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on Investment |
| By: | Gόrnicka, Lucyna; Koester, Gerrit; Radowski, Daniel; Gautier, Erwan; Peinado, Mario Izquierdo; Stiglbauer, Alfred; Wittekopf, David; Puente, Sergio; Duarte, Claudia; Martins, Fernando; Basso, Gaetano; Lydon, Reamonn; Ploj, Gasper; Polemidiotis, Marios; Pönkä, Harri; Obstbaum, Meri; Petroulas, Pavlos; Veiga, Cindy; Beka, Jan; Benatti, Nicola; Fagandini, Bruno; Healy, Peter; Nizzi, Raffaella; Colonna, Fabrizio; Volkerink, Maikel; Antonopoulos, Christos; Bing, Matthias; Piryankov, Evgeni; Jimenez, Angel Luis Gomez; Saks, Yves; Coppens, Barbara; D’Amuri, Francesco; Zajankauskaitė, Justina; Pribuišis, Kristupas; Lindič, Mojca; Doliak, Michal; Monza, Aurora; Llevadot, Marc Roca i; Polichetti, Gaetano; Gardin, Giulia |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces innovative, newly developed forward-looking indicators of negotiated wage growth in the euro area using data on collective bargaining agreements from seven countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Greece. The paper demonstrates how agreement-level data can be used to study drivers of aggregate negotiated wage growth, as well as monitor the breadth of wage increases and account for time-varying factors such as one-off payments, when assessing wage pressures. Lastly, the paper shows that the new indicators can provide reliable signals about current and future developments of wage pressures in the euro area while also serving as important cross-checking tools for negotiated wage growth forecasts. JEL Classification: E24, J31, J50 |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining, negotiated wages, wage forecasting, wage rigidity |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024338&r=inv |
| By: | Cruz-e-Silva, Victor |
| Abstract: | The early decades of the twentieth century witnessed a far-reaching growth in empirical exercises designed to measure the cost of living. Brazil was no exception to this movement, and the first studies of this nature for that country surfaced between 1935 and 1939. Among these, three deserve special attention for the soundness of their construction. These are the exercises of Horace Davis, Samuel Lowrie, and Bruno Rudolfer, professors of the Free School of Sociology and Politics of São Paulo, which investigated the cost of living in connection with the pursuit of a proper minimum wage in Brazil. The aim of this article is to revisit their pioneering efforts to measure the cost of living and to indicate how these studies touched upon the search for a minimum wage in Brazil. |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gz2wp&r=inv |
| By: | Ortiz, Marco; Inca, Arthur; Solf, Fabrizio |
| Abstract: | Nominal GDP targeting (NGDP) rules have gained attention as a potential alternative to traditional models of monetary policy. In this paper, we extend the analysis of the welfare implications of NGDP rules within a New Keynesian model with nominal price and wage rigidities. Using a welfare function derived from the utility of consumers, we compare the NGDP target with a domestic inflation target, a CPI inflation target, and a Taylor rule in a small open economy scenario. Our simulations reveal that NGDP rules confer advantages on a central bank when the economy faces supply shocks, while their performance against demand shocks is comparable to that of a CPI target rule. These findings suggest that NGDP targeting could be a useful policy framework for central banks seeking to enhance their ability to stabilize the economy. |
| Keywords: | Nominal GDP targeting, optimal monetary policy, General equilibrium, open economy macroeconomics. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119999&r=inv |
| By: | Bailey, Martha J. (University of California, Los Angeles); Byker, Tanya (Middlebury College); Patel, Elena (University of Utah); Ramnath, Shanthi (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California's 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women's employment, earnings, and childbearing. A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the weeks of paid leave available under the law. We find no evidence that CPFL increased employment, boosted earnings, or encouraged childbearing, suggesting that CPFL had little effect on the gender pay gap or child penalty. For first-time mothers, we find that CPFL reduced employment and earnings roughly a decade after they gave birth. |
| Keywords: | leave taking, gender, maternity leave, labor market, gender gap, regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | J08 J16 J71 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16756&r=inv |
| By: | Rahman Khorramfar; Osman Ozaltin; Reha Uzsoy; Karl Kempf |
| Abstract: | We study the management of product transitions in a semiconductor manufacturing firm that requires the coordination of resource allocation decisions by multiple, autonomous Product Divisions using a multi-follower bilevel model to capture the hierarchical and decentralized nature of this decision process. Corporate management, acting as the leader, seeks to maximize the firm's total profit over a finite horizon. The followers consist of multiple Product Divisions that must share manufacturing and engineering resources to develop, produce and sell products in the market. Each Product Division needs engineering capacity to develop new products, and factory capacity to produce products for sale while also producing the prototypes and samples needed for the product development process. We model this interdependency between Product Divisions as a generalized Nash equilibrium problem at the lower level and propose a reformulation where Corporate Management acts as the leader to coordinate the resource allocation decisions. We then derive an equivalent single-level reformulation and develop a cut-and-column generation algorithm. Extensive computational experiments evaluate the performance of the algorithm and provide managerial insights on how key parameters and the distribution of decision authority affect system performance. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.17402&r=inv |
| By: | Leigh, Andrew (Parliament of Australia) |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence has the potential to be a valuable competitive force in product and service markets. Yet AI may also pose competitive problems. I identify five big challenges that AI poses for competition. (1) Costly chips. (2) Private data. (3) Network effects. (4) Immobile talent. (5) An 'open-first, closed-later' model. These are not just issues for our competition regulators, but also for competition reformers. Just as antitrust laws needed to be updated to deal with the misbehaviour of the oil titans and rail barons of nineteenth century America, so too we may need to make changes in competition laws to address the challenges that AI poses. |
| Keywords: | competition, antitrust, artificial intelligence |
| JEL: | L40 L63 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp209&r=inv |
| By: | Takeda, Midori; Xie, Jun; Kurita, Kenichi; Managi, Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | Today, most healthcare costs in Japan depend on insurance premiums and public funds. Since the working population supports both groups, it will be difficult to maintain medical expenses in the future due to further declining birth rates and an aging society. Therefore, the sustainability of hospitals is a serious issue. While many methods have been developed to evaluate hospital performance and effectiveness, only some have been used to evaluate sustainability. Against this background, this study develops a comprehensive evaluation system that integrates ESG and digital transformation (DX) into a hospital efficiency and effectiveness assessment. We utilize open databases on hospital performance, financial reports, and scraped information disclosed on hospital websites. SBM (slack-based model)-DEA and super efficiency SBM-DEA were combined to assess hospital sustainability, including overall sustainability and three dimensions of hospital efficiency, effectiveness, and ESG/DX. The results showed that ESG/DX performance, efficiency, and effectiveness positively correlated with hospital sustainability in all groups of hospitals. It also showed that while effectiveness and ESG/DX performance positively contribute to operational efficiency in smaller hospitals, ESG/DX performance negatively contributes to profitability. In rehabilitation hospitals, effectiveness contributes negatively to profitability, indicating that improving effectiveness requires more significant costs than in other hospitals. These findings indicated that while ESG, DX, and effectiveness improve hospital sustainability, the costs of promoting ESG/DX are significant for smaller and rehabilitation hospitals. This index could benefit hospital management and policy recommendations regarding promoting ESG and DX. |
| Keywords: | Hospital; Sustainability; ESG; SBM-DEA; Super-efficiency DEA |
| JEL: | D24 M14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119930&r=inv |
| By: | Lin, Jessie; Johnson, Michael; Gale, Fred |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339526&r=inv |
| By: | Dario Guarascio; Alessandro Piccirillo; Jelena Reljic |
| Abstract: | This study conducts a meta-analysis to assess the effects of robotization on employment and wages, compiling data from 33 studies with 644 estimates on employment and a subset of 19 studies with 195 estimates on wages. We identify a publication bias towards negative outcomes, especially concerning wages. After correcting for this bias, the actual impact appears minimal. Thus, concerns about the disruptive effects of robots on employment and the risk of widespread technological unemployment may be exaggerated or not yet empirically supported. While this does not preclude that robots will be capable of gaining greater disruptive potential in the future or that they are not already disruptive in specific contexts, the evidence to date suggests their aggregate effect is negligible. |
| Keywords: | robots; employment; wages; meta-analysis; publication bias |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J24 J31 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp245&r=inv |
| By: | Konstantin Offer (Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Center for Adaptive Rationality (ARC), Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany); Dorothee Mischkowski (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn and Leiden University, The Netherlands); Zoe Rahwan (Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Center for Adaptive Rationality (ARC), Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany); Christoph Engel (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) |
| Abstract: | Why do people punish experienced unfairness if it induces costs for both the punisher and punished person(s) without any direct material benefits for the punisher? Economic theories of fairness propose that punishers experience disutility from disadvantageous inequality and punish in order to establish equality in outcomes. We tested these theories in a modified Ultimatum Game (N = 1, 370) by examining whether people avoid the urge to reject unfair offers, and thereby punish the proposer, by deliberately blinding themselves to unfairness. We found that 53% of participants deliberately ignored whether they had received an unfair offer. Among these participants, only 6% of unfair offers were rejected. In contrast, participants who actively sought information rejected 39% of unfair offers. Averaging these rejection rates to 21%, no significant difference to the rejection rate by participants who were directly informed about unfairness was found––in line with economic theories of fairness. We interpret these findings as evidence for sorting behavior: People who want to punish experienced unfairness seek information about it, while those who are unwilling to punish deliberately ignore it. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2024_06&r=inv |
| By: | Beile, Judith; Vitols, Katrin |
| Abstract: | Seit dem 1. Januar 2023 gilt in Deutschland das Lieferkettengesetz, das global agierende Unternehmen mit Sitz in Deutschland verpflichtet darauf zu achten, dass in ihren oft weltweiten Lieferketten keine Menschenrechtsverletzungen passieren und dass Arbeitsstandards eingehalten werden. Judith Beile und Katrin Vitols haben untersucht, inwiefern große börsennotierte Unternehmen in Deutschland ihrer Sorgfaltspflicht in der Lieferkette nachkommen und welche ersten Erfahrungen mit dem deutschen Lieferkettengesetz vorliegen. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt der Studie liegt auf der Frage, wie die Akteure der Mitbestimmung das Lieferkettengesetz nutzen können. |
| Keywords: | Richtlinie, Sorgfaltspflichten, Zulieferer, Risikoanalyse, Beschwerdeverfahren |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:283001&r=inv |
| By: | Porreca, Zachary |
| Abstract: | Bride kidnapping is a form of forced marriage in which a woman is taken against her will and coerced into accepting marriage with her captor. Post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan has seen a large increase in the prominence of this practice alongside a revitalization of traditional values and culture. As part of this resurgence of Kyrgyz identity and culture, the central government has formalized the authority of councils of elders called aksakals as an arbitrator for local dispute resolution- guided by informal principles of tradition and cultural norm adherence. Bride kidnapping falls within the domain of aksakal authority. In this study, I leverage data from a nationally representative survey and specify a latent class nested logit model of mens' marriage modality choice to analyze the impacts that aksakal governance has on the decision to kidnap. Based on value assessment questions on the survey, men are assigned to a probability distribution over latent class membership. Utility function parameters for each potential marriage modality are estimated for each latent class of men. Results suggest that living under aksakal governance makes men 9% more likely to obtain a wife through bride capture, with men substituting kidnapping for choice marriage modalities such as elopement and standard love marriages. |
| Keywords: | Bride Kidnapping, Forced Marriage, Informal Institutions, Kyrgyzstan |
| JEL: | J12 K42 N35 P37 O17 J16 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1391&r=inv |
| By: | Evžen Kočenda; Michala Moravcová; Evžen Kocenda |
| Abstract: | We analyze (frequency) connectedness and portfolio hedging among U.S. energy commodities from 1997 to 2023. We show that the total connectedness increased over time, likely due to the increasing financialization of energy commodities. It fluctuates with respect to (i) different investment horizons and (ii) different periods of distress. The early stage of the Russia-Ukraine war is associated with the highest systemic risk, followed by the Covid-19 pandemic and global financial crisis (GFC). In the frequency domain, the results imply that investors perceive the greatest risk at longer investment horizons, particularly during the three major distress periods. We also show that despite it is difficult and more costly to diversify an energy portfolio during distress periods, adding natural gas seems to bring non-marginal diversification benefits. |
| Keywords: | connectedness, volatility spillovers, frequency decomposition, portfolio weights and hedge ratios, energy commodities, distress |
| JEL: | C58 F65 G15 Q34 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10889&r=inv |
| By: | Maurer, Stephan Ernst; Schwerdt, Guido; Wiederhold, Simon |
| Abstract: | We study whether female students benefit from being taught by female professors, and whether such gender match effects differ by class size. We use administrative records of a German public university, covering all programs and courses between 2006 and 2018. We find that gender match effects on student performance are sizable in smaller classes, but do not exist in larger classes. This difference suggests that direct and frequent interactions between students and professors are important for the emergence of gender match effects. Instead, the mere fact that one's professor is female is not sufficient to increase performance of female students. |
| Keywords: | gender gap; role models; tertiary education; professors |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I20 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121336&r=inv |
| By: | George Tzagkarakis (IRGO - Institut de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux); Frantz Maurer (Kedge BS - Kedge Business School, IRGO - Institut de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux); J.P. Nolan |
| Abstract: | Optimal sampling period selection for high-frequency data is at the core of financial instruments based on algorithmic trading. The unique features of such data, absent in data measured at lower frequencies, raise significant challenges to their statistical analysis and econometric modelling, especially in the case of heavy-tailed data exhibiting outliers and rare events much more frequently. To address this problem, this paper proposes a new methodology for optimal sampling period selection, which better adapts to heavy-tailed statistics of high-frequency financial data. In particular, the novel concept of the degree of impulsiveness (DoI) is introduced first based on alpha-stable distributions, as an alternative source of information for characterising a broad range of impulsive behaviours. Then, a DoI-based generalised volatility signature plot is defined, which is further employed for determining the optimal sampling period. The performance of our method is evaluated in the case of risk quantification for high-frequency indexes, demonstrating a significantly improved accuracy when compared against the well-established volatility-based approach. © 2023, The Author(s). |
| Keywords: | High-frequency indexes, Alpha-stable models, Degree of impulsiveness, Optimal sampling period |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04425500&r=inv |
| By: | Guillaume Vandenbroucke |
| Abstract: | An analysis of census data reveals that workers who experienced a divorce in the past 12 months typically earned less than those who didn’t. |
| Keywords: | divorce; income |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:97739&r=inv |
| By: | Ghislain Deleplace (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between Tooke and Ricardo on money is not obvious. The comfortable intuition is that, since Tooke opposed the Currency School, and since the Currency School assumed Ricardo's heritage, Tooke was anti-Ricardian. However, there are at least two reasons not to follow this intuition. One is that the continuity between Ricardo's monetary theory and the Currency School may be seriously questioned. The second reason is that Tooke as the main figure of the Banking School in the 1840s was substantially different from the early Tooke who wrote in the 1820s. To avoid misapprehension of the relationship between Tooke and Ricardo on money, it may thus be useful to compare their respective positions on a subject on which both of them spoke and wrote: the suspension and the resumption of convertibility. After having been suspended since 1797, the convertibility of the Bank of England note was resumed on 1st February 1820, following Peel's Bill adopted the preceding year. A major change was introduced by comparison with the pre-1797 system: convertibility was to be into bullion and not into coin. In his 1816 pamphlet Proposals for an Economical and Secure Currency this scheme had been advocated by Ricardo as a permanent device, which amounted to eliminate metallic currency. By contrast, Peel's Bill made it temporary, for a period of three years. In the end, this experiment was discontinued after a little more than one year: on 1st May 1821 the old system of cash payments was resumed. Tooke had been examined on 22nd March 1819 by the Lords' Committee on Resumption. He supported then Ricardo's plan but only as a temporary measure, until it would be possible to return to cash payments. In 1826 he published a pamphlet which contained a whole section devoted to a critique of convertibility into bullion as a permanent system, and in 1829 he published another pamphlet in which he showed that Peel's Bill had had no effect on the deflation and the stagnation of trade which had occurred in the subsequent years – a view consistent with Ricardo's one – and that the Bank of England could not either be considered as responsible for this situation – contrary to what Ricardo contended. It thus makes sense to reconstruct a post mortem dialogue between Ricardo (who had died in 1823) and Tooke on the effects of the suspension and the resumption of convertibility. |
| Keywords: | David Ricardo, Thomas Tooke, convertibility, monetary theory |
| Date: | 2023–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04429520&r=inv |
| By: | Benink, Harald (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Huizinga, Harry (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Raes, Louis (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Zhang, Lishu (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | Carbon Intensity; divestment; Foreign Investment |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:2f31c2d5-58ef-4b23-b929-abf4bbd0b09e&r=inv |
| By: | Rangrang Zheng (University of Hawaii); Greg Schivley (Princeton University); Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez (University of California San Diego); Matthias Fripp (Environmental Defense Fund); Michael J. Roberts (University of Hawaii) |
| Abstract: | Solar and wind power are cost-competitive with fossil fuels, yet their intermittent nature presents challenges. Significant temporal and geographic differences in land, wind, and solar resources suggest that long-distance transmission could be particularly beneficial. Using a detailed, open source model, we analyze optimal transmission expansion jointly with storage, generation, and hourly operations across the three primary interconnects in the United States. Transmission expansion offers far more benefits in a high-renewable system than in a system with mostly conventional generation. Yet while an optimal nationwide plan would have more than triple current interregional transmission, transmission decreases the cost of a 100% clean system by only 4% compared to a plan that relies solely on current transmission. Expanding capacity only within existing interconnects can achieve most of these savings. Adjustments to energy storage and generation mix can leverage the current interregional transmission infrastructure to build a clean power system at a reasonable cost. |
| Keywords: | Decarbonization, renewable energy, intermittency, transmission, trade, optimization |
| JEL: | Q42 Q52 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2024-2&r=inv |
| By: | McAvay, Haley; Vasilopoulos, Pavlos |
| Abstract: | Across national contexts, residents of ethnically diverse areas tend to be more supportive toward immigration. Yet the mechanism behind this trend is not fully understood. Do immigrant attitudes impact residential location or does residential location impact immigrant attitudes? In this paper we draw on panel data from the British Election Study to assess the extent to which the correlation between attitudes towards immigration and ethnic diversity is driven by residential sorting or contextual effects. First, to test residential sorting, we explore how patterns of mobility into and out of residential areas based on levels of ethnic diversity relate to prior attitudes towards immigration. Second, to test contextual effects, we run panel models to identify whether residential location influences tolerance towards immigration, net of individual unobservables. The findings suggest that while attitudes towards immigration have no impact on the likelihood of moving out of ethnically diverse areas, they do shape the likelihood of moving into such areas. Respondents with higher tolerance are more likely to enter areas with high ethnic diversity, in line with residential sorting. In contrast, we find little evidence that residential location exerts an effect on attitudes towards immigration. |
| Date: | 2024–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:jvdrz&r=inv |
| By: | Weiss, Tim; Lounsbury, Mike; Bruton, Garry |
| Abstract: | Institutional scholarship on organizing in poverty contexts has focused on the constraining nature of extant institutions and the need for external actors to make transformative change interventions to alleviate poverty. Comparatively little attention has been paid to the potentially enabling nature of extant institutions in poverty contexts. We argue that more empirical work is needed to deepen our understanding of self-organizing processes that actors embedded in such contexts generate in their own efforts to survive. Drawing on the social worlds approach to institutional analysis, we shed light on how actors self-organize to produce enduring organizational arrangements to safeguard themselves against adverse poverty outcomes. Employing data from fieldwork and interviews collected in the urban neighborhood of Dagoretti Corner in Nairobi, Kenya, we examine the colocation of 105 largely identical auto repair businesses in close spatial proximity. We find that actors leverage an indigenous institution—the societal ethos of Harambee—to enable a process we identify as “survivalist organizing.” Based on our research, we argue that survivalist organizing incorporates four interlocking survival mechanisms: cultivating inter-business solidarity, maintaining precarious inter-business relationships, redistributing resources to prevent business deaths, and generating collective philanthropy to avoid personal destitution. We develop a new research agenda on the institutional study of self-organizing in poverty contexts focused on strengthening rather than supplanting urbanized indigenous institutions that catalyze collective self-organizing. |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3mecq&r=inv |
| By: | Benjamin Lahey; Rajashri Chakrabarti; Natalia Emanuel |
| Abstract: | Following our post on racial and ethnic wealth gaps, here we turn to the distribution of wealth across age groups, focusing on how the picture has changed since the beginning of the pandemic. As of 2019, individuals under 40 years old held just 4.9 percent of total U.S. wealth despite comprising 37 percent of the adult population. Conversely, individuals over age 54 made up a similar share of the population and held 71.6 percent of total wealth. Since 2019, we find a slight narrowing of these wealth disparities across age groups, likely driven by expanded ownership of financial assets among younger Americans. |
| Keywords: | inequality; age; COVID-19; COVID-19 pandemic; wealth |
| JEL: | D63 G1 J00 |
| Date: | 2024–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:97735&r=inv |
| By: | William W. Olney; Owen Thompson |
| Abstract: | Internal migration in the United States has declined substantially over the past several decades, which has important implications for individual welfare, macroeconomic adjustments, and other key outcomes. This paper studies the determinants of internal migration and how they have changed over time. We use administrative data from the IRS covering the universe of bilateral moves between every Commuting Zone (CZ) in the country over a 23 year period. This data is linked to information on local wage levels and home prices, and we estimate bilateral migration determinants in rich regression specifications that contain CZ-pair fixed effects. Consistent with theoretical predictions, results show that migration is decreasing with origin wages and destination home prices, and is increasing with destination wages and origin home prices. We then examine the contributions of earnings and home prices to the noted overall decline in internal migration. These analyses show that wages on their own would have led to an increase in migration rates, primarily because migrants are increasingly responsive to high earnings levels in potential destination CZs. However, these wage effects have been more than offset by housing related factors, which have increasingly impeded internal mobility. In particular, migration has become much less responsive to housing prices in the origin CZ, such that many households that would have left in response to high home prices several decades ago now choose to stay. |
| JEL: | J31 J61 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32123&r=inv |
| By: | WATANABE Ichiro; SHIMIZU Hiroshi |
| Abstract: | This study conducts a quantitative analysis of the relationship between mainstream formation and competition in technological fields. The process of determining the dominant design is crucial in analyzing mainstream formation within specific technological fields, and numerous studies have explored this process. The quantitative analysis conducted in this study indicates that, during the process in which the dominant design is determined, the dominant category, a broader framework than the dominant design, is also established. In this study, we use topic modeling analysis to examine the relationship between the convergence of research and development (R&D) trends among organizations and the number of organizations publishing patents in the computer graphics processing systems industry. Specifically, the number of organizations publishing patents in the industry increased when the degree of convergence among the R&D trends of each organization was relatively low, whereas it decreased when the degree of convergence among R&D trends of each organization was relatively high. Further, the change in the degree of convergence occurred before the change in the number of organizations. These observations suggest that the formation of a mainstream within the industry, which is associated with the convergence of R&D tendencies of specific organizations, affects the competitive environment within the industry. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24018&r=inv |
| By: | Faia, Ester; Ottaviano, Gianmarco Ireo Paolo; Spinella, Saverio |
| Abstract: | Leveraging the geographic dimension of a large administrative panel on employer-employee contracts, we study the impact of robot adoption on wage inequality through changes in worker-firm assortativity. Using recently developed methods to correctly and robustly estimate worker and firm unobserved characteristics, we find that robot adoption increases wage inequality by fostering both horizontal and vertical task specialization across firms. In local economies where robot penetration has been more pronounced, workers performing similar tasks have disproportionately clustered in the same firms ('segregation'). Moreover, such clustering has been characterized by the concentration of higher earners performing more complex tasks in firms paying higher wages ('sorting'). These firms are more productive and poach more aggressively. We rationalize these findings through a simple extension of a well-established class of models with two-sided heterogeneity, on-the-job search, rent sharing and employee Bertrand poaching, where we allow robot adoption to strengthen the complementarities between firm and worker characteristics. |
| Keywords: | robot adoption; worker-firm sorting; wage inequality; technological change; finite mixture models; European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement n 789049-MIMAT-ERC2017-ADG) |
| JEL: | J22 J23 J31 J62 E21 D31 |
| Date: | 2023–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121328&r=inv |
| By: | Pol Antràs; Evgenii Fadeev; Teresa C. Fort; Felix Tintelnot |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of export-platform foreign direct investment (FDI) in which final goods are produced only with labor and there are no fixed costs of exporting. We derive a simple condition that determines whether an MNE's plants are substitutes or complements. This condition is shaped by the relative size of (i) the cross-firm elasticity of demand the MNE faces for its goods and (ii) the within-firm elasticity of labor substitution across the MNE's plants. In two extensions of the model, we show that this complementarity is enhanced by firm-level (rather than plant-level) fixed costs of exporting and of sourcing inputs. |
| JEL: | F1 F2 F4 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32081&r=inv |
| By: | Jason Lennard (London School of Economics (LSE); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence); Seán Kenny (University College Cork; Lund University; Queen’s University Centre for Economic History); Emma Horgan (University College Cork) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a natural experiment in macroeconomic history: the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for three months. We use synthetic control to estimate how the economy would have evolved had the strike not happened. We find that economic activity slowed, deviating by 6% from the counterfactual path. Narrative evidence not only supports this finding, but also depicts the struggles of households and firms managing a credit crunch, a liquidity shock, and rising transaction costs. This case study highlights the importance of banks for economic performance. |
| Keywords: | Banks, Ireland, macroeconomy, post-war |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G21 N14 N24 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2402&r=inv |
| By: | Pradeep Dubey; Siddhartha Sahi; Guanyang Wang |
| Abstract: | We give examples of situations – stochastic production, military tactics, corporate merger – where it is beneficial to concentrate risk rather than to diversify it, i.e., to put all eggs in one basket. The examples admit a dual interpretation: as optimal strategies of a single player (the “principal†) or, alternatively, as dominant strategies in a non-cooperative game with multiple players (the “agents†). The key mathematical result can be formulated in terms of a convolution structure on the set of increasing functions on a Boolean lattice (the lattice of subsets of a finite set). This result generalizes the well-known Harris inequality from statistical physics and discrete mathematics; we give a simple self-contained proof of this result, and then prove a further generalization based on game-theoretic ideas. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:24-02&r=inv |
| By: | Azevedo, Deven; Wolf, Hendrik; Yamazaki, Akio |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the employment impacts of British Columbia’s revenue neutral carbon tax. Using the synthetic control method with firm-level data, we find considerable heterogeneity in employment responses to the policy. We show that firm size matters. In particular, the carbon tax had a negative impact on large emissionintensive firms, but simultaneous tax cuts and transfers increased the purchasing power of low income households, substantially benefiting small businesses in the service sector and food/clothing manufacturing. Furthermore, we find that aggregate employment was not adversely affected by the policy. Our results provide additional insight for the “job-shifting hypothesis” of revenue neutral carbon taxes. |
| Keywords: | carbon tax; employment; unilateral climate policy; firms |
| JEL: | E24 H23 J20 Q50 |
| Date: | 2023–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117346&r=inv |
| By: | Herreros, Sebastián; Durán Lima, José Elías |
| Abstract: | El sector terciario, o de los servicios, congrega a una amplia gama de actividades económicas, entre las que se cuentan el comercio mayorista y minorista, la hotelería, la construcción y diversos servicios profesionales, entre otras. En 2021, el sector representó el 67% del PIB de América Latina y el Caribe y absorbió el 63% del empleo total en la región (78% en el caso de las mujeres). Se trata de un sector históricamente considerado no transable, debido —entre otras razones— a su carácter intangible y a que muchos servicios, como los profesionales y financieros, están sujetos a regulaciones que varían según el país. Sin embargo, en las últimas tres décadas el acelerado despliegue del Internet y la banda ancha han hecho técnicamente factible y económicamente rentable el suministro transfronterizo de una creciente gama de servicios. Así, en 2022 las exportaciones mundiales de servicios alcanzaron su máximo nivel histórico: 7, 1 billones de dólares. Esta suma equivale al 22% de las exportaciones mundiales de bienes y servicios; sin embargo, al medir los flujos comerciales en términos de valor agregado, se estima que ya en 2018 los servicios representaban el 50% del valor total del comercio mundial de bienes y servicios (OMC y Banco Mundial, 2023). Ello da cuenta del creciente contenido de servicios de los bienes transados internacionalmente, proceso conocido como “servicificación”. En la última década y media ha tenido un particular dinamismo el comercio de los denominados servicios modernos, también conocidos como servicios globales o basados en el conocimiento. Su valor se triplicó con creces entre 2005 y 2022, al pasar de 1, 2 billones de dólares a 4, 1 billones de dólares. En este documento se presenta un panorama de la participación de América Latina y el Caribe en el comercio mundial de servicios, con énfasis en su desempeño exportador en el segmento de los servicios modernos. Luego de esta introducción, en la sección B se presentan varios indicadores relativos al dinamismo del comercio y a su estructura sectorial entre 2005 y 2022, para el conjunto de la región y para las subregiones que la componen (América del Sur, Centroamérica y México, y el Caribe). Esta desagregación es crucial, ya que, como se verá más adelante, los patrones de inserción en el comercio de servicios y la importancia relativa de este varían ampliamente entre las tres subregiones. En la sección C se profundiza en el análisis del desempeño exportador regional en los servicios modernos. En la sección D se examinan brevemente los impactos de la pandemia del COVID-19 sobre el desempeño exportador de servicios en los mecanismos subregionales de integración. A modo de conclusión, en la sección E se plantean algunas reflexiones sobre el rol de las políticas públicas para elevar la competitividad exportadora regional, particularmente en los servicios modernos. |
| Date: | 2024–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col025:68809&r=inv |
| By: | Becker, Christoph K.; Duersch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.; Glas, Alexander |
| Abstract: | We present the results of an experiment where a random subset of the participants in the Bundesbank's household panel receive personalized response scales, centered at each participant's point forecast. Personalized response scales offer two advantages over the standard scale which is centered at zero inflation: First, they mitigate the impact of the central tendency bias which leads respondents to assign greater probability mass to the center of the scale at zero. Second, they eliminate the need to adjust the scale when actual inflation falls outside the range for which the response scale was designed. Our results show that the personalized survey responses are of higher quality in three dimensions: (i) higher internal consistency, (ii) more uni-modal responses, and (iii) a significant reduction in the use of the (minimally informative) unbounded intervals of the response scale. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; density forecast; probabilistic forecast; experiment; survey design; personalized response scales |
| Date: | 2024–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awi:wpaper:0743&r=inv |
| By: | Guthmuller, Sophie; Heger, Dörte; Hollenbach, Johannes; Werbeck, Anna |
| Abstract: | We investigate the short- and long-term effects of retirement on loneliness using panel data from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe. To estimate causal effects, we exploit differences in retirement eligibility rules across and within countries and use retirement thresholds in an instrumental variable setting. On average, we find that entering retirement leads to a significant reduction in loneliness in the long run, although our results show no clear effect in the short run. The reduction is driven by individuals being less likely to feel socially isolated and lacking companionship. Our results suggest that individuals adapt to retirement by increasing their activity levels and reap the benefits in terms of reduced loneliness and social isolation. Heterogeneity analysis by gender reveals that retirement increases feelings of loneliness for women in the short term, and that this effect appears to be driven by women lacking companionship when their partner is not yet retired. |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen die Auswirkungen von Renteneintritt auf Einsamkeit in der kurzen und langen Frist mit Hilfe von Fragebogendaten der Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe. Um einen kausalen Zusammenhang aufzuzeigen, nutzen wir die Unterschiede in den Altersgrenzen der Rentenberechtigungsregelungen zwischen und innerhalb der Länder in einer Instrumentenvariablenschätzung. Kurzfristig zeigen unsere Analysen keine Auswirkungen. Langfristig reduziert der Renteneintritt aber das Einsamkeitsgefühl, da sich die Menschen weniger sozial isoliert fühlen und weniger enge Kontakte vermissen. Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass Menschen nach einer gewissen Zeit im Ruhestand ihr Aktivitätsniveau erhöhen, was Einsamkeit und sozialer Isolation entgegenwirkt. Unsere geschlechtsspezifische Analyse zeigt allerdings, dass Frauen sich nach Renteneintritt kurzfristig einsamer fühlen und enge Kontakte vermissen, wenn ihr Partner zu dem Zeitpunkt noch nicht im Ruhestand ist. |
| Keywords: | Loneliness, social isolation, retirement, instrumental variable, causal effect |
| JEL: | J26 J14 I10 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:282008&r=inv |
| By: | Ce Wang |
| Abstract: | We proposed a two-step Longstaff Schwartz Monte Carlo (LSMC) method with two regression models fitted at each time step to price game options. Although the original LSMC can be used to price game options with an enlarged range of path in regression and a modified cashflow updating rule, we identified a drawback of such approach, which motivated us to propose our approach. We implemented numerical examples with benchmarks using binomial tree and numerical PDE, and it showed that our method produces more reliable results comparing to the original LSMC. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.08093&r=inv |
| By: | M. Shabani; M. Magris; George Tzagkarakis (IRGO - Institut de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux); J. Kanniainen; A. Iosifidis |
| Abstract: | Cross-correlation analysis is a powerful tool for understanding the mutual dynamics of time series. This study introduces a new method for predicting the future state of synchronization of the dynamics of two financial time series. To this end, we use the cross recurrence plot analysis as a nonlinear method for quantifying the multidimensional coupling in the time domain of two time series and for determining their state of synchronization. We adopt a deep learning framework for methodologically addressing the prediction of the synchronization state based on features extracted from dynamically sub-sampled cross recurrence plots. We provide extensive experiments on several stocks, major constituents of the S &P100 index, to empirically validate our approach. We find that the task of predicting the state of synchronization of two time series is in general rather difficult, but for certain pairs of stocks attainable with very satisfactory performance (84% F1-score, on average). © 2023, The Author(s). |
| Keywords: | Cross recurrence plot, Synchronization, Kernel convolutional neural network, Financial time series |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04415269&r=inv |
| By: | Luca Rossi; Michelangelo Rossi |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court appointment on U.S. music consumption, specifically exploring changes in streaming patterns on Spotify. With a difference-in-differences approach, we analyze the streaming data of the top 200 songs, revealing a significant increase of at least 13% in the streams of songs by female artists post-appointment. This sustained shift in consumer behaviour suggests a reaction to heightened media attention on gender issues. Our findings are robust against confounding factors such as seasonal trends and Spotify’s promotional activities. Further, the study delves into the role of sexist lyrics, finding a more pronounced effect in songs with sexist terms. This research contributes to understanding political consumerism, showing how significant socio-political events can influence consumer preferences in seemingly unrelated sectors like the music industry. It underscores the importance of adaptive strategies in digital marketplaces in response to external socio-political changes, and highlights the broader societal implications of major events on consumer behaviour and attitudes, particularly concerning gender imbalances. |
| Keywords: | gender equality, music industry, social movements, political consumerism |
| JEL: | J16 L82 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10887&r=inv |
| By: | Yann Algan (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Clément Malgouyres (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Mathias Thoenig (UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how economic incentives influence cultural transmission, using a crucial expression of cultural identity: Child naming decisions. Our focus is on Arabic versus Non-Arabic names given in France over the 2003-2007 period. Our model of cultural transmission features three determinants: (i) vertical (parental) cultural transmission culture; (ii) horizontal (neighborhood) influence; (iii) information on the economic penalty associated with Arabic names. We find that economic incentives largely influence naming choices: Would the parental expectation on the economic penalty be zero, the annual number of babies born with an Arabic name would be more than 50 percent larger. |
| Keywords: | Cultural Economics, Cultural Transmission, First Names, Social Interactions |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03342466&r=inv |
| By: | Bachmann, Ronald; Gonschor, Myrielle; Milasi, Santo; Mitra, Alessio |
| Abstract: | We examine how technology is associated with self-employment dynamics using worker-level data from 31 European countries. We find that while employees exposed to labour-augmenting technologies are more likely to move from paid-employment to solo self-employment and viceversa, employees exposed to labour-saving technologies are less likely to become self-employed. We identify important differences with respect to workers' socio-demographic characteristics. The results suggest that while labour-augmenting technologies promote workers' mobility and reduce unemployment risks for high-skilled workers, they have the opposite effect for low-skilled workers. Furthermore, labour-saving technologies worsen labour market outcomes particularlyfor low-skilled and routine workers. |
| Abstract: | Unter Verwendung von Daten auf Arbeitnehmerebene aus 31 europäischen Ländern untersuchen wir, wie Technologie mit Arbeitsmarktübergängen in die Selbständigkeit zusammenhängt. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Arbeitnehmer, die in ihrer Arbeit mit arbeitsunterstützenden Technologien konfrontiert sind, eher von abhängiger Beschäftigung in die Soloselbstständigkeit wechseln und umgekehrt, während Arbeitnehmer, die mit arbeitssparenden Technologien konfrontiert sind, seltener eine selbstständige Tätigkeit aufnehmen. Wir finden wichtige Unterschiede in den soziodemographischen Merkmalen der Arbeitnehmer. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass arbeitsunterstützende Technologien zwar die Mobilität von Arbeitnehmern fördern und das Arbeitslosigkeitsrisiko von hoch qualifizierten Arbeitnehmern verringern, dass sie aber bei gering qualifizierten Arbeitnehmern den gegenteiligen Effekt haben. Darüber hinaus verschlechtern arbeitssparende Technologien die Arbeitsmarktergebnisse, insbesondere für Geringqualifizierte und Routinearbeiter. |
| Keywords: | Solo self-employment, occupations, tasks, technology, Europe |
| JEL: | J62 J63 J31 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:282007&r=inv |
| By: | Muñoz, Manuel A.; Soons, Oscar |
| Abstract: | The bulk of cash is held for store of value purposes, with such holdings sharply increasing in times of high economic uncertainty and only a fraction of the population choosing to hoard cash. We develop a Diamond and Dybvig model with public money as a store of value and heterogeneous beliefs about bank stability that accounts for this evidence. Only consumers who are sufficiently pessimistic about bank stability hold cash. The introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a store of value lowers the storage cost of public money and induces partial bank disintermediation, which is nevertheless mitigated by an increase in relative maturity transformation. This has heterogeneous welfare consequences across the population. While cash holders always benefit by switching to CBDC, each of all other consumers may be better off or not depending on the probability of a bank run, her (and all others’) belief about such probability and the degree of technological superiority of CBDC. JEL Classification: E41, E58, G11, G21 |
| Keywords: | bank stability, cash hoarding, central bank digital currency, disagreement, uncertainty shocks, welfare, flight-to-safety |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:2024146&r=inv |