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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2023‒10‒02
twenty-six papers chosen by |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir; Konchakov, Roman; Didenko, Dmitry |
| Abstract: | The key question of the economic and social post-reform history of Russia (after the agrarian reform of 1861) is what exactly led to the revolutions of the early 20th century. Were these revolutions a natural result of the growth of social tensions due to the flawed “Prussian path” of the development of capitalism in agriculture (a combination of large landlords’ estates and small land ownership of the bulk of the peasants) or did Russian capitalism develop successfully on the whole, and the revolutions were by no means inevitable, but rather caused by random, transient factors (war, political mistakes of the authorities and the opposition, etc.) – brief overview of these discussions is in Nefedov and Ellman (2016). This paper aims to contribute to this discussion by analyzing the patterns and causes of social protest (peasants’ unrests, strikes at industrial enterprises, crimes against persons). We compute the index of inequality of land distribution for the Russian provinces, and find that the dynamics of social protest before the First Russian Revolution of 1905-07, from the 1890s to the early 1900s, occurred in provinces with the most uneven land distribution. These were mostly regions in the periphery of the empire (Lithuania, Poland, Belarus’, Ukraine, Novorossiya, Volga, Urals, Siberia, Far East, Caucuses, Central Asia) that were colonized in the 16th-19th centuries and did not have many serfs to begin with, and where the crown gave huge land areas to the nobility usually as a reward for service. We speculate that this could have constituted one of the unique features of Russian development – it was the only state that experienced such a rapid territorial expansion in the era of serfdom with the result of developing extremely high land distribution inequalities in the new provinces, higher than in other European countries at the same time. These unique inequalities in land distribution could help explain the greater revolutionary activity in Russia even though the income (not land) inequalities seem to have been lower than in other countries in the early 20th century and lower than in Russia today (Lindert, Nafziger, 2014). We also show that the increase in domestic violence was positively affected by illiteracy and alcohol consumption, whereas for social unrest alcohol consumption did not matter (insignificant) and literacy had either significant positive impact (increase in strikes) or was insignificant (increase in peasants’ unrest). Success rate of strikes, though, was linked positively with education (literacy rate and the average number of years of schooling) in 1895-99, but in 1900-04 the relationship was negative. In the late 19th century strikes were successful mostly in educated regions, whereas in 1900-04 less educated regions became successful in their strikes’ activity as well. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, land distribution, Russian revolutions, human capital |
| JEL: | D63 D74 I24 N13 N53 O15 O5 O52 Q15 |
| Date: | 2023–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118464&r=his |
| By: | Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Eric Strobl (Department of Economics, University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | We explore the role that large fires played in the early developed of the fire insurance industry of pre-WWII Japan. To this end we construct a prefecture level data set spanning thirty years. Our econometric results show that large fires led to an increase in new policies and policy renewals, a result that is in line with historical narratives that insurance companies used these events to advertise their business. We also show that this subsequent surge in renewals and new policy holders led to more fraudulent behaviour by increasing the number of small fires due to arson, whereas there was no effect on unintentionally set small fires. While we are unable to identify whether this was due to adverse selection of new policy holders or moral hazard behaviour of existing ones, anecdotal evidence that is more likely to have been the latter. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2023cf1220&r=his |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Pierre Siklos |
| Abstract: | In this paper we revisit the Canadian experience with floating exchange rates since 1950. Canada was a pioneer in successfully adopting a floating exchange rate during the Bretton Woods pegged exchange rate regime. Since then, most advanced countries have followed the Canadian example. A key finding of our paper based on historical narrative and econometric analysis is that economic performance under floating depended on its monetary policy performance as Milton Friedman originally argued in his seminal 1953 article. Canadian monetary policy achieved low and stable inflation once it adopted inflation targeting as a nominal anchor. Also, as Friedman argued, Canada’s floating exchange rate provided it with a modicum of insulation from external shocks, especially commodity price shocks that influenced both the level and volatility of the real exchange rate over the past three decades. The Canadian experience with floating (along with that of other small open economies such as Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) and inflation targeting became a model for the conduct of monetary policy in emerging countries. |
| JEL: | E32 E52 F31 F32 N1 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31654&r=his |
| By: | Kleinheisterkamp, Jan |
| Abstract: | This Article traces the concept of transnational public policy as developed in the context of international arbitration at the intersection between legal theory and practice. The emergence of such a transnational public policy, it is claimed, would enable arbitrators to safeguard and ultimately to define the public interests that need to be protected in a globalized economy, irrespective of national laws. A historical contextualization of efforts to empower merchants and their practices in Germany and the United States in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries highlights their reliance on the mythical lex mercatoria that shaped English commercial law. Further contextualization is offered by the postwar invocation of “general principles of law recognized by civilized nations, ” to keep at bay the application of supposedly less civilized, parochial legal orders, and by the consequent emergence of the “new” lex mercatoria as conceptualized especially in France. These developments paved the way, on the theory side, for later conceptualizations of self-constitutionalizing law beyond the state, especially by Gunther Teubner, and, on the practice side, for the notion of transnational public policy developed by arbitrators, especially by Emmanuel Gaillard, culminating in jurisprudential claims of an autonomous arbitral legal order with a regulatory dimension. In all these constructions, the recourse to comparative law has been a crucial element. Against this rough intellectual history, the Article offers a critique of today’s construction of transnational public policy by probing into its constitutional dimension and the respective roles of private and public interests. This allows, in particular, to draw on parallels to historic U.S. constitutional debates on the allocation of regulatory powers in federalism. |
| Keywords: | OUP deal |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2023–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109865&r=his |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) was established by France to counteract the dominance of Anglophone countries in West Africa, particularly Nigeria and Ghana, over Francophone West Africa. Francophonie in French West Africa is mainly driven by a power elite, the 'Pré Quarré' in both France and Africa. The notorious Françafrique network determined the fate of the region for decades. This provoked a growing anti-French sentiment, which focused on three points. First, development policy; second, the currency; and third, the military. France was the only western country to maintain a significant military presence in the Sahel. While the number of French troops has fallen drastically from 30, 000 in the early 1960s to around 6, 100 today, political and military interventionism has not abated. But, after so many years of failed military efforts against terrorism in the region, citizens became increasingly suspicious of France's motives for being there. However, a clear distinction must be made between anti-French sentiment and anti-French military presence. Many believe that any presence of foreign troops in the Sahel makes the situation worse by attracting rather than repelling extremists. Yet, this view obscures two important realities. First, the development of a broader authoritarian movement, driven in part by Russia, that challenges democracy and its proponents. The local population makes France the scapegoat for the worsening of their situation on the ground. Its political leaders are capitalizing on hostility to the colonial legacy, including the CFA franc and military cooperation. This is fertile ground for insurgent military officials, who have no legal legitimacy but a thirst for authenticity. The slogan 'France, get out' has become a new means of legitimizing political and military power in French-speaking Africa. However, for some autocrats it is also used as a welcome distraction from acknowledging their own responsibility for the predicament. Africans are becoming increasingly aware that France is staying in Africa for its own interests. But anti-French is not necessarily pro-coup. The axis of young, fiery military leaders, seeking legitimacy from their terrorized compatriots, exploited all sorts of populist sentiments, from Africanism to the quest for economic independence. They accused Paris of supporting the terrorists who are targeting the local population so that France can continue siphoning off their resources and thereby sinking the country into increasing poverty. It would be a mistake to think that making it clear to Africans that they are being manipulated by the Russians would end the whole thing. Nevertheless, the African heavyweights of UEMOA, Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, as well as the other member states, will keep the Union together out of self-interest, albeit on fairer terms. African public opinion is-understandably extremely sensitive to being treated as an equal. They don't want to be lectured to or made fun of. |
| Keywords: | Françafrique; WAEMU; UEMOA; ECOWAS; Anti-French sentiment; Africanisms; coup d'état; governance; sustainable development; post-colonialism; informal sector; CFA franc; ODA; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa; Mali; Burkina Faso; Niger; Guinea; Nigeria; African Studies; |
| JEL: | F15 F35 F51 F52 F54 H12 H56 K42 L13 L72 N17 N47 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118357&r=his |
| By: | Ambrosino, Angela; Cedrini, Mario; Davis, John B. (Department of Economics Marquette University; Department of Economics Marquette University) |
| Abstract: | We argue that in a core-periphery economic world economics imperialism as advanced by the postwar Chicago School and economic imperialism led by the economies of the north are two sides of the same coin. We first review the parallelism between postwar capitalism’s core-periphery expansion of the north into the south and the Chicago’s theory of economics imperialism. We then distinguish four forms of relationships between different disciplines, and using Rodrik’s augmented global capitalism trilemma argue Chicago adopts his Golden Straitjacket pathway, both for north-south capitalist expansion and core mainstream economics’ orientation toward other social science disciplines. The paper then uses Ricardo’s classic theory of rising rents to argue the Golden Straitjacket pathway is self-undermining for both, because it produces costly rising inframarginal rents in the north economies associated with financialization and in Chicago economics associated with its defense against other disciplines’ reverse imperialisms. We conclude that long-term forces operating on global economic development and the evolution of the social sciences suggest an alternative pathway for both that would produce a more pluralistic world economy and a more pluralistic economics. |
| Keywords: | economic imperialism, economics imperialism, Rodrik, Golden Straitjacket, Ricardo, financialization, reverse imperialism, pluralism |
| JEL: | A12 B41 F02 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrq:wpaper:2023-03&r=his |
| By: | Valentin Lang; Stephan A. Schneider |
| Abstract: | During recent waves of immigration, support for nationalist parties has increased in many countries, but the political backlash against immigration differs strongly across regions. We identify an underlying cause for these differences by studying how local experience with immigration shapes nationalist sentiment and electoral reactions to current immigration in the long run. Our analysis draws on a natural experiment in post-war Germany, where a short-term demarcation of occupation zones led to a discontinuous and quasi-exogenous distribution of forced migrants. Across this border, the population share of migrants differed by 12 percentage points. Applying a spatial regression discontinuity design, we combine historical migration records with panel data at the municipality level for the 1925-2021 period. The results reveal a substantially weaker backlash against contemporary immigration in regions where more migrants settled in the late 1940s. This historical experience reduces the nationalist backlash by about 20 percent. High levels of immigration activate this effect over a period of at least 70 years. To study the mechanisms, we conduct a geocoded survey with a randomized experiment and open-ended questions in the study region. We find that both family history and local collective memory of successful immigrant integration contribute to these effects. The results of the randomized experiment are consistent with the natural experiment, revealing how experience with immigration can curb nationalism. |
| Keywords: | migration, nationalism, persistence, voting behavior |
| JEL: | D72 O15 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10621&r=his |
| By: | Kasey Buckles; Adrian Haws; Joseph Price; Haley E.B. Wilbert |
| Abstract: | The Census Tree is the largest-ever database of record links among the historical U.S. censuses, with over 700 million links for people living in the United States between 1850 and 1940. These high-quality links allow researchers in the social sciences and other disciplines to construct a longitudinal dataset that is highly representative of the population. In this paper, we describe our process for creating the Census Tree, beginning with a collection of over 317 million links contributed by the users of a free online genealogy platform. We then use these links as training data for a machine learning algorithm to make new matches, and incorporate other recent efforts to link the historical U.S. censuses. Finally, we introduce a procedure for filtering the links and adjudicating disagreements. Our complete Census Tree achieves match rates between adjacent censuses that are between 69 and 86% for men, and between 58 and 79% for women. The Census Tree includes women and Black Americans at unprecedented rates, containing 314 million links for the former and more than 41 million for the latter. |
| JEL: | C81 J10 N01 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31671&r=his |
| By: | Rahmat Ullah; Rashid Aftab; Saeed Siyal; Kashif Zaheer |
| Abstract: | This book presents detailed discussion on the role of higher education in terms of serving basic knowledge creation, teaching, and doing applied research for commercialization. The book presents an historical account on how this challenge was addressed earlier in education history, the cases of successful academic commercialization, the marriage between basic and applied science and how universities develop economies of the regions and countries. This book also discusses cultural and social challenges in research commercialization and pathways to break the status quo. |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2308.08808&r=his |
| By: | Lee E. Ohanian; Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria; Diana Van Patten; Mark L.J. Wright |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the positive and normative impact of Bretton Woods capital controls on global and regional economic activity. A three-region DSGE capital flows accounting framework consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) is developed to quantify capital controls and evaluate their impact on the world economy. We find these controls had large effects. Counterfactual analysis show world output would have been 0:5 percent higher had there been perfect capital mobility, with substantial capital flowing from the ROW to the U.S. Bretton Woods capital controls raised welfare substantially in the ROW, but at the expense of much lower U.S. welfare. Given the U.S.’s goal of keeping capital within these countries to preserve their stability during this period, we interpret lower U.S. welfare due to Bretton Woods as the implicit value the U.S. placed on preserving geopolitical stability in ally countries during the Cold War. |
| JEL: | E0 F30 P0 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31595&r=his |
| By: | Petralia, Sergio; Kemeny, Thomas; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | Tacit knowledge – ideas that cannot readily be meaningfully and completely communicated – has long been considered a precursor to scientific and technological advances. Using words and phrases found in the universe of USPTO patents 1940-2020, we propose a new method of measuring tacit knowledge and its progressive codification. We uncover a discontinuity in the production of highly tacit technologies. Before 1980, highly- and less-tacit inventions are evenly distributed among inventors, organizations, scientific domains and subnational regions. After 1980, inventors of highly tacit patents become relatively rare, and increasingly concentrated in domains and locations. The economic payoffs to tacit knowledge also change, as it starts unequally rewarding high-income workers. This suggests a role for tacit knowledge in contributing to the rise in income inequality since 1980. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120154&r=his |
| By: | Gutiérrez, José Manuel |
| Abstract: | The Kulturkampf set off by article 26 of the Constitution of the Second Spanish Republic is used to construct a proxy variable for the intensity of confessional allegiance in Spain. The correlation between literacy and confessional intensity is then considered in two points in time during the Spanish literacy process. |
| Keywords: | confessional allegiance, intensity, literacy, Spain |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2023–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118539&r=his |
| By: | Heo, Kun; Zerbini, Antoine |
| Abstract: | The internet provides citizens with a large range of foreign outlets to choose from. To discourage access to foreign outlets, authoritarian regimes appear to rely primarily on the firewall, which millions bypass everyday. Crucially, in equilibrium, the regime ensures that only a specific segment of the population self-selects into bypassing the firewall: regime opponents. In turn, opponents are occasionally swayed to comply by positive reporting about the regime of banned foreign outlets. Supporters exclusively consume content from domestic outlets; their compliance is secured via the regime propaganda. We label such a strategy one of segment-and-rule and show how it maximizes compliance. We also explain how authoritarian regimes can engineer segment-and-rule by making local outlets parrot the party line, investing in domestic entertainment or strategically banning foreign entertainment. |
| Date: | 2023–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:np2j8&r=his |
| By: | Richard Ostrander |
| Abstract: | Paper prepared for Panel Discussion on Central Bank Immunities and International Sanctions, ECB Legal Conference 2023, Frankfurt am Main, Germany. |
| Keywords: | economic sanctions; central bank |
| Date: | 2023–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:96720&r=his |
| By: | Alexander Yarkin |
| Abstract: | How do political preferences and voting behaviors respond to information coming from abroad? Focusing on the international migration network, I document that opinion changes at the origins spill over to 1st- and 2nd-generation immigrants abroad. Local diasporas, social media, and family ties to the origins facilitate the transmission, while social integration at destination weakens it. Using the variation in the magnitude, timing, and type of origin-country exposure to the European Refugee Crisis of 2015, I show that salient events trigger learning from the origins. Welcoming asylum policies at the origins decrease opposition to non-Europeans and far-right voting abroad. Transitory refugee flows through the origins send abroad the backlash. Data from Google Trends and Facebook suggests elevated attention to events at the origins and communication with like-minded groups as mechanisms. Similar spillovers following the passage of same-sex marriage laws show the phenomenon generalizes beyond refugee attitudes. |
| Keywords: | immigration, social networks, spillovers, political attitudes, integration |
| JEL: | O15 Z13 D72 D83 P00 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10626&r=his |
| By: | Mario Seffino (CEA/UNCPBA); German Gonzalez (IIESS/UNS-CONICET) |
| Abstract: | This article compares the behavior of total factor productivity between 16 Latin American countries and the United States and Canada for the period 1980-2019 using an order-m nonparametric estimator together with the Malmqüist index. The results showed a setback in terms of productivity in Latin America when comparing a period of 40 years from end to end. Consequently, the gap between the Latin American economies and the benchmark has widened. However, a good performance in terms of technical change can be observed between 2010 and 2019 in Latin American countries. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:270&r=his |
| By: | Olivier Deschenes; Christopher Malloy; Gavin G. MacDonald |
| Abstract: | Despite a 30-year long history, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) remain controversial and debates continue to surround their efficacy in leading the low-carbon transition in the electricity sector. Contributing to the ongoing debates is the lack of definitive causal evidence on their impact on investments in renewable capacity and generation. This paper provides the most detailed analysis to date of the impact of RPSs on renewable electricity capacity investments and on generation. We use state-level data from 1990-2019 and recent econometric methods designed to address dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects in a staggered adoption panel data design. We find that, on average, RPS policies increase wind generation capacity by 600-1200 MW, a 44% increase, but have no significant effect on investments in solar capacity. Additionally, we demonstrate that RPSs have slow dynamic effects: most of the capacity additions occur 5 years after RPS implementation. Estimates for wind and solar electricity generation mimic those for capacity investments. We also find similar results using an alternate treatment definition that allows states to meet their RPS requirements with pre-existing renewable generation and renewable generation from nearby states. |
| JEL: | Q20 Q42 Q50 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31568&r=his |
| By: | Alma Cohen |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to contribute to the long-standing debate on the extent to which the ideology of federal circuit court judges, as proxied by the party of the president nominating them, can help to predict case outcomes. To this end, I combine and analyze a novel dataset containing about 670, 000 circuit court cases from 1985 to 2020. I show that the political affiliation of judges is associated with outcomes, and thus can help to predict them, throughout the vast universe of circuit court cases – and not only in the ideologically contested cases on which prior empirical research has focused. In particular, I find an association between political affiliation and outcomes in each of six categories of cases in which the two litigating parties could be perceived by judges to have unequal power. In each of these six case categories, which together add up to more than 550, 000 cases, the more Democratic judges a panel has, the higher the odds of the panel siding with the seemingly weaker party. Furthermore, I identify evidence of polarization over time in circuit court decisions. Consistent with such growing polarization, in the important subset of published cases, the identified patterns are more pronounced in the last two decades of the examined period than earlier. Going beyond the very large sample of cases with parties of seemingly of unequal power, I identify how political affiliation can help to predict outcomes in most of the cases outside this sample. In particular, I show that panels with more Democratic judges are less likely than panels with less Democratic judges to defer to the lower-court decision in civil cases between private parties that seem to be of equal power. Altogether, my analysis shows that political affiliation can help to predict outcomes in over 90% of circuit court cases. Overall, my results highlight the pervasiveness with which – and the array of ways through which – the political affiliation of judges can help to predict the outcome of circuit court cases. |
| JEL: | D72 J15 J16 K0 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31509&r=his |
| By: | Bill Martin |
| Abstract: | Using the most rudimentary models, this note explains how the pursuit by workers and firms of collectively unobtainable goals for real wages and real profits can lead not simply to a higher rate of inflation but to an explosive inflation. The rudimentary nature of the models allows a clear link to be forged between these conflicting aspirations and the distribution of national income. The models exclude any notion that workers or firms form, or act upon, expectations about future inflation but can generate the equivalent of a non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, a concept absent from many complex conflict models. Out of academic fashion since the ‘defeat of inflation’, conflict models may now enjoy a revival of interest from policy makers should the British economy suffer a period of ‘stagflation’. If so, solutions proposed by British academics who developed the inflation conflict approach in the 1970s and 1980s would warrant their own revival. |
| Keywords: | inflation, conflict, stock-flow consistency, British economy |
| JEL: | E25 E31 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp535&r=his |
| By: | Michele Campolieti; Arturo Ramos |
| Abstract: | We study the distribution of strike size, which we measure as lost person days, for a long period in several countries of Europe and America. When we consider the full samples, the mixtures of two or three lognormals arise as very convenient models. When restricting to the upper tails, the Pareto power law becomes almost indistinguishable of the truncated lognormal. |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2308.10030&r=his |
| By: | Zdravka Todorova |
| Abstract: | Conceptions of social stratification and oppression should be central to Post Keynesian inquiry. The article takes a Veblenian feminist view to discuss aspects of oppression in economies of stratification, and outlines connections to areas of Post Keynesian economics. The article is structured around “five faces of oppression” delineated by political theorist Iris Young: exploitation, violence, powerlessness, cultural imperialism, and marginalization. The paper reframes those based on a conception of evolving social processes and diverse economic relations, and employs Veblen’s theory of surplus and stratification, which has a broad understanding of domination that goes beyond capital accumulation. The article provides illustrations of these interconnected aspects of oppression, and discusses how each is co-opted today. The article presents specific connections to Post Keynesian economic analysis and concludes by highlighting the potential of Post Keynesian economics for social justice. |
| Keywords: | Stratification; Oppression; Thorstein Veblen; Feminist Post Keynesian Economics; Social Processes |
| JEL: | B52 B54 E12 Z13 Z18 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2311&r=his |
| By: | Adrian Haws; David R. Just; Joseph Price |
| Abstract: | We link census records for millions of farm children to identify owner-operators of the family farm in adulthood, providing the first population-level evidence on intergenerational farm transfers. Using our panel of U.S. census data from 1900 to 1940, our analysis supports the primogeniture hypothesis that oldest sons are more likely to inherit the family farm. Daughters are rarely observed as successors. We find that the birth order relationship among sons is relatively small and is only present for the subset of families with parents who are working age when they first have a successor, indicating that they had a succession plan. In families without an early successor, adult children who are tenant farmers or are not in an urban area are more likely to later inherit their family’s farm. Tenancy and rural residence are much more predictive of succession than is birth order. Thus, unplanned succession may primarily benefit underresourced farmers. With fewer than one-fifth of farm families having a child successor, the slow growth in succession as parents reach retirement age and life expectancy suggests the importance of identifying a successor early. |
| JEL: | D64 J24 N32 N52 Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31604&r=his |
| By: | Carlos Madeira |
| Abstract: | Using micro survey data, I show that income and consumption inequality fell substantially in Chile since 1987. Consumption inequality between and withingroups fell substantially over the last 35 years, especially for within groups. During this period, households use of financial services increased substantially.Estimating a standardconsumption model, the results reject both the autarky and the full risk sharing frameworks. It is found that for services and non-durable goods, consumption is almost half-way between autarky and full risk-sharing. However, purchases of Semi-Durables, Durables, Medical, Insurance, and other financial products are strongly affected by income fluctuations. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:973&r=his |
| By: | José Manuel Rodríguez Torrez |
| Abstract: | Las transiciones a la democracia generalmente constituyen procesos de alta complejidad en materia de ingeniería política orientada a la gobernabilidad. España en 1976, Argentina en 1983 y Chile en 1988 emprendieron dicho proceso con diferentes puntos de partida. Sin embargo, determinados fenómenos políticos son comparables si se establecen las condiciones equiparables (Sartori, 1994), y a pesar de tener distintos orígenes, cada una de estas transiciones enfrentó desafíos comunes. En este sentido, se procede a explorar, mediante las premisas de la política comparada, las decisiones tomadas en los procesos mencionados y conocer el porqué de los diferentes cursos de acción. Para ello, se hace foco en la reforma al orden constitucional, la regeneración de la vida partidaria, la gestión de una justicia transicional, y la convivencia entre actores autoritarios salientes y agentes democráticos entrantes. De este modo, se busca generar un aporte al debate generado sobre los procesos de transición democrática. / Transitions to democracy are generally highly complex processes in terms of political engineering aimed at governance. Spain in 1976, Argentina in 1983 and Chile in 1988 undertook this process with different starting points. However, certain political phenomena are comparable if comparable conditions are established (Sartori, 1994), and despite having different origins, each of these transitions faced common challenges. In this sense, we proceed to explore, through the premises of comparative politics, the decisions taken in the processes and to understand the reasons for the different courses of action. To this end, the focus is on the reform of the constitutional order, the regeneration of party life, the management of transitional justice, and the coexistence between outgoing authoritarian actors and incoming democratic agents. In this way, it seeks to generate a contribution to the debate generated on the processes of democratic transition. |
| Keywords: | Transición, Liderazgo, Política Comparada, Gobernabilidad, Democracia. / Transition, Leadership, Comparative Politics, Governance, Democracy. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:857&r=his |
| By: | Luciano Campos (CONICET/IIEP) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the natural rate of interest for the six biggest Latin American economies. Considering the fact that money velocity is the permanent component of the nominal interest rate, both the nominal and real natural rates are estimated simply by running an OLS regression. It is evidenced a downward trend in the real natural rate since the 2010s, comparable with the decline displayed by potential output once the favorable conditions of the 2000s commodity boom were over. This result has direct implications for the monetary stance evaluation in the region, which is analyzed as well in this work. |
| Keywords: | Natural rate of interest; money velocity; Latin America |
| JEL: | E58 N16 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:271&r=his |
| By: | Jean-Paul Carvalho; Augustin Bergeron; Joseph Henrich; Nathan Nunn; Jonathan L. Weigel |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of belief systems that suppress productive effort. These include concerns about the envy of others, beliefs in the importance of luck for success, disdain for competitive effort, and traditional beliefs in witchcraft. We show that such demotivating beliefs can evolve when interactions are zero-sum in nature, i.e., gains for one individual tend to come at the expense of others. Within a population, our model predicts a divergence between material and subjective payoffs, with material welfare being hump-shaped and subjective well-being being decreasing in demotivating beliefs. Across societies, our model predicts a positive relationship between zero-sum thinking and demotivating beliefs and a negative relationship between zero-sum thinking (or demotivating beliefs) and both material welfare and subjective well-being. We test the model's predictions using data from two samples in the Democratic Republic of Congo and from the World Values Survey. In the DRC, we find a positive relationship between zero-sum thinking and the presence of demotivating beliefs, such as concerns about envy and beliefs in witchcraft. Globally, zero-sum thinking is associated with skepticism about the importance of hard work for success, lower income, less educational attainment, less financial security, and lower life satisfaction. Comparing individuals in the same zero-sum environment, we observe the divergence between material outcomes and subjective well-being predicted by our model. |
| JEL: | N10 O10 Q55 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31663&r=his |