacto a corto plazo, proyectamos los beneficios a largo plazo bajo tres escenarios: beneficios crecientes y decrecientes en el largo y corto plazo. Para los dos primeros escenarios, seguimos a los participantes durante 28 años (niños) y 7 años (adultos); en el tercero, asumimos que los beneficios desaparecen tras 2-3 años. Descontando a una tasa del 6.4%, encontramos que la relación costo-beneficio varía entre 1.57 y 6.87 dólares por dólar invertido, superando sustancialmente los costos. Estos hallazgos, en línea con la literatura internacional (Reynolds y Temple, 2008), sugieren que invertir en programas como Semillas de Apego es rentable para mejorar la salud mental y las trayectorias de vida en zonas de conflicto. |
| Keywords: | análisis costo-beneficio; intervenciones en la primera infancia; salud mental; conflicto armado; desplazamiento forzado |
| JEL: | D61 F52 H43 I15 J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021193 |
| By: | Kay, Rosemarie; Pahnke, André; Welter, Friederike |
| Abstract: | While existing research on business successions stresses the importance of the economic situation of family business in this context, research on women's entrepreneurship, however, suggests that women-led businesses may be less economically attractive for potential successors because of structural differences in comparison to men-led business. Moreover, the business owner's gender may have an impact on the business succession process and its outcome too. Based on one the largest German establishment surveys which is augmented by additional administrative data, this chapter seeks to further link the two research strands by providing first insights into the impact of family businesses owner's gender on both business succession planning and the outcome of the business succession process. Regarding the outcome of business successions, the results indicate that differences between women- and men-led businesses are not related to gender but to characteristics of the businesses to be handed over. |
| Keywords: | Gender, family businesses, business succession |
| JEL: | J16 L26 M2 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifmwps:303037 |
| By: | Diegert, Paul; Jochmans, Koen |
| Abstract: | Consider dyadic random variables on units from a given population. It is common to assume that these variables are jointly exchangeable and dissociated. In this case they admit a non-separable specification with two-way unobserved heterogeneity. The analysis of this type of structure is of considerable interest but little is known about their nonparametric identifiability, especially when the unobserved heterogeneity is continuous. We provide conditions under which both the distribution of the observed random variables conditional on the unit-specific heterogeneity and the distribution of the unit-specific heterogeneity itself are uniquely recoverable from knowledge of the joint marginal distribution of the observable random variables alone without imposing parametric restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Exchangeability; conditional independence; dyadic data; network; two-way; heterogeneity |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129722 |
| By: | Anders Broström (School of Industrial Engineering and Management, KTH Royal Institute of Technology); Cornelia Lawson (Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, The University of Manchester); Mabel Sanchez Barrioluengo (Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, The University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | Science is widely embraced as an important prerequisite for innovation, and there is widespread support for public investment in science on that basis. It remains less clear to what extent the general public also perceives science as a relevant source of expertise on technological development and innovation. Drawing on representative panels from two European countries (the United Kingdom and Sweden), we investigate whether scientists are perceived as credible senders of messages regarding future technological development and its consequences. We apply a conjoint analysis methodology. Specifically, we estimate the credibility of scientists by comparing how respondents’ assessments of societal challenges statements change with the attribution of that statement to scientists, compared with attribution to other type of expert groups (government, businesspersons, and issue advocates). While our study identifies positively framed predictions about new technology and innovation as a domain where scientific expertise is perceived as enjoying relatively high credibility, actors representing business and special interest groups are overall perceived as more credible conveyors of ‘bad news’, of negatively framed messages about the future. Implications for our understanding of the social contract of science are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Scientific Experts, Expertise, Trust in Science, SDGs, Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdj:smioir:2024-04 |
| By: | Tsoulfidis, Lefteris; Chatzarakis, Nikolaos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the conditions leading neoclassical economics to its division into microeconomics and macroeconomics, comparing it with the integrated macroscopic-microscopic approach of Classical Political Economy (CPE). Neoclassical economics emerged in the last quarter of the 19th century introducing a subjective theory of value based on individual preferences and optimizing behavior. The division between micro and macroeconomics became visible during the 1930s crisis due to what came to be known as monopolistic competition and macroeconomic revolutions. The stagflation crisis (of late 1960s to early 1980s) prompted the so-called microfounding of macroeconomics and the unified treatment of macroeconomic issues. By contrast, the CPE maintains a unified perspective, analyzing capitalism broadly at a macroscopic level focusing on labor as the primary value creator. Unlike neoclassical theory, CPE prioritizes aggregated variables and social class incomes driven by survival and profit motives rather than subjective preferences. The paper concludes that issues of effective demand, growth, and cycles can be fruitfully addressed within the unified CPE framework, highlighting the theoretical consistency of employing the labor theory of value for evaluating aggregate variables like capital. |
| Keywords: | Microfoundations, Classical Political Economy, Labor Theory of Value, Utility, Marginal Productivity |
| JEL: | B21 B22 B51 D01 E10 E11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121951 |
| By: | Yacine Dahmani (UMMTO - Université Mouloud Mammeri [Tizi Ouzou]); Arkoub Ouali (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes) |
| Abstract: | This work aims to present the solvency system currently in the insurance sector in Algeria, more precisely the Solvency I Directive. To identify the shortcomings and limitations of the prudential regulation and finally, to offer recommendations necessary to ensure the development of the activity of insurance in Algeria, and consequently the economy in general. Thus, to present the transition from the Solvency I prudential standard to the Solvency II prudential standard, which was implemented on the insurance market in Europe on January 01, 2016.Finally, the Algerian regulation cannot stay away from international reforms, including the Solvency II standard; it must adapt his system to comply with these standards. |
| Keywords: | Insurance, solvency, prudential rules, solvency II, prudential standards. JEL Classification Codes : G22 G28 M16, prudential standards. JEL Classification Codes : G22, G28, M16 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680573 |
| By: | Mohamed Bendjiar (Blida2 University Lounici Ali); Cheboui Salim (TIPAZA UNIVERSITY CENTER DZA - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture); Gachi Khaled (TIPAZA UNIVERSITY CENTER DZA - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of national export-promotion programs (NEPPs) on the export performance (EXP). This study used the resourcebased view (RBV) and the Institutional-based view (IBV) theory to provide a holistic understanding of the issue. we developed model include the NEPPs as an independent variable, EXP as dependent variable, and the Marketing planning capabilities (MPC) as an intermediary variable. the study tests the direct and the indirect effect for the model variables Using a partial least-squares equation model (PLS SEM) method to analyze 47 samples collected from 2022 randomly by accessing Algerian's export managers in the Algerian's food industry companies. The results confirm and show the significant direct and indirect effects of Financial aid-related national export promotion program on the export performance, and the indirect effect of Information-related national export promotion program on the export performance through the Marketing planning capabilities. |
| Keywords: | National export promotion program (NEPPs) Export performance (EXP) Marketing JEL Classification Codes: M160 F23 L250, National export promotion program (NEPPs), Export performance (EXP), Marketing JEL Classification Codes: M160, F23, L250 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684565 |
| By: | Zian Wang; Xinshu Li |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the influence of low-frequency macroeconomic variables on the high-frequency returns of copper futures and the long-term correlation with the S&P 500 index, employing GARCH-MIDAS and DCC-MIDAS modeling frameworks. The estimated results of GARCH-MIDAS show that realized volatility (RV), level of interest rates (IR), industrial production (IP) and producer price index (PPI), volatility of Slope, PPI, consumer sentiment index (CSI), and dollar index (DI) have significant impacts on Copper futures returns, among which PPI is the most efficient macroeconomic variable. From comparison among DCC-GARCH and DCC-MIDAS model, the added MIDAS filter of PPI improves the model fitness and have better performance than RV in effecting the long-run relationship between Copper futures and S&P 500. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08355 |
| By: | Jennifer La'O; Wendy A. Morrison |
| Abstract: | We study optimal monetary policy in a general equilibrium economy with heterogeneous agents and nominal rigidities. Households differ in type-specific, state-contingent labor productivity and initial firm ownership, yet markets are complete. The fiscal authority has access to a linear tax schedule with non-state-contingent tax rates and uniform, lump-sum taxes (or transfers). We derive sufficient conditions under which implementing flexible-price allocations is optimal. We then show that when there are fluctuations in relative labor productivity across households, it is optimal for monetary policy to abandon the flexible-price benchmark and target a state-contingent markup. The optimal markup covaries positively with a sufficient statistic for labor income inequality. In a calibrated version of the model, countercyclical earnings inequality implies countercyclical optimal markups. |
| JEL: | D61 D63 E32 E52 E63 H21 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32921 |
| By: | Ratna Sahay (Center for Global Development; National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)); Navya Srivastava (National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)); Mahima Vasishth (Bocconi University; National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)) |
| Abstract: | Globally, women’s share in corporate leadership has been steadily rising, including in India. The female director mandate under The Companies Act (2013) in India marked a significant step toward gender-inclusive corporate leadership, requiring listed firms to have at least one woman on their board. Within a year, the percentage of listed firms without women on board plummeted from 53 percent to less than 10 percent. Despite this progress, India still lags in the share of women in middle and senior management roles at only 17 percent, compared to nearly 33 percent for the world. This paper documents the status of gender-inclusive corporate leadership and uses the woman director mandate in the Act to study its relationship with firm outcomes, including financial performance and corporate culture in India. Interestingly we find that firms, on average, were appointing more women than mandated by the Act, suggesting the favorable impact of the current government’s signal to foster women-led development and the positive experience gained by firms. At the same time, newly appointed women were younger and more educated than their male counterparts and their average number of directorship (the “stretch factor”) increased significantly compared to men. Combining personnel-level data from NSE-listed firms with firm performance data and employing a reverse difference-in-difference econometric strategy, we find that having at least one woman on board is associated with higher economic performance and financial stability. Additionally, using almost 400, 000 employee reviews scraped from a company review platform, we find that higher shares of women in board positions correlate positively with employee ratings and sentiment scores only when firms also hire women in top management positions. This analysis highlights the business case of appointing more women at the top. |
| Keywords: | Women’s Leadership, Firm Performance, Firm Culture |
| JEL: | J16 L25 M59 |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:704 |
| By: | Léon-Gómez, Carlos R.; Teixidó, Jordi J.; Verde, Stefano F. |
| Abstract: | We study the local distortionary effects of notches in Spain’s CO2-based vehicle registration tax on the distribution of new car CO2 performance. These effects are the smoking gun of carmaker strategic behaviour and affect in turn tax revenue and CO2 emissions. Using model-level data on all car registrations in Spain 2010-2020, we apply the bunching approach to the three thresholds of the tax scheme: 120, 160, and 200 gCO2/km. We find that the tax notches strongly affected market outcomes, resulting in the sale of about 388, 000 more cars (overall) at or just below the thresholds compared to the respective counterfactuals without the thresholds. This translates into about €335 million of foregone tax revenue and only very limited extra abatement of CO2 emissions. Over 90-95% of all estimated bunching took place at the first threshold (120 gCO2/km). Over 60% of all estimated bunching took place before 2015. Bunching diminished over time, which reflects diminished effectiveness of the tax in both reducing CO2 emissions and generating revenue. Taking the interactions with both EU vehicle emission standards and similar CO2-related policies in other Member States into consideration is important for interpreting these results. |
| Keywords: | CO2-based vehicle taxes, Notches, Bunching, Carmakers, Strategic behaviour, Emissions, Tax revenue, Policy interactions |
| JEL: | H23 H30 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122103 |
| By: | Claire M. Bowen; Joshua Snoke; Aaron R. Williams; Andrés F. Barrientos |
| Abstract: | Research on privacy enhancing approaches for sharing data has grown significantly over the past two decades. This increased interest has led to extensive theoretical and methodological research, but the number of practical applications of privacy enhancing technologies has lagged far behind. This paper provides an overview of the Safe Data Technologies Project and the approach we have taken to conducting privacy research with the specific aim of putting theory into practice and incorporating user input. We provide an overview of the broader project goals, which aim to safely expand access to administrative tax data that is currently highly restricted. We highlight how understanding user interactions with the privacy enhancing methods has driven our research path and challenged the often unrealistic assumptions underlying much of the theoretical work. We review the primary findings from our research, discuss our plans for future directions, and make the case for researchers to pursue similar lines of applied inquiry. |
| JEL: | H20 Z00 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32909 |
| By: | Andrian, Leandro Gaston; Rodríguez, César M.; Valencia, Oscar |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the drivers of public debt surges across 172 countries from 1980-2021. We focus on the role of discrepancies between the annual change in public debt and the budget deficit, referred to as stock-flow adjustments (SFA). The analysis employs survival methods to model the effect of SFA and other macroeconomic factors on the hazard rate for debt spike events. We differentiate between debt accumulation trends and spikes to examine how SFA influences the likelihood of a spike once a country is already on an increasing debt trajectory. Our results indicate that an increase of one percentage point in the SFA to GDP ratio increases the hazard rate of a surge by 15%. This effect is greater for advanced economies (25%) relative to emerging markets (14%). Moreover, contingent on a debt trend, a higher SFA significantly increases the chance that a spike will materialize, especially in advanced countries. We address the self-selection problem associated with SFA by using an IV approach based on the notion that fiscal transparency. We conclude that accurate SFA estimates are critical for debt sustainability analyses. Overall, our analysis provides novel evidence on the mechanisms underlying public debt surges and their consequences. Our findings can guide policymakers in identifying risks from hidden debt trajectories and improving transparency. The results are robust to various sensitivity checks and alternative specifications and methodologies. |
| Keywords: | Debt spikes;Stock Flow Adjustment;Debt |
| JEL: | H61 H62 H63 H69 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13725 |
| By: | Kim, Minseong |
| Abstract: | We show that the first-order optimality conditions in the baseline New Keynesian model relating to central bank reserves become invalid due to a corner solution, with future budget constraints plus rational expectation requiring zero central bank reserves today even for a disequilibrium. The use of a multiple-agent variant does not resolve the issue. The corrected understanding of the baseline New Keynesian model supports the MMT view that despite endogenous money, HPM can be crucial for efficacy of monetary and government policies. We leave the question of whether a fully Post-Keynesian analysis invalidates such a conclusion to future works. |
| Date: | 2024–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dzjsc |
| By: | Laurent Busca (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier, UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Consumer research is generally quick to emphasize the reflexive, agentic aspects of consumption, although it also shows how strongly material and discursive structures constrain this agency. But is consumption necessarily a matter of agency, for the individuals themselves? Using a Foucauldian approach, this paper seeks to explore this question through the characterization of meh, a kind of voluntary indifference, as a form of morality resistant to the governmentality of consumption. We propose that meh is a moral form characterized by individuals' focus on a certain moral substance, namely the refusal of their agentic capacity, which distinguishes it from both "classic" consumption and resistant anti-consumption. We attempt to characterize how meh could be another form of resistance to consumption, and could take multiple forms in its everyday incarnation. |
| Abstract: | La consumer research est généralement prompte à souligner les aspects réflexifs et agentiques de la consommation, bien qu'elle montre également à quel point les structures matérielles et discursives contraignent très fortement cette agence. Mais la consommation estelle nécessairement affaire d'agence, pour les individus eux-mêmes ? En mobilisant une approche foucaldienne, ce travail tente de creuser cette question à travers la caractérisation du balek, une sorte d'indifférence volontaire, en tant que forme de moralité résistante à la gouvernementalité de la consommation. Nous proposons que le balek est une forme morale qui se caractérise par sa focalisation par les individus sur une certaine substance morale, à savoir le refus de leur capacité agentique, qui la distingue d'une part de la consommation « classique » mais également de l'anti-consommation résistante. Nous tentons de caractériser en quoi le balek pourrait être une autre forme de résistance à la consommation, et pourrait prendre des formes multiples dans son incarnation quotidienne. |
| Keywords: | Foucault, governmentality, moral, indifference, consumption, gouvernementalité, morale, indifférence, consommation |
| Date: | 2023–11–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680801 |
| By: | Greig, Alastair; McIlory, John |
| Abstract: | This paper examines ten comprehensive manure management systems that are considered viable in an NI context to reduce ammonia loss in raw milk production systems. Estimates of their ammonia loss, the cost of the system and the resulting abatement costs are developed to provide a comparison. |
| Keywords: | Dairy Farming, Dairy Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes324:345320 |
| By: | Greig, Alastair; McIlory, John |
| Abstract: | This paper examines ten comprehensive manure management systems that are considered viable in an NI context to reduce ammonia loss in raw milk production systems. Estimates of their ammonia loss, the cost of the system and the resulting abatement costs are developed to provide a comparison. |
| Keywords: | Dairy Farming, Dairy Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ifma22:345320 |
| By: | Cerqua Augusto; Di Stefano Roberta; Mattera Raffaele |
| Abstract: | Many treatments are non-randomly assigned, continuous in nature, and exhibit heterogeneous effects even at identical treatment intensities. Taken together, these characteristics pose significant challenges for identifying causal effects, as no existing estimator can provide an unbiased estimate of the average causal dose-response function. To address this gap, we introduce the Clustered Dose-Response Function (Cl-DRF), a novel estimator designed to discern the continuous causal relationships between treatment intensity and the dependent variable across different subgroups. This approach leverages both theoretical and data-driven sources of heterogeneity and operates under relaxed versions of the conditional independence and positivity assumptions, which are required to be met only within each identified subgroup. To demonstrate the capabilities of the Cl-DRF estimator, we present both simulation evidence and an empirical application examining the impact of European Cohesion funds on economic growth. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08773 |
| By: | Martin Jaraiz; Ruth Pinacho |
| Abstract: | We present recent progress in the design and development of DEPLOYERS, an agent-based macroeconomics modeling (ABM) framework, capable to deploy and simulate a full economic system (individual workers, goods and services firms, government, central and private banks, financial market, external sectors) whose structure and activity analysis reproduce the desired calibration data, that can be, for example a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) or a Supply-Use Table (SUT) or an Input-Output Table (IOT).Here we extend our previous work to a multi-country version and show an example using data from a 46-countries 64-sectors FIGARO Inter-Country IOT. The simulation of each country runs on a separate thread or CPU core to simulate the activity of one step (month, week, or day) and then interacts (updates imports, exports, transfer) with that country's foreign partners, and proceeds to the next step. This interaction can be chosen to be aggregated (a single row and column IO account) or disaggregated (64 rows and columns) with each partner. A typical run simulates thousands of individuals and firms engaged in their monthly activity and then records the results, much like a survey of the country's economic system. This data can then be subjected to, for example, an Input-Output analysis to find out the sources of observed stylized effects as a function of time in the detailed and realistic modeling environment that can be easily implemented in an ABM framework. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.04876 |
| By: | Bohren, Noah (University of Lausanne); Hakimov, Rustamdjan (University of Lausanne); Lalive, Rafael (University of Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has made substantial progress, but some capabilities of AI are not well understood. This study compares the ability of AI to a representative population of US adults in creative and strategic tasks. The creative ideas produced by AI chatbots are rated more creative than those created by humans. Moreover, ChatGPT is substantially more creative than humans, while Bard lags behind. Augmenting humans with AI improves human creativity, albeit not as much as ideas created by ChatGPT alone. Competition from AI does not significantly reduce the creativity of men, but it decreases the creativity of women. Humans who rate the text cannot discriminate well between ideas created by AI or other humans but assign lower scores to the responses they believe to be AI-generated. As for strategic capabilities, while ChatGPT shows a clear ability to adjust its moves in a strategic game to the play of the opponent, humans are, on average, more successful in this adaptation. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, ChatGPT, Bard, creativity, experiment |
| JEL: | I24 J24 D91 C90 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17302 |
| By: | Bebe Ciausu (University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the factors that led to the explosive growth of the Church in the subapostolic period, despite the vacuum of authority and missionary strategy left by the death of Christ's apostles. Some of these factors, such as the exercise of supernatural gifts, the dedication of itinerant prophets to bring the Gospel to as many people as possible, the synagogue system and the prevalence of Jewish proselytism, Hellenized culture, Roman infrastructure, and the rise of mystery religions are attested to in the literature. However, in this research paper, we suggest that a decisive role in the spread of the Gospel throughout the Roman Empire was played by Christian laymen who believed it was their responsibility to carry the message of salvation to the ends of the earth. |
| Keywords: | church, growth, apostolic fathers, mission, evangelism, subapostolic age |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0376 |
| By: | Shalini Mitra; Gareth Liu-Evans |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of an intangible investment technology shock in driving and propagating business cycles. In a dynamic general equilibrium framework with borrowing constrained entrepreneurs, we show that consumption smoothing by entrepreneurs, which is associated with reallocation of physical investment and hours from final goods to intangible investment, is the key mechanism through which aggregate co-movement arises in the model. The reallocation channel is especially strong in the presence of binding financial constraints. We use firm level intangible capital estimates to discipline the model and show that the entrepreneur’s degree of risk aversion, which determines their preference for consumption smoothing given their constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility, plays a key role in quantitatively generating the observed joint aggregate business cycle dynamics of output, consumption, investment and hours. For instance, entrepreneurs can display too little or too much risk aversion, in which case aggregate comovement is negated. |
| Keywords: | Intangible investment shock, reallocation, intangible capital, business cycles, aggregate comovement |
| JEL: | E13 E22 E32 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202414 |
| By: | Rohini Kumar; Frederick "Forrest" Miller; Hussein Nasralah; Stephan Sturm |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the pricing of contingent claims of American style, using indifference pricing by fully dynamic convex risk measures. We provide a general definition of risk-indifference prices for buyers and sellers in continuous time, in a setting where buyer and seller have potentially different information, and show that these definitions are consistent with no-arbitrage principles. Specifying to stochastic volatility models, we characterize indifference prices via solutions of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations reflected at Backward Stochastic Differential Equations and show that this characterization provides a basis for the implementation of numerical methods using deep learning. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00095 |
| By: | Sabien Dobbelaere (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Michael D. König (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Andrin Spescha (ETH Zurich); Martin Wörter (ETH Zurich) |
| Abstract: | The fraction of R&D active firms decreased in Switzerland but increased in the Netherlands from 2000-2016. This paper examines reasons for this divergence and its impact on productivity growth. Our micro-data reveal R&D concentration among high-productivity firms in Switzerland. Innovation support sustains firms’ R&D activities in both countries. Our structural growth model identifies the impact of innovation, imitation and R&D costs on firms’ R&D decisions. R&D costs gained importance in Switzerland but not in the Netherlands, explaining the diverging R&D trends. Yet, counterfactual analyses show that policies should prioritize enhancing innovation and imitation success over cost reduction to boost productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | R&D, innovation, imitation, R&D costs, policy, productivity growth, traveling wave. |
| Date: | 2023–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230080 |
| By: | Nadir ALTINOK; Claude DIEBOLT; Romain DIEBOLT |
| Abstract: | Cette contribution mobilise des données originales afin de retracer l’évolution de longue période des inégalités en termes de compétences scolaires des élèves français de 1970 à 2020. En nous appuyant sur les résultats de la France aux enquêtes internationales sur les acquis des élèves, nous proposons une analyse inédite des inégalités scolaires. Nous mesurons le prix de ces inégalités et aboutissons à la conclusion que la croissance économique française aurait progressé de 0, 5 % si une politique d’équité efficace avait été mise en place dès la fin des années 1970. Il s’agit là de la première recherche cliométrique, mobilisant une base de données édumétrique originale et des modalités contrefactuelles, consacrée à la dynamique structurelle et spatiale de la dimension inégalitaire des acquis scolaires en France et dans le monde |
| Keywords: | Qualité de l’éducation, Inégalités éducatives, Enquêtes internationales sur les acquis des élèves, PISA, TIMSS, PIRLS, Cliométrie, Edumétrie. |
| JEL: | C8 I2 N3 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-34 |
| By: | Turati, Riccardo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes whether natives with a network abroad have a distinctive cultural stance compared to similar individuals without such connections within the same region. Using individual-level data on connectedness from the Gallup World Poll across 2, 256 within-country regions over 148 countries, it characterizes the cultural stance based on three traits: pro-social behavior, religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. The paper shows that natives who have a connection abroad are characterized by stronger pro-social behavior, religiosity and genderegalitarian attitudes. To address potential biases arising from omitted variables, it controls for an extensive array of individual characteristics and region-by-year fixed effects. The results are also consistent after employing comprehensive measures of connectedness, employing matching techniques, and assessing selection biases related to unobservable factors. Finally, by leveraging both country and individual-level heterogeneity, the analysis indicates that the pro-social behavior stance of connected individuals is fairly consistent across different contexts and individuals, while the findings on religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes are more sensitive to local and individual factors. The paper therefore shows that factors enhancing or dampening this relation are cultural trait specific. |
| Keywords: | cultural traits, connectedness, social remittances, international migration |
| JEL: | F22 O15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17270 |
| By: | Cesar Barreto; Jonas Fluchtmann; Alexander Hijzen; Stefano Lombardi; Patrick Bennett; Antoine Bertheau; Winnie Chan; Andrei Gorshkov; Jonathan Hambur; Nick Johnstone; Benjamin Lochner; Jordy Meekes; Tahsin Mehdi; Balázs Muraközy; Gulnara Nolan; Kjell Salvanes; Oskar Nordström Skans; Rune Vejlin |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the costs of job displacement in energy-intensive industries in selected OECD countries. Based on harmonised linked employer-employee data from 14 OECD countries, we estimate the effect of job displacement in three energy-intensive industries, namely energy supply, heavy manufacturing and transport, compared to other industries. We find that workers displaced from the energy supply and heavy manufacturing, experience larger earnings losses compared with workers in non-energy-intensive and transport sectors. Larger earnings losses mainly result from weaker re-employment outcomes in terms of wages and job instability but also challenges with finding another job. They reflect significant differences in the composition of workers and firms in energy supply and heavy manufacturing and the rest of the economy. Displaced workers in these sectors tend to be older, are less skilled and more likely to be previously employed in high-wage firms. |
| Keywords: | dismissal, just transition, linked employer-employee data |
| JEL: | J31 J63 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:310-en |
| By: | Catherine Casanova; Eugenio Cerutti; Swapan-Kumar Pradhan |
| Abstract: | While Chinese banks have become the top cross-border lender to EMDEs, their expansion has slowed recently, both in terms of volume and market share. Also, the strong correlation of China’s bilateral trade and its banks’ cross-border lending has weakened, while during 2020-22 lending became more positively correlated with FDI. In our paper, we analyse these patterns and we explore the role of borrower risk variables and foreign policies. Our findings show that, although the shifting correlation from trade to FDI is a general EMDE phenomenon, China’s Belt and Road Initiative reinforces it. By contrast, borrowers that potentially benefit from geoeconomic fragmentation do not display stronger FDI-lending relationships. We also find that Chinese banks exhibit different levels of risk tolerance relative to other bank nationalities as borrower country risk variables are positively correlated with Chinese banks’ market shares, but not with their amounts of cross-border lending. |
| Keywords: | cross-border lending, chinese banks, trade, FDI, borrower indebtedness, pandemic, sanctions, geoeconomic fragmentation |
| JEL: | F34 F36 F65 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1213 |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Kenneth Gillingham; Simon Scheidegger |
| Abstract: | There is a rapidly advancing literature on the macroeconomics of climate change. This review focuses on developments in the construction and solution of structural integrated assessment models (IAMs), highlighting the marriage of state-of-the-art natural science with general equilibrium theory. We discuss challenges in solving dynamic stochastic IAMs with sharp nonlinearities, multiple regions, and multiple sources of risk. Key innovations in deep learning and other machine learning approaches overcome many computational challenges and enhance the accuracy and relevance of policy findings. We conclude with an overview of recent applications of IAMs and key policy insights. |
| JEL: | C61 E27 Q5 Q51 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32963 |
| By: | Utsumi, Daniel; Gasi, Rogério Tavares (Halon Entertainment); Miranda, Monica (Universidade Federal da Bahia); Querino, Emanuel Henrique Gonçalves; Pompeia, Sabine |
| Abstract: | Delay discounting (DD) describes the tendency of individuals to devalue the worth of a reward as a function of the delay in receiving it. DD is impaired in many clinical conditions, and changes across development. Many existing automated DD tasks are built on copyrighted software and primarily designed for English speakers, which hinders content editing and accessibility. Given this scenario, we had three objectives: 1) to develop an open-source DD software named the “Waiting Game” with a user interface (UI) which is easily editable (regarding language, reward type/magnitude and delay duration) via an Excel spreadsheet, and provides automated DD scoring; 2) to create a comprehensive manual (User Guide) to accompany the software; and 3) to assess the software's usability and the clarity of the manual through an online questionnaire completed by experts in cognitive assessment. The software was developed using game design and encompasses three tasks which assess DD under three conditions: 1) hypothetical delays (waiting is imagined) and no real rewards (only points) are gained); 2) real delays (waiting is necessary) and real rewards gained; and 3) real delays and hypothetical rewards. An expert evaluation using the System Usability Scale and the International Test Commission recommendations confirmed the software's suitability. Minor changes were made to the User Guide and UI based on the expert feedback. We conclude that the Waiting Game offers a valid, cost-free, and automated solution for DD assessment that facilitates reward and delay manipulations in hypothetical/real delay and reward paradigms across diverse sociocultural contexts. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:p7ekm |
| By: | Nduka, Eleanya (University of Warwick and UK Energy Research Centre); Jimoh, Modupe (University of Warwick and UK Energy Research Centre) |
| Abstract: | This study utilizes novel data to investigate the impact of cooking energy sources and indoor air pollution on the happiness, life satisfaction, physical, and mental health of women in Nigeria. The existing body of literature relies on ambient air pollution data, which can be limiting in resource-constrained settings. To address this gap, we employ a direct approach, measuring Carbon Monoxide (CO) levels in participants’ blood using the Rad-57 CO-oximeter. Our analysis reveals strong positive correlations between the utilization of clean cooking energy and women’s reported happiness and life satisfaction. Additionally, the study finds that clean cooking energy usage is associated with a significant reduction in mental health problems among women. These findings highlight a substantial disparity in wellbeing based on access to clean cooking energy sources. Furthermore, exposure to carbon monoxide, as measured in this study, demonstrates a detrimental effect on women’s health and overall well-being. Consequently, policymakers and stakeholders should prioritize initiatives that promote household energy access and facilitate the transition to clean cooking practices, especially in rural areas where the use of polluting fuels and exposure to indoor air pollution remain prevalent concerns. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution ; Clean Cooking ; Dirty Cooking ; Energy ; Health ; Happiness ; Mental health ; Well-being ; Women; Poverty. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1515 |
| By: | Camélia Sehaqui (Université Hassan 1er [Settat]); Mohamed Haissoune (Université Hassan 1er [Settat]) |
| Abstract: | This article seeks to analyze the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in counterparty risk management, focusing on Moroccan participatory banks. To this end, the authors first examine the reality of AI and its applications in Islamic finance before exploring how it can evaluate and mitigate the risks inherent to these institutions. The qualitative methodology used is based on semi-structured interviews with eight risk directors from Moroccan participatory banks and windows. The interviews were transcribed and subjected to systematic thematic analysis. The coding process identified recurring themes, which were then grouped into broader categories to identify key trends and perceptions about the use of AI in counterparty risk management. The survey results reveal that none of the banks interviewed currently use AI for counterparty risk management, although they intend to introduce it in the future. The expected benefits include increased accuracy in risk assessment and process optimization through automation. However, potential obstacles include financial constraints and a shortage of AI expertise. Indeed, AI could present promising prospects for strengthening financial stability and ensuring Sharia compliance within participatory banks. For effective integration, investments in resources and AI training are necessary. Overall, the future of AI in counterparty risk management promises to bring innovation and operational efficiency to the participatory finance sector. |
| Abstract: | Le présent article cherche à analyser l'application de l'intelligence artificielle (IA) dans la gestion du risque de contrepartie, en se concentrant sur les banques participatives marocaines. Pour ce faire, les auteurs examinent d'abord la réalité de l'IA et ses applications dans la finance islamique avant d'explorer comment elle peut évaluer et atténuer les risques propres à ces institutions. La méthodologie qualitative retenue se base sur des entretiens semi-directifs avec huit directeurs des risques de banques et fenêtres participatives marocaines. Les entretiens ont été transcrits et soumis à une analyse thématique systématique. Le processus de codage a permis d'identifier des thèmes récurrents, regroupés ensuite en catégories plus larges, afin de dégager des tendances et des perceptions clés sur l'utilisation de l'IA dans la gestion du risque de contrepartie. Les résultats de l'enquête révèlent qu'aucune des banques interrogées n'utilise actuellement l'IA pour la gestion du risque de contrepartie, bien qu'ils aient l'intention de l'introduire dans un avenir proche. Les avantages attendus incluent une précision accrue dans l'évaluation des risques et une optimisation des processus grâce à l'automatisation. Cependant, les obstacles potentiels incluent des contraintes financières et une pénurie d'expertise en IA. En effet, l'IA pourrait présenter des perspectives prometteuses pour renforcer la stabilité financière et garantir la conformité à la Charia au sein des banques participatives. Pour une intégration efficace, des investissements dans les ressources et la formation en IA sont nécessaires. En somme, l'avenir de l'IA dans la gestion du risque de contrepartie promet d'introduire innovation et efficacité opérationnelle dans le secteur de la finance participative. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence AI, Participatory Finance, Risk management, Counterparty Credit Risk, Intelligence Artificielle, Finance Participative, Gestion des risques, Risque de contrepartie |
| Date: | 2024–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04690166 |
| By: | Inbal Dekel; Rachel Cummings; Ori Heffetz; Katrina Ligett |
| Abstract: | Privacy considerations and their effects on behavior are becoming increasingly important. Yet the extremes of full and no privacy are rarely an option. How much does behavior change with small changes in privacy? Dekel et al. (2023) introduce the concept of privacy elasticity, the responsiveness of economic variables to small changes in privacy protections. This concept combines elasticity—a key economic measure of responsiveness of one variable to changes in another—and differential privacy—a computer science theory emerging as the standard tool for protecting and quantifying privacy. Together, they create a measure of privacy elasticity that is portable and comparable across contexts. The applicability of this concept is demonstrated by reviewing how privacy elasticity can be estimated in a public-good lab experiment. |
| JEL: | C91 D82 Z00 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32903 |
| By: | Holcombe, Mike; Coakley, Simon; Kiran, Mariam; Chin, Shawn; Greenough, Chris; Worth, David; Cincotti, Silvano; Raberto, M.; Teglio, Andrea; Deissenberg, Christophe; Hoog, Sander van der; Dawid, Herbert; Gemkow, Simon; Harting, Philipp; Neugart, Michael |
| Abstract: | Following the events of the credit crunch and the onset of a global recession, alternative ways of modeling modern economies and mechanisms for carrying out policy analysis are now an urgent priority. Traditional mathematical economics is widely viewed to have been compromised through gross simplifications with many assumptions that are now seen to be unjustified. New ways of looking at economics that are more grounded in reality are required, and agent-based computational economics is now receiving a lot of attention. Although the ideas are not new, the previous attempts to use this approach have been largely limited by the inability to model realistically large systems with millions of complex agents. Without this capability, the usefulness of the approach is limited. The EU-STREP project EURACE brought together a consortium of leading economists, experts in parallel supercomputing, and the designers of the FLAME framework to build the largest and most complete model of the European Union economy ever built. |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149717 |
| By: | Eiji Yamamura |
| Abstract: | In 1880, Keio, a private school in Japan, was in jeopardy of being closed. To cope with the situation, the school first created a fundraising campaign during the 18801-90 period. The school was established in 1857, and since 1861, the list covering all students academic record has been distributed not only to teachers but also to all students. Individual-level historical academic record was integrated with the list of contributors. Using the data, we compared persons who had learned in Keio before and after the system was introduced. The main findings are presented as follows. first, graduates who share the academic record are more likely to contribute, and their amount of donation is larger; second, the class size is negatively correlated with the likelihood of contribution and with its amount; and third, academic performance, as shown in the list, is positively correlated with the likelihood of contribution but not with the amount of donation, using a sub-sample of those who shared the list. The introduction of the system strengthened the community network and role of social image shared by the members. This resulted in a successful fundraising for the school, an unprecedented feat in the history of Japan. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08415 |
| By: | Piotr Lewandowski; Wojciech Szymczak |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the adoption of automation technologies – industrial robots and software and databases – on the incidence of atypical employment in 13 E.U. countries between 2006 and 2018. We combine survey microdata with sectoral information on technology use and exploit the variation at the demographic group level. Using instrumental variables estimation, we find that industrial robots significantly increase atypical employment share, mostly through involuntary part-time and involuntary fixed-term work. We find no robust effect of software and databases. We also show that the higher trade union coverage mitigates the robots’ impact on atypical employment, while employment protection legislation appears to play no role. Using historical decompositions, we attribute about 1-2 percentage points of atypical employment shares to rising robot exposure, especially in Central and Eastern European countries with low unionisation. |
| Keywords: | robots, automation, atypical employment, trade unions |
| JEL: | J23 J51 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp022024 |
| By: | Bhakta, Sayan; van Heel, Marin |
| Abstract: | Electron microscopy has been an important method for visualising biological structures and processes since the 1940s. The discovery of a practical vitreous-ice specimen-preparation technique in the mid-1980s [Adrian 1984] led to modern-day Cryogenic Electron Microscopy (Cryo-EM) which in recent years has become a major technique for studying the architecture of biological macromolecules. Many further instrumental and data-analysis improvements were established in the decades after the introduction of the “vitreous-ice” state of water. Especially the advent of direct electron detectors boosted the quality of the recorded data, allowing atomic-resolution information of biological complexes to be harvested in the early 2010s, developments that truly revolutionized the use of Cryo-EM in structural biology. Single-Particle Analysis (SPA) of isolated molecules, prepared in a thin layer of vitreous water, has proven a most successful approach in structural biology and now often supplants the use of classical techniques like X-ray crystallography, especially for large biological complexes. The ever-increasing number of researchers using Cryo-EM is reflected by the growing number of depositions in the Electron Microscopy Data Bank (EMDB). Explaining this methodology to a new generation of researchers has now become a priority. In writing this review we were reminded of some persistent confusions that emerged in the early days of Cryo-EM but that continue to muddle the field. A new problem with the prolific use of Graphic User Interfaces (GUIs), is that the underlying methodology is often no longer transparent to the users of these “black boxes”. Complicated procedures, well hidden behind a GUI window, may contain methodological flaws that the user must be aware of. The conquering of markets in this booming Cryo-EM field – crucial for developing new pharmaceuticals – must not prevail over scientific integrity. We here describe and critically review the principles of single-particle Cryo-EM. We warn for procedures that have gone astray and could generate serious problems especially in the quality-control of Single-Particle Cryogenic Electron Microscopy. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5empt |
| By: | Jüppner, Marcus; Martin, Anika; Radke-Arden, Lucas |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency improvements are a key component on the road towards a carbonneutral economy. We identify the development of energy efficiency in the data and show that in recent decades it has increased at the aggregate level. At the sectoral level, however, the development in energy efficiency was highly heterogenous. We, then, analyse the effects of exogenous improvements in energy saving technology by means of Environmental Multi-Sector Model EMuSe. According to the model, sustained exogenous gains in energy saving technology increase output while, at the same time, reduce emissions energy use and energy intensity. Thereby, they attenuate the model-implied negative co-movement of output and emissions that results from the introduction or an intensified increase of an emission price schedule. However, if energy efficiency evolves as during the last decades and the emission price follows the currently intended schedule in the national and EU-wide emissions trading system, the model predicts that the emissions reduction by 2030 set by the German Federal Climate Change Act cannot be met. It additionally requires a higher emission price or larger (exogenous) energy efficiency gains. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:303049 |
| By: | Mark A. Aguiar; Benjamin Moll; Florian Scheuer |
| Abstract: | Standard optimal capital tax theory abstracts from modeling asset prices, making it unsuitable for thinking about capital gains and wealth taxation. We study optimal redistributive taxation in an environment with asset price changes, adopting the modern finance view that asset prices fluctuate not only because of changing cash flows, but also due to other factors (“discount rates”). We show that the optimal tax base (i) generally differs from the case with constant asset prices, and (ii) depends on the sources of asset-price changes. Whenever asset prices fluctuate, and are not exclusively driven by cash flow changes, taxes must target realized trades and generally involve a combination of realization-based capital gains and dividend taxes. This result stands in contrast to the classic Haig-Simons comprehensive income tax concept, as well as recent proposals for wealth or accrual-based capital gains taxes. |
| JEL: | E6 H21 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32951 |
| By: | Takeo Hori (Department of Industrial Engineering and Economics, School of Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology); Ryonghun Im (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University); Hiroshi Nakaota (Faculty of Economics, Osaka University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Increases in the price-to-dividend ratio (PDR) have been observed during bubble periods. However, in the 2010s, asset prices have surged to bubble-era levels without a rise in the PDR. Based on this observation, we construct a macroeconomic model in which asset prices can be high or low under a constant PDR. In both equilibria, asset prices are entirely determined by the sum of expected future dividends and influence macroeconomic performance. The high asset price stimulates capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | asset bubbles, fundamental value, credit constraints, self-fulfilling expectation, multiple equilibria |
| JEL: | E44 G01 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:278 |
| By: | Cordella, Antonio; Gualdi, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the influence of algorithms on the administrative processes within public organizations, utilizing the foundational theory of formalization from Walsh and Dewar (1987) as a framework. Introduces the concept of “algorithmic formalization”, a new form of formalization induced by the adoption of algorithms, which fundamentally alters administrative workflows. Focusing on COMPAS algorithm used in the US judiciary for risk assessment, the paper illustrates how the algorithm serves multiple roles – as code, channel, and standard – systematizing administrative processes related to risk assessment and judicial decisions. By delving into COMPAS case study, the research sheds light on the novel concept of algorithmic formalization, emphasizing its significant repercussions for analyzing and applying algorithmic administrative processes. |
| Keywords: | Wiley deal |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124520 |
| By: | Shin, Hyun Bang |
| Abstract: | While appreciating the novelty of conceptualizing urban state venturism, this commentary proposes that the state’s role as capital can be clearly evidenced by the urbanization of state capital, which involves the active deployment of state-owned corporations in the global East amid the region’s pursuit of rapid and developmental urbanization and industrialization. |
| Keywords: | urban state venturism; urbanization of state capital; state capitalism; state developmentalism; global East |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125354 |
| By: | Pisarkiewicz, Anna Renata; Parcu, Pier Luigi |
| Abstract: | The digital economy, which keeps transforming how people and businesses interact and operate, has certain distinctive characteristics that pose unique challenges for regulators. It is highly dynamic and driven by innovation, which in comparison to the past, happens at a much faster pace and is more disruptive. It is technology-based and, more than before, data-driven, which means that it requires notable ICT and analytic capabilities and the ability to interpret and make decisions based on vast amounts of data. For example, to understand the economies of scale in search and the value of targeted advertising, the UK CMA requested and analysed over 4TB of data from Google and Bing during its market study on digital advertising (Hunt, 2022). Moreover, the digital economy with its corresponding digital regulations is increasingly complex and interconnected, making it difficult for regulators to understand and coherently regulate specific problems or components without examining entire digital and regulatory ecosystems. The digital economy also transcends traditional sectoral silos as well as territorial and jurisdictional limitations, thereby presenting challenges in terms of ensuring harmonized regulatory frameworks and effective compliance across different national authorities and different geographical realities. The German Facebook (Meta) case and the subsequent preliminary ruling from the EU perfectly illustrate both the increasingly blurred lines between data protection and competition law enforcement as well as a need for coordination and collaboration between the respective regulators. Finally, the global and interconnected nature of the digital economy creates important dependencies and vulnerabilities that regulators must understand and navigate, which exposes regulation to geopolitical tensions. The interplay between merger control and foreign direct investment (FDI) screening, for example, in cases involving semiconductors shows how regulatory frameworks must adapt to address these dependencies and vulnerabilities, ensuring that economic considerations are balanced with national security interests amidst rising geopolitical tensions. |
| Keywords: | Regulatory agility, digital markets, enforcement, VUCA framework, collaborative regulation, technological gap, technological proficiency, innovative policymaking, competences |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302491 |
| By: | Thomas Buser (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | I analyze Dutch panel data that contains rich information on voting, political opinions, and personality traits. I show that "adversarial" preferences – competitiveness, negative reciprocity, distrust, and selfishness – are strong predictors of right-wing and populist political preferences. Their explanatory power is similar to that of a rich set of socioeconomic status indicators – including income, education and occupation – and robust to non-parametrically controlling for them. I replicate previously studied associations between classic personality traits and political preferences, and show that adversarial preferences predict voting independently from these traits – and often with larger effect sizes. The complex Dutch party landscape allows me to go further than simple left-right comparisons to differentiate parties along an economic left-right axis, a social progressive-conservative axis, and a populism axis. Competitiveness predicts voting for economically right-wing parties, whereas negative reciprocity, distrust, and selfishness are stronger predictors of voting for socially conservative and populist parties. |
| Keywords: | voting, political preferences, personality, competitiveness, reciprocity |
| JEL: | D72 D9 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240001 |
| By: | Moleka, Pitshou Basikabio |
| Abstract: | In an era of rapid technological advancements, complex global challenges, and intense market competition, the ability to generate and scale innovative solutions has become a critical imperative for organizations, policymakers, and societies worldwide. However, the existing academic landscape has lacked a cohesive, multidisciplinary framework for comprehensively understanding the multifaceted nature of innovation. Innovationology, a newly established scientific discipline, aims to address this gap by providing a unifying, transdisciplinary approach to the study and practice of transformative innovation. This comprehensive article introduces Innovationology as a cutting-edge science that integrates insights from diverse fields, including management, psychology, sociology, economics, and technology studies. Innovationology posits that innovation is a multilayered, context-dependent phenomenon, shaped by the intricate interplay of individual, team, organizational, and ecosystem-level factors. By synthesizing the latest theoretical advancements and empirical evidence, this article presents a holistic model of Innovationology that illuminates the key determinants of radical, game-changing innovations capable of disrupting existing industries and creating new market spaces. The article delves deep into the individual cognitive, behavioral, and motivational drivers of innovativeness, the team dynamics and organizational structures that foster collaborative innovation, and the ecosystem-level characteristics that catalyze the emergence and scaling of transformative innovations. Importantly, the article explores the crucial role of contextual factors, such as socio-cultural norms, institutional support, and resource availability, in shaping innovation outcomes. This article also establishes the epistemological foundations of Innovationology, grounding it in a transdisciplinary, holistic, and pragmatic approach to knowledge generation. Innovationology embraces a pluralistic epistemology that acknowledges the complexity and context-dependence of innovation, drawing on diverse methodological approaches to capture the multifaceted nature of this phenomenon. Furthermore, the article outlines the object of Innovationology, which is to provide a comprehensive, evidence-based understanding of the drivers, processes, and outcomes of transformative innovation. Innovationology seeks to elucidate the multilevel determinants of innovation, the dynamic interplay between various factors, and the contextual influences that shape innovation trajectories. By establishing a unifying, transdisciplinary framework, Innovationology aims to bridge the gap between innovation theory and practice, empowering a wide range of stakeholders to unlock the transformative potential of innovation. Importantly, this article outlines the practical applications of Innovationology, providing comprehensive strategies and evidence-based interventions for cultivating innovative mindsets, designing innovation-conducive organizational systems, and navigating the challenges of innovative ecosystems. The implications of Innovationology for entrepreneurs, corporate leaders, policymakers, and innovation scholars are discussed in detail. By establishing Innovationology as a distinct, authoritative scientific discipline, this article sets the foundation for a more holistic, context-sensitive understanding of innovation and its multifaceted drivers. The insights generated by this new science can empower global organizations, institutions, and policymakers to address the complex, interconnected challenges of the 21st century through the strategic deployment of transformative innovations. |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:f3scj |
| By: | Beata Cichocka (Center for Global Development); Ian Mitchell (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies and evaluates China's bilateral, regional, and multilateral climate-related development finance from the Belt and Road Initiative's inception in 2013 until 2021, shedding light on its substantial but often opaque contributions. Our analysis suggests that China has provided an annual average of nearly $4 billion for climate to developing countries since 2013, totalling over $34 billion by 2021, primarily through bilateral channels through lending from its policy banks. Recently, China's climate finance through multilateral institutions has substantially increased. However, this increase has been coupled with declines in China’s bilateral climate-relevant finance, which fell from over $6 billion in 2017 to under $1 billion in 2021, outpacing the decline of China’s overall development finance. Separately, we find China has made significant ongoing fossil fuel investments in developing countries, amounting to over double its climate-relevant finance over the period. Since 2017, the Chinese government has made commitments to “green” its outward cooperation, and outbound fossil fuel finance fell below climate-related finance for the first time in 2021. Although China remains a “developing” country and recipient of climate finance, it is now a net provider of climate support, suggesting it is already positioned to contribute to a new UN climate finance goal to be agreed for beyond 2025. Overall, this paper seeks to contribute to debates on China’s role in the international climate finance architecture and emphasizes the potential for other development actors to further engage China in multilateral climate cooperation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:339 |
| By: | Mark Voorneveld |
| Abstract: | Fourier-Motzkin elimination, a standard method for solving systems of linear inequalities, leads to an elementary, short, and self-contained proof of von Neumann's minimax theorem. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.11504 |
| By: | Herreros, Sebastián; Durán, José; Olmos, Ximena |
| Abstract: | El presente documento tiene por objeto presentar una evaluación preliminar de los principales productos exportados por América Latina y el Caribe a la UE que podrían verse afectados por la entrada integral en vigor del RD, identificando asimismo a los países cuyos envíos a ese mercado presentan una mayor concentración de dichos productos. El resto del documento se estructura como sigue. En la sección I se presentan las principales disposiciones del RD y las demandas de información que generará para los productores de la región. A continuación, en la sección II se examinan las tendencias regionales de la producción y el comercio de los productos incluidos en el RD en las últimas dos décadas. En la sección III se hace un análisis de los principales productos exportados por la región que podrían verse impactados por dicha norma, tomando como referencia los flujos comerciales en 2022. Por su parte, en la sección IV se estiman los potenciales impactos del RD en materia de empleo en la región. La sección V se concentra específicamente en los desafíos que dicho instrumento presenta a los pequeños productores latinoamericanos de cacao y café. Por último, en la sección VI se presentan algunas reflexiones finales. |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col025:80690 |
| By: | Jun He; Andrew L. Liu |
| Abstract: | The integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into wholesale energy markets can greatly enhance grid flexibility, improve market efficiency, and contribute to a more sustainable energy future. As DERs -- such as solar PV panels and energy storage -- proliferate, effective mechanisms are needed to ensure that small prosumers can participate meaningfully in these markets. We study a wholesale market model featuring multiple DER aggregators, each controlling a portfolio of DER resources and bidding into the market on behalf of the DER asset owners. The key of our approach lies in recognizing the repeated nature of market interactions the ability of participants to learn and adapt over time. Specifically, Aggregators repeatedly interact with each other and with other suppliers in the wholesale market, collectively shaping wholesale electricity prices (aka the locational marginal prices (LMPs)). We model this multi-agent interaction using a mean-field game (MFG), which uses market information -- reflecting the average behavior of market participants -- to enable each aggregator to predict long-term LMP trends and make informed decisions. For each aggregator, because they control the DERs within their portfolio under certain contract structures, we employ a mean-field control (MFC) approach (as opposed to a MFG) to learn an optimal policy that maximizes the total rewards of the DERs under their management. We also propose a reinforcement learning (RL)-based method to help each agent learn optimal strategies within the MFG framework, enhancing their ability to adapt to market conditions and uncertainties. Numerical simulations show that LMPs quickly reach a steady state in the hybrid mean-field approach. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the combination of energy storage and mean-field learning significantly reduces price volatility compared to scenarios without storage. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00107 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on economic growth in Nigeria from 2010 to 2019. Using the ordinary least square regression methodology, the findings reveal that foreign direct investment inflows do not have a significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The result holds when different measures of economic growth and different measures of foreign direct investment inflows are employed. Meanwhile, population size, real interest rate, domestic private credit and the inflation rate are significant determinants of economic growth in Nigeria while gross capital formation is an insignificant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria. The implication of the findings is that policy makers in Nigeria should focus on other drivers of economic growth other than foreign direct investment inflows when developing policy initiatives to stimulate economic growth in Nigeria. |
| Keywords: | Nigeria, foreign direct investment, economic growth, gross capital formation, GDP, inflation, domestic private credit, population, interest rate, GDP growth |
| JEL: | F13 F18 F31 F38 O47 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122167 |
| By: | Xuyang Chen |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the OECD's global minimum tax (GMT) affects multinational enterprises (MNEs) behavior and countries' corporate taxes. We consider both profit shifting and capital investment responses of the MNE in a formal model of tax competition between asymmetric countries. The GMT reduces the true tax rate differential and benefits the large country, while the revenue effect is generally ambiguous for the small country. In the short run where tax rates are fixed, due to tax deduction of the substance-based income exclusion (SBIE), a higher minimum rate exerts investment incentives but also incurs a larger revenue loss for the small country. We show that under high (low) profit shifting costs the former (latter) effect dominates so that the small country's revenue increases (decreases). In the long run where countries can adjust tax rates, the GMT reshapes the tax game and the competition pattern. In contrast to the existing literature, we reveal that the minimum rate binds the small country only if it is low. With the rise of the GMT rate, countries will undercut the minimum to boost real investments and collect top-up taxes. For small market-size asymmetry and intermediate profit shifting cost, the revenue loss from the elimination of profit shifting may dominate the revenue gain from taxing the true profits generated by substantive activities, so that even a marginal GMT reform may harm the small country. Otherwise, it can raise the small country's tax revenue. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.05397 |
| By: | Arthur B. Nelson; Dmitry Ryvkin |
| Abstract: | We study experimentally contests in which players make investment decisions sequentially, and information on prior investments is revealed between stages. Using a between-subject design, we consider all possible sequences in contests of three players and test two major comparative statics of the subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium: The positive effect of the number of stages on aggregate investment and earlier mover advantage. The former prediction is decidedly rejected, as we observe a reduction in aggregate investment when more sequential information disclosure stages are added to the contest. The evidence on earlier mover advantage is mixed but mostly does not support theory as well. Both predictions rely critically on large preemptive investment by first movers and accommodation by later movers, which does not materialize. Instead, later movers respond aggressively, and reciprocally, to first movers' investments, while first movers learn to accommodate those responses. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.06230 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Joseph Nnanna (Abuja, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This research investigates how enhancing remittances affects total factor productivity (TFP) dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) empirical strategy is adopted for the purpose of the study and the engaged TFP dynamics are: TFP, real TFP, welfare TFP and real welfare TFP. Significant net effects are not apparent from enhancing remittances for TFP, real TFP growth and welfare TFP while positive net effects are apparent on real welfare TFP. The unexpected findings are elucidated and policy implications are discussed. This study has complemented the attendant literature by assessing how growing remittances influence dynamics of TFP in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | Economic Output; Remitances; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | E23 F24 F30 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/021 |
| By: | Hsu, Wen-Yi |
| Abstract: | Structural hole theory can be used to explain the advantages of an individual or firms in the economic structure. From a network perspective, this study analyzes the relationship between local OTT operators in Taiwan, the relationship with large international OTTs, and the bridges or structural hole spanners. The researcher conducted semi-structured interviews with major players in Taiwan's OTT industry, and employs the grounded theory approach, systematically inducting and analyzing data. Based on the perspectives of local OTT operators describing the main competitors in the Taiwanese OTT market, the research identifies major international OTT, particularly Netflix, as the hub and structural hole spanner. This study maps 'Taiwan's OTT industry structural holes', and further explore whether Taiwan's local OTT operators are able to act as bridges or structural hole spanners. This research found that relationships among local Taiwanese players are loose, with most situated at the periphery of the industry network; Netflix serves as a network bridge. Netflix occupies the central position in Taiwan's OTT industry network as a structural hole spanner. Netflix benefits from being a structural hole spanner., while local Taiwanese players do not form mutually beneficial partnerships. The connection between local Taiwanese OTT players and international operator increasingly exhibits reinforced structural holes. The existence of structural holes in Taiwan's OTT industry and the possibility for local operators to gain advantages. This study also proposes types and analysis of structural holes in Taiwan's OTT industry and analysis of structural holes for local OTT operators in Taiwan. This underscores the limited key resources of local operators. Overall, there is no significant advantage for domestic operators. To remain competitive, local OTT operators must seek new opportunities within these structural holes |
| Keywords: | OTT, center-periphery theory, structural hole theory, qualitative structural analysis |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302473 |
| By: | Song, Lei (University of California, Santa Barbara); Frazier, Amy E (Arizona State University); Crawford, Christopher L.; Estes, Anna Bond; Estes, Lyndon |
| Abstract: | Producing sufficient food to meet a growing population while minimizing the ecological impacts of agricultural expansion is a major world challenge. We aim to optimize the spatial allocation of future cropland in a manner that balances agricultural and ecological priorities, and test scenarios to reduce the need for cropland expansion to meet future food demands. We design a spatial trade-off model that linearly aggregates multiple land use objectives with flexibly- assigned weights to identify optimal areas for cropland expansion. We apply this model in Tanzania, where conservation of its biodiverse ecosystems is often in conflict with agriculture, to evaluate how various decision-making factors impact future cropland allocation and the associated ecological impacts. The model considers potential yield of five key crops (maize, paddy rice, sorghum, cassava, and common beans) along with travel time to markets (as an indicator for market proximity), and costs to biodiversity, carbon sequestration and landscape connectivity. Results show that compared to only considering crop yields, a hybrid solution, which equally considers multiple factors in decision-making, reduced travel time to markets by 25.4%, biodiversity loss by 1.4%, carbon loss by 0.8%, and connectivity loss by 27.5%, while only increasing land demand by 2.6%. Furthermore, increasing cropland area usage intensity and expanding the cultivation of high-yield crops can effectively boost food production, with the potential to double the current production only using existing cropland. |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4xnwb |
| By: | Aner Sela (BGU); Chen Cohen (BGU); Ishay Rabi (BGU) |
| JEL: | D44 D72 D82 J31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:2408 |
| By: | Adrian Casillas; Maryam Farboodi; Layla Hashemi; Maryam Saeedi; Steven Wilson |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, social media platforms have emerged as prominent vehicles for displaying dissent. In response, various actors have increasingly spread fake news on these platforms to impair the opposition—the (dis)information war. We analyze a methodology to identify disinformation using network-based characteristics of the news initiators, and use data from Twitter (now X) to assess the effectiveness of this method in limiting the spread of disinformation. We find that it detects at least 85% of verified instances of disinformation without misidentifying any true news, and reduces both account engagement and lifespan of disinformation by at least a factor of two, highlighting the importance of swift discovery of disinformation to interrupt its exponential spread. |
| JEL: | A13 D72 L82 P0 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32896 |
| By: | Jiefei Yang; Guanglian Li |
| Abstract: | We present a new deep primal-dual backward stochastic differential equation framework based on stopping time iteration to solve optimal stopping problems. A novel loss function is proposed to learn the conditional expectation, which consists of subnetwork parameterization of a continuation value and spatial gradients from present up to the stopping time. Notable features of the method include: (i) The martingale part in the loss function reduces the variance of stochastic gradients, which facilitates the training of the neural networks as well as alleviates the error propagation of value function approximation; (ii) this martingale approximates the martingale in the Doob-Meyer decomposition, and thus leads to a true upper bound for the optimal value in a non-nested Monte Carlo way. We test the proposed method in American option pricing problems, where the spatial gradient network yields the hedging ratio directly. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.06937 |
| By: | Iv\'an Fern\'andez-Val; Jonas Meier; Aico van Vuuren; Francis Vella |
| Abstract: | We provide a simple distribution regression estimator for treatment effects in the difference-in-differences (DiD) design. Our procedure is particularly useful when the treatment effect differs across the distribution of the outcome variable. Our proposed estimator easily incorporates covariates and, importantly, can be extended to settings where the treatment potentially affects the joint distribution of multiple outcomes. Our key identifying restriction is that the counterfactual distribution of the treated in the untreated state has no interaction effect between treatment and time. This assumption results in a parallel trend assumption on a transformation of the distribution. We highlight the relationship between our procedure and assumptions with the changes-in-changes approach of Athey and Imbens (2006). We also reexamine two existing empirical examples which highlight the utility of our approach. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.02311 |
| By: | Kristy Jansen; Hyun Song Shin; Goetz von Peter |
| Abstract: | How do exchange rates affect the asset allocation of bond portfolio investors? Using detailed security-level holdings, we find that euro area-based investors systematically shed sovereign bonds as the dollar strengthens, confirming the role of the dollar as a global risk factor even for euro-based investors. More distinctively, they also shed local currency bonds when the euro strengthens, due to currency mismatches on their own balance sheets. There is no such effect for foreign currency bonds of the same sovereign issuers. These findings are consistent with a Value-at-Risk portfolio choice model that brings out separate roles for local, foreign and reference currencies. |
| Keywords: | Currency mismatch, balance sheet effects, emerging markets, exchange rates, institutional investors, sovereign bonds |
| JEL: | F31 G11 G15 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1210 |
| By: | Pardy, Martina; Riom, Capucine; Hoffmann, Roman |
| Abstract: | Worsening climatic conditions are a significant threat to livelihoods, health and well-being worldwide. In this paper, we estimate the impact of temperature and precipitation anomalies on inequality and poverty using a dataset combining comprehensive climatological data with subnational regional wealth and inequality measures derived from the Demographic and Health Surveys for 52 countries and 453 regions. Using the International Wealth Index as a comparative measure of material wealth, we find a significant impact of temperature anomalies on the distribution of material wealth. We estimate that an average temperature anomaly of one standard deviation in the past 4 years increases the regional Gini coefficient by 0.018 points and increases the share of extremely poor households by 4.1 percent. The impacts are stronger in rural areas. We find that temperature anomalies affect inequality through multiple channels, including agricultural employment, the deterioration of assets, decreased economic activity, higher unemployment and worsened access to healthcare. The impacts of precipitation anomalies on inequality, on the other hand, are more ambiguous. |
| Keywords: | environment; inequality; regional development |
| JEL: | Q56 I31 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125447 |
| By: | Manuel Arellano; Orazio Attanasio; Samuel Crossman; Víctor Sancibrián |
| Abstract: | We develop a methodology for modeling household income processes when subjective probabilistic assessments of future income are available. This allows us to flexibly estimate conditional cdfs directly using elicited individual subjective probabilities, and to obtain empirical measurements of subjective risk and persistence. We then use two longitudinal surveys collected in rural India and rural Colombia to explore the nature of income dynamics in those contexts. Our results suggest linear income processes are rejected in favor of more flexible versions in both cases; subjective income distributions feature heteroskedasticity, conditional skewness and nonlinear persistence. |
| JEL: | C1 C42 J3 O12 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32922 |
| By: | Anton Pichler; Jan Hurt; Tobias Reisch; Johannes Stangl; Stefan Thurner |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input-output model. Our results show that potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management, and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07981 |
| By: | Kristin F. Butcher; Deniz Civril; Sari Pekkala Kerr |
| Abstract: | We use the Longitudinal Business Database to examine the impact of state-level paid parental leave laws in California, New Jersey, and Rhode Island on firms. Our main estimation strategy uses multi-unit firms and compares within-firm changes in outcomes for establishments in treated and untreated states. We find that paid parental leave laws reduce employment in firms’ establishments in treated states. We investigate heterogeneity of the effects by pre-mandate share of workers in an industry that were women, and find that there is no systematic evidence that firms reduce employment more in industries with a higher share of women employees. |
| Keywords: | Paid Leave; Employment; Productivity |
| JEL: | H75 J13 J18 J21 J23 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:98827 |
| By: | Suzanne J Konzelmann |
| Abstract: | There is a strong resonance between events of the inter-war years and today. These include a questioning of laissez-faire capitalism and austerity, and the rise of so-called “populist” parties on both the left and right. Clara Mattei’s (2022) The Capital Order: How Economists Invented Austerity and Paved the Way to Fascism thus makes an interesting contribution, by locating the key argument of her book in the febrile period of European history between the wars. According to Mattei, the First World War disrupted the pre-war capitalist system to such an extent that it created a crisis of capitalism, itself. As a result, following the end of hostilities, there was a conscious effort to restore the pre-war “capital order” by means of a technocratic “austerity strategy”; and this was strongly linked to the rise of fascism. We argue that the inter-relationship between capitalism, austerity and fascism during the 1920s and 1930s was rather more complex, and that to make sense of this, it is necessary to broaden the focus beyond Italy and Great Britain and the international financial conferences at Brussels (1920) and Genoa (1922). Otherwise, we risk misunderstanding and mis-diagnosing our own times, as those inter-war politicians, financiers and economists discovered to their cost. We therefore also include Germany and the United States and base our analysis on the events of the entire inter-war period. |
| Keywords: | Laissez-faire capitalism, fascism, austerity, insecurity cycle, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Polanyi |
| JEL: | N12 N14 P1 P30 P52 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp540 |
| By: | Jihane Saousane Mahi (Université Aboubekr Belkaid - University of Belkaïd Abou Bekr [Tlemcen]); Souhila Ghomari (Université Aboubekr Belkaid - University of Belkaïd Abou Bekr [Tlemcen]) |
| Abstract: | Maintaining essential skills is a challenge for organizations today. This study investigates the relationship between Knowledge Management (KM) and Quality of Work Life (QWL) to address the lack of exploration in this domain. Our goal is a comprehensive literature review to reveal the impact of KM practices on QWL. By employing a qualitative methodology, our study concludes that effective implementation of KM strategies is critical in influencing positive QWL outcomes. We propose essential strategies for optimal KM integration in the workplace. |
| Keywords: | knowledge management KM quality of work life QWL literature review JEL Classification Codes: O32, J28, C80, knowledge management, KM, quality of work life, QWL, literature review JEL Classification Codes: O32 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680601 |
| By: | Ms. Maria-Angels Oliva; Nika Khinashvili |
| Abstract: | In a 157 emerging markets and developing countries sample, remittances continue to grow fast, outpacing other financial inflows (as a share of GDP), particularly in Asia. Without alternative policy instruments, foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) have often been the authorities’ go-to tool to manage the short-term effects of these remittance inflows. However, this practice comes at a cost. This paper shows that FXIs are quick, temporary solutions that often may hinder the development of the recipient country’s financial sector and may not support financial stability over the medium term. The analysis suggests that FXIs act as an insurance tool that, by mitigating FX volatility, protect remittance recipients and tradable sectors from FX risks, encouraging less bank deposits (consistent with more spending) and lower buffers in the banking sector. These costs add to other direct FXI-related costs already identified in the literature. The development of private sector market risk management tools should support longer-term structural reforms required to increase the absorptive capacity of additional FX inflows. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/191 |
| By: | Shen Li; Yuyang Zhang; Zhaolin Ren; Claire Liang; Na Li; Julie A. Shah |
| Abstract: | Binary human choice feedback is widely used in interactive preference learning for its simplicity, but it provides limited information about preference strength. To overcome this limitation, we leverage human response times, which inversely correlate with preference strength, as complementary information. Our work integrates the EZ-diffusion model, which jointly models human choices and response times, into preference-based linear bandits. We introduce a computationally efficient utility estimator that reformulates the utility estimation problem using both choices and response times as a linear regression problem. Theoretical and empirical comparisons with traditional choice-only estimators reveal that for queries with strong preferences ("easy" queries), choices alone provide limited information, while response times offer valuable complementary information about preference strength. As a result, incorporating response times makes easy queries more useful. We demonstrate this advantage in the fixed-budget best-arm identification problem, with simulations based on three real-world datasets, consistently showing accelerated learning when response times are incorporated. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.05798 |
| By: | Álvaro Castillo; Ana Sofía León; Antonio Martner; Matías Tapia |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of idiosyncratic firm shocks on the earnings and employment trajectories of workers. We use a matched employer-employee census between 2007 and 2019 for Chile, a developing economy with a significant degree of earnings inequality. The dataset allows us to explore different dimensions of heterogeneity for workers. Our results suggest that the pass-through of changes in firm sales on the wages of continuing workers can be significant, especially for large negative shocks, and that the effects vary significantly with labor market conditions. We show that responses along the extensive margin of employment also play a relevant role, as workers can face a significant risk of displacement. Our findings suggest that considering the earnings of workers who leave the firm after a negative shock provides a more precise assessment of how firms transfer risks to workers since displacement can have relevant implications. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1010 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Therese E. Zogo (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Mariette C. N. Mete (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Barbara Deladem Mensah (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The present study assesses the relevance of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in the effect of financial access on gender economic inclusion in 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 2004 to 2018. The adopted empirical strategy is interactive quantile regressions that are tailored to account for both simultaneity and unobserved heterogeneity. Two MFIs dynamics are employed: MFIs per 1000km2 and MFIs per 100 000 adults. Financial access is measured in terms of female ownership of bank accounts while gender inclusion is in terms of reducing female unemployment. MFIs per 1000 km2 must reach thresholds of between 2.328 and 2.490 at the 90th quantile of the female unemployment distribution in order for female ownership of bank account to reduce female unemployment. The partial validity of the tested hypothesis is clarified and policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Microfinance; Gender; Inclusive development |
| JEL: | G20 I10 I32 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/036 |
| By: | Rhys Murrian (Department of Economics and SoDa Labs, Monash University); Paul A. Raschky (Department of Economics and SoDa Labs, Monash University); Klaus Ackermann (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics and SoDa Labs, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates how an individual’s network influences their purchase and subsequent use of experience goods. Utilising data on the network and game-ownership of over 108 million users from the world’s largest video game platform, we analyse whether a user’s friendship network influences their decision to purchase single-player video games. Our identification strategy uses an instrumental variable (IV) approach that employs the temporal lag of purchasing decisions from second degree friends. We find strong peer effects in the individual game adoption in the contemporary week. The effect is stronger if the friend who purchased the game is an old friend compared to a key player in the friendship network. Comparing the results to adoption decisions for a major label game, we find peer effects of a similar size and duration. However, the time subsequently spent playing the games is higher for players who were neither influenced by a peer who is a key player nor an old friend. Considering the increasing importance of online networks on consumption decisions, our findings offer some first insights on the heterogeneity of peer effects between old and key player friends and also provide evidence in consumers' biases in social learning. |
| Keywords: | networks, experience goods, product adoption, taste projection |
| JEL: | D12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajr:sodwps:2024-03 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Therese E. Zogo (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Mariette C. N. Mete (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Barbara Deladem Mensah (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The present study assesses the relevance of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in the effect of financial access on gender economic inclusion in 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 2004 to 2018. The adopted empirical strategy is interactive quantile regressions that are tailored to account for both simultaneity and unobserved heterogeneity. Two MFIs dynamics are employed: MFIs per 1000km2 and MFIs per 100 000 adults. Financial access is measured in terms of female ownership of bank accounts while gender inclusion is in terms of reducing female unemployment. MFIs per 1000 km2 must reach thresholds of between 2.328 and 2.490 at the 90th quantile of the female unemployment distribution in order for female ownership of bank account to reduce female unemployment. The partial validity of the tested hypothesis is clarified and policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Microfinance; Gender; Inclusive development |
| JEL: | G20 I10 I32 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:24/009 |
| By: | Cassandre Burnier |
| Abstract: | Le phénomène des données massives suscite de nombreux discours, qu’ils soient scientifiques, politiques ou journalistiques, notamment sur ce qu’elles font à la démocratie. Cependant, les travailleurs de la donnée, et plus largement, le processus de fabrication de cette donnée dans les médias, organe démocratique majeur, sont peu étudiés. Cette thèse propose d’étudier la fabrique de données massives à partir d’une ethnographie portant sur différents départements informatiques d’organisations médiatiques belges francophones. Pour ce faire, elle s’appuie sur quatre techniques d’enquête – shadowing, observations directe et participante, ainsi que des entretiens –, mobilisées de façon itérative. En articulant trois courants académiques que sont l’économie politique, l’analyse stratégique de la sociologie des organisations et l’approche constitutive de la communication organisationnelle, le cadrage théorique propose une approche communicationnelle de l’organisation médiatique en montrant qu’elle se constitue au fil des interactions entre agents humains et autres-qu’humains. Les résultats montrent ce que la donnée fait (faire) aux acteurs de l’organisation médiatique, et inversement, ce que ces derniers lui font faire, en interrogeant cette dynamique en termes de rôles, d’identités, de sens, de règles et de pouvoir. Comme je le montrerai, les différents agencements produits par les interactions participent à façonner une réalité organisationnelle orientée sur la quantification, l’automatisation et la convergence d’agents. L’objectif est de montrer comment le couple donnée-travailleur reconfigure l’organisation et par-delà, conditionne l’accès des citoyens à l’information. |
| Keywords: | Donnée massive; Communication Constitutive des Organisations; Identité; Pouvoir; Sociologie des organisations; Shadowing |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/377490 |
| By: | Mikhail Chernov; Magnus Dahlquist; Lars A. Lochstoer |
| Abstract: | We show that a small set of emerging markets with floating exchange rates expand the investment frontier substantially relative to G10 currencies. The frontier is characterized by an out-of-sample mean-variance efficient portfolio that prices G10- and emerging markets-based trading strategies unconditionally as well as conditionally. Our approach reveals that returns to prominent trading strategies are largely driven by factors that do not command a risk premium. After real-time hedging of such unpriced risks, the Sharpe ratios of these strategies increase substantially, providing new benchmarks for currency pricing models. For instance, the Sharpe ratio of the carry strategy increases from 0.71 to 1.29. The unpriced risks are related to geographically-based currency factors, while the priced risk that drives currency risk premiums is related to aggregate consumption exposure. |
| JEL: | F31 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32900 |
| By: | Lambert, Claudia; Larkou, Chloe; Pancaro, Cosimo; Pellicani, Antonella; Sintonen, Meri |
| Abstract: | By applying a structural demand model to unique consumer-level survey data from the euro area, we assess how different CBDC design options, combined with individual (revealed) preferences, influence the potential demand for a digital euro. Estimating the demand for a digital euro, we find that if it were unconstrained, it could range, in steady state, between 3-28% of household liquid assets or €0.12 - €1.11 trillion, depending on whether consumers would perceive the digital euro to be more cash-like or deposit-like. With an illustrative €3, 000 holding limit per person, it could instead range between 2-9% or €0.10 -€0.38 trillion. Privacy, automatic funding, and instant settlement raise its potential demand. JEL Classification: E41, E50, E58 |
| Keywords: | Central bank digital currency, demand estimation, design attributes, structural model |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242980 |
| By: | Darr, Justin |
| Abstract: | The UC Davis Campus Travel Survey is an annual survey led by Transportation Services (TS)—formerly known as Transportation and Parking Services (TAPS)—and the National Center for Sustainable Transportation (NCST), part of the Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS) at UC Davis. It collects a rich set of data about travel to the UC Davis campus, demographics, and attitudes toward travel. The 2023-24 survey collected data from 4, 774 people affiliated with UC Davis about their travel to campus during a single week in October and November 2023. It used a stratified random sampling method with the intent to gather a representative sample of the campus population. About 14 percent of those invited responded to this year’s survey. For the statistics presented throughout this report, we weight the responses by campus role (freshman, sophomore, junior, senior, Master’s, PhD, faculty, and staff) and gender so that the proportion of respondents in each group reflects their proportion in the campus population. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, College students, Mode choice, Travel behavior, Travel surveys, Universities and colleges |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5vf1b6s1 |
| By: | Chuang, Shih-Hsien; Holian, Matthew; Pattison, Nathaniel; Ramakrishnan, Prasanthi |
| Abstract: | Funke, Schularick, and Trebesch (2023) investigate the impact of populist leaders on GDP growth in 60 countries. They build an original dataset identifying populist presidents and prime ministers from 1900 to 2020. They then examine changes in countries' GDP growth rates following a populist leader using various empirical methods. They find that 5-15 years after a populist leader, the GDP per capita in that country is lower. Focusing on the panel regression results (Table 2), which we replicate, the authors find a reduction in GDP growth rates of 0.8-1 percentage point per year, with p-values ranging from 0.000 to 0.023. We successfully computationally reproduce these estimates. Second, we recode the variable identifying populist leaders from the authors' source and examine the sensitivity of the estimates to changing the sample time period to include the "war" years of 1915-1945. We find that the results in our main change - using the extended time-period sample - are qualitatively similar to the original results, though with smaller and noisier point estimates. Specifically, the 5-year estimate in Table 2 column 3 changes from -0.97 (p-value 0.02) to -0.43 (p-value 0.2), and the 15-year estimate in Table 3 column 3 changes from -0.73 (p-value 0.01) to -0.53 (p-value 0.17). We then turn to sensitivity analysis regarding small differences in research choices about how to code the start of populist spells and which spells to include in the sample. We find the original results are highly robust to these changes. For example, in our Table 3 column 3, the estimated effect changes from the original -0.73 (p-value 0.01) to -0.75 (p-value |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:157 |
| By: | Rémy Rioux; Matthieu Trichet,; Jean-David Naudet |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the 193 Member States of the United Nations unanimously adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This agenda begins with a common vision describing the various characteristics of a universally desirable world, in particular “one in which democracy, good governance and the rule of law as well as an enabling environment at national and international levels, are essential for sustainable development, including sustained and inclusive economic growth, social development, environmental protection and the eradication of poverty and hunger.” However, in the 17 objectives and 169 targets of this 2030 Agenda, democracy, unlike all the other characteristics of the common vision, is no longer mentioned. Has an 18th development goal been lost along the way? Or perhaps an enhanced Goal 16, as it refers to good governance and the rule of law, but without however a democratic target.This absence of democracy among the universal development objectives is the central theme of this research paper which, based on a selective and sequenced inventory of relevant knowledge, questions the role of democracy in development and development assistance through a historical perspective. It concludes with elements of reflection on the future. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en16915 |
| By: | Li, Hanwu (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University); Riedel, Frank (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University) |
| Abstract: | We explore intertemporal preferences that are recursive and account for local intertemporal substitution. First, we establish a rigorous foundation for these preferences and analyze their properties. Next, we examine the associated optimal consumption problem, proving the existence and uniqueness of the optimal consumption plan. We present an infinite-dimensional version of the Kuhn-Tucker theorem, which provides the necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality. Additionally, we investigate quantitative properties and the construction of the optimal consumption plan. Finally, we offer a detailed description of the structure of optimal consumption within a geometric Poisson framework. |
| Keywords: | recursive utility, intertemporal substitution, Hindy-Huang-Kreps preferences, backward stochastic differential equation with jumps, Poisson processes |
| Date: | 2024–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bie:wpaper:693 |
| By: | Dean Corbae; Andrew Glover; Michael Nattinger |
| Abstract: | We develop a simple equilibrium model of rental markets for housing in which eviction occurs endogenously. Both landlords and renters lack commitment; a landlord evicts a delinquent tenant if they do not expect total future rent payments to cover costs, while tenants cannot commit to paying more rent than they would be able or willing to pay given their outside option of searching for a new rental. Renters who are persistently delinquent are more likely to be evicted and pay more per quality-adjusted unit of housing than renters who are less likely to be delinquent. Evictions due to a tenant’s inability to pay are never socially efficient, and lead to lower quality investment in housing and too few vacancies relative to the socially optimal allocation. Government policies that restrict landlords’ ability to evict can improve welfare relative to laissez-faire, but a full moratorium on evictions only raises welfare when it is temporarily adopted in response to a large adverse shock. Finally, rent support can effectively eliminate evictions even without covering all missed rent and delivers significantly larger gains than eviction restrictions. |
| JEL: | E60 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32898 |
| By: | Grund, Christian (RWTH Aachen University); Harbring, Christine (RWTH Aachen University); Klinkenberg, Lisa (RWTH Aachen University) |
| Abstract: | The organization of work and the characteristics of tasks have undergone considerable changes in recent years. The developments include (i) an increased relevance of virtual teams and (ii) a higher demand for non-routine tasks in organizations, including creativity. Existing research on creative teams focuses on one-shot or existing teams, overlooking the importance of the formation phase of teams. This formation phase is particularly relevant for teams working in a virtual workplace setting, where communication and coordination may be constrained by the environment. Next to virtual work, hybrid working models ascend, also for teams. Therefore, we examine the influence of workplace settings and changes in these settings on creative performance of teams. We also investigate whether the individuals' ability to choose their workplace affects creative performance. We answer those questions by conducting a 2-phase experiment with dyadic teams in the lab and online to model a presence and a virtual workplace setting and account for the formation phase of teams. We implemented the "Unusual-Uses Task" as non-routine creative task. Our results showed that teams working in presence outperform those working online. Interestingly, working at least one phase in presence induces higher creative performance than entirely working online, underscoring the relevance of hybrid workplace settings. Moreover, no significant effects of self-selection on performance were found. |
| Keywords: | teams, creativity, work from home, hybrid working models, self-selection |
| JEL: | C92 M5 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17258 |
| By: | Gökçe, Merve Betül (Bogazici University); Kirdar, Murat Güray (Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of the Syrian civil war and refugee status on the risk of physical intimate partner violence (IPV) among Syrian women in Jordan, the country with the second highest refugee-to-native ratio worldwide. We analyze data from the 2017-18 Jordan Population and Family Health Survey, which includes a nationally representative sample of Syrian refugees. Using the information on the timing of first violence after marriage within a discrete-time duration analysis, we examine the hazard rates of IPV exposure across different periods: prewar Syria, postwar Syria, and refugee status. Our findings demonstrate that war and refugee status increase the risk of IPV, and these findings persist for women who were married before the civil war. Additionally, the rise in IPV after the refugees' arrival in Jordan diminishes over time. The study identifies the economic strain resulting from lower household wealth and refugee husbands' employment losses as a driver of the rise in IPV. Moreover, our innovative approach utilizing GPS locations of refugee households to calculate refugee density reveals that greater social isolation, indicated by reduced proximity to other refugees, significantly exacerbates the risk of IPV among these women. In addition, we explore whether the civil war and refugee status alter marriage patterns, which could contribute to the observed effects on IPV. Both the civil war and forced migration lower the marriage age and increase the incidence of non-cousin marriages at the expense of cousin marriages—both of which are associated with a higher risk of IPV. |
| Keywords: | Syrian refugees, forced migration, intimate partner violence, physical violence, war and displacement, Jordan |
| JEL: | J12 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17284 |
| By: | Saloua Zgoulli-Swalhi (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School); Florence Rodhain (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School); Bernard Fallery (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School) |
| Abstract: | Pour montrer ce que nous peut apporter ce travail de médiation scientifique, nous proposons - après une courte introduction sur le cadre théorique de la médiation scientifique - de mettre en scène en guise de communication à M'2023 deux des scènes de la pièce de théâtre écrite par un groupe d'enseignants-chercheurs. Quant à l'ensemble de la pièce « Le Bourgeois Numérique, de Molière 3.0 », il sera joué tout au cours de l'année 2023-2024 et chaque représentation donnera lieu à une discussion avec le public. |
| Keywords: | médiation scientifque; intelligence artifcielle; théâtre |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680934 |
| By: | Mosk, Benjamin; Vassallo, Danilo |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an event-study methodology that combines market data and survey-based probabilities to infer the full effect of a policy decision, as seen through the lens of financial markets. The market reaction to an event’s outcome reflects its surprise or announcement effect, and generally not its full effect. However, under certain conditions, the unobserved full effect can be derived from the observed surprise effect. Most importantly, the ex-ante probabilities of different outcomes must be known. We apply this methodology to a real-world example: the European Central Bank’s announcement of its third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROIII). The introduction of TLTROIII was highly anticipated, and therefore partially priced in, as market participants feared a “cliff effect” with the preceding operations under TLTROII coming due. We estimate the announcement’s full effect, focusing on its impact on a set of asset prices, as compared to a baseline wherein TLTROIII would not have been introduced. The full market impact surpasses the surprise effect by a factor of fifteen. We also find that the announcement had a highly heterogeneous impact on euro area sovereign bond yields. JEL Classification: G12, G13, G14 |
| Keywords: | event-study, targeted longer-term refinancing operations |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242982 |
| By: | Fletcher, Jason |
| Abstract: | A maturing literature across the social sciences suggests important impacts of the intergenerational transmission of crime as well as peer effects that determine youth criminal activities. This paper explores these channels by examining gender-specific effects of maternal and paternal incarceration from both own-parents and classmate-parents. This paper also adds to the literature by exploiting across-cohort, within school exposure to peer parent incarceration to enhance causal inference. While the intergenerational correlations of criminal activities are similar by gender (father-son/mother-son), the results suggest that peer parent incarceration transmits effects largely along gender lines, which is suggestive of specific learning mechanisms. Peer maternal incarceration increases adolescent female criminal activities and reduces male crime and the reverse is true for peer paternal incarceration. These effects are strongest for youth reports of selling drugs and engaging in physical violence. In contrast, the effects of peer parental incarceration on other outcomes, such as GPA, do not vary by gender. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:35a8w |
| By: | Haris, Faldi; Rahadi, Raden Aswin |
| Abstract: | VC investment has undergone a substantial transition, particularly in emerging countries, where there is a growing entrepreneurial culture. Southeast Asia (SEA) has emerged as an image of trust due to its remarkable accomplishments in venture capital funding. Notwithstanding, the VC success rate is quite low, with up to 75 percent of venture-backed businesses failing to return cash to their investors and 30 to 40 percent of those 75 percent liquidating their assets, resulting in their investors losing their entire investment (Ghosh, 2012). In light of this context, this study sets out to investigate the behavior of venture capital firms in Southeast Asia and the complex decision-making processes involved. This research aims to enhance the success rate of VC firms and contribute to the advancement of VC literature by precisely identifying the relevant parameter. This study seeks to analyze the complex landscape of venture capital activities in a highly dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem, using the complete framework created by Gompers et al. (2023). A case study, a widely recognized method in exploratory research, is used as the primary methodology to reveal novel themes and insights obtained from respondents in venture capital firms. Using a semi-structured interview, this study implies that VC fund structure and strategy, start-up screening criteria, start-up valuation, exit, and risk management have a significant effect on determining SEA VC firm investment decisions. This study is one of the first efforts to utilize Gompers et al.'s (2023) framework in the specific setting of Southeast Asia. This study contributes to the current research on venture capital decision-making by providing innovative measurement parameters, with a particular emphasis on the notion of "runway." These features, which relate to a startup's expenditure rate and its long-term viability offer a broader understanding of the financial factors that impact investments made by SEA VC companies. |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:t3byd |
| By: | Kubitza, Christian |
| Abstract: | Financial losses can have persistent effects on the financial system. This paper proposes an empirical measure for the duration of these effects, Spillover Persistence. I document that Spillover Persistence is strongly correlated with financial conditions; during banking crises, Spillover Persistence is higher, whereas in the run-up phase of stock market bubbles it is lower. Lower Spillover Persistence also associates with a more fragile system, e.g., a higher probability of future crises, consistent with the volatility paradox. The results emphasize the dynamics of loss spillovers as an important dimension of systemic risk and financial constraints as a key determinant of persistence. JEL Classification: E44, G01, G12, G20, G32 |
| Keywords: | asset price bubbles, financial crises, fire sales, fragility, systemic risk |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242981 |
| By: | Ramon F. A. de Punder (University of Amsterdam); Cees G. H. Diks (University of Amsterdam); Roger J. A. Laeven (University of Amsterdam); Dick J. C. van Dijk (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | When comparing predictive distributions, forecasters are typically not equally interested in all regions of the outcome space. To address the demand for focused fore- cast evaluation, we propose a procedure to transform strictly proper scoring rules into their localized counterparts while preserving strict propriety. This is accomplished by applying the original scoring rule to a censored distribution, acknowledging that censoring emerges as a natural localization device due to its ability to retain precisely all relevant information of the original distribution. Our procedure nests the censored likelihood score as a special case. Among a multitude of others, it also implies a class of censored kernel scores that offers a multivariate alternative to the threshold weighted Continuously Ranked Probability Score (twCRPS), extending its local propriety to more general weight functions than single tail indicators. Within this localized framework, we obtain a generalization of the Neyman Pearson lemma, establishing the censored likelihood ratio test as uniformly most powerful. For other tests of localized equal predictive performance, results of Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications to risk management, inflation and climate data consistently emphasize the superior power properties of censoring. |
| Keywords: | Density forecast evaluation, Tests for equal predictive ability, Censoring, Likelihood ratio, CRPS. |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230084 |
| By: | Steffen Peters (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Rasmus Mannerström; Katariina Salmela-Aro |
| Keywords: | Finland |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-028 |
| By: | Ambler, Kate; Balana, Bedru; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Maruyama, Eduardo; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi |
| Abstract: | Smallholder farmers must invest in agricultural inputs (i.e., seeds, chemicals, equipment, land, and labor) during the planting season before earning income from the sale of agricultural produce after harvest. Credit can help relax liquidity constraints. In rural Nigeria, access to credit is limited, especially formal credit from financial institutions. Less than a third of households in rural Nigeria report using credit and only two percent of rural households borrowed credit from formal financial institutions (EFInA 2020). The rest is borrowed informally from friends, family, or local money lenders. Credit can take many different forms. For example, credit can take the form of a cash loan, where funds are provided to a borrower to make an investment of any kind. Another common form of credit is when specific goods, for instance agricultural inputs, are provided in advance to a payment. In both cases, the borrower must pay back both the loan amount, and any interest incurred from the loan. We partnered with Crop2Cash, a digital financial technology startup company operating in Nigeria, to test take-up for these two forms of credit. |
| Keywords: | smallholders; farm inputs; income; agriculture; credit; loans; Southern Africa; Western Africa; Nigeria |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:152224 |
| By: | Slupphaug, KJell (Statistics Norway (SSB)); Mehmetoglu, Mehmet; Mittner, Matthias (University of Tromsø) |
| Abstract: | The estimation of interaction and quadratic effects in Structural Equation Models (SEMs) is a complex task in psychometrics. Latent product term (LPT) models, initially developed for interaction effects between latent variables, are also used to model quadratic effects. Despite over 30 years of research, no consensus has emerged on the best method for modeling interactions in SEMs, partly due to efforts to simplify existing approaches for broader accessibility. LPT models are categorized into Product Indicator (PI) and Distribution Analytic (DA) approaches. PI methods are conceptually simple but often sacrifice accuracy due to necessary simplifications, making them error-prone and difficult to implement manually. In contrast, DA methods, such as Latent Moderated Structural Equations (LMS) and Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML), provide more accurate estimates in simulations but are computationally intensive and less accessible due to limited implementations. We introduce modsem, an R package that simplifies the estimation of interaction and quadratic effects in SEMs. modsem supports various methods, including PI, LMS, and QML, and extends them to models with multiple endogenous variables. It integrates seamlessly with the popular lavaan syntax, enhancing accessibility for researchers. We demonstrate modsem’s utility with applications to the Theory of Planned Behaviour and PISA 2006 data, highlighting its effectiveness in estimating complex models. Future work will focus on validating and refining LMS and QML approaches, and exploring alternative methods like Bayesian and Structural After Measurement (SAM) approaches. |
| Date: | 2024–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h3rpw |
| By: | Serdar Birinci; Yusuf Mercan; Kurt See |
| Abstract: | We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—employment losses relative to an efficient allocation where the planner can costlessly reallocate unemployed workers across sectors to maximize output—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery episode characterized by labor shortages. We find that, for the first time in our sample, mismatch unemployment turned negative at the onset of the pandemic. This result suggests that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more-productive jobs, even at the expense of fewer hires. We show that sectoral differences in job separations were the main driver behind this result, while differences in vacancies caused positive mismatch unemployment during the recovery episode. We also establish an empirical link between mismatch unemployment and the surge in the labor cost during the recovery, documenting that sectors with larger mismatch unemployment experienced higher employment cost growth. |
| Keywords: | mismatch; reallocation; unemployment; labor shortages |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98793 |
| By: | Charles Yuji Horioka (Center for Computational Social Science and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Asian Growth Research Institute, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, and National Bureau of Economic Research, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I analyze detailed data on intergenerational transfers in 4 countries (China, India, Japan, and the United States) from the "Japan Household Panel Survey on Consumer Preferences and Satisfaction (JHPS-CPS)" which has been conducted by the Institute of Social and Economic Research of Osaka University in these 4 countries since 2003, in order to shed light on the impact of intergenerational transfers on household wealth disparities and on possible reasons for the substantial differences in household wealth disparities among the 4 countries. Almost all of the evidence I present suggests that intergenerational transfers have a disequalizing impact on household wealth disparities and promote the transmission of household wealth disparities from generation to generation in all 4 countries although the magnitude of these effects varies considerably from country to country. Moreover, the evidence I present sheds considerable light on possible reasons for the substantial differences in household wealth disparities among the 4 countries. |
| Keywords: | Bequests; Estates; Household wealth; Inheritances; Inter vivos transfers; Intergenerational mobility; Intergenerational transfers; Wealth disparities; Wealth distribution; Wealth inequality; China; India; Japan; United States |
| JEL: | D12 D31 D64 E21 E24 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2024-31 |
| By: | David Frayman |
| Abstract: | The UK has a poor record of providing opportunities to learn skills for the around half of young people that do not attend university. Over a third of 18-year-olds in England are not undertaking any education or training, significantly higher than in the major EU economies. Concerningly, recent trends have been in the wrong direction. The number of apprenticeship starts in England has significantly declined since the mid-2010s, when it hovered at around half a million. |
| Keywords: | apprenticeship, skills, training |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepops:64 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | The finternet is an emerging concept in global finance. The finternet is a term used to describe financial systems that are interconnected to one another like the internet. The finternet is a vision of the financial system of the future and Africa cannot be left behind in the race to transition to the finternet. But for this to happen, there is a need to understand what the finternet really is, what it means for Africa, the benefit for African countries, the mechanisms that exist today that will bring Africa closer to the finternet and the changes that need to be made today to prepare African countries for the finternet. This article explores the concept of the finternet, its definitions, benefits, and the strategies to help African countries transition to the financial system of the future which is the finternet. |
| Keywords: | finternet, financial system, financial services, interconnectedness, Africa, African countries, internet |
| JEL: | G21 G22 G23 G24 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122166 |
| By: | Balles, Patrick |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the U.S. Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision, which lifted bans on independent expenditures by corporations and unions. Using a difference-in-differences design, the study compares states with and without pre-existing bans, focusing on gubernatorial elections. The results show an 11 percentage point increase in the share of Republican TV ad airings following the removal of independent expenditure bans. This increase is especially pronounced (16 percentage points) in states where only corporate bans were lifted, with total TV ad airtime rising by over 29 hours on average. Negative campaigning also intensified, with a 5.5 percentage point rise in the share of attack ads. Survey and election data show a significant demobilization effect, particularly in states where only corporate bans were removed (3.5-5 percentage point decrease in county-level turnout). Finally, Republican gubernatorial candidates experienced a 7-11 percentage point boost in vote shares following the removal of independent spending bans. |
| Keywords: | campaign finance, Citizens United v. FEC, independent expenditures, voter turnout, television markets, special interest groups, corporate money in politics |
| JEL: | D72 K16 L82 |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2024/08 |
| By: | Sandner, Malte (Technische Hochschule Nürnberg); Yükselen, Ipek (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | A large body of literature has shown that the gender wage gap is small in the first years after graduation and increases gradually with age, largely because of family decisions, i.e., a penalty caused by childbirth. However, the gender wage gap immediately after graduation has received less attention. Using a unique dataset that links 5, 000 university graduates with master's degrees or equivalent from a large German university to detailed employment records from the German social security register, we specifically analyze the gender wage gap at the first job and its dynamics during the initial years of their careers after graduation. We find that a significant gender wage gap already exists in the first job after graduation, even before most young individuals make family decisions. However, this gender wage gap decreases in the first year after entering the labor market and then increases slowly over time. We attribute this initial decrease in the gender wage gap to female university graduates experiencing greater returns from firm and occupational changes than their male counterparts. This suggests that women may use these changes to address skill mismatches, which are more common among women than men in their first job. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, university graduates, early career |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17293 |
| By: | Kaivan Munshi; Swapnil Singh |
| Abstract: | This research provides a status-based explanation for the persistent increase in female labor force non-participation (FLFNP) that often accompanies economic development. This explanation is based on the idea that households or ethnic groups in developing economies can signal their wealth, and thereby increase their social status, by withdrawing their women from the labor force. If the value of social status or the willingness to bear the signaling cost is increasing with economic development, then this would explain the persistent increase in FLFNP. To provide empirical support for this argument, we utilize two independent sources of exogenous variation—across Indian districts in the cross-section and within districts over time—to establish that status considerations determine rural FLFNP. Our status-based model, which is used to derive the preceding tests, is able to match the increase in rural Indian FLFNP that motivates our analysis. Counterfactual simulations of the estimated model indicate that conventional policy prescriptions, such as a reduction in the cost of female education, could {\em raise} FLFNP by increasing potential household incomes and, hence, the willingness to compete for social status. The steep increase in female education in recent decades could paradoxically have increased FLFNP in India even further. |
| JEL: | J16 J20 O1 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32946 |
| By: | Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo |
| Abstract: | This paper makes a significant contribution to the literature on the policy trilemma by evaluating potential policy combinations that are relevant for the BRICS grouping within the context of the Impossible Trinity. Additionally, the paper introduces a new modeling approach for assessing the policy trilemma, based on establishing a boundary for the linear combination of variables related to the trilemma. The findings reveal that adopting a fixed exchange rate system presents considerable challenges for BRICS countries within the framework of the Impossible Trinity. Specifically, the results suggest that if BRICS countries opt for a fixed exchange rate system, they would likely have to forgo free capital flow. This loss of flexibility could be particularly detrimental, given their significant international influence and their role as major recipients of capital flows for trade and financial transactions. |
| Keywords: | impossible trinity; exchange stability; monetary policy independence; BRICS. |
| JEL: | C2 E61 F4 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121839 |
| By: | Restrepo, Brandon J.; Zeballos, Eliana |
| Abstract: | A notable shift toward online grocery shopping is occurring. To examine the prevalence and frequency of online grocery shopping, the methods of receiving groceries purchased online, and the primary motivators prompting U.S. consumers to buy groceries online, this report uses nationally representative data from the USDA, Economic Research Service’s 2022 Eating and Health Module of the American Time Use Survey. The analysis reveals that about one in five individuals who usually do any grocery shopping in their household purchased groceries online at least once in the past month. Shoppers more likely to buy groceries online than their counterparts and who shopped online more frequently were female, ages 15–24, non-Hispanic White, married or partnered, from a household with young children, more educated, income ineligible for SNAP benefits, or frequently did the grocery shopping in their households. Pickup and delivery options were chosen almost equally, and more than two in five online grocery shoppers cited time constraints as the main reason the shoppers chose to buy groceries online. Examining the drivers of online grocery shopping can inform program, policy, and retailer decision making—given the potential for online grocery shopping to improve food access, foster healthier purchases, and alter the food retail landscape. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:346028 |
| By: | A. David Redish; Henri Scott Chastain; Carlisle Ford Runge; Brian M. Sweis; Scott E. Allen; Antara Haldar |
| Abstract: | Current theories of decision making suggest that the neural circuits in mammalian brains (including humans) computationally combine representations of the past (memory), present (perception), and future (agentic goals) to take actions that achieve the needs of the agent. How information is represented within those neural circuits changes what computations are available to that system which changes how agents interact with their world to take those actions. We argue that the computational neuroscience of decision making provides a new microeconomic framework (neuroeconomics) that offers new opportunities to construct policies that interact with those decision-making systems to improve outcomes. After laying out the computational processes underlying decision making in mammalian brains, we present four applications of this logic with policy consequences: (1) contingency management as a treatment for addiction, (2) precommitment and the sensitivity to sunk costs, (3) media consequences for changes in housing prices after a disaster, and (4) how social interactions underlie the success (and failure) of microfinance institutions. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07373 |
| By: | John List; Haruka Uchida |
| Abstract: | An unsettling stylized fact is that decorated early childhood education programs improve cognitive skills in the short-term, but lose their efficacy after a few years. We implement a field experiment with two stages of randomization to explore the underpinnings of the fade-out effect. We first randomly assign preschool access to children, and then partner with the local school district to randomly assign the same children to classmates throughout elementary school. We find that the fade-out effect is critically linked to the share of classroom peers assigned to preschool access-with enough treated peers the classic fade-out effect is muted. Our results highlight a paradoxical insight: while the fade-out effect has been viewed as a devastating critique of early childhood programs, our results highlight that fade-out is a key rational for providing early education to all children. This is because human capital accumulation is inherently a social activity, leading early education programs to deliver their largest benefits at scale when everyone receives such programs. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00797 |
| By: | Daniel Guzmán |
| Abstract: | Using Colombian Household Survey (GEIH) data and Schmieder and von Wachter (2010) methodology, which builds upon Beaudry and DiNardo (1991) empirical approach, I found that informal workers obtain proportionally higher wage gains than formal workers when the labour market is tight. In turn, these wage premia are persistent in the informal sector, unlike the formal one. While these wage gains appear to increase around 20% the probability of layoffs when compared to the unconditional means across both sectors, the absolute increase for informal workers can be up to six-fold larger relative to their formal counterparts. The absence of regulation and employee benefits -such as written contracts, severance payments and social insurance-seems to have an amplifying effect on the informal workers’ bargaining power during the most favourable periods of the labour market. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1012 |
| By: | Ma, Mingye (University of Southampton); Riener, Gerhard (University of Southampton); Xu, Youzong (University of Nottingham Ningbo China) |
| Abstract: | We explore the role of self- and peer evaluations in education, with a particular emphasis on gender differences. We construct a model of (self-)deception to predict outcomes for scenarios with and without self-evaluation. By using unique data from a first-year economics class at a Sino-UK university, we examine how students assess their own and their peers' contributions to group projects under varying self-assessment conditions. Our findings reveal a significant self-serving bias across both genders, though with subtle distinctions. Women, despite greater societal recognition, exhibit smaller self-social evaluation gaps (SSEG). The variation in abstention rates between treatments is mainly attributed to lowerperforming males. These findings indicate that the possibility of self-assessment influences rating behavior, potentially exacerbating gender disparities and affecting gender equity. |
| Keywords: | higher education, incentives, field experiment, peer evaluation, gender |
| JEL: | D01 D91 I23 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17267 |
| By: | Anwar Gasim; Walid Matar; Abdelrahman Muhsen (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Measuring and monitoring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are crucial to address climate change and fulfill Paris Agreement objectives. This paper explores the potential of satellite technology in measuring and tracking CH4, CO2, and N2O emissions in Saudi Arabia, collaborating with environmental intelligence company Kayrros. The satellite estimates reveal significant disparities with other data providers, particularly in the oil and gas sector. The paper advocates for a combination of bottom-up and satellite methods to enhance comprehensiveness, transparency, accuracy, and timeliness in emission measurements. The study provides policy recommendations for Saudi Arabia, demonstrating how satellite technology can detect super-emitting events and offering solutions for regulatory action. Finally, it discusses limitations and calls for further investment in satellite technology to refine GHG emission estimates for better global climate action. |
| Keywords: | Air conditioning, Applied general model, Article 6, Blockchain |
| Date: | 2023–12–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2023-dp29 |
| By: | Pettersson, Tove (Kriminologiska institutionen) |
| Abstract: | Ungdomar mellan 15 och 17 år som begår så allvarliga brott att påföljden skulle varit fängelse om individen varit myndig straffas sedan 1999 i regel med sluten ungdomsvård. Verkställigheten sker vid något av Statens institutionsstyrelses (Sis) särskilda ungdomshem. Att vara frihetsberövad är i allmänhet negativt för de unga. För att minska individuella skador och risken för återfall, men även ytterligare brottsrelaterade kostnader för samhället, är det viktigt att det finns en väl fungerande utslussningsverksamhet och stöd för den unge efter avtjänat straff. I den här rapporten till ESO undersöker Tove Pettersson återfall, utslussningsverksamhet och eftervård bland dömda till sluten ungdomsvård 1999–2017. Andelen ungdomar som återfaller är hög och många har efter två år återfallit i brott som lett till en ny frihetsberövande dom. Samtidigt är en viktig slutsats att andelen som återfaller faktiskt minskar över tiden. En annan slutsats är att varken utslussning eller efterföljande stöd från socialtjänsten fungerar tillfredsställande. Rapporten visar på problem när hårdare tag riktas mot en mindre grupp dömda med hög risk för rymning och återfall eftersom det påverkar balansen mellan säkerhet och behandling i negativ riktning för alla intagna. Mer elektronisk övervakning (till exempel fotboja), större samverkan i utslussningsverksamheten mellan Sis och socialtjänsten och fler kompletta Sis-hem med låsbara och öppna avdelningar samt utslussningsavdelning, är några av de förbättrande åtgärder som föreslås i rapporten. |
| Keywords: | Brott; Myndigheter; Utredning; Utvärdering; Polis; Rättsväsende; |
| Date: | 2023–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:esorep:2023_009 |
| By: | Hossain, Mobarak; Jukes, Matthew C. H. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the emergence of gender differences in socioemotional skills and traits during adolescence, and the socioeconomic and cultural factors that may explain such gaps, in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. Findings from Young Lives longitudinal data showed that the gender gap in self-efficacy emerges around age 19, with males scoring more highly than females in Ethiopia, India and Vietnam. Similar, but less consistent, patterns were observed for self-esteem and peer relations. At age 22, males also scored more highly than females, in at least one country, in emotional stability, conscientiousness, grit, and teamwork. In India and Ethiopia, the two countries with higher poverty and more unequal gender attitudes, we found gender differences in a greater number of socioemotional skills or traits. A predictive analysis of self-efficacy, emotional stability and teamwork found that time spent in paid and unpaid household activities, having a more equal attitude to gender roles, and socioeconomic status were associated with the gender gap in socioemotional skills. These covariates explained gender gaps more in India and Ethiopia than in other countries. However, substantial portions of gender differences remained unexplained by available variables. Our findings may help clarify the origins of gender inequalities in life outcomes and how they can be addressed through socioemotional programmes in adolescence. |
| Keywords: | socioemotional skills; LMICs; young lives; longitudinal analysis; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124441 |
| By: | Tariq Mahmood; Ibtasam Ahmad; Malik Muhammad Zeeshan Ansar; Jumanah Ahmed Darwish; Rehan Ahmad Khan Sherwani |
| Abstract: | In recent years, financial analysts have been trying to develop models to predict the movement of a stock price index. The task becomes challenging in vague economic, social, and political situations like in Pakistan. In this study, we employed efficient models of machine learning such as long short-term memory (LSTM) and quantum long short-term memory (QLSTM) to predict the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100 index by taking monthly data of twenty-six economic, social, political, and administrative indicators from February 2004 to December 2020. The comparative results of LSTM and QLSTM predicted values of the KSE 100 index with the actual values suggested QLSTM a potential technique to predict stock market trends. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08297 |
| By: | Bruno Lefevre; Louis Wiart |
| Abstract: | Alibaba and Amazon now dominate global e-commerce. Although their strategies partly differ, they are both territorializing their activities around sorting hubs and warehouses. This often creates tensions in local territories. In our research exploring the effects of these strategies, conducted in France and Belgium from 2019 to 2022, we hypothesized that the impacts of the digital industrialization of local and global trade go beyond sales and logistics; the concentration of these markets in the hands of two ultra-dominant actors reflects unequal power relations that are reconfiguring governance, public decision-making, and democracy, notably by obscuring the major challenges that territories face. |
| Keywords: | Economie créative; Alibaba; Amazon; E-commerce; Commerce électronique; Territoire; Gouvernance |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/378019 |
| By: | Timperio, Giuseppe |
| Abstract: | Progressive urbanization of disaster-prone areas and the escalating impacts of climate change are contributing to a sharp increase in complex natural disasters. Amidst shrinking financial resources for disaster response, the need for improving decision-making in humanitarian logistics and supply chain management, the backbone of disaster relief absorbing between 60 and 80% of relief budgets, is imperative. Central to many challenges inhibiting effective and efficient provision of relief assistance is that most humanitarian organizations operate in silos. As a result, disaster response operations often experience suboptimal response times, over- or under-supply of necessary items, and higher-than-expected costs. In addressing these compelling challenges, the traditional organization- and execution-centric approach to humanitarian logistics is no longer sufficient. The increased complexity of humanitarian operations calls for a multidisciplinary research effort, with greater attention to ecosystem-aware, beneficiary-centric supply chain networks, with simultaneous attention to both planning and execution of humanitarian operations in consideration of the highly unpredictable and volatile environment relief assistance is delivered in. Despite the multifaceted nature of these challenges, rigorous, practice-focused research-based frameworks remain lacking in the existing body of knowledge. To fill this gap, this dissertation project presents a series of progressive multi-method decision support frameworks that integrate analytical and dynamic simulation approaches and rigorously validate them through realistic use cases, aspiring to address the multiple dimensions of the problem statement. By architecting modular frameworks that encompass models, data, knowledge, and technology, this dissertation goes beyond the use of standalone methods, striving to provide adaptable, practice-based approaches suitable for diverse disaster contexts and geographies. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149653 |
| By: | Pavel Brendler; Moritz Kuhn; Ulrike I. Steins |
| Abstract: | Differences in household saving rates are a key driver of wealth inequality. But what determines these differences in saving rates and wealth accumulation? We provide a new answer to this longstanding question based on new empirical evidence and a new modeling framework. In the data, we decompose U.S. household wealth into its main portfolio components to document two new empirical facts. First, the variation in wealth by income is mainly driven by differences in participation in asset markets rather than by the amounts invested. Wealth differences are a matter of to have or not to have. Second, the large heterogeneity in asset market participation closely follows observed differences in access to asset markets. Combining these two facts, we develop a new model of life-cycle wealth accumulation in which income-dependent market access is the key driver of differences in asset market participation and saving rates by income. The calibrated model accurately captures the joint distribution of income and wealth. Eliminating heterogeneity in access to asset markets increases wealth accumulation in the bottom half of the income distribution by 32%. Facilitating access to employer-sponsored retirement accounts improves broad-based wealth accumulation in the U.S. economy. Historical data support the model’s prediction. |
| Keywords: | Wealth inequality; Labor market heterogeneity; Household portfolios |
| JEL: | D31 E21 H31 |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:98835 |
| By: | Maarten van Rooij; Rob Alessie; Annamaria Lusardi |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys what we have learned on financial literacy and its relation to financial behavior from data collected in the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) Household Survey, a project done in collaboration with academics. A pioneering survey fielded in 2005 included an extensive set of financial literacy questions and questions that can serve as instruments for financial literacy in regression analyses to assess the causal effect of financial literacy on behavior. We describe how this survey spurred a series of research papers demonstrating the crucial role of financial literacy in stock market participation, retirement planning, and wealth accumulation. This inspired various follow-up studies and experiments based on new data collections in the DNB Household Survey. Researchers worldwide have used these data for innovative studies, and other surveys have included similar questions. This case study exemplifies the essential role of data in empirical research, showing how innovative data collections can inspire new research initiatives and significantly contribute to our understanding of household financial decisionmaking. |
| Keywords: | financial literacy; consumer financial decision-making; household finance; survey methodology; data collection methods; empirical analysis; |
| JEL: | G53 D14 D12 C81 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:815 |
| By: | Dan Pirjol; Lingjiong Zhu |
| Abstract: | We derive the short-maturity asymptotics for Asian option prices in local-stochastic volatility (LSV) models. Both out-of-the-money (OTM) and at-the-money (ATM) asymptotics are considered. Using large deviations theory methods, the asymptotics for the OTM options are expressed as a rate function which is represented as a two-dimensional variational problem. We develop a novel expansion method for the variational problem by expanding the rate function around the ATM point. In particular, we derive series expansions in log-moneyness for the solution of this variational problem around the ATM point, and obtain explicit results for the first three terms. We give the ATM volatility level, skew and convexity of the implied volatility of an Asian option in a general local-stochastic volatility model, which can be used as an approximation for pricing Asian options with strikes sufficiently close to the ATM point. Using numerical simulations in the SABR, Heston and an LSV model with bounded local volatility, we show good performance of the asymptotic result for Asian options with sufficiently small maturity. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08377 |
| By: | Benjamín García; Mario Giarda; Carlos Lizama; Ignacio Rojas |
| Abstract: | Households in emerging economies are subject to significant income risk and have low access to financial markets. Leveraging multiple administrative microdata sources, this paper documents significant heterogeneity in asset holdings, income, and income cyclicality across the distribution of Chilean households, as well as considerable income risk. Considering this evidence, we compare the transmission mechanisms between Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian models with search and matching (SAM) and sticky wage frictions (SW), and between one-liquid-asset (OA) and two-asset (TA) specifications. We propose a decomposition of consumption responses into direct, indirect, average, and cross-sectional effects. We show that the transmission mechanisms depend on the labor market setup: in SAM-OA the transmission operates through average and direct effects, while in SW-OA it is through cross-sectional effects. Assets also matter, the transmission in the SW-TA has stronger direct and average effects than SW-OA. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1013 |
| By: | Mr. Christian Bogmans; Mr. Andrea Pescatori; Ervin Prifti |
| Abstract: | During the global recession of 2020 food insecurity increased substantially in many countries around the world. Fortunately, the surge in food insecurity quickly came to a halt as the world economy returned to its positive growth path, despite double-digit domestic food inflation in most countries. To shed light on the relative importance of income growth and food inflation in driving food insecurity, we employ a heterogeneous-agent model with income inequality, complemented by novel cross-country data for the period 2001-2021. We use external instruments (changes in commodity terms-of-trade, external economic growth, and harvest shocks) to isolate exogenous variation in domestic income growth and ood inflation. Our findings suggest that income growth is the dominant driver of annual variations in food insecurity, while food price inflation plays a somewhat smaller role, aligning with our model predictions. |
| Keywords: | Food insecurity; inclusive growth; food inflation; inequality; diet. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/188 |
| By: | Sario, Azhar ul Haque |
| Abstract: | This third volume in the “Stock Predictions” series builds on the success of the first edition, “Stock Price Predictions: An Introduction to Probabilistic Models” (ISBN 979-8223912712), and the second edition, “Forecasting Stock Prices: Mathematics of Probabilistic Models” (ISBN 979-8223038993). This new edition delves deeper into the complex world of quantitative finance, providing readers with a comprehensive guide to advanced financial models used in stock price prediction. The book covers a wide array of models, beginning with the foundational concept of Brownian Motion, which represents the random movement of stock prices and underpins many financial models. It then progresses to Geometric Brownian Motion, a model that accounts for the exponential growth often observed in stock prices. Mean Reversion Models are introduced to capture the tendency of stock prices to revert to their long-term average, offering a counterpoint to trend-following strategies. The book explores the world of volatility modeling with GARCH models, which capture the clustering and persistence of volatility in financial markets, crucial for risk management and option pricing. Extensions of GARCH, such as EGARCH and TGARCH, are examined to address the asymmetric impact of positive and negative news on volatility. In the latter part of the book, the focus shifts to Machine Learning, demonstrating how techniques like Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks can uncover complex patterns in financial data and enhance prediction accuracy. Recurrent Neural Networks, particularly LSTMs, are highlighted for their ability to model sequential data, making them ideal for capturing the temporal dynamics of stock prices. Monte Carlo simulations are discussed as a powerful tool for generating a range of possible future outcomes, enabling investors to assess risk and make informed decisions. Finally, Copula Models are introduced to model the dependence structure between multiple assets, critical for portfolio management and risk assessment. Throughout the book, each model is presented with a clear explanation of its mathematical formulation, parameter estimation techniques, and practical applications in stock price prediction. The book emphasizes the strengths and limitations of each model, equipping readers with the knowledge to select the most appropriate model for their specific needs. This book is an invaluable resource for students, researchers, and practitioners in finance and investments seeking to master the quantitative tools used in stock price prediction. With its rigorous yet accessible approach, this book empowers readers to leverage advanced financial models and make informed investment decisions in today’s dynamic markets. The book is based on 95 research studies, which are listed on the references page and uploaded on Harvard University’s Dataverse for transparency. As a published book, it has undergone review for originality. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pk7w3 |
| By: | Yu Liu; Gongqiu Zhang |
| Abstract: | We address the problem of pricing Chinese convertible bonds(CCB) by Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming. At each exercising time, we use the state variables of the underlying stock to regress the continuation value, and then we apply standard backward induction to get the coefficients until the moment of time zero, thus the price of the CCB is obtained. We apply the pricing of CCBs by simulation and test the performance of an under-priced strategy: long the 10 most underpriced CCBs and rebalance daily. The result show this strategy significantly outperforms the double-low strategy which is used as a benchmark. In practice, CCB issuers usually use the downward adjustment clause to to avoid financial distress upon put provision. Therefore, we treat the downward adjustment clause as a probabilistic event triggering the put provision. In this way, we combine the downward adjustment clause with put provision in a simple manner. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.06496 |
| By: | Martin Obschonka; Moren Levesque |
| Abstract: | The rapid expansion of AI adoption (e.g., using machine learning, deep learning, or large language models as research methods) and the increasing availability of big data have the potential to bring about the most significant transformation in entrepreneurship scholarship the field has ever witnessed. This article makes a pressing meta-contribution by highlighting a significant risk of unproductive knowledge exchanges in entrepreneurship research amid the AI revolution. It offers strategies to mitigate this risk and provides guidance for future AI-based studies to enhance their collective impact and relevance. Drawing on Akerlof's renowned market-for-lemons concept, we identify the potential for significant knowledge asymmetries emerging from the field's evolution into its current landscape (e.g., complexities around construct validity, theory building, and research relevance). Such asymmetries are particularly deeply ingrained due to what we term the double-black-box puzzle, where the widely recognized black box nature of AI methods intersects with the black box nature of the entrepreneurship phenomenon driven by inherent uncertainty. As a result, these asymmetries could lead to an increase in suboptimal research products that go undetected, collectively creating a market for lemons that undermines the field's well-being, reputation, and impact. However, importantly, if these risks can be mitigated, the AI revolution could herald a new golden era for entrepreneurship research. We discuss the necessary actions to elevate the field to a higher level of AI resilience while steadfastly maintaining its foundational principles and core values. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08890 |
| By: | Jin, Shuxian; Spadaro, Giuliana (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Balliet, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Cooperation underlies the ability of groups to realize collective benefits (e.g., creation of public goods). Yet, cooperation can be difficult to achieve when people face situations with conflicting interests between what is best for individuals versus the collective (i.e., social dilemmas). To address this challenge, groups can implement rules about structural changes in a situation. But what institutional rules can best facilitate cooperation? Theoretically, rules can be made to affect structural features of a social dilemma, such as the possible actions, outcomes, and people involved. We derived 13 pre-registered hypotheses from existing work and collected six decades of empirical research to test how nine structural features influence cooperation within prisoner’s dilemmas and public goods dilemmas. We do this by meta-analyzing mean levels of cooperation across studies (Study 1, k = 2, 340, N = 229, 528), and also examining how manipulations of these structural features in social dilemmas affect cooperation within studies (Study 2, k = 909). Results indicated that lower conflict of interests was associated with higher cooperation, and that (1) the implementation of sanctions (i.e., reward and punishment of behaviors) and (2) allowing for communication most strongly enhanced cooperation. However, we found inconsistent support for the hypotheses that group size and matching design affect cooperation. Other structural features (e.g., symmetry of dilemmas, sequential decision making, payment) were not associated with cooperation. Overall, these findings inform institutions that can (or not) facilitate cooperation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9r2qb |
| By: | Pablo Ottonello; Wenting Song; Sebastian Sotelo |
| Abstract: | We study the distribution of political speech across U.S. firms. We develop a measure of political engagement based on firms’ communications (earnings calls, regulatory filings, and social media), by training a large language model to identify statements that contain political opinions. Using these data, we document five facts about firms’ political engagement. (1) Political engagement is rare among firms. (2) Political engagement is concentrated among large firms. (3) Firms tend to specialize in specific topics and outlets. (4) Large firms tend to engage in a wider set of topics and outlets. (5) The 2020 surge in firms’ political engagement was associated with an increase in the engagement of medium-sized firms and a change in the mix of political topics. |
| JEL: | C8 D22 D72 G3 L1 M14 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32923 |
| By: | Velasco, Sofia |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR (BQFAVAR) to examine the asymmetric effects of monetary policy throughout the business cycle. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the model effectively captures non-linearities in impulse responses. Analysis of aggregate responses to a contractionary monetary policy shock reveals that financial variables and industrial production exhibit more pronounced impacts during recessions compared to expansions, aligning with predictions from the ’financial accelerator’ propagation mechanism literature. Additionally, inflation displays a higher level of symmetry across economic conditions, consistent with households’ loss aversion in the context of reference-dependent preferences and central banks’ commitment to maintaining price stability. The examination of price rigidities at a granular level, employing sectoral prices and quantities, demonstrates that during recessions, the contractionary policy shock results in a more pronounced negative impact on quantities compared to expansions. This finding provides support for the notion of stronger downward than upward price rigidity, as suggested by ’menu-costs models’. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E32, E37, E52 |
| Keywords: | asymmetric effects of monetary policy, Bayesian Quantile VAR, disaggregate prices, FAVAR, non-linear models |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242983 |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; David Deming |
| Abstract: | Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from the first nationally representative U.S. survey of generative AI adoption at work and at home. In August 2024, 39 percent of the U.S. population age 18-64 used generative AI. More than 24 percent of workers used it at least once in the week prior to being surveyed, and nearly one in nine used it every workday. Historical data on usage and mass-market product launches suggest that U.S. adoption of generative AI has been faster than adoption of the personal computer and the internet. Generative AI is a general purpose technology, in the sense that it is used in a wide range of occupations and job tasks at work and at home. |
| Keywords: | generative artificial intelligence (AI); technology adoption; employment |
| JEL: | J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98805 |
| By: | Jan Frankowski; Jakub Sokolowski; Joanna Mazurkiewicz; Aleksandra Prusak |
| Abstract: | The study includes a procedure and recommendations for collecting data on energy poverty at the building level, available in national and local government registers. The adopted analytical process allowed for developing various energy renovation scenarios for municipal buildings in Warsaw, considering a balance between social, environmental and economic goals in urban policy and identifying locations with the highest exposure to energy poverty. As a result of the analysis, we propose establishing an intracity working group to discuss issues related to the residential energy transition as well as criteria, weights and indicators of intervention; developing a city definition of energy retrofit, along with the introduction of measurable criteria for the energy efficiency of buildings; ensuring the completeness, interoperability, and further development of the city's internal data monitoring system. |
| Keywords: | energy poverty, retrofits, multi-family buildings, administrative data, Warsaw |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:report:rr012024 |
| By: | Lee, Jaehyun; Lim, Jihye; Hwang, Junseok; Lee, Junmin |
| Abstract: | As artificial intelligence (AI) advances, it has become involved in decision-making that can significantly affect people's lives. Organizations have adopted AI in their human resource planning which makes decisions over workers and impacts their livelihoods. For the impact of decisions, it can potentially lead to conflicting opinions within organizations. When workers form their opinions on AI decision-making, how do the counterparts surrounding them, namely the organization and the AI, affect their opinions? To answer this question, we analyze how workers' trust created by the organization and their perceptions arising from the AI influence their opinions on allowing AI to make decisions of recruitment and dismissal. We find that workers' trust in organizational management of AI significantly affects their permission for AI to decide who is recruited and dismissed. Also, we confirm that workers' perceptions on AI are significant factors influencing their trust in organizational management of AI. Our findings suggest that in organizations where workers' trust in organizational management of AI is established, AI can be applied to make critical decisions about individuals. These results imply that as AI becomes more commonly involved in organizations' decision-making, the role of managing trust within organizations will become increasingly significant. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, worker trust, organizational decision, human resource, decision making |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302513 |
| By: | Khellil Khaled (OEB - Université Larbi-Ben-Mhidi [Oum-El-Bouaghi]); Loucif Kamilia (OEB - Université Larbi-Ben-Mhidi [Oum-El-Bouaghi]) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to assess the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in Algeria from 2010 to 2022 and their contribution to economic diversification and reducing Algeria's reliance on oil revenues, using descriptive and analytical techniques plus the inductive approach to examine and analyze data collected, the study shows that Algeria's small and medium-sized enterprises are vulnerable and ineffective at contributing to the country's economic diversification, and their extensive orientation towards the services and construction sectors does not help create added value despite the significant growth in their count during the period of study. |
| Keywords: | Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Economic Diversification Algerian exports. JEL Classification Codes : Q32 Q37, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, Economic Diversification, Algerian exports. JEL Classification Codes : Q32, Q37 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684569 |
| By: | Lara Coulier; Alessio Reghezza |
| Abstract: | We match granular supervisory and credit register data to assess the implications of banks' exposure to interest rate risk on the monetary policy transmission to bank lending supply in the euro area. We exploit the largest and swiftest increase in interest rates since the creation of the euro and find that banks with a higher exposure to interest rate risk, i.e., with a larger duration gap after accounting for hedging, curtailed corporate lending more than their peers. Ceteris paribus, greater interest rate risk entails closer supervisory scrutiny and potential capital surcharges in the short term, and lower expected profitability and capital accumulation in the medium to long term. We then proceed to dissect banks' credit allocation and find that banks with higher net duration reshuffled their loan portfolio away from long-term loans in an attempt to limit the increase in interest rate risk and targeted their lending contraction to small and micro firms. Firms exposed to banks with a larger exposure to interest rate risk were unable to fully rebalance their borrowing needs with other lenders, thus experiencing a relatively larger decrease in total borrowing during the monetary tightening episode. |
| Keywords: | interest rate risk, duration gap, bank lending channel, financial stability |
| JEL: | E51 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1202 |
| By: | James M. Brand; Mert Demirer; Connor Finucane; Avner A. Kreps |
| Abstract: | Computing technologies have become critical inputs to production in the modern firm. However, there is little large-scale evidence on how efficiently firms use these technologies. In this paper, we study firm productivity and learning in cloud computing by leveraging CPU utilization data from over one billion virtual machines used by nearly 100, 000 firms. We find large and persistent heterogeneity in compute productivity both across and within firms, similar to canonical results in the literature. More productive firms respond better to demand fluctuations, show higher attentiveness to resource utilization, and use a wider variety of specialized machines. Notably, productivity is dynamic as firms learn to be more productive over time. New cloud adopters improve their productivity by 33% in their first year and reach the productivity level of experienced firms within four years. In our counterfactual calculations, we estimate that raising all firms to the 80th percentile of productivity would reduce aggregate electricity usage by 17%. |
| JEL: | D24 L86 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32938 |
| By: | Manuel Díaz; Carmen Marín; Diego Martínez |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo se aplica la metodología seguida por la Comisión Europea para descomponer el saldo presupuestario de las regiones españolas en sus componentes cíclico y estructural en el periodo 2022-2023. Las Comunidades Autónomas (CC.AA.) cerraron 2023 con un déficit del 0, 9% del PIB en términos de Contabilidad Nacional. Tras realizar los ajustes correspondientes estimamos también un desequilibrio estructural del 0, 9% del PIB para el conjunto del subsector. Ello indica que el déficit público autonómico se explica principalmente por decisiones autonómicas y variables estructurales de gastos e ingresos y no por el ciclo económico. Las diferencias entre CC. AA. son sustanciales. Asturias, Cantabria y Navarra logran superávits estructurales y la C. Valenciana, Cataluña y la R. de Murcia los déficits estructurales más elevados. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2024-30 |
| By: | De La Cruz, Marjorie; Abi-Hassan, Sahar; Denly, Michael |
| Abstract: | We provide a reproduction and replication of Brutger (2024), which examines the effects of the University of California, Berkeley's Pipeline Initiative in Political Science (PIPS) program on five self-reported outcomes related to interest and preparation towards pursuing graduate school. We are able to reproduce the author's results but do note some minor coding challenges. Our additional replication analysis confirms that the study's original results are robust to different model specifications. In future analysis of PIPS, we suggest that the author address our suggestions regarding the wording of the survey questions, sample selection, and statistical power. Overall, we commend the author on a good study of an important topic. |
| Keywords: | Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, DEI, Political Science, Graduate School, Program Evaluation, Randomized Controlled Trial |
| JEL: | D63 M14 I24 I23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:152 |
| By: | Lavrič, Mitja; Lenarčič, Črt |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we focus on the analysis of the drivers of LSTI ratio dynamics. Against this backdrop, we try to bridge this gap by introducing an average synthetic LSTI calculation and examine how various factors affect the LSTI ratio of borrowers that took out consumer and housing loans in Slovenia based on monthly frequency data spanning from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2023. We note that the general growth of the incomes of consumers who took out loans inhibited the growth of the average LSTI ratio. Factors affecting the LSTI ratio had an offsetting effect on the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a consumer loan, while factors affecting the LSTI ratio caused an increase in the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a housing loan. One of the more important factors that influenced the growth of the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a housing loan was the increase in the interest rate for housing loans. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policy, LSTI Ratio, Borrower-Based Measures. |
| JEL: | C10 C40 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122036 |
| By: | Lin William Cong; Pulak Ghosh; Jiasun Li; Qihong Ruan |
| Abstract: | Using proprietary data from the predominant cryptocurrency exchange in India together with the country's Household Inflation Expectations Survey, we document a significantly positive association between inflation expectations and individual cryptocurrency purchases. Higher inflation expectations are also associated with more new investors in cryptocurrencies. We investigate investment heterogeneity in multiple dimensions, and find the effect to be concentrated in Bitcoin (BTC) and Tether (USDT) trading. The results are robust after controlling for speculative demand captured by surveys of investors' expected cryptocurrency returns, and admit causal interpretations as confirmed using multiple instrumental variables. Our findings provide direct evidence that households already adopt cryptocurrencies for inflation hedging, which in turn rationalizes their high adoption in developing countries without a globally dominant currency. |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32945 |
| By: | Nolan H. Miller; David Molitor; Eric Zou |
| Abstract: | We estimate how acute air pollution exposure from wildfire smoke impacts human health in the U.S., allowing for nonlinear effects. Wildfire smoke is pervasive and produces air quality shocks of varying intensity, depending on wind patterns and plume thickness. Using administrative Medicare records for 2007–2019, we estimate that wildfire smoke accounts for 18% of ambient PM2.5 concentrations, 0.42% of deaths, and 0.69% of emergency room visits among adults aged 65 and over. Smaller pollution shocks have outsized health impacts, indicating significant health benefits from improving air quality, even in areas meeting current regulatory standards. |
| JEL: | I18 J14 Q51 Q53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32924 |
| By: | Antinyan, Armenak (Thames Water); Burn, Ian (University of Liverpool); Jones, Melanie K. (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | While hiring discrimination against disabled candidates is widely documented, the reasons for such discrimination and the mechanisms designed to reduce it are not well understood. This study aims to tackle these questions through a large-scale correspondence study. Fictitious job applications were sent to about 4, 000 job vacancies for accountants and financial accounts assistants in the UK. Consistent with discrimination, we find a 5.6 percentage point (15%) gap in the employer callback rate associated with mobility impairment indicated by the use of a wheelchair, but substantial occupational heterogeneity. Productivity signals designed to reduce statistical discrimination, including the offer of a positive reference from a previous employer and, enhanced education and technical skills, do not reduce, and actually widen, the disability gap in callbacks. Our findings are suggestive of taste-based discrimination being a significant barrier to employment for disabled people that requires policy attention. |
| Keywords: | disability, discrimination, correspondence studies, productivity signals |
| JEL: | J14 J71 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17290 |
| By: | Ruly Marianti |
| Keywords: | poverty dynamics, welfare mobility, East Java, North Maluku, West Timor |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:437 |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi; Domonkos F. Vamossy |
| Abstract: | Credit scores are critical for allocating consumer debt in the United States, yet little evidence is available on their performance. We benchmark a widely used credit score against a machine learning model of consumer default and find significant misclassification of borrowers, especially those with low scores. Our model improves predictive accuracy for young, low-income, and minority groups due to its superior performance with low quality data, resulting in a gain in standing for these populations. Our findings suggest that improving credit scoring performance could lead to more equitable access to credit. |
| JEL: | C45 D14 E27 G21 G24 G5 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32917 |
| By: | Aurazo, Jose; Gasmi, Farid |
| Abstract: | Digitization of retail payments has facilitated the promotion of financial inclusion recognized to stimulate growth, alleviate poverty, and address gender disparities in the financial sector. This paper closely examines four prominent payment solutions in the developing world, which are M-Pesa in Kenya, UPI in India, Pix in Brazil, and Yape in Peru. We employ a descriptive approach to identify the main factors that have contributed to the success of these digital payment systems, focusing on the role played by: i) private digital platforms developers and providers; ii) regulators and central banks and iii) the degree of the payment system interoperability. Although, to some extent, these varied experiences suggest that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, they highlight the necessity of active public-private sector cooperation and placing the end user at the center of such initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Digital payments; Financial inclusion; Interoperability; Regulation. |
| JEL: | G23 G28 L51 L96 O16 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129719 |
| By: | Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS; Complexity Science Hub Vienna); Elma Dervic (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Complexity Science Hub Vienna); Klaus Friesenbichler (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Markus Gerschberger (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, FHOÖ); Liuhuaying Yang (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Complexity Science Hub Vienna) |
| Abstract: | The world is currently facing an antibiotics shortage due to two main factors: the concentration of production in China and India, and the industry being caught off-guard by the rapid increase in demand following the Covid-19 pandemic. This study provides a detailed analysis of the situation and offers three policy recommendations. First, health policies should invest in improving demand tracking, planning, and forecasting infrastructure, particularly for drugs with no available substitutes. Second, health systems must ensure a sufficient provision of drugs at low prices. While the international division of labour has provided price efficiency, it has also exposed supply security risks. Finally, the market structure should internalize these supply security risks to avoid the need for ad-hoc policy interventions in the future. |
| Keywords: | Antibiotics Shortage, Global Supply Chain, Healthcare Policy, Drug Supply Security, Covid-19, China, India |
| Date: | 2023–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:wpaper:001 |
| By: | Adong, Annet; Ambler, Kate; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; de Brauw, Alan; Herskowitz, Sylvan; Islam, AHM Saiful; Wagner, Julia |
| Abstract: | Intermediary firms within agri-food value chains operating between the farmgate and retailers typically account for at least as much, if not more, value added as the primary agricultural production sector of the economy, but little is known about how these small and largely informal firms conduct their business. Drawing on a set of innovative surveys implemented amid the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda and the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh, we describe the financial activities of the firms that transform agricultural produce into food. We document four sets of results. First, across all intermediary actors in our data the overwhelming majority of transactions are cash-based. Second, although many intermediary actors are un-banked, access to financial accounts varies considerably by value chain segment, commodity, and country. Third, while most intermediary actors report using mobile money for personal purposes, especially in Uganda, very few use mobile money to facilitate business transactions. Fourth, although intermediary actors frequently report exposure to risk, very few effectively manage this risk. We conclude by discussing how intermediary agri-food value chain actors represent an underappreciated population for the promotion of new technologies both to improve the stability of the agricultural sector and to improve outcomes among smallholder farmers. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; finance; mobile phones; technology; value chains; Africa; Eastern Africa; Asia; Southern Asia; Bangladesh; Uganda |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2266 |
| By: | Trinidad, Jose Eos (The University of Chicago); Lancet, Daniel; Wang, Lin-Chiun |
| Abstract: | Empirical information on education nonprofits is needed to understand their impact, variation, and distribution. Using tax data from 233, 897 nonprofits, this paper highlights three clusters of nonprofits (educational institutions, professional improvement organizations, associational groups), subdivided into ten groups and 29 types. It presents their distribution and offers other insights. Spatially, nonprofits are prevalent in large states and cities, but the top 500 cities only make up half of all nonprofits. Temporally, there has been an explosion of nonprofits founded since 2010, many driven by professional rather than associational organizations. Financially, more than half of nonprofits reported zero revenue and assets. We discuss various data strengths and limitations, opportunities for new research, and contribution to education policy and politics. |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9u8v6 |
| By: | Ghasemi, Parisa (University of Coimbra); Teixeira, Paulino (University of Coimbra); Carreira, Carlos (University of Coimbra) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the impact of the share of the foreign labor force on the wage of native workers in Portugal between 2010 and 2019 using linked employer-employee data from Quadros de Pessoal. By leveraging job characteristics from the O*NET skill taxonomy, we create more homogeneous skill groups, enabling a precise analysis of immigration's impact on specific skill sets. The empirical analysis, focusing on occupation-experience groups, reveals a positive association between native wages and immigrant shares. In contrast, when groups are based on education-experience, the relationship appears negative. These contradictory findings suggest that the impact of immigration on native wages varies significantly depending on how labor markets are segmented. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates a positive and statistically significant effect on native wages in high-skilled occupations, while native wages in low-skilled occupations are negatively affected due to increased competition. Our findings highlight the importance of considering occupation classification over simple education levels and suggest that diverse results in existing literature may be due to sample averaging. |
| Keywords: | immigration, native wages, native-immigrants' complementarities |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17266 |
| By: | LEVENTI Chrysa (European Commission - JRC); MAZZON Alberto (European Commission - JRC); ORLANDI Fabrice |
| Abstract: | In 2022 inflation hit European economies in a severe way. To protect the purchasing power of households, EU Member States adopted a series of exceptional fiscal policy measures. In this paper, we turn our focus on wage indexation, a policy option that has been relatively less explored in the relevant literature. Our objective is to analyse the (first-order) fiscal and distributional impact of wage indexation and of its two main subsequent effects, fiscal drag and benefit erosion. Using EUROMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU, we construct three hypothetical scenarios with uniform/diversified inflation shocks and with/without compensation schemes for the income losses caused by benefit erosion. We find that the budgetary impact of wage indexation varies widely among European countries. Interestingly, we also observe that in most countries, the relative magnitude of fiscal drag and benefit erosion is not affected by the magnitude of the increase in employment income. Our estimates suggest that in almost half of the countries, fiscal drag and benefit erosion cause an implicit increase in government revenues sufficient to finance an indexation of benefits and pensions to the inflation of that year. The latter would be associated with a substantial decrease in income inequality in the vast majority of EU Member States. Finally, we discuss how the existing automatic indexation adjustments embedded in EU countries’ personal income tax schedules affect the magnitude and distributional implications of fiscal drag. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202408 |
| By: | Tomer Blumkin (BGU); Spencer Bastani (IFAU and Department of Economics, Uppsala University;); Luca Micheletto (Department of Law, University of Milan) |
| Keywords: | optimal taxation, signaling, status, redistribution |
| JEL: | H21 D63 D82 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:2412 |
| By: | Marco Boccaccio (Università Sapienza di Roma - Dipartimento di Studi Giuridici ed Economici) |
| Abstract: | La politica dela concorrenza è una finestra per comprendere il modo in cui è cambiato nel il ruolo dello Stato in economia. Due paradigmi si sono succeduti in un andamento pendolare, quello di adjudication basato sull’intervento ex post per correggere comportmenti in violazione edlle norme, e quello di regulation volto a discplinare ex ante comportamenti futuri. |
| Keywords: | government intervention; antitrust; law and economics |
| JEL: | A12 H10 K00 K L |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00065 |
| By: | Mahdum Adanan |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3630 |
| By: | Andersson, Martin (Institutionen för industriell ekonomi); Larsson, Johan P. (Department of Land Economy); Öner, Özge (Department of Land Economy) |
| Abstract: | Bristande integration och ökad segregation innebär konsekvenser för både individer och samhället som helhet. Att växa upp i ett område som karaktäriseras av hög andel personer med utländsk bakgrund, hög arbetslöshet och låg utbildningsnivå, anses allmänt vara negativt. Men, vad säger forskningen om grannskapets betydelse? I den här ESO-rapporten analyserar Martin Andersson, Johan P Larsson och Özge Öner sambanden mellan egenskaper i det grannskap där personer med utländsk bakgrund växer upp och förutsättningar för integration. Rapporten visar att egenskaper i grannskapet har betydelse för individens livschanser. Både invandrare och barn till invandrare som är födda och uppvuxna i Sverige påverkas. Att bo nära personer med liknande bakgrund kan däremot vara positivt för individens möjligheter, både när det gäller uppnådd utbildningsnivå och etablering på arbetsmarknaden. Resultaten ligger i linje med internationell forskning om grannskapseffekter och förklaras bland annat av goda förebilder, sociala nätverk samt kunskaper om arbetsmarknaden och normer. Författarna konstaterar att det behövs olika former av insatser för att hantera såväl framväxt som konsekvenser av socioekonomisk segregation. Det handlar om att vidta åtgärder där det finns socioekonomiska utmaningar parallellt med åtgärder som påverkar orsakerna till problemen. Rapporten bidrar till ökad kunskap om grannskapets betydelse för integrationen i Sverige, men det är viktigt med ytterligare forskning om kausala samband och effektiva åtgärder. |
| Keywords: | Arbetsmarknad; Bostadsmarknad; Integration; Migration; Segregation; Utbildning; |
| Date: | 2024–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:esorep:2024_003 |
| By: | Ahmadzadeh, Amirreza |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a principal-agent model that the princi-pal mandates actions and conducts costly inspections without transfers. The principal prefers lower actions, while the agent prefers higher ac-tions and has private information about his type. The agent is protected by ex-post participation and rejects any action below his private type. The principal faces a trade-off between mandating lower actions and the risk the the agent rejects actions and chooses his outside option. We analyze various levels of the principal’s commitment ability. If the principal can commit to both inspections and actions when no inspec-tion is performed, and if the principal’s fear of ruin is greater than the agent’s, then a deterministic inspection policy is optimal. Additionally, if the principal cannot commit to either inspections or actions, the highest equilibrium payoff does not involve non-deterministic inspec-tion strategies. Finally, if the inspection cost is low and the principal commits to inspecting whenever requested by the agent, the principal can achieve the payoff of the optimal deterministic inspection policy.. |
| Keywords: | Costly state verification; mechanism design; cheap talk; inspection, limited commitment, regulation. |
| JEL: | D82 D86 M48 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129712 |
| By: | Fredy Gamboa-Estrada; José Vicente Romero |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of sovereign risk, focusing on the impact of geopolitical risk in emerging market economies (EMEs) sovereign risk metrics. Using local projection techniques, we evaluate the effects of geopolitical risk on credit default swaps (CDS) and EMBI indices in EMEs, including the recent war between Ukraine and Russia. Our findings highlight the significance of considering geopolitical risk when analyzing risk premiums for emerging markets. Notably, we find that the impact of geopolitical risk shocks on CDS is higher than the effect on EMBI spread dynamics. Furthermore, using recursive estimations, we show that the effect of geopolitical risk on sovereign CDS and EMBI spreads has been relatively stable. On the other hand, we find an important degree of heterogeneity across countries by analyzing evidence from individual countries. Some countries in our sample seem statistically unaffected by geopolitical risk, particularly when examining EMBI dynamics. **** RESUMEN: Este estudio examina los determinantes del riesgo soberano, centrándose en el impacto del riesgo geopolítico en las métricas para una muestra de mercados emergentes (EMEs). Utilizando técnicas de proyección local, evaluamos los efectos del riesgo geopolítico en los swaps de incumplimiento crediticio (CDS) y en los índices EMBI, incluyendo la reciente guerra entre Ucrania y Rusia. Nuestros hallazgos resaltan la importancia de considerar el riesgo geopolítico al analizar las primas de riesgo para los mercados emergentes. En particular, encontramos que el impacto de los choques de riesgo geopolítico en los CDS es mayor que el efecto en la dinámica del EMBI. Además, utilizando estimaciones recursivas, mostramos que el efecto del riesgo geopolítico en los CDS soberanos y en el EMBI ha sido relativamente estable. Por otro lado, presentamos evidencia de un importante grado de heterogeneidad entre los países al examinar las estimaciones de países individuales. Algunos países de nuestra muestra parecen no estar afectados por el riesgo geopolítico, particularmente al examinar la dinámica del EMBI. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign risk, credit default swaps, EMBI, emerging markets, geopolitical risk, local projection, riesgo soberano, swaps de incumplimiento crediticio, EMBI, mercados emergentes, riesgo geopolítico, proyecciones locales. |
| JEL: | C22 F37 G15 G17 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1282 |
| By: | Kipchumba, Elijah (Trinity College Dublin); Porter, Catherine (Lancaster University); Serra, Danila (Texas A&M University); Sulaiman, Munshi (BRAC University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of a role model intervention on the gender attitudes, college aspirations and education outcomes of youths in Somalia. In 2018, we randomly selected elementary schools to receive a visit from a college student. Within each treatment school, we selected four grades, two to receive a visit from a female college student and two from a male college student. The "role models" gave unscripted talks about their personal study journeys, including challenges and strategies to overcome setbacks. Six months after the intervention we found a significant and large impact of (only) female role models on boys' and girls' attitudes toward gender equality but no impact on college aspirations. Data collected two and four years later from the cohorts graduating primary school produce smaller and non-significant treatment effects on the survey outcomes, but positive impacts on enrollment in high school and a lower probability of early marriage as reported by teachers. |
| Keywords: | role models, education, gender, aspirations, field experiment, Somalia |
| JEL: | J16 O12 I25 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17261 |
| By: | Stelter, Robert; Baudin, Thomas |
| Abstract: | European fascist regimes have attached great importance to nationalistic families and designed policies to perpetuate them. Most offered policy packages with interest-free loans repayable through childbirth, along with allowances and tax deductions for large families. Using a difference-in-difference approach and Nazi Germany as a case study, we show that these policies may have counterproductive effects due to negative selection mechanisms in the marriage market. The excessive pressure to marry exerted on singles results in lower quality, ultimately less fertile, and more fragile unions. This finding is important as the main European far-right parties today propose reinstating these policy packages. |
| Keywords: | amily policies, Fascism and Nazism, Fertility, Marriage, Divorce, Female labor force participation |
| JEL: | N3 D1 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2024/09 |
| By: | Megan Hogan (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Warwick J. McKibbin (Peterson Institute for International Economics; Australian National University); Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The United States' granting of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, formerly known as most favored nation status, to China in 2000 resulted in a large expansion of bilateral trade. Concerns over Chinese trade practices and the impact of Chinese exports on US import-competing sectors have contributed to US political discontent and calls for the revocation of PNTR, including by former president Donald Trump in his reelection campaign and in the 2024 Republican Party Platform. The authors find that revoking China's PNTR status would cause higher inflation and a short-term decline in US gross domestic product relative to baseline from which the economy never fully recovers. The loss of output and employment would be felt unevenly across the economy, with agriculture, durable manufacturing, and mining taking the biggest hits. Stock market prices would fall, with agricultural, durable manufacturing, and mining firms absorbing the biggest declines. All of these impacts would be magnified if China retaliates. Ironically, the revocation would damage the US industrial sector and contribute to a wider US trade deficit. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb24-9 |
| By: | Matilde Bombardini; Francesco Trebbi; Miao Ben Zhang |
| Abstract: | This article discusses recent methodological innovations in the area of cost and benefit assessment of government regulation, in both a prospective and retrospective sense. Much of the extant progress is presented on the front of private costs of compliance. Private benefits, social costs, and social benefits remain much less systematically organized and more arduous to quantitatively assess, mostly due to the difficulty of standardizing partial and general equilibrium counterfactuals. We offer a discussion of potential future methodological improvements in cost-benefit analysis. |
| JEL: | G28 K2 L50 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32955 |
| By: | Brian Bell; Philip Johnson |
| Abstract: | We examine the wage and occupation outcomes for cohorts of immigrants who arrived in the UK since 2002. Using the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) with a matched migrant identifier, we can follow a 1% sample of all workers (native and migrant) within and across jobs. This also allows us to identify relative attrition rates between natives and migrants. The work focuses in particular on workers who arrived in the UK since 2004 as part of EU expansion. Consistent with prior work, we find substantial evidence of occupational downgrading for these migrants. Importantly, the panel data allows us to track these workers in subsequent years and we find very little evidence of substantial labour market improvement from initial entry. This result is robust to accounting for non-random attrition. |
| Keywords: | wages, immigration |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2032 |
| By: | Cristian Trout |
| Abstract: | Many experts believe that AI systems will sooner or later pose uninsurable risks, including existential risks. This creates an extreme judgment-proof problem: few if any parties can be held accountable ex post in the event of such a catastrophe. This paper proposes a novel solution: a government-provided, mandatory indemnification program for AI developers. The program uses risk-priced indemnity fees to induce socially optimal levels of care. Risk-estimates are determined by surveying experts, including indemnified developers. The Bayesian Truth Serum mechanism is employed to incent honest and effortful responses. Compared to alternatives, this approach arguably better leverages all private information, and provides a clearer signal to indemnified developers regarding what risks they must mitigate to lower their fees. It's recommended that collected fees be used to help fund the safety research developers need, employing a fund matching mechanism (Quadratic Financing) to induce an optimal supply of this public good. Under Quadratic Financing, safety research projects would compete for private contributions from developers, signaling how much each is to be supplemented with public funds. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.06672 |
| By: | Marcus Roesch (Erasmus School of Economics); Michiel Gerritse (Erasmus School of Economics); Bas Karreman (Erasmus School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Do workers in multinational enterprises (MNEs) build stronger CVs? We track the careers of all workers entering the Dutch labor market over the years 2006-2021 and find large and portable wage premia of MNE employment experience. Workers with experience at MNEs instead of domestic firms earn up to 14% higher wages within the MNE, and up to 11% higher wages after moving to another firm. Consistent with a model of MNEs that leverage the value of their employment experience, we find that MNEs hire more juniors, pay lower starting wages, and are more selective towards senior workers than domestic firms. |
| Keywords: | multinationals, experience wage premia, firm organization, AKM, knowledge spillovers, Netherlands |
| JEL: | F23 F66 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–01–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240005 |
| By: | Goldbach, Stefan; Nitsch, Volker |
| Abstract: | This paper explores a monetary experiment, the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador in 2021, to analyze the impact of digital currencies on international capital flows. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that, instead of making transfers easier, El Salvador’s official cross-border financial activity has decreased after the monetary change. This finding may reflect an increase in uncertainty. However, it is also in line with findings that link digital assets to illegal activity as previously officially recorded financial transfers may have been replaced by unrecorded activities. |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149484 |
| By: | Rahim Darma |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3648 |
| By: | Francisco Jos\'e Zamudio S\'anchez; Javier Jim\'enez Machorro; Roxana Arana Ovalle; Hildegardo Mart\'inez Silverio |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the Relative Inequality Index at the Maximum (IDRM), a novel and intuitive measure designed to capture inequality within a population, such as income inequality. The index is based on the idea that individuals experience varying levels of inequality depending on their position within the distribution, particularly with respect to those at the top. The key assumption is that for individuals in lower positions, inequalities referenced to the top positions have greater impact on their well-being and the inequality relative to maximum is the most critical. The IDRM fulfills desirable theoretical properties which were used for its evaluation and comparison against widely accepted measures in inequality literature. From this perspective, the IDRM is shown to be as robust as traditional measures and outperforms the Gini and Dalton indices by satisfying eight out of nine key properties, including decomposability across population subgroups. In a comparative analysis using income data from 58 countries and microdata from Mexico, with the Gini, Theil, and Atkinson indices as benchmarks, the IDRM demonstrates superior consistency, sensitivity to inequality, reduced bias in grouped data, and enhanced precision. This index reflects the varying forms of income distribution, showing heightened sensitivity to the magnitude of inequality. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07538 |
| By: | Pápai, Zoltán; McLean, Aliz; Bukur, Tamás |
| Abstract: | This study examines the changes in consumer prices within the fixed broadband market in Hungary between 2020 and 2023, a period marked by unprecedented, government-backed market consolidation. Leveraging a hedonic price regression methodology, we inspect price changes in the context of internet service provider (ISP) differences, inflation, and various service features offered in broadband plans. The hedonic method allows for quality-adjusted price tracking over time, in addition to offering insights into the intrinsic value placed on various plan characteristics by consumers. We demonstrate that the hedonic methodology holds significant value for regulators and market players in developing effective price monitoring systems. Our analysis reveals that following the market consolidation, the previously stagnant price level increased, and the pricing strategies of the three major service providers underwent notable transformations. The two providers involved in the consolidation significantly raised their prices, with Vodafone becoming the most expensive provider in the country and Digi nearly losing its price advantage. By the end of the period, the third player, Telekom, offered more favourable hedonic prices compared to 2020. The cumulative increase in the average hedonic price index over the examined period was almost 20%, remaining significantly below the change in the consumer price index. The estimated intrinsic prices of the various fixed broadband plan characteristics are consistent with previous literature. The study underlines the utility of the hedonic methodology in providing nuanced insights into ISP pricing behaviour and fixed retail telecom market dynamics. The study opens up potential areas for future research, such as extending the analysis to television and voice telephony and monitoring future trends in light of the recent changes in market structure. |
| Keywords: | hedonic regression, telecommunications, fixed broadband, pricing, Hungary |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302499 |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | CBO discusses the outlook for housing starts over the next 30 years and describes the methodology behind its projections. (Housing starts are the number of new single-family and multifamily housing units on which construction has been started.) |
| JEL: | E27 O18 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:60191 |
| By: | Gautam, Sanghmitra; Gechter, Michael; Guiteras, Raymond P.; Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq |
| Abstract: | We conduct an organized review of intervention-based studies that aim to promote improved sanitation adoption and use RCTs for evaluation. We impose systematic inclusion criteria to identify such studies, and compile their microdata to harmonize outcome and covariate measures as well as estimands across studies. We then re-analyze their data to report metrics that are consistently defined and measured across studies. We compare the relative effectiveness of different classes of interventions implemented in overlapping ways across four countries: community-level demand encouragement, sanitation subsidies, product information campaigns, and offering microcredit to finance product purchases. Interventions with financial benefits generally outperform information and education campaigns. Effects are typically larger for households with higher shares of women and differ little by poverty status, but more research is needed to confirm our conclusions on effect heterogeneity by household characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nccewp:340057 |
| By: | Margherita Comola (Université Paris-Saclay (RITM), PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Agnieszka Rusinowska (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marie Claire Villeval (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics) |
| Abstract: | We experimentally investigate how players with opposing views compete for influence through strategic targeting in networks. We varied the network structure, the relative influence of the opponent, and the heterogeneity of the nodes' initial opinions. Although most players adopted a best-response strategy based on their relative influence, we also observed behaviors deviating from this strategy, such as the tendency to target central nodes and avoid nodes targeted by the opponent. Targeting is also affected by affinity and opposition biases, the strength of which depends on the distribution of initial opinions. |
| Keywords: | Network, Influence, Targeting, Competition, Experiment |
| Date: | 2024–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-04706311 |
| By: | Manaka, Kyoko; Kikuchi, Hinata; Nakamura, Akihiro |
| Abstract: | Efforts to promote the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), which contribute to the realization of a carbon-neutral society, are being discussed. According to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association, the share of EVs in new passenger car sales was approximately 1.16% in the period ending December 2024, with a total share of about 1.85%. Past surveys related to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)indicate that factors such as driving range and vehicle specifications, as well as the availability of charging facilities, are key to their widespread adoption (Pysalska et al., 2022; Phillipsen et al., 2020; Khan et al., 2017; Kudoh and Motose, 2010). There are different types of EV charging facilities, such as regular recharging facilities which take several hours to charge for a 100 km drive and fast charging facilities which take about 30 minutes to charge for a 100 km drive. The installation cost of the former is relatively low, and it can be installed in individual homes using subsidies. In contrast, the installation cost of the latter ranges from 10 to 20 million yen, making it impractical for individual homes and used by the public in a manner similar to current gasoline stations. Additionally, there are Super-fast charging facilities called Superchargers, dedicated to Tesla vehicles, which allow significantly faster charging than fast charging facilities. Currently, fast charging facilities are mainly installed in locations such as automobile dealerships, convenience stores, roadside stations, and expressways (SA/PA), with 40% of installations at automobile dealerships, while only 10% are at convenience stores and roadside stations/highways (Source: March 2023, e-mobility power charging spot list). On the other hand, regular recharging facilities are installed mainly in destinations with long stay times such as hotels and shopping malls, in addition to individual home installations. The necessity for adequate recharging facilities is evident as BEV usage can only become widespread if users have convenient access to recharging options. In Japan, over 29, 000 recharging facilities exist, with approximately 70% being regular recharging facilities and 30% being fast recharging facilities. It is relatively easy to install in detached houses but challenging in apartment buildings. According to the "Housing and Land Statistics Survey" by the Statistics Bureau of Japan in 2018, 53.6% of households live in detached houses, and 43.5% live in apartment buildings, with the percentage of apartment dwellers reaching 71% in Tokyo. This higher ratio in urban areas presents a challenge to the widespread installation of charging facilities. While installing regular recharging facilities in individual homes is relatively easy, in apartment-type residences, it is necessary to obtain approval from the residents' association, which is organized by the inhabitants, to install charging facilities in communal parking areas. these households face significant constraints in installing personal recharging stations in their parking spaces. This is one reason why apartment dwellers hesitate to purchase BEVs. Charging facilities remain idle when not in use and are suitable for shared use. In fact, public fast recharging facilities are used as shared infrastructure. While regular recharging facilities are generally installed in individual homes and are not typically considered for shared use, the advancement of ICT and the widespread ownership of smartphones suggest that shared use of regular recharging facilities in individual homes would be quite feasible. Previous studies highlight the critical role of ICT in optimizing various services and systems, including transportation. For instance, Benevolo et al. (2016) and Jittrapirom et al. (2017) emphasize how ICT can enhance smart mobility and user-centered mobility services. Breidbach and Brodie (2017) discuss the sharing economy's reliance on ICT for facilitating value co-creation and engagement. Billhardt et al. (2019) demonstrate how ICT improves the matching efficiency of cab dispatch services. These studies would indicate that ICT may contribute the matching efficiency of recharging facilities online. In Japan, currently, it is possible to search for recharging facilities online, but there are not many facilities that can be reserved via apps. If recharging facilities become more widely available, and if it becomes possible to check their real-time availability and make reservations using a smartphone app, this is likely to increase the willingness to purchase EVs. Especially in Japanese urban areas with a high ratio of apartment dwellers, the efficient use of infrastructure, including regular recharging facilities, is essential for high EV adoption rates. Based on this awareness, this study aims to explore the impact of enhanced availability of charging facilities, such as through sharing and online reservations, on the intention to purchase BEVs in urban areas of Japan with high apartment dwelling ratios. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302467 |
| By: | Lin William Cong; Xiaohong Huang; Siguang Li; Jian Ni |
| Abstract: | We revisit the relationship between firm competition and real efficiency in a novel setting with informational feedback from financial markets. Although intensified competition can decrease market concentration in production, it reduces the value of proprietary information (e.g., market prospects) for speculators and discourages information production and price discovery in financial markets. Therefore, competition generates non-monotonic welfare effects through two competing channels: market concentration and information production. When information reflected in stock prices is sufficiently valuable for production decisions, competition can harm both consumer welfare and real efficiency. Our results are robust under cross-asset trading and learning and highlight the importance of considering the interaction between product market and financial market in antitrust policy, e.g., concerning the regulation of horizontal mergers. |
| JEL: | D61 D83 G14 G34 G40 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32944 |
| By: | Robson, Sally (Resources for the Future); Russell, Ethan (Resources for the Future); Shawhan, Daniel (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Electricity from offshore wind is considered important for reducing energy-related emissions because of its ability to serve coastal areas and complement other nonemitting electricity sources. However, there are open questions about the degree to which it will replace emitting versus other nonemitting generation, improve public health, and affect the total cost of the electricity supply. In the face of recent input cost increases and project cancellations, governments are deciding how strongly to support offshore wind development. To help with such decisions, we project and evaluate several effects of a set of 32 planned or proposed offshore wind farms along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States, which would produce approximately 2.5 percent of US and Canadian electricity generation. We examine how those offshore wind farms would affect other electricity generation capacity, generation, emissions, health, costs for electricity and natural gas customers, profits of the electricity and natural gas supply industries, and net government revenues, in the year 2035. We include capital expenditure recovery and financing among the costs.In our modeling results, from a detailed power sector capacity expansion and dispatch model, the offshore wind farms’ estimated net benefits are positive, with an estimated benefit-to-cost ratio of 14 to 1. Generation from the offshore wind farms disproportionately reduces natural gas and coal-fueled generation, causing large emissions reductions. Further, the emissions reductions tend to be upwind of densely populated areas. Consequently, the offshore wind farms reduce annual estimated US premature deaths from airborne particulate matter and ground-level ozone by 520 per year. Black, Hispanic, and low-income Americans account for a disproportionately large share of the premature deaths avoided, as do residents of the New York City area. The offshore wind farms reduce worldwide projected future deaths from climate change by 1, 600 per year of their operation. The offshore wind farms increase the overall nonenvironmental costs of the electricity supply but reduce customer electricity and natural gas bills. Though our study is relatively comprehensive, it, like others, does not include all benefits and costs. Notably, it does not include estimates of the likely downward effect of the 32 offshore wind farms on the cost of subsequent offshore wind development or the benefits of the increased future development that is likely to result. |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-24-17 |
| By: | Flam, Harry (Institutet för internationell ekonomi); Persson, Mats (Institutet för internationell ekonomi) |
| Abstract: | Hur kan det komma sig att den svenska kronan bara blir svagare när den svenska ekonomin är både stark och välskött och inflationen är låg? På sommaren påminns allmänheten ofta om den svenska kronans värde i förhållande till utländsk valuta och – mot bakgrund av att den svenska kronan under 2023 sjönk till de lägsta nivåerna någonsin mot euron och dollarn – kan det finnas anledning att fundera lite extra på semesterkassans storlek i år. Men även på hemmaplan märks det att den svenska kronan är svag eftersom många importerade varor blir dyrare. Samtidigt är en svag krona positiv för företagens internationella konkurrenskraft då svenska varor blir billigare utomlands. I den här rapporten till ESO undersöker Harry Flam och Mats Persson den svenska kronans utveckling de senaste 30 åren, sedan 1993 då kronkursen blev rörlig fram till idag. Fundamentala makrovariabler som inflation, tillväxt och produktivitet kan förklara förhållandevis lite och det är svårt att förklara varför den svenska kronan har fallit så mycket mot euron och amerikanska dollarn de senaste åren. En observation är att den svenska kronan är en finansiell tillgång och, som med andra finansiella tillgångar, går det inte att med någon större säkerhet förutspå hur kronan kommer att utvecklas i framtiden. Men för att bättre kunna sia om kronans utveckling krävs djupare kunskap om hur finansiella marknader och internationella finansiella flöden påverkar växelkursen. |
| Keywords: | Finansiella kriser; Offentliga finanser; Stabiliseringspolitik; Växelkurs; |
| Date: | 2024–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:esorep:2024_004 |
| By: | Lee, Seonjin; Pennington-Gray, Lori |
| Abstract: | Resilience has emerged as a critical focus in tourism studies, but the literature on tourism resilience is still embryonic and largely conceptual. This study presents a novel approach that is designed for pre-event assessment of tourism sector resilience. We tested the index by predicting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on South Korean and US domestic tourism. Tourism sectors with diversified and balanced demand experienced a greater disruption. Nonetheless, these destinations were able to recover quickly and attract more tourists after recovery. The findings demonstrate that the index captures the responsiveness of the tourism sector. With high versatility and low data requirements, our resilience assessment tool offers opportunity to advance our understanding of tourism resilience and inform policy decisions. |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:984nr |
| By: | Barry Eichengreen (University of California, Berkeley); Poonam Gupta (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi) |
| Abstract: | We assess India’s inflation-targeting regime at the eight-year mark. The Reserve Bank of India continues to be a flexible inflation targeter: it responds to both the output gap and inflation when setting policy rates. It has become neither more hawkish nor more reactive with the transition to inflation-targeting. Evidence points to improved outcomes: inflation is lower and less volatile; inflation expectations are better anchored; and the transmission of monetary policy is more effective. Given this record, radical changes such as broadening the RBI’s monetary mandate, abandoning the target in favor of a more discretionary regime, targeting core instead of headline inflation, or altering the target and tolerance band would be risky and counterproductive. One obvious area for improvement entails updating the weight of food prices in the CPI basket. We estimate the correct weight of food at today’s per capita income to be closer to 40 percent instead of the current 45.8 percent. This would likely fall further to around 30 percent in a decade from now due to the projected increase in per capita incomes. This correction should ameliorate concerns about the design and practice of the current inflation targeting regime. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting, Monetary Policy, India |
| JEL: | E5 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:174 |
| By: | MAIER Sofia (European Commission - JRC); DE POLI Silvia (European Commission - JRC); AMORES Antonio F (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Carbon taxes on household consumption can simultaneously increase public funding and promote greener consumption habits, an appealing combination for the just transition plans of the European Union (EU). However, concerns about equity and public support pose challenges. This paper assesses the distributional and budgetary effects of various designs for an EU-wide hypothetical carbon tax on households consumption. To this end, we extend the EU tax-benefit microsimulation model, EUROMOD, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data from input-output tables and estimate households’ carbon footprints. We show that a carbon tax on households GHG emissions would be regressive, thereby inequality-increasing. This is primarily due to the low income elasticity of highly GHG-intense necessity goods, such as food and heating, which represent larger shares of income at the bottom of the distribution. Still, we demonstrate that this inequality-increasing impact can be offset with compensatory cash transfers (though these may be challenging to implement), and at least partially reverted with more progressive (and presumably feasible) tax designs, including rate differentiation by products and tax allowances. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202409 |
| By: | Siegfried, Doreen; Scherp, Guido; Linek, Stephanie; Flieger, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie untersucht Open-Science-Praktiken in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften an deutschen Hochschulen und Forschungseinrichtungen. Insgesamt 314 Wissenschaftler:innen aus verschiedenen wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Disziplinen haben an einer Online-Umfrage teilgenommen, um Fragen zu ihren Einstellungen, Anwendungen sowie Barrieren und Anreizen im Zusammenhang mit Open Science zu beantworten. Zudem wurde der Bedarf an Unterstützung in diesem Bereich ermittelt. Die Ergebnisse verdeutlichen eine zunehmende Akzeptanz und Implementierung von Open-Science-Methoden, wobei bedeutende Unterschiede zwischen den verschiedenen Institutionstypen bestehen. Das Forschungsdatenmanagement, die Nutzung von Open-Access-Publikationen und die Integration offener Daten und Codes in den Publikationsprozess wurden als zentrale Aspekte identifiziert. Die Studie bietet umfassende Einblicke in den gegenwärtigen Stand und die Herausforderungen von Open Science in der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Forschung. |
| Abstract: | This study examines Open Science practices among economic researchers at German universities and research institutions. A total of 314 scientists from different economic disciplines took part in an online survey to answer questions about their attitudes, applications, barriers, and incentives in relation to Open Science. The need for support in this area was also identified. The results show an increasing acceptance and implementation of Open Science methods, with significant differences between different types of institutions. The management of research data, the use of Open Access publications, and the integration of Open Data and codes into the publication process were identified as key aspects. The study provides a comprehensive insight into the current landscape and challenges of open science in economic research. |
| Keywords: | Open Science, Open-Science-Praktiken, Open Access, Open Data, Reproduzierbarkeit, Transparenz, Wissenschaft |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:303026 |
| By: | Pascal Bougssere (UV-BF - Université virtuelle du Burkna Faso); Mamadou Toe (UTS - Université Thomas Sankara); Wend-Kuuni Raïssa Yerbanga (UTS - Université Thomas Sankara) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the influence of microcredit financing conditions on the financial performance of microenterprises in Burkina Faso. To this end, an analysis was carried out using a linear model for a sample of 129 microenterprises based on panel data from 2017 to 2019. The results obtained using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method show that the amount of microcredit and the repayment period have a positive impact on the financial performance of microenterprises. In contrast, the interest rate, proximity to microfinance institutions (MFIs) and the gender of the business owner negatively affect this performance. These results emphasize that in the Burkinabe context, proximity to MFIs does not guarantee the profitability of microenterprises, but rather benefits MFIs in repaying loans and expanding their portfolio. They also indicate that women-led micro-enterprises are less profitable because they have difficulties accessing credit, particularly due to a lack of collateral. Conversely, businesses run by educated owners have better financial performance. |
| Keywords: | Financing conditions, microcredit, microenterprise, financial performance |
| Date: | 2024–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04692353 |
| By: | Schaefer, Bruno Marques (Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro); Feres, Joao Jr (State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)); Santos, Fabiano Guilherme Mendes; Manes, Matteo de Barros |
| Abstract: | Este boletim é o segundo de uma série sobre eleições municipais no Acre, fruto da parceria entre a Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC) e o Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos (IESP) da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ). Seu objetivo é analisar, de maneira histórica e comparada, os resultados de uma série de políticas públicas dos municípios do estado do Acre. Com isso, colocamos em tela os desafios para prefeitos/as e vereadores/as que serão eleitos/as no pleito que se avizinha. Destacamos a cobertura de atenção básica em saúde acima da média nacional, e a redução nas taxas de mortes violentas. No entanto, existem desafios persistentes, como o desempenho educacional abaixo da média nacional e as altas taxas de feminicídio. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gb3k8 |
| By: | Jay Euijung Lee; Martina Zanella |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamic responses of political parties to gender quotas in South Korean municipal councils, a setting with nearly zero women pre-quota. We exploit two unique institutional features: the quota intensity is discontinuous in council size; the quota regulates only one of two election arms. Political parties initially counteract the quota by nominating fewer women in the unregulated arm, but gradually reverse this response over time. Guided by a dynamic model of discrimination, we uncover statistical discrimination with incorrect beliefs about women's competence as the main mechanism driving party behavior. The quota triggers learning through exposure to competent women. |
| Keywords: | gender quota, political parties, discrimination, biased beliefs, learning |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2029 |
| By: | Abdul Ghofur |
| Keywords: | poverty, waste collectors, vagrants, tactics |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:256 |
| By: | Junjie Li; Yang Liu; Weiqing Liu; Shikai Fang; Lewen Wang; Chang Xu; Jiang Bian |
| Abstract: | Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects. Despite efforts to build real-world simulators, leveraging generative models for virtual worlds, like financial markets, remains underexplored. In financial markets, generative models can simulate market effects of various behaviors, enabling interaction with market scenes and players, and training strategies without financial risk. This simulation relies on the finest structured data in financial market like orders thus building the finest realistic simulation. We propose Large Market Model (LMM), an order-level generative foundation model, for financial market simulation, akin to language modeling in the digital world. Our financial Market Simulation engine (MarS), powered by LMM, addresses the need for realistic, interactive and controllable order generation. Key objectives of this paper include evaluating LMM's scaling law in financial markets, assessing MarS's realism, balancing controlled generation with market impact, and demonstrating MarS's potential applications. We showcase MarS as a forecast tool, detection system, analysis platform, and agent training environment. Our contributions include pioneering a generative model for financial markets, designing MarS to meet domain-specific needs, and demonstrating MarS-based applications' industry potential. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07486 |
| By: | Valentina Sontheim |
| Abstract: | Do detracked classes affect students from different socio-economic backgrounds differently? In the Swiss education system, students are assigned to one of two tracks based on prior achievements at age twelve: approximately 70% are placed in an advanced track and roughly 30% in a basic track. After this assignment, students may either be grouped into classes based on their track or placed in mixed classes with students from both tracks. While tracking is common in many countries, the evidence on its impact remains inconclusive. Understanding this impact is crucial for optimizing school systems to improve students' labor market outcomes later in life. To evaluate the effect of detracked classes, I exploit a unique detracking reform in one Swiss canton, using a difference-in-differences design. This reform, implemented in 2015, changed only how students were grouped into classes, while track assignments remained the same. Before 2015, classes were tracked, meaning they contained only students from either the advanced or basic track. After the reform, classes were detracked, meaning students from both tracks were placed together, while tracks were still assigned. Using individual-level register data for the entire population of Swiss students from 2012 to 2022, I show that the reform dramatically altered class compositions in terms of peers' background characteristics. Since track assignment is correlated with socio-economic background, advanced track students, on average, had for example fewer native speakers in their classes after the reform, and vice versa for basic track students. The likelihood of being assigned to further education, which enables students to pursue tertiary education, increased for the average student due to detracking. My heterogeneity analysis reveals that the overall positive effects were concentrated among socio-economically disadvantaged students. For students whose parents are not tertiary educated and who are not native in the regional language, the probability of further academic education nearly doubled, while more advantaged students did not experience any negative effects. I can rule out changes in curricula, teacher quantity and quality, and motivational factors as mechanisms for these findings, and interpret my main estimates as the causal effects of detracked classes. |
| Keywords: | Education, Inequality, Peer Effects, Detracking |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0229 |
| By: | Manuel González-Astudillo; Juan Guerra-Salas; Avi Lipton |
| Abstract: | We build a small open economy DSGE model to evaluate the macroeconomic e?ects of ?scal consolidations in commodity-exporting countries. The ?scal block includes productive public capital, utility-augmenting government consumption, transfers to hand-to-mouth households, and taxes on labor and capital income as well as consumption. A country risk premium that depends on the level of foreign debt is crucial for the transmission of ?scal policy. This premium in?uences consumption and saving decisions of the ?nancially unconstrained households, and the rest of the economy through general-equilibrium e?ects. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods using data from Ecuador, an economy with a high dependence on oil exports. We then study the macroeconomic e?ects of di?erent tax and expenditure instruments. We consider a full consolidation program following the agreement between Ecuador and the IMF for the 2020-2025 period. The program reduces the country premium, which promotes private investment. Consumption of ?nancially unconstrained households is adversely a?ected by higher labor income taxes, but consumption of hand-to-mouth households increases due to the expansion of government transfers under the program. In aggregate terms, GDP declines by about 1% relative to trend. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1015 |
| By: | Alon-Barkat, Saar; Cavari, Amnon; Svartz, Lior |
| Abstract: | Evidence of partisan bias questions the ability of citizens to form meaningful judgments of the functioning of government and hold the government accountable. Existing work demonstrates that incumbent and opposition supporters consistently diverge in their evaluation of government performance in relation to national economy and security and concerning highly polarized policy issues. We argue that in a polarized environment, partisan bias applies not only to citizens' evaluations of macro-policy outcomes but also of mundane tangible public services, such as education, health, policing, and transportation. We provide rigorous empirical evidence for this hypothesis using the case of Israel during the two dramatic, hyper-polarized government changes in 2021 and 2022. The data include two repeated cross-sectional survey datasets: A large seven-wave survey study and an administrative survey dataset by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics. Our robust findings question the ability of citizens to hold their government accountable for public service performance, a fundamental feature of democratic theory. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:nkez6 |
| By: | Philippe Aghion; Lint Barrage; David Hémous; Ernest Liu |
| Abstract: | We analyze a model of green technological transition along a supply chain. In each layer, a good is produced with a dirty technology, or, if the required “electrification” innovation has occurred, with a clean technology which uses the immediate upstream good. We show that the economy is characterized by a single equilibrium but multiple steady-states, and that even in the presence of Pigouvian environmental taxation, a targeted industrial policy is generally necessary to implement the social optimum. We also show that: (i) small, targeted, industrial policy may bring large welfare gains; (ii) a government which is constrained to focus its subsidies to electrification on one particular sector, should primarily target downstream sectors; (iii) when extending the model so as to allow for supply chains also for the dirty technology, overinvesting in electrication in the wrong upstream branch may derail the overall transition towards electrication downstream. Finally, we illustrate our model with a calibration to decarbonization of global iron and steel production via hydrogen direct reduction, and show that, absent industrial policy, the economy can get stuck in a “wrong” steady-state with CO2 emissions vastly above the social optimum even with a carbon price in place. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:450 |
| By: | Nilsson, Magnus (Magnus Nilsson Produktion) |
| Abstract: | Det svenska medlemskapet i EU innebär att Sverige på många områden har överlåtit lagstiftningsmakten från regering och riksdag till EU – Europaparlamentet, ministerrådet (EU:s regeringar) och kommissionen. I praktiken betyder det att den svenska riksdagen och regeringen inte har full rådighet över all politik som rör Sverige. Men vad händer när EU bestämmer något som inte helt harmonierar med tidigare beslutad svensk politik? Just en sådan situation befinner vi oss i nu. EU har genom reformpaketet Fit for 55 beslutat om nya klimatmål som inte helt överensstämmer med de svenska. EU:s nya klimatpolitik innebär utsläppsminskningar i paritet med Parisavtalet och är nog så ambitiösa som de svenska klimatmålen, men där finns avgörande skillnader i målformuleringarna. Hur ska Sverige göra för att ”rätta in sig i ledet” och samtidigt kunna driva på klimatarbetet? I den här rapporten till ESO beskriver Magnus Nilsson de centrala delarna i EU:s nya klimatlagstiftning, främst unionens tre utsläpps- och inlagringsbudgetar, och jämför dem med de svenska klimatmålen. Slutsatsen är att Sverige måste revidera de nationella klimatmålen, bland annat till följd av att det saknas ett nationellt mål för inlagring av koldioxid i landskapet och träprodukter och att det svenska sektorsmålet för transporter inte bedöms leda till ytterligare utsläppsminskningar. |
| Keywords: | Miljö; Energi; Naturresurser; Hållbar utveckling; Klimatpolitik; Miljömål |
| Date: | 2023–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:esorep:2023_007 |
| By: | Shu Takahashi; Kento Yamamoto; Shumpei Kobayashi; Ryoma Kondo; Ryohei Hisano |
| Abstract: | The prediction of both the existence and weight of network links at future time points is essential as complex networks evolve over time. Traditional methods, such as vector autoregression and factor models, have been applied to small, dense networks, but become computationally impractical for large-scale, sparse, and complex networks. Some machine learning models address dynamic link prediction, but few address the simultaneous prediction of both link presence and weight. Therefore, we introduce a novel model that dynamically predicts link presence and weight by dividing the task into two sub-tasks: predicting remittance ratios and forecasting the total remittance volume. We use a self-attention mechanism that combines temporal-topological neighborhood features to predict remittance ratios and use a separate model to forecast the total remittance volume. We achieve the final prediction by multiplying the outputs of these models. We validated our approach using two real-world datasets: a cryptocurrency network and bank transfer network. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08718 |
| By: | Robert Taylor |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the experimental process and results of SVM, Gradient Boosting, and an Attention-GRU Hybrid model in predicting the Implied Volatility of rolled-over five-year spread contracts of credit default swaps (CDS) on European corporate debt during the quarter following mid-May '24, as represented by the iTraxx/Cboe Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility). The analysis employs a feature matrix inspired by Merton's determinants of default probability. Our comparative assessment aims to identify strengths in SOTA and classical machine learning methods for financial risk prediction |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.15404 |
| By: | Ying Chen; Paul Cheshire; Xiangqing Wang; You-Sin Wang |
| Abstract: | Home delivery reduced the value of cities as locations to access variety in durable consumption goods. Food delivery services (FDS) are doing the same for restaurants. Home-streaming of sports or home-delivered restaurant meals are close but not perfect substitutes for the live experiences. Here we investigate the impact of FDS in Beijing. Employing a Bartik IV strategy, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the number of FDS-accessible restaurants generates a 7.1% increase in property values. The premium is estimated as equivalent to half a top-quality school. FDS appears to be changing how cities deliver welfare from consumption services and so modifies urban land rents and housing attributes. Its value and that of restaurant variety increase with household size but seems to reduce the value of well-equipped kitchens. |
| Keywords: | food delivery services, impact of choice in consumer services, hedonic analysis, changing urban consumption patterns |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2031 |
| By: | Shekhar Aiyar (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Franziska Ohnsorge (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | Geoeconomic fragmentation—the phenomenon of international transactions being increasingly restricted to politically aligned partners—creates risks for individual countries but also opportunities that some hope to seize by becoming “connector†countries. We formalize the concept of connectedness as the property of transacting with international partners drawn from across the ideological spectrum, and explore various policy correlates of connectedness. We show that more open and financially developed countries tend to be the ones that are more connected. Higher tariffs (including those used for industrial policy) are associated with less connectedness. Using a new database of geoeconomic vulnerabilities and geoeconomic connectedness for trade and financial transactions, we document that rising fragmentation since 2016 has been accompanied by broad-based cutbacks in both vulnerability and connectedness, especially in exports and FDI. The largest cutbacks have occurred in countries that were initially the most vulnerable. |
| Keywords: | geoeconomic fragmentation, geopolitics, economic vulnerability, database, trade, international lending, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, BIS-reporting banks. |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F21 F41 F60 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:173 |
| By: | Bouvard, Matthieu; Casamatta, Catherine |
| Abstract: | We study agents that provide Cash-In/Cash-Out (CICO) services to mobile money consumers. A moral hazard friction constrains these agents’ ability to hold liquid reserves, which creates an endogenous cost for operators of ensuring reliable CICO services. Interoperability that allows agents to contract with multiple operators tends to decrease the amount of liquidity held by agents when the moral hazard problem is mild through a higher utilization rate but can increase it when the moral hazard problem is severe. In the latter case, the fees paid by operators to agents become strategic complements sustaining multiple equilibria with different levels of liquidity. Fees from operators to agents tend to be inefficiently low from a welfare perspective, both because operators internalize agents’ agency rents as a cost and because they do not internalize that higher fees, by expanding agents’ capacity to hold liquidity, benefit consumers from other operators. In that context, authorizing interoperability can decrease (when moral hazard is mild) or increase (when moral hazard is severe) welfare. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129703 |
| By: | Blau, Francine D. (Cornell University); Lynch, Lisa M. (Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of what has happened over the past fifty years for women as they worked to break through professional barriers in economics, policy, and institutional leadership. We chart the progress of women in higher education at the college level and beyond and then go on to examine women's representation at the upper levels of academia, government, law, medicine, and management. We begin our description of trends in 1972 when Title IX was enacted, prohibiting sex-based discrimination in federally funded educational programs. The data paint a picture of considerable progress but also persistent inequities. We then go on to consider possible explanations for the continuing gender differences and some of the empirical evidence on the factors identified. |
| Keywords: | labor economics, economics of gender, labor force trends, education, discrimination, women leadership |
| JEL: | J0 J01 J10 J16 J2 J21 J24 J7 J70 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17295 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Following a series of shocks in recent years, Togo continues to face persistent challenges to food security and terrorist attacks, while broader development needs remain acute. Fiscal expansion implemented in response to the shocks has helped preserve robust economic growth but has also pushed up public debt, reversing the debt reduction achieved during the 2017–20 ECF-arrangement, eroding fiscal space and buffers to absorb shocks, and contributing to regional vulnerabilities in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). In response to these challenges, the Fund approved the authorities’ request for a new ECF-arrangement in March 2024. |
| Date: | 2024–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/299 |
| By: | Damien Ackerer; Julien Hugonnier; Urban Jermann |
| Abstract: | Perpetual futures are contracts without expiration date in which the anchoring of the futures price to the spot price is ensured by periodic funding payments from long to short. We derive explicit expressions for the no-arbitrage price of various perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse, and quantos futures in both discrete and continuous-time. In particular, we show that the futures price is given by the risk-neutral expectation of the spot sampled at a random time that reflects the intensity of the price anchoring. Furthermore, we identify funding specifications that guarantee the coincidence of futures and spot prices, and show that for such specifications perpetual futures contracts can be replicated by dynamic trading in primitive securities. |
| JEL: | E12 G13 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32936 |
| By: | Leonardo Gambacorta; Han Qiu; Shuo Shan; Daniel M Rees |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the effects of generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) on labour productivity. In September 2023, Ant Group introduced CodeFuse, a large language model (LLM) designed to assist programmer teams with coding. While one group of programmers used it, other programmer teams were not informed about this LLM. Leveraging this event, we conducted a field experiment on these two groups of programmers. We identified employees who used CodeFuse as the treatment group and paired them with comparable employees in the control group, to assess the impact of AI on their productivity. Our findings indicate that the use of gen AI increased code output by more than 50%. However, productivity gains are statistically significant only among entry-level or junior staff, while the impact on more senior employees is less pronounced. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, productivity, field experiment, big tech |
| JEL: | D22 G31 R30 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1208 |
| By: | Berlinski, Samuel; Gagete-Miranda, Jessica |
| Abstract: | This study examines labor law enforcement spillovers in Brazil's highly informal economy, focusing on disability quota enforcement for formal firms. New inspection procedures increased compliance through heightened inspections and fines, boosting disability hiring. We investigate spillover effects across various firm networks: neighborhood, ownership, and human resources specialists. Results show that spillovers can have up to twice the impact on disability employment compared to direct fines. These findings highlight the potential for targeted enforcement strategies to amplify policy effectiveness beyond directly affected firms even in developing economies characterized by low compliance with employment laws. |
| Keywords: | Enforcement spillovers;Networks;persons with disability;Brazil |
| JEL: | I38 J68 K31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13681 |
| By: | Ziyan Cui; Ning Li; Huaikang Zhou |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly being integrated into scientific research, particularly in the social sciences, where understanding human behavior is critical. Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 have shown promise in replicating human-like responses in various psychological experiments. However, the extent to which LLMs can effectively replace human subjects across diverse experimental contexts remains unclear. Here, we conduct a large-scale study replicating 154 psychological experiments from top social science journals with 618 main effects and 138 interaction effects using GPT-4 as a simulated participant. We find that GPT-4 successfully replicates 76.0 percent of main effects and 47.0 percent of interaction effects observed in the original studies, closely mirroring human responses in both direction and significance. However, only 19.44 percent of GPT-4's replicated confidence intervals contain the original effect sizes, with the majority of replicated effect sizes exceeding the 95 percent confidence interval of the original studies. Additionally, there is a 71.6 percent rate of unexpected significant results where the original studies reported null findings, suggesting potential overestimation or false positives. Our results demonstrate the potential of LLMs as powerful tools in psychological research but also emphasize the need for caution in interpreting AI-driven findings. While LLMs can complement human studies, they cannot yet fully replace the nuanced insights provided by human subjects. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00128 |
| By: | Julien Gosse |
| Abstract: | This thesis investigates the strategic digital transformation of organizations in the broader context of sustainability imperatives. Concretely, it focuses on the following questions: How are digital technologies such as platforms, artificial intelligence, and Internet of Things adopted today? What are the managerial complements needed to derive sustainable value from such technologies, and how are those adopted themselves? Finally, how do digital transformation and sustainability intersect with each other and how can organizations strategically integrate both? Relying on quantitative and qualitative data, this thesis brings empirical and theoretical contributions to both practice and research. Regarding the empirical findings, it documents the adoption of digital technologies and managerial practices, identifying the determinants of their profusion and highlighting, for example, the role played by firms’ size. Furthermore, it shows heterogeneity in the joint presence of digital technologies and specific managerial practices, notably those related to environmental innovation. Building upon these empirical findings and conceptual efforts, this thesis also presents theoretical propositions on the interlinkage between digital transformation, corporate strategy and sustainability. Concretely, it advances organizational and managerial complements needed to derive value from digital technologies today and also suggests an heterogeneous role of such technologies in sustainability transformation. |
| Keywords: | Strategic Management; Digital transformation; Digitalization; Sustainability; Environmental Management |
| Date: | 2024–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/376968 |
| By: | Becker, Sebastian (Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (BMAS), Germany); Gehlen, Annica (DIW Berlin); Geyer, Johannes (DIW Berlin); Haan, Peter (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We provide novel evidence about the incentive and welfare effects of an increase in the generosity of disability benefits. Importantly, a unique policy variation in Germany allows us to isolate the income effect of a change in benefit generosity. We leverage this quasi-experimental policy variation using an RD design to estimate the effect of increasing disability benefits on employment, earnings, labor market transitions, and mortality outcomes using administrative data on the universe of new disability benefit recipients. Contrary to previous literature, our analysis reveals no significant impact on the employment and earnings of DI recipients due to the increased benefits. However, we find a sizable effect of the probability of returning to the labor market. We find no effects on recipient mortality six years after benefit award, but estimates imply a notable reduction in poverty risk, highlighting meaningful welfare implications of increased generosity. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, pension reform, wealth effect, labor supply, mortality, RDD |
| JEL: | H55 I12 J22 J26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17298 |
| By: | Guiteras, Raymond P.; Quistorff, Brian; Kim, Ahnjeong; Shumway, Clayson |
| Abstract: | In this article, we present statacons, an SCons-based build tool for Stata. Because of the integration of Stata and Python in recent versions of Stata, we are able to adapt SCons for Stata workflows without the use of an external shell or extensive configuration. We discuss the usefulness of build tools generally, provide examples of the use of statacons in Stata workflows, present key elements of the syntax of statacons, and discuss extensions, alternatives, and limitations. We provide recommendations for collaborative workflows and, at the end of the article, installation instructions. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nccewp:340058 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the recent evolution of competition in the financial services sector in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), focusing on the rise of Fintechs and the emergence of a pro-competitive regulatory framework. This evolution results from a symbiosis of positive feedback between technology and regulation, which reinforce and balance each other in shaping a new era for the sector in the LAC region. Over the last decade, the financial sector in LAC has undergone profound changes, including the entry of new players, the emergence of new products and the reconfiguration of market boundaries. These developments have led to competitive gains and the provision of better, more accessible, customised and inclusive financial services. Regulatory advances have played a crucial role at various stages of this process, sometimes laying the groundwork, sometimes welcoming and protecting new technologies and models driven by financial digitalisation, and more recently, even leading and fostering disruptive innovations. Open Banking currently stands as a key element of this shared agenda, both regionally and globally, aimed at deepening market transformation towards greater competition, innovation and inclusion. |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaac:313-en |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2024–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/300 |
| By: | Hastuti |
| Keywords: | pendidikan dasar, permasalahan, inovasi, kelembagaan |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:2061 |
| By: | Mariana García-Schmidt |
| Abstract: | Central Bank policy decisions affect the economy not only by influencing market conditions through its market interventions but also by shaping the people’s expectations of economic conditions via the announcement of those decisions. This paper studies how forecasts of inflation and output growth respond to unexpected policy rate decisions using datasets for Brazil and Chile that satisfy three conditions: high enough frequency, short-term horizons, and the same source for the dependent and independent variables. The results show that inflation and output forecasts increase in the short run after an unexpected increase in the policy rate, which supports the existence of an information shock behind the monetary policy decision. These results can be explained by a baseline Neo-Keynesian model only when the interest rate provides information about shocks other than the monetary policy shock. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1017 |
| By: | Görlitz, Katja (Hochschule der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (HdBA)); Heß, Pascal (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Tamm, Marcus (Hochschule der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (HdBA)) |
| Abstract: | This study provides a policy evaluation of laws allowing early school enrollment of children, i.e., enrollment before the official school starting age. It investigates the effects of early enrollment on educational attainment, wages and employment. While the school starting age is usually determined by children's date of birth and legal cutoffs, some German states allowed early enrollment in some years. Exploiting state and cohort variation, the results show that male early enrollees attain fewer years of schooling, enter the labor market earlier and have a larger labor market attachment at around age 16. Positive wage effects persist until approximately age 35. Results for women roughly resemble those for men but they are less convincingly estimated. |
| Keywords: | early enrollment policy, early school entry, wages, employment, school starting age |
| JEL: | I28 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17303 |
| By: | Clasen, Thomas F.; Pillarisetti, Ajay; Gill-Wiehl, Annelise Marie; Kwong, Layla; Daouda, Misbath; Kammen, Daniel M. |
| Abstract: | The use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a World Health Organization (WHO)-designated “clean” fuel, dominates household fuel expansion in low- and middle-income countries. This is due largely to support by the oil and gas industry, government policies, and claims of health and climate benefits over traditional biomass. However, recent randomized controlled trials, though confirming that switching from biomass to LPG cooking reduces exposure to air pollutants, have found little evidence of improved health outcomes. LPG offers reductions in greenhouse gas emissions compared to biomass, but its role as a by-product of fossil fuel production and its increasing use in the fossil fuel supply chain compromises the goal of universal access to sustainable energy. We propose a set of policies that the WHO, governments, funders, researchers, and non-governmental organizations can pursue to promote and assess alternative fuels as part of the continued effort to implement and ensure a clean, healthful, equitable, and sustainable energy future for all. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qu5bd |
| By: | Ed Cornforth; Patricia Sánchez Juanino |
| Abstract: | The National Institute Global Econometric Model (NIGEM) serves globally as a key macroeconomic instrument for economists and policymakers to understand the intricate economic dynamics across countries, with a specific focus on examining scenarios. Within NIGEM, countries can exhibit differences in specification, particularly regarding the labour market, government sector, and components of domestic demand. Models with a complete specification are defined as "full country models, " while those with a more simplified specification are named "reduced country models". In this paper, we analyse how this differentiation impacts NIGEM outputs and identify the primary driving forces in each model type, using as examples the recent expansions of the Malaysian and Romanian models. |
| Keywords: | modelling, macroeconomics |
| JEL: | C51 E37 F47 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:558 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:756 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Amarachi O. Ogbonna (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Mariette C. N. Mete (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The present research extends the extant literature by investigating the hypothesis on whether marriage can be a substitute for financial inclusion in energy poverty reduction in Ghana. Pooled data and two stage least squares techniques are used in the estimation process and the validity of the tested hypothesis (i.e., that marriage is a substitute for financial inclusion in energy poverty mitigation) is based on two main criteria: (i) a positive interactive effect relative to the negative unconditional effect of marriage; (ii) a marriage net effect lower in magnitude compared to the unconditional effect of marriage and (iii) an insignificant interactive effect when both unconditional effects are negative. The investigated hypothesis is not valid in the full sample, urban sub-sample and female sub-sample while it is valid in the rural and male sub-samples. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Energy poverty; financial inclusion; consumption poverty; education; household income |
| JEL: | D03 D12 D14 I32 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:24/007 |
| By: | Abdul Ghofur |
| Keywords: | kemiskinan, pemulung, gelandangan, taktik, manusia gerobak |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:257 |
| By: | Thilo Nils Hendrik Albers (HU Berlin); Felix Kersting (HU Berlin); Monique Reiske (HU Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Using interwar German agriculture as a case, this paper explores the political cost of debt deflation which we characterize with farmers' leverage ratios. Primary deficits drove their increase during 1924-1928, but deflation pushed them to unsustainable levels during 1929-1932. We construct corresponding exogenous county-level exposure measures and show their effect on economic distress as well as political radicalization. Our results suggest that debt deflation increased the Nazi party's rural vote share by over 8 percentage points relative to a counterfactual baseline scenario and was thus a necessary condition for its rural dominance and ascension to parliamentary power. |
| Keywords: | great depression; weimar germany; nsdap; extremism; debt deflation; economic crisis; |
| JEL: | D72 N13 N54 |
| Date: | 2024–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:511 |
| By: | Álvaro González; Carmen López; María José Meléndez |
| Abstract: | This document measures the importance of each bank in the payment system network administrated the Central Bank of Chile (Sistema LBTR), using two indicators of network analysis. The indicators are based on the liquidity and contagion risk concentrated in each participant. During the 10 years of the sample (2012-2022), the importance of each participant has changed, highlighting the evolution of merged banks and some smaller ones. In terms of liquidity provision, there are important participants of the network that are not systemic based on alternative metrics, such as size of total assets. Finally, the document concludes that the 2022 payment network is more resilient than 2012 to individual liquidity shocks, since both indicators decrease their concentration, spreading among more participants. This document contributes to the monitoring of the risks present in the local RTGS system, presenting a methodology to calculate the degree of importance of each participant of the payment network. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1021 |
| By: | Oikawa, Keita; Iwasaki, Fusanori; Ueki, Yasushi; Urata, Shujiro |
| Abstract: | The study conducted a comprehensive examination of the digital divide in the ASEAN region through a large-scale questionnaire survey targeting regional MSMEs. Two types of surveys, web and phone, were employed to capture a diverse range of responses, considering company size, industry, and geographical location. Findings reveal that before COVID, basic digital devices and e-payment systems were widely adopted, even by entry-level firms, while other digital tools saw limited adoption, widening the digital divide. Post-COVID, digitally developed firms accelerated their adoption of digital tools, especially web conferencing and e-commerce, while entry-level firms showed little progress. The study identifies a five-stage progression in digital tool adoption, highlighting the need for tailored support at each stage. Firm attributes significantly influenced adoption: economic development levels positively affected smaller firms, firm size consistently impacted adoption, and rural firms were not disadvantaged. FDI and ownership structure also played crucial roles, with FDI firms adopting a broader range of tools but lagging in advanced tools. Participation in global value chains positively influenced adoption, especially at higher stages. Public and private support benefited digitally developed firms but was less effective for entry-level firms, indicating a need for targeted support mechanisms. The study underscores the connection between digital tool adoption and improved business performance post-COVID, with digitally developed firms experiencing positive growth and entry-level firms showing increased robustness. The findings suggest that policymakers should provide targeted assistance, enhance support access, and address stage-specific challenges to ensure all firms benefit from digital transformation initiatives. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302492 |
| By: | Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Sydney); Tayeb, Haniene (ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course) |
| Abstract: | We examine the correlation in self-control between parents and their young-adult children. Analyzing two decades of population-representative panel data, we exploit variation in the family environment during childhood to investigate how family stress related to: i) parenting responsibilities; ii) parents' relationship quality; iii) household finances; and iv) poor mental health shapes the transmission of self-control across generations. A finite mixture model is used to account for unobserved heterogeneity in young adults' capacity for self-control. Our results indicate that some young people may be particularly sensitive to growing up in a stressful environment, opening the door for family stress to shape the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage through the formation of self-control. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational self-control, Brief Self-Control Scale, finite mixture models |
| JEL: | D91 D10 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17265 |
| By: | Mood, Carina (Institutet för social forskning); Jonsson, Jan O. (Department of Sociology) |
| Abstract: | Unga med utländsk bakgrund är en stor och växande grupp i samhället och gruppens utbildningschanser och skolresultat lyfts ofta fram som avgörande för hur det går för dem senare i livet. En utbredd bild är att många barn och ungdomar med utländsk bakgrund har svårigheter i skolan och att bristande kunskaper i svenska språket försvårar möjligheten att tillgodogöra sig utbildning. Men hur väl stämmer den här bilden? Och skiljer den sig mellan olika grupper, till exempel beroende på vid vilken ålder personen invandrat eller om man är född i Sverige men med invandrade föräldrar? Suddas initiala problem i skolan ut med tiden eller accentueras de? I den här rapporten till ESO analyserar Jan O. Jonsson och Carina Mood hur skolgången ser ut för gruppen; deras utbildningsresultat och den tidiga etableringen på arbetsmarknaden samt olika faktorer som kan vara av betydelse för utfallet. Rapporten bygger i huvudsak på data för en kohort – personer födda 1996 – som författarna följer upp till 25 års ålder. Rapporten visar att det på många sätt går bra i skolan för gruppen, trots de i många fall sämre studieförutsättningarna. De unga har därtill ofta höga ambitioner och ett stort engagemang i skolarbetet. Störst svårigheter är det för de unga som har invandrat relativt sent; i rapporten definierat som vid 9–15 års ålder. Författarna framhåller vikten av att i analys och policy behandla unga med utländsk bakgrund som den heterogena grupp den är för att på så sätt kunna rikta åtgärder till de som löper störst risk för skolmisslyckande. |
| Keywords: | Integration; Migration; Utbildning; Grundskola; Gymnasieskola; Högskola; Invandring; Segregation; |
| Date: | 2023–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:esorep:2023_008 |
| By: | Alec Morton (Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore; Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde); Jamaica Briones (Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore); Anastassia Demeshko (Center for Global Development); Pete Baker (Center for Global Development); Tom Drake (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | As Gavi embarks on its next strategic phase, “Gavi 6.0, ” it faces multiple challenges: shifting donor priorities, rising costs of new vaccines, incomplete vaccine coverage, and economic constraints in supported countries. Additionally, health ministries face increasing pressures related to universal health coverage, complex disease burdens, and fragmented aid systems. This paper proposes that Gavi’s transition approach would benefit from adopting a New Compact underpinned by a marginal aid framework. The New Compact is based on three pillars that reflect a shared responsibility between a country and its donors: (1) evidence-informed, locally led prioritization; (2) domestic-first resource allocation with donor support for marginally cost-effective interventions; and (3) consolidated supplementary aid. We suggest five policy shifts for Gavi to enhance the New Compact’s effectiveness: focusing country financing on high-priority vaccines while using Gavi funds at the margins; ensuring comprehensive coverage for underserved populations; improving donor coordination; adapting pooled procurement; and strengthening market shaping through value-based commitments. We conclude with recommendations for Gavi’s transition, emphasizing the need for strategic dialogue and adaptive policies to align with the New Compact and achieve sustainable vaccination outcomes. |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:338 |
| By: | Sérgio Cruz |
| Abstract: | Discussion on the decoupling between income and energy demand has been sur- ging in the last years with focus on the eects of energy eciency policies, renewable self-consumption and structural economic changes. On the other hand, electrica- tion and declining of shadow economy may be putting inertia to this decoupling. Using a time-varying parameters framework, this paper provides insights on the de- coupling nature between income and electricity demand supplied by the network in Portugal, disaggregated by economic sectors and using regional data between 1995 and 2022. Results suggest a declining, but positive, income elasticity of aggreg- ated electricity demand and in the residential, services and industry sectors. For agriculture there is time invariant decoupling. The results enable to determine the importance of sensitivity analysis for electricity consumption in the context of en- ergy transition, particularly useful for investment decisions in electricity generation and grid planning and development. |
| Keywords: | electricity demand, decoupling, time-varying parameters, sector level data, regional data. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03422024 |
| By: | Musriyadi Nabiu; Hastuti |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:650 |
| By: | Abdel Ghany, Jasmin (University of Oxford); Wilde, Joshua (University of Oxford); Dimitrova, Anna (University of California); Kashyap, Ridhi (University of Oxford); Muttarak, Raya (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | Sex ratios at birth shape populations and are linked to maternal health and gender discrimination. We estimate the effect of prenatal temperature exposure on birth sex by linking data on 5 million births in 33 sub-Saharan African countries and India with high-resolution temperature data. We find that days with a maximum temperature above 20°C reduce male births in both regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, we observe fewer male births after high first trimester temperature exposure, consistent with increased spontaneous abortions from maternal heat stress. By contrast, in India we find second trimester temperature exposure is associated with fewer male births, consistent with reductions in induced sex-selective abortions against girls. These findings demonstrate that climate change harms maternal health, increases prenatal mortality, and reduces engagement with the health system. |
| Keywords: | sex ratios at birth, temperature, prenatal exposure, maternal health, abortion |
| JEL: | J13 J10 I15 I10 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17310 |
| By: | Marta da Paixão Cansado (Universidade Católica Portuguesa (aluna do 3º ano da Licenciatura em Direito)) |
| Abstract: | A utilização da Inteligência Artificial (IA) no setor da saúde promove melhorias significativas na qualidade dos serviços prestados, mas o uso da mesma também suscita inquietações fundadas. No decorrer deste artigo é apresentada uma análise sobre o panorama atual da Inteligência Artificial, no setor da saúde em Portugal, e são expostas soluções que permitem sustentar soluções de política pública para Portugal. O artigo aprofunda os três desafios mais significativos da utilização de IA. Na primeira parte, aborda-se o tema da opacidade destes sistemas (derivada do efeito black box), que poderá pôr em causa um efetivo consentimento informado dos cidadãos. Em seguida, dá-se enfâse à da verificação de enviesamentos e discriminação, por parte dos sistemas. Finalmente, destaca-se a problemática intrínseca à proteção de dados e à privacidade, que adquire particular relevância dada a sensibilidade dos dados envolvidos. Os sistemas de Inteligência Artificial, utilizados no setor da saúde, serão enquadrados à luz do Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act), relevando-se algumas das obrigações estipuladas por este regulamento, recentemente aprovado. Destaca-se a necessidade da obrigação de supervisão humana, avaliando a sua eficácia e aplicabilidade. Como objetivo fundamental, pretende-se analisar os impactos que poderão advir do desenvolvimento e uso da IA neste setor, e como os mesmos poderão ser mitigados através da implementação de medidas regulatórias. Neste sentido, serão analisadas as medidas já tomadas a nível europeu, e serão propostas medidas adicionais, que garantam a salvaguarda dos direitos dos cidadãos. Em última análise, pretende-se delinear um equilíbrio saudável entre a manutenção do incentivo ao desenvolvimento e uso da IA, mais concretamente na área da saúde, e a garantia da segurança destes sistemas. |
| Keywords: | Inteligência Artificial, Artificial Intelligence Act, saúde, proteção de dados, supervisão humana |
| JEL: | I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:187 |
| By: | Dominic Cucic; Denis Gorea |
| Abstract: | We analyze the role of nonbank lenders in the transmission of monetary policy using data on the universe of unsecured credit to firms and households in Denmark. Nonbanks increase their credit supply after a monetary contraction, both relative to banks and in absolute terms. The nonbank credit expansion is driven by long-term debt funding flowing to nonbanks. The attenuation of the traditional bank lending channel of monetary policy has real effects: nonbank credit insulates corporate investment and household consumption from adverse consequences of monetary contractions. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, nonbanks, shadow banks, banks, real effects |
| JEL: | E51 E52 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1211 |
| By: | Goulas, Sofoklis (Brookings Institution); Gunawardena, Bhagya N. (RMIT University); Megalokonomou, Rigissa (Monash University); Zenou, Yves (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Using Greek administrative data, we examine the impact of being randomly assigned to a classroom with a same-gender top-performing student on both short- and long-term educational outcomes. These top performers are tasked with keeping classroom attendance records, which positions them as role models. Both male and female students are influenced by the performance of a same-gender top performer and experience both spillover and conformist effects. However, only female students show significant positive effects from the presence of a same-gender role model. Specifically, female students improved their science test scores by 4 percent of a standard deviation, were 2.5 percentage points more likely to choose a STEM track, and were more likely to apply for and enroll in a STEM university degree 3 years later. These effects were most pronounced in lower-income neighborhoods. Our findings suggest that same-gender peer role models could reduce the underrepresentation of qualified females in STEM fields by approximately 3 percent. We further validate our findings through a lab-in-the-field experiment, in which students rated the perceived influence of randomized hypothetical top-performer profiles. The results suggest that the influence of same-gender top performers is primarily driven by exposure-related factors (increased perception of distinction feasibility and self-confidence) rather than direct interactions. |
| Keywords: | role models, random peer group formation, natural experiment, lab-in-the-field experiment, gender gap, self-confidence, STEM |
| JEL: | J24 J16 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17271 |
| By: | Ventsislavova Georgieva, Daniela |
| Abstract: | Цел на изследването е да се определят основните ползи и рискове за развитие на иновационния потенциал на българските предприятия и региони от участието им в ГВДС. Предходното може да подпомогне разработването на подходящи политики и стратегии за ефективно управление на глобалните вериги за добавяне на стойност и ограничаване на негативните ефекти от потенциални събития с извънреден характер чрез повишаване на иновационния потенциал на микро- и макрониво. Това ще позволи впоследствие да се анализират измеренията на въздействие на глобалните вериги за добавяне на стойност върху конкурентоспособността на регионите, на територията на които са локализирани включените в тях български фирми. Постигането на тази цел ще допринесе за разширяването на научното знание в изследваната област, като може да подкрепи прилагането на стратегическата рамка на страната в областта на интелигентната специализация, икономическата трансформация и дигитализацията на производствените процеси. Обект на изследване в монографията са глобалните верига за добавяне на стойност, разглеждани като система от стопански субекти и процеси, обединени по етапи на добавяне на стойност и разположени на територията на различни национални и регионални икономики. Те са изследвани в контекста на въздействията, които имат върху иновационния потенциал и конкурентоспособност както на предприятията, така на регионите. Предмет на анализ са положителните и отрицателните въздействия, възможностите и рисковете от участие в ГВДС върху иновационното развитие на предприятията и регионите, в които извършват те дейност. Като методологическа основа е използван инструментариум от научноизследователски методи и подходи, в т.ч. методът на ретроспективния анализ, сравнителният метод, методът на анализа и синтеза, диалектическият метод. В подкрепа на избраните методи и за структуриране на целите, задачите и конкретните етапи на анализа са използвани историческият, логическият, комплексният, системният, индуктивният и дедуктивният подходи. За целите на кабинетното проучване е направен преглед на научната литература в областта на глобалните вериги за добавяне на стойност, както и на някои нормативни документи, имащи пряко или косвено отражение върху развитието и управлението на ГВДС. За целите на емпиричното проучване е използван метода Делфи и метода на конкретните ситуации. Представени са и данни от проведено авторово стандартизирано социологическо проучване. Основната изследователска теза е, че глобалните вериги за добавяне на стойност влияят положително върху иновационния потенциал, растежа и конкурентоспособността на предприятията и регионите, в които са позиционирани те. Същевременно обаче крият съществени рискове от зависимост и натиск от страна на водещите по веригата фирми, което в дългосрочен план може да намали добавената стойност на крайния продукт и да изложи иновацията на риск. На тази основа в рамките на настоящия труд са развити следните хипотези: • Иновационният потенциал на глобалните вериги за добавяне на стойност допринася за повишаване на конкурентоспособността на икономиката (национална или регионална). • Участието в глобални верига за добавяне на стойност има положително влияние върху иновационния потенциал на предприятията, в частност за разпространение на технологично ноу-хау и капацитета на местните фирми да го абсорбират и прилагат. В резултат глобалните вериги за добавяне на стойност се превръщат в един от значителните съвременни канали за разпространение на технологично ноу-хау и иновационна култура. • Целенасоченото развитие на иновационния потенциал на глобалните вериги за добавяне на стойност и ясното идентифициране на рисковете и заплахите по веригите може да бъде обект на стратегически решения и по този начин да подкрепи усилията на правителствата при решаването на икономически и социални предизвикателства. • Процесите на дигитализация оказват положително влияние върху иновационния потенциал на глобалните вериги за добавяне на стойност, в частност на разпространението на технологично ноу-хау и капацитета на местните фирми да го абсорбират и прилагат. Същевременно обаче крият рискове от теч на данни и кибератаки. • В контекста на текущата икономическа, социална и геополитическа ситуация в страната ГВДС остават „неразбран“ инструмент за подобряване на иновационния потенциал, изискващ целенасочени дейности по изграждане на знания и компетенции за ползите и възможностите от участие в подобни вериги. |
| Keywords: | Глобални вериги за добавяне на стойност, иновации, предприятия, региони |
| JEL: | O10 O30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122129 |
| By: | Akhmadi; Sri Budiyati |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:649 |
| By: | M. Sulton Mawardi |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:527 |
| By: | Clément Cariou (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Amélie Charles (Audencia Business School, Nantes); Olivier Darné (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop nowcasting models for the Pays-de-la-Loire's jobseekers, a dynamic French regional economy. We ask whether these regional nowcasts are more accurate by only using the regional data or by combining the national and regional data. For this purpose, we use penalized regressions, random forest and dynamic factor models as well as dimension reduction approaches. The best nowcasting performance is provided by the DFM estimated on the regional and regional-national databases as well as the Elastic-Net model with a prior screening step for which the national data are the most frequently selected data. For the latter, it appears that the Change in foreign orders in the industry sector, the OECD Composite leading indicator and the BdF Business sentiment indicator are among the major predictors. |
| Keywords: | Jobseekers nowcasting regional data variable selection penalized regression factor model. JEL Classification: C53 C55 E01 E17 O40, Jobseekers, nowcasting, regional data, variable selection, penalized regression, factor model. JEL Classification: C53, C55, E01, E17, O40 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04675599 |
| By: | Soumil Hooda; Shubham Sharma; Kunal Bansal |
| Abstract: | This technical report presents a stochastic framework for pricing temperature derivatives in Indian markets accounting for both monsoon and winter seasons. Utilising historical temperature and electricity consumption data from 12 Indian states we develop a model based on a modified mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and employ Monte Carlo simulations for pricing. Our analysis reveals significant variations in option pricing across states with monsoon call options ranging from 10.78 USD to 182.82 USD and winter put options from 48.65 USD to 194.99 USD. The introduction of a risk aversion parameter shows substantial impacts on pricing leading to an increase of up to 416 percentage in option prices for certain states. Sensitivity analyses indicate that option prices are more responsive to changes in volatility than to mean reversion rates. Additionally extreme weather scenarios can shift option prices by up to 409 percentage during heatwaves and decrease by 60 percentage during cold waves. These findings emphasise the importance of state-specific and season-specific approaches in temperature derivative pricing highlighting the need for tailored risk management strategies in India's diverse climate. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.04541 |
| By: | GAVIGAN James (European Commission - JRC); FAKO Peter (European Commission - JRC); COMPANO Ramon (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing transformation of the automotive sector is in part driven by factors such as the unrelenting onslaught of electric/hybrid powertrain technologies, in-vehicle and networked software applications, rising demand for electric vehicles, and the emergence of new entrants like Tesla and others notably in China. The response of automotive firms to these challenges includes, inter alia, Open Innovation (OI) tools and strategies of which Corporate Venture Capital (CVC) is one element. CVC investments by large automotive companies are globally spread, but there is a clear concentration of these investments in the US, particularly in California. The vast majority of CVC investments in startups are made in conjunction with other co-investors, reflecting the high-risk nature of the innovative technologies being developed. Newcomers to the automotive industry, such as Tesla and BYD, are primarily beneficiaries of venture capital financing, including corporate VC, rather than themselves engaging in venture financing. Despite a drop in CVC in 2023, the rising trend in automotive CVC may return over the medium to long term, driven by increasing startup activity in automotive-relevant areas. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:202402 |
| By: | Niikura, Junki |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of telework on social capital in the workplace in Japan. Telework1 has gained popularity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a survey2 conducted by the research firm Persol, the teleworking rate was 25.6% as of July 13 to 18, 2022. Thus, roughly one in four workers in Japan is teleworking. In addition, the government is promoting the use of telework as a flexible work style. While telework is encouraged as a flexible way of working, the rate of telework implementation has not increased with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. One reason for this may be reflected in the results of a survey of attitudes toward telework, where both advantages and disadvantages were mentioned, with lack of communication cited as a top concern by both workers and management. According to a survey3 conducted by the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (JTUC) from June 5 to 9, 2020, 37.6% of teleworkers cited "lack of communication with superiors and colleagues" as a disadvantage4. In addition, according to the "Questionnaire on the Merits and Demerits Felt by Companies in Telework5" conducted by Teikoku Databank, Ltd., from February 4 to 8, 2022, 26.6% of companies cited "reduced internal communication and difficulty in communication" as a demerit of telework. The most frequently cited disadvantages of telework are those related to communication. Communication concerns in telework arise because the amount of information available is less than that available in person and because a method of communication must be adapted. Given that communication is the foundation of trust, this study questions whether such decreased information during the communication process fundamentally affects the social capital of coworkers in the workplace. In this paper, we hypothesize that a lack of communication undermines social capital in the workplace. To examine the above hypothesis, this study compares the social capital of teleworkers and nonteleworkers. Specifically, an internet survey ("Telework and Corporate Social Capital Survey") is conducted to ask teleworkers and nonteleworkers about their respective internal trust relationships. Based on the responses, a social capital variable is then created and compared to determine whether teleworkers' social capital is lower than that of nonteleworkers. The next section summarizes previous research on the relationship between telework and social capital. |
| Keywords: | Telework, Social Capital, Japan |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302490 |
| By: | Andrew B. Abel; Stavros Panageas |
| Abstract: | We characterize a planner's optimal allocation of consumption and capital in an overlapping generations model with exogenous government purchases, privately-observed idiosyncratic shocks to the depreciation rate of capital, and a proportional cost of reversing investment to transform used capital to consumption. We show how a package of various taxes and government bonds can finance government purchases and support the same balanced growth path as in the planner's optimum. The optimal tax rate on capital income implements the planner's optimal (but incomplete) sharing of idiosyncratic depreciation risks, while respecting the private nature of these risks. |
| JEL: | E6 H2 H6 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32961 |
| By: | Solomon Tessema Memirie (Addis Center for Ethics and Priority Setting, Addis Ababa University); Anastassia Demeshko (Center for Global Development); Mizan Habtemichael (Addis Center for Ethics and Priority Setting, Addis Ababa University); Tesfaye Mesele (Strategic Affairs Office, Federal Ministry of Health – Ethiopia); Amanuel Haileselassie (Strategic Affairs Office, Federal Ministry of Health – Ethiopia); Pete Baker (Center for Global Development); Ole F. Norheim (Bergen Center for Ethics and Priority Setting, University of Bergen); Tom Drake (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Recent years have seen health aid play a crucial role in improving health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries, though challenges remain in optimizing the allocation and impact of these resources. We propose a framework for global health financing that advocates for aid to complement domestic resources by funding high-value interventions, enabling governments to focus on essential services. A case study in Ethiopia explored the implications of this “New Compact” approach, analyzing Ethiopia’s essential health services package and prioritizing interventions based on cost-effectiveness. By applying different financing scenarios, the study found that current health financing practices in Ethiopia are inefficient, failing to align resources with the most cost-effective interventions, thereby undermining goals for equitable health service delivery and Universal Health Coverage (UHC). The study suggests that adopting the full New Compact approach, where the Ethiopian government finances top priority health interventions while donor aid extends coverage to additional high-value services, could significantly enhance health outcomes, potentially increasing healthy life years (HLYs) by 15 percent. However, full implementation faces practical challenges, leading to the development of a partial New Compact scenario. This more realistic model retains most of the health gains by allowing some donors to adopt the new financing strategy while others maintain existing commitments, showing that even incremental shifts toward this approach can yield substantial benefits. The study emphasizes the importance of aligning donor aid with country priorities and demonstrates that even partial realignment can drive significant improvements in health service delivery and outcomes, ultimately leading to a more sustainable and resilient health financing system. |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:337 |
| By: | Mohamed Ben Alaya; Ahmed Kebaier; Djibril Sarr |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily addresses two gaps in the literature. The first is the lack of credit spread models founded on a stochastic basis that enables continuous modeling, as many existing models rely on factorial assumptions. The second is the limited availability of models that directly yield a term structure of credit spreads. An intermediate result of our model is the provision of a term structure for the prices of defaultable bonds. We present the model alongside an innovative, practical, and conservative calibration approach that minimizes the error between historical and theoretical volatilities of default intensities. We demonstrate the robustness of both the model and its calibration process by comparing its behavior to historical credit spread values. Our findings indicate that the model not only produces realistic credit spread term structure curves but also exhibits consistent diffusion over time. Additionally, the model accurately fits the initial term structure of implied survival probabilities and provides an analytical expression for the credit spread of any given maturity at any future time. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.09179 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Ketimpangan, tenaga kerja indonesia (TKI), pekerja migran, ketahanan pangan, gizi |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:1474 |
| By: | Sanglin Zhao; Hao Deng; Bingkun Yuan |
| Abstract: | China accounts for one-third of the world's total carbon emissions. How to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 to ensure the effective realization of the "dual-carbon" target is an important policy orientation at present. Based on the provincial panel data of ARIMA-BP model, this paper shows that the effect of energy consumption intensity effect is the main factor driving the growth of carbon emissions, per capita GDP and energy consumption structure effect are the main factors to inhibit carbon emissions, and the effect of industrial structure and population size effect is relatively small. Based on the research conclusion, the policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of energy structure, industrial structure, new quality productivity and digital economy. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00039 |
| By: | Palmira Permata Bachtiar |
| Keywords: | pekerja migran, ketenagakerjaan di luar negeri, PPTKIS |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3510 |
| By: | M. Sulton Mawardi |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3708 |
| By: | Palmira Permata Bachtiar |
| Keywords: | migrasi ke luar negeri, tata kelola, desentralisasi |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3493 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | pelayanan publik, otonomi daerah, dana alokasi umum (DAU), Pekerja anak, krisis ekonomi |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:761 |
| By: | Alrababah, Ala; Marble, William; Mousa, Salma; Siegel, Alexandra Arons (University of Colorado Boulder) |
| Abstract: | Positive intergroup contact has been shown to improve attitudes toward stigmatized minorities. A concern with the contact paradigm is that it may place unreasonable demands on minorities to be high-performers. Are minorities judged more harshly for under-achieving relative to the majority group? Conversely, are minorities more readily rewarded for their success? We use evidence from English top-tier soccer to answer these questions. We measure how journalists and fans react to players’ performances, using objective measures of performance. We find little evidence of discrimination based on nationality and ethnicity. These results are consistent across three diverse datasets consisting of millions of social media posts, hundreds of thousands of newspaper articles, and tens of thousands of Fantasy Premier League transfers. The discrimination we do uncover — when players perform extremely poorly — is small in magnitude, and often runs counter to the expected direction. Journalists and fans punish poor performances, but not differentially so based on player identity. The results suggest that minorities need not uphold ‘model minority’ myths in order to be accepted. |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7d2cu |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Gordon B. Dahl; Dan-Olof Rooth |
| Abstract: | There has been a dramatic rise in disability employment in the US since the pandemic, a pattern mirrored in other countries as well. A similar increase is not found for any other major gender, race, age or education demographic. At the same time, work from home has risen four-fold. This paper asks whether the two are causally related. Analyzing CPS and ACS microdata, we find the increase in disability employment is concentrated in occupations with high levels of working from home. Controlling for compositional changes and labor market tightness, we estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in work from home increases full-time employment by 1.1% for individuals with a physical disability. A back of the envelope calculation reveals that the post pandemic increase in working from home explains 80% of the rise in full-time employment. Wage data suggests that WFH increased the supply of workers with a disability, likely by reducing commuting costs and enabling better control of working conditions. |
| JEL: | J14 J20 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32943 |
| By: | Vita Febriany; Edy Priyono |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3492 |
| By: | Zhan Gao; Ji Hyung Lee; Ziwei Mei; Zhentao Shi |
| Abstract: | LASSO introduces shrinkage bias into estimated coefficients, which can adversely affect the desirable asymptotic normality and invalidate the standard inferential procedure based on the $t$-statistic. The desparsified LASSO has emerged as a well-known remedy for this issue. In the context of high dimensional predictive regression, the desparsified LASSO faces an additional challenge: the Stambaugh bias arising from nonstationary regressors. To restore the standard inferential procedure, we propose a novel estimator called IVX-desparsified LASSO (XDlasso). XDlasso eliminates the shrinkage bias and the Stambaugh bias simultaneously and does not require prior knowledge about the identities of nonstationary and stationary regressors. We establish the asymptotic properties of XDlasso for hypothesis testing, and our theoretical findings are supported by Monte Carlo simulations. Applying our method to real-world applications from the FRED-MD database -- which includes a rich set of control variables -- we investigate two important empirical questions: (i) the predictability of the U.S. stock returns based on the earnings-price ratio, and (ii) the predictability of the U.S. inflation using the unemployment rate. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.10030 |
| By: | Giovanni Bernardo; Pasquale Commendatore; Giovanni Fosco |
| Abstract: | People move for various reasons, including economic, social, political, demographic, and environmental factors. Environmental quality, in particular, plays a crucial role in migration decisions. This study examines the relationship between air pollution (measured as the maximum number of days in which at least one monitoring station detects an excess of 50 µg/m3 of PM10 above the established limit) and internal migration in Italy. Employing a difference-in-differences (diff-in-diff) strategy, our analysis reveals a negative relationship between air pollution and internal migration. We exploit two major legislative interventions in environmental regulation — LD 152/2006 and LD 155/2010 — as exogenous shocks affecting air pollution. We find that these environmental regulations significantly reduced the number of pollution exceeding days in municipal areas, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of those areas more committed to reducing urban emissions. Specifically, the combined effect of the two decrees led to an increase of approximately three new citizens per 1, 000 inhabitants in the more committed areas, highlighting the importance of proactive environmental policies in influencing migration patterns and improving urban livability. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, Migration, Environmental policy |
| JEL: | O15 Q53 Q56 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/312 |
| By: | Pamadi Wibowo; Wawan Munawar |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:651 |
| By: | Frank, Luis |
| Abstract: | The paper decomposes prices and exchange rate in the supply and demand functions of exports and imports of goods, respectively, in order to assess the impact of a devaluation on Argentina's foreign trade. The results show that, due to Argentina's particular productive structure, the impact of a devaluation on exports is practically neutral, while the impact on imports results mainly in a drop in the renewal and maintenance of capital goods. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate, devaluation, Argentina |
| JEL: | C51 |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121981 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Bhutan achieved significant improvements in social conditions during the last decade, raising living standards. Poverty and inequality have declined, while extreme poverty has been eliminated. However, the pandemic hindered economic development, and external shocks and domestic policies have prevented a more robust recovery and resulted in large external imbalances leading to a sharp decline in reserves and placing pressure on the exchange rate peg. |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/298 |
| By: | Bill Martin |
| Abstract: | Ten years ago, Britain’s main statistics agency revised the figures describing the history of the nation’s capital investment with results that, before 1997 and for many decades after the second world war, lack a coherent rationale and look wrong. The impact is still embedded in today’s official national accounts. The effects of the revision can be seen, for example, in an implausible uplift to Britain’s investment and growth record in the 1950s, the shifted scale and timing of the Barber Boom and Bust in the first half of the 1970s and in the improbable erasure of the post-war, thirty-year decline in company profit share. A deep investigation of the official figures is attempted and estimates made, but the task is hampered by incomplete documentation. It is regrettable that the Office for National Statistics decided some time ago not to correct the suspect capital investment figures. Those wishing to draw lessons from Britain’s economic past are advised not to rely on the ‘historic’ national accounts. |
| Keywords: | National accounts, capital investment, UK post-war economic history, R&D |
| JEL: | C82 E01 N1 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp541 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Laporan tahunan |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:2870 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | kemiskinan kronis, iklim usaha, regulasi usaha, pendidikan, kesehatan, bantuan langsung tunai (BLT) |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:747 |
| By: | Francisco Pinto-Avalos; Michael Bowe; Stuart Hyde |
| Abstract: | Pension fund asset allocation in many countries has become increasingly influenced by financial advisory firms, whose recommendations often elicit a large, coordinated portfolio reallocation of pension fund holdings across asset classes. Using a proprietary database, we analyse if porfolio asset reallocations in the Chilean pension fund industry act as a mechanism for exerting and enhanced volatility in the nominal exchange rate surrounding pension fund transactions initiated by pension pressures in the Chilean peso FOREX market. We document significant price pressure and enhanced volatility investors following financial advisory firm recommendations. We provide evidence that certain institutions participating in the FOREX market may seek to exploit the anticipated portfolio adjustments following such recommendations by front-running pension fund trades. The potential for financial asset market volatility and market instability this activity creates has regulatory and policy implications. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1020 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/302 |
| By: | Auriol, Emmanuelle; Gonzalez Fanfalone, Alexia |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how Mobile Network Operator (MNO) impacts traditional banks’ coverage decision in a model of vertical and horizontal differentiation with asymmetric transportation costs. The competitive pressure triggered by MNOs entry on traditional banking sector leads to prices decrease and broadens financial inclusion as the traditional banking sector expands its network in response to the entry of MNOs. The model’s predictions are checked against data from Kenya, where mobile banking has been most successful. Results from the econometric model for the period 2000-2011, suggest that, roughly, for each 7 new mobile agents in a sub-locality, one new bank branch opened. |
| Keywords: | Financial inclusion; Regulation; Mobile banking; Development |
| JEL: | G18 L51 L88 L96 O16 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129721 |
| By: | Hastuti; Akhmadi |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:633 |
| By: | Guannan Miao; Fons Strik |
| Abstract: | The new way of looking at international trade not by measuring the face value of a product but by where the production takes place has changed the way we understand international trade. It also changes the way we assess how sophisticated a countrys export basket is. This paper uses the latest OECD Trade in Value Added database to re-evaluate cross-country export sophistication as defined in Hausmann et al. (2007). It finds that the gap between the export sophistication of high-income and low-income countries is wider from a value-added perspective. The global financial crisis (GFC) marked a fundamental shift in the ability of low-income countries to catch up: before the GFC, the export sophistication gap between high-income and low-income countries narrowed, but after the GFC export sophistication in high-income countries outgrew export sophistication in low-income countries. A decomposition analysis shows that these trends are underpinned by the basket effect, which measures the extent to which changes in a countrys export sophistication are caused by changes in its own export basket. The paper also finds that higher export sophistication positively affects future economic growth, even more so when measuring export sophistication from a value-added perspective. In the early 2000s, South Africa performed relatively well in value-added export sophistication but started to lag behind its peers after the GFC, with the basket effect dragging on export sophistication growth. Nevertheless, South Africa's key strategic industries, such as motor vehicles and chemicals, appear relatively sophisticated. |
| Date: | 2024–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11066 |
| By: | Lydia Cox; Jiacheng Feng; Gernot Müller; Ernesto Pastén; Raphael Schoenle; Michael Weber |
| Abstract: | The jointly optimal monetary and fiscal policy mix in a multi-sector New Keynesian model with sectoral government spending and productivity shocks entails a separation of roles: Sectoral government spending optimally adjusts to sectoral output gaps and inflation rates---a policy supported by evidence from sectoral federal procurement data. Monetary policy optimally focuses on aggregate stabilization, but deviates from a zero-inflation target; in a model calibration to the U.S., however, it effectively approximates a zero-inflation target. Because monetary policy is a blunt instrument and government spending trades off stabilization against the optimal-level public good provision, the first best is not achieved. |
| JEL: | E32 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32914 |
| By: | Benalia Fatiha (University of Algiers 3 : Université d' Alger 3) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to show the importance of the for the industrial revolution and the fondamental technologies used during the developments of the global economy and the importance of the supply chains to improve the performance economic system which can' t be achieved without cooperation and good coordination between these practices , which form an interconnected chain or which is called supply chain . the latter represents a network of institutions linked by common interests facilitate flowing information on and funds that are closely linked to each other.With the new trend in manufacturing, technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, Internet of Things, automation and sensors are changing the way companies manufacture, maintain and distribute new products and services, demonstrating the importance of the integrated relationship between these technologies and supply chains. |
| Keywords: | the fourth industrial revolution digital technologies supply chains JEL Classification Codes: L16 L52 O31 O32 Q11 Q55 R31, the fourth industrial revolution, digital technologies, supply chains JEL Classification Codes: L16, L52, O31, O32, Q11, Q55, R31 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684568 |
| By: | Zian Wang; Xinyi Lu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the forecasting performance of COMEX copper futures realized volatility across various high-frequency intervals using both econometric volatility models and deep learning recurrent neural network models. The econometric models considered are GARCH and HAR, while the deep learning models include RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), and GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit). In forecasting daily realized volatility for COMEX copper futures with a rolling window approach, the econometric models, particularly HAR, outperform recurrent neural networks overall, with HAR achieving the lowest QLIKE loss function value. However, when the data is replaced with hourly high-frequency realized volatility, the deep learning models outperform the GARCH model, and HAR attains a comparable QLIKE loss function value. Despite the black-box nature of machine learning models, the deep learning models demonstrate superior forecasting performance, surpassing the fixed QLIKE value of HAR in the experiment. Moreover, as the forecast horizon extends for daily realized volatility, deep learning models gradually close the performance gap with the GARCH model in certain loss function metrics. Nonetheless, HAR remains the most effective model overall for daily realized volatility forecasting in copper futures. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08356 |
| By: | Damane, Moeti |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the differential impacts of business and household credit on Lesotho’s economic performance using simultaneous quantile regression analysis. The results indicate that business credit significantly boosts real GDP, particularly at lower quantiles, while household credit consistently exerts a negative influence across all quantiles. These findings are corroborated by OLS regression and robustness checks using the novel method of moments quantile regression model. The study advocates for policies that enhance business credit access, regulate household credit, maintain robust financial regulation, promote economic diversification, and support balanced financial practices through financial literacy programs. Such measures are essential for leveraging the positive effects of business credit on economic growth and mitigating the adverse impacts of household credit, thereby fostering sustainable development in Lesotho |
| Keywords: | Credit Allocation, Economic Performance, Quantile Regression, Household Credit, Business Credit |
| JEL: | C21 G1 G28 O16 |
| Date: | 2024–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121954 |
| By: | Sudarno Sumarto; Sri Kusumastuti Rahayu |
| Keywords: | hubungan industri |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3473 |
| By: | Timothy Riffe (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Rustam Tursun-Zade (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Sergi Trias Llimós (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Keywords: | Spain, mathematical demography, mortality, population composition |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-029 |
| By: | Keyon Vafa; Susan Athey; David M. Blei |
| Abstract: | One thread of empirical work in social science focuses on decomposing group differences in outcomes into unexplained components and components explained by observable factors. In this paper, we study gender wage decompositions, which require estimating the portion of the gender wage gap explained by career histories of workers. Classical methods for decomposing the wage gap employ simple predictive models of wages which condition on a small set of simple summaries of labor history. The problem is that these predictive models cannot take advantage of the full complexity of a worker's history, and the resulting decompositions thus suffer from omitted variable bias (OVB), where covariates that are correlated with both gender and wages are not included in the model. Here we explore an alternative methodology for wage gap decomposition that employs powerful foundation models, such as large language models, as the predictive engine. Foundation models excel at making accurate predictions from complex, high-dimensional inputs. We use a custom-built foundation model, designed to predict wages from full labor histories, to decompose the gender wage gap. We prove that the way such models are usually trained might still lead to OVB, but develop fine-tuning algorithms that empirically mitigate this issue. Our model captures a richer representation of career history than simple models and predicts wages more accurately. In detail, we first provide a novel set of conditions under which an estimator of the wage gap based on a fine-tuned foundation model is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent. Building on the theory, we then propose methods for fine-tuning foundation models that minimize OVB. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that history explains more of the gender wage gap than standard econometric models can measure, and we identify elements of history that are important for reducing OVB. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.09894 |
| By: | Hernández de Rojas, Félix; Pita, Pilar Rodríguez; Pérez Martínez, Jorge Emiliano |
| Abstract: | Lately, we have seen a growing concern for competitiveness, strategic autonomy, and the rising of digital divide in the European Digital Single Market. To tackle these issues, in 2023 the EU1 set forth the Digital Decade program that "empowers businesses and people in a human-centred, sustainable and more prosperous digital future"2, with the aim of attracting investment and creating an innovative and digital ecosystem "made in Europe". However, Europe faces a set of barriers that arise from the cultural, linguistic, and societal differences that exist between the Member States and that do not exist in other largely populated countries in Asia or America. Throughout our research, we have clustered the 240 NUTS2 regions of the EU by their digitalisation, based on the Digital Economy and Society Index, and their competitiviness, based on the EU Regional Competitiviness Index, and their respective variables. we have made use of the Moran's I and Geary's C that allows us to determine the degree of clustering of EU regions and giving us a hint on which regions are more susceptible to "digital contagion", and which regions are most likely of be left behind because of lack of this phenomena. Our research identifies the above aspects and analyzes them within the heterogeneity of digitalization situations in the regions, identifying those where this "digital contagion" or "spatial spillover" works satisfactorily and where it does not, as well as considering whether national or EU policies are relevant to this end. |
| Keywords: | Digital Contagion, Spatial Autocorrelation, NUTS2, European Union, Competitivity |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302495 |
| By: | Léonard Moulin; Valeria Maria Urbano |
| Abstract: | Congestion pricing, also referred to as road pricing, is a form of Pigouvian taxation designed to limit or reduce vehicular traffic within a specific area. These systems aim to encourage changes in driving behavior and the choice of transportation mode. An example of a congestion pricing system is the Milan Area C charging zone, which operates on a fixed-rate basis. In recent years, two modifications to the restrictions have been introduced: i) limitations on vehicle types allowed to enter the zone, and ii) a 50 percent increase in congestion charges. By using open data from Area C vehicle access and mobile phone data on overall presence in the area, this study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of these two restriction policies within the AREA C congestion policy. The findings indicate that both restrictions influenced the choice of transportation mode, with vehicle type limitations having a greater impact than price increases. This evidence showing the effectiveness of vehicle type restrictions and increased charges could support the enhancement of pricing policies and vehicle limitations in Milan and similar cities. Moreover, demographic factors, including the proportion of women and elderly people in the area, significantly influence transportation choices, underscoring the importance of equitable policy implementation to enhance acceptance and effectiveness among more vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | congestion charge, road pricing, mobile phone data, traffic congestion, transport, behavior, Milano, Italy, COLLECTE DES DONNEES / DATA COLLECTION, CIRCULATION URBAINE / URBAN TRAFFIC, COMPORTEMENT / BEHAVIOUR, ITALIE / ITALY, TRANSPORT / TRANSPORT |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:ow6aajiba-ruexq09xdg |
| By: | Gary Richardson; Marco Del Angel |
| Abstract: | Which firms relied on commercial banks for credit and which firms did not at the onset of the Great Depression would seem to be an important question given the vast literature discussing banking distress in the United States during the 1930s. The question, however, has not been answered. This essay addresses that issue by analyzing data from an Internal Revenue Service publication, Statistics of Income. The hitherto unexplored data reveals that small firms in all industries borrowed heavily from commercial banks and relied on them for credit necessary to fund ongoing operations. The largest firms in most sectors deposited more in banks than they borrowed from them. Sectors whose firms depended most on commercial banks for credit were wholesaling, retailing, services, and the processing of agricultural products. In contrast, nearly half of economic activity in mining and construction, the majority of output in manufacturing, and the preponderance of firms in transportation operated independent of commercial banks |
| JEL: | E01 E44 N1 N12 N22 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32918 |
| By: | Otsu, Taisuke; Tanaka, Shiori |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an empirical likelihood inference method for the Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions. In contrast to the conventional Wald statistic using the delta method, our approach circumvents the linearization errors and estimation of the variance terms. Furthermore, the shape of the resulting empirical likelihood confidence set is determined flexibly by data. Simulation results illustrate usefulness of the proposed inference method. |
| Keywords: | empirical likelihood; Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition; two-sample test |
| JEL: | C14 |
| Date: | 2022–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115982 |
| By: | Strezhnev, Anton |
| Abstract: | Differences-in-differences designs for estimating causal effects rely on an assumption of ``parallel trends" -- that in the absence of the intervention, treated units would have followed the same outcome trajectory as observed in control units. When parallel trends fails, researchers often turn to alternative strategies that relax this identifying assumption. One popular approach is the inclusion of a group-specific linear time trend in the commonly used two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimator. In a setting with a single post-treatment and two pre-treatment periods it is well known that this is equivalent to a non-parametric ``triple-differences" estimator which is valid under a ``parallel trends-in-trends" assumption (Egami and Yamauchi, 2023). This paper analyzes the TWFE estimator with group-specific linear time trends in the more general setting with many pre- and post-treatment periods. It shows that this estimator can be interpreted as an average over triple-differences terms involving both pre-treatment and post-treatment observations. As a consequence, this estimator does not identify a convex average of post-treatment ATTs without additional effect homogeneity assumptions even when there is no staggering in treatment adoption. A straightforward solution is to make the TWFE specification fully dynamic with a separate parameter for each relative treatment time. However, identification requires that researchers omit at least two pre-treatment relative treatment time indicators to estimate a group-specific linear trend. The paper shows how to properly extend this estimator to the staggered adoption setting using the approach of Sun and Abraham (2021), correcting a perfect collinearity error in recent implementations of this method in Hassell and Holbein (2024). It concludes with a note of caution for researchers, showing through a replication of Kogan (2021) how inferences from group-specific time trend specifications can be extremely sensitive to arbitrary specification choices when parallel trends violations are present but do not follow an easily observed functional form. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dg5ps |
| By: | Benison Thomas (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Trinh Le (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Home equity release refers to financial products that allow people to access the equity that is tied up in their own homes. Home equity is a large part of household wealth in New Zealand, making it an important asset that could potentially be used to fund retirement. However, the take-up of equity release products such as reverse mortgages is very low. This research examines whether home equity release schemes currently available in the New Zealand market provide value for money and how they might provide a suitable form of retirement income for some people. The available data confirm the existence of many households with low retirement income and high housing wealth, highlighting those who stand to potentially gain from home equity release. Assessments of the features and costs of current home release schemes, alongside worked examples using realistic values, highlight the scenarios when home equity release may (or may not) be beneficial. Depending on current circumstances and future financial needs, home equity release may be a suitable form of retirement income for some retirees but not for others. |
| Keywords: | Home equity release; reverse mortgage; wealth decumulation; retirement |
| JEL: | J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:24_03 |
| By: | Ilzetzki, Ethan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how firms adapt to demand shocks when facing capacity constraints. I show that increases in government purchases raise total factor productivity in quantity units at the production-line level. Productivity gains are concentrated in plants facing tighter capacity constraints, a phenomenon I call “learning by necessity”. Evidence is based on newly digitized archival data on USWorldWar II aircraft production. Shifts in demand across aircraft with different strategic roles provide an instrument for aircraft demand. I show that plants adapted to surging demand by improving production methods, outsourcing, and combating absenteeism, primarily when facing tighter capacity constraints. |
| JEL: | D20 D24 E62 L93 N12 N42 N62 |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124150 |
| By: | Mohit Apte; Yashodhara Haribhakta |
| Abstract: | In the rapidly evolving field of financial forecasting, the application of neural networks presents a compelling advancement over traditional statistical models. This research paper explores the effectiveness of two specific neural forecasting models, N-HiTS and N-BEATS, in predicting financial market trends. Through a systematic comparison with conventional models, this study demonstrates the superior predictive capabilities of neural approaches, particularly in handling the non-linear dynamics and complex patterns inherent in financial time series data. The results indicate that N-HiTS and N-BEATS not only enhance the accuracy of forecasts but also boost the robustness and adaptability of financial predictions, offering substantial advantages in environments that require real-time decision-making. The paper concludes with insights into the practical implications of neural forecasting in financial markets and recommendations for future research directions. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00480 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (Warwick University and University of Bonn); Palmou, Christina (Office for National Statistics (ONS)); Schneebacher, Jakob (Competition and Markets Authority (CMA)) |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, firms pass on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use kmeans clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| Keywords: | energy price shock ; firm dynamics ; climate change ; high-dimensional analysis JEL Codes: D22 ; D24 ; H23 ; L11 ; O30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1517 |
| By: | Pamadi Wibowo; Wawan Munawar |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:571 |
| By: | Rafael Guerra; Steven Kamin; John Kearns; Christian Upper; Aatman Vakil |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates empirical Taylor rules to analyze the recent monetary policy of the five main Latin American inflation-targeting central banks. We find that during the inflationary surge of 2021–23, monetary policy reacted more strongly and more quickly to changes in inflation than predicted by a standard linear Taylor rule, estimated on data from the pre-pandemic period. Although this appears to represent a shift in the monetary reaction function, we think it more likely that Latin American central banks have been following a non-linear strategy, responding more aggressively to inflation, the higher it rose. We confirmed this by adding the square of inflation to the Taylor rule model: its coefficient was positive and significant, indicating that policy interest rates exhibited a non-linear response to inflation, even during the pre-pandemic period, and the model did a better job of predicting the sharp rise in interest rates during 2021–23. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, central banks, monetary policy, Covid-19, interest rates |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E50 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1209 |
| By: | Yifan Jia; Yanbin Wang; Jianguo Sun; Yiwei Liu; Zhang Sheng; Ye Tian |
| Abstract: | Ethereum faces growing fraud threats. Current fraud detection methods, whether employing graph neural networks or sequence models, fail to consider the semantic information and similarity patterns within transactions. Moreover, these approaches do not leverage the potential synergistic benefits of combining both types of models. To address these challenges, we propose TLMG4Eth that combines a transaction language model with graph-based methods to capture semantic, similarity, and structural features of transaction data in Ethereum. We first propose a transaction language model that converts numerical transaction data into meaningful transaction sentences, enabling the model to learn explicit transaction semantics. Then, we propose a transaction attribute similarity graph to learn transaction similarity information, enabling us to capture intuitive insights into transaction anomalies. Additionally, we construct an account interaction graph to capture the structural information of the account transaction network. We employ a deep multi-head attention network to fuse transaction semantic and similarity embeddings, and ultimately propose a joint training approach for the multi-head attention network and the account interaction graph to obtain the synergistic benefits of both. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07494 |
| By: | Jakree Koosakul; Ms. Longmei Zhang; Maryam Zia |
| Abstract: | After decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing a growing risk of geoeconomic fragmentation, with potentially far-reaching implications for the global economy and the international monetary system. Against this background, this paper studies how geopolitical proximity, along with other economic factors, affects the usage of five SDR currencies in cross-border transactions. Since World War II, the global currency landscape has remained relatively stable, with the U.S. dollar serving as the dominant currency. Using country-level SWIFT transaction data, our analysis confirms the importance of inertia, trade and financial linkages in shaping the currency landscape, consistent with existing studies. On geopolitical proximity, we find that closer proximity can boost the use of the euro and renminbi, notably among emerging market and developing economies, although the impact is rather muted in the full sample. The effect on RMB usage in the full sample is more pronounced during periods of heightened trade policy uncertainty. These findings suggest that in a more geoeconomically fragmented world, alternative currencies could play a greater role. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/189 |
| By: | Laborde, David; Olivetti, Elsa; Piñeiro, Valeria; Illescas, Nelson |
| Abstract: | This study identifies food system interventions with high transformational potential for Indonesia by utilizing the MIRAGRODEP a multi-region, multisector computable general equilibrium model to analyze policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a range of economic, social, and environmental impacts. Initiatives such as social safety nets and food stamps can enhance affordability, while repurposing farm subsidies can improve socio-economic sustainability. Comprehensive policy packages that include social safety nets, repurposing agricultural supports, environmental regulation and investment in sustainable production, can lead to substantial GDP growth, poverty reduction, and dietary enhancements. However, each intervention presents distinct trade-offs between economic gains and environmental implications. This analysis underscores the need for a holistic policy approach when trying to achieve multiple sustainability goals. Implementing a blend of policies designed to promote environmental, social, and economic sustainability simultaneously could drive Indonesia towards a sustainable and resilient food system, addressing the complex interplay between economic development, environmental conservation, and improved nutrition. |
| Keywords: | food systems; computable general equilibrium models; policies; social safety nets; sustainable development; agriculture; economic development; nutrition; poverty; South-eastern Asia; Asia; Indonesia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2265 |
| By: | Mogens Fosgerau; Nikolaj Nielsen; Mads Paulsen; Thomas Kj{\ae}r Rasmussen; Rui Yao |
| Abstract: | This paper considers substitution patterns in the perturbed utility route choice model. We provide a general result that determines the marginal change in link flows following a marginal change in link costs across the network. We give a general condition on the network structure under which all paths are necessarily substitutes and an example in which some paths are complements. The presence of complementarity contradicts a result in a previous paper in this journal; we point out and correct the error. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08347 |
| By: | Zheyuan Zhang (Capital University of Economics and Business); Hui Xu (Beijing Normal University); Ruilin Liu (Capital University of Economics and Business); Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of the Free Education Policy, a major education reform implemented in rural China in 2006, as a natural experiment on the intergenerational transmission of cognitive skills. The identification strategy relies on a difference-in-differences approach and exploits the fact that the reform was implemented gradually at different times across different provinces. By utilizing nationally representative data from the China Family Panel Studies, we find that an additional semester of exposure to the Free Education Policy reduces the intergenerational transmission of parent and child cognitive scores by an approximately 1% standard deviation in rural China, indicating a reduction of 3.5% in intergenerational cognitive persistence. The improvement in cognitive mobility across generations might be attributed to enhanced school attainment, the relaxation of budget constraints, and increased social contact for children whose parents are less advantaged in terms of cognitive skills. |
| Keywords: | Free Education policy, intergenerational transmission, cognitive skills |
| JEL: | H52 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-017 |
| By: | Bašić, Zvonimir (University of Glasgow); Bortolotti, Stefania (University of Bologna); Salicath, Daniel (NAV Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration); Schmidt, Stefan (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Schneider, Sebastian O. (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Sutter, Matthias (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) |
| Abstract: | Incentives are supposed to increase effort, yet individuals react differently to incentives. We examine this heterogeneity by investigating how personal characteristics, preferences, and socio-economic background relate to incentives and performance in a real effort task. We analyze the performance of 1, 933 high-school students under a Fixed, Variable, or Tournament payment. Productivity and beliefs about relative performance, but hardly any personal characteristics, play a decisive role for performance when payment schemes are exogenously imposed. Only when given the choice to select the payment scheme, personality traits, economic preferences and socioeconomic background matter. Algorithmic assignment of payment schemes could improve performance, earnings, and utility, as we show. |
| Keywords: | effort, productivity, incentives, personality traits, preferences, socio-economic background, ability, heterogeneity, sorting, algorithm, lab-in-the-field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 D91 J24 J41 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17287 |
| By: | Sylvain B. Ngassam (Dschang, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Gildas Tiwang Ngueuleweu (Dschang, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This research empirically analyzes the effect of social media on fragility. It goes beyond political grounds which oppose techno-optimistic to techno-pessimistic perceptions of the impact of social media to analyze its consequences on global, Security fragility, economic and social fragilities. The research uses annual data from a panel of 47 African countries for the period 2000–2018. Results reveal that the use of social media by the public to organize offline political actions has no outcome on global fragility. However, its use by elites for the same end accentuates global state fragility. This operates through Security and political fragilities. Fragility is negatively associated with higher civil society participation, education and democracy. The use of social media to organize offline political actions either by people or by elites in the context of higher civil society participation reduces fragility, while its use either by people or by elites in the context of higher educational level accentuates state fragility. The use of social media to organize offline political actions by people in the context of democracy boosts fragility but its use by elites in the same framework reduces fragility. There is a need to sensitize people, especially elites in Africa on the threats and opportunities of social media. There is also a necessity to develop a dynamic, well-educated and well-organized civil society and population in order to better valorize the opportunities that social media represents. |
| Keywords: | Social media, state fragility, security fragility, political fragility, economic fragility and social fragility |
| JEL: | G20 O38 O40 O55 P37 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/034 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:762 |
| By: | Yang, Dongkyu |
| Abstract: | The idea that labor scarcity can induce economic development has been long hypothesized (Hicks, 1932; Habakkuk, 1962), but the evidence is scarce, especially on non-agricultural development. In this paper, I assess the role of the Second Great Migration (1940-1970) on the subsequent structural change in the American South between 1970 and 2010. Empirical results using shift-share instruments show that out-migration incentivized physical capital investment and capital-augmenting technical change, increasing capital and output per worker in both agriculture and manufacturing at least until 2010. Labor reallocated from agriculture to nonagriculture. I then develop and calibrate a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that allows substitution between factors of production, factor-biased technical change, and Heckscher–Ohlin forces in trade. The quantitative results indicate that the adjustments to the Second Great Migration could have contributed to 7% of the total decrease in agricultural employment between 1940 and 2010 in the South. The contribution analyses suggest that labor-capital substitution played a leading role in economic adjustment to the migration, with capital-biased technical change and the quasi-Rybczynski effect playing important supplementary roles. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dtxn4 |
| By: | Mr. Mario Catalan; Mr. Salih Fendoglu; Tomohiro Tsuruga |
| Abstract: | Do geopolitical tensions between countries influence the cross-border asset allocation of investment funds? Our answer is yes. We estimate gravity models and find that investment funds allocate smaller shares of their portfolios to recipient countries that are geopolitically more distant to their country of origin—with geopolitical distance measured by dissimilarity in countries’ voting behavior in the United Nations General Assembly. We also find an investment diversion effect: a recipient country attracts additional investments when its source countries get geopolitically more distant to third-party countries. These results are robust to instrumenting geopolitical distance and using alternative distance measures. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; geopolitics; geoeconomics; fragmentation; portfolioflows; cross-border; asset allocation; investment funds; gravitymodel; international finance. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/196 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | krisis ekonomi, perlindungan sosial, bantuan sosial |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:806 |
| By: | Joanna Mazurkiewicz; Aleksandra Prusak; Jan Frankowski |
| Abstract: | Some households in energy poverty cannot rely on support from other people. Also, the effectiveness of programs combating energy poverty is limited due to difficulties in reaching households in crisis. Without institutional, material, and emotional support, people experiencing energy poverty cannot improve their situation. We argue for broader usage of social support networks to tackle energy poverty. Involving local leaders, community groups and organizations will facilitate reaching energy-poor people and enhance the effectiveness of public policy. We recommend three actions: 1) harnessing the potential of local organizations to reach energy-poor households, 2) extending the scope of support in implementing the investments through the assistance provided by social organizations, and 3) considering specific energy needs in the designing instruments to address energy poverty. |
| Keywords: | energy poverty, social inequalities, social networks |
| JEL: | D10 I14 I32 R29 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:ppaper:pp012024 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Brunei faces complex diversification challenges while it continues to contend with a protracted recovery since the pandemic. Real GDP has rebounded moderately, driven mainly by the non-oil and gas (O&G) sector and earlier than expected supply from a new O&G field in Q4 2023. Challenges persisted in downstream and upstream O&G production until H1 and Q3 2023, respectively, weakening fiscal and external positions in 2023. |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/301 |
| By: | Donald Feaver |
| Keywords: | desentralisasi dan otonomi daerah, dana alokasi khusus |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3456 |
| By: | David Neumark; Emma Wohl |
| Abstract: | One of the arguments increasingly made to support large minimum wage increases is that they decrease wage or earnings gaps for minorities or women (e.g., Derenoncourt and Montialoux, 2021). The argument is often made with particular reference to higher tipped minimum wages for restaurant workers, because of discrimination in tipping that is immune to equal pay policy requirements. Of course, even if higher tipped minimum wages reduce hourly pay differences between groups, increases in tipped minimum wages can reduce employment or hours among restaurant workers (Neumark and Yen, 2023), and these effects could differ by race and gender, so implications for hourly earnings do not necessarily extend to overall earnings. We estimate the impact of variation in tipped minimum wages – or, equivalently, tip credits – on earnings of restaurant workers (which ignores employment variation but incorporates hours variation). We find that tipped minimum wages raise hourly earnings of women, but not of Blacks or Hispanics. But tipped minimum wages generally do not raise weekly earnings for these groups (because of hours declines for women). In contrast, regular minimum wages boost hourly and weekly earnings of all three groups of restaurant workers, with the effects arising from non-tipped workers. |
| JEL: | J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32964 |
| By: | Pascal Beckers; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ksenija Ivanović; Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Friedrich Poeschel; Alireza Sabouniha (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of labour shortages on migration aspirations and destination preferences among individuals from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. Using a two-stage Heckman selection model, we analyse data from the OeNB Euro Survey and the World Bank’s STEP Measurement Program. The results indicate that labour shortages significantly influence migration decisions individuals are more likely to aspire to migrate if there is a shortage of workers in their occupation in the aspired destination countries, while shortages in their home country reduce migration aspirations. These findings suggest that both origin and destination countries should consider labour market conditions when formulating migration policies. For destination countries, highlighting demand for specific skills can attract needed workers, while Western Balkan countries should address the education-labour market mismatch to mitigate local shortages. Policy co-ordination between regions is crucial to manage migration flows and address skill gaps without exacerbating local shortages. |
| Keywords: | migration drivers, migration aspirations/desires, destination decision, choice model |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:252 |
| By: | Jeffrey Clemens; Julia A. Payson; Stan Veuger |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented levels of federal transfers to state governments. Did this funding increase benefit incumbent politicians electorally? Identifying the effect of revenue windfalls on voting is challenging because whatever conditions led to the influx of cash might also benefit or harm incumbents for other reasons. We develop an instrument that allows us to predict allocations to states based on variation in congressional representation. We find that incumbents in state-wide races in 2020, 2021, and 2022 performed significantly better in states that received more relief funding due to their overrepresentation in Congress. These results are robust across specifications and after adjusting for a variety of economic and political controls. We consistently find that the pandemic-period electoral advantage of incumbent politicians in states receiving more aid substantially exceeds the more modest advantage politicians in these states enjoyed before the pandemic. This paper contributes to our understanding of economic voting and the incumbency advantage during times of crisis as well as the downstream electoral consequences of both the COVID-19 pandemic and of unequal political representation at the federal level. |
| JEL: | H7 H77 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32962 |
| By: | Claire Greene; Fumiko Hayashi; Alicia Lloro; Oz Shy; Joanna Stavins; Ying Lei Toh |
| Abstract: | US households that lack digital means of making and receiving payments cannot participate fully in an increasingly digitized economy. Assessing the scope of this problem and addressing it requires a definition of households that are underserved in digital payments. Traditional definitions of households underserved in the banking system—those that are unbanked and those that are underbanked—do not account for the ownership of nonbank transaction accounts that can be used to make and receive digital payments. In this paper, we define households underserved in digital payments by considering four key elements—access, use, safety, and affordability—and discuss how researchers may assess these elements to quantify the share of households underserved in digital payments. |
| Keywords: | digital payments; underserved; fintech; financial inclusion; nonbanks |
| JEL: | D12 D18 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:98803 |
| By: | Alex Arifianto |
| Keywords: | penuaan, kebijakan publik, jaminan sosial, Indonesia |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3513 |
| By: | Ana Costa-Ramón; Ursina Schaede; Michaela Slotwinski; Anne Ardila Brenøe |
| Abstract: | The “child penalty” significantly reduces women’s lifetime earnings and pension savings, but it remains unclear whether these gaps are the deliberate result of forward-looking decisions. This paper provides novel evidence on the role of information constraints in mothers’ labor supply decisions. We first document descriptively that mothers are largely inattentive to the long-term financial consequences of reduced hours. In a large-scale field experiment that combines rich survey and administrative data, we then provide mothers with objective, individualized information about the long-run costs of reduced labor supply. The treatment increases demand for financial information and future labor supply plans, in particular among women who underestimate the long-term costs. Leveraging linked employer administrative data one year post-intervention, we observe that mothers who underestimate the long-term costs increase their labor supply by 6 percent over the mean. |
| JEL: | J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:452 |
| By: | Sandy Chen; Leqi Zeng; Abhinav Raghunathan; Flora Huang; Terrence C. Kim |
| Abstract: | Large Language Models (LLMs) research in the financial domain is particularly complex due to the sheer number of approaches proposed in literature. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as one of the leading methods in the sector due to its inherent groundedness and data source variability. In this work, we introduce a RAG framework called Mixture of Agents (MoA) and demonstrate its viability as a practical, customizable, and highly effective approach for scaling RAG applications. MoA is essentially a layered network of individually customized small language models (Hoffmann et al., 2022) collaborating to answer questions and extract information. While there are many theoretical propositions for such an architecture and even a few libraries for generally applying the structure in practice, there are limited documented studies evaluating the potential of this framework considering real business constraints such as cost and speed. We find that the MoA framework, consisting of small language models (Hoffmann et al., 2022), produces higher quality and more grounded responses across various financial domains that are core to Vanguard's business while simultaneously maintaining low costs. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07487 |
| By: | Gillespie, Jeffrey; Raszap Skorbiansky, Sharon; Law, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | United States’ organic dairy production has grown over the past three decades. This study uses USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey data from 2005, 2010, 2016, and 2021 (along with other USDA data) to examine changes in farm structure, production costs, technology adoption, and challenges facing organic dairy producers. As organic dairy markets evolved (along with regulatory changes in production standards), organic milk production and the number of organic dairy operations increased. The report shows that the growth of organic milk production has differed by U.S. State, with regional differences in farm structure and cost of production. From 2005 to 2021, there have been modest changes in organic dairy farm structure and adoption of technology, with larger farms more likely to utilize advanced technologies and production systems and benefit from economies of scale. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Dairy Farming, Dairy Production/Industries, Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:346026 |
| By: | Riukula, Krista; Väänänen, Touko |
| Abstract: | Abstract Effects on labour market outcomes are often referred to when discussing the wider economic benefits of transport projects. However, research on the topic in the Finnish context is scarce. Thus, proponents of transport projects may put exaggerated hopes on the labour market effects when arguing for the projects. This review aims to give researchers a good starting point for analyzing the labour market effects of transport projects in Finland. We review theoretical frameworks and recent empirical literature on the effects of transport projects and accessibility on the labour market. We discuss the available data sources in Finland and methodological considerations for analyzing causal effects. Furthermore, we explore the integration of labour market impacts into cost-benefit analyses considering, for example, the risk of double-counting benefits. |
| Keywords: | Transport project, Labour market, Wider economic impacts, Empirical research |
| JEL: | R42 H43 J68 H54 |
| Date: | 2024–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:120 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:2052 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report, urban poverty, policymaking, PNPM, child poverty, inclusive growth, PPLS 2011 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:742 |
| By: | Bryson, Alex (University College London); Morris, Tim (University College London); Bann, David (University College London); Wilkinson, David (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Using two polygenic scores (PGS) for educational attainment in a biomedical study of all those born in a single week in Great Britain in 1958 we show that the genetic predisposition for educational attainment is associated with labour market participation and wages over the life- course for men and women. Those with a higher PGS spend more time in employment and full-time employment and, when in employment, earn higher hourly wages. The employment associations are more pronounced for women than for men. Conditional on employment, the PGS wage associations are sizeable, persistent and similar for men and women between ages 33 and 55. A one standard deviation increase in the PGS is associated with a 6-10 log point increase in hourly earnings. However, whereas a 1 standard deviation increase in the PGS at age 23 raises women's earnings by around 5 log points, it is not statistically significant among men. These associations are robust to non-random selection into employment and to controls for parental education. Our results suggest that genetic endowments of a cohort born a half century ago continued to play a significant role in their fortunes in the labor market of the 21st Century. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, employment, educational attainment, polygenic score, National Child Development Study |
| JEL: | I26 J31 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17255 |
| By: | Carrozzo, Salvatore (University of Naples Parthenope); Lodigiani, Elisabetta (University of Padova); Venturini, Alessandra (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | The consumption of cultural goods can play a crucial role in the social and economic integration of immigrants into their destination country. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the cultural national program, IoStudio, designed to enhance the consumption of cultural goods among upper secondary students in Italy, on post-secondary investment in education and early labor market conditions among young immigrants. Using data from a unique survey conducted by the Institute for Multiethnic Studies (ISMU) on a representative sample of the entire immigrant population in the Italian Lombardy region and employing a difference-in-differences estimator, we find that the IoStudio policy has positive effects on investment in post-secondary education. Additionally, young foreigners exposed to the policy exhibit higher earnings, at least in the short run, when they enter the labour market. We claim that cultural consumption by immigrants is a relevant concern, deserving close attention in terms of increasing social capital and labour market inclusion. |
| Keywords: | cultural participation, migrants, integration, Italy |
| JEL: | Z11 J61 J62 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17307 |
| By: | Ryoji Koike (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: ryouji.koike@boj.or.jp)) |
| Abstract: | This paper overviews the developments of the Bank of Japan's balance sheet from the Meiji era to postwar reconstruction. The paper assesses balance sheet items in terms of both nominal values and ratios to nominal GNP, using semiannual and monthly data reassembled from historical materials. In the semiannual data, the ratio of total assets to GNP remained at 10-15 percent in peacetime but increased to 19-48 percent in wartime, whereas it was 16 percent at most during financial crises. Meanwhile, banknotes remained stable, at 8-11 percent, except in the Bank's early years and at end of the Pacific War in 1941-45. The monthly data capture short-term changes during financial crises and rapid changes in economic and financial institutions, such as the 1923 earthquake, the return to the gold standard in 1930, and the emergency measures in 1946 that voided old banknotes to reduce money in circulation. These data provide useful information for research in history fields such as the identification of exogenous shocks. |
| Keywords: | from the Meiji era to postwar reconstruction, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet, historical records, semiannual data, monthly data |
| JEL: | N25 Y10 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:24-e-07 |
| By: | Sara MacLennan |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the cost-effectiveness of providing NICE recommended psychological therapy to young people. For each type of mental health problem we show: (i) the assumptions used to derive the impact of treating one person on the number of "additional years of healthy life" (free of the condition) that that person will experience. (ii) the cost-saving to the government per "additional year of healthy life". (iii) the resulting overall cost-savings per person treated. (iv) the initial cost of the treatment, and (v) the resulting WELLBYs. |
| Keywords: | child mental health, schools, anxiety, crime, education |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepops:63 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:1473 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Laporan tahunan |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:2382 |
| By: | Carrieri, Vincenzo (University of Calabria); de Blasio, G. (International Monetary Fund); Ferrara, Andreas (University of Warwick); Nisticò, Rosanna (University of Calabria) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insights into the design of effective location-based policies. In the context of European regional policy, we use algorithms to predict regions that are likely to underutilize funding and identify the key determinants of their low absorptive capacity. We then use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to document that EU funds are ineffective in recipients predicted to have low absorptive capacity while increasing output and employment in high-capacity regions. Our approach allows early identification and targeting of interventions to increase regional spending capacity based on publicly available data and standard algorithms, thereby facilitating implementation by policymakers. |
| Keywords: | program design, location-based policies, machine learning |
| JEL: | C21 F35 H77 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17308 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:1915 |
| By: | Michelle W. Bowman |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:98807 |
| By: | Alvaro Aguirre |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a model of heterogenous agents, incomplete markets and idiosyncratic shocks extended with a political mechanism that allows for realistic party competition. Higher inequality leads to more disperse policy preferences, to which parties respond endogenously distancing themselves from median voter preferences. The polarization of party proposals leads to greater uncertainty before elections, as well as greater policy switches after them, with significant macroeconomic effects. Results are in line with previous empirical evidence linking inequality, polarization and macroeconomic performance. The model is solved introducing political quasi-aggregation, and can be extended to analyze different economic policies and alternative political institutions. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1011 |
| By: | Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Viktrória Döme; Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Francesca Guadagno (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Nadya Heger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Jan Muś; Magdolna Sass; Bernd Christoph Ströhm (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Andrea Szalavetz; Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This study builds on our previous analyses of a new growth model for the EU member states of Central and Eastern European (CEE), focusing on fostering innovation-driven development. We aim to explain the types of innovation systems and policies that enhance domestic innovation capabilities, drawing on global best practices. A critical evaluation of the current innovation landscape in EU-CEE countries is conducted, particularly in the context of the green and digital transitions. The study assesses the strengths and weaknesses of both national innovation initiatives and opportunities provided by EU industrial and technology policy frameworks. Based on these insights, we offer actionable policy recommendations to promote innovation-driven growth, enhance productivity, and boost economic convergence over the medium term, taking into account the unique political and historical contexts of the EU-CEE countries. Additionally, we prepare country-specific briefing notes tailored to the individual development needs and opportunities of each nation. |
| Keywords: | Innovation policy, technological development, Central Eastern Europe, convergence |
| JEL: | O14 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:476 |
| By: | Müller, Laurin; Jacke, Christian Olaf |
| Abstract: | Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit der Rolle der Psychologie in der Gesundheitsförderung vor dem Hintergrund aktueller demografischer Veränderungen, den damit einhergehenden chronischen Erkrankungen sowie wachsenden Ausgaben. Ziel ist es, einen Überblick über wesentliche psychologische Einflüsse auf das freiwillige Inanspruchnahmeverhalten zu geben und deren Bedeutung für erfolgreiche Gesundheitsförderung zu verdeutlichen. Methodisch basiert die Untersuchung auf einer umfassenden Literaturrecherche, die Primärstudien, Reviews und Metaanalysen einbezieht, wobei alle Studien auf Personenebenen ansetzen. Die Ergebnisse lassen sich entlang der "Patient Journey" in drei Hauptbereiche gliedern. Ansprache, Umsetzung von Vorsätzen und Bindung. Im Bereich der Ansprache spielt die Risikokommunikation eine zentrale Rolle, wobei auffällt, dass positive Informationen bereitwilliger akzeptiert werden als negative (sogenannte defensiv-asymmetrischen Risikokalkulation). Dieses Phänomen erschwert die Vermittlung von Gesundheitsrisiken erheblich. Als vielversprechender Ansatz zur Verhaltensänderung hat sich die motivierende Gesprächsführung erwiesen, insbesondere bei chronischen Erkrankungen. Eine besondere Herausforderung stellt jedoch das Präventionsdilemma dar, bei dem schwer erreichbare Zielgruppen oft den größten Bedarf an Präventionsmaßnahmen haben. Bei der Umsetzung von Vorsätzen wurden verschiedene psychologische Konzepte identifiziert. Nudging zielt darauf ab, durch subtile Umfeldgestaltung gesundheitsförderliches Verhalten zu begünstigen. Precommitment nutzt präventive Selbstverpflichtungen, um zukünftiges Verhalten zu steuern. Boosting setzt auf die Stärkung individueller Kompetenzen zur langfristigen Verhaltensänderung. Implementationsintentionen fördern die Zielerreichung durch konkrete Wenn-dann-Pläne. Alle diese Ansätze zeigen Potenzial, wobei ihre Wirksamkeit je nach Kontext variiert und weitere Forschung notwendig ist. Für die langfristige Bindung von Teilnehmern an Gesundheitsprogrammen haben sich Strategien wie die Förderung von Gemeinschaft und sozialer Einbindung, Flexibilität in der Programmgestaltung sowie (nicht) monetäre Anreizsysteme als wirksam erwiesen. Dabei gewinnen auch digitale Tools zunehmend an Bedeutung, auch wenn hier spezifische Herausforderungen wie hohe Ausfallraten zu überwinden sind. Die Arbeit zeigt, dass über die gesamte Patient Journey hinweg vielfältige psychologische Prozesse wirksam für den Erfolg von Gesundheitsförderung sind. Die vorgestellten Ansätze bieten diverse Möglichkeiten zur Optimierung von Gesundheitsprogrammen, müssen jedoch stets an den jeweiligen Kontext angepasst werden. Trotz vielversprechender erster Erkenntnisse besteht in vielen Bereichen jedoch noch erheblicher Forschungsbedarf, insbesondere in praxisnahen Settings. Hier sind Akteure aus verschiedenen Bereichen des Gesundheitswesens gefordert, einen Beitrag zu leisten, um die Effektivität von Maßnahmen der Gesundheitsförderung und Prävention weiter zu verbessern und den zukünftigen Herausforderungen im Gesundheitsbereich besser begegnen zu können. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wipana:303048 |
| By: | Lee, Changjun |
| Abstract: | This study delves into the contemporary phenomenon of the convergence of digital technology and the service industry, aiming to provide a profound analysis and propose future-oriented directions for industrial development. It seeks to offer academic insights and practical guidelines through this exploration. The necessity of the research stems from the significant impact of digital technology in today's society, which is reshaping traditional service industry landscapes and prompting innovations in service delivery. Understanding these technological shifts is crucial for formulating effective industrial strategies and policies. This era of Digital Transformation (DT) reflects a transition from vertically integrated firms to disaggregated supply chains, highlighting the evolution of business competition into a fusion on digital platforms. The research aims to develop a new analytical framework to view the digital transformation process in the service industry, thereby innovating research and practical approaches in this field. A focus on innovative startups driving digital transformation is employed, with in-depth analyses using topic modeling and network analysis to understand their impact on the service industry. The study also investigates the fusion and trends within the service industry, utilizing topic modeling to examine classification methods and analyze the convergence trends of technology and business models (BM). Furthermore, the research aims to clarify the employment impacts within the digital transformation ecosystem. By analyzing factors influencing employment changes, it intends to provide insights into future employment trends and policy directions, preparing for the forthcoming era of advancements like artificial intelligence. This comprehensive approach not only aims to understand the current changes systematically but also to prepare for the rapidly evolving digital era's demands on the service industry. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302458 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Jean R. F. K. Bouanza (Brazzaville, Congo); Armand F. Akpa (Abomey-Calavi, Benin) |
| Abstract: | The present research is focused on how lifelong gender inclusive education moderates the effect of governance on structural transformation. It is based on a sample of forty-one countries in Africa for the period 2004 to 2021 and the adopted empirical strategy is the generalized method of moments (GMM). The estimation exercise is tailored such that lifelong gender inclusive education in interacted with political (i.e., political stability/no violence and voice & accountability), economic (i.e., government effectiveness and regulatory quality) and institutional (i.e., corruption-control and the rule of law) governance dynamics in order to affect manufacturing value added. Lifelong gender inclusive education is understood as the combined knowledge acquired in terms of gender parity education in primary, secondary and tertiary schools. The following findings are established. (i) Gender inclusive lifelong learning does not effectively moderate political governance and associated components (i.e., political stability/no violence and voice & accountability) as well as institutional governance and associated components (i.e., corruption-control and the rule of law) in order to improve manufacturing value added. (ii) Gender inclusive lifelong learning effectively moderates economic governance and associated dimensions (i.e., government effectiveness and regulatory quality) to improve manufacturing value added. However, only the thresholds corresponding to government effectiveness and economic governance are within policy range. Robustness of the findings is broadly confirmed, especially within the remits of additional elements in the conditioning information set and general governance. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Governance, gender inclusion, lifelong learning, structural transformation |
| JEL: | E60 F40 F59 D60 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:24/010 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Jean R. F. K. Bouanza (Brazzaville, Congo); Armand F. Akpa (Abomey-Calavi, Benin) |
| Abstract: | The present research is focused on how lifelong gender inclusive education moderates the effect of governance on structural transformation. It is based on a sample of forty-one countries in Africa for the period 2004 to 2021 and the adopted empirical strategy is the generalized method of moments (GMM). The estimation exercise is tailored such that lifelong gender inclusive education in interacted with political (i.e., political stability/no violence and voice & accountability), economic (i.e., government effectiveness and regulatory quality) and institutional (i.e., corruption-control and the rule of law) governance dynamics in order to affect manufacturing value added. Lifelong gender inclusive education is understood as the combined knowledge acquired in terms of gender parity education in primary, secondary and tertiary schools. The following findings are established. (i) Gender inclusive lifelong learning does not effectively moderate political governance and associated components (i.e., political stability/no violence and voice & accountability) as well as institutional governance and associated components (i.e., corruption-control and the rule of law) in order to improve manufacturing value added. (ii) Gender inclusive lifelong learning effectively moderates economic governance and associated dimensions (i.e., government effectiveness and regulatory quality) to improve manufacturing value added. However, only the thresholds corresponding to government effectiveness and economic governance are within policy range. Robustness of the findings is broadly confirmed, especially within the remits of additional elements in the conditioning information set and general governance. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Governance, gender inclusion, lifelong learning, structural transformation |
| JEL: | E60 F40 F59 D60 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/037 |
| By: | Kim, Seonghoon (Singapore Management University); Wang, Lanjie (Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the short-term impacts of unemployment in Singapore, a setting without public unemployment insurance. Using monthly panel data from the Singapore Life Panel, we analyze dynamic effects on major life outcomes such as income, spending, health, and subjective well-being over two years post-unemployment. Our findings reveal substantial initial earnings losses with incomplete recovery, as income remains 50.6% below pre-unemployment levels after 24 months. Despite this persistent income gap, consumption responses are modest, with total household expenditure decreasing by 13–17% over two years. The two-year marginal propensity to consume is about 0.2 which is smaller than estimates in countries with more extensive social insurance, suggesting robust self-insurance mechanisms. We observe increased retirement and self-employment but no significant spousal earnings response. While health status remains largely unchanged, we find substantial declines in life satisfaction. Our study provides insights into unemployment dynamics in a UI-free environment, suggesting modest welfare gains from introducing unemployment benefits in Singapore. |
| Keywords: | unemployment shock, consumption spending, event study design, monthly panel |
| JEL: | J14 J60 E24 D12 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17299 |
| By: | Cirillo, Valeria; Divella, Marialuisa; Ferrulli, Eustachio; Greco, Lidia |
| Abstract: | Within the context of the green industrial policies debate, this paper seeks to examine the progress of policy implementation regarding the upskilling and reskilling of workers under the European Just Transition Fund (JTF) 2021-27. Specifically, it focuses on distinct regions in three countries: Italy, Spain, and Germany. Through a combination of desk research and qualitative analysis via interviews with key informants, the research aims at assessing the advancement of training and retraining interventions for workers in those regions and identifying any implementation deficiencies and critical challenges encountered by these initiatives. The paper thus aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on green industrial policies and their implications for just transition and workforce development. Although it is too early for a comprehensive assessment due to limited actions in this field based on JTF implementation so far, some relevant policy implications can be drawn. These refer in particular to the need of better integrating the active labor market policy interventions under examination with a more comprehensive regional development strategy, while taking account of regional specificities and actual workers' needs in such specific contexts. |
| Keywords: | Just transition, active labor market policies, workers' upskilling and reskilling, industrial policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsew:303040 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:754 |
| By: | Alex Arifianto |
| Keywords: | aging, public policy, social security, Indonesia |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:706 |
| By: | Reynaert, Mathias; Xu, Wenxuan; Zhao, Hanlin |
| Abstract: | When making choices, agents often must form expectations about option attributes in the choice set. The information used to form these expectations is usually unobserved by researchers. We develop a discrete choice model where agents make choices with heterogeneous information sets that are unobserved. We demonstrate that preferences can be point-identified through a finite mixture approximation of the unobserved information structure, or set-identified using knowledge from a single agent type. These approaches are compatible with both individual- and market-level data. Applications include replicating Dickstein and Morales (2018) and estimating consumer valuations for future fuel costs without assumptions on expectation formation. |
| Keywords: | Discrete choice; unobserved information; mixture model; set identification |
| JEL: | C5 C8 D8 |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129713 |
| By: | David J. Deming; Mikko I. Silliman |
| Abstract: | This paper synthesizes the economics literature on skills and human capital, with a particular focus on higher-order capacities like social and decision-making skills. We review the empirical evidence on returns to human capital from both a micro and macro perspective, as well as the evidence on returns to human capital investment over the life-cycle. We highlight two key limitations of human capital theory as currently implemented. First, prior work mostly assumes that human capital is one-dimensional and can be measured by education or test scores alone. Second, human capital is typically modeled as augmenting the marginal product of labor with workers being treated as factors of production, just like physical capital. We argue for a new approach that treats workers as agents who decide how to allocate their labor over job tasks. Traditional cognitive skills make workers more productive in any task, while higher-order skills govern workers’ choices of which tasks to perform and whether to work alone or in a team. We illustrate the value of this approach with stylized models that incorporate teamwork and decision-making skills and generate predictions about how returns to skills vary across contexts. |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32908 |
| By: | Ms. Mitali Das; Manuel Linsenmeier; Gregor Schwerhoff |
| Abstract: | Climate policy at the subnational level is sometimes framed as being counterproductive, because climate change is considered a collective action problem that can be best addressed in a coalition that should be as large as possible. Using comprehensive data from US states on climate policy and policy outcomes, we show that state-level policy is effective in accelerating the adoption of solar energy. Crucially, however, state policies also have positive spillovers to other states, by making it more likely that neighboring states adopt climate policy as well. By proportionally attributing the spillover effects, we find that many US states achieve more climate benefits through the spillovers to other states than within their own jurisdiction. In a further step, we distinguish between climate policies in the energy sector and policies addressed either at other sectors or greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions generally. We find that climate policies in the energy sector are distinct from other climate policies in two ways: They have a significant effect on solar capacity growth and they diffuse more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Climate policy; policy diffusion; policy evaluation; subnational; spillovers |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/198 |
| By: | Asim Ghosh; Soumyajyoti Biswas; Bikas K. Chakrabarti |
| Abstract: | We study the fluctuations, particularly the inequality of fluctuations, in cryptocurrency prices over the last ten years. We calculate the inequality in the price fluctuations through different measures, such as the Gini and Kolkata indices, and also the $Q$ factor (given by the ratio between the highest value and the average value) of these fluctuations. We compare the results with the equivalent quantities in some of the more prominent national currencies and see that while the fluctuations (or inequalities in such fluctuations) for cryptocurrencies were initially significantly higher than national currencies, over time the fluctuation levels of cryptocurrencies tend towards the levels characteristic of national currencies. We also compare similar quantities for a few prominent stock prices. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.03676 |
| By: | Kim, Jung Ho; Lee, Dayoung; Hwang, Junseok; Lee, Junmin |
| Abstract: | In the relentless pursuit of urban prosperity and sustainability, cities worldwide are undergoing transformative changes, spurred by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and digital transformation(DX). At the forefront of this evolution are Smart Cities, which leverage cutting-edge information and communication technologies (ICT) to enhance public services and improve the overall quality of life for their inhabitants. These technologically advanced cities utilize data-driven decision-making to optimize various sectors, from mobility to governance, promising a new era of urban living. However, technologies that enable smart cities to develop, also risk deepening the digital divide. ICT infrastructure is a crucial element to smart cities' development, but it often overlooks the disparities in digital access and skills among different demographic groups. Preliminary research predominantly focuses on the technological and industrial components necessary for developing smart cities but falls short in addressing the social dimension, particularly the digital divide. This study aims to bridge this gap by exploring the digital divide within the context of Korean smart cities. The research conducts an empirical analysis of whole South Korean 229 cities and analyzes the impact of ICT infrastructure provision, knowledge-intensive industry specialization, and local governance capability alleviating or exacerbating digital divide. |
| Keywords: | Smart City, Digital Divide, ICT Infrastructure, Knowledge-Intensive Indusrtry, Governance Capability, Spatial Autocorrelation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302514 |
| By: | Alyssa Carlson (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia) |
| Abstract: | Previously, identification of triangular random coefficient models required a restriction on the dimension of the first stage heterogeneity or independence assumptions across the different sources of the heterogeneity. This note proposes a new identification strategy that does not rely on either of these restrictions but rather assumes conditional means have a conditional linear projection representation in order to construct “correction functions†to address endogeneity and gain identification of the average partial effect. This identification strategy allows for both continuous and discrete instruments. Finally, the proposed identification method is illustrated in estimating the returns to education. |
| Keywords: | Endogeneity, Control Function, Random Coefficient, Conditional Linear Projection |
| JEL: | C3 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2409 |
| By: | Zhaobo Zhu (Audencia Business School); Licheng Sun (Old Dominion University, Strome College of Business) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we provide new evidence on the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on asset pricing. Specifically, we find that short-term return reversals are stronger following high-EPU periods, likely due to an uncertainty-induced decrease in stock market liquidity. However, EPU does not appear to have a significant effect on accounting-based anomalies, possibly because these anomalies are not driven by stock illiquidity. Our findings suggest that EPU affects short-term asset prices mainly through stock liquidity. However, EPU may contain incremental information beyond stock liquidity. Moreover, the arrival of the latest fundamental information could significantly mitigate the effect of EPU on short-term reversals. |
| Keywords: | Economic Policy Uncertainty, Short-Term Reversals, Illiquidity |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04691597 |
| By: | Koussihouede, Oswald; Alidou, Sahawal; MSossou, Damase |
| Keywords: | education, Senegal, primary schools |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:2024.07 |
| By: | Samuel Chang; Andrew Kennedy; Aaron Leonard; John List |
| Abstract: | We provide twelve best practices and discuss how each practice can help researchers accurately, credibly, and ethically use Generative AI (GenAI) to enhance experimental research. We split the twelve practices into four areas. First, in the pre-treatment stage, we discuss how GenAI can aid in pre-registration procedures, data privacy concerns, and ethical considerations specific to GenAI usage. Second, in the design and implementation stage, we focus on GenAI's role in identifying new channels of variation, piloting and documentation, and upholding the four exclusion restrictions. Third, in the analysis stage, we explore how prompting and training set bias can impact results as well as necessary steps to ensure replicability. Finally, we discuss forward-looking best practices that are likely to gain importance as GenAI evolves. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:artefa:00796 |
| By: | Musriyadi Nabiu; Hastuti |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3696 |
| By: | Gabriel Felbermayr (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Klaus Friesenbichler (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, Medical University of Vienna, Complexity Science Hub Vienna) |
| Abstract: | ASCII proposes a revision of the EU directive on supply chain due diligence, the EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive. The directive is based on European values and is to be welcomed. ASCII suggests that the Directive should focus, where possible, on direct monitoring of suppliers rather than on bilateral relationships between buyers and sellers. The directive should be amended to allow the use of negative and positive lists of countries and suppliers. Such lists contain foreign suppliers that are prohibited (negative lists) or authorised (positive lists) to participate in EU supply chains. When contracting with companies on positive lists, EU importers do not have to carry out due diligence on the companies. They are prohibited from doing business with companies on negative lists. The Directive will continue to apply to non-listed companies. This reduces the overall cost of the regulation for EU importers, reduces the likelihood of unwanted side-effects and makes the instrument more effective, as non-compliance by a foreign supplier leads to delisting throughout the EU, not just with a single buyer. It would also increaseeffectiveness by reducing legal uncertainty and extending the scope of the regulation beyond EU-based production networks. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:asciis:002 |
| By: | Arindrajit Dube; Michael Reich; Akash Bhatt; Denis Sosinskiy |
| Abstract: | Dube, Lester and Reich (2010, DLR), using state minimum wage discontinuities across bordering counties and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, did not detect negative minimum wage effects on restaurant employment. Jha, Neumark and Rodriguez-Lopez (2024, JNR) claim that looking within multi-state commuting zones and using County Business Patterns data provides a superior approach to DLR and does find disemployment effects. We show that JNR’s results are confounded by parallel trends violations in the 1990s, when minimum wage events were rare and small in magnitude; JNR’s outmoded two-way-fixed-effects model amplifies the biases introduced by these violations. Our estimates using their specifications and data on only post-2000 data fail to detect disemployment effects. The same results hold using QCEW and ACS datasets. Our preferred event study difference-in-differences approach, which analyzes only data that fall clearly within an event’s window, also does not detect negative employment effects. This result holds whether we compare across all states, look within commuting zones or within border county pairs, and regardless of the data set or time period. |
| JEL: | J20 J39 J88 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32902 |
| By: | Ruly Marianti |
| Keywords: | manajemen bencana |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3457 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:758 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:2880 |
| By: | Rodríguez-Puello, Gabriel; Rickardsson, Jonna |
| Abstract: | Little is known about the spatial diffusion of the effects of economic shocks on the labor market. We use the mining boom resulting from the unexpected increase in the international prices of resources, geocoded microdata originating from administrative registers of individuals in Sweden, and dynamic difference-in-differences specifications to assess the spatial diffusion of economic shocks on labor market outcomes; we focus specifically on people to determine who is affected by the mining boom. We find consistent short- and long-lasting positive effects of the mining boom on individual earnings that spread as far as 83 km from the mining site. We also find a large gain in earnings and employment for residents directly employed in the mining sector, accompanied by significant spillover effects in other sectors. Furthermore, we find evidence of the migration of young, nonmarried, and highly educated individuals to the mining area, who obtain benefits from the mining boom in terms of earnings and employment; this is especially true for migrants who relocate to work directly in the mining sector. |
| Date: | 2024–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:tzmf2 |
| By: | Hikaru Ogawa (Faculty of Economcis, The University of Tokyo); Ryota Tsuchiya (Graduate School of Economcis, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of international taxation rules that allow market countries to tax the sales of a giant digital IT firm based outside the countries. It develops an asymmetric tax competition model where one country hosts an online service supplier selling digital services over the Internet worldwide. The main finding indicates that changes in tax rules improving market countries will not only benefit them but also the country hosting the global supplier whose tax bases would shrink. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2024cf1235 |
| By: | Gabriel Felbermayr (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Klaus Friesenbichler (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII)); Julian Hinz (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Hendrik Mahlkow (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); Kiel Institute for the World Economy) |
| Abstract: | On 12 June, the European Commission announced provisional countervailing tariffs of 21% on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) imported from China. This paper uses a large-scale trade model (KITE) to assess the impact of the tariffs, showing that while short-term effects may be larger, long-term effects are likely to be moderate. BEV imports from China are projected to fall by 42%, with limited impacts on EU car exports. This policy brief also analyzes potential retaliatory measures from China, including tariffs on EU pork exports, and highlights the need for careful negotiation to avoid escalation. |
| Keywords: | BEVs, Trade Policy, Countervailing Tariffs, EU-China Relations, Retaliatory Measures, KITE Model |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:asciis:004 |
| By: | Claire Greene; Fumiko Hayashi; Alicia Lloro; Oz Shy; Joanna Stavins; Ying Lei Toh |
| Abstract: | U.S. households that lack digital means of making and receiving payments cannot participate fully in an increasingly digitized economy. Assessing the scope of this problem and addressing it requires a definition of households that are underserved in digital payments. Traditional definitions of households underserved in the banking system—those that are unbanked and those that are underbanked—are not suitable because they do not account for the ownership of nonbank transaction accounts that can be used to make and receive digital payments. In this paper, we define households underserved in digital payments by considering four key elements—access, use, safety, and affordability—and discuss how researchers may assess these elements to quantify the share of households underserved in digital payments. |
| Keywords: | payment systems; digital currencies; fintech |
| JEL: | D12 D18 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:98816 |
| By: | Kristian S. Blickle; Evan Perry; João A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | In support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) creates flood maps that indicate areas with high flood risk, where mortgage applicants must buy flood insurance. The effects of flood insurance mandates were discussed in detail in a prior blog series. In 2021 alone, more than $200 billion worth of mortgages were originated in areas covered by a flood map. However, these maps are discrete, whereas the underlying flood risk may be continuous, and they are sometimes outdated. As a result, official flood maps may not fully capture the true flood risk an area faces. In this post, we make use of unique property-level mortgage data and find that in 2021, mortgages worth over $600 billion were originated in areas with high flood risk but no flood map. We examine what types of lenders are aware of this “unmapped” flood risk and how they adjust their lending practices. We find that—on average—lenders are more reluctant to lend in these unmapped yet risky regions. Those that do, such as nonbanks, are more aggressive at securitizing and selling off risky loans. |
| Keywords: | floods; climate change; mortgages |
| JEL: | G21 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98848 |
| By: | Elías Albagli; Pablo García Silva; Gonzalo García-Trujillo; María Antonia Yung |
| Abstract: | This paper studies emigration pressures associated with climate change and sheds light on how they could evolve as climate degrades further. We start with a narrative approach focusing on four historical events. We document that severe climate disruption led to significant outward migration in the past, driven by social conflict, violence, and, in some cases, societal collapse. Then, we turn the analysis to the present. Using a regression panel approach for 154 countries between 1990 and 2020, we find a highly significant and nonlinear relationship between climate change and migration, with a U shape around a “temperature optimum.” The nonlinearity is stronger in poorer countries. Indeed, despite tropical climatic zones having experienced the smallest increase in temperature thus far, they exhibit the largest increase in outward migration due to their higher initial temperature and lower GDP per capita (limiting adaptation). Finally, we use the estimated model to project future migration under five IPCC scenarios and for a tipping point scenario (AMOC collapse). We find moderate effects on migration increase under moderate climate scenarios, but that migration would double for tropical areas in the most extreme scenario. In the AMOC collapse scenario, where regions close to the poles will freeze, we find much larger effects, with total outward migration being driven by cold and temperate climate countries. We conjecture that our results constitute a lower bound of the possible effects, given (i) the non-well-captured nonlinearities and (ii) the potential fall in income due to climate damages that limit adaptation. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1019 |
| By: | Crowner, Jarah; Chen, Katherine L. |
| Abstract: | Motor vehicle traffic fatalities are a public health problem in the United States. In 2022, there were 42, 514 people killed and another 2.38 million people injured on U.S. roadways (National Center for Statistics and Analysis [NCSA], 2024). These fatalities are a leading cause of death and kill over 116 people each day. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS), in 2022, for people ages 15-24, motor vehicle crashes were the leading cause of death in the United States (CDC, 2022). Across all age groups, motor vehicle crashes are in the top 10 leading causes of death. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9b88z0gs |
| By: | Wei Zhang |
| Abstract: | High-dimensional matrix-valued time series are of significant interest in economics and finance, with prominent examples including cross region macroeconomic panels and firms' financial data panels. We introduce a class of Bayesian matrix dynamic factor models that utilize matrix structures to identify more interpretable factor patterns and factor impacts. Our model accommodates time-varying volatility, adjusts for outliers, and allows cross-sectional correlations in the idiosyncratic components. To determine the dimension of the factor matrix, we employ an importance-sampling estimator based on the cross-entropy method to estimate marginal likelihoods. Through a series of Monte Carlo experiments, we show the properties of the factor estimators and the performance of the marginal likelihood estimator in correctly identifying the true dimensions of the factor matrices. Applying our model to a macroeconomic dataset and a financial dataset, we demonstrate its ability in unveiling interesting features within matrix-valued time series. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08354 |
| By: | Jacob D. Leshno; Elaine Shi; Rafael Pass |
| Abstract: | Bitcoin demonstrated the possibility of a financial ledger that operates without the need for a trusted central authority. However, concerns persist regarding its security and considerable energy consumption. We assess the consensus protocols that underpin Bitcoin's functionality, questioning whether they can ensure economically meaningful security while maintaining a permissionless design that allows free entry of operators. We answer this affirmatively by constructing a protocol that guarantees economic security and preserves Bitcoin's permissionless design. This protocol's security does not depend on monetary payments to miners or immense electricity consumption, which our analysis suggests are ineffective. Our framework integrates economic theory with distributed systems theory, and highlights the role of the protocol's user community. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08951 |
| By: | Gregoric, Aleksandra (Copenhagen Business School); Kato, Takao (Colgate University); Larsen, Casper B.L. (Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | We join the scholarly conversation on the implications of the different configurations of firms' stakeholder coalitions for their employment practices, by investigating how the structural arrangements granting employees a role in firm boards of directors (employee governance representation, EGR) affect firms' propensity to staff management positions through external labor markets rather than internal promotions. The literature has thus far pointed to a possible workers' impact on employment practices primarily through the power mechanism, contingent on the employees' ability to enforce their preferences with regard to hiring and other employment practices. We contribute to this scholarly work by (1) explicating why employees likely prefer firms to rely on internal labor markets (ILM) when hiring new managers and (2) conceptualizing the employees' impact on the staffing of management positions via the efficiency mechanism, related to the positive effects of EGR on the functioning of the ILM. We provide support for our hypotheses, using linked employer-employee data for Danish firms during 2001-2017. |
| Keywords: | employee representation, corporate governance, hiring practices, internal labor markets, management jobs |
| JEL: | M5 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17304 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report, cronic poverty, business climate, business regulation, teacher absenteeism, Cash Transfer |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:746 |
| By: | Rahim Darma |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:684 |
| By: | Tomer Blumkin (BGU); Spencer Bastani (IFAU and Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Luca Micheletto (Department of Law, University of Milan) |
| Keywords: | nonlinear taxation, education, asymmetric information, human capital, predistribution |
| JEL: | D82 H21 H52 J31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:2413 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:760 |
| By: | Caterina Lepore; Mr. Junghwan Mok |
| Abstract: | We assess financial stability risks from floods in the Netherlands using a comprehensive set of flood scenarios considering different factors including geographical regions, flood types, climate conditions, return periods, and adaptation. The estimated damage from each flood scenario is used to calibrate the corresponding macro-financial scenario for bank stress tests. Our results show the importance of considering these heterogeneous factors when conducting physical climate risk stress tests, as the impact of floods on bank capital varies significantly by scenario. We find that climate change amplifies the adverse impact on banks’ capital, but stronger flood defenses in the Netherlands can help mitigate some impacts. Further, we find a non-linear relationship between flood damages and banks’ capital depletion, highlighting the importance of considering extreme scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Physical risk; flood scenario; banking stress test; climate risk analysis |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/197 |
| By: | Mahdum Adanan |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:679 |
| By: | Strombotne, Kiersten (Boston University); Day, Sophia (NYC Dept. of Health and Mental Hygiene); Konty, Kevin (NYC Dept. of Health and Mental Hygiene); Fletcher, Jason M. (University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | Children form social ties along dimensions of gender and race/ethnicity, and thus may differ greatly in exposure to peer health and also in reactivity to peer influence. This paper estimates heterogeneity in the peer effects of obesity along dimensions of gender, race/ethnicity, and socio-economic status for grade-mates within schools. Using data from the New York City (NYC) FITNESSGRAM initiative on over 1.6 million children in grades K-8, we find that males and females are equally responsive to peer effects. We estimate larger differences by race/ethnicity, immigration status and home language, but find no statistically significant differences in peer effects by socio-economic status. Taken together, these findings suggest that policies that reduce obesity could simultaneously widen some existing health disparities due to the heterogeneities in peer effects we uncover. Understanding the dynamics of peer influence is essential for designing policies and programs that seek to leverage social interactions for better health outcomes. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, children, adolescents, obesity, health disparities |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17292 |
| By: | Pamadi Wibowo; Wawan Munawar |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3674 |
| By: | Schroeder, Wolfgang; Ziblatt, Daniel; Bochert, Florian |
| Abstract: | Seit Jahren wird von Bundespolitikerinnen und -politikern aller etablierten Parteien eine Kooperation mit der AfD strikt ausgeschlossen - eine sogenannte "Brandmauer" zur AfD errichtet. Zugleich wird vermehrt über Fälle berichtet, in denen diese Brandmauer bröckelt und etablierte Parteien mit der AfD auf kommuner Ebene kooperieren. Vor diesem Hintergrund untersucht unsere Studie die Sitzungen der kommunalen Volksvertretungen auf Kreisebene in allen ostdeutschen Bundesländern von Mitte 2019 bis Mitte 2024. Die Analyse von insgesamt 2452 Sitzungen, in denen die AfD insgesamt 2348 Anträge stellte, zeigt, dass in 484 Fällen inhaltlich mit der AfD kooperiert wurde. Dies entspricht in etwa einem Anteil von 20, 6% der von der AfD gestellten Anträge. In etwas mehr als der Hälfte der Fälle (244) waren es jeweils mindestens fünf nicht-AfD-Abgeordnete, die einem Antrag oder Kandidaten der AfD ihre Stimmen gaben. Dies entspricht in etwa einem Anteil von 10, 2%. Regional lassen sich dabei erhebliche Unterschiede erkennen, wobei es nicht unbedingt die Regionen mit der stärksten AfD-Präsenz sind, in denen die meiste Kooperation stattfindet. Inhaltlich sind es nicht die kontroversen, bundespolitischen Themen wie Asyl oder Sicherheit, mit denen sich die AfD die Kooperation etablierter Parteien sichert, sondern vielmehr die infrastrukturbezogenen Aufgaben, die im unmittelbaren Zuständigkeitsbereich der jeweiligen Parlamente liegen, wie z.B. Verkehrsthemen. Insgesamt zeigt unsere Studie, dass die umstrittene Brandmauer, der vielfach nachgesagt wird, dass sie auf kommunaler Ebene längst nicht mehr bestehe, in den letzten fünf Jahren zwar durchaus Risse bekommen hat, aber insgesamt weitaus stabiler ist, als vielfach vermutet wird. Am Ende des Papiers diskutieren wir vier denkbare strategische Möglichkeiten für den zukünftigen Umgang mit dem Konzept der Brandmauer." |
| Keywords: | Populismus, Radikalismus, Politische Partei, Kooperation, Kommunale Selbstverwaltung, Abstimmung, Ostdeutschland |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbtod:303036 |
| By: | Nicoletta Batini; Luigi Durand |
| Abstract: | We build a two-block general equilibrium model that accounts for Nature by including, alongside man-made capital, natural capital defined as a variety of ecosystem goods and services essential to economic activity. Natural capital is unevenly distributed, displays critical thresholds or ’tipping points’ beyond which the ecosystem is irreversibly altered, and contributes to the evolution of productivity. We show that: (1) when natural capital is abundant, it is optimal to deplete some and conserve some, but less depletion should occur if there is a critical threshold beyond which Nature is irreversibly altered; (2) subsidizing the conservation of Nature makes long-run growth stronger and more sustainable in Nature-rich and Nature-poor countries alike, but implies lower consumption globally in the short run. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1014 |
| By: | Benfica, Rui; Hossain, Marup; Davis, Kristin E.; Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Azzarri, Carlo |
| Abstract: | Sustainable agrifood systems (AFS) provide food security and nutrition without compromising economic, social, and environmental objectives. However, many AFS generate substantial unaccounted for environmental, social, and health costs. True cost accounting (TCA) is one method that adds direct and external costs to find the “true cost†of food production, which can inform policies to reduce externalities or adjust market prices. We find that for Kenya— considering the entire food system, including crops, livestock, fishing, and value addition sectors at the national level—external costs represent 35 percent of the output value. Social costs account for 73 percent of the total external costs, while environmental costs are 27 percent. In contrast, in Viet Nam, where total external costs represent 15 percent of the output value, the environmental costs (75 percent) dominate social costs. At the subnational level, in the three Kenyan counties (Kisumu, Vihiga, and Kajiado) covered by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Nature-Positive Solutions (NATURE+), external costs (or the true cost gap) represent about 30 percent of all household crop production costs. Those external costs are overwhelmingly dominated by social (84 percent) over environmental (16 percent) externalities. In Viet Nam's Sa Pa and Mai Son districts, external costs represent about 24 percent of all household crop production costs. Environmental externalities (61 percent) are greater than social ones (39 percent). In Kenya, forced labor is the main social (and overall) external impact driven by factors ranging from "less severe" financial coercion to "more severe" forms of physical coercion. Land occupation is the most important environmental impact, resulting from occupation of lands for cultivation rather than conservation, while underpayment (low wages) and low profits are important social costs that are closely associated with the prevailing gender wage gap and occurrence of harassment. Soil degradation is the only other environmental impact, linked with the use of inorganic fertilizers (60 percent of households) and pesticides (36 percent). In Viet Nam, land occupation is the most important external impact, followed by soil degradation and contributions to climate change, primarily due to widespread use of inorganic fertilizers (98 percent of households) and pesticides (93 percent). Underpayment and insufficient income are significant social costs, followed by the gender wage gap and child labor. Crop production systems in Kenya exhibit relatively high labor-related costs compared with nonlabor inputs, with relatively lower intensity in the use of inorganic fertilizer and other chemical inputs and lower crop yields. This production system leads to relatively greater social externalities. Conversely, crop yields in Viet Nam are significantly higher than those in Kenya, likely due to the extensive use of inorganic fertilizers representing the largest direct cost component and leading to a relatively higher level of environmental externalities. Because external costs represent a significant part of the total cost of food production, policy and investments to minimize these costs are essential to a nature-positive AFS that is environmentally sustainable and socially equitable. Strategies to reach this goal include regulatory adjustments, investments in resource efficient infrastructure and technologies that minimize costs, and the prudent management of environmentally impactful production inputs and factors. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; environment; food security; sustainability; true cost accounting; food production; Africa; South-eastern Asia; Asia; Eastern Africa; Kenya; Vietnam |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2269 |
| By: | Picchio, Matteo (Marche Polytechnic University); van Ours, Jan C. (Erasmus School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | High temperatures can have a negative effect on workplace safety for a variety of reasons. Discomfort and reduced concentration caused by heat can lead to workers making mistakes and injuring themselves. Discomfort can also be an incentive for workers to report an injury that they would not have reported in the absence of heat. We investigate how temperature affects injuries of professional tennis players in outdoor singles matches. We find that for men injury rates increase with ambient temperatures. For women, there is no effect of high temperatures on injuries. Among male tennis players, there is some heterogeneity in the temperature effects, which seem to be influenced by incentives. Specifically, when a male player is losing at the beginning of a crucial (second) fourth set in (best-of-three) best-of-five matches, the temperature effect is much larger than when he is winning. In best-offive matches, which are more exhausting, this effect is age-dependent and stronger for older players. |
| Keywords: | climate change, temperatures, tennis, injuries, health |
| JEL: | J24 J81 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17272 |
| By: | Akhmadi; Sri Budiyati |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3703 |
| By: | Kolev-Schaefer, Galina; Sultan, Samina |
| Abstract: | Trotz des andauernd protektionistischen Kurses der US-Handelspolitik in den letzten Jahren und des Aufstiegs Chinas zur globalen Wirtschaftsmacht bleiben die deutsche und die US-amerikanische Wirtschaft eng miteinander verflochten. Dies gilt umso mehr, als die Vernetzung und die Rolle der Auslandsniederlassungen beim Austausch von Waren, Know-how und Dienstleistungen als Grundbausteine der zukünftigen Globalisierung an Bedeutung gewinnen. Selbst die dominante Position Chinas im globalen Warenhandel hat in den letzten Jahren teilweise etwas nachgelassen, getrieben von Decoupling-Tendenzen und der Bestrebung von einzelnen Unternehmen und ganzen Branchen, ihre internationalen Lieferketten zu diversifizieren und einseitige Abhängigkeiten abzubauen. Von dieser Entwicklung profitieren auch die transatlantischen Beziehungen. So waren die USA selbst beim Warenhandel (Summe aus Im- und Exporten) in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2024 der wichtigste Handelspartner Deutschlands - zum ersten Mal seit dem Jahr 2015. Während China trotz sinkender Importzahlen nach wie vor der wichtigste Lieferant von Importwaren bleibt, sind die USA mit großem Abstand der wichtigste Abnehmer von Exportprodukten Made in Germany. Um mehr als zwei Drittel sind die deutschen US-Exporte höher als die nach China. Die herausragende Bedeutung der USA als Exportzielland variiert von Branche zu Branche: Der US-Anteil an den deutschen Warenexporten ist zweistellig für die Automobilindustrie, den Maschinenbau und auch für die Pharmaindustrie, die fast ein Viertel der eigenen Exporte in den USA absetzt. Doch auch Exportprodukte wie Datenverarbeitungsgeräte, elektronische und optische Erzeugnisse sowie elektrische Ausrüstungen werden zu fast einem Zehntel Richtung USA verschifft. Ein Blick innerhalb Deutschlands bestätigt die enorme Bedeutung der USA für die meisten Bundesländer. In sechs Bundesländern liegt der US-Anteil an den Warenexporten über 10 Prozent, nur in Sachsen-Anhalt ist er unter 5 Prozent. In anderen wichtigen Aspekten der Wirtschaftspartnerschaft zeigt sich der Vorsprung der USA im Vergleich zu anderen Ländern noch deutlicher. So exportiert Deutschland dreieinhalbmal mehr Dienstleistungen in die USA als nach China. Die Dienstleistungsimporte Deutschlands aus den USA sind sogar fünfmal höher als jene aus China. Darüber hinaus sind die Investitionsbeziehungen zwischen Deutschland und den USA deutlich enger - und auch weniger einseitig - als zwischen Deutschland und China. Im Jahr 2022 entfielen etwa 27, 5 Prozent aller deutschen Direktinvestitionsbestände auf die USA, verglichen mit 7, 9 Prozent für China. Die Branchenverteilung ist dabei relativ breit für die deutschen Direktinvestitionen in den USA, während sich jene in China vor allem auf die Autoindustrie und die Herstellung von elektrischen Ausrüstungen konzentrieren. Zudem stammten 10, 7 Prozent aller Direktinvestitionen in Deutschland aus den USA, wohingegen nur 0, 7 Prozent aus China kamen. Diese und andere Zahlen bestätigen die hervorragenden Voraussetzungen für eine enge transatlantische Zusammenarbeit auch nach der US-Präsidentschaftswahl im November. Ein gemeinsamer transatlantischer Ansatz zur Gestaltung der globalen Wirtschaftsordnung ist unverzichtbar, einschließlich der Bewältigung klimapolitischer Herausforderungen, gemeinsamer Initiativen im Umgang mit globalen Überkapazitäten, der Technologiekooperation und der Zukunft der World Trade Organization (WTO). Zwar dürfte die Kooperationsbereitschaft der USA entscheidend vom Wahlausgang abhängen. Doch die Europäische Union (EU) muss in allen Fällen selbstbewusst auftreten, eine Palette von gut ausgewählten Antworten auf drohende neue Konflikte bereithalten und auch Spielräume für Verhandlungslösungen definieren, um die Zukunft der transatlantischen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen zu sichern. |
| Abstract: | Despite the persistent protectionist course of US trade policy in recent years and China's rise as a global economic power, the German and US economies remain closely intertwined. This is all the more true as interconnectivity and the role of foreign affiliates in the exchange of goods, know-how and services are becoming increasingly important building blocks of future globalisation. Even China's dominant position in global trade in goods has weakened somewhat in recent years, driven by decoupling tendencies and the efforts of individual companies and entire industries to diversify their international supply chains and reduce one-sided dependencies. Transatlantic relations have benefitted from this development. In the first half of 2024, the USA was Germany's most important trading partner in goods trade (sum of im- and exports) - for the first time since 2015. While China remains the most important supplier of imported goods despite falling import figures, the USA is by far the most important customer of the German export industry. German exports to the USA are more than two-thirds higher than those to China. The outstanding importance of the USA as an export destination varies from sector to sector: the US share in German goods exports is doubledigit for the automotive industry, machinery and also the pharmaceutical industry, which sells almost a quarter of its own exports to the USA. Furthermore, almost a tenth of German export products such as data processing equipment, electronic and optical devices and electrical equipment are shipped to the USA. A look within Germany confirms the tremendousimportance of the USA for most of the federal states. In six of them the US share of goods exports is over 10 per cent, only in Saxony-Anhalt is it under 5 per cent. In other important aspects of the economic partnership, the USA also has a clear lead over other countries. Germany exports three and a half times more services to the USA than to China. Germany's service imports from the USA are even five times higher than those from China. In addition, investment relations between Germany and the USA are significantly closer - and also less one-sided - than between Germany and China. In 2022, the USA accounted for about 27.5 per cent of all German foreign direct investment stocks, compared to 7.9 per cent for China. The industry distribution is relatively broad for German foreign direct investments in the USA, while investment in China is mainly concentrated in the automotive industry and the manufacture of electrical equipment. On the other hand, 10.7 per cent of all foreign direct investments in Germany came from the USA, whereas only 0.7 per cent came from China. These and other figures confirm the excellent conditions for close transatlantic cooperation even after the US presidential elections in November. A common transatlantic approach to shaping the global economic order is essential, including tackling climate policy challenges, joint initiatives to deal with global overcapacities, technology cooperation and the future of the WTO. The willingness of the USA to cooperate is likely to depend crucially on the outcome of the upcoming elections. In any case, however the EU must act with confidence, have a range of well-chosen responses to deal with looming new conflicts, and also define scope for negotiated solutions in order to secure the future of transatlantic economic relations. |
| Keywords: | Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Interdisziplinäre Forschung, Deutschland, USA |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:303045 |
| By: | Buchheim, Lukas (TU Dortmund); Link, Sebastian (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Möhrle, Sascha (Ifo Institute for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through—the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation—is small: 0.11–0.17 for firms and 0.03–0.07 for employees. Utilizing variation in the coverage length of collective agreements, we estimate that passthrough at the intensive margin is 1.4-2 times larger than average pass-through, highlighting the importance of wage rigidities for pass-through. Pass-through also rises with the bargaining power of employees. At the extensive margin, expected inflation has little effect on additional wage negotiations. |
| Keywords: | wage expectations, inflation, pass-through, wage-price spirals, bargaining, firms, employees, survey data |
| JEL: | E24 E31 D84 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17269 |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | To help make credit more available and affordable for borrowers, the federal government provides assistance in the form of loans and loan guarantees. Such credit assistance—which is projected to consist of $228 billion in new direct loans and $1.6 trillion in new loan guarantees in 2025, at an estimated cost of $2 billion—exposes the federal government to financial risk. In some cases, the gov¬ernment shares that risk with private lenders or investors. |
| JEL: | H80 H81 M40 M48 |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:59408 |
| By: | Esmeralda Arranhado; Lágida Barbosa; João A. Bastos |
| Abstract: | We examine an individual-level poverty measure for Benin using cross-sectional data. Since our measure is defined within the interval [0, 1], we combine fractional regression models and machine learning models for fractions to examine the factors influencing multidimensional poverty measures and to predict poverty levels. Our approach illustrates the potential of combining parametric models, that inform on the statistical significance and variable interactions, with SHapley Additive ex- Planations (SHAP) and Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) plots obtained from a random forest. Results highlight the importance of addressing gender inequalities in education, particularly by increasing access to female education, to effectively reduce poverty. Furthermore, natural conditions arising from agroecological zones are significant determinants of multidimensional poverty, which underscores the need for climate change policies to address poverty in the long term, especially in countries heavily reliant on agriculture. Other significant determinants of welfare include household size, employment sector, and access to financial accounts. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional Poverty; Benin; Fractional regression model; Machine learning; SHAP values; ALE plots. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03432024 |
| By: | Grewenig, Elisabeth; Römer, Daniel; Rode, Johannes |
| Abstract: | Der Anteil der Treibhausgasemissionen durch den Verkehrssektor ist in Deutschland in den letzten Jahren auf über 20% gestiegen. Dabei spielt der Unternehmensfuhrpark eine zentrale Rolle: Zwei Drittel der Pkw-Neuzulassungen sind gewerblich – und auch im Nutzfahrzeugbereich dominieren Unternehmen. Der Weg zur Dekarbonisierung ist in großen Teilen klar: Elektromotoren verursachen keine lokalen Emissionen und sind mittlerweile auch effizienter. Aktuelle Auswertungen des KfW-Klimabarometers betrachten den Unternehmensfuhrpark im Jahr 2023. Sie zeigen, dass in Deutschland bereits jeder fünfte Pkw der Unternehmen elektrisch fährt – deutlich mehr als im Vorjahr. Elektrisch betriebene Nutzfahrzeuge sind dagegen kaum verbreitet. Damit die Elektrifizierung nachhaltig Fahrt aufnimmt, bedarf es kontinuierlicher Anreize, insbesondere für Nutzfahrzeuge. Mögliche Ansatzpunkte sind zinsgünstige Förderkredite, Zuschüsse, verlässlich ansteigende CO2-Preise und die Befreiung der Stromer von der Lkw-Maut. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149471 |
| By: | Olena Kostyshyna; Luba Petersen |
| Abstract: | We use a new Canadian household survey to examine how inflation uncertainty influences inflation expectations and spending. Through randomized information interventions, we provide inflation statistics with or without second moments, creating variations in households' inflation uncertainty. All information types effectively lower inflation expectations and uncertainty. While communicating inflation uncertainty does not affect expectations or uncertainty levels, it increases the probability assigned to expected inflation near communicated ranges. Using Nielsen IQ Homescanner data, we find that higher inflation expectations and uncertainty reduce household spending on goods. Communicating inflation statistics with ranges increases spending by lowering expectations and reducing uncertainty. |
| JEL: | C93 D84 E59 E7 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32939 |
| By: | Andrew Glover; Jose Mustre-del-Rio |
| Abstract: | In the late 1990s, nearly 7 percent of young college graduates moved across state lines every year. These workers enjoyed 30 percent higher earnings three years after moving relative to similar stayers, but their gains were not immediate, amounting to only 7 percent in the first year post-move. By the mid-2010s, mobility fell by more than half, and average earnings gains among movers fell and became more front-loaded. At the same time, debt increased among all young college graduates. We propose a model of geographic mobility with incomplete markets, where moving to a new state can deliver earnings gains that are either front- or back-loaded. Incomplete markets and high interest rates on debt reduce workers’ acceptance of back-loaded opportunities, even if they have the same present-discounted increase in earnings as front-loaded opportunities. We find that lower potential gains account for most of the decline in mobility across periods, but that the lower initial wealth of young college graduates also reduced their mobility. The wealth effect on mobility is especially strong for poor individuals, so wealth changes generate an endogenous increase in income inequality later in the life cycle. Consistently, we find that tax-financed debt forgiveness policies generate higher mobility and earnings growth for low-wealth individuals and are, on average, welfare-increasing. |
| Keywords: | education; consumer economics; macroeconomic activity |
| JEL: | D60 E21 E44 |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:98815 |
| By: | Maida, Agata (Università degli Studi di Milano); Pezone, Vincenzo (Tilburg University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of CEO pay disclosure on wage distribution by exploiting a 1998 reform requiring Italian publicly listed companies to disclose top executives' compensation. In firms where CEOs disclose high total compensation, the top 5 percent and 1 percent of the within-firm wage distribution rise substantially. Instead, the effect on average wages is small and only marginally significant. As a result, wage inequality increases. These effects are stronger for workers with low experience or located in the main region of the firm's operations. Moreover, they are driven by changes in workers' bargaining power, rather than by sorting. |
| Keywords: | CEO compensation, wage disclosure, income inequality, wage bargaining |
| JEL: | J31 D63 D9 M12 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17243 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:1576 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:2381 |
| By: | Mario Ghossoub; Michael B. Zhu; Wing Fung Chong |
| Abstract: | We study Pareto optimality in a decentralized peer-to-peer risk-sharing market where agents' preferences are represented by robust distortion risk measures that are not necessarily convex. We obtain a characterization of Pareto-optimal allocations of the aggregate risk in the market, and we show that the shape of the allocations depends primarily on each agent's assessment of the tail of the aggregate risk. We quantify the latter via an index of probabilistic risk aversion, and we illustrate our results using concrete examples of popular families of distortion functions. As an application of our results, we revisit the market for flood risk insurance in the United States. We present the decentralized risk sharing arrangement as an alternative to the current centralized market structure, and we characterize the optimal allocations in a numerical study with historical flood data. We conclude with an in-depth discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of a decentralized insurance scheme in this setting. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.05103 |
| By: | NARAZANI Edlira (European Commission - JRC); RISCADO Sara; WEMANS Lara |
| Abstract: | In the last decade, two major disruptions – the Great Recession and the Covid sanitary crisis – hit the world economy and gave rise to a battery of government measures. In Portugal, after the fiscal consolidation efforts implemented to tackle the severe sovereign debt crisis that accompanied the Great Recession, some restrictive fiscal measures were reversed. Throughout and after the pandemic crisis, fiscal measures maintained their expansionary nature, with reinforcements to child benefits and income tax cuts. This paper quantifies the distributional and labour market impacts of policy changes implemented on the income tax system and on the child benefit in Portugal in 2022 and 2023. First-order effects of these measures, quantified using the EUROMOD microsimulation model, reveal that changes to the income tax schedule exhibit a regressive pattern, whereas those affecting the minimum untaxed income were more evenly distributed. In contrast, the child benefit reinforcements show a progressive impact. Employing EUROLAB, a behavioural labour supply and demand model, we find that labour supply responses are relatively modest, due to the small direct impacts of the measures on disposable income. Overall, labour supply, both in terms of hours of work and participation, reacts positively to the tax breaks but negatively to the reinforcement of the child benefit, with this negative reaction being concentrated on specific income and gender groups, such as single parents with children or families in lower income quintiles. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202406 |
| By: | Ali Merali |
| Abstract: | This paper derives 'scaling laws' -- empirical relationships between the amount of training compute used for a Large Language Model (LLM) and its performance -- for economic outcomes. In a preregistered experiment, 300 professional translators completed 1800 tasks with access to one of thirteen LLMs with differing model training compute sizes (or a control). Our results show that model scaling substantially raises productivity: for every 10x increase in model compute, translators completed tasks 12.3% quicker, received 0.18 s.d. higher grades, and earned 16.1% more per minute (including bonus payments). Further, the gains from model scaling are much higher for lower-skilled workers who gain a 4x larger improvement in task completion speed. These results imply further frontier model scaling -- which is currently estimated at 4x increase per year -- may have significant economic implications. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.02391 |
| By: | Enzo Cerletti; Magdalena Cortina; Alejandra Inzunza; Felipe Martínez; Patricio Toro |
| Abstract: | The policies adopted in Chile to mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic stand out for their magnitude: they implied an increase in the liquidity of the household sector of 29% of the 2019 GDP in an interval of 18 months. We use the 2021 Chilean Household Financial Survey to assess the impact of the pandemic and the massive liquidity shock generated by the policy response on financial decisions and the financial situation of Chilean households. We find that households used the additional liquidity to recover their consumption levels, reduce debt, and accumulate liquid assets. Once the support measures were phased out, households retained buffers, allowing them to maintain a high level of expenditure despite unfavorable macroeconomic changes. Finally, we document that the ultimate effect of the implemented policies was a deterioration in households' financial conditions, particularly for those with lower incomes. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1008 |
| By: | Palmira Permata Bachtiar |
| Keywords: | overseas migration, governance, decentralization |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:460 |
| By: | Buhmann, Mara (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Pohlan, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Roth, Duncan H.W. (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Temporary economic shocks can have enduring effects on individuals and their career trajectories. This paper investigates the labour market effects of the Covid- 19 pandemic on newly unemployed individuals, the underlying mechanisms as well as occupation-specific effect heterogeneity. The results indicate long-lasting earnings losses due to the pandemic, which can be explained by a decline in employment in the short run and a decline in wages in the longer run. We further find that the lower the lockdown work ability of a worker's previous occupation, the greater the adverse effects of the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | economic shocks, COVID-19, unemployment, worker careers, occupations |
| JEL: | J23 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17268 |
| By: | Mezili Imad (Université d'Oran 1 Ahmed Ben Bella [Oran]); Belkhadem Ibtissem (Ecole Supérieure d'Economie d'Oran (ex. EPSECG Oran)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the alignment between the university education at ISTA Oran and labor market needs in Algeria. The high unemployment rate among Algerian university graduates points to a general problematic of mismatch between education and jobs. The main hypothesis is that there is a gap between the educational services and actual labor market requirements. The methodology used is a survey of 47 ISTA teachers. Overall, the study highlights the need for better training-employment alignment to positively impact graduates' employability. |
| Keywords: | Skills labor market innovative pedagogy university training JEL Classification Codes: J21 J24 A22 I23, Skills, labor market, innovative pedagogy, university training JEL Classification Codes: J21, J24, A22, I23 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684571 |
| By: | Bargain, Olivier; Jara, H. Xavier; Rivera, David |
| Abstract: | To finance increased public spending and social programs, Latin America's tax systems need to develop further. Yet taxation can reduce the tax base by discouraging formal employment. Evidence on the intensity of the problem is limited and tends to focus on specifically large reforms of the tax system. Conversely, and to improve external validity, we study whether routine changes in tax policies also alter labor market formalization. Our approach is based on grouped-data estimations of formal employment responses to policy changes. We exploit tax variation across three countries (Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia) and three periods (2008, 2014/15, 2019). We use precise calculations of counterfactual tax burdens when moving from informal to formal jobs, i.e. formalization tax rates (FTRs). For most countries and pairs of years, FTRs have a negative and significant effect on formal employment, particularly when wages are held constant across periods – in order to extract the pure policy effect – and in a series of sensitivity checks. |
| Keywords: | taxation; benefits; labor supply; informality |
| JEL: | H24 H31 J24 J40 |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125368 |
| By: | Preis, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Researchers regularly attempt to identify individual housing units as either owner-occupied or renter-occupied. But the data sources available to do so are rarely purpose-built for answering that question. This paper explores the most common approaches used in the literature to identify rental properties in the United States, namely by identifying properties based on characteristics listed within a tax assessment database. This study shows the possible problems associated with the current approaches to identify rental properties based on homestead exemptions or address matching. An underutilized data source — local rental registries — are introduced as a possible alternative in the cities that have them. Differences between rental registries and tax assessment databases are discussed, and the number, count, and type of rental units are compared in five cities. I identify possible sources of disagreement between data sources. This paper cautions researchers who opt to use tax assessment databases, or proprietary data sources, to identify rental units. |
| Date: | 2024–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:afzdx |
| By: | Roy, Aparna; Sekher, TV |
| Abstract: | In the ‘Care Work and Care Jobs for the Future of Decent Work’ report, 2018, estimates from 64 countries show that 16.4 billion hours per day were spent in unpaid care work. Women contributed to over three-fourths (76.2%) of this total. This unpaid labor is equivalent to 2.0 billion people working full-time (40 hours per week) without pay, representing 66.9% of the world's working-age population. The Indian System of National Accounts (SNA), like other countries, does not include the value of home-produced services in the national accounts production boundary. Especially in the case of an economy like India, where the labor force participation rate of women remains low and most of their work is invisible and unaccounted for, accounting for those home-produced services and creating extended SNA accounts hold extreme significance. The aim of this article is to estimate the ‘unpaid care work’ (household services unaccounted for in SNA) done by men and women both in time units and then monetise it to compute the economic value of this ‘unpaid care work’. Data Sources used for the study are the Time Use Survey 2019 and the Periodic Labour Force Survey 2019-20. The methodology followed in the creation of NTTA in this study was developed by Gretchen Donehower. Results show that men specialize in paid work, whereas women specialize in unpaid care work. Leisure and education seem to show very little gender variation in time use. There is a huge gender variation in the production age profiles of unpaid care work. The total time spent on indirect care is more than direct care for all ages. It is observed that the total time spent on unpaid work peaks from around 25 to 40 years of age for both genders.. While men spend significantly less time in indirect care activities than women, within indirect care activities, men spend more time in ‘do-it-yourself activities’ of improving, maintaining, and repairing own dwelling, personal and household goods, vehicles, pet care, and related activities. On the other hand, cooking is the indirect care activity that takes up the majority of women’s time.The hours spent on direct care is higher for women than men. Time spent in direct care increases rapidly around age 20 and peaks at age 27 by spending around 11 hours per week. There is no gender gap observed in consumption of unpaid care work. Calculating the net time transfers of unpaid care work points out that women are net givers of unpaid care work, and men are net beneficiaries of unpaid care work. To account for the value of unpaid care work activities produced in homes, following the methodology proposed by Donehower (2019), by applying the input pricing approach, we find out the value of unpaid care work by assigning wages to different unpaid care activities. Age profiles of various activities in monetary terms, rescaled using per capita GDP show that all monetary age profiles take up similar shape of curves as time age profiles. It also reveals that children at age 0 consume unpaid care work to level equivalent to 250 percent of per capita GDP. The prime contributors to household economy is women and at all ages they are the net givers of unpaid care work. While the results are descriptive, the scope this study puts forward is huge. The accounting for unpaid care work for 2019 is merely the first step to initiating much- focused but more inclusive interventions to approach unpaid care work production and the individuals involved in it. With revisions in the System of National Accounts, the importance of accounting of the unpaid household services, and thus creating extended accounts are paramount. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:wgt2r |
| By: | Busso, Matias (Inter-American Development Bank); Montaño, Sebastián (University of Maryland); Muñoz-Morales, Juan S. (IÉSEG School of Management); Pope, Nolan G. (University of Maryland) |
| Abstract: | Teacher quality is a key factor in improving student academic achievement. As such, educational policymakers strive to design systems to hire the most effective teachers. This paper examines the effects of a national policy reform in Colombia that established a merit-based teacher-hiring system intended to enhance teacher quality and improve student learning. Implemented in 2005 for all public schools, the policy ties teacher-hiring decisions to candidates' performance on an exam evaluating subject-specific knowledge and teaching aptitude. The implementation of the policy led to many experienced contract teachers being replaced by high exam-performing novice teachers. We find that though the policy sharply increased pre-college test scores of teachers, it also decreased the overall stock of teacher experience and led to sharp decreases in students' exam performance and educational attainment. Using a difference-in-differences strategy to compare the outcomes of students from public and private schools over two decades, we show that the hiring reform decreased students' performance on high school exit exams by 8 percent of a standard deviation, and reduced the likelihood that students enroll in and graduate from college by more than 10 percent. The results underscore that relying exclusively on specific ex ante measures of teacher quality to screen candidates, particularly at the expense of teacher experience, may unintentionally reduce students' learning gains. |
| Keywords: | teachers, teaching experience, teacher screening, Colombia, test scores, college enrollment |
| JEL: | I25 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17294 |
| By: | Forth, John (City University London); Bryson, Alex (University College London); Phan, Van (University of the West of England, Bristol); Ritchie, Felix (University of the West of England, Bristol); Singleton, Carl (University of Stirling); Stokes, Lucy (Competition and Markets Authority); Whittard, Damian (University of the West of England, Bristol) |
| Abstract: | We gratefully acknowledge funding from ADR UK (Administrative Data Research UK) and the Economic and Social Research Council (Grant No. ES/T013877/1). The work is based on analysis of the research-ready datasets from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) (ONS, 2024a), Business Structure Database (ONS, 2024b) and Annual Population Survey (ONS, 2023a), accessed through the ONS Secure Research Service. The use of the ONS data in this work does not imply the endorsement of the ONS or data owners in relation to the interpretation or analysis of the statistical data. This work uses research datasets which may not exactly reproduce National Statistics aggregates. National Statistics follow consistent statistical conventions over time and cannot be compared to these findings. We thank Susan Purdon, Eduin Latimer, and participants at the 2023 Work and Pensions Economics Group Conference, 2023 Low Pay Commission Research Symposium, and 2024 Annual Conference of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) for valuable comments. |
| Keywords: | low pay, survey weighting, attrition, non-response bias, earnings, national living wage |
| JEL: | C81 C83 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17291 |
| By: | Ignacia Cuevas; Thomas Bourany; Gustavo González |
| Abstract: | Supply chain uncertainty is becoming increasingly frequent, generating unpredictability for firms that need to source inputs to produce. We aim to understand how this uncertainty affects firms’ sourcing decisions. To answer this, and following Antràs et al.(2017), we write a multi-country sourcing model where firms’ self-select into importing based on productivity, cost minimization, and trade uncertainty that can alter the cost of importing. Our findings reveal that, even in the presence of aggregate or idiosyncratic uncertainty, a pecking order emerges, with larger firms self-selecting into importing from a more extensive set of suppliers. Despite the quantitative significance of marginal cost reduction as the primary driver of firms’ sourcing decisions, risk introduces a nuanced dimension. Firm-specific risk introduces a positive option value associated with diversifying the set of suppliers. Meanwhile, aggregate uncertainty has a theoretically ambiguous impact, since it also affects the market demand. In our structural analysis, we estimate both aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty and fixed costs of sourcing using firm-level data from Chile. We then obtain a counterfactual using the change in aggregate uncertainty from 2020 to 2023 and find a positive relationship between the change in uncertainty and the change in both intensive and extensive margins. This research contributes to under-standing how firms navigate supply chain risk and make strategic sourcing decisions in the face of uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1018 |
| By: | Ann M. Furbush; Anna Josephson; Talip Kilic; Jeffrey D. Michler |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of livelihood diversification on food insecurity amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis uses household panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria in which the first round was collected immediately prior to the pandemic and extends through multiple rounds of monthly data collection during the pandemic. Using this pre- and post-outbreak data, and guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the causal effect of livelihood diversification on food insecurity. Our results do not support the hypothesis that livelihood diversification boosts household resilience. Though income diversification may serve as an effective coping mechanism for small-scale shocks, we find that for a disaster on the scale of the pandemic this strategy is not effective. Policymakers looking to prepare for the increased occurrence of large-scale disasters will need to grapple with the fact that coping strategies that gave people hope in the past may fail them as they try to cope with the future. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.02285 |
| By: | Wasim Ahmad; Mohammad Arshad Rahman; Suruchi Shrimali; Preeti Roy |
| Abstract: | This article develops multiple novel climate risk measures (or variables) based on the television news coverage by Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business, and examines how they affect the systematic and idiosyncratic risks of clean energy firms in the United States (US). The measures are built on climate related keywords and cover the volume of coverage, type of coverage (climate crisis, renewable energy, and government and human initiatives), and media sentiments. We show that an increase in the aggregate measure of climate risk, as indicated by coverage volume, reduces idiosyncratic risk while increasing systematic risk. When climate risk is segregated, we find that systematic risk is positively affected by the \textit{physical risk} of climate crises and \textit{transition risk} from government and human initiatives, but no such impact is evident for idiosyncratic risk. Additionally, we observe an asymmetry in risk behavior: negative sentiments tend to increase idiosyncratic risk and decrease systematic risk, while positive sentiments have no significant impact. This asymmetry persists even when considering print media variables, climate policy uncertainty, and analysis based on the COVID-19 period. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08701 |
| By: | Hiroyuki Fujiwara (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hiroyuki.fujiwara@boj.or.jp)) |
| Abstract: | The Flow of Funds Accounts (FFA) statistics are useful for understanding macroeconomic trends in the flow of funds and the financial structure of Japan. The Bank of Japan has compiled and published the FFA in Japan each fiscal year since 1953. For earlier years, stock tables prepared by researchers are available for the early Meiji period since 1871. This paper presents several representative series of Japan's long- term FFA since the Meiji period, and explains the transitions of the historical data against the background of changes in the economic structure, and the historical connectivity of the data arising from the review of compilation methods. It also reviews historical FFA statistics and the process of making necessary revisions. The main results obtained are as follows. Firstly, fluctuations in financial assets and liabilities and financial surplus or deficit (as ratio to nominal GDP) by sector during and shortly after World War II were much larger than in other periods, and shrank significantly after the war, resulting in a considerable resetting of the credit-debt relationship. Secondly, the credit aggregates and the net financial assets in recent years in the private sector, as well as the credit aggregates and the net financial liabilities in the public sector, have exceeded their pre-World War II peaks. Thirdly, the private sector's financial surplus and the public sector's financial deficit were larger at the time of the fiscal reform of 1877 in the early Meiji period and after the outbreak of the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1937 than in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Flow of Funds Accounts (FFA), Historical connectivity of the data, Ratio to nominal GDP, Stock and Flow tables, Credit Aggregates, Net Financial Assets, Financial Surplus or Deficit |
| JEL: | E51 G10 N15 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:24-e-08 |
| By: | Palmira Permata Bachtiar |
| Keywords: | migrant workers, overseas employment, PPTKIS |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:965 |
| By: | Rivard, Alexandre; Merkley, Eric; Stecula, Dominik (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | A key barrier to ensuring the growth of the housing supply is local opposition to development, often called NIMBYism (Not In My Back Yard). We use pre-registered studies on representative samples of Canadians and Americans to explore the values-based correlates of opposition to local housing development, as well as opposition to public policies designed to remedy the housing crisis. We find that nativism, racial resentment, and moral traditionalism are generally associated with opposition to local housing development, with traditionalism also associated with housing policy opposition. Free-market attitudes and egalitarianism are associated with support for housing policy, particularly when the policies are ideologically consistent. Support for affordable housing is concentrated among those with low racial resentment, traditionalism, nativism, and free-market support, and high levels of egalitarianism. |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8gkyv |
| By: | Vita Febriany; Edy Priyono |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:450 |
| By: | Ioana-Ancuta Iancu; Patrick Hendrick; Micu DDM Dan Doru; Adrian Cote |
| Abstract: | This research explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior and preferences related to household energy consumption through actions to fight climate change in Belgium, Romania, Italy, and Sweden. Using data from two Eurobarometer surveys conducted in 2019 and 2021, the study examines shifts in climate change perception, actions to combat climate change, and the influence of socio-economic and demographic variables on these actions. Depending on the country, the findings reveal significant pandemic-induced changes in public perceptions of climate change and personal actions to combat it. Age, gender, and education level were found to influence climate change actions. Financial constraints also significantly influenced the adoption of energy-efficient behaviors. Our research enriches existing knowledge by exploring the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change perceptions and actions across diverse European countries, shedding light on the interplay between global crises and sustainability. The research methodology, including chi-square tests, logistic regression, and effect size measurements, provides a robust framework for understanding how economic factors and consumer behaviors are contributing to the development of effective energy policies. |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/377982 |
| By: | Javier Espinosa; William N. Evans; David C. Phillips; Tim Spilde |
| Abstract: | A new wave of social service programs aims to build a pathway out of poverty by helping clients define their own goals and then supporting them flexibly and intensively over multiple years to meet those goals. We conduct a randomized controlled trial of one such program. Participants randomly assigned to intensive, holistic, wrap-around services have 10 percentage points higher employment rates after one year compared with a control group offered only help with an immediate need. Most of this effect appears to persist after programming ends. However, we find limited evidence that intensive, holistic services affect areas beyond employment, even when other areas of life are participants’ primary goals. We find some evidence that the program works by increasing hopefulness and agency among participants, which may be more useful in supporting labor force participation than in meeting other goals. |
| JEL: | D91 I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32911 |
| By: | Carter, Charles (University of Bath); Delaney, Judith M. (University of Bath); Papps, Kerry L. (University of Bradford) |
| Abstract: | We exploit a spatial discontinuity in the wages paid by the United Kingdom's National Health Service to examine how wages affect the duration of time a vacancy is advertised. NHS workers in inner London are mandated by law to be paid an extra 4.3% more than those who work in outer London. We use a regression discontinuity design and estimate an elasticity of duration with respect to wages of -6.3. This number is larger than reported by previous studies and suggests that firms can fill worker shortages faster by raising wages. This also highlights the importance this margin of worker recruitment when analysing firm search and job match. Our results are robust to various checks including a placebo test using fictitious borders and are robust to changes in the bandwidth and the duration measure. The estimates are similar across all occupational groups in the NHS and are not limited to jobs that require specific skills such as nurses and therapists. Our results provide evidence for policy makers which suggests that increasing the wages paid to NHS workers may lead to increased cost savings by reducing the need to hire expensive agency staff and may also lead to better health outcomes of the population through reduced staff shortages. |
| Keywords: | vacancy duration, wages, employer search |
| JEL: | J22 J23 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17273 |
| By: | Parrendah Adwoa Kpeli (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of religiosity on preventive measures during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, specifically on mask usage, vaccine administration, booster doses, and the probability of testing positive for COVID-19. This study employs an extensive, recurrent dataset from 2020 to 2022 to analye the behaviors of many religious groups, focusing specifically on the differences between born-again and non-born-again Protestants. The results indicate that born-again Protestants exhibit a lower propensity to adhere to preventive measures, such as mask-wearing and immunisations. In contrast, non-born-again Protestants and Catholics demonstrate a higher likelihood of compliance with these guidelines. Unsurprisingly, born-again Protestants exhibit an increased propensity for testing positive for COVID-19 and are, therefore, more likely to have contributed to its heightened spread in the US. This research is essential for understanding the relationship between religiosity and health behaviours, as it emphasises the significant influence of religious identity on public health outcomes. It provides new insights into adherence to health directives, addressing significant gaps in the research by distinguishing among religious subgroups, analysing various preventative behaviours, and monitoring changes over an extended period throughout the United States. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, religiosity, health behaviour |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fre:wpaper:49 |
| By: | Syaikhu Usman |
| Keywords: | regional autonomy, decentralization, local politics |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3669 |
| By: | Bulent Guler; Yasin Kürsat Önder; Temel Taskin (-) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies debt and default dynamics under alternative disclosure arrangements in a sovereign default model. The government can access both observable and hidden debt. We show, both theoretically and quantitatively, that when debt is not fully disclosed, the government does not internalize the full effects of hidden debt choices on bond prices, thereby reducing the cost of holding hidden debt. We find that switching to a full disclosure regime shifts the portfolio from hidden to observable debt, exacerbating the debt dilution problem. Thus, contrary to conventional wisdom, this switch generates welfare losses. |
| Keywords: | Hidden debt, Debt disclosure, Sovereign debt, Sovereign default, Sovereign-to- sovereign lending |
| JEL: | E31 F34 F45 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:24/1094 |
| By: | Hastuti |
| Keywords: | basic education, problems, innovation, institutions |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3752 |
| By: | HARIT, ADITYA |
| Abstract: | Stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana presents significant environmental and health challenges. This paper develops a Keynesian economic model to analyze the equilibrium between stubble burning and alternative methods, integrating the role of government intervention, central bank policies, and trade variables. By solving the model step by step, it provide insights into how fiscal and monetary policies can optimize social welfare and address externalities associated with stubble burning. |
| Keywords: | Stubble Burning, Cost Analysis, Economic Equilibrium, Alternate Policies, Decision Making, Environmental Impact, Farmer Behaviour |
| JEL: | C02 E0 E12 E50 H00 Q01 Q11 Q19 |
| Date: | 2024–09–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122164 |
| By: | Warwick J. McKibbin (Peterson Institute for International Economics; Australian National University); Megan Hogan (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores policies promoted by former president and now candidate Donald Trump that would potentially affect the global economy. We focus on immigration policy, trade, and erosion of the Federal Reserve Board's political independence. Each policy has differing macroeconomic and sectoral impacts on the United States and other countries. We find, however, that all the policies examined cause a decline in US production and employment, especially in trade-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture, as well as higher US inflation. The trade policies do little to improve the US trade balance; however, the erosion of Fed independence does so by causing capital outflows, a significant depreciation of the dollar, and higher unemployment toward the end of 2028, which worsen American living standards. Scenarios combining individual policies show that the changes cause a large inflationary impulse and a significant loss of employment (particularly in manufacturing and agriculture) in the US economy. The negative impact of a contraction in global trade is significant for countries that trade with the United States the most. The adverse effect is offset for some economies by the positive effects of an inflow of foreign capital that would otherwise have gone into the US economy. An online dashboard contains a full set of macroeconomic and sectoral results for all countries. The Peterson Institute for International Economics has no partisan goal in publishing this research. Our concerns are about the policies, not the candidate. Our objective is to educate policymakers and the public about the effects these policies would have on Americans and other people around the world. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, migration, deportations, central bank independence, China, Trump |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F17 F22 F37 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp24-20 |
| By: | Martin W Cripps |
| Abstract: | We propose a measure of learning efficiency for non-finite state spaces. We characterize the complexity of a learning problem by the metric entropy of its state space. We then describe how learning efficiency is determined by this measure of complexity. This is, then, applied to two models where agents learn high-dimensional states. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.14949 |
| By: | Peng Zhu; Yuante Li; Yifan Hu; Qinyuan Liu; Dawei Cheng; Yuqi Liang |
| Abstract: | Stock price prediction is a challenging problem in the field of finance and receives widespread attention. In recent years, with the rapid development of technologies such as deep learning and graph neural networks, more research methods have begun to focus on exploring the interrelationships between stocks. However, existing methods mostly focus on the short-term dynamic relationships of stocks and directly integrating relationship information with temporal information. They often overlook the complex nonlinear dynamic characteristics and potential higher-order interaction relationships among stocks in the stock market. Therefore, we propose a stock price trend prediction model named LSR-IGRU in this paper, which is based on long short-term stock relationships and an improved GRU input. Firstly, we construct a long short-term relationship matrix between stocks, where secondary industry information is employed for the first time to capture long-term relationships of stocks, and overnight price information is utilized to establish short-term relationships. Next, we improve the inputs of the GRU model at each step, enabling the model to more effectively integrate temporal information and long short-term relationship information, thereby significantly improving the accuracy of predicting stock trend changes. Finally, through extensive experiments on multiple datasets from stock markets in China and the United States, we validate the superiority of the proposed LSR-IGRU model over the current state-of-the-art baseline models. We also apply the proposed model to the algorithmic trading system of a financial company, achieving significantly higher cumulative portfolio returns compared to other baseline methods. Our sources are released at https://github.com/ZP1481616577/Baseline s\_LSR-IGRU. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08282 |
| By: | Anisha Sharma; Manisha Shah; Beata Łuczywek |
| Abstract: | Approximately 27.5 million individuals fell victim to forced labor in 2021. The Indian construction industry is particularly vulnerable to forced labor as workers experience excessive work hours, required work on rest days, and unpaid wages. Micro-contractors (MCs), who oversee worker environments, frequently struggle with their own financial constraints due to limited access to working capital. This study investigates whether alleviating MC liquidity constraints improves labor conditions for their workers in Bengaluru and Delhi by offering randomly selected MCs access to low-cost loans. Our findings reveal this intervention does not improve working conditions overall; in fact, some outcomes slightly worsen. However, workers employed by more educated and non-migrant treatment MCs experience significantly better labor conditions, underscoring important heterogeneity among MCs. This research offers new causal insights into efforts to combat forced labor. |
| JEL: | J21 J28 J81 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32912 |
| By: | Pamadi Wibowo; Wawan Munawar |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3721 |
| By: | Hastuti; Akhmadi |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3729 |
| By: | Bhatia, Mahak; Williams, Aled |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates job satisfaction among administrative and teaching faculties in higher educational institutions using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) tools. Key factors such as promotional opportunities, interpersonal relations, managerial support, and department of employment were identified as significant influencers of job satisfaction. Analytical results reveal that promotional opportunities and managerial support have the highest impact on job satisfaction, highlighting the need for strategic management of these factors to improve employee retention and efficiency. |
| Keywords: | educational institution; job satisfaction; managerial support; mathematical model; Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM); Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125389 |
| By: | Howell, Bronwyn; Potgieter, Petrus H. |
| Abstract: | This paper critically examines the effectiveness of spectrum set-asides as a policy tool to address distributional objectives in telecommunications across four diverse national contexts: Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, and the United States. Spectrum allocation is a crucial factor for the provision of telecommunications services and by extension, for citizens' participation in the digital economy. While economic theory supports auction-based allocations to maximize market efficiency, set-asides aim to facilitate access for disadvantaged groups or to stimulate competition. This study employs case studies from the selected countries to evaluate the impact of these set-asides on market efficiency, competition, and economic development. In Canada, set-asides intended to encourage new market entrants have led to higher spectrum costs and inefficiencies due to speculative behaviour. In New Zealand, allocations to the indigenous M¯aori population have raised concerns over long-term sector efficiency and capital accessibility. South Africa's policy mandates spectrum allocations to entities with significant ownership by historically disadvantaged persons, with mixed outcomes on market dynamics and social equity. Meanwhile, the United States' approach includes grants rather than direct spectrum set-asides, offering a potentially less distortive model. The findings suggest that while set-asides can support social objectives, they often introduce inefficiencies and fail to achieve the desired economic outcomes. The paper concludes by discussing the implications for future spectrum policy, advocating for careful consideration of the trade-offs between equity and efficiency in spectrum management. |
| Keywords: | Spectrum Allocation, Telecommunications Policy, Digital Economy, Market Efficiency, Competitive Supply, Economic Development, Regulatory Strategies |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302463 |
| By: | Tchibozo, Guy |
| Abstract: | Applying the Secondary Standard Deviations method, this book analyzes how to specify the stability or instability in resource allocation under long-term multidimensional public policies. The book proposes a method for characterizing the dynamics of resource allocation, as well as a calculation tool for operationalizing the proposed method. The book highlights the issues at stake in this field and underlines the research potential it holds. |
| Keywords: | Budget allocation – Budgetary arbitration – Budgetary process – Instability analysis, Policy analysis, Policy performance, Policy uncertainty, Public finance |
| JEL: | H50 H52 H61 H83 |
| Date: | 2024–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122189 |
| By: | Arindrajit Dube; Attila S. Lindner |
| Abstract: | This chapter surveys the literature on the impact of minimum wages on low-wage labor markets. We describe and critically review the empirical methods in the new minimum wage literature, particularly those leveraging quasi-experimental variation. We provide a quantitative overview of the most recent evidence on the employment and wage effects of the policy, while also exploring emerging research on its impact on other margins, including amenities, other inputs (such as capital and high-skilled workers), firm entry and exit, output prices and demand, profits, and productivity. This approach allows us to present a comprehensive picture of how minimum wage policies affect firms, workers, and labor markets. We also review the evidence on the policy’s impact on wage inequality and income distribution. Finally, we discuss how these effects can vary depending on the economic context and the level of a country’s development. |
| JEL: | J20 J30 J8 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32878 |
| By: | Amado Morales, Laura G. (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | During the Covid-19 pandemic, the Colombian government established the use of Digital Cash Transfers as a way to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis on the most poor and vulnerable of the Colombian population. Using data from Daviplata, one of the channels the government used to deliver the Digital Cash Transfers, I examine the effect that receiving these transfers had on financial deepening. My findings suggest that receiving a cash transfer via Daviplata increased financial deepening, through an increase in savings and an increase in the average number of transactions made by the user. However, this financial deepening did not translate into the access to a broader portfolio of financial products and services. Following an Difference-in-Differences Event Studies approach, I find that receiving a Digital Cash Transfer (DCT) had an effect on increasing savings in $24, 309, a quite large effect compared to average monthly savings for the targeted population. In terms of transactions, receiving a DCT via Daviplata had an effect of 0.1362, which represents an increase of about 20% compared to the number of average transactions made by the users. |
| Keywords: | Financial Inclusion; Financial Deepening; Cash Transfers; Digital Financial Institutions; Savings Behavior. |
| JEL: | G21 H53 I38 O16 |
| Date: | 2024–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021195 |
| By: | Schilirò, Daniele |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the challenges posed by high public debt and demographic decline in Italy. The interplay between these two factors threatens debt sustainability and hinders economic growth. A large debt stock constrains economic policy choices and limits national sovereignty. Meanwhile, population decline affects public spending and tends to exacerbate public debt, further complicating its sustainability. Possible policy options to counterbalance this issue include immigration, increasing labor force participation, pension reforms, fiscal consolidation, and investment in education targeted at the young population. |
| Keywords: | public debt; demography; declining population; sustainable debt; growth; immigration |
| JEL: | F3 H60 H63 J0 J2 J6 O40 O5 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121958 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report, early childhood, gender, teacher absenteeism, local government, EINRIP |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:737 |
| By: | Joan Hardjono |
| Keywords: | economic crisis, social safety net programs, labor force |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:804 |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir; Konchakov, Roman; Didenko, Dmitry |
| Abstract: | The previous research with incomplete data revealed that zemstva expenditure on education per capita were higher in regions with low level of education, but these spending did not make much of a difference – human capital in these regions remained relatively low (Popov, Konchakov, Didenko, 2024). The results reported in this paper provide additional and more rigorous proof that zemstva activities and the increase in their spending for education in 1897-1913 contributed to the spread of primary education and to the decline in the inequality of the distribution of human capital not only between the regions |
| Keywords: | educational attainment, school enrollment, inequality, land distribution, growth |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J24 N93 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122162 |
| By: | Brown, Anne (University of Oregon) |
| Abstract: | Personal vehicles positively impact outcomes ranging from employment to activity participation. Yet owning and maintaining a personal vehicle often proves challenging for households earning low incomes. Ride-hail and delivery platforms, which allow drivers to operate personal vehicles or rent vehicles by the week, may offer low-income workers new access to vehicles and alter the labor market landscape. This paper uses data from three focus groups and a national US survey of active Uber ride-hail drivers and couriers living in low-income households to examine 1) peoples’ motivations for driving on ride-hail or delivery platforms, 2) how driving impacts car access for low-income households, and 3) how driving fits into peoples’ broader work experiences. I find that ride-hail/delivery work is far from one-size-fits-all. Drivers use platform work to complement, supplement, or replace traditional work; in other words, people drive to fill gaps in employment, earn extra money on top of primary full-time work, or opt to drive over other jobs. The role driving plays in peoples’ lives often changes over time in response to variable household and financial needs. Drivers leverage the position’s flexibility, which is rarely found in employment opportunities available to people earning low-incomes. Drivers also report how platform work can both alleviate existing financial precarity and create new forms of economic uncertainty. For a subset of drivers, many of whom could not previously afford a personal car, ride-hail/delivery work—and particularly renting vehicles from company partners—appears an important avenue to access and maintain a personal vehicle. |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bdah6 |
| By: | Nishesh Chalise; Alice Kassens; William M. Rodgers; Nicole Summers-Gabr |
| Abstract: | An analysis examines the rates of U.S. young adults who aren’t in school or working—that is, “disconnected”—by where they live and by race and ethnicity. |
| Keywords: | young adults; education; labor markets |
| Date: | 2024–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98704 |
| By: | Campos, Nicolás (Inter-American Development Bank); Chalup, Miguel (Arizona State University); Mitnik, Oscar A. (Inter-American Development Bank); Urquidi, Manuel (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We provide quasi-experimental estimates of the impact of reforming public training programs offered in Paraguay on formal employment. The Programa de Apoyo a la Inserción Laboral (PAIL) revamped training program design in the country by offering courses aligned with the needs of the private sector, enhancing non-cognitive skills, and combining practical work within companies with classroom training. We combine administrative records—which contain detailed information on the employment history and characteristics of all formal workers in Paraguay—with an empirical strategy based on extensions of difference-in-differences models and synthetic difference-in-differences. We find that the probability of obtaining formal employment for women and men increases by 11 percentage points. Even two years after participating, the program has a lasting impact on women, an aspect not observed for men. Additionally, the program's impact is positive only in the metropolitan area of Asunción; the program is less effective in areas far from the urban center, especially for men. The observed results suggest that supply-side interventions are ineffective if no formal jobs are available for the beneficiaries. |
| Keywords: | public training programs, active labor market policies, formal employment |
| JEL: | J24 J38 J68 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17254 |
| By: | Arnone, Massimo; Leogrande, Angelo; Drago, Carlo; Costantiello, Alberto |
| Abstract: | This research explores how regional socioeconomic variables affect the perception of social trust and support networks (PYCC) in Italian regions, and examines the implications for public policy designed to strengthen social cohesion. This study examines the variable "People You Can Count On" (PYCC) from the ISTAT-BES dataset, focusing on its distribution across Italian regions between 2013 and 2022. Using clustering through a k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient and the Elbow method, three distinct clusters of regions emerged, highlighting significant differences in social support networks. An econometric model was employed to estimate the PYCC variable, factoring in socioeconomic indicators such as employment rates, income inequality, and social participation. The results indicate a complex interplay between socioeconomic conditions and social trust, with regions in the South and Islands showing increased community support, while many Northern regions experienced declines. The study suggests that areas with lower economic conditions often foster stronger social networks, driven by necessity. These findings underline the importance of targeted public policies aimed at fostering social cohesion, particularly in regions facing economic challenges. Policy implications include enhancing education, supporting small enterprises, and promoting social housing and welfare initiatives. Strengthening community participation and volunteering are also highlighted as critical strategies to build resilient support networks. Overall, the research provides valuable insights into the regional disparities of social trust and the role of socioeconomic factors in shaping community support across Italy. |
| Keywords: | Altruism, Social Trust, k-Means, Machine-Learning, Silhouette Coefficient, Elbow Method, Panel Data, Regional Disparities |
| JEL: | D6 D63 D64 D9 J21 |
| Date: | 2024–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122076 |
| By: | Francesco D'Alessandro (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy); Enrico Santarelli (, Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy - Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen, Germany); Marco Vivarelli (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy – UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, The Netherlands – IZA, Bonn, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we integrate the insights of the Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship and Innovation (KSTE+I) with Schumpeter's idea that innovative entrepreneurs creatively apply available local knowledge, possibly mediated by Marshallian, Jacobian and Porter spillovers. In more detail, in this study we assess the degree of pervasiveness and the level of opportunities brought about by AI technologies by testing the possible correlation between the regional AI knowledge stock and the number of new innovative ventures (that is startups patenting in any technological field in the year of their foundation). Empirically, by focusing on 287 Nuts-2 European regions, we test whether the local AI stock of knowledge exerts an enabling role in fostering innovative entry within AI-related local industries (AI technologies as focused enablers) and within non AI-related local industries, as well (AI technologies as generalised enablers). Results from Negative Binomial fixed-effect and Poisson fixed-effect regressions (controlled for a variety of concurrent drivers of entrepreneurship) reveal that the local AI knowledge stock does promote the spread of innovative startups, so supporting both the KSTE+I approach and the enabling role of AI technologies; however, this relationship is confirmed only with regard to the sole high-tech/AI-related industries. |
| Keywords: | KSTE+I, Artificial Intelligence, innovative entry, enabling technologies |
| JEL: | O33 L26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0039 |
| By: | Yongquan Cao; Ms. Era Dabla-Norris; Enrico Di Gregorio |
| Abstract: | We study the supply of fiscal ideas leveraging thousands of electoral platforms from 65 countries in the Manifesto Project to link how political parties discuss fiscal policy with fiscal outcomes. We provide three sets of results. First, fiscal discourse has become increasingly favourable to higher government spending since at least the 1990s in advanced and emerging economies and across the political spectrum. This pattern does not track survey trends in voter preferences, suggesting that parties have played a role in shifting the focus of political campaigns to fiscal issues to win over voters. Second, fiscal discourse turns conservative under more adverse fiscal conditions, including in the aftermath of debt surges and after the adoption of fiscal rules, but only to a limited extent. Third, over the medium-run, relative discourse changes in favor of government expansion and away from fiscal restraint are followed by higher fiscal deficits. Together, our results suggest that adverse shifts in the supply of fiscal ideas could add to fiscal pressures over time. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Discourse; Fiscal Policy; Elections; Manifesto |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/194 |
| By: | Lakhwinder Singh (Punjabi University, Patiala); Nirvikar Singh (University of California, Santa Cruz, USA); Prakarsh Singh (Plaksha University, Mohali, Punjab) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the state of Punjab’s economy, reasons for its current situation, prospects for growth, and policies to enable that growth. Punjab’s economy is characterized by slow growth, societal challenges, and environmental degradation. We identify four interrelated issues that act as constraints on the Punjab economy. First, driven largely by dependence on the central government’s food procurement policy, and its specific nature, the state remains heavily agricultural in a narrow manner. Second, Punjab’s fiscal situation is constrained in ways that make fiscal policy dysfunctional: related causal factors include the agricultural structure and the state’s political economy. Both physical and soft infrastructure have been negatively affected by the problems in public finances. Third, a combination of regional and domestic politics during an era of liberalization has disadvantaged the state, with existing manufacturing industries declining, and new industries and services not emerging rapidly enough. Fourth, both individual human capital and institutional or organizational capital have either failed to develop, or have deteriorated in some dimensions over recent decades, making Punjab less innovative and less attractive for new investment. The paper argues that prospects for meaningful economic development in Punjab will depend on collaboration between the state and national governments, including fiscal support from the latter to deal with switching costs and accumulated fiscal issues. We also discuss several specific policy areas, including agricultural diversification, industrial development and innovation, cross-border services, and decentralization to the local level. |
| Keywords: | : Punjab, India, growth, development, agriculture, industrialization, public finances |
| JEL: | H70 O13 O14 O15 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:169 |
| By: | Hiroshi Inokuma (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hiroshi.inokuma@boj.or.jp)); Juan M. Sánchez (Senior Economic Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (E-mail: juan.m.sanchez@stls.frb.org)) |
| Abstract: | A slowdown in population growth causes a decline in business dynamism by increasing the share of old businesses. But how does it affect productivity growth? We answer this question by extending a standard business dynamics model to include endogenous productivity growth. Theoretically, the growth rate of the size of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" for determining the direction and magnitude of the impact of population growth on productivity growth. Quantitatively, this effect is significant across balanced growth paths for the United States and Japan. TFP growth in the United States falls by 0.3 percentage points because of the slowing in population growth between 1970 and 2060. The same driving force produces a significantly bigger response in Japan. Despite the significant long-run effect, we discover that changes in TFP growth are slow in reaction to population growth changes due to two short-run counterbalancing factors. |
| Keywords: | population growth, economic growth, firms dynamics, demographics, productivity, innovation, TFP |
| JEL: | E20 J11 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:24-e-09 |
| By: | Joan Hardjono |
| Keywords: | economic crisis, social safety net programs, labor force |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:805 |
| By: | Isaac Parkes |
| Abstract: | In this report we evaluate the benefits and costs of providing NICE recommended treatment for addiction or severe mental health problems over a two-year time horizon for one individual. We separately investigate addiction (alcohol or drug misuse), personality disorder, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder in four sets of analyses. |
| Keywords: | mental health, addiction, mental illness, employment |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepops:62 |
| By: | CHRISTOU Tryfonas (European Commission - JRC); GARCIA RODRIGUEZ Abian (European Commission - JRC); LAZAROU Nicholas (European Commission - JRC); SALOTTI Simone (European Commission - JRC); SCHOENWALD Eva |
| Abstract: | Investments in Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) can reduce labour market mismatches, shortages and under-representation by reducing labour market frictions. Interventions in adult learning, reskilling and upskilling can achieve higher employment, com-petitiveness and productivity through a moder-nised labour force to meet the demands of the green and digital transition? This Insight presents the impact of such invest-ments in the context of planned ESF+ invest-ments for 2021-2027, using the RHOMOLO model. The simulations suggest that investment in up-grading worker’s skills and reducing labour mar-ket frictions can lead to long-run increases in i) EU GDP of about 0.069% and ii) employment of around 0.07%. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138499 |
| By: | Waithaka, Douglas Mwangi (Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW)); Kendzia, Michael Jan (Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW)) |
| Abstract: | History teaches valuable lessons. This article examines the performance of the stock market during various boom and bust phases over the last forty years in the United States. By doing so, four previous manias and panics scenarios are analyzed, including the 1987 black Monday crash, the Dotcom bubble in the early 2000s, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2019 Covid pandemic. At the same time, the unemployment rate, the growth domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rate, the conference board's leading economic index and the wages growth rate are considered. Econometric models were finally used to study the markets relationships. The study finds that the labor market lags the stock market during manias and panics, supporting the hypothesis of a delayed response in the labor market. The unemployment rate reacted particularly late to the black Monday crash, the Dotcom bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. The leading economic index followed the stock market closest and with the slightest lag. Wages growth rate and the growth domestic product per capita growth rate reacted with varying degrees to each mania and panic episodes. |
| Keywords: | S&P 500, leading economic index, wage growth rate, unemployment rate |
| JEL: | B23 B27 E24 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17276 |
| By: | Shuochen Bi; Yufan Lian; Ziyue Wang |
| Abstract: | In the financial field of the United States, the application of big data technology has become one of the important means for financial institutions to enhance competitiveness and reduce risks. The core objective of this article is to explore how to fully utilize big data technology to achieve complete integration of internal and external data of financial institutions, and create an efficient and reliable platform for big data collection, storage, and analysis. With the continuous expansion and innovation of financial business, traditional risk management models are no longer able to meet the increasingly complex market demands. This article adopts big data mining and real-time streaming data processing technology to monitor, analyze, and alert various business data. Through statistical analysis of historical data and precise mining of customer transaction behavior and relationships, potential risks can be more accurately identified and timely responses can be made. This article designs and implements a financial big data intelligent risk control platform. This platform not only achieves effective integration, storage, and analysis of internal and external data of financial institutions, but also intelligently displays customer characteristics and their related relationships, as well as intelligent supervision of various risk information |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.10331 |
| By: | Vikram Krishnaveti; Saannidhya Rawat |
| Abstract: | Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) is crucial for college admissions but its effectiveness and relevance are increasingly questioned. This paper enhances Synthetic Control methods by introducing "Transformed Control", a novel method that employs Large Language Models (LLMs) powered by Artificial Intelligence to generate control groups. We utilize OpenAI's API to generate a control group where GPT-4, or ChatGPT, takes multiple SATs annually from 2008 to 2023. This control group helps analyze shifts in SAT math difficulty over time, starting from the baseline year of 2008. Using parallel trends, we calculate the Average Difference in Scores (ADS) to assess changes in high school students' math performance. Our results indicate a significant decrease in the difficulty of the SAT math section over time, alongside a decline in students' math performance. The analysis shows a 71-point drop in the rigor of SAT math from 2008 to 2023, with student performance decreasing by 36 points, resulting in a 107-point total divergence in average student math performance. We investigate possible mechanisms for this decline in math proficiency, such as changing university selection criteria, increased screen time, grade inflation, and worsening adolescent mental health. Disparities among demographic groups show a 104-point drop for White students, 84 points for Black students, and 53 points for Asian students. Male students saw a 117-point reduction, while female students had a 100-point decrease. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.10750 |
| By: | Chanel, Olivier; Prati, Alberto; Raux, Morgan |
| Abstract: | We provide an estimate of the environmental impact of the recruitment system in the economics profession, known as the “international job market for economists”. Each year, most graduating PhDs seeking jobs in academia, government, or companies participate in this job market. The market follows a standardized process, where candidates are pre-screened in a short interview which takes place at an annual meeting in Europe or in the United States. Most interviews are arranged via a non-profit online platform, econjobmarket.org, which kindly agreed to share its anonymized data with us. Using this dataset, we estimate the individual environmental impact of 1057 candidates and one hundred recruitment committees who attended the EEA and AEA meetings in December 2019 and January 2020. We calculate that this pre-screening system generated the equivalent of about 4800 tons of avoidable CO2-eq and a comprehensive economic cost over €4.4 million. We contrast this overall assessment against three counterfactual scenarios: an alternative in-person system, a hybrid system (where videoconference is used for some candidates) and a fully online system (as it happened in 2020–21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic). Overall, the study can offer useful information to shape future recruitment standards in a more sustainable way. |
| Keywords: | carbon footprint; comprehensive economic cost; environmental impact; international job market; job market for economists |
| JEL: | A11 J44 Q51 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:116463 |
| By: | Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS); Markus Gerschberger (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, FHOO); Christopher Schwarz (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, FHOO); Tiberiu-Alexandru Cioban (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, FHOO); Agnes Kügler (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Elma Dervic (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, FHOO); Georg Heiler (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Complexity Science Hub Vienna); Hernán Picatto (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria); Klaus Friesenbichler (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Lukas Schmogil (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Austrian Institute of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This report delves into Austria's role in the global semiconductor supply chain against the backdrop of significant global initiatives to incentivize the production of semiconductors, to secure availability for applications, to promote innovation and prepare for future chip supply crises. Leveraging a model of the stylized semiconductor value chain (SSVC) and employing large-scale data-mining techniques, the study classifies and maps over 20, 000 semiconductor companies to their positions in the extended SSVC (chip production and application). The results reveal that the United States, China, Taiwan, Japan, and Korea are key players in various segments of the value chain. Austria emerges with a concentration in specific value chain segments and a well-diversified presence in a wide range of application domains. Austria has noteworthy capabilities in wafer fabrication, providing equipment and tools for core sub-processes such as lithography, deposition, and packaging. Regarding semiconductor applications, Austria focuses particularly on various industrial applications. It demonstrates proficiency in fields such as sensors, encompassing security, RFID, and imaging applications, power electronics, design automation, high-performance design, mixed-signal circuits, wireless network applications, storage solutions, memory cards, and processors chips. Notably, Austria's strengths extend to applications within the automotive industry, where opportunities might arise with the shift to electric vehicles. Opportunities for Austria lie also in focusing on segments with increasing exclusivity and importance (such as advanced packaging) and combining low capital expenditure with high value add, particularly in chip design and equipment/tools segments. The report highlights potential weaknesses, such as dependencies on external segments and a lack of domestic production in certain areas. |
| Keywords: | Semiconductor, Supply Chain, Global Trade, Austria, Automotive Industry, Electric Vehicles, RFID, Wafer Fabrication, Sensors |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:wpaper:002 |
| By: | Winters-Michaud, Clayton P.; Haro, Alfredo; Callahan, Scott; Bigelow, Daniel P. |
| Abstract: | The United States has a total land area of 2.26 billion acres. In 2017, the major uses of land were grassland pasture and rangeland at 659 million acres (29 percent of the U.S. total), forest-use land at 622 million acres (28 percent), cropland at 390 million acres (17 percent), special uses (primarily parks and wildlife areas) at 318 million acres (14 percent), miscellaneous other uses (such as wetlands, tundra, and unproductive woodlands) at 197 million acres (9 percent), and urban land at 74 million acres (3 percent). This study presents findings from the most recent (2017) inventory of U.S. major land uses, drawing on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, the U.S. Department of Transportation, the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of the Interior, and various other sources. The data sources are collected for each State to estimate the use of several broad classes and subclasses of agricultural and nonagricultural land over time. National and regional trends in land use are discussed using earlier major land-use estimates dating back to 1945. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:345316 |
| By: | JaeBin Ahn (International Monetry Fund); Shekhar Aiyar (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Andrea F. Presbitero (International Monetry Fund) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides cross-country firm-level evidence on productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI), separately for greenfield FDI and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). The granularity of bilateral sector-level FDI datasets allows for addressing possible endogeneity issues by applying a two-step approach whereby an exogenous FDI measure is constructed from a gravity-type regression of bilateral FDI flows. When looking at the effects of greenfield investments on firm labor productivity we find: i) positive intraindustry spillover effects for firms located in advanced countries, and ii) positive backward spillover effects for firms located in emerging and developing countries. These spillovers are driven entirely by FDI from advanced countries. The results from cross-border M&As are noisier, with weakly suggestive evidence for positive intra-industry spillovers in advanced countries but negative backward spillovers in emerging markets and developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment; Cross-border M&A; Intra-industry spillovers; Backward spillovers; Forward spillovers |
| JEL: | F14 F21 F23 F60 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:172 |
| By: | Garcia-Murillo, Martha; MacInnes, Ian |
| Abstract: | The rapid evolution of information technologies has led to a society with worldwide connectivity, efficiency, and convenience. Yet these technological innovations are not free of perils, as they can also negatively impact our economic, political, and social well-being. This paper analyzes the tradeoffs between technological progress and its potential harms, particularly in the United States. Recognizing the historical benefits of digital technologies while also being mindful of their negative consequences, we highlight the complex market dynamics, political influences, and societal forces that determine whether policymakers can pass legislation and regulatory measures to mitigate the potential harm caused by disruptive innovations. The research question driving this paper is: How do market dynamics, political influences, and societal forces interact to shape the prospects of introducing effective legislation and regulatory measures for digital technologies in the United States? In the absence of legal frameworks, what alternative entities are there to mitigate a technology's negative impacts? The research methodology entailed a comprehensive analysis of the scholarly literature and a review of secondary sources related to digital technologies. Synthesizing insights from academic works, reports, and studies, this paper analyzes the multifaceted forces influencing the introduction of legislation and regulatory frameworks for digital technologies in the United States. |
| Keywords: | Digital regulation, social media, digital markets, algorithms, artificial intelligence |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302468 |
| By: | Yueling Huang |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on employment. Exploiting variation in AI adoption across US commuting zones using a shift-share approach, I find that during 2010-2021, commuting zones with higher AI adoption have experienced a stronger decline in the employment-to-population ratio. Moreover, this negative employment effect is primarily borne by the manufacturing and lowskill services sectors, middle-skill workers, non-STEM occupations, and individuals at the two ends of the age distribution. The adverse impact is also more pronounced on men than women. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; technology; labor; local labor markets; shift share |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/199 |
| By: | Julianne E. Dunn |
| Abstract: | Recent legislation such as the American Rescue Plan Act has authorized increased federal spending over the coming years. This District Data Brief analyzes available data to estimate how much this legislation will boost federal spending in Fourth District states. |
| Keywords: | ARPA; IIJA; Inflation Reduction Act; Fourth District |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:c00003:98854 |