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on Investment |
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Issue of 2024‒06‒24
39 papers chosen by |
| By: | Kim, Kye Hwan (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Yang, Jooyoung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Cho, Eun Kyo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | China and the United States are both pursuing strategic de-risking to navigate the murky waters of their relationship, fraught with conflict but bound by trade. De-risking is essentially a kind of industrial policy that focuses on dominating advanced technologies and industries, protecting technologies and markets, and courting the support of like-minded nations. Washington’s de-risking strategy for the semiconductor and battery sectors focuses on bolstering the competitiveness of American industries via internalization, supply chain diversification, and deeper partnerships with allies and friendly nations. China meanwhile is working to navigate the US sanctions regime on technologies and supply chains by establishing China-centered industrial ecosystems and weaponizing key battery inputs, such as rare earths and other important minerals. In the chip sector, the reconfiguration of supply chains would simultaneously feature an accelerated decoupling in cutting-edge nodes and the creation of alternative supply chains in Southeast Asia and India that support mature nodes. Battery supply chains are likely to be reshaped by the rise of major regional blocs or markets (encompassing China, South Korea, and Japan) and concentration of technologies and manufacturing capacity in a few multinational corporations. Korea should pursue a five-pronged industrial policy to respond to these developments. First, it needs to invest in the establishment of vertically integrated industrial clusters. Doing so could transform the country into a trusted hub and middleman. Second, the Korean government should adopt an industrial policy that fosters these clusters. Third, Korea should strive to become a major production hub capable of meeting the high standards necessitated by new protectionist policies. Fourth, Korean firms should establish overseas bases of these integrated clusters as well. Finally, Korea should work to promote green technology partnerships as a viable alternative to the current international trade order. Only with a multifaceted and systematic de-risking policy can Korea hope to overcome the challenges posed by the fragmentation wreaking havoc in contemporary supply chains. |
| Keywords: | semiconductors; chips; batteries; EVs; China; US; Korea; US-China conflict; de-risking; supply chains; supply chain risk; supply chain diversification; industrial policy; supply chain weaponization; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F51 F52 L52 L62 L63 L65 L72 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2024_002&r= |
| By: | Kim, Dongsoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | China boasts an indomitable presence in the global market of critical mineral resources (CMRs). Not only is China a major producer of many of these rare minerals, but the country is also the largest importer and exporter of the minerals used in the manufacture of secondary battery materials. It is unlikely that any other country will topple China’s position in the global mineral market for some time. The United States, Europe, and Japan have been reconfiguring their CMR supply chains over the last several years with the aim of reducing their dependency on China. Korean EV battery makers import 80 to 90 percent of the CMRs they need from China. Washington has sought to restructure its CMR supply chains since it first openly declared its intent to contain China in 2017. Beijing has responded by restricting exports of key minerals and increasing investment in joint ventures with businesses overseas. The Korean government has sought to respond to the growing uncertainty cast by the US-China rivalry over CMR supply chains by designing its own strategy for securing access to CMRs. It has since made law the Special Act on the Security of National Resources, which lays the legislative foundation for an early warning system, stockpiling, import diversification, and infrastructure expansion. At the more fundamental level, however, Korea needs to increase its cooperation with resource-rich countries with a view to establishing an integrated CMR ecosystem. In the short term, however the Korean government needs to grow public stockpiles of key minerals and quickly nurture companies capable of refining and processing raw minerals. Policy support and incentives are also needed to encourage the private sector to grow its own stockpiles. In the long term, Korea needs to build and maintain trust with China and redesign policies to minimize the risks of supply crises. |
| Keywords: | critical mineral resources; CMR; US-China conflict; Korea; rare earths; battery materials; battery precursors; supply chains; international cooperation; Indonesia; Vietnam; India; stockpiling; mineral processing |
| JEL: | F51 F52 L65 L72 L78 Q34 Q37 Q38 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2024_001&r= |
| By: | Hristos Doucouliagos; Katarina Zigova |
| Abstract: | We apply meta-regression analysis to assess the effect of the minimum wage on two types of human capital: 460 estimates of formal education enrolment and 428 estimates of on-the-job training. Raising the minimum wage reduces enrolment in all countries assessed. The minimum wage has a somewhat moderate positive effect on training in the US and a small positive training effect elsewhere. There is no publication bias in the formal education and modest bias in training literatures. Heterogeneity among reported estimates is primarily driven by alternative specifications and measures of the relevant variables and data differences. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, on-the-job training, education enrolment, meta-regression analysis |
| JEL: | J08 J24 J51 M53 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0219&r= |
| By: | Oliver Pfäuti; Fabian Seyrich; Jonathan Zinman |
| Abstract: | Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially constrained decreases with cognitive skills and increases with overconfidence thereon. Guided by this and other micro evidence, we add persistent heterogeneity in cognitive skills and overconfidence to an otherwise standard HANK model. Overconfidence proves to be the key innovation, driving households to spend instead of precautionary save and producing empirically realistic wealth distributions and hand-to-mouth shares and MPCs across the income distribution. We highlight implications for various fiscal policies. |
| Keywords: | Household heterogeneity, cognitive skills, overconfidence, financial constraints, fiscal policy, HANK |
| JEL: | D91 E21 E62 E71 G51 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2080&r= |
| By: | Amendolagine, Vito; Crescenzi, Riccardo; Rabellotti, Roberta |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how institutional conditions at national and regional levels shape the decisions of Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) to invest abroad by means of either acquisitions or greenfield investments. The empirical analysis covers all Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects in the European Union by the largest MNEs in the world to study alternative choices by the same firm and account for firm-level characteristics in investment decisions. The empirical results show that - other things being equal - regions with stronger investment eco-systems are more likely to attract acquisitions, while greenfield investments are more likely in regions with comparatively weaker systemic conditions. Howerver, the regional quality of institutions makes a fundamental difference to the nature of the investment projects attracted by regions: those with high quality of government can attract greenfield investments undertaken by the most productive MNEs. By improving their quality of government, local and regional policy makers can attract higher quality greenfield investment projects to their constituencies, potentially breaking the vicious circle between low productivity areas and low productivity FDI. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment; greenfield investment; cross-border acquisitions; multinational enterprises; firm heterogeneity; regions; European Union; institutions; European Union Horizon 2020 Programme H2020/2014-2020 (Grant Agreement n 639633-MASSIVE-ERC-2014-STG).; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | R12 R58 F23 |
| Date: | 2024–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122662&r= |
| By: | Mario Bossler; Lars Chittka; Thorsten Schank |
| Abstract: | We present the first empirical evidence on the 22 percent increase in the German minimum wage, implemented in 2022, raising it from Euro 9.82 to 10.45 in July and to Euro 12 in October. Leveraging the German Earnings Survey, a large and novel data source comprising around 8 million employee-level observations reported by employers each month, we apply a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to analyze the policy's impact on hourly wages, monthly earnings, employment, and working hours. Our findings reveal significant positive effects on wages, affirming the policy's intended benefits for low-wage workers. Interestingly, we identify a negative effect on working hours, mainly driven by minijobbers. The hours effect results in an implied labor demand elasticity w.r.t. the employment volume of -0.17 which only partially offsets the monthly wage gains. We neither observe a negative effect on the individual's employment retention nor the regional employment levels. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.12608&r= |
| By: | Oliver Linton; Raghavendra Rau; Patrick Baert; Peter Bossaerts; Jon Crowcroft; Gill Evans; Paul Ewart; Robert Foley; Nick Gay; Paul Kattuman; Fermin Moscoso del Prado Martin; Stefan Scholtes; Hamid Sabourian; Richard J. Smith |
| Abstract: | This paper critically evaluates the HESA (Higher Education Statistics Agency) Data Report for the Employer Justified Retirement Age (EJRA) Review Group at the University of Cambridge (Cambridge 2024), identifying significant methodological flaws and misinterpretations. Our analysis reveals issues such as application of data filters only to the Cambridge sample, inconsistent variable treatment, and erroneous statistical conclusions. The Report suggests EJRA increased job creation rates at Cambridge, but we show Cambridge consistently had lower job creation rates for Established Academic Careers compared to other Russell Group universities, both before and after EJRA implementation in 2011. This suggests that EJRA is not a significant factor driving job creation rates. Since other universities without an EJRA exhibit higher job creation rates, this suggests job creation can be sustained without such a policy. We conclude that the EJRA did not achieve its intended goal of increasing opportunities for young academics and may have exacerbated existing disparities compared to other leading universities. We recommend EJRA be abolished at Cambridge since it does not meet its justified aims and could be viewed as unlawful age discrimination. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.14611&r= |
| By: | Knight, Simon (University of Technology Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Objectives: There have been recent calls for new ethics guidelines regarding the use of artificial intelligence in research. How should we go about developing such ethics guidance documents with respect to emerging contexts such as new technologies, and established domains such as research in education? This paper provides a PRISMA-ETHICS informed scoping review of approaches to ethics guideline development, the structures of ethics guidelines, and their audiences and purposes particularly in the context of education and AI. Search and synthesis approach: A broad search of scholarly and grey literature was conducted to identify both ethics guidelines and material discussing their development; n = 592 distinct items were identified, including 182 that identified via recent reviews of AI ethics guidelines. n = 47 guideline-sets were identified as meeting our criteria as ‘guidelines’. Data extraction and analysis: Guidelines were analysed with respect to their development approach, audience and purpose, and structural elements through which guidance is delivered; most included statements regarding their development approach (79%) and audience (72%) typically in 1-2 paragraphs in the introduction. Where evidence underpinning the guidance was discussed, it was largely at a global content level (69%), rather than with respect to the specific context/domain of the guideline use, principles drawn on, or approaches and strategies one might adopt in navigating ethical issues (23, 29, and 21% respectively). Consultation with stakeholders and experts were the most common forms of evidence. Across the guidelines there are commonalities in the majority including: an overview statement of the topic, audience, and guideline purpose; an indication of rights or license describing reuse conditions; an overview of the ethical concepts and their detailed elaboration; challenging cases or edge issues; and approaches or strategies one might adopt to navigate these. However, only the first element (overview) was present in all guidelines, a finding born out in the further analysis of items relating specifically to AI and education. Recommendations regarding the development of ethics guidelines, and their structure are provided. Funding: The work was supported through internal funding providing release of the author’s time. Systematic review registration: The review was not pre-registered. |
| Date: | 2024–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:n43d6&r= |
| By: | Miriam Fritzsche |
| Abstract: | Across industrialized countries, regional disparities in labor market outcomes and income have increased in recent decades. This paper investigates how one of the largest localized labor demand shocks tied to the beginning of de-industrialization- the decline of the mining industry between 1960 and 2010 - affects labor market outcomes in the long run. The analysis relies on a new panel data set based on digitized census records from Belgium, France, the UK, and Germany that allows to trace labor market adjustments over 60 years for the male and female working-age population separately. For the causal estimation, I use an IV-shift share approach that exploits exogenous variation in the shifts induced by increased seaborne trade of energy substitutes and the share given by geological rock strata to predict mining activity. The male population disproportionately suffered under this (early) de-industrialization shock and the subsequent job loss. For the male population, the employment-population ratio has not yet recovered resulting in persistent local joblessness. In contrast, the female working-age population experienced a strong catch-up in employment and participation. I find that at the aggregate level, a substantial, albeit time-lagged population response paired with a strong increase in female participation rates fully compensate for the loss of male jobs over the decades. As a consequence, the male-female employment gap shrinks over time. |
| Keywords: | Structural change, local labor markets, regional disparities |
| Date: | 2024–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0040&r= |
| By: | Giulia Brancaccio (New York University); Myrto Kalouptsidi (Harvard University); Theodore Papageorgiou (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Transportation infrastructure is vital for the smooth functioning of international trade. Ports are a crucial gateway to this system: with more than 80% of trade carried by ships, they shape trade costs, and it is critical that they operate efficiently. Yet ports are susceptible to disruptions, causing costly delays. With enormous budgets spent on infrastructure to alleviate these costs, a key policy question emerges: in a world with high volatility, what are the returns to investing in infrastructure? To address this question, we introduce an empirical framework that combines insights from queueing theory to capture port technology, with tools from demand estimation. We use our framework, together with a collection of novel datasets, to quantify the costs of disruptions and evaluate transportation infrastructure investment. Our analysis unveils three policy-relevant messages: (i) investing in port infrastructure can lead to substantial trade and welfare gains, but only if targeted properly– in fact, net of costs, investment has positive returns at a minority of US ports; (ii) there are sizable spillovers across ports, as investing in one port can decongest a wider set of ports, suggesting that decision-making should not be decentralized to local authorities; (iii) macroeconomic volatility can drastically change returns to investment and their geography. |
| Keywords: | transportation, infrastructure, ports, congestion, macroeconomic volatility, disruptions, spillovers, welfare |
| JEL: | E39 F1 F14 L0 L90 L91 R4 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1072&r= |
| By: | Joseph P. Kaboski; Jianyu Lu; Wei Qian; Lixia Ren |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of roads on structural transformation and business composition theoretically and empirically. We develop a two-sector model of regional trade with endogenous firm entry that highlights two opposing forces. \textit{Ceteris paribus} lower trade costs in non-agriculture lead to fewer firms, but cheaper agricultural imports releases labor from local agricultural production leading to more firms. Using major highway programs in India and China, we find results broadly consistent with the theory, with declines in the number of businesses where structural transformation is weak, and increases where it is strong. |
| JEL: | F15 O13 O18 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32448&r= |
| By: | Coskun, Sena (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Dauth, Wolfgang (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Gartner, Hermann (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stops, Michael (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg) |
| Abstract: | "This paper examines how the shift towards working from home during and after the Covid-19 pandemic shapes the way how labor market and locality choices interact. For our analysis, we combine large administrative data on employment biographies in Germany and a new working from home potential indicator based on comprehensive data on working conditions across occupations. We find that in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the distance between workplace and residence has increased more strongly for workers in occupations that can be done from home: The association of working from home potential and work-home distance increased significantly since 2021 as compared to a stable pattern before. The effect is much larger for new jobs, suggesting that people match to jobs with high working from home potential that are further away than before the pandemic. Most of this effect stems from jobs in big cities, which indicates that working from home alleviates constraints by tight housing markets. We find no significant evidence that commuting patterns changed more strongly for women than for men." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Pandemie ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Berufsgruppe ; Entwicklung ; geschlechtsspezifische Faktoren ; abhängig Beschäftigte ; Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien ; Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien ; Pendelwanderung ; regionale Verteilung ; regionaler Arbeitsmarkt ; Stadtregion ; Telearbeit ; Wohnsituation ; Arbeitsplatzwechsel ; Arbeitsweg ; 2016-2022 |
| JEL: | J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202406&r= |
| By: | Adriano Linzarini; Daniel Catarino da Silva |
| Abstract: | Social and emotional skills (SES) are important for various life outcomes, such as academic achievement, mental health, job performance or civic engagement. The assessment of these skills in children and adolescents, however, currently relies heavily on the use of self-reported questionnaires. As such, there is an urgent need for more direct measurement approaches of SES, which look at behaviours, actions and choices, in order to diversify the current portfolio of available assessments. The aim of this working paper is, thus, to map and review innovative assessment tools as well as technological approaches, aimed at the direct assessment of SES. Firstly, the paper documents almost 60 different behavioural tools, namely tasks and digital games. These instruments are reviewed according to a set of criteria, including their reliability, construct and ecological validity, and feasibility. Secondly, the paper identifies technological approaches, such as biophysiological measures, virtual reality or different artificial intelligence applications. Many of these technologies have the potential of being transversally integrated into different tasks and game, enriching the quality of SES assessment, albeit bringing new challenges. Lastly, the paper promotes a dialogue between the different types of innovative assessments, identifying comparative strengths and challenges. |
| Date: | 2024–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:316-en&r= |
| By: | Krūminas, Pijus; Čepėnas, Simonas; Darškuvienė, Valdonė |
| Abstract: | Moya Chin's (2023) paper argues that politicians in two-round majoritarian systems have to appeal more broadly than those in single-round elections. The author uses data for mayoral elections in Brazil. The key findings of the paper conclude that of two-round systems (1) fostering inclusiveness, (2) resulting in higher levels and wider distribution of public goods, and (3) leading to better immediate societal outcomes in terms of drop-out and elementary literacy rates. The author uses regression discontinuity design to test her hypotheses. We test computational reproducibility and successfully duplicate the key results of the study. We also test for result replicability by modifying the data sample used by Chin (2023) using the same method. In nearly all cases, we find that our results are very close (in terms of direction of effect, magnitude, and statistical significance) to those obtained by the original author with only some relationships losing statistical significance. We reproduce and then replicate all the three key empirical results obtained by the author, meaning that there is an effect on inclusiveness, distribution of public goods, and more immediate societal outcomes (although, our study does not find a statistically significant effect of a two-voter system on elementary literacy rates). |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:128&r= |
| By: | Samuel Jordan-Wood; Julian Kozlowski |
| Abstract: | Financially, fewer households appear to be living hand to mouth. This may have implications for the effectiveness of certain economic policies, such as stimulus spending. |
| Keywords: | household liquidity |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98281&r= |
| By: | Romero, Sandra MCP |
| Abstract: | The Universal Basic Mobility (UBM) pilots in Oakland and Los Angeles, launched in 2021, were innovative initiatives to address transportation equity and access issues in historically underserved communities. These experimental programs examined the impact of providing flexible transportation benefits to low-income residents. However, the current program designs fall short of achieving accessibility and sustainability objectives. Instead, they serve as initial steps in exploring UBM as a potential transportation equity strategy. The report explores the motivation behind local agencies initiating UBM pilots despite existing transportation benefit initiatives, and provides insights from program practitioners on the challenges and opportunities in UBM implementation. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Universal Basic Mobility, Mobility as a Service, transportation disadvantaged persons, transportation equity, pilot studies, user side subsidies, accessibility, sustainable transportation |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4b73k640&r= |
| By: | Gérard Pogorel (IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, SES - Département Sciences Economiques et Sociales - Télécom ParisTech); Francesco Cappelletti (ELF - European Liberal Forum) |
| Abstract: | In addressing the EU's contemporary chal- lenges, this analysis acknowledges a critical intersection between the imperatives of se- curity, sustainability, and industrial auton- omy. The EU undertakes substantial efforts in these domains. The rapidly shifting glob- al context, its considerable volatility, and emerging trends render any immediate as- sessment of recent policy initiatives prema- ture. However, this dynamic and uncertain landscape underscores the limitations of conventional forecasting and necessitates an ongoing reassessment of the EU's strate- gic priorities. Central to this discourse is the policy ‘trilemma' confronting the Union: the need to simultaneously uphold security, fos-ter sustainability, and maintain the focus on competitiveness. In this sense, industrial au- tonomy refers to the EU's strategic capacity to reinforce its industrial base and supply chains in key sectors, adapting swiftly to global eco- nomic and geopolitical shifts. This chapter explores these issues and proposes coherent changes in approach, all within the frame- work of an EU policy trilemma focusing on security, sustainability, and competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | Europe, industrial policy, sustainability, security, competitively |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04571370&r= |
| By: | Jochen Wulf; Juerg Meierhofer |
| Abstract: | Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) in transforming technical customer service (TCS) through the automation of cognitive tasks. Design/Methodology/Approach: Using a prototyping approach, the research assesses the feasibility of automating cognitive tasks in TCS with LLMs, employing real-world technical incident data from a Swiss telecommunications operator. Findings: Lower-level cognitive tasks such as translation, summarization, and content generation can be effectively automated with LLMs like GPT-4, while higher-level tasks such as reasoning require more advanced technological approaches such as Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) or finetuning ; furthermore, the study underscores the significance of data ecosystems in enabling more complex cognitive tasks by fostering data sharing among various actors involved. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the emerging theory on LLM potential and technical feasibility in service management, providing concrete insights for operators of TCS units and highlighting the need for further research to address limitations and validate the applicability of LLMs across different domains. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.09161&r= |
| By: | Stéphane Auray; Michael B. Devereux; Aurélien Eyquem |
| Abstract: | Monetary rules may have a large effect on the outcome of trade wars if central banks target the CPI inflation rate or more generally changes in the relative price of traded goods. We lay out a two-country open-economy model with sticky prices where countries engage in trade wars. In the presence of monopoly pricing markups, we show that the final level of tariffs and welfare losses from trade wars critically depend on the design of monetary policy. If central banks adopt a fixed nominal exchange rate or even better target the CPI inflation rate, trade wars are much less intense than those under PPI inflation targeting. We further show that an optimally delegated monetary rule that internalizes the formation of non-cooperative trade policy can actually completely eliminate a trade war, and even act to partly offset the welfare cost of monopoly markups. |
| JEL: | F30 F40 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32451&r= |
| By: | Beber, Bernd; Ebert, Cara; Sievert, Maximiliane |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which asylum policies that aim to deter individuals from migrating irregularly in fact do so. We specifically consider effects of Germany's recent and high-profile asylum policy adjustments, which include accelerated asylum decision processes, the prospect of asylum processing outside of Europe, the introduction of a payment card to replace cash benefits, and an extended waiting period for native-level benefits. In order to estimate effects of these policy measures on irregular migration intent, we implement a conjoint experiment with 989 men aged 18-40 in four cities in Senegal, a population of most-likely migrants in a country where irregular migration to Europe is highly salient. We find that offshoring the asylum process significantly and substantially lowers irregular migration intentions across nearly all types of subjects. Extending the waiting time for native-level benefits only has a small, marginally significant effect on intent, and no effect among the poorest subjects and those that are most motivated to migrate internationally. Neither reducing asylum processing times nor replacing cash benefits with a payment card significantly alters intentions. We note that the presence or absence of an effect does not resolve political and normative questions concerning these policies, which are beyond the scope of this particular study. |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen, inwieweit asylpolitische Maßnahmen, die darauf abzielen, Menschen von irregulärer Migration abzuhalten, dies auch tatsächlich tun. Wir untersuchen insbesondere die Auswirkungen der jüngsten und öffentlichkeitswirksamen Anpassungen der deutschen Asylpolitik, zu denen beschleunigte Asylentscheidungsverfahren, die Aussicht auf Asylverfahren außerhalb Europas, die Einführung einer Bezahlkarte als Ersatz für Barleistungen und eine verlängerte Wartezeit für Analogleistungen gehören. Um die Auswirkungen dieser politischen Maßnahmen auf die Absicht der irregulären Migration zu schätzen, führen wir ein Conjoint-Experiment mit 989 Männern im Alter von 18 bis 40 Jahren in vier senegalesischen Städten durch, also mit einer Bevölkerungsgruppe, in der irreguläre Migration nach Europa präsent ist. Wir stellen fest, dass die Verlagerung des Asylverfahrens die Absicht zur irregulären Migration bei fast allen Subjekttypen signifikant und erheblich senkt. Die Verlängerung der Wartezeit für Analogleistungen hat nur einen kleinen, marginal signifikanten Effekt auf Migrationsabsichten, und keinen Effekt bei den ärmsten Personen und denjenigen, die am meisten motiviert sind, international zu migrieren. Weder die Verkürzung der Bearbeitungszeiten für Asylanträge noch die Ersetzung von Geldleistungen durch eine Bezahlkarte haben einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die relevante Migrationsabsicht. Wir weisen darauf hin, dass das Vorhandensein oder Nichtvorhandensein eines Effekts politische und normative Fragen in Bezug auf diese Maßnahmen nicht löst. |
| Keywords: | Asylum policy, irregular migration, conjoint experiment |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:295228&r= |
| By: | Köppl-Turyna, Monika |
| Abstract: | Die Policy Note analysiert und vergleicht Elektrizitätspreise für gewerbliche und industrielle Kunden in Europa seit 2007. Historisch betrachtet zählten die Nettopreise für gewerbliche und industrielle Kunden in Österreich zu den niedrigeren in Europa. Jedoch änderte sich diese Situation abrupt mit dem russischen Angriffskrieg, was zu einem rapiden Anstieg der Erdgaspreise führte. Da Erdgas insbesondere in den Wintermonaten eine bedeutende Rolle für die Stromproduktion in Österreich spielt, hatten diese Preissteigerungen direkte Auswirkungen auf die Elektrizitätspreise. Es besteht die Gefahr, dass die Preise aufgrund der höheren Gaspreise weiterhin hoch bleiben werden. Obwohl die Nettostrompreise vor dem Krieg moderat waren, sind die Bruttopreise in Österreich über dem europäischen Schnitt gelegen, hauptsächlich aufgrund der hohen Nebenkosten (Abgaben und Netzentgelte), insbesondere für Großkunden. Der Anteil der Nebenkosten am Bruttopreis ist nur in wenigen europäischen Ländern höher als in Österreich. Dies beeinträchtigt trotz vergleichsweise niedriger Nettostrompreise die internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit österreichischer Industrieunternehmen. Ein weiteres wichtiges Ergebnis der Analyse ist die starke (negative) Korrelation zwischen den Nettopreisen und dem Anteil erneuerbarer Energien in der Stromproduktion im internationalen Vergleich. Insbesondere Windenergie zeigt einen deutlichen Einfluss auf die Preise, wobei ein stärkerer Einsatz zu signifikanten Preisreduktionen führt. Ähnliche Effekte sind auch bei der Wasserkraft zu beobachten, wenn auch in geringerem Ausmaß. Prognosen deuten darauf hin, dass Österreich im Vergleich zu anderen europäischen Ländern einen langsameren Rückgang der Elektrizitätspreise für gewerbliche und industrielle Kunden verzeichnen wird. Dies ist vor allem auf den Einsatz von Erdgas in der Stromproduktion zurückzuführen, was zu höheren Terminpreisen für Strom führt. (...) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ecoapn:296485&r= |
| By: | Vianney Dequiedt (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Audrey-Anne De Ubeda (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Édouard Mien (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | Regularly the subject of international discussions over the last two decades without reaching a consensus, taxation on maritime transport has been on the agenda of international negotiations since the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact held in Paris in June 2023 and the Paris Pact for People and the Planet (4P). The past year has been marked by strong political declarations and signals, including the launch of a taskforce on international taxation1 to tackle the joint development, climate and nature agenda. It has further affirmed the opening of an unprecedented window of opportunity, which many countries in the South and North are eager to seize. |
| Keywords: | Tax, Taxation, Tax coordination |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04573848&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Domestic stability has improved since the new government took office in October 2022. This has facilitated the passage of Iraq’s first three-year budget, which entailed a large fiscal expansion starting in 2023. The non-oil economy has rebounded strongly in 2023 after stalling in 2022 and was largely unaffected by the ongoing conflict in the region. Nonetheless, Iraq remains highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations and private sector activity is hindered by the large state footprint—including as an employer of first resort—corruption, red tape, underdeveloped infrastructure, and poor access to credit. |
| Date: | 2024–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/128&r= |
| By: | Rudel, Steffi; Steinle, Nora; Kolb, Lisa |
| Abstract: | Aufgrund der exponierten Stellung im Unternehmen sowie der Verarbeitung von personenbezogenen und vertraulichen Daten sind Personalabteilungen (Human Resource Management, HRM) einem erhöhten Risiko für Cyberangriffe ausgesetzt. Das Ziel der vorgestellten Forschung ist es, die IT-Sicherheit im HRM zu untersuchen und zu erhöhen, wobei der Fokus dieses Beitrags auf dem Faktor Mensch liegt. Es wird eine Umfrage zum Kenntnisstand der IT-Sicherheit im HRM sowie ein Training zur Verbesserung der IT-Sicherheitskompetenz von HRM-Mitarbeitenden vorgestellt. |
| Abstract: | Due to their exposed position in the company and the processing of personal and confidential data, human resource management (HRM) departments are exposed to an increased risk of cyberattacks. The aim of the research presented here is to investigate and increase IT security in HRM, with the focus of this article being on the human factor. A survey on the level of knowledge of IT security in HRM and a training programme to improve the IT security skills of HRM employees are presented. |
| Keywords: | IT-Sicherheit, Human Resource Management (HRM), Serious Game, Personalabteilung |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:296466&r= |
| By: | Sánchez, Mariola; Nerja, Adrian |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we compare the scenarios of exclusive licenses and cross-licenses under the existence of partial vertical integration. To do this, a successive duopoly model is proposed, with two owners and two firms competing in a differentiated product market. Each technology owner has a share in one of the competing firms, so that competition is also extended to the upstream R&D sector. We propose a novel analysis where differences in the size of their innovation process are allowed, extending the results in Sánchez et al. (2021). We find that the cross-licensing scenario is preferred when the size of the innovation is small; this occurs regardless of the participation in the competing companies and how many innovate. If the innovation is very large, the owners may be better off with exclusive licenses. |
| Keywords: | Patent Licensing; Exclusive licenses; Market for technology; Asymmetric innovation |
| JEL: | L13 L24 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120829&r= |
| By: | Julia Mink (University of Bonn, Institute for Applied Microeconomics, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study sheds new light on the impact of couple separation on living standards by considering the effects of separation on measures reflecting the adequacy of food consumption in addition to more commonly studied income and expenditure measures. Using panel data from France, I examine changes in disposable income, food expenditure and food quantities purchased, diet quality and body weight at the time of separation and up to eight years later, compared to a control group of households that did not separate. Living standards decline to such an extent that households cannot maintain their food consumption, resulting in weight loss. |
| Keywords: | Separation, divorce, living standards, income, food consumption, event study |
| JEL: | D12 J12 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:305&r= |
| By: | Hasager, Linea (University of Copenhagen); Jørgensen, Mia (Danmarks Nationalbank) |
| Abstract: | Does living in a low-income neighborhood have negative health consequences? We document causal neighborhood effects on health by exploiting a Spatial Dispersal Policy that quasi-randomly resettled refugees across neighborhoods from 1986 to 1998. Refugees allocated to low-income neighborhoods had a 12 percent higher risk of having developed a lifestyle related disease 8 to 15 years after immigration compared with those allocated to high-income neighborhoods. Our results suggest that interaction with neighbors and the characteristics of the immediate environment are important determinants for health outcomes. Differences in health care access, ethnic networks, and individual labor market outcomes cannot explain our findings. |
| Keywords: | health inequality, Refugee Dispersal Policy, lifestyle related diseases, neighborhood effects |
| JEL: | J15 I12 I14 I31 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16949&r= |
| By: | Diegmann, André; Pohlan, Laura; Weber, Andrea |
| Abstract: | We study how connections to German federal parliamentarians affect firm dynamics by constructing a novel dataset to measure connections between politicians and the universe of firms. To identify the causal effect of access to political power, we exploit (i) new appointments to the company leadership team and (ii) discontinuities around the marginal seat of party election lists. Our results reveal that connections lead to reductions in firm exits, gradual increases in employment growth without improvements in productivity. The economic effects are mediated by better credit ratings while access to subsidies or procurement contracts are documented to be of lower importance. |
| Keywords: | firm performance, identification, political connections, politicians |
| JEL: | D72 L25 O43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:296476&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Outlook and Risks. Real GDP growth and inflation moderated in 2023 and are projected to decline further over the medium term as the output gap closes and global commodity prices fall. The fiscal position remains robust, but debt dynamics have become more challenging due to the increase in the interest rate – growth differential, with public debt projected to remain above 50 percent of GDP over the next decade. Risks to the outlook include further increases in commodity prices and climate-related disasters. |
| Date: | 2024–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/124&r= |
| By: | Debin Ma (All Souls College, Oxford University); Jared Rubin (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the old theses of the contrasting paths to modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of ideology and ideological change—Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West pitted against Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism—as the key driver behind these contrasting paths. Our framework and historical narrative highlight the contrast between Tokugawa Japan’s feudal, decentralized political regime and Qing China’s centralized bureaucratic system as a key determinant driving the differential patterns of ideological realignment. We argue that the 1894-95 Japanese naval victory over China could not be justified under the prevailing Imperial Chinese ideology and thus served as the catalyst for China’s subsequent ideological transformation, which occurred via borrowing Japan’s successful Meiji reforms of both institutions and ideology. Our analytical framework, developed from a comparative historical narrative, sheds new insights on the importance of ideology and ideological change for our understanding of political and economic change. |
| Keywords: | ideology, ideological change, China, Japan, economic development, economic divergence, Meiji Reform, centralization, decentralization |
| JEL: | N35 N45 N75 O33 O38 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:24-09&r= |
| By: | Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) |
| Abstract: | USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) regulates the importation, interstate movement, and environmental release or field testing of certain plants and organisms produced through biotechnology. This factsheet answers frequently asked questions about APHIS’ biotechnology regulations. Who regulates agricultural products of biotechnology? What do APHIS’ biotechnology regulations cover? What plants are exempt from APHIS’ biotechnology regulations? How do I verify a plant’s regulatory status? Where can I find a list of modified crops not subject to APHIS regulation? When can modified crops be safely commercialized? When do I need a permit from APHIS? How does APHIS ensure compliance with biotechnology regulations and permit conditions? How does APHIS address regulatory noncompliance? Does APHIS inspect all field tests? What are common compliance infractions? How does APHIS make sure commercial food and feed is free of field-test materials? How does APHIS comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)? Does APHIS involve the public in important policy decisions? Where can I go for more information? |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:343272&r= |
| By: | Fabien Leurent (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | A line ride-sharing service is supplied along a given roadway path by an operator that matches Users (riders) and Agents (drivers), under specific protocol that involves price schedule on both the U and A sides, waiting policy on either side and transaction times. The resulting time and money items add up over trip legs, yielding trip time and money cost depending on the service role, A or U, compared to Non-commitment, called role N for Neutral. The article brings about a traffic model of people involvement in the service. Service conditions of frequency φ and average number of users per car run ω are key factors of the time and money features of the alternative roles A, U and N. Individual choice of role is modeled as a rational behavior of minimizing the generalized cost depending on the individual Value-of-Time (VoT). Aggregation over trip-makers according to the statistical distribution of VoT yields the respective role flows (y_A, y_U, y_N), which in turn determine the macroscopic factors (φ, ω). Traffic equilibrium is defined as a balance condition between the "supplied flows" and the "demanded flows" of the three roles. A computational scheme is provided, with graphical interpretation in the (y_A, y_U) plane as well as in the (φ, ω) plane. A numerical experiment is conducted, showing that two alternative configurations can arise at equilibrium: either {A, U, N} with less wealthy Agents driving wealthier Users, or {U, A, N} where less wealthy Users are driven by wealthier Agents: in both cases the Neutral role attracts the upper range of the VoT distribution. |
| Keywords: | bi-sided platform, traffic equilibrium, multi-sided equilibrium, equilibration algorithm, Ride-sharing service |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-04579457&r= |
| By: | Stefan Wager |
| Abstract: | We use the martingale construction of Luedtke and van der Laan (2016) to develop tests for the presence of treatment heterogeneity. The resulting sequential validation approach can be instantiated using various validation metrics, such as BLPs, GATES, QINI curves, etc., and provides an alternative to cross-validation-like cross-fold application of these metrics. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.05534&r= |
| By: | Paula C. Pereda; Taina Portela; Patricia Ravaioli |
| Abstract: | The need for a tax reform in Brazil stems from the country's complex tax system, which has contributed to decreased productivity and hindered investments. The Brazilian Tax Reform, approved in December 2023, introduces a Value-Added Tax (VAT) system comprising a federal VAT (CBS), a local VAT (IBS), and a selective tax (IS) on products with negative health and environmental externalities. This study explores the potential impacts of various scenarios of the reform on consumption, using data from the latest Household Budget Survey (POF 2017-2018). Our findings indicate that a broader tax reform (in terms of food basket exemptions and selective taxes on ultraprocessed products) could result in a decrease in 6.92% of government tax collection on consumption. However, consumption patterns would shift significantly, with a sharp increase in healthy food consumption and decrease in ultra-processed food. The scenario considering the newest tax rate proposal (more conservative in terms of the exemptions and considering the selective tax only on one type of ultraprocessed product, sweetened drinks) suggests an increase in government revenue but highlights reductions in in natura and ultra-processed product consumption. These results underscore the reform's potential to influence consumption patterns and the balance between generating tax revenue and ensuring affordability of essential goods. |
| Keywords: | tax reform; ultraprocessed foods; impacts on consumption |
| JEL: | H51 I18 R28 |
| Date: | 2024–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon17&r= |
| By: | Huiyu Li; Junhua Hu |
| Abstract: | Stock price prediction has always been a difficult task for forecasters. Using cutting-edge deep learning techniques, stock price prediction based on investor sentiment extracted from online forums has become feasible. We propose a novel hybrid deep learning framework for predicting stock prices. The framework leverages the XLNET model to analyze the sentiment conveyed in user posts on online forums, combines these sentiments with the post popularity factor to compute daily group sentiments, and integrates this information with stock technical indicators into an improved BiLSTM-highway model for stock price prediction. Through a series of comparative experiments involving four stocks on the Chinese stock market, it is demonstrated that the hybrid framework effectively predicts stock prices. This study reveals the necessity of analyzing investors' textual views for stock price prediction. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.10584&r= |
| By: | David Reinstein; Elias Cisneros |
| Abstract: | Evaluation 1 of "The Environmental Effects of Economic Production: Evidence from Ecological Observations" for The Unjournal |
| Date: | 2023–07–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:liangetaleval1&r= |
| By: | Ahmadzadeh, Amirreza; Waizmann, Stephan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how to combine screening menus and inspection in mechanism design. A Principal procures a good from an Agent whose cost is his private information. The Principal has three instruments: screening menus —i.e., quantities and transfers — and (ex-ante) inspection. Inspection is costly but reveals the Agent’s cost. The combination of inspection and screening menus mitigates inefficiencies: the optimal mechanism procures an efficient quantity from all Agents whose cost of production is sufficiently low, regardless of whether inspection has taken place. However, quantity distortions still necessarily occur in optimal regulation; the quantity procured from Agents with higher production costs is inefficiently low. Both results are true regardless of the magnitude of inspection costs. In contrast to settings without inspection, incentive compatibility con-straints do not bind locally. This paper provides a method to address this challenge, characterizing which constraints bind. |
| Keywords: | Mechanism Design; Verification; Principal-Agent; Inspection, Procurement |
| JEL: | D82 D86 L51 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129335&r= |
| By: | Rochet, Jean-Charles; Carlier, Guillaume; Dupuis, Xavier; Thanassoulis, John |
| Abstract: | We provide an algorithm for solving multidimensional screening problems which are intractable analytically. The algorithm is a primal-dual algorithm which alternates between optimising the primal problem of the surplus extracted by the principal and the dual problem of the optimal assignment to deliver to the agents for a given surplus. We illustrate the algorithm by solving (i) the generic monopolist price discrimination problem and (ii) an optimal tax problem covering income and savings taxes when citizens differ in multiple dimensions. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional screening; algorithm; numerical methods; price discrimination; optimal tax |
| JEL: | C02 H21 D42 |
| Date: | 2024–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129347&r= |
| By: | Tut, DANIEL |
| Abstract: | What factors drive the valuation of Bitcoin and other crypto-assets? We use a novel measure and show that [1] Sentiments in Bitcoin drive the price action and have a material effect on returns [2] Sentiments in Bitcoin drive the valuation of other cryptocurrency assets [3] Sentiments in Bitcoin drive returns in other cryptocurrency assets. Our results show that optimistic sentiments in Bitcoin drive overvaluation in Bitcoin itself and other cryptocurrency assets. Our results support the notion that liquidity measures are salient factors in price discovery. |
| Keywords: | Valuation, Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Digital Assets, sentiments, speculation |
| JEL: | D8 D84 G21 G24 G3 G32 G39 |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120866&r= |