|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2023‒09‒04
nineteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Richard N. Langlois (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | Much has been written, especially in economics and management, about Frank Knight’s account of uncertainty and entrepreneurship. This paper attempts to put that theory in the larger context of the intellectual currents, and to a significant extent the economic history, in which Knight found himself. In response to rapid economic growth and the emergence of the large industrial enterprise in the U. S. in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, many came to believe that the classical liberalism of the nineteenth century would need to be amended – if not jettisoned entirely. Frank Knight was among these. He was, along some dimensions, a Progressive and an Institutionalist. What set him apart from Progressives like John Dewey, however, was his theory of economic knowledge. Whereas Dewey and others insisted on the panacea of science as the solution to the “social question, ” Knight understood that in a world of uncertainty, the cognitive faculty of judgment was essential and unavoidable, thus providing a new intellectual underpinning for many of the institutions of nineteenth-century liberalism. Yet Knight did not follow the implications of his theory of knowledge all the way to their conclusions. This is because – perhaps among other reasons – he began with a well-developed model of perfect competition, which, unlike such contemporaries as Joseph Schumpeter and F. A. Hayek, he was never willing to relinquish as a normative ideal. Perhaps surprisingly, Frank Knight was a Progressive and an Institutionalist because he believed in the neoclassical model of the economy. |
| Keywords: | Frank Knight, uncertainty, entrepreneurship, liberalism, democracy, central planning |
| JEL: | B25 B3 B52 L2 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2023-06&r=his |
| By: | Murau, Steffen |
| Abstract: | This paper traces the transformation of the monetary architecture and concomitant sovereign debt issuance practices in Prussia and the German Empire from 1740 to 1914 in order to reflect on contemporary ideas regarding the appropriate relation between states' treasuries, central banks, and the private banking system in matters of sovereign debt issuance. It discusses three institutions as "protagonists" - the Königlich Preußische Bank, the Seehandlung, and the Disconto-Gesellschaft - and follows them through four phases of Prussian and German history: feudal Prussia from Friedrich II to the defeat against Napoleon (1740-1806); from the Stein-Hardenberg reforms to the March Revolution (1807-1848); post-revolutionary Prussia, including the rise of Bismarck, his three wars, and the foundation of the German Empire (1849-1871); and Prussia in the German Empire during the first era of globalization (1871-1914). Adopting the Monetary Architecture framework as a conceptual lens, the analysis yields three main findings. First, off-balance-sheet fiscal agencies (OBFAs) have played a key role in the issuance and management of sovereign debt, even before central banks and treasuries in the modern sense had formed. This is highlighted in the institutional role of the Seehandlung, which kick-started Prussian sovereign debt issuance during the Napoleonic Wars. Second, central banking institutions have historically shifted within the public-private spectrum. The state-owned Königlich Preußische Bank became more functional and accountable after it was converted into the hybrid Preußische Bank. When it was transformed into the Reichsbank in 1875, a fully private ownership structure was chosen. Third, the economic liberalization after 1848 and the increased need to harness private funding for war finance led to the emergence of syndicated sovereign bond issuance. The Disconto-Gesellschaft, which played a leading role in the Prussia Consortium and the Imperial Bond Consortium, was at the forefront of establishing a new relationship between private finance and the state. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Debt, Institutions, History |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:274043&r=his |
| By: | Francisco J. Beltran Tapia (NTNU); Alfonso Diez Minguela (Universitat de Valencia); Julio Martinez Galarraga (Universitat de Barcelona); Daniel A. Tirado Fabregat (Universitat de Valencia) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we introduce ESPOP, a spatial data infrastructure with municipal-level information for Spain from 1860 to 1930. ESPOP offers de facto population for the universe of municipalities (over 9, 000) as reported in 7 censuses (1860, 1877, 1887, 1900, 1910, 1920 and 1930). Given their changing nature, a relevant contribution is that it also provides local de facto population for 9, 130 homogeneous municipalities thereby allowing for consistent intertemporal comparisons. Additionally, municipalities are georeferenced which in turn facilitates the integration of other spatial data infrastructures. ESPOP thus culminates a long process that has benefitted from the work of the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) and a good number of researchers. |
| Keywords: | Spain, population, history |
| JEL: | J11 R11 R23 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bci:wpaper:2301&r=his |
| By: | Hatton, Timothy J. (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | From 1860 to 1913 the six colonies that became states of Australia strove to attract migrants from the UK with a variety of assisted passages. The colonies/states shared a common culture and sought migrants from a common source, the UK, but set policy independently of each other. This experience provides a unique opportunity to examine the formation of assisted immigration policies. Using a panel of colonies/states over the years 1862 to 1913 I investigate the association between measures of policy activism and a range of economic and political variables. Assisted migration policies were positively linked with government budget surpluses and local economic prosperity. They were also associated with political participation including the widening of the franchise and remuneration of members of parliament. While the reduction in travel time to Australia reduced the need for assisted migration, slumps in the UK increased the take-up of assisted passages. |
| Keywords: | colonial Australia, assisted passages, international migration |
| JEL: | F22 N37 N47 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16298&r=his |
| By: | Harka, Elona; Nunziata, Luca; Rocco, Lorenzo |
| Abstract: | We examine the gender legacy of past institutions by comparing Italian municipalities located in a narrow band across the borders between the former Papal States on the one hand, and the former Grand Duchy of Tuscany and the Duchy of Modena on the other. Our results show that a century after the dissolution of these pre-unification states, the municipalities once governed by the Papacy have lower female labor market participation and employment than their counterparts in Tuscany and Modena, while we find no discontinuity for males. We interpret these findings as the lingering effects of a deep-rooted conservatism that characterized the Papal States relative to the other preunification states, as confirmed by the analysis of the incidence of religious marriages, and voting patterns for a confessional political party and in two referenda on divorce and abortion rights. Our results also suggest that such a legacy is not permanent, although it takes centuries to dissipate. |
| Keywords: | Papal States, Gender Equality, Female Condition, Women Rights, Religion, Labour Market, Spatial Regression Discontinuity |
| JEL: | J16 J12 N9 P48 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1315&r=his |
| By: | Wang, Tianyi (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | Using newly digitized data on the growth of the telegraph network in America during 1840-1852, the paper studies the impacts of the electric telegraph on national elections. I use proximity to daily newspapers with telegraphic connections to Washington to generate plausibly exogenous variation in access to telegraphed news from Washington. I find that access to Washington news with less delay significantly increased voter turnout in national elections. For mechanisms, I provide evidence that newspapers facilitated the dissemination of national news to local areas. In addition, text analysis on more than a hundred small-town weekly newspapers from the 1840s shows that the improved access to news from Washington led newspapers to cover more national political news, including coverage of Congress, the presidency, and sectional divisions involving slavery. The results suggest that the telegraph made newspapers less parochial, facilitated a national conversation and increased political participation. I find little evidence that access to telegraphed news from Washington affected party vote shares or Congressmen's roll call votes. |
| Keywords: | information technology, newspaper, election, economic history |
| JEL: | O3 L96 L82 D72 N71 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16317&r=his |
| By: | van den Berg, G.J.;; von Hinke, S.;; Wang, R.A.H.; |
| Abstract: | Maternal sugar consumption in utero may have a variety of effects on offspring. We exploit the abolishment of the rationing of sweet confectionery in the UK on April 24, 1949, and its subsequent reintroduction some months later, in an era of otherwise uninterrupted rationing of confectionery (1942-1953), sugar (1940-1953) and many other foods, and we consider effects on late-life cardiovascular disease, BMI, height, type-2 diabetes and the intake of sugar, fat and carbohydrates, as well as cognitive outcomes and birth weight. We use individual-level data from the UK Biobank for cohorts born between April 1947–May 1952. We also explore whether one’s genetic “predisposition†to the outcome can moderate the effects of prenatal sugar exposure. We find that prenatal exposure to derationing increases education and reduces BMI and sugar consumption at higher ages, in line with the “developmental origins†explanatory framework, and that the sugar effects are stronger for those who are genetically “predisposed†to sugar consumption. |
| Keywords: | nutrition; food consumption; gene-environment interplay; education; developmental origins; |
| JEL: | I12 I18 I15 D45 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:23/11&r=his |
| By: | Kris J. Mitchener; Angela Vossmeyer; Kris James Mitchener |
| Abstract: | We examine how financial crises redistribute risk, employing novel empirical methods and micro data from the largest financial crisis of the 20th century – the Great Depression. Using balance-sheet and systemic risk measures at the bank level, we build an econometric model with incidental truncation that jointly considers bank survival, the type of bank closure (consolidations, absorption, and failures), and changes to bank risk. Despite roughly 9, 000 bank closures, risk did not leave the financial system; instead, it increased. We show that risk was redistributed to banks that were healthier prior to the financial crisis. A key mechanism driving the redistribution of risk was bank acquisition. Each acquisition increases the balance-sheet and systemic risk of the acquiring bank by 25%. Our findings suggest that financial crises do not quickly purge risk from the system, and that merger policies commonly used to deal with troubled financial institutions during crises have important implications for systemic risk. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian inference, financial crises, sample selection, mergers, banking networks |
| JEL: | G21 C30 N12 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10597&r=his |
| By: | Pailey, Robtel Neajai |
| Abstract: | Attempting to reduce America’s dependence on foreign-sourced rubber, Firestone established in 1926 the world’s largest industrial plantation in Liberia under a controversial 99-year-lease agreement. Nearly a century later, backlash against the exploitative nature of corporate hegemony and economic globalisation crystallised in a transnational campaign, Stop Firestone, and class action suit to hold the multinational accountable. I argue in this article that Liberia’s unequal incorporation into global capitalism has configured and reconfigured the set of relations between government and citizens through parallel, albeit interrelated, processes—the globalisation of capital (via trade and investments) and the globalisation of rights (via universalised notions of citizenship as a human right). While the pursuit of foreign direct investment (FDI) in particular placed the interests of investors like Firestone ‘above’ the state thus undermining government–citizen relations, it simultaneously created a politicised workforce and network of Liberian activists thus strengthening citizen–citizen relations. Based on careful review of concession agreements and court proceedings as well as interviews conducted with government officials, activists and legal advocates based in Liberia and the United States, this article is the first to meld historical and contemporary developments, underscoring the twenty-first century implications of Firestone’s enduring exploitation of Liberian land and labour. |
| Keywords: | capitalism; citizenship; Firestone; globalisation; labour rights; Liberia; T&F deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2023–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119893&r=his |
| By: | Gregori Galofre-Vila (Universitat de Valencia) |
| Abstract: | I study the link between the 1923 German hyperinflation and health by linking monthly data on the cost-of-living index with monthly infant and cause-specific adult mortality rates in 280 cities. By exploring panel data with a range of fixed effects, I find that hyperinflation boosted mortality rates. The largest increases in mortality came from rises in amenable mortality, which are cause-specific deaths plausibly linked to deteriorating social conditions over the short-term, such as deaths from influenza, meningitis, scarlet fever, tuberculosis, and whooping cough. I also rely on children's heights and weights to show that worsening health was related to impaired nutrition. The results are robust to a range of specifications, placebo tests, and Conley standard errors. |
| Keywords: | Hyperinflation, monetary policy, mortality, anthropometry, weimar |
| JEL: | N14 N34 N44 D7 D72 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bci:wpaper:2302&r=his |
| By: | Philipp Ager (University of Mannheim); Marc Goñi (University of Bergen); Kjell Salvanes (Norges Handelshøyskole) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the link between gender-biased technological change in the agricultural sector and structural transformation in Norway. After WWII, Norwegian farms began widely adopting milking machines to replace the hand milking of cows, a task typically performed by women. Combining population-wide panel data from the Norwegian registry with municipality-level data from the Census of Agriculture, we show that the adoption of milking machines triggered a process of structural transformation by displacing young rural women from their traditional jobs on farms in dairy-intensive municipalities. The displaced women moved to urban areas where they acquired a higher level of education and found better-paid employment. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a Roy model of comparative advantage, extended to account for task automation and the gender division of labor in the agricultural sector. We also quantify significant inter-generational effects of this gender-biased technology adoption. Our results imply that the mechanization of farming has broken deeply rooted gender norms, transformed women’s work, and improved their long-term educational and earning opportunities, relative to men. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, World War II, geographic mobility |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J43 J61 N34 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2023-017&r=his |
| By: | Gabor, Daniela |
| Abstract: | Since (at least) Keynes we think of money as a time machine that links the irrevocable past to the uncertain future by credibly storing value. But time as shorthand for uncertainty downplays its role in the emergence of new forms of money. Instead, this paper theorizes monetary time as the set of practices through which the state and private finance order time on their balance sheets in the process of creating credible promises to pay at par. While time makes money, there is no unique temporal order that characterizes money/credit creation in capitalism. Rather, monetary time varies across different modes of organizing credit creation, in relationship banking vs market-based finance where credit is created via securities markets and financed through shadow money, promises to pay backed by collateral securities. The alchemy of (shadow) banking is the alchemy of monetary time, of money that can extinguish time without the state. To illustrate, the paper explores the money-time order perfected by New York broker-dealers in the call market that powered the American credit machine before the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Brokers developed practices for daily re-pricing of collateral securities that rendered call (shadow) money credible stores of value. The day-based temporal order allowed brokers to pump credit into circulation via securities markets, liquidity into the payment system and moneyness into bank and paper money. |
| Date: | 2023–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ajx8f&r=his |
| By: | Bauluz, Luis; Bukowski, Pawel; Fransham, Mark; Lee, Annie; López Forero, Margarita; Novokmet, Filip; Breau, Sébastien; Lee, Neil; Malgouyres, Clement; Schularick, Moritz; Verdugo, Gregory |
| Abstract: | The rise of economic inequalities in advanced economies has been often linked with the growth of spatial inequalities within countries, yet there is limited comparative research that studies the relationship between national and subnational economic inequality. This paper presents the first systematic attempt to create internationally comparable evidence showing how different countries perform in terms of geographic wage inequalities. We create cross-country comparable measures of spatial wage disparities between and within similarly-defined local labour market areas (LLMAs) for Canada, France, (West) Germany, the UK and the US since the 1970s, and assess their contribution to national inequality. By the end of the 2010s, spatial inequalities in LLMA mean wages are similar in Canada, France, Germany and the UK; the US exhibits the highest degree of spatial inequality. Over the study period, spatial inequalities have nearly doubled in all countries, except for France where spatial inequalities have fallen back to 1970s levels. Due to a concomitant increase in within-place inequality, the contribution of places in explaining national wage inequality has remained fairly constant over the 40-year study period, except in the UK where we document a significant increase. Whilst common global social, economic and technological shocks are important drivers of spatial inequality, this variation in levels and trends of spatial inequality opens the way to comparative research exploring the role of national institutions in mediating how global shocks translate into economic disparities between places. |
| Keywords: | regional inequality; wage inequality; local labour markets |
| JEL: | J30 R10 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119922&r=his |
| By: | Juhász, Réka; Lane, Nathaniel (University of Oxford); Rodrik, Dani |
| Abstract: | We discuss the considerable literature that has developed in recent years providing rigorous evidence on how industrial policies work. This literature is a significant improvement over the earlier generation of empirical work, which was largely correlational and marred by interpretational problems. On the whole, the recent crop of papers offers a more positive take on industrial policy. We review the standard rationales and critiques of industrial policy and provide a broad overview of new empirical approaches to measurement. We discuss how the recent literature, paying close attention to measurement, causal inference, and economic structure, is offering a nuanced and contextual understanding of the effects of industrial policy. We re-evaluate the East Asian experience with industrial policy in light of recent results. Finally, we conclude by reviewing how industrial policy is being reshaped by a new understanding of governance, a richer set of policy instruments beyond subsidies, and the reality of de-industrialization. |
| Date: | 2023–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gsyq4&r=his |
| By: | Ager, Philipp (University of Mannheim); Goñi, Marc (University of Bergen); Salvanes, Kjell Gunnar (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the link between gender-biased technological change in the agricultural sector and structural transformation in Norway. After WWII, Norwegian farms began widely adopting milking machines to replace the hand milking of cows, a task typically performed by women. Combining population-wide panel data from the Norwegian registry with municipality-level data from the Census of Agriculture, we show that the adoption of milking machines triggered a process of structural transformation by displacing young rural women from their traditional jobs on farms in dairy-intensive municipalities. The displaced women moved to urban areas where they acquired a higher level of education and found better-paid employment. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a Roy model of comparative advantage, extended to account for task automation and the gender division of labor in the agricultural sector. We also quantify significant inter-generational effects of this gender-biased technology adoption. Our results imply that the mechanization of farming has broken deeply rooted gender norms, transformed women’s work, and improved their long-term educational and earning opportunities, relative to men. |
| Keywords: | Farming; Gender bias |
| JEL: | J16 |
| Date: | 2023–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2023_016&r=his |
| By: | A. Fronzetti Colladon; B. Guardabascio; F. Venturini |
| Abstract: | Which technological linkages affect the sector's ability to innovate? How do these effects transmit through the technology space? This paper answers these two key questions using novel methods of text mining and network analysis. We examine technological interdependence across sectors over a period of half a century (from 1976 to 2021) by analyzing the text of 6.5 million patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), and applying network analysis to uncover the full spectrum of linkages existing across technology areas. We demonstrate that patent text contains a wealth of information often not captured by traditional innovation metrics, such as patent citations. By using network analysis, we document that indirect linkages are as important as direct connections and that the former would remain mostly hidden using more traditional measures of indirect linkages, such as the Leontief inverse matrix. Finally, based on an impulse-response analysis, we illustrate how technological shocks transmit through the technology (network-based) space, affecting the innovation capacity of the sectors. |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2308.00014&r=his |
| By: | Zak, Nikolay; Gibbs, Philip |
| Abstract: | Madame Calment’s extraordinary longevity claim has significantly influenced current estimates of human lifespan. However, recent evidence raises doubts about the authenticity of her record. We compare two competing hypotheses: the base scenario, which assumes that Jeanne’s daughter Yvonne died in 1934, and the switch scenario, which proposes that Yvonne assumed her mother’s identity in 1933. Our analysis suggests that the available evidence supports the switch scenario and contradicts the previously accepted base scenario. This study emphasizes the need to re-evaluate the evidence and highlights the importance of DNA testing (subject to approval by the French authorities). The case of Jeanne Calment was considered the gold standard for age validation. Our research shows that documentation is not always sufficient to verify cases of exceptional longevity. This has important implications for our understanding of the upper limits of human lifespan and demographic patterns in extreme ages. |
| Date: | 2023–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jgmsc&r=his |
| By: | Blaber, Richard Michael |
| Abstract: | Thomas Malthus predicted that human population would always grow faster than food production, but the ‘Green Revolution’ of the 1960s appeared to disprove his thesis. Now anthropogenic climate change, with its adverse impacts on crop yields, the supply of water for irrigation, and the health and increased mortality of farm animals, is once again threatening to vindicate him, as human population grows from 8 billion now to an estimated 9.74 billion by 2050. Human-induced biodiversity loss is compounding this problem. |
| Date: | 2023–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wef2n&r=his |
| By: | Cédric Perrin (IDHES - Institutions et Dynamiques Historiques de l'Économie et de la Société - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | Au début des années 1920, les artisans français s'organisaient en artisanat. Le mot lui-même apparaît à cette date. L'artisanat a donc un siècle et le moment paraît opportun pour revenir sur son histoire. Depuis l'industrialisation au XIXe siècle, il paraissait pourtant voué à disparaître. Cette disparition n'a pas eu lieu. L'artisanat affiche au contraire au début du XXIe siècle une vitalité certaine. Le livre cherche donc à comprendre les raisons de cette disparition non advenue. Le XXe siècle des artisans propose une synthèse, dans un format accessible à tous, de la recherche sur un siècle d'histoire des artisans. Au fil des chapitres, le livre questionne et déconstruit quelques-unes des nombreuses idées reçues sur l'artisanat, à commencer par le mythe de sa disparition. |
| Date: | 2023–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04165027&r=his |