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on International Trade |
| By: | Emlinger, Charlotte; Guimbard, Houssein |
| Abstract: | Protectionist instruments such as tariffs can distort the prices of traded goods. This paper explores the impact of specific (per-unit) duties on patterns of agricultural trade. Specific duties may encourage countries to export higher priced products, leading to an “Alchian-Allen effect” on unit values. Their restrictive effect on trade values is smaller for developed compared to developing countries. It can be explained by the specialization of these countries on low-priced products and by the low level of quality differentiation among their exports. Our results highlight the discriminating nature of specific duties for low-income countries. |
| Keywords: | specific duties, agricultural trade, developing countries, trade unit values, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160381&r=int |
| By: | Rau, Mari-Luise; Aikaterini, Kavallari |
| Abstract: | Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have widely spread in recent years. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) notes that 546 RTAs were notified by January 2013, whereas only 380 were notified by 2007. RTAs have been considered as a stumbling block for the slow progress of the WTO Doha Round, and multilateral liberalisation is said to cause erosion of preferences enjoyed under bilateralism. That is, third country exporters that benefit from multilateral trade liberalization increase their exports, whereas the preferential suppliers in bilateral trade agreements face a decrease of their exports, given the substitutability between export products from different countries. Preference erosion also occurs when countries take up new bilateral trade agreements that can result in “old” trade partner countries losing their preferential treatment. The European Union (EU) has granted preferential market access to a large number of countries and is by far the main trading partner of its neighbouring countries, including Mediterranean partner countries (MED countries). Following the Association Agreements with the EU, there have been efforts of enhanced engagement and co-operation, especially after the Arab spring developments, but negotiations for so called free and comprehensive trade agreements (DCFTAs) are also under way with other partner countries. The objective of this paper is to look into possible preference erosion effects from the perspective of MED countries by depicting recent EU trade agreements as well as multilateral trade liberalisation in a simulation analysis. We apply the MAGNET (Modular Applied General Equilibrium Tool) model that builds upon the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model in a recursive dynamic general equilibrium framework, with a reference scenario that reflects the economic and population growth paths via most recent projections taken from the literature. |
| Keywords: | preference erosion, Mediterranean partner countries, trade liberalisation, DCFTAs, CGE modelling, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160394&r=int |
| By: | Donatella Baiardi; Carluccio Bianchi; Eleonora Lorenzini |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationships between export price and income elasticities, average unit values (AUVs) and market shares for the top world food exporters in the time period 1992-2011 using a panel data framework. Emerging countries and Spain show a high price elasticity unlike other advanced countries. Moreover, an inverse relationship between price elasticities and AUVs is found to exist. The overall analysis enables the conclusion that advanced countries can maintain a specialization in low-tech sectors only if high prices, as indicators of high quality, are accompanied by a rigid foreign demand and a satisfactory income elasticity of exports. |
| Keywords: | Food Exports, Price elasticity, Income elasticity, Panel Granger causality |
| JEL: | F14 L66 Q17 C23 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:262&r=int |
| By: | Stojanovic, Zaklina; Mitrovic, Radmila Dragutinovic; Petrovic, Ivana Popovic |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper is to investigate Serbian food trade in the process of EU integration, particularly the effects of EU Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and CEFTA integration on Serbian food exports. We analyse the developments in Serbian food trade flows from various aspects: the importance and growth of overall food exports and net-exports, intra-regional (with CEFTA) and extra-regional trade (with EU), as well as trade competiveness of Serbian food trade related to its most important foreign trade markets. In spite of the fact that total export from Serbia recorded decrease during the last decade, especially after the Great economic crisis, the Serbian food exports did not follow the same pattern. That points out the importance of the food trading, especially during the crisis. The food trading is the only sector that one country continuously can count on in the world trade, and the main reason for this conclusion we can find in the real nature of this sector – food sector produces goods for human diet as an existential need. |
| Keywords: | food, trade, competitiveness, RCA, RTB, Serbia, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160512&r=int |
| By: | Božić, Dragica; Nikolić, Marija M. |
| Abstract: | The processes of economic transformation and integration in which Serbia is included (gaining membership in the WTO and the EU), are accompanied by significant liberalization of markets, including the market of agricultural products, which causes certain changes in the size, structure and mode of foreign trade. Foreign trade regime of Serbian agrarian products is being harmonized to the requirements of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in anticipation of acquiring the status of member, as well as the Stabilisation and Association Agreement between Serbia and the EU and CEFTA-2006, whose members are the most important trade partners of our country. Trade liberalization and the growing international market of agricultural and food products represent an opportunity to promote exports of agrarian products from Serbia, but also opening of the market might seem a serious threat to some of our agricultural products and affect the change of production structure, where agricultural policy makers should pay special attention. The aim of this paper is to perform a regional analysis of foreign trade of agricultural and food products from Serbia with key trading partners such as EU, CEFTA-2006, and especially with some of its members for the period 2004-2011. In order to gain insight into the degree of integration of the Serbian agricultural sector in the markets of these countries, Grubel-Lloyd index of intra-industry trade (GLIIT) is calculated, which indicate the intensity and the level of intra-industry trade, implying mutual – bilateral exchange (import and export) of similar or identical products between regions (countries). A higher degree of integration on the markets of certain countries indicates the possibility of easier adjustment to the conditions of liberalization (and lower cost) because certain products are already present on them. Performed analysis provides insight into the potential consequences of further liberalization on the development of the agrarian sector and expected structural adjustments. Calculated GLIIT index for different groups of agricultural and food products and for individual countries are considerably different and vary in the observed period, but in general the level of intraindustry trade between Serbia and its leading trade partners (especially the EU) is low, indicating a low integration of agrarian sector of Serbia on these markets. |
| Keywords: | Foreign trade, agricultural and food products, region analysis, intra industry trade, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160374&r=int |
| By: | Himics, Mihaly; Britz, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | With the Doha Round of negotiations having come to a standstill, more countries opt for preferential trade agreements with only a limited number of partners. Starting two recent negotiations, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the EU-US trade deal, might mark the beginning of a new era in multilateral trade negotiations in a sense that they connect the largest but geographically distant players of the world market. The impact of preferential agreements on welfare and trade patterns has been subject to economic investigation for decades. Applied equilibrium models are key analytical tools in the ex ante assessment of trade negotiations, but are often criticized as being sensitive with regard to underlying assumptions and input data. For trade related impact assessment, assumptions relating to the aggregation and presentation of border protection instruments are of specific interest. This study contributes to the assessment of equilibrium modelling techniques with a focus on tariff rate quotas (TRQ) by systematically comparing simulated impacts on traded volumes and welfare under different implementation of TRQs. In the equilibrium modelling literature TRQ instruments are either modelled explicitly (linking the variable tariff rate and the fill rate of the quota threshold) or transformed into an ad valorem equivalent (AVE) tariff rate. In the standard Vinerian framework of welfare analysis, trade diversion occurs when imports from low cost producers in the rest of the world are displaced by exporters benefitting from trade preferences. The simulated shift in imports in an equilibrium model depends on the third country policy representation. With binding tariff rate quotas in the initial point, for example, shifts in traded volumes will be significantly different if the TRQ instrument is modelled explicitly or by its AVE tariff rate. This study demonstrates the sensitivity of simulated results by both developing a simple three country model of international trade and by implementing an illustrative EU-US trade deal scenario with the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impacts (CAPRI) modelling system. The focus is on whether the choice of modelling TRQ instruments with third countries explicitly or by their AVE tariff rates has a significant impact on simulation results. In default, most policy instruments in CAPRI – including border protection and market intervention mechanisms – are modelled explicitly. Tariffs subject to quota limits are approximated with a smooth function mimicking the switching mechanism between preferential and out of quota rates. For the sake of this study this mechanism is optionally replaced with the AVE representation. CAPRI is then calibrated under both TRQ representations and the results of the same trade deal scenario are compared. |
| Keywords: | tariff rate quota, CAPRI, trade diversion, EU-US trade deal, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160383&r=int |
| By: | Doucha, Tomáš; Pohlová, Karina |
| Abstract: | The development of the Czech agricultural trade after EU accession in 2004 is a reflexion of changing trade conditions (especially the entry on the EU single market and taking over the EU commitments to the WTO), effectiveness of the Czech agriculture and food industry. The main characteristics of the changes are the growth of the negative trade balance, a substantial increase of the trade turnover with EU countries to the detriment of the third countries and the growth of exports of agricultural raw materials accompanied with the growth of imports of more processed products. The main cause is the orientation of the Czech agriculture on products with a lower demand on labour quantity and quality and on simpler technologies, together with a lower effectiveness of domestic primary processors. Besides the global trade indicators, this development is documented by selected RCA indicators. |
| Keywords: | agricultural trade, Czech Republic, EU single market, agriculture, food industry, effectiveness, revealed comparative advantage, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160380&r=int |
| By: | Banović, Marija; Ševarlić, Miladin M. |
| Abstract: | Meat market has always had a special attention due to repeating crises and confidence breakdowns. Even though global meat trade has grown in the past decades, driven mainly by gains in poultry and pig meat originating from developing regions, many countries that produce and consume meat still remain disconnected by trade. Trade barriers, as sanitary and protectionist standards, have heavily influenced meat market. Sanitary standards related to animal diseases, food safety concerns and health issue awareness mostly identify those countries that are “free” and those that are “not free” of potential risks. Although sanitary barriers can inhibit trade flows they protect against the spread of serious diseases and other risks that can break animal production. On the other hand, protectionist barriers in the form of tariffs and tariff-rate quotas designed as domestic support may distort international markets and prevent significant potential trade in meats. The EU occupies an important position in the world meat market due to its export performance drawn from subsidies and sanitary and protection barriers that have been the focus of strong criticism by some developed and developing countries, among others. The Doha round has had an ambitious call in lowering protectionist barriers and achieving substantial improvements in market access and reductions of export subsidies and in tradedistorting domestic support. Yet, major protectionist barriers linger even so and the average global meat tariffs are higher than the average tariffs for other agricultural goods. Furthermore, these developments in trade liberalization and market access seem not to be only precondition for trade to occur as well as only answer to meat crisis. |
| Keywords: | EU meat market, Doha Round, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160371&r=int |
| By: | Simone Bertoli (University of Auvergne and CNRS); Hillel Rapoport (Paris School of Economics and Bar-Ilan University) |
| Abstract: | A growing number of OECD countries are leaning toward adopting quality-selective immigration policies. The underlying assumption behind such policies is that more skill-selection should raise immigrants' average quality (or education level). This view tends to neglect two important dynamic effects: the role of migration networks, which could reduce immigrants' quality, and the responsiveness of education decisions to the prospects of migration. Our model shows that migration networks and immigrants' quality can be positively associated under a set of sufficient conditions regarding the degree of selectivity of immigration policies, the initial pattern of migrants' self-selection on education, and the way time-equivalent migration costs by education level relate to networks. The results imply that the relationship between networks and immigrants' quality should vary with the degree of selectivity of immigration policies at destination. Empirical evidence presented as background motivation for this paper suggests at this is indeed the case. |
| Keywords: | migration, self-selection, brain drain, immigration policy, discrete choice models |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J61 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1330&r=int |
| By: | Hübler, Michael; Glas, Alexander |
| Abstract: | We hypothesize that North-South trade is associated with knowledge spillovers that create labor productivity gains depending on various determinants of Southern absorptive capacity. We use the novel World Input-Output Database (WIOD) that provides bilateral and bisectoral panel data for 39 countries and 35 sectors for 1995-2009. We examine growth in relative South-North labor intensities (South-North convergence) for 31 industrialized source and eight emerging recipient countries. We find robust evidence that the following measures of absorptive capacity (ordered by magnitude of the estimated coefficients) interact with imports so that relative labor intensity is reduced: economic freedom and political and civil rights, services, skills, scientific publications and patents as well as telephone and internet access. GMM and GLS estimations corroborate the results. Policies that support various of the identified determinants of absorptive capacity are more promising than policies that select only one. Elevating the absorptive capacity of emerging economies to the maximum level in the world would halve the South-North gap in labor intensities within a couple of decades if it were solely achieved through the trade channel. -- |
| Keywords: | absorptive capacity,labor intensity,trade,South-North,convergence |
| JEL: | C23 F18 F21 O13 O33 O47 Q43 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13102&r=int |
| By: | Martín Tobal (Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a model of trade in final goods that differ in skill-intensity and intermediate tasks that differ in tradability. A skill -abundant country whose final goods productivity is high relative to the rest of the world is shown to import (more unskilled tasks than skilled tasks, given identical tradability schedules for the latter and the former |
| Keywords: | Offshoring; ICT Revolution and Labor Tasks. |
| JEL: | F16 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cml:docinv:11&r=int |
| By: | Espinosa, Alexandra M. |
| Abstract: | Under general conditions, it has been proved that free trade improves the welfare of open economies. However, the conditions to attain the free trade equilibrium are non trivial: when the productive process is planned, industries do not know the price that will prevail, while the production is not available in the world markets, generating a “general price uncertainty” due to the time–consuming nature of productive process. Consequently, additional assumptions is required to construct the time path driving economies from the autarky to the free trade. Thus, we assume commitment of trade and continuum of goods with the aim of handle with such a problems. This paper finds the general conditions for a smooth time path stable, monotonic and that guarantees a successful process of liberalization. |
| Keywords: | Ricardo–Mill model, general equilibria, dynamic models, dynamic welfare |
| JEL: | C02 F11 F15 F22 I32 |
| Date: | 2013–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52181&r=int |
| By: | João Barata R. B. Barroso |
| Abstract: | Does international trade shrink the steady state measure of domestic firms? The most recent models with heterogeneous firms suggest it does (Melitz (2003), Chaney (2007) and Arkolakis (2008)). The main force at work in such models is the selection of the fittest, with the least efficient firms exiting the market. Within the same class of models with heterogeneous firm productivity and strong selection effects, both in the consumption goods and the intermediate goods sectors, this paper shows that the measure of domestic firms may actually expand. The result is robust to the particular production function used to bundle labor and intermediate goods |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:332&r=int |
| By: | Suleymanov, Elchin; Zeynalov, Ayaz; Mammadov, Rufat |
| Abstract: | In this article, the export multiplicity of Azerbaijan Republic has been analyzed during 1995-2009. Firstly, the relationship between GDP on CPI has been estimated and it found as a positive and meaningful. Secondly, the effect of GDP on Net export has been estimated, where these two findings allow us to estimate the export multiplicity of Azerbaijan Republic. The export multiplicity of Azerbaijan Republic found as a 0.9, where it emphasize that effect of GDP on net export is meaningful and strong with including the effect of real effective exchange rate on net export. |
| Keywords: | export multiplicity, net export, consumer price, and real effective exchange rate |
| JEL: | F12 F16 F18 F21 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52306&r=int |
| By: | Karapinar, Baris; Tanaka, Tetsuji |
| Abstract: | In recent years, international grain markets have been exposed to considerable price volatility which was partly caused by supply shocks driven by extreme climate events affecting major grain exporters. In addition, a number of exporting countries resorted to distortive trade measures in the form of export restrictions which have led to additional shortages, undermining the reliability of the world trading system. Recent climate studies suggest that climate changeinduced extreme events are likely to increase yield fluctuations. As trade volumes are also projected to increase, export restrictions constitute a systemic threat to the security of the global food supply. However, WTO rules and regulations on export restrictions are lenient, offering ample ‘policy space’ to member countries. In this context, this paper explores the potential welfare implications of productivity shocks and consequent export restrictions imposed on rice. We use a world trade stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with the Monte Carlo method, taking into account risk factors in the form of a wide range of productivity shocks to world rice supplies. Our findings suggest that welfare losses that are likely to be caused by increased yield variability, due to climate change or other factors, are expected to grow substantially if countries react to productivity shocks by imposing export restrictions. Losses incurred by rice importing countries in Asia and Africa are expected to be particularly high. The paper links these results to potential WTO reform initiatives aiming at improving world food supply stability under future uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160387&r=int |
| By: | Sara Formai (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a general equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous firms and imperfect credit markets. To finance the costs for product innovation and domestic and foreign market entry, firms must raise external capital. The model underscores the importance of considering a general equilibrium setting in order to characterize fully the misallocations of resources that stem from the existence of credit frictions. These have important implications for firms' entry decisions in the different markets and for the welfare effects of imperfect financial institutions. Allowing for liquidity-constrained firms and imperfect credit markets alters, and in some cases reverses, some of the main results from the literature on heterogeneous firms. In particular, the model predicts that trade liberalization does not necessarily lead to an increase in average productivity and consumers' welfare. |
| Keywords: | consumer welfare, credit frictions, heterogeneous firms, market entry, trade liberalization |
| JEL: | F12 F36 G20 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_940_13&r=int |
| By: | Boulanger, Pierre; Ferrari, Emanuele; Michalek, Jerzy; Philippidis, George; Vinyes, Cristina |
| Abstract: | Croatia joined the European Union (EU) on July 1st, 2013. This paper assesses the likely effects of this accession on the agricultural and food sectors, and analyses the impact on the EU, Croatia and their main trading partners. It considers both the harmonization of Croatia's trade instruments with those applied in the EU, and the adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The analysis is carried out using MAGNET, a global recursive dynamic CGE model. Results show that Croatia slightly benefits from its accession to the EU with an increase in GDP, whereas the impact on the EU-27's GDP is insignificant. Total exports of Croatian agricultural products increase by 7.4% and those of food products decrease by 2%. Croatia will face some changes in its production structure. At constant prices, agricultural production benefits (increasing by 1.1%), whereas food production contracts (decreasing by 5.5%). This result sheds some light on competitiveness limitations of the Croatian food processing industry. The scope of this paper is to model both European trade and agricultural policies. It is worth mentioning that other EU policies such as the structural or cohesion policies, and additional gains resulting from the accession such as a less risky investment environment or a more efficient regulatory framework, are not modelled. |
| Keywords: | CGE, European integration, agricultural policy, agricultural trade, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160373&r=int |
| By: | Brankov, Tatjana Papić; Lovre, Koviljko |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the mechanisms by which World Trade Organization (WTO) influence the diffusion of genetically modified (GM) products. We have analyzed the connection between the international trade of GM products and the three WTO Agreements: the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). It can be concluded that the mechanisms of the WTO organization are often used as instruments of threat to nations seeking to ban imports of GM food. In failing to acknowledge and support the precautionary principle, the WTO may have further weakened its authority to make decisions affecting the human health and environment and, in so doing, lessened its legitimacy in the world arena. |
| Keywords: | WTO, GM products, TRIPS, SPS, GATS, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160376&r=int |
| By: | Tomić, Danilo; Popović, Vesna; Tandir, Nataša |
| Abstract: | In the frame of EU Stabilization and Association Process, Serbia and EU signed Stabilization and Association Agreements (SAA) in 2008, with Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as one of its main parts. SAA Interim Agreement entered in the fifth year of the transitional period ending on January 1, 2014. Serbia got already (2000) non-reciprocal duty-free access to the EU market for nearly all agricultural products. In imports, Serbia committed to abolish/reduce tariffs, lowering average agricultural tariff from 22% to 2.49%. In the paper, the authors focus on the effects of SAA import liberalization and the future import trends in the key sectors of Serbian agriculture analyzing: • structure of agricultural tariffs and import values in 2012, compared to base 2008 year, according to the different models of liberalization, • agricultural trade flows with the EU in the period 2010-2012 compared to total agricultural trade, and some of supply chains, potentially most affected by liberalization process. The results should provide an assessment of the agriculture adjustment level to SAA requirements and evaluation of the SAA trade creation/diversion effects. |
| Keywords: | SAA, import liberalization, integration potentials, Serbian agriculture, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160514&r=int |
| By: | Milanović, Milan R.; Stevanović, Simo; Radojević, Vuk |
| Abstract: | Because of big internal differences in the production-resource structure, the former uniform Yugoslav market was characterized by intensive inter-republic trade. Given the controlled prices of agrarian products, their internal trade was frequently referred to as an example of non-equivalent exchange. After the violent secession and disintegration of the common country, the agrarian trade balances of the former republics and their positions in foreign trade essentially began to change. The relative changes of the agrarian-export positions of the republics/states are gained an insight into in the context of the market structure and the agrarian potentials of the former shared environment and the current new one. At the same time, we are comparatively analyzing the market structure and relations within the three status/systemically completely different conditions of these countries for the duration of an almost two-and-ahalf- decade-long period (from 1988 to 2010), namely: (1) the pre-transition position on the uniform market; (2) the transition period after the disintegration of the common state, and (3) the post-transition period of independence. The sectoral significance of the agrarian market is assessed via an analysis of the share of agrarian trade turnover in total foreign-trade turnover, as well as the movement of the net balance of agrarian trade, while positional changes in the spatial structure of the total and agrarian export and import are being gained an insight into via the relative share of some countries in the total trade turnover of the ex-YU market countries. Utilizing specific analytical methods, such a way to analyze the transition dynamic and structural changes of the agro-food sector in foreign trade offers a possibility of the identifying and objectivizing of the comparative advantage and export potentials of the agrarian foreign trade of these countries. The remarks and assessments derived on that basis are indicative of the consequences of the disintegration of the former uniform Yugoslav agrarian market. |
| Keywords: | Ex-Yu countries’ market, agrarian export, agrarian import, foreign-trade balance, sectoral and spatial structure, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160389&r=int |
| By: | Haupt, Alexander; Krieger, Tim; Lange, Thomas |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse how increasing student migration from a less developed to a developed country alters education policy in the developed country, and how it affects human capital and welfare in the two countries. We argue that a higher permanent migration probability, i.e., a higher probability that international students continue to stay in their host country after graduation, incentivises the host country to improve its education quality. A higher education quality in turn raises the human capital of all students, including returning students. As long as the permanent migration probability is not too large, this positive quality effect increases human capital and welfare in both the less developed country (LDC) and the developed host country. Thus, a brain gain to the LDC occurs. A decline in the taxes on labour income in the two countries can reinforce this brain gain, although the developed country then raises the tuition fees. -- |
| Keywords: | brain gain,education,human capital,mobility,return migration |
| JEL: | F22 I28 H52 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wgspdp:201305&r=int |
| By: | Listorti, Giulia; Tonini, Axel; Kempen, Makus; Adenauer, Marcel |
| Abstract: | Import tariffs are typically defined at a very detailed level, which is then used in trade negotiations. The WTO Framework Agreement of July 2004 proposes the use of a “tiered” formula where tariff lines classified in higher ‘bands’ are subject to proportionally higher cuts. Exceptions to the general rule, like sensitive products, are also defined at the tariff line level. Despite the relevance of tariff structure on trade liberalization, computable partial or general equilibrium models usually represent more aggregated products. In this respect, the literature suggests that market models can be combined with detailed tariff modules. We propose a new methodology to more accurately aggregate tariffs from the tariff line level to the one required by computable equilibrium models. The Tariff Reduction Impact Model for Agriculture (TRIMAG) uses the highest possible level of disaggregation (8 digits) and allows implementing tariff cuts and deriving the domestic price drops foreseen by alternative trade policy scenarios. Aggregated tariffs are derived by considering the substitutability effects in consumption between the tariff lines corresponding to the same aggregate product. We incorporate the tariff aggregates of TRIMAG resulting from a WTO agreement into the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) partial equilibrium model. Differences between the standard tariff aggregation of CAPRI and the newly implemented methodology are illustrated. Results show that, when tariff cuts are applied at the 8 digit level, whether the substitution in consumption between tariff lines will result in a lower or higher aggregate tariff cut than the one that should directly be applied to the aggregate product is an empirical question. The selection of a limited number of sensitive tariff lines, if their share in the consumption bundle is high, might significantly raise the tariff for the corresponding aggregated product. |
| Keywords: | WTO agricultural negotiations, tariff aggregation, linking models, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160388&r=int |
| By: | Vlahović, Branislav; Puškarić, Anton; Tomašević, Dejan |
| Abstract: | Knowing international market is a basis for segmentation and making right and timely marketing decisions regarding wine export. In this piece, we have analized the international wine market, and determined changes in international turnover, with largest importers and exporters for the period of 2001 - 2011. The average wine export in the world was 8,4 tons, with a growth tendency of 5,0% per year. Converted in money, the average export amounted to 22 billion US Dollars, which makes wine one of the most valuable of all agricultural products. The largest exporter is Italy with 1,8 million tons (21% of the whole world's turnover). Italy's wine export is increasinf at the rate of 4,14% per year. Large exporters are also France, Spain, Australia and Chile, which all amount to two thirds (68%) of the world's wine export. Besides France, whose export is decreasing, all of the abovementioned countries have increased their wine export to the international market. World's import is growing a bit slower than the export. It is a sign of a relative stagnation of demand, on the international market. The largest wine importer in the world is Germany with 1,3 million tons (17% of the world's import). Large importers are also the UK, USA, Russia and France, which take up more than half of the world's wine import (58%). All of the abovemnetioned countries have increased tendency of wine import. Within the next period, we can expect stagnation of international turnover, due to the world's economic crisis. Current world's trend is consummation of light, muscat, aromatic white wines, and when it comes to red wine - customers prefer fresh, aromatic, fruit wine. We are expecting to see the growth of rose and organic wine (made out of organic grape). |
| Keywords: | wine, international turnover, import, export, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160516&r=int |
| By: | Itskovich, Alexander U. |
| Abstract: | The negotiations about the joining of Russian Federation (RF) to the World Trade Organization (WTO) were carried on in the period from 1993 till up 2012 years. The President of Russia undersigned on July 21, 2012 a Federal Law ''About the Ratification of the Protocol about the Joining of RF to the Marrakesh Agreement of the World Trade Organization Foundation of April 15, 1994''. After this ratification Russia becomes a member of the WTO and assumes corresponding obligations established by multilateral trade agreements. The Protocol becomes also a part of the legal foundations of Russian Federation. In a case when the Protocol establishes some other rules than the Russian Law are used the rules of the Protocol. One of the problems, which dragged the process of negotiations, remained, besides the other ones, obligations in the field of agriculture. In particular, in the sphere of the introduction of limitations corresponding the amount of the state supporting which one country, a member of the WTO, would be able to put at the disposal of national agroproducers. Nowadays the amount of the state supporting in regard of the agricultural sector makes up about 3.5 billions of the USD dollars annually. At the time of the joining the WTO it was determined in the amount of 9.0 billions of the USD dollars annually. In the following, in the period from 2012 till up 2017 years it would be reduced according to the corresponding schedule till 4.4 billions of the USD dollars annually. The necessity of the Russia’s joining to the WTO is explained on the ground of that fact that according to the rules and norms of the WTO are regulated more than 90 percents of the world trade with goods and services. At the same time the main form of the world economic connections as before remains the international trade which according to its dynamic and value indices leave behind the growth of the world production, the flow of capital and other kinds of international connections. According to the WTO data the amounts of the world agricultural foodstuffs export/import made up in 2000 year 558 billions of the USD dollars. The share of Russia in the export made up 1.3 percents and in the import 1.9 percents. The lack of balance in this sector of the international trade meant for Russia the loss of 3.3 billions of the USD dollars annually. The amount of import to Russian Federation increased in 2011 year compared with 2010 year by 30,0 percents and reached 323.3 billions of the USD dollars. At the same time the share of the agricultural sector in the import reached about 13.0 percents or 42.5 billions of the USD dollars. In the same period of time, according to the data of the Central Bank of Russia, the export of RF made up 521.4 billions of the USD dollars and increased by 30.2 percents, but the share of the agricultural sector only made up 2.3 percents of the total export. |
| Keywords: | World Trade Organization (WTO), ''yellow basket'', ''green basket'', conditions of ''WTO-plus'' regime, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160385&r=int |
| By: | Matthews, Alan |
| Abstract: | The WTO Doha Round of trade negotiations was launched in 2001 and after twelve years of negotiations members seem unable to bring it to a successful conclusion. An attempt to deliver an ‘early harvest’ of deliverables at the 9th WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali in December 2013 does not appear likely to be more successful. This paper describes the stage that the negotiations have reached in agriculture and the value of what is currently on the table. It reviews the agricultural agenda for the Bali meeting and the prospects for its success. It discusses the reasons for the current impasse in the negotiations and asks whether agricultural trade liberalization would be better served by abandoning the Doha Round. The paper argues that this would not be the case, and concludes by speculating on the conditions necessary to ensure a conclusion to the Round. |
| Keywords: | WTO, Doha Round, agricultural trade liberalization, Bali Ministerial Council, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160370&r=int |
| By: | Dončić, Dalibor; Nastić, Rade |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyzed in detail elements of the marketing mix of fruit and vegetables, therefore this product, price, distribution, promotion and people in Bosnia and Herzegovina, after seven years of liberal market within CEFTA. Each element of the marketing mix is analyzed for the most important vegetable species (cabbage, onions, peppers, tomatoes) and fruit species (apple, pear, plum). The analyzed elements of the marketing mix are compared with the characteristics of the elements of the marketing mix before integration BiH in CEFTA and people monitor the achieved level of competitiveness of fruit and vegetable producers in BiH. |
| Keywords: | agricultural trade liberalization, fruit, vegetables, producers, marketing mix, CEFTA, competitiveness, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160379&r=int |
| By: | Koesler, Simon; Pothen, Frank |
| Abstract: | This report presents the Basic WIOD CGE model. The model represents the first implementation of the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) into the CGE framework and is tailored to provide a maximum fit with WIOD data. The model is specifically designed such that it can serve as the basis for research in fields like environmental, climate and trade policy. It incorporates key features of WIOD such as bilateral and bisectoral trade ows, satellite accounts for energy consumption, greenhouse gas as well as other emissions to air on a sectoral level. As all WIOD data is available in the form of a consistent time series ranging from 1995 to 2009, the model can be calibrated to any year within this time period. The model relies on substitution elasticities which are consistently estimated from the same dataset the model itself is calibrated to. Moreover, the data preparation facilities and model are designed deliberately as exible as possible in order to allow researchers to use them as a basis for various applications. This enables researchers to secure the numerous advantages of the WIOD dataset when using CGE models for future research. -- |
| Keywords: | Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE),Input-Output,World Input Output Database (WIOD) |
| JEL: | C67 C68 E01 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdok:1304&r=int |
| By: | Popović, Rade; Radovanov, Boris; Jeremić, Marija |
| Abstract: | International milk market is created by 7% of world production volume. Volatile world milk prices in recent 6 years caused different forms of its transmission to national levels. In the paper this phenomena is investigated on two levels. First, on macro level how world milk price affects national markets in case of New Zealand as leading world exporter, Germany with growing net export, and Serbia with self-sufficient production. Second, it is analysed vertical price transmission in Serbian milk supply chain, according its magnitude, speed, nature and direction in period January 2007 to May 2013. Results improved understanding how world milk price influence milk price in Serbia and how price shocks are transmitted through milk supply chain for several most important kinds of milk products.Applied vector error correction model in horizontal milk price transmission indicates asymmetry in price transmission from world to Serbian milk market. Milk prices in Serbia respond to price signals from German and world market, but with significant time lags and increasing magnitude over time. From first to fourth month delay, milk prices from German market positively influence Serbian market, and from fifth to tenth month further increasing influence of world milk prices are presented. Nature of spatial asymmetry is positive. Results of threshold vector error correction model applied on dairy supply chain, suggests similar conclusionsfor all four major dairy products on Serbian market. Retail prices react mostly on raw milk price changes, with constant response to processor’s prices. Price shocks are originate at the processor level and are passed to farmers and to retailers. Blurred relationship between processing and retail sector permits more accurate analysis. |
| Keywords: | milk, price, transmission, World, Serbia, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160393&r=int |
| By: | Mukherjee, Soumyatanu |
| Abstract: | This paper explores a 3×3 full-employment H-O-S model with tariff-protection in the capital-intensive import-competing sector and inflows of FDI (foreign direct investment) to an export sector (using foreign capital as a specific input) within the ‘foreign enclave’ of a small open developing economy; whereas there are labour market distortion in the domestic organised tariff-protected import-competing sector and capital market distortion in the domestic unorganised sector of this typical economy. I have considered implications of sector-specific foreign capital inflows on national income (or social welfare, crudely however) of the economy under two different scenarios: when entire income from foreign capital is fully repatriated back to the source country; and when supply of FDI is a positive function of net return to foreign capital in the recipient country, coupled with labour-augmenting type technology transfer. It is found that the possibility of non-immiserising growth improves in the presence of labour market distortion in the organised sector while credit market imperfection in the unorganised sector deteriorates it. However in the presence of technology transfer, existence of labour market distortion is no longer a necessary condition for obtaining such result due to foreign capital inflows to the foreign enclave of this small open developing economy. Existence of output-generated increasing returns in the sector within the foreign enclave will not alter our results; while under the second scenario it will enhance the possibility of non-immiserising growth by raising the tax-revenue from foreign capital income in the host country through increasing the rental to foreign capital. These results are counter-intuitive with respect to the existing theoretical results suggesting immiserising growth owing to sector-specific foreign capital inflows using 3×3 or 2×3 full-employment models without any linkages. |
| Keywords: | Sector-specific FDI; Foreign Enclave; General Equilibrium; Labour Market Distortion; Technology Transfer. |
| JEL: | F11 F12 F13 F16 F35 |
| Date: | 2013–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52214&r=int |
| By: | Zekić, Stanislav; Gajić, Milivoj; Matkovski, Bojan |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is a relatively important economic activity in Serbia. In addition, the importance of agriculture stems from the upcoming full implementation of the Interim Trade Agreement with the EU, and the expected beginning of the negotiation process for full membership in the organization. In this context, the starting point of the analysis is the consideration of the agricultural resource potential as a prerequisite for the elaboration of its production performance. The analysis of export performances of agribusiness, together with the production performance of agriculture provides an accurate insight into the degree of competitiveness of Serbian agribusiness. The comparative approach to the problem provides the position identification of agriculture in Serbia, compared both with the region and the EU. This also considers the development perspective and determination of the role of agriculture in the integration of Serbian economy in regional and European frameworks. The empirical analysis represents the basis for the formulation of future steps in the creation of agricultural policy measures and appropriate strategies in the pre-accession negotiations with the EU. Above all, these measures should improve the competitiveness of agriculture, which, combined with the provision of food security and food safety and adequate incomes of farmers, has to be the imperative during the negotiation process with the EU in the field of agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Agricultural policy, Development performances, Export, Integrations., Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160518&r=int |
| By: | Nikolić, Marija M.; Ševarlić, Miladin M. |
| Abstract: | The cooperative sector is an indispensable and integral part of the global economy; includes cooperatives ranging from small-scale to multi-million dollar businesses in all sectors of the economy, count over 800 million members and provide 100 million jobs – which is 20 percent more than multinational company. According to ICA Global 300 list, the largest 300 cooperatives in the world generate revenue of 1,600 billion US dollars (2010), which is comparable to the GDP of the Russian Federation or Spain and occupies the ninth place among the world's largest economies. The paper analyze the contribution of cooperatives to the development of international trade in agricultural and food products, starting from agricultural cooperatives which organized small farmers and involve them in local, national and world trade, to the consumer cooperatives that have managed to survive in spite of strong competition and increasing prices of agricultural and food products and the global economic crisis, and which significantly contribute to the international trade fair. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part is given the analysis of the contribution of the largest cooperatives in the world according to the list by Global 300 list, with special emphasis on the importance of agricultural cooperatives in the local economy, both in terms of reducing unemployment, as well as in the production of agricultural and food products. In the second part of the paper is presented the genesis of the development of a major international cooperative trade event – ICA Expo-Coop, which is a cooperative international fair that was held eight times in the period since 2004 to 2012. Based on the development of this international manifestation, the number of cooperatives exhibitors and visitors, and other important information, it is possible to observe how cooperatives participate and promote the development of international trade of agricultural and food products. It was particularly emphasized that the cooperative sector and ICA Expo-Coop are not adequately recognized and represented in the activities of the WTO after the Doha round. |
| Keywords: | cooperatives, trade, agricultural and food products, cooperative fair, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160390&r=int |
| By: | Simić, Jelena Damnjanović; Zakić, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | In many developing countries, regional integration has become a key means of promoting economic growth and fighting poverty. PTAs are increasingly used as engines of change in many developing countries, to promote, implement, and lock in reforms in a wide range of policy areas such as investment regimes, competition rules, and government procurement. They create larger and more competitive markets and benefit producers and consumers through economies of scale and lower prices. Although PTAs may promote development, they necessarily discriminate against nonmembers and can therefore lead to trade diversion in a way that hurts both member countries and excluded countries. Also, the proliferation of bilateral and regional PTAs may undermine progress toward a more open, transparent, and rules-based multilateral trading system. In this paper it will be discussed about the establishment and expectations of a free trade agreement CEFTA 2006. Specifically, the South East European countries, which made the majority of this regional economic integration, still have many unresolved, above all, political problems. On the other hand, the different status of these countries in the process of integration into the European Union chose the inflow of financial resources and speed necessary economic reforms. However, the global economic crisis has slowed the flow of financial resources, especially greenfield investments, deepened social stratification and mutual political differences between member states. This paper will try to answer the question: do this PTAs really contribute to deeper integration in EU? |
| Keywords: | PTAs, Integration, CEFTA, European Union, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160378&r=int |
| By: | Birovljev, Jelena; Ćetković, Biljana |
| Abstract: | Free trade has become a modern-day creed, accepted by both wealthy industrialized countries and many governments of developing countries as the generator of economic growth, development and employment. However, free trade has also been condemned by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in developing countries as the tool through which the economic dominance of wealthy, developed countries is institutionalized and maintained. Agriculture has been one of the most controversial issues in the multilateral trade negotiations for the past fifty years. The aim of this article is to examine food security implications of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. It discusses the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, which is systematically favoring agricultural producers in industrialized countries at the expense of farmers in developing countries, and explores ways in which the Agreement may be modified to achieve a more equal chance for success for both parties. The article also deals with the extent to which realization of the Agreement’s stated objective – the establishment of a fair and market-oriented agricultural trading system—is likely to advance food security in developing countries. The first section defines food security, discusses the relationship between trade and food security, and analyzes the impact of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture on food security in developing countries. The second section sets forth the reforms necessary to address inequities in the global trading system for agricultural commodities, and enhance and protect food security in developing countries. The last section concludes that leveling the playing field between industrialized and developing countries is a necessity, but not sufficient to promote food security. Promotion of food security requires additional trade reforms, so as to provide developing countries with a wide range of solutions and ensure access by all people at all times to sufficient, safe and nutritious food. |
| Keywords: | free trade, WTO, agriculture, developing countries, food security, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160372&r=int |
| By: | Catia Batista (Nova University of Lisbon); Gaia Narciso (Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Do information flows matter for remittance behavior? We design and implement a randomized control trial to quantitatively assess the role of communication between migrants and their contacts abroad on the extent and value of remittance flows. In the experiment, a random sample of 1,500 migrants residing in Ireland was offered the possibility of contacting their networks outside the host country for free over a varying number of months. We find a sizable, positive impact of our intervention on the value of migrant remittances sent. Our results exclude that the remittance effect we identify is a simple substitution effect. Instead, our analysis points to this effect being a likely result of improved information via factors such as better migrant control over remittance use, enhanced trust in remittance channels due to experience sharing, or increased remittance recipients’ social pressure on migrants. |
| Keywords: | information flows, international migration, migrantnetworks, remittances, randomized control trial |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1331&r=int |
| By: | Buch, Claudia M.; Neugebauer, Katja; Schröder, Christoph |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis has brought to an end a rather unprecedented period of banks' international expansion. We analyze the effects of the crisis on international banking. Using a detailed dataset on the international assets of all German banks with foreign affiliates for the years 2002-2011, we study bank internationalization before and during the crisis. Our data allow analyzing not only the international assets of the banks' headquarters but also of their foreign affiliates. We show that banks have lowered their international assets, both along the extensive and the intensive margin. This withdrawal from foreign markets is the result of changing market conditions, of policy interventions, and of a weakly increasing sensitivity of banks to financial frictions. -- |
| Keywords: | international banking,gravity model,financial frictions |
| JEL: | G01 F34 G21 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:482013&r=int |
| By: | Lena Tonzer |
| Abstract: | Recent events emphasize the role of cross-border linkages between banking systems in transmitting local developments across national borders. This paper analyzes whether international linkages in interbank markets affect the stability of interconnected banking systems and channel financial distress within a network consisting of banking systems of main advanced countries for the period 1993-2009. Methodologically, I use a spatial modelling approach to test for spillovers in cross-border interbank markets. The results suggest that foreign exposures in banking play a significant role in channelling banking risk: I find that countries which are linked through foreign borrowing or lending positions to more stable banking systems abroad are significantly affected by positive spillover effects. From a policy point of view, this implies that especially in stable times linkages in the banking system can be beneficial, while they have to be taken with caution in times of financial turmoil covering the whole system. |
| Keywords: | Financial contagion, financial integration, banking networks |
| JEL: | F21 F34 G21 O16 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:129&r=int |
| By: | Hurduzeu, Gheorghe; Hurduzeu, Raluca |
| Abstract: | The international diversification of assets by investing in agricultural commodities has manifested increasingly in recent years, as demonstrated by the growth in investment in commodities which have augmented rapidly in recent years, the prospect is that they will increase further. The common perception is that international trade markets investments popularity comes from the fact that the goods constitute an alternative asset class with returns that present, at least in theory, low or negative correlation with the returns on assets belonging to traditional asset classes: stocks and bonds. Harry Markowitz (1959) and James Tobin (1958) developed the theory of optimal selection of securities portfolios in an uncertain environment. This was developed by William Sharpe (1964) and John Lintner (1965) in a general equilibrium model prices. This model completes and improves Markowitz's theory, because even its author William Sharpe, leaves in its development, inters alia, on the premise that the investor will use an investment approach as described by his predecessor. Basically the model enables us to facilitate the work in evaluating the expected earnings of the various securities and portfolios, which relates to a risk measure called β. What is particularly important about this model is that it is currently applied in the industry of the investments, maybe not in its original form, but in newer versions adapted of it. However, the researchers concluded that the overall balance given by the CAPM is quite inconsistent in practice. Other authors have attempted to explain the application of CAPM on futures markets. The conclusion was that the CAPM is not consistent in explaining the results of the futures markets, but also the qualitative and quantitative empirical phenomena are unable to explain the results from the futures markets. |
| Keywords: | portofolio, diversification, prices, volatility, risk, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa135:160384&r=int |
| By: | durongkaveroj, wannaphong |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at investigating the sectoral impacts from exogenous shocks using CGE model through GTAP model which is implemented by GEMPACK. Three shocks include population growth in NAFTA region, Industrial Growth in Thailand, and Income Growth (measured by GDP) in NAFTA region. The result was very precise and benefit to policymakers corresponding to the objective of CGE model. According to the results, relatively, income growth in NAFTA region yields a highest welfare effect among all shocks which confirms the standard welfare functions. |
| Keywords: | CGE model, GTAP, exogenous shock |
| JEL: | A1 C68 E6 E65 |
| Date: | 2013–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52216&r=int |
| By: | Wenbiao Cai; B. Ravikumar; Raymond G. Riezman |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with a classic development question: how can the process of economic development – transition from stagnation in a traditional technology to industrialization and prosperity with a modern technology – be accelerated? Lewis (1954) and Rostow (1956) argue that the pace of industrialization is limited by the rate of capital formation which in turn is limited by the savings rate of workers close to subsistence. We argue that access to capital goods in the world market can be quantitatively important in speeding up the transition. We develop a parsimonious open-economy model where traditional and modern technologies coexist (a dual economy in the sense of Lewis (1954)). We show that a decline in the world price of capital goods in an open economy increases the rate of capital formation and speeds up the pace of industrialization relative to a closed economy that lacks access to cheaper capital goods. In the long run, the investment rate in the open economy is twice as high as in the closed economy and the per capita income is 23 percent higher. |
| JEL: | O11 F43 O14 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:win:winwop:2013-02&r=int |
| By: | Herrmann, Sabine; Jochem, Axel |
| Abstract: | The paper evaluates current account dynamics in countries with different exchange rate regimes within the EU. In this, the empirical analysis explicitly differentiates between countries with a flexible and a fixed exchange rate regime and members of a monetary union. In addition, we model the adjustment process of external disequilibria by referring to the flexibility of exchange rates and interest rates. The sample covers annual data for 27 EU countries from 1994 to 2011. The estimation is based on a simple autoregressive model and comes to the conclusion that current account adjustment is significantly hampered in countries that are members of a monetary union. This holds particularly in comparison with floating exchange rate regimes owing to lower exchange rate flexibility. However, the persistence of current account balances in member countries of a monetary union is also more pronounced than in fixed-rate regimes due to less flexible interest rates as a result of the single monetary policy. -- |
| Keywords: | Balance of Payments,European Monetary Union,Exchange Rate Regime,Current Account Adjustment,Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | E52 F32 F33 F34 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:492013&r=int |
| By: | Raphael W. Lam |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the determinants of Japanese banks’ overseas expansion and assesses whether the growing cross-border activity will continue under the new macroeconomic policies referred as “Abenomicsâ€. The analysis finds that Japanese banks are well positioned to scale up foreign exposures, thanks to their relative resilient balance sheets and continued growth in the region. Stronger domestic growth in Japan could mitigate the pace, but is unlikely to reverse the expansion as global and regional pull-factors play a more prominent role in the growth of cross-border claims. Increasing cross-border activity could pose funding risks and supervisory challenges and require continued close monitoring. |
| Keywords: | Banks;Japan;Financial institutions;Nonbank financial sector;Bank supervision;Banking systems;Japan, cross-border banking, Abenomics, funding risks |
| Date: | 2013–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/235&r=int |