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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
| By: | Claudia Goldin |
| Abstract: | Fertility levels have greatly decreased in virtually every nation in the world, but the timing of the decline has differed even among developed countries. In Europe, Asia, and North America, total fertility rates of some nations dipped below the magic replacement figure of 2.1 as early as the 1970s. But in other nations, fertility rates remained substantial until the 1990s but plummeted subsequently. This paper addresses why some countries in Europe and Asia with moderate fertility levels in 1980s, have become the “lowest-low” nations today (total fertility rates of less than 1.3), whereas those that decreased earlier have not. Also addressed is why the crossover point for the two groups of nations was around the 1980s and 1990s. An important factor that distinguishes the two groups is their economic growth in the 1960s and 1970s. Countries with “lowest low” fertility rates today experienced rapid growth in GNP per capita after a long period of stagnation or decline. They were catapulted into modernity, but the beliefs, values, and traditions of their citizens changed more slowly. Thus, swift economic change may lead to both generational and gendered conflicts that result in a rapid decrease in the total fertility rate. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J16 N30 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33311 |
| By: | Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez; Carlos A. Arango-Arango; Luis Eduardo Castellanos-Rodríguez |
| Abstract: | En este documento se analiza la evolución del sistema de pagos en Colombia en los cien años transcurridos desde la creación del Banco de la República. El análisis recorre los desarrollos institucionales y hechos estilizados de las tendencias de largo plazo en la adopción, uso y declive relativo del efectivo y el cheque, los cuales dominaron el panorama de pagos durante prácticamente todo el siglo XX, y explora los factores macroeconómicos que han determinado su demanda. Alrededor de esta última se ilustran hitos relevantes del avance del sistema financiero en estos cien años desde una óptica novedosa y poco explorada en nuestro país y en América Latina, y se contextualiza la emergencia de innovaciones en instrumentos y medios de pago electrónicos en busca de reducir costos transaccionales, en un mercado de gran dinamismo desde finales de los años noventa del siglo pasado y las primeras décadas del siglo XXI. **** This document analyzes the evolution of the payment system in Colombia over the hundred years since the creation of the Banco de la República. The analysis covers institutional developments and stylized facts of long-term trends in the adoption, use, and relative decline of cash and checks, which dominated the payment landscape throughout almost the entire 20th century. It explores the macroeconomic factors that have driven their demand. The document illustrates relevant milestones in the advancement of the financial system over these hundred years from a novel and little-explored perspective in Colombia and in Latin America. It also contextualizes the emergence of innovations in electronic payment instruments and methods, aiming to reduce transactional costs in a highly dynamic market since the late 1990s and the first decades of the 21st century. |
| Keywords: | sistema monetario, sistema de pagos, cheques, efectivo, pagos electrónicos, historia financiera de América Latina, compensación interbancaria, medios de pago, instrumentos de pago, monetary system, payment system, checks, cash, electronic payments, financial history of Latin America, interbank clearing, means of payment, payment instruments |
| JEL: | E40 E41 E42 E44 N26 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1290 |
| By: | John C. Williams |
| Abstract: | Remarks at New York Fed Alumni: Celebrating 100 Years of Making Our Mission Possible, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City. |
| Keywords: | New York Fed; Centennial; history |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:99198 |
| By: | Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Petar Soric (University of Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between economic uncertainty and the redistributive effect of taxes and government transfers in the UK and the US over the period 1980-2021. We find that the sign of the relationship between uncertainty and redistribution goes from being negative at the beginning of the 1980s to taking a positive and significant sign in recent years. In the US, economic uncertainty Granger-causes the redistributive effect of taxes and transfers in the short run, but the same does not hold for the UK. |
| Keywords: | economic uncertainty; redistributive policy; income inequality; taxes; government transfers. JEL classification: C50; D30; E62; H50 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202405 |
| By: | Sabrina Di Addario; Michela Giorcelli; Agata Maida |
| Abstract: | The share of female inventors remains significantly lower than that of men in both developed and developing countries. This paper studies gender bias in patenting activity, using a unique dataset that matches Italian administrative employer-employee records both to patent data from the European Patent Office (1987-2005) and to municipality-level information on medieval guilds from the Italian Central Archive of State. We empirically verify whether women's low propensity to patent can be explained by the historical local conception of women's role in society, which we measure with the share of women in guild founders from the Middle Ages. The results indicate that the presence of women in Medieval guilds is associated with a higher probability of observing a female inventor and a higher number of yearly patent submissions by women. |
| Keywords: | patents, women, inventors, guilds |
| JEL: | J60 |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:500 |
| By: | Colagrossi, Marco (European Commission); Deiana, Claudio (University of Cagliari and CRENoS); Geraci, Andrea (University of Pavia); Giua, Ludovica (University of Cagliari and CRENoS); Mazzarella, Gianluca (University of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | We reconstruct the genealogical tree of all individuals ever appearing in Dutch municipalities records since 1995. Using microdata from tax authorities, we compute a measure of their permanent earnings and assess the degree to which the intergenerational transmission process is heterogeneous. Our analysis relies on traditional estimates as well as model assuming a latent transmission of family endowments. In both cases, we show that offspring born into families belonging to the lowest percentiles of the income distribution show a higher degree of intergenerational persistence. The same applies when looking at heterogeneity in intergenerational mobility along the grandparental wealth, potentially suggesting the existence of poverty traps. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, sibling correlations, inequality |
| JEL: | J62 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202401 |
| By: | Jaedo Choi; Younghun Shim |
| Abstract: | We study how one-time subsidies for adoption of modern technology drove Korea's industrialization in the 1970s. Leveraging unique historical data, we provide causal evidence consistent with coordination failures: adoption improved adopters' performance and generated local spillovers, with firms more likely to adopt when other local firms had already adopted. We incorporate these findings into a quantitative model, where the potential for multiple steady states depends on parameters mapped to the causal estimates. In our calibrated model, Korea's one-time subsidies shifted its economy to a more industrialized steady state, increasing heavy manufacturing's GDP share by 8.6% and export intensity by 16.2%. Larger market access amplifies the effects of these subsidies, as the gains from adoption increase with firms' scale. |
| Keywords: | Big push; Industrialization; Coordination failure; Complementarity; Local spillover; Market access |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/259 |
| By: | Grenet, Julien (Paris School of Economics and CNRS); Grönqvist, Hans (Department of Economics and Statistics); Hertegård, Edvin (SOFI, Stockholm University); Nybom, Martin (IFAU, Uppsala University); Stuhler, Jan (Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We study how students adjust their early career choices in response to economic crises, and how this behavioral response affects their long-run labor market outcomes. We specifically examine the context of the severe recession that struck Sweden in the early 1990s, which disproportionally affected the manufacturing and construction sectors. We find that students who experienced paternal job loss in these heavily affected sectors were more likely to choose high school programs linked to sectors less impacted by the recession. These individuals achieved better labor market outcomes in adulthood, including higher employment rates and career earnings. Our findings are consistent with informational frictions being a key obstacle to structural change, and we identify career choice as an important mechanism through which recessions reshape labor markets in the very long run. |
| Keywords: | High School Major; Recession; Information Frictions; Structural Change |
| JEL: | E32 I25 J24 J63 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2024_013 |
| By: | Mohsin Abbas Syed (Legal Consultant) |
| Abstract: | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Immovable property is a precious and limited resource. It has always attracted human attention for ownership and possession. Be it the feudal system of the West or the Jagir system of the Indian subcontinent, immovable property played a signiï¬ cant role in evolving social structures in any society. Even the communist philosophy revolved around it. During the past more than a century, the proper use of immovable property has played a pivotal role in the economic development of various nations. This has been done through systemic reforms by enacting laws for the protection and enforcement of property rights. This report takes the reader from the introduction of property and property rights, their etymology and history to the protection and enforcement of property rights in various jurisdictions of the world. The position of Pakistan in property rights protection based on international reviews, indices, and rankings is captured to identify problems relating to such rights. It contains a detailed introduction and analysis of the Torrens system before analyzing gaps in the property rights system of laws in Punjab. Based on these deliberations, certain conclusions have been drawn and speciï¬ c recommendations have been made for systemic reforms requiring legislative intervention. Property rights are internationally recognised rights and almost every nation has laws for the protection of private property rights. Apart from a hiatus of less than a century of communism, private property rights remained a predominant feature of every nations legal system. Even the present-day communist nations have started creating room for private property rights for economic development. After independence, Pakistan did not focus on property rights except for an unï¬ nished agenda of land reforms. The digitisation of land records is more of an administrative reform than bringing a sea change in the system of property rights. The Constitution expressly provides for property rights but the laws to protect those rights were mostly made during the colonial era with a different mindset and for different times. Land laws applicable to rural areas, transfer of property laws, eminent domain law, legal restrictions on land alienation, and property dispute settlement laws are all colonial laws inherited by the state after independence. Some of the laws relating to immovable property passed after independence, like preemption, possession, katchi abadis, and electronic transactions laws went the other way instead of promoting property rights. The law relating to strata titles and condominiums is conspicuously missing from the property laws of Punjab. As expected, Pakistan fared poorly on all the international indices on property rights. It has consistently performed poorly on the World Bank, Infrastructural Development Associations Country Policy, and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) on property rights, and occupies 156th rank out of 175 countries ranked on the property rights index of the Heritage Foundation. Worse still is the 104th rank out of 125 countries on the International Property Rights Index (IPRI). It consistently ranked very low on the measure registering property in the erstwhile Doing Business Index of the World Bank. A similar ranking is expected in the forthcoming B-READY Index of the World Bank which will replace the Doing Business Index. The existing property law reforms in Punjab are sporadic and are not likely to provide an impetus for economic revival. Reform measures should come as a package and not cover a single aspect of property-related laws. In recent years, it did make some progress on the digitisation of land records, ensuring inherited property rights of women and honouring tenancy agreements other than agricultural tenancies. A comparative analysis of the legal systems relating to property rights shows that economic progress made by Singapore, New Zealand, and Australia is based on a solid foundation of one of the most effective property rights laws in the world. An analysis of the property rights system of England and Wales has also been made apart from a detailed analysis of Indian laws of property. This story is repeated throughout the world that the developed economies either have robust property rights laws or the fast-growing economies are trying to catch up on property law reforms to hasten their economic progress. Sir Robert Richard Torrens has the credit of coming up with a novel initiative some 170 years ago on property law reforms. The system is named after him as the Torrens system based on mirror, curtain, and guarantee principles. This initiative has since changed the worlds view of immovable property being a private affair of the owner with hardly any responsibility of the state other than the state being the custodian and guarantor of title to the private properties. This system has its positives and negatives but it is still regarded as one of the best possible systems for protection and enforcement of property rights. In Punjab, the deed registration system for immovable property transactions has been prevalent for more than a century. That too is not universally applied and many entities, including private societies and companies, are the custodians of property transactions. This has resulted in a lack of investment in general and especially in the development of private properties. Financial institutions are reluctant to provide credit to small farmers and for large holdings they hedge. Hence, credit on land security does not come cheap; rather it is costlier than other securities. There are huge conflicts over property disputes and these conflicts have overburdened the judiciary. These conflicts invariably turn violent and have resulted in the loss of many precious lives. Multiple factors in our legal system are responsible for defective titles and consequential conflicts. Universal registration of all property transactions by a sole state agency, the introduction of the Torrens system, the digitisation of entire land and strata properties in juxtaposition with cadastral maps, the rationalisation of taxation on property transactions, allowing online property transactions, capacity building of land administration ofï¬ cials in modern technologies, and reforms in laws relating to eminent domain and katchi abadis is a way forward for introducing an effective system of property rights in Punjab. This will require the repeal of some laws, substitution of few, amendment of others, and enactment of new laws. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:rrepot:2024:23 |
| By: | Colantone, Italo; Ottaviano, Gianmarco; Takeda, Kohei |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of globalization on intergenerational income mobility. Exploiting U.S. data, we find that stronger trade exposure at the commuting zone level lowers the intergenerational income mobility of residents. In particular, higher exposure to Chinese import competition lowers the income mobility of the cohort of U.S. workers born in 1980-1982. We present a general equilibrium theory in which path dependence in sector choice of individuals over generations and mobility frictions determine the dynamics of industrial compositions across locations in a country. The theory predicts that rising import competition reduces intergenerational income mobility, consistent with the empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, Political Economy |
| Date: | 2024–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:348542 |
| By: | Peter Psathas |
| Abstract: | Secured credit cards, whose limit is fully or partially collateralized by a bank deposit, serve as viable options for consumers seeking to build new credit or to repair a damaged credit history. Demonstrated repayment behavior over time can qualify secured cardholders for “graduation” to a standard unsecured credit card. This paper uses anonymized account-level data to examine how secured card borrowers perform after graduation by matching samples of graduates with similar groups of borrowers who open new unsecured cards without having graduated from a secured card program. Using a regression model, we compare the two groups’ credit usage and repayment behavior over time and assess the success of secured card graduates in establishing or rebuilding credit. Overall, we find that many secured card graduates succeed in demonstrating long-term responsible credit usage and are generally not riskier in their credit use than their comparison group. |
| Keywords: | credit cards; secured credit cards; account graduation |
| JEL: | D14 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpdp:99210 |
| By: | Daniel Hartley; Jonathan D. Rose; Becky Schneirov |
| Abstract: | We characterize the dynamics of neighborhood racial composition by using the k-medians machine learning technique to group neighborhoods into five different patterns according to the evolution of the Black population share of census tracts from 1950 through 1990. The procedure classifies tracts into groups that: always have a high Black population share, always have a low Black population share, have a steep increase in the Black population share from 1950-1960, or 1960-1970, and those that have a gradual increase in the Black population share from 1950-1990. We calculate the growth in median rents and home values in each to the five groups and find that those with steep increases in the Black population share show the smallest increases in home values and rent implying that Black households that bought homes in these neighborhoods in 1950 or 1960 were likely to have lost money or barely broken even by 1990. |
| Keywords: | blockbusting; neighborhood dynamics; Housing prices; cluster analysis; wealth-gap |
| JEL: | C38 N22 N92 G21 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:99309 |
| By: | Allayioti, Anastasia; Arioli, Rodolfo; Bates, Colm; Botelho, Vasco; Fagandini, Bruno; Fonseca, Luís; Healy, Peter; Meyler, Aidan; Minasian, Ryan; Zahrt, Octavia |
| Abstract: | This paper looks back on the 25-year history of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Since its launch in the first quarter of 1999, it has served as an important input for policymaking and analysis, especially over the past five years, where the euro area has, following a period of low inflation, navigated a global pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an unprecedented surge in inflation. The survey has evolved over time and provides not only a long time series of economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties. We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast – HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate – the track record of the ECB SPF in forecasting has been broadly comparable to that of the Eurosystem. In addition, its combination of quantitative point forecasts and probability distributions with qualitative explanations has provided useful input for macroeconomic analysis. Beyond analyses of the forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables, there are also two further sections that examine the technical assumptions (oil prices, policy rates, exchange rates and wages) underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are shown to account for the lion’s share of the variance in the inflation forecast errors, while uncertainty is shown to have increased considerably relative to that which prevailed during the early years of the SPF (1999-2008). Looking ahead, the SPF – with its long track record, its large and broad panel (spanning both financial and non-financial forecasters) and committed panellists – will undoubtedly continue to provide timely and useful insights for the ECB’s policymakers, macroeconomic experts, economic researchers and the wider public. JEL Classification: D84, E31, E37, E52, E66 |
| Keywords: | expectations, forecasts, inflation, SPF, survey |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024364 |
| By: | Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Dan Wang (Yale Law School) |
| Abstract: | Semiconductors have emerged as a headline in the resurgence of modern industrial policy. This paper explores the political economic history of the sector, the changing nature of the semiconductor supply chain, and the new sources of concern that have motivated the most recent turn to government intervention. It also explores details of that turn to industrial policy by the United States, China, Japan, Europe, South Korea, and Taiwan. Modern industrial policy for semiconductors has included not only subsidies for manufacturing, but also new import tariffs, export controls, foreign investment screening, and antitrust actions. |
| Keywords: | semiconductors, supply chains, industrial policy, tariffs, subsidies, export controls |
| JEL: | F13 L52 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp24-3 |
| By: | Jean-Sébastien Lenfant (PRISM, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to provide a historical account of the contributions to judgment and decision making by four cognitive psychologists at the turn of the 1970s: Sarah Lichtenstein, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. Beyond the usual focus on Kahneman and Tversky's heuristics and biases approach, we uphold that historians of behavioral economics would gain from a broader and more balanced view of the contributions of these four psychologists to the theory of decision making. Together with the heuristics and biases approach, experiments on preference reversal and choice intransitivities represent a multifaceted criticism of standard theories of choice and decision against which the genesis of behavioral economics could be evaluated. |
| Keywords: | Lichtenstein (Sarah), Slovic (Paul), Tversky (Amos), Kahneman (Daniel), heuristics and biases, preference reversal, intransitivity, preferences, behavioral economics, conjoint measurement, judgment, expected utility theory, mathematical psychology, cognitivism, experiments |
| JEL: | B21 B29 D91 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2024-31 |
| By: | Jean Lacroix; Pierre-Guillaume Méon; Kim Oosterlinck |
| Abstract: | The literature has pointed out the negative aspects of political dynasties. But can political dynasties help prevent autocratic reversals? We argue that political dynasties differ according to their ideological origin and that those whose founder was a defender of democratic ideals, for simplicity labeled pro-democratic dynasties, show stronger support for democracy. We analyze the vote by the French parliament on 10 July 1940 of an enabling act that granted full power to Marshall Philippe Pétain, thereby ending the Third French Republic and aligning France with Nazi Germany. Using data collected from the biographies of parliamentarians and information on their voting behavior, we find that members of a pro-democratic dynasty were 9.6 to 15.1 percentage points more likely to oppose the act than other parliamentarians. We report evidence that socialization inside and outside parliament shaped the vote of parliamentarians. |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/372587 |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Dieser Beitrag erläutert die Forschungsbeiträge, für die Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson und James A. Robinson im Jahr 2024 mit dem Nobel-Gedächtnispreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften ausgezeichnet wurden. Gewürdigt werden erstens ihre empirischen Untersuchungen zur Unterscheidung zwischen inklusiven und extraktiven Institutionen mitsamt ihren Auswirkungen auf den wirtschaftlichen Wohlstand sowie zweitens ihr theoretischer Interpretationsrahmen für die polit-ökonomische Logik institutionellen Wandels. |
| Abstract: | This article discusses the research contributions for which Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson were awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2024. This article honours, firstly, their empirical studies on the distinction between inclusive and extractive institutions and the according effects on economic prosperity, and secondly, their theoretical interpretative framework for the politico-economic logic of institutional change. |
| Keywords: | inklusive Institutionen, extraktive Institutionen, wirtschaftlicher Wohlstand, institutioneller Wandel, Persistenz, Demokratie, Rechtsstaat, Eigentumsrechte, inclusive institutions, extractive institutions, economic prosperity, institutional change, persistence, democracy, rule of law, property rights |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:307125 |
| By: | Alan Wm. Wolff (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | There has been a profound shift in American foreign economic policy. The United States has abandoned promotion of a rules-based open international trading system and no longer supports the World Trade Organization (WTO). The United States and its allies created the current world trading system as an essential part of the liberal world order, a series of rules-based international organizations and agreements to help rebuild the global economy and foster peaceful cooperation after World War II. Today, rising populism, heightened geopolitical tensions, and persistent inequality are threatening this order. Wolff emphasizes that the WTO is still relevant to the liberal international order, and it is in the core interest of the United States and other countries to continue to support that order. But he cautions that the WTO needs major reforms if it is to survive as an effective force governing world trade. WTO members must engage in serious negotiations to find acceptable solutions to shared problems. The resulting agreements can be political commitments or adoption of binding rules. Regressing to a lack of accountability for one's trade policy measures, however, would be unacceptably damaging. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb24-15 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich (University of Toronto and NBER); Stephen J. Redding (Princeton University, NBER and CEPR); Yanos Zylberberg (University of Bristol and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion that occurred in the second half of the 19th century. We use a newly-created dataset on population, employment by sector, property values, and poor law transfers for over 10, 000 parishes in England and Wales from 1801–1901. In response to this trade shock, we show that locations with high wheat suitability experience population decline, rural-urban migration, structural transformation away from agriculture, increases in welfare transfers, and declines in property values, relative to locations with low wheat suitability. We develop a quantitative spatial model to evaluate the income distributional consequences of this trade shock. Undertaking counterfactuals for the Grain Invasion, we show that geography is an important dimension along which these income distributional consequences occur. |
| Keywords: | United Kingdom; international trade, income distribution, geography |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F66 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:337 |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Dieser Beitrag rezensiert den außerordentlich lesenswerten Sammelband, den Richard Sturn unter dem Titel 'Joseph Schumpeter und der Staat" in der Nomos-Reihe 'Staatsverständnisse" herausgegeben hat. Zugleich wird herausgearbeitet, dass die Schumpeter Rezeption vor einer groflen Herausforderung steht. Die besteht darin, dass Schumpeter in seinen Texten - vor allem in seinem Buch 'Kapitalismus, Sozialismus und Demokratie" - umfänglichen Gebrauch von Ironie gemacht hat, so dass nicht alle seine Aussagen wortwörtlich zum Nennwert genommen werden dürfen. Somit besteht die Notwendigkeit, dass die mittlerweile immense Gebirgslandschaft der Primär- und Sekundärliteratur, die zu Schumpeter verfügbar ist, von Grund auf neu kartiert werden muss. |
| Abstract: | This article reviews the extremely readable anthology published by Richard Sturn under the title 'Joseph Schumpeter and the State" in the Nomos series 'Understanding the State". At the same time, it is worked out that the reception of Schumpeter faces a great challenge. This consists in the fact that Schumpeter made extensive use of irony in his texts - especially in his book 'Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy" - so that not all of his statements should be taken literally at face value. Thus, there is a need to re-map from scratch the by now immense landscape of primary and secondary literature on Schumpeter. |
| Keywords: | Steuerstaat, Kapitalismus, Sozialismus, Demokratie, Ironie, Tax State, Capitalism, Socialism, Democracy, Irony |
| JEL: | B24 B25 B31 B52 B53 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:307121 |
| By: | Weinig, Max; Fritsche, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the analysis of narratives in macroeconomic research. Our paper contributes to this research by proposing a way to identify and extract economic narratives from media reports. Therefore, this paper applies state-of-the-art bag-of-words text analysis methods to a large news corpus covering five years of news coverage in combination with results from a survey study on recent inflation narratives (Andre et al., 2023) in the US. This approach enables us to measure the prevalence and spread of inflation narratives over time and to examine the role of these narratives in aggregate macroeconomic expectations. Using Granger causality tests and local projections, we provide empirical evidence on the dynamics between inflation narratives and inflation expectations. Moreover, the paper highlights the vast heterogeneity across shortterm and mid-term inflation expectations as well as socioeconomic groups. |
| Keywords: | narratives, expectations, inflation, media, textual data, machine learning |
| JEL: | D84 E31 E32 E52 E71 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:uhhwps:307613 |
| By: | Sergio A. Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner |
| Abstract: | Evidence from a 160-year-long panel of U.S. banks suggests that the ultimate cause of bank failures and banking crises is almost always a deterioration of bank fundamentals that leads to insolvency. As described in our previous post, bank failures—including those that involve bank runs—are typically preceded by a slow deterioration of bank fundamentals and are hence remarkably predictable. In this final post of our three-part series, we relate the findings discussed previously to theories of bank failures, and we discuss the policy implications of our findings. |
| Keywords: | bank runs; financial crises; deposit insurance; bank failures |
| JEL: | G01 G2 |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:99176 |
| By: | Michaël Guillossou |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how climate change and adaptation through irrigation have affected corn yield growth within the US Corn Belt since the 1960s. We combine corn yield and irrigation data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service with ERA5-Land gridded temperature data. We adopt an augmented long-difference framework to i) assess the impact of extreme temperature trends from 1960 to 2023 on corn yield growth in Corn Belt counties since the 1960s and ii) estimate the potential of irrigation to mitigate this impact. Our findings reveal significant upward trends in extreme degree-days (EDD) above 29◦C across more than half of Corn Belt counties. We highlight that the varying magnitudes of these trends, alongside differential adoption rates of irrigation between counties, have played a crucial role in explaining the disparities in long-term corn yield trends within the region. Specifically, we show that irrigation offsets about 80% of the adverse impact of EDD on corn yields. Based on a counterfactual analysis, we find that current corn yields are about 6.5% lower, on average, than they would be in a non-climate change scenario. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Yields, Irrigation, Corn Belt |
| JEL: | Q15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-4 |
| By: | Camilo Garcia-Jimeno; Sahar Parsa |
| Abstract: | Through their writing, people often reflect their values. Since the 1970s, academic economists have gradually changed their third-person pronoun choices, from using the masculine form to incorporating feminine and plural forms. We document this transition empirically, and examine the role of social interactions among economists in driving the cultural change reflected in these choices. Our analysis relies on a model where writing style depends on the influence of academic peers, the implicit negotiation between co-authors, and individual authors’ preferences for expressing gender equality values in their writing. We directly measure peer influence relying on time-varying academic connections between economists, and propose a methodology that uses a homophily-based model of co-authoring decisions to isolate the effect of peer influence from unobserved personal preferences. The model allows us to decompose the observed changes in writing style over the last 50 years into generational shifts, the increasing prevalence of co-authorship in the profession, the increasing share of female economists, and peer influence. Generational changes and the growing share of women in the profession play a minor role. Early on, contrarian economists accelerated the pace of change in writing styles by moving away from their peers’ behavior. The large fraction of conformists and the overall homophily in co-authoring, in contrast, slowed the adoption of innovative writing styles by restricting economists’ exposure to peers with different gender-attitude signaling preferences. |
| Keywords: | Gender; Social norms; Social networks |
| JEL: | D71 D83 D85 J16 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:99311 |
| By: | Corneo, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | History shows militarily dominant states that pursue imperialism, relying on their might to extort resources from weaker states. Occasionally, the latter revolt and the dominant state suffers some casualties. This paper explores imperialism along steady-growth paths. If the dominant state maximizes domestic welfare, it should eventually abandon imperialism because its safety costs asymptotically overrun its material benefits. To shed light on diametrically opposed historical records, I propose a model of endogenous ideology and war bias in which the political elite cares about self-image. If that concern is strong enough, the political elite gradually identifies with its country's mission of hegemony and imperialism persists. It is first driven by material concerns and later by ideal ones. Despite its divergent preferences, the population of a dominant state generally has little interest to oppose imperialism. |
| Keywords: | imperialism, long-run growth, value of life, self-image |
| JEL: | H8 N4 O0 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:306844 |
| By: | Ingrid Gould Ellen; Daniel Hartley; Jeffrey Lin; Wei You |
| Abstract: | In response to private insurers’ postwar withdrawal from urban neighborhoods, roughly half of U.S. states developed programs in the late 1960s that offered residual property insurance to property owners denied in the private market. These plans, known as Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) plans after 1968, inadvertently encouraged moral hazard through underwriting restrictions, risk pooling, and generous payouts. We use a triple-difference design to estimate FAIR’s impact, comparing: (1) pre- and post-FAIR participation periods, (2) neighborhoods likely offered FAIR plans versus those not, and (3) similar contrasts in non-participating states. FAIR plans led to significant housing disinvestment and declines in central neighborhood population and income in the late 1960s and 1970s. |
| Keywords: | Moral hazard; Neighborhoods |
| JEL: | G52 N92 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:99322 |
| By: | Schilirò, Daniele |
| Abstract: | This contribution is, first and foremost, a reflection on the theme of political economy and the historical evolution of its ideas. It highlights some salient moments in the history of political economy and remembers the main protagonists who have contributed to the development of the discipline and its ideas. In analyzing the ideas of political economists, the themes examined include innovation, economic growth, and technological change. Finally, the essay discusses the European Monetary Union and the adoption of the single currency, the euro. It refers to the different crises this currency has experienced over the past twenty years and the various reforms implemented to ensure the survival of the European Monetary Union. |
| Keywords: | Political economy; innovation; growth; technological change; European Monetary Union; euro |
| JEL: | B0 E0 O10 O30 O40 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123132 |
| By: | Fatjon Kaja (Amsterdam Center for Law and Economics, Postbus 15679, 1001 ND Amsterdam, The Netherlands.) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the historical evolution of corporate purpose under the UK royal charters. Utilizing textual analysis, this study reveals that corporate charters were issued to fulfill a public-oriented purpose. The analysis shows that such conception of purpose was explicitly enforced. Employing the case study of the Massachusetts Bay Company, this article illustrates that charter revocations historically stemmed from corporate activities exceeding specified purposes. Contrary to prevalent contemporary discourse emphasizing corporate purpose as a broad goal, this study highlights the importance of law in ensuring a commitment to a limited, well-defined corporate purpose. |
| Keywords: | corporate purpose, UK royal charters, historical perspective, Massachusetts Bay Company, textual analysis |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afd:wpaper:2409 |
| By: | Knut Are Aastveit (Norges Bank); Jamie Cross (Melbourne Business School); Francesco Furlanetto (Norges Bank); Herman K van Dijk (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, Norges Bank) |
| Abstract: | The Fed's policy rule shifts during different phases of the business cycle, particularly in relation to monetary easing and tightening phases. This finding is established through a dynamic mixture model, which estimates regime-dependent Taylor-type rules using US quarterly data from 1960 to 2021. This approach supports partitioning the data into two regimes corresponding to business cycle phases, closely linked to monetary easing and tightening. The estimated policy rule coefficients differ in two key ways between the regimes: the degree of gradualism is significantly higher during normal times than during recessions, when rates are typically cut; and the output gap coefficient is higher in the recessionary regime than in the normal regime. Notably, the estimate of the inflation coefficient satisfies the Taylor principle in both regimes. These results are further strengthened when using real-time data. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Taylor rules, mixed distributions, regime-switching |
| Date: | 2024–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240074 |
| By: | Kris James Mitchener; Kirsten Wandschneider |
| Abstract: | The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, high-frequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country’s trade was reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F33 F42 N10 N70 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33313 |
| By: | Ganzer, Andreas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wolter, Stefanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The Establishment History Panel (BHP) is composed of cross sectional datasets since 1975 for West Germany and 1992 for East Germany. Every cross section contains all the establishments in Germany which are covered by the IAB Employment History (BeH) on June 30th. These are all establishments with at least one employee liable to social security on the reference date. Establishments with no employee liable to social security but with at least one marginal part-time employee are included since 1999. The cross sections can be combined to form a panel. This data report describes the Establishment-History-Panel (BHP) 1975–2023." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel ; Datenanonymisierung ; Datensatzbeschreibung ; Imputationsverfahren ; Stichprobe ; 10.5164/IAB.BHP7523.de.en.v1 ; 1975-2023 |
| Date: | 2024–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202409(de) |
| By: | Italo Colantone (Bocconi University, Baffi Research Centre, GREEN Research Centre, CESifo and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano (Bocconi University, Baffi Research Centre, CEP, CEPR and IGIER); Kohei Takeda (National University of Singapore and CEP) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of globalization on intergenerational income mobility. Exploiting U.S. data, we find that stronger trade exposure at the commuting zone level lowers the intergenerational income mobility of residents. In particular, higher exposure to Chinese import competition lowers the income mobility of the cohort of U.S. workers born in 1980-1982. We present a general equilibrium theory in which path dependence in sector choice of individuals over generations and mobility frictions determine the dynamics of industrial compositions across locations in a country. The theory predicts that rising import competition reduces intergenerational income mobility, consistent with the empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | Import competition, Distributional consequences, Intergenerational income mobility |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2024.29 |
| By: | Ganzer, Andreas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wolter, Stefanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The Establishment History Panel (BHP) is composed of cross sectional datasets since 1975 for West Germany and 1992 for East Germany. Every cross section contains all the establishments in Germany which are covered by the IAB Employment History (BeH) on June 30th. These are all establishments with at least one employee liable to social security on the reference date. Establishments with no employee liable to social security but with at least one marginal part-time employee are included since 1999. The cross sections can be combined to form a panel. This data report describes the Establishment-History-Panel (BHP) 1975–2023." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel ; Datenanonymisierung ; Datensatzbeschreibung ; Imputationsverfahren ; Stichprobe ; 10.5164/IAB.BHP7523.de.en.v1 ; 1975-2023 |
| Date: | 2024–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202409(en) |
| By: | Mathias Drehmann; Mikael Juselius; Sarah Quincy |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the debt service ratio (DSR) as a theoretically well-grounded indicator of systemic risk. The DSR has the desirable feature that it fluctuates around a stable level which makes its early warning signals easy to understand and communicate. In contrast, current early warning indicators (EWIs) based on credit-developments lack clear economic interpretations and require statistical detrending, which can reduce their accuracy and usefulness for macroprudential policymakers. The review of the literature shows that the DSR provides highly accurate early warning signals for crises and future economic slowdowns, outperforming traditional credit-based indicators. By extending the measurement of the DSR back to the 1920s – a novel contribution in this paper – we demonstrate its EWI effectiveness across different historical periods and show that the DSR acts as an upper limit on benign financial deepening. The paper also outlines questions for future research. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G01 N20 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33306 |