|
on International Trade |
| By: | Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm; Iyer, Harish |
| Abstract: | Development aid and non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs) are two major tools available to wealthier nations to assist developing countries in their development efforts. The present paper investigates the effect of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows (that are key for the integration of developing countries into the global trading system) and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, as well as their interplay on the utilization of NRTPs offered by the Quadrilaterals (i.e., QUAD countries). Two major blocks of NRTPs provided by the QUAD countries have been considered, namely the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programs and other NRTPs. The analysis has covered 114 beneficiary countries of these NRTPs (of which 38 Least developed countries - LDCs) and the period 2002-2018. Several findings have emerged from the analysis. Over the full sample, total AfT flows contribute to enhancing the utilization rate of both GSP programs and other NRTPs. FDI inflows influence positively the utilization rate of both GSP programs and other NRTPs, with the effect on the former being higher than the effect on the latter. For LDCs, total AfT flows are associated with a better utilization of GSP programs at the expense of other NRTPs, while for NonLDCs, total AfT flows generate a better utilization of GSP programs compared to other NRTPs. In the meantime, higher FDI inflows improve the utilization of the two types of NRTPs, although they exert a higher positive effect on the utilization of GSP programs than on that of other NRTPs. In NonLDCs, higher FDI inflows contribute to improving the utilization of GSP programs, but lead to a lower degree of usage of other NRTPs. Total AfT flows and FDI inflows are strongly complementary in affecting positively the utilization of both types of NRTPs, and the degree of this complementarity is higher on the utilization of other NRTPs than on the utilization of GSP programs. Finally, beneficiary countries' level of export product diversification matters for the effect of both AfT flows and FDI inflows on the utilization of NRTPs. The conclusion section discusses the implications of these findings. |
| Keywords: | Aid for Trade,Foreign Direct Investment Inflows,Non-reciprocal trade preferences utilization,QUAD countries,Developing Countries |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:238211&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The global revival of economic nationalism and protectionism poses a serious threat to the orientation of international foreign trade policy towards the principles of the WTO market economy. Economists agree that Brexit will significantly harm the UK economy in the medium to long term. In addition, its political and economic effects will also damage the United States and transatlantic relations. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, meanwhile, continues to assert that leaving the EU will allow Britain to "regain control". In addition, the socio-economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US, UK, the EU and transatlantic relations are devastating. It has far-reaching political, social and economic consequences that go far beyond public health. All the partners need each other more than ever to face the Covid crisis. Greater transatlantic cooperation to build resilience would also be needed in closely related areas of international relations and security issues. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, pandémie de COVID-19, Corona, croissance économique, États-Unis, RU, relations transatlantiques, commerce international, zone de libre-échange, union douanière, Anglosphère |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F22 F52 F68 I15 N1 N40 O24 O5 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109399&r= |
| By: | Urata, Shujiro (Asian Development Bank Institute); Baek, Youngmin (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of local firms’ participation in global value chains (GVCs) on productivity by considering three different patterns of GVC participation. We conducted a DID-PSM estimation involving three countries, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam, and 17 manufacturing sectors in 2009 and 2015. We found an endogenous relationship between firm productivity and GVC participation: firms that enter GVCs have high productivity before participating in the GVCs (selection effect), and only Indonesian firms which entered GVCs had a high productivity growth after joining GVCs (learning effect). These two effects were only found for firms which both import intermediate goods and export output, and not for firms which only either import or export. We also found that indirect exporting does not improve a local firm’s productivity. We give several recommendations to help firms and governments facilitate the participation of firms in GVCs. |
| Keywords: | global value chains; productivity |
| JEL: | D24 F14 L11 |
| Date: | 2021–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1245&r= |
| By: | Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Goran Vukšić |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the relationship between labour taxation and international trade, focusing on the role of domestic labour value added. Using sectoral data from 41 EU and OECD economies over the period 2005-2014, we assess how labour taxes affect exports and imports and how domestic labour value added shapes this relationship. We find that higher labour taxes reduce exports but that the effect depends to a large extent on the share of domestic labour value added, which differs by industries, countries and time periods. Imports do not seem to be affected. This implies that changes in labour taxes will not affect all sectors and countries in the same way and that policy makers should be aware of this when deciding on labour taxes. We also calculate the contribution of labour tax changes to the export dynamics in the analysed period and sample of countries, finding that in general the contribution is small. |
| Keywords: | taxation, labour, international trade, exports, imports, labour share |
| JEL: | F14 F16 H24 J32 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:205&r= |
| By: | Kuusi, Tero; Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki |
| Abstract: | Abstract In this paper, we study the impacts of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) between the EU countries and China on EU home investments. We consider BITs as “treatments” that provide further access to global value chains (GVCs). We identify the causal impacts of the BITs on the relationship between home investments and the deepening of GVCs, with identification arising from exogenous, pre-treaty variation in the exposure to the Chinese value chains. We show that strong pre-treaty exposure to the Chinese value chains has led to a further strengthening of the Chinese upstream linkages and a decreasing impact on domestic capital growth in the EU. it seems that the effects of the BITs are strongly felt in growing industries where there have been high capital growth rates, most pronouncedly in the manufacture of computer, electronic, and optical products, and pharmaceuticals. On the other hand, it is also felt in some industries that have had laggard capital growth rates, such as the textile industry. However, it appears that the effect has been heterogeneous, concentrating on countries with low productivity, as relative to the global industry averages. Among the exposed industries with a high pre-treaty fraction of Chinese production, the high-productivity ones tend to increase their relative labor-productivity growth and value-added growth more after the signing of a treaty. The negative link between non-Chinese investments and the pre-treaty exposure also characterizes BITs with China and non-EU countries, but not BITs without China as a partner country. |
| Keywords: | Domestic investments, Foreign investments, Investment treaty, Overseas investments, Global value chain, Bilateral treaties |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F13 F62 L24 |
| Date: | 2021–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:115&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The combined impact of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic on British foreign- and trade relations to Israel and its Arab neighbours constitute a particularly sensitive case. A destabilization of these countries could impact seriously stability and security, not just of the Middle-East region, but on the whole world. So far, the preliminary effects are ambivalent. Whereas Britons entertained reasoned hope for a ‘Corona miracle’ and a marvellous economic recovery in 2021, the prospects for Israel, the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt were less rosy. Presumably, Brexit is likely to harm the United Kingdom in the medium and long run. The post-Brexit impact on Israel and its Arab neighbours will be negative as well, but probably only be felt in the medium and long term also. However, the direct and indirect negative effects of the global COVID-19 crisis will by far outdo the Brexit impact. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, COVID-19-pandemic, Corona, economic growth, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, United Kingdom, international trade, free trade area, customs union, Anglosphere, |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F22 F52 F68 I14 N1 N40 O24 O5 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109153&r= |
| By: | Ben Shepherd (Developing Trade Consultants, USA) |
| Abstract: | The concept of effective rate of protection expresses protection on a sector’s final output relative to protection affecting its inputs. As such, it is well adapted to analysing the effects of trade policy from a supply chain standpoint. This paper makes two contributions to the literature on effective rates of protection. First, it draws on the literature on trade in value added to highlight an alternative to the traditional measure that better accounts for supply chain trade by considering both direct and indirect input use. Second, it includes data on ad valorem equivalents of non-tariff measures, which are increasingly important as trade policy instruments. In an analysis covering 17 aggregate goods sectors, I find that average tariff only effective rates of protection in ASEAN averaged 6.9% and ranged from zero to 23.4% in 2018. By contrast, effective rates including non-tariff measures averaged 14.0% and ranged from –6.2% to 44.0%. While patterns of escalation and even effective taxation differ substantially across sectors, most countries practice a tariff and NTM trade policy that is broadly neutral between input and output sectors, but which causes low to moderate isolation from world markets. Given the complexity of tariffs and NTMs from a supply chain perspective, there would likely be reductions in economic waste accompanying substantial simplification. |
| Keywords: | International trade policy; non-tariff measures; trade in value added; effective rate of protection; Southeast Asia |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O24 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-27&r= |
| By: | Agarwal, Manmohan (RIS); Betai, Neha (Indian Institute of Management) |
| Abstract: | Since the second world war, it was observed that trade between two countries could not be explained entirely by the classical and neoclassical models of trade that emphasised inter-industry trade. It was found that trade between countries was increasingly dominated by intra-industry trade (IIT), where countries exchanged products that fell in the same category. In this paper, we try to determine the extent of IIT between India and its top fifteen trading patterns. Unlike other papers, we do not simply calculate aggregate IIT for all merchandise trade. Instead, we focus on manufactured products and divide them into ten categories based on their technological content. Our analysis reveals that while India's IIT has increased in recent years, it is not the dominant form of trade between India and its most important partners. When we look at the factors that determine IIT, we find that India's comparative advantage and trade agreements play a positive and significant role in increasing IIT. Lastly, an analysis of the category Medium Technology Manufactures - Process reveals that this sector has potential for higher IIT and gains from it if India can enhance its efficiency and increase its size. |
| Keywords: | Intra-industry trade ; Technological content ; Trade Partners |
| JEL: | F12 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:21/348&r= |
| By: | Pavel Chakraborty (Department of Economics, Management School, Lancaster University); Rahul Singh (Economics and Social Sciences Area, Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) imposed by destination markets on prices, marginal costs, and markups of Indian manufacturing exporters. Using detailed firm-product-level data on prices and production from PROWESS, we first identify the underlying component of prices (i.e. marginal costs and markups), and use those as our outcomes of interest in the second stage. We find that (i) introduction of TBTs by importing countries increases marginal costs by 5% and prices by 4%, (ii) there is considerable heterogeneity based on exporters’ initial productivity, (iii) productive exporters (those belonging to the lower deciles) experienced an increase in marginal costs and decrease in markups compared to low productivity exporters, and (iv) overall effects are driven by private firms (both domestic and foreign) belonging to intermediate input industries. |
| Keywords: | technical barriers to trade, prices, marginal costs, markups, exporters |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-26&r= |
| By: | Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Junianto James Losari (UMBRA - Strategic Legal Solutions) |
| Abstract: | The European Union (EU) and China have recently reached an agreement: the EU–China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). As one of the most recent investment agreements concluded by the EU, the paper aims to assess specific concessions made in the agreement, and provides lessons learnt for Indonesia on the ongoing negotiations of the Indonesia–EU free trade agreement, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU CEPA). The paper will present an overview of the main areas covered under the CAI, assess the potential impacts of the CAI on EU investment into Indonesia, and set out lessons that can be learnt from the CAI. |
| Keywords: | Investment agreement, FTA, China, European Union, Indonesia |
| JEL: | F F15 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2021–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-29&r= |
| By: | Escaith, Hubert |
| Abstract: | This article proposes a new formulation of constant market share (CMS) trade analysis inspired by the statistical principles supporting revealed comparative advantages (RCA). This novel approach is methodologically consistent and rooted in information theory. It also avoids the discrete-form residuals that plague traditional CMS analysis, while remaining simple to compute. The new “comparative market share analysis decomposition” (CMSD) is applied to the changes in the structure and origin of United States imports after the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It is shown in this exercise that both CMSD and RCA can be paired together in order to shed light on the dynamics of competitiveness and comparative advantages in international trade. |
| Keywords: | COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL, MERCADOS, PARTICIPACION EN EL MERCADO, EXPORTACIONES, COMPETITIVIDAD, ANALISIS COMPARATIVO, NAFTA, POLITICA COMERCIAL, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, MARKETS, MARKET SHARE, EXPORTS, COMPETITIVENESS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, NAFTA, TRADE POLICY |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col031:47123&r= |
| By: | Azizjon Alimov (IESEG School of Management, LEM-CNRS UMR 9221) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the 1989 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to study the effect of increased foreign competition on the efficiency of corporate acquisition decisions. Following the FTA, U.S. acquirers exposed to greater increases in competitive pressure experience higher announcement returns. The positive impact of increased competition is stronger in acquirers with relatively higher agency costs prior to the FTA. Managers of acquirers exposed to greater foreign competition are more likely to be terminated following value-destroying acquisitions. Overall, these results are consistent with an active role for product market competition in disciplining managers with respect to important investment decisions. These results have broader implications: a rise in foreign competition can potentially improve the efficiency of key managerial decisions. |
| Keywords: | Trade Liberalization, Mergers and acquisitions, Competition, Governance. |
| JEL: | G34 F13 D43 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:f202105&r= |
| By: | Miriam Kohl (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz); Philipp M. Richter (TU Dresden) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of a unilateral reform of the redistribution policy in an economy open to international trade. We set up a general equilibrium trade model with heterogeneous agents allowing for country asymmetries. We show that under international trade compared to autarky, a unilateral tax increase leads to a less pronounced decline in aggregate real income in the reforming country, while income inequality is reduced to a larger extent for sufficiently small initial tax rates. We highlight as a key mechanism a tax-induced reduction in the market size of the reforming country relative to its trading partner, resulting in a firm selection effect towards exporting. From the perspective of a non-reforming trading partner, the unilateral redistribution policy reform resembles a unilateral increase in trade costs leading to a deterioration of terms-of-trade and a decline in both aggregate real income and inequality. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, Redistribution, International trade, Heterogeneous firms |
| JEL: | D31 F12 F16 H24 |
| Date: | 2021–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2113&r= |
| By: | Zhelev, Paskal |
| Abstract: | While the Black Sea has historically been an area of significant geostrategic importance, this has not made it a vibrant zone of commerce, transport, energy, tourism, or cultural exchange. Rather, it has become a theatre of struggle for dominance and competing geopolitical and geo-economic interests. This situation has been exacerbated by conflict between Russia and countries in the region, like Ukraine and Georgia, that have sought closer ties with the West and aspire to NATO membership and EU integration. These developments have dire consequences for regional security and stability, disrupting political and economic ties in the area and beyond. A long-term solution to the region’s security issues could be based on intensifying trade relations and increasing economic interdependence between the states. This paper identifies major barriers to closer regional trade and economic cooperation and outlines ways to overcome them. |
| Keywords: | Black Sea region, regional integration, sub-regionalism, foreign trade |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F50 F51 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109487&r= |
| By: | Luca Fontanelli; Mattia Guerini; Mauro Napoletano |
| Abstract: | We build a simple dynamic model to study the effects of technological learning, market selection and international competition in the determination of export flows and market shares. The model features two countries populated by firms with heterogeneous productivity levels and sales. Market selection in each country is driven by a finite pairwise Polya urn process. We show that market selection leads either to a national or to an international monopoly in presence of a static distribution of firm productivity levels. We then incorporate firm learning and entry-exit in the model and we show that the market structure does not converge to a monopoly. In addition, we show that the extended model is able to jointly reproduce a wide ensemble of stylized facts concerning intra-industry trade, industry and firm dynamics. |
| Keywords: | International trade; industrial dynamics; firm dynamics; market selection; Polya urn. |
| Date: | 2021–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/27&r= |
| By: | Jane Kelsey (University of Auckland, New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | As the digital economy expands in scale, scope, and form it poses major challenges for public revenue and tax policy and administration in Asia and other parts of the global South. When attempts led by developed countries at the OECD-led Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) to agree on new norms for taxing digital giants like Facebook, Google, and Amazon stalled, individual countries, including a number of developing countries in Asia, began developing their own responses, notably the adoption of digital services taxes. High-level compromises have recently been announced at the OECD, but the details are yet to come and are not expected to address the needs of developing countries to effectively tax the activities of digital giants operating from offshore. As countries seek effective and workable means to tax the digitalised economy, existing and proposed international rules on digital trade in free trade agreements, and plurilateral moves to develop electronic commerce rules in the World Trade Organization, may fetter their ability to do so. To date, very little attention has been paid in trade negotiations to the consequences of these developments for countries’ tax regimes. Nor have the adequacy, effectiveness, and workability of the tax exceptions in trade and investment agreements been properly re-assessed. Many governments are only becoming aware that trade rules may constrains their ability to regulate the (poorly understood and fast moving) digital domain after they have signed up to them. A series of investigations by the US government under Section 301 of the US Trade Act 1974 into digital services taxes, including those adopted by India and proposed by Indonesia, provides a real-world basis on which to assess how binding and enforceable digital trade rules might be used to challenge digital tax measures at the unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral levels. In highlighting these risks, the paper aims to provide a framework for the tax and trade divisions of governments in ASEAN and East Asia to reflect together on the potential for proposed digital trade rules to impact negatively on their public revenue. |
| Keywords: | electronic commerce, digital trade, digital services tax, CPTPP, RCEP, BEPS |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O24 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-28&r= |
| By: | Luca Fontanelli (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG CNRS); Mattia Guerini (University of Brescia; GREDEG, CNRS, Université Côte d’Azur, France; bInstitute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Italy); Mauro Napoletano (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG CNRS; OFCE Sciences-Po; SKEMA Business School) |
| Abstract: | We build a simple dynamic model to study the effects of technological learning, market selection and international competition in the determination of export ows and market shares. The model features two countries populated by firms with heterogeneous productivity levels and sales. Market selection in each country is driven by a finite pairwise Pólya urn process. We show that market selection leads either to a national or to an international monopoly in presence of a static distribution of firm productivity levels. We then incorporate firm learning and entry-exit in the model and we show that the market structure does not converge to a monopoly. In addition, we show that the extended model is able to jointly reproduce a wide ensemble of stylized facts concerning intra-industry trade, industry and firm dynamics. |
| Keywords: | International trade, industrial dynamics, firm dynamics, market selection, Pólya urn |
| JEL: | C15 F1 L1 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2021-33&r= |
| By: | Cheng, Haitao |
| Abstract: | In this study, we develop a two-country model to examine whether border carbon adjustments (BCAs) are more effective than emission tax alone in preventing carbon leakage and decreasing global emissions with endogenous assembly locations. Specifically, we explore three policy regimes: i) emission taxes alone (no BCAs), ii) emission taxes and carbon-content tariffs (partial BCAs), and iii) emission taxes, carbon-content tariffs, and tax rebates on exports (full BCAs). We find that the effectiveness of BCAs depends on whether BCAs induce assembly relocation. If assembly relocation does not occur, BCAs prevent carbon leakage and decrease global emissions. However, if BCAs induce assembly relocation, carbon leakage may occur with partial BCAs, and global emissions may be higher with full BCAs. |
| Keywords: | Abatement Investments, Border Carbon Adjustments, Carbon Leakage, Endogenous Assembly Locations, International Oligopoly |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-110&r= |
| By: | Cheng, Haitao |
| Abstract: | In this study, we develop a two-country model to examine whether border carbon adjustments (BCAs) are more effective than emission tax alone in preventing carbon leakage and decreasing global emissions with endogenous assembly locations. Specifically, we explore three policy regimes: i) emission taxes alone (no BCAs), ii) emission taxes and carbon-content tariffs (partial BCAs), and iii) emission taxes, carbon-content tariffs, and tax rebates on exports (full BCAs). We find that the effectiveness of BCAs depends on whether BCAs induce assembly relocation. If assembly relocation does not occur, BCAs prevent carbon leakage and decrease global emissions. However, if BCAs induce assembly relocation, carbon leakage may occur with partial BCAs, and global emissions may be higher with full BCAs. |
| Keywords: | Abatement Investments, Border Carbon Adjustments, Carbon Leakage, Endogenous Assembly Locations, International Oligopoly |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-111&r= |
| By: | Barbero, Javier; Mandras, Giovanni; Rodríguez-Crespo, Ernesto; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Using a novel database of regional trade flows between 267 European regions for 2013, this paper examines how government quality affects trade between European Union (EU) regions. The results of a structural gravity cross-sectional analysis of trade show that trade across EU regions is highly influenced by differences in regional government quality. This influence varies by both sector of economic activity and the level of economic development of the region. The results indicate that if the less developed regions of the EU want to engage in greater interregional trade, improving their institutional quality is a must. |
| Keywords: | quality of government; institutions; regional policy; gravity model of trade; structural estimation |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2021–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108211&r= |
| By: | Cristian Luise (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Peter J. Buckley (Centre for International Business, Leeds University Business School); Hinrich Voss (Department of International Business, HEC Montreal); Emmanuella Plakoyiannaki (Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics, University of Vienna); Elisa Barbieri (Dept. of Economics, Università Ca' Foscari Venice) |
| Abstract: | Infrastructural assets are vital for a country’s economic and social development. Governments typically provide the regulation and administration of these assets, while multinational enterprises (MNEs) develop, construct, finance, and operate them. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) promises infrastructure projects that deliver economic and social benefit for both the host country and the MNE. We argue that BRI objectives and project scope are kept in check in the host country through an existing nexus of property rights. Chinese investors need to understand the bargaining position and property rights actors across multiple levels, across space, and be mindful of changes over time when negotiating for an infrastructure investment. We interrogate four case studies of Chinese investment negotiations in Italian ports to explore the conceptual framework and to examine how the negotiation process evolved following BRI. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure, FDI policy, emerging market multinationals, contract theory, Italy, ports, case study. |
| JEL: | F23 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:184&r= |
| By: | Gizem Ulusoy; Yeim Tanrvermi |
| Abstract: | Globalization, foreign direct investments (FDI) and international real estate investments have been known as most popular issues in recent years. The fourth phase of globalization have “caused such a multilayered change including economic, political, socio-cultural areas. The free movement of capital is known as the most important component of the economic dimension of globalization taken together the conditions of FDI and it has been determined that real estate investment has an increased share throughout the total investment figures in Turkey. Within this respect it has been provided that internationalized real estate investments will play a leading role for emerging economies. Developing economies need to overcome their own problems in the development process regarding their insufficient capital accumulation and technological deficiencies as well as low income and low savings to reach the capital accumulation they need which takes a very long term. Therefore, it seems natural that they aim to obtain the investment capital from global capital within development process. It is also known that FDI offers important profit opportunities not only for the host country but also for the country investing. It is observed that the effects of the strategies to be implemented at both national and regional levels by both sides of the investments where the mutual win-win approach is valid direct this process. Referring to the mentioned effects in specific to Turkey, FDI is essential for the economy as a developing economy. Legal regulations and incentives to attract investments creates an effective and favorable environment in Turkey. Turkey does not only attract foreign investment, but also invests in, shows that having a role in multiple areas of the global economy. This paper aims to reveal the relationship between the foreign real estate investments and the macroeconomic indicators in Turkey using both primary and secondary data as well as tackling the studies examining the FDI received in Turkey briefly. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In the next section a quick literature review including examples of developing economies is presented, then legal dimensions regarding FDI in Turkey in addition to international law have been discussed. Section 3 outlines the economic and political climate in Turkey between the years 2007-2019 prior to tackling with fieldwork results (primary data) in the light of the secondary data. Section 4 concludes the paper and propose a solution for the future perspective. |
| Keywords: | emerging economies; Foreign Direct Investment; Globalization; Real Estate Investment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_153&r= |
| By: | Sunghun Lim |
| Abstract: | Since the mid-1900s, agricultural global value chains (AGVCs) have grown rapidly and transformed the nature of agri-food production around the world. Little is known, however, about how participation in AGVCs changes the structure of participating economies. Using a constructed panel dataset from 155 countries for the period 1991-2015, I find that, in response to high AGVC participation, both GDP and employment shares in the agricultural and services sectors increase, and that both factors decrease in the manufacturing sector. Counter to conventional wisdom about structural transformation, I uncover evidence that modern agrarian economies are leapfrogging the manufacturing sector to directly develop their agriculture and services sectors through their participation in AGVCs. |
| JEL: | F14 F63 O13 Q17 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29194&r= |
| By: | Christopher Findlay (Australian National University, Australia); Hein Roelfsema (Utrecht University, the Netherlands); Niall Van De Wouw (CLIVE Data Services, the Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on air cargo market development, with special attention to the connections between countries in Asia, the European Union, and the United States. Before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis, we show that participation in global value chains played a crucial role in how countries in Asia increased their exposure to the European Union market, which was hit hardest by the COVID-19 crisis. Analysing the effects of the crisis in 2020- using a fuzzy set complexity approach and recent high-frequency data on air cargo transport - we show that such demand effects, together with domestic contraction conditions, explain a large share of variation in air cargo dynamics across countries in Asia. However, we also show that implementing best practices in pandemic control positively impacts air cargo recovery for countries that cannot rely on export market rebounds. After reviewing the convergence in air cargo business models since 2010, the paper continues to assess recovery options. The main conclusion is that business models will converge on long haul point-to-point models that combine passengers and cargo, moving away from the current hub and spoke system. |
| Keywords: | Air cargo, ASEAN, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | F15 F53 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-23&r= |
| By: | Philippe Aghion; Antonin Bergeaud; Matthieu Lequien; Marc Melitz; Thomas Zuber |
| Abstract: | We decompose the “China shock” into two components that induce different adjustments for firms exposed to Chinese exports: a horizontal shock affecting firms selling goods that compete with similar imported Chinese goods, and a vertical shock affecting firms using inputs similar to the imported Chinese goods. Combining French accounting, customs, and patent information at the firm-level, we show that the horizontal shock is detrimental to firms’ sales, employment, and innovation. Moreover, this negative impact is concentrated on low-productivity firms. By contrast, we find a positive effect - although often not significant - of the vertical shock on firms’ sales, employment, and innovation. |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F6 O31 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29196&r= |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Sinha, Avik; Raghutla, Chandrashekar; Vo, Xuan Vinh |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to literature by divulging the nature of scale and technique effects on renewable energy consumption, considering foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial development as considerable factors of renewable energy demand. The data for 39 countries over the period of 2000-2019 is used for empirical analysis. In doing so, second generation methodological approaches are applied to decompose scale and technique effects. The empirical results show the presence of cointegration between the model parameters, in the presence of cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks. Further, financial development is positively linked with renewable energy consumption. Foreign direct investment and renewable energy demand are positively linked. Composition effect has negative effect on renewable energy consumption. Economic growth and fossil fuel consumption have positive impact on renewable energy consumption. Long run estimation results indicate that renewable energy-FDI and renewable energy-financial development associations are U-shaped. It indicates that the scale effects exerted by FDI and financial development are overridden by technique and composition effects, and hence, the demand for renewable energy and consequential renewable energy consumption rises with the progression of economic growth. Based on this, policy suggestions are provided for these nations to ascertain sustainable development through bringing forth transformations in the energy policies. |
| Keywords: | Scale and Technique Effects, Financial Development, Foreign Direct Investment, Renewable Energy Consumption |
| JEL: | Q4 |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109125&r= |
| By: | Yadav, Sandeep |
| Abstract: | This study explores the interrelatedness between the various temporal concept of internationalization. Using organizational learning perspective, this study explores the impact of foreign entry timing, time since first foreign entry on the speed of internationalization. The author tests the proposed hypotheses on a sample of 11291 Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from 118 countries based on World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) data. The results show that foreign entry timing reduces the speed of internationalization while time since first foreign entry increases the speed of internationalization. Further, the author finds that manager prior domestic industry experience reduce disadvantages associated with the late start of internationalization and increase speed of internationalization. In contrast, the author finds support for the negative moderating effect of manager domestic industry experience on the time since first foreign entry and internationalization speed relationship. |
| Keywords: | foreign entry timing; time since first foreign entry; time in internationalization; speed of internationalization; SMEs; organizational learning; manager experience; temporality; absorptive capacity |
| JEL: | F23 M12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109160&r= |
| By: | Małgorzata Walerych |
| Abstract: | The 2004 EU enlargement has triggered large and rapid migration movements from the new to the old member states. The scale of this outflow was unprecedented in the CEE history and its structure was also different from previous emigration waves as it was more heavily biased towards young and educated people. I exploit this post-accession emigration wave to study the aggregate and redistributive effects of emigration. Using a two-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and endogenous migration choice calibrated to Polish data, I show that emigration lowers output per capita and improves the international investment position of the source country. Changes in population structure resulting from population outflows affect the wage distribution between high-skilled and low-skilled workers, thereby increasing economic inequalities. Moreover, I find that lifting labour mobility barriers is beneficial not only for people who move abroad, but also for skilled never-migrants. |
| Keywords: | migration, sending country, heterogenous agents, EU accession |
| JEL: | F22 J61 D31 D58 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2021066&r= |
| By: | Daniel Fried |
| Abstract: | Since 1982, growth in the value of foreign investments in the United States has exceeded growth in the value of U.S. investments abroad and, as a result, the U.S. net international investment position has been negative and trending lower. Even though the value of foreign investments in the United States has exceeded the value of U.S. investments abroad, the total income earned by U.S. investors on their foreign asset holdings has historically exceeded the total income earned by foreign investors on their U.S. holdings. The United States is able to earn positive net |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F37 |
| Date: | 2021–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:wpaper:57326&r= |
| By: | Jorge Braga de Macedo; Joaquim Oliveira Martins; João Tovar Jalles |
| Abstract: | Using a large panel for 95 countries and the 1972-2014 period, this paper analyses the interactions among globalization, political & civil rights and economic convergence, through a simultaneous estimation technique. We use a multi-dimensional, de facto, and continuous measures of Freedoms and Globalization. We find a two-way positive relationship between civil liberties & political rights and economic, political and social Globalization, as well as significant two-way relationships with the economic convergence (using as a proxy the ratio of GDP per capita to the US). In this way, we extend the test for the two-way relationship between Democracy and Globalization put forward by Eichengreen and Leblang (2008). Overall, we also find a virtuous cycle between Globalization, Freedoms and Economic convergence, except for non- OECD countries at early intermediate stages of development. This positive systemic effect can be put into question by the recent negative shocks on Globalization and Freedoms related to the Covid-19 pandemic. |
| Keywords: | globalization; democracy; freedoms; development; convergence; panel data; three-stage least squares |
| JEL: | F02 F11 F13 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01892021&r= |
| By: | Nicol, Alan (International Water Management Institute (IWMI)); Abdoubaetova, A.; Wolters, A.; Kharel, A.; Murzakolova, A.; Gebreyesus, A.; Lucasenco, E.; Chen, F.; Sugden, F; Sterly, H.; Kuznetsova, I.; Masotti, M.; Vittuari, M.; Dessalegn, Mengistu (International Water Management Institute (IWMI)); Aderghal, M.; Phalkey, N.; Sakdapolrak, P.; Mollinga, P.; Mogilevskii, R.; Mogilevskii, R.; Naruchaikusol, S. |
| Abstract: | This working paper was produced under the European Union Horizon 2020 funded AGRUMIG project and traces the impact of Covid-19 on migration trends in seven project countries – China, Ethiopia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Morocco, Nepal and Thailand. The context of global migration has changed dramatically due to the coronavirus pandemic. Both within and between countries there has been a substantial curtailment of movement. As a result of multiple lockdowns, economic activity has severely declined and labor markets have ground to a halt, with mass unemployment in industrialized economies looming on the horizon. For both migrant hosting and origin countries – some are substantially both – this poses a set of complex development challenges. Partners of the AGRUMIG project undertook a rapid review of impacts across project countries, exploring the impacts on rural households but also identifying the persistent desire to migrate in spite of restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Migration; COVID-19; Pandemics; Labour market; Migrant labour; Unemployment; Livelihoods; Health hazards; Income; Remittances; Economic activities; Poverty; Social inequalities; Food supply; Households; Rural areas; State intervention; Governance; Quarantine; Travel restrictions; Border closures; Policies; Assessment; Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:worppr:h050125&r= |
| By: | Roberto Georg Uebel (Escola Superior de Propaganda e Marketing (ESPM)); Amanda Raldi; Sonia Ranincheski (UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul [Porto Alegre]) |
| Abstract: | If Latin America can be understood as a laboratory for the new regional systems of the 21st century, the protagonism of Brazil, a country that has undergone profound political, economic and social changes in the last two decades, was its main ingredient. One of the fields that stood out was that of international migrations towards the country, which has consolidated as one of the main destinations for Latin Americans, West Africans and East Asians in the global South. After observing an unprecedented immigration flow of Haitians, Senegalese, Cubans, Bengalis and Venezuelans, Brazil today has a geopolitical paradigm: It has one of the most modern migratory laws in the international system and, at the same time, governments and anti-immigration, anti-integration and anti-globalisation institutions. This work will present Brazil's immigration profile in the last two decades and a brief discussion about the country's migration governance, its new agendas and perspectives. It is an interdisciplinary work of Geography, International Relations and Political Science. |
| Abstract: | Si l'Amérique latine peut être comprise comme un laboratoire des nouveaux systèmes régionaux du XXIesiècle, le protagonisme du Brésil, pays qui a observé de profonds changements politiques, économiques et sociaux au cours des deux dernières décennies, en a été le principal ingrédient. L'un des domaines qui s'est démarqué a été celui des migrations internationales vers le pays, une des principales destinations des Latino-Américains, des Ouest-Africains et des Asiatiques de l'Est dans les pays du Sud global. Après avoir perçu un flux d'immigration sans précédent d'Haïtiens, de Sénégalais, de Cubains, de Bengalis et de Vénézuéliens, le Brésil fait aujourd'hui face à un paradigme géopolitique : il a à la fois l'une des lois migratoires les plus modernes du système international et des gouvernements et des institutions anti-immigration, anti-intégration et d'antimondialisation. Ce travail présentera le profil d'immigration du Brésil des deux dernières décennies et une brève discussion sur la gouvernance migratoire du pays, ses nouveaux agendas et perspectives. Il s'agit d'un travail interdisciplinaire de géographie, relations internationales et science politique. |
| Keywords: | Governance,Perspectives,Agendas,International migrations,Brazil,agendas,migrations internationales,Brésil,perspectives,gouvernance |
| Date: | 2020–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03114077&r= |
| By: | Bruno Jetin (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - UP13 - Université Paris 13, IAS - Institute of Asian Studies, Universiti Brunei Darussalam) |
| Abstract: | This book chapter analyses the Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia and Europe. It shows the attractiveness of the Chinese initiative for the host countries but also the political and economic challenges it involves: the sudden massive presence of Chinese companies, the new financial dependence on Chinese loans that will have to be paid back, and the political ties it establishes with China's diplomacy. This may destabilise both ASEAN and the EU, which are ill-prepared to defend a common attitude vis-à-vis China. Confronted with the creation of the "Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries" (China-CEE, China-CEEC) initiated in 2012, the EU struggled to maintain its unity like ASEAN before in the South China Sea conflict. The EU policy in Southeast Asia and towards ASEAN lacks ambition and means and is a poor alternative to China's BRI. We conclude that the EU must change its policy towards ASEAN and propose more than new free trade agreements |
| Abstract: | La stratégie chinoise des "nouvelles routes de la soie" (NRS) L'initiative des nouvelles routes de la soie 1 a été annoncée en septembre 2013 par le Président Xi Jinping au Kazakhstan, pour ce qui concerne les routes terrestres, et en octobre en Indonésie pour ce qui concerne les routes maritimes. Lors de son 19 ème congrès en 2017, le Parti communiste chinois l'a incluse dans sa charte constitutive en même temps que la « pensée » de Xi Jinping, pour en souligner l'importance pour la diplomatie chinoise pour ce 21 ème siècle. C'est un projet très ambitieux visant à renforcer les infrastructures de transport, d'énergie et de communication entre la Chine et 65 pays d'Asie, d'Afrique et d'Europe. Cette stratégie de long terme vise plusieurs objectifs. Premièrement, maintenir la prospérité de l'économie chinoise qui est entrée dans une phase durable de croissance plus modérée et dont les avantages compétitifs se modifient. L'avantage du faible coût salarial s'est érodé et pour garantir leurs débouchés extérieurs, les entreprises chinoises produisent de plus en plus à l'étranger. Deuxièmement, la Chine cherche à garantir la sécurité de ses importations, notamment en énergie et en matières premières, qui dépendent de manière excessive du détroit de Malacca, situé au coeur de l'Asie du sud-est. Troisièmement, la Chine poursuit des objectifs diplomatiques et géostratégiques. Comme d'autres grandes puissances par le passé, elle veut d'abord assurer sa prédominance dans sa région d'origine, l'Asie, à commencer par la mer de Chine du sud. Cela fait de l'Asie du sud-est, et de sa représentation politique, l'ASEAN, un enjeu déterminant. Cette volonté d'hégémonie implique que la Chine soit une puissance militaire de premier plan ce qui suppose des capacités de transport terrestre, maritime et aérien. En réalisant des investissements massifs dans les infrastructures, la Chine peut espérer atteindre l'ensemble de ces objectifs. La zone géographique concernée regroupe 75% du Produit Intérieur Brut du monde, 70% de la population mondiale et 75% des réserves connues en énergie 2 . |
| Keywords: | ASEAN,EU,Belt and Road Initiative,EU diplomatic policy,China diplomatic policy in Europe |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03321124&r= |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; von Berlepsch, Viola |
| Abstract: | Does past migration beget future migration? Do migrants from different backgrounds, origins and ethnicities, and separated by several generations always settle – in a path dependent way – in the same places? Is there a permanent separation between migration-prone and migration-averse areas? This paper examines whether that is the case by looking at the settlement patterns of two very different migration waves, that of Europeans at the end of the 19th and early 20th centuries and that of Latin Americans between the 1960s and the early 21st century. Using Census data aggregated at county level, we track the settlement pattern of migrants and assess the extent to which the first mass migration wave has determined the later settlement pattern of Latin American migrants to the US. The analysis, conducted using ordinary least squares, instrumental variable and panel data estimation techniques, shows that past US migration patterns create a path dependence that has consistently affected the geography of future migration waves. Recent Latin American migrants have flocked, once other factors are controlled for, to the same migration prone US counties where their European predecessors settled, in spite of the very different nature of both migration waves and a time gap of three to five generations. |
| Keywords: | counties; Europe; Latin America; long-term; migration; migration waves; US |
| JEL: | F22 J15 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103973&r= |
| By: | Stojcic, Nebojsa |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to explore the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on changes in export competitiveness of firms from Croatian manufacturing industry. The analysis is based on the data about firm behaviour in period following first wave of Covid-19 pandemic. The data was collected by World Bank during August and September 2020 and publicly released in early October 2020. The results of investigation reveal that probability of decreasing export revenues falls among firms that solved their liquidity problems through equity financing, deferred payments to workers and suppliers and with the support of public grants. Statistically significant evidence of the tax exemptions, wage subsidies and commercial banks’ loans was not found. Companies with higher level of robustness to external shocks have lower probability of decreasing export revenues. The impact of introduction or implementation of online sales on export revenues is negative. Results of investigation may serve for formulation of economic policies in similar future cases. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; manufacturing; Croatia; export |
| JEL: | F10 H84 I12 I15 L60 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109135&r= |
| By: | Van, Germinal; Orellana, Jose |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to analyze the economic cost of illegal immigration in the United States since the 1990s and its consequences on American society. Indeed, illegal immigration has been a major topic of discussion among the main social issues during election cycles in the United States. Those who lean more conservative have argued that illegal immigration is an externality that increase social cost. They argue that illegal immigrants increase the cost of healthcare, public education, and welfare programs such as Medicaid and food stamps. And the cost falls on the American taxpayer. Those who lean more liberal argue that the government should create social programs to assist illegal immigrants in helping them adjusting and conforming their immigration status to the laws and customs of the United States. This paper has two objectives: (1) to determine if illegal immigration imposes a higher social cost on the American taxpayer based on a multivariate regression analysis, (2) to propose recommendations to help the illegal immigrants becoming legal while minimizing the future social cost of illegal immigration on the American taxpayer. Our findings show that there is a correlational relationship between illegal immigration and the cost of social welfare, and this correlational relationship is of strong magnitude. |
| Keywords: | Econometrics, Economic Analysis, Applied Economics, Econometric Modelling, Multivariate Regression Analysis, Statistical Modelling |
| JEL: | C01 C10 C31 C54 D60 H4 |
| Date: | 2021–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109519&r= |
| By: | Elise Petit; Bruno Van Pottelsberghe; Lluís Gimeno Fabra |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the literature providing empirical evidence that patent offices are biased in favour of their national applicants. If true, this “national bias” would be proof of disrespect of several international patent-related treaties. Existing investigations are however subject to an important limitation: they focus only on grant rates – a potentially biased indicator of stringency, since it is influenced by economic forces. It is argued that including a deeper analysis of how the patent examination process is carried out provides a more robust approach. Relying on a unique database of 2400 patent families filed simultaneously in three patent offices (EPO, JPO & USPTO), the paper finds no evidence of national bias throughout the examination process of any of them. |
| Keywords: | Patent systems, TRIPs, national bias, examination, international comparison |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/330840&r= |
| By: | Fays, Valentine; Mahy, Benoît; Rycx, François |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to investigate the role of firm-level upstreamness (i.e. the number of steps before the production of a firm meets final demand) in explaining wage differences according to workers' origin. Using unique linked employer-employee data relative to the Belgian manufacturing industry for the period 2002-2010, our estimates show that firms that are further up in the value chain pay significantly higher wages. However, the wage premium associated with upstreamness is also found to vary substantially depending on the origin of the workers. Unconditional quantile estimates suggest that those who benefit the most from being employed in more upstream firms are high-wage workers born in developed countries. In contrast, workers born in developing countries, irrespective of their earnings, appear to be unfairly rewarded. Quantile decompositions further show that, while differences in average values of upstreamness according to workers' origin play a limited role, differences in wage premia associated with upstreamness account for a substantial part of the wage gap between workers born in developed and developing countries, especially at the top of the earnings distribution. These results are shown to be robust to a number of sensitivity tests, including broader or narrower definitions of workers' wages and different firm environments in terms of technological and knowledge intensity. |
| Keywords: | Wage Gaps,Workers’ Origin,Global Value Chains,Upstreamness,Unconditional Quantile Estimates and Decompositions |
| JEL: | J15 J31 F16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:918&r= |