|
on International Trade |
| By: | Lukman Oyelami; Amara Zongo (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the African Union launched negotiations to establish an African free trade agreement named AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area). This paper examines the effects of the AfCFTA on intra-African trade in the short and long term. Associated with the implementation of this trade agreement, this paper assesses the impact of a reduction of 90% in import tariffs and 50% in non-tariff barriers (NTBs) for goods and services on GDP and intra-African trade. In this study, we highlighted the role of services in intra-African trade. We use the computable general equilibrium model (GTAP) and ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTBs in services calculated using the Services Trade Restrictiveness Indices (STRIs) from the World Bank database following the Australian Productivity Commission's methodology. Our results suggest that liberalization of services stimulates GDP growth in the long run. The reduction of NTBs in services leads to a rise in intra-African exports of agricultural products, manufactured goods, processed food, fuel, energy-intensive products, wood and paper products, textiles and clothing in the long run. The manufacturing and natural resources sectors are the most affected by the reduction of barriers to services trade in Africa. Moreover, this trade agreement creates both long-term trade creationand diversion. |
| Keywords: | AfCFTA,Restrictions in Services,Trade in services,GTAP model |
| Date: | 2022–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03775450&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | International Economics and Trade - Foreign Direct Investment Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Investment and Investment Climate |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35967&r= |
| By: | Kamei, Keita; Inomata, Kentaro |
| Abstract: | Trade barriers can exist variably and are not just limited to tariffs. Based on a bilateral trade model under international oligopolistic competition, we show that governments endogenously determine red-tape barriers (RTBs), which are trade barriers caused by wasteful administrative procedures. We also find that RTBs can have the opposite reaction to tariffs. Particularly, we find that the fall in the RTB level can be larger than the rise in tariffs (backlash effects). Finally, in the case of a coordinated tariff rate increase under a free trade agreement between the two countries, it is shown that an increase in tariffs can improve consumer surplus, producer surplus, and government income and expenditure. |
| Keywords: | red-tape barriers(RTBs), oligopolistic competition, tariff, backlash, welfare analysis. |
| JEL: | F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2022–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114541&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Education - Education For All Environment - Natural Resources Management International Economics and Trade - Export Competitiveness International Economics and Trade - Foreign Direct Investment International Economics and Trade - International Trade and Trade Rules Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35627&r= |
| By: | Hulya Ulku; Gabriel Zaourak |
| Keywords: | International Economics and Trade - Export Competitiveness International Economics and Trade - Trade Facilitation International Economics and Trade - Trade and Regional Integration Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Investment and Investment Climate Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Remittances Private Sector Development - Business Environment Private Sector Development - Global Value Chains and Business Clustering |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:36051&r= |
| By: | Phiri Kampanje, Brian |
| Abstract: | Malawi is an undoubtedly the net importer of goods and services. It is deemed less competitive on the global scale despite putting significant effort to widen export base as often prescribed in the country’s developmental agendas such as the Malawi Growth and Development Strategies (MDGDs) I, II and III, National Export Strategy (NES) and National Export Strategy (NES) II as well as the Vision 2063 through MIP 1 (2021-2030). This adverse scenario is attributed to the lack of clear set targets to be achieved by our trade attachés, porous borders leading to uncounted exports, failure to record exports in some years and other factors. It is recommended that MIP1 and NES II should address the shortfalls for better Malawi. |
| Keywords: | Deficiencies; Malawi; Development; Exports |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F19 F63 O10 O17 |
| Date: | 2022–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114356&r= |
| By: | Shuichiro Nishioka (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Eric Olson (The University of Tulsa) |
| Abstract: | The 1974 trade act substantially increased the executive branch's authority in trade negotiations through the granting of fast-track and Section 301 authority. This paper evaluates the effect on U.S. voting behavior resulting from trade with Japan over 1976-1992 time period after the act was passed. To capture U.S. trade exposures to Japan, we develop the Bartik index from Autor et al (2013) for import competition with Japan and show that local exposure to import competition had statistically significant negative impacts on Republican presidential candidates over the 1976-1984 period. Although the second Reagan administration used Section 301 to open Japan's markets and Japanese firms shifted production to the United States, job-creation effects of exports and foreign direct investment did not have any influence on voting outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Trade exposure, U.S. trade with Japan in the 1980s, U.S. presidential elections |
| JEL: | F13 P26 P33 R13 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:22-04&r= |
| By: | Vanessa I. Alviarez; Cheng Chen; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar; Liliana Varela; Kei-Mu Yi; Hongyong Zhang |
| Abstract: | We study the role of multinationals (MNCs) in facilitating firm-level and aggregate structural transformation. Using a stylized model of multinational production and trade, we show that an inward multinational liberalization in the manufacturing sector raises employment in host country firms, and decreases manufacturing employment, while also raising services employment, in the parent firms. We also show the conditions under which aggregate structural transformation occurs. We test the model's firm-level predictions by using confidential microdata from Japan. We study the response of Japanese MNC parents and of their affiliates in China to an exogenous change in China's openness to foreign direct investment (FDI). We find that in industries where inward FDI was encouraged, Japan MNC's affiliates in China experienced increases in their employment. We also find that MNC parents in the encouraged industries experienced decreases in home country manufacturing employment and increases in home country services and R&D employment. Finally, using microdata for several advanced and middle-income countries, we decompose the change in overall manufacturing employment shares into MNC and non-MNC components. We find a significant role for MNCs across all countries, suggesting the mechanism we highlight is an important global driver of structural transformation. |
| JEL: | F41 F44 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30494&r= |
| By: | Sjöholm, Fredrik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Chinese investment abroad has grown significantly in connection with the Belt and Road Initiative. This article tries to answer two questions: first, what considerations gave birth to the BRI? And second, what are the project’s economic effects in terms of capital flows and international trade? It is found that the project is, above all, a way to deal with large surplus capacity in China’s capital-intensive industries, to increase growth in relatively poor regions of the country, and to secure a supply of energy and raw materials. For other countries involved in the project, BRI investments are a means to increase production and international trade. International trade and foreign direct investment have been positively affected, although to a limited extent. Finally, there are concerns that lack of transparency in Chinese lending may lead to increased corruption, and that some countries will face financial difficulties. |
| Keywords: | The Belt and Road; China; Trade; FDI; Investments |
| JEL: | F10 F20 O10 O50 |
| Date: | 2022–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1439&r= |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | International demand shocks are transmitted within the trade and ownership firms' networks and impact directly or indirectly domestic firm productivity and labor misallocation. Considering manufacturing firms for Italy, Spain and France over the period 2009-2017, we quantify these transmission channels from the global economy to the domestic firms, and within the domestic economy across locations, sectors and firms. We compute in a shift share fashion international demand shock at the district-sector-year level as plausibly exogenous to individual firms. Our results confirm that global shocks are transmitted through trade networks and that this transmission is largely mediated by firms' ownership networks both across and within the borders of the three countries. |
| Keywords: | Globalization;Productivity;Networks;FDI |
| JEL: | F14 F23 F61 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-08&r= |
| By: | Daniel Berkowitz (University of Pittsburgh); Shuichiro Nishioka (West Virginia University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using recent methods for estimating firm-level markups and profit shares, we document that Chinese manufacturing firms collected more rents following China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). This is because the net entry of firms lagged the massive growth in the domestic market. These effects were particularly strong in domestic markets where state ownership was pervasive. While selection on large productive firms drove the rise in the aggregate markups in the United State (De Loecker et al, 2020), these competitive forces played a secondary role in Chinese manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | Markups, Profit shares, Net entry, Market expansion, Trade liberalization in China |
| JEL: | F13 L11 O19 O53 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:22-05&r= |
| By: | Jaan Masso (Tartu University); Priit Vahter (Tartu University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the productivity effects for domestic suppliers from joining and exiting the value chains of multinational enterprises (MNEs). The vast majority of prior literature has relied on sector-level input-output tables in estimating the effects of vertical linkages of FDI. Instead, our econometric analysis of the creation and destruction of backward linkages of MNEs is based on information on firm-to-firm transactions recorded in the valued added tax declarations data. Treatment analysis based on propensity score matching and panel data from Estonia suggests that starting to supply multinationals initially boosts the value added per employee of domestic firms, including effects on the scale of production and the capitallabour ratio. These first linkages to MNEs do not affect the total factor productivity (TFP) of domestic firms, suggesting that TFP effects take time to materialise. We further find that there are limits to the wider diffusion of the effects of linkages to MNEs. We find no significant positive effects on the second-tier suppliers: the positive effects are limited to the first-tier suppliers with direct links to MNEs. One novel result is the evidence that the productivity of suppliers does not fall, on average, after decreasing or ending supplier relationships with MNE customers |
| Keywords: | FDI, supplier upgrading, global value chains, vertical spillovers, backward linkages |
| JEL: | F14 F23 F61 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bai:egeiwp:egei_wp-1_2022&r= |
| By: | Defever, Fabrice; Riaño, Alejandro |
| Abstract: | We derive closed-form expressions for the distribution of export intensity when firm-destination-specific revenue shifters are distributed gamma, Fréchet and Weibull in a two-country model of trade with isoelastic demand. We estimate the parameters governing the distribution of export intensity for each type of revenue shifter across 72 countries. We compare the model's fit to the distribution of export intensity across countries when revenue shifters are distributed lognormal, gamma and Fréchet/Weibull. While lognormal slightly outperforms the other distributions, all revenue shifters considered reproduce salient features of export intensity distributions within and between countries quite successfully. |
| Keywords: | export intensity distribution; exports; firm heterogeneity |
| JEL: | J1 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2022–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:116625&r= |
| By: | Bellak, Christian; Leibrecht, Markus; Chaisse, Julien |
| Abstract: | The paper contributes to the debate on the effects of reforms of bilateral investment treaties on Foreign Direct Investment. So far studies show mixed empirical evidence as to the existence of positive effects on Foreign Direct Investment, pointing to rather small impacts. However, isolating the impact of a reform of bilateral investment treaties on Foreign Direct Investment is plagued by methodological issues as well as data restrictions. This paper adds to the literature as it mitigates some of these limitations by focusing on a particular reform-step in China’s international treaty policy, namely the substitution of a first-generation bilateral investment treaty with a much more “investor-friendly” third-generation bilateral investment treaty. Our basic findings, derived from a two-way fixed-effects framework, suggest that the more investor-friendly third-generation bilateral investment treaties indeed increase Foreign Direct Investment stocks in China. These findings are of policy relevance not only for capital importing countries, but also from the viewpoint of China’s increasing relevance as an outward investor in countries included in the Belt and Road initiative. |
| Keywords: | China; Foreign Direct Investment; Bilateral Investment Treaties; Reform |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:26021124&r= |
| By: | Bettina Meinhart |
| Abstract: | International climate targets have far-reaching implications for all areas of the economy and life, including trade policy. To reach the target of the Paris Agreement, it may be necessary to link trade and environmental policy, whereby one way of linking the two policy areas is to include environmental provisions (EPs) in trade agreements. Several motives for including environmental concerns in trade agreements exist, ranging from promoting environmental cooperation and ensuring a level playing field to pursuing protectionist interests. In principle, the inclusion of environmental aspects is not a new development. Since the 1990s, EPs have been frequently integrated into trade agreements, for example on issues such as hazardous waste, deforestation or biodiversity protection. In recent years, as climate initiatives have gained prominence at the EU level, the number of EPs in trade agreements has steadily increased. Thereby, the inclusion of these concerns is very heterogeneous in terms of the subject matter and enforceability. A closer look at the enforceability indicator is crucial, because if EPs are not legally enforceable, addressing environmental concerns may not have an impact on trade and the environment. The European Commission is aware of this issue and therefore published the review of its policy chapter on trade and sustainable development in June 2022. This identifies how the contribution of EU trade agreements to promoting environmental protection can be improved, mentioning, among other actions, the strengthening of enforcement through trade sanctions as a last resort. Whether the current changes are effective in terms of environmental and trade impacts will be seen in further research. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2022:i:055&r= |
| By: | Xiaohua Bao; Hailiang Huang; Larry D Qiu; Xiaozhuo Wang |
| Abstract: | The notion that the exchange rate affects exports is well understood. However, whether exporters respond to the expectations of the exchange rate is unknown. Hence, in this study, we construct a measure of exchange rate expectations based on news articles from the Factiva database. We use machine learning to identify and classify news articles about the appreciation of the renminbi (RMB, Chinese currency). Our empirical estimation shows that from 2000 to 2006, Chinese firms reduced their exports in response to a higher expectation of RMB appreciation. They switched their sales from export to domestic markets. The responses are larger in low-productivity firms, state-owned enterprises, processing trade, and final goods trade. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate expectation; Exports; RMB appreciation |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:2022-07&r= |
| By: | Bruno Conte |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impacts of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) on migration and other economic outcomes. I develop a quantitative spatial model that captures the role of trade networks, migration barriers, and agricultural yields on the geography of the economy. I combine the model with forecasts of future crop yields to find that climate change, by the end of the century, reduces SSA real GDP per capita by 1.8 percent and displaces 4 million individuals. Migration barriers in SSA are very stringent: if absent, climate-induced migration exceeds 100 million individuals. Still, migration and trade are powerful adaptation mechanisms. Reducing migration barriers to the European Union (EU) standards eliminates the aggregate economic losses of climate change in SSA, but at the cost of more climate migration and higher regional inequality. Also reducing trade frictions to the EU levels attenuates this cost and makes SSA better off on aggregate and distributional terms. |
| Keywords: | climate change, migration, economic geography |
| JEL: | O15 Q54 R12 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9948&r= |
| By: | Emmanuel Dhyne (: Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium); Ayumu Ken Kikkawa (Sauder School of Business, UBC); Toshiaki Komatsu (University of Chicago); Magne Mogstad (University of Chicago and NBER); Felix Tintelnot, (University of Chicago and NBER) |
| Abstract: | We quantify and explain the firm responses and worker impacts of foreign demand shocks to domestic production networks. To capture that firms can be indirectly exposed to such shocks by buying from or selling to domestic firms that import or export, we use Belgian data with information on both domestic firm-to-firm sales and foreign trade transactions. Our estimates of firm responses suggest that Belgian firms pass on a large share of a foreign demand shock to their domestic suppliers, face upward-sloping labor supply curves, and have sizable fixed overhead costs in labor. Motivated and guided by these findings, we develop and estimate an equilibrium model that allows us to study how idiosyncratic and aggregate changes in foreign demand propagate through a small open economy and affect firms and workers. Our results suggest that the way the labor market is typically modeled in existing research on foreign demand shocks — with no fixed costs and perfectly elastic labor supply — would grossly understate the decline in real wages due to an increase in foreign tariffs. |
| Keywords: | : Production networks, Foreign demand shocks, Imperfect labor market, Fixed costs. |
| JEL: | F16 J22 E00 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202209-412&r= |
| By: | Céline Piton (: Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium & Université libre de Bruxelles (SBS-EM, CEBRIG, DULBEA)); Ilse Ruyssen (Department of Economics—CESSMIR, Ghent University, UNU-CRIS, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | Throughout Europe, the labour market integration of immigrants tends to lag behind that of natives. This paper empirically analyses the role played by integration policies in closing this gap in EU countries, not only directly, through the employment rate but also indirectly by influencing the intensity and the composition of immigration flows. Relying on the Migration Integration Policy Indicator (MIPEX), we find that countries with more developed integration policies do not necessarily have higher immigrant employment rates. This finding is due to the fact that different types of policies have opposite effects: policies favouring family reunion, tackling discrimination and allowing for political participation seem to increase the labour market integration of immigrants, while the latter is negatively associated with a higher labour market mobility, as well as easier access to permanent residence and nationality. Only the positive effect of anti-discrimination policies survives the inclusion of country fixed effects though. Effects are found to vary across immigrants coming from EU versus non-EU countries, suggesting that there is no one-fits-all integration policy. Moreover, our results confirm that immigrants’ labour market integration varies with the skill composition of the migrant population, a higher level of qualification favouring employment. The composition of the immigrant population within a country in terms of skill levels, however, could also be influenced by integration policies in potential destination countries, a premise which we also test. We show that integration policies indeed act as a pull factor for migration in a gravity model that controls also for the restrictiveness and skill selectivity of migration policies. Yet, it seems that more elaborate integration policies affect primarily the number of high-skilled immigrants entering the territory, but not the number of medium or low skilled, and this only for those from EU countries. Different factors hence seem to be at play for the low and medium skilled, but once moved, our results show that low-skilled migrants are the ones benefitting the most from integration policies in terms of employment rate. |
| Keywords: | : Integration policies, Immigration, Labour market. |
| JEL: | J08 J15 J18 J21 J78 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202209-411&r= |
| By: | Fariha Kamal; Jessica McCloskey; Wei Ouyang |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the construction of two confidential crosswalk files enabling a comprehensive identification of multinational rms in the U.S. economy. The effort combines firm-level surveys on direct investment conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the U.S. Census Bureau's Business Register (BR) spanning the universe of employer businesses from 1997 to 2017. First, the parent crosswalk links BEA firm-level surveys on U.S. direct investment abroad and the BR. Second, the affiliate crosswalk links BEA firm-level surveys on foreign direct investment in the United States and the BR. Using these newly available links, we distinguish between U.S.- and foreign-owned multinational firms and describe their prevalence and economic activities in the national economy, by sector, and by geography. |
| Keywords: | multinational rms, records matching, machine learning |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:22-39&r= |
| By: | García-Suaza, A; Gallego, J. M.; Mayorga, J. D.; Mondragón-Mayo, A.; Sepúlveda, C.; Sarango, A. |
| Abstract: | The increase in global immigration phenomena has impacted local labor markets. The process of social and economic assimilation is crucial to ensure the well-being of both natives and immigrants. This article analyzes the impacts of immigration from Venezuela to Colombia, differentiating the effects of recent and long-term immigration on natives and immigrants. We find that immigration has decreased employment and hourly wages; and increased informality, while the impact on unemployment is null. These effects are higher among immigrants in comparison with the native population. Our results show that even when adverse effects on labor market outcomes are estimated, there is evidence of adaptability to the immigration shock and that an assimilation process is taking place. |
| Keywords: | Migration, labor market, assimilation, Colombia. |
| JEL: | F22 O15 R23 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:020417&r= |
| By: | James Lake; Ding Liu |
| Abstract: | President Bush imposed safeguard tariffs on steel in early 2002. Using US input-output tables and a generalized difference-in-difference methodology, we analyze the local labor market employment effects of these tariffs depending on the local labor market’s reliance on steel as an input and as part of local production. We find the tariffs did not boost local steel employment but substantially depressed local employment in steel-consuming industries for many years after Bush removed the tariffs. These large and persistent negative effects were concentrated in local labor markets that had low human capital or were strongly specialized in steel-consuming industries. |
| Keywords: | Bush steel tariffs, safeguard tariffs, local labor markets, intermediate inputs, downstream, steel-consuming |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9909&r= |
| By: | Cogliano, Jonathan F.; Veneziani, Roberto; Yoshihara, Naoki |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a framework to analyse imperialistic international relations and the dynamics of international exploitation. A new measure of unequal exchange across borders is proposed which captures the territorial structure of imperialistic international relations: wealthy nations are net lenders and exploiters, whereas endowment-poor countries are net borrowers and exploited. Capital flows transfer surplus from countries in the periphery of the global economy to those in the core. However, while international credit markets and wealth inequalities are central in generating international exploitation, other factors, including labour-saving technical change, are shown to be essential in explaining its persistence. |
| Keywords: | International exploitation, Imperialism, Unequal exchange, Uneven development, Capital movements |
| JEL: | F54 B51 D63 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:736&r= |
| By: | Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ekrame Boubtane (CERDI - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherche en Droit de l'Immatériel - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - Université Paris-Saclay, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Dramane Coulibaly (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article quantifies the effects of increasing global geopolitical uncertainty on the size of migration flows to Western Europe. Uncertainty is measured by the number of victims of terrorist attacks worldwide. The effect on migration flows is quantified through the estimation of vector autoregressive models on a panel of 15 European countries and on France, thanks to an original migration dataset. The estimations suggest that the flows of permanent migrants are generally reduced by global terrorism. In particular, the increase in uncertainty that followed the attacks of September 11, 2001, caused an 8% drop in flows to Europe and a 19% drop in flows to France. The effect of global uncertainty on the flow of asylum seekers depends on the country: on average in Europe, asylum applications increase with terrorism, but for France, they decrease with terrorism. This difference can be explained by the geographical position and border control policies of France. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty,Terrorism,Migration,September 11,2001 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03770391&r= |
| By: | Sugata Marjit; Krishnendu Ghosh Dastidar; Gouranga Gopal Das |
| Abstract: | In this paper, unlike the conventional wisdom, we demonstrate that the relationship between the size of the market and number of firms would be non-monotonic. While moderate rise in the size would force the local firms to exit and only the foreign firm rules, substantial rise in the size would accommodate all firms. Also, the possibility of survival increases if the local firms could differentiate their product more and then we drift towards the conventional result. |
| Keywords: | product differentiation, free entry, Cournot, output, market size, technology, FDI |
| JEL: | L13 D40 F10 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9934&r= |
| By: | Hermann Ndoya (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of digital divide on income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2004-2016. In applying a finite mixture model (FMM) to a sample of 35 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, this study posits that digital divide affects income inequality differently. Our findings show that the effect of digital divide on income inequality varies across two distinct groups of countries, which differ according to their level of globalization. In addition, the study shows that, most globalized countries are more inclined to be in the group where the effect of digital divide on income inequality is negative. The results are consistent to several robustness checks, including alternative measures of income inequality and additional control variables. The study complements that extant literature by assessing linkages between the digital divide, globalization and income inequality in sub-Saharan African countries contingent on cross-country heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | Digital Divide, Income Inequality, Globalization, Finite Mixture model |
| JEL: | C14 O15 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:22/064&r= |
| By: | Aldo Barrios; Rob Franolic; Davide Giovanardi; Michael Melvin |
| Abstract: | FX trade settlement data from CLS provides the most comprehensive view of the opaque market of OTC currency trades. We use the flows of investment funds and non-financial corporates and develop trading signals where the former reflects speculative strategies, while the latter trade for liquidity needs. The implication is we trade in the direction of the funds flows and trade against large corporate flows, which should be followed by price reversals. Trading with informed flows yields positive risk-adjusted performance. Incorporating the liquidity trades signal improves risk-adjusted performance and greatly lowers the tail risk of the model. |
| Keywords: | foreign exchange, currency flows, informed trading, currency investing |
| JEL: | F31 G15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9921&r= |
| By: | Rania Gihleb; Osea Giuntalla; Luca Stella |
| Abstract: | How does previous exposure to massive immigrant inflows affect concerns about current immigration and the integration of refugees? To answer this question, we investigate attitudes toward newcomers among natives and previous immigrants. In areas that in the 1990s received higher inflows of immigrants of German origin—so-called ethnic Germans—native Germans are more likely to believe that refugees are a resource for the economy and the culture, viewing them as an opportunity rather than a risk. Refugees living in these areas report better health and feel less exposed to xenophobia. |
| Keywords: | immigration, refugees, birthplace diversity, public opinion |
| JEL: | A13 D64 J60 I31 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9941&r= |
| By: | Bogdanova, Iryna |
| Abstract: | WTI researcher, Iryna Bogdanova, published a new book titled "Unilateral Sanctions in International Law and the Enforcement of Human Rights. The Impact of the Principle of Common Concern of Humankind". The book is available for download for free (Open Access) thanks to the support of the Swiss National Science Foundation. Abstract Are unilateral economic sanctions legal under public international law? How do they relate to the existing international legal principles and norms? Can unilateral economic sanctions imposed to redress grave human rights violations be subjected to the same legal contestations as other unilateral sanctions? What potential contribution can the recently formulated doctrine of Common Concern of Humankind make by introducing substantive and procedural prerequisites to legitimise unilateral human rights sanctions? Unilateral Sanctions in International Law and the Enforcement of Human Rights by Iryna Bogdanova addresses these complex questions while taking account of the burgeoning state practice of employing unilateral economic sanctions. The author Iryna Bogdanova. She holds a Ph.D. degree (2020) from the World Trade Institute, University of Berne. She has published contributions analysing various aspects of economic statecraft, legality of economic sanctions, national security exceptions in international economic law and regulation of emerging technologies. |
| Date: | 2022–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1373&r= |
| By: | Yutong Lu; Gesine Reinert; Mihai Cucuringu |
| Abstract: | The time proximity of high-frequency trades can contain a salient signal. In this paper, we propose a method to classify every trade, based on its proximity with other trades in the market within a short period of time, into five types. By means of a suitably defined normalized order imbalance associated to each type of trade, which we denote as conditional order imbalance (COI), we investigate the price impact of the decomposed trade flows. Our empirical findings indicate strong positive correlations between contemporaneous returns and COIs. In terms of predictability, we document that associations with future returns are positive for COIs of trades which are isolated from trades of stocks other than themselves, and negative otherwise. Furthermore, trading strategies which we develop using COIs achieve conspicuous returns and Sharpe ratios, in an extensive experimental setup on a universe of 457 stocks using daily data for a period of three years. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2209.10334&r= |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Asheim, Bjørn (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Understanding, explaining, and affecting regional economic resilience and transformation has become more important in recent years than a narrow economic growth perspective. The paper investigates why, how and to what consequences local actors engage in regional development during and after crisis times to understand the role of human agency for regional resilience. We identify the differences in the underlying processes that lead to adaptation – bouncing back to economic activities existing before the crisis, adaptability – bouncing forward or diversification into new economic activities, or transformation – bouncing beyond the current organization of the economy towards a more green and inclusive future. In our empirical study of the maritime industry in Sunnmøre/Norway, we found two starkly contrasting development rationales: a traditional, neoliberal economic rationale of globalization, and a progressive rationale combining regenerative regional development with responsible value chains. We trace the origin of these rationales and show how they differ in agentic orientation and time perspective. Subsequently, we engage in a theoretical discussion about the downsides of global value chains embedded in a neoliberal ideology, and how it would be possible to combine regenerative regional development with responsible value chains; including important elements of policy interventions to facilitate the shift. |
| Keywords: | Regional resilience; sustainability transformation; human agency; global value chains; automation and industry 4.0; innovation; industrial and innovation policy |
| JEL: | O30 R10 R11 R50 R58 |
| Date: | 2022–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2022_011&r= |
| By: | Radek Šauer |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of corporate taxation. The analysis is conducted in a quantitative two-country model. In the first step, the paper describes the long-run effects of corporate taxation. A reduction in the corporate-income tax rate increases GDP, wages, consumption, investment, and business density. The trade balance is at the same time negatively affected. Firms headquartered in a country which lowers its corporate tax become internationally less active and instead focus more on their domestic market. In the second step, the paper presents adjustment dynamics that are induced by a corporate-tax reform. The dynamic response of the economy can substantially differ when comparing shorter and longer time horizons. |
| Keywords: | corporate taxation, macroeconomy, heterogeneous firms, multinationals, international spillovers |
| JEL: | E62 F42 H25 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9942&r= |