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on International Trade |
| By: | Catherine Mathieu (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | The results of the June 2016 referendum in favour of the UK leaving the EU opened a period of huge economic and political uncertainty in the UK, and in the EU27. A large number of official and academic analyses have been published that address the economic impact of different modalities of Brexit. Section 1 analyses possible models for the future UK-EU relationship, from remaining in the single market and in the customs union, to a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) or world trade organization (WTO) rules. Section 1 also discusses the future of UK trade regulations (tariff and non-tariff barriers, trade agreements) and the various channels through which Brexit could have an impact on the UK economy (trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), migration, productivity, fiscal policy). The UK must make a trade-off between ensuring access to the EU market and increasing its regulatory autonomy. Section 2 surveys studies released on the impacts of Brexit, over short-and long-term horizons, under different scenarios, from a soft Brexit to a hard Brexit and a no deal scenario. These studies provide very different results depending on the methods they use and the assumptions they adopt on the future relationship between the UK and the EU27, mainly on how they view the effects of trade openness and regulations on productivity, in level as in growth rate. Studies usinggravity models and computable general equilibrium models generally find negative but small effects on UK GDP. Some studies increase these effects by adding the negative impact of a less open UK economy on labour productivity growth, even if Brexiteers want to open the UK to non-EU economies. Others believe that a liberalisation shock could boost output growth, but the UK is already a very liberal economy. The impact of Brexit on the GDP of the EU27 countries is on average 4 to 5 times smaller than on UK GDP, although some countries (Ireland in particular) are more affected. In the shorter term, uncertainty about Brexit has a negative effecton investment and exports, which is partly offset by lower interest rates and exchange rates. |
| Keywords: | Brexit,UK economy,EU membership,Trade agreements |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03403036&r= |
| By: | Ding Ding; Ana Lariau; Fabio Di Vittorio; Yue Zhou |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade China’s investment in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has increased substantially in volume and become more diversified from natural resources to other industries. Using cross-border mergers and acquisitions data, we demonstrate that since mid-2010s China’s overseas investment has tilted toward sectors where China has a comparative advantage in the global markets, a trend similar to that of other major foreign direct investment (FDI) source countries. Moreover, China’s rising overseas investment can be linked to the rebalancing of Chinese economy, and LAC stands to benefit from its complementarity vis-à-vis China in sectors where the rising Chinese overseas investment can be met with LAC’s own investment gaps. The COVID-19 pandemic could have a long-lasting impact on global value chains and FDI flows, which poses both challenges and opportunities to LAC in attracting FDI, including from China, to support the region’s long-run economic development. |
| Keywords: | FDI flow; overseas investment; ding ding; China-LAC investment linkage; investment behavior; Foreign direct investment; Comparative advantage; Electricity; Real effective exchange rates; Exports; Caribbean; Global; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2021–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/160&r= |
| By: | Michael Gasiorek (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom); Nicolò Tamberi (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) entered into force in January 2021. At the same time, the collection method for UK-EU trade statistics changed, moving from Intrastat to customs declarations. As a result, the gap between UK reported exports to the EU and their mirror flows reported by the EU widened substantially. Imports are not affected as the UK will not change theh collection method before 2022. This considerable difference in UK exports casts doubts on which dataset should be used to analyse the effects of the TCA on UK-EU trade, whether UK or EU reported data. After reviewing the methodological changes, we believe that the change from country of consignment to country of origin in EU imports declarations represents the main break in the series. We advise analysts and researchers to use HMRC reported exports flows instead of their EU reported mirror flows. Comparison of data by country of origin and consignment and comparisons of trade flows with freight traffic data confirm our beliefs. |
| JEL: | F14 Y10 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0921&r= |
| By: | Berens, Stefan; Chochua, Lasha; Willmann, Gerald |
| Abstract: | We study the stability of trade policy arrangements under two regulatory scenarios, with/without PTAs. Unlike previous papers, we consider an extensive set of trade policy constellations and allow for unlimited farsightedness of negotiating parties. We find global free trade (GFT) to be uniquely stable under symmetry, with/without PTAs. When two countries are smaller(larger) than the third, availability of PTAs decreases (increases) the stability of GFT. Away from symmetry, GFT is not attainable, and without PTAs the non-cooperative MFN regime is the only stable outcome. The effect of (dis-)allowing PTAs thus depends on the size asymmetry of countries. |
| Keywords: | Trade Policy Arrangements,Stability,Unlimited Farsightedness |
| JEL: | F13 F55 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2193&r= |
| By: | Mr. Gonzalo Salinas |
| Abstract: | Largely because of its vast copper reserves, Chile’s exports are highly concentrated on this low complexity product and this is often cited as a major drawback of its economic policy framework. However, its exogenous copper abundance conceals the country’s success in developing non-mineral and complex exports. This achievement is remarkable considering its remoteness from the large international economic centers, which limits its integration to global value chains. As suggested in this paper, this accomplishment reflects Chile’s strength in policy areas that foster non-mineral exports (including complex exports), making the country a role model in export diversification and complexity policies among emerging market countries. |
| Date: | 2021–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/148&r= |
| By: | Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics); Sardoschau, Sulin (Humboldt University Berlin); Silve, Arthur (Université Laval) |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel perspective on migration and cultural change by asking both theoretically and empirically – and from a global viewpoint – whether migration is a source of cultural convergence or divergence between home and host countries. Our theoretical model derives distinctive testable predictions as to the sign and direction ofconvergence for various compositional and cultural diffusion mechanisms. We use the World Value Survey for 1981-2014 to build time-varying measures of cultural similarity for a large number of country pairs and exploit within country-pair variation over time. Our results support migration-based cultural convergence, with cultural remittances as its main driver. In other words and in contrast to the populist narrative, we find that while immigrants do act as vectors of cultural diffusion, this is mostly to export the host country culture back home. |
| Keywords: | migration, cultural change, globalization |
| JEL: | F22 O15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14772&r= |
| By: | Nchofoung, Tii; Asongu, Simplice |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to evaluate: (i) the effects of infrastructures on CO2 emission and (ii) how trade openness and governance contribute to mitigating these effects. The results from the system GMM methodology for 36 African countries between the 2003-2019 period show that infrastructural development exacerbates CO2 emission in Africa. This result is robust across different types of infrastructural development indexes. When the indirect effect regressions are carried out by interacting governance and trade openness with the different infrastructural development variables, the following results are obtained. Firstly, infrastructural development interacts with governance producing a positive net effect, up to a governance threshold estimate of 0.532 when the positive net effect is nullified. Secondly, infrastructures interact with trade openness producing a negative net effect up to a trade openness threshold of 78.066914 (% of GDP) when the negative net effect is nullified. Positive and negative synergy effects are also apparent. Practical policy implications are discussed based on the results obtained. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructures, CO2, trade openness, governance, Africa, System GMM |
| JEL: | C23 N67 N77 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110755&r= |
| By: | Maria Esther Oswald-Egg (ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Michael Siegenthaler (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Does better access to skilled workers reduce firms’ willingness to provide general skills training to unskilled workers? We analyze how the gradual opening of the Swiss labor market to workers from the European Union affected the number of apprenticeship positions that firms provide. We exploit that the availability of skilled workers increased more in firms close to the border because they gained unrestricted access to cross-border workers from neighboring countries. Our Difference-in-Differences estimates suggest that firm-provided training and access to skilled workers are not necessarily substitutes: open- ing the borders did not have a statistically significant effect on apprenticeship provision. We show theoretically and empirically that the small impact was the consequence of two opposing effects: the greater availability of skilled workers reduced firms’ incentive to train because the cost of hiring external labor fell. Positive impacts on firm growth worked in the opposite direction. |
| Keywords: | labor demand, skilled immigration, firm-provided training, apprenticeships, vocational education and training, free movement of workers, cross-border workers, recruitment, immigration policy, labor mobility, hiring costs |
| JEL: | J24 J63 M53 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:21-495&r= |
| By: | Filiz Künüroğlu (Izmir Katip Çelebi University); Ali Sina Önder (University of Portsmouth) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the association between cultural contact and international migration decision drawing on the inter-group contact hypothesis. Using data on Turkish migrant stock in 22 countries and immigration from these countries to Turkey between 2000 and 2015, we find strong association between the size of the Turkish community and migration flow of host country nationals to Turkey. Our results are robust to country-specific and year-specific effects as well as to exclusion of different channels of cultural contact. Our research brings a new perspective to the importance of networks in migration destination as most research focuses on the presence of in-group national community in the target country. Our findings contribute to the improvement of extant theories of international migration providing insight in the role of cultural contact with the out-group in the choice of migration destination. |
| Keywords: | International migration; network migration, contact hypothesis |
| Date: | 2021–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2021-08&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The ASEAN summit of October 2021 showed the increased geopolitical importance of the Indo-Pacific realm. Today ASEAN is the most successful regional organization in Asia and the second largest worldwide behind the EU. The establishment of the New Asian-African Strategic Partnership (NAASP) more than 15 years before (2005) aimed to revive the Bandung spirit of the non-aligned movement of 1955. This time with a stronger focus on economic ties. In 2013 these countries counted around 620 million inhabitants or 8.8% of the world population. They wanted to fight colonialism and neocolonialism by promoting Afro-Asiatic economic and cultural cooperation. Almost all member countries gained sovereignty and political independence by the 1960s and 1970s, except for Palestine. However, the aftermath of the Bandung conference also promoted negative developments, including the polarization of Asian countries, the strengthening of political authoritarianism, and regional interventions. In addition, most countries continued to grapple with economic and political challenges, including poverty, debt burdens, backwardness, ignorance, disease, and environmental degradation. Their access to the markets of the industrialized countries also remained limited. At the global level, the NAASP received little attention so far. Despite the longstanding rhetoric of Asia-Africa solidarity, Asia and Africa still lack formal institutional and trade links. Although interregional trade increased, Africa remained a small part of ASEAN with only around 2% of its total market. The most important trading countries of ASEAN with Africa were Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore, while South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt were the largest African import markets. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN, NAASP, Asia, Africa, economic growth, international trade, free trade area, customs union, Non-Aligned Movement, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand, Singapore, Nigeria, Egypt |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F36 F54 N15 N17 O17 O19 O53 O55 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110709&r= |
| By: | Chand, Satish (University of New South Wales); Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development); Dempster, Helen (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The demand for skills exceeds supply, both within the Pacific Islands and the high-income countries of the Pacific Rim. Enhancing skilled migration therefore has the potential to generate large economic gains. The Global Skill Partnership is a migration model that can support such mutually beneficial mobility by moving training into the country of origin. In this paper, we outline its regional application to the Pacific. To assess the potential economic gains from such a Pacific Skills Partnership, we present new data on earnings and the cost of training in the Pacific Islands for three qualifications— accountants, computer science graduates, and chefs—and explore how such training could be financed through loan schemes. Graduates could be provided with internationally accredited qualifications and a new Pacific Skills Visa, facilitating their access to work opportunities abroad, particularly in the regions' high-income countries. This Pacific Skills Partnership could bring large economic benefits to countries of origin, destination, and the migrants themselves. |
| Keywords: | immigration, labor, low-skill, visa, mobility, Pacific Islands, Papua New Guinea, seasonal, temporary |
| JEL: | F22 J11 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp183&r= |
| By: | Nchofoung, Tii; Asongu, Simplice |
| Abstract: | The objectives of this paper are to investigate the effect of ICT on sustainable development and the mechanisms through which the effect is modulated. The methodology involves the: (i) Fixed Effects estimator to control for individual heterogeneity, (ii) Driscoll and Kraay estimator to control for cross-section dependence between panels, (iii) the Mean Group estimator to take into account the averages between panel groups, (iv) the system GMM to correct for unobserved heterogeneity and simultaneity bias and (v) the instrumental variable Fixed Effects Tobit to take in to account the limited range in our dependent variable. The results show that ICT has a positive and significant effect on sustainable development. Whereas overall net effects are positive, the findings are contingent on the choice of the ICT measurement, the geographical location of the economy and the income group category. The study recommends policy makers to take into account ICT and the advantages it offers in the elaboration of measures for the sustainable development agenda. |
| Keywords: | ICT; Sustainable development; panel data; trade openness; foreign direct investments |
| JEL: | C52 O38 O40 O55 P37 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110754&r= |
| By: | Hea-Jung Hyun (College of International Studies, Kyung Hee University, Korea); Jung Hur (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Korea) |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of export credit insurance (ECI) in Korea during two periods of financial crisis by focusing on insured exporting firms' response on the scope of exported products and destination countries. Using unique Korean firm-level data over 1995–2010, our empirical analyses show that during financial crises (e.g., the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis), multiproduct firms reduced the scope of their export products and the number of destination countries. However, firms with above-median levels of ECI reduced the scope of product and country significantly less than firms with below-median ECI. Core products were less likely to be dropped during the two crisis periods. After the 2008 global financial crisis, countries with high political risk and a low level of financial development were less likely to be dropped from the export market portfolios of firms with high ECI. These findings may imply that larger ECI may be related to higher risk-taking behavior of exporters under asymmetric information. |
| Keywords: | Product Scope, Country Diversification, Export Credit Insurance, Global Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | F13 F34 D22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgo:wpaper:2106&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ : ASEAN – African relations. Towards a new partnership ? ----- The ASEAN summit of October 2021 showed the increased geopolitical importance of the Indo-Pacific realm. Today ASEAN is the most successful regional organization in Asia and the second largest worldwide behind the EU. The establishment of the New Asian-African Strategic Partnership (NAASP) more than 15 years before (2005) aimed to revive the Bandung spirit of the non-aligned movement of 1955. This time with a stronger focus on economic ties. In 2013 these countries counted around 620 million inhabitants or 8.8% of the world population. They wanted to fight colonialism and neocolonialism by promoting Afro-Asiatic economic and cultural cooperation. Almost all member countries gained sovereignty and political independence by the 1960s and 1970s, except for Palestine. However, the aftermath of the Bandung conference also promoted negative developments, including the polarization of Asian countries, the strengthening of political authoritarianism, and regional interventions. In addition, most countries continued to grapple with economic and political challenges, including poverty, debt burdens, backwardness, ignorance, disease, and environmental degradation. Their access to the markets of the industrialized countries also remained limited. At the global level, the NAASP received little attention so far. Despite the longstanding rhetoric of Asia-Africa solidarity, Asia and Africa still lack formal institutional and trade links. Although interregional trade increased, Africa remained a small part of ASEAN with only around 2% of its total market. The most important trading countries of ASEAN with Africa were Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore, while South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt were the largest African import markets. RÉSUMÉ : : Le sommet de l'ASEAN d'octobre 2021 a montré l'importance géopolitique accrue de la region indo-pacifique. Aujourd'hui, l'ANASE est l'organisation régionale la plus performante d'Asie et la deuxième au monde derrière l'UE. La création du Nouveau partenariat stratégique Asie-Afrique (NAASP) plus de 15 ans auparavant (2005) visait à raviver l'esprit de Bandung du mouvement des non-alignés de 1955. Cette fois en mettant davantage l'accent sur les liens économiques. En 2013, ces pays comptaient environ 620 millions d'habitants soit 8,8% de la population mondiale. Ils voulaient combattre le colonialisme et le néocolonialisme en promouvant la coopération économique et culturelle afro-asiatique. Presque tous les pays membres ont acquis leur souveraineté et leur indépendance politique dans les années 1960 et 1970, à l'exception de la Palestine. Cependant, les conséquences de la conférence de Bandung ont également favorisé des développements négatifs, notamment la polarisation des pays asiatiques, le renforcement de l'autoritarisme politique et les interventions régionales. En outre, la plupart des pays ont continué à faire face à des défis économiques et politiques, notamment la pauvreté, le fardeau de la dette, le retard, l'ignorance, la maladie et la dégradation de l'environnement. Leur accès aux marchés des pays industrialisés restait également limité. Au niveau mondial, le NAASP a reçu peu d'attention jusqu'à présent. Malgré la rhétorique de longue date de la solidarité Asie-Afrique, l'Asie et l'Afrique manquent encore de liens institutionnels et commerciaux formels. Bien que le commerce interrégional ait augmenté, l'Afrique est restée une petite partie de l'ASEAN avec seulement environ 2% de son marché total. Les principaux pays commerçants de l'ASEAN avec l'Afrique étaient la Thaïlande, l'Indonésie et Singapour, tandis que l'Afrique du Sud, le Nigéria et l'Égypte étaient les plus grands marchés d'importation africains. |
| Keywords: | ANASE, ASEAN, NAASP, Asie du Sud-Est, Afrique, croissance économique, commerce international, zone de libre échange, union douanière, mouvement des non-alignés, Indonésie, Afrique du Sud, Thaïlande, Singapour, Nigeria, Égypte |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F36 F54 N15 N17 O17 O19 O53 O55 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110710&r= |
| By: | Pitukhina, Maria; Pitukhin, Eugene; Radikov, Ivan; Tolstoguzov, Oleg; Kulakova, Lyubov |
| Abstract: | The article deals with foreign labor migration flows control as well as migration monitoring which are important for the Russian Federation regions’ economy development. A new migration monitoring toolkit is proposed by the authors - Multicultural Barometer. It allows to quantify migration indicators in a region from 4 various angles: labor market; national identity; migrants’ adaptation; migrants’ integration. The research data is coming from open sources (Federal Migration Service of the Republic of Karelia, Ministry of Labor and Employment of the Republic of Karelia, data obtained from Centers for Interethnic Cooperation in Karelian municipalities); both migrants’ pilot survey and host community survey organized in 18 municipalities of the Republic of Karelia. The study conducted in Karelia seems to be important in a context of its geographical location (on a border with Finland) highlighting both successful practices and developing new tools for migration monitoring aimed at scientifically based solutions for migration control. Multicultural barometer as a tool was recommended by the Federal Agency on Ethnic Issues of Russia (FADN) and Strategic Initiatives Agency in 2017 as best regional practice for further implementation all over the Russian Federation. |
| Keywords: | foreign labour migration; migration flows control; Multicultural barometer; migrants’ integration; migrants’ adaptation |
| JEL: | J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2020–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110318&r= |
| By: | Paulo Bastos (World Bank); Natália P. Monteiro (Department of Economics/NIPE, University of Minho); Odd Rune Straume (Department of Economics/NIPE, University of Minho and Department of Economics, University of Bergen) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of unexpected revenue shocks on worker compensation. We propose a new methodology to identify the unexpected component of demand shocks at the firm-level, which uses gaps between observed and recently forecasted GDP growth in export destinations (weighted by the initial share of destinations in firms' total sales). Using employer-employee panel data, we find that unexpected demand shocks are partly transmitted to workers in the form of higher average wages, with most of the rises occurring close to the top of the within-firm wage distribution. We find little evidence of adjustments in the skill composition of the workforce. The unequal average distribution of rents is mainly driven by wage effects in firms managed by high-skilled managers, and by changes in overtime and other pay. This suggests that different types of managers implement different pay systems in the firm. |
| Keywords: | Unexpected revenue shocks, firm performance, exports, rent sharing, managers. |
| JEL: | F16 F66 J6 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:13/2021&r= |
| By: | Agapova, Anna; Budarina, N; Shafiev, R; Tataeva, I.; Kuskov, A. |
| Abstract: | In this article, based on the analysis of the macroeconomic situation of the North African countries, their role in the system of world economic relations is determined. It is proved that despite a certain similarity of the economic model of development of the countries of North Africa, based on the use of raw materials, the impact of external shocks causes different reactions and consequences that are incomparable in scale. It has been determined that the political and economic instability of the North African countries is reflected, among other things, in the ratings of socio-economic development published by international organizations and leading expert and analytical centers. It was revealed that the progress that was achieved by the countries of the region in previous years is largely leveled by factors of a political and religious nature, as well as a strong dependence on world markets for raw materials, which in modern conditions adds certain difficulties to these countries in the world economy. |
| Keywords: | North African countries, economic development, unemployment rate, export and import of goods, global competitiveness index, globalization index, doing business index, economic freedom index, global innovation index. |
| JEL: | O10 |
| Date: | 2021–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110486&r= |
| By: | Aleksandra Parteka (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland); Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland); Dagmara Nikulin (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a sample of over 9.5 million workers from 22 European countries to study the intertwined effects of digital technology and cross-border production links on workers' wellbeing. We compare the social effects of technological change exhibited by three types of innovation: computerisation (software), automation (robots) and artificial intelligence (AI). To fully quantify work-related wellbeing, we propose a new methodology that corrects the information on remuneration by reference to such non-monetary factors as the work environment (physical and social), career development prospects, or work intensity. We show that workers' wellbeing depends on the type of technological exposure. Employees in occupations with high software or robots content face worse working conditions than those exposed to AI. The impact of digitalisation on working conditions depends on participation in global production. To demonstrate this, we estimate a set of augmented models for determination of working conditions, interacting technological factors with Global Value Chain participation. GVC intensification is accompanied by deteriorating working conditions - but only in occupations exposed to robots or software, not in AI-intensive jobs. In other words, we find that AI technologies differ from previous waves of technological progress - also in their impact on workers' wellbeing within global production structures. |
| Keywords: | digital technologies, working conditions, GVC, Global Value Chains, artificial intelligence, AI |
| JEL: | F1 F6 J8 O3 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdk:wpaper:66&r= |
| By: | Gaia Narciso (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Battista Severgnini (Copenhagen Business School); Gayane Vardanyan (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | What is the long-run impact of large negative historical events on the individual decision to migrate? We investigate this research question by looking at the effect of the Great Irish Famine (1845-1850) on the long-run individual decision to migrate to the US during the Age of the Mass Migration. We construct a unique dataset based on two early 20th century Irish Censuses and the Ellis Island Administrative Records. This allows us to test whether the Great Irish Famine, one of the most lethal episodes of mass starvation in history, had a long-run impact on individuals’ migration decisions. Controlling for individual and geographical characteristics, we find that the Irish Famine was a significant long-run driver of individuals’ migration choices. |
| Keywords: | mass migration, negative shock, long-run impact, Great Famine. |
| JEL: | F22 N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0220&r= |
| By: | Joana Andrade Vicente |
| Abstract: | In this paper we theoretically analyse the European Union’s ongoing political impasse regarding the choice of a single method to allocate multinational enterprises’ profits across countries and we find that this strategic situation resembles a coordination game with distributional consequences. The two Nash equilibria involve no efficiency trade-off (only a movement along the Pareto frontier), but the conflictual distribution of welfare gains and the presence of heterogeneous preferences have been preventing the implementation of a new long-term comprehensive tax policy reform. A unitary taxation approach with formulary apportionment in the European Union is better suited to tackle artificial profit shifting via transfer pricing and would mean an evolutionary change without disrupting the current international tax policy environment. It would restore faith in fairness in the European tax system and allow for further coordination of the transfer pricing policies of the two main international political forces – the United States and the European Union. |
| Keywords: | base erosion and profit shifting; Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base; coordination games; European Union; transfer pricing. |
| JEL: | C7 F23 H25 H26 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02062021&r= |
| By: | Ulrik R. Beck (Danish Research institute for Economic Analysis and Modelling (DREAM)); Peter K. Kruse-Andersen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Louis B. Stewart (The Secretariat of the Danish Council on Climate Change) |
| Abstract: | A substantial literature investigates carbon leakage effects for large countries and climate coalitions. However, little is known about leakage effects for a small open economy within a climate coalition. To fill this gap in the literature, we incorporate international climate policies relevant for a small open EU economy into the general equilibrium model GTAP-E. We focus our analysis on Denmark, but we show that our framework can be applied to any EU economy. We find substantial leakage associated with an economy-wide CO2e tax. This result is strongly affected by EU climate policies. We also present sector-specific leakage rates and find large sectoral differences. |
| Keywords: | Carbon leakage, Trade and the environment, Climate policy, Computable general equilibrium |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuiedp:2108&r= |
| By: | Tosapol Apaitan; Pym Manopimoke; Nuwat Nookhwun; Jettawat Pattararangrong |
| Abstract: | We use transaction-level customs data and show that there is significant heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import prices at the Thai border. Our findings uncover significant variations in ERPT across time as well as across disaggregated sectors. By studying several structural determinants of ERPT, we find that (i) prices of homogenous goods are more sensitive to exchange rate changes compared to differentiated goods; (ii) firms with a higher degree of market power face lower ERPT; and (iii) ERPT crucially hinges upon the currency of invoice in the trade transaction. For goods invoiced in a foreign currency, the effect of ERPT is significantly higher than those priced in Thai baht. We also find that for the large majority of Thai imports that are invoiced in the US dollar under the dominant currency pricing (DCP) paradigm, price responses to the US dollar are much higher than those associated with the bilateral exchange rate vis-Ã -vis the exporters' currency, but only in the short run. In the medium run, both exchange rates become equally relevant. Finally, by investigating state-dependent properties of ERPT, we find that while Thai import prices are equally sensitive to small versus large exchange rate changes, the degree of pass-through is stronger during episodes of depreciations rather than appreciations, particularly for goods that practice DCP. |
| Keywords: | Invoice Currency; Exchange Rate Pass-through; Directional Asymmetry; Differentiated Products; Firm Market Power; Local Currency Pricing; Producer Currency Pricing; Dominant Currency Pricing |
| JEL: | E31 F14 F31 L11 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:167&r= |
| By: | Maria Chiara Cavalleri; Nhung Luu; Orsetta Causa |
| Abstract: | Inter-regional migration – the movements of the population from one region to another within the same country – can be an important mechanism of spatial economic adjustment, affecting regional demographic and growth patterns. This paper examines the economic and housing-related factors that affect the decision of people to migrate to another region within the same country, drawing empirical evidence from country-specific gravity models of inter-regional migration for 14 OECD countries. The results suggest that inter-regional migrants move in search of higher income and better employment opportunities, but are discouraged by high housing costs. In particular, house prices are found to be an important barrier to migration, especially in countries having experienced strong increases in the level and cross-regional dispersion of house prices. There is however large heterogeneity across countries in terms of what factors matter the most and in terms of the magnitude of the migration response. |
| Keywords: | house prices, housing, inter-regional migration, internal migration, local labour markets, regional disparities, regional mobility |
| JEL: | R12 R23 R31 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1691-en&r= |
| By: | Oranuch Wongpiyabovorn; Alejandro Plastina (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University); John M. Crespi (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University) |
| Abstract: | This article examines voluntary agricultural carbon programs in the United States, the policy of international agreements to prevent further global warming, and reviews literature related to that policy and its impact on U.S. carbon programs. We discuss international, national, and regional carbon pricing mechanisms that provide the market signals to consumers and suppliers of carbon credits in detail in order to compare and contrast different programs that impact agricultural carbon markets. Economic descriptions of the programs are derived. This article is useful for those who wish to know how U.S. policy currently influences agricultural carbon markets as well as how proposals may need to be structured in order to avoid potential market obstacles. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:21-wp627&r= |
| By: | P. Arca; G. Atzeni; L. Deidda |
| Abstract: | We study the role of trade credit in reducing the information asymmetries between firms and banks. According to the Biais and Gollier's (1997) model trade credit is a complement to bank credit as it is used to convey information to the bank about firm quality, thereby alleviating bank credit rationing. By employing a switching regression approach and taking into account the endogeneity arising from the simultaneous decisions of the bank to extend credit and the firm to use trade credit, we find that (i) the firm decision to use trade credit is a self-selection mechanism; (ii) any firm that chooses to use trade credit would benefit from a reduction in the cost of credit, with this reduction greater for firms that actually use trade credit; (iii) firms that use trade credit have a higher probability of obtaining financing. Thus, using a methodology that allows us to account for the role of private information in the firm- bank relationship, our results provide support to the signalling role of trade credit. |
| Keywords: | Trade credit;asymmetric information;Signalling;Bank Credit;Endogenous Switching Regression |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202106&r= |
| By: | Frédéric Gonzales; Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås; Michel Lioussis |
| Abstract: | Making trade work for all and harnessing popular support for openness to trade depends on consumers benefitting from lower prices and broader product variety. The present study reveals that those benefits depend on competition in services markets, in particular in telecommunication. These findings result from employing an industrial organisation framework to estimate the transmission of prices from the world market to consumers of certain services in local markets (distribution, transport, and financial services). The OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (OECD STRI) is used to explore the relationship between the pass-through rate of input prices to consumer prices and policy measures that capture the openness and strength of competition in services markets. The OECD STRI in telecommunications is found to be associated with a more complete and faster pass-through of prices in all markets studied. The results also illustrate the crucial role played by the internet in allowing for price comparisons that generate competitive pressure on distributors. |
| Keywords: | Cointegration, Pass-through rates, Price signals, Services trade restrictions |
| JEL: | C1 D23 D41 L11 |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:258-en&r= |
| By: | Serratos-Sotelo, Luis (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of being exposed to forced migration during childhood (ages 0-5) on educational achievement at age 15 (grade 9). Using register data from the Swedish Interdisciplinary Panel, I identify children who migrated to Sweden as a consequence of the rising conflict during the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, and follow them until age 15, when they received their grades at the end of the 9 years of compulsory education in Sweden. The results show that those who experienced forced migration performed worse in school, as measured by Math and Swedish grades and Merit Rating scores, with forced migrants achieving grades that were on average 5 (Merit Rating), 7 (Swedish), and 22 (Math) percentage points of a standard deviation lower than those of native Swedes. Forced migrants outperformed Swedes only in English, obtaining grades that were on average 12 percentage points of a standard deviation higher than did their native-born counterparts. |
| Keywords: | forced migration; refugees; education; early-life; Sweden |
| JEL: | I24 J13 J15 N34 |
| Date: | 2021–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0228&r= |