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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | BROADBERRY, Stephen; FUKAO, Kyoji; SETTSU, Tokihiko |
| Abstract: | This paper uses recently revised data on Japanese GDP to analyze the process by which Japan caught-up with the West. The new historical national accounts suggest that Japan was more than one-third richer in 1874 than suggested by Maddison, and that the Meiji period growth built on earlier development. We show that (1) despite trend GDP per capita growth during the Tokugawa shogunate, the catching-up process only started after 1890 with respect to Britain, and after World War 1 with respect to the United States and many European nations (2) although catching up was driven by the dynamic productivity performance of Japanese manufacturing, Japanese success in exporting manufactured goods was just as much driven by limiting the growth of real wages (3) despite claims that Japan was following a distinctive Asian path of labour-intensive industrialisation, capital played an important role in the catching-up process. |
| Keywords: | Labour productivity, sectoral disaggregation, international comparison |
| JEL: | N10 N30 O47 O57 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:763 |
| By: | Atsuki Kotani |
| Abstract: | The technical change from steam engines to electric motors dramatically transformed manufacturing activities during the Second Industrial Revolution. This paper explores how this technical change progressed and what consequences it brought for the evolution of economic geography. I hypothesize that electric motors powered by purchased electricity lowered barriers to entry in the manufacturing sector due to their significantly lower fixed costs compared to steam engines. To examine this hypothesis, I exploit the historical expansion of electricity grids in early 20th-century Japan and newly digitized establishment-level official records, including information on power sources of establishments. Descriptive evidence shows that electric motors were widely adopted by establishments of all sizes, whereas steam engines were primarily adopted by large establishments, indicating lower fixed costs of electric motors. Using hydropower potential as an instrument, I document that new entrants played a crucial role in driving this technical change and stimulating manufacturing activities. Overall, these findings lend substantial support for the hypothesis. Furthermore, I find that regions with earlier electricity access experienced substantial population growth throughout the early 20th century and exhibit larger economic activity even in the 21st century. These findings suggest a persistent impact of this technological shock: the rapid increase in entrant activities generated agglomeration forces in manufacturing, with accumulated effects still visible in the spatial distribution of economic activity today. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1279 |
| By: | Wagenaar, Homer |
| Abstract: | This paper is an institutional study of the patent systems of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands and its successor states Belgium and the Netherlands in the nineteenth century. The patent law of 1817 gave the state wide discretion to accept or refuse patents and to customise their duration, fees, and terms on a case-by-case basis. Through an indepth reconstruction of the patent system's administrative process, I demonstrate (1) how this system developed informal rules of procedure in its initial years, and (2) how the law after Belgium's independence from 1830 fared differently in each successor state. While in Belgium the patent system became widely used and increasingly codified, culminating in an 1850s reform, in the Netherlands the neglect of the patent system led in 1869 to its abolition. |
| Keywords: | institutions, patents, economic history, nineteenth century, industrial revolution, the Netherlands, Belgium |
| JEL: | K22 L43 N43 O31 O34 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:315205 |
| By: | Costanza Maria Fileccia (University of Bern); Eric Strobl (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | The “European” agricultural model introduced during the first British settlement in 1788 proved unsuitable for the very different Australian environment, forcing farmers to adapt creatively. This study examines how climate shaped such adaptive behavior in wheat farming in Australia from the mid-19th century until just before the green revolution. Climate adaptation is modeled using a methodology that allows one to disentangle long-term from short-term responses of farmers to climate without explicit data on adaptation. We apply this approach to digitalized historical records on sub-national wheat yields and gridded climate reanalysis data for the period 1860 to 1960. There is evidence of significant adaptation to precipitation but no adaptation to temperature for wheat yields in the long run. The results broadly coincide with how adaptations are known to have developed differently across time and regions in Australia. |
| Keywords: | Wheat, Climate adaptation, Colonial Australia, Agri-cliometrics |
| JEL: | N00 N57 Q10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0276 |
| By: | Eduardo Levy Yeyati; Sebastián Katz |
| Abstract: | Based on long series of per capita GDPs, we characterize the economic divergence of Argentina in the 20th century relative to a group of countries with comparable initial income per capita. We find the divergence to be considerably longer than usually conjectured, with two marked tranches in the first half of the century and in the post war period, the latter being associated with GDP underperformance despite the relative decline in population. We identify specific dates for the inflection points, discuss the context in each case, and propose a potential explanation of the divergence together with a description of the highly volatile plateau displayed since the 1990s. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpgobi:202404 |
| By: | Giulio Cainelli (Department of Economics and Management "Marco Fanno", University of Padua); Carlo Ciccarelli (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome Tor Vergata, and CAGE Research Centre, Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Roberto Ganau (Department of Economics and Management "Marco Fanno", University of Padua, and Department of Geography and Environment, LSE) |
| Abstract: | We study how changes in the administrative hierarchy of a country affect development at the city level. We use the 1806 Napoleonic administrative reform implemented in the Kingdom of Naples as a historical experiment to assess whether district capitals with supra-municipal administrative functions enjoyed an urban development premium compared with non-capital cities. We find that district capitals recorded a population growth premium throughout the 19th century (1828–1911) and experienced higher industrialization than non-capital cities, both before and after the Italian unification. We explain our findings through mechanisms relating to public goods provision and transport network accessibility. |
| Keywords: | Napoleonic reforms; local administrative hierarchy; development |
| JEL: | H11 N13 O11 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:workqs:qse_54 |
| By: | Mattias Nasman; Grace Ballor |
| Abstract: | In the second half of the twentieth century, the car industry became a lightning rod for debates about human contributions to climate change. Widespread motorisation galvanised the green movements of the 1960s and 1970s, regulators increasingly demanded the use of pollution and climate mitigation technologies, and carmakers responded to this changing consumer and regulatory environment by gradually observing stricter emissions standards and innovating away from combustible engines at the turn of the millennium. This paper traces the arc of the relationship between car manufacturing and climate change through a business historical lens, from the development of internal combustion engines and their alternatives to the political economy of an energy transition and the decision to prioritise electric vehicles. Our analysis aims to lay a foundation for further research on industry and climate change. |
| Keywords: | environmental history, business history, automakers, regulation, climate governance |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcu:greewp:greenwp24 |
| By: | Süße, Marvin; Grigoriadis, Theocharis |
| Abstract: | Gerschenkron (1962) argued that public institutions such as the State Bank of the Russian Empire spurred the country's industrialization. We test this assertion by exploiting plant-level variation in access to State Bank branches using a unique geocoded factory data set. Employing an identification strategy based on geographical distances between banks and factories, our results show improved access to public banking encouraged faster growth in factory-level revenue, mechanization, and labor productivity. In line with theories of late industrialization, we also find evidence that public credit mattered more in regions where commercial banks were fewer and markets were smaller. |
| Keywords: | industrialization, economic geography, banking, industrial policy |
| JEL: | G28 L52 N23 O14 P41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:315202 |
| By: | Berker, Christian |
| Abstract: | After the "institutional turn" economists are now in a lively debate about the role of institutions for growth as well as the sources of institutional change. This paper discusses institutional change in Prussia in the 17th and 18th century. It shows the importance of the geopolitical context for understanding institutional change. Using three political events, the paper combines geographical, institutional and political arguments and highlights how context-sensitive institutional change can be. Prussia’s institutional change was heavily influenced by its many direct neighbours and the political necessities of that time. Therefore, time and space (location) are highly relevant for institutional change. |
| Date: | 2025–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:153630 |
| By: | Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Mukhopadhyay, Anwesh (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We review the present-day impacts of colonial rule on former colonies. Persistence exists because of multiple equilibria, path dependence, institutions, culture, knowledge, and technology. Empirical work in this literature primarily uses tools from applied econometrics, though best practices are needed to overcome the limitations of these tools. Colonial interventions relating to institutions, infrastructure, land, forced labour, the slave trade, and human capital all have measurable impacts in the present. And yet many colonial interventions have failed to persist or have led to reversals. These cases are informative about why colonial rule still matters, as are cases where precolonial influences have had persistent impacts despite, or even because of, colonial rule. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1557 |
| By: | BROADBERRY, Stephen; FUKAO, Kyoji; GUAN, Hanhui |
| Abstract: | Comparing the major Asian economies of China, India and Japan without taking account of variations in size suggests that the Asian Little Divergence began in the eighteenth century when Japan overtook first India and then China. However, the Great Divergence debate has focused on when the leading regions of the declining countries first fell behind and there was significant regional variation in GDP per capita in all three countries. Allowing for regional variation significantly changes the dating of the Asian Little Divergence: (1) In China, the Yangzi Delta, with a population about the same size as the whole of Japan, did not fall behind until around the time of the Meiji restoration in 1868. (2) In Japan, the Kinai region forged ahead of the Yangzi Delta around 1800. (3) In India, Mysore remained behind the Yangzi Delta throughout the period 1600-1870 and therefore has less significance for the timing of the Asian Little Divergence. |
| Keywords: | Regions, GDP per capita, Asia, Little Divergence |
| JEL: | N15 N95 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:764 |
| By: | Yatish Arya (Department of Economics, Ashoka University); Amit Chaudhary (Gillmore Centre for Financial Technology, Warwick Business School, United Kingdom); Anisha Garg (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | Religious groups sometimes resist welfare-enhancing interventions, impacting human capital. Can resistance to secular education arise when rulers sharing religious identity with a group are deposed by foreign powers? Focusing on colonial India, we analyze the impact of shared religious identity between deposed local rulers and religious groups on literacy. Muslim literacy is lower where British authorities replaced a Muslim ruler, and Hindu literacy is lower when the ousted ruler was Hindu. Addressing OVB, we use literacy differences, complemented by an IV approach. Our results show that the effect of shared religious identity on literacy rates depended on the historical ties between deposed rulers and their subjects: in districts where ousted rulers had historical connections to their co-religionists, there was greater resistance to education introduced by the colonizers. |
| Date: | 2025–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:138 |
| By: | Trung V. Vu |
| Abstract: | This paper probes the robustness and plausibility of the long-term impact of traditional plough use on contemporary gender roles established by Alesina, Giuliano and Nunn [Quarterly Journal of Economics (2013) Vol. 128, pp. 469 – 530]. It finds that the reduced-form women-plough relationship is robust to testing a falsification hypothesis, using alternative proxies for gender inequality, and accounting for selection bias from unobservables and spatial dependence. Further evidence suggests that ancestral plough adoption affects today’s gender inequality through shaping historically persistent gender-biased norms reflected in oral traditions. Additionally, the culturally embodied, intergenerationally transmitted impact of traditional plough use on gender inequality is significantly lower among societies whose ancestors were exposed to unstable climatic environments during the period 500 – 1900 CE. |
| Keywords: | plough, gender inequality, female empowerment, replication |
| JEL: | N10 O10 Q15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-11 |
| By: | Wagenaar, Homer; Colvin, Christopher L. |
| Abstract: | We examine the accessibility and functioning of the patent system in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, a state that existed between 1815 and 1830. The country's patent law combined an examination process with significant government discretion over a patent's duration and cost. Using our hand-collected database of all patent applications-granted, withdrawn, and rejected-we analyse the determinants of success, and the conditions imposed on applicants by the system's administrators. We find that discretion optimised patent terms rather than causing bias. The system was accessible despite high fees. Our analysis suggests that social class, skills, and market orientation drove the demand for patents. Our research contributes to understanding the history of European patent institutions by adding high-quality patent data for the second economy in the world to experience an Industrial Revolution. |
| Keywords: | patents, innovation, industrialisation, discretion, Low Countries |
| JEL: | L51 N44 N74 O31 O34 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:315206 |
| By: | Mathias Hoffmann; Tetsuji Okazaki; Toshihiro Okubo |
| Abstract: | In Japan in the 1920s, several financial crises and government policy led to bank mergers and the consolidation and expansion of branch networks. Using unique historical bank branch-level lending and deposit data, we show that branch banking integrated peripheral markets with the rest of the country, with large urban banks — those headquartered in Tokyo and Osaka — using deposit supply shocks in peripheral areas to fund lending elsewhere. While these findings support contemporary concerns about branch banking draining funds from peripheral markets, we argue that the export of liquidity by urban banks likely represented an efficient reallocation of credit, driven primarily by competition in funding markets. Faced with high-yielding lending opportunities in central prefectures, urban banks bid up deposit rates in peripheral areas, raising local banks’ funding costs. Local banks responded by lowering intermediation margins and reducing lending to traditional industries, which suggests that they shifted their lending to less risky and more efficient customers. We speculate that this competitive reallocation of capital across regions and sectors allowed banks to maintain a functional specialization in different customer segments, which may explain the continued coexistence of small relationship lenders and large integrated arms-length lenders in local banking markets. |
| Keywords: | bank, branch banking, regional ï¬ nance, bank merger, economic history, Japan, internal capital markets, relationship lending, financial integration |
| JEL: | F36 G2 N2 N9 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-16 |
| By: | Tetsuji Okazaki (The Faculty of Economics, Meiji Gakuin University, The Cann Institte for Global Studies (CIGS), and The University of Tokyo); Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Eric Strobl (Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, University of Bern) |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2025cf1246 |
| By: | Marzian, Johannes; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that budget cuts, e.g. on social or foreign affairs, were rarely used to finance military buildups. Instead, governments typically relied on a mix of deficit financing and higher tax revenues. The larger the buildup, the more dominant debt financing has been. In line with history and theory, Germany and Europe should again rely on debt financing to quickly increase its defense spending and military capabilities. To deal with the added debt burden in the medium run, governments could increase taxes, reduce subsidies and tax avoidance, and freeze the growth of social spending. Fiscal rules must not stand in the way of the defence of Europe. A warning example is the case of the UK in the 1930s, which refrained from significantly ramping up military expenditure and instead pursued a policy of balanced budgets and appeasement. Consequently, the UK was ill-prepared when Nazi Germany launched its attack. Germany should not repeat the errors made by Britain in the 1930s and should invest heavily in defense so as to deter Russia. To achieve this, defense spending should be excluded from fiscal rules both in Germany and Europe. A less clear-cut alternative would be the creation of new debt funds, such as a European financing mechanism or another "Sondervermögen" in Germany. |
| Abstract: | Europa muss seine Militärausgaben deutlich erhöhen, aber wie? Diese Frage beantworten wir mit einem Blick in die Geschichte. Wie haben Regierungen in der Vergangenheit in ähnlichen Situationen reagiert? Wie wurden Aufrüstung und Kriege typischerweise finanziert - durch Schulden, Steuern oder Haushaltskürzungen? Hierzu sammeln und analysieren wir neue detaillierte Daten zu Staatsausgaben in 22 Ländern über einen Zeitraum von 150 Jahren. Unsere wichtigste Erkenntnis ist, dass Haushaltskürzungen, z.B. in Auswärtigen Angelegenheiten oder im sozialen Bereich, keine große Rolle spielten. Fast alle Aufrüstungen wurden kurzfristig über Defizite und höhere Steuereinnahmen finanziert. Je größer die Aufrüstung, desto stärker die Schuldenfinanzierung. Im Einklang mit ökonomischer Theorie sollten Deutschland und Europa die erhöhten Verteidigungsausgaben kurzfristig über Schulden finanzieren. Um die zusätzliche Schuldenlast zu bewältigen, könnten mittelfristig die Steuern erhöht, Subventionen und Steuervermeidung reduziert, und das Wachstum der Sozialausgaben begrenzt werden. Fiskalregeln dürfen der Verteidigung Europas nicht entgegenstehen. Ein warnendes Beispiel ist Großbritannien in den 1930ern, das auf Appeasement und eine "schwarze Null" setzte, statt die Militärausgaben zu erhöhen. Dies führte dazu, dass Großbritannien unzureichend vorbereitet war, als Nazi-Deutschland angriff. Wir sollten den schwerwiegenden Fehler Großbritanniens der 1930er vermeiden und heute ausreichend in Verteidigung investieren, um Russland abzuschrecken. Verteidigungsausgaben sollten daher von den Fiskalregeln ausgenommen werden, sowohl in Deutschland als auch in Europa. Eine weniger klare Alternative wären neue Schuldenfonds, etwa ein europäischer Finanzierungsmechanismus oder ein weiteres deutsches Sondervermögen. |
| Keywords: | Military expenditures, Fiscal multipliers, Innovation, Growth, Short- and long-run consequences of rearmament, USA, Europe, Militärausgaben, Steuermultiplikatoren, Innovation, Wachstum, kurz- und langfristige Folgen der Aufrüstung, USA, Europa |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:313631 |
| By: | Marcel Parent; Antoine Parent (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, IXXI - Institut Rhône-Alpin des systèmes complexes - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Pierre-Charles Pradier (UP1 UFR02 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - École d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Laurent Gauthier (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis, IXXI - Institut Rhône-Alpin des systèmes complexes - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | The canonical reading of Jaurès's L'Armée nouvelle presents this work as an outdated reflection on the establishment of a socialist society supervised by intermediary bodies whose military training would be a major asset. Our reading goes beyond this historically situated approach to Jaurès's book. We show that The New Army is not just a response to the General Staff, even less a "theorisation" of the transition to socialism, but that its aim is to rehabilitate the founding principles of democracy (ancient as well as modern), which rests on the constitution of an army of citizens: The "proletarian-soldier" of Jaurès is none other than the "farmer-soldier" of the ancient city and of Year 2 of the French Revolutionary calendar, transposed to the Industrial Age. Relying on a game-theoretical model, we highlight that this defence of democratic principles is backed by a discourse of the economics of war prevention in terms of self-protection. |
| Keywords: | Jean Jaurès, War, Socialism, Economics of prevention, Game theory |
| Date: | 2024–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-04425659 |
| By: | Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) 1975 - 2023." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datendokumentation ; Datengewinnung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; IAB-Leistungsempfängerhistorik ; Stichprobenverfahren ; 10.5164/IAB.SIAB7523.de.en.v1 ; 1975-2023 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202502(en) |
| By: | Daniel Fehrle (Kiel University, Department of Economics); Vasilij Konysev (University of Augsburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The comparative economic performance between the former socialist German Democratic Republic (GDR) and the capitalist Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) remains inconclusive due to valuation problems. We address these problems by applying wedge-growth accounting to a newly compiled dataset. More precisely, we compare the allocation efficiency using wedges between marginal utility and productivity, as well as Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. Wedges in marginal utility account for binding quantity constraints in GDR’s goods and FRG’s labor market. We analyze the resulting unitless wedges and swap them in an equivalent growth model for the two Germanies to quantify their impact on output and economic welfare. The analysis reveals that the consequences of GDR’s rationing were multiple times more drastic than FRG’s unemployment. An observed faster output growth in the GDR stems from excessive labor input—depressing consumption-based welfare by a fourth—rather than from physical capital or TFP. Instead, GDR’s economic activity fell comparatively ten years further behind due to lower TFP growth. Lastly, persistent, substantial net inflows increase GDR’s welfare by 25 %. |
| Keywords: | Wedge-growth accounting, central planner allocation, quantity constraints |
| JEL: | E13 N14 O11 O47 P51 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aug:augsbe:347 |
| By: | Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) 1975 - 2023." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datendokumentation ; Datengewinnung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; IAB-Leistungsempfängerhistorik ; Stichprobenverfahren ; 10.5164/IAB.SIAB7523.de.en.v1 ; 1975-2023 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202502(de) |
| By: | Lafond, François |
| Abstract: | After a brief history of technological forecasting, I synthesize our work at the Institute for New Economic Thinking over the last decade developing time series models for performance curves. I conclude with ongoing efforts and a research agenda. |
| Keywords: | Performance curves, Experience curves, Diffusion curves, Patent networks |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-10 |
| By: | Claire-Lise Gaillard; Irène Gimenez |
| Abstract: | Ce document de travail propose un outillage méthodologique pour penser l'intimité en sciences sociales à partir d'une perspective historique. Les intimités sont caractérisées par trois composantes majeures : leur dimension relationnelle, le fait qu’il s’agisse de liens de proximité, et enfin le fait que ces liens prennent corps dans des configurations matérielles situées socialement et historiquement. Nous proposons de penser ensemble amitiés, couples et sexualités dans le continuum des intimités relationnelles pour mesurer ce que les porosités et les logiques transversales de ces liens. |
| Keywords: | couple, sexualité, intimité relationnelle, amitié, petites annonces, prison, France, Espagne, XIXème siècle, XXème siècle, POPULATION CARCERALE / PRISONERS, ESPAGNE / SPAIN, AMI / FRIENDS, 19e SIECLE / 19th CENTURY, FRANCE / FRANCE, RELATIONS AMOUREUSES / COURTSHIP, 20e SIECLE / 20th CENTURY, SEXUALITE / SEXUALITY |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:yvntdpyb4xmgdo9ydmfr |
| By: | Giuseppe Ciccarone; Giovanni Di Bartolomeo |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the role of the 1992 and 1993 agreements between the Italian social partners in facilitating a 'virtuous devaluation' of the lira and their lessons for today's economic policies. In particular, we examine how wage moderation, stimulated by these agreements, helped to manage economic and inflationary shocks, influencing income distribution and real wages. In light of the Modigliani and Tarantelli’s studies and our recent research, we highlight the importance of industrial relations and the international context, especially in the 1992 crisis, in promoting sustainable growth. Despite the evolution towards new European constraints and the single currency, the experience of those years suggests that deep distributional reforms remain essential for inclusive and non-inflationary growth. |
| Keywords: | 1992 currency crisis; virtuous devaluation; agreements between social partners; labor market institutions; economic shocks |
| JEL: | B22 E24 E25 E31 E64 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp259 |
| By: | Ramon Ramon-Muñoz (University of Barcelona); Guillermo Esteban-Oliver (University of Lleida); Josep-Maria Ramon-Muñoz (University of Murcia) |
| Abstract: | The living standard of a population is influenced by numerous factors, which, in addition, may change over time. Transport can be one of them as it acts as a mediator for other factors: it influences the price and supply of essential foods; it affects wages and income; it has an impact on the speed of contagious disease spread; it plays a role in the time to access health services. Using Catalonia as a case study, we explore the relationship between transport linkages and well-being in the late nineteenth century. To test this relationship, we rely on two rich and new datasets; one is on individual male heights, and the other consists of municipal market and port access. We conclude that the transport linkages-height nexus was positive, statistically significant and of a non-negligible magnitude, and, contrary to other studies, we do not find evidence that rural areas were negatively affected by market integration, although urban settings appear to have benefited the most. We suggest that the primary mechanisms underlying this positive association were improved food accessibility, along with urban economies and rural development. |
| Keywords: | Height, market access, living standards, railways, southern Europe |
| JEL: | I12 N33 O18 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0277 |
| By: | Hansch, Michelle (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin School of Economics, and RFBerlin) |
| Abstract: | "This report addresses the challenges that the introduction of the 2010 occupational classification system poses for consistent analysis of employment biographies in Germany. The official transcoding scheme between the old classification of 1988 and the new classification of 2010 has so far been too imprecise, causing structural breaks in the evolution of occupation-specific employment shares. These structural breaks complicate research on employment biographies, potentially biasing results and restricting the analysis period. To tackle these issues, I propose an algorithm that harmonizes the 1988 occupation codes, based on the Sample of Integrated Labor Market Biographies (SIAB). It involves aggregating the 1988 occupations with diverging trends and reassigning specific 2010 occupation codes to more applicable 1988 occupations. The harmonization algorithm reduces the total employment share of the 1988 occupations with severe structural breaks from 34 to about one percent, allowing for a consistent analysis of employment biographies for over 30 years." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien (SIAB) ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; 10.5164/IAB.SIAB7517.de.en.v1 |
| Date: | 2025–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfme:202502(en) |
| By: | Chiplunkar, Gaurav; Tatjana Kleineberg |
| Abstract: | The representation and significance of women in the labor force have grown significantly over the past five decades around the globe. Using nationally representative data from more than 90 countries, this paper documents distinct gender patterns in employment transitions across both sectors and occupations during this period. Using a model of occupational and sectoral choice and focusing on six major economies, the paper finds that declining gender barriers — defined as gender-specific distortions in employment and wages — were a key driver of the observed rise in female labor force participation, expansion of the service sector, and increases in real GDP per capita from 1970 to 2018, but with substantial variation across countries. |
| Date: | 2025–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11083 |
| By: | Daniel Fehrle (Kiel University, Department of Economics); Vasilij Konysev (University of Augsburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | German reunification in 1990 marked the first sudden integration of a socialist and capitalist economy. Despite East Germany’s (EG) economic catch-up with West Ger- many (WG), the integration remains unfinished, as indicated by per capita output in EG still being about one-third lower. To study this unfinished regional convergence, we apply wedge-growth accounting using a human capital-augmented, two-sector, two-region model, incorporating labor supply constraints to capture key qualitative differences between EG and WG. Our findings show that sectoral labor and capital wedges are similar within regions and have significantly converged between regions, with EG initially overusing inputs. While productivity in the nontradable goods sector has fully converged, the tradable sector in EG remains less productive than in WG. Counterfactual analysis suggests that this productivity gap, together with persistent net inflows to EG, explains EG’s lower economic activity. However, reducing the in- flows would result in significant welfare losses in EG. Furthermore, we account for the reunification event, identifying a substantial productivity catch-up in EG between 1989 and 1991. Our findings offer clear policy insights, highlighting the trade-offs between economic activity and fiscal transfers. |
| Keywords: | German reunification, Regional convergence, Wedge-growth accounting, Comparative inefficiencies |
| JEL: | E13 E24 N14 O11 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aug:augsbe:348 |
| By: | Popov, Alexander |
| Abstract: | During his reign from 1979 to 2005, Pope John Paul II visited 129 countries, more than the 263 Popes before him combined. I document a significant increase in exports to trading partners with a relatively high share of Catholics following a Pastoral visit, leading to a non-negligible increase in aggregate exports. The biggest beneficiaries in terms of increased trade are visited countries that are at lower stages of economic development and have relatively few Catholics and weak trade links. The effect is absent for other prominent episodes, such as global sports events or visits by political dignitaries. JEL Classification: Z12, O1, F1 |
| Keywords: | economic development, international trade, religion |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253037 |
| By: | Eric Schuss |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of increased access to higher education on labor demand, wages, and labor market structure. I focus on the quasi-experimental increase in the number of universities and universities of applied sciences in Bavaria since the 1970s and establishment of such higher education institutes under the "Future of Bavaria Offensive" program in the 1990s. I use administrative establishment-level data and find a positive but statistically insignificant effect on median wages resulting from expansion of higher education. While there is a negative but insignificant impact on wages of highly skilled workers, those without academic or vocational degree experience an increase in wages. I also find that training activities decline immediately after establishment of a new higher education institution. Further empirical analyses indicate that this decline is driven by changes in educational choices of school graduates rather than by labor demand of establishments. |
| Keywords: | Expansion of higher education, Labor demand, Wages, Event-study design |
| JEL: | I23 J23 J31 C21 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0239 |