|
on International Trade |
| By: | Norring, Anni |
| Abstract: | The world is witnessing growing turbulence stemming from geopolitics and a tangible threat of economic disintegration. There are some indications of globalization in retreat, international trade growth slowing down and a transition from optimizing efficiency of global value chains towards ensuring their resilience. Disentangling the causes and effects of the various trends around global economic integration and pushing towards de-globalization is extremely difficult. This paper aims to inform the policy debate and the research agenda by giving an overarching view of geoeconomic fragmentation, i.e., economic disintegration driven by geopolitics. It defines the relevant concepts, channels of effect and amplification mechanisms, and discusses the main causes and implications of geoeconomic fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | geoeconomic fragmentation, globalization, international monetary system, global financial safety net, multilateralism, costs of economic fragmentation |
| JEL: | E61 F02 F10 F13 F15 F20 F30 F42 F60 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofecr:289479&r=int |
| By: | JINJI Naoto; OZAWA Shunya |
| Abstract: | We quantify the impact of trade and technology transfer restrictions between the United States (US) and China, technology protection policies in China, and export control laws in both countries through the US-China technological decoupling. To achieve this, we develop a dynamic quantitative general equilibrium trade model that considers foreign direct investment involving technology transfer. Our model comprises the final and intermediate goods sectors and assumes that only the latter utilizes technology capital. Our counterfactual analysis is based on data from 89 countries in 2016. We find that the US, China, and the world as a whole experience welfare losses owing to the US-China decoupling. We further observe that China’s technology protection policy affects not only countries with significant technology transfers from China but also those that rely heavily on technology capital. Countries with larger import shares from the US and China experience more substantial declines in the import of intermediate goods owing to the US and Chinese export control laws. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24041&r=int |
| By: | Sunde, Tafirenyika; Tafirenyika, Blessing; Adeyanju, Anthony |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of exports, imports, and trade openness on Namibia’s economic growth using the ARDL cointegration method. The results reveal a significant negative relationship between imports and economic growth, while exports and trade openness show positive and significant relationships with economic growth. Moreover, short-term economic growth is driven by exports, imports, and trade openness. The findings suggest that trade liberalisation and export-led growth are crucial for Namibia’s economic development. Overall, this study supports the mercantilist theory, which emphasises the importance of participating in global markets by increasing exports and trade. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; exports; imports; trade openness; export-led growth; ARDL; unit roots; cointegration; ECM |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F4 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120457&r=int |
| By: | Bum Cheul Park; Andrew Brown; Frithjof Laubinger; Peter Börkey |
| Abstract: | Global trade in plastic waste and scrap declined further (2017-2022) in 2022. The combined trade surplus of OECD Member Countries (i.e. the difference between exports and imports) continued to decrease. Less plastic waste and scrap is being exported by OECD countries to non-OECD countries, however some countries still export substantial volumes to non-OECD countries. Particularly several non-OECD south-east Asian countries remain large export destinations. Trade between OECD countries has increased. The value and composition of plastic waste and scrap exports in 2021 suggests that more high value and easy to recycle plastic waste was traded. Some volume of plastics waste is likely transformed into a “fuel” via mechanical and chemical processing and subsequently shipped as Processed Engineered Fuel (PEF) or Refuse-Derived Fuels (RDF), broadly categorised under HS 3825. There was an increase in this trade mostly between OECD countries in 2021. The trade regime remains dynamic with new export destinations emerging, which deserve further monitoring. |
| Keywords: | circular economy, plastics, trade, waste management |
| JEL: | F18 L65 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:233-en&r=int |
| By: | Campolmi, Alessia (University of Verona); Fadinger, Harald (University of Mannheim and CEPR); Forlati, Chiara (University of Southampton); Stillger, Sabine (University of Mannheim); Wagner, Ulrich J. (University of Mannheim and ZEW) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a Leakage Border Adjustment Mechanism (LBAM) as a mechanism to tackle carbon emissions and avoid leakages. It requires no knowledge of embedded emissions and can be applied to all tradable sectors. It implements import tariffs (and, possibly, export subsidies) that sterilize the changes in imports (and exports) induced by a higher EU carbon price. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2024/19&r=int |
| By: | JEONG, Hyung-gon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | U.S. sanctions on China's semiconductor industry are causing major shifts in the global supply chain, affecting South Korea's industry due to its reliance on Chinese manufacturing. The Biden administration's increased sanctions, combined with global trends towards semiconductor self-sufficiency, are putting South Korea's semiconductor position at risk. Countries such as the U.S., China, and Japan are building up their domestic semiconductor industries, potentially affecting South Korea's position in the global market. Deeply integrated with China, Korean companies, face the challenge of reducing this dependence and adapting to the evolving supply chain landscape. This paper examines the import and export trends of the South Korean semiconductor industry over the last five years to assess its global standing, identify challenges, and suggest strategic directions. Using data from the Korea Customs Service from 2019 to 2023, the study analyzes trade patterns and supply chain configurations within South Korea's semiconductor industry. The industry is divided into six main categories and 33 subcategories, based on the analysis of 381 semiconductor-related items categorized under the Harmonized System at the 10-digit level. This detailed classification allows for an in-depth examination of trade trends, supply chain structures, and associated risks within the South Korean semiconductor industry. Moreover, this research uses the classification method described and UN Comtrade statistics to create a dataset on global semiconductor trade. This dataset is used to analyze the international presence of the South Korean semiconductor industry and its market shares in China across different segments. |
| Keywords: | Global Supply Chain; Semiconductor Industry; US-China Hegemony Competition |
| Date: | 2024–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2024_008&r=int |
| By: | R, Pazhanisamy |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of BRICS unions’ currency on the Dollar and its performances on international trade among the nations. The compound reviews of literature on the classical, neo classical and modern theories of trade reveals the non existence of research works on the multinational union currencies and its impact on the validity of the dollar and the economic gain of the nations and its influence over the trade activities for which this attempt is made. Due to lack of availability of the numerical data on the new currency and its impact over the economics through trade the graphical approach is used with the logical realistic assumptions and justified how the value of currencies of BRICS nations in international market would certainly be appreciate. It also portrays that how simultaneously the dominant dollar depreciate its value through the market forces of demand and supply changes in the global scale |
| Keywords: | BRICS currency, Alternative to Dollar, Gain from trade, Value of currency in the international market, Foreign Exchange Exploitation, Solutions to US sanction |
| JEL: | E44 E51 E58 F23 F3 F33 F36 F38 F52 F55 G15 G21 P51 |
| Date: | 2024–01–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120538&r=int |
| By: | Jang, Youngook (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | This brief explores the shifting global trade landscape characterized by weakening globalization and rising protectionism, exacerbated by events such as the US-China trade disputes, COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It discusses how these factors have prompted a trend towards 'Open Strategic Autonomy' (OSA) in the European Union (EU), as evidenced by newly suggested industrial and trade policies. The EU's experiences during the pandemic and energy dependence on Russia have emphasized the need for resilient supply chains. The analysis draws from Jang et al. (2023) to examine how the EU's OSA has evolved in response to these changes, offering insights for policy implications for Korea. |
| Keywords: | Global supply chain; Industrail policy; EU |
| Date: | 2024–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2024_007&r=int |
| By: | Eichenauer, Vera; Wang, Feicheng |
| Abstract: | Openness to foreign investments is associated with risks. To mitigate these risks, many high-income countries have strengthened the control of foreign investments over the last decade in an increasing number of sectors considered critical. Investment screening distorts the market for cross-border investments in controlled sectors, which might lead to unintended economic effects. This is the first cross-country panel study to examine the economic effects of investment screening mechanisms. We combine deal-level data on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for the period 2007-2022 with information on sectoral investment screening. Using a staggered triple difference design, we estimate a reduction of 11.7 to 16.0 percent in the number of M&A in a newly screened sector. The effects are driven by minority acquisitions and deals involving a foreign government or state-owned enterprises or US firms as investors. There is no reduction in the number of deals within the EU/EFTA, most of which are not subject to screening. The findings call policymakers' attention to weighing the benefits of national security and the economic costs of introducing investment screening. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investments, national security, M&A, investment screening, global capital allocation, geoeconomic fragmentation, deglobalization |
| JEL: | F21 F52 G34 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:287757&r=int |
| By: | Hoste, J.; Verboven, F. |
| Abstract: | We develop a new approach to measure the sources of cross-border goods market segmentation. Our cost-of-living approach uncovers the relative importance of price and product availability differences, while accounting for taste differences. We implement our methodology on regionally disaggregated consumer goods data in the EU and US. The analysis reveals that price, and especially, product availability differences are much larger between than within European countries, and are only marginally larger between than within US states. Our findings imply that US states are geographically integrated, whereas EU countries remain segmented, due to trade frictions that mainly relate to fixed costs. |
| Keywords: | Geographic Market Integration, LOP Deviations, Product Availability Differences |
| JEL: | D12 F15 R32 |
| Date: | 2024–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2408&r=int |
| By: | Crowley, M. A.; Han, L.; Son, M. |
| Abstract: | Using administrative transactions data from the United Kingdom, we document a swift decline in sterling use among British exporters after the 2016 Brexit vote. Through a novel decomposition, we document most of this decline comes from two sources: (i) continuously-operating firms switching from sterling to dollars or local currencies and (ii) reductions in transactions for sterling-loyal firms. In contrast, new entrants into exporting primarily invoice in sterling before and after the Brexit vote. Our findings provide the first evidence on the quantitative relevance of new channels that contribute to changes in aggregate invoicing shares amidst political upheaval. |
| Keywords: | Invoicing Currency, Trade Transactions, Sterling, Brexit |
| JEL: | F14 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2407&r=int |
| By: | Keum, Hyeyoon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 연구에서는 산업보조금 현황을 포괄적으로 파악하기 위하여 2008년 11월부터 2023년 4월까지 국가별 정부 개입에 대한 정보를 담고 있는 글로벌 무역경보(Global Trade Alert) 데이터베이스의 보조금 통계(Corporate Subsidy Inventory)를 이용하였다. 분석 기간 전 세계 및 중국, EU, 미국의 산업보조금 현황을 시기별· 상대국별·유형별·산업별로 자세하게 살펴보았다. 또한 산업보조금이 크게 확산된 2018년 이후 중국, EU, 미국의 보조금 정책을 비교하고, 이에 따라 영향을 받는 한국의 수출입 산업 및 품목을 분석하였다. The recent trade environment has not been favorable for Korea. Since 2018, the U.S.-China trade conflict has intensified, leading to more protectionist tendencies globally, and since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has led major countries to build more resilient supply chains. As a result, subsidies have become increasingly important as a useful trade policy to address emergencies or market failures. But subsidies have the potential to distort trade and competition depending on who they target and how they are administered. And Korea, with its high trade dependence (96.8% as of 2022), can be particularly affected by the subsidy policies of its trading partners. However, the global proliferation of subsidies is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, and it is time to take a closer look at the current state of subsidy policies. In this study, I use statistics from the Global Trade Alert (GTA) database, which contains information on government intervention by country from November 2008 to April 2023, and the Corporate Subsidy Inventory, which contains information on subsidies only, to examine the status of industrial subsidies in detail. We also identify Korean industries that are associated with subsidies in major countries and analyze the trade changes of Korean industries before and after the implementation of industrial subsidy policies in major trading partners. During the analysis period, the number of industrial subsidy policies increased significantly globally. The number of subsidy measures increased from 92 in 2008 to 1, 511 in 2021, with 147 policies announced in a four-month period in 2023. The country with the most industrial subsidy policies over the same period was China, with a total of 3, 770, followed by the EU, the US, Canada, Japan, and India. Each of these countries' subsidy measures covered a wide range of products and industries and affected almost every country in the world, including Korea. Financial grants were the most common type of subsidy throughout the period, accounting for 35.9% of all measures, followed by trade finance and state loans. In addition, tax or social insurance reliefs and production subsidies have been increasingly announced in recent years.(the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | 보조금; 무역정책; 산업보조금; 보조금; 통상정책; Subsidies; trade policy; industrial subsidies; subsidies; trade policy |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepre:2023_011&r=int |
| By: | Misuraca, Roberta; Zimmermann, Klaus F. |
| Abstract: | A scarce literature deals with the consumption implications of cultural assimilation and integration, ethnic clustering and diasporas, the marginal propensity to consume, home production and allocation of time, ethnic consumption, migration, and trade, as well as native consumption responses. Consumption patterns reflect how migrants integrate into their new environment while preserving their cultural origins. The identity formation may also affect economic and societal relations between the involved countries. |
| Keywords: | ethnic identity, ethnic imports, ethnic niches, ethnic clusters, diaspora, ethnic goods, cultural assimilation, ethnosizer, consumption propensity, home production, allocation of time |
| JEL: | E21 J15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1412&r=int |
| By: | Danziger, Eliav (Simon Fraser University); Danziger, Leif (Ben Gurion University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how a minimum wage affects a firm's behavior with a competitive labor market and an uncertain export cost. The model provides several novel insights which are consistent with recent empirical evidence. Thus, a minimum wage increases an exporter's foreign-market size and may cause a non-exporter to start exporting. The foreign-market size may increase so much that, although the home-market size decreases, the overall firm size increases. |
| Keywords: | exports, minimum wage, firm size |
| JEL: | J30 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16846&r=int |
| By: | Jonathan Eaton (Pennsylvania State University); Samuel Kortum (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Interpreting individual heterogeneity in terms of probability theory has proved powerful in connecting behaviour at the individual and aggregate levels. Returning to Ricardo's focus on comparative efficiency as a basis for international trade, much recent quantitative equilibrium modeling of the global economy builds on particular probabilistic assumptions about technology. We review these assumptions and how they deliver a unified framework underlying a wide range of static and dynamic equilibrium models. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2385&r=int |
| By: | MUKOYAMA Toshihiko; NAKAKUNI Kanato; NIREI Makoto |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the Japanese economy during the Great Recession period (2007-2009). The Japanese GDP declined considerably during this period, despite little exposure to the US housing market, and exports declined significantly. Motivated by this fact, we construct a multi-sector, multi-region, and small open economy model. Each region has a representative consumer, and regions and sectors are linked through input-output linkages and consumers’ final demand. We measure the export shocks in each region using trade statistics. Using our model, we quantitatively evaluate how the decline in export demand propagates throughout the country. We find that export shocks account for a significant portion of the GDP decline in many regions. To inspect the mechanism, we conduct counterfactual exercises in which the change in GDP is decomposed within and across regions, as well as within and across sectors. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24038&r=int |
| By: | Sukhia, Jyoti |
| Abstract: | The Look East Policy, initially crafted during the early nineties by the Narsimha Rao government of India, stands as a significant embodiment of India's deliberate foreign policy approach aimed at Southeast Asia—a region known for its abundant resources and thriving prospects. Over time, this policy has evolved into a pivotal component of India's foreign relations, marking a distinct departure from its traditional foreign policy priorities. The Look East Policy has not only gained substantial momentum but has also acquired strategic depth. Both India and Southeast Asia share deep-rooted cultural and civilizational ties, and they share common interests spanning trade, tourism, investment, joint ventures, counterterrorism, climate change mitigation, and natural disaster relief. As major players in the global economy, their collaboration holds the potential to drive the development of the broader Asian region, benefiting the Asia-Pacific as well. Nonetheless, building a robust partnership in the 21st century will demand both ASEAN and India to surmount formidable challenges and capitalize on significant opportunities with a cooperative and forward-looking perspective. This paper aims to illustrate the burgeoning cooperation between India and ASEAN across various domains while addressing the obstacles impeding their collaboration. Subsequently, it will conclude by exploring areas of alignment between India and the countries of Southeast Asia. |
| Keywords: | India, foreign policy, ASEAN, economic trade, security cooperation, political and strategic dimensions |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F16 |
| Date: | 2024–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120384&r=int |
| By: | Camarero, Mariam (University Jaume I and INTECO, Department of Economics); Moliner, Sergi (University of Valencia and INTECO, Department of Economic); Tamarit, Cecilio (University of Valencia and INTECO, Department of Applied Economics II) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how European monetary integration has affected US outward FDI. It finds that at a worldwide level, the Single Market had a larger impact on US FDI than the euro. However, the effect of the euro is also sizeable, ranging between 15% and 64%. |
| Keywords: | FDI determinants, US, European Union, BMA, PPML, G-PPML |
| JEL: | F21 F23 C11 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2024/18&r=int |
| By: | Accominotti, Olivier; Albers, Thilo; Kessler, Philippe; Oosterlinck, Kim |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that international and domestic political economy factors are key determinants of creditor countries’ commercial policy responses to sovereign debt defaults. We illustrate this argument using a unique historical case study: the German external default of the 1930s. Our new historical narrative of this episode reveals that the various creditor countries adopted markedly different trade policy responses to the default depending on their degree of economic leverage on Germany and on the relative political influence of various interest groups within their domestic economy. These factors account for the pattern of Germany’s bilateral trade with the different creditor countries during the 1930s as well as for the differential treatment of various countries’ bondholders by the German government. |
| Keywords: | sovereign risk; trade; creditor discrimination; commercial policy; FP7/2007-2013/ under REA grant agreement n◦ 608129 |
| JEL: | N74 F10 |
| Date: | 2024–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122087&r=int |
| By: | Meyer, Timothy Andreas |
| Abstract: | U.S. equity outperformance and sustained dollar appreciation have led to large valuation gains for the rest of the world on the U.S. external position. The author constructs their global distribution, carefully accounting for the role of tax havens. Valuation gains are concentrated and large in developed countries, while developing countries have been mostly bypassed. To assess the welfare implications of these capital gains, the author adopts a sufficient statistics approach. In contrast to the large wealth changes, most countries so far did not benefit much in welfare terms. This is because they did not rebalance their portfolios and realize their gains, while they were further hurt by rising import prices from the strong dollar. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Assets, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects |
| JEL: | F21 F32 F40 G15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:287755&r=int |
| By: | A. Fronzetti Colladon; R. Vestrelli; S. Bait; M. M. Schiraldi |
| Abstract: | Various macroeconomic and institutional factors hinder FDI inflows, including corruption, trade openness, access to finance, and political instability. Existing research mostly focuses on country-level data, with limited exploration of firm-level data, especially in developing countries. Recognizing this gap, recent calls for research emphasize the need for qualitative data analysis to delve into FDI determinants, particularly at the regional level. This paper proposes a novel methodology, based on text mining and social network analysis, to get information from more than 167, 000 online news articles to quantify regional-level (sub-national) attributes affecting FDI ownership in African companies. Our analysis extends information on obstacles to industrial development as mapped by the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. Findings suggest that regional (sub-national) structural and institutional characteristics can play an important role in determining foreign ownership. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.10239&r=int |
| By: | Lee, Neil |
| Abstract: | Two of the canonical approaches in regional studies are global production networks (GPNs) and evolutionary economic geography (EEG). Recent geopolitical and economic events have shown the importance of both theories in explaining regional economic change. Yet they remain discrete and separate, and there is now consensus that, together, they could explain more. A vibrant debate on the relationship between these two approaches is needed, starting with identifying unifying themes and areas of analytical difference, to develop a research agenda for future work which can better explain regional change. |
| Keywords: | complexity; evolutionary economic geography; global production networks; global value chains; relatedness; T&F deal |
| JEL: | D00 F23 |
| Date: | 2024–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121961&r=int |
| By: | Michael Keen; Christos Kotsogiannis |
| Abstract: | Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanisms (BCAMs) are becoming reality in the EU and elsewhere, and recur—in very different form—in U.S. legislative proposals. But they remain contentious, with features and differences that leave the underlying welfare rationale and implications unclear. Exploring these, this paper establishes two general principles for Pareto efficient BCAM design: regulatory measures should be recognized symmetrically with explicit carbon prices; and, whatever the ambition of mitigation in the BCA-imposing country, a general ‘difference-in-differences’ form of a BCAM is appropriate. These nest, as special cases, the very different approaches to BCAM design in Europe and the U.S. |
| Keywords: | environmental taxation, carbon pricing, border tax adjustment, international taxation |
| JEL: | H21 H23 H87 F18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11016&r=int |
| By: | Ruderman, Anne; van Waijenburg, Marlous |
| Abstract: | The revocation of the Royal African Company's (RAC) monopoly in 1698 inaugurated a transformation of the transatlantic slave trade. While the RAC's exit from the slave trade has received scholarly attention, little is known about the company's response to the loss of its trading privileges. Not only did the end of the company's monopoly increase competition, but the unprecedented numbers of private traders who entered the trade exacerbated the company's principal-agent problems on the West African coast. To analyze the company's behavior in the post-monopoly period, we exploit a series of 292 instruction letters that the RAC issued to its slave-ship captains between 1685 and 1706, coding each individual command in the letters. Our database reveals two new insights into the company's response to its upended competitive landscape. First, the RAC showed a remarkable degree of organizational flexibility, reacting to a heightened principal-agent problem. Second, its response was facilitated by the infrastructure of the transatlantic slave trade, which gave the company a monitoring mechanism by virtue of the slave-ship captains who continually sailed to the West African coast. |
| Keywords: | business history; monopolies; slave trade; CUP deal |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2023–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120506&r=int |
| By: | James H. Stock; Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins |
| Abstract: | From 2015 to 2023, the United States transformed from a net importer of natural gas to the world's largest liquified natural gas (LNG) exporter. We find that this surge in LNG exports has reconnected U.S. gas prices to world market prices, after a hiatus of “shut-in” fracked gas. We estimate that the domestic gas price effect of this recoupling is comparable to a $30/ton carbon tax. For coal prices, which are coupled to gas through competition in the power sector, this effect is comparable to a $20/ton carbon tax. Using the NREL ReEDS model, we estimate that this recoupling reduces U.S. 2030 power sector CO2 emissions by roughly 145 million metric tons. These domestic estimates contribute to estimating the overall climate impact of LNG exports. |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32228&r=int |
| By: | Serenella Caravella; Giovanni Cerulli; Francesco Crespi; Eleonora Pierucci |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the growth-enhancing effect of different types of innovative activities, i.e., standard-innovation and eco-innovation by focusing on the potential role of exports in mediating the innovation-growth nexus. The empirical study is carried out on a representative sample of Italian firms built by integrating data from the Italian CIS-Community Innovation Survey with the ASIA-FRAME database of the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT), which reports information on export values and employment dynamics. The econometric analysis applies Structural Equations Models (SEM) and a two-step counterfactual analysis. Results show that export activities, spurred by engagement in innovation efforts, represent a powerful transmission channel through which innovation displays its effect on firms’ growth. Moreover, results highlight the existence of some heterogeneity in the capacity of different types of innovation activities, i.e., standard-innovation and eco-innovation to leverage the export channel to foster firms’ growth. In particular, the empirical evidence has identified a stronger indirect export-mediated impact for Efficiency-improving (EFI) than for Pollutionreducing (PR) Eco-innovation. |
| Keywords: | Eco-innovation, Export-mediated effect, Innovation-growth nexus |
| JEL: | Q52 Q55 L25 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0282&r=int |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; David Rapson; Burkhard Schipper |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We show that the embargo forced Russia to accept a $32/bbl discount on its Urals crude in March 2023 relative to January 2022, nearly half of which is directly attributable to the higher cost of shipping crude oil over longer distances, as Russia diverted much of its crude oil exports to India. Based on a calibrated model of global oil supply and demand, the remainder ($17/bbl) can be explained by increased Indian bargaining power. We also provide a similar analysis for the ESPO price discount on exports to China. In contrast, the price cap deprived Russia of the financial resources it spent on assembling a “shadow” fleet of tankers, but its effect on the Russian oil export price was negligible once the adoption of the price cap had facilitated the use of Western services to transport Russian oil to Asia. |
| Keywords: | Russia; oil; sanctions; embargo; price caps |
| Date: | 2024–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:98000&r=int |
| By: | Jinno, Masatoshi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the imperfect substitutability between foreign workers and native residents in Japan. It utilizes a production function to analyze how foreign workers impact native wage rates, employing data from Japan's Basic Wage Structure Survey. The study finds significant, yet theoretically unexpected results regarding the wage rate and annual income ratios between native and foreign workers. Despite the significance of its findings, the paper acknowledges limitations and the need for further research, especially concerning classification by residency status. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Workers, Imperfect Substitutability, Productivity |
| JEL: | J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120317&r=int |
| By: | Dany Bahar; Rebecca J. Brough; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | The inflow of refugees and their subsequent integration can be an important challenge for both the refugees themselves and the host society. Policy interventions can improve the lives and economic success of refugees and of their communities. In this paper, we review the socioeconomic integration policy interventions focused on refugees and the evidence surrounding them. We also highlight some interesting topics for future research and stress the need to rigorously evaluate their effectiveness and implications for the successful integration of refugees. |
| JEL: | H53 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32266&r=int |