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on International Trade |
| By: | Alejandro Graziano; Monika Sztajerowska; Christian Volpe Martincus |
| Abstract: | The recent changes in trade policy have significantly impacted trade flows. There is an ongoing debate on whether and to what extent firms may have also reacted to the new trade barriers by modifying the spatial organization of their multinational production to circumvent them. This paper aims to provide new evidence on whether such a tariff induced shift in the location patterns of multinational firms has actually taken place. To do so, we exploit the changes in U.S. import tariffs in 2018-2019. The evidence indicates that firms have indeed responded to these new tariffs by adjusting the extensive margin of their multinational production across countries and that both structural factors and trade agreements played an important role in shaping these adjustments. |
| Keywords: | Multinational Firms, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Policy, Tariffs |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:2024-06 |
| By: | Franco Riottini Depetris (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andrés) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of ambassadors on trade promotion, utilizing the 2012 Paraguayan political crisis as a natural experiment. Using highly disaggregated customs data and a difference-in-differences approach, I analyse how the unexpected withdrawal of Argentina's ambassador affected bilateral trade patterns. My findings reveal that the ambassador's absence led to a significant decrease in Paraguay's imports from Argentina, primarily driven by reductions in the extensive margin of trade. I observed a 3% decline in the number of suppliers and a 5% decrease in the number of imported products. To elucidate the mechanisms, I analyse data on commercial and specific actions undertaken by the Argentine embassy in Paraguay. Results indicate that the ambassador's absence corresponded with a substantial decrease in both major trade events and smaller, targeted activities, despite no change in the embassy's budget allocation. The analysis is robust to various specifications, including different regional samples and trade volume thresholds. This research contributes to the literature on economic diplomacy by providing causal evidence of ambassadors' role in facilitating international trade, particularly in establishing new trade relationships. |
| Keywords: | International Trade, Economic Diplomacy, Trade Promotion, Ambassadorial Impact, Extensive Margin of Trade, Natural Experiment, Diplomatic Relations, Export Diversification, Trade Policy, Bilateral Trade, Developing Economies, Difference-in-Differences |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 F51 F55 F59 O19 O24 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:ypaper:15 |
| By: | Ignacio Pineda-Devesa (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Joan Martín-Montaner (IEI and Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between trade openness and income inequality at a regional level. Trade models predict that the expected benefits of trade are not necessarily distributed equally across the population within a country. Most research on the impact of trade on income distribution has focused solely on the impact of import flows at the national level. Using data from income surveys and trade at the shipment level, we estimate a 2SLS model relating variations in the Spanish regional Gini indexes to changes in trade openness, disentangling the impact of import and export flows. Our results show that the direction of trade flows matters, as we observe that the effect of imports on the income distribution is ambiguous, whereas exports are beneficial in reducing inequalities. Moreover, the impact of both types of trade depends on the type of products traded and their origin or destination. |
| Keywords: | trade, import exposure, income distribution, inequality |
| JEL: | F14 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2024/09 |
| By: | David Kohn (Central Bank of Chile/Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Emiliano Luttini (World Bank); Michal Szkup (University of British Columbia); Shengxing Zhang (Carnegie Mellon University) |
| Abstract: | We study how trade finance and long-term relationships between exporters and importers facilitate international trade by allowing exporters to learn about demand uncertainty and counterparty risk. Using detailed micro-level Chilean data, we document that new exporters are more likely to use cash-in-advance (CIA) arrangements andgradually switch to providing trade credit as they continue to export. These dynamics affect export growth and are more salient for firms with less exporting experience andselling to riskier destinations. We set up an international trade model in which firms make exporting and trade financing decisions subject to demand and counterparty risksand estimate it using microdata. We then use the model to quantify the relative importance of demand and counterparty risks and investigate how trade finance choicesand learning affect the dynamics of exports. Our model implies that the response of aggregate exports and the number of exporters to shocks to aggregate interest rates canovershoot in the short run if long-term relationships and relationship-specific knowledge are destroyed. Building relationships takes time, making the response to theseshocks sluggish and persistent. Crucially, these responses depend on the riskiness of trade destinations. |
| Keywords: | export dynamics, trade finance, learning, demand risk, counterparty risk |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:346 |
| By: | Pau Pujolas; Jack Rossbach |
| Abstract: | Trade imbalances significantly alter the welfare implications of tariffs. Using an illustrative model, we show that trade deficits enhance a country's ability to alter its terms of trade, and thereby benefit from tariffs. Greater trade deficits imply higher optimal, or welfare maximizing, tariffs. We compute optimal unilateral and Nash equilibrium tariffs between the United States and China $\unicode{x2014}$ the countries with the largest bilateral trade imbalance $\unicode{x2014}$ using a multi-region, multi-sector applied general equilibrium model with service sectors and input-output linkages, a computationally complex task. Free trade benefits both countries compared to a trade war. Relative to existing tariff rates, however, the United States gains from a trade war with China $\unicode{x2014}$ a result that hinges on their bilateral trade imbalance. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.15092 |
| By: | Abigail S. Hornstein (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | Foreign direct investment (FDI) may represent an expansion in the domestic capital supply, which could thus increase GDP growth through the investment and consumption sectors and generate productivity increases. We examine this hypothesis by looking earlier in the investment process and use little-known data on FDI approvals from ten Asian countries that have routinely required advance approval of FDI and have also disclosed this data. We show that the approved FDI predicts actual FDI inflows, and that on average more FDI is approved than realized. The approved FDI is used to create an FDI commitment ratio and gap, which are thus absolute and relative measures of how FDI pledges are fulfilled. We then examine how the host economy is affected by the FDI commitment ratio and gap using an Arellano-Bond dynamic panel estimator to examine an unbalanced dataset spanning 1967–2022. We find GDP growth forecasts are significantly affected by both FDI measures. However, actual GDP growth is affected negatively by the FDI gap, with the effects strongest at the 3-year horizon. Thus, we show that FDI initially displaces domestic capital before expanding the domestic capital supply. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, economic growth, household consumption, productivity, financial development |
| JEL: | F21 F23 G18 G31 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2024-012 |
| By: | Aytun, Uğur; Hinz, Julian; Özgüzel, Cem |
| Abstract: | In November 2015, Turkey's unexpected downing of a Russian military jet in Syria prompted Russia to impose a swift and comprehensive embargo on specific Turkish exports. This study leverages this quasi-natural experiment to estimate both the immediate and longer-term effects of the imposition and subsequent lifting of these sanctions. Utilizing administrative data encompassing all Turkish exporters, we first examine the impact on trade at the firm level, assessing the direct effects of the embargo, the redirection of trade to alternative markets, and the circumvention through other products. Second, we investigate broader repercussions on domestic operations, including firms' sales, procurement, and employment. Our findings show that while the embargo caused immediate and substantial declines in exports of affected products to Russia, firms partially mitigated these losses through trade diversion. Although relative trade patterns normalized post-sanctions, absolute trade values remained subdued. The analysis reveals that affected firms experienced declines in domestic sales and supplier relationships, with temporary disruptions in employment. However, most negative effects dissipated following the embargo's removal, except for some persistent reductions in procurement and supplier links. These results contribute to the understanding of sanctions' broader economic implications and the resilience of firms facing trade disruptions. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, Embargoes, Firm-level Effects, Gravity |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:306823 |
| By: | Park, Sung Keun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kang, Sungwoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Han, Jung Min (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Over the last two decades, South Korean automotive and semiconductor exports have grown dramatically, while exports of other products have either stagnated or declined. In this report, we seek to explain these phenomena using income elasticity. The global income elasticity of Korean exports (the percentage change in Korean exports in response to a percentage change in the world income) is influenced by structural factors, such as the competitiveness of and preference for Korean-made products, and which cannot be explained by cyclical factors such as demand and exchange rates. An overall decline in the income elasticity of Korean industries (and particularly the materials industry) appears to stem from the fragmentation of the global economy, offshoring by manufacturers, and China’s growing ability to produce intermediate materials domestically. Growing demand for eco-friendly vehicles (electric, hybrid, etc.) and the rising popularity of Korean culture and brands (Hallyu) may have helped the income elasticity of the Korean automotive industry turn positive in 2022. In comparison, the income elasticity of the Korean semiconductor industry has been soaring since 2015, thanks to years of aggressive investment, innovations fueling demand growth, and the United States’ institution of sanctions against China. In the coming years, the income elasticity of Korean industries is likely to drop further due to four main factors: 1) slower trade due to escalating tensions between the United States and China and the continued fragmentation of the global economy, (2) increasingly restrictive net-zero regulations that disproportionally affect emissions-heavy industries, (3) more offshoring, (4) continuous Chinese investment in cutting-edge industries. Korea needs to attract investment by fostering an RE100-friendly business environment, (2) establish a comprehensive plan for maintaining its technological superiority in cutting-edge industries, and reconfigure global supply chains to ensure the continued stability of its production network. |
| Keywords: | auto industry; semiconductor industry; income elasticity; exports; materials industry; steel; Hyundai; Kia; POSCO; SK; trade; batteries; LG Energy Solution; KIET; South Korea |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F47 L61 L62 L63 L65 |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:2024_004 |
| By: | Hyeongwoo Kim; Madeline H. Kim; Divya Sadana; Jie Zhang |
| Abstract: | Donald Trump claimed that the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) was a horrible deal, pointing to a significant increase in the U.S. trade deficit with Korea since the agreement went into effect in March 2012. However, during the same period, the U.S. trade balance with many other major trading partners also deteriorated, even though none of them had an FTA with the U.S. This raises questions about whether the KORUS FTA is responsible for the worsened trade imbalance, casting doubt on Trump’s claim. We explore this issue by analyzing the causal effects of the KORUS FTA on the trade balance between the U.S. and Korea using a difference-in-differences approach, along with an event study to asset the model’s validity. Our empirical findings strongly support Trump's claim, while accounting for business cycle fluctuations over time. |
| Keywords: | KORUS FTA; Trade Deficit; Difference-in-Differences; Causal Effect; Event Study |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2024-07 |
| By: | Giovanni Carnazza; Paolo Liberati; Agnese Sacchi |
| Abstract: | In recent times, many countries have continued to deal with political instability due to difficulties in improving democratic practices and limiting episodes of violence and terrorism. Using a sample of 27 European Union (EU) countries observed yearly during the period 1999-2021, we empirically analyze how the domestic political instability of a given country can be affected by the degree of trade diversification adjusted for the political instability of the nonEU countries it trades with. We adopt a network-based approach and build a novel geopolitical dependency index. We find there is a risk of importing political instability along with international trade by increasing trade concentration or the import share from more politically unstable non-EU countries. Given the relevance of the United States and China for European economic activity, we also test our main hypothesis by adjusting the geopolitical dependency index. We see China’s prominent role in trade and political tension in EU countries compared to the US. |
| Keywords: | political instability, trade diversification, network analysis, geopolitical dependency, EU countries |
| JEL: | D74 D85 F10 F50 |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/319 |
| By: | Andrew Greenland; John Lopresti |
| Abstract: | Using a newly digitized database encompassing the universe of tariff lines across five US trade policy regimes between 1900 and 1940, we show that price dynamics combine with industry reliance on specific tariffs to generate large swings in average tariff levels. Intra-policy variation in tariffs is strongly predictive of import growth throughout our sample. Using linked Census data, we quantify the effects of imports on structural change in this era. We find that import growth decreases labor force participation and inhibits the transition into the expanding manufacturing and service sectors, especially among the young. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F66 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33127 |
| By: | Satyanand, Premila Nazareth |
| Abstract: | FDI could significantly propel global progress on sustainable development, if host countries make it the core driver for all aspects of investment attraction and facilitation - a "must do" instead of a "nice to do." This Perspective outlines how they might do this through focused investor targeting, messaging, servicing and monitoring. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:306299 |
| By: | McCully, Tuuli; Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | We examine changes in the manufacturing sector value chains of the EU, US, China, and India between 2018 and 2023 by introducing three metrics for supply-chain vulnerability. For our first metric, the physical length of a supply chain based on the distance between the producer of the final product and input source country, we find modest evidence of near-shoring for the US, EU, and India. Second, utilizing political distances between the supply chain participants, our assessment of the geopolitical risks of supply chains reveals slight friend-shoring by the US and EU, mainly a result of Russia's reduced participation in their supply chains. Third, looking at the already extensive supply chain diversification of the studied countries, we find diversification has increased modestly since 2018. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, supply chains, fragmentation, value-added trade, input-output |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:307141 |
| By: | Brotto, André; Jakubik, Adam; Piermartini, Roberta; Silvy, Fulvio |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the process of accession to the WTO on growth rates in a sample of 150 economies. Unlike GATT-era accessions, WTO accessions involve reforms that extend beyond conventional trade liberalization measures. Using information on the pace of negotiations and requests in the working party's meetings, we construct an index that tracks the progress of reforms in the pre-accession period. We estimate that economies that implemented reforms and made deeper commitments during their WTO accession negotiations grew on average 1.5 percentage points faster than they otherwise would have. These results are robust to instrumental variable estimation and falsification tests. |
| Keywords: | WTO accession, structural reforms, trade and growth |
| JEL: | F14 F43 F6 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:306821 |
| By: | Gabriel Felbermayr (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Clifton Morgan (Rice University); Constantinos Syropoulos (School of Economics, Drexel University); Yoto Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | The remarkable increase in the use of economic sanctions as a coercive tool of foreign policy over the past quarter century has been accompanied by an equally rapid growth in the number of academic and policy studies. We review recent work in this area. We start by highlighting stylized facts from the Global Sanctions Database, the most comprehensive macro source of information on sanction regimes. We then review the growing empirical literature on the effects of sanctions on economic outcomes with a special focus on trade. Finally, based on the evidence, we discuss open conceptual questions and the direction of future work in the area of sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Economic Sanctions, Data, Stylized Facts, Quantitative Evidence |
| JEL: | F13 F51 H59 N40 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:2024001 |
| By: | Wagner, Christian (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the Indian Union has experienced a significant rise in status in German and European foreign policy. This process has been fuelled by India's economic dynamism as the fastest-growing democracy and its geopolitical role as a partner in the Indo-Pacific against China's hegemonic ambitions. For Germany, India is an indispensable but difficult partner. The country will maintain its strategic autonomy and use the Sino-American rivalry to further its own geopolitical ambitions. Despite the shared commitment to a rules-based international order, there will continue to be differences in the assessment of geopolitical conflicts, as in the case of Russia's war against Ukraine. The agreements on triangular cooperation and on migration and mobility have taken Indo-German relations to a new level. The first joint military exercises in the summer of 2024, which fulfilled India's long-held wish for closer defence cooperation, will help to further deepen bilateral relations. As India is becoming increasingly important in German foreign policy, it is necessary to significantly improve expertise on the country's domestic and foreign policy developments in the German academic landscape. |
| Keywords: | Indian Union, Germany, strategic autonomy, Sino-American rivalry, geopolitical ambitions, geopolitical conflicts, Russia's war against Ukraine, Indo-German Migration and Mobility Partnership Agreement, EU-India Free Trade Agreement, global agricultural power, defence cooperation, cyberdiplomatic cooperation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:307136 |
| By: | Brennan, Louis; Eszterhai, Viktor; He, Shaowei |
| Abstract: | China's EV industry is investing heavily in Hungary giving it an additional mode of entry into the European market. As the EU attempts to protect European incumbent firms with the imposition of tariffs on EV imports from China, this investment creates a challenge for European policy makers. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:306298 |
| By: | Le Moigne, Mathilde; Lepot, Simon; Ossa, Ralph; Ritel, Marcos; Simon, Dóra Zsuzsanna |
| Abstract: | We show that climate policy can unlock large environmental gains from trade by inducing economies to specialize according to their environmental comparative advantage. We make this point by exploring the effects of a carbon tax in a quantitative trade model. Our main result is that the environmental gains from trade account for over one-third of the total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions brought about by the carbon tax. This finding holds for a wide range of carbon tax rates and coverages. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:306822 |
| By: | Xinming Du; Lei Li; Eric Zou |
| Abstract: | This paper shows a cascading mechanism through which international trade-induced deforestation results in a decline of health outcomes in cities distant from where trade activities occur. We examine Brazil, which has ramped up agricultural export over the last two decades to meet rising global demand. Using a shift-share research design, we first show that export shocks cause substantial local agricultural expansion and a virtual one-for-one decline in forest cover. We then construct a dynamic area-of-effect model that predicts where atmospheric changes should be felt - due to loss of forests that would otherwise serve to filter out and absorb air pollutants as they travel - downwind of the deforestation areas. Leveraging quasi-random variation in these atmospheric connections, we establish a causal link between deforestation upstream and subsequent rises in air pollution and premature deaths downstream, with the mortality effects predominantly driven by cardiovascular and respiratory causes. Our estimates reveal a large telecoupled health externality of trade deforestation: over 700, 000 premature deaths in Brazil over the past two decades. This equates to $0.18 loss in statistical life value per $1 agricultural exports over the study period. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.13516 |
| By: | Schwarzbauer, Wolfgang; Bittó, Virág; Koch, Philipp; Steininger, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Global value chains (GVCs) play a crucial role in today's international trade. High value-added activities tend to cluster at the start and the end of GVCs, resulting in a U-shaped relationship across production steps known as the "smile curve". The distribution of CO2 emissions along the value chain, however, is relatively unexplored. Here, we map embodied CO2 emissions in GVCs to test whether emissions are distributed differently across production stages than value-added. We find that activities with high high emissions per unit of labour compensation cluster at early stages (e.g. energy production, mining), while late stages (e.g. retail trade) exhibit lower emission intensities. This results in a downward-sloping emissions curve with tentative evidence of a frown-curve pattern. We explore several examples at different levels of aggregation and provide an interactive platform to explore the mapping of value-added and emissions across GVCs. |
| Abstract: | Globale Wertschöpfungsketten (GVCs) spielen heute eine entscheidende Rolle im internationalen Handel. Aktivitäten mit hoher Wertschöpfung tendieren dazu, sich am Anfang und am Ende von Wertschöpfungsketten zu konzentrieren, was zu einem U-förmigen Verlauf entlang der Produktionsschritte führt - der sogenannten "smile curve". Die Verteilung der CO2-Emissionen entlang der Wertschöpfungskette ist jedoch relativ unerforscht. Hier bilden wir die eingebetteten CO2-Emissionen in GVCs ab, um zu testen, ob Emissionen entlang der Produktionsstufen anders verteilt sind als die Wertschöpfung. Wir stellen fest, dass Aktivitäten mit hohen Emissionen pro Einheit Arbeitsentgelt in den frühen Stufen (z.B. Energieproduktion, Bergbau) konzentriert sind, während die späten Stufen (z.B. Einzelhandel) geringere Emissionsintensitäten aufweisen. Dies führt zu einer abwärts gerichteten Emissionskurve mit indikativen Hinweisen auf einen invers U-förmigen Verlauf. Wir untersuchen mehrere Beispiele auf unterschiedlichen Aggregationsebenen und stellen eine interaktive Plattform zur Verfügung, die es ermöglicht die Verteilung von Wertschöpfungs- und Emissionsbeiträgen entlang von verschiedenen GVCs zu erkunden. |
| Keywords: | Greenhouse gas emissions, Sustainable Development, Transition towards green economy, Global Value Chains, Multi-Regional Input-Output Model, International Trade, Climate change |
| JEL: | C67 F18 F62 F63 F64 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ecoarp:306347 |
| By: | Melanie Marten; Thomas Michael Rowley (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of the introduction of Article 173 of the 2015 Energy Transition for Green Growth (LTECV) Act on French firm-level manufacturing outcomes, with a specific focus on international trade dynamics. The carbon disclosure regulation requires institutional investors and asset managers to publicly disclose the carbon footprint of their portfolios, as well as their exposure to climate risks and their mitigation strategies. Employing a difference-in-differences approach and merging French corporate tax returns and customs data with OECD data on the carbon content of trade (TeCO2), findings show that a 10 percentage point increase in exposure to the regulation is associated with a statistically significant 5.84% drop in firm-level imported carbon emissions. Nevertheless, exposure is also associated with decreases in firm size and in trade activity. Effects are also largely driven by the more financially constrained firms. Findings highlight that increasing investor scrutiny may constrain the continued access to external financing for firms within their portfolios and impact the conduct of daily business activities of these exposed firms. Overall, the paper underscores the real effects of policies that aim to increase climate transparency to help steer investor capital towards less financially risky and more sustainable assets and projects. |
| Keywords: | PCarbon Embodied in Imports, Global Value Chains, Environmental Policy, Corporate Finance |
| JEL: | F18 Q56 Q58 G23 G30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2024-13 |
| By: | Pablo Delgado (Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain); Ángel L. González-Esteban (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Spain); Elisa Botella-Rodríguez (Universidad de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Since the mid-20th century, Spain’s meat sector has seen remarkable growth, evolving from a net importer to the world’s largest pork exporter by 2020. This work analyzes the drivers behind this transformation within the framework of food regime (FR) theories and the critical lens of food sovereignty movements. After outlining the FR and food sovereignty perspectives, we trace the development of Spain’s meat industry, examining the factors behind its domestic and international success. Additionally, we assess the impact on the feed grain sector within the broader context of global food system shifts, concluding with a summary of key insights. |
| Keywords: | meat sector, animal feed, food sovereignty, food regimes, agri-food trade |
| JEL: | Q13 Q17 Q18 N54 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2407 |
| By: | Niccolò Cannarsa; Jean-Marie Grether |
| Abstract: | Do technologies embedded in imports boost domestic productivity? This paper investigates empirically the role of complementarities between absorptive capacity and imports. Different import categories are combined with different proxies for absorptive capacity. The database covers 18 manufacturing industries across 16 European countries over the 2008-2014 period. Our findings suggest that complementarities do exist but are limited to certain types of imports (capital goods) and certain proxies of absorptive capacity (education level). These findings are robust to altering specifications or controlling for endogeneity, and reinforced when the potential non-linearity of the interaction is considered. |
| Keywords: | Capital Imports, Intermediate Imports, Absorptive Capacity, Labour Productivity |
| JEL: | F14 L60 O4 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:24-07 |
| By: | María-Isabel Ayuda (Departamento de Análisis Económico, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad de Zaragoza e IEDIS, Gran Vía 4, 50005 Zaragoza); Ernesto Clar (Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad de Zaragoza e Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2), Spain); Teresa Leach (Independent Researcher); Vicente Pinilla (Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad de Zaragoza e Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2), Spain); Raúl Serrano (Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad de Zaragoza e Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2), Spain) |
| Abstract: | This essay analyzes the evolution of Spanish agri-food exports over the past 175 years. It also reflects on the factors that have determined their performance, as well as their possible impact on the agricultural sector. Until the Civil War, these exports accounted for a significant portion of total exports and had a notable influence on final agricultural production. Although during the second half of the 20th century they lost relative weight in total trade significantly, their growth was very rapid, and consequently, their impact on production was even greater. Among their contributions to economic growth, their relevance in balancing foreign accounts throughout most of the studied period stands out. Agri-food exports have contributed to economic development by improving the purchasing capacity of the economy and generating significant backward, forward, and final demand linkages. In short, they increased real income by improving resource allocation, as the comparative advantages of agriculture and the agri-food industry were leveraged, and productive factors were utilized more efficiently. |
| Keywords: | Spanish Agricultural History, Agri-Food Exports, Spanish Foreign Trade |
| JEL: | F14 N53 N54 Q17 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2408 |
| By: | Bublu Thakur-Weigold; Sébastien Miroudot |
| Abstract: | This working paper contributes to the debate on effective solutions for assuring the resilience of critical global supply chains by undertaking a review of both the supply chain management literature and recent actions by firms and governments. The report highlights that when pursuing the resilience of global supply chains, policy should focus on the performance of the system as a whole and not target a single objective, such as security of supply. In addition, resilience strategies should be segmented to address two distinct categories of risks: business-as-usual disruptions that can be mitigated by standard risk management practices of firms and unforeseen extreme disruptions where the role of governments is crucial as facilitators and providers of emergency resources. Effective interventions include reducing logistics frictions, regulatory co-operation and flexibility, and fostering an industrial commons for emergency preparedness. Regular preparedness conferences would enable public-private stakeholders to co-ordinate responses to future crises. |
| Keywords: | Global supply chains, Risk management |
| JEL: | D81 F23 F63 H12 L23 |
| Date: | 2024–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:286-en |
| By: | Pascal Langer |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between international sanctions and coups d’état in targeted countries. Employing a panel logit model and utilizing data from 1972 to 2013 drawn from the Global Sanctions Database and the Coup Leaders Dataset, we analyze the effects of UN and Western sanctions on both occurrence of coups and successful coups. Western sanctions are found to initially increase the likelihood of coups by more than 4.0 pp with a diminishing impact over time. In the post-Cold War era, Western sanctions raise the probability of coups by 1.7 pp and successful coups by even 2.1 pp. The effects are particularly pronounced in non-democratic regimes, especially in personalist authoritarian regimes. |
| Keywords: | International Sanctions, Coups d’État |
| JEL: | D74 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:202414 |
| By: | Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses contemporary changes in the global capitalistic dynamic and their implications for political elaboration. The challenges for this programmatic elaboration are huge, especially those related to internationalization of economies – the road for a global capitalism. The role of the periphery in these metamorphoses shows how strategic it is for the making of global capitalism, highlighting how this outcome is a global hierarchy that changes over time. This evaluation introduces a discussion on six contemporary problems, from global warming to wars, indicating how international they are. An agenda for global reforms is suggested to face those challenges.' |
| Keywords: | metamorphoses of capitalism, socialism |
| JEL: | P00 P5 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td678 |
| By: | Shohei Momoda (Hiroshima University); Takayuki Ogawa (Osaka University); Ryosuke Shimizu (Ehime University) |
| Abstract: | Recent data suggest that countries with a higher accumulation of robots achieve higher economic growth. This study analyzes the international growth patterns in a two-country economy with task-based automation technology. We show that whenever one country can achieve perpetual growth by fully automating all tasks, another country can not. Thus, automation widens the international disparities in output growth. Using panel data covering 62 countries from 1994 to 2019, we empirically find that countries with more industrial robots are associated with higher economic growth through the increased accumulation of robots. |
| Keywords: | Automation; Growth patterns; International trade. |
| JEL: | F43 F62 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1109 |
| By: | Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Kauhanen, Antti |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study examines the impact of foreign acquisitions on innovation activities in Finnish target firms using comprehensive linked employer-employee data from 2010–2021. Unlike previous research that found negative effects on R&D expenditures and patenting, we measure innovation through the share of R&D personnel in total employment. Our main finding is that foreign acquisitions have a statistically insignificant and economically small impact on the share of R&D employees in target firms. Three years post-acquisition, the point estimate shows a 0.9 percentage point increase in R&D employee share, and we can rule out increases over 2 percentage points and decreases below 0.09 percentage points. This null effect persists across different firm sizes and industries. Our results suggest that con-cerns about foreign acquisitions substantially reducing domestic R&D activity may be overstated, at least when measured by R&D employment. |
| Keywords: | Acquisition, M&A, Research, Development, R&D, Innovation, Impact |
| JEL: | O3 L6 L64 |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:122 |
| By: | Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Gutmann, Jerg |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the case of Iran to evaluate how changes in the intensity of international sanctions affect internal conflict in the target country. Estimating a vector autoregressive model for the period between 2001q2 and 2020q3 with quarterly data on internal conflict and its three subcomponents (civil disorder, terrorism, and civil war) as well as a sanction intensity index, we find that an unexpected increase in sanction intensity causes an increase in both civil disorder and terrorism risk. In contrast, the risk of civil war declines after an increase in sanction intensity. These findings for Iran indicate that higher intensity sanctions may allow sender country governments to put pressure on target country political regimes without risking an outbreak of major violent conflicts. Therefore, more intensive sanctions, may also not be helpful in inducing violent regime change. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, sanction intensity, internal conflict, civil disorder, terrorism, civil war, VAR model, Iran |
| JEL: | D74 F51 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ilewps:82 |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri; Mariatzela Chatzigiannakou; Konstantinos Dellis; Christopher Deranian; Stathis Devves; Hezal Sari |
| Abstract: | Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have become critical tools for analyzing the complex interactions within agriculture and food systems, offering valuable insights for evidence-based policymaking. This paper reviews twelve widely applied agriculture and food IAMs, categorizing them into four primary sub-groups: Food Security, Land Use, and Socio-economic Models; Hydrological and Water Resources Models; Land, Crop, and Food Production Models; and Food-Energy-Water Nexus Models. The review highlights their respective capabilities, including cost minimization, depth of the food-energy-water nexus analysis, integration with other domains and tools, and spatial and temporal resolution. A comparative assessment underscores each model's unique strengths, such as resource intensity accounting in FABLE, climate-focused numerical analysis in MAgPIE and IMPACT, and resource balance optimization in GCAM and WEAP. Synergies between IAMs and their integration with other domains, including energy and economic systems, are also explored, demonstrating their potential for producing holistic scenarios addressing climate adaptation, resource constraints, and dietary transitions. The findings emphasize the significant role IAMs play in advancing the EU�s sustainability agenda, including the Green Deal and Common Agricultural Policy. By fostering tailored projections and capacity-building potential, IAMs enable interactive engagement with diverse stakeholders and provide a framework for aligning national and international policies. These integrated approaches are crucial for crafting strategies that enhance food system resilience, optimize resource use, and support climate goals, positioning IAMs as indispensable instruments for shaping sustainable and equitable food systems worldwide. |
| Date: | 2024–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2418 |