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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2022‒09‒05
sixteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford); Korchmina, Elena (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides decadal estimates of GDP per capita for the Russian Empire from the 1690s to the 1880s. GDP per capita in the 1880s was barely 3 per cent higher than in the 1690s, but this was not the result of continuous stagnation. Rather, positive growth during the first half of the eighteenth century was followed by negative growth between the 1760s and 1800s and stagnation from the 1800s to the 1880s. The main driver of this variation in GDP per capita was the relationship between population and land, with land per capita increasing to the 1760s, then declining to the 1800s and staying stable during the nineteenth century. This suggests that serfdom may not have been as strong a barrier to eighteenth century growth as has often been suggested, nor its abolition in 1861 as significant for subsequent growth. Although large-scale industry grew more rapidly than the rest of the economy, particularly after Peter the Great’s reforms in the early eighteenth century, this had only a minor effect on the economy as a whole, as it was starting from a very low base and still only accounted for 10 per cent of GDP by the 1880s. Russian economic growth before the 1760s resulted in catching-up on northwest Europe, but this was followed by a period of relative decline, leaving mid-nineteenth century Russia further behind than at the beginning of the eighteenth century. Key words: Great Divergence ; China ; regional variation ; GDP per head |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:626&r= |
| By: | Berbée, Paul; Braun, Sebastian; Franke, Richard |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that 19th-century industrialization is an important determinant of the significant changes in Germany's economic geography observed in recent decades. Using novel data on economic activity in 163 labor market regions in West Germany, we establish that nearly half of them experienced a reversal of fortune between 1926 and 2019, i.e., they moved from the lower to the upper median of the income distribution or vice versa. Economic decline is concentrated in North Germany, economic ascent in the South. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in access to coal, we show that early industrialization turned from an advantage for economic development to a burden after World War II. The dominant position of heavy industry, supported by the local political-administrative system, limited regional adaptability when the old industries fell into crisis. Today, the early industrialized regions suffer from low innovation and deindustrialization. The (time-varying) effect of industrialization explains most of the decline in regional inequality observed in the 1960s and 1970s and about half of the current north-south gap in economic development. |
| Keywords: | industrialization,economic development,regional inequality |
| JEL: | N91 N92 O14 R12 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:22025&r= |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Sharun Mukand; Ivan Yotzov |
| Abstract: | Persecution, pogroms, and genocide have plagued humanity for centuries, costing millions of lives and haunting survivors. Economists and economic historians have recently made new contributions to the understanding of these phenomena. We provide a novel conceptual framework which highlights the inter-relationship between the intensity of persecution and migration patterns across dozens of historical episodes. Using this framework as a lens, we survey the growing literature on the causes and consequences of persecution, pogroms, and genocide. Finally, we discuss gaps in the literature and take several tentative steps towards explaining the differences in survival rates of European Jews in the 20th century. |
| Keywords: | Innovation System; Genocide, Persecution, Migration, Immigration restrictions, Exit or Voice |
| JEL: | D74 F22 F51 N4 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:109&r= |
| By: | Berbée, Paul (ZEW); Braun, Sebastian Till (University of Bayreuth); Franke, Richard (University of Bayreuth) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that 19th-century industrialization is an important determinant of the significant changes in Germany’s economic geography observed in recent decades. Using novel data on economic activity in 163 labor market regions in West Germany, we establish that nearly half of them experienced a reversal of fortune between 1926 and 2019, i.e., they moved from the lower to the upper median of the income distribution or vice versa. Economic decline is concentrated in North Germany, economic ascent in the South. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in access to coal, we show that early industrialization turned from an advantage for economic development to a burden after World War II. The dominant position of heavy industry, supported by the local political-administrative system, limited regional adaptability when the old industries fell into crisis. Today, the early industrialized regions suffer from low innovation and deindustrialization. The (time-varying) effect of industrialization explains most of the decline in regional inequality observed in the 1960s and 1970s and about half of the current north-south gap in economic development. |
| Keywords: | industrialization, economic development, regional inequality |
| JEL: | N91 N92 O14 R12 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15463&r= |
| By: | Moriguchi, Chiaki; Sng, Tuan-Hwee |
| Abstract: | This paper is organized into four themes. We first appraise the views of historical thinkers in the East and West on the consequences of the size of polities. Next, we survey modern historical studies on the relationship between polity size and governance. We then discuss attempts to provide a unified framework on the causes and consequences of polity size. Finally, we explore how history can illuminate our understanding of the size of polities. |
| Keywords: | Size of Nations, Country Size and Governance, Institutions and Growth, Comparative Institutional Analysis |
| JEL: | H1 N0 N4 N90 P48 P5 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2022-02&r= |
| By: | Mr. Johannes Wiegand |
| Abstract: | In the early 1870s, the global monetary system transitioned from bimetallism—a regime in which gold and silver currencies were tied at quasi-fixed exhange ratios—to the gold standard that was characterized by the use of (only) gold as the main currency metal by the largest and most advanced economies. The transition ocurred against the backdrop of both large supply shifts in global bullion markets in the 1850s and 60s and momentous political events, such as the Franco-Prussian war of 1870/71 and the subsequent foundation of the German empire. The causes for the transition have long been a matter of intense debate. This article discusses three separate but interrelated issues: (i) assessing the robustness of the pre-1870 bimetallic system to shocks—which includes a discussion of the appropriate use of Flandreau’s (1996) reference model; (ii) analyzing the transition from bimetallism to gold as a multi-stage currency game played by France and Germany; and (iii) evaluating the monetary debates at the German Handelstag conferences in the 1860s, to present a more complete narrative of the German discussion in the run-up to the transition. |
| Keywords: | Bimetallism; Gold Standard; France; Germany; Gold share; Bimetallism's robustness; estimating specie demand; structural limit; share of silver coin; Gold; Silver; Currencies; Currency reform; Stocks; Global |
| Date: | 2022–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/119&r= |
| By: | Rodolfo G. Campos (Banco de España); Iliana Reggio (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); Jacopo Timini (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Between the 1940s and 1970s, Spain used a variety of economic policies that hindered international trade. Because the mix of tariffs, quotas, administrative barriers, and exchange rate regimes varied greatly over time, the quantification of the effect of the various trade policies on international trade in this period is particularly elusive. In this paper, we use historical bilateral trade flows and a structural gravity model to quantify the evolution of Spain’s border thickness, a summary measure of its barriers to international trade. We find that Spain’s borders in the period 1948-1975 were thicker than those of any other country in Western Europe, even after the liberalization of trade that started in 1959. These comparatively higher impediments to international trade implied substantial negative effects on consumer welfare. We estimate that accumulated welfare costs over the period 1948-1975 exceed 20% of a year’s total consumption. |
| Keywords: | Spain, Stabilization Plan, international trade, autarky |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F62 N74 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2209&r= |
| By: | Sergio Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50% and cumulative excess mortality by 24% to 34%. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers. |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2207.11636&r= |
| By: | Maureen L. Cropper; Nicholas Z. Muller; Yongjoon Park; Victoria Perez-Zetune |
| Abstract: | We examine whether counties designated as out of attainment with the NAAQS under the 1970 CAA experienced larger reductions in TSP during the 1970s than attainment counties. We answer this question using the official designation of nonattainment status which, between 1972 and 1978, was by Air Quality Control Region (AQCR). Data from balanced panels of TSP monitors in operation from 1969-78 and in operation from 1971-78 are used to examine the impact of nonattainment status on TSP. We also examine the impact of nonattainment on TSP using the definition in the literature, which designates a county as out of attainment if any of its monitors violated the NAAQS. Using the official designation of nonattainment, TSP, on average, fell by over 9 μg/m3 more in non-attainment than in attainment counties, controlling for county and year fixed effects, county population, employment, and per capita income. The average treatment effect is 10.2 μg/m3 using the 1969 panel and 9.1 μg/m3 using the 1971 panel. Using the definition of nonattainment in the literature yields similar, albeit smaller, average treatment effects: 6.0 μg/m3 using the 1969-78 panel and 7.7 μg/m3 using the 1971-78 panel. |
| JEL: | Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30312&r= |
| By: | Angel De la Fuente; Pep Ruiz |
| Abstract: | En este Documento de Trabajo se describe brevemente la última actualización del módulo sectorial de la base de datos RegData FEDEA-BBVA. This Working Paper briefly describes the latest update of the sectoral module of the RegData FEDEA-BBVA, with the main Regional Accounts Indicators. |
| Keywords: | Sectors, Sectores, Remuneration, Remuneración, income, renta, prices, precios, Employment, Empleo, Spain, España, Regional Analysis Spain, Análisis Regional España, Working Papers, Documento de Trabajo |
| JEL: | E01 R1 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2207&r= |
| By: | C. Justin Cook; Jason Fletcher |
| Abstract: | We hypothesize that the impact of antibiotics is moderated by a population’s inherent (genetic) resistance to infectious disease. Using the introduction of sulfa drugs in 1937, we show that US states that are more genetically susceptible to infectious disease saw larger declines in their bacterial mortality rates following the introduction of sulfa drugs in 1937. This suggests area-level genetic endowments of disease resistance and the discovery of medical technologies have acted as substitutes in determining levels of health across the US. We also document immediate effects of sulfa drug exposure to the age of the workforce and cumulative effects on educational attainment for cohorts exposed to sulfa drugs in early life. |
| JEL: | I1 I14 I15 J1 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30269&r= |
| By: | Christopher D. Cotton; Vaishali Garga |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of shifts in the industrial composition of the economy on the distribution of the frequency of price change and its consequences for the slope of the Phillips curve for the United States. By combining product-level microdata on the frequency of price change with data on industry shares from 1947 through 2019, we document that shifts in industrial composition led to a gradual reduction in the median monthly frequency of price change from 9.2 percent in 1947 to 6.9 percent in 2019. Other percentiles of the distribution of the frequency of price change show similar reductions. These declines were broadly driven by a shift in the industrial composition of the economy from primary and secondary industries toward service industries. In a calibrated multisector general equilibrium menu cost model, we find that this effect flattened the Phillips curve by 28.5 percent from 1947 to 2019. However, despite a flatter Phillips curve, persistent shocks to aggregate demand still can cause significant inflation. |
| Keywords: | industrial composition; inflation; services; price rigidity; Phillips curve |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2022–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:94618&r= |
| By: | Segovia, Alexander |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo se analizan los vínculos que existen entre los modelos económicos y las modalidades de capitalismo vigentes en Centroamérica desde la segunda mitad del siglo XX hasta el presente; se identifican los actores y los factores que históricamente han incidido en la configuración de los tipos de capitalismo en la región y se presentan recomendaciones para la formulación de modelos económicos transformadores, eficientes, incluyentes y sostenibles. |
| Keywords: | DESARROLLO ECONOMICO, POLITICA ECONOMICA, CAPITALISMO, MODELOS DE DESARROLLO, CEPAL, PENSAMIENTO, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC POLICY, CAPITALISM, DEVELOPMENT MODELS, ECLAC, THINKING |
| Date: | 2022–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col031:48014&r= |
| By: | James B. Bullard |
| Abstract: | St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard talked about the academic literature related to “credible” versus “incredible” disinflation and how that may apply to current conditions. He spoke before the Money Marketeers of New York University. Current inflation in the U.S. and the euro area (EA) is near 1970s levels, Bullard said. The disinflation under former Fed Chair Paul Volcker was costly, he added, but it was not credible initially—Volcker had to earn credibility. Nobel laureate and economist Thomas Sargent initiated a literature on costless disinflation (“soft landings”) that emphasized inflation expectations as the key variable, not the Phillips curve, Bullard noted. Subsequent literature illustrated how credibility might be earned in models that depart from rational expectations, he said. “The Fed and the ECB [European Central Bank] have considerable credibility compared with their 1970s counterparts, suggesting that a soft landing is feasible in the U.S. and the EA if the post-pandemic regime shift is executed well,” Bullard concluded. |
| Keywords: | inflation; disinflation; soft landings; costless disinflation |
| Date: | 2022–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlps:94556&r= |
| By: | Adjisse, Sossou Simplice |
| Keywords: | International Development, Teaching, Communication, and Extension, Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:322512&r= |
| By: | Schuster, Caroline; Kar, Sohini |
| Abstract: | In the decade since the 2008 global financial crisis, much of the debate has been over whom to blame: reckless speculative finance or irresponsible (often low-income) borrowers. This essay takes up this set of moral arguments about what the poor can and should be able to afford by examining subprime logics at a global scale: subprime empire. Predatory lending in heartland America and development-oriented microcredit in places such as India and Paraguay appear not just to be geographically disparate but also to have different moral valences. After closer inspection, however, we argue that subprime lending and microfinance are two sides of the same coin. Our analysis of microfinance allows us to understand what is happening in the “in-between” as capital flows between financial investors and poor borrowers. By comparing financialization in India and Paraguay, we document and theorize the making of subprime empires that rely on actors within marginal financial sites to stabilize the evaluative frameworks and social interdependencies that make profits flow. We argue that the forms of financial capture and conversion in the “financial in-between” reproduce imperial dynamics by naturalizing the limited expectations of economic subjects of the global south and erasing the violence inherent in these forms of economic redistribution that maintain those expectations as such. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 N0 |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112809&r= |