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on International Trade |
| By: | Ozgul Bilici (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics); Erkan Erdil (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University); I. Hakan Yetkiner (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to determine the role of EU in Turkey’s trade flows by using the gravity model. It also aims to test whether the Customs Union (of EU) that Turkey entered in 1996 made a deviation in Turkey’s trade flows. Regional trade agreements on the one hand create new trade opportunities (trade creation effect). On the other hand, these agreements may also lead to diversion from free trade (trade diversion effect). Turkey’s Customs Union agreement without becoming a member of EU provides a laboratory to researchers to test whether the agreement was significant enough to cause any deviation in Turkey’s trade flow. In the first part of the study, we shortly provide some descriptive statistics related to Turkey’s trade flows with EU to see whether EU has gained any weight in the flows. In the second part, we first develop a gravity model that econometrically designates the determinants of Turkey’s trade flows via panel data approach. Next, we use this equation to test the importance of EU countries in Turkey’s trade flow and whether the flow has been subject to a deviation after the Customs Union agreement. Our findings indicate that EU countries have always been important in Turkey’s trade flow and that Customs Union has increased EU’s importance marginally in determining Turkey’s trade flow. |
| Keywords: | Gravity model, Turkey, EU, Panel Data, Customs Union |
| JEL: | F02 F11 F13 F14 F21 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:izm:wpaper:0806&r=int |
| By: | Ville Kaitila |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT : We use the concept of marginal intra-industry trade (MIIT) to analyse the effect of trade expansion on labour productivity growth across 23 EU countries and 94 manufacturing sectors in 1995-2005. The highest MIIT index values are found in sectors producing differentiated goods as well as in science and scale-intensive sectors, while the lowest are found in resource and labour-intensive sectors. Thus specialisation in sectors characterised by traditional comparative advantage has been associated with slower productivity growth. The results indicate that a trade-flow expansion characterised by intra-industry trade (high MIIT) is associated with faster productivity growth also after we control for the size in trade flow changes. Especially the increase in imports seems important. The analysis is mostly done using random-effects linear model specifications but further evidence is presented using several other estimation methods. |
| Keywords: | productivity, growth, marginal intra-industry trade |
| JEL: | J24 F1 C23 |
| Date: | 2008–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:dpaper:1164&r=int |
| By: | Alexander Vogel and Joachim Wagner (Institute of Economics, University of Lüneburg) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a newly available comprehensive panel data set for manufacturing enterprises from 2001 to 2005 to document the first empirical results on the relationship between imports and productivity for Germany, a leading actor on the world market for goods. Furthermore, for the first time the direction of causality in this relationship is investigated systematically by testing for self-selection of more productive firms into importing, and for productivity-enhancing effects of imports (‘learning-by-importing’). We find a positive link between importing and productivity. From an empirical model with fixed enterprise effects that controls for firm size, industry, and unobservable firm heterogeneity we see that the premia for trading internationally are about the same in West and East Germany. Compared to firms that do not trade at all two-way traders do have the highest premia, followed by firms that only export, while firms that only import have the smallest estimated premia. We find evidence for a positive impact of productivity on importing, pointing to self-selection of more productive enterprises into imports, but no evidence for positive effects of importing on productivity due to learning-by-importing. |
| Keywords: | imports, exports, productivity, enterprise panel data, Germany |
| JEL: | F14 D21 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lue:wpaper:106&r=int |
| By: | Giorgia Albertin |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a general equilibrium analysis of the trade effects of the formation of a currency union, and of its subsequent enlargement to include an economically dissimilar country. Furthermore, it investigates how economic dissimilarities among countries affect the magnitude of the trade effects fostered by a common currency. We show that sharing a common currency enhances the volume of bilateral trade among countries. However, the more economically dissimilar is an accession country, compared to the original members of a currency union, the smaller are the gains in trade that would follow the enlargement of a currency union. |
| Keywords: | Monetary unions , Trade integration , International trade , Trade models , |
| Date: | 2008–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/249&r=int |
| By: | Matthias Deschryvere; Annu Kotiranta |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT : This study empirically explores whether the propensity to offshore affects the total domestic employment at the firm level. The analysis is based on a Finnish weighted sample of 652 firms and screens the effect of offshoring different kinds of tasks. Two main channels of offshoring tasks are taken into account : offshore outsourcing and in-house offshoring. The main conclusion is that offshoring can significantly affect the total domestic employment but that the significance and the direction of the effect depend on which kind of offshoring is involved. Our results offer evidence that in both the manufacturing and service sectors offshore outsourcing of services has a positive effect on employment. In addition it was found that the effect of R&D offshoring on the probability to anticipate an increase of total domestic employment depends on the offshoring channel. Offshore outsourcing of R&D has a positive effect on the anticipated domestic employment, whereas in-house offshoring of R&D has a negative effect. Specific for the manufacturing sector is that offshore outsourcing of production also has a negative significant effect. A final conclusion is that only in the service sector does in-house offshoring of services have a negative effect on the probability to anticipate an increase of domestic employment. By dissecting offshoring by tasks and channels the above empirical findings contribute to a better understanding of the aggregate effects of offshoring on domestic employment. |
| Keywords: | globalization, internationalization, outsourcing, offshoring, job loss, domestic effects, home country effects |
| JEL: | F16 F23 L20 |
| Date: | 2008–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:dpaper:1166&r=int |