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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2021‒12‒13
thirty-six papers chosen by |
| By: | Sofia Teives Henriques (University of Porto, CEFUP, Portugal); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR); Xanthi Tsoukli (University of Bamberg, Germany); Christian Vedel (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Economic historians have debated the importance of energy for economic development. Energy economists would argue that energy systems need to be adaptable in the face of shocks. In this light, we consider the case of Denmark, a country which was almost entirely dependent on imports of coal, and where a long coastline made imports, largely from the UK, cheap and available. Towards the end of the First World War, however, and well into the 1920s, coal imports were cut off or difficult to obtain. We exploit detailed microlevel data from butter factories, covering the period 1900-28. We find that firms were able to adapt and make use of alternative fuels, notably peat, although its availability varied across the country. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we find significant productivity advantages for creameries closer to available peat fields in the wake of the coal shortage. |
| Keywords: | Coal, dairying, Denmark, energy, geography, peat, productivity |
| JEL: | N54 O13 Q40 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0220&r= |
| By: | Scott A. Carson |
| Abstract: | In migration studies, immigrant health is a concern before, during, and after migration. This study uses a large late 19th and early 20th century data set of over 20 US prisons to assess migrant net nutrition. Native-born individuals were taller and had the lowest BMIs. International immigrants had lower BMIs and shorter statures. After controlling for other characteristics, native-born females had lower BMIs than men; however, foreign-born women’s’ BMIs were higher than domestic-born women. Females and males with darker complexions had greater BMIs than their counterparts with fairer complexions. |
| Keywords: | nineteenth century US health, immigrant health, BMI, malnourishment |
| JEL: | I12 I31 J31 J70 N31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9411&r= |
| By: | Grytten, Ola Honningdal (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | The present paper seeks to investigate the importance of financial instability during four banking crises, with focus on the small open economy of Norway. The crises elaborated on are the Post First world war crisis of the early 1920s, the mid 1920s Monetary crisis, the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Scandinavian banking crisis of 1987-1993. <p> The paper firstly offers a brief description of the financial instability hypothesis as applied by Minsky, Kindleberger, and in a new explicit dynamic financial crisis model. Financial instability creation basically happens in times of overheating, overspending and over lending, i.e., during significant booms, and have devastating effects after markets have turned into a state of crises. <p> Thereafter, the paper tests the validity of the financial instability hypothesis by using a quantitative structural time series model. The test reveals upheaval of financial and macroeconomic indicators prior to the crises, making the economy overheat and create asset bubbles due to huge growth in debt. These conditions caused the following banking crises. <p> Finally, the four crises are discussed qualitatively. The conclusion is that significant increase in money supply and debt caused overheating, asset bubbles and finally financial and banking crises which spread to the real economy. |
| Keywords: | Financial crises; banking crises; financial stability; macroeconomic; economic history; monetary expansion |
| JEL: | E44 E51 E52 F34 G15 N24 |
| Date: | 2021–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2021_018&r= |
| By: | Diaz-Cayeros, Alberto (Stanford University); Espinosa-Balbuena, Juan (Stanford University); Jha, Saumitra |
| Abstract: | It is well-established that the Conquest of the Americas by Europeans led to catastrophic declines in indigenous populations. However, less is known about the conditions under which indigenous communities were able to overcome the onslaught of disease and violence that they faced. Drawing upon a rich set of sources, including Aztec tribute rolls and early Conquest censuses, we develop a new disaggregated dataset on the pre-Conquest economic, epidemiological and political conditions both in 11,888 potential settlement locations in the historic core of Mexico and specifically in 1093 actual settlements recorded in an early Conquest-era census, the Suma de Visitas (1548). Of these 1093 settlements, we show that 37% had disappeared entirely by 1790. Yet, despite being subject to Conquest-era violence, subsequent coercion and multiple pandemics that led average populations in those settlements to fall from 2377 to 128 by 1646, 13% would still end the colonial era larger than they started. We show that both indigenous settlement survival durations and population levels through the colonial period are robustly predicted, not just by Spanish settler choices or by their diseases, but also by the extent to which indigenous communities could themselves leverage non- replicable and non-expropriable resources and skills from the pre-Columbian period that would prove complementary to global trade. Thus indigenous opportunities and agency played important roles in shaping their own resilience. |
| JEL: | I15 N36 N76 N96 O10 P48 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3977&r= |
| By: | Samuel Bazzi (BU - Boston University [Boston]); Gabriel Koehler-Derrick (Harvard University [Cambridge]); Benjamin Marx (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Why do religious politics thrive in some societies but not others? This paper explores the institutional foundations of this process in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim democracy. We show that a major Islamic institution, the waqf, fostered the entrenchment of political Islam at a critical historical juncture. In the early 1960s, rural elites transferred large amounts of land into waqf —a type of inalienable charitable trust—to avoid expropriation by the government as part of a major land reform effort. Although the land reform was later undone, the waqf properties remained. We show that greater intensity of the planned reform led to more prevalent waqf land and Islamic institutions endowed as such, including religious schools, which are strongholds of the Islamist movement. We identify lasting effects of the reform on electoral support for Islamist parties, preferences for religious candidates, and the adoption of Islamic legal regulations (sharia). Overall, the land reform contributed to the resilience and eventual rise of political Islam by helping to spread religious institutions, thereby solidifying the alliance between local elites and Islamist groups. These findings shed new light on how religious institutions may shape politics in modern democracies. |
| Keywords: | Religion,Institutions,Land reform,Islam,Sharia Law |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03391857&r= |
| By: | Scott A. Carson |
| Abstract: | A population’s average stature reflects cumulative net nutrition and changing long-run economic conditions facing women’s economic opportunity, inequality, and net nutrition during development. This study uses stature as a measure for cumulative net nutrition to show how female and male statures varied around the US Civil War. Male statures and net nutrition decreased more than females with industrialization, indicating that women’s net nutrition improved relative to men with emancipation and industrialization. The net nutrition of women in agricultural occupations was greater than women in other occupations; however, male stature returns associated with occupations increased more than women with the transition to free-labor. |
| Keywords: | nutrition transition by gender, stature by gender, economic transitions |
| JEL: | C10 C40 D10 I10 N30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9402&r= |
| By: | Alvaro Calderon (Alvaro Calderon); Vasiliki Fouka (Vasiliki Fouka); Marco Tabellini (Marco Tabellini) |
| Abstract: | Between 1940 and 1970, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the United States, during the Second Great Migration. This same period witnessed the struggle and eventual success of the civil rights movement in ending institutionalized racial discrimination. This paper shows that the Great Migration and support for civil rights are causally linked. Predicting Black inflows with a shift-share instrument, we find that the Great Migration raised support for the Democratic Party, increased Congress members’ propensity to promote civil rights legislation, and encouraged pro-civil rights activism outside the US South. We provide different pieces of evidence that support for civil rights was not confined to the Black electorate, but was also shared by segments of the white population. |
| Keywords: | Race, diversity, civil rights, Great Migration |
| JEL: | D72 J15 N92 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2133&r= |
| By: | Cécile Edlinger (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Maxime Merli (UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg); Antoine Parent (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we propose an original analysis of advice given by financial analysts prior to WW1. Our article focuses on the writings of A. Neymarck, one of the most popular French analysts in the early 20th Century. The creation of portfolios from a new database composed of the monthly returns of all the security types listed on the official Paris Stock Exchange from 1903 to 1912 has provided results demonstrating that Neymarck correctly identified the risk in a number of sectors. The performances of these portfolios, which were built according to Neymarck's guidelines, confirm Neymarck's ranking in terms of both risk and return: the richer the investor, the riskier and the more profitable his portfolio was seen to be. Finally, the Modern Portfolio Theory enables us to pinpoint the few imperfections in Neymarck's advice, which globally appears to be driven by reliable financial analysis. |
| Keywords: | Portfolio advice,Diversification before WW1,Financial markets prior WW1 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03403339&r= |
| By: | Denis Cogneau (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yannick Dupraz (UCD - University College Dublin [Dublin]); Justine Knebelmann (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on the fiscal trajectories of 18 former French colonies in Africa from colonial times to the present. Building upon own previous work about colonial public finance (Cogneau et al., 2021), we compile a novel dataset by combining previously available data with recently digitized data from historical archives, to produce continuous and comparable public revenue data series from 1900 to 2018. This allows us to study the evolution of the level and composition of fiscal revenues in the post-colonial decades, with a special focus on the critical juncture of independence. We find that very few countries achieved significant progress in fiscal capacity between the end of the colonial period and today, if we set aside income drawn from mineral resources. This is not explained by a lasting collapse of fiscal capacity at the time of independence. From 1960 to today, the reliance on mineral resource revenues increased on average and dependence on international commodity prices persisted, with few exceptions. The relative contribution of trade taxes declined after the structural adjustments, and lost trade revenues were not compensated by a sufficient increase in domestic taxes. However, for the most recent period, we do note an improvement in the capacity to collect taxes on the domestic economy. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03420664&r= |
| By: | Daniil Morozov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This research studies the German influence on “the Imaginative Absolute” of Yakov Golosovker, whose philosophical legacy has not yet been reflected in the history of Russian thought. His legacy and its diverse intellectual themes is investigated using archival materials. The article is divided into three parts: a dialogue with the “eternal companion” Holderlin, a struggle with Kant, and a dialogue with the “eternal companion” Nietzsche. Such a structure allows the author to identify, link, and problematize the fundamental philosophical foundations of Golosovker's system and embed his legacy into the Russian-German intellectual dialogue. The research is carried out as part of an ongoing study. |
| Keywords: | Golosovker, imagination, Holderlin, Kant, ratio, Nietzsche, mythmaking, romanticism |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:204/hum/2021&r= |
| By: | Belmar, José; Gentile Passaro, Diego |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of railroad and road infrastructure on local economic development through the study of massive transport infrastructure changes in Argentina. Following a World Bank study, 10,000 kilometers of railroads were closed and 18,000 kilometers of paved roads were built between 1960 and 1991. Our empirical strategy relies on instrumental variables that exploit a discontinuity in how experts chose railroad segments to be studied for closure and hypothetical networks connecting main cities. We show that conventional IV estimates can be misleading when omitting potential substitution of different transport modes. We find that dismantling railroads had a negative impact on population and industrial production, and shifted the distribution of labor away from agriculture. On the other hand, we find weak evidence of roads construction having a positive impact on the share of employment in manufacturing and non-tradable industries, but no impacts on total population nor industrial production. |
| Keywords: | Aduanas, Agricultura, Ciudades, Comunicación, Infraestructura, Investigación socioeconómica, Políticas públicas, Transporte, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:1714&r= |
| By: | Michael Kremer; Jack Willis; Yang You |
| Abstract: | Empirical tests in the 1990s found little evidence of poor countries catching up with rich - unconditional convergence - since the 1960s, and divergence over longer periods. This stylized fact spurred several developments in growth theory, including AK models, poverty trap models, and the concept of convergence conditional on determinants of steady-state income. We revisit these findings, using the subsequent 25 years as an out-of-sample test, and document a trend towards unconditional convergence since 1990 and convergence since 2000, driven by both faster catch-up growth and slower growth of the frontier. During the same period, many of the correlates of growth - human capital, policies, institutions, and culture - also converged substantially and moved in the direction associated with higher income. Were these changes related? Using the omitted variable bias formula, we decompose the gap between unconditional and conditional convergence as the product of two cross-sectional slopes. First, correlate-income slopes, which remained largely stable since 1990. Second, growth-correlate slopes controlling for income - the coefficients of growth regressions - which remained stable for fundamentals of the Solow model (investment rate, population growth, and human capital) but which flattened substantially for other correlates, leading unconditional convergence to converge towards conditional convergence. |
| JEL: | E02 O11 O4 O43 O47 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29484&r= |
| By: | Dean Parker; Moritz Schularick |
| Abstract: | The term spread is the difference between interest rates on short- and long-dated government securities. It is often referred to as a predictor of the business cycle. In particular, inversions of the yield curve—a negative term spread—are considered an early warning sign. Such inversions typically receive a lot of attention in policy debates when they occur. In this post, we point to another property of the term spread, namely its predictive ability for financial crisis events, both internationally and in historical U.S. data. We study the predictive power of the term spread for financial instability events in the United States and internationally over the past 150 years. |
| Keywords: | yield curve; financial crisis |
| JEL: | E58 E5 N0 G01 |
| Date: | 2021–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93395&r= |
| By: | Peter Galbács (Budapest Business School) |
| Date: | 2021–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03414823&r= |
| By: | Peter Galbács (Budapest Business School) |
| Date: | 2021–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03415992&r= |
| By: | Marina Vergeles (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The sex gap in life expectancy (LE) at birth is currently narrowing in all high-income countries. Previous research on Western European and English-speaking (WE&ES) countries suggested that smoking-related mortality at ages 50+ was largely responsible for both widening and subsequent narrowing of the gap. However, countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have had particularly high excess male mortality at young and middle ages that couldn`t be fully attributed to the smoking-related causes. We use the Human Mortality Database to examine the patterns and time trends in male/female differences in LE across 41 high-income countries and 7 country groups from 1959 until the latest available year. Contour decomposition is applied to estimate the contribution of different ages to the maximum sex gap and its change ever since. While the UK was the first country to reach the peak in the sex gap in 1969, Greece did it half a century later, in 2009. The largest male disadvantage in LE was observed in Russia in 2005 (13.7 years), Israel had a peak in 1999 with just 4.4 years. There is a persistent difference between countries and particularly country groups in the age-specific contribution to the maximum sex gap. In WE&ES countries ages older than 50 play the major role in determining the sex gap while CEE countries have high excess male mortality in young and middle ages (20-50). The narrowing of the sex gap in CEE countries hasn`t substantially changed the age contribution. Mortality at ages younger than 50 still plays an important role in determining the sex gap in LE in these countries. Differences in the sex gap between countries add a new dimension to a previously established East-West mortality divide. Country specifics must be taken into account to develop public health policies aimed at reducing sex mortality inequalities |
| Keywords: | sex gap in life expectancy, gender differences in health, mortality, decomposition. |
| JEL: | J10 J11 I14 N32 N34 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:98/soc/2021&r= |
| By: | Mihail-Valentin Cernea (Bucharest University of Economic Studies) |
| Date: | 2021–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03416022&r= |
| By: | Pierre-Antoine Dessaux (Université de Tours, CITERES - Cités, Territoires, Environnement et Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Tours, CoST - Construction Sociale et politique des espaces, des normes et des Trajectoires - CITERES - Cités, Territoires, Environnement et Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Tours) |
| Abstract: | Crédit agricole is a banking institution based on a network of regional banks with cooperative status. Although often considered as exercising the power in the institution, the group of managers of the regional banks is, with the exception of a few public figures, not well known. The purpose here is to initiate an investigation into this group of executives, which comprises several hundred members on a twentieth century scale. This group was forged in the 1930s through the implementation of control and management rules common to the regional banks and their growing contribution to the development of the institution's general policy alongside the representatives of their members. |
| Abstract: | : Souvent présentés comme disposant du contrôle effectif de l'organisation coopérative hybride qu'est le Crédit agricole, les cadres dirigeants des caisses régionales, entreprises coopératives qui en forment l'unité de base, sont pourtant mal connus en dehors de quelques figures publiques qui ont un temps incarné l'institution. Il s'agit ici d'initier une enquête sur ce groupe de cadres qui comprend plusieurs centaines de membres à l'échelle du xx e siècle. Ce groupe se forge à partir des années 1930 au travers de la mise en place de règles de contrôle et de gestion communes aux caisses et de leur contribution croissante à l'élaboration de la politique générale de l'institution aux côtés des représentants des sociétaires. |
| Keywords: | Cadres d’entreprise,Banques coopératives,Credit Agricole |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03393403&r= |
| By: | Rohini Pande; Helena Roy |
| Abstract: | Alfred Marshall and Mary Paley Marshall are often described as the first academic economist couple. Both studied at Cambridge University, where Paley became one of the first women to take the Tripos exam and the first female lecturer in economics, with Marshall’s encouragement. But in later life, Marshall opposed granting Cambridge degrees to women and their participation in academic economics. This paper recounts Alfred Marshall’s use of gender norms, born out of a separate spheres ideology, to promote and ingrain women’s exclusion in academic economics and beyond. We demonstrate the persistence of this ideology and resultant norms, drawing parallels between gendered inequities in labor market outcomes for Cambridge graduates in the UK post-Industrial Revolution and those apparent in cross-country data today. We argue that the persistence of the norms produced by separate spheres ideologies is likely to reflect, at least in part, the rents associated with preferential access to better paid, high-skilled labor market opportunities. In doing so, we ask who benefits from gender norms, who enforces them, and suggest relevant policy work and areas for future research. |
| JEL: | B3 J16 J7 O43 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29481&r= |
| By: | Jon Mulberg (Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, The Open University (UK)) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses Beck's concept of reflexive modernity, and a Foucauldian approach, to critique the positivist philosophy associated with contemporary conventional economics, and to show its inadequacy for the environmental emergency. The paper suggests economics is not neutral but performs an ideological function in justifying the political and social order. Economics can be deconstructed by tracing its history, thereby laying bare its philosophical and political roots. The environmental debate repeats past debates of the 1920s and 30s. By employing the 'subjugated' institutional economics approaches economics can be redefined, and the path to a truly Green New Deal can be unearthed. |
| Date: | 2021–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03415964&r= |
| By: | Dragoș Bîgu (Bucharest University of Economic Studies) |
| Date: | 2021–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03416013&r= |
| By: | Harka, Elona (University of Padova); Nunziata, Luca (University of Padova); Rocco, Lorenzo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the legacy of the former Papal States on modern female condition by comparing Italian municipalities located in a narrow band across the border between the former Papal States and the former Grand Duchy of Tuscany. While in the Papal States gender inequality was particularly severe, the Grand Duchy of Tuscany experienced a relatively stronger female emancipation. We find that one century after the fall of the Papal States, in the municipalities formerly ruled by the Pope, there is lower female labour market participation and employment when compared to their counterparts in Tuscany, while we do not detect any discontinuity for males. We also find that in the former Papal States there is less political support for the legal right to divorce, historically advocated by women emancipation movements. |
| Keywords: | papal states, gender equality, female condition, divorce, religion, labour |
| JEL: | N9 J12 P48 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14719&r= |
| By: | Mr. Francisco F. Vazquez |
| Abstract: | This paper studies episodes in which aggregate bank credit contracts alongside expanding economic activity—credit reversals. Using data for 179 countries during 1960‒2017, the paper finds that reversals are a relatively common phenomenon--on average, they occur every five years. By comparison, banking crises take place every eight years on average. Credit reversals and banking crises also appear related to each other: reversals become more likely in the aftermath of banking crises, while the likelihood of crises drops following reversals. In terms of foregone economic activity, reversals are shown to be very costly, at about two-thirds of the costs of banking crises after taking into account their relative frequencies. |
| Keywords: | credit reversal; banking crisis; bank credit contract; credit growth; credit growth distribution; x industrial; credit demand; credit supply and demand; cycle characteristic; banking crises database; Credit; Banking crises; Bank credit; Credit cycles; Global |
| Date: | 2021–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/103&r= |
| By: | Xu, Chenzi (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | I show that a disruption to the financial sector can reshape the patterns of global |
| Abstract: | trade for decades. I study the first modern global banking crisis originating in London in 1866 and collect archival loan records that link multinational banks headquartered there to their exports financing abroad. Countries exposed to bank failures in London immediately exported significantly less and did not recover to pre-crisis trend levels. Their market shares within each destination were significantly lower for four decades. Decomposing the persistent losses shows that they primarily stem from lack of extensive margin growth relative to unexposed countries, as importers sourced more from new and unexposed trade partners. Exporters producing more substitutable goods, those with little access to alternative forms of credit, and those trading with more distant partners experienced more persistent losses, consistent with the existence of sunk costs and the importance of finance for intermediating trade. |
| JEL: | F14 G01 G21 N20 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3995&r= |
| By: | Ogeda, Pedro Molina (Sao Paulo School of Economics); Ornelas, Emanuel (Sao Paulo School of Economics); Soares, Rodrigo R. (Insper, São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | We show that the Brazilian trade liberalization in the early 1990s led to a permanent relative decline in the vote share of left-wing presidential candidates in the regions more affected by the tariff cuts. This happened even though the shock, implemented by a right-wing party, induced a contraction in manufacturing and formal employment in the more affected regions, and despite the left's identification with protectionist policies. To rationalize this response, we consider a new institutional channel for the political effects of trade shocks: the weakening of labor unions. We provide support for this mechanism in two steps. First, we show that union presence—proxied by the number of workers directly employed by unions, by union density, and by the number of union establishments—declined in regions that became more exposed to foreign competition. Second, we show that the negative effect of tariff reductions on the votes for the left was driven exclusively by political parties with historical links to unions. Furthermore, the impact of the trade liberalization on the vote share of these parties was significant only in regions that had unions operating before the reform. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that tariff cuts reduced the vote share of the left partly through the weakening of labor unions. This institutional channel is fundamentally different from the individual-level responses, motivated by economic or identity concerns, that have been considered in the literature. |
| Keywords: | trade shocks, elections, unions, Brazil |
| JEL: | F13 D72 J51 F16 F14 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14849&r= |
| By: | Alexandre Chirat |
| Abstract: | Baumol’s impact on the development of managerial theories of the firm is investigated here through material found in Galbraith’s archives. In 1957 Galbraith published a paper claiming that the impact of macroeconomic policies varies with market structures (competitive versus oligopolistic). That publication prompted Baumol (1958b) to send Galbraith a manuscript dealing extensively with a crucial question of managerial theories of the firm, namely, the trade-off between sales and profits. I argue that Baumol’s critiques and Galbraith’s answers largely explain the way Baumol (1958a, 1959) framed his alternative model of the behavior of corporations. He reasoned in terms of maximization of sales with a profit constraint as their main objective. In return, Business Behavior, Value and Growth fostered the development of Marris’ (1964) and Galbraith’s (1967) theories of the corporation. While Tullock (1978) provides a narrative in which the sales maximization hypothesis has two main branches – Baumol for the one and Galbraith-Marris for the other – the paper demonstrates that these branches are intimately connected. |
| Keywords: | Baumol – Galbraith – Theory of the firm – Managerialism – Marginalisme |
| JEL: | B21 B22 D43 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2021-35&r= |
| By: | Matthew J. Delventhal; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Nezih Guner |
| Abstract: | The demographic transition --the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime-- is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data. |
| JEL: | J13 N13 O11 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29480&r= |
| By: | Mr. Philip Barrett; Christopher Johns |
| Abstract: | This paper examines ways to summarize the maturity structure of public debts using a small number of parameters. We compile a novel dataset of all promised future payments for US and UK government debt from every month since 1869, and more recently for Peru, Poland, Egypt, and Nigeria. We show that there is a unique parametric form which does not arbitrarily restrict debt issuance – portfolios of bonds with exponential coupons. Compared to the most popular alternative, this form 1) more accurately describes changes in debt maturity for these six countries and 2) gives a quite different interpretation of historical debt maturity. Our work can be applied not just to analyze past debt movements, but – because parameter estimates are relatively similar across countries – also for monitoring changes in debt maturity, including in countries where data are partial or incomplete. |
| Keywords: | maturity structure; debt maturity; MLE estimate; debt issuance; debt obligation; Bonds; Securities markets; Securities; Emerging and frontier financial markets |
| Date: | 2021–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/101&r= |
| By: | Amine Chekireb (Aix-Marseille Univ., CEREGE, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Julio Goncalves (Aix-Marseille Univ., CEREGE, Marseille, France.); Hubert Stahn (aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Agnes Tomini (aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.) |
| Abstract: | We formulate a hydro-economic model of the NorthWestern Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS) to assess the effects of intensive pumping on the groundwater stock and examine the subsequent consequences of aquifer depletion. This large system comprises multi-layer reservoirs with vertical exchanges, all exploited under open access properties. We first develop a theoretical model to account for relevant features of the NWSAS by introducing, in the standard Gisser-Sanchez model, a non-stationary demand and quadratic stock-dependent cost functions. In the second step, we calibrate parameters values using data from the NWSAS over 1955-2000. We finally simulate the time evolution of the aquifer system with exploitation under an open-access regime. We specifically examine time trajectories of the piezometric levels in the two reservoirs, the natural outlets, and the modification of water balances. We find that natural outlets of the two reservoirs might be totally dried before 2050. |
| Keywords: | hydro-economic model, private pumping, multi aquifer system, groundwater-dependant ecosystems, semi-arid region, simulation |
| JEL: | C61 C62 Q15 Q25 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2144&r= |
| By: | Gustave Kenedi (Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Louis Sirugue (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We provide new estimates of intergenerational income mobility in France for children born in the 1970s using rich administrative data. Since parents' incomes are not observed, we employ a two-sample two-stage least squares estimation procedure. At the national level, every measure of intergenerational income persistence (intergenerational elasticities, rank-rank correlations, and transition matrices) suggests that France is characterized by relatively strong persistence relative to other developed countries. Children born to parents in the bottom 20% of their income distribution have a 10.1% probability of reaching the top 20% as adults. This probability is of 39.1% for children born to parents in the top 20%. At the local level, we find substantial spatial variations in intergenerational mobility. It is higher in the West of France and particularly low in the North and in the South. We uncover significant relationships between absolute upward mobility and characteristics of the environment an individual grew up in, such as the unemployment rate, population density, and income inequality. |
| Keywords: | France,Spatial variations,Measurement,Intergenerational mobility |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03455282&r= |
| By: | Botham, Craig |
| Abstract: | The literature on craft guilds assigns them many roles, variously promoting skill acquisition and innovation, reducing transaction costs and asymmetries of information, providing solidarity for members, and wasteful rent seeking. Debate on the latter has typically centred on whether rent seeking was the primary goal of guilds, or whether it was essentially a necessary evil to allow guilds to fulfil their true institutional purpose by incentivizing collective action. It is rarely suggested that guild lobbying may have been a defensive measure against predatory elites, which served to increase economic efficiency and reduce extractive behaviour in the economy as a whole. An implicit assumption seems to be that guild rent seeking disturbs a pre-existing competitive equilibrium in markets and introduces inequality in previously equitable political rights. This essay approaches the topic by synthesising the literature on the rent seeking role of European guilds with that of the role of guilds in urban politics and the literature on firm theory and market structure. It argues that such a synthesis offers insights on imbalances of political and market power that call for a reinterpretation of ‘rent seeking’ behaviour by guilds. Guilds typically faced monopolies and monopsonies backed by an inequality of political power, which their own ‘rent seeking’ sought to overcome. Guilds therefore may have reduced aggregate rent seeking and improved efficiency. A renewed focus on urban politics and market functioning could help paint a more accurate picture of the true nature of guild rent seeking. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112746&r= |
| By: | Ceyhun Gürkan (Ankara Üniversitesi) |
| Date: | 2021–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03414839&r= |
| By: | Enrietti, Aldo; Geuna,Aldo; Patrucco,Pier Paolo (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | In questo articolo discutiamo l’evoluzione storica (1894-2020) dell’industria automobilistica italiana attraverso la banca dati AUTOITA. La banca dati AUTOITA rappresenta il primo e ad oggi unico dataset che copre l’intero periodo storico dell’industria in Italia, nonché la prima banca dati che permette comparazioni internazionali in quanto standardizzata sui modelli dei principali paesi produttori di auto. In primo luogo presentiamo una sintetica discussione qualitativa dell’evoluzione dell’industria automobilistica in Italia a partire dalla fondazione della Bernardi & Miari Giusti a Padova nel 1894 fino ai primi due decenni del XXI secolo. Successivamente, descriviamo la metodologia che abbiamo seguito per la costruzione della banca data AUTOITA e le sue caratteristiche. Il paper propone anche un’analisi statistica descrittiva dell’evoluzione dell’industria automobilistica italiana dal 1894 al 2020 come un primo esempio dell’utilizzo della banca dati. Infine il paper approfondisce l’analisi attraverso un focus sulla sfida fra Torino e Milano, e discutiamo una serie di ragione che potrebbero spiegare la preminenza avuta da Torino dopo che fino al 1899 l’industria automobilistica si era sviluppata più vivacemente a Milano. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:202118&r= |
| By: | Vats, Nishant; Kundu, Shohini |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the transmission of non-capital shocks through banking networks. We develop a methodology to construct non-capital (idiosyncratic) shocks, using labor productivity shocks to large firms. We document a change in the relationship between foreign idiosyncratic shocks and domestic economic growth between 1978 and 2000. Contemporaneous changes in banking integration drive this phenomenon as geographically diversified banks divert funds away from economies experiencing negative shocks towards other unaffected economies. Our GIV estimates suggest that a 1% increase in bank loan supply is associated with a 0.05-0.26 pp increase in economic growth. Lastly, this can potentially explain the Great Moderation. JEL Classification: E32, E44, F36, G21, G28, O47, R11, R12 |
| Keywords: | credit, cross-border spillovers, deregulation, financial intermediation, growth, idiosyncratic shocks, the Great Moderation |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:2021128&r= |
| By: | Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing |
| Abstract: | Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output driven by domestic demand had only recovered to 59% of pre-pandemic levels and that of real personal consumption only to 76%. The difference is mainly accounted for by unexpected reductions in frictions in the container shipping market. |
| Keywords: | Merchandise trade,container,shipping,manufacturing,consumption,COVID-19,supply chain,recession,recovery,globalization |
| JEL: | E32 E37 F47 F62 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:659&r= |
| By: | César Ducruet (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris); Hidekazu Itoh (Kwansei Gakuin University); Justin Berli (GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris) |
| Abstract: | While the spatial and functional relationships between ports and cities have been put in question in the last decades, the continued importance of urbanization and maritime transport in global socio-economic development motivates deeper research on their interaction. The global trade network is often studied at the country level and all transport modes included, concluding that distance remains a strong counterforce to exchange. This article wishes to detect whether the global container shipping network obeys similar properties at the city level. More than 2 million inter-port vessel movements between 1977 and 2016 are assigned to about 9000 ports and 4600 cities to run a gravity model on two different network topologies. Gravitational properties are found, as larger cities connect more with each other but less at distance. The degree of distance effects negatively expanded in 40 years, confirming the "puzzling" or reinforcing effect of distance, yet it varies greatly depending on node aggregation and network topology. We conclude that ports and cities continue to share important interdependencies, but these often rest on a detrimental physical transformation. A discussion is proposed about the underlying operational and theoretical mechanisms at stake. Keywords container shipping; gravity model; maritime trade; port cities; spatial interaction; world city networks. |
| Keywords: | globalization,container shipping,complex networks,ACL,PARIS team,world city networks,urban systems,spatial interaction,port cities,maritime trade,gravity model,graph theory |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02588449&r= |