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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Alex Trew; Stephan Heblich; ​Yanos Zylberberg; Dávid Nagy |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how cities’ industrial structure shapes their life and death. Our analysis exploits the large heterogeneity in the early composition of English and Welsh cities. We extract built-up clusters from early historical maps, identify settlements at the onset of the nineteenth century, and isolate exogenous variation in the nature of their rise during the transformation of the economy by the end of the nineteenth century. We then estimate the causal impact of cities’ population and industrial specialization on their later dynamics. We find that cities specializing in a small number of industries decline in the long run. We develop a dynamic spatial model of cities to isolate the forces which govern their life and death. Intratemporally, the model captures the role of amenities, land, local productivity and trade in explaining the distribution of economic activity across industries and cities. Intertemporally, the model can disentangle the role of aggregate industry dynamics from city-specific externalities. We find that the long-run dynamics of English and Welsh cities is explained to a large extent by such dynamic externalities `a la Jacobs. |
| Keywords: | quantitative economic geography, specialization, cities over time |
| JEL: | F63 N93 O14 R13 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1398 |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford); Fukao, Kyoji (Hitotsubashi University); Settsu, Tokihiko (Musashi University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses recently revised data on Japanese GDP to analyse the process by which Japan caught-up with the West. The new historical national accounts suggest that Japan was more than one-third richer in 1874 than suggested by Maddison, and that the Meiji period growth built on earlier development. We show that (1) despite trend GDP per capita growth during the Tokugawa shogunate, the catching-up process only started after 1890 with respect to Britain, and after World War 1 with respect to the United States and many European nations (2) although catching up was driven by the dynamic productivity performance of Japanese manufacturing, Japanese success in exporting manufactured goods was just as much driven by limiting the growth of real wages (3) despite claims that Japan was following a distinctive Asian path of labour-intensive industrialisation, capital played an important role in the catching-up process. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:749 |
| By: | Díez García, Rubén (Complutense University of Madrid) |
| Abstract: | The official constitution date of Sociedad Madrid-París was January 14, 1920. This company was created with the aim of starting up and managing a department store in the capital of Spain, following the model of other existing store chains already working and established in prominent cities throughout Europe and the United States at that time. The most illustrative example of this kind of business can be found in the magasins introduced by the French shopkeeper Aristide Boucicaut in 1852. The son of a modest milliner who had settled in Paris, he co-founded Le Bon Marché store. His vision of the business and new ideas soon led him to become head of the establishment. It was then that he began to put into practice the basic principles that would be used by all department stores in the future, and which numerous shopkeepers of the belle époque would later imitate. Not only in France but in urban developments during the processes of economic modernization of the main Western countries since the mid-XIX century. The French connection was an important boost for Madrid-Paris Society. Executives from Société Paris-France offered to Madrid-Paris businessmen his support and funding from the beginning, thanks to their experience as managers of one of the most important department store chains located in the neighboring country, Les Dames de France. Three years before, on January 4, 1924, opened its doors Madrid-París Department Store, representing the style of the grands magasins in the Iberian country. The opening was announced almost daily in the press during the final days of December 1923 and right up until the inaugural day. Indeed, advertising and promotion expenses fell between 40, 000 and 60, 000 pesetas. The King and Queen, Alfonso XIII, and Victoria Eugenia were invited, along with other representatives in the local political and economic spheres. Also in attendance were the executives of Madrid-Paris and Paris-France companies. A sumptuous gathering was organized, with lunch included. The press was likewise present to document such a magnificent event: “Crowning the building is an enormous dome, the finest in the world, measuring 30 meters in diameter. Once inside the "Madrid-París" Department Store, the visitor will be amazed by the magnificent sight of the round foyer and the surrounding departments, each displaying a wide variety of goods. A beautiful staircase spirals upwards from this gigantic foyer to the galleries on the first floor, and from there, other stairways lead up to the floors above” (El Sol newspaper, 1924). Although, Madrid-Paris closed its doors during the turbulent years of 1934-1935, more than ninety years later, another department store opened in the same building, -after a cruel Civil War, a long dictatorship, and an accelerated modernization process in the country. On this occasion, it was an Irish company and leading low-cost clothing retailer, Primark, who came back to live the luxury and magnificence of Madrid-Paris on October 15, 2015. Inspiring his business in downtown Madrid and inducing desire and consumption with classical symbolic resources of the epoch of his predecessor and ornamental architectural elements of the founding department stores, a well-established trend among some new department stores built and started up in recent times. |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x5hvu_v1 |
| By: | Sefa Awaworyi Churchill (RMIT University); Simon Chang (University of Western Australia); Russell Smyth (Monash University); Trong-Anh Trinh (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends prior theory linking present-day sex ratios to present-day propensity for entrepreneurship among men backward in time to explore the long-run gender origins of entrepreneurship. We argue that present-day propensity for entrepreneurship among men will be higher in neighbourhoods which had historically high sex ratios. We propose that high sex ratios generate attitudes and behaviours that imprint into cultural norms about gender roles and that vertical transmission within families create hysteresis in the evolution of these gender norms. To empirically test the theory, we employ the transport of convicts to the British colonies of New South Wales and Van Diemen’s Land in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries as a natural experiment to examine the long-run effect of gender norms on entrepreneurship in present-day Australia. We use a representative longitudinal dataset for the Australian population that provides information on the neighbourhood in which the participant lives, which we merge with data on the sex ratio in historical counties from the mid-nineteenth century. We find that men who live in neighbourhoods which had high historical sex ratios have a higher propensity for entrepreneurship. We present evidence consistent with the vertical transmission of gender norms within families being the likely mechanism. Arguments for policies to promote female entrepreneurship are typically couched in terms of gender norms representing a barrier to more women starting their own business. We present evidence consistent with gender norms contributing to gender differences in rates of entrepreneurship by being a spur for higher male entrepreneurship rather than a barrier to female entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | gender norms, sex ratios, entrepreneurship, Australia |
| JEL: | I31 J21 J22 N37 O10 Z13 Z18 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2025-06 |
| By: | Anjali Adukia; Richard Hornbeck; Daniel Keniston; Benjamin Lualdi |
| Abstract: | We examine the social construction of race during the United States' Reconstruction Era, a critical juncture between slavery and Jim Crow segregation. We show that people with the same detailed skin tone, recorded by the Freedman's Bank (1865-1874), were more likely racialized as White or Mulatto by the 1870 Census if they were wealthier or literate. Our estimates reveal the construction – or rather, reconstruction – of race in a period of unfulfilled potential for social transformation, setting a path for racial segregation and continued racial stratification. The endogenous historical construction of race also has implications for analyses that compare individuals by race or include race as a control variable. |
| JEL: | J15 N31 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33502 |
| By: | de Julian, Mikel |
| Abstract: | In the 1940s, almost 1.5 million african americans moved from the South to the North of the United States. Previous literature on the Great Migration has mostly focused on migrant outcomes and local effects in the North. This paper studies the impact of the Great Migration for those who stayed in the South. It employs linked, full-count census data for 1940 and 1950 as well as World War Two veteran records. Leveraging preexisting migrant networks and variation in war mobilization rates in the North, it identifies exogenous variation in out-migration from the South. It finds that a 10 percentage point increase in out-migration – the average rate in the 1940s – is associated with a 0.63 percentage point increase in a county’s income growth and a 0.72 years increase in its population’s educational attainment. Potential mechanisms include reductions in unemployment and farm mechanization. Taken together, these effects suggest the Great Migration led to economic convergence between the South and the North of the United States. |
| Date: | 2025–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5gw9p_v1 |
| By: | Boehm, Johannes; Chaney, Thomas |
| Abstract: | What caused the end of antiquity, the shift of economic activity away from the Mediterranean towards northern Europe? We assemble a large database of coin flows between the 4th and 10th century and use it to document the shifting patterns of exchange during this time period. We build a dynamic model of trade and money where coins gradually diffuse along trade routes. We estimate the parameters of this model and recover time-varying bi-lateral trade flows and real consumption from data on the spatial and temporal distribution of coins. Our estimates suggest that technical progress, increased minting, and to a lesser degree the fall in trade flows over the newly formed border between Islam and Christianity contributed to the relative growth of Muslim Spain and the Frankish lands of northern Europe and the decline of the Roman-Byzantine world. Our estimates are consistent with the increased urbanization of western and northern Europe relative to the eastern Mediterranean from the 8th to the 10th century. |
| Keywords: | gravity models; international trade; market access; diffusion |
| JEL: | F1 O1 N73 |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126785 |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Max Deter; Maria Greve; Michael Wyrwich |
| Abstract: | We investigate the causal relationship between inventor migration and regional innovation in the context of the large-scale migration shock from East to West Germany between World War II and the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961. Leveraging a newly constructed, century-spanning dataset on German patents and inventors, along with an innovative identification strategy based on surname proximity, we trace the trajectories of East German inventors and quantify their impact on innovation in West Germany. Our findings demonstrate a significant and persistent boost to patenting activities in regions with higher inflows of East German inventors, predominantly driven by advancements in chemistry and physics. We further validate the robustness of our identification strategy against alternative plausible mechanisms. We show in particular that the effect is stronger than the one caused by the migration of other high skilled workers and scientists. |
| Keywords: | patents, migration, Germany, iron curtain, innovation |
| Date: | 2025–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2076 |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford); Vonyó, Tamás (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | A pre-war policy of free trade in Britain and protection in Germany meant that Britain entered the war producing 35 per cent of its food needs while Germany produced 80 per cent. And yet Britain managed to feed itself adequately while Germany faced food shortages. Britain successfully adopted a range of counter-measures, exhibiting a capacity for substitution, allowing the economy to be flexible enough to survive the German blockade. The blockade accounted for at most around a quarter of the decline in German food consumption, which was largely the result of a collapse in domestic production caused by excessive mobilisation. German counter-measures were sometimes successful, but at other times indicate a less flexible economy with a limited capacity for substitution. The British government quickly reversed wartime policies to boost agricultural production and entered World War 2 equally vulnerable to submarine blockade, while Germany pursued autarkic policies to avoid dependence on seaborne imports. |
| Keywords: | Labour productivity, sectoral disaggregation, international comparison JEL Classification: N10, N30, O47, O57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:750 |
| By: | Redding, Stephen J.; Sturm, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We use the German bombing of London during the Second World War as an exogenous source of variation to provide evidence on neighborhood effects. We construct a newly-digitized dataset at the level of individual buildings on wartime destruction, property values, and socioeconomic composition in London before and after the Second World War. We develop a quantitative spatial model, in which heterogeneous groups of individuals endogenously sort across locations in response to differences in natural advantages, wartime destruction and neighborhood effects. We find substantial and highly localized neighborhood effects, which magnify the direct impact of wartime destruction, and make a substantial contribution to observed patterns of spatial sorting across locations. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; neighborhood effects; second world war; spatial sorting |
| JEL: | F16 N9 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126825 |
| By: | Gozen, Ruveyda Nur |
| Abstract: | How do stronger property rights for disadvantaged groups affect innovation? I investigate the impact of strengthened property rights for women on U.S. innovation by analyzing the Married Women's Property Acts, which granted equal property rights to women starting in 1845 in New York State. I examine the universe of granted patents from 1790 until 1901, exploiting the staggered adoption of the laws over time across states. The strengthening of women's property rights led to a 40% increase in patenting activity among women in the long run, with effects peaking about a decade after the laws were introduced. Importantly, women's innovations were not of lower quality (as measured by a novelty index based on patent text analysis) and did not generate negative effects on male innovation. Finally, I show that the main mechanism was through higher human capital accumulation among women inventors and innovation incentives, rather than an increase in participation in STEM fields, labor force participation, or relieving financial frictions. |
| Keywords: | innovations; gender; property rights; economic development; Ruveyda Nur Gozen |
| JEL: | J16 N00 O12 O34 P14 |
| Date: | 2024–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126790 |
| By: | Advani, Arun (University of Warwick & IFS); Ash, Elliott (ETH Zurich); Boltachka, Anton (ETH Zurich); Cai, David (LSE); Rasul, Imran (UCL & IFS) |
| Abstract: | Issues of racial justice and economic inequalities between racial and ethnic groups have risen to the top of public debate. Economists ability to contribute to these debates is based on the body of race-related research. We study the volume and content of race-related research in economics. We base our analysis on a corpus of 225 000 economics publications from 1960 to 2020 to which we apply an algorithmic approach to classify race-related work. We present three new facts. First, since 1960 less than 2% of economics publications have been race-related. There is an uptick in such work in the mid 1990s. Among the top-5 journals this is driven by the American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics and the Journal of Political Economy. Econometrica and the Review of Economic Studies have each cumulatively published fewer than 15 race-related articles since 1960. Second, on content, while over 50% of race-related publications in the 1970s focused on Black individuals, by the 2010s this had fallen to 20%. There has been a steady decline in the share of race-related research on discrimination since the 1980s, with a rise in the share of studies on identity. Finally, we apply our algorithm to NBER and CEPR working papers posted over the last four decades, to study an earlier stage of the research process. We document a balkanization of race-related research into a few fields, and its continued absence from many others – a result that holds even within the subset of research examining issues of inequality or diversity. We discuss implications of our findings for economists’ ability to contribute to debates on race and ethnicity in the economy. JEL Codes: A11 ; B41. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1548 |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford, CAGE and CEPR); Harrison, Mark (CAGE and Department of Economics, University of Warwick, and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We draw lessons from three centuries of economic warfare and sanctions. Establishing cause and effect is difficult because much else was typically changing during periods of conflict. Unintended consequences were everywhere. Impact was followed (and sometimes preceded) by adaptation so that countermeasures blunted the effectiveness of economic warfare measures and sanctions. This does not mean that the original measures were unimportant, because countermeasures were costly to the target country. Civilian lives and interests were collateral damage. Economic warfare and sanctions worked most effectively when complemented by fighting power either engaged in conventional warfare or credibly threatening war as a deterrent, and they were ineffective in its absence |
| Keywords: | complementary force ; conventional warfare ; displacement effect ; economic warfare ; economic sanctions. JEL Codes: H56 ; N4 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1547 |
| By: | Todd Gardner |
| Abstract: | In the middle of the twentieth century, the Bureau of the Budget, in conjunction with the Census Bureau and other federal statistical agencies, introduced a widely used unit of statistical geography, the county-based Standard Metropolitan Area. Metropolitan definitions since then have been generally regarded as comparable, but methodological changes have resulted in comparability issues, particularly among the largest and most complex metro areas. With the 2000 census came an effort to simplify the rules for defining metro areas. This study attempts to gather all available historical geographic and commuting data to apply the current rules for defining metro areas to create comparable statistical geography covering the period from 1940 to 2020. The changes that accompanied the 2000 census also brought a new category, "Micropolitan Statistical Areas, " which established a metro hierarchy. This research expands on this approach, using a more elaborate hierarchy based on the size of urban cores. The areas as delineated in this paper provide a consistent set of statistical geography that can be used in a wide variety of applications. |
| Keywords: | metropolitan, micropolitan, statistical geography, methodology |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-10 |
| By: | Hornbeck, Richard; Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand |
| Abstract: | We examine "agglomeration shadows" that emerge around large cities, which discourage some economic activities in nearby areas. Identifying agglomeration shadows is complicated, however, by endogenous city formation and "wave interference" that we show in simulations. We use the locations of ancient ports near the Mediterranean, which seeded modern cities, to estimate agglomeration shadows cast on nearby areas. We find that empirically, as in the simulations, detectable agglomeration shadows emerge for large cities around ancient ports. These patterns extend to modern city locations more generally and illustrate how encouraging growth in particular places can discourage growth of nearby areas. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration shadow; urban hierarchy; new economic geography |
| JEL: | R12 N9 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126770 |
| By: | Blaber, Richard Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper will argue that the collapse of advanced industrial society is inevitable on a global scale in the near-term (i.e., in a matter of decades from present), and that, furthermore, it will be irreversible. Industrial society, generally, will be seen as an aberration or anomaly in human history, one costly in terms of human life and suffering, as well as ecological devastation, lasting no more than three hundred years from the start of the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain in 1750 CE to its terminus in circa 2050 CE. If humanity is to survive, it must be in much smaller numbers, and with far less impact on the planet. |
| Date: | 2024–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gavz7_v1 |
| By: | Skarpelis, Anna Katharina Mosha (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Racial purity and supremacy were core to Nazi Germany’s claims to European dominion. At the same time, their very own “racial scientific” research showed that most Germans were “mixed-race.” Given the dissonance between phenotypical aspirations to a Nordic ideal and the reality of a largely non-blond German population, how did the National Socialist regime maintain legitimacy to rule? Anthropologists, bureaucrats and artists resolved this racial misalignment through horror vacui racialization, an excessive social classification that manifested as a racializing turn inwards aimed at Christian Germans. I theorize the role of culture and art in stabilizing race-based rule in authoritarian and colonial contexts through racial repair that realigns desired and actual racial self-understandings. The article shows how an ostensibly biologically essentialist regime strategically used racial relativism in science, politics and popular culture. I outline the sociological implications for the sociologies of culture; race and ethnicity; theories of the state and of empire and science and technology studies. |
| Date: | 2023–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8vk9r_v1 |
| By: | Benz, Pierre; Strebel, Michael A.; Di Capua, Roberto; Mach, André |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have focused on wealth elites’ housing, including their spatial and social exclusiveness. The insertion of the power elite in urban space has, however, largely been left unexplored. By combining positional and residential information on over 7, 400 urban elites, we study how academic, economic, and political elites’ residential patterns have evolved from 1890 to 2000 in the three largest Swiss cities (Basel, Geneva, Zurich). First, we uncover a long-term dynamic of suburbanization, which however does not result in even spatial dispersion: while gradually abandoning center cities, elites do not randomly disperse in the surrounding municipalities. Rather, they tend to settle in very specific areas. Second, we find that spatial differentiation of urban elites’ residences varies across elite categories: economic elites tend to geographically segregate from both academic and political elites over the course of the twentieth century and settle in more privileged areas. At the same time, academic and left political elites, while historically living in distinct neighborhoods, tend to converge at the end of the century, echoing new similarities in their profile. This highlights the importance of studying the urban power elites’ residential patterns in a long-term perspective. |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mkaqx_v1 |
| By: | Takeda, Kohei; Yamagishi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | We provide new theory and evidence on the resilience of internal city structure after a large shock, analyzing the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Exploiting newly digitized data, we document that the city structure recovered within five years after the bombing. Our new dynamic quantitative model of internal city structure incorporates commuting, forward-looking location choices, migration frictions, agglomeration forces, and heterogeneous location fundamentals. Strong agglomeration forces in our estimated model explain Hiroshima's recovery, and we find an alternative equilibrium where the city center did not recover. These results highlight the role of agglomeration forces, multiple equilibria, and expectations in urban dynamics. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; history; expectations; atomic bombing; spatial dynamics |
| JEL: | C73 N45 O18 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126823 |
| By: | Paul Dolan; Richard Layard; Gillian Tett; Helen Ward |
| Abstract: | The late Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman had a long association with CEP. At an LSE event, Richard Layard, Gillian Tett and Paul Dolan discussed how his work influenced psychology, economics and society - and their experience of researching and debating with him. |
| Keywords: | behavioural economics, kahneman |
| Date: | 2025–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:697 |
| By: | Colmer, Jonathan; Qin, Suvy; Voorheis, John; Walker, Reed |
| Abstract: | This paper uses administrative tax records linked to Census demographic data and high-resolution measures of fine small particulate (PM2.5) exposure to study the evolution of the Black-White pollution exposure gap over the past 40 years. In doing so, we focus on the various ways in which income may have contributed to these changes using a statistical decomposition. We decompose the overall change in the Black-White PM2.5 exposure gap into (1) components that stem from rank-preserving compression in the overall pollution distribution and (2) changes that stem from a reordering of Black and White households within the pollution distribution. We find a significant narrowing of the Black-White PM2.5 exposure gap over this time period that is overwhelmingly driven by rank-preserving changes rather than positional changes. However, the relative positions of Black and White households at the upper end of the pollution distribution have meaningfully shifted in the most recent years. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; income; environmental inequality; decomposition |
| JEL: | H00 H40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2024–01–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126758 |
| By: | Christof Brandtner (EM - EMLyon Business School); Parham Ashur; Bhargav Srinivasa-Desikan |
| Abstract: | How does a daring idea like the utopia of affordable housing weather a century of change? The persistence of institutions—shared meanings that shape individual actions—is a central feature of organizational life. Recent scholarship stresses that institutions endure not because they are static but because they evolve as individuals maintain them. However, the search for micro-foundations has sidelined the macro-conditions of such dynamic persistence. Building on structural studies of meaning, we propose and illustrate a new, complementary theory-method package that can reveal how ideas are embedded and evolve in meaning structures. Dynamic modeling of discourse (DMD) tracks changing cultural meanings over time, doing justice to the assumption that institutional persistence can result from fluid changes in how institutions are instantiated as observable patterns of interactions at any given time. We develop three diagnostic measures for tracking both institutions and their instantiations in large corpora. Applying DMD to a 140-year corpus of reports of the City of Vienna, Austria, we show that the persistence of public housing as an institution was possible due to periodically changing instantiations—such as whether public housing policies subsidize landlords or tenants—with shifting affiliations to broader meanings. Our paper unlocks methodological doors to a dynamic, contextual approach to studying institutions that complements archival and ethnographic methods. It allows researchers to test theory-led expectations about persistence and provides a mixed-methods tool for historical research on organizations. We conclude with implications for structural studies of meaning, persistence, and change. |
| Keywords: | Institutional theory, Theoretical Perspectives, Culture, Topics, Organizational development and change, Public sector and administration, Historical, Research Design and Data Collection, Longitudinal quantitative, Archival data, secondary data, Content analysis, quantitative, Data Analysis |
| Date: | 2025–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04907529 |
| By: | Gemma Dipoppa; Shanker Satyanath |
| Abstract: | Official reports from the International Labor Organization have been increasingly highlighting the pervasive presence of forced labor, especially involving migrants, in the developed world. There is, however, little work explaining the demand-side determinants of modern forced labor. We address this gap by focusing on variations in modern forced labor within a single developed country (Italy). Regression discontinuity and triple differences designs show that modern forced labor is strongly associated with prior exposure to the ideology of the Italian Fascist regime (1922-43) which emphasized the subjugation of non-white ethnic groups (the primary subjects of forced labor). |
| Keywords: | migration, ideology, political extremism, labor coercion |
| JEL: | J7 J15 J81 O15 P00 Z00 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1395 |
| By: | Colantone, Italo; Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P.; Takeda, Kohei |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of globalization on intergenerational income mobility. Exploiting U.S. data, we find that stronger trade exposure at the commuting zone level lowers the intergenerational income mobility of residents. In particular, higher exposure to Chinese import competition lowers the income mobility of the cohort of U.S. workers born in 1980-1982. We present a general equilibrium theory in which path dependence in sector choice of individuals over generations and mobility frictions determine the dynamics of industrial compositions across locations in a country. The theory predicts that rising import competition reduces intergenerational income mobility, consistent with the empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | import competition; distributional consequences; intergenerational income mobility |
| JEL: | F2 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126781 |
| By: | Skwarecki, Beth |
| Abstract: | Duncan Heights is an abandoned cemetery near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania with known burials from 1931 to 1961. Parkview and, later, Lakeview were also used as names for this cemetery. The original records have been lost, and only a few dozen headstones are present and legible. However, I have used death certificates to partially reconstruct the burial records. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of known burials from June of 1931, when the cemetery opened, to June of 1935, when a Works Progress Administration (WPA) survey reported that there were 400 graves, including 10 veterans. My analysis, based on an extensive examination of Allegheny County death certificates, found that the number of people buried in that timeframe was more than double what the WPA reported. This examination revealed death certificates for 822 people, including all of the reported 10 veterans. Decedents were 66.2% Black and 33.7% white. The median age at death was 40. Infants 1 year and under made up 13.6% of burials. From these results, I identify three distinct populations of burials. One consists of mainly Black Pittsburghers buried by Black funeral directors. A second, much smaller, group consists of white decedents buried under the Parkview Cemetery name. Finally, the largest group is roughly 50% white and includes a high proportion of both stillborn infants and adult institutional patients. |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e85aj_v1 |
| By: | Zárate-Solano, Héctor M.; Melo-Becerra, Ligia Alba; Iregui-Bohórquez, Ana María; Ramírez-Giraldo, María Teresa; Ana Maria Tribin Uribe |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of Colombian women's participation in the labor market from 1960 to 2018, shedding light on the complex factors that influence their labor opportunities. The study emphasizes the significance of the historical context in understanding these factors. This research uncovers nuanced insights using a two-step methodology involving principal component analysis and time-varying effect modeling. The results indicate that the transition from high to low fertility rates significantly influenced female labor participation until the late 1970s. Educational advancements, economic growth, and changing marital dynamics also played a role in shaping evolving patterns. From 1980 to 1995, factors such as diminishing fertility, declining infant mortality, and varying economic conditions influenced women's labor involvement. From 1995 to 2010, higher education emerged as a key driver, accompanied by shifting societal norms, and from 2010 to 2018, the period witnessed positive contributions from fertility rates, minimum wage, and male labor participation. This study underscores the intricate relationship between education, demographics, social norms, and economics in shaping women's labor force participation, providing valuable insights for gender-inclusive policies and promoting women's economic empowerment. |
| Date: | 2023–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10653 |
| By: | Jan C. van Ours (Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands; CEPR; Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School) |
| Abstract: | Around 50 years ago, the Netherlands decriminalized cannabis for recreational use. This paper uses retrospective data on the ages at which individuals began and ceased cannabis use to reconstruct its prevalence in Amsterdam during the period surrounding the policy change. This approach enables a detailed analysis of the policy’s effects. The main conclusion is that the introduction of this policy did not lead to an increase in the prevalence of cannabis use. |
| Keywords: | cannabis use, cannabis policy, age of onset |
| JEL: | I12 I18 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2025-03 |
| By: | Biagi, Victoria; Cardazzi, Alexander; Porreca, Zachary |
| Abstract: | Violence is often viewed as an intrinsic feature of illicit markets, driven by competition, disputes, and predation. We argue that the connection between violence and markets is not exclusive to illicit markets and that in the absence of strong institutions these factors exist ubiquitously. Using an estimator of spatial concentration, we document the empirical relationship between violence and markets in the 14th century. We then employ a large language model to analyze the coroner's accounts of the era's homicides, finding that many of these incidents were driven by avoidable escalations of business-related disputes. Employing a novel difference-in-differences estimator for spatial concentration, we proceed to causally identify the impacts of the introduction of London's first professional police force in the 19th century on this concentration. We find that the police force's introduction led to a 54% reduction in the degree of concentration of violence around marketplaces. Our findings suggest that it is not the nature of the commodities being sold in illicit markets that drives violence, but is rather the absence of formal institutions of enforcement and dispute resolution. |
| Keywords: | marketplace violence, medieval violence, spatial concentration, local large language model |
| JEL: | K42 N93 R12 C21 K40 N90 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1569 |
| By: | Melad, Kris Ann M. |
| Abstract: | This research harmonizes Philippine Census of Population and Housing (CPH) data from 1970 to 2020 to address data consistency challenges across five decades. The study systematically reconciles evolving variable definitions, classification systems, and measurement scales to create a unified longitudinal dataset. Key harmonization challenges include accommodating changes in the education system, such as the K-12 reforms, tracking modifications to administrative boundaries over the years, managing the expanding data scope across census years, and addressing historical data preservation issues, particularly for the 1970 and 1980 censuses. The research involved the creation of translation tables and crosswalks for major classification systems, including the Philippine Standard Geographic Classification (PSGC), Philippine Standard Occupational Classification (PSOC), and Philippine Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC). Variable-specific harmonization protocols and guidelines for researchers using the harmonized data are also documented. The harmonization process standardized core demographic variables across all periods while preserving more detailed classifications where possible, though some variables necessarily lost granularity when harmonized to their lowest common denominator. Beyond producing a consistent dataset for longitudinal analysis, this study contributes to PIDS's agenda of strengthening statistical systems for evidence-based policymaking. The paper concludes with recommendations for improving future census data collection and harmonization practices to support effective policy development in the Philippines. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | census;data harmonization;variable standardization;data translation;Philippine Statistical System |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-44 |
| By: | Ha, Jongrim; Kose, Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska Lieselotte |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the past half-century. It estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model where a wide range of shocks, including global demand, supply, oil price, and interest rate shocks, are identified through narrative sign restrictions motivated by the predictions of a simple dynamic general equilibrium model. The authors report three main results. First, oil price shocks followed by global demand shocks explained the lion’s share of variation in global inflation. Second, the contribution of global demand and oil price shocks increased over time, from 56 percent during 1970–1985 to 65 percent during 2001–2022, whereas the importance of global supply shocks declined. Since the pandemic, global demand and oil price shocks have accounted for most of the variation in global inflation. Finally, oil price shocks played a much smaller role in global core CPI inflation variation, for which global supply shocks were the main source of variation. These results are robust to various sensitivity exercises, including alternative definitions of global variables, different samples of countries, and additional narrative restrictions. |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10648 |
| By: | Yılmaz, Gamze |
| Abstract: | By examining the honorifics and speech levels in the Korean and English translations of Antoine de Saint-Exupéry's "Le Petit Prince", the communication differences between the two communities were compared. The communication between the characters in this literary work shows the differences between the two cultures. Particular emphasis was placed on the strict rules of respect in Korean. Comparative discourse analysis aims to show the impact of culture on translation studies by considering the relationships between language and culture. This study presents how respect and courtesy can change in societies where different languages are spoken. |
| Date: | 2024–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ca3uk_v1 |
| By: | Zueras, Pilar; Menacho, Teresa; Gómez-Casillas, Amalia; Medina, Antonio; Blanes, Amand; Esteve, Albert |
| Abstract: | Desde la modernización del sistema estadístico español en el siglo XIX, las administraciones públicas han recogido regularmente cuantiosos volúmenes de datos poblacionales a nivel municipal. Sin embargo, esta información no suele estar disponible en condiciones óptimas para su reutilización debido a su dispersión en diferentes fuentes y requiere un monumental esfuerzo de transcripción, corrección y homogeneización para garantizar su comparabilidad temporal y geográfica. El Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics (CED) se ha encargado de esta tarea generando una base de datos geo-referenciados que han permitido conformar grandes series temporales, reconstruyendo la historia del siglo XX de las características poblacionales de los municipios españoles. Para este fin, se han realizado las transcripciones de los Censos del siglo XX que constaban en formato de imagen, de publicación o ya informatizados, y se han realizado las correcciones y las homogeneizaciones para garantizar su comparabilidad geográfica y temporal. Fruto de este esfuerzo ha resultado una base de datos con una cobertura temporal que abarca el periodo 1900-2011 y que permite explorar las características de la población en este periodo, desagregada por sexo, nivel educativo, estado civil, población de hecho y de derecho, número de hogares y personas por hogar, siempre que los datos lo posibiliten. En lo que hace referencia a la cobertura geográfica, estos datos están disponibles para diferentes niveles administrativos: municipal, provincial y autonómico. Esta base de datos está disponible en acceso abierto en el repositorio digital del Explorador Social, exploradorsocial.es, una plataforma ágil e interactiva de acceso abierto, que permite la visualización de los datos cartográficamente, a la vez que posibilita su descarga en diferentes formatos. En suma, el CED, alineándose a los estándares FAIR de la Comisión Europea en materia de acceso abierto, ha generado una base de datos históricos que es de fácil acceso, en una plataforma que se caracteriza por su interoperabilidad (se pueden descargar los datos en formatos que posibilitan su utilización a través de otros programas), y promoviendo su reutilización. De esta manera, el CED devuelve al sistema estadístico y a la población en general los datos que le permitirán sumergirse en su historia y enlazarla con el presente. |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rh82m_v1 |
| By: | Xuan Hoang, Trung |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the context of the Islamic Republic of Iran-Iraq war in 1980–88 to study the long-term impacts of exposure to the war during school years on educational attainment and labor market outcomes in Iraq. The analysis uses an event study and the Iraq Household Socio-Economic Surveys 2006–2007. The findings show that the Islamic Republic of Iran-Iraq conflict had a negative impact on the social welfare of men who were exposed to the war, including on social security, pension plan, health care, paid leave, and job permanence, while little impact on women is found. Additionally, the conflict reduced wages for both men and women. Furthermore, men who were exposed to the conflict were more likely to work in dangerous jobs or without air conditioning, while no evidence on this is found for women. The paper also shows the impact of the intensity of the Islamic Republic of Iran-Iraq war on educational attainment and labor market outcomes. It documents the education channel through which the war affects labor market outcomes, showing that the war decreased the educational levels of men and women born between 1971 and 1981. The findings are robust to a variety of robustness checks and falsification tests. |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10691 |
| By: | Barbara Tversky |
| Abstract: | Following an LSE event discussing the legacy of Daniel Kahneman (5 March 1934 to 27 March 2024), Barbara Tversky remembers him and his work. |
| Date: | 2025–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:698 |
| By: | Gaddy, Hampton; Gargiulo, Maria |
| Abstract: | In the absence of high-quality data, death tolls are often estimated using ad hoc methods. One understudied class of methods, which we term the growth rate discontinuity method (GRDM), estimates the size of death tolls by projecting between pre- and post-crisis population estimates with crude growth rates and then subtracting the projected values. Despite its simplicity, this method is the source of prominent death toll estimates for the Black Death, the 1918 influenza pandemic, the Great Chinese Famine, and the Rwandan genocide, among others. In this article, we review the use and validity of GRDM. Using statistical simulation and comparisons to the results of well-validated demographic methods, we assess the accuracy, precision, and biases of this method for estimating mortality in absolute and relative terms. We find that GRDM requires precision in its inputs to an extent rarely possible in contexts of interest. If one has sufficient data to specify GRDM well, one can likely also use a more reliable method; if one lacks that data, the estimates produced by the method are so sensitive to data quality issues and other assumptions that they cannot be considered informative. These findings create problems for existing demographic and econometric work that has used GRDM to analyze mortality crises for which demographic data is scarce. |
| Date: | 2024–07–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nrpb3_v1 |
| By: | Colasurdo, Andrea; Omenti, Riccardo |
| Abstract: | Background: Online genealogies are promising data sources for demographic research, but their limitations are understudied. This paper takes a critical approach to evaluating the potential strengths and weaknesses of using online genealogical data for population studies. Objective: We propose novel measures to assess the completeness and the quality of demographic variables in the FamiLinx data at both the individual and the familial level over the 1600-1900 period. Utilizing Sweden as a test country, we investigate how the age-sex distribution and the mortality levels of the digital population extracted from FamiLinx diverge from the registered population. Method: We employ descriptive statistics, logistic regression modeling, and standard life table techniques for our measures of completeness and quality. Results: When one demographic variable is available, researchers can effectively anticipate the availability of other demographic information. The completeness and the quality of the demographic variables within the kinship networks are markedly higher for individuals with more complete and accurate demographic information. Lower mortality levels are observed in populations drawn from FamiLinx, which may be attributed to selectivity bias in favor of individuals experiencing more favorable demographic conditions. However, the representativeness of genealogical populations improved toward the end of the 19th century, especially when selecting individuals with more accurate birth and death dates. Conclusions: FamiLinx offers new opportunities for demographic research, due to its vast amount of individual information from various historical populations and their recorded kinship ties. Nonetheless, missing values and accuracy in its demographic information are selective. This selectivity needs to be addressed. |
| Date: | 2024–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:62yxm_v1 |
| By: | Maxime Ghazarian (CRISES - Centre de Recherches Interdisciplinaires en Sciences humaines et Sociales de Montpellier - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3) |
| Abstract: | The conference Europeanisations from the Bottom and from the Margins, organised by Raphaëlle Ruppen Coutaz, Carmen Crozier, and Philippe Vonnard (Lausanne), originates from discussions initiated in 2018 between Raphaëlle Ruppen Coutaz and Philippe Vonnard as part of their collaboration on the project Écrire une histoire nouvelle de l'Europe (EHNE, Writing a New History of Europe). After an interruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the project was revived and enriched by the ongoing research of Carmen Crozier, eventually materialising in the form of this international conference. In their general introduction, the organisers situated their reflections within the theoretical frameworks of Europeanisation proposed by Kiran Klaus Patel and Eckart von Hirschhausen (2010), as well as Christian Wenkel (2021). These scholars conceptualise Europeanisation as encompassing a wide range of political, social, economic, and cultural processes. Such dynamics, often unintentional, are marked by exchanges, imitations, and entanglements whose effects extend beyond the institutional boundaries of the European Union (EU). Building upon these foundational perspectives, the conference sought to explore, refine, and critically interrogate these approaches. Particular attention was given to bottom-up dynamics, alongside domains such as culture, education, science, and sport, which are frequently marginalised in institutionally focused analyses. Within this framework, Europeanisation is no longer understood exclusively as a phenomenon tied to EU integration. Instead, it is examined through the lens of peripheral actors, transnational initiatives, and unexpected spaces, highlighting their contributions to the (re)definition of Europe from the 19th century to the present. |
| Abstract: | Le colloque Europeanisations from the Bottom and from the Margins, organisé par RAPHAËLLE RUPPEN COUTAZ, CARMEN CROZIER et PHILIPPE VONNARD (Lausanne), s'appuie sur des échanges entamés dès 2018 entre Raphaëlle Ruppen Coutaz et Philippe Vonnard, dans le cadre de leur collaboration au projet « Écrire une histoire nouvelle de l'Europe » (EHNE). Après une interruption liée à la pandémie, ce projet a été relancé et a bénéficié de l'inspiration des recherches en cours de Carmen Crozier, jusqu'à sa concrétisation sous la forme du présent colloque international. Dans leur introduction générale, les organisateurs ont inscrit leurs réflexions dans le prolongement des définitions de l'européanisation proposées par Kiran Klaus Patel et Eckart von Hirschhausen (2010) et Christian Wenkel (2021). Selon ces auteurs, l'européanisation englobe un vaste éventail de processus politiques, sociaux, économiques et culturels. Ces dynamiques, souvent non intentionnelles, sont marquées par des échanges, des imitations, des enchevêtrements, dont les effets se font sentir au-delà du cadre strict de l'Union européenne (UE). Sur ces bases, le colloque entendait explorer, affiner et questionner ces approches. Il s'est concentré sur les dynamiques bottom-up, ainsi que sur la culture, l'éducation, la science ou le sport, souvent négligés par la perspective institutionnelle. Dans ce cadre, il ne s'agit plus de considérer l'européanisation comme un phénomène lié uniquement à l'intégration communautaire, mais d'observer comment, depuis le XIX e siècle jusqu'à nos jours, des acteurs périphériques, des initiatives transnationales ou des lieux inattendus ont participé à la (re)définition de l'Europe. |
| Keywords: | Europeanisation, European Union, Cold War, Top-down / bottom-up approaches, Education, International Relations, Diplomacy, Fascism, Administration, Identities, Public Mobilisations, Leisure activities, Activités de loisirs, Europe, Union européenne, Européanisation, Guerre froide, Éducation, Relations internationales, Diplomatie, Fascisme, Identités, Mobilisations publiques |
| Date: | 2025–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04901318 |
| By: | Bou Habib, Chadi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the similarities between the economy of 1912 Mount Lebanon on the eve of the famine of 1916 and the economy of 2004 Lebanon that set the stage for the major economic and social crisis of 2019. A simple general equilibrium simulation shows that, as long as the Lebanese economy remains reliant on foreign inflows, crises will persist, with different manifestations. Regardless of the period considered, foreign inflows increase domestic prices and induce real appreciation. Low productive capacities and insufficient job creation lead to high emigration. Emigration increases the reliance on foreign inflows, which in turn increase domestic prices and reduce competitiveness, hence triggering further emigration and further reliance on foreign inflows. Income and prices increase, but exports decline, and growth remains volatile. The interruption of the flows of capital and goods and the impossibility to migrate due to the First World War drove Lebanon into starvation in 1916. The interruption of inflows of capital in 2019 led to a major crisis and massive outmigration, as predicted through the simulations based on the structure of the Lebanese economy in 2004. The simulations effectively capture the impact of external shocks on the Lebanese economy and closely align with the actual changes in economic variables during 2005 to 2020. |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10688 |
| By: | Ruveyda Nur Gozen |
| Abstract: | Breakthrough innovations occurred when women obtained the right to reap economic rewards from their inventions. Ruveyda Nur Gozen shows how such inclusive policies are a critical driver of economic growth. |
| Keywords: | equality, gender, Technological change, women, US Economy, patents |
| Date: | 2025–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:693 |
| By: | George, Siddharth; Rao, Vijayendra; Sharan, M. R. |
| Abstract: | In 1992, the 73rd Amendment to the Indian Constitution created 250, 000 village democracies (called Gram Panchayats) covering 800 million citizens. It mandated regular elections, deliberative spaces, and political reservations for women and disadvantaged castes. The unprecedented variation in democratic experience that emerged from this has resulted in a large body of research that provides insights into the intersection between democracy, governance, and development. This paper reviews this literature, showing that India’s democratic trajectory has been shaped by four broad forces: a 3, 000 year tradition of debate and deliberation, colonial policies, the contrasting ideologies of central players in the formation of modern India—Gandhi and Ambedkar—and the 73rd Amendment. The paper distills key findings from the empirical literature on the effectiveness of local politicians and bureaucrats, political reservations, public finance, deliberative democracy, and service delivery. It concludes with a set of policy recommendations for improving the functioning of the Panchayats in India, emphasizing the need for greater devolution and improved local fiscal capacity. It also argues that urban governments in India would benefit from learning from the experience of Gram Panchayats. |
| Date: | 2024–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10793 |