|
on Investment |
| By: | Hartmut Egger; Udo Kreickemeier; Jens Wrona |
| Abstract: | This paper sets up a two-country model of offshoring with monopolistically competitive product and monopsonistically competitive labour markets. In our model, an incentive for offshoring exists even between symmetric countries, because shifting part of the production abroad reduces local labour demand and allows firms to more strongly execute their monopsonistic labour market power. However, offshoring between symmetric countries has negative welfare effects and therefore calls for policy intervention. In this context, we put forward the role of a common minimum wage and show that the introduction of a moderate minimum wage increases offshoring and reduces welfare. In contrast, a sizable minimum wage reduces offshoring and increases welfare. Beyond that, we also show that a sufficiently high common minimum wage cannot only eliminate offshoring but also inefficiencies in the resource allocation due to monopsonistic labour market distortions in closed economies. |
| Keywords: | offshoring, minimum wage, welfare effects |
| JEL: | F12 F16 F23 J42 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10920&r=inv |
| By: | Bergmann, Knut; Diermeier, Matthias; Kinderman, Daniel; Schroeder, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | Klassischerweise üben Vertreter der Wirtschaft sich jenseits der unmittelbaren Betroffenheit weitgehend parteipolitischer Enthaltsamkeit. Da sich in der Bundesrepublik mit der Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) eine von ihrer wirtschaftspolitischen Programmatik her liberal-rechtspopulistische Partei etabliert hat, ist auch hierzulande die Frage aufgekommen, wie sich die Wirtschaft - Verbände und Unternehmen - ihr gegenüber positionieren. Auf Grundlage einer quantitativen und qualitativen Befragung von Hauptgeschäftsführern von führenden Arbeitgeber- und Wirtschaftsverbänden lässt die vorliegende Untersuchung eine Ausgrenzungsstrategie der Wirtschaft gegenüber der AfD erkennen: Die verfasste Wirtschaft sieht kaum programmatische Überlappungen und bewertet die Partei vielmehr als vor allem politisches, aber auch ökonomisches Standortrisiko. Die Zweifel an der Verfassungstreue der Partei spiegeln sich unter anderem darin, dass der Partei auch personell durchweg die Regierungsfähigkeit abgesprochen wird. Trotzdem bestehen unter den Hauptgeschäftsführern Zweifel, inwiefern eine Ausgrenzung der Viktimisierungs-Strategie der AfD in die Karten spielen könnte und inwieweit sich diese Verweigerung überhaupt durchhalten lässt, sollten die Rechtspopulisten vermehrt in politische Verantwortung gewählt werden. |
| Abstract: | Traditionally, representatives of the business community largely practise abstinence from party-politics when they are not directly affected. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has established itself in Germany as a liberal-right-wing populist party in terms of its economic policy programme. Hence, the question has also arisen in Germany of how the business community - business associations and companies - position themselves with regard to the AfD. Based on a quantitative and qualitative survey of CEOs of leading employers' and business associations, this study reveals a strategy of exclusion by the business community towards the AfD: The organised business community sees hardly any programmatic overlaps and rather assesses the party as primarily a political, but also an economic location risk. The doubts about the party's loyalty to the constitution are reflected, among other things, in the fact that the party is also consistently denied the ability to govern in terms of its personnel. Nevertheless, there are doubts among the chief executives about the extent to which exclusion could play into the hands of the AfD's victimisation strategy. Furthermore, to what extent this refusal can even be sustained if the right-wing populists are increasingly elected to political responsibility. |
| Keywords: | Rechtspopulismus, Wirtschaftsverbände, Wirtschaftspolitik, gesellschaftliche Verantwortung, Right-wing populism, business organisations, economic policy, social responsibility |
| JEL: | P00 D71 D72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbccs:283899&r=inv |
| By: | Upton, Joanna; Duchoslav, Jan; Tennant, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | Southern Malawi has historically been less food secure than the rest of the country, and the current lean season will be no different. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee expects 2, 460, 000 people in the Southern Region (29% of its population) to require humanitarian assistance at the peak of the lean season in February and March 2024, compared to 1, 560, 000 people in the Central Region (18% of its population) and 388, 000 people in the Northern Region (15% of its population) (MVAC 2023). The Southern Region is home to 44% of Malawi’s population, but to 56% of those in need of humanitarian assistance. More people in the Southern Region are in danger of going hungry in the coming months than in the Central and Northern regions combined. But who are these people, what is behind their vulnerability, and what does the future have in store for them? |
| Keywords: | food security; households; maize; data; prices; cyclones; crop production; Eastern Africa; Africa; Malawi |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspn:52&r=inv |
| By: | Whitehead, Savannah Jolie |
| Abstract: | The research question at hand delves into the disparities in income or yearly earnings among racial and ethnic groups in the United States, while holding all other variables constant. This question is of paramount importance as it explores the existence of racial discrimination within the United States' supposedly equal-opportunity meritocratic society. By investigating the potential differences in income between individuals with the same level of education, we can shed light on the presence of systemic racial bias and its impact on economic outcomes. The population of interest in this study encompasses individuals from various racial and ethnic backgrounds residing in the United States (Sandefur, G. D., & Pahari, A. (1989). By examining different racial and ethnic groups, such as African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and Caucasians, we can gain a comprehensive understanding of income disparities across the nation . A diverse sample will provide a nuanced perspective on the influence of race in determining economic success (Greenman, E., & Xie, Y. (2008).To address the question at hand, it is crucial to distinguish between causality and correlation. While it may be tempting to attribute income disparities solely to racial discrimination, it is important to consider other factors that contribute to these disparities. Socioeconomic background, education, occupation choice, and geographic location are just a few examples of variables that may confound the relationship between race and income. Recognizing the distinction between causality and correlation allows for a more accurate analysis of the impact of race on earnings. |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:kgzad&r=inv |
| By: | Sobin Joseph; Shashi Jain |
| Abstract: | An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive literature has been dedicated to the non-parametric estimation of both the linear and non-linear Hawkes process, there remains a significant gap in the literature regarding the marked Hawkes process. In response to this, we propose a methodology for estimating the conditional intensity of the marked Hawkes process. We introduce two distinct models: \textit{Shallow Neural Hawkes with marks}- for Hawkes processes with excitatory kernels and \textit{Neural Network for Non-Linear Hawkes with Marks}- for non-linear Hawkes processes. Both these approaches take the past arrival times and their corresponding marks as the input to obtain the arrival intensity. This approach is entirely non-parametric, preserving the interpretability associated with the marked Hawkes process. To validate the efficacy of our method, we subject the method to synthetic datasets with known ground truth. Additionally, we apply our method to model cryptocurrency order book data, demonstrating its applicability to real-world scenarios. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.04740&r=inv |
| By: | Vincenzo Cuciniello (Bank of Italy); Claudio Michelacci (EIEF); Luigi Paciello (EIEF) |
| Abstract: | Business creation subsidies are a means for reducing firm debt and bankruptcy risk. Do they work? To answer the question, we consider a general equilibrium model where firms are financially constrained at entry and borrow in a competitive market by issuing long-term debt. A subsidy stimulates entry and market competition, which increases the bankruptcy rate of incumbent firms. If the subsidy is paid out ex ante to finance start-up expenditures, the subsidy reduces the debt and the bankruptcy rate of start-ups; if paid out ex post as a refund for start-up expenditures, the subsidy crowds out the equity rather than the debt of start-ups and their bankruptcy rate also increases. The model is calibrated to match North-South differences across Italian provinces. The optimal subsidy in the South is paid out entirely ex ante and yields an increase in welfare equivalent to almost one percent of consumption. When the same subsidy is paid out ex post as a proportion of 60 per cent, it results in a welfare loss of a similar amount. We discuss the implications for the ‘I Stay in the South’ policy recently introduced in Italy. |
| Keywords: | Firm dynamics, overborrowing, ratchet effect |
| JEL: | E44 E62 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1424_23&r=inv |
| By: | Dong, Mike (U of California, Riverside); Goto, Shingo (U of Rhode Island); Xu, Yan (Ohio State U); Zhang, Yuzhao (HKU) |
| Abstract: | We use a Beveridge-Nelson decomposition to link expected foreign-currency excess returns to the "prospective interest rate differential"--the infinite sum of expected future interest rate differentials. Empirically, we find our prospective interest rate differential is a stronger predictor of currency excess returns than carry, in both portfolio sorts and Fama-MacBeth regressions. A factor based on the prospective interest rate differential is also useful in explaining the returns of a broad set of currency test portfolios. |
| JEL: | E43 F31 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2024-03&r=inv |
| By: | Couts, Spencer J. (U of Southern California); Goncalves, Andrei S. (Ohio State U) |
| Abstract: | Private Commercial Real Estate (CRE) funds provide institutional investors an opportunity to access the CRE market, but most of them are inaccessible to typical individual (retail) investors. In this paper, we study the early performance (2016 to 2023) of a special and emerging class of non-listed CRE funds that are accessible to individual investors. These funds, referred to as Net Asset Value (NAV) Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), have grown in importance over the last decade. They now represent a major alternative to publicly traded REITs in providing individual investors a way to access CRE investments without direct ownership. We find that the observed returns from these NAV REITs suffer from smoothness due to lagged pricing updates, and thus unsmoothing returns is important for studying their risk-adjusted performance. We then show that NAV REITs have delivered large alphas relative to public indices over our sample period. Finally, we highlight that traditional alpha analysis may not be adequate for a short sample like ours and provide an alternative alpha analysis that indicates the alphas of NAV REITs over our sample period were economically meaningful, albeit substantially lower than traditional alpha analysis suggests. |
| JEL: | G11 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2024-01&r=inv |
| By: | Lynn Bergeland Morgan (University of Texas at Dallas); Peter C. B. Phillips (Yale University); Donggyu Sul (University of Texas at Dallas) |
| Abstract: | This paper points out some pitfalls in the use of two-way fixed effects (TWFE) regressions when outcome variables contain nonlinear or stochastic trend components. When a policy change shifts trend paths of outcome variables conventional TWFE estimation can distort results and invalidate inference. A robust solution is proposed by identifying determinants of dynamic club membership based on the idea of relative convergence, which can be assessed empirically by the so-called ÔlogtÕ test (Phillips & Sul, 2007a). Club membership in each time period is estimated by recursive regression, transforming outcome variables to statistically stable, stationary status. Time varying club membership can then be used to identify the determinants of club memberships by running a panel logit or ordered logit regression. This approach is applied to study COVID-19 vaccination data across 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC). A new weekly database is created to track individual state and DC vaccination policies and mandates over the period from March 2021 to February 2022. Initially two convergent clubs are identified. Later evidence of the vaccination rates across states reveals a single convergent club. The primary determinant of this merger of sub-clubs is found to be federal-level vaccine mandates. |
| Date: | 2023–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2380&r=inv |
| By: | Richiardi, Matteo; Bronka, Patryk; van de Ven, Justin |
| Abstract: | We analyse the complex dynamic feedback effects between different life domains over the life course, providing a quantification of the direct (not mediated) and indirect (mediated) effects. To extend the analysis in scope and time beyond limitation of existing data, we use a rich dynamic microsimulation model of individual life course trajectories parameterised and validated to the UK context. We interpret findings in terms of the implied attenuation or reinforcement mechanisms at play, and discuss implications for health and economic inequalities. |
| Date: | 2024–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:cempwp:cempa2-24&r=inv |
| By: | Gutierrez-Lythgoe, Antonio |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the analysis of residential demand in Spain, focusing on various energy goods such as electricity, natural gas, and fuels for personal vehicles. Employing an approach based on the QUAIDS model and using data from the 2022 Household Budget Survey from the Spanish National Statistics Institute, the potential endogeneity of expenditure is considered to ensure robust results. The findings reveal that electricity exhibits an inelastic demand, strengthening its status as an essential good, while natural gas and fuels for personal vehicles are characterized by elastic demand, classifying them as luxuries based on expenditure elasticities. Furthermore, disparities in price and expenditure elasticities are documented concerning various sociodemographic realities, with the most pronounced differences observed in households headed by unemployed individuals. |
| Keywords: | Electricity; Natural Gas; Fuels; QUAIDS; Residential Demand |
| JEL: | C30 Q20 Q30 Q40 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120229&r=inv |
| By: | Gomez-Ruiz, Marcela (Autonomous University of Barcelona); Cervini-Plá, María (Universitat de Girona); Ramos, Xavier (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of a change in the gender composition of the pool of candidates on the academic performance of women in an entrance exam. We use data from a natural experiment that altered the gender composition of the candidates for a nation-wide admission exam to a coding educational program. Our identification strategy exploits the fact that both men and women were accepted for the admission exam in all years except for 2019, when only women were allowed to take it. Our results reveal that in the absence of men, women exhibit enhanced performance, particularly in subjects where men do traditionally better, such as mathematics and logical reasoning. Conversely, we observe no significant effects in verbal tasks, where men do not typically outperform. The improvement in performance stems from both increased attempts at questions and a higher rate of correct answers. Women improve their academic performance by exerting greater effort when men are not present. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the stereotype threat is deactivated in the absence of men, highlighting the nuanced impact of gender composition on women's performance in high-stakes exams. |
| Keywords: | gender, performance, effort, stereotype threat, competition |
| JEL: | I20 I24 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16782&r=inv |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2024–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/042&r=inv |
| By: | Patrick, Ruth; Andersen, Kate |
| Abstract: | The two-child limit restricts the child element in Universal Credit and Tax Credits to two children in a household (for children born after April 2017). One objective of the two-child limit is to influence the fertility decisions of parents in (or at risk of) poverty; therefore it is especially important to explore and understand its fertility effects. Previous analysis of administrative birth records suggests that the two-child limit had only a very small impact on the fertility of third and subsequent births in England and Wales. In this paper, we contrast the policy assumptions underpinning the two-child limit with everyday realities of fertility decision making. To do this, we draw on qualitative interviews conducted with those directly affected by the policy. This reveals a series of mismatches between policy presentation and lived realities, which help explain the absence of sizeable fertility effects. This also points to the importance of better and more sustained engagement with qualitative evidence in the design and review of policies. It is especially vital to continue to monitor the impact of the two-child limit, given the extent of the harms it can cause, and its status as an internationally unusual and significant policy. |
| Keywords: | two-child limit; fertility; policy narratives; everyday realities; welfare reform; poverty |
| JEL: | I38 |
| Date: | 2022–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121570&r=inv |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | The literature has not extensively examined the dangers of digital-only financial inclusion. The purpose of this chapter is to highlight the dangers of digital-only financial inclusion (DOFI). Using the discourse analysis method, the study showed that digital-only financial inclusion may be difficult to achieve when there is uneven availability and uneven access to digital devices. It was also argued that digital-only financial inclusion could lead to high cost of internet broadband, and it places much emphasis on accelerating digital access rather than protecting users who use digital finance platforms. Furthermore, it pays little attention to risk mitigation, and produces digital ID schemes that enable government surveillance. It also prioritizes digital access rather than financial health; and makes it easier to perpetrate fraud using digital means. Finally, it can enable the endless pursuit of power, and it prioritizes a digital version of financial inclusion at any cost. As much as possible, the strategies used to advance financial inclusion should not be too dependent on digital technologies because they only offer digital access and more access but may not improve the financial health of users in a significant way. |
| Keywords: | digital-only financial inclusion, digital financial inclusion, financial inclusion. |
| JEL: | G00 G20 I31 I38 I39 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120152&r=inv |
| By: | Picchetti, Fernando (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | O presente texto busca apresentar diferentes modelos de análise diferencia-estrutural (Shift-Share em inglês) e aplicá-los em um estudo de caso da economia do Chile no período de 2013-2022. Neste período, observou-se uma queda e posterior apreciação do preço internacional do cobre – um dos produtos mais relevantes da produção nacional chilena – que favoreceu as regiões mineradoras localizadas na área mais ao norte do país. Contudo, o efeito foi desigual mesmo entre as áreas com alta concentração de cobre e, por isso, a análise diferencial-estrutural mostra-se frutífera por permitir entender as diferenças regionais. As principais questões apresentadas são: as regiões mineradoras conseguiram resistir à depreciação do preço do cobre? Conseguiram aproveitar os efeitos da apreciação subsequente? O boom do preço do cobre induz uma concentração de empregos no setor mineral ou tem um efeito multiplicador que proporciona um crescimento em outros setores? Os resultados mostram que a resposta para essas questões varia entre as regiões e para entender essa miríade de possibilidades seriam necessários estudos mais específicos do que a análise diferencial-estrutural, cuja metodologia permite apenas uma visão exploratória dos dados. |
| Keywords: | Chile; Insumo-Produto; Shift-Share |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2024–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2024_001&r=inv |
| By: | Jean-Marc Gravellini (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | Le contexte général au Mali, au Burkina Faso et au Niger est caractérisé par l'empilement d'une multitude de crises aux temporalités différentes qui se croisent et créent aujourd'hui un environnement propice à un embrasement généralisé. De manière quasi-structurelle, il faut malheureusement déplorer dans ces pays l'échec des politiques publiques sociales comme économiques. Quelques indicateurs le montrent indéniablement. Le rapport 2021-2022 de l'indice de développement humain (IDH) du Programme des Nations unies pour le développement révèle que le Niger est classé 189e sur 191 pays, alors que le Mali se positionne à la 186e place et le Burkina Faso à la 184e . |
| Keywords: | sahel, Vulnérabilité, Crise économique et sociale |
| Date: | 2024–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04455167&r=inv |
| By: | Aurélie Ouss (University of Pennsylvania); Arnaud Philippe (University of Bristol [Bristol]) |
| Abstract: | Présentation Cette note explore l'effet des politiques pénales sur les décisions de justice et sur la récidive. Elle part de deux constats. Premièrement, il y a un écart considérable entre les peines maximales établies par le code pénal et les sanctions effectivement prononcées par les juridictions. Deuxièmement, il y a eu de nombreuses réformes modifiant les sanctions prévues par le code pénal, la plupart accentuant leur rigueur. Ces réformes influencent-elles les pratiques pénales ? Les auteurs montrent que la grande majorité des changements ciblent des délits rarement ou jamais utilisés et n'ont donc aucun effet sur les verdicts. Par ailleurs, les réformes ciblant des crimes et délits plus fréquemment utilisés n'influencent en pratique pas les décisions de justice. Il y a donc un décalage croissant entre le code pénal et les pratiques pénales, contribuant à une impression de laxisme du système judiciaire. Deux options existent pour réduire cet écart : diminuer les peines maximales prévues, ou augmenter les peines effectives pour les rapprocher du maximum. Nous montrons que la seconde option aurait pour effet d'augmenter considérablement le taux d'incarcération et le coût pour les finances publiques de la justice pénale. Résultats clés Les peines prononcées pour des délits représentent en moyenne 8%du maximum prévu par le code pénal, contre 45% pour les crimes. Les multiples réformes du code pénal, bien qu'elles augmentent les peines potentielles, n'ont pas d'impact sur les décisions de justice. Cela ne fait qu'accroître l'écart conséquent entre les peines possibles et celles effectivement prononcées, posant un problème de compréhension de la loi et de dissuasion. Réduire cet écart en augmentant les peines prononcées aboutirait à des taux d'incarcération extraordinairement élevés, même en faisant l'hypothèse d'effets dissuasifs importants Outre les conséquences sociales d'un tel changement, il impliquerait des dépenses intenables pour les finances publiques : le budget courant de l'administration pénitentiaire devrait augmenter d'au moins 12 milliards d'euros, et l'investissement nécessaire atteindrait entre 60 et 100 milliards d'euros. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-04439196&r=inv |
| By: | Gulia Bovini (Bank of Italy); Niccolò Cattadori (Zurich University); Marta De Philippis (Bank of Italy); Paolo Sestito (Bank of ItalyClassification-JEL: H40, I21, I24, J13, J21) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the short- and medium-term effects of longer school days in primary education on student learning and on mothers’ labor supply. To tackle selection into the full-time (FT) scheme, we rely on a novel data set of primary-school application forms. We are thus able to control for parental preferences and to exploit the non-linear variation in the probability of attending the FT scheme that stems from the mix of FT and part-time applications a school receives and caps on class-sizes set by law. We show that attendance in the FT scheme does increase test scores in Math in grades 2 and 5 and scores in Italian in grade 2, but also that these effects are completely offset by the time students reach grade 8. Conversely, there is a positive and long-lasting impact on maternal labor force participation. Finally, we find some evidence of negative selection on gains, as the groups of students and mothers who would stand to benefit the most from FT are neither those more likely to apply for the FT scheme nor those whose applications for FT are more likely to be accepted. |
| Keywords: | School hours, Female labor supply, Selection into treatment, Student learning |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1423_23&r=inv |
| By: | Cooper, Kerris; Obolenskaya, Polina |
| Abstract: | Published crime statistics show that following a long-term decline in violent crime there has been a flattening out in recent years and certain types of violent crime have increased. This research note examines who is most at risk of violence and how this has changed over time, focusing on the characteristics of sex, age, disability and ethnicity. Findings show that while violence significantly declined overall between 2004/05 and 2018/19, it did not decrease across all groups in the population. |
| JEL: | I00 |
| Date: | 2022–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121519&r=inv |
| By: | Dr. Romain Baeriswyl; Alex Oktay; Dr. Marc-Antoine Ramelet |
| Abstract: | We find that the response of stock prices to the exchange rate reflects a currency denomination effect—that is, a change in the relative international value of firms’ cash flows and equity—rather than a change in domestic economic conditions. To do so, we compute exogenous movements for the Swiss franc on SNB announcement days and trace their effects on Swiss stocks. Exploiting firm heterogeneity reveals that the prices of stocks with foreign-denominated cash flows are considerably more sensitive to the exchange rate. Using the staggered introduction of American Depositary Receipts in Switzerland, we provide causal evidence that cross-listing markedly amplifies the sensitivity of domestic stock prices to exchange rate fluctuations, consistent with the law of one price. Stock market movements that follow central bank announcements should therefore be interpreted with caution because they partially reflect parity movements and not only economic information. |
| Keywords: | International asset pricing, Law of one price, Exchange rate shocks, Cross-listing |
| JEL: | F31 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2023-05&r=inv |
| By: | Fabio Braggion; Felix von Meyerinck; Nic Schaub; Michael Weber |
| Abstract: | We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations. German households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today, after partialling out determinants of historical inflation and current inflation expectations . Our evidence points towards transmission of inflation experiences from parents to children and through collective memory. Differential historical inflation also modulates the updating of expectations to current inflation, the response to economic policies affecting inflation, and financial decisions. We obtain similar results for Polish households residing in formerly German areas. Overall, our findings are consistent with inflationary shocks having a long-lasting impact on attitudes towards inflation. |
| JEL: | D14 E31 E71 G41 N14 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32160&r=inv |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | China has enjoyed decades of impressive growth, which has significantly improved living standards and largely eradicated extreme poverty. The growth has, however, been accompanied by widening imbalances and rising vulnerabilities, as excessive investment in infrastructure and housing has resulted in rising debt levels among property developers, local governments (LG), and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). The authorities have proactively sought to contain developer leverage. This has contributed to a significant, but needed, adjustment in the property market that continues to weigh on economic activity, including through its impact on LG finances. Amid these structural challenges, the authorities have appropriately announced their goal to transition to high quality growth while tackling risks from the property sector and LG debt. |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/038&r=inv |
| By: | Crispino Marta (Bank of Italy); Francesco Paolo Conteduca (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the methodology underlying the matching between non-EU counterparts in the Italian Customs and Monopolies Agency data and firms in the Bureau van Dijk Orbis database. Through different validation exercises, we show that the matches stemming from our proposed procedure are largely correct regarding both records and transaction values. The resulting corresponding tables can serve as a useful tool to shed light on the features of the counterparts of Italian firms active in international trade. |
| Keywords: | record linkage, big data integration, customs data, balance sheet data, name harmonization, blocking, entity matching |
| JEL: | C81 F14 D22 C55 C88 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_823_23&r=inv |
| By: | Fatouros, Nikos |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect that higher natural disaster frequency has on economic outcomes. Even if there is clear evidence that natural disaster incidents are not only going to be more frequent but will also start affecting a wider pool of countries, research has not yet analyzed the economic impact of the interaction between climate change and more frequent extreme rare events. With this study, we try to unveil the mechanisms through which natural disasters and climate change are interconnected, as well as provide policy insights regarding the adoption of greener inputs, in the form of green capital. Our findings suggest that raising temperatures are expected to negatively affect consumption as well as increase debt. We also show that under “green” technology adaptation, countries are projected to achieve higher levels of consumption and welfare. |
| Keywords: | Green Technologies, Natural Disasters, Climate Change, Sustainable Growth |
| JEL: | E60 O11 Q51 Q52 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120162&r=inv |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic imbalances built during the pandemic have been largely resolved, supported by strong policy responses. Inequality has declined somewhat but remains high. Weak investment and potential growth are constraining income convergence to advanced economies. Policy priorities have shifted toward making the economy more dynamic, inclusive, and greener, but the government is struggling to pass reforms in a fragmented parliament. The December referendum which rejected the draft constitution has reduced lingering uncertainty by bringing the process to a close for the coming years. |
| Date: | 2024–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/041&r=inv |
| By: | Shterionov, D. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); De Sisto, M. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Müller, M. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Landuyt, D. Van; Omardeen, R.; Oboyle, S.; Braffort, A.; Roelofsen, F.; Blain, F. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Vanroy, B.; Avramidis, E. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:1e05f360-c6e2-4a24-8e2f-37e2fc42e7ed&r=inv |
| By: | Michele Cascarano (Bank of Italy); Filippo Natoli (Bank of Italy); Andrea Petrella (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Climate change has long-term effects on the size and composition of a country's business sector. Using administrative data on the universe of Italian firms, we find that an increase in the number of very hot days per year persistently reduces the growth rate of active firms in the market in the medium run. This is due to a drop in firm entry and an increase in firm exit, with relocation playing a minor role. A firm-level investigation reveals a dichotomy between firms that persistently suffer as a result of higher temperatures and those that improve their profitability by adapting to a hotter climate: a combination of size and age best identifies the two groups, where older, smaller-sized firms lie at one extreme and younger, larger firms at the other. According to an average climate scenario, the projected evolution of local temperatures will impact firm demography further, also exacerbating the divergent effects across warmer and colder areas over the current decade. |
| Keywords: | climate change, temperatures, firm dynamics |
| JEL: | D22 R12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1418_23&r=inv |
| By: | Fabian Gaessler (University Pompeu Fabra , Barcelona School of Management, Barcelona School of Economics, MPI-IC); Dietmar Harhoff (MPI-IC, LMU Munich, CEPR); Stefan Sorg (MPI-IC); Georg von Graevenitz (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | We study the blocking effect of patents on follow-on innovation by others. We posit that follow-on innovation requires freedom to operate (FTO), which firms typically obtain through a license from the patentee holding the original innovation. Where licensing fails, follow-on innovation is blocked unless firms gain FTO through patent invalidation. Using large-scale data from post-grant oppositions at the European Patent Office, we find that patent invalidation increases follow-on innovation, measured in citations, by 16% on average. This effect exhibits a U-shape in the value of the original innovation. For patents on low-value original innovations, invalidation predominantly increases low-value followon innovation outside the patentee’s product market. Here, transaction costs likely exceed the joint surplus of licensing, causing licensing failure. In contrast, for patents on high-value original innovations, invalidation mainly increases high-value follow-on innovation in the patentee’s product market. We attribute this latter result to rent dissipation, which renders patentees unwilling to license out valuable technologies to (potential) competitors. |
| Keywords: | follow-on innovation; freedom to operate; licensing; patents; opposition; |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2024–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:494&r=inv |
| By: | Li, Tuobang |
| Abstract: | Descriptive statistics for parametric models are currently highly sensative to departures, gross errors, and/or random errors. Here, leveraging the structures of parametric distributions and their central moment kernel distributions, a class of estimators, consistent simultanously for both a semiparametric distribution and a distinct parametric distribution, is proposed. These efficient estimators are robust to both gross errors and departures from parametric assumptions, making them ideal for estimating the mean and central moments of common unimodal distributions. This article also illuminates the understanding of the common nature of probability distributions and the measures of them. |
| Date: | 2024–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5jmz9&r=inv |
| By: | Quentin Lepetit (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Vincent Viguié (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Charlotte Liotta (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, TU - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin) |
| Abstract: | This work presents a gridded dataset on real estate and transportation in 192 worldwide urban areas, obtained from the Google Maps API and the web scraping of real estate websites. For each city of the sample, these data have been associated with the corresponding population density and land cover data, extracted from the GHS POP and ESA CCI data respectively, and aggregated on a 1 km resolution grid, allowing for an integrated analysis. This dataset is the first to include spatialized real estate and transportation data in a large sample of cities covering 800 million people in both developed and developing countries. These data can be used as inputs for urban modeling purposes, transport modeling, or between-city comparisons in urban forms and transportation networks, and allow further analyses on e.g. urban sprawl, access to transportation, or equity in housing prices and access to transportation. |
| Keywords: | Cities, Urban form, Land cover, Urban economics, Real estate, Transportation |
| Date: | 2023–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04433873&r=inv |
| By: | Joshua C. Yang; Marcin Korecki; Damian Dailisan; Carina I. Hausladen; Dirk Helbing |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the voting behaviors of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly OpenAI's GPT4 and LLaMA2, and their alignment with human voting patterns. Our approach included a human voting experiment to establish a baseline for human preferences and a parallel experiment with LLM agents. The study focused on both collective outcomes and individual preferences, revealing differences in decision-making and inherent biases between humans and LLMs. We observed a trade-off between preference diversity and alignment in LLMs, with a tendency towards more uniform choices as compared to the diverse preferences of human voters. This finding indicates that LLMs could lead to more homogenized collective outcomes when used in voting assistance, underscoring the need for cautious integration of LLMs into democratic processes. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.01766&r=inv |
| By: | Sergiu Ghica (University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents William Lane Craig as a proponent of classical apologetics and explores his influence on the content and structure of contemporary discussions. These dialogues encompass a wide spectrum, ranging from historical studies of Jesus and His resurrection to cosmological and moral evidence of God's existence, as well as the coherence of Christian theism. In the last part of this paper, we will highlight Craig's notable contribution to the contemporary field of apologetics. |
| Keywords: | classical apologetics, Christian faith, evidence, truth, kalÄ m cosmological argument |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0315&r=inv |
| By: | Theo Drossidis (Brunel University); Haroon Mumtaz (Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics & Finance); Angeliki Theophilopoulou (Brunel University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses high frequency data on the distribution of US income to investigatethe heterogeneous effects of oil supply news shocks. Using a FAVAR with an external instrument, We show that these shocks have large negative effects on the left and right tail of the distribution. For low income individuals, the effect is driven by a decline in wages and proprietor’s income, while a fall in corporate profits and interest income drives the effect for affluent individuals. |
| Keywords: | Oil shock; income inequality; FAVAR; External instrument identification. |
| JEL: | O23 E32 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:975&r=inv |
| By: | Emanuel Kohlscheen; Richhild Moessner; Elod Takats |
| Abstract: | We provide ex-post empirical analysis of the effects of climate policies on carbon dioxide emissions at the aggregate national level. Our results are based on a comprehensive database of 121 countries. As climate policies we examine carbon taxes and emissions trading systems (ETS), as well as the overall stringency of climate policies. We use dynamic panel regressions, controlling for macroeconomic factors such as economic development, GDP growth, urbanisation, as well as the energy mix. We find that higher carbon taxes and prices of permits in ETS reduce carbon emissions. An increase in carbon taxes by $10 per ton of CO2 reduces CO2 emissions per capita by 1.3% in the short run and by 4.6% in the long run. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.03800&r=inv |
| By: | Goranka Stanicst (School of Art and Design, Croatia); Sandra Bacic (School of Art and Design, Croatia); Branka Kozuh (School of Art and Design, Croatia) |
| Abstract: | We are witnessing the development and opening of an increasing number of art schools and colleges. The curriculum covered by these organizations is versatile and comprehensive encompassing various emerging branches. However, a fundamental question arises: can inspired works of art be created when they are dictated by market demands and order, and to what extent mediocrity and kitsch are involved in such a process? Commercialism, pop, and marketing are susceptible areas when we talk about creation. The pandemic and the lockdown provided a unique opportunity to think, envision the future, and express our ideas. Art in the field of the market is looking for its place. Education needs to be directed and distracted from the automatic repetition of facts by increasing the level of "general culture" and encouraging pupils and students to focus on problem-solving so that they can use all available materials and resources. This kind of education enables the development of innovation rather than the complete repetition of facts. Nowadays, various media platforms and libraries inundate society with ideas and information. Progressing personally and contributing to society requires hard work. History represents the past, while homology teaches us how to upgrade and shape knowledge, but if we get stuck learning, we risk perpetuating old patterns through imitation. Therefore, it is crucial to look ahead, address problems and facilitate the enrichment of humanity's collective experience while upholding ethical principles and moral imperatives. This article emphasizes that art has a special place in this dynamic world. |
| Keywords: | art, product, marketing, education, innovation, creativity |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0279&r=inv |
| By: | Marc Schmitt |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the integration of Explainable Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) in the realm of financial engineering, specifically focusing on its application in credit decision-making. The rapid evolution of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in finance has necessitated a balance between sophisticated algorithmic decision-making and the need for transparency in these systems. The focus is on how AutoML can streamline the development of robust machine learning models for credit scoring, while Explainable AI (XAI) methods, particularly SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), provide insights into the models' decision-making processes. This study demonstrates how the combination of AutoML and XAI not only enhances the efficiency and accuracy of credit decisions but also fosters trust and collaboration between humans and AI systems. The findings underscore the potential of explainable AutoML in improving the transparency and accountability of AI-driven financial decisions, aligning with regulatory requirements and ethical considerations. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.03806&r=inv |