|
on Investment |
| By: | McConnell, Brendon; Valladares-Esteban, Arnau |
| Abstract: | In the US labor market, married men and women earn higher wages than their single counterparts. At the same time, individuals with higher cognitive and non-cognitive skills are more likely to be married. We extend the frameworks of Altonji and Pierret (2001) and Pinkston (2009) to the case of marriage and find no evidence that employers use marriage to statistically discriminate workers. Contrary to what statistical discrimination implies, the returns to being married increase with labor market experience. For women without experience being married is associated with a penalty. However, as experience increases, the relationship between wages and being married becomes positive. These findings are valuable in building a better understanding of the determinants of the marriage wage premium. |
| Keywords: | Marriage Wage Premium, Employer Learning, Statistical Discrimination |
| JEL: | J12 J16 J30 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2023:05&r=inv |
| By: | Maria Cristina Barbieri Goes (University of Bari Aldo Moro, Italy); Joana David Avritzer (Economics Department, Connecticut College, USA) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we explore the empirical implications of considering monetary and distribution shocks on semi-autonomous demand under a supermultiplier framework. In particular, we investigate the effect of changes in financial variables - the federal funds rate - and distributive variables - the wage share of income - on autonomous expenditure (e.g.: private residential investment and consumer credit), as well as economic growth. We use quarterly data for the United States economy from 1968 to 2022 and apply a SVAR model. We find that: (i) the federal funds rate, our financial variable, has a negative and statistically significant effect on autonomous expenditure, whether we define it to be given by residential investment added to consumer credit or to durable goods consumption; (ii) a positive shock in the wage share does seem to have a positive and significant effect on consumption and output, however, this effect is measured to be transitory; (iii) a positive shock in aggregated autonomous demand has a positive, persistent, and statistically significant effect on induced consumption and, output, as well as on the adjusted wage share; (iv) a positive shock in private residential investment has a positive, persistent and statistically significant effect on other autonomous components of demand and output; (v) while residential investment positively influences consumer credit, the inverse does not hold. |
| Keywords: | Supermultiplier, financial and distributional shocks, SVAR, US, semi-autonomous expenditure |
| JEL: | C32 D33 E11 E12 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2307&r=inv |
| By: | Bailey Klinger; Miguel Angel Santos (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Camilla Arroyo; Ekaterina Vashkinskaya |
| Abstract: | The Tanzanian economy experienced a significant acceleration over two decades, growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 6% between 1998 and 2018. Within the context of such a positive performance, it is noteworthy that the manufacturing sector did not increase its share of gross domestic product (GDP), which lingered below 10% throughout the same period. The formal manufacturing sector is capital-intensive and highly productive but stagnant, while employment in Tanzania remains concentrated in agriculture and – to a lesser degree – services. Despite having attractive nearby opportunities for diversification, manufacturing exports are unsophisticated and their contribution to the export basket remains small. This study deploys the Growth Diagnostic framework within Tanzania’s manufacturing sector to promote a better understanding of the reasons why the country has failed to achieve its industrialization goals. Growth Diagnostics is a methodology initially proposed by Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco (2008) as a framework to prioritize reforms that address the most pressing constraints preventing growth. The authors proposed a simple framework where investment and economic growth are determined by the returns to factor accumulation, the appropriability of these returns and the costs of financing. In a world where production factors tend to be more complements than substitutes, the factor in the shortest relative supply – the most binding constraint – is the one with the highest estimated growth payoff and shall be prioritized within the allocation of policy attention and government resources. The framework has evolved into a set of data-driven tests examining all key production inputs, including finance, human capital, infrastructure, government failures at the macroeconomic and microeconomic level, as well as coordination and information failures. Growth Diagnostics exercises are better conceived as iterative processes, fertile ground for active collaboration among domestic government, private stakeholders, and technical experts. Data driven insights and findings derived from econometric analysis are successively discussed, until a common diagnosis and an internally consistent policy plan is reached. In this study, we have deployed the Growth Diagnostic framework to identify the most binding constraints within the manufacturing sector in Tanzania. |
| Keywords: | Tanzania, Growth Diagnostics |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:152a&r=inv |
| By: | Evelina Gavrilova; Audun Langørgen; Floris T. Zoutman; Floris Zoutman |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a machine-learning method that allows researchers to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects with panel data in a setting with many covariates. Our method, which we name the dynamic causal forest (DCF) method, extends the causal-forest method of Wager and Athey (2018) by allowing for the estimation of dynamic treatment effects in a difference-in-difference setting. Regular causal forests require conditional independence to consistently estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. In contrast, DCFs provide a consistent estimate for heterogeneous treatment effects under the weaker assumption of parallel trends. DCFs can be used to create event-study plots which aid in the inspection of pre-trends and treatment effect dynamics. We provide an empirical application, where DCFs are applied to estimate the incidence of payroll tax on wages paid to employees. We consider treatment effect heterogeneity associated with personal- and firm-level variables. We find that on average the incidence of the tax is shifted onto workers through incidental payments, rather than contracted wages. Heterogeneity is mainly explained by firm-and workforce-level variables. Firms with a large and heterogeneous workforce are most effective in passing on the incidence of the tax to workers. |
| Keywords: | causal forest, treatment effect heterogeneity, payroll tax incidence, administrative data |
| JEL: | C18 H22 J31 M54 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10532&r=inv |
| By: | Rosenbach, Gracie; Benimana, Gilberthe; Ingabire, Chantal; Spielman, David J.; Tumukunde, Ritha |
| Abstract: | Rwanda is a recognized leader in the region and in the world in terms of women’s empowerment. However, no country has yet achieved full gender equality, resulting in untapped potential. The findings from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) baseline survey conducted in 2019 for the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), indicated that women and men in Rwanda both have relatively high levels of empowerment across different agricultural do mains, and most women are as empowered as men in their households. This working paper dis cusses the findings further and in the context of MINAGRI’s Gender and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy that was also launched in 2019, as well as the Fourth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA 4). Key findings include the following. • Compared to other countries in the region, women in Rwanda have relatively greater access to financial services and a relatively lower time burden in agriculture. • However, when compared to men in Rwanda, inequalities persist. Women are significantly less likely than men to access financial services, participate in the marketing of agricultural commodities, access extension services, and spend their time on productive (rather than reproductive) work. By adapting and promoting innovative and gender-inclusive financial products, shifting gendered cultural norms, providing extension to both the household head and the spouse, and investing in time-saving technologies and innovations, there are opportunities to reduce the gender gap in agriculture and increase agricultural productivity. Realization of these outcomes will depend partly on the implementation of the Gender and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy and PSTA 4, and partly on coordination with other gender-transformative programs in Rwanda. |
| Keywords: | RWANDA; CENTRAL AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; women; gender; gender equality; surveys; agriculture; households; fiance; marketing; agricultural products; extension services; production; cultural behaviour; Women's empowerment; Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:rsspwp:7&r=inv |
| By: | Matthew Knowles (University of Cologne); Mario Lupoli (University of St Andrews) |
| Abstract: | We develop a new measure of wage rigidity, the Nash wage elasticity (NWE). The NWE is the percentage change in the actual wage rate when the wage that would occur under Nash bargaining changes by 1%. We show that the NWE can be measured from aggregate data under relatively weak assumptions which hold across a large class of search and matching models. The empirical value can then be compared with the values predicted by specific models in this class. In the US data, our estimates of the NWE are generally between 0 and 0.1, indicating that, for both continuing workers and new hires, (a) there is a high degree of wage rigidity and (b) Nash bargaining provides a poor description of wage setting. We show that our estimates imply that wage rigidity greatly amplifies business cycles: A simple SAM model suggests that, if workers were paid Nash-bargained wages rather than actual wages, then the cyclical volatility of unemployment would decrease to less than one seventh of what it is in the data. We compare our results to various models of rigid and flexible wages in the literature. |
| Keywords: | Business Cycles; Unemployment; Wage Rigidity; Nash Bargaining |
| JEL: | E32 J30 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:240&r=inv |
| By: | Braun, Matías (Universidad de los Andes); Gallego, Francisco (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile); Soares, Rodrigo R. (Insper, São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of renovating deteriorated public spaces on local socioeconomic outcomes. We analyze the impacts of a randomized experiment implemented in 28 fragile neighborhoods of Santiago, Chile. Our findings indicate that the renovation of local squares led to increased use and maintenance of the public space, enhanced neighborhood engagement, and a stronger sense of ownership among residents, along with a reduction in leisure activities outside the neighborhood. Moreover, treated neighborhoods experienced improvements in public security perceptions both within the square and in the broader neighborhood area. We also observe positive effects on trust (among acquaintances) and participation in community organizations. By exploring heterogeneous treatment effects across neighborhoods, we do not find evidence supporting theories emphasizing the joint determination of public security and social capital. Instead, our results suggest that the effects are better explained by increased neighborhood use, particularly in areas that are densely populated and have a higher proportion of social housing. |
| Keywords: | public space recovery, crime, social capital, urban infrastructure |
| JEL: | K42 O18 R53 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16269&r=inv |
| By: | Gavrilova, Evelina (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Langørgen, Audun (Statistics Norway); Zoutman, Floris T. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a machine-learning method that allows researchers to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects with panel data in a setting with many covariates. Our method, which we name the dynamic causal forest (DCF) method, extends the causal-forest method of Wager and Athey (2018) by allowing for the estimation of dynamic treatment effects in a difference-in-difference setting. Regular causal forests require conditional independence to consistently estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. In contrast, DCFs provide a consistent estimate for heterogeneous treatment effects under the weaker assumption of parallel trends. DCFs can be used to create event-study plots which aid in the inspection of pre-trends and treatment effect dynamics. We provide an empirical application, where DCFs are applied to estimate the incidence of payroll tax on wages paid to employees. We consider treatment effect heterogeneity associated with personal- and firm-level variables. We find that on average the incidence of the tax is shifted onto workers through incidental payments, rather than contracted wages. Heterogeneity is mainly explained by firm-and workforce-level variables. Firms with a large and heterogeneous workforce are most effective in passing on the incidence of the tax to workers. |
| Keywords: | Causal Forest; Treatment Effect Heterogeneity; Payroll Tax Incidence; Administrative Data |
| JEL: | C18 H22 J31 M54 |
| Date: | 2023–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2023_009&r=inv |
| By: | Anand, Gautam (Global School Leaders); Atluri, Aishwarya (J-PAL); Crawfurd, Lee (Center for Global Development); Pugatch, Todd (Oregon State University); Sheth, Ketki (University of Tennessee) |
| Abstract: | Improving school quality in low and middle income countries (LMICs) is a global priority. One way to improve quality may be to improve the management skills of school leaders. In this systematic review, we analyze the impact of interventions targeting school leaders' management practices on student learning. We begin by describing the characteristics and responsibilities of school leaders using data from large, multi-country surveys. Second, we review the literature and conduct a meta-analysis of the causal effect of school management interventions on student learning, using 39 estimates from 20 evaluations. We estimate a statistically significant improvement in student learning of 0.04 standard deviations. We show that effect sizes are not related to program scale or intensity. We complement the meta-analysis by identifying common limitations to program effectiveness through a qualitative assessment of the studies included in our review. We find three main factors which mitigate program effectiveness: 1) low take-up; 2) lack of incentives or structure for implementation of recommendations; and 3) the lengthy causal chain linking management practices to student learning. Finally, to assess external validity of our review, we survey practitioners to compare characteristics between evaluated and commonly implemented programs. Our findings suggest that future work should focus on generating evidence on the marginal effect of common design elements in these interventions, including factors that promote school leader engagement and accountability. |
| Keywords: | school management, school principals, head teachers, systematic review, meta-analysis |
| JEL: | I21 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16252&r=inv |
| By: | Baker, Jennifer L.; Bjerregaard, Lise G.; Dahl, Christian M. (University of Southern Denmark); Johansen, Torben S. D. (University of Southern Denmark); Sørensen, Emil N. (University of Bristol); Wüst, Miriam (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting a 1960s government trial in Copenhagen, we study the long-run and inter-generational effects of preventive care for toddlers. We combine administrative data with handwritten nurse records to document universal treatment take-up and positive health effects for treated children over the life course. Beneficial health impacts are largest for disadvantaged children and may even extend to their offspring. While initial trial cohorts experienced positive health and socioeconomic impacts, those are absent for the final cohorts. This heterogeneity across individuals' background and cohorts documents that universal toddler care can alleviate inequalities at low costs, and that the counterfactual policy environment matters. |
| Keywords: | early-life investments, health, public policy, government trial, Denmark, digitization, automated transcription |
| JEL: | I1 J1 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16270&r=inv |
| By: | Alice Martini |
| Abstract: | The work offers a reassessment of some aspects of the economic and commercial relations between Italy, Germany, and Great Britain from the 1930s to 1940, using files from several archives of those states. Its purpose is to offer a reinterpretation that leads to a comprehensive understanding of the political and diplomatic dynamics that led to the creation of the Axis (1936), to that of the Pact of steel (1939), to the British decision not to "buy" Italian neutrality (1939-40) and to the entry of Italy into the Second World War (1940). The paper focuses also on the interactions between economic and commercial policies with international and foreign politics, allowing to shed new light on whether and to what extent the latter were influenced by the first ones and/or vice versa. The relation between economic and political elements was in fact tackled in two very different ways by Germany and Italy, on the one hand, and Great Britain, on the other. While London never 'downgraded' the economic aspects in the relations it built with Italy, the fascist regimes, even in the relations between themselves, could, in a specific moment, give full priority to politics, complying with their boasted-about beliefs. |
| Keywords: | Anglo-Italian-German relations, Economic war, Political-commercial relations, Maritime blockade |
| JEL: | N40 N44 |
| Date: | 2023–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2023/295&r=inv |
| By: | Spencer D. Krane; Leonardo Melosi; Matthias Rottner |
| Abstract: | Central banks around the world have revised their operating frameworks in an attempt to counter the challenges presented by the effective lower bound (ELB) on policy rates. We examine how private sector agents might learn such a new regime and the effect of future shocks on that process. In our model agents use Bayesian updating to learn the parameters of an asymmetric average inflation targeting rule that is adopted while at the ELB. Little can be discovered until the economy improves enough that rates would be near liftoff under the old policy regime; learning then proceeds until either the new parameters are learned or the average inflation target is reached. Recessionary shocks forcing a return to the ELB would thus delay learning while large inflationary shocks could outright stop it and so inhibit the ability of the new rule to address future ELB episodes. We show the central bank can offset some of the inflation-induced learning loss by deviating from its new rule, but it must weigh the benefits of doing so against the costs of higher near-term inflation and greater uncertainty about the policy function. |
| Keywords: | new framework; central bank's communications; Deflationary Bias; asymmetric average inflation targeting; imperfect credibility; liftoff; Bayesian Learning |
| JEL: | E52 C63 E31 |
| Date: | 2023–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:96385&r=inv |
| By: | Berger, Thomas B.; Reinhardt, Rüdiger; Büchel, Julia |
| Abstract: | Aufsichtsräte sind zur Überwachung, Kontrolle und Beratung der Unternehmensführung auf Berichte und Kennzahlen angewiesen. Dies ist vor allem in Krisen und transformativen Prozessen sehr wichtig. Insbesondere die mit der Personalstrategie verbundenen Risiken sind hier von Bedeutung. Jedoch beschäftigen sich bislang nur wenige Unternehmen systematisch mit Personalrisiken. Die Hans-Böckler-Stiftung fördert deshalb ein Forschungsprojekt, dessen Ziel es ist, die Mitgestaltungskraft der Arbeitnehmervertretungen im Aufsichtsrat, insbesondere im Bereich Personalrisikomanagement, zu erweitern. Im hier vorliegenden Zwischenbericht wollen wir den Status Quo der Aufsichtsratsarbeit vor dem Hintergrund der digitalen Transformation in mitbestimmten Unternehmen darlegen. Unsere bisherigen Studienergebnisse zeigen, dass eine schriftlich formulierte Personalstrategie nur in einer Minderheit der Unternehmen vorhanden ist und dass die Arbeitnehmervertretungen im Aufsichtsrat hier nur wenig Einfluss nehmen können. Ähnliches gilt für den systematischen Umgang mit digitaler Transformation. Trotz einer hohen Betroffenheit einer Mehrheit von Unternehmen ist nur die Hälfte der Arbeitnehmervertretungen in diesen Unternehmen ausreichend zur Thematik informiert. Auch und gerade vor dem Hintergrund verschärfter digitaler Transformation sind die strategischen Steuerungsmöglichkeiten des Gesamtgremiums damit in vielfältiger Weise eingeschränkt. Auffällig ist nämlich auch, dass Unternehmen mit akkurater Informationspolitik auch die Zusammenarbeit mit den Anteilseignern konsensorientierter verläuft, das Wissen eher geteilt wird und die Arbeitnehmervertretungen mehr Einfluss auf die Personalstrategie nehmen können. Verbesserte Informationen zur Personalpolitik im Transformationskontext kann Unternehmen somit erfolgreicher machen. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imumbp:52&r=inv |
| By: | Zholdayakova, Saule (Asian Development Bank Institute); Abuov, Yerdaulet (Asian Development Bank Institute); Zhakupov, Dualet (Asian Development Bank Institute); Suleimenova, Botakoz (Asian Development Bank Institute); Kim, Alisa (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Hydrogen technologies are one of the central topics in the energy transition. Different nations have different stances on it. Some governments see hydrogen as a decarbonization tool or part of their energy security strategy, while some others see it as a potential export commodity. While identifying priorities for the future, Kazakhstan should clearly define the role of hydrogen in the country’s long-term energy and decarbonization strategy. We present the first country-scale assessment of hydrogen technologies in Kazakhstan by focusing on policy, technology and economy aspects. A preliminary analysis has shown that Kazakhstan should approach hydrogen mainly as a part of its long-term decarbonization strategy. While coping with the financial risks of launching a hydrogen economy, the country can benefit from the export potential of low-carbon hydrogen in the near term. The export potential of low-carbon hydrogen in Kazakhstan is justified by its proximity to the largest hydrogen markets, huge resource base, and potentially low cost of production (in the case of blue hydrogen). We discuss technology options for hydrogen transportation and storage for Kazakhstan. We also also identify target hydrogen utilization areas in emission sectors regulated by Kazakhstan’s Emissions Trading System. |
| Keywords: | hydrogen roadmap; hydrogen strategy; blue hydrogen; green hydrogen; hydrogen export; metal hydrides |
| JEL: | L52 L71 Q42 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1344&r=inv |
| By: | Armin Falk (University of Bonn, briq Institute); Mark Fallak (Institute of Labor Economics); Lasse Stötzer (briq Institute) |
| Abstract: | We elicit individual willingness to fight climate change using an incentivized donation decision. More specifical-ly, we asked the 2, 002 respondents to divide 198 euros between themselves and a charitable organization that fights global warming. The amount of 198 euros was chosen because, by donating all of it, respondents could offset the annual CO2 emissions of an average German citizen. We incentivize the decision by implementing the choices of a random subset of participants. Almost 90 percent of respondents donate at least part of the money to offset CO2 emissions. On average, respondents gave slightly less than half, around 96 euros. Altruistic individuals donated significantly more. Voters of the right-wing party AfD donated just under 57 euros, while supporters of the other parties gave an average of 102 euros. Willingness to fight climate change increased with rising income. However, even in the lowest income group with less than 1, 300 euros per month, an average donation of 88 euros indicates a high willingness to forego a financial advantage for the sake of climate protection. Parents contributed on average about 10 percent more. People who deny climate change or see it as a mainly natural phenomenon donated on average 40 percent less than the rest of the population. That Germans seem to be conscious of climate issues is also reflected in their consumption behavior and transportation choices. A large majority of those surveyed stated that they try to save water and energy, and buy more regional, seasonal and vegetarian foods. Two-thirds regularly use bicycles, public transportation, or other environmentally friendly alternatives to driving by car. Germans are also willing to become politically active against climate change, albeit to a somewhat lesser extent. Almost one-fourth of respondents said they had taken part in demonstrations, signed petitions, or ac-tively supported climate protection organizations in the last twelve months. About one in eight have bought climate protection certificates to offset CO2 emissions. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:035_en&r=inv |
| By: | Joshua D. Gottlieb; David Hémous; Jeffrey Hicks; Morten G. Olsen |
| Abstract: | Top income inequality in the United States has increased considerably within occupations. This phenomenon has led to a search for a common explanation. We instead develop a theory where increases in income inequality originating within a few occupations can "spill over" through consumption into others. We show theoretically that such spillovers occur when an occupation provides non-divisible services to consumers, with physicians our prime example. Examining local income inequality across U.S. regions, the data suggest that such spillovers exist for physicians, dentists, and real estate agents. Estimated spillovers for other occupations are consistent with the predictions of our theory. |
| JEL: | D31 J24 J31 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31366&r=inv |