|
on International Trade |
| By: | Ariell Reshef; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of labor shares in 1995-2014, while taking into account international trade based on value added concepts. Declines in labor shares accelerate in 2001-2007, concurrently with global value chain (GVC) integration, after which there is no trend for both. We develop a gravity-based instrument for GVC integration and find that the acceleration in the decline in labor shares is caused by increased intensity of forward GVC integration. The integration of China into GVCs has a disproportionally large effect through this mechanism. Declines in labor shares are shouldered mostly by less skilled workers in fabrication functions. Relatively capital abundant countries integrate more into forward GVCs linkages, which is associated with greater upstreamness within GVCs and increases in capital intensity. Forward GVC integration is associated with international vertical integration of both upstream intermediate input production and of offshoring of downstream assembly. |
| Keywords: | labor share, global value chains, upstreamness |
| JEL: | E25 F14 F15 F16 F66 J00 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9835&r= |
| By: | Blanca Jiménez-García (Banco de España); Julio Rodríguez (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study how 103 bilateral Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) shape bilateral trade flows over time. The analysis of quarterly trade flows from 1982 Q4 to 2018 Q4 shows dynamic differences between RTAs and among trading partners. Results show that countries benefit unevenly from bilateral RTAs. The positive global trade trend since the 1990s and the negative effect of the 2008 economic crisis are captured by a factor analysis that allows us to study specifically how trade agreements affect bilateral trade asymmetrically. On average, RTAs lead to a 10% increase in bilateral trade flows above the mean trend, but disparities are found since Partial Scope Agreements (PSAs) tend to boost bilateral trade more than Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) (21% compared to 9%). However, most of the effects of PSAs occur during the first four quarters after the agreements come into force, whereas FTAs have effects over a longer period. The current study uses cluster analysis to classify bilateral trade flows into homogeneous groups according to the dynamic impact that RTAs have on them. This allows the heterogeneity between clusters to be explored. Moreover, the results show a difference relating to the economic crisis starting in 2008: in general, the impact on bilateral trade of agreements in force before 2008 is positive (30%), while it is negative for agreements signed after 2008 (-9%). This indicates that RTAs play a heterogeneous role as a cycle smoothing mechanism. Finally, there is evidence of an anticipation effect: we find that for more than half of the bilateral trade flows studied, the effect of the bilateral RTA is detected before it comes into force. |
| Keywords: | bilateral RTAs, dynamic asymmetries, factor analysis, impulse responses |
| JEL: | F02 F14 F15 C22 C51 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2220&r= |
| By: | Cosimo Beverelli; Martin T. Braml; Lionel Gérard Fontagné; Alexander Keck; Gianluca Orefice |
| Abstract: | Global imports subject to pre-shipment inspections (PSI) – a practice under which imports need to undergo a third party review process before shipment – shrank from 700 bn USD in 2010 to 87 bn in 2018. However, only little is known about the trade impact of such procedures, which on the one hand involve administrative costs, but on the other hand provide information. This paper – the first PSI analysis consistent with a structural gravity framework – shows that PSI requirements reduce bilateral trade and are most harmful for trade in differentiated manufacturing products. In contrast, PSI facilitate trade in food products. Trade in products subject to sanitary and phytosanitary measures even doubles when these measures are combined with PSI. Overall, counterfactual analysis suggests that the removal of PSI requirements between 2010 and 2018 implied a 2.6% increase in total imports across the 32 developing countries covered by our data. |
| Keywords: | pre-shipment inspections, structural gravity, trade facilitation |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F17 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9833&r= |
| By: | Oinonena, Sami; Virén, Matti E. E. |
| Abstract: | This paper tries to find an answer to the question of why has Finnish exports performed so poorly during the last two decades. It also tries to assess the related question of why is the level of openness of the Finnish economy much lower than in neighboring countries and countries with similar size and structural features of the economy. The market share analysis shows that Finnish export performance has suffered from unfavorable structure of markets and commodities in particular during the last ten years. The quality of exports has also deteriorated over time so that the share of raw materials and intermediate goods has grown. This has had unfavorable implications on export prices and the terms of trade. |
| Keywords: | export performance,export market share,gravitation model |
| JEL: | F14 F43 F62 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofecr:52022&r= |
| By: | Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm |
| Abstract: | This paper has investigated the effect of countries' structural economic vulnerability (EVI) on their participation in international trade, using an unbalanced panel dataset of 118 countries over the period from 1996 to 2018, and the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. It has revealed several findings. Higher EVI leads to a lower participation in international trade, and this negative effect is more pronounced in countries that face higher trade costs. This is, in particular, the case for landlocked developing countries and least developed countries. Development aid contributes to dampening the negative effect of EVI on countries' participation in international trade. Moreover, this negative impact may turn out to be positive for high amounts of development aid. The policy implications of this analysis have been discussed. |
| Keywords: | Structural economic vulnerability,Participation in international trade,Development aid,Trade costs |
| JEL: | F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:262004&r= |
| By: | Baeva Marina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The WTO system, in particular the mechanism for resolving trade disputes, has been in crisis for five years now. The main reasons are as follows: growth of protectionism, trade wars, the COVID-19 pandemic, systemic challenges, primarily freezing of the Appellate Body (AB). According to the U.S., AB goes beyond its authority, sometimes making decisions outside of WTO law, posing rights or obligations for member countries that are not provided for by existing WTO agreements, violates the deadlines for appellate review. The U.S. blocked decisions to appoint new AB members. Many WTO member countries agree on the need for reforms. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2022-1200&r= |
| By: | Yifei Cai; Jamel Saadaoui; Yanrui Wu |
| Abstract: | This paper employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral trade. By imposing a recursive identification scheme with different assumptions, the empirical results illustrate that worsening US-China political relations have a negative impact on Australian exports to and imports from China. Under a time-varying structural vector autoregression model, it is found that the deterioration in US-China political relations augments the negative impacts on Australia-China bilateral trade during the Trump’s administration. The empirical findings provide insightful policy suggestions to both Australian and Chinese governments. |
| Keywords: | Structural vector autoregression, Local projection, Impulse response; US-China political relation; Australia-China trade. |
| JEL: | C32 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2022-22&r= |
| By: | Djontu, Bruno Legrand |
| Abstract: | This study aims at evaluating the determinants of trade in agricultural exports products of Cameroon, as well as the level of efficiency and potential of Cameroon with its trading partners. To achieve this goal, a stochastic frontier gravity model is estimated over the period 2000-2017 for a sample of 41 partners. Using the maximum likelihood method, the results show that Cameroon’s GDP, partner population, bilateral exchange rate and sharing of a common colonial history increase exports of agricultural products, unlike preferential trade agreements and Cameroon’s population. Likewise, the hypothesis of the existence of commercial inefficiency is validated. The estimation of the efficiency scores shows that around 76.6% of Cameroon's agricultural export potential remains untapped. These results underscore the importance of developing the agricultural sector and improving Cameroon's trade policies. |
| Keywords: | agricultural exports, gravity model, stochastic frontier, trade efficiency, export potential |
| JEL: | Q17 |
| Date: | 2022–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113959&r= |
| By: | KAO Kuo-Feng; MUKUNOKI Hiroshi |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how countries set import tariffs on a monopoly platform’s product in a two-sided market. Consumers and service providers interact through the platform’s product, wherein service providers’ entries spur product demand and larger demand invokes more entries. Optimal import policies for importing countries are subsidies when network externalities and the number of importing countries are large, while they are tariffs when they are small. There is a case where optimal non-cooperative policies are import tariffs, but optimal cooperative policies are import subsidies. These results suggest that promoting digital trade and cooperative actions in tariff settings is important to advance trade liberalization for the platform’s products. |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:22066&r= |
| By: | Didier Laurent (CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de La Réunion) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact of the regional trade agreements (RTAs) of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) on bilateral trade flows between SIDS and other member countries at the aggregated and disaggregated level over the period 1962–2014. This approach allows us to compare these effects between states in Indian ocean and other SIDS. We focused our estimates on raw materials due to their strong concentration in the trade specialization of most SIDS. We find a heterogeneous effect of these regional trade agreements on intra-zone trade flows for SIDS. These results vary depending on the type of trade agreement (non-reciprocal, reciprocal), the stage of development of trading partners (North-South, South-South), and the products in question. |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de cet article est d'estimer l'impact des accords commerciaux régionaux (ACR), auxquels participent les Petites économies insulaires en développement (PEID), sur les flux commerciaux bilatéraux des PEID avec les autres États membres à la fois au niveau agrégé et désagrégé. Cela nous permettra d'autant plus de comparer ces effets entre les économies de l'océan Indien et les autres PEID. Les estimations ont été menées sur la période 1962-2014 sur les produits primaires du fait de la forte concentration au niveau de la spécialisation commerciale de la plupart des PEID. Les résultats obtenus mettent en évidence une hétérogénéité des effets de ces accords préférentiels sur le commerce intra-zone des PEID en fonction du type d'accords (nonréciproques, réciproques), de la nature des partenaires (Nord-Sud, Sud-Sud) et des produits. |
| Keywords: | Preferential agreements,trade,island economies,Accords préférentiels,commerce,économies insulaires |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03710061&r= |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Anamaria Diana Sova; Robert Sova |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on trade flows in the case of the European countries. First, an ARDL dynamic panel model is estimated using the PMG method to analyse monthly data covering the most recent period (2019M1-2021M12); then, the GMM and PCSE approaches are applied to a much longer span of quarterly data (2000Q1-2021Q4), which also includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009, in order to compare the trade impact of two different crises. The findings based on the monthly data provide clear evidence of the significant negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on both exports and imports in both the short and the long run, and also suggest that digitalization was instrumental in mitigating the impact of the crisis and speeding up the recovery. The quarterly analysis over a longer time period indicates that both the GCF and the Covid-19 pandemic had negative effects on trade but of a different magnitude. The use of digital technology enabling remote work and e-commerce are again some of the factors likely explaining why international trade fell by less and also rebounded much more quickly during the Covid-19 pandemic compared to the GFC. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 pandemic, trade flows, dynamic panel models, pooled mean group (PMG) estimator |
| JEL: | C25 E61 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9848&r= |
| By: | Federico Carril-Caccia (University of Granada); Jordi Paniagua (University of Valencia and Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame); Marta Suárez-Varela (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | There is growing concern about the increase in food insecurity across the world, but little is known of its economic implications. This paper quantifies the effect of food crises on forced international migration (FIM) flows using a structural gravity model. To this end, we use a database that measures the severity, intensity and causes of food crises. The results suggest that even less severe food crises tend to increase FIM flows. More severe food crises tend to skew FIM flows towards developing countries. The results obtained appear to indicate that food crises tighten liquidity constraints on migration and that these constraints worsen as the food crisis intensifies. |
| Keywords: | forced migration, food security, gravity equation |
| JEL: | F22 O15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2227&r= |
| By: | Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2021, the global economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak of 2020. However, the pandemic continued to be a serious problem throughout 2021, especially with the emergence of new strains such as Delta in Q2 2021 and Omicron in Q4 2021. Vaccination has proven effective in mitigating the adverse effects of coronavirus on human health. However, unequal access to vaccines and the higher invasiveness of new strains have left many people still vulnerable to the virus, which fuels the pandemic and puts pressure on the sustainability of the global economic recovery. In addition, its recovery has been held back by persistent disruptions in supply chains and pressure from rising tradable commodity prices. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2022-1201&r= |
| By: | Grant Fleming; Frank Liu; David Merrett; Simon Ville |
| Abstract: | We examine the long run relationship between innovation and economic development in Australia, using 150 years of data on patenting activity, and aggregate and sectoral economic indicators. Our initial results point to several important causal relationships, particularly the effects of patents on real GDP and of private capital formation on patents. We delve deeper at the sector level and find important causal relationships of patents with real foreign direct investment (FDI) since World War Two. Australia’s dependence on FDI for private capital formation served as an important stimulus for knowledge creation in key sectors including agriculture and mining. |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:107&r= |
| By: | Bernabe Lopez-Martin |
| Abstract: | This article provides a theoretical model of firm dynamics that replicates the export elasticity values estimated in the empirical literature, and the heterogeneous export response of firms against exchange rate fluctuations. I analyze alternative versions of the model, which allows for a decomposition of the contributions of the different mechanisms (distribution costs, imported intermediate inputs, gradual growth of foreign demand, market access costs in foreign/domestic currency). I evaluate the intensive and extensive margins of exports, and examine the behavior at the aggregate and firm levels. Distribution costs represent the most important factor, but are not sufficient, to replicate elasticity estimations. I show that this mechanism substantially exceeds the relevance of imported intermediate inputs. Distribution costs allow the model to replicate the heterogeneous response of foreign sales to exchange rate movements by decreasing the demand elasticity of more productive firms. I provide a quantitative test using firm-level panels constructed from model simulations and contrast the results with empirical specifications. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:935&r= |
| By: | Luca Barbaglia; Christophe Croux; Ines Wilms |
| Abstract: | Despite the increasing integration of the global economic system, anti-dumping measures are a common tool used by governments to protect their national economy. In this paper, we propose a methodology to detect cases of anti-dumping circumvention through re-routing trade via a third country. Based on the observed full network of trade flows, we propose a measure to proxy the evasion of an anti-dumping duty for a subset of trade flows directed to the European Union, and look for possible cases of circumvention of an active anti-dumping duty. Using panel regression, we are able correctly classify 86% of the trade flows, on which an investigation of anti-dumping circumvention has been opened by the European authorities. |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2207.05394&r= |
| By: | David Weisbach; Samuel S. Kortum; Michael Wang; Yujia Yao |
| Abstract: | Climate policies vary widely across countries, with some countries imposing stringent emissions policies and others doing very little. When climate policies vary across countries, energy-intensive industries have an incentive to relocate to places with few or no emissions restrictions, an effect known as leakage. Relocated industries would continue to pollute but would be operating in a less desirable location. We consider solutions to the leakage problem in a simple setting where one region of the world imposes a climate policy and the rest of the world is passive. We solve the model analytically and also calibrate and simulate the model. Our model and analysis imply: (1) optimal climate policies tax both the supply of fossil fuels and the demand for fossil fuels; (2) on the demand side, absent administrative costs, optimal policies would tax both the use of fossil fuels in domestic production and the domestic consumption of goods created with fossil fuels, but with the tax rate on production lower due to leakage; (3) taxing only production (on the demand side), however, would be substantially simpler, and almost as effective as taxing both production and consumption, because it would avoid the need for border adjustments on imports of goods; (4) the effectiveness of the latter strategy depends on a low foreign elasticity of energy supply, which means that forming a taxing coalition to ensure a low foreign elasticity of energy supply can act as a substitute for border adjustments on goods |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30244&r= |
| By: | Yvonne Wolfmayr; Michael Pfaffermayr |
| Abstract: | The biggest reform step to date in the liberalisation and deepening of the EU internal market for services was taken with the EU Services Directive. Its implementation intended to provide a clear impetus for the removal of existing obstacles to the free movement of services, the freedom of establishment of services providers and for administrative simplification. The project quantifies the Directive's effects on Austrian and EU services trade and welfare but also highlights untapped potentials due to remaining administrative barriers and existing weaknesses in the implementation and enforcement of the Single Market rules. The estimation relies on a structural gravity model estimated on a disaggregated industry level. |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:ecbook:2022:i:viii-003&r= |
| By: | Kim, Dongin; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, International Development, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:322200&r= |
| By: | Julien Ancel (AgroParisTech); Théo Mandonnet (AgroParisTech); Michel de Lara (CERMICS - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Mathématiques et Calcul Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech) |
| Abstract: | To respect their pledge to fulfill the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, many countries have designed so-called Nationally Determined Contributions. One lever to reduce national greenhouse gases emissions is to change the trade policy of the country, in order to import more from the current and future least carbon-intensive economies. However, future carbon intensities reductions are uncertain, leading to the production of emissions scenarios by several institutes. A fitting trade policy is then classically obtained for each of such scenarios. By contrast with such perfect foresight (anticipative) approach, we propose to take into account all the possible futures simultaneously, in order to determine a "robust-touncertainty" trade policy. Using a two-stage stochastic optimization framework between 2015 and 2030, we study the French case and we outline a method to design a robust trade policy in a highly uncertain and constrained context. This optimal policy is then compared to optimal-by-scenario policies and to current French imports. |
| Keywords: | Optimal trade policy,Stochastic optimization,Import shares,Nationally Determined Contribution,Carbon footprint,France |
| Date: | 2022–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03721999&r= |
| By: | Sugata Marjit; Meghna Dutta; Moushakhi Roy |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces finance or credit in the Dixit-Stiglitz-Krugman (DSK) model of international trade. It identifies mechanisms by which finance can affect the main results of the conventional model. The key results are as follows. Perfect credit market does not affect number of varieties or output per variety, but it affects wage and interest rate, thus affecting income distribution. With a minimum wage and unemployment availability of credit affects number of varieties. With imperfect credit market, wealthier firms face lower cost of credit and produce greater number of varieties and given labour force less output per variety. Thus, availability of finance will determine a specific trade pattern between richer and poorer nations both with unemployment and imperfect credit market , a result in stark contrast with the conventional model with indeterminate pattern of trade. |
| Keywords: | product variety, factor mobility, unemployment, finance, trade |
| JEL: | F16 F20 J31 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9804&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | There are many factors of crisis in the daily life of the citizens of this world. Thus, the four great eternal problems of humanity (pandemics, war, religious intolerance, hunger), which for a time man believed capable, if not of eradicating, at least of controlling, have come back to challenge international chancelleries, philosophers or the whole of suffering humanity.-The famous pandemics such as the plague or smallpox seemed to have been solved when Covid-19 appeared. Of course, the appearance of new pandemics was not excluded, but the modern world, imbued with its technicality, has always thought that it had the logistical, scientific and medical means to find a quick solution to the lethality of this threat.-With nuclear weapons and the opening of most countries to free trade under the control of the World Trade Organization, conflicts between the great powers seemed highly unlikely, given the destructive consequences of nuclear weapons capable of eradicating life on Earth. Moreover, the economic interdependencies that lead to the respect of the "soft market" favor situations of negotiations for a lasting peace, considering the economic stakes of the partners, who have no interest in becoming belligerents.-Philosophical and religious issues seemed to lead to more secularism and less intolerance. Today, the principles of life that bring people together diverge, between a Western world based on republican principles, but also on an inequitable consumer society, the world of the great contesting powers that are not very sensitive to democratic values and are concerned with establishing a less American-centric world that is more open to their own ideologies (China, Russia, India, Middle Eastern states, for example) and finally the countries of the rest of the world (the Third World in perpetuity) still sucked in by economic scarcity and hunger, continuing imbalances of state power, national and international wars and conflicts, and religious issues.-Religious beliefs and divergent notions of the concept of democracy do not lead to a peaceful world, especially because of proselytizing and the will to power expressed by great powers. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03703460&r= |
| By: | Balandina Galina (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The year 2021 saw the accomplishment of reforms within the scope of the Comprehensive Program for Development of the RF Federal Customs Service till 2020 and the Strategy of the Development of the RF Customs Service till 2020. The main transformations are related primarily with the introduction of modern information technologies in customs procedures making it feasible to switch over to automatic registration of customs declarations and automatic (with no involvement of customs officials) release of goods. Vladimir Bulavin, Head of the RF Federal Customs Service declared that in 2021 25% of customs declaration were issued in an automatic mode when importing goods and nearly 43% when exporting. “After carrying out customs reforms, the customs authorities have achieved an optimal operating mode: at present 68%, 80% and 98% of customs declarations are released within an hour, 4 hours and a day, respectively, while only 2% of declarations are sent for checking. From January through November 2021, customs authorities registered in an automatic mode over 4.1 mn declarations and released automatically over 1.34 mn declarations.†2 Notably, an increase in the share of consignments with an automatic release of goods takes place amid a 37% pickup in foreign trade as compared with 2020. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, customs regulation |
| JEL: | F10 F13 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2022-1214&r= |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effect of globalisation on governance in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2000-2019, with particular emphasis on income levels (low income versus middle income), legal origins (English common law versus French civil law), landlockedness (landlocked versus unlandlocked), resource wealth (oil-rich versus oil-poor) and political stability (stable versus unstable). The empirical evidence is based on Fixed Effects in order to control for the unobserved heterogeneity. Political, economic, social, and general globalisation variables are used, while three bundled governance indicators are also employed to assess five main hypotheses. From baseline findings, while all globalization dynamics negatively affect political governance, only political and social globalisation have a negative incidence on economic governance. Social and general globalisation dynamics positively affect institutional governance. The hypotheses that higher income, English common law, unlandlocked, oil poor, and politically-stable countries are associated with higher levels of globalisation-driven governance, are valid, invalid, and partially valid contingent on the globalisation and governance dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Governance; Globalization; Panel; Fixed Effects |
| JEL: | F30 O10 O55 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:22/050&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | There are mainly four eternal problems of mankind (pandemics, war, religious intolerance, hunger), which man once thought he could control, that are now coming back to the fore. The appearance of new pandemics was not excluded, but confidence in modern logistical, scientific and medical progress was sufficiently high to create an irresponsible sense of security. With nuclear weapons and the opening of most countries to free trade, conflict between the great powers seemed highly unlikely, given the destructive consequences of nuclear weapons and the common interest in economic interdependencies. But economics is not the only subject of wars. Religious beliefs and differing notions of the concept of democracy do not lead to a peaceful world, not least because of the proselytizing and will to power expressed by some states. Philosophical and religious issues seem to lead to more secularism and less tolerance. Finally, the famous trickledown theory does not work and hunger is still present in many regions of the Earth and this phenomenon is increased in times of war and conflicts within or outside these territories. |
| Abstract: | Il y a principalement quatre problèmes éternels de l'humanité (les pandémies, la guerre, l'intolérance religieuse, la faim), que l'homme a cru un temps capable de contrôler, qui reviennent aujourd'hui sur le devant de la scène. L'apparition de nouvelles pandémies n'était pas exclue, mais la confiance dans les progrès logistiques, scientifiques et médicaux modernes était suffisamment élevée pour créer un sentiment de sécurité irresponsable. Avec les armes nucléaires et l'ouverture de la plupart des pays au libre-échange, les conflits entre les grandes puissances semblaient hautement improbables, compte tenu des conséquences destructrices des armes nucléaires et de l'intérêt commun aux interdépendances économiques. Mais l'économie n'est pas le seul sujet des guerres. Les croyances religieuses et les notions divergentes du concept de démocratie ne conduisent pas à un monde pacifique, notamment en raison du prosélytisme et de la volonté de puissance exprimés par certains États. Les questions philosophiques et religieuses semblent conduire à plus de laïcité et moins de tolérance. Enfin, la fameuse théorie du ruissellement ne fonctionne pas et la faim s'invite encore de nos jours dans de nombreuses régions de la Terre et ce phénomène est accru en temps de guerre et de conflits à l'intérieur ou à l'extérieur de ces territoires. |
| Keywords: | Pandemic,war,peace,misery,intolerance,political economy,economic war,Pandémie,guerre,paix,misère,intolérance,économie politique,guerre économique |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03702546&r= |
| By: | Mkrtchian Nikita (RANEPA); Florinskaya Yulia (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | After a sharp fall in 2020, Russia’s net migration in 2021 was the highest in recent years. According to the estimates based on the Rosstat’s operative information on the population, which decreased by 692,900 people in 2021, and on the natural population decline (in 2021 — 1,042.7 thousand people), the migration gain was 349,800 people. At the same time, according to the last published data for January-November 2021 the positive migration balance for 11 months already made up 371,400 people, and there is no reason to believe that there was a migration loss in December. Monthly dynamic of the index allows us to assume that the net migration will exceed 400,000 people. The reason for the discrepancy in these data is not clear. But no matter how Rosstat estimates the final results of migration gain for the year, it is obvious that its magnitude was extremely high in 2021. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, migration, internal migration, temporary migration, long-term migration |
| JEL: | J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2022-1219&r= |
| By: | Ignatov Aleksandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Dorokhina K. (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Larionova Marina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Popova Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sakharov Andrey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Shelepov Andrey (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2021, the US, the European Union and the UK consolidated their efforts to bolster their influence in international economic institutions. In the context of the increased importance of digitalization and the climate change agenda, they sought to secure the leadership in establishing new rules of global climate change management and in the collective regulatory framework for digital economy. Amidst this growing competition and geopolitical tensions, the ongoing pandemic and uneven economic recovery, the efficacy of multilateral cooperation has become an important factor in Russia’s pursuit of its national interest, foreign policy priorities and development goals. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, international organizations, international institutional arrangements |
| JEL: | F5 F53 F55 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2022-1217&r= |