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on International Trade |
| By: | Bong Geul Chun (School of Economics, University of Seoul); Eun Suk Kim (Center for Fiscal Analysis, Korea Institute of Public Finance); Joo Yong Lee (Economic Research Institute, the Bank of Korea) |
| Abstract: | The spread of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) has been reshaping global trade environment. Under these changing economic circumstances, Korean firms have been trying to promote their international competitiveness by expanding export, establishing foreign subsidiaries, and strengthening joint investment. This study aims at investigating the effects of FTAs on the role of local subsidiaries of Korean firms that already made inroads into the FTA partner country by analyzing the effects of FTAs on intra-firm trade between Korean firms and their foreign subsidiaries using firm-level data on FDI. The results show that FTAs have been contributing to the expansion of sales of local subsidiaries in both Korea and third countries, although they have not significantly affected the expansion of sales of Korean firms to their foreign subsidiaries. Particularly in the manufacturing industry, FTAs have significant positive effects on the sales in Korea of local subsidiaries in addition to the sales in third countries. After analysing data by ownership, we find that when Korean firms have enough ownership to control their local subsidiaries overseas, FTAs have significant positive effects on the sales of local subsidiaries in both Korea and third countries. The results suggest that from the perspective of intra-firm trade, Korean firms have utilized their existing local subsidiaries as a platform for exports to a third country or a way to import products such as raw materials or intermediary goods after FTAs went into effect. The results also show that an increase in the sales of local subsidiaries in third countries, in particular, can have indirect positive effects on Korean firms through consolidated financial statements. |
| Keywords: | FTA, Intra-firm trade, Panel tobit |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2016–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bok:wpaper:1607&r=int |
| By: | Bruno, Randolph Luca; Campos, Nauro; Estrin, Saul; Tian, Meng |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the importance of economic integration in simultaneously fostering foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade. These have rarely been analyzed jointly using contemporary econometric methods. We estimate the effect of European Union (EU) membership on FDI inflows and trade using annual bilateral data from 34 OECD countries over 1985–2013. We find that EU membership increases FDI inflows by on average 28%. We jointly estimate the impact of EU membership on trade and FDI and find that they are substantial, with the one on trade larger than the one on FDI, in the order of double |
| Keywords: | special economic integration effects; foreign direct investment; international trade; European Union; gravity model |
| JEL: | F17 F21 F36 |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86615&r=int |
| By: | Frohmann, Alicia |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 24/2017 by Alicia Frohmann |
| Abstract: | International trade interacts with gender equality in different ways. Its impact is not neutral. The different impacts of international trade upon them are conditioned by the distinct roles of women and men in economic activity. Recognizing the socio-economic gaps between both sexes, the most recent trade policies include gender provisions as a means to promote the economic empowerment of women. In some cases, gender-specific provisions are included in agreements to promote equality, and there are also initiatives to mainstream a gender perspective into general trade rules, and into support instruments for the export sector. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) has been a pioneer in including gender issues into its agenda. A stand-alone chapter on gender and trade in a bilateral trade agreement was included first in the 2016 free-trade agreement between Chile and Uruguay. Another milestone was the Joint Declaration on Gender and Trade, endorsed by 118 countries in the context of the 11th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in December 2017. At the firm level, trade policy in Latin America and the Caribbean has been developing gender initiatives to further women's export entrepreneurship. Future actions on gender and trade can be implemented in three different areas: generation of data disaggregated by sex; development of gender-specific trade policies at the national, bilateral and multilateral levels; and promotion of women's export entrepreneurship, where trade promotion agencies (TPOs) play a key role. |
| Date: | 2018–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1150&r=int |
| By: | Ariu, Andrea; Breinlich, Holger; Corcos, Gregory; Mion, Giordano |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study how international trade in goods and services interact at the firm level. Using a rich dataset on Belgian firms during the period 1995-2005, we show that: i) firms are much more likely to source services and goods inputs from the same origin country rather than from different ones; ii) increases in barriers to imports of goods reduce firm-level imports of services from the same market, and conversely. We build upon a discrete-choice model of goods and services input sourcing that can reproduce these facts to design our econometric strategy and use the estimated model for counterfactual analysis. In particular, we look at the quantitative impact of reductions in goods and services barriers between the US and the EU. Our findings have important implications for the design of trade policy. They suggest that a liberalization of service trade can have quite direct and sizable effects on goods trade and vice-versa, and that jointly liberalizing goods and services trade brings about substantial complementarities |
| Keywords: | trade in services; trade in goods; complementarity; firm-level analysis; discrete choice models |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 L60 L80 |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86602&r=int |
| By: | Yoon, Yeo Joon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee, Woong (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes 2015-TPA voting patterns in the Congress in the context of the trade negotiating objectives. By setting the trade negotiating objectives, the Congress lays out important trade agenda that the Administration is ex-pected to address when it is negotiating trade deals with foreign countries. Therefore setting the objectives is subject of heated debates in the Congress and an important part of TPA. LPM and probit models are used to evaluate the importance of each trade negotiating objectives in 2015-TPA voting deci-sions. It turns out that the objective on promoting U.S. agricultural exports by reducing unfair trade barriers positively affected the voting decision in favor of the TPA. The objective on enforcing strong labor standards on trade partners also had significant impacts. One other notable result is that how much each congressional region export to China was also an important de-terminant. This variable is meant to capture several negotiating objectives as well as growing worries of large trade deficits with China. This study docu-ments important issues that U.S. Congress is concerned about in making conducting and implementing trade policies. It may provide insights into the future course of U.S. trade policy and trade deals such as renegotiation of NAFTA and Korea-US FTA. |
| Keywords: | Trade Agreements; Trade Promotion Authority; Voting |
| JEL: | D72 F10 |
| Date: | 2017–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwp:2017_008&r=int |
| By: | Czarny, Elzbieta; Folfas, Pawel |
| Abstract: | In this study, we analyse the potential substitution of Polish goods exported to the EU with American ones after tariffs are eliminated within the framework of TTIP (the so-called trade diversion effect). The survey covers the year 2014. Statistics (HS2 classification) come from TRAINS (tariffs) and COMTRADE (exports) databases. Trade diversion effect is possible only in the case of selected commodities and would be rather very limited. |
| Keywords: | TTIP, Poland, trade diversion effect |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83241&r=int |
| By: | Massimiliano Bratti; Luca De Benedictis; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | In this paper we highlight a new complementary channel to the business and social network effect à la Rauch (2001) through which immigrants generate increased export flows from the regions in which they settle to their countries of origin: they can become entrepreneurs. Using very small-scale (NUTS-3) administrative data on immigrants’ location in Italy, the local presence of immigrant entrepreneurs (i.e. firms owned by foreign-born entrepreneurs) in the manufacturing sector, and on trade flows in manufacturing between Italian provinces and more than 200 foreign countries, we assess the causal relationship going from diasporas and immigrant entrepreneurs towards export flows. Both the size of the diaspora and the number of immigrant entrepreneurs have a positive, significant and economically meaningful effect on exports. In particular, we find that increasing the stock of (non-entrepreneur) immigrants by 10% would lead to a 1.7% increase in exports in manufacturing, while increasing the number of immigrant entrepreneurs in manufacturing by 10% would raise exports by about 0.6%. |
| Keywords: | Exports;immigrants;gravity;immigrant entrepreneurs;Italy |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F22 R10 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-01&r=int |
| By: | Defever, Fabrice; Reyes, Jose-Daniel; Riaño, Alejandro; Sánchez-Martín, Miguel Eduardo |
| Abstract: | Special economic zones (SEZ), one of the most important instruments of industrial policy used in developing countries, often impose export share requirements (ESR). That is, firms located in SEZ are required to export more than a certain share of their output to enjoy a wide array of incentives - a practice prohibited by the World Trade Organization's Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. In this paper we exploit the staggered removal of ESR across products and over time in the SEZ of the Dominican Republic - a reform driven by external commitments to comply with WTO disciplines on subsidies - to evaluate how ESR effect export performance at the product- and firmlevel. Using customs data on international trade transactions from the period 2006 to 2014, we find that making the Dominican SEZ regime WTO-compliant made SEZ more attractive locations for exporters to be based in. The reform, however, did not have a significant effect on the country's exports nor on the share of export value originating from SEZ |
| Keywords: | special economic zones; export share requirements; export subsidies; agreement on subsidies and countervailing measures; Dominican Republic |
| JEL: | F12 F13 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86614&r=int |
| By: | Giammario Impullitti; Omar Licandro; Pontus Rendahl |
| Abstract: | We study the gains from trade in an economy with oligopolistic competition, firm heterogeneity, and innovation. Oligopolistic competition together with free entry make markups responsive to firm productivity and trade costs. Lowering trade costs reduces markups on domestic sales but increases markups on export sales, as firms do not pass the entire reduction in trade costs onto foreign consumers. Nevertheless, the downward pressure dominates and the average markup declines, deterring firms from entering the market and leading to higher market concentration. Neither the increased concentration nor the incomplete pass-through of trade costs to export markups are strong enough to compensate for the increase in competition on domestic sales. Thus the overall effect of trade on markups is pro-competitive and a key source of the associated welfare gains. In addition to markups, selection and innovation provide additional channels through which the trade-induced effect on competition impacts welfare. In a quantitative exercise, we decompose the total gains from trade into these three contributing channels; we find that innovation plays a small but non-negligible role, while the main component is equally split between the pro-competitive and the selection channel. |
| Keywords: | gains from trade, heterogeneous firms, oligopoly, innovation, endogenous markups, endogenous market structure. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcfc:18/03&r=int |
| By: | BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen; Aftab, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | Cushman (1986) suggested that impact of exchange rate volatility declines after the inclusion of third country effect. Like Cushman, when we use a linear analysis, we confirm his results. However, when we engage in asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility which requires including nonlinear adjustment of volatility measures, the findings show more support to both exchange rate volatility influence and the third country effect. Therefore, we propose that in examining exchange rate volatility effect on trade, consideration must be given to not just asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility but also asymmetric effects of the third country effect. We demonstrate these findings using monthly data from 54 Malaysian industries that export to the U.S. and 63 Malaysian industries that import from the U.S. |
| Keywords: | Malaysia-US trade, Exchange Rate Volatility, Third-Country Effect, Nonlinear ARDL, Industry Data. |
| JEL: | F1 F3 |
| Date: | 2017–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82997&r=int |
| By: | Ron Alquist; Nicolas Berman; Rahul Mukherjee; Linda Tesar |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how external finance dependence, financial development, and institutions influence brownfield foreign direct investment (FDI). We develop a model of cross-border acquisitions in which the foreign acquirer's choice of ownership structure reflects a trade-off between easing target credit constraints and the costs of operating in an environment of low institutional quality. Using a dataset of cross-border acquisitions in emerging markets, we find evidence supporting the central predictions of the model that: (i) a foreign firm is more likely to fully acquire a target firm in sectors that are more reliant on external finance, or in countries with lower financial development/higher institutional quality; (ii) the level of foreign ownership in partially foreign-owned firms is insensitive to institutional factors and depends weakly on financial factors; (iii) the share of foreign acquisitions in all acquisition activity is also higher in external finance dependent sectors, or financially under-developed/high institutional quality countries; and (iv) sectoral external finance dependence accentuates the effect of country-level financial development and institutional quality. The theory and empirical evidence provide insight into the interaction between the financial, institutional and technological determinants of North-South brown field FDI. |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F36 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24241&r=int |
| By: | Csaba Weiner (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Russian multinationals play an active role in international capital flows, although, over the past decade, two financial crises have interrupted the upward trend of their outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). This paper focuses on the specific characteristics of Russian OFDI and multinationals in general, in particular regarding their presence in the European Union – Russia’s prime export market and the main destination of Russian OFDI – and, more specifically, five EU-member Central and East European states, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Besides official statistics, the research relies on company data gathered to present the activities of Russian multinationals in this region. Among the investment motives, the focus is on home-country push factors, both negative and positive. The paper also asks whether the emergence and presence of Russian multinationals could be explained by using an existing FDI framework. |
| Keywords: | outward foreign direct investment, multinational enterprises, Russia, Europe, Czech Republic,Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia |
| JEL: | D22 F23 M16 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwe:workpr:236&r=int |
| By: | Adagblenya, Barbara Dzidzornu |
| Abstract: | The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) represents a unilateral trade preference between the United States and eligible countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This trade pact, framed under the Generalized System of Preferences of the WTO extends duty-free and quota-free market access to qualified countries. This study seeks to examine the effects of the trade pact on US-Ghana trade. Specifically, it seeks to analyse significant trends in Ghana’s exports to the United States after the enactment of the AGOA Act in 2000. Using primary data obtained through surveys from relevant Ghana government agencies and secondary data from trade organisations including the AGOA website, US Trade department etc. the study analysed and described the effects of the AGOA trade agreement. Results of the study indicated that inherent structural constraints facing Ghanaian exporters, together with limited productive capacities negatively affected the utility of the trade agreement. This limitation reduces significantly the ability of AGOA to influence and reduce poverty as well as positively contribute to growth. The study further noted that uncertainties surrounding expiration of some sections of the agreement hampers long term planning and investments by stakeholders. The writer recommends an aggressive push towards improving exporter capacities, through stakeholder engagement to address challenges inhibiting effective utilization of AGOA trade preferences. This should include investment in productive capacities in order to expand product lines to benefit from existing preferences. Progressive attempts must also focus on sensitizing exporters on US trade rules as well as international trade practices. |
| Keywords: | AGOA, Tariff, General System of Preferences, duty-free, quota-free |
| JEL: | O1 O4 |
| Date: | 2017–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84255&r=int |
| By: | Andreasen, Eugenia; Bauducco, Sofía; Dardati, Evangelina |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of the capital controls imposed by Chile between 1991 and 1998, i.e. the Chilean encaje, on firms' production, investment and exporting decisions. We use a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and financial constraints to illustrate the mechanism by which capital controls on inflows affect firm-level dynamics and international trade. We find that capital controls on inflows depress the local economy due to the credit restriction, reducing aggregate production, investment and domestic sales. This reduced level of domestic activity increases the firm's incentives to export, increasing both the level of exports and the share of exporters. Most of these effects are exacerbated for firms in more capital-intensive sectors. Using data from the Chilean Encuesta Nacional Industrial Anual (ENIA) we empirically corroborate the conclusions and insights of the theoretical model. |
| Keywords: | Comercio internacional, Economía, Finanzas públicas, Sector financiero, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:1153&r=int |
| By: | Arize, Augustine C.; BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen |
| Abstract: | A country is said to live within its international budget constraint if its exports and imports are cointegrated. Previous studies that tried to verify the cointegration between exports and imports used linear models and supported the theory in almost 50% of countries. In this paper, when we use the nonlinear ARDL approach and asymmetry cointegration method, we support the long-run link between imports and exports in 94 out of 100 countries in our sample. This study is not only the most comprehensive study in the literature, but it is also the first to show that, indeed, trade flows adjust in a nonlinear fashion. |
| Keywords: | Imports, Exports, Asymmetry Analysis |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2017–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82807&r=int |
| By: | Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen |
| Abstract: | There is much debate on the impact of product and process standards on trade. The conceptual arguments are complex and empirical evidence is mixed. We analyze the impact of standards and tariffs on the dramatic rise and fall of the raisin trade between France and Greece in the course of 25 years at the end of the 19th century. The case illustrates how product standards can be used to address consumer concerns and to protect producer interests. Economic conditions and French policies first stimulated Greek raisin imports. Later, changing conditions and political pressures led to the introduction of tariffs and wine standards which caused major declines in Greek exports and ultimately the bankruptcy of the Greek economy. Interestingly, this trade episode of more than a century ago still has a regulatory legacy today as it is the origin of the EU’s definition of wine. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:38617&r=int |
| By: | Takam Fongang, Guy Martial; Kamdem, Cyrille Bergaly; Litchepah Tambo, Christian |
| Abstract: | This study uses panel data covering the period from 1984 to 2014, panel cointegration as well as Dynamic Ordinary Least Square method to investigate the effect of trade openness on manufacturing growth in Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (EMCCA) countries. The results reveal two effects. Firstly, there is a positive and significant effect of Foreign Direct Investment and investment on manufacturing growth. Secondly, there is an ambiguous effect of trade openness on manufacturing growth. Indeed, trade openness affects either negatively the manufacturing growth or has no effect on manufacturing growth in EMCCA countries. Whatever the case, EMCCA countries should develop their manufacturing sector before fully trading with foreign countries. |
| Keywords: | Trade openness, Panel Cointegration, Dynamic Ordinary Least Square, Manufacturing growth, EMCCA countries |
| JEL: | F41 F43 O14 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83747&r=int |
| By: | Kaku Attah Damoah (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of Ghana’s WTO accession on firm-level product and labour market imperfections. We exploit a rich dataset of firm-level information to estimate both markups and the degree of monopsony power enjoyed by manufacturing firms. Results suggest that price-cost margins declined, while the degree of monopsony power increased in the wake of WTO accession. These diverging dynamics suggests that firms compress real wages to offset loss of market power in the product market due to increased international competition. This results in an increase of the market imperfection gap, which gradually erodes the pro-competitive gains from trade. The paper contributes to the literature by identifying channels through which allocative inefficiencies and misallocation can persist even after trade liberalisation. |
| Keywords: | Markups, Market Imperfections, Trade Openness, Africa, Ghana |
| JEL: | F13 L11 O14 O24 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2017_15.rdf&r=int |
| By: | Huang, Hanwei; Ju, Jiandong; Yue, Vivian Z. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how changes in factor endowment, technology, and trade costs jointly determine the structural adjustments, which are defined as changes in distributions of production and exports. We document the structural adjustments in Chinese manufacturing firms from 1999 to 2007 and find that production became more capital-intensive while exports did not. We structurally estimate a Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin model with heterogeneous firms to explain this seemingly puzzling pattern. Counterfactual simulations show that capital deepening made Chinese production more capital-intensive, but technology changes that biased toward the labor-intensive sectors and trade liberalizations provided a counterbalancing force |
| Keywords: | structural adjustments; comparative advantage; heterogeneous firm |
| JEL: | F12 L16 |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86601&r=int |
| By: | Alfaro, Laura; Antras, Pol; Chor, David; Conconi, Paola |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, advances in information and communication technology and falling trade barriers have led firms to retain within their boundaries and in their domestic economies only a subset of their production stages. A key decision facing firms worldwide is the extent of control to exert over the different segments of their production processes. We describe a property-rights model of firm boundary choices along the value chain that generalizes Antràs and Chor (2013). To assess the evidence, we construct firmlevel measures of the upstreamness of integrated and non-integrated inputs by combining information on the production activities of firms operating in more than 100 countries with Input-Output tables. In line with the model's predictions, we find that whether a firm integrates upstream or downstream suppliers depends crucially on the elasticity of demand for its final product. Moreover, a firm's propensity to integrate a given stage of the value chain is shaped by the relative contractibility of the stages located upstream versus downstream from that stage, as well as by the firm's productivity. Our results suggest that contractual frictions play an important role in shaping the integration choices of firms around the world |
| Keywords: | global value chains; sequential production; incomplete contracts |
| JEL: | D23 F14 F23 L20 |
| Date: | 2017–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86600&r=int |
| By: | Sampson, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature on the likely economic consequences of Brexit and considers the lessons of the Brexit vote for the future of European and global integration. Brexit will make the United Kingdom poorer because it will lead to new barriers to trade and migration between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Plausible estimates put the costs to the United Kingdom at between 1 and 10 percent of income per capita. Other European Union countries will also suffer economically, but their estimated losses are much smaller. Support for Brexit came from a coalition of less-educated, older, less economically successful and more socially conservative voters. Why these voters rejected the European Union is poorly understood, but will play an important role in determining whether Brexit proves to be merely a diversion on the path to greater international integration or a sign that globalization has reached its limits |
| Keywords: | Brexit; European Union; trade agreements; quantitative trade models; globalization |
| JEL: | F1 F5 |
| Date: | 2017–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86591&r=int |
| By: | Alessandro Olper; Daniele Curzi; Johan Swinnen |
| Abstract: | We study the causal effect of trade liberalization on child mortality by exploiting 41 policy reform experiments in the 1960-2010 period. The Synthetic Control Method for comparative case studies allows to compare at the country level the trajectory of post-reform health outcomes of treated countries (those which experienced trade liberalization) with the trajectory of a combination of similar but untreated countries. In contrast with previous findings, we find that the effect of trade liberalization on health outcomes displays a huge heterogeneity, both in the direction and the magnitude of the estimated effect. Among the 41 investigated cases, 19 displayed a significant reduction in child mortality after trade liberalization. In 19 cases there was no significant effect, while in three cases we found a significant worsening in child mortality after trade liberalization. Trade reforms in democracies, in middle income countries and which reduced taxation in agriculture reduce child mortality more. |
| Keywords: | Trade liberalization, Child Mortality, Synthetic Control Method. |
| JEL: | Q18 O24 O57 I15 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:38717&r=int |
| By: | JaeBin Ahn (Research Department, International Monetary Fund); Moon Jung Choi (Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea) |
| Abstract: | Using the Korean manufacturing firm-level data, this paper confirms that three stylized facts on importing hold in Korea: the ratio of imported inputs in total inputs tends to be pro-cyclical; the use of imported inputs increases productivity; and larger firms are more likely to use imported inputs. As a result, we find that firm-level import decisions explain a non-trivial fraction of aggregate productivity fluctuations in Korea over the period between 2006 and 2012. Main findings of this paper suggest a possible link between the recent global productivity slowdown and the global trade slowdown. |
| Keywords: | Firm-level imports, Productivity pro-cyclicality, Aggregate TFP of manufacturing sector |
| JEL: | E3 F1 F4 O4 |
| Date: | 2016–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bok:wpaper:1606&r=int |
| By: | Ken Coutts; Graham Gudgin; Jordan Buchanan |
| Abstract: | A wide range of reports from official bodies and academics have estimated the impact of Brexit. These influenced the outcome of the Brexit referendum and remain influential in informing views on the potential long-term consequences of a range of Brexit trade arrangements. This paper builds on a previous CBR working paper in examining the most influential of these reports, from HM Treasury, and the OECD. In this paper the work of the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance is also included. Each of these reports base their analyses either on gravity models or a computable general equilibrium models. The addition in this paper a review of the link between trade and productivity, which plays an important role in these reports. We also examine three reports which take a direct approach to measuring the impact by assessing the likely prices increases across a large range of commodities due to the imposition of tariff and non-tariff barriers, and using elasticities to estimate the potential changes in the volume of trade. We find important flaws in both the application of gravity model results to a Brexit context, and in the knock-on impacts from trade to productivity. The flaws always have the result of exaggerating the negative impact of Brexit. The direct approaches involve partial rather than full equilibrium models but provide an important check on results from more complex models. However, the choice of elasticities can result in widely different results from ostensibly similar approaches. The paper starts by looking at the view, supported in the academic literature and widely repeated in the financial media, that accession to the EEC in 1973 improved the economic growth performance of the UK. The evidence suggests that this view is incorrect. |
| Keywords: | Brexit; Gravity Model; computable general equilibrium; HM Treasury; IMF; trade; macroeconomic forecasts; OECD |
| JEL: | C54 E24 E44 H24 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp493&r=int |
| By: | Lorenzo Cei; Gianluca Stefani; Edi Defrancesco; Ginevra Virginia Lombardi (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa) |
| Abstract: | Geographical indications (GIs) are a 25 years old European policy instrument which have, among its objectives, to foster rural development. In this respect, very few studies quantitatively investigate to what extent this policy is effective. Literature is in fact mainly focused on specific GIs, studied through case studies, trying to identify which factors are responsible for the success or failure of specific initiatives. The aim of the present study is instead to quantify the impact of such policy instrument on a single indicator of rural development: agricultural value added. In order to assess the impact we firstly built an index measuring the number of GI schemes implemented at NUTS3 level in the Italian regions. Then, following a difference-in-difference evaluation strategy and relying on an explicit theoretical model, a fixed effect estimator was implemented. The choice of the model, as well as the variables to be considered, is specified using a directed acyclic graph. Results show that an overall positive effect of GI protection on agricultural value added could be identified in Italy, thus providing evidence of a positive impact of the European policy on rural development. |
| Keywords: | geographical indication; impact evaluation; rural development |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2017_14.rdf&r=int |
| By: | Moyo, Clement; Khobai, Hlalefang |
| Abstract: | In spite of the wave of liberalisation studied during the past decades, the debate still remains open on the issue of the trade openness and economic growth nexus. The paper reviews the relationship between trade openness and economic growth for 11 SADC countries for the period between 1990 and 2016. Investments, labour and inflation are incorporated in the model to form a multivariate framework. The study employed the ARDL-bounds test approach and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) model to estimate the long run relationship among the variables. The evidence suggests that co-integration is detected at the 1% level in all countries with the exception of Malawi, Mauritius, Swaziland and Tanzania. Co-integration is only detected at the 10% level in Tanzania while Malawi, Mauritius and Swaziland the null of no co-integration is not rejected. Furthermore, the results revealed trade openness has a negative impact on economic growth in the long-run. |
| Keywords: | Trade Openness, Economic growth, ARDL model, PMG model, SADC |
| JEL: | C01 C13 C33 F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2018–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84254&r=int |
| By: | Minford, Patrick; Xu, Yongdeng |
| Abstract: | We examine the empirical evidence bearing on whether UK trade is governed by a Classical model or by a Gravity model, using annual data from 1965 to 2015 and the method of Indirect Inference which has very large power in this application. The Gravity model here differs from the Classical model in assuming imperfect competition and a positive effect of total trade on productivity. We found that the Classical model passed the test comfortably, and that the Gravity model also passed it but at a rather lower level of probability, though as the test power was raised it was rejected. The two models' policy implications are similar. |
| Keywords: | Bootstrap; classical trade model; gravity model; indirect inference; UK trade |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 F17 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12521&r=int |
| By: | Colin J. Hottman; Ryan Monarch |
| Abstract: | Using supplier-level trade data, we estimate the effect on consumer welfare from changes in U.S. imports both in the aggregate and for different household income groups from 1998 to 2014. To do this, we use consumer preferences which feature non-homotheticity both within sectors and across sectors. After structurally estimating the parameters of the model, using the universe of U.S. goods imports, we construct import price indexes in which a variety is defined as a foreign establishment producing an HS10 product that is exported to the United States. We find that lower income households experienced the most import price inflation, while higher income households experienced the least import price inflation during our time period. Thus, we do not find evidence that the consumption channel has mitigated the distributional effects of trade that have occurred through the nominal income channel in the United States over the past two decades. |
| Keywords: | import price index, non-homotheticity, real income inequality, product variety, markups |
| JEL: | D12 E31 F14 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:18-04&r=int |
| By: | Redding, Stephen; Weinstein, David E. |
| Abstract: | We develop a new framework for aggregating from micro to macro patterns of trade. We derive price indexes that determine comparative advantage across countries and sectors and the aggregate cost of living. If firms and products are imperfect substitutes, we show that these price indexes depend on variety, average demand/quality and the dispersion of demand/quality-adjusted prices, and are only weakly related to standard empirical measures of average prices, thereby providing insight for elasticity puzzles. Of the cross-section (time-series) variation in comparative advantage, 50 (90) percent is accounted for by variety and average demand/quality, with average prices contributing less than 10 percent |
| Keywords: | comparative advantage; trade; prices; quality; variety |
| JEL: | F11 F12 F14 |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86607&r=int |
| By: | Jean-Christophe Bureau; Thorsten Rogall |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews evidence on the impact of EU policies on global food security, focusing on four EU policy areas: agricultural policy, bioenergy policy, trade policy, and development (food aid) policy. Old concerns related to the detrimental impact of EU farm subsidies, food aid and tariffs on poor countries’ food security. New concerns relate to impacts of EU food standards and bioenergy policies. The EU policies which created the largest distortions on global markets (in the area of trade, agriculture, food aid, and bioenergy) have been bstantially reformed over the past decades. Recent global food price fluctuations have also re-emphasized that the impact of EU policies on the poor’s food security differ depending on whether these are consumers or producers, or whether countries are exporters or importers. Overall, our review explains that in many areas the impact of EU policies on global food security is less obvious and more complex than often argued. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:39217&r=int |
| By: | Boehm, Johannes; Dhingra, Swati; Morrow, John |
| Abstract: | The presence of global value chains challenges the neoclassical idea of the firm since it implies firms are not monolithic but are rather interdependent on the larger economic environment. Examining establishments, the smallest units of production within firms, sheds light on the microeconomic incentives determining the location of production and whether a firm produces a good or sources it. Most work on multiproduct firms looks at developed countries, but constraints on firm growth are greater in developing economies. We examine multiproduct establishments in India during a high growth period. Multiproduct establishments made up the bulk of manufacturing production, and their product turnover contributed 28 per cent to net sales growth. Unlike the nineties which witnessed drastic liberalization, establishments in the two-thousands dropped products at rates similar to those for the US. Sales dispersion across products also predicts product addition |
| Keywords: | multiproduct firms; product adoption; product diversity |
| JEL: | L1 L2 M2 O3 |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86603&r=int |
| By: | Hansman, Christopher; Hjort, Jonas; Le�n, Gianmarco; Teachout, Matthieu |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between exporters' organizational structure and output quality. If only input quantity is observable, theory predicts that vertical integration may be necessary to incentivize suppliers to increase input quality. Using data on suppliers' behavior, supplier ownership, supply transactions, and manufacturers' output by quality grade and exports from the Peruvian fishmeal industry, we show the following. After integrating with the plant being supplied and losing access to alternative pay-per-kilo buyers, suppliers take more quality-increasing and less quantity-increasing actions. Integration consequently causally increases output quality, and manufacturers integrate suppliers when facing high relative demand for high quality grades. |
| JEL: | D2 O1 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12518&r=int |
| By: | Judit Kiss (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Since 1994 South Africa has been successfully reintegrated into the world economy and has become a capital exporter country. The main carriers of outward FDI are South African multinationals which are not newcomers in the international arena as they started to be internationalised earlier than other emerging markets' MNEs. Their investment decisions are mainly driven by home country push factors fuelled by the economic, social and political legacy of the apartheid regime, however, market, efficiency and strategic asset seeking strategies also play a role. Efficiency seeking motives are expected to become stronger leading to increasing international orientation, development of alliances and networks outside of the country. Though the main destinations of FDI outflow are traditionally the European countries, especially the UK, the Sub-Saharan African region is a developing location as South Africa is aspiring for regional hegemony. |
| Keywords: | FDI, internationalisation, South African MNEs |
| JEL: | F21 F23 P45 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwe:workpr:235&r=int |
| By: | Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the impact of the Russian food and agricultural import ban on import of meat, the structural changes of trade pattern and reallocation of import flows of meat and meat products, and the price development in the import market and its impact on producers and consumers market for cattle, pork and poultry meat in the Russian Federation (RF). There is empirical evidence that the collapse of meat exports to Russia and, hence, the increase of meat prices happened even long before the import ban was introduced. The structure of Russian import market for meat has significantly changed. Brazil became the largest meat exporter in the Russian meat import market achieving market share in the total meat import of the RF almost 50% in 2015-2016. The structural changes of the Russian import market suggests that the beef and pork exporters are not price-takers on the one hand. On the other hand, they may be able to discriminate prices in the Russian import markets. |
| Keywords: | import ban,meat export,market structure,pricing,Russia,Importverbot,Fleischexport,Marktstruktur,Preisbildung,Russland |
| JEL: | Q11 Q17 L11 L13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:170&r=int |
| By: | Sei-Wan Kim (Department of Economics, Ewha Woman's University); Moon Jung Choi (Economic Research Institute, The Bank of Korea) |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on the relationship between bilateral trade and stock market performance over Asia-Pacific region. Using three regional blocs in Asia-Pacific region – the Far Eastern bloc, the Chinese bloc, and the Australian bloc, we examine two main questions: whether trade linkages between countries affect stock returns of trading partners and whether stock markets of trading partners are interdependent. By incorporating two distinct dynamic properties of regime shifting and cointegration in intra-regional trade and stock market index, we employ a newly suggested multi-variable smooth transition autoregressive vector error correction model (STAR-VECM). A series of STAR-based tests reveals the evidence that bilateral trade significantly Granger-causes stock returns in Asia-Pacific region with the effect varying over regime changes. Among three blocs, Far Eastern bloc displays the most pronounced complementary relationship between trade growth and stock returns compared to other blocs. We also find evidence of stock market synchronization within each region. |
| Keywords: | Stock market synchronization, Regional trade, Regime change, Smooth transition autoregressive model |
| JEL: | F15 G14 C40 C51 |
| Date: | 2016–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bok:wpaper:1611&r=int |
| By: | Chang, Pao-Li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a theory to characterize the comparative advantage of South-based MNEs rooted in `informal institutions'. MNEs hea dquartered in countries of poorer state institutions are theorized to invest more in firm-specific institutional capital to compensate for the lack of state institutions, and as an optimal response, undertake FDI in countries of weaker institutions, relative to another MNE of the same characteristics except their country of origin. At the aggregate, MNEs generate more net profits in countries of weaker institutions, the poorer the institutional environment at home. This assortative matching in the institutional qualities of FDI origins and destinations are tested extensively using bilateral FDI stocks (and flows) for 219 economies in years 2001-2010. The results indicate a statistically significant (and robust) institutional complementary effect in bilateral FDI activities. |
| Keywords: | Informal Institution; Foreign Direct Investment; Gravity Equation |
| JEL: | D02 D21 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2018–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2018_004&r=int |
| By: | David Jaeger (CUNY Graduate Center); Joakim Ruist (University of Gothenburg); Jan Stuhler (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | A large literature exploits geographic variation in the concentration of immigrants to identify their impact on a variety of outcomes. To address the endogeneity of immigrants’ location choices, the most commonly-used instrument interacts national inflows by country of origin with immigrants’ pastgeographic distribution. We present evidence that estimates based on this “shift-share†instrument conflate the short- and long-run responses to immigration shocks. If the spatial distribution of immigrant inflows is stable over time, the instrument is likely to be correlated with ongoing responses to previous supply shocks. Estimates based on the conventional shift-share instrument are therefore unlikely to identify the short-run causal effect. We propose a “multiple instrumentation†procedure that isolates the spatial variation arising from changes in the country-of-origin composition at the national level and permits us to estimate separately the short- and long-run effects. Our results are a cautionary tale for a large body of empirical work, not just on immigration, that rely on shift-share instruments for causal inference. |
| JEL: | C36 J15 J21 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1802&r=int |
| By: | Donato Romano; Silvio Traverso (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the linkages between international migration and household food and nutrition security (FNS) from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. First, building on the limited previous literature, the paper develops a unifying conceptual framework for identifying the main microeconomic channels through which international migration can affect household FNS. Second, adopting an encompassing definition of migrant households and using Bangladesh as case-study, it estimates the overall impact of international migration on household FNS. Third, by disentangling the overall effect, the paper assesses the importance of the various microeconomic channels, i.e. the change in the household structure, overseas remittances and the presence of returned migrants. The empirical strategy is based on a multiple treatment counterfactual framework, using a linearized propensity score matching technique. On the one hand, the estimates indicate that international migration has a positive impact on all FNS dimensions, allowing households to consume more food, to have access to more expensive food products and to shift towards a more diversified diet, richer in foods and micronutrients. On the other hand, the disentanglement of the impact corroborates the validity of the conceptual framework and supports the conclusion that the average effect of international migration on household FNS through all the identified microeconomic channels is always non-negative. Finally, the paper contributes to the literature on the so-called ‘Bangladesh paradox’ suggesting that international migration may have contributed to the exceptional progress in health and nutrition achieved by Bangladesh during a period of relatively poor economic growth. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2017_12.rdf&r=int |
| By: | JaeBin Ahn (Research Department, International Monetary Fund); Chang-Gui Park (Economic Research Team, Daejeon & Chungnam Branch, the Bank of Korea); Chanho Park (International Finance Division, International Department, the Bank of Korea) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by stylized facts pointing to a dominant role of imported inputs in transmitting external price shocks to domestic prices, this paper zooms in to study the pass-through of imported input costs to domestic producer prices. Our approach constructs effective input price indices from sector-level price data combined with sector-level information on input-output linkages. Applying an error correction model specification to sector-level output and input prices, the long-run pass-through rate of effective imported input costs to domestic producer prices is estimated to be around 70 percent in Korea and almost 100 percent in selected European countries. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate pass-through, Imported input cost pass-through, Inflation |
| JEL: | E3 F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2016–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bok:wpaper:1602&r=int |
| By: | Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the question of why so many African firms are uncompetitive on the global stage. An integrated framework of firm-level and external factors was developed. This paper focuses primarily on the global airline industry and offers an array of external factors including slow implementation of the Yamoussoukro Declaration and protection of state-owned airlines, which have historically distorted the nature of competition and hampered the exposure of many airlines to “genuine” or fair competition. When shielded from competition, such firms’ ability to transition to the global stage and outwit rivals is hampered. Furthermore, the study indicates that internal factors such as limited economies of scale and poor quality of services have affected some of the firms’ ability to compete. With the notable of exception of airlines such as Ethiopian Airlines, South African Airways and Kenya Airways, the preponderance of airlines have struggled to compete. These factors help to account for the fact that African airlines equate to only 20% of all air traffic on inter-African routes. The implications of the findings are examined. |
| Keywords: | Airlines; Africa; Africa’s Competitiveness |
| JEL: | L1 L2 L5 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83933&r=int |
| By: | Fatemah, Ambreen; Qayyum, Abdul |
| Abstract: | This study is an empirical investigation to Export led Growth hypothesis (1971-2016) in case of Pakistan by applying cointegration analysis and dynamic error correction mechanism. The study proves that the exports are important and significant determinant of economic growth in Pakistan. The analysis also reveals that the exports along with labor force, investment and Domestic credit to private sector ratio are important for the long-run as well as short run economic growth of Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Exports led Growth, Cointegration, Dynamic Error Correction, Pakistan |
| JEL: | C32 F1 O4 O40 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83929&r=int |
| By: | Timothy J Hatton; Zachary Ward |
| Abstract: | This chapter focuses on the economic analysis of what has been called the age of mass migration, 1850 to 1913, and its aftermath up to 1940. This has captured the interest of generations of economic historians and is still a highly active area of research. Here we concentrate on migration from Europe to the New World as this is where the bulk of the literature lies. We provide an overview of this literature focusing on key topics: the determinants of migration, the development of immigration policy, immigrant selection and assimilation, and the economic effects of mass migration as well as its legacy through to the present day. We explain how what were once orthodoxies have been revisited and revised, and how changes in our understanding have been influenced by advances in methodology, which in turn have been made possible by the availability of new and more comprehensive data. Despite these advances some issues remain contested or unresolved and, true to cliometric tradition, we conclude by calling for more research. |
| Keywords: | Mass migration; the Atlantic economy; immigrants and emigrants. |
| JEL: | N31 N32 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:063&r=int |