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on Information and Communication Technologies |
| By: | George Kapetanios (Queen Mary, University of London); Vincent Labhard (Bank of England); Simon Price (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | In recent years there has been increasing interest in forecasting methods that utilise large datasets, driven partly by the recognition that policymaking institutions need to process large quantities of information. Factor analysis is one popular way of doing this. Forecast combination is another, and it is on this that we concentrate. Bayesian model averaging methods have been widely advocated in this area, but a neglected frequentist approach is to use information theoretic based weights. We consider the use of model averaging in forecasting UK inflation with a large dataset from this perspective. We find that an information theoretic model averaging scheme can be a powerful alternative both to the more widely used Bayesian model averaging scheme and to factor models. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, Inflation, Bayesian model averaging, Akaike criteria, Forecast combining |
| JEL: | C11 C15 C53 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp566&r=ict |
| By: | Rakesh Basant (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad); Simon Commander (London Business School and IZA Bonn); Rupert Harrison (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London); Naercio Menezes-Filho (Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a unique new data set on nearly a thousand manufacturing firms in Brazil and India to investigate the determinants of ICT adoption and its impact on performance in both countries. The descriptive evidence shows that Brazilian firms on average use ICT more intensively than their Indian counterparts but changes over time have been rather similar in both places. Within countries ICT intensity is strongly related to size, ownership structure, share of administrative workers and education. The econometric evidence documents a strong relationship between ICT capital and productivity in both countries, even after controlling for several other factors, including firm-specific fixed-effects. The rate of return of ICT investment seems to be much larger than usually found in more developed countries. Specific types of organisational changes matter for the return of ICT, but only for high adopters. Firms report several constraints to ICT investment in both countries and power disruption seems to significantly depress adoption and returns to ICT expenditures in India. This may be indicative of the impact of a cluster of poor institutions and/or infrastructure on performance. |
| Keywords: | ICT, productivity |
| JEL: | J2 E20 L20 L60 O33 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2294&r=ict |
| By: | Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of mass media and information and communications technologies (ICT) as knowledge-based infrastructures on economic development. The results strongly suggest that both mass media and ICT penetration are negatively associated with corruption. This result holds across both the entire sample (of both developed and developing countries), and only for developing countries. The same result is also obtained for the effects of ICT and mass media on economic inequality. However, ICT reveals itself inequality increasing for the developing country sample but inequality decreasing for the entire sample. Finally, lower poverty is robustly associated with higher media (newspaper circulation) penetration. |
| Keywords: | Information and Communications Technologies, Mass Media, Economic Growth and Development, Poverty, Corruption, Inequality |
| JEL: | D30 D80 O1 O57 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:267&r=ict |